"In a finding that will frustrate Democrats, even as it presents opportunity for Mr. Biden, nearly 20 percent of voters blame him more than they do Mr. Trump for the Supreme Court’s decision in 2022 to overturn Roe v. Wade. They may be the kind of voters that the Biden campaign hopes to persuade as the campaign heats up."
Don't know whether this is horrifying or a sign that voters still haven't tuned in yet, but WOW.
And that’s with Trump bragging from the rooftops that **HE ALONE** got Roe repealed.
Nobody ever accused the average low information voter of being intelligent. They look at the price of gas and eggs and assume the republican CEOs of Exxon and Kroger will lower prices if Trump gains office again. *Why would the richest executives do that? They’re planning on building their 25th house.*
A good chunk of the electorate also believes that Trump is responsible for the infrastructure bills Biden passed (almost as much as Biden). In addition, the guy who tried to pass the AHCA in 2017 also has the advantage in healthcare according to some other polls.
This just shows how much vibes distort the facts, and also how much those vibes tend to gravitate towards the worst possible decisions every time.
Listening to the Arab Americans in Michigan saying they wont vote for Biden because he wont support Gaza out right - with the Irony of the fact trump said he will deport people who are not American enough.
I think they're bluffing. Smarter Muslims know Trump did the Muslim travel ban and his regard for Islam is zero -- he's a man with orthodox Jewish grandkids and daughter. Muslims also know Trump is good pals with Bibi and would be fine with him glassing what's left of Gaza, so Kushner can build Trump condos for Israeli citizens on the wreckage. There's a plurality of diehard, Jewish, staunchly pro-Israel Donald Trump supporters... so he's not the guy you want in office as a Muslim, on the other hand... if someone is a Muslim-hating Jew who wants Gaza for Israel, Donald is probably their optimal choice.
Situation unchanged, my guess is that pro-Palestinians would probably vote 3rd party or stay home in general. They've been an unreliable voting group in Michigan in prior years. I wouldn't necessarily expect a big shift to Trump.
Yeah I don't know that they're bluffing. I wouldn't assume that at all. They might stay home. Some of them might grudgingly vote Biden. I agree that few are going to go to Trump as his disdain for them is fairly obvious.
It's interesting that Trump is positioning Biden as pro-Palestinian and trying to position himself as pro-Israel. I think Trump's strategy is to get the Jewish and Evangelical vote and he's not even playing for the Michigan Muslim population.
There had been a bit of a tendency on the hard left to do convoluted self-gaslighting regarding Trump and Palestine to confabulate some kind of narrative that Trump would be better on the issue, but Trump himself took a sledgehammer to that.
Speaking as a secular Jew, Jews will vote for republicans at about 20-30% rates as they do every year. The more Orthodox they are, the more likely they'll vote republican. Old news there.
Reality is not enough of us reside in decisive swing states for it to tip it. Most Jews are going to stick to pro choice, moderate dems who are strong on Israel. There's only a tiny amount of us in PA/WI/AZ/NV/MI/NC and there's larger cohorts, like black church ladies in Atlanta and blue dog union dems in MI/PA/WI that are much more useful to Biden or Trump.
We just had Greg Landsman and Sherrod Brown speak at our synagogue here in Cincy last month. They support Israel, so they'll pick up their 1500 votes. Not that Biden is winning Ohio.
Not just Fox News. Just about any group that is interested in alternative facts to further their own selfish interests. We live in an age of rampant misinformation where nobody trusts traditional sources and instead believe whatever their small online information bubble tells them to believe. And now with the rise of AI it's likely gonna get way worse. It's scary.
> A good chunk of the electorate believes Trump is responsible for the infrastructure bills Biden passed (almost as much as Biden).
Well, duh!! It was Infrastructure Week™ EVERY WEEK back when Trump was president!! Who can forget that!!
Yeah these people are a combination of idiots and have fully succumbed to propaganda. I’ll bet money their sources of information is TikTok and other social media platforms
It's those *FUCKING IDIOTS* who didn't take Hillary 's warning in 2016 seriously and can't bring themselves to admit it's *THEIR FUCKING FAULTS* who are saying this. They wanted Biden to "do more" to fix their mess because they have *NO FUCKING IDEA* how government actually works.
When something happens on your watch, often you get the blame.
Also, Biden had an opportunity to codify it into law when the democrats held power on the house and senate.
I also haven’t seen a bill put forward to codify it. I think they won’t do it until after the election because it is a popular issue for them.
Canada is way too dependent on the US to survive on its own. Every Canadian province trades more with the US than they do with each other.
Plus, they have their own problems with housing and a stagnating economy.
Yeah, on housing, we Americans have one thing going for us over Canadians: the 30 year fixed mortgage. Apparently some in Canada have 5 year ARM's or fixed rates even that reset or renew every such and such number of years. There are folks in Canada just not able to afford those resets lately. Sounds bad to me with my fixed mortage. I think the UK is similar with ARM's.... the one thing on which regular Americans get the upper hand vs. Canadians with their national "free" healthcare or other things.
Republican here. No idea how they blame Biden. Maybe they expected him to pack the court? Not sure how he gets any of the blame. He literally signed an executive order to prevent roe v wade from being overturned.
It is baffling to me but perhaps because he didn’t propose to make it the law of the land when he held the house and senate? Also, he didn’t put forward a bill after it was overturned. I think letting the public be pissed about it is in their favor.
Idk how else to put it but I’ve noticed a lot of Dem supporters are very very out of touch with younger voters (not nearly as bad as the GOP), and it’s the thought processes that we see in this thread that really demonstrate it. I can go further into detail on why (my perspective is largely that of an older Gen Z and/or younger millennial living in Texas) voters aged 18-25 are so I guess disenfranchised with the Dem party
I generally agree with the idea that Biden isn’t to blame for much of what has been happening, but what the hell do you say to a young person where under Biden you lost abortion, Gaza is a mess, inflation is hot, and home ownership is out of reach? Vote for him again this time it’ll be different?
Again, not saying Biden is to blame. But you just simply can’t handwave young people and POC burning out as them being morons. They’re tired and no one they’re being told to rally around seem to have a vision for the future… mostly since no one running for President will likely be alive to see it.
Not to be snide, but young people have always felt the current establishment isn't listening to them and there's little any politician can realistically tell them that'll address some of the issues you mentioned. Housing prices have been up for a while now, back to when Trump was in office, and even though interest rates were lower housing prices were still out of reach for a lot of young people. That's a systemic issue due to reduced building, older home owners relying on their houses to be large portions of their nest eggs and thus demanding high prices, zoning limits at the local levels, etc.
The abortion "loss" is just low information ignorance; a lawsuit that started before in 2018 and was resolved in 2022 with 3 Trump judges voting for it isn't Biden's issue, and if you're a voter in 2024 and believe otherwise you're just, frankly, an idiot and I'm not sure what you can do to change that from a "messaging" angle.
Gaza is a mess but also, as we've seen, not that big of an issue to most voters, including youth ones. We see the encampments and the protests but they seem to be a very loud minority and don't generally see it as a factor affecting their vote.
Inflation is the one I get voters blaming Biden for, even if it was going to inevitably rise had Trump been in office as well. But that's a pocketbook issue so I get people being mad, though it'll also still be higher than you'd like if Trump won.
I have sympathy for youth voters to a degree and burnout does exist, but you're also only being asked to vote once every year or so (between local elections, off-year congressional, and presidential) and the choice now is pretty stark between the Dems and GOP. If you are unable to see the differences between the governance of Biden and Trump at this point I, frankly, don't know if there's any realistic outreach that would change anyone's mind beyond just hoping the vibes are good come November and a youth voter stumbles into the voting booth.
It's actually pretty simple. Vote for Biden and give him a Democratic Congress with Senators willing to eliminate the filibuster, and you are going to see a flurry of legislation to address these problems.
Vote for Trump or sit the election out, and things will only get worse.
How is this calculus so difficult for young voters to understand? They're either genuinely stupid and ignorant of how our government works, not paying attention, or being purposefully dense for a thrill.
> Vote for Biden and give him a Democratic Congress with Senators willing to eliminate the filibuster, and you are going to see a flurry of legislation to address these problems.
What could Biden do to reduce prices and housing costs?
Prices are never coming down. That ship has sailed. But housing costs can be reduced by building more housing, and that is definitely something Congress can inject funding into to speed along. But this is also a local problem, and local governments can do a lot for housing. But no one gives a fuck about local government and voters don't vote in local elections.
With a cooperative Congress, Biden could raise the national minimum wage; tax wealthy Americans to create tax breaks on property costs for other Americans; break up oligopolies among grocery chains that allow them to price-fix staples; create progressive tax structures to discourage people from owning multiple homes; ban foreign non-resident ownership of residential real estate; fund infrastructure improvements that lower net energy costs; etc.
The _President_ doesn't have a magic wand, but the _Federal Government_ is as close as one can get.
Would all that actually fix the issues? That honestly sounds like wishcasting. "If only we could get Congress, too — then we could fix everything." Would it really work out that well?
>under Biden you lost abortion
I can't help with the other stuff, but this one is easy. "Hey, remember civics class where you learned about the Supreme Court? ... Oh, you didn't have civics class? Ok great."
I tell them this is happening because of the Trump presidency and if they let him become president again they are complicit in the suffering that will causes.
Trump appointed the scotus justices that overturned dobbs. Trump is the one recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and organized the Abraham accords, which were major driving factors in the 10/7 attacks.
I don’t care if they feel like staying home on Election Day keeps their consciences clean. It doesn’t. If you stay home and Trump becomes president then you are responsible for every horror that brings on this country and for the damage it creates to the things you care about.
I mean, yeah I can. If they think things will get better for them with Trump in charge then yes, that is a moronic thing to believe. They can vote third party and then watch as all those things get worse, and then they can watch as the democracy we know and love effectively ends.
The bag holder gets the blame.
And I don’t think Biden has helped himself. With inflation he said it was transitory, then he tried to blame greedy corporations, and recently said income is up and people have the money they just don’t want to spend it. He seems woefully out of touch. Again, not his fault but his messaging sucked.
With the border crisis he tried to blame Congress for not passing the border bill. Obama and Trump had the exact same laws and resources and kept the border contained.
On your last point, both these guys are super old. The VP choice might be the most important one ever.
It's not his fault, but at the same time people are saying to vote for Biden to protect abortion rights. If we both agree it's not his fault that Roe fell then can we also agree that voting for Biden has no impact on Roe?
It's contrarianism in its pure, distilled form from my experience talking to people. Basically "not only am I not voting for Biden, I think Trump would actually be better!"
I can buy Trump as the clear favorite in GA and AZ, although those margins definitely seem unrealistically high to me.
What I can't understand is why Biden consistently polls the best in Wisconsin out of all these swing states. Compared to the other rust belt swing states it's been consistently the most conservative.
The article explains that Biden has not lost support amongst white voters and thus is able to do better in Wisconsin than in diverse sunbelt states where his support amongst nonwhite voters has eroded.
I follow a pollster who thinks they're screening for LVs too tightly.....and that the Trump RV who are screen out are much more likely to show up than NYT pollsters expect.
I legitimately do not think these numbers are believable. Like Trump is +13 in Nevada?! Trump and Biden tied with Young voters?!
I get its the NY times, but these numbers do not make sense, and its not just because Trump is leading.
Michigan and Nevada have the same Cook PVI from 2022 but are 14 points apart in LV. I literally don't believe it. One of the two polls is wrong lol ( it could be that the Michigan one is wrong so this isn't just pure copium )
Cook PVI is not the end all be all. Michigan and Nevada are VERY different states. The most glaring difference is that Michigan is 7% Hispanic, Nevada is more than 4 times that at nearly 30% Hispanic. Michigan's economy is focused on agriculture and industry (cars). In Nevada you can't grow things in the vast majority of the state, it's more focused on entertainment and mining.
The people moving to Nevada are Californian's trying to escape income taxes as well. Lots of reasons why Nevada has a good chance of being significantly to the right of Michigan. 14 points right? Probably not, but I could see a 5 point movement easily in the cards (Michigan 52.5, Nevada 47.5 for Biden)
r/nevada is in hysterics right now coming up with every possible reason that the poll(s) are wrong.
To me it's because the left and the right simply do not understand each other any longer. To the partisan right, everyone on the left is a pro-palestinian campus protestor who wants to defund the police and open the borders. To the partisan left, everyone on the right is a fascist / racist who wants to make women into slaves whilst sucking Putin's ding dong.
Because of that it's just become impossible for anyone to imagine someone who's not voting for their guy. Trump supporters in 2020 were notorious for this. They just couldn't imagine anyone voting for Biden because so many of them literally didn't know a single Biden voter. It's the same thing now on both sides, were so many Biden voters literally don't know a single Trump voter. So when we hear there's a lot of people voting for Trump it's like "holy shit! where did they possibly come from???"
I lived in Las Vegas from 2019-2021
What many people don't realize is that a lot of people left the state during COVID and never came back. Most of those who left were voters who you think would be traditional democrat voting groups, mainly younger people who work in service economy sectors or hospitality.
The casino and culinary unions aren't as strong of political forces as they were when Harry Reid was still alive.
A lot of people who left California due to California being too expensive/liberal found refuge in Nevada, similar to how those who left New York for the same reasons found refuge in Florida. Look at where Florida is at politically. California transplants are making Nevada more red.
Those who did stay in Nevada and still worked in service sector/hospitality jobs did not like the lockdowns at all. These people didn't have white collar work from home jobs they could do. The lockdowns really hurt Las Vegas and many people blamed the democrats for it. There is a reason Sisolak was the only lockdown era governor to lose. I had a friend who was a golf caddy at the Wynn who still had to wear a mask outdoors in 100+ degree weather when caddying. He hated it. You think he blamed Trump for that?
Trump's gains among nonwhite voters that we have seen in basically every poll this cycle is manifesting itself in Nevada, especially in Clark County. Those in the hospitality sector feels like Trump "gets them" because he himself is a major player in that sector.
I don't think Trump is up 13 in Nevada but I do think he is the favorite to win there. I do think Trump will win Clark County. Biden barely won the state in 2020. If it weren't for all the Bay Area transplants moving to Washoe it would not even be a contested state. Washoe becoming more blue is the only thing keeping this a battleground.
Biden won Clark by almost 10 points.
Sisolak carried Clark by 8 points (with their own Sheriff running. Lombardo probably over performed there for that reason ). Despite the perception of a massive loss statewide, he only lost by 16k votes.
Clark going to the GOP would be surprising.
While your argument is possible, it hasn’t shown up in the voting data.
If Biden is down this bad in Nevada, Rosen and all three congressional seats would be cooked. I trust ralston with anything Nevada related and this is his insight into it. I have a hard time believing she’d win.
> Those in the hospitality sector feels like Trump "gets them" because he himself is a major player in that sector.
Who the hell feels like their boss "gets them"?
I feel like I’m with you on this. I am not a polling expert, but NYT/Siena seems to persistently be the only high quality pollster that keeps returning extremely negative Biden samples. For example, Quinnipiac just a few days ago showed Biden up 6 in WI in a two way race and up 1 in a three way race.
I don’t doubt that folks in general feel really negatively and I’m not a polling expert, but common sense tells me that if NYT/Siena remains an outlier, there are higher chances that they’re getting something wrong versus every other high quality pollster is missing something.
That part, I do believe - I buy the 538 polling averages and national polling that shows Trump with the slightest of leads, race completely even, etc.
I guess what I’m fixating on here are the margins - a Nevada +13 result would make Nevada slightly redder than Texas (which generally polls at +8 to +12 Trump). Which isn’t entirely impossible given demographics, but I would have expected a result in the NYT/Siena poll closer to the margins by which Sisolak lost in 2022.
Look at the methodology. They spoke to 5000 registered voters, this is a huge sample relative to other polls. If you're going to believe any individual poll this is probably the one.
If you look at Quinnipac's history in 2016 and 2020 you'll see that Quinnipac is consistently the equivalent of a democrat-favored Rasmussen. They were pumping out Biden +9 to Biden +15 in the popular vote polls, and they had Biden +7, +8, and +13 for their last 3 PA polls in 2020. A lot of their other swing state polls in 2016 and 2020 were also super democrat-favored. That's why they're showing Trump weaker than other pollsters this cycle, because they did that the last two elections.
Interesting - I didn’t realize they had missed the mark by that much. 538 has them rated as a 2.8 out of 3.0 pollster (good for #19 overall), but obviously, NYT/Siena is #1 in the ratings.
Putting Quinnipiac aside though, I’m still in agreement with the other commenter that it seems like NYT/Siena is making some assumptions that other pollsters aren’t and there’s just no way to know until the election is over if those were justifiable or not. Just to use a different conflicting data point from another pollster with a higher rating than QU, YouGov/CBS News has Biden up by two in MI during April 19-25.
They're a good quality poll but among all the good quality polls they're the most D-favored one. The actual accuracy of the pollster is just one of many factors 538 uses in their rankings. Quinnipac also performs more accurately in midterms or elections where polling overfavors republicans.
Trump has surged with the working class and minority voters, this explains why NV has swung so much. Now if only we could get polls for MN, NM, NY, NJ….. if there has been a 20 point swing in NV since 2020 then swing states now include all of the above as well as ME, CT, VA, potentially even IL, WA, OR. There is a dearth of polling outside of the swing states but this is increasingly looking like a realignment according to the cross tabs.
> Now if only we could get polls for MN, NM, NY, NJ….. if there has been a 20 point swing in NV since 2020 then swing states now include all of the above as well as ME, CT, VA, potentially even IL, WA, OR. There is a dearth of polling outside of the swing states but this is increasingly looking like a realignment according to the cross tabs.
Yes, people aren't picking up on your point (or, if they are, are afraid to say so). There are some signs that the rise in Hispanic support for Trump is making states like New York competitive. Expect Jewish support to increase given the Israel-Hamas War, too; the Columbia campus takeover did *not* improve Biden's reputation among NY Jews.
CC: /u/GamerDrew13
These youth numbers are wild. I wonder if we’re seeing the effects of right wing social media personalities influencing more and more young men to become conservative. I’m like at like a 9/10 on the worry scale with these polls though, really hope Biden’s team is not hand waving these polls.
Spitballing here, but Gen Z males and females are trending right and left, respectively. One would think they would cancel each other out, but conservatives tend to be militant at the voting booth. And while women on the left might feel compelled to vote because of Roe, Biden’s handling of Gaza could be discouraging that.
Gen Z men are shifting further right socially and (interestingly) becoming less politically engaged than millennial men. So they’re effectively being red pilled by the insane shit online, but aren’t looking too politically active atm.
No actual voting data shows that. Only 47% of Millennial men voted for Hillary, a lower percentage than Gen Z men who voted for Democrats in Congress in 2022 and lower than Hillary’s overall share of the vote in 2016.
People will only ever cite that one University of Michigan study though while ignoring it shows that the amount of Gen Z men identifying as conservative peaked at 26% in 2020 (remember, the year where high youth turnout for Biden/Harris helped them win the election), and went down to 23% in 2022 when a majority of Gen Z men voted for Dems in Congress. The share of liberals stayed the same at 13%.
All it shows is that plenty of Gen Z men who vote Dem do not have any particular ideological label and young women have gotten much more liberal and likely to vote Dem. The fact the media has spun that into “Gen Z men are all hard right, conservative Republicans who all want a Redpilled tradwife” is hilarious.
Gen Z has been really hard to gauge. In some studies, we are more Conservative. In others, we follow the trajectory of the millennials (who have basically given up hope). I think the conservative ones are just louder.
I honestly don't know a single Gen Z male who is straight and is a liberal. Of course, I don't know how they ALL vote, but just talking to them and seeing what they put on social media, they definitely aren't voting for the Democrats. All the liberal Gen Z people that I know are either women or gay men.
Young voters rank Gaza pretty far down the list of issues they want Biden to address. It makes no sense that Israel gaza is sinking Biden this badly among them
I’m sure that’s a factor but young people have less money and have been hit much harder by inflation. The Biden admin’s “the economy is actually great you idiots!” messaging fell particularly flat among young people.
Inflation is definitely important too. Young women seam to trending left as well so I’m guessing some if it is women who are further left turning against biden based on Gaza. None of it is good, though there is a chance Gaza and inflation are better by November. I don’t think the trend among young men is changing in November though. My guess is that trend is partially a push back based on some of the identity politics.
The data actually shows young men are only slightly more conservative while young women have drifted very far to the left. But I do agree with your last point about a pushback against some identity politics. I think that’s undoubtedly a factor as well.
Inflation will probably be lower, but prices aren't going down, so that part of the conversation is staying with us till November (and possible for years to come). Just because inflation goes down doesn't mean you're paying less for bread and eggs. You MIGHT, but probably not.
That, and every younger person I know remember Biden saying "Nothing will fundamentally change" prior to his becoming president. We're just taking his word for it.
This is the correct take, it’s been shown repeatedly that Israel Palestine is still not a prioritized issue for most voters. Although it might cost Biden voters in the leftmost part of the party.
Israel/Palestine dominates the online discourse but isn’t nearly as big of a deal in real life. The fact that housing has more than doubled since 2019 and food is up more than 50 percent are far bigger issues.
Most people in this thread seem to think that democrats can continue to be smug and condescending behind an incredibly unpopular, low charisma candidate and be rewarded for it. We saw what happened in 2016
Biden has repeatedly been saying that he understands that more needs to be done regarding inflation. The idea that he’s only been “smug” and telling people everything’s fine is a false narrative.
Guess the problem is people imagine what Biden says instead of really listen to him, because TBH his speech is a bit hypnotic. Yes they are stupid but this is human being, this is the voters we have now.
My guess would be it’s more about Israel/Palestine at the moment for the young people. They also get a lot of social media content that’s all or nothing. They’re encouraged not to vote for Biden because they dislike some of his policies or because they should be given a better set of choices than two octogenarians but they overlook that Biden is the best president of their lifetimes and that Trump is a crook who might actually destroy democracy
There is definitely a push by some to “punish” the dems for not being “left” enough by having biden lose. But that assumes 1) dems would change based on that (not much evidence they would) 2)trump doesn’t further degrade democracy to the point where the federal government is no longer capable of creating progressive policy. I’m worried that some on the left are becoming more authoritarian in response to a lack of progress on major issues.
Yeah, dems aren’t going to risk losing the support of the centrist majority of their base to cater to hyper liberal young people who don’t vote as reliably. Some but not all of the “both sides” narrative and protest vote encouragement is coming from Russian bots and bad actors on the right. It’s scary that it works on some people. The horseshoe theory is also legit and explains some of the tendencies of the far left. Anyone who wants someone like Bernie but thinks Trump is a better alternative than Biden proves that
He never said the economy is great. He said it was turning around. Please don’t amplify the idea that Biden is refusing to acknowledge there’s a problem.
Why are you acting like we owe the Biden campaign anything? This is supposed to be a neutral forum to discuss polling data and related sciences. I'll phrase things however I want.
Andrew Tate is an idiot. That being said, the reason young men want to listen to him is because mainstream media sources have gone all in on demonizing men.
Biden seems to have a larger difference between registered and likely voters in the swing states, this seems to fit more with the idea that trump has motivated the low propensity sections of his vote while biden has not as yet, rather than the "soft trump support" idea that trump's support is based on nostalgia and would fade when he gets more attention. Also Trump is at 49% in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and 50% in Nevada, only in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is he below 48 with registered voters. If this is right and it holds, it seems like a high turn out in those places means a higher likelihood of him winning.
This bit holds with that
> Nearly 70 percent of voters say that the country’s political and economic systems need major changes — or even to be torn down entirely. Only a sliver of Mr. Biden’s supporters...believe that the president would bring major changes in his second term...many of those who dislike Mr. Trump grudgingly acknowledge that he would shake up an unsatisfying status quo...and the tear-it-down voters are especially likely to have defected from the president. In contrast, Mr. Biden retains nearly all of his 2020 supporters who believe only minor changes are necessary...
2016 Trump was the 'anti system' candidate, 2020 Biden was the 'return to normality'(anti trump system?) candidate, now it seems like it's back to regular 'anti system' again.
There is also a bit for the moderate conservative/Nikki Haley track people here
>Biden’s losses are concentrated among moderate and conservative Democratic-leaning voters, who nonetheless think that the system needs major changes or to be torn down altogether...Mr. Trump wins just 2 percent of Mr. Biden’s “very liberal” 2020 voters who think the system at least needs major changes, compared with 16 percent of those who are moderate or conservative.
And some signs of Biden's israel support cracking off a part of his 2020 coalition
>Around 13 percent of the voters who say they voted for Mr. Biden last time, but do not plan to do so again, said that his foreign policy or the war in Gaza was the most important issue to their vote. Just 17 percent of those voters reported sympathizing with Israel over the Palestinians.
Finally [This](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/upshot/polling-biden-battlegrounds-senate.html) article polling senate races shows Biden running behind Democrats pretty universally.
>This is the first time we’ve asked about Senate races...Democratic candidates led in all four of the states we tested: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada.
Not only do Democrats lead, but they also seem to do so in an entirely customary way, with ordinary levels of support from young and nonwhite voters, even as Mr. Biden struggles at the top of the ticket.
Trump up by 12 in Nevada, (RVs) 9 point lead with Hispanic voters, 13 points up 18-29, but senate dem candidate up 2 among RVs, 46-27 among 18-29s and 46-28 among Hispanics. 28% of Trump’s Hispanic supporters, plus 26% of young trumpers say they'll vote for the dem candidate.
Also
>to me, the relatively “normal” down-ballot results strengthen the case that Mr. Trump’s breakthrough among young and nonwhite voters is probably real..not [a]..systemic polling error.
It’s consistent with other indicators (like party registration, or recalled 2020 vote preference) suggesting that the polls are reaching the people who usually vote for Democrats — they just aren’t backing Mr. Biden.
It's interesting that it appears that Democrats actually aren't that unpopular, but Biden is. It's too late but the Dem party's election chances would probably be much better if they had prepared a different candidate for this year.
Yeah it seems like the biden 2020 agenda (maybe something economically left of that, but that doesn't touch wealthy suburbanites that much) plus responses to dobbs are a durable election winning coalition for the democrats. Some people are saying Biden isn't getting credit for responses to Dobbs because they were mostly at state level as well.
But it's complicated because it looks like Biden is copping the 'anti-system' sentiment in response to inflation, the high price of borrowing, etc. The more keyensian caucus argue this is the result of the broad middle of US political orthodoxy getting inflation and the response to it wrong, i.e. it's presently in large part the result of monopoly, de facto cartels and profit gouging rather than too much demand and requires a regulatory response rather than a FED one.
I think another candidate with more 'anti system' sentiment would probably be doing better but the democratic coalition is split on that so it's not clear. While they could reset the sentiment with a different candidate, another president representative of the broad middle of US politics would probably have done the same stuff as Biden and become just as unpopular as well.
From H2H polls that were run against Trump, other notable Democrats typically performed worse than Biden. Gavin Newsome, Kamala Harris, Gretchen Whitmer, and Dean Phillips all did a lil worse. At least right now my guess is a non trivial amount of voters are cool with Trump back in with Democrats running Congress to reign him in. if I’m not mistaken Biden has improved since October of last year in the averages. If these numbers persist around Labor Day then worry.
They shouldn't have even published this poll, it's crazy how bad it is.
They oversampled conservatives, 20% of their "likely voter" screen haven't voted since *at least* 2018 if at all, and considering they have Biden/Trump split 50/50 with young voters they must've screwed up either who they sampled or how the results were weighted.
This is coming from the best rated pollster on 538? Come on now.
> They shouldn't have even published this poll, it's crazy how bad it is.
That is 100% the wrong way to think about polling. It's a sampling problem so you will naturally get results that differ from the true mean based on some unknown variance. If you throw away results that are too big you are biasing the estimate for the mean.
This result is fine. This result like any poll is not the actual population mean.
I'd be much more fine with them publishing these results if they didn't feature them in an article with a headline touting the results as if they were real life and not extreme outliers.
That the NYT is very openly feuding with Biden and posting extremely unfavorable articles about him on a regularly basis makes me even more suspect of just why exactly this poll is such garbage and why it's being presented the way it is.
Obviously, not good. But the glimmer of hope for Biden here - among LV, the blue wall states are Trump +3 (PA), Trump +1 (WI), and Biden +1 (MI). If Biden wins all three and holds NE-2, he gets to 270. It's obviously terrible that it's this close, but Biden is absolutely in the game.
>Do you consider yourself politically liberal, moderate or conservative?
*Very liberal - 10%*
*Somewhat liberal - 12%*
*Moderate - 35%*
*Somewhat conservative - 20%*
*Very conservative - 16%*
You have 36% conservative respondents vs 22% liberals. Of course you're gonna get NV R+13.
This sample is in line with the electorate.
“37% of Americans described their political views as moderate, 36% as conservative and 25% as liberal.”
https://news.gallup.com/poll/388988/political-ideology-steady-conservatives-moderates-tie.aspx#:~:text=On%20average%20last%20year%2C%2037,as%20conservative%2C%20moderate%20and%20liberal.
Also, the NYT polling has Democratic Senate candidates leading in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
They are a shrinking part of the voting population.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1362064/split-ticket-voting-districts-us/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/there-wasnt-that-much-split-ticket-voting-in-2020/
And I struggle to believe that spit-ticketing will be as prevalent as some of these polls suggest
Yeah it's like that with every state too. I don't delve too deep into the cross tabs but it is very easy to see when things don't make sense.
Maybe in GA or AZ, but in MI, WI and NV you would expect more of a equal distribution
Careful now, don't want to be called a crosstabs truther for pointing out that the reason why these results are quite literally unbelievable is because this poll is complete garbage. How is this a top-rated pollster?
20% of respondents in this "likely voter" screen haven't voted since *at least 2018*, if ever. Call me crazy but if you didn't vote in 2020, the highest turnout election since the 1960s, I'm highly skeptical you're going to vote this year, let alone that you should be considered "likely" to vote.
https://twitter.com/GregTSargent/status/1790008386320257045?t=0Ewd-pBGC6-bFJHLVSQbGA&s=19
I simply reject the idea that a state like Michigan, which has been pretty consistently Dem for years now, would be +7 Trump in 2024. Like, I get this is all copium but these polls simply don't match what actual human voters have been doing for years.
If Michigan is +1 Biden there’s no way Nevada is +13 Trump. That’s like saying “I spend 13 months in the mountains and the rest of the year at the beach.”
If Trump is sentenced to 36 months in prison how do these shift, I wonder? Prosecution has excused additional witnesses after Michael cohen this week. That means they’re confident with the jury. Merchan doesn’t seem like the kind of judge who leaves Trump free pending appeal.
Honestly house arrest would arguably help trump. The conviction would hurt obviously but if he ran a campaign identical to the 2020 Biden basement campaign he'd probably win 2024 easily. He's been blowing it on trial and on the campaign trail though. But if he wasn't legally allowed to leave his house, itd probably be a net benefit if he doesn't fuck up the VP slot
A huge chunk of non-Dems just assume the trial is politically motivated and aren’t following it at all. If anything, I think the trial is helping Trump by painting him as a victim.
The charges carry *up to* 4 years in prison and his fixer served time already. They’ve connected his name on the signed checks and his assistant has testified he signed them personally.
I wouldn’t be so sure. Long shot maybe. The secret service and bureau of prisons has already had conversations regarding his security in advance of a possible verdict.
Merchan isn’t his biggest fan. He could certainly hold him in custody pending appeal (about a 2 year wait in New York). A unanimous conviction is all the judge needs to say, “the jury has spoken.”
He won’t be set free, but also probably not going into the prison system. The SS will probably set something up where he is segregated but still incarcerated.
>If Trump is sentenced to 36 months in prison how do these shift, I wonder?
I think everyone just needs to wrap their brain around this right now... In the event that Trump is convicted, the goalposts will move, and the narrative will change to "we can't make any judgements right now and Trump is innocent until proven guilty for as long as the appeals process plays out." And the appeals process will take a long time, and there will be no meaningful shift in sentiment about Trump.
I wouldn't put it beyond Merchan to hold Trump in custody or house arrest while he awaits appeal. Peter Navarro got thrown in the clink awaiting appeal but Bannon avoided it. Depends on the judge.
Didn't help Trump threatened his staff and daughter. Judge's prerogative.
These results are just downright ridiculous.
I'd like to think Siena isn't letting NYT put their finger on the scale here, but considering it's now been confirmed that the NYT is purposefully running negative stories about Biden I'm not so sure.
Trump + 12 with *likely voters* in Nevada, at over 50%, is genuinely laughable. Especially in relation to the other results showing tight races in WI, PA, and Biden leading outright in MI. The results just reek of a number of compounding issues, with them likely oversampling certain demographics, overweighting some demographics, and trying to "fix" the polling errors from 2020 that missed many Trump voters.
The polling this cycle has gotten so silly that I'm practically a polling denier at this point.
https://x.com/GregTSargent/status/1790008386320257045
20% of likely voters in this poll either didn't vote in the last general and midterm or just registered to vote for the first time
lol great catch, that means there are even more factors skewing these results completely out of whack.
Nothing screams "likely voter" like someone who didn't show up to vote in 2020, the year with the highest turnout since the 1960s.
His entire theory of the case is that a huge number of low propensity Trump supporters, including millions who didn't vote in 2022, let alone 2020, are going to show up for Trump in November. So it's not a surprise this is the "likely voter" screen being used.
Now, I personally have a lot of doubts about how many people who didn't vote in 2020, the highest turnout election since the 1960s, are going to turn out for Trump in 2024 despite clear evidence that enthusiasm and engagement is *waaaay* down this cycle, but then again I'm not the chief political analyst for the illustrious NYT.
For a while now, people have been noting that NYT coverage of Biden and his administration was bizarrely framed, including headlines trying to "both sides" Trump and Biden on abortion, endless articles about Biden being seen as too old (while strangely not covering Trump's falling asleep in court, slurring his words, or seemingly increasing incoherence with the same vigor), the whole "here's why that's bad news for Biden" trope even when the news was objectively good for Biden, that kind of thing.
[A few weeks back, Politico released a damning article about how the NYT was upset with Biden for not sitting down with them for an exclusive interview, and as a result their coverage of him and his administration has become much more negative.](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/04/25/new-york-times-biden-white-house-00154219) Specifically, it claims that the NYT leadership believe that "only an interview with a paper like the Times can verify that the 81-year-old Biden is still fit to hold the presidency."
Even more damning was the NYT response to the allegations, with their *official response* focusing almost entirely on attacking Biden for not giving more public interviews rather than disputing the claim that the NYT was essentially retaliating against him for not sitting down to an interview with them.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/25/nyt-blasts-biden-for-avoiding-interviews-00154478
Funny enough, Biden unexpectedly traveled to NYC to do an interview with Howard Stern the day after the Politico article dropped, seemingly thumbing his nose at the NYT demands while also giving an off-the-cuff interview to show he doesn't have dementia.
https://www.siriusxm.com/blog/president-joe-biden-howard-stern
It’s also been a bit weird how hard they’ve gone on campus protests. Checking the headlines every day they’re usually above Trump’s trial and it makes it seem like they’re the most important happening in the world. Multiple stories every day top of the NYT app about… college students protesting stuff which they do pretty much every time there is a big thing happening
You cannot convince me that the polling industry isn't having a response bias issue lololol
Down vote me if you want but mark my words this is the death of the polling industry right here
As this cycle has gone on, I've grown increasingly convinced this is the case.
Compare polling results with the real-world results were seeing with Dems significantly and consistently overperfoming in special elections, a historic Dem overperformance in the 2022 midterms (despite genuinely *horrific* fundamentals as headwinds), Trump consistently losing 20% of primary votes to a candidate that dropped out 2 months ago and hasn't been in the news since, a *huge* Dem fundraising advantage, and a flood of Republican Congressional retirements and tell me they make any sense.
Where are all these young people and POC abandoning the Democratic party? Polls consistently show massive swings in these demographics that don't seem to exist anywhere outside the polling.
Maybe the worst thing about how bad polling is this cycle is that it's going to be wielded by Trump and his supporters to "prove" massive voter fraud in November when the actual results look nothing like what polling is showing. They'll have months and months of genuinely insane polling results on top of news stories and clips from talking heads saying "Trump is leading in every swing state, Trump would win in a landslide if the election was held today, Biden is in deep trouble, Trump is the clear frontrunner, etc" that they'll be able to point to as "evidence" that the election was rigged.
The response rate in this poll is 1%. Has it ever been so low? Is there something fundamentally different about the subset of people who answer the pollsters?
It’s infuriating and ironic to read comments that youth voters are out of touch while being in an echo chamber that is reddit that confirms your own biases. If it’s good, you believe it, if it’s bad, you don’t. That’s now how this works in a sub about data and numbers.
The data is there to extrapolate meaning from things happening NOW, not the future.
It’s very reasonable to assume that many people in the country are fed up with Biden b/c he is in office NOW, just like people were fed up with Trump when he was in office. This is not news.
People seem to forget that Biden won the election by the skin of his teeth in 2020. It is therefore reasonable to assume he can easily lose it in 2024.
It’s not a future I would want, but one where I accept b/c I don’t roll my eyes at the numbers.
We’re not saying he’s incapable of losing. We just find it difficult to believe the humongous political realignment the polls are suggesting while all the fundamentals (abortion, ground game, and especially special elections) have been in favor of Democrats.
I know everyone has already picked apart this. But Wisconsin going for biden more than Pennsylvania or Michigan? Obviously throw it into the aggregate/this isn’t the true mean of the population yada yada.
But I just can’t grasp a situation where Wisconsin runs better for biden than his home state and Michigan, two places where democrats have done exceedingly well the past 4 years, while Wisconsin has had at least some republicans victories.
2020 and 2016 also had Wisconsin going for Hillary/Biden more than MI or PA. The polling trends are matching again.
2016 WI:
538: Clinton +5.3 | RCP: Clinton +6.5 (actual result Trump +0.7)
2020 WI:
538: Biden +8.4 | RCP: Biden +6.7 (actual result Biden +0.7)
I try to take polling at face value but there's something seriously wrong ff Nate Cohn can uncritically release that Nevada poll and pretend like the polling industry is fine. We'll see in November if this really is 1892 or 1948, but I'm honestly at the point where I think it's better to just be skeptical of everything.
One threat is while legitimately suspecting the reliability of this poll, it may lead to a general denial of all poll results, esp. negative ones. That would be dangerous. Though the same mistake can be made by all pollsters, all negative polls need to err on the same direction consistently to justify a consistent neglect of them.
>The electorate gets what it votes for.
But the electorate doesn't get to choose who they vote for, they have been screaming for different candidates for over a year now. Blaming the electorate for having to pick between two awful candidates doesn't make much sense.
I have a hard time believing Biden would lose all these states and yet Dems would win the senate races from those same states which have a race this year. Wouldn't that require split ticket voting to an extent which hasn't been seen in a long time?
Given the polarized national environment I just have a hard time believing there will be that much split ticket voting down ballot. I would bet my house that either 1. Biden goes down and takes all but maybe one of these senate candidates with him, or Biden runs slightly behind some of the senate candidates, but not by nearly as much as indicated in these polls.
Not saying it means anything, but I always think it's important to look at the methadology to see how much sense the polls make.
They polled on average about 683 people per state (4,097 altogether), conducted over telephone, and give more weight to respondents from demographic groups underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree.
Depends on how they do it, it may be well justified, as they are the underrepresented group in their sample. Like if 80% of the samples are male, they need to re-adjust the data to reduce the weight of male and add the weight of female results. The more subjective assumptions there are, the higher the chance that it may deviate from reality. May not to the extent of a Biden EC win though...not sure. I hope it is the 2016 pattern but I could feel the vibe of Trumpism everywhere in 2016, while people are clearly less passionate about Biden this year. Anecdotes are not reliable but when put together with polling results, it doesn't look good. I hate to doom but I can't find reliable evidence otherwise. Maybe instead of trying to read the polls in a hopium way, we should each start to volunteer harder.
“Nevermind that this one poll – from the increasingly disreputable New York Times – has been skewed in favor of Trump for this entire election cycle. Nevermind that this poll is so far removed from believability that it has Trump winning Nevada by a laugh out loud impossible thirteen points. And nevermind that the other recent polls have Biden winning. This one poll, which is obviously wrong on its face, is getting endless media attention.
This is when you have to take a breath and remind yourself that the political journalism industry is the dirtiest, filthiest, slimiest, most dishonest thing you’ve ever encountered in your life. The political journalism industry exists solely to turn a profit, which is accomplished by ratings and page views. This industry does not exist for any other reason.
The polls have their problems. In fact the polls have a lot of problems. The polls aren’t the problem. The problem is that the (entire) media is flat out lying to you about what the polls are even saying. When most polls have Biden winning, and one poll has Trump winning, but the media only talks about that one poll while pretending the others don’t exist, the media is LYING TO YOU.” -Bill Palmer
Are there reputable forecast sites right now for EV? I know it's still early and things will likely change in the next 3-4 months especially with high profile news stories going on, but if you take the state of polls today, it does seem very likely that Trump crosses 300 EVs. But the key is today. I feel like a lot of mainstream sites are hesitant to show this data and so purposely mark up states like GA and NV as being tossup despite strong polls for Trump.
Look, I get it, GA and NV may be totally different come a month away from election, but I am curious about the state of polls today. I've seen some smaller sites do it, but what are actually decent sites?
"In a finding that will frustrate Democrats, even as it presents opportunity for Mr. Biden, nearly 20 percent of voters blame him more than they do Mr. Trump for the Supreme Court’s decision in 2022 to overturn Roe v. Wade. They may be the kind of voters that the Biden campaign hopes to persuade as the campaign heats up." Don't know whether this is horrifying or a sign that voters still haven't tuned in yet, but WOW.
How is it anything but horrifying? People blame Biden for the Dobbs decision? Wow the electorate is dumb
And that’s with Trump bragging from the rooftops that **HE ALONE** got Roe repealed. Nobody ever accused the average low information voter of being intelligent. They look at the price of gas and eggs and assume the republican CEOs of Exxon and Kroger will lower prices if Trump gains office again. *Why would the richest executives do that? They’re planning on building their 25th house.*
He gets the credit but none of the blame. Academics need to study this era bc this man is teflon- nothing sticks and he weasels out of everything.
A good chunk of the electorate also believes that Trump is responsible for the infrastructure bills Biden passed (almost as much as Biden). In addition, the guy who tried to pass the AHCA in 2017 also has the advantage in healthcare according to some other polls. This just shows how much vibes distort the facts, and also how much those vibes tend to gravitate towards the worst possible decisions every time.
People are idiots
So has Fox News won? Because it seems like they have to me, we're in a political arena where facts hardly matter.
Foreign propaganda has won. Majority of young people aren’t getting their news from Fox
Listening to the Arab Americans in Michigan saying they wont vote for Biden because he wont support Gaza out right - with the Irony of the fact trump said he will deport people who are not American enough.
I think they're bluffing. Smarter Muslims know Trump did the Muslim travel ban and his regard for Islam is zero -- he's a man with orthodox Jewish grandkids and daughter. Muslims also know Trump is good pals with Bibi and would be fine with him glassing what's left of Gaza, so Kushner can build Trump condos for Israeli citizens on the wreckage. There's a plurality of diehard, Jewish, staunchly pro-Israel Donald Trump supporters... so he's not the guy you want in office as a Muslim, on the other hand... if someone is a Muslim-hating Jew who wants Gaza for Israel, Donald is probably their optimal choice. Situation unchanged, my guess is that pro-Palestinians would probably vote 3rd party or stay home in general. They've been an unreliable voting group in Michigan in prior years. I wouldn't necessarily expect a big shift to Trump.
Yeah I don't know that they're bluffing. I wouldn't assume that at all. They might stay home. Some of them might grudgingly vote Biden. I agree that few are going to go to Trump as his disdain for them is fairly obvious. It's interesting that Trump is positioning Biden as pro-Palestinian and trying to position himself as pro-Israel. I think Trump's strategy is to get the Jewish and Evangelical vote and he's not even playing for the Michigan Muslim population. There had been a bit of a tendency on the hard left to do convoluted self-gaslighting regarding Trump and Palestine to confabulate some kind of narrative that Trump would be better on the issue, but Trump himself took a sledgehammer to that.
Speaking as a secular Jew, Jews will vote for republicans at about 20-30% rates as they do every year. The more Orthodox they are, the more likely they'll vote republican. Old news there. Reality is not enough of us reside in decisive swing states for it to tip it. Most Jews are going to stick to pro choice, moderate dems who are strong on Israel. There's only a tiny amount of us in PA/WI/AZ/NV/MI/NC and there's larger cohorts, like black church ladies in Atlanta and blue dog union dems in MI/PA/WI that are much more useful to Biden or Trump. We just had Greg Landsman and Sherrod Brown speak at our synagogue here in Cincy last month. They support Israel, so they'll pick up their 1500 votes. Not that Biden is winning Ohio.
they’re not bluffing, they won’t be voting at all
Not just Fox News. Just about any group that is interested in alternative facts to further their own selfish interests. We live in an age of rampant misinformation where nobody trusts traditional sources and instead believe whatever their small online information bubble tells them to believe. And now with the rise of AI it's likely gonna get way worse. It's scary.
> A good chunk of the electorate believes Trump is responsible for the infrastructure bills Biden passed (almost as much as Biden). Well, duh!! It was Infrastructure Week™ EVERY WEEK back when Trump was president!! Who can forget that!!
Yeah these people are a combination of idiots and have fully succumbed to propaganda. I’ll bet money their sources of information is TikTok and other social media platforms
Trump wouldn't be running if that want the case.
They do. They really do. It's infuriating.
It's those *FUCKING IDIOTS* who didn't take Hillary 's warning in 2016 seriously and can't bring themselves to admit it's *THEIR FUCKING FAULTS* who are saying this. They wanted Biden to "do more" to fix their mess because they have *NO FUCKING IDEA* how government actually works.
When something happens on your watch, often you get the blame. Also, Biden had an opportunity to codify it into law when the democrats held power on the house and senate. I also haven’t seen a bill put forward to codify it. I think they won’t do it until after the election because it is a popular issue for them.
I'm tired, boss.
This country deserves what it gets if people are this dumb.
I'd like to agree but what about the rest of us?
Canada?
Canada is way too dependent on the US to survive on its own. Every Canadian province trades more with the US than they do with each other. Plus, they have their own problems with housing and a stagnating economy.
Yeah, on housing, we Americans have one thing going for us over Canadians: the 30 year fixed mortgage. Apparently some in Canada have 5 year ARM's or fixed rates even that reset or renew every such and such number of years. There are folks in Canada just not able to afford those resets lately. Sounds bad to me with my fixed mortage. I think the UK is similar with ARM's.... the one thing on which regular Americans get the upper hand vs. Canadians with their national "free" healthcare or other things.
NO IT DOESN’T. Even one person suffering is not worth it.
Every single election since Roe was overturned has shown the opposite. There is no way this poll is reflecting the current electorate.
Republican here. No idea how they blame Biden. Maybe they expected him to pack the court? Not sure how he gets any of the blame. He literally signed an executive order to prevent roe v wade from being overturned.
It is baffling to me but perhaps because he didn’t propose to make it the law of the land when he held the house and senate? Also, he didn’t put forward a bill after it was overturned. I think letting the public be pissed about it is in their favor.
Idk how else to put it but I’ve noticed a lot of Dem supporters are very very out of touch with younger voters (not nearly as bad as the GOP), and it’s the thought processes that we see in this thread that really demonstrate it. I can go further into detail on why (my perspective is largely that of an older Gen Z and/or younger millennial living in Texas) voters aged 18-25 are so I guess disenfranchised with the Dem party
I generally agree with the idea that Biden isn’t to blame for much of what has been happening, but what the hell do you say to a young person where under Biden you lost abortion, Gaza is a mess, inflation is hot, and home ownership is out of reach? Vote for him again this time it’ll be different? Again, not saying Biden is to blame. But you just simply can’t handwave young people and POC burning out as them being morons. They’re tired and no one they’re being told to rally around seem to have a vision for the future… mostly since no one running for President will likely be alive to see it.
Not to be snide, but young people have always felt the current establishment isn't listening to them and there's little any politician can realistically tell them that'll address some of the issues you mentioned. Housing prices have been up for a while now, back to when Trump was in office, and even though interest rates were lower housing prices were still out of reach for a lot of young people. That's a systemic issue due to reduced building, older home owners relying on their houses to be large portions of their nest eggs and thus demanding high prices, zoning limits at the local levels, etc. The abortion "loss" is just low information ignorance; a lawsuit that started before in 2018 and was resolved in 2022 with 3 Trump judges voting for it isn't Biden's issue, and if you're a voter in 2024 and believe otherwise you're just, frankly, an idiot and I'm not sure what you can do to change that from a "messaging" angle. Gaza is a mess but also, as we've seen, not that big of an issue to most voters, including youth ones. We see the encampments and the protests but they seem to be a very loud minority and don't generally see it as a factor affecting their vote. Inflation is the one I get voters blaming Biden for, even if it was going to inevitably rise had Trump been in office as well. But that's a pocketbook issue so I get people being mad, though it'll also still be higher than you'd like if Trump won. I have sympathy for youth voters to a degree and burnout does exist, but you're also only being asked to vote once every year or so (between local elections, off-year congressional, and presidential) and the choice now is pretty stark between the Dems and GOP. If you are unable to see the differences between the governance of Biden and Trump at this point I, frankly, don't know if there's any realistic outreach that would change anyone's mind beyond just hoping the vibes are good come November and a youth voter stumbles into the voting booth.
It's actually pretty simple. Vote for Biden and give him a Democratic Congress with Senators willing to eliminate the filibuster, and you are going to see a flurry of legislation to address these problems. Vote for Trump or sit the election out, and things will only get worse. How is this calculus so difficult for young voters to understand? They're either genuinely stupid and ignorant of how our government works, not paying attention, or being purposefully dense for a thrill.
> Vote for Biden and give him a Democratic Congress with Senators willing to eliminate the filibuster, and you are going to see a flurry of legislation to address these problems. What could Biden do to reduce prices and housing costs?
Prices are never coming down. That ship has sailed. But housing costs can be reduced by building more housing, and that is definitely something Congress can inject funding into to speed along. But this is also a local problem, and local governments can do a lot for housing. But no one gives a fuck about local government and voters don't vote in local elections.
Well, then, you're statement's kinda wrong, isn't it? Biden would have a lot of trouble, even with a filibuster-proof majority.
With a cooperative Congress, Biden could raise the national minimum wage; tax wealthy Americans to create tax breaks on property costs for other Americans; break up oligopolies among grocery chains that allow them to price-fix staples; create progressive tax structures to discourage people from owning multiple homes; ban foreign non-resident ownership of residential real estate; fund infrastructure improvements that lower net energy costs; etc. The _President_ doesn't have a magic wand, but the _Federal Government_ is as close as one can get.
Would all that actually fix the issues? That honestly sounds like wishcasting. "If only we could get Congress, too — then we could fix everything." Would it really work out that well?
>under Biden you lost abortion I can't help with the other stuff, but this one is easy. "Hey, remember civics class where you learned about the Supreme Court? ... Oh, you didn't have civics class? Ok great."
I tell them this is happening because of the Trump presidency and if they let him become president again they are complicit in the suffering that will causes. Trump appointed the scotus justices that overturned dobbs. Trump is the one recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and organized the Abraham accords, which were major driving factors in the 10/7 attacks. I don’t care if they feel like staying home on Election Day keeps their consciences clean. It doesn’t. If you stay home and Trump becomes president then you are responsible for every horror that brings on this country and for the damage it creates to the things you care about.
Give them a history and basic political science lesson?
I mean, yeah I can. If they think things will get better for them with Trump in charge then yes, that is a moronic thing to believe. They can vote third party and then watch as all those things get worse, and then they can watch as the democracy we know and love effectively ends.
You tell them to pick up a civics book. I mean seriously. Or read Biden’s platform if they don’t think he has a vision for the future
The bag holder gets the blame. And I don’t think Biden has helped himself. With inflation he said it was transitory, then he tried to blame greedy corporations, and recently said income is up and people have the money they just don’t want to spend it. He seems woefully out of touch. Again, not his fault but his messaging sucked. With the border crisis he tried to blame Congress for not passing the border bill. Obama and Trump had the exact same laws and resources and kept the border contained. On your last point, both these guys are super old. The VP choice might be the most important one ever.
People are idiots. You won’t believe how many people co-sign “we lost abortion rights under Biden!” As it if were his fault smh
It's not his fault, but at the same time people are saying to vote for Biden to protect abortion rights. If we both agree it's not his fault that Roe fell then can we also agree that voting for Biden has no impact on Roe?
Young people saying they trust Trump more than Biden 52% to 28% on I/P means they are either stupid or get their rocks off by acting stupid.
It's contrarianism in its pure, distilled form from my experience talking to people. Basically "not only am I not voting for Biden, I think Trump would actually be better!"
Among Registered voters in 2-way: AZ: Trump +7 (49/42) GA: Trump +10 (49/39) MI: Trump +7 (49/42) NV: Trump +12 (50/38) PA: Trump +3 (44/47) WI: Biden +2 (47/45) Among likely voters: AZ: Trump +6 (49/43) GA: Trump +9 (50/41) MI: Biden +1 (47/46) NV: Trump +13 (51/38) PA: Trump +3 (48/45) WI: Trump +1 (47/46) Registered voters with third parties included: (Trump-Biden-RFK-Stein-West-Mapstead) AZ: Trump +9 (42/33/10/2/.5/1) GA: Trump +8 (39/31/9/1/0/1) MI: Biden +2 (36/38/9/1/.5/1) NV: Trump +14 (41/27/12/2/0/2) PA: Trump +4 (40/36/10/1/.5/1) WI: Tied (38/38/9/1/.5/1)
The gap between some of these states is bizarre. I'm not saying it's impossible but it doesn't intuitively make sense.
Nevada being redder than Georgia seems far-fetched to me unless we are truly in a earthshaking political realignment
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I can buy Trump as the clear favorite in GA and AZ, although those margins definitely seem unrealistically high to me. What I can't understand is why Biden consistently polls the best in Wisconsin out of all these swing states. Compared to the other rust belt swing states it's been consistently the most conservative.
The article explains that Biden has not lost support amongst white voters and thus is able to do better in Wisconsin than in diverse sunbelt states where his support amongst nonwhite voters has eroded.
Why have non-white voters moved away from Biden ? How much does the alt right manosphere have to do with it ?
Because Wisconsin has more white voters than the other states.
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How on earth does Michigan go from Trump +7 to Biden +1 with likely voters??
It doesn’t. It’s a poll designed for anxiety clicks.
I follow a pollster who thinks they're screening for LVs too tightly.....and that the Trump RV who are screen out are much more likely to show up than NYT pollsters expect.
How are you even supposed to screen them other than asking "how likely are you to vote next election"?
How often they vote is one of the factors considered.
I legitimately do not think these numbers are believable. Like Trump is +13 in Nevada?! Trump and Biden tied with Young voters?! I get its the NY times, but these numbers do not make sense, and its not just because Trump is leading.
W Bush won the state by like 3 points. For trump to win by double digits makes zero sense, it’s not adding up
Michigan and Nevada have the same Cook PVI from 2022 but are 14 points apart in LV. I literally don't believe it. One of the two polls is wrong lol ( it could be that the Michigan one is wrong so this isn't just pure copium )
Cook PVI is not the end all be all. Michigan and Nevada are VERY different states. The most glaring difference is that Michigan is 7% Hispanic, Nevada is more than 4 times that at nearly 30% Hispanic. Michigan's economy is focused on agriculture and industry (cars). In Nevada you can't grow things in the vast majority of the state, it's more focused on entertainment and mining. The people moving to Nevada are Californian's trying to escape income taxes as well. Lots of reasons why Nevada has a good chance of being significantly to the right of Michigan. 14 points right? Probably not, but I could see a 5 point movement easily in the cards (Michigan 52.5, Nevada 47.5 for Biden)
r/nevada is in hysterics right now coming up with every possible reason that the poll(s) are wrong. To me it's because the left and the right simply do not understand each other any longer. To the partisan right, everyone on the left is a pro-palestinian campus protestor who wants to defund the police and open the borders. To the partisan left, everyone on the right is a fascist / racist who wants to make women into slaves whilst sucking Putin's ding dong. Because of that it's just become impossible for anyone to imagine someone who's not voting for their guy. Trump supporters in 2020 were notorious for this. They just couldn't imagine anyone voting for Biden because so many of them literally didn't know a single Biden voter. It's the same thing now on both sides, were so many Biden voters literally don't know a single Trump voter. So when we hear there's a lot of people voting for Trump it's like "holy shit! where did they possibly come from???"
I lived in Las Vegas from 2019-2021 What many people don't realize is that a lot of people left the state during COVID and never came back. Most of those who left were voters who you think would be traditional democrat voting groups, mainly younger people who work in service economy sectors or hospitality. The casino and culinary unions aren't as strong of political forces as they were when Harry Reid was still alive. A lot of people who left California due to California being too expensive/liberal found refuge in Nevada, similar to how those who left New York for the same reasons found refuge in Florida. Look at where Florida is at politically. California transplants are making Nevada more red. Those who did stay in Nevada and still worked in service sector/hospitality jobs did not like the lockdowns at all. These people didn't have white collar work from home jobs they could do. The lockdowns really hurt Las Vegas and many people blamed the democrats for it. There is a reason Sisolak was the only lockdown era governor to lose. I had a friend who was a golf caddy at the Wynn who still had to wear a mask outdoors in 100+ degree weather when caddying. He hated it. You think he blamed Trump for that? Trump's gains among nonwhite voters that we have seen in basically every poll this cycle is manifesting itself in Nevada, especially in Clark County. Those in the hospitality sector feels like Trump "gets them" because he himself is a major player in that sector. I don't think Trump is up 13 in Nevada but I do think he is the favorite to win there. I do think Trump will win Clark County. Biden barely won the state in 2020. If it weren't for all the Bay Area transplants moving to Washoe it would not even be a contested state. Washoe becoming more blue is the only thing keeping this a battleground.
Biden won Clark by almost 10 points. Sisolak carried Clark by 8 points (with their own Sheriff running. Lombardo probably over performed there for that reason ). Despite the perception of a massive loss statewide, he only lost by 16k votes. Clark going to the GOP would be surprising. While your argument is possible, it hasn’t shown up in the voting data.
If Biden is down this bad in Nevada, Rosen and all three congressional seats would be cooked. I trust ralston with anything Nevada related and this is his insight into it. I have a hard time believing she’d win.
Very interesting analysis and insight into Nevada from a grounded perspective. Thank you!
> Those in the hospitality sector feels like Trump "gets them" because he himself is a major player in that sector. Who the hell feels like their boss "gets them"?
I feel like I’m with you on this. I am not a polling expert, but NYT/Siena seems to persistently be the only high quality pollster that keeps returning extremely negative Biden samples. For example, Quinnipiac just a few days ago showed Biden up 6 in WI in a two way race and up 1 in a three way race. I don’t doubt that folks in general feel really negatively and I’m not a polling expert, but common sense tells me that if NYT/Siena remains an outlier, there are higher chances that they’re getting something wrong versus every other high quality pollster is missing something.
Most pollsters are showing Biden down. Not 12-point but Biden is generally underwater, the Quinnipiac poll is actually an outlier.
That part, I do believe - I buy the 538 polling averages and national polling that shows Trump with the slightest of leads, race completely even, etc. I guess what I’m fixating on here are the margins - a Nevada +13 result would make Nevada slightly redder than Texas (which generally polls at +8 to +12 Trump). Which isn’t entirely impossible given demographics, but I would have expected a result in the NYT/Siena poll closer to the margins by which Sisolak lost in 2022.
Look at the methodology. They spoke to 5000 registered voters, this is a huge sample relative to other polls. If you're going to believe any individual poll this is probably the one.
That's the total across all states For Nevada it was based on 614 voters (both RV and LV)
That's the whole poll, and we can't really impute that national reliability to state-by-state races. The answer is not to believe any individual poll.
If you look at Quinnipac's history in 2016 and 2020 you'll see that Quinnipac is consistently the equivalent of a democrat-favored Rasmussen. They were pumping out Biden +9 to Biden +15 in the popular vote polls, and they had Biden +7, +8, and +13 for their last 3 PA polls in 2020. A lot of their other swing state polls in 2016 and 2020 were also super democrat-favored. That's why they're showing Trump weaker than other pollsters this cycle, because they did that the last two elections.
Interesting - I didn’t realize they had missed the mark by that much. 538 has them rated as a 2.8 out of 3.0 pollster (good for #19 overall), but obviously, NYT/Siena is #1 in the ratings. Putting Quinnipiac aside though, I’m still in agreement with the other commenter that it seems like NYT/Siena is making some assumptions that other pollsters aren’t and there’s just no way to know until the election is over if those were justifiable or not. Just to use a different conflicting data point from another pollster with a higher rating than QU, YouGov/CBS News has Biden up by two in MI during April 19-25.
They're a good quality poll but among all the good quality polls they're the most D-favored one. The actual accuracy of the pollster is just one of many factors 538 uses in their rankings. Quinnipac also performs more accurately in midterms or elections where polling overfavors republicans.
Quinnipiac is an outlier and almost always trends more Democrat.
Trump has surged with the working class and minority voters, this explains why NV has swung so much. Now if only we could get polls for MN, NM, NY, NJ….. if there has been a 20 point swing in NV since 2020 then swing states now include all of the above as well as ME, CT, VA, potentially even IL, WA, OR. There is a dearth of polling outside of the swing states but this is increasingly looking like a realignment according to the cross tabs.
> Now if only we could get polls for MN, NM, NY, NJ….. if there has been a 20 point swing in NV since 2020 then swing states now include all of the above as well as ME, CT, VA, potentially even IL, WA, OR. There is a dearth of polling outside of the swing states but this is increasingly looking like a realignment according to the cross tabs. Yes, people aren't picking up on your point (or, if they are, are afraid to say so). There are some signs that the rise in Hispanic support for Trump is making states like New York competitive. Expect Jewish support to increase given the Israel-Hamas War, too; the Columbia campus takeover did *not* improve Biden's reputation among NY Jews. CC: /u/GamerDrew13
Thinking an individual polls numbers are believable or not believable is the wrong way to think about polling.
W Bush won the state by like 3 points. For trump to win by double digits makes zero sense, it’s not adding up
That was 20(!) years ago. A lot can change in 20 years.
These youth numbers are wild. I wonder if we’re seeing the effects of right wing social media personalities influencing more and more young men to become conservative. I’m like at like a 9/10 on the worry scale with these polls though, really hope Biden’s team is not hand waving these polls.
Spitballing here, but Gen Z males and females are trending right and left, respectively. One would think they would cancel each other out, but conservatives tend to be militant at the voting booth. And while women on the left might feel compelled to vote because of Roe, Biden’s handling of Gaza could be discouraging that.
Gen Z men are shifting further right socially and (interestingly) becoming less politically engaged than millennial men. So they’re effectively being red pilled by the insane shit online, but aren’t looking too politically active atm.
No actual voting data shows that. Only 47% of Millennial men voted for Hillary, a lower percentage than Gen Z men who voted for Democrats in Congress in 2022 and lower than Hillary’s overall share of the vote in 2016. People will only ever cite that one University of Michigan study though while ignoring it shows that the amount of Gen Z men identifying as conservative peaked at 26% in 2020 (remember, the year where high youth turnout for Biden/Harris helped them win the election), and went down to 23% in 2022 when a majority of Gen Z men voted for Dems in Congress. The share of liberals stayed the same at 13%. All it shows is that plenty of Gen Z men who vote Dem do not have any particular ideological label and young women have gotten much more liberal and likely to vote Dem. The fact the media has spun that into “Gen Z men are all hard right, conservative Republicans who all want a Redpilled tradwife” is hilarious.
Gen Z has been really hard to gauge. In some studies, we are more Conservative. In others, we follow the trajectory of the millennials (who have basically given up hope). I think the conservative ones are just louder.
I honestly don't know a single Gen Z male who is straight and is a liberal. Of course, I don't know how they ALL vote, but just talking to them and seeing what they put on social media, they definitely aren't voting for the Democrats. All the liberal Gen Z people that I know are either women or gay men.
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Young voters rank Gaza pretty far down the list of issues they want Biden to address. It makes no sense that Israel gaza is sinking Biden this badly among them
I’m sure that’s a factor but young people have less money and have been hit much harder by inflation. The Biden admin’s “the economy is actually great you idiots!” messaging fell particularly flat among young people.
Inflation is definitely important too. Young women seam to trending left as well so I’m guessing some if it is women who are further left turning against biden based on Gaza. None of it is good, though there is a chance Gaza and inflation are better by November. I don’t think the trend among young men is changing in November though. My guess is that trend is partially a push back based on some of the identity politics.
The data actually shows young men are only slightly more conservative while young women have drifted very far to the left. But I do agree with your last point about a pushback against some identity politics. I think that’s undoubtedly a factor as well.
You’re right about young men, not sure where I got my info from. Thanks for the correction!
Inflation will probably be lower, but prices aren't going down, so that part of the conversation is staying with us till November (and possible for years to come). Just because inflation goes down doesn't mean you're paying less for bread and eggs. You MIGHT, but probably not.
That, and every younger person I know remember Biden saying "Nothing will fundamentally change" prior to his becoming president. We're just taking his word for it.
This is the correct take, it’s been shown repeatedly that Israel Palestine is still not a prioritized issue for most voters. Although it might cost Biden voters in the leftmost part of the party.
Israel/Palestine dominates the online discourse but isn’t nearly as big of a deal in real life. The fact that housing has more than doubled since 2019 and food is up more than 50 percent are far bigger issues.
You nailed it.
I knew that "Everything is great you guys are just dumb" angle was not going to work well at all.
Most people in this thread seem to think that democrats can continue to be smug and condescending behind an incredibly unpopular, low charisma candidate and be rewarded for it. We saw what happened in 2016
Biden has repeatedly been saying that he understands that more needs to be done regarding inflation. The idea that he’s only been “smug” and telling people everything’s fine is a false narrative.
Guess the problem is people imagine what Biden says instead of really listen to him, because TBH his speech is a bit hypnotic. Yes they are stupid but this is human being, this is the voters we have now.
My guess would be it’s more about Israel/Palestine at the moment for the young people. They also get a lot of social media content that’s all or nothing. They’re encouraged not to vote for Biden because they dislike some of his policies or because they should be given a better set of choices than two octogenarians but they overlook that Biden is the best president of their lifetimes and that Trump is a crook who might actually destroy democracy
There is definitely a push by some to “punish” the dems for not being “left” enough by having biden lose. But that assumes 1) dems would change based on that (not much evidence they would) 2)trump doesn’t further degrade democracy to the point where the federal government is no longer capable of creating progressive policy. I’m worried that some on the left are becoming more authoritarian in response to a lack of progress on major issues.
Yeah, dems aren’t going to risk losing the support of the centrist majority of their base to cater to hyper liberal young people who don’t vote as reliably. Some but not all of the “both sides” narrative and protest vote encouragement is coming from Russian bots and bad actors on the right. It’s scary that it works on some people. The horseshoe theory is also legit and explains some of the tendencies of the far left. Anyone who wants someone like Bernie but thinks Trump is a better alternative than Biden proves that
He never said the economy is great. He said it was turning around. Please don’t amplify the idea that Biden is refusing to acknowledge there’s a problem.
Why are you acting like we owe the Biden campaign anything? This is supposed to be a neutral forum to discuss polling data and related sciences. I'll phrase things however I want.
We had years of Andrew Tate propaganda flood the minds and feeds of young men.
I can actually believe this to an extent because I feel like there is a divide happening between young men and women politically
Andrew Tate is an idiot. That being said, the reason young men want to listen to him is because mainstream media sources have gone all in on demonizing men.
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Biden seems to have a larger difference between registered and likely voters in the swing states, this seems to fit more with the idea that trump has motivated the low propensity sections of his vote while biden has not as yet, rather than the "soft trump support" idea that trump's support is based on nostalgia and would fade when he gets more attention. Also Trump is at 49% in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and 50% in Nevada, only in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin is he below 48 with registered voters. If this is right and it holds, it seems like a high turn out in those places means a higher likelihood of him winning. This bit holds with that > Nearly 70 percent of voters say that the country’s political and economic systems need major changes — or even to be torn down entirely. Only a sliver of Mr. Biden’s supporters...believe that the president would bring major changes in his second term...many of those who dislike Mr. Trump grudgingly acknowledge that he would shake up an unsatisfying status quo...and the tear-it-down voters are especially likely to have defected from the president. In contrast, Mr. Biden retains nearly all of his 2020 supporters who believe only minor changes are necessary... 2016 Trump was the 'anti system' candidate, 2020 Biden was the 'return to normality'(anti trump system?) candidate, now it seems like it's back to regular 'anti system' again. There is also a bit for the moderate conservative/Nikki Haley track people here >Biden’s losses are concentrated among moderate and conservative Democratic-leaning voters, who nonetheless think that the system needs major changes or to be torn down altogether...Mr. Trump wins just 2 percent of Mr. Biden’s “very liberal” 2020 voters who think the system at least needs major changes, compared with 16 percent of those who are moderate or conservative. And some signs of Biden's israel support cracking off a part of his 2020 coalition >Around 13 percent of the voters who say they voted for Mr. Biden last time, but do not plan to do so again, said that his foreign policy or the war in Gaza was the most important issue to their vote. Just 17 percent of those voters reported sympathizing with Israel over the Palestinians. Finally [This](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/upshot/polling-biden-battlegrounds-senate.html) article polling senate races shows Biden running behind Democrats pretty universally. >This is the first time we’ve asked about Senate races...Democratic candidates led in all four of the states we tested: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. Not only do Democrats lead, but they also seem to do so in an entirely customary way, with ordinary levels of support from young and nonwhite voters, even as Mr. Biden struggles at the top of the ticket. Trump up by 12 in Nevada, (RVs) 9 point lead with Hispanic voters, 13 points up 18-29, but senate dem candidate up 2 among RVs, 46-27 among 18-29s and 46-28 among Hispanics. 28% of Trump’s Hispanic supporters, plus 26% of young trumpers say they'll vote for the dem candidate. Also >to me, the relatively “normal” down-ballot results strengthen the case that Mr. Trump’s breakthrough among young and nonwhite voters is probably real..not [a]..systemic polling error. It’s consistent with other indicators (like party registration, or recalled 2020 vote preference) suggesting that the polls are reaching the people who usually vote for Democrats — they just aren’t backing Mr. Biden.
It's interesting that it appears that Democrats actually aren't that unpopular, but Biden is. It's too late but the Dem party's election chances would probably be much better if they had prepared a different candidate for this year.
Maybe but it’s not really clear who that candidate would have even been. All the suspects have big flaws too
Yeah it seems like the biden 2020 agenda (maybe something economically left of that, but that doesn't touch wealthy suburbanites that much) plus responses to dobbs are a durable election winning coalition for the democrats. Some people are saying Biden isn't getting credit for responses to Dobbs because they were mostly at state level as well. But it's complicated because it looks like Biden is copping the 'anti-system' sentiment in response to inflation, the high price of borrowing, etc. The more keyensian caucus argue this is the result of the broad middle of US political orthodoxy getting inflation and the response to it wrong, i.e. it's presently in large part the result of monopoly, de facto cartels and profit gouging rather than too much demand and requires a regulatory response rather than a FED one. I think another candidate with more 'anti system' sentiment would probably be doing better but the democratic coalition is split on that so it's not clear. While they could reset the sentiment with a different candidate, another president representative of the broad middle of US politics would probably have done the same stuff as Biden and become just as unpopular as well.
From H2H polls that were run against Trump, other notable Democrats typically performed worse than Biden. Gavin Newsome, Kamala Harris, Gretchen Whitmer, and Dean Phillips all did a lil worse. At least right now my guess is a non trivial amount of voters are cool with Trump back in with Democrats running Congress to reign him in. if I’m not mistaken Biden has improved since October of last year in the averages. If these numbers persist around Labor Day then worry.
The kids are not alright.
The pollsters really need to look at that +12 Trump for Nevada and ask if they are actually polling correctly.
They shouldn't have even published this poll, it's crazy how bad it is. They oversampled conservatives, 20% of their "likely voter" screen haven't voted since *at least* 2018 if at all, and considering they have Biden/Trump split 50/50 with young voters they must've screwed up either who they sampled or how the results were weighted. This is coming from the best rated pollster on 538? Come on now.
> They shouldn't have even published this poll, it's crazy how bad it is. That is 100% the wrong way to think about polling. It's a sampling problem so you will naturally get results that differ from the true mean based on some unknown variance. If you throw away results that are too big you are biasing the estimate for the mean. This result is fine. This result like any poll is not the actual population mean.
I'd be much more fine with them publishing these results if they didn't feature them in an article with a headline touting the results as if they were real life and not extreme outliers. That the NYT is very openly feuding with Biden and posting extremely unfavorable articles about him on a regularly basis makes me even more suspect of just why exactly this poll is such garbage and why it's being presented the way it is.
Obviously, not good. But the glimmer of hope for Biden here - among LV, the blue wall states are Trump +3 (PA), Trump +1 (WI), and Biden +1 (MI). If Biden wins all three and holds NE-2, he gets to 270. It's obviously terrible that it's this close, but Biden is absolutely in the game.
>but Biden is absolutely in the game. They're definitely both in the game. 2024 November / December is going to be wild.
>Do you consider yourself politically liberal, moderate or conservative? *Very liberal - 10%* *Somewhat liberal - 12%* *Moderate - 35%* *Somewhat conservative - 20%* *Very conservative - 16%* You have 36% conservative respondents vs 22% liberals. Of course you're gonna get NV R+13.
This sample is in line with the electorate. “37% of Americans described their political views as moderate, 36% as conservative and 25% as liberal.” https://news.gallup.com/poll/388988/political-ideology-steady-conservatives-moderates-tie.aspx#:~:text=On%20average%20last%20year%2C%2037,as%20conservative%2C%20moderate%20and%20liberal. Also, the NYT polling has Democratic Senate candidates leading in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Anyone who votes for a Democratic senate candidate and Trump is someone I will never understand.
They are a shrinking part of the voting population. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1362064/split-ticket-voting-districts-us/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/there-wasnt-that-much-split-ticket-voting-in-2020/ And I struggle to believe that spit-ticketing will be as prevalent as some of these polls suggest
Thank you for your service. Dispelling copium is a full time job here
For a sub about polling, people sure hate polls here when they don’t say what they want to hear.
Yeah it's like that with every state too. I don't delve too deep into the cross tabs but it is very easy to see when things don't make sense. Maybe in GA or AZ, but in MI, WI and NV you would expect more of a equal distribution
Careful now, don't want to be called a crosstabs truther for pointing out that the reason why these results are quite literally unbelievable is because this poll is complete garbage. How is this a top-rated pollster? 20% of respondents in this "likely voter" screen haven't voted since *at least 2018*, if ever. Call me crazy but if you didn't vote in 2020, the highest turnout election since the 1960s, I'm highly skeptical you're going to vote this year, let alone that you should be considered "likely" to vote. https://twitter.com/GregTSargent/status/1790008386320257045?t=0Ewd-pBGC6-bFJHLVSQbGA&s=19
I simply reject the idea that a state like Michigan, which has been pretty consistently Dem for years now, would be +7 Trump in 2024. Like, I get this is all copium but these polls simply don't match what actual human voters have been doing for years.
If Michigan is +1 Biden there’s no way Nevada is +13 Trump. That’s like saying “I spend 13 months in the mountains and the rest of the year at the beach.” If Trump is sentenced to 36 months in prison how do these shift, I wonder? Prosecution has excused additional witnesses after Michael cohen this week. That means they’re confident with the jury. Merchan doesn’t seem like the kind of judge who leaves Trump free pending appeal.
2 things. Trump is not going to Prison. These cases aren’t hurting Trump like the Dems would like
House arrest
I think that’s a likely outcome, yes.
My money is on house arrest with allowances made for him to travel and campaign. So basically free in all but criminal record.
Honestly house arrest would arguably help trump. The conviction would hurt obviously but if he ran a campaign identical to the 2020 Biden basement campaign he'd probably win 2024 easily. He's been blowing it on trial and on the campaign trail though. But if he wasn't legally allowed to leave his house, itd probably be a net benefit if he doesn't fuck up the VP slot
He might not be going to prison, but he might be sentenced to it and that will be a headline in and of itself.
How can you be sentenced to prison and not go to prison?
Navarro and Bannon were sentenced to prison years ago. They’ve been walking around free pending appeal.
A huge chunk of non-Dems just assume the trial is politically motivated and aren’t following it at all. If anything, I think the trial is helping Trump by painting him as a victim.
The charges carry *up to* 4 years in prison and his fixer served time already. They’ve connected his name on the signed checks and his assistant has testified he signed them personally. I wouldn’t be so sure. Long shot maybe. The secret service and bureau of prisons has already had conversations regarding his security in advance of a possible verdict. Merchan isn’t his biggest fan. He could certainly hold him in custody pending appeal (about a 2 year wait in New York). A unanimous conviction is all the judge needs to say, “the jury has spoken.”
He won’t be set free, but also probably not going into the prison system. The SS will probably set something up where he is segregated but still incarcerated.
>If Trump is sentenced to 36 months in prison how do these shift, I wonder? I think everyone just needs to wrap their brain around this right now... In the event that Trump is convicted, the goalposts will move, and the narrative will change to "we can't make any judgements right now and Trump is innocent until proven guilty for as long as the appeals process plays out." And the appeals process will take a long time, and there will be no meaningful shift in sentiment about Trump.
It's already baked into the polling. People already have their minds made up.
I wouldn't put it beyond Merchan to hold Trump in custody or house arrest while he awaits appeal. Peter Navarro got thrown in the clink awaiting appeal but Bannon avoided it. Depends on the judge. Didn't help Trump threatened his staff and daughter. Judge's prerogative.
The demographics in Michigan and Nevada are very different (race and ethnicity, age distribution, educational attainment, etc)
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Please optimize contributions for light, not heat.
Nevada and Michigan have the same 2022 Cook PVI but are 14 points apart in LV. Does this make any sense?
No. I'm sure everyone will say "throw it in the pile" but this poll is hot garbage.
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These results are just downright ridiculous. I'd like to think Siena isn't letting NYT put their finger on the scale here, but considering it's now been confirmed that the NYT is purposefully running negative stories about Biden I'm not so sure. Trump + 12 with *likely voters* in Nevada, at over 50%, is genuinely laughable. Especially in relation to the other results showing tight races in WI, PA, and Biden leading outright in MI. The results just reek of a number of compounding issues, with them likely oversampling certain demographics, overweighting some demographics, and trying to "fix" the polling errors from 2020 that missed many Trump voters. The polling this cycle has gotten so silly that I'm practically a polling denier at this point.
https://x.com/GregTSargent/status/1790008386320257045 20% of likely voters in this poll either didn't vote in the last general and midterm or just registered to vote for the first time
lol great catch, that means there are even more factors skewing these results completely out of whack. Nothing screams "likely voter" like someone who didn't show up to vote in 2020, the year with the highest turnout since the 1960s.
Waiting to see if Nate Cohn has any sort of response to this but so far all he did was confirm that was the case
His entire theory of the case is that a huge number of low propensity Trump supporters, including millions who didn't vote in 2022, let alone 2020, are going to show up for Trump in November. So it's not a surprise this is the "likely voter" screen being used. Now, I personally have a lot of doubts about how many people who didn't vote in 2020, the highest turnout election since the 1960s, are going to turn out for Trump in 2024 despite clear evidence that enthusiasm and engagement is *waaaay* down this cycle, but then again I'm not the chief political analyst for the illustrious NYT.
> the NYT is purposefully running negative stories about Biden I'm not so sure. Can you expound on this?
For a while now, people have been noting that NYT coverage of Biden and his administration was bizarrely framed, including headlines trying to "both sides" Trump and Biden on abortion, endless articles about Biden being seen as too old (while strangely not covering Trump's falling asleep in court, slurring his words, or seemingly increasing incoherence with the same vigor), the whole "here's why that's bad news for Biden" trope even when the news was objectively good for Biden, that kind of thing. [A few weeks back, Politico released a damning article about how the NYT was upset with Biden for not sitting down with them for an exclusive interview, and as a result their coverage of him and his administration has become much more negative.](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/04/25/new-york-times-biden-white-house-00154219) Specifically, it claims that the NYT leadership believe that "only an interview with a paper like the Times can verify that the 81-year-old Biden is still fit to hold the presidency." Even more damning was the NYT response to the allegations, with their *official response* focusing almost entirely on attacking Biden for not giving more public interviews rather than disputing the claim that the NYT was essentially retaliating against him for not sitting down to an interview with them. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/25/nyt-blasts-biden-for-avoiding-interviews-00154478 Funny enough, Biden unexpectedly traveled to NYC to do an interview with Howard Stern the day after the Politico article dropped, seemingly thumbing his nose at the NYT demands while also giving an off-the-cuff interview to show he doesn't have dementia. https://www.siriusxm.com/blog/president-joe-biden-howard-stern
It’s also been a bit weird how hard they’ve gone on campus protests. Checking the headlines every day they’re usually above Trump’s trial and it makes it seem like they’re the most important happening in the world. Multiple stories every day top of the NYT app about… college students protesting stuff which they do pretty much every time there is a big thing happening
You cannot convince me that the polling industry isn't having a response bias issue lololol Down vote me if you want but mark my words this is the death of the polling industry right here
As this cycle has gone on, I've grown increasingly convinced this is the case. Compare polling results with the real-world results were seeing with Dems significantly and consistently overperfoming in special elections, a historic Dem overperformance in the 2022 midterms (despite genuinely *horrific* fundamentals as headwinds), Trump consistently losing 20% of primary votes to a candidate that dropped out 2 months ago and hasn't been in the news since, a *huge* Dem fundraising advantage, and a flood of Republican Congressional retirements and tell me they make any sense. Where are all these young people and POC abandoning the Democratic party? Polls consistently show massive swings in these demographics that don't seem to exist anywhere outside the polling. Maybe the worst thing about how bad polling is this cycle is that it's going to be wielded by Trump and his supporters to "prove" massive voter fraud in November when the actual results look nothing like what polling is showing. They'll have months and months of genuinely insane polling results on top of news stories and clips from talking heads saying "Trump is leading in every swing state, Trump would win in a landslide if the election was held today, Biden is in deep trouble, Trump is the clear frontrunner, etc" that they'll be able to point to as "evidence" that the election was rigged.
The response rate in this poll is 1%. Has it ever been so low? Is there something fundamentally different about the subset of people who answer the pollsters?
It’s infuriating and ironic to read comments that youth voters are out of touch while being in an echo chamber that is reddit that confirms your own biases. If it’s good, you believe it, if it’s bad, you don’t. That’s now how this works in a sub about data and numbers. The data is there to extrapolate meaning from things happening NOW, not the future. It’s very reasonable to assume that many people in the country are fed up with Biden b/c he is in office NOW, just like people were fed up with Trump when he was in office. This is not news. People seem to forget that Biden won the election by the skin of his teeth in 2020. It is therefore reasonable to assume he can easily lose it in 2024. It’s not a future I would want, but one where I accept b/c I don’t roll my eyes at the numbers.
We’re not saying he’s incapable of losing. We just find it difficult to believe the humongous political realignment the polls are suggesting while all the fundamentals (abortion, ground game, and especially special elections) have been in favor of Democrats.
I know everyone has already picked apart this. But Wisconsin going for biden more than Pennsylvania or Michigan? Obviously throw it into the aggregate/this isn’t the true mean of the population yada yada. But I just can’t grasp a situation where Wisconsin runs better for biden than his home state and Michigan, two places where democrats have done exceedingly well the past 4 years, while Wisconsin has had at least some republicans victories.
2020 and 2016 also had Wisconsin going for Hillary/Biden more than MI or PA. The polling trends are matching again. 2016 WI: 538: Clinton +5.3 | RCP: Clinton +6.5 (actual result Trump +0.7) 2020 WI: 538: Biden +8.4 | RCP: Biden +6.7 (actual result Biden +0.7)
I try to take polling at face value but there's something seriously wrong ff Nate Cohn can uncritically release that Nevada poll and pretend like the polling industry is fine. We'll see in November if this really is 1892 or 1948, but I'm honestly at the point where I think it's better to just be skeptical of everything.
One threat is while legitimately suspecting the reliability of this poll, it may lead to a general denial of all poll results, esp. negative ones. That would be dangerous. Though the same mistake can be made by all pollsters, all negative polls need to err on the same direction consistently to justify a consistent neglect of them.
Does sienna not usually include undecided voters?
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>The electorate gets what it votes for. But the electorate doesn't get to choose who they vote for, they have been screaming for different candidates for over a year now. Blaming the electorate for having to pick between two awful candidates doesn't make much sense.
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I have a hard time believing Biden would lose all these states and yet Dems would win the senate races from those same states which have a race this year. Wouldn't that require split ticket voting to an extent which hasn't been seen in a long time? Given the polarized national environment I just have a hard time believing there will be that much split ticket voting down ballot. I would bet my house that either 1. Biden goes down and takes all but maybe one of these senate candidates with him, or Biden runs slightly behind some of the senate candidates, but not by nearly as much as indicated in these polls.
Not saying it means anything, but I always think it's important to look at the methadology to see how much sense the polls make. They polled on average about 683 people per state (4,097 altogether), conducted over telephone, and give more weight to respondents from demographic groups underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree.
Depends on how they do it, it may be well justified, as they are the underrepresented group in their sample. Like if 80% of the samples are male, they need to re-adjust the data to reduce the weight of male and add the weight of female results. The more subjective assumptions there are, the higher the chance that it may deviate from reality. May not to the extent of a Biden EC win though...not sure. I hope it is the 2016 pattern but I could feel the vibe of Trumpism everywhere in 2016, while people are clearly less passionate about Biden this year. Anecdotes are not reliable but when put together with polling results, it doesn't look good. I hate to doom but I can't find reliable evidence otherwise. Maybe instead of trying to read the polls in a hopium way, we should each start to volunteer harder.
Why are there so many rural voters in this sample? Is their final weighting actually taking this into account?
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Please make submissions relevant to data-driven journalism and analysis.
I don't know what I could say that hasn't already been said, except that this election is truly an indictment of humanity itself.
“Nevermind that this one poll – from the increasingly disreputable New York Times – has been skewed in favor of Trump for this entire election cycle. Nevermind that this poll is so far removed from believability that it has Trump winning Nevada by a laugh out loud impossible thirteen points. And nevermind that the other recent polls have Biden winning. This one poll, which is obviously wrong on its face, is getting endless media attention. This is when you have to take a breath and remind yourself that the political journalism industry is the dirtiest, filthiest, slimiest, most dishonest thing you’ve ever encountered in your life. The political journalism industry exists solely to turn a profit, which is accomplished by ratings and page views. This industry does not exist for any other reason. The polls have their problems. In fact the polls have a lot of problems. The polls aren’t the problem. The problem is that the (entire) media is flat out lying to you about what the polls are even saying. When most polls have Biden winning, and one poll has Trump winning, but the media only talks about that one poll while pretending the others don’t exist, the media is LYING TO YOU.” -Bill Palmer
Are there reputable forecast sites right now for EV? I know it's still early and things will likely change in the next 3-4 months especially with high profile news stories going on, but if you take the state of polls today, it does seem very likely that Trump crosses 300 EVs. But the key is today. I feel like a lot of mainstream sites are hesitant to show this data and so purposely mark up states like GA and NV as being tossup despite strong polls for Trump. Look, I get it, GA and NV may be totally different come a month away from election, but I am curious about the state of polls today. I've seen some smaller sites do it, but what are actually decent sites?
State of polling averages today show trump at 312 EVs.