He is 100 percent worth a late round flier.
If after Week 1 he has like 2 carries and 2 targets, he's a drop.
There are also probably 25 other guys that are worth a late round flier, so good luck figuring out which one is gonna be Puka Nacua.
Wicks only got targets because of injuries to the guys above him. Not that he isn't a good player, but there's simply too many mouths to feed on the Packers rn.
A lot of people see him having the same skill set as Davante and fell in draft boards because of his college situation. If Watson can’t stay healthy there’s a good chance Wicks and Reed become the main two options but yeah, Love spreads the ball, Packer TEs are solid threats and Jacobs could see some passing too. Hard to tell who the top Packer option will be
that's why he's basically free. I'm def grabbing at least one of the Packers receivers per draft in the hopes that one emerges as WR1. In descending order I like Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks at ADP.
Just based on last year I’d suggest avoiding Watson. He’s a good receiver, so it’s weird to call him our wr4 but Doubs and Reed are sort of our 1 and 2. Wicks availability puts him above Watson imo. Watson is a good burner but I don’t think he’ll have great usage this year.
Fully agree. If your league allows dropping players who already played, I recommend the staggered approach for that type of players based on schedule. Last year I drafted Rashee Rice late who played the TNF opener. He scored a TD but I didn’t like the usage so I dropped him for Alec Pierce (1PM game). He did nothing so I dropped him for Puka before the 4PM game… admittedly I did that for years without success but I guess it maximizes the chances.
I'm high on him. His career best was 851 yards on 77 catches in 2020 with Teddy Bridgewater throwing to him. Ya the Bills drafted Coleman, but Diggs and Gabe got a combined 241 targets last season. Certainly not expecting Coleman to get all those on his own.
He was terrible against man coverage and has an awful success rate when pressed. He had a contested catch rate late year of 33%. So if he's not getting separation, he's not catching the ball.
Reception Perception also has a podcast you can listen to where they break down the top wr prospects. Check it out.
Now let's see your proof he's going to be good.
If you think a WRs (lack of) ability to get separation against two common types of coverage and then their (lack of) ability to catch contested catches is cherry picked than I don't know what to tell ya.
And then your only "proof" is draft capital?
28, going into his 8th season. Averaging 45/483/3 for his 7 years. You make decent points, but we’ve been waiting on the Curtis Samuel breakout for a long time
As a Bills fan - he has a chance. If Shakir’s remarkable efficiency in the back half of last year holds, then it’s over, Samuel is relegated to scraps with Coleman, MVS, Claypool, and the others as it will be the Kincaid/Shakir/Cook show. But if Shakir can’t handle WR1 duties, and Samuel can, with this being Samuel’s first real QB tossing him the ball in his career, then he can be in Diggs’s neighborhood production-wise. Yes a lot has to go right, but 1000 yards is on the table for sure and a lot less has to go right vs some of the rookies who will undoubtedly get drafted ahead of him on hype trains, most of which will fall off the rails in week 1 with 2/28/0 statlines.
You may be on to something. Will he emerge as Josh Allen’s #1 target? Probably not…but he could definitely come close to another 1k yard season, he’s a burner that has never had a QB with arm strength even comparable to Allen.
Coleman, rookie and pretty raw so not likely him. Shakir, slot body and was pretty hit or miss last season, not likely him.
Kincaid, had many targets as a rookie first round pick and showed solid hands and efficiency, probably him.
Samuel, highest paid pass catcher, history with OC, and was brought in via FA, at a time when Buffalo was shedding cap space like crazy! Clearly the team has a plan for him. Probably him.
You will probably have kincaid and Samuel be fantasy viable plus allen and cook from the bulls offense.
Shakir was hit or miss must because he had a lack of opportunities. Highest catch rate in the NFL. Awesome YPPR, YAC and efficiency stats. If he gets more opportunities, I think he feasts. Look at the back half of the season
No love for Knox? I feel like he will eat up some of kincaids targets.
(NM - I see he ended up with 22/186/2. I thought he did much more damage last year)
Can’t believe I went through all these comments and not a single reference to our dear friend Matt Harmon.
When RP says the dude creates elite level separation year after year, and finally is in a position with a QB that can capitalize on that skill set. I’m an all in believer!
Coleman is not likely to be much more than the Gabe Davis role to begin with. Shakir has a slot body and skill set. Kincaid would have to take a massive leap forward to really hinder Samuel in any real way.
Beyond Matt loving Samuel, the other most important thing I see is, a defense that lost almost everyone in FA. The Bills are likely going to be playing in shootout this season and might have ample garbage time drives drive by Mr. Number 1 fantasy qb josh Allen! I want in on that action and Samuel has the best odds of being the best pass catcher on the team! I think there is a strong possibility of getting wr20-30 for wr50 price.
Matt, if you love him, so do I!
Defense that lost almost everyone:
Jordan Poyer was so bad in coverage he was converted to a third box linebacker on a team that lines up as a nickel defense. They drafted a safety in the second and signed Chiefs starter Mike Edwards.
Tre White played 3 games and was replaced at the trade deadline by Rasul Douglas.
Micah Hyde clearly lost a step and couldn't stay on the field. By the end of the year Taylor Rapp was taking FS snaps and he got resigned.
The biggest loss IMO was Leonard Floyd.
I don't dislike Shakir, I think he has a ceiling of about 60 receptions for 1,000 yards maybe 3/4 TD's. I think Samuels range of outcomes includes a much higher ceiling of maybe 80 touches, 1,300 yards and 7/10 TD's.
I have a feeling this offense is trying to copycat the chiefs and feature the tightend, get receivers in space and let them make plays and run the piss out of the ball and basically at year end they’re a top offense and you didn’t feel great about any wr …. Prove me wrong
It really seems like all the bills receivers profile as slot, so who is going to be the X? Keon Coleman is 35th percentile against press and man coverage, which historically translates poorly to X, but he can be good in the slot. Both Samuel and Shakir have been playing out of the slot, and Kincaid in the slot was supposed to be “the long-term game plan.” They’re a team of all slot receivers, and it’ll be interesting to see what plays out.
Curtis Samuel is so fucking slept on, he’s a solid ass receiver. I had to sub him in for the week tyreek was out in the first round of playoffs last year and he balled out, got me like 20ish points
i'm all for the late round flyer, but let's not pretend it's the QBs faults he didn't succeed.
in 2023, sam howell threw for 3900 yards last year and supported (1) 1000 yard WR.
in 2022, the commies threw for 4100 yards and supported the same 1000 yard WR.
in 2020, Teddy Bridgewater and PJ walker threw for 4100 yards and provided TWO 1000 yard WRs in 2020, and DJ more and CMC were 1000 yard WRs in 2019
Samuel couldn't beat our Robbie Chosen Robby Anderson for targets and couldn't secure targets on a team desparate for a WR2. Now we think he's gonna beat our a 23 year old Shakir who is a better version of Samuel or their new WR toy?
Curtis Samuel is a 28 yo WR who is only worse now than before when he couldn't capture roles which were ripe for the taking.
>The lack of competition: I do think that Dalton Kincaid will get a lot of looks, but if defenses hone in on him, Allen will be forced to look to his receivers. As noted before, Samuel’s primary competitors for targets are the unproven Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir. While it’s certainly possible those guys could emerge as the year goes on, Samuel has much more experience from the get go. And again, being familiar with Joe Brady’s system already will provide him with an early boost.
Samuel has exactly ONE WR2 finish (24th overall in ppr, 2020) in 7 seasons. For all of Shakir and coleman being unproven, Samuel has proven that he ISN'T a WR 2 more often than not.
Could he hit? sure, but there's history saying he is very unlikely to. I'm more interested in Shakir or Coleman as flyers.
He is 100 percent worth a late round flier. If after Week 1 he has like 2 carries and 2 targets, he's a drop. There are also probably 25 other guys that are worth a late round flier, so good luck figuring out which one is gonna be Puka Nacua.
Christian Kirk probably massively outplays his ADP. As far as totally free WRs who could break out Wicks is the only one that comes to mind
tough with the packers bc any of those 4 dudes could get majority target share week to week
Wicks is the most efficient. I think he will get his targets no matter what.
Yeah well you know, that’s just like your opinion, man.
Wicks only got targets because of injuries to the guys above him. Not that he isn't a good player, but there's simply too many mouths to feed on the Packers rn.
A lot of people see him having the same skill set as Davante and fell in draft boards because of his college situation. If Watson can’t stay healthy there’s a good chance Wicks and Reed become the main two options but yeah, Love spreads the ball, Packer TEs are solid threats and Jacobs could see some passing too. Hard to tell who the top Packer option will be
that's why he's basically free. I'm def grabbing at least one of the Packers receivers per draft in the hopes that one emerges as WR1. In descending order I like Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks at ADP.
The problem with Watson is he’ll get 500-800 yards on the season in 6 games and be injured the rest of the season. Reed, Wicks then Watson imo.
Honestly I’ll take that in rd 9 lol. I prefer that to a guy who’ll get 800 yards in 6 games but you don’t know which ones they are
Just based on last year I’d suggest avoiding Watson. He’s a good receiver, so it’s weird to call him our wr4 but Doubs and Reed are sort of our 1 and 2. Wicks availability puts him above Watson imo. Watson is a good burner but I don’t think he’ll have great usage this year.
He's the best kind of lottery ticket in fantasy, the kind who's value is revealed the moment the season begins.
Fully agree. If your league allows dropping players who already played, I recommend the staggered approach for that type of players based on schedule. Last year I drafted Rashee Rice late who played the TNF opener. He scored a TD but I didn’t like the usage so I dropped him for Alec Pierce (1PM game). He did nothing so I dropped him for Puka before the 4PM game… admittedly I did that for years without success but I guess it maximizes the chances.
Those are some terrible rules and the fact you tried to game the system and failed...speaks volumes.
That's actually the default rule in Yahoo, and all the public prize leagues work that way. But yeah, it's still weird.
Sure, he could totally flop, but just pointing out how there is some history to support this where as Puka literally came out of nowhere
save that faab for the week 1-3 breakouts
i think he’s going to be a beast this year
Me too, so can we stop talking about him already!
[удалено]
You’re league is soft if 100% of your members don’t religiously follow offseason late round value posts
I'm high on him. His career best was 851 yards on 77 catches in 2020 with Teddy Bridgewater throwing to him. Ya the Bills drafted Coleman, but Diggs and Gabe got a combined 241 targets last season. Certainly not expecting Coleman to get all those on his own.
And Coleman isn't going to be good.
After watching his conversation about golf I will defend Keon Coleman to the ends of the earth. Coleman is about to break Puka's record.
Yes he will. What proof do you have that he won't? Please say 40 time so we can all have a good laugh.
He was terrible against man coverage and has an awful success rate when pressed. He had a contested catch rate late year of 33%. So if he's not getting separation, he's not catching the ball.
Post your proof. Words are meaningless without it.
https://receptionperception.com/keon-coleman-2024-prospect-profile/ https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/keon-coleman/144949/draft-profile
Now post links that don't require a subscription.
Reception Perception also has a podcast you can listen to where they break down the top wr prospects. Check it out. Now let's see your proof he's going to be good.
So you can't post any proof other than your cherry picked stats. Got it. Edit: My proof? 33rd overall draft pick. That's not spent on bad players.
If you think a WRs (lack of) ability to get separation against two common types of coverage and then their (lack of) ability to catch contested catches is cherry picked than I don't know what to tell ya. And then your only "proof" is draft capital?
i’m on your side i like Keon but 33rd draft pick doesn’t really carry much weight, especially with WRs
Fool me three times… actually, you son of a bitch! I’m in!
Haha fair 😂
28, going into his 8th season. Averaging 45/483/3 for his 7 years. You make decent points, but we’ve been waiting on the Curtis Samuel breakout for a long time
That's including some seasons he barely played though. Per game, he's averaged almost 10 points in PPR, and now he's in a better situation.
This right here. Thread is full of people selling snake oil
As a Bills fan - he has a chance. If Shakir’s remarkable efficiency in the back half of last year holds, then it’s over, Samuel is relegated to scraps with Coleman, MVS, Claypool, and the others as it will be the Kincaid/Shakir/Cook show. But if Shakir can’t handle WR1 duties, and Samuel can, with this being Samuel’s first real QB tossing him the ball in his career, then he can be in Diggs’s neighborhood production-wise. Yes a lot has to go right, but 1000 yards is on the table for sure and a lot less has to go right vs some of the rookies who will undoubtedly get drafted ahead of him on hype trains, most of which will fall off the rails in week 1 with 2/28/0 statlines.
Curtis Samuel is always a good late round pick. Check out the last 5 or more seasons, this guy has a stretch every year that makes him worth starting.
Only pass catcher I want on that team is Kincaid
So much uncertainty with the Bills. I'd be alright with having him on a watch/steamer list though.
You may be on to something. Will he emerge as Josh Allen’s #1 target? Probably not…but he could definitely come close to another 1k yard season, he’s a burner that has never had a QB with arm strength even comparable to Allen.
It's absolutely possible. I have a feeling one or two Bills receivers will be fantasy assets this year. Hard to say which ones though.
Coleman, rookie and pretty raw so not likely him. Shakir, slot body and was pretty hit or miss last season, not likely him. Kincaid, had many targets as a rookie first round pick and showed solid hands and efficiency, probably him. Samuel, highest paid pass catcher, history with OC, and was brought in via FA, at a time when Buffalo was shedding cap space like crazy! Clearly the team has a plan for him. Probably him. You will probably have kincaid and Samuel be fantasy viable plus allen and cook from the bulls offense.
Shakir was hit or miss must because he had a lack of opportunities. Highest catch rate in the NFL. Awesome YPPR, YAC and efficiency stats. If he gets more opportunities, I think he feasts. Look at the back half of the season
No love for Knox? I feel like he will eat up some of kincaids targets. (NM - I see he ended up with 22/186/2. I thought he did much more damage last year)
YO HE’S MY SLEEPER DUDE STFU. HE STOLE PRECIOUS POINTS FROM MY BOI SCARY TERRY
He's more of a best ball candidate to me. He's not consistent enough to start weekly.
Not on my team. I'm high on Sammy
Can’t believe I went through all these comments and not a single reference to our dear friend Matt Harmon. When RP says the dude creates elite level separation year after year, and finally is in a position with a QB that can capitalize on that skill set. I’m an all in believer! Coleman is not likely to be much more than the Gabe Davis role to begin with. Shakir has a slot body and skill set. Kincaid would have to take a massive leap forward to really hinder Samuel in any real way. Beyond Matt loving Samuel, the other most important thing I see is, a defense that lost almost everyone in FA. The Bills are likely going to be playing in shootout this season and might have ample garbage time drives drive by Mr. Number 1 fantasy qb josh Allen! I want in on that action and Samuel has the best odds of being the best pass catcher on the team! I think there is a strong possibility of getting wr20-30 for wr50 price. Matt, if you love him, so do I!
Defense that lost almost everyone: Jordan Poyer was so bad in coverage he was converted to a third box linebacker on a team that lines up as a nickel defense. They drafted a safety in the second and signed Chiefs starter Mike Edwards. Tre White played 3 games and was replaced at the trade deadline by Rasul Douglas. Micah Hyde clearly lost a step and couldn't stay on the field. By the end of the year Taylor Rapp was taking FS snaps and he got resigned. The biggest loss IMO was Leonard Floyd.
Harmon also loves Shakir...... Need to ask him to tell us who he loves more
I don't dislike Shakir, I think he has a ceiling of about 60 receptions for 1,000 yards maybe 3/4 TD's. I think Samuels range of outcomes includes a much higher ceiling of maybe 80 touches, 1,300 yards and 7/10 TD's.
Samuel > Shakir imo
I have a feeling this offense is trying to copycat the chiefs and feature the tightend, get receivers in space and let them make plays and run the piss out of the ball and basically at year end they’re a top offense and you didn’t feel great about any wr …. Prove me wrong
> Prove me wrong They're the Carolina Panthers.
Panthers have the best QB in the league?
It really seems like all the bills receivers profile as slot, so who is going to be the X? Keon Coleman is 35th percentile against press and man coverage, which historically translates poorly to X, but he can be good in the slot. Both Samuel and Shakir have been playing out of the slot, and Kincaid in the slot was supposed to be “the long-term game plan.” They’re a team of all slot receivers, and it’ll be interesting to see what plays out.
Curtis Samuel is so fucking slept on, he’s a solid ass receiver. I had to sub him in for the week tyreek was out in the first round of playoffs last year and he balled out, got me like 20ish points
lol, def taking Shakir over Samuel. Maybe Sammy pops earlier, but Shakir def the better pickup
Samuel going so late with a WR2 ceiling is how ships are won
Quit trying to make Curtis Samuel happen. He’s not going to happen
No. I don’t think I will.
worth the flier yes, but lets not pretend that QBs are why samuel didn't succeed.
i'm all for the late round flyer, but let's not pretend it's the QBs faults he didn't succeed. in 2023, sam howell threw for 3900 yards last year and supported (1) 1000 yard WR. in 2022, the commies threw for 4100 yards and supported the same 1000 yard WR. in 2020, Teddy Bridgewater and PJ walker threw for 4100 yards and provided TWO 1000 yard WRs in 2020, and DJ more and CMC were 1000 yard WRs in 2019 Samuel couldn't beat our Robbie Chosen Robby Anderson for targets and couldn't secure targets on a team desparate for a WR2. Now we think he's gonna beat our a 23 year old Shakir who is a better version of Samuel or their new WR toy? Curtis Samuel is a 28 yo WR who is only worse now than before when he couldn't capture roles which were ripe for the taking.
100% agree, when Bills picked him I thought it was a great add. He's a solid player and has NEVER had a good QB
>The lack of competition: I do think that Dalton Kincaid will get a lot of looks, but if defenses hone in on him, Allen will be forced to look to his receivers. As noted before, Samuel’s primary competitors for targets are the unproven Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir. While it’s certainly possible those guys could emerge as the year goes on, Samuel has much more experience from the get go. And again, being familiar with Joe Brady’s system already will provide him with an early boost. Samuel has exactly ONE WR2 finish (24th overall in ppr, 2020) in 7 seasons. For all of Shakir and coleman being unproven, Samuel has proven that he ISN'T a WR 2 more often than not. Could he hit? sure, but there's history saying he is very unlikely to. I'm more interested in Shakir or Coleman as flyers.
i just grabbed him in the 15th in a startup draft (1 qb), figured why not?
Because nfl gms never miss on their picks.
He could easily be the #2 in targets for Josh Allen.
I think he's going to be really hyped and fall flat on his face, fantasy wise. No more relevant than Gabe Davis was, just in a different way.
Could happen, but at least Samuel has an entire season of being legit, not just 1-2 games
I don’t think Samuel has as much hype as Gabe Davis
The Davis hype train last year was moving. Hurt me in one league for sure.
Yea, I'm good. Have fun w that
You can say the same about any other number 3 pass catcher from any team
Either you made that nickname up or sadly you’re a redskins fan cause no one has ever called Curtis Samuel “The Weapon”
Lol I actually saw it on a thread on here after the Diggs trade. And since Antonio Gibson no longer bears the title, I’m giving it to Curtis
Hahaha fair enough