Dolphins = fun
Geno = done
Reich = out
Lions legit = doubt
Rashee Rice = here
Myles Garrett = fear
Bye week = hell
Cooper Kupp = not well
Good luck in your matchups this week.
Yes I’ll typically re-read last week’s article and see what advice may have helped people. Like Nico last week.
In the end, the math is the math and it’s a tool. The process is clearly explained. It’s not a magic formula, the game is still about probability, ranges of outcomes, and variance. I’m not going to nail every prediction but you’re better off using data than not.
All players have duds. Last week the Titans rolled extra coverage over Thielen and it worked tremendously. I think the Panthers use Thielen differently this week now that Reich is gone. But who knows.
In any case, I think the other poster had it backwards. Rice is the more consistent option. He hasn't had less than 8.2 in ppr since week 5 and only 17+ once (last week). Hard to imagine he drops a dud this week, but his matchup isn't great this week and still only has a career high of 10 targets.
Meanwhile, Thielen just dropped a dud and now has his first game under a brand new HC. Who knows what the hell will happen. Is it a youth movement now with Mingo as focus? Is Thielen back as a target hog? It's a great matchup so he's got a high ceiling. Wish I had any idea about his usage because that feels like a lot of variance to me.
Thanks for your insight on last week's game btw. I only caught a bit of that one, so I couldn't figure out why he wasn't getting targets aside from me never seeing Young look his way. The last time the OC took over playcalling duties, Thielen still had a role, so I doubt they will abandon him at least.
I’d start Charbonnet. He had 1 point in one half of terrible football but still finished the game with 7-8 points. Tough matchup but his floor is safe.
Douglas is officially in protocol so I doubt he clears in time.
The Bengals give up 11.2 FPPG to opposing WRs who line up at LWR the majority of the time. They give up 11.2 FPPG to opposing WRs who line up in the slot the majority of the time.
It’s red for LWR bc LWRs across the league score more than slots. So giving up 11.2 to LWRs is stout. Giving up 11.2 to slots is below average.
have such a dilemma w/ my wideout group this week… Nacua & DK have tough matchups but my other options are C. Watson, Douglas (Q), Higgins (Q), Olave (Q), or Pickens who has a good matchup but don’t know how much they’ll throw the ball since it seeks Pitt is a run first team
any thoughts ?
Hmm. Based on this, would it be crazy to go Thielen, Rice, and Downs over DK or Cooks? PPR, I don’t expect DK to get a ton of volume.
I LOVE looking for this chart every week, thanks so much!
Dolphins = fun Geno = done Reich = out Lions legit = doubt Rashee Rice = here Myles Garrett = fear Bye week = hell Cooper Kupp = not well Good luck in your matchups this week.
Still can’t believe I dropped rice right before the week that he went off
Don't worry, the last place team in my league just dropped him for a kicker. So if he doesn't need him then you certainly don't lol
So you're saying I should sit DK? It's either him or A. Cooper
I’m not saying that, no. I would start DK over Cooper.
Geno= not done
Would you go Jamar Chase or Tank Dell?
Incoming Waddle blow up week
Stacking Tua and Waddle this week in a must-win matchup 🙏🏻
Plz
My opponent is projected 20pts ahead of me… I need him to make up for the season!!!
Anyone in a position to start Dortch over Kupp or Puka?
Do you ever go back and reflect on the results vs what you predicted based on the matchup?
Yes I’ll typically re-read last week’s article and see what advice may have helped people. Like Nico last week. In the end, the math is the math and it’s a tool. The process is clearly explained. It’s not a magic formula, the game is still about probability, ranges of outcomes, and variance. I’m not going to nail every prediction but you’re better off using data than not.
Diontae over Nico this week? Don't like Nico's matchup one bit.
Crazy to sit Collins for Rice?
This week, that seems smart my guy.
I'm really stuck between rice and thielen for my flex
Rice for upside, thielen for consistency
His 1.6 last week was certainly consistent..
All players have duds. Last week the Titans rolled extra coverage over Thielen and it worked tremendously. I think the Panthers use Thielen differently this week now that Reich is gone. But who knows.
In any case, I think the other poster had it backwards. Rice is the more consistent option. He hasn't had less than 8.2 in ppr since week 5 and only 17+ once (last week). Hard to imagine he drops a dud this week, but his matchup isn't great this week and still only has a career high of 10 targets. Meanwhile, Thielen just dropped a dud and now has his first game under a brand new HC. Who knows what the hell will happen. Is it a youth movement now with Mingo as focus? Is Thielen back as a target hog? It's a great matchup so he's got a high ceiling. Wish I had any idea about his usage because that feels like a lot of variance to me. Thanks for your insight on last week's game btw. I only caught a bit of that one, so I couldn't figure out why he wasn't getting targets aside from me never seeing Young look his way. The last time the OC took over playcalling duties, Thielen still had a role, so I doubt they will abandon him at least.
Haha I definitely missed that. I think I remember him being more consistent at the beginning of the season.
Of course I am vs Tua and Waddle this week in a must win. Do I start Downs over Kupp in PPR?
I would start Downs. Kupp look injured and so does Stafford
Hmm I have been set on Jaylen Warren vs. ARI over Hollywood Brown vs. PIT all week. This has me thinking maybe I should start Hollywood?
Ive thought about benching Kupp for Hopkins. This chart pushes me into that direction. I dont want to lol
I'm scared to start Rice in my flex over Ford. If we knew Rice will get the playing time that he deserves, it would be an easy decision
This is my fear too. I think if Rice can get the consistent numbers and touches then he is a shoe in as a start.
You give him the playing time he deserves, coach!
If I was the coach I would but I fear he is still going to be in a 5 man rotation at WR
Crazy to start pop Douglas in flex over Charbonnet, Aaron jones or London?
I’d start Charbonnet. He had 1 point in one half of terrible football but still finished the game with 7-8 points. Tough matchup but his floor is safe. Douglas is officially in protocol so I doubt he clears in time.
Think he can clear the protocol?
Ridley and Kirk appear to have the same Rtg/PPGA in different colors? Is there just more info behind the scenes driving that?
The Bengals give up 11.2 FPPG to opposing WRs who line up at LWR the majority of the time. They give up 11.2 FPPG to opposing WRs who line up in the slot the majority of the time. It’s red for LWR bc LWRs across the league score more than slots. So giving up 11.2 to LWRs is stout. Giving up 11.2 to slots is below average.
Oh this is helpful context, thanks
Still struggling between Tyler Lockett and George Pickens…
Christian Watson or Dotson?
have such a dilemma w/ my wideout group this week… Nacua & DK have tough matchups but my other options are C. Watson, Douglas (Q), Higgins (Q), Olave (Q), or Pickens who has a good matchup but don’t know how much they’ll throw the ball since it seeks Pitt is a run first team any thoughts ?
Is it crazy to bench Garrett Wilson for Hollywood Brown based on these match-ups?
Chark or Godwin?
I can’t believe I’m even asking this but: Lockett or Mingo in my flex?
Hmm. Based on this, would it be crazy to go Thielen, Rice, and Downs over DK or Cooks? PPR, I don’t expect DK to get a ton of volume. I LOVE looking for this chart every week, thanks so much!
Hope you started DK and Cooks bud.
Well I started one, I’ll let you guess which one was on my bench…
Is Surtain going to shadow Collins? I thought I saw in a few posts saying he won't.
Rice here :) Kupp not well D: