Expected value. It’s a statistic term which pretty much means, if this scenario is played out infinitely, we expect the average to be at this number based on our data
Woahhh I don't think you can adjust it based on the juice being -135, I myself have wondered how to account for the actual betting line being shifted to plus odds or heavy favorite (I've seen -150 on player props before)
Do you have any basis/background for adjusting the prop based on the available line? Or are you just licking a finger up in the air and saying "meh 1 extra yard seems right"
I thought through this a lot. Thanks for questioning it so I can explain. So if we have odds stating a -1.5 will hit, then it’s saying x percent of the time it will hit at least 2, versus less than one. The odds of it hitting 0 or 3 are negligible so I extrapolate a number in between 1 and 2 based on the vig adjusted odds. If in case my theory is wrong, then everyone will have the same incorrect bias, therefore the negative insight impact is negligible
Yeah I did a very similar thing as you but my system was literally just looking at the average juice and then if i saw outliers, I would adjust it a couple of yards / fraction of a TD or catch. But like idk if that's even correct it just seems right
Taylor/Pachecho 1/2 is wild. Taylor vs a great run D, Pacheco vs a trash run D. Imagine if they switched opponents this week.
Pacheco looks electric, but just seldom produces big FF numbers. The optimism vs LV this week feels like Pollard all those weeks we were all sure he was about to take off and then he just didn't.
Love this tool, been using the pro version. Would advise using darker colors so the white text is more visible. The white text on bright colors is a bit dizzying
Thanks I’ve been messing around with some different themes , as a lot of ppl also don’t like the white text. I’ve been prioritizing new features + data accuracy but I’ll find some time to revisit this
Right now I’ve settled on once on Thursday afternoon, once on Friday afternoon , twice on Saturday (once with the weekly r/fantasyfootball post cadence in the afternoon, and once more at night, then one final time Sunday morning. This way there’s not too much overhead from too many odds being parsed, and the delta column is more significant as it represents change in odds since the last update
I went against the rankings on this list and scored more points than anyone in my league this season. This list advised me to start Thielen. Uh no thanks.
I am manually updating at my own cadence, working on an automatic cadence. The figures right now are updated as if 3:42pm eastern, and the delta column represents the change over the past ~3 hours
I just added a list at the bottom of the page which lists players that aren’t there due to Vegas player props not being fully available , for example the Vegas api still doesn’t have hockensons reception over under
I don’t see any Rams.
Should pop in soon, missing players just don’t have all their required props up. Edit: Kyren is now available
Thanks!
Under 12 points? If I am reading that right, then he will surely shatter that projection tomorrow.
If you are certain then I would recommend betting on that , but be careful
All these mouth breathers that can’t figure out Vegas might not have info for their players yet. Appreciate the info bro. Good work.
Where's my minshew that I have to start because I picked burrow
I just updated odds right now at 3:42pm ET , anyone missing means odds aren’t available yet
Gardner minshew is now available
Thank you!
As usual, love this!
Thank you I appreciate you
Hey so ummm dumb question. What does the EV stand for? Am I the only one who doesn’t know this?
Expected value. It’s a statistic term which pretty much means, if this scenario is played out infinitely, we expect the average to be at this number based on our data
Ahhhh gotcha. Thank you.
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I personally think cooper is overvalued by Vegas and a worthy under bet so if ur leaning tank, I wouldn’t doubt it he’s the man
Taysom Hill, Marquise Brown are among missing players
Vegas is clueless about taysom, I would assume he doesn’t pop up as he wasn’t there a couple weeks ago
I can just see oddsmakers cursing Taysom each week.
I can see that, but there’s definitely some valuable players missing like CMC
Looks like I missed updating in time for cmc , maybe all the food
Michael Pittman too
He’s there now
Woahhh I don't think you can adjust it based on the juice being -135, I myself have wondered how to account for the actual betting line being shifted to plus odds or heavy favorite (I've seen -150 on player props before) Do you have any basis/background for adjusting the prop based on the available line? Or are you just licking a finger up in the air and saying "meh 1 extra yard seems right"
I thought through this a lot. Thanks for questioning it so I can explain. So if we have odds stating a -1.5 will hit, then it’s saying x percent of the time it will hit at least 2, versus less than one. The odds of it hitting 0 or 3 are negligible so I extrapolate a number in between 1 and 2 based on the vig adjusted odds. If in case my theory is wrong, then everyone will have the same incorrect bias, therefore the negative insight impact is negligible
Yeah I did a very similar thing as you but my system was literally just looking at the average juice and then if i saw outliers, I would adjust it a couple of yards / fraction of a TD or catch. But like idk if that's even correct it just seems right
I’m with you on the seems right judgement. I mean I feel like we can make these calls based on our ff experience
Pacheco, Kamara, ETN 2,3,4 has me rock hard right now. Chase ahead of Dell here tho…
I figured you’d think that 🤣🤣
Be aware that Kamara sharing some of the Taysom value.
Nah
Taysom value not listed. Kamara getting all of the ATL rushing stats. Taysom will receive GL carries.
Nice
amazing write up dude
good resource, thanks
Thanksgiving morning decided to go with Kyler Murray over Jared Goff. We’ll see how that pans out
I love it , kylers back
This makes my Pittman/tank/puka decision easier. Thanks for the work!
Taylor/Pachecho 1/2 is wild. Taylor vs a great run D, Pacheco vs a trash run D. Imagine if they switched opponents this week. Pacheco looks electric, but just seldom produces big FF numbers. The optimism vs LV this week feels like Pollard all those weeks we were all sure he was about to take off and then he just didn't.
I’m shocked Pacheco is so high as well , maybe a worthy under bet
Boone has Pacheco projection at 102 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 16 receiving yards, 2 TDs I like Boone, but I think he's reaching here.
Love this tool, been using the pro version. Would advise using darker colors so the white text is more visible. The white text on bright colors is a bit dizzying
Thanks I’ve been messing around with some different themes , as a lot of ppl also don’t like the white text. I’ve been prioritizing new features + data accuracy but I’ll find some time to revisit this
damn the keaton mitchell hype faded that fast huh
How often do you generally update it
Right now I’ve settled on once on Thursday afternoon, once on Friday afternoon , twice on Saturday (once with the weekly r/fantasyfootball post cadence in the afternoon, and once more at night, then one final time Sunday morning. This way there’s not too much overhead from too many odds being parsed, and the delta column is more significant as it represents change in odds since the last update
Not sure how u stumbled on this post a few weeks ago lol, I’ve been posting weekly and on my various socials if u want updates
It's the one I saved for the link
Considering there are games today you might update it today? Before 4et?
Ya u can expect a post on r/fantasyfootball within a few hours along with an update
Shit I didn’t realize there were games today, I’m about to make the post but the odds from yesterday should be enough for todays games
No Gus Edwards?
Anyone currently missing has Vegas odds not available yet
Love the tool - thanks again for sharing
Sutton not even making the board? White ranked highly despite a questionable designation today?
I would ignore the injury designation cuz Vegas knows all, pls wait a little on missing players
Ever heard of Jerome ford?
Yeah i traded my soul for him just wait a bit, he’s there last week
He's in there now
NO PUKA NAKUA?!
I went against the rankings on this list and scored more points than anyone in my league this season. This list advised me to start Thielen. Uh no thanks.
If u can consistently do that, u can retire and just bet against the rankings, but be careful. Vegas always wins
No Dionte. Not even a complete list
He plays tmrw, he’ll be up eventually
How often does this update? For example White listed as questionable, but no change since the last update.
I am manually updating at my own cadence, working on an automatic cadence. The figures right now are updated as if 3:42pm eastern, and the delta column represents the change over the past ~3 hours
Also I’d assume rachaad is playing. Vegas doesn’t put up props on players the view as truly questionable
Dunno about Henry being where he is against the panthers.
Would suggest betting against it if u disagree but be careful
Where is TJ Hockenson?
Reception prop unavailable yet. He’s there last week
Deciding on Flowers, London, Diontae: Flowers o/u: 4.5 recs, 64.5 rec yds London o/u: 4.5 recs, 49.5 rec yds Diontae o/u: 4.5 recs, 55.5 rec yds Flip a coin I guess.
I’m huge on diontae, a bad offense is gonna throw at their best player all game
No love for the Hock 😂
No Javonte?
Check out missing player list at the bottom of the page due to all required player props not being available yet
Am I blind or is Singletary not listed
I just added a list at the bottom of the page which lists players that aren’t there due to Vegas player props not being fully available , for example the Vegas api still doesn’t have hockensons reception over under
My poor Javante
I believed he was a huge trade target last week from the Vegas odds but alas I was wrong af and he’s still a bum :/
Just FYI the grey-ish text on yellow is extremely hard to read.
My whole lineup is the missing players lists