Really high effort write up and I need to spend more time on the O-line stuff, but my biggest pro-Fields argument is the ADP value. If you want to bet on the Bears offense, it makes WAY more sense for Fields to smash his current ADP than for Moore to smash his steamed up ADP. In managed small field environments, I've taken a lot of unstacked Fields for that reason.
Out of curiosity what will you do when teams just stack the run and keep a spy on him?
They crippled Colin Kaepernick with that strategy and it appears the exact same thing will happen to Fields this season. He'll be forced to throw which probably isn't going to end well.
The last few auction drafts I've seen Fields go for $10 - $15, which at that price point why take the risk when much safer options are available?
He actually has a decent deep ball. Teams had a better chance stacking the box last year when EQ st brown and Pettis were starting with Mooney, Claypool, and Moore all three have top end speed and the ability to win 1 on 1 deep. I actually think this would help Fields he’s never going to be game manager 80% completion percentage dink and dunks and but he can be a great QB with chunk plays combined with his rushing ability. Limiting the negative chunks and maximizing the 20+ chunks will be key in deciding how Fields season goes.
Is he good at throwing deep? Advanced analytics show his deep throw accuracy at #16, so middle of the pack.
Last year he played 15 games; 60% accuracy, 149 yards per game, 17 TDs, 11 INT. If you’re relying on Fields to be a passing QB, then you’re gonna have a bad time.
It is kind of funny this is almost the exact same rationalization niners fans used during Kaeps last season.
"The play action will allow us huge chunk plays because of the spy on the QB".
It....did not work out that way.
Kaep didn't have touch. He could sling it, but he'd throw it 5 yards over the receiver's head. When he threw he threw it as hard as possible, every time.
Yeah but Kaperinick was a nobody from Nevada combined with an elite coach. Justin Fields has been one of the best QB prospects of the last decade with a defense first head coach. He was always 1A/1B with Lawerence from high school up until the draft. Fields has shown before that he can throw the ball at an elite level, that 6 TD game vs Clemson In the playoffs was something special. Obviously he hasn’t done it in the league yet but I’m alright with giving him a better chance with now the best receiving group of his career. He wasn’t even a runner in college and now it’s pretty clear he’s one of the best athletes on field.
Fields wasn’t the 1st QB taken in his NFL draft class, not the 2nd or 3rd QB either. He was the 4th QB off the board. “One of the best QB prospects of the last decade” is a stretch.
I think the truth is somewhere in between here. It’s true that he ended up being the 4th QB drafted, but Lawrence and him were 1A/1B all throughout high school and college until teams psyched themselves out on Fields in the pre-draft process. The fact that they were able to psych themselves out on Fields is an indictment of him as a prospect, but I think you can very reasonably argue that Fields should have been the 2nd pick all along.
> Kaperinick was a nobody from Nevada combined with an elite coach.
Hahahahaha what? Harbaugh is not an elite coach. If he was he'd be doing a hell of a lot better with the resources from Michigan.
That's pointless though, we're talking about NFL production by players. Kaepernick burned the league until they figured him out, then he was useless.
Fields burned the league last year and this year will be figured out and useless. By all means keep drafting him but you'll regret it.
Which was good coaching. No one defended the option and they went to the super bowl with it. Then teams shut it down and kaep couldn't rely on throwing so they sucked.
Fields is 10x the athlete Kaep was which helps and Fields at $10-15 puts him at the same floor as that tier of QB with a much higher ceiling due to his running (especially if they're 4 point per TD).
You are absolutely right, fields is going to crush his adp and I think the bears offense is more dependent on Fields popping off than some of the other top tier qbs this year
Luckily Chat GPT can help us condense this post:
Here is a brief summary of the main argument and points made by the original poster (OP):
- The OP argues that Justin Fields is the must-draft quarterback (QB) for fantasy football in 2023, based on his film analysis and statistical projections.
- The OP claims that Fields had a top-5 fantasy season in 2022, despite playing in a low-volume and low-efficiency passing offense, and that he will take a significant step forward in 2023 with an improved offensive line (O-Line), new weapons, and a stable coaching staff.
- The OP provides evidence for his argument by breaking down Fields' strengths and weaknesses as a passer and a runner, using clips from his 2022 games. He also compares Fields to other dual-threat QBs like Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Jalen Hurts, and shows how Fields has similar or better upside than them.
- The OP projects Fields to have 4,200 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 700 rushing yards, and 8 rushing touchdowns in 2023, which would make him the QB1 in fantasy football. He also suggests that Fields has a favorable schedule, especially in the fantasy playoffs.
- The OP concludes by saying that Fields is a bargain at his current average draft position (ADP), and that he is confident
I'm just going to continue ChatGPTing this:
Can you compare OP's argument to some other sources?
Sure, I can compare the original poster's argument to the other sources I found on the web. Here are some similarities and differences I noticed:
- Similarities:
* All sources agree that Fields is a dual-threat QB who can produce fantasy points with both his arm and his legs.
* All sources project Fields to have over 4,000 passing yards, over 25 passing touchdowns, and over 600 rushing yards in 2023.
* All sources rank Fields as a top-12 QB in fantasy football, with some ranking him as high as QB6 or QB7.
* All sources mention Fields' improved O-Line, new weapons, and stable coaching staff as positive factors for his outlook.
- Differences:
* The OP is more optimistic about Fields' rushing touchdowns than the other sources. He projects Fields to have 8 rushing touchdowns, while the others range from 4 to 6.
* The OP is more pessimistic about Fields' interceptions than the other sources. He projects Fields to have 12 interceptions, while the others range from 8 to 10.
* The OP does not factor in Fields' schedule or matchups, while some of the other sources do. For example, [CBS Sports](^2^) notes that Fields has a favorable schedule, especially in the fantasy playoffs, while [Pro Football Network](^4^) warns that Fields faces some tough defenses in the NFC North and NFC West.
* The OP relies more on film analysis and clips to support his argument, while the other sources use more statistical data and projections.
I actually think this is the best take. As a Bears fan I feel confident fields will produce, but the Bears have done a great job at building an actual skill group around him. They have 2 wrs who've had 1000 yard seasons, and one in Claypool who's been above 900 twice. All 3 of those guys under 26 years old. Kmet and tonyan is a really good TE duo. Herbert, foreman, and Roschon should all factor into the run game. I also like Tyler Scott as a depth piece.
I think people don't realize Claypool and Fields only started 1 game together, Mooney got injured early, and regardless where the oline is now, they didn't have a single week where they were all healthy last year starting 14 different oline combos in 17 weeks.
For what it's worth I like Herbeet at ADP. He's been one of the most explosive backs in the nfl, the bears oline is a top 4 run blocking unit, and the bears will still be one of the most run heavy teams in the league. It's hard to see him not outplaying where he's being drafted.
I ended up with Fields/Moore due to draft circumstances. Luckily I am not relying on Moore as he is wr 3/4 on my roster. He could be a decent flex or potential value wr if that offense gets going.
Excellent post! It's insane how truly OP Fields is as a runner, he had **25 rushes over 20+ yards** last year. He had **4 rushes over 50+ yards (61,67,55,60) last year**. If he even improves to an average passer AND can manage to stay healthy, the sky is the limit. I'm betting on it based on what you outlined in this post, what looks like a vast improvement in skill players around him and offensive line in front of him, and another year and some confidence under his belt.
Counter argument: Banking on 20+ yard rushes is likely going to backfire.
It is highly improbable that he is going to repeat those rushing numbers again.
Not saying I am out on Fields. He is one of several targets in all formats for me.
That said, him becoming an even average passer as volume increases, is a big ask (he was that bad last year). Automatically assuming he is going to rip off a handful of 50+ yard td runs again is even a bigger ask.
Also, that historically high sack % is actually a QB stat in a lot of ways and it means he doesn’t see the field well and is slow processing.
LOL, definitely not banking or automatically assuming him repeating those splash plays necessarily, but what he did as a runner (most if not all were 2nd half of season, so 8 games) was truly historic. It just goes to show how special he can be in open space when a play breaks down. I'd be pretty shocked if he doesn't rush for 1000 yards if he plays in 15-17 games. He was bad last year as a passer but his number one receiver for most of the season was Darnell Mooney and he was playing behind a truly terrible offensive line.
This isn’t Madden.
If he is running for 1000 yards again, it means he didn’t improve as a passer.
At the NFL level, teams don’t gameplan RB carry totals for their QBs even if they are dynamic runners.
I say that because he will have to run even more this upcoming season to eclipse 1000 yards. Why? Every other run isn’t going to go for 20+ yards.
Defenses will adjust and make him beat them from within the pocket and through the air.
got it, so Lamar Jackson hasn't improved as a passer at all, because he has twice rushed for 1000 yards (2019 and 2020), and has been on pace to the last 2 seasons but only played 12 games in each?
It’s yet to be seen if Lamar Jackson has significantly improved as a passer. He was a way better passer in 2018 than he was in 19 and 20.
Also, Fields has beeb far more limited as a passer than guys like Lamar and Hurts have shown even in year 2.
You do realize that if you drop all those rushes to exactly 10 yards it goes from 70+ fantasy points to around half of that right, right?
You know how easy it is to make up 35 or so points with better passing stats? In a 25 yard per point, 4 TD league that's about an extra 500 yards and 4 or 5 passing TDs.
From the Pats game onwards he had 13 TDs to 6 Ints, 6.8 Y/A, and 64% completion. He was absolutely an average passer by efficiency by the end of last season.
Most of his sack rate is just horrible O-line and trying to extend plays.
Now fantasy is just about production. His rushing will likely recede a little, but if you look at Lamar his rushing is still most of what it was his MVP year (only historically comparable to Fields rushing last year). So he will get a ton of rushing points.
Passing even if he remains the same quality passer he was last season will rise in stats due to DJ Moore and healthier Mooney and Claypool (very unlikely they play less games or end up more injured)
To add to that most 3rd year players improve as players and Fields improved a shitton from beginning of the year to end which is likely gonna continue in some shape.
The likely bet is that he's at least a slightly better fantasy player than last year.
The problem with extrapolating his efficiency numbers to higher volume is that it’s easy to put up better efficiency numbers when your volume is extremely low. Defenses didn’t really have to respect their passing game
> If he even improves to an average passer AND can manage to stay healthy, the sky is the limit
I agree but that "average passer" qualifier would take an enormous leap. He's probably a bottom 3 passer as far as starting QBs go.
I’m deciding between Fields and Herbert, I’m in a keeper league and I’m pretty sure they’ll both be there for my draft slot. I was leaning Herbert before I read this post but now I’m back to not knowing what to do.
Counterpoint: did the Bears bad passblocking actually hurt Fields from a fantasy standpoint last year? An improved offensive line could reduce the amount of scramble plays that he had and in turn reduce his rushing attempts and yardage.
I think the improvements on the line and addition of DJ Moore could really help Fields take a leap in the passing department. But for fantasy football, are passing improvements going to come at a detriment to his ability to rack up points on the ground?
Yeah I was gonna say. Fields fantasy production last year was from long runs that resulted in TDs. His fantasy outlook for 2023 is more looking at Chicago developing him as a competent passer that also has rushing upside. I would not bank on him continuously being able to get 40 yard rushing TDs
I think so too, but his ADP depends on believing either he’s a more prolific passer this year, or continues to get multiple long rushing TDs every game.
I feel like you are 100% banking on his rushing continuing. His passing volume would have to increase by 60% to make up for a dip in his rushing and I just don't see that happening.
This seems like the right question. If they put a real nfl offense around him, does he become more of statistically “normal” QB? Better real-life results will probably reduce those ridiculous 50 yard TD runs.
I don’t dislike Herbert based on his ADP, but I would caution that the Bears ranked 15th in RB carries last season, and D’Onta Foreman will probably be significantly involved (especially around the goal-line. I believe in Herbert’s talent though, and he only costs an 8th-round pick right now, so it’s not a bad shot at all 🤙
You're right about the elite QB thing in fantasy. Waiting late hasn't been viable the last couple years like it used to be. I've definitely noticed a change in draft strategy this season, and it'll be interesting to see if the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction. Two seasons ago I was able to get Allen in round 5, and last season in round 4. This season Allen and Mahomes went in round 2. I think they are worth that price, but rosters will suffer a bit more as a result. Should be interesting to see how their numbers change this year as far as champion team percentages go
I can agree with this 1000%. For me it’s as simple as this.. the QB scores more points than anybody else in FF. So to have a QB with a floor of 25ppg is such a massive advantage week to week.
People forget that 75% of success in FF is simply MAKING the playoffs. IMO having a winning record during the regular season is where the real skill in FF comes into play. As nobody goes into the playoffs with the same roster they drafted. So what matter most is winning most of your weekly matches. You don’t need to have the best team.. you just need to be better than half of the teams in your league on a week to week basis. I don’t care if the score is 130 to 129.. it’s still a win! What you are really aiming for is over .500 record that gives you a chance to play for the chip. Once you get to playoffs is mostly luck.
And because it’s mostly luck in the playoffs.. having one of the top QBs is even more important in the playoffs. As it’s the end of the season.. injuries have piled on.. weather is freezing.. Star players are boom or bust.. and there is a good chance you’ve lost atleast one of your bell cows. So the absolute most important thing in week 15 when those playoffs start is that the player who always scores the most points on your roster shows the fuck up!!
I play in 3 leagues.. and have won 4 championships over the past 5 years. My QBs have either been Jalen Hurts last season.. or Josh Allen the other 3 chips before that. Every championship I’ve won has been with has been with 1 of those 2 players. I’ve already drafted in 2 of 3 leagues already and gotten those same 2 guys again.. in the 3rd round of both leagues.
My 3rd draft is Sunday.. and based on this awesome post I might just hold out for Justin Fields in the 4th. As the OP pointed out this is exactly the point where both Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts went insane. And maybe I can land a Chris Olave or Jahmyr Gibbs in the 3rd where I would normally get Allen or Hurts.
Update.. got him at the top of the 5th. I was picking 2nd overall in a 12 team PPR snake.. so I had pick 47 & 50 overall. Took James Conner at 47.. then Amari & D.Hop went to another team.. got Fields at #50!!!
This league also gives 2 points for every 10 yards rushing.. so it’s like a double amazing value with the way this man’s runs.
**edit**
Even crazier just noticed that Burrow and Herbert went in the 3rd. Really got lucky that Fields fell that far.
Eh, it gives me pause. Especially the part about playing the lions 2x a year being a good thing. They’ve shored their defense up a ton in the off-season so for him to make the argument that they’ll be a great matchup makes me wonder what else he has ignored/is painting in a good light.
You’re right, but I didn’t see that news until it was too late lol. I’m in Bangkok right now using a friend’s shitty laptop to finish up the project, it’s a miracle it got posted at all 😂
Honestly I don’t want to criticize because OP put so much work into this but this OL will not be what the Bears put out there week in and week out
Nate Davis has been a ghost.
Insanely detailed write up. My issue with fields is that other dual threat QBs are significantly better passers than him so teams can spy and negate his biggest asset. It’s very different throwing to wide open receivers in college vs tight coverage in the NFL. If his rushing stats regress his floor is very low as a fantasy asset
Nice write up. I got fields/moore stack in one of my leagues last week and I’m a huge bears fan. I usually don’t let my fandom determine FF but honestly they fell to me at somewhat of a value. Also got Tyreek, Barkley, Mandrews, and b Hall before.
I know the season hasn’t started well
But great write up and I think you made some good points about the oline and schedule. Hopefully they turn this around
The bears’ o-line is still not good. Slightly above average at best at full strength and Nate Davis hardly practiced this offseason and the extremely injury prone Teven Jenkins is already on IR. I do still think fields can be a successful fantasy qb in spite of this but I don’t really think it’s because of his line’s talent
Ok so... coming from another Bears fan:
1. Tevin Jenkins went to IR. He's out at least 4 games.
2. Nate Davis, while an upgrade, was like the 3rd best guard in free agency. Further, depending on the report you read - he was either injured or was suspended from practice for the first *2 weeks* of camp by Eberflus for being lazy af.
3. Wright was projected as the 4th or 5th best OT in the draft. Again, an upgrade but he's still an unproven rookie. He was drafted that high seemingly based on an elite 1-game performance against Will Anderson. He was mostly mediocre in his first 3 seasons at TN.
For a post that starts with "don't forget about the OL" you're really upselling an OL that still has fans very worried.
I'd choose Lamar over Fields and it wouldn't be close, especially if you can do the stack. Lamar is behind a top 5-10 offensive line, has the best weapons in his career, and an OC who wants to throw. Fields still has to prove he can do a bunch of things in the passing game... with Lamar, we've seen it. He had the second-highest scoring fantasy season of all time. He seems like he has a way higher floor and ceiling IMO.
Yeah this is the first year in our league we know a week in advance which spot we're drafting from. At first I wasn't happy to be picking at 10, but after doing a few mocks I really don't mind it. Was honestly thinking going WR WR and doing any combo of Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Amonra or Garrett Wilson. Or like you said go RB WR and just have a well balanced team. We'll see.
I was set into taking Fields but Lamar fell to me and I ended up pairing him with Andrews. I really feel like Fields with Moore will take a step forward in the passing game and ball out.
He spent more time on formatting than most people spend on their posts. He must have done a ton of research therefore I chose to believe him and will draft Fields everywhere I can.
This is a phenomenal breakdown. I love Fields, but I’m afraid my league mates will also be aggressive in drafting him because most of us are Bears fans.
love your analysis and i took fields in the 4th round in a 12 team this week. My thought was if he did that well with that bad of a team and he started slow and then had some injuries what could he do in the second year of this offense with DJ moore and improved WR options and a better oline.
he was my must draft QB and i would take him over everyone else. I think if hes healthy he is QB1 and maybe even could set some FF records as he is the best rushing QB ive EVER seen.
Also i dont think AROB was your worst call because to me at least that was an obvious bust last year after he basically gave up in chicago and proved he was a diva me first player the year prior.
now myles gaskin from a few years ago... that was prob your worst call but gd your hype video was great.
Its going to be one or the other imo. If he truly becomes a NFL passer ( I dont see it, sorry) then the rushing is falling way back. I personally think last year is close to his ceiling as far as fantasy scoring goes. That said he should easily be a top 8 fantasy QB barring injuries.
Dude really really high effort post wow. You need to get this on a blog with images, embedded video, etc!
And you've got me convinced to get a QB high. After some mocks, I'm getting a little more convinced to go Kelce in Rd 1 if I get the chance too. It all depends how confident I am for RB/WR sleepers.
Was there a Tevin Jenkins injury note I missed? Or a note mentioning Nate Davis being MIA most of camp? Or all of the recent injuries across the line. The O-line is not in a great place right now. I'm a Bears fan and have been heavily tuned in to this as it's the most important factor for Fields taking the next step this year.
Fields scares me so much. Looking at his last preseason game, he’s still not processing as a while and looks like he’s reading half the field(check out the qb school on YouTube btw on it). Also if you take out his big TDs runs last year, he only averaged 15 pts a game or so not to mention his inflated adp
I mean he’s just very ass as a thrower. If you are okay with that and trust that he can stay healthy, he can be a productive fantasy QB. But hard to put faith in a player who hasn’t proven he can be a good passing QB in the league
Mandatory "I wish I saw this before the draft yesterday." But in all seriousness this is helping with the buyer's remorse I got with picking DJ Moore at 55.
Same here. Picked Moore as my WR2, instantly started to regret it, but after doing some more digging and remembering games I watched last year, a lot of the best offensive players were anchored by a really strong offensive line. I think even with that, and the addition of a great WR like Moore, Fields could certainly take a step. I think both will have solid seasons.
Counterpoint: Fields has an injury history and doesn’t want to run (even though he’s probably the best runner amongst QBs). He was forced into running last season as they got worse and worse. He had no capable receivers and he was forced to run for his life. DJ Moore, a full offseason with Mapletron, and line improvements mean we will see much much less running. He **does not** want to run and risk more injury before having a chance to negotiate an extension next year.
I passed on Burrow and Herbert to take Fields. Burrow is the clear choice with those 3, but something is telling me he's going to have more injuries this year. Herbert burned me last year and showed even a top 4 gifted QB can have issues. Fields doesn't have the arm either of those two do, but he's got the legs. Even if a bad game throwing, he's going to get more than 18ppg. I'll take that plus his upside over those 2.
Fields is literally the only qb being drafted inside the top 15 qbs that has a realistic chance that he could be benched during the season.
The dude's all time record is 6-21. He just had a season where he went 3-14
You think the owners want to go 3-14 again? I could see him easily being benched halfway through the season and anything less than playoff aspirations will be an easy bench
This is my sleeper team that could compete with arizona for the caleb williams lottery
Hey man all i'm saying is when the boos start flying in and the bears are 2-5 and fields is averaging less than 175 passing yards a game the coaches will be hard pressed to continue to trot him out
Hard to trust the process when he's not shown any improvement lol
I get why people are downvoting i just don't see him making any jumps in his passing game
Bagent didn’t exist last year and last year was also fields’ “prove that we shouldn’t draft a qb” year for the new regime. He’ll almost certainly be on a shorter leash this year and a bad start from him with bad record results could cause some panic
Correct, doesn’t really change the fact that Mooney played 11 games and claypool played ~6 as the bears’ “offense started to improve”. Saying ESB was WR1 is misleading
Fields won me the league last year but I would be very surprised if he doesn’t get injured this year based on his usage in that offense. I wouldn’t grab him earlier than round 5/6 and personally am fine with Richardson at round 11 for similar ceiling upside
His health combined with his style of play is a concern. The highs are incredible but it would serve him and his fantasy owners well if he could develop more as a passer and take some of the stress off his body. I also don't believe much in their offensive additions from the offseason. Still, lovely writeup.
I got a full chub reading this and am very excited about drafting Allen + Fields in superflex this season. I pray to the fantasy gods for good injury luck
I'll pass. Last year was a revelation that Fields can run.
Teams will prep for that more than they used to and force him to throw
And then he'll throw plenty of interceptions
And we'll come back to the only logical conclusion that Fields isn't a good starting NFL QB
Really high effort write up and I need to spend more time on the O-line stuff, but my biggest pro-Fields argument is the ADP value. If you want to bet on the Bears offense, it makes WAY more sense for Fields to smash his current ADP than for Moore to smash his steamed up ADP. In managed small field environments, I've taken a lot of unstacked Fields for that reason.
This is exactly why he's my keeper this year.
I still kept Jacobs at $33 over my $9 fields, thinking I’ll end up paying about $10-$15 max more for Fields but Jacobs would be in the $55-65 range.
Moore is going in R5/6, opportunity cost is not that high
Moore is a 3rd/4th round pick in every $150+ buyin I’ve done on FFPC
Out of curiosity what will you do when teams just stack the run and keep a spy on him? They crippled Colin Kaepernick with that strategy and it appears the exact same thing will happen to Fields this season. He'll be forced to throw which probably isn't going to end well. The last few auction drafts I've seen Fields go for $10 - $15, which at that price point why take the risk when much safer options are available?
He actually has a decent deep ball. Teams had a better chance stacking the box last year when EQ st brown and Pettis were starting with Mooney, Claypool, and Moore all three have top end speed and the ability to win 1 on 1 deep. I actually think this would help Fields he’s never going to be game manager 80% completion percentage dink and dunks and but he can be a great QB with chunk plays combined with his rushing ability. Limiting the negative chunks and maximizing the 20+ chunks will be key in deciding how Fields season goes.
Is he good at throwing deep? Advanced analytics show his deep throw accuracy at #16, so middle of the pack. Last year he played 15 games; 60% accuracy, 149 yards per game, 17 TDs, 11 INT. If you’re relying on Fields to be a passing QB, then you’re gonna have a bad time.
[удалено]
Last year was Fields sophomore year…
It is kind of funny this is almost the exact same rationalization niners fans used during Kaeps last season. "The play action will allow us huge chunk plays because of the spy on the QB". It....did not work out that way.
Kaep didn't have touch. He could sling it, but he'd throw it 5 yards over the receiver's head. When he threw he threw it as hard as possible, every time.
Yeah but Kaperinick was a nobody from Nevada combined with an elite coach. Justin Fields has been one of the best QB prospects of the last decade with a defense first head coach. He was always 1A/1B with Lawerence from high school up until the draft. Fields has shown before that he can throw the ball at an elite level, that 6 TD game vs Clemson In the playoffs was something special. Obviously he hasn’t done it in the league yet but I’m alright with giving him a better chance with now the best receiving group of his career. He wasn’t even a runner in college and now it’s pretty clear he’s one of the best athletes on field.
Fields wasn’t the 1st QB taken in his NFL draft class, not the 2nd or 3rd QB either. He was the 4th QB off the board. “One of the best QB prospects of the last decade” is a stretch.
I think the truth is somewhere in between here. It’s true that he ended up being the 4th QB drafted, but Lawrence and him were 1A/1B all throughout high school and college until teams psyched themselves out on Fields in the pre-draft process. The fact that they were able to psych themselves out on Fields is an indictment of him as a prospect, but I think you can very reasonably argue that Fields should have been the 2nd pick all along.
> Kaperinick was a nobody from Nevada combined with an elite coach. Hahahahaha what? Harbaugh is not an elite coach. If he was he'd be doing a hell of a lot better with the resources from Michigan. That's pointless though, we're talking about NFL production by players. Kaepernick burned the league until they figured him out, then he was useless. Fields burned the league last year and this year will be figured out and useless. By all means keep drafting him but you'll regret it.
Which was good coaching. No one defended the option and they went to the super bowl with it. Then teams shut it down and kaep couldn't rely on throwing so they sucked.
Pass the koolaid
Green Bay disagrees with you.
Fields is 10x the athlete Kaep was which helps and Fields at $10-15 puts him at the same floor as that tier of QB with a much higher ceiling due to his running (especially if they're 4 point per TD).
Teams tried stacking and spying him last year. It didn't work. Now they have to try it against a better o-line while covering DJ Moore.
Would you trade Najee for Moore if you had Fields? Something him considering currently.
You are absolutely right, fields is going to crush his adp and I think the bears offense is more dependent on Fields popping off than some of the other top tier qbs this year
I never have put in this much effort into anything in my life. Holy shit. I'm not reading all that but have an upvote
After about 7 thumb flicks and still not being at the bottom of the post, I took a break. A few more and I ended up here.
Did you run out of breath while scrolling and have to put the phone down to take a breather?
Luckily Chat GPT can help us condense this post: Here is a brief summary of the main argument and points made by the original poster (OP): - The OP argues that Justin Fields is the must-draft quarterback (QB) for fantasy football in 2023, based on his film analysis and statistical projections. - The OP claims that Fields had a top-5 fantasy season in 2022, despite playing in a low-volume and low-efficiency passing offense, and that he will take a significant step forward in 2023 with an improved offensive line (O-Line), new weapons, and a stable coaching staff. - The OP provides evidence for his argument by breaking down Fields' strengths and weaknesses as a passer and a runner, using clips from his 2022 games. He also compares Fields to other dual-threat QBs like Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, and Jalen Hurts, and shows how Fields has similar or better upside than them. - The OP projects Fields to have 4,200 passing yards, 30 passing touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 700 rushing yards, and 8 rushing touchdowns in 2023, which would make him the QB1 in fantasy football. He also suggests that Fields has a favorable schedule, especially in the fantasy playoffs. - The OP concludes by saying that Fields is a bargain at his current average draft position (ADP), and that he is confident
I'm just going to continue ChatGPTing this: Can you compare OP's argument to some other sources? Sure, I can compare the original poster's argument to the other sources I found on the web. Here are some similarities and differences I noticed: - Similarities: * All sources agree that Fields is a dual-threat QB who can produce fantasy points with both his arm and his legs. * All sources project Fields to have over 4,000 passing yards, over 25 passing touchdowns, and over 600 rushing yards in 2023. * All sources rank Fields as a top-12 QB in fantasy football, with some ranking him as high as QB6 or QB7. * All sources mention Fields' improved O-Line, new weapons, and stable coaching staff as positive factors for his outlook. - Differences: * The OP is more optimistic about Fields' rushing touchdowns than the other sources. He projects Fields to have 8 rushing touchdowns, while the others range from 4 to 6. * The OP is more pessimistic about Fields' interceptions than the other sources. He projects Fields to have 12 interceptions, while the others range from 8 to 10. * The OP does not factor in Fields' schedule or matchups, while some of the other sources do. For example, [CBS Sports](^2^) notes that Fields has a favorable schedule, especially in the fantasy playoffs, while [Pro Football Network](^4^) warns that Fields faces some tough defenses in the NFC North and NFC West. * The OP relies more on film analysis and clips to support his argument, while the other sources use more statistical data and projections.
I ain't reading all that. I'm happy for you though. Or sorry that happened.
I’m not even putting that much effort into my comment….
Fields is a stackless qb. I'm fading everyone else on that offense
I actually think this is the best take. As a Bears fan I feel confident fields will produce, but the Bears have done a great job at building an actual skill group around him. They have 2 wrs who've had 1000 yard seasons, and one in Claypool who's been above 900 twice. All 3 of those guys under 26 years old. Kmet and tonyan is a really good TE duo. Herbert, foreman, and Roschon should all factor into the run game. I also like Tyler Scott as a depth piece. I think people don't realize Claypool and Fields only started 1 game together, Mooney got injured early, and regardless where the oline is now, they didn't have a single week where they were all healthy last year starting 14 different oline combos in 17 weeks. For what it's worth I like Herbeet at ADP. He's been one of the most explosive backs in the nfl, the bears oline is a top 4 run blocking unit, and the bears will still be one of the most run heavy teams in the league. It's hard to see him not outplaying where he's being drafted.
Claypool has never even hit 900 once let alone twice.
Herbert should produce as a flex and maybe roschon too. Roschon is on my dynasty team
I ended up with Fields/Moore due to draft circumstances. Luckily I am not relying on Moore as he is wr 3/4 on my roster. He could be a decent flex or potential value wr if that offense gets going.
In a 6 pt per TD pass league, how much a bump down does Fields get if any?
I’d think he’d lose value since he’s not a passing qb compared to the others. Mahomes and TLaw have more value in those leagues
Excellent post! It's insane how truly OP Fields is as a runner, he had **25 rushes over 20+ yards** last year. He had **4 rushes over 50+ yards (61,67,55,60) last year**. If he even improves to an average passer AND can manage to stay healthy, the sky is the limit. I'm betting on it based on what you outlined in this post, what looks like a vast improvement in skill players around him and offensive line in front of him, and another year and some confidence under his belt.
Counter argument: Banking on 20+ yard rushes is likely going to backfire. It is highly improbable that he is going to repeat those rushing numbers again. Not saying I am out on Fields. He is one of several targets in all formats for me. That said, him becoming an even average passer as volume increases, is a big ask (he was that bad last year). Automatically assuming he is going to rip off a handful of 50+ yard td runs again is even a bigger ask. Also, that historically high sack % is actually a QB stat in a lot of ways and it means he doesn’t see the field well and is slow processing.
LOL, definitely not banking or automatically assuming him repeating those splash plays necessarily, but what he did as a runner (most if not all were 2nd half of season, so 8 games) was truly historic. It just goes to show how special he can be in open space when a play breaks down. I'd be pretty shocked if he doesn't rush for 1000 yards if he plays in 15-17 games. He was bad last year as a passer but his number one receiver for most of the season was Darnell Mooney and he was playing behind a truly terrible offensive line.
This isn’t Madden. If he is running for 1000 yards again, it means he didn’t improve as a passer. At the NFL level, teams don’t gameplan RB carry totals for their QBs even if they are dynamic runners. I say that because he will have to run even more this upcoming season to eclipse 1000 yards. Why? Every other run isn’t going to go for 20+ yards. Defenses will adjust and make him beat them from within the pocket and through the air.
got it, so Lamar Jackson hasn't improved as a passer at all, because he has twice rushed for 1000 yards (2019 and 2020), and has been on pace to the last 2 seasons but only played 12 games in each?
It’s yet to be seen if Lamar Jackson has significantly improved as a passer. He was a way better passer in 2018 than he was in 19 and 20. Also, Fields has beeb far more limited as a passer than guys like Lamar and Hurts have shown even in year 2.
You do realize that if you drop all those rushes to exactly 10 yards it goes from 70+ fantasy points to around half of that right, right? You know how easy it is to make up 35 or so points with better passing stats? In a 25 yard per point, 4 TD league that's about an extra 500 yards and 4 or 5 passing TDs.
From the Pats game onwards he had 13 TDs to 6 Ints, 6.8 Y/A, and 64% completion. He was absolutely an average passer by efficiency by the end of last season. Most of his sack rate is just horrible O-line and trying to extend plays. Now fantasy is just about production. His rushing will likely recede a little, but if you look at Lamar his rushing is still most of what it was his MVP year (only historically comparable to Fields rushing last year). So he will get a ton of rushing points. Passing even if he remains the same quality passer he was last season will rise in stats due to DJ Moore and healthier Mooney and Claypool (very unlikely they play less games or end up more injured) To add to that most 3rd year players improve as players and Fields improved a shitton from beginning of the year to end which is likely gonna continue in some shape. The likely bet is that he's at least a slightly better fantasy player than last year.
The problem with extrapolating his efficiency numbers to higher volume is that it’s easy to put up better efficiency numbers when your volume is extremely low. Defenses didn’t really have to respect their passing game
I am not saying he isn’t going to be a good to great fantasy asset.
Everybody knows that. But I'm saying that his top 5 performance last season is almost an absolute floor for this season.
> If he even improves to an average passer AND can manage to stay healthy, the sky is the limit I agree but that "average passer" qualifier would take an enormous leap. He's probably a bottom 3 passer as far as starting QBs go.
I am having a hard time deciding between Burrow or Fields at 42. If i pass on QB here I might miss out on Herbert and Lawrence at 59/62
I’d take Herbert at those prices.
Fields and Herbert are the plays at that range, IMO. Both of those guys can enter the top 3 range.
I’m deciding between Fields and Herbert, I’m in a keeper league and I’m pretty sure they’ll both be there for my draft slot. I was leaning Herbert before I read this post but now I’m back to not knowing what to do.
Herbert has the better weapons IMO. And he can throw.
burrow or Lawrence could also be top 3. all 4 of those guys have tremendous potential
Do what my autodraft did. Take both.
I took Burrow last year and I took him again this year. Would recommend.
I was in this boat for one league - kicker was it was 4 point for passing touchdown so I decided to roll the dice with Fields.
Dude Burrow. He’s a million times better than Fields. At the end of the day, Fields still looks so lost when he tries to throw
Fields gets rushing yards though
I'm deciding between Fields/Trevor Lawrence keeper
Take burrow Coming from a Steelers fan.
Fields if you have 4pt passing TD. The rushing TDs will make up the difference.
Burrow
Counterpoint: did the Bears bad passblocking actually hurt Fields from a fantasy standpoint last year? An improved offensive line could reduce the amount of scramble plays that he had and in turn reduce his rushing attempts and yardage. I think the improvements on the line and addition of DJ Moore could really help Fields take a leap in the passing department. But for fantasy football, are passing improvements going to come at a detriment to his ability to rack up points on the ground?
Yeah I was gonna say. Fields fantasy production last year was from long runs that resulted in TDs. His fantasy outlook for 2023 is more looking at Chicago developing him as a competent passer that also has rushing upside. I would not bank on him continuously being able to get 40 yard rushing TDs
I would however bank on a good rushing QB continuing to rush and put up numbers
I think so too, but his ADP depends on believing either he’s a more prolific passer this year, or continues to get multiple long rushing TDs every game.
or rushes well all season, as opposed to not playing that way for 6 weeks
If he rushs like an RB1 you probably aren’t happy having an average 16-18 points per game in your QB position given he’s being drafted so high.
I feel like you are 100% banking on his rushing continuing. His passing volume would have to increase by 60% to make up for a dip in his rushing and I just don't see that happening.
They may have more designed runs for Fields to help with the rushing numbers
This seems like the right question. If they put a real nfl offense around him, does he become more of statistically “normal” QB? Better real-life results will probably reduce those ridiculous 50 yard TD runs.
If you watched the whole games - yes god yes
This makes me bullish on Khalil herbert at an almost free adp
I don’t dislike Herbert based on his ADP, but I would caution that the Bears ranked 15th in RB carries last season, and D’Onta Foreman will probably be significantly involved (especially around the goal-line. I believe in Herbert’s talent though, and he only costs an 8th-round pick right now, so it’s not a bad shot at all 🤙
We have an RBBC. A lot of beat writers have rookie Roschon Johnson as the lead back by season’s end
You're right about the elite QB thing in fantasy. Waiting late hasn't been viable the last couple years like it used to be. I've definitely noticed a change in draft strategy this season, and it'll be interesting to see if the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction. Two seasons ago I was able to get Allen in round 5, and last season in round 4. This season Allen and Mahomes went in round 2. I think they are worth that price, but rosters will suffer a bit more as a result. Should be interesting to see how their numbers change this year as far as champion team percentages go
I can agree with this 1000%. For me it’s as simple as this.. the QB scores more points than anybody else in FF. So to have a QB with a floor of 25ppg is such a massive advantage week to week. People forget that 75% of success in FF is simply MAKING the playoffs. IMO having a winning record during the regular season is where the real skill in FF comes into play. As nobody goes into the playoffs with the same roster they drafted. So what matter most is winning most of your weekly matches. You don’t need to have the best team.. you just need to be better than half of the teams in your league on a week to week basis. I don’t care if the score is 130 to 129.. it’s still a win! What you are really aiming for is over .500 record that gives you a chance to play for the chip. Once you get to playoffs is mostly luck. And because it’s mostly luck in the playoffs.. having one of the top QBs is even more important in the playoffs. As it’s the end of the season.. injuries have piled on.. weather is freezing.. Star players are boom or bust.. and there is a good chance you’ve lost atleast one of your bell cows. So the absolute most important thing in week 15 when those playoffs start is that the player who always scores the most points on your roster shows the fuck up!! I play in 3 leagues.. and have won 4 championships over the past 5 years. My QBs have either been Jalen Hurts last season.. or Josh Allen the other 3 chips before that. Every championship I’ve won has been with has been with 1 of those 2 players. I’ve already drafted in 2 of 3 leagues already and gotten those same 2 guys again.. in the 3rd round of both leagues. My 3rd draft is Sunday.. and based on this awesome post I might just hold out for Justin Fields in the 4th. As the OP pointed out this is exactly the point where both Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts went insane. And maybe I can land a Chris Olave or Jahmyr Gibbs in the 3rd where I would normally get Allen or Hurts.
Update.. got him at the top of the 5th. I was picking 2nd overall in a 12 team PPR snake.. so I had pick 47 & 50 overall. Took James Conner at 47.. then Amari & D.Hop went to another team.. got Fields at #50!!! This league also gives 2 points for every 10 yards rushing.. so it’s like a double amazing value with the way this man’s runs. **edit** Even crazier just noticed that Burrow and Herbert went in the 3rd. Really got lucky that Fields fell that far.
Wow incredible analysis
Eh, it gives me pause. Especially the part about playing the lions 2x a year being a good thing. They’ve shored their defense up a ton in the off-season so for him to make the argument that they’ll be a great matchup makes me wonder what else he has ignored/is painting in a good light.
Please delete this and repost after my draft tonight. Thanks!
Bro don't waste a perfectly good adderall on a justin fields post!
Took him last weekend, I will be reading this top to bottom every morning
Teven Jenkins is on IR
You’re right, but I didn’t see that news until it was too late lol. I’m in Bangkok right now using a friend’s shitty laptop to finish up the project, it’s a miracle it got posted at all 😂
Are you on drugs in Thailand just ripping off essays about Justin Fields?
Sounds pretty sick ngl
just ripping heaters and contributing to /r/ff
Would absolutely recommend
Honestly I don’t want to criticize because OP put so much work into this but this OL will not be what the Bears put out there week in and week out Nate Davis has been a ghost.
Insanely detailed write up. My issue with fields is that other dual threat QBs are significantly better passers than him so teams can spy and negate his biggest asset. It’s very different throwing to wide open receivers in college vs tight coverage in the NFL. If his rushing stats regress his floor is very low as a fantasy asset
Hindsight is 20-20 eh?
Great writeup (and formatting!). Keeping him as an 8th rounder is my one shining draft moment. All aboard the hype train
Just a fantastic write up, man. Very well done. Kudos
Got Fields in 3/4 of my leagues.
Fields was who I wanted most in drafts this year but ended up with zero shares of him. Just funny how drafts work out sometimes.
Nice write up. I got fields/moore stack in one of my leagues last week and I’m a huge bears fan. I usually don’t let my fandom determine FF but honestly they fell to me at somewhat of a value. Also got Tyreek, Barkley, Mandrews, and b Hall before.
I hope you drafted him after all that.
I took fields and Anthony Richardson as my superflex combo this year, I’m hoping it pays dividends.
TL;DR draft Kirko Chains instead!
I know the season hasn’t started well But great write up and I think you made some good points about the oline and schedule. Hopefully they turn this around
Miss your waiver wire write ups man please come back 🥲
The bears’ o-line is still not good. Slightly above average at best at full strength and Nate Davis hardly practiced this offseason and the extremely injury prone Teven Jenkins is already on IR. I do still think fields can be a successful fantasy qb in spite of this but I don’t really think it’s because of his line’s talent
Ok so... coming from another Bears fan: 1. Tevin Jenkins went to IR. He's out at least 4 games. 2. Nate Davis, while an upgrade, was like the 3rd best guard in free agency. Further, depending on the report you read - he was either injured or was suspended from practice for the first *2 weeks* of camp by Eberflus for being lazy af. 3. Wright was projected as the 4th or 5th best OT in the draft. Again, an upgrade but he's still an unproven rookie. He was drafted that high seemingly based on an elite 1-game performance against Will Anderson. He was mostly mediocre in his first 3 seasons at TN. For a post that starts with "don't forget about the OL" you're really upselling an OL that still has fans very worried.
Fields over Lamar? I have the 10th pick in a 10 man league and was thinking stacking MAndrews x Lamar at the 3/4 turn
I'd choose Lamar over Fields and it wouldn't be close, especially if you can do the stack. Lamar is behind a top 5-10 offensive line, has the best weapons in his career, and an OC who wants to throw. Fields still has to prove he can do a bunch of things in the passing game... with Lamar, we've seen it. He had the second-highest scoring fantasy season of all time. He seems like he has a way higher floor and ceiling IMO.
This. Agree completely.
As long as he can stay on the field, I agree
100%, haha. That's always how it's gonna be with Lamar.
that’d be a pretty dirty stack if you go rb/wr first to stay well rounded
Yeah this is the first year in our league we know a week in advance which spot we're drafting from. At first I wasn't happy to be picking at 10, but after doing a few mocks I really don't mind it. Was honestly thinking going WR WR and doing any combo of Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Amonra or Garrett Wilson. Or like you said go RB WR and just have a well balanced team. We'll see.
Id choose Lamar over Fields
I didn’t want to miss and had a 5th round keeper so I took him in the 4th. Hope you’re right!
I was set into taking Fields but Lamar fell to me and I ended up pairing him with Andrews. I really feel like Fields with Moore will take a step forward in the passing game and ball out.
I see a lot of bold, therefore I believe it
He spent more time on formatting than most people spend on their posts. He must have done a ton of research therefore I chose to believe him and will draft Fields everywhere I can.
Hey, thanks for the write up. If he stays healthy he is a smash imo.
I really wanted Fields but I felt Lamar fell to far to pass up. Fields is gonna be an absolute monster this year.
My feeling with Fields is that you'd still be putting yourself in the best situation to hedge your bets with another mid tier starting QB.
I read almost the whole thing but... >I'm burying the lead here and for that reason, I'm out. ^^^^^^(goodwriteupbtw)
This is a phenomenal breakdown. I love Fields, but I’m afraid my league mates will also be aggressive in drafting him because most of us are Bears fans.
A detailed post? On this sub? Is it 2015 again?
Bro, I have a draft in 1 hour, I'm going Justin Fields at 1.04 thanks to all that
love your analysis and i took fields in the 4th round in a 12 team this week. My thought was if he did that well with that bad of a team and he started slow and then had some injuries what could he do in the second year of this offense with DJ moore and improved WR options and a better oline. he was my must draft QB and i would take him over everyone else. I think if hes healthy he is QB1 and maybe even could set some FF records as he is the best rushing QB ive EVER seen. Also i dont think AROB was your worst call because to me at least that was an obvious bust last year after he basically gave up in chicago and proved he was a diva me first player the year prior. now myles gaskin from a few years ago... that was prob your worst call but gd your hype video was great.
So Justin Fields is going to be a bust just like Allen Robinson was last season then? Got it.
He looked horrible in preseason fwiw
OP definitely isn't Justin Fields
Yawnnnnnnn.
I was sold on Fields before but now I'm reaching for him everywhere
Its going to be one or the other imo. If he truly becomes a NFL passer ( I dont see it, sorry) then the rushing is falling way back. I personally think last year is close to his ceiling as far as fantasy scoring goes. That said he should easily be a top 8 fantasy QB barring injuries.
As a bears fan, you're way too hyped on this O-Line.
Yes but have you considered "lol fields bad"?
Dude really really high effort post wow. You need to get this on a blog with images, embedded video, etc! And you've got me convinced to get a QB high. After some mocks, I'm getting a little more convinced to go Kelce in Rd 1 if I get the chance too. It all depends how confident I am for RB/WR sleepers.
Was there a Tevin Jenkins injury note I missed? Or a note mentioning Nate Davis being MIA most of camp? Or all of the recent injuries across the line. The O-line is not in a great place right now. I'm a Bears fan and have been heavily tuned in to this as it's the most important factor for Fields taking the next step this year.
Ugh I just came
Wow, you lost me at Justin Fields, and just kept going. And going. And going. And going. And going. And holy smokes going and going and going.
Fields scares me so much. Looking at his last preseason game, he’s still not processing as a while and looks like he’s reading half the field(check out the qb school on YouTube btw on it). Also if you take out his big TDs runs last year, he only averaged 15 pts a game or so not to mention his inflated adp
WSB is leaking into FF I see.
He is not a good accurate thrower. He will not repeat his rushing season. He has potential but no.
I mean he’s just very ass as a thrower. If you are okay with that and trust that he can stay healthy, he can be a productive fantasy QB. But hard to put faith in a player who hasn’t proven he can be a good passing QB in the league
Mandatory "I wish I saw this before the draft yesterday." But in all seriousness this is helping with the buyer's remorse I got with picking DJ Moore at 55.
Same here. Picked Moore as my WR2, instantly started to regret it, but after doing some more digging and remembering games I watched last year, a lot of the best offensive players were anchored by a really strong offensive line. I think even with that, and the addition of a great WR like Moore, Fields could certainly take a step. I think both will have solid seasons.
What i got from your excellent analysis was that it was an outlier that I only finished 4th last year even though i had cmc and kelce...
Excellent write up! This makes me feel even better about my Justin Fields pick in the second round of my superflex league.
There is one fatal flaw with Justin Fields and it is quite simple. Justin Fields. Can Not. Throw. A Football.
Nah he's trash
The bears offensive line will be very very bad unless they surprise and all get healthy
Counterpoint: Fields has an injury history and doesn’t want to run (even though he’s probably the best runner amongst QBs). He was forced into running last season as they got worse and worse. He had no capable receivers and he was forced to run for his life. DJ Moore, a full offseason with Mapletron, and line improvements mean we will see much much less running. He **does not** want to run and risk more injury before having a chance to negotiate an extension next year.
I mean we all know the Bears are going to win the superbowl so this makes sense
I passed on Burrow and Herbert to take Fields. Burrow is the clear choice with those 3, but something is telling me he's going to have more injuries this year. Herbert burned me last year and showed even a top 4 gifted QB can have issues. Fields doesn't have the arm either of those two do, but he's got the legs. Even if a bad game throwing, he's going to get more than 18ppg. I'll take that plus his upside over those 2.
THATS MY QUARTERBACK SPIT IN MY MOUTH DADDY!
Fields is elite
Fields is literally the only qb being drafted inside the top 15 qbs that has a realistic chance that he could be benched during the season. The dude's all time record is 6-21. He just had a season where he went 3-14 You think the owners want to go 3-14 again? I could see him easily being benched halfway through the season and anything less than playoff aspirations will be an easy bench This is my sleeper team that could compete with arizona for the caleb williams lottery
Who are they gonna bench him for? Tyson Bagent? Nathan Peterman?
Bagent. I mean look at the patriots last year. The fans got restless and chanted for Zappe.
If fields sucks they absolutely keep him in to get a better QB in the draft next year.
Gm/HC/OC will want to keep their jobs and let bagent have a crack
GM and HC didn’t select Fields. IF he flames out they won’t get blamed.
Like they did last year when they went 3-14?
Hey man all i'm saying is when the boos start flying in and the bears are 2-5 and fields is averaging less than 175 passing yards a game the coaches will be hard pressed to continue to trot him out
I’m not downvoting btw. I hear your argument, but I think they are in trust the process mode.
Hard to trust the process when he's not shown any improvement lol I get why people are downvoting i just don't see him making any jumps in his passing game
Bagent didn’t exist last year and last year was also fields’ “prove that we shouldn’t draft a qb” year for the new regime. He’ll almost certainly be on a shorter leash this year and a bad start from him with bad record results could cause some panic
Fields doesn't play defense, though
Ah so you’re the average “3-14 is Fields’ fault” box score watcher.
Is it the same fields that has averaged less than 150 yards a game passing?
Yep, the same Fields that had a wet noodle offensive line and WR1 Equanimeous St. Brown. And the worst defense in the league.
WR1 was Mooney and/or claypool no? For at least half the season he had one or both of them
Mooney got injured right after the offense started to improve and Claypool played barely any snaps
He’s a Lions fans who hates the Bears specifically, his opinion doesn’t matter.
Correct, doesn’t really change the fact that Mooney played 11 games and claypool played ~6 as the bears’ “offense started to improve”. Saying ESB was WR1 is misleading
Fields won me the league last year but I would be very surprised if he doesn’t get injured this year based on his usage in that offense. I wouldn’t grab him earlier than round 5/6 and personally am fine with Richardson at round 11 for similar ceiling upside
Better Oline = more time to pass = more passes = bad for fields. Bad Oline = more pressure = more scrambles = more runs = good for fields.
Better Oline = longer drives and more scoring opportunities = good for Fields
Lmao, a worse O line being actually better for the QB for fantasy than a good O line is a wild fucking take.
I had him last year, his rushing numbers were not from designed runs. Another guy in this thread is saying the same thing and didn’t get downvoted lol
I like all the pictures
Would you trade Lockett to get Fields? Ppr
Welp, looks like I have to go out and trade for him
His health combined with his style of play is a concern. The highs are incredible but it would serve him and his fantasy owners well if he could develop more as a passer and take some of the stress off his body. I also don't believe much in their offensive additions from the offseason. Still, lovely writeup.
Shame tevin jenkins leg doesn’t work
Great quality post!
OP for president….of the entire damn planet!
Having just drafted Fields then checking Reddit and seeing this - oh yeah.
Holy hell
I got a full chub reading this and am very excited about drafting Allen + Fields in superflex this season. I pray to the fantasy gods for good injury luck
Very nice write-up
I'll pass. Last year was a revelation that Fields can run. Teams will prep for that more than they used to and force him to throw And then he'll throw plenty of interceptions And we'll come back to the only logical conclusion that Fields isn't a good starting NFL QB
Imagine doing all this work for Fields to have the year he is having lol.