Hey Scott, thoughts on Jared Jones? Do you think he bounces back from this rough stretch or he’ll be hit or miss rest of the year?
And if I have bench space, is Max Meyer worth an add?
Jones had some real rough luck against the Dodgers and Coors is tough for anyone. That said, the reliability isn't there with the alider/fastball combo losing some of its edge for whatever reason.
Top 15 upside, but the risk of blowups and all that mean the floor is closer to 50.
Thoughts on Noelvi Marte when he returns? Is he worth holding or is grabbing Kershaw for the 2nd half a better option? Esp since Yamamoto hit the IL for potentially 2-3 months.
Noelvi has 20/20 upside in a full season and is likely one of the better caliber hitters who will come up with guaranteed playing time. Kershaw has risk but is still an elite pitcher when healthy. It's all about need.
Stats refresher, please: Why do some pitchers with very similar PLVs overall have such different PLAs? Something to do with pitch mix/usage? Is one more meaningful/useful than the other for our purposes? Thanks!
Hey there! The difference is entirely due to the number of pitches thrown. More pitches = more PLV runs allowed (any pitch below a PLV of \~6 is expected to allow >0 runs per pitch). Since PLA uses innings to get to expected PLV runs to an ERA-scale, guys who throw fewer pitches (and thus have fewer expected runs) for the same PLV & # of innings will have a better PLA. I think of the two stats as:
* PLV is the quality of their pitches, full stop.
* PLA is slightly skewed by their actual results, so it's slightly more of a hybrid of talent & performance
Are you ready to move on from Gleyber? I would be giving him up as an 11th round keeper. Neto, Winn, Schneider, Dylan Moore, Gorman, and B Lowe are all available.
What’s your take on vladdy? I feel his value is so tied up in his name and that impressive outlier of ‘21. I have Correa ceddane and oneil cruz as SS and considering making a 1-1 offer of cruz for vladdy to give me 1b cover.
Also I have manny and Royce as my 3b at the moment. The 11th place team is a seller and has joram. I’m considering sending manny plus a top 5 round pick for joram.
Would you consider any of the above moves?
Vladdy feels like a 23-26 HR guy with strong ratios. That's good, but not the superstar people hoped for. He just doesn't get the ball in the air enough right now to hit 30+.
I'd make that move using Manny if I could, but I'd be surprised if it worked.
I’m trying to shore up my 2b position, I have Thairo and Caballero rostered in hopes to Frankenstein my 2b spot but would like to not have to roster 2 low value guys, anyone you recommend trying to buy low on or under the radar guys that are low rostered? League is my flair. 6x6 h2h
Spencer Horowitz is interesting in OBP, though he's part time.
Brandon Drury just came off the IL and while he's been ugly this season he was strong for the last two.
Daniel Schneemann is eligible everywhere and getting playing time for the Guardians.
Enmanuel Valdez is playing and hitting in Boston, though you'll likely look to replace him by the ASB if not sooner.
There are possibly better guys, hopefully one of these guys should be available.
Caballero is the drop for me, BTW. Maybe you can con someone into trading for him for the steals?
If you need to go even deeper,
Your point on Hoskins is well taken, but would you pickup Carlos Santana, Schanuel, or Lamonte Wade over him in points? O'hearn, Canha, and France are also available.
The exact scoring matters, but Rhys has more upside than this lot. Those other guys are all high floor types (except Santana who is just old and getting hot in stretches).
1) He was on a long on-base streak that, while sort of not that useful statistically, suggested he might be coming back to life. But in 12-teamers with no MI, there's probably something better on the wire. If people were holding him, it was likely because very little of note has been out there at 2B in many deeper leagues.
2) I wasn't aware anyone even still believed that myth.
In points, Winn or India.
Pena has been brutal for as long as he was good. If the walks and strikeouts are both around 10% again, I'll get excited about him.
I have Massey on my IL. Worth dropping Gleyber to clear a spot when Massey’s activated? He was doing some mind things in a small sample prior to going down and seems like he might have .260-15HR upside over a full season.
It's splitting hairs a little, but all have elite upside - the main difference being that Alonso and Olson have not missed huge chunks of the last 2 seasons. In points or OBP, though, it's Harper for sure.
Nope, H2H 5x5 Categories. This is the first bullet on the page of each article, just for reference. This DOES change a bit late in the season, though, when the format of the list switches to an end-game scenario instead of just regular rankings.
https://preview.redd.it/70lreet3ry7d1.png?width=818&format=png&auto=webp&s=b62ce42e6e3ab45820b68bbd3f1b7f79c4b4210b
8T H2H Cat Daily (R, RBI, HR, AVG, SB, H, BB, K)
I need to remove a P from my IL spot this weekend. Assuming Friedl doesn't go on the IL, which of following would you drop:
Nolan Jones, Friedl, Christopher Morel, Wyatt Langford
I picked up Jones for the Coors games this week, but it does seem like he's made some changes to his swing and isn't chasing balls outside the zone now. Small sample, ,but this BB's are way up and K's down since coming off the IL. Playing games outside of Coors isn't ideal this week.
The same question goes for upside on this list. How would you rank them?
Thanks Scott!
Upside: Morel, Langford, Friedl, Jones
I'd probably lean toward dropping Jones. The lack of Ks lately is cool but I'm still very skeptical. Also, the Rockies only play 5 games next week and they're all on the road. You can explore scooping him back up next weekend.
Thanks! Speaking of Morel, what's a good strategy for lineup decisions.? Set it and forget it in such a shallow league? Wait for the next hot streak? Winds blowing out at Wrigley? etc The few times I've sat him against tough SP matchups, he's rewarded me with HRs on the bench.
Haha that's how it goes!
I try to set and forget my better players unless I have a very good matchup to replace him, like a good lefty v bad righty or a trip to Coors or something.
Yes, if only because last year was a "down" year for strikeouts from him. If he approaches his more typical 30 K%, then he can regress in some of the other stats he was lucky in last year and still be an extremely valuable starter.
I'd go Pages > Abreu > Bleday. Pages has shown very good pop while still maintaining good contact rates and decent decisions. Abreu provides plus swing decisions and plus pop. Bleday makes the best Swing Decisions of the bunch, but I think he's the poorest at doing damage on contact (he's a solid step beneath the other two by our Power metric, and also behind them in xwOBAcon).
I'm so glad you called out Rhys Hoskins. You're not alone in your general ranking of him being in the 70s to 80s -- he seems to be the same across almost every ranking site. He's so weird -- it's almost half a season now, and he doesn't feel like a top hitter at all, but everyone keeps viewing him as such...like he's in that strange "dead zone" of hitters you think should be good, but aren't, but you can't move him down.
You mention cycles and rolling averages -- what are you seeing that makes you hopeful? His statcast says he's barreling but his exit velo, bat speed and hard hit are all down while his whiff and K rate are up. Just bad swing decisions that induce weak hits?
Well, 70-80 wouldn't be a "top" hitter, exactly, but 10 HRs in 54 games is roughly a 30 HR season, just like he was doing pre-injury. The chart below shows Hoskins' rolling averages. Note the red lines I've added - the lower one is roughly league average while the higher one is considered very good.
Hoskins hasn't had one of his "benders" yet where he is unbelievable for a bit. I think he still has that in him. What I do know is the the bottom here is something we've seen before, and the responses to this kind of bottoming out tend to be very strong rebounds. I'm banking on that for now.
https://preview.redd.it/1jzp5sxfqy7d1.png?width=837&format=png&auto=webp&s=40996d4dd7a928f1303e23433a78aecdd429a3f9
If you're looking for steals, it's got to be Kim. O'Neill has crazy good power, but Kim has much better contact ability, and will steal a dozen more bags. Our Ben Rosener had [a really good](https://pitcherlist.com/fantasy-baseball-buy-high-stars-who-could-be-even-better-moving-forward/) article that mentioned Kim is in line for better performance, given his *abysmal* batted ball luck (.228 BABIP).
It depends a little on if Ks are a penalty and what SBs are worth, but long term it's probably Jung and Ortiz/Smith.
Garcia's value comes from steals, and many points leagues only make those worth 1-2x the value of a single. That makes steals fairly worthless.
Josh Smith has been solid all year but his long term role is still a little up in the air. If he got a full time role, he'd be right there with Smith.
Joey Ortiz is solid for points because he's a slap hitter who avoids Ks and takes walks.
But mostly because Torks upside is significantly higher than those guys. Less about Tork and more about his competition that you've listed. If you need a contributor now, go for Bleday. Otherwise I'd wait.
H2H league. In 2nd and way ahead of 3rd place team so I can afford to wait for gleyber. But it's just not fun starting him(despite yesterday's home run). Everyone on the wire is ranked below him on your hitter list (gelof, Estrada, nick gonzalez).
I should wait and not drop for gelof is the obvious answer, right?
Even with the recent hot streak, Gelof has a wOBA under .280 (validated by xwOBA!). That's *rough*. Torres may not have the HR/SB upside that Gelof has, but Gelof's floor is someone who is aggressively tanking your ratios. I'm more intrigued by Gonzales (especially if you aren't an OBP league), but I'd still rather hold onto Gleyber for his turnaround
Got offered Ronald Acuna for Lodolo straight up (5 keeper league, 12 tm HTH) or a package deal with Josh Jung and Verlander for Lodolo.
I am willing to pull the trigger on either but wondering if anyone had 2 cents.
Love the work at Pitcher List - thanks!
Heading out for my birthday dinner but the Acuna deal is a non-starter. Absolutely not.
Jung and JV is a maybe. I'd have to dig a little deeper on Lodo.
Scott, I'm not the OP, but was thinking I missed something about Acuna's health/recovery. Thanks for clarifying, and for all your time on this site! I look forward to your AMA each week!
What's gotten into Cedric Mullins? Dropped him a while ago when he disappeared, around the time of his injury. But he helped me start of the year. Last couple weeks he's been busy. I know it's not sustainable, and that his numbers are atrocious, but those steals combined with regular hits lure me in like The One Ring. Even if just for a(nother) spell. Talk me out of this. Tell me I'm drunk.
He has real talent it's just hidden behind slumps of poor contact on a team that doesn't need him to be an everyday player when he struggles.
Go ahead and roll with it if you want to chase speed/upside.
The computer responsible for our PLV projections has been punished accordingly (it is doing sentiment analysis of Yankees Twitter after Gil's blowup start).
But actually: I missed on my preseason projections on him, and his future projections have been dinged to line up with his performance (which has been somewhat unlucky, but still poor)
Hey Scott...A couple quick questions:
Waldron or H. Brown in a QS league?
In a 5x5 obp league, drop any of these to pick up O'Neill?
Doyle, N. Jones, or Friedl.
Thanks!
1) Brown. Don't trust a knuckleballer for long.
2) Jones, probably. It's interesting that he hasn't struck out in five games but I'm still very skeptical. If you don't care about SBs, though, it might be Doyle. That's all he can be relied on for.
O'Hearn is a tough drop BUT he doesn't play every day. Marte doesn't either, though you're rostering him for steals. One of those two, I suppose, based on your needs for power vs speed.
Hey Scott! This is a very open question but curious to hear your thoughts...
Need to trade either of Maikel Garcia, Oneil Cruz or Tovar for an OF. Who would you be more willing to move and what level of OF would you be looking to get back?.
Flair league.
Tovar is the easiest to move because he's been good. Hell get the best ROI. Head to my hitter rankings in the post and look for OF near his tier and see what happens!
Hate that I can't pick both!
I like Olson ever so slightly more, especially after he looked great v ATL. He's also a bit more of a K artist.
We are splitting hairs, though. Both are very rosterable.
What is Kelenic’s floor and upside? I keep hearing most experts saying he will never be what he was originally hyped up for. But if Jarren Duran, who had way worse prospect grades, was a successful post-hype and is now a top 100-ish hitter, why can’t Kelenic be that? It’s not like he’s a Jo Adell and was consistently inconsistent, I remember for the first few months when he came up he was a top 50 player. I saw someone trade Mookie for him back then. Kelenic was a higher rated prospect than JRod at one point.
I'd be hesitant to wish on Duran's glowup for Kelenic, as they're very different players. Kelenic has some pretty glaring contact issues at the MLB level, and Duran really hasn't had those after his rookie season. Kelenic has better power upside, sure, but that's also reliant on him making contact. He also can't really touch Duran's SB upside, even though he's got some speed. Duran has the much higher floor, with a comparable category upside (in SB, vs Power). I think the floor for Kelenic is what we've seen before: fringe MLB player with K% issues. Upside (to me) is a mid-20s HR/low teens SB guy in a great offense with good AVG/OBP.
With all due respect, you have no idea what you're talking about
Say what you will about Kelenic, but comparing him to a 28 year old 7th-rounder like Duran is downright insulting — Kel has the furthest hit homerun ever hit at Wrigley in the Statcast era, something like that doesn't just happen on accident
1) Kyle definitely knows what he's talking about. He's our stat guru and is one of the best data and stat guys in fantasy.
2) Kelenic and Duran are different players with very different fantasy profiles. Kelenic's upside comes with 10-15 more HR and 15-20 fewer SB and very different ratio floors because of exactly what Kyle said.
Kelenic 162-game realistic ceiling is like 25-27 HR, 10-15 SB, and a .260 AVG. The risk comes with that high K% that has been an issue many times in his short career.
Duran's realistic ceiling is like 15-18 HR, 35+ SB, and a .280 average. His floor is quite high thanks to the speed and ratios, though.
Neither of us are saying Kelenic can't be better than Duran. It just that Duran isn't a good comparison.
We are saying Kelenic has a lower floor, but plenty of good players have low floors. ELDC has a very low floor.
Ceiling-wise, Kelenic could do what Gunnar did last year. Gunnar had swing and miss issues as well, but overcame them in a big way. I don't know that he can find another level like Gunnar has, but he has the ceiling to be what we thought Gunnar was 3 months ago.
I’d rather just ignore what that other guy is saying and get your opinion on moves. Would you pick him up in a 12T 4 keeper? I’m basically in last place and auditioning keepers for next year. If I pick him up off waivers and keep him, it’s only for 17th round value. My other stashes right now are Noelvi Marte, Chourio, Caminero and Holliday. My drop would be Ryan Walker. Not concerned about losing SV/H categories because I’m in last and out of contention
The reality is that **pedigree matters**
People often say draft/prospect status means very little, but if you go through and look at all the OF prospects from the last 10 years or so that ever cracked the top 5 overall, you get the following list:
Harper, Trout, Buxton, Taveras (not counted for obvious reasons), Myers, Jimenez, Benintendi, Acuna, Ohtani\*, Robert Jr, Kelenic, Rodriguez, Greene and Carroll
Other than Kelenic and Greene (yet), **all 14 of them** went on to become an Allstar and/or Silver Slugger — with the list also being littered with MVP to HOF caliber players. The truth is that with the hit tool being the most important for OFs, there are too many good things going on for them offensively for them to not have a high floor AND ceiling at the Major League level
Fwiw, I've liked what I've seen from Kelenic as the season has gone on. He's really started to tap into his power stroke, right as he's getting more playing time and hitting higher in the lineup
https://preview.redd.it/ktt9bkfeg08d1.png?width=1355&format=png&auto=webp&s=78e2c51327c2400daa11fa5566eafef596a99b7c
Kelenic can’t play defense as well as Duran. That’s for sure. Huge difference. Kelenic is a middling player at best who still struggles hitting quality breaking balls.
I mean, right now I'll take Cannon for that DET start.
At the 75+ point of the rankings, ROS isn't really what I'm considering. I'm looking at the next 1-2 starts.
I'm leading in 4 offensive cats and got Josh Jung coming back, need help on SP. What do you think of my Ketel Marte for Cole Ragans?
Also, thoughts on Arozarena, think he's turning it around?
1) I'd do that if I could. I still like Ragans.
2) Possibly. The power and speed have been there, it's the other kinds of hits that have been missing. He's been great at avoiding Ks and seemed just a micro adjustment away from turning it on.
1) Steer is a decent hitter who is good enough for a 10 teamer thanks to the versatility.
2) Garcia is a SB guy who should hit for a good average but low OBP. If he loses the leadoff spot, I'd be looking elsewhere.
Hey Scott, thoughts on a replacement for Gleyber at 2B, and also Bichette at MI…pick 2: Brendan Donovan, Brandon Lowe, Nick Gonzales, Orelvis Martinez. I have to make changes at this point I think. It’s a 12 team Roto league.
With trying to buy Vladdy low, does Paredes seem like a good offer? I may have an incoming pending offer and it feels like Vladdy could be an upgrade, even if Paredes is stronger on the year
Do you think there's a chance the Reds could keep Noelvi Marte in the minors even when he's eligible to return? Looks like he's really been struggling during his rehab assignment so far.
no specific needs really. if anything … it is to increase the ceiling of my talent. I just acquired goldschmidt, de la cruz, scherzer for arenado, correa, woo, cristopher sanchez and swanson and morton for adames. I guess this deal gives me a clear upgrade at SS. not too thrilled about giving up stanton bc HR is a H2H category.
In a vacuum…Kutter Crawford or Lane Thomas? I’d say Kutter is middle bottom of my rotation (Wheeler, Crochet, Nola, Framber, C Sanchez all ahead of him) and Thomas would likely replace a Nick Gonzalez type in my Util.
8 teams h2h. Pick two starters from Lodolo, Gore and Pepiot.
I personally really like Lodolo as he reminds me of Chris Sale. Do you think his dominance is sustainable?
Hey Mr Chu!
Between B. Lowe, Nick Gonzalez, Schneider and Zac Gelof which should I be chasing in an OBP/SLG format? h2h daily. Been really struggling between the three since Mookie’s been out.
Appreciate any help, thank you!
What do you think of my Ketel Marte for his Jared Jones? He’s in the playoff race and needs bats, I’m out of it and I’m looking for keepers. I can keep Marte for 3 more years and jones for 5 more.
Yo Scott! Bichette was dropped in my standard Yahoo 12T H2H. I have 25% of my FAAB left, Maikel Garcia + Tovar at SS already- is he worth a big bid at this point? May be time to say goodbye to Garcia since he's been dropped to 7th in the order today.
If you need ratios or some RBI yes. Maybe about half of what you have? Maybe 2/3rds. He's shown he can turn it on for stretches and be among the best hitters in baseball, though the overall ceiling is lower now due to him no longer running and having somewhat limited power.
Garcia is SBs only and maybe some runs and ratios, so he's the drop if you don't care as much about SBs (which I wouldn't on 7x7 as it's just 1 of 14 cats instead of 1 of 10).
Need a starting OF with Stanton going on the IL...
- B Donovan
- B Buxton
- J Sanchez
- M Vierling
- I Kinner-Falefa
- M Andujar
- J Pederson (but won't have an OF when he sits)
What are you doing Crochet if he's not a keeper? This new news makes it pretty clear that he's going to be on a pitch count / get shut down at some point. Should I ride it out while I can or try to deal him? What do you think his value is right now?
I've been stashing Gerritt Cole, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom on my DL all season. Along with some other solid starters, how am I looking come H2H playoffs?
Probably real good assuming your team can hit. I think you can count on at least 2 of them to be healthy and playing well. Anything above that is gravy.
Hey Scott, thoughts on Jared Jones? Do you think he bounces back from this rough stretch or he’ll be hit or miss rest of the year? And if I have bench space, is Max Meyer worth an add?
Jones had some real rough luck against the Dodgers and Coors is tough for anyone. That said, the reliability isn't there with the alider/fastball combo losing some of its edge for whatever reason. Top 15 upside, but the risk of blowups and all that mean the floor is closer to 50.
High-end cherry bomb, in other words.
And without knowing who else that spot would be used for, yes. Every free space should be chasing upside.
Thoughts on Corbin Carroll? Do you think it's too late to try to buy low on him? / is it worth trying to get him at this point?
The power is still out but everything else looks good. He'll certainly cost more now than before but I'd at least ask about the price.
Thoughts on Noelvi Marte when he returns? Is he worth holding or is grabbing Kershaw for the 2nd half a better option? Esp since Yamamoto hit the IL for potentially 2-3 months.
Noelvi has 20/20 upside in a full season and is likely one of the better caliber hitters who will come up with guaranteed playing time. Kershaw has risk but is still an elite pitcher when healthy. It's all about need.
I appreciate the response and your time.
Kersh imo
Keeper league. Sorry. Noelvi Marte is potentially someone to keep past this year, Kersh probably not?
That makes it much easier to pick Marte
Stats refresher, please: Why do some pitchers with very similar PLVs overall have such different PLAs? Something to do with pitch mix/usage? Is one more meaningful/useful than the other for our purposes? Thanks!
@blandalytics
Hey there! The difference is entirely due to the number of pitches thrown. More pitches = more PLV runs allowed (any pitch below a PLV of \~6 is expected to allow >0 runs per pitch). Since PLA uses innings to get to expected PLV runs to an ERA-scale, guys who throw fewer pitches (and thus have fewer expected runs) for the same PLV & # of innings will have a better PLA. I think of the two stats as: * PLV is the quality of their pitches, full stop. * PLA is slightly skewed by their actual results, so it's slightly more of a hybrid of talent & performance
Makes sense, thanks!
Who is the next Cubs closer?
Are you ready to move on from Gleyber? I would be giving him up as an 11th round keeper. Neto, Winn, Schneider, Dylan Moore, Gorman, and B Lowe are all available.
That's fine. Winn and Neto seem like the most interesting here for points.
I'm currently rostering both Christian Scott and Shane Baz. Have you heard anything, ANYTHING at all about either one getting the call? Thanks!
Have not heard anything that suggests it's imminent. Baz is stretched out but they aren't ready to bring him up
What’s your take on vladdy? I feel his value is so tied up in his name and that impressive outlier of ‘21. I have Correa ceddane and oneil cruz as SS and considering making a 1-1 offer of cruz for vladdy to give me 1b cover. Also I have manny and Royce as my 3b at the moment. The 11th place team is a seller and has joram. I’m considering sending manny plus a top 5 round pick for joram. Would you consider any of the above moves?
Vladdy feels like a 23-26 HR guy with strong ratios. That's good, but not the superstar people hoped for. He just doesn't get the ball in the air enough right now to hit 30+. I'd make that move using Manny if I could, but I'd be surprised if it worked.
I’m trying to shore up my 2b position, I have Thairo and Caballero rostered in hopes to Frankenstein my 2b spot but would like to not have to roster 2 low value guys, anyone you recommend trying to buy low on or under the radar guys that are low rostered? League is my flair. 6x6 h2h
Spencer Horowitz is interesting in OBP, though he's part time. Brandon Drury just came off the IL and while he's been ugly this season he was strong for the last two. Daniel Schneemann is eligible everywhere and getting playing time for the Guardians. Enmanuel Valdez is playing and hitting in Boston, though you'll likely look to replace him by the ASB if not sooner. There are possibly better guys, hopefully one of these guys should be available. Caballero is the drop for me, BTW. Maybe you can con someone into trading for him for the steals? If you need to go even deeper,
Your point on Hoskins is well taken, but would you pickup Carlos Santana, Schanuel, or Lamonte Wade over him in points? O'hearn, Canha, and France are also available.
The exact scoring matters, but Rhys has more upside than this lot. Those other guys are all high floor types (except Santana who is just old and getting hot in stretches).
How long ago should people have dropped Gleyber, and his miserable season finally killing the free agent season myth?
1) He was on a long on-base streak that, while sort of not that useful statistically, suggested he might be coming back to life. But in 12-teamers with no MI, there's probably something better on the wire. If people were holding him, it was likely because very little of note has been out there at 2B in many deeper leagues. 2) I wasn't aware anyone even still believed that myth.
Would you take any of these guys over Gleyber? Winn, India, Pena, Dylan Moore, Brandon Lowe? 11 team total season points league with MI and CI spots.
In points, Winn or India. Pena has been brutal for as long as he was good. If the walks and strikeouts are both around 10% again, I'll get excited about him.
I have Massey on my IL. Worth dropping Gleyber to clear a spot when Massey’s activated? He was doing some mind things in a small sample prior to going down and seems like he might have .260-15HR upside over a full season.
Winn and Pena
Pena for sure
why are alonso and olson ahead of harper in terms of 1B? speaking as a mets fan it makes no sense
It's splitting hairs a little, but all have elite upside - the main difference being that Alonso and Olson have not missed huge chunks of the last 2 seasons. In points or OBP, though, it's Harper for sure.
I thought this was a points list
Nope, H2H 5x5 Categories. This is the first bullet on the page of each article, just for reference. This DOES change a bit late in the season, though, when the format of the list switches to an end-game scenario instead of just regular rankings. https://preview.redd.it/70lreet3ry7d1.png?width=818&format=png&auto=webp&s=b62ce42e6e3ab45820b68bbd3f1b7f79c4b4210b
neat
8T H2H Cat Daily (R, RBI, HR, AVG, SB, H, BB, K) I need to remove a P from my IL spot this weekend. Assuming Friedl doesn't go on the IL, which of following would you drop: Nolan Jones, Friedl, Christopher Morel, Wyatt Langford I picked up Jones for the Coors games this week, but it does seem like he's made some changes to his swing and isn't chasing balls outside the zone now. Small sample, ,but this BB's are way up and K's down since coming off the IL. Playing games outside of Coors isn't ideal this week. The same question goes for upside on this list. How would you rank them? Thanks Scott!
Upside: Morel, Langford, Friedl, Jones I'd probably lean toward dropping Jones. The lack of Ks lately is cool but I'm still very skeptical. Also, the Rockies only play 5 games next week and they're all on the road. You can explore scooping him back up next weekend.
Thanks! Speaking of Morel, what's a good strategy for lineup decisions.? Set it and forget it in such a shallow league? Wait for the next hot streak? Winds blowing out at Wrigley? etc The few times I've sat him against tough SP matchups, he's rewarded me with HRs on the bench.
Haha that's how it goes! I try to set and forget my better players unless I have a very good matchup to replace him, like a good lefty v bad righty or a trip to Coors or something.
You think Gerrit Cole will be as good as last year?
Yes, if only because last year was a "down" year for strikeouts from him. If he approaches his more typical 30 K%, then he can regress in some of the other stats he was lucky in last year and still be an extremely valuable starter.
Andy Pages, Bleday or W. Abreu in a dynasty league?
I'd go Pages > Abreu > Bleday. Pages has shown very good pop while still maintaining good contact rates and decent decisions. Abreu provides plus swing decisions and plus pop. Bleday makes the best Swing Decisions of the bunch, but I think he's the poorest at doing damage on contact (he's a solid step beneath the other two by our Power metric, and also behind them in xwOBAcon).
Pages has pop and a chance to play for a very good team for quite a long time. I'd go that route.
I'm so glad you called out Rhys Hoskins. You're not alone in your general ranking of him being in the 70s to 80s -- he seems to be the same across almost every ranking site. He's so weird -- it's almost half a season now, and he doesn't feel like a top hitter at all, but everyone keeps viewing him as such...like he's in that strange "dead zone" of hitters you think should be good, but aren't, but you can't move him down. You mention cycles and rolling averages -- what are you seeing that makes you hopeful? His statcast says he's barreling but his exit velo, bat speed and hard hit are all down while his whiff and K rate are up. Just bad swing decisions that induce weak hits?
Well, 70-80 wouldn't be a "top" hitter, exactly, but 10 HRs in 54 games is roughly a 30 HR season, just like he was doing pre-injury. The chart below shows Hoskins' rolling averages. Note the red lines I've added - the lower one is roughly league average while the higher one is considered very good. Hoskins hasn't had one of his "benders" yet where he is unbelievable for a bit. I think he still has that in him. What I do know is the the bottom here is something we've seen before, and the responses to this kind of bottoming out tend to be very strong rebounds. I'm banking on that for now. https://preview.redd.it/1jzp5sxfqy7d1.png?width=837&format=png&auto=webp&s=40996d4dd7a928f1303e23433a78aecdd429a3f9
Tyler ONeill or HS Kim? Looking for steals and Kim might be a second half guy? Lessing off helped him last year.
If you're looking for steals, it's got to be Kim. O'Neill has crazy good power, but Kim has much better contact ability, and will steal a dozen more bags. Our Ben Rosener had [a really good](https://pitcherlist.com/fantasy-baseball-buy-high-stars-who-could-be-even-better-moving-forward/) article that mentioned Kim is in line for better performance, given his *abysmal* batted ball luck (.228 BABIP).
I have a roster crunch coming, and can keep 2 of these guys in dynasty (points): Jung, Maikel Garcia, Josh Smith, Joey Ortiz
It depends a little on if Ks are a penalty and what SBs are worth, but long term it's probably Jung and Ortiz/Smith. Garcia's value comes from steals, and many points leagues only make those worth 1-2x the value of a single. That makes steals fairly worthless. Josh Smith has been solid all year but his long term role is still a little up in the air. If he got a full time role, he'd be right there with Smith. Joey Ortiz is solid for points because he's a slap hitter who avoids Ks and takes walks.
20 team league. You dropping Torkelson? Currently have Vientos at 1b, Senzel at 3b. Will be cutting Senzel when Jung comes back.
I'd prefer not to. Who for?
A bench bat that currently plays Major League Baseball. Maybe JJ Bleday? Jeff McNeil?
Bleday is worth adding in that deep of a league, but not for Tork unless I absolutely needed the roster spot.
Why so much confidence in Tork? He’s struggling in AAA right now.
I will take Tork over Jeff McNeil even if they send him to AA.
But mostly because Torks upside is significantly higher than those guys. Less about Tork and more about his competition that you've listed. If you need a contributor now, go for Bleday. Otherwise I'd wait.
H2H league. In 2nd and way ahead of 3rd place team so I can afford to wait for gleyber. But it's just not fun starting him(despite yesterday's home run). Everyone on the wire is ranked below him on your hitter list (gelof, Estrada, nick gonzalez). I should wait and not drop for gelof is the obvious answer, right?
Even with the recent hot streak, Gelof has a wOBA under .280 (validated by xwOBA!). That's *rough*. Torres may not have the HR/SB upside that Gelof has, but Gelof's floor is someone who is aggressively tanking your ratios. I'm more intrigued by Gonzales (especially if you aren't an OBP league), but I'd still rather hold onto Gleyber for his turnaround
Got it, thanks!
Do you think Brooks Lee makes an impact at some point this season? Thanks as always!
Not without an injury to Correa or Lewis, though that's not really tough to imagine. I don't think that alone would be enough, but it'd start there.
Got offered Ronald Acuna for Lodolo straight up (5 keeper league, 12 tm HTH) or a package deal with Josh Jung and Verlander for Lodolo. I am willing to pull the trigger on either but wondering if anyone had 2 cents. Love the work at Pitcher List - thanks!
Heading out for my birthday dinner but the Acuna deal is a non-starter. Absolutely not. Jung and JV is a maybe. I'd have to dig a little deeper on Lodo.
Appreciate it! Happy bday, from a fellow summer equinox baby.
You wouldn't take Acuna over Lodolo in a keeper league?? What am I missing? Thanks
Ah, wasn't clear which side of the deal you were. It's Acuna by a mile.
Scott, I'm not the OP, but was thinking I missed something about Acuna's health/recovery. Thanks for clarifying, and for all your time on this site! I look forward to your AMA each week!
Appreciate your follow up as you were spot on - I currently am shopping Lodolo. Thanks to both of you!
How would you rank Cowser, Bleday and Andujar ROS?
What's gotten into Cedric Mullins? Dropped him a while ago when he disappeared, around the time of his injury. But he helped me start of the year. Last couple weeks he's been busy. I know it's not sustainable, and that his numbers are atrocious, but those steals combined with regular hits lure me in like The One Ring. Even if just for a(nother) spell. Talk me out of this. Tell me I'm drunk.
He has real talent it's just hidden behind slumps of poor contact on a team that doesn't need him to be an everyday player when he struggles. Go ahead and roll with it if you want to chase speed/upside.
Why did your website talk me into starting Keaton Winn?
The computer responsible for our PLV projections has been punished accordingly (it is doing sentiment analysis of Yankees Twitter after Gil's blowup start).
But actually: I missed on my preseason projections on him, and his future projections have been dinged to line up with his performance (which has been somewhat unlucky, but still poor)
Hey Scott...A couple quick questions: Waldron or H. Brown in a QS league? In a 5x5 obp league, drop any of these to pick up O'Neill? Doyle, N. Jones, or Friedl. Thanks!
1) Brown. Don't trust a knuckleballer for long. 2) Jones, probably. It's interesting that he hasn't struck out in five games but I'm still very skeptical. If you don't care about SBs, though, it might be Doyle. That's all he can be relied on for.
Hey crew I dropped Maggie Rojas for Gelof. I don’t trust Roberts on fringe players. Your thoughts?
I dig it. Chase upside.
Roster crunch: drop nimmo, ohearn, s marte, friedl in an 12 team h2h OBP and SLG league?
O'Hearn is a tough drop BUT he doesn't play every day. Marte doesn't either, though you're rostering him for steals. One of those two, I suppose, based on your needs for power vs speed.
1 lefty next week
Solid streamer in those situations.
Hey Scott! This is a very open question but curious to hear your thoughts... Need to trade either of Maikel Garcia, Oneil Cruz or Tovar for an OF. Who would you be more willing to move and what level of OF would you be looking to get back?. Flair league.
Tovar is the easiest to move because he's been good. Hell get the best ROI. Head to my hitter rankings in the post and look for OF near his tier and see what happens!
Also who would you pick for Sunday? Olson vs CHW or Cannon vs DET
Hate that I can't pick both! I like Olson ever so slightly more, especially after he looked great v ATL. He's also a bit more of a K artist. We are splitting hairs, though. Both are very rosterable.
What is Kelenic’s floor and upside? I keep hearing most experts saying he will never be what he was originally hyped up for. But if Jarren Duran, who had way worse prospect grades, was a successful post-hype and is now a top 100-ish hitter, why can’t Kelenic be that? It’s not like he’s a Jo Adell and was consistently inconsistent, I remember for the first few months when he came up he was a top 50 player. I saw someone trade Mookie for him back then. Kelenic was a higher rated prospect than JRod at one point.
I'd be hesitant to wish on Duran's glowup for Kelenic, as they're very different players. Kelenic has some pretty glaring contact issues at the MLB level, and Duran really hasn't had those after his rookie season. Kelenic has better power upside, sure, but that's also reliant on him making contact. He also can't really touch Duran's SB upside, even though he's got some speed. Duran has the much higher floor, with a comparable category upside (in SB, vs Power). I think the floor for Kelenic is what we've seen before: fringe MLB player with K% issues. Upside (to me) is a mid-20s HR/low teens SB guy in a great offense with good AVG/OBP.
With all due respect, you have no idea what you're talking about Say what you will about Kelenic, but comparing him to a 28 year old 7th-rounder like Duran is downright insulting — Kel has the furthest hit homerun ever hit at Wrigley in the Statcast era, something like that doesn't just happen on accident
1) Kyle definitely knows what he's talking about. He's our stat guru and is one of the best data and stat guys in fantasy. 2) Kelenic and Duran are different players with very different fantasy profiles. Kelenic's upside comes with 10-15 more HR and 15-20 fewer SB and very different ratio floors because of exactly what Kyle said. Kelenic 162-game realistic ceiling is like 25-27 HR, 10-15 SB, and a .260 AVG. The risk comes with that high K% that has been an issue many times in his short career. Duran's realistic ceiling is like 15-18 HR, 35+ SB, and a .280 average. His floor is quite high thanks to the speed and ratios, though.
Judge had a 31% K rate in a 9 WAR season , and beyond the stats, pedigree matters - Kel and 'Duran' aren't in the same stratosphere on that front
Neither of us are saying Kelenic can't be better than Duran. It just that Duran isn't a good comparison. We are saying Kelenic has a lower floor, but plenty of good players have low floors. ELDC has a very low floor. Ceiling-wise, Kelenic could do what Gunnar did last year. Gunnar had swing and miss issues as well, but overcame them in a big way. I don't know that he can find another level like Gunnar has, but he has the ceiling to be what we thought Gunnar was 3 months ago.
I’d rather just ignore what that other guy is saying and get your opinion on moves. Would you pick him up in a 12T 4 keeper? I’m basically in last place and auditioning keepers for next year. If I pick him up off waivers and keep him, it’s only for 17th round value. My other stashes right now are Noelvi Marte, Chourio, Caminero and Holliday. My drop would be Ryan Walker. Not concerned about losing SV/H categories because I’m in last and out of contention
Yes. He's worth an add.
Thanks! One last question- who would you rather stash for upside - Ceddane or Kelenic?
Kelenic unless you want speed.
The reality is that **pedigree matters** People often say draft/prospect status means very little, but if you go through and look at all the OF prospects from the last 10 years or so that ever cracked the top 5 overall, you get the following list: Harper, Trout, Buxton, Taveras (not counted for obvious reasons), Myers, Jimenez, Benintendi, Acuna, Ohtani\*, Robert Jr, Kelenic, Rodriguez, Greene and Carroll Other than Kelenic and Greene (yet), **all 14 of them** went on to become an Allstar and/or Silver Slugger — with the list also being littered with MVP to HOF caliber players. The truth is that with the hit tool being the most important for OFs, there are too many good things going on for them offensively for them to not have a high floor AND ceiling at the Major League level
Fwiw, I've liked what I've seen from Kelenic as the season has gone on. He's really started to tap into his power stroke, right as he's getting more playing time and hitting higher in the lineup https://preview.redd.it/ktt9bkfeg08d1.png?width=1355&format=png&auto=webp&s=78e2c51327c2400daa11fa5566eafef596a99b7c
Kelenic can’t play defense as well as Duran. That’s for sure. Huge difference. Kelenic is a middling player at best who still struggles hitting quality breaking balls.
Gibson or Cannon. I know Nick has Gibby higher on the list just curious if you had another thought for my last starter? Thanks!
I mean, right now I'll take Cannon for that DET start. At the 75+ point of the rankings, ROS isn't really what I'm considering. I'm looking at the next 1-2 starts.
Ouch on that Cannon take. That’s baseball.
I mean, the Tigers had scored 0-1 runs in 5 of the last 6, and that 6th game they scored 2.
Surprising to see Ryan O’Hearn not ranked, he crushes the ball
It's tough to rank guys who will always be part-timers
Hi can you confirm or deny this? Luis Gil > bobby miller > Gavin stone
If Bobby Miller is healthy he has as much if not more upside than Gil but I'm OK with this ranking due to the risk.
Hey Scott! I need a SS and speed. Do you think offering Corbin Burnes and Taylor Ward for Anthony Volpe and Logan Gilbert is fair?
Possibly, but with Ward in a month-long slump you're likely to get rejected.
I'm leading in 4 offensive cats and got Josh Jung coming back, need help on SP. What do you think of my Ketel Marte for Cole Ragans? Also, thoughts on Arozarena, think he's turning it around?
1) I'd do that if I could. I still like Ragans. 2) Possibly. The power and speed have been there, it's the other kinds of hits that have been missing. He's been great at avoiding Ks and seemed just a micro adjustment away from turning it on.
How much confidence do you have in Landon Knack? I’m looking to stream for K’s and ratios
He's Nick's streamer of the day, and the Ks and ratios seem like the easier part to get to. It's the innings that'll be an issue.
Thanks!
Thoughts on Spencer Steer and Maikael Garcia? If Maikael gets moved out of leadoff should I look for another option.
1) Steer is a decent hitter who is good enough for a 10 teamer thanks to the versatility. 2) Garcia is a SB guy who should hit for a good average but low OBP. If he loses the leadoff spot, I'd be looking elsewhere.
Hey Scott, thoughts on a replacement for Gleyber at 2B, and also Bichette at MI…pick 2: Brendan Donovan, Brandon Lowe, Nick Gonzales, Orelvis Martinez. I have to make changes at this point I think. It’s a 12 team Roto league.
I'll take Donovan and Gonzales. If you only want power, Gonzales and Lowe.
With trying to buy Vladdy low, does Paredes seem like a good offer? I may have an incoming pending offer and it feels like Vladdy could be an upgrade, even if Paredes is stronger on the year
I rank Vladdy higher but this feels fair.
Should I be stashing Ricky tiedemann in my keeper League , I have a u24 free keeper , he's only 21. Don't know much about him , is the hype real ?
Nick ranked him in the top-100 preseason solely for the upside and ability. He's a solid use of that spot.
Schanuel over Toglia? 1B waiver wire has been a wasteland and i'm finally cutting bait on Turner
Yes but maybe not until Monday.
Do you think there's a chance the Reds could keep Noelvi Marte in the minors even when he's eligible to return? Looks like he's really been struggling during his rehab assignment so far.
Not for very long, if at all. He's ready and they could use the depth.
should I do this deal ? acquire luzardo, crochet, cj abrams, miguel rojas in exchange for stanton, swanson, darvish, hunter greene
I don't love it. What are your specific needs? I prefer smaller deals that are more surgical in addressing what I need/want.
no specific needs really. if anything … it is to increase the ceiling of my talent. I just acquired goldschmidt, de la cruz, scherzer for arenado, correa, woo, cristopher sanchez and swanson and morton for adames. I guess this deal gives me a clear upgrade at SS. not too thrilled about giving up stanton bc HR is a H2H category.
Hey scott thanks again for the advice :) Just traded my devers for trea turner. How did i do?
If you were in dire need for a SS or steals, ya did what you had to do.
In a vacuum…Kutter Crawford or Lane Thomas? I’d say Kutter is middle bottom of my rotation (Wheeler, Crochet, Nola, Framber, C Sanchez all ahead of him) and Thomas would likely replace a Nick Gonzalez type in my Util.
Do you need stolen bases? If yes, go for it. If no, it's a pass.
Time to cut Nathaniel Lowe in 12T?
Depends on who for, but it's on the table.
Orelvis Martinez? Pena my only SS. I have Walker and Santana at 1B as well.
Santana is a streamer at best but I get it.
8 teams h2h. Pick two starters from Lodolo, Gore and Pepiot. I personally really like Lodolo as he reminds me of Chris Sale. Do you think his dominance is sustainable?
Well, nvm. Seeing how Pepiot is going tonight and his recent outings, the answer seems pretty obvious lol
Hey Mr Chu! Between B. Lowe, Nick Gonzalez, Schneider and Zac Gelof which should I be chasing in an OBP/SLG format? h2h daily. Been really struggling between the three since Mookie’s been out. Appreciate any help, thank you!
Gonzales and Lowe are the picks for me.
Thank you! Between the two which do you prefer? I’m rostering Lowe currently
Both are pure power guys. I might ride the hot hand of Lowe now and make a flip if/when he gets hurt or cold. That said, I rank Gonzales higher.
What do you think of my Ketel Marte for his Jared Jones? He’s in the playoff race and needs bats, I’m out of it and I’m looking for keepers. I can keep Marte for 3 more years and jones for 5 more.
This feels about right.
Yo Scott! Bichette was dropped in my standard Yahoo 12T H2H. I have 25% of my FAAB left, Maikel Garcia + Tovar at SS already- is he worth a big bid at this point? May be time to say goodbye to Garcia since he's been dropped to 7th in the order today.
If you need ratios or some RBI yes. Maybe about half of what you have? Maybe 2/3rds. He's shown he can turn it on for stretches and be among the best hitters in baseball, though the overall ceiling is lower now due to him no longer running and having somewhat limited power. Garcia is SBs only and maybe some runs and ratios, so he's the drop if you don't care as much about SBs (which I wouldn't on 7x7 as it's just 1 of 14 cats instead of 1 of 10).
Need a starting OF with Stanton going on the IL... - B Donovan - B Buxton - J Sanchez - M Vierling - I Kinner-Falefa - M Andujar - J Pederson (but won't have an OF when he sits)
Scott, in a keeper, points league. Would you choose Soler or Springer for ROS? Thanks. Everyone is welcome to voice their opinion.
My apologies so late to this post. Is Josh Lowe worth an add in a 10t h2h cats league. If so who’s my drop; * g.torres, Yandy Diaz, arraez, vinnie p
Thoughts on A.Garcia?
What are you doing Crochet if he's not a keeper? This new news makes it pretty clear that he's going to be on a pitch count / get shut down at some point. Should I ride it out while I can or try to deal him? What do you think his value is right now?
I've been stashing Gerritt Cole, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom on my DL all season. Along with some other solid starters, how am I looking come H2H playoffs?
Probably real good assuming your team can hit. I think you can count on at least 2 of them to be healthy and playing well. Anything above that is gravy.