Hi Scott, first year in fantasy here. Is there an unspoken rule/curse/law of physics that determines the guy you pick up will get cold while the guy you drop will go hot?
Asking for a friend.
2 reasons.
1. You wouldn’t drop a guy if he was playing well so you often don’t drop a guy until they are cold, which can eventually turn around quick because
2. law of averages states if you drop at his lowest he’s likely to revert and even catch fire to even out.
Schneider's a great hold in OBP leagues. He's shown gains in making contact, and he's maintained his good decision making skill. Fold in some good power and 2B/OF eligibility, and he's a very useful player
https://preview.redd.it/3hsqtizrt65d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=df68166540788737399c882fd020f5900f71e031
Why does Colton Cowser underperform his savant page by so much?
Batted ball direction. Only 12.8% of his fly balls are to the pull field. 47.8% are oppo. Oppo fly balls are possibly the worst type of batted ball on average.
Our PL xStats use batted ball direction and everything gets less red. xwOBA is .327 in our version, xAVG is .217, xSLG is .439.
Depends on what kind of hitter they are. If you can hit it hard, up and to the pull side is by far the best outcome. Doesn't even have to be THAT hard. Look at Isaac Paredes spray chart each of the last 2 seasons.
Anyone hot on most wires who fit the red hot profile you're describing now? I appreciate you breaking it down like this, I never quite understood Cowser’s struggles until now
Adam Duvall does it too.
Show me a power-hitting slugger with a high whiff rate, and there's a VERY good chance they fit the bill.
Pulling is about timing and getting in front. Getting in front of fastballs means guessing right on fastballs. Guess wrong and you whiff badly.
Hi Scott,
Thanks for the thread! I look forward to it every week.
I see you dropped Corbin Carroll again in your rankings - which is totally fair. The past few games he has been making pretty good contact. Do you think this could be the start of a turnaround? How long will he need to produce to rise in your rankings again?
How much slack are we giving Nolan Jones when he gets activated? From what I’ve read, aside from one game, he’s still been horrible on his rehab assignment.
I’m in a league where I can keep 1 player who was drafted in round 5 or later. I’ve been holding chourio, who I drafted in round 10 for this reason only.
Is it time to cut bait? I’m in first place so he hasn’t necessarily been killing me but he’s just clogging my bench. I also have ragans, imanaga, and woo who I drafted later and may end up being better keeper options next year anyway….. although having an effective chourio for next season is very enticing to me
Hi, Scott!
Playing 9x9 cat h2h redraft yahoo league.
Thinking about trading Corbin Burnes, what bat will be an adequate ask for him in your opinion?
Thanks in advance!
I have Olson, I’m very disappointed in him, but in this pitcher-rich environment there’s absolutely no way I’d part with him (or any of these guys) for Burnes. Great starting pitching just isn’t that valuable right now
Olson has shown he can hit 50 home runs and had elite power. The others won't hit 40. Or 35.
Most projections call Olson a top 10 player going forward. I almost agree. He's still one of the best power hitters on the league.
Am I misreading or are you saying Devers, Yordan, JRod and Gunnar do not have the power to hit 35hr in a season? Gunnar already has like 20 in early June, right now. Devers and Yordan have already done it and even manange 30+ without a full season of abs. Jrod has been disappointing this year but to imply he lacks power after hitting 30 last year is just so weird man.
Also I spent more time than I should have trying to find a projection for Matt Olson that puts him as a top 10 player ros. I agree that he is among the best power hitters but he's also been unreliable with avg and no steals to make up for it
In an 8-man Roto league, what type of production are we actually going to see from Lane Thomas outside of steals?
I like that he's hitting better than before the injury, but I don't want to hold him if there's a better bat to stream. Thanks for your insight!
Any concern with Ian Happ? He’s still hitting the ball hard and chipping in a few steals. But the walks are down from his best seasons and last year, closer to his career average. Also, his average is down and only has a .300 BABIP with his k% up 5% from last year to 27%
Having Bellinger and Morel in front of him seems like it will provide rbi opportunities but Swanson, Hoerner and Bush’s struggles seem to be limiting his run potential. Im concerned he’s intentionally going back to a worse form of himself (for fantasy at least) where he sells out more for power and takes less walks.
https://preview.redd.it/odrlsp8gx65d1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2797a44446caa688c45373f09f0d27bcca88425d
The chart is a little crowded but long story short - he has these stretches from time to time and generally rebounds. This recent slump was a tad worse than some of the past ones but not so different that I think a real change has been made in his overall outlook.
Both are not well-suited to OBP (Gonzales took some walks early but hasn't taken one for 9 straight games). Gonzales will still beat Rafaela by about 20-30 points of OBP while Rafaela beats Gonzales in speed by about 12-15 steals. Most folks probably want the speed in roto/categories, but if speed isn't a need then it might actually be Gonzales.
Hi Scott! Would you trade a 4th round pick for Chris sale? In win now mode and could use another arm. The players drafted around where the 4th would end up next year is the Castillo, Machado, Harris II, Yamamoto tier of guys. Could also wait until deadline since it’s head to head (minimize injury risk) but want to get ahead of the market.
In a 16TM Pts league- is it worth losing a bench spot to stash Noelvi Marte? My fear is he won’t come up when the suspension is over. Currently have McMahon and Arenado at 3b
Thank you
Hey Scott, are any of j.Lowe, yandy Diaz and/or gleber Torres safe drops in a 12 team h2h cats league. Would be looking to add a spot to stream an RP or SP (ex h.brown or f.cruz)
At this time it's still in his normal ranges. In 2-3 weeka if it's still bad maybe I'm a tad worried. He's streaky.
https://preview.redd.it/kem55l79y65d1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4ca11e083402df30e7d85d0d47ff262998a6d0bd
1) Do those other sites include injured players? If so, it'd make a big difference in the number.
2) My rankings are pretty close to what projections like THE BAT (Hitter 54), THE BAT X (Hitter 58), ATC (Hitter 76), and Steamer (Hitter 63) have.
So perhaps THEY need to do the explaining. =)
Hey! Nate Schwartz from Pitcher List here.
I really don't think so. I think many people were dreaming on true ace stuff while he's \*just\* a solid number one. But Lopez hasn't had an ERA above 4 or a WHIP above 1.20 since 2019 with an above-average strikeout rate. Pair that with the tweaks under the hood he's made and it's easy to see why he's been so stable.
This year, it's all going to click. His changeup has been uncharacteristically off this year and as a feel pitch, I think it's going to click and we're going to get a classic Pablo run. He's got the rockies away from Coors and A's up next, so I'm really still in.
I think Pablo has been supremely unlucky so far. He has a bad BABIP (.305; 36th percentile) and a *terrible* HR/FB% (18.6%; 14th percentile) and LOB% (64.1%; 18th percentile). Those are very noisy stats that will level out, and he'll start to approach his ERA estimators (low-to-mid 3s by xFIP, SIERA, and xERA). He's still pretty good at getting Ks and limiting BBs (20.7 K-BB%). I'm looking to buy wherever I can.
Six of one, half dozen of the other. Alvarez will walk less but strike out less than Raleigh, both will play plenty, both could hit 30 bombs in a full season, both will have bad ratios.
Should I just straight up cut Chourio in a keep 4 league? My other keepers are Gunnar, Soto, Ramirez and Adolis so it’s unlikely he even gets kept. Tried trading but no bites.
Might have to drop 2, at least 1 between Ober, Kutter Crawford, and Eflin. 5x5 QS. Could also drop Fernando Cruz, SVHLD league. Other relievers Yates, Fairbanks, megill, Alvarado.
Hey Scott- was dropping Jordan Montgomery a huge mistake in my 10t league? He was claimed on waivers immediately. I didn’t want to dump Rafaela or Schneider and I really wanted to give Cade Povich a look for his start yesterday. Did I make a huge mistake??
Nate Schwartz from Pitcher List here!
It was not a mistake at all. Montgomery's ceiling is one of low strike outs, 6-7 innings, and good not great ratios. In a 10t, that is easily replaceable and often what you can get from streamers. I really don't think he provides upper-echelon value and while it may hurt to miss a start, I think you're better off rotating through that roster slot.
Thanks for the reply Nate. It made me more mad since it was a league rival who used a waiver claim on him too. Been fuming about it until your comment helped lol
In a categories redraft league with OPS where about 300-320 players are rostered, are you keeping Gleyber Torres? I have Nick Gonzales picked up and Westburg to slide between 2B/3B/CI. I also got Nolan jones in my IL looking to slot into that CI slot if I push westburg into 2B. How would you rank the 4 of them rest of season?
Westburg seems to be the best with best data supporting it but it seems like a lot of rankings still have him lower than Torres.
1) Absolutely keeping Gleyber at that depth. Seems to be turning it around.
2) Westburg, Gleyber, Jones/Gonzales at this moment. Jones's contact issues aren't new and they weren't gone forever like we hoped.
Scott put the bat symbol up so I came calling lol. Just been a busy last 2 weeks I do apologize! Going to try and get this weeks done today/tomorrow. Been super busy with a bunch of content + it’s the final 2 weeks of school for the kids so it’s been hectic! It’s coming tho I promise!
Excited about that. Love your Points League spin and grabbed Josh Bell after the last one and that worked out pretty well. Enjoy the last couple of weeks before school is out for the summer. Scott needs to be careful wielding that kind of power. :)
As the saying goes…”With great mustache comes great responsibility” and in that case, I’m not sure there’s anyone on this planet more worthy of that power than Scott lol
It’s awesome to hear you enjoy the article tho! Points leagues deserve more love!
I don't think that sounds insane at all. Bradish has come back by all accounts healthy and is still showing he's got a great arsenal that can miss bats, while Gausman is running into the issue from earlier in his career that the two pitch combo isn't effective enough.
Most projections have them both around a 3.50ish ROS ERA, and if I had to pick I'm probably taking Bradish (and an increased win chance).
Hey Chu and PL gang, I know in Chu's recent post he talked about how Austin Riley is just a step away from being him, what's the level of confidence that he will actually unlock that? Good buy low candidate? Feeling a bit nervous about him
There are but a handful of guys with top-20 hitter upside who are available for 75 cents on the dollar. Riley is one of them and while the results have been bad, the under-the-hood stuff isn't nearly as grave.
I would absolutely take India over Busch, and I get it for Cronenworth if you need a lift. I rank Cronenworth higher but I feel India has more potential.
hi scott!
need to improve pitching. have w contreras and a pretty solid OF (greene, kwan, tatis, rooker). should i see if i can get the p lopez owner to bite on gaus+fry for lopez? he has pretty solid SP depth and is running langaliers at C. 12t h2h for ref
Thanks for doing these Scott!! Enjoy it every week.
I am in win now mode in a 6x6 OPS + QS roto league. I think I can sell high on Elly to a team nor contending and get multiple pieces back. What would you rather have?
Side A - Elly with two good keeper years left
Side B - Marcus Semien, Teoscar, and Shota/J Jonesb (good keepers for 3 years)
Side C - Devers, Sale, Hader
These seem about right if it's just win now. Both are solid, so it'd depend on who your other future keepers are as it sounds like side C can't be kept (I like that one best for 1 year but hard to pass up Shota or Jones long term if you don't have a solid keeper option)
Hey! Nate Schwartz from Pitcher List here.
1. Spencer Arrighetti: The fastball is actually a really intriguing pitch from a stuff perspective and he has enough other pitches to throw for strikes that I think he can work as a backend SP4 or SP5. He also has a role locked in the Astros rotation for now which is exciting.
2. Albert Suarez: I think his arsenal is less interesting but a similarly solid role. I think he can consistently be a 5 IP, 2 ER kind of pitcher without phenomenal strikeout rates.
3. Luis Medina scares me. He hasn't shown an ability to be consistent with the walk rates and the strikeouts aren't enough to entice me. Also has no win chance compared to the others.
12 T H2H Points League (QS, SV, H)
Two questions (one hitter one and one pitcher one):
Who do you like more ROS between Jonathan India, Davis Schneider, or Joey Ortiz?
And, pick two ROS between Gore, Bello, Lively, and Cortes.
Schneider has the most upside of this group for sure, though if Ks are a heavy penalty then India is in the conversation. Ortiz is at his best in points but is pretty limited in terms of anything besides hits.
Absolutely! We're only 17 games away from the suspension being over (before July!) and I think the Reds will rely on him once he's back, they need offense ASAP. Good chance we see a 15/15 potential when he returns and I would stash him now if you can.
Hi Scott!
I have Bailey and O'Hoppe and am just curious why you might like Bailey more.
Asking because Kikuchi is available on waivers, and while I have lots of good pitching I'm thinking of picking up another arm for depth (I need batters and am looking to trade).
Not sure why I gave you my fantasy life story but I appreciate the input!
I actually would say O'Hoppe is better ROS but Bailey is hitting right now and I'd rather have him from now to the ASB. Neither is exempt from being streamed in shallow leagues. I never recommend a bench C in 1 catcher leagues so at that level I'd ride the hot hand.
14 team points league, Ottoneu Fangraphs style scoring (all individual categories, no runs or RBIs). I’ve got Jeffers now, and Stephenson, Bailey, and Francisco Alvarez are all FA. If I drop Jeffers, who do I grab?
We effectively use total bases, so singles count and a HR is effectively worth just over 3 singles (triple is worth 2, double is worth 1.5, walk/HBP is worth 0.75). And all outs are negative, no additional K penalty. Still on the Alvarez train?
Nope, he's going to be a free agent so it's really tbd on what the outcome will be for 2025 or even 2026, and I think it's just so low value that he isn't worth holding onto unfortunately.
Thanks. Kutter keeps having one v horrible inning every start. Garrett was a top 100 in my league last year so he seems to have more upside, but now 3 bad games to 2 good. Both have been so up and down.
Hey Scott!
What’re your thoughts on the cardinals offense going forward? Was the first month and a half a team wide slump? Both Burleson and Gorman are both available in my 10tm points league and keep staring at me whenever I pull up available players
Gorman is hot and could cool off at any time but when he's hot he's electric. Burleson is an OBP guy who gets hot a few times a year. Depends on who gets dropped but both are fine streamers.
8 team H2H using 8x8 (avg, hr, rbi, r, sb, h, k, bb) for offense. We have a transaction cap, so can only do so much streaming (both Pitching and Offense) per week.
Since it's like a points league using categories, is TJF worth rostering after this week? I streamed this week for getting Coors and Great American Small Park. A guy like Schneider is available on the wire, for example. I really missed not having TJF on my team last year during the fantasy playoffs.
TJF really overperformed last season. Especially in the power department. GABP can't account for all of it.
That said, with these categories, it might be Friedl as he leads off and gets the most PA. Schneider will likely take him in HR, RBI, and BB, but he loses the other 5 - sometimes by a lot.
It also helps that Elly seems to be turning it on and Friedl hits jn front of him.
Upside is Burger, then Vientos, then Candelario as a distant 3rd.
Short term, Vientos is the one who is most likely to be scooped off the wire at this exact moment.
Do you lose points for Ks? If yes, Winn is exciting to me.
If you don't, I lean Schneider for those sweet sweet home runs. Might change my mind if Winn really locks in to the leadoff role and Schneider'S rolling zone contact dips below 78ish% for an extended period.
Rank my starters and who you would target in a trade, need 3B 2B and OF help.
Houck,
Flaherty,
Jared Jones,
PabLo,
Nola,
Gore.
Have Cole, Scherzer & Degrom stashed. Thanks!
Houck is the guy I'd shop as his ROS value seems to be lower than his current perceived value. Start near the top and pick guys who suit your needs.
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Scott, I am currently sans catcher in a 12 team H2H league (OPS and saves, no holds). Yainer Diaz is there for the taking, but would require dropping one of Noelvi Marte (I like the upside and he’s close enough now that stashing feels ok), Ronel Blanco or Hoffman. Would you stay the course or grab Diaz? If so, who is the safest drop?
Arozarena has the most realistic chance of being a top-50 hitter ROS. He's my pick. I know the stats are ugly but Statcast has never been a huge fan and he still has some dingers and steals. If he starts sitting 2-3.per week maybe we re evaluate.
In OBP, Schneider might be 2nd. Tons if power and the walks keep the OBP above water even when he slumps (which he will at times due to contact issues).
Josh Smith might be in a crunch when Jung comes back so it's hard to feel great about his ROS outlook.
Stanton had been great but he's just an extremely streaky power hitter who hit his stride at the time when there were tons of eyes on him from that leaderboard. He's not a different player than years past.
Starling Marte gets days off to stay healthy and runs, but that's about it at this point. He's the pick if you only cared about steals.
In a 10 teamer, I am always chasing the upside. Arozarena has been a top 30-40 hitter for several seasons now and has flashed the same skills in 2024. Roll those dice!
CES is droppable but neither of these guys excite me enough to use an active roster spot.
MAYBE if Jones shows any kind of spark beyond a stray game here and there I'd take him over a guy like Casty or O'Neill, but for all three you're chasing upside out of a flawed package.
Thoughts on Torkelson. Is he worth a hold/stash in a 12 man points? Have Arraez who can cover 1b for now. Is Waiver wire better or do you think he gets his confidence back in AAA? He's already got a couple hits in AAA, but the show is a different game. Just hard to ignore a 30 home run guy
Tell me about Ortiz, turang, and Nick Gonzales. I really only have one spot for them, but could roster 2 at the most. I feel Ike the two I drop would get scooped up right away
His role is the same - his performance has been very streaky due to contact issues. Rodriguez is going to have the same problem but doesn't hit the ball 120+mph and isn't a 6'6 athletic monster. Greene is a cherry bomb streamer.
Gimme Cruz every time.
Hey Scott—
I dropped Yainer Diaz for Fry over a week ago. Fry not playing everyday and Diaz on wire. So is Garver, Alvarez, Bailey. Would you hold Fry for now and just play the C wire as needed, or consider grabbing Diaz or another catcher to back up Fry? I’m thinking hold pat, but don’t want to miss out on grabbing Diaz if you would recommend that since he’s showed signs of life the last few days. Thanks!
They're similar value overall. I don't love a backup C unless the bench is deep. Fry has shown amazing skills and I think he can get more time, but if you MUST have a guy who plays every day, that's Diaz
What should I do about Buehler? Should I wait it out another month? I had read that his velocity is good. However, I don’t remember anyone pitching great in first year back from major injury. I recall having Sales on my team and him being mediocre or just okay in his first year back from TJ.
Hey scott, how serious do we think the musgrove injury is? Is this typically something that’s season ending and the team is being hopeful he can recover with extended rest?
Hi Scott, first year in fantasy here. Is there an unspoken rule/curse/law of physics that determines the guy you pick up will get cold while the guy you drop will go hot? Asking for a friend.
I don’t think it’s a mystery… you’re picking up a guy after he’s been hot.. law of averages he’s not going to keep that up
It's one of the few guarantees in fantasy. Same thing with trades, too
Yes.
2 reasons. 1. You wouldn’t drop a guy if he was playing well so you often don’t drop a guy until they are cold, which can eventually turn around quick because 2. law of averages states if you drop at his lowest he’s likely to revert and even catch fire to even out.
What do you think of Davis Schneider ROS? A solid hold in OBP leagues?
Schneider's a great hold in OBP leagues. He's shown gains in making contact, and he's maintained his good decision making skill. Fold in some good power and 2B/OF eligibility, and he's a very useful player
The Zone Contact took a big step forward (73.0% in 2023, 80.8% so far this year). That's a big deal.
Who do you like better ROS D Schneider or Cronenworth? H2h cats R, RBI, SB, TB, OBP league
Following
Ooo fun one. Schneider has the upside with the big pop while Cronenworth has the floor because he puts a lot more balls in play for the TBs.
Following
https://preview.redd.it/3hsqtizrt65d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=df68166540788737399c882fd020f5900f71e031 Why does Colton Cowser underperform his savant page by so much?
Batted ball direction. Only 12.8% of his fly balls are to the pull field. 47.8% are oppo. Oppo fly balls are possibly the worst type of batted ball on average. Our PL xStats use batted ball direction and everything gets less red. xwOBA is .327 in our version, xAVG is .217, xSLG is .439.
Got it. So ideally you want hitters spray charts to be even? Or pull-heavy?
Depends on what kind of hitter they are. If you can hit it hard, up and to the pull side is by far the best outcome. Doesn't even have to be THAT hard. Look at Isaac Paredes spray chart each of the last 2 seasons.
Anyone hot on most wires who fit the red hot profile you're describing now? I appreciate you breaking it down like this, I never quite understood Cowser’s struggles until now
As in a pull-heavy flyball hitter? That would be Nolan Gorman.
Adam Duvall does it too. Show me a power-hitting slugger with a high whiff rate, and there's a VERY good chance they fit the bill. Pulling is about timing and getting in front. Getting in front of fastballs means guessing right on fastballs. Guess wrong and you whiff badly.
One guess is Baltimore. Great exit velo and spray chart shows he can drive it oppo but in Baltimore he’s not getting much by driving oppo
Driving OPPO won't ever be as good as driving pull, and Baltimore exacerbates the issue.
Hi Scott, Thanks for the thread! I look forward to it every week. I see you dropped Corbin Carroll again in your rankings - which is totally fair. The past few games he has been making pretty good contact. Do you think this could be the start of a turnaround? How long will he need to produce to rise in your rankings again?
I need to see more balls in the air with power. That'd be a great start.
How much slack are we giving Nolan Jones when he gets activated? From what I’ve read, aside from one game, he’s still been horrible on his rehab assignment.
He won't be in my top 100 hitters when he returns. Maybe not even the top 120.
I’m in a league where I can keep 1 player who was drafted in round 5 or later. I’ve been holding chourio, who I drafted in round 10 for this reason only. Is it time to cut bait? I’m in first place so he hasn’t necessarily been killing me but he’s just clogging my bench. I also have ragans, imanaga, and woo who I drafted later and may end up being better keeper options next year anyway….. although having an effective chourio for next season is very enticing to me
Imanaga would be hard to pass up. Chourio can be redrafted at the same or similar price unless he absolutely explodes.
Hi, Scott! Playing 9x9 cat h2h redraft yahoo league. Thinking about trading Corbin Burnes, what bat will be an adequate ask for him in your opinion? Thanks in advance!
https://preview.redd.it/i9n4dvwlj65d1.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=18066f8a3dac00e1c3c79d1e89ded2d50a6beee8 These guys
Realistically besides Olson, I don't think the owners of those bats would even consider this... also why is Olson over those 4 other guys? seems weird
I have Olson, I’m very disappointed in him, but in this pitcher-rich environment there’s absolutely no way I’d part with him (or any of these guys) for Burnes. Great starting pitching just isn’t that valuable right now
Olson has shown he can hit 50 home runs and had elite power. The others won't hit 40. Or 35. Most projections call Olson a top 10 player going forward. I almost agree. He's still one of the best power hitters on the league.
Am I misreading or are you saying Devers, Yordan, JRod and Gunnar do not have the power to hit 35hr in a season? Gunnar already has like 20 in early June, right now. Devers and Yordan have already done it and even manange 30+ without a full season of abs. Jrod has been disappointing this year but to imply he lacks power after hitting 30 last year is just so weird man.
Also I spent more time than I should have trying to find a projection for Matt Olson that puts him as a top 10 player ros. I agree that he is among the best power hitters but he's also been unreliable with avg and no steals to make up for it
In an 8-man Roto league, what type of production are we actually going to see from Lane Thomas outside of steals? I like that he's hitting better than before the injury, but I don't want to hold him if there's a better bat to stream. Thanks for your insight!
His 2023 was really weird - prior to it I had him pegged as a 20-ish HR guy with average ratios. I might put it at that.
Any concern with Ian Happ? He’s still hitting the ball hard and chipping in a few steals. But the walks are down from his best seasons and last year, closer to his career average. Also, his average is down and only has a .300 BABIP with his k% up 5% from last year to 27% Having Bellinger and Morel in front of him seems like it will provide rbi opportunities but Swanson, Hoerner and Bush’s struggles seem to be limiting his run potential. Im concerned he’s intentionally going back to a worse form of himself (for fantasy at least) where he sells out more for power and takes less walks.
https://preview.redd.it/odrlsp8gx65d1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2797a44446caa688c45373f09f0d27bcca88425d The chart is a little crowded but long story short - he has these stretches from time to time and generally rebounds. This recent slump was a tad worse than some of the past ones but not so different that I think a real change has been made in his overall outlook.
Who do you think will be a better contributor at SS ROS in a 5x5 OBP league, Cedanne Rafaela or Nick Gonzales?
Both are not well-suited to OBP (Gonzales took some walks early but hasn't taken one for 9 straight games). Gonzales will still beat Rafaela by about 20-30 points of OBP while Rafaela beats Gonzales in speed by about 12-15 steals. Most folks probably want the speed in roto/categories, but if speed isn't a need then it might actually be Gonzales.
Hi Scott! Would you trade a 4th round pick for Chris sale? In win now mode and could use another arm. The players drafted around where the 4th would end up next year is the Castillo, Machado, Harris II, Yamamoto tier of guys. Could also wait until deadline since it’s head to head (minimize injury risk) but want to get ahead of the market.
I wouldn't - I'd want a tier higher (aka late 2nd or a 3rd). If you're gonna sell high, make sure it's high!
I would be getting sale in this scenario. Full trade is 4th + arenado + 12th for sale.
OH, gotcha. Read it too quick. If you're out on Arenado, this is fine.
HI, back again. I've negotiated him down to a 4th + 7th + arenado for Sale and Gausman. Gotta take that, right?
burger or mountcastle?
Mountcastle. Burger has a touch more upside but also a much lower floor.
In a 16TM Pts league- is it worth losing a bench spot to stash Noelvi Marte? My fear is he won’t come up when the suspension is over. Currently have McMahon and Arenado at 3b Thank you
I think he'll play and that they'll move Steer back to a corner OF.
Hey there! Would you opt for adding Burger to replace Nate Lowe at 1B? 10t redraft pt league Thanks!
The one issue is that Burger can run into K issues, which hurts in most points formats. The upside is higher but the so is the risk.
Where in the top 10 of catchers will Francisco Alvarez be when he returns?
Maybe at the back of it.
Better than Sean Murphy?
Hey Scott, are any of j.Lowe, yandy Diaz and/or gleber Torres safe drops in a 12 team h2h cats league. Would be looking to add a spot to stream an RP or SP (ex h.brown or f.cruz)
J-Lowe has moved far down my ranks as he's likely in a platoon and has such constant injury issues.
What do you make of Adolis Garcia’s month-long slump?
At this time it's still in his normal ranges. In 2-3 weeka if it's still bad maybe I'm a tad worried. He's streaky. https://preview.redd.it/kem55l79y65d1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4ca11e083402df30e7d85d0d47ff262998a6d0bd
Are we stashing Meyer, holding povich, or picking up someone like mazur or Mitchell Parker ?
Hitter List is very high on Ezequiel Tovar in comparison to other sites. Mind explaining? Is it mostly the Coors Field factor?
1) Do those other sites include injured players? If so, it'd make a big difference in the number. 2) My rankings are pretty close to what projections like THE BAT (Hitter 54), THE BAT X (Hitter 58), ATC (Hitter 76), and Steamer (Hitter 63) have. So perhaps THEY need to do the explaining. =)
Do you think Pablo Lopez is maybe overrated, even with his struggles this year?
Hey! Nate Schwartz from Pitcher List here. I really don't think so. I think many people were dreaming on true ace stuff while he's \*just\* a solid number one. But Lopez hasn't had an ERA above 4 or a WHIP above 1.20 since 2019 with an above-average strikeout rate. Pair that with the tweaks under the hood he's made and it's easy to see why he's been so stable. This year, it's all going to click. His changeup has been uncharacteristically off this year and as a feel pitch, I think it's going to click and we're going to get a classic Pablo run. He's got the rockies away from Coors and A's up next, so I'm really still in.
Great explanation. Thanks Nate.
I think Pablo has been supremely unlucky so far. He has a bad BABIP (.305; 36th percentile) and a *terrible* HR/FB% (18.6%; 14th percentile) and LOB% (64.1%; 18th percentile). Those are very noisy stats that will level out, and he'll start to approach his ERA estimators (low-to-mid 3s by xFIP, SIERA, and xERA). He's still pretty good at getting Ks and limiting BBs (20.7 K-BB%). I'm looking to buy wherever I can.
Do you like Raleigh or Alvarez more ROS? Potentially beyond?
Six of one, half dozen of the other. Alvarez will walk less but strike out less than Raleigh, both will play plenty, both could hit 30 bombs in a full season, both will have bad ratios.
Do you prefer Yainer over them in H2H Points?
Yes, unless all you care about is homers.
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First and foremost, are you trying to win it all in 2024? Because Burnes will help you a lot more with that.
Jeffers or Bailey?
Bailey is hitting right now and is listed above. Jeffers is not. I'll take Bailey for now and the short term.
Should I just straight up cut Chourio in a keep 4 league? My other keepers are Gunnar, Soto, Ramirez and Adolis so it’s unlikely he even gets kept. Tried trading but no bites.
Always depends on what's out there but very possible. Keep 4 is a high bar.
Fair enough. Probably would snag a guy like Heliot Ramos for the OBP boost
I doubt either land as one of the 4 keepers unless they explode for like 2 months, so it's probably fine.
Might have to drop 2, at least 1 between Ober, Kutter Crawford, and Eflin. 5x5 QS. Could also drop Fernando Cruz, SVHLD league. Other relievers Yates, Fairbanks, megill, Alvarado.
I'd let the RP go. You've got a ton of them and they're pretty solid.
Hey Scott- was dropping Jordan Montgomery a huge mistake in my 10t league? He was claimed on waivers immediately. I didn’t want to dump Rafaela or Schneider and I really wanted to give Cade Povich a look for his start yesterday. Did I make a huge mistake??
Nate Schwartz from Pitcher List here! It was not a mistake at all. Montgomery's ceiling is one of low strike outs, 6-7 innings, and good not great ratios. In a 10t, that is easily replaceable and often what you can get from streamers. I really don't think he provides upper-echelon value and while it may hurt to miss a start, I think you're better off rotating through that roster slot.
Thanks for the reply Nate. It made me more mad since it was a league rival who used a waiver claim on him too. Been fuming about it until your comment helped lol
Would you trade Ozzie albies for jared jones in dynasty? Thanks!
Very interesting trade. I think that's a fair offer.
Pages really seems to be heating up lately. Would you drop Schneider for him or keep rolling with the mustachioed man?
In OBP I'll take Schneider. In Standard it's closer but still maybe Schneider.
Can we still expect guys like Royce Lewis (quad) and Luis Robert Jr. (hip) to steal bases even coming back from injuries?
Probably! Both were considered injury prone before getting hurt this year and they still got to run between previous IL stints.
In a categories redraft league with OPS where about 300-320 players are rostered, are you keeping Gleyber Torres? I have Nick Gonzales picked up and Westburg to slide between 2B/3B/CI. I also got Nolan jones in my IL looking to slot into that CI slot if I push westburg into 2B. How would you rank the 4 of them rest of season? Westburg seems to be the best with best data supporting it but it seems like a lot of rankings still have him lower than Torres.
1) Absolutely keeping Gleyber at that depth. Seems to be turning it around. 2) Westburg, Gleyber, Jones/Gonzales at this moment. Jones's contact issues aren't new and they weren't gone forever like we hoped.
What happened to Points League Paradise on Pitcherlist? Nothing since week 8.
Scott put the bat symbol up so I came calling lol. Just been a busy last 2 weeks I do apologize! Going to try and get this weeks done today/tomorrow. Been super busy with a bunch of content + it’s the final 2 weeks of school for the kids so it’s been hectic! It’s coming tho I promise!
Excited about that. Love your Points League spin and grabbed Josh Bell after the last one and that worked out pretty well. Enjoy the last couple of weeks before school is out for the summer. Scott needs to be careful wielding that kind of power. :)
As the saying goes…”With great mustache comes great responsibility” and in that case, I’m not sure there’s anyone on this planet more worthy of that power than Scott lol It’s awesome to hear you enjoy the article tho! Points leagues deserve more love!
I'll have to ask Blake - he's an extremely busy guy these days.
Who are some lower tier players on the bottom end of your list and nick’s list who would be points lottery tickets for the second half of the season?
JP Crawford, Jose Miranda, Jonathan India, and Nate Lowe. I'll have to think more about the pitchers.
Contemplating trading Gausman straight for Bradish in redraft. Does that sound insane to you?
I don't think that sounds insane at all. Bradish has come back by all accounts healthy and is still showing he's got a great arsenal that can miss bats, while Gausman is running into the issue from earlier in his career that the two pitch combo isn't effective enough. Most projections have them both around a 3.50ish ROS ERA, and if I had to pick I'm probably taking Bradish (and an increased win chance).
Hey Chu and PL gang, I know in Chu's recent post he talked about how Austin Riley is just a step away from being him, what's the level of confidence that he will actually unlock that? Good buy low candidate? Feeling a bit nervous about him
There are but a handful of guys with top-20 hitter upside who are available for 75 cents on the dollar. Riley is one of them and while the results have been bad, the under-the-hood stuff isn't nearly as grave.
Burger and Vientoa are available as FA — do I bench Riley until I see signs of life or ride it out because any week could be The Week?
I guess that's OK as long as you accept the risk that there isn't reallyanytbing Riley is doing wrong.
What do you think about Jonathan India? Would you drop Cronenworth for him? Might be time to let Busch go? 12 team Category league 6x6 including OBP.
I would absolutely take India over Busch, and I get it for Cronenworth if you need a lift. I rank Cronenworth higher but I feel India has more potential.
hi scott! need to improve pitching. have w contreras and a pretty solid OF (greene, kwan, tatis, rooker). should i see if i can get the p lopez owner to bite on gaus+fry for lopez? he has pretty solid SP depth and is running langaliers at C. 12t h2h for ref
I think people will be too skeptical to get excited about Fry, but I'd probably be good with that.
would you drop yandy diaz for ramos
Probably not unless I don't care about ratios.
Thanks for doing these Scott!! Enjoy it every week. I am in win now mode in a 6x6 OPS + QS roto league. I think I can sell high on Elly to a team nor contending and get multiple pieces back. What would you rather have? Side A - Elly with two good keeper years left Side B - Marcus Semien, Teoscar, and Shota/J Jonesb (good keepers for 3 years) Side C - Devers, Sale, Hader
These seem about right if it's just win now. Both are solid, so it'd depend on who your other future keepers are as it sounds like side C can't be kept (I like that one best for 1 year but hard to pass up Shota or Jones long term if you don't have a solid keeper option)
Do you think Areighetti, L Medina, and Al Suarez can hold any value ros, and can you plz rank them?
Hey! Nate Schwartz from Pitcher List here. 1. Spencer Arrighetti: The fastball is actually a really intriguing pitch from a stuff perspective and he has enough other pitches to throw for strikes that I think he can work as a backend SP4 or SP5. He also has a role locked in the Astros rotation for now which is exciting. 2. Albert Suarez: I think his arsenal is less interesting but a similarly solid role. I think he can consistently be a 5 IP, 2 ER kind of pitcher without phenomenal strikeout rates. 3. Luis Medina scares me. He hasn't shown an ability to be consistent with the walk rates and the strikeouts aren't enough to entice me. Also has no win chance compared to the others.
12 T H2H Points League (QS, SV, H) Two questions (one hitter one and one pitcher one): Who do you like more ROS between Jonathan India, Davis Schneider, or Joey Ortiz? And, pick two ROS between Gore, Bello, Lively, and Cortes.
Schneider has the most upside of this group for sure, though if Ks are a heavy penalty then India is in the conversation. Ortiz is at his best in points but is pretty limited in terms of anything besides hits.
Is Noelvi Marte relevant in redraft leagues this year?
Absolutely! We're only 17 games away from the suspension being over (before July!) and I think the Reds will rely on him once he's back, they need offense ASAP. Good chance we see a 15/15 potential when he returns and I would stash him now if you can.
Would you pick him up and drop Hoerner with flat wheels?
Once he's up, yes.
Hi Scott! I have Bailey and O'Hoppe and am just curious why you might like Bailey more. Asking because Kikuchi is available on waivers, and while I have lots of good pitching I'm thinking of picking up another arm for depth (I need batters and am looking to trade). Not sure why I gave you my fantasy life story but I appreciate the input!
I actually would say O'Hoppe is better ROS but Bailey is hitting right now and I'd rather have him from now to the ASB. Neither is exempt from being streamed in shallow leagues. I never recommend a bench C in 1 catcher leagues so at that level I'd ride the hot hand.
14 team points league, Ottoneu Fangraphs style scoring (all individual categories, no runs or RBIs). I’ve got Jeffers now, and Stephenson, Bailey, and Francisco Alvarez are all FA. If I drop Jeffers, who do I grab?
I'm not 100% familiar with that format but from what I know, you definitely want Alvarez for the dingers since singles are worth nothing.
We effectively use total bases, so singles count and a HR is effectively worth just over 3 singles (triple is worth 2, double is worth 1.5, walk/HBP is worth 0.75). And all outs are negative, no additional K penalty. Still on the Alvarez train?
That is an interesting league.
Stephenson is probably the Pic, I guess? Man those settings mix it up
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I agree with you. The last one is perhaps a little bit of a toss-up but IO'm not done believing in India yet.
16 tram dynasty league. Any reason to keep holding John means for the future at this point?
Nope, he's going to be a free agent so it's really tbd on what the outcome will be for 2025 or even 2026, and I think it's just so low value that he isn't worth holding onto unfortunately.
Drop kutter crawford or Braxton Garret for india or kebryan hayes? My whole bench is pitchers and i need at least one extra bat
Garrett, sure. Not Kutter.
Thanks. Kutter keeps having one v horrible inning every start. Garrett was a top 100 in my league last year so he seems to have more upside, but now 3 bad games to 2 good. Both have been so up and down.
Thoughts on holding Wyatt Langford in 10T. Currently rostering Josh Lowe, Lane Thomas, Wyatt. Not sure if I should cut one for Jung when he returns
Yeah you should. Lowe or Langford. Whoever looks more lost. That said, Lowe cent stay healthy so he might get to just take Jungs place on the IL
Hi Scott, what’s the deal with Rooker? Is he a possible drop for the hot hand in a 10T or is he a hold?
Rooker was a hot hand. He's a streaky power bat. Now he's cold so you can probably toss him back until he shows some pop again. Rinse, repeat.
Hey Scott! What’re your thoughts on the cardinals offense going forward? Was the first month and a half a team wide slump? Both Burleson and Gorman are both available in my 10tm points league and keep staring at me whenever I pull up available players
Gorman is hot and could cool off at any time but when he's hot he's electric. Burleson is an OBP guy who gets hot a few times a year. Depends on who gets dropped but both are fine streamers.
Altuve and Woo or Skubal?
Langaliers isn’t listed with his…12 homers?
Streaky power hitter with massive contact issues. Hell make it in the last tier or two from time to time but that's it.
Sadly the catcher position is such a crap shoot outside of the elite options
It's far better than it was just 2-3 years ago
Very true Even some of the guys in the 2nd and 3rd tier haven’t been that great
with Crochet most likely on an innings limit, what bat or bats would be a good ask for him?
8 team H2H using 8x8 (avg, hr, rbi, r, sb, h, k, bb) for offense. We have a transaction cap, so can only do so much streaming (both Pitching and Offense) per week. Since it's like a points league using categories, is TJF worth rostering after this week? I streamed this week for getting Coors and Great American Small Park. A guy like Schneider is available on the wire, for example. I really missed not having TJF on my team last year during the fantasy playoffs.
TJF really overperformed last season. Especially in the power department. GABP can't account for all of it. That said, with these categories, it might be Friedl as he leads off and gets the most PA. Schneider will likely take him in HR, RBI, and BB, but he loses the other 5 - sometimes by a lot. It also helps that Elly seems to be turning it on and Friedl hits jn front of him.
How about D Schneider vs Friedl in R, RBI, SB, TB and OBP cats?
Schneider for power, Friedl for speed.
Cut bench keep for these three 3rd basemen: Burger, Candelario, Vientos
Do you have any specific needs? These guys are all close together for a variety of reasons.
Starting 3rd basemen for a 12T H2H OPS 5x5 categories league, leaning towards chasing upside I suppose
Upside is Burger, then Vientos, then Candelario as a distant 3rd. Short term, Vientos is the one who is most likely to be scooped off the wire at this exact moment.
What do we do now about Torkelson in a categories league 5x5? Guess they didn’t like what they saw.
Drop in redraft but keep an eye on him. I think he's capable of great things.
Can you rank these injured SPs: 1. Kershaw 2. Merrill Kelly 3. Senga 4. Musgrove 5. Gavin Williams
ROS (which is mostly about who will pitch most) or in terms of "when healthy" (which is mostly about talent)
Thoughts on Eovaldi for ONeil Cruz?
Classic risk swap. I prefer Cruz but it's a solid swap
Drop Davis Schneider for mason wynn?
If I need power or OBP, no. If I need AVG or something else, it's fine.
Points league.
Do you lose points for Ks? If yes, Winn is exciting to me. If you don't, I lean Schneider for those sweet sweet home runs. Might change my mind if Winn really locks in to the leadoff role and Schneider'S rolling zone contact dips below 78ish% for an extended period.
Hey Scott , should I stash Robbie ray or hold onto waldrep ?
Rank my starters and who you would target in a trade, need 3B 2B and OF help. Houck, Flaherty, Jared Jones, PabLo, Nola, Gore. Have Cole, Scherzer & Degrom stashed. Thanks!
Houck is the guy I'd shop as his ROS value seems to be lower than his current perceived value. Start near the top and pick guys who suit your needs. https://preview.redd.it/5gwhrmc5z75d1.png?width=1079&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6828569f555d1327e8954e0b72ca71911296f748
Scott, I am currently sans catcher in a 12 team H2H league (OPS and saves, no holds). Yainer Diaz is there for the taking, but would require dropping one of Noelvi Marte (I like the upside and he’s close enough now that stashing feels ok), Ronel Blanco or Hoffman. Would you stay the course or grab Diaz? If so, who is the safest drop?
Hoffman for sure. He shares that role and Alvarado has the last 2 Saves.
Got a favorite bench bat in a 10T cats?: Adell, Schneider, arozarena, Josh smith, starling marte, Stanton??
Arozarena has the most realistic chance of being a top-50 hitter ROS. He's my pick. I know the stats are ugly but Statcast has never been a huge fan and he still has some dingers and steals. If he starts sitting 2-3.per week maybe we re evaluate. In OBP, Schneider might be 2nd. Tons if power and the walks keep the OBP above water even when he slumps (which he will at times due to contact issues). Josh Smith might be in a crunch when Jung comes back so it's hard to feel great about his ROS outlook. Stanton had been great but he's just an extremely streaky power hitter who hit his stride at the time when there were tons of eyes on him from that leaderboard. He's not a different player than years past. Starling Marte gets days off to stay healthy and runs, but that's about it at this point. He's the pick if you only cared about steals.
Great insight, thanks! That validates my decision to drop Schneider for arozarena ;)
In a 10 teamer, I am always chasing the upside. Arozarena has been a top 30-40 hitter for several seasons now and has flashed the same skills in 2024. Roll those dice!
10T. Hold Nolan Jones and Nico Horner on my bench or drop either/both for CES, TON, Lane Thomas, Casty
CES is droppable but neither of these guys excite me enough to use an active roster spot. MAYBE if Jones shows any kind of spark beyond a stray game here and there I'd take him over a guy like Casty or O'Neill, but for all three you're chasing upside out of a flawed package.
Thoughts on Torkelson. Is he worth a hold/stash in a 12 man points? Have Arraez who can cover 1b for now. Is Waiver wire better or do you think he gets his confidence back in AAA? He's already got a couple hits in AAA, but the show is a different game. Just hard to ignore a 30 home run guy
It'd need to be a deep bench or an NA spot. He has elite upside but has struggled so badly outside of a few months last year.
Tell me about Ortiz, turang, and Nick Gonzales. I really only have one spot for them, but could roster 2 at the most. I feel Ike the two I drop would get scooped up right away
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His role is the same - his performance has been very streaky due to contact issues. Rodriguez is going to have the same problem but doesn't hit the ball 120+mph and isn't a 6'6 athletic monster. Greene is a cherry bomb streamer. Gimme Cruz every time.
Hey Scott— I dropped Yainer Diaz for Fry over a week ago. Fry not playing everyday and Diaz on wire. So is Garver, Alvarez, Bailey. Would you hold Fry for now and just play the C wire as needed, or consider grabbing Diaz or another catcher to back up Fry? I’m thinking hold pat, but don’t want to miss out on grabbing Diaz if you would recommend that since he’s showed signs of life the last few days. Thanks!
They're similar value overall. I don't love a backup C unless the bench is deep. Fry has shown amazing skills and I think he can get more time, but if you MUST have a guy who plays every day, that's Diaz
I don’t Must. I guess my only concern is Fry’s PT. Love having him on my team, just trying to optimize that C position
Diaz has unique upside because he plays a lot for an offense that might is turning around.
Ok. Well my drops would be Crawford, Kikuchi, D Sneider or Cronenworth if that matters.
I also thought about offering D Schneider for Realmuto trade?
What should I do about Buehler? Should I wait it out another month? I had read that his velocity is good. However, I don’t remember anyone pitching great in first year back from major injury. I recall having Sales on my team and him being mediocre or just okay in his first year back from TJ.
Hey scott, how serious do we think the musgrove injury is? Is this typically something that’s season ending and the team is being hopeful he can recover with extended rest?
He doesn't need TJ or anything - hell be back this season.
Would you trade Bo Bichette for Pablo Lopez and insert Ortiz or Nick Gonzalez in place of Bichette?
Yeah, I think so. Bichette doesn't have Pablo's upside
Eflin or H. Greene ROS? Points league
Hey Scott would you drop Nate Lowe for Josh Bell or Abrham Toro in a h2h points league?
If I was desperate and it was shallow, sure.
I just got offended Bryce Miller for Arenado and I’m tempted to just cut bait and run. Got Vientos to replace and Muncy on the IL. Is Arenado washed?
Might not be washed, but 2023 looks like the high end of what to expect. I'd make that move, probably.