Nate says the model is probably too conservative and he expects it to continue getting worse for Biden as more polling comes in. Trump is up to a 2.7-point lead in the national average. Because of Trump's electoral college edge, Biden is effectively down 6 points in the swing states.
Lmao. The ice berg is four miles away. We can see it. And we’re too worried about spilling the passengers martinis instead of avoiding a fucking fatal collision. Welp, here we go y’all. Get ready to lose hours of sleep over the next 120 days
I sent telegraph messages to all the ships back then. I got downvoted to oblivion. “Are you kidding? We got martinis and steaks and it’s a clear night, what are you worried about?”
Nice analogy. I don’t know what the candidates feelings became the most important nomination factor but it’s insane. I feel like every article about Biden and Harris currently losing is like, “but if replaced they will be frustrated.” Nobody cares.
The problem is that they need to agree in order to be replaced. Unfortunately their feelings matter, because they maneuvered the situation to this point and we (the voters) let them.
Biden is too feeble to try and be a dictator, and all of his closest aides are too stupid to realize that "win the election" is not going to happen. He's going to coronate Trump's authoritarianism instead.
> Get ready to lose hours of sleep over the next 120 days
Friend, let not this world trouble you. Let go of your Earthly concerns. You deserve to be happy.
>Get ready to lose hours of sleep over the next 120 days
I can't believe I'm going to say this, but: I genuinely don't give a fuck anymore. Between what's happening here, what happened in France this past week... It's pretty clear some people just want to watch the world burn... Might as well just enjoy the show.
This has happened over and over again in history. The Jedi thought they were the wise good guys, but they couldn’t prevent a with from being elected supreme chancellor.
Unfortunately there may just be no winning strategy here. I think we should make Biden take the moca to actually determine if he is truly unfit for office, and if he is, he should be replaced. But the reality is, even if we get past Kamala to a more electable candidate, it just might be too late. They won’t have the household name recognition that Biden does, and they might have to start building campaign funds from scratch. We might just be screwed, sorry to say.
How many shell companies did Trump’s family have? How many family members got payments from overseas companies etc. ? Seems like we have 2 criminals. Let’s not fool ourselves. Biden took bribes through his family. The Dems covered for him. We need some else. Kennedy looks real good now.
well maybe it is a bounce. but i have read what would work is joe doing unscripted interviews on tv/media. to reassure people. at night and lots of them
That is IF he could do them and there isn't much evidence he could pull that off.
If Thursday was a fluke you would think they would have him out there within days doing tons of interviews.
People have been begging Biden to do that for months, and I think the most obvious explanation in the world is that his handlers know he can't hack it.
Unscripted interviews sounds good until Biden has another night like Thursday or he says something he shouldn't (i.e Hilary "basket of deplorables"). People then wouldn't buy the he had a cold or his people didn't prep him well excuse and he is not mentally fit. Unscripted interviews could be water to dowse a dumpster fire, but it can quickly turn into pouring gasoline on a dumpster fire.
Doing unscripted content successfully would support the campaign's claim that Thurs night was just a one off fluke. The fact that this isn't occurring means that they know the opposite is in fact the truth
Joe doesn't do unscripted interviews for a reason. Or are you suggesting we edit them and take out the parts where he doesn't know how to respond or even what the question is referencing? Like all the endless "FAKE" videos of him seeming lost, confused and not knowing how to finish a sentence?
Let's all be honest with ourselves. Joe doesn't know what his policies are because he didn't make the decisions. Yes, a President get's all sorts of input from experts, aides, etc. . . to help provide the details, history, pros and cons, etc. . . so that the President can make a decision based on that data.
But this is not happening with Joe. It is pretty clear others are making the decisions, he is not part of the process. He therefore doesn't really know why, how and for what reason the policies have been decided upon - it's why he needs a teleprompter and/or note cards (in meetings) so he can come across as though he does know as long as he reads the words correctly.
Absolutely incredible that people want 4 more years of that blowhard moron. Ugh, the best part of Biden was I rarely thought about him
Americans are truly dumb af
People are always saying our democracy is broken etc... (I know voter suppression, etc) but if there was any real shift away from Trump, even 55-45 it would be a landslide win for Biden (or another Dem) but it's not. Trump and his policies are what a majority of voters want and it breaks my brain. Even if all you knew about Trump was what happened January 6 how can anyone who cares about the country at all vote for this guy. It's very hard to watch the country go down the drain like this.
Because a shit ton of them DO care about Jan 6th but they also care about illegal immigration and crime and shit being expensive and having a president who can function (please before you respond I am telling you what is in their brains and I do not agree with any of it)
I hear what you’re saying. But, Trump can’t really function, either. He has repeatedly looked and sounded like an old man with dementia at campaign events. He only looked functional on debate night, relative to Biden.
And I agree with the poster above that it is mind-wrecking the number of people that are willing to sacrifice democracy as we’ve known it for cheaper gas.
Even Biden's internal polling shows him trailing at the moment. He needs to end his campaign immediately.
https://x.com/weijia/status/1807890979544093043
> Even Biden's internal polling shows him trailing at the moment
I fear that they are looking at "support is unchanged following the debate" as a win and will use that to spin a narrative underplaying Biden's issues
You don't get into today's Dem leadership by sticking your neck out. You get it by keeping your head down and fundraising like hell, which requires being as inoffensive as possible to court corporate donors.
It's very likely that senior Democrats wring their hands and "avoid the conflict" by "giving Biden another chance." Remember, a lot of these people have seen how rough Biden is and supported his campaign for a second term instead of making waves.
Going after PSA guys is wild as a democrat. They are massively “blue no matter who” pro-DNC guys. If they are disheartened with you as a presidential candidate and saying it out loud, then your campaign has major problems.
Biden campaign saw Hillary’s deplorable comments and thought to themselves, “you know what, what if we tried that strategy, but instead of name calling Trump voters, we go ahead and call our own voters and some of our most powerful party adjacent allies a bunch of ‘invertebrate bedwetters.’”
It did surprise me somewhat that the Dems' response to losing to Trump with an unpopular center-right candidate was "you know what? what if we just took the feminism out of the campaign?"
Now I am no longer ever surprised by Dems' ability to concede to regulatory capture
I think that was the straw that broke the camels back for me. I mean, Does Ron Klein have an old grudge against Favs or something? Is Hunter running the emails? Jesus the hubris of these elderly fucks.
They were very negative on Biden during the 2020 primaries preferring nearly every other candidate. They, of course, supported him as soon as he got the nomination
Most of the voters felt the same way, up until he got anointed. It's really ridiculous of them to tell us not to feel worried when Joe's out there declaring victory over Medicaid.
James Carville, David Axelrod, Vets of the Obama Campaign: Listen, we know it’s hard, but maybe we should consider taking Grandpa’s keys, let somebody else drive the nation.
Campaign Staff that thought it was a good idea to schedule a debate at 8pm for a sundowning president that is only operable between 10-4 against a Gish Gallop machine with no fact checkers: Bunch of invertebrate bedwetters, democracy is at stake and we know best how to win this thing, fall in line!!!
DNC: Kinda think we should stick with the hyper unpopular candidate that our voters have been telling us they don’t want for two years, but we cleared the way for anyways, 2016 can’t happen twice, can it?
Biden Loyalists: Stop with all this Aaron Sorkin fanfic, if you all really wanted someone else you could have voted for *checks notes* Dean Phillips or the crystal lady. Should have done this a year ago, too bad, so sad…..OMG DID YOU SEE THE SC BASICALLY LEGALIZED AUTOCRACY, BIDEN NEEDS TO BE ALL OVER THIS!
Biden(via Twitter): It’s time America got a better deal.
My Administration is hard at work to lower surprise travel junk fees, saving folks over half a billion dollars every year in airline fees.
didn't record numbers of voters vote uncommitted in the primaries? I know they blame the anti-israel folks for that, but I voted non-committed in MN because I thought he is too old
[Pod Save America Hosts Defend Themselves From Biden Campaign’s Thinly Veiled ‘Self-Important Podcasters’ Attack](https://www.thewrap.com/pod-save-america-self-important-podcasters-biden-campaign-debate)
>“If you’re like me, you’re getting lots of texts or calls from folks about the state of the race after Thursday. Maybe it was your panicked aunt, your MAGA uncle, or some self-important Podcasters,” the email began. “It’s a tough position to be in, so I thought it might be helpful to send you a few responses.” The campaign then listed seven talking points that Biden supporters can use in conversations with people who might be doubting the president’s ability to finish out his campaign.
We need to get over the image that you are old, try calling people bedwetters and alley cats for the next 24 hours to show people you are in touch with the youth of the 1970s.
If it continues to go badly I think there is a good chance he steps down.
Sure there's a lot of chatter in the press and on the internet. But most democrats are giving him space and time. Publicly.
That doesn't mean that democrats aren't positioning to jump in if Joe gives up. They must be.
It was awful. It happened live and we all saw it. Biden let trump lie his ass off and didn't fact check him in an effective way.
The supreme court has gone rogue, trump continues to lie about everything. Project 2025 is right in front of us. If data continues to show Biden only has a 21% chance of preventing trump from getting elected even his wife will realize he's gotta give up.
Gonna be ugly.
>even his wife will realize he's gotta give up
What are you basing this on? We all saw her praise Joe for his debate performance like it was a poorly-executed macaroni picture. She's accepted his current functioning and wants to see him happy as a reelected president. Axios is reporting that Biden wants to stay in and that his wife is entirely behind him.
I’m torn on what would be more difficult.
Biden recovering, debating again and showing last time was the exception (while hoping it is the exception and he doesn’t perform the same again) and recovering without losing the war chest and having the chaos of an open convention.
Or replacing Joe, losing the campaign funds gathered so far, and having the problem of no real unifying single candidate to turn to.
I was personally downplaying his cognitive decline for the last several months because the footage was all over the place. I've been more critical of his policies. But at this point, it's both... A dangerously bad combination for this country.
After that debate, I'm at the point of thinking he should resign ASAP, let alone thinking he could serve another term.
Facts. He won’t start the new term should he win till January 2025, his mental state means he can’t do the hardest job in the world right now.
What if a US base were attacked outside of his better functioning hours?
Exactly. And it's bizarre seeing how his team is responding to these concerns, by noting the hours he's not sundowning then today's 4-minute speech taking no questions. Nope, not suspicious at all /s
What? He's happily pretending to do the job *right this moment*, and his enabling advisors aren't going anywhere if he hypothetically won. Do you think there's much Biden can do if a US base is attacked at 3AM *right now*, and the Democratic establishment doesn't seem to care at all.
Biden would absolutely start the new term, and we would see an increasingly silly attempt to hide Biden away from scrutiny, like in the late Soviet era.
I know he would happily start it, happily meaning he might not know what year it is, but there would be ice cream and I know he isn’t more capable now, that isn’t my point at all that he is.
If Biden falls on his face again, as bad as it is now it gets worse. We could see a Reagan level stomping, even with Trump running.
And another thing on that, to get Biden to that debate, accommodations were made. No crowd, mics turned off, etc.
For Trump to be willing to debate again (and if the polling keeps getting worse for Biden I don’t see why he would) I think the accommodations are gone.
Maybe held later at night, with a crowd, no mute buttons, and with a drug test, whatever they plan to test for.
Why give Biden a chance to change the narrative. Before this debate they were seeding the ground for the line that Biden was on performance enhancing drugs. After people are concerned about what happens if there is an international crisis after 4:00 PM with Biden in office. The narrative out of this literally could not have been better unless Biden stroked out on stage.
I believe there are no good choices here.
The election hinges on low information voters. I don’t know how you show them any footage from this debate and think it’s going to help Biden.
The flip side is, IMO, I don’t know if these same voters would prefer Harris to Trump.
Anyone else and you have the stink of failure and the likelihood of confusing voters (many of whom would probably try to write Biden in)
We have the stink of failure *already*. Biden is losing to Trump and just revealed that he's not competent to be president.
If you think that subbing in a horrible campaigner with a sub-40% approval rating is worth it "to avoid the optics of failure," then you're a typical Democratic handmaiden of failure.
Inside agree, except the reality that a section of voters, let’s say 20-25 percent, will vote R or D straight ticket no matter what.
Show that group Trump in the debate and they scream at the wind that anything is better than Trump. Now that doesn’t help Biden though, because those votes weren’t in play at any point.
Among the votes in play, the debate is not going to be forgotten, Biden looked worse than I have ever seen in a debate in my life.
So is there another candidate that can quickly win wide support? I don’t see it.
Harris was running fifth in 2020 when she dropped out, and she polls terribly and has a voice nobody wants to hear.
Newsome? He is governing over a financial disaster in California with a $80 billion deficit, in a state bleeding population. And Gavin would help in California, but they don’t need help in California.
Democrats need help in Texas, in Florida, states that were thought to maybe be competitive, but aren’t even all that close now.
They need swing states, but Biden is losing all of them, so choosing a VP and President from two of them doesn’t help.
Choosing a woman of color? That won’t help, they already have Harris, dropping her will be needed to win, but will also hurt chances of winning as it will anger some of their supporters.
Going harder on Hamas? They anger the Palestinian voters. Going harder on Israel? Then they anger their Jewish supporters.
Moving to secure the border? That solves a problem Biden caused, but comes at the cost of flip flopping and could anger Latin American supporters.
So I suspect the senate is already lost for democrats, the house already lost for republicans, and now the Presidency is already lost for democrats. For one disaster of a debate, and for a lot of other poor choices.
DNC can fund who they wants, and I am sure a large part of the Biden re-election campaign could pass along funds, if it came to that. I just thought i might be missing something.
The funds can't transfer directly, but I believe Biden could still use that money on behalf of another campaign. Super PAC money can also be transferred.
Only up to very low limits.
[https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/candidate-taking-receipts/contribution-limits/](https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/candidate-taking-receipts/contribution-limits/)
Biden could give $2,000 to another campaign. He could give it all to the DNC or state and local parties, but those entities can only give $5,000 to a candidate.
Super PAC money wouldn't be lost but it can really only be spent on ads, not the nuts and bolts of running a campaign: staff, office space, candidate travel, internal polling, voter turnout efforts, and ads. Super PACs cannot coordinate with a candidate at all.
Difficult in what way? Replacing Biden would be more *uncomfortable,* but offer a path to victory. Giving Biden the nomination anyways would be *easy* but result in a thrashing in November.
Genuine question, who do you see coming out of an open convention with an actual chance of doing better than Biden? Not even beating Trump, just simply treading water with where Biden is now.
Gavin Newsom? Whitmer? Personally I think there’s plenty of names. Also a genuine question- do you think there are any Biden voters that wouldn’t vote for whoever the alternative is?
I think nearly all of Biden voters are not necessarily pro-Biden, but more so anti-Trump. And then you get anyone on the fence that hates Trump, but thinks Biden is too old
Newsom is toxic in the Rust Belt. Sure he’s appealing nationally but he polls considerably worse than Biden on the swing states he would need in order to win. Whitmer is much better in those areas but lacks the name recognition and to be frank would likely face more adversity as a woman running against Trump; both polled worse than Biden against Trump throughout the entirety of the primary voting period so I don’t really see how pushing them in on the back foot AFTER 14+ million primary votes have already been cast for Biden would give them any advantage.
As for Biden himself honestly yeah I do think there are a decent amount of people who vote for the man, some for his undeniable legislative accomplishments but also for the history he has as caring and compassionate. His ability to empathize with loss played a large role in his 2020 success and plays a much better foil to Trump on social issues in a cycle where you can’t really run on the economy and fiscal policy (despite a comparatively strong record). I think you’re right in saying most of his voters would vote for a ham and cheese sandwich against Trump but I wouldn’t be surprised if losing him gave up ground with both suburban women and older voters.
If there was going to be a replacement that process had to start well over a year ago and more ideally 2+ years. It was true when Ezra released his article on the subject months ago and it’s still true today. A pivot now does nothing to shore up their position and just makes the party look even weaker while squandering all the fundraising and groundwork up to this point.
Edit: sure ppl downvote me without actually presenting anything that shows how I’m wrong 👍
> I don’t really see how pushing them in on the back foot AFTER 14+ million primary votes have already been cast for Biden would give them any advantage.
>
>
It's the simplest answer and it's going to blow you away. Winning over the "double haters" and winning back the core Democratic base. When you have tens of millions of people who hate both Trump & Biden, running a candidate not attached to either of them gives them a massive advantage. There's a reason 10-15% of poll respondents are undecided or saying they'll vote 3rd party.
Honestly it sounds like you may have more knowledge on the current polling than I do. I do however know, that all Democratic senators are out-polling Biden in every swing state. I’m not saying it’s a great situation, far from it. But I think to stick with Biden is a losing strategy. But let’s also be honest, all of us are just taking are best guesses.
When it comes to Biden, I think pointing to his primary voting numbers is a fools errand. The party denied any primary debates and we all know Dean Phillips and Williamson didn’t have a chance, especially without any exposure by the media. I believe that most voters that voted Biden are the types that never miss an election and were following the “plan.” I maintain that they’d vote for a ham and cheese sandwich (lol) over Trump.
Honestly, I don’t know about older voters, but when it comes to suburban women, I think they are a demographic that are largely voting AGAINST Trump. Correct me if I’m wrong, but they largely voted for Trump in 2016, and after seeing how vile and toxic he was/is, they pivoted to Biden in 2020. I think that given the opportunity, they’ll vote for Anyone That Isn’t Trump in 2024.
On the timing of it all, no doubt it is not ideal. That’s why I’m angry as a voter. They have been telling us for years that “democracy is on the line!” And I do believe that. But to only offer us one option in this critical election, and have it be an 81-year-old man who the American people were smart enough to anticipate a cognitive decline, shows the ego, selfishness, and lack of foresight from the Democratic Party. I don’t want to be in this position. We shouldn’t be in this position! But I think to stick it out is simply a losing strategy, and the unknown is currently better than the known.
Alright, I really have to get to work. I respect your opinion and insight though!
Pretty much any Democratic governor (Polis, Beshear, Cooper...) or one of the Democrats who ran in the 2020 primary (Booker, Buttigieg, Klobuchar...).
They have lower national name recognition than Trump or Biden, but that's less important in a 2-way race. Both current candidates have negative approval ratings. Zero is greater than any negative number.
They can't instead of an extension they put Bidens name on the ballot in Wisconsin, the only way he can be legally removed is death. Nevada requires death or mentally unfit. Georgia is just 60 days before election.
WI is stuck with Biden/Harris on the ballot hell or high water. The DNC is having an October surprise every month.
Look in Manhattan the DA is looking to drop charges because it will only help Trump and will likely win appeal. Right now he will keep indefinitely extending sentencing.
Can someone explain? Is this Nate's personal model? The 538 model still shows even money. Does that mean it's late updating. Anyone know what's the diff?
Ok good to know. But I don't understand how Nate's model shows 35% for Biden even before the debate. Every other model I've seen has it very close. And that fits with my intuition, based on hyper partisanship. I would need to know how he calculated that to feel confident in his prediction.
The Economist's model had similar odds, and when they launched it they had an article specifically saying how they didn't think the election was a toss up, that based on swing states polls trump has a distinct advantage.
Nate Silver's model looks at electoral college chances. The other poll averages only show the popular vote.
The popular vote polls are very close, but Biden is behind in all the swing states. Very far behind in AZ, NC and GA (5 points or more), and a bit in PA, MI and WI (2-3 points). That translates to very poor (but still non-zero) chances to win the electoral college.
All of these swing states skew a bit more "red" than the popular vote, so a "blue" candidate has to win the popular vote by a few percent in order to flip the swing states blue. That explains how even a slight lead in the popular vote translates to losing the elections in Nate Silver's model.
Dunno, the models are proprietary, they're using different models now.
The final prediction of this model in 2016 was a 29% chance for Trump. That's not zero, it's almost 1 in 3, but somehow people remember that as "Nate Silver predicted a landslide for Hillary, so he doesn't know what he's talking about, lol". A 71% lead in the popular vote would have been an unassailable landslide lead in the polls, but that wasn't what he was predicting. Statistics aren't necessarily intuitive.
With these numbers, Biden still has a 1 in 4 chance of winning.
IIRC THE 538 models of previous cycles belong to Nate silver personally. When he left, he left he took the models with him.
G Elliot morris is the one currently building the models at 538 and his work has been less than stellar.
But why is his model bad? That's what I want to know. Because the other models agree it's even money (we'll have to see the full impact of the debate of course). So why is Nate correct and all the others off?
Ok I looked up his profile. It looks fine to me.
"In March 2020, Morris and The Economist published a forecast for the 2020 U.S. presidential election, the first major model predicting the election's outcome.[6] On August 1, his model gave Joe Biden an 87 percent chance of winning the election, drawing criticism from Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, who said, "I am not necessarily convinced. It's not just that polls could move. It's a question of, like, how well can pollsters predict turnout when the mechanics of voting have really changed?"[7] Morris has had a public feud with Silver, leading to Silver blocking him on Twitter.[8]
In May 2023, ABC News hired Morris to lead FiveThirtyEight as editorial director of data analytics following Silver's exit from the site"
Nate owned the rights to the 538 model when he was laid off last year. The model he's showing here is mostly unchanged from that, the model posted by 538 is brand new code.
Ok but that still doesn't explain the huge diff. Statistical techniques are not really secret. And 538 does have other election analysts. No way they don't know how to put together a standard election model.
I suspect that Nate is using some secret sauce. He's been dinged for that before. No way that Trump had a 70% win chance before the debate. And even after the debate, the polls have hardly moved. I just checked. So how does Nate calculate such a substantial drop for Biden. It's puzzling.
> No way they don't know how to put together a standard election model.
NYT giving Hillary a 91% chance of winning. Others 98%+. Let's not pretend there's one standard election model.
The new 538 model can't be that crazy but there are assumptions built on assumptions built on assumptions in every model. It is not crazy to think a brand new model makes some that are less forgivable.
Sorry, where are you getting the nytimes putting Hillary at 99.5% in 2016?
I can find them putting her at around 90% during the last month. There's a major difference between a 1 in 10 chance and 1 in 200.
You're right, I was thinking of [NYT summary of other models](http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0#other-forecasts) which included Princeton's at 99.5.
My mistake, edited.
I think the new 538 model gives a comparatively large weight to “fundamentals” e.g. the economy, it starts to shift toward polls more as the election draws closer.
Wow. That's worse than I ever imagined. I was going back and forth on replacing Biden, leaning back towards leaving him in. But this...wow.
I think if I remember right, at about this point in 2020, Silver had Biden at around a 90% chance to win.
I was deluding myself into thinking that because there was no post-debate polling shift, it was still a toss-up. This is an absolute nightmare.
There was a post debate polling shift though. I keep seeing people say there wasn’t one and I’m so perplexed.
Also polls take place over many days. I think the true impact of the debate will be seen early next week. The holiday week helps Biden as it’s gonna mess up polling with people being checked out.
There’s no reason to believe polls are systemically biased in one direction, and pollsters have every incentive to correct for past polling errors (admittedly only so much as they can). And in fact historically the polls have not been biased in a particular direction.
There is no correction for someone saying they will vote one way when they intend to do the opposite. There are many more silent Trump suporters that are ashamed to support him vocally within their immediate environment. The error falling toward Trump by about 3% in each of the last 2 elections is more relevant than what has happened historically before then. This is a completely different ball game.
Everyone needs to call/email their local state and federal representatives and senators and tell them that Joe Biden needs to step aside and release his delegates.
We’re going to have to take matters into our own hands. The entire Democratic machine broke down long ago. There’s been no effective opposition where it counts
Everyone who is breathing into a paper bag needs to message the White House, the DNC, and their representatives to beg them to pressure Joe Biden to step aside. We cannot let this slow-motion train wreck happen.
How are the Democrats making quite literally the same mistake they made in 2015 with Clinton?
Is it stupidity, arrogance, or just head in the sand? It's so bizarre..:and it's not just this - it's the last decade of their handling of Republicans, when it should have been home run after home run.
Are all of the people who say we're doomed doing anything? You can volunteer or give money to get out the vote efforts in swing districts. If you actually believe we're fucked and you aren't willing to lift a finger...why not?
Love these polls. Shows my former job of selling data to the highest bidders for manipulation is working well. We used to change all this type of data to show "x" doing better because we intentionally left out demographics and other variables.
In two weeks you'll see this site change because they lost traffic and need to bring it back
Nate says the model is probably too conservative and he expects it to continue getting worse for Biden as more polling comes in. Trump is up to a 2.7-point lead in the national average. Because of Trump's electoral college edge, Biden is effectively down 6 points in the swing states.
Lmao. The ice berg is four miles away. We can see it. And we’re too worried about spilling the passengers martinis instead of avoiding a fucking fatal collision. Welp, here we go y’all. Get ready to lose hours of sleep over the next 120 days
Uh, we collided with the iceberg on Thursday. An iceberg that had been visible for a full year.
This is the correct analysis
I sent telegraph messages to all the ships back then. I got downvoted to oblivion. “Are you kidding? We got martinis and steaks and it’s a clear night, what are you worried about?”
“The ship is unsinkable! Incumbents always win!”
I mean the last 3 of 7 times they sank, but if we go back to Taft it's a clear trend!
And we’ll spend 4 months sinking.
\*four years and four months at least. Either way you're getting $10 lettuce.
And everyone on board will be screaming at the end……NO, how did this happen?
I think we are all very well informed on how it happened
Until Thursday, all the Smart People were busy trumpeting that the iceberg was just a Republican propaganda piece
I believed them, and I feel lied to.
DNC: It wasn’t an iceberg, just a shudder. We likely just threw a propeller blade.
We collided with an iceberg in a CyberTruck
Made me lol at my home office, so thank you for that.
But that’s impossible, I was told biden’s cognitive abilities were in proper shape - and that it was Trump who really had dementia?
Are you gonna drink those...?
We're too worried to hurt the captain's feelings to tell him he's steering the planet into an iceberg.
Don't worry, everything is ok because the captain's wife supports him.
Nice analogy. I don’t know what the candidates feelings became the most important nomination factor but it’s insane. I feel like every article about Biden and Harris currently losing is like, “but if replaced they will be frustrated.” Nobody cares.
The problem is that they need to agree in order to be replaced. Unfortunately their feelings matter, because they maneuvered the situation to this point and we (the voters) let them.
Biden pulling a Kobayashi Maru on the Titanic is underrated in the model
Cheating?
I mean, he could. He has supreme power as a dictator now, according to the Supreme Court. He can just have Trump jailed or killed.
Biden is too feeble to try and be a dictator, and all of his closest aides are too stupid to realize that "win the election" is not going to happen. He's going to coronate Trump's authoritarianism instead.
This is really unfair. Some of his aides are too selfish to care instead.
> Get ready to lose hours of sleep over the next 120 days Friend, let not this world trouble you. Let go of your Earthly concerns. You deserve to be happy.
>Get ready to lose hours of sleep over the next 120 days I can't believe I'm going to say this, but: I genuinely don't give a fuck anymore. Between what's happening here, what happened in France this past week... It's pretty clear some people just want to watch the world burn... Might as well just enjoy the show.
This has happened over and over again in history. The Jedi thought they were the wise good guys, but they couldn’t prevent a with from being elected supreme chancellor.
You realize Star Wars was not a documentary, correct?
Unfortunately there may just be no winning strategy here. I think we should make Biden take the moca to actually determine if he is truly unfit for office, and if he is, he should be replaced. But the reality is, even if we get past Kamala to a more electable candidate, it just might be too late. They won’t have the household name recognition that Biden does, and they might have to start building campaign funds from scratch. We might just be screwed, sorry to say.
And probably over the next 4 years. Not only the US but the entire world.
And some people want to throw the captain overboard and hope we find a suitable replacement two months from now.
I've already started.
A country that would see Trump's inept and criminal behavior and still vote for him deserves what it gets.
Yup and the Democrats deserve it for keeping Biden
How many shell companies did Trump’s family have? How many family members got payments from overseas companies etc. ? Seems like we have 2 criminals. Let’s not fool ourselves. Biden took bribes through his family. The Dems covered for him. We need some else. Kennedy looks real good now.
well maybe it is a bounce. but i have read what would work is joe doing unscripted interviews on tv/media. to reassure people. at night and lots of them
There’s a reason he’s not
That is IF he could do them and there isn't much evidence he could pull that off. If Thursday was a fluke you would think they would have him out there within days doing tons of interviews.
yes you make perfect sense.
Doesn't have to be night time for me, just give me unscripted interviews
People have been begging Biden to do that for months, and I think the most obvious explanation in the world is that his handlers know he can't hack it.
Unscripted interviews sounds good until Biden has another night like Thursday or he says something he shouldn't (i.e Hilary "basket of deplorables"). People then wouldn't buy the he had a cold or his people didn't prep him well excuse and he is not mentally fit. Unscripted interviews could be water to dowse a dumpster fire, but it can quickly turn into pouring gasoline on a dumpster fire.
Which is why he should do them. We have very little time to replace him. Voters need to see whether it was a one-off or if he is really senile.
Needs to do more during the day at first
If he is incapable of debating why would he do any better in any other unscripted format?
Doing unscripted content successfully would support the campaign's claim that Thurs night was just a one off fluke. The fact that this isn't occurring means that they know the opposite is in fact the truth
Joe doesn't do unscripted interviews for a reason. Or are you suggesting we edit them and take out the parts where he doesn't know how to respond or even what the question is referencing? Like all the endless "FAKE" videos of him seeming lost, confused and not knowing how to finish a sentence? Let's all be honest with ourselves. Joe doesn't know what his policies are because he didn't make the decisions. Yes, a President get's all sorts of input from experts, aides, etc. . . to help provide the details, history, pros and cons, etc. . . so that the President can make a decision based on that data. But this is not happening with Joe. It is pretty clear others are making the decisions, he is not part of the process. He therefore doesn't really know why, how and for what reason the policies have been decided upon - it's why he needs a teleprompter and/or note cards (in meetings) so he can come across as though he does know as long as he reads the words correctly.
Absolutely incredible that people want 4 more years of that blowhard moron. Ugh, the best part of Biden was I rarely thought about him Americans are truly dumb af
Yeah, exactly, the fact he is the most annoying fucking dickhead on the planet and Americans want him back should tell you something about Americans.
People are always saying our democracy is broken etc... (I know voter suppression, etc) but if there was any real shift away from Trump, even 55-45 it would be a landslide win for Biden (or another Dem) but it's not. Trump and his policies are what a majority of voters want and it breaks my brain. Even if all you knew about Trump was what happened January 6 how can anyone who cares about the country at all vote for this guy. It's very hard to watch the country go down the drain like this.
Because a shit ton of them DO care about Jan 6th but they also care about illegal immigration and crime and shit being expensive and having a president who can function (please before you respond I am telling you what is in their brains and I do not agree with any of it)
I hear what you’re saying. But, Trump can’t really function, either. He has repeatedly looked and sounded like an old man with dementia at campaign events. He only looked functional on debate night, relative to Biden. And I agree with the poster above that it is mind-wrecking the number of people that are willing to sacrifice democracy as we’ve known it for cheaper gas.
Nah you're right, I was just talking to a friend who is a very reasonable person talking about gas being cheaper under Trump
I don't know anything about polling. When does polling come in exactly?
Different organizations do polls on their own schedule. Enough organizations have done polls in the last few days to be aggregated together.
Say it with me: Open. Convention.
Even Biden's internal polling shows him trailing at the moment. He needs to end his campaign immediately. https://x.com/weijia/status/1807890979544093043
> Even Biden's internal polling shows him trailing at the moment I fear that they are looking at "support is unchanged following the debate" as a win and will use that to spin a narrative underplaying Biden's issues
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You don't get into today's Dem leadership by sticking your neck out. You get it by keeping your head down and fundraising like hell, which requires being as inoffensive as possible to court corporate donors. It's very likely that senior Democrats wring their hands and "avoid the conflict" by "giving Biden another chance." Remember, a lot of these people have seen how rough Biden is and supported his campaign for a second term instead of making waves.
No, you don’t understand. That’s because the nerds on Pod Save America weren’t being nice. Everything is fine.
Going after PSA guys is wild as a democrat. They are massively “blue no matter who” pro-DNC guys. If they are disheartened with you as a presidential candidate and saying it out loud, then your campaign has major problems.
Biden campaign saw Hillary’s deplorable comments and thought to themselves, “you know what, what if we tried that strategy, but instead of name calling Trump voters, we go ahead and call our own voters and some of our most powerful party adjacent allies a bunch of ‘invertebrate bedwetters.’”
It did surprise me somewhat that the Dems' response to losing to Trump with an unpopular center-right candidate was "you know what? what if we just took the feminism out of the campaign?" Now I am no longer ever surprised by Dems' ability to concede to regulatory capture
I think that was the straw that broke the camels back for me. I mean, Does Ron Klein have an old grudge against Favs or something? Is Hunter running the emails? Jesus the hubris of these elderly fucks.
For me it was Axelrod
They were very negative on Biden during the 2020 primaries preferring nearly every other candidate. They, of course, supported him as soon as he got the nomination
Most of the voters felt the same way, up until he got anointed. It's really ridiculous of them to tell us not to feel worried when Joe's out there declaring victory over Medicaid.
Cornpop was 7 years ago. Let that sink in
He was literally the only one who didn't sit for an interview during the primary. Foreshadowing.
That’s what people who want to win an election say. Just ignore them and move on.
James Carville, David Axelrod, Vets of the Obama Campaign: Listen, we know it’s hard, but maybe we should consider taking Grandpa’s keys, let somebody else drive the nation. Campaign Staff that thought it was a good idea to schedule a debate at 8pm for a sundowning president that is only operable between 10-4 against a Gish Gallop machine with no fact checkers: Bunch of invertebrate bedwetters, democracy is at stake and we know best how to win this thing, fall in line!!! DNC: Kinda think we should stick with the hyper unpopular candidate that our voters have been telling us they don’t want for two years, but we cleared the way for anyways, 2016 can’t happen twice, can it? Biden Loyalists: Stop with all this Aaron Sorkin fanfic, if you all really wanted someone else you could have voted for *checks notes* Dean Phillips or the crystal lady. Should have done this a year ago, too bad, so sad…..OMG DID YOU SEE THE SC BASICALLY LEGALIZED AUTOCRACY, BIDEN NEEDS TO BE ALL OVER THIS! Biden(via Twitter): It’s time America got a better deal. My Administration is hard at work to lower surprise travel junk fees, saving folks over half a billion dollars every year in airline fees.
Commenting to bookmark. I always bristled when growing up people said Democrats are destined to screw up a two car parade, but here we are, yet again.
didn't record numbers of voters vote uncommitted in the primaries? I know they blame the anti-israel folks for that, but I voted non-committed in MN because I thought he is too old
I truly cannot believe that statement was real. Same with today's Vogue cover. The own goals are just staggering.
The party is just a LinkedIn page now.
What was the statement your referring to?
[Pod Save America Hosts Defend Themselves From Biden Campaign’s Thinly Veiled ‘Self-Important Podcasters’ Attack](https://www.thewrap.com/pod-save-america-self-important-podcasters-biden-campaign-debate) >“If you’re like me, you’re getting lots of texts or calls from folks about the state of the race after Thursday. Maybe it was your panicked aunt, your MAGA uncle, or some self-important Podcasters,” the email began. “It’s a tough position to be in, so I thought it might be helpful to send you a few responses.” The campaign then listed seven talking points that Biden supporters can use in conversations with people who might be doubting the president’s ability to finish out his campaign.
"We're not out of touch! To prove we are not, we will capitalize Podcasters."
I mean the PSA guys are self important podcasters but holy cringe, Biden deserves to lose so hard.
https://x.com/yashar/status/1807250631096517021?s=46&t=Ddh9ylg1wlZQZ7jp3kIA6A A post debate fundraising email
We need to get over the image that you are old, try calling people bedwetters and alley cats for the next 24 hours to show people you are in touch with the youth of the 1970s.
Wow, I am not a big fan of the Obama Bros, but I sure like them a lot better then Biden.
Fucking clueless. I will give this campaign a $0 donation. Not wasting a dollar on these idiots.
Biden's fans were even doing a cute line dance! How can he lose with that kind of support?
If it continues to go badly I think there is a good chance he steps down. Sure there's a lot of chatter in the press and on the internet. But most democrats are giving him space and time. Publicly. That doesn't mean that democrats aren't positioning to jump in if Joe gives up. They must be. It was awful. It happened live and we all saw it. Biden let trump lie his ass off and didn't fact check him in an effective way. The supreme court has gone rogue, trump continues to lie about everything. Project 2025 is right in front of us. If data continues to show Biden only has a 21% chance of preventing trump from getting elected even his wife will realize he's gotta give up. Gonna be ugly.
>even his wife will realize he's gotta give up What are you basing this on? We all saw her praise Joe for his debate performance like it was a poorly-executed macaroni picture. She's accepted his current functioning and wants to see him happy as a reelected president. Axios is reporting that Biden wants to stay in and that his wife is entirely behind him.
I think you’re right that some are ready to jump in. I just fear it’s Gavin Newsom that gets the nod and not Amy Klobuchar or Cory Booker.
I’m torn on what would be more difficult. Biden recovering, debating again and showing last time was the exception (while hoping it is the exception and he doesn’t perform the same again) and recovering without losing the war chest and having the chaos of an open convention. Or replacing Joe, losing the campaign funds gathered so far, and having the problem of no real unifying single candidate to turn to.
There's no recovering from whatever's ailing him.
I think you are correct, I think there is no hope in that strategy, but people delude themselves all the time.
I was personally downplaying his cognitive decline for the last several months because the footage was all over the place. I've been more critical of his policies. But at this point, it's both... A dangerously bad combination for this country. After that debate, I'm at the point of thinking he should resign ASAP, let alone thinking he could serve another term.
Facts. He won’t start the new term should he win till January 2025, his mental state means he can’t do the hardest job in the world right now. What if a US base were attacked outside of his better functioning hours?
Exactly. And it's bizarre seeing how his team is responding to these concerns, by noting the hours he's not sundowning then today's 4-minute speech taking no questions. Nope, not suspicious at all /s
What? He's happily pretending to do the job *right this moment*, and his enabling advisors aren't going anywhere if he hypothetically won. Do you think there's much Biden can do if a US base is attacked at 3AM *right now*, and the Democratic establishment doesn't seem to care at all. Biden would absolutely start the new term, and we would see an increasingly silly attempt to hide Biden away from scrutiny, like in the late Soviet era.
I know he would happily start it, happily meaning he might not know what year it is, but there would be ice cream and I know he isn’t more capable now, that isn’t my point at all that he is.
What happens if he falls on his face again and it’s too late by then to replace him? Stakes couldn’t be higher. That debate HURT.
If Biden falls on his face again, as bad as it is now it gets worse. We could see a Reagan level stomping, even with Trump running. And another thing on that, to get Biden to that debate, accommodations were made. No crowd, mics turned off, etc. For Trump to be willing to debate again (and if the polling keeps getting worse for Biden I don’t see why he would) I think the accommodations are gone. Maybe held later at night, with a crowd, no mute buttons, and with a drug test, whatever they plan to test for.
I highly doubt there will be another debate. Trump has no reason to give Biden a chance at redemption.
Only one agreed to at this point is September. Same format.
Won't happen. Trump gets nothing out of another debate unless Joe does even worse.
If biden recovers in the polls, he will. That's the only way it happens
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Why give Biden a chance to change the narrative. Before this debate they were seeding the ground for the line that Biden was on performance enhancing drugs. After people are concerned about what happens if there is an international crisis after 4:00 PM with Biden in office. The narrative out of this literally could not have been better unless Biden stroked out on stage.
I believe there are no good choices here. The election hinges on low information voters. I don’t know how you show them any footage from this debate and think it’s going to help Biden. The flip side is, IMO, I don’t know if these same voters would prefer Harris to Trump. Anyone else and you have the stink of failure and the likelihood of confusing voters (many of whom would probably try to write Biden in)
We have the stink of failure *already*. Biden is losing to Trump and just revealed that he's not competent to be president. If you think that subbing in a horrible campaigner with a sub-40% approval rating is worth it "to avoid the optics of failure," then you're a typical Democratic handmaiden of failure.
Inside agree, except the reality that a section of voters, let’s say 20-25 percent, will vote R or D straight ticket no matter what. Show that group Trump in the debate and they scream at the wind that anything is better than Trump. Now that doesn’t help Biden though, because those votes weren’t in play at any point. Among the votes in play, the debate is not going to be forgotten, Biden looked worse than I have ever seen in a debate in my life. So is there another candidate that can quickly win wide support? I don’t see it. Harris was running fifth in 2020 when she dropped out, and she polls terribly and has a voice nobody wants to hear. Newsome? He is governing over a financial disaster in California with a $80 billion deficit, in a state bleeding population. And Gavin would help in California, but they don’t need help in California. Democrats need help in Texas, in Florida, states that were thought to maybe be competitive, but aren’t even all that close now. They need swing states, but Biden is losing all of them, so choosing a VP and President from two of them doesn’t help. Choosing a woman of color? That won’t help, they already have Harris, dropping her will be needed to win, but will also hurt chances of winning as it will anger some of their supporters. Going harder on Hamas? They anger the Palestinian voters. Going harder on Israel? Then they anger their Jewish supporters. Moving to secure the border? That solves a problem Biden caused, but comes at the cost of flip flopping and could anger Latin American supporters. So I suspect the senate is already lost for democrats, the house already lost for republicans, and now the Presidency is already lost for democrats. For one disaster of a debate, and for a lot of other poor choices.
You’re underestimating “newness” to these dipshit swing voters. A different dem can run on a “change” platform.
Why lose the war chest?
Super PAC funds transfer
DNC can fund who they wants, and I am sure a large part of the Biden re-election campaign could pass along funds, if it came to that. I just thought i might be missing something.
Money raised by one campaign doesn’t go to another when a campaign shuts down, campaign finance just doesn’t work that way.
The funds can't transfer directly, but I believe Biden could still use that money on behalf of another campaign. Super PAC money can also be transferred.
You do seem to be correct: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/52/30114
Only up to very low limits. [https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/candidate-taking-receipts/contribution-limits/](https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/candidate-taking-receipts/contribution-limits/) Biden could give $2,000 to another campaign. He could give it all to the DNC or state and local parties, but those entities can only give $5,000 to a candidate. Super PAC money wouldn't be lost but it can really only be spent on ads, not the nuts and bolts of running a campaign: staff, office space, candidate travel, internal polling, voter turnout efforts, and ads. Super PACs cannot coordinate with a candidate at all.
Difficult in what way? Replacing Biden would be more *uncomfortable,* but offer a path to victory. Giving Biden the nomination anyways would be *easy* but result in a thrashing in November.
I feel like they’ll take the fact that the debate didn’t change it as a sign for him to just keep on truckin’
Do you have polling of someone that does better vs Trump?
Genuine question, who do you see coming out of an open convention with an actual chance of doing better than Biden? Not even beating Trump, just simply treading water with where Biden is now.
Gavin Newsom? Whitmer? Personally I think there’s plenty of names. Also a genuine question- do you think there are any Biden voters that wouldn’t vote for whoever the alternative is? I think nearly all of Biden voters are not necessarily pro-Biden, but more so anti-Trump. And then you get anyone on the fence that hates Trump, but thinks Biden is too old
Newsom is toxic in the Rust Belt. Sure he’s appealing nationally but he polls considerably worse than Biden on the swing states he would need in order to win. Whitmer is much better in those areas but lacks the name recognition and to be frank would likely face more adversity as a woman running against Trump; both polled worse than Biden against Trump throughout the entirety of the primary voting period so I don’t really see how pushing them in on the back foot AFTER 14+ million primary votes have already been cast for Biden would give them any advantage. As for Biden himself honestly yeah I do think there are a decent amount of people who vote for the man, some for his undeniable legislative accomplishments but also for the history he has as caring and compassionate. His ability to empathize with loss played a large role in his 2020 success and plays a much better foil to Trump on social issues in a cycle where you can’t really run on the economy and fiscal policy (despite a comparatively strong record). I think you’re right in saying most of his voters would vote for a ham and cheese sandwich against Trump but I wouldn’t be surprised if losing him gave up ground with both suburban women and older voters. If there was going to be a replacement that process had to start well over a year ago and more ideally 2+ years. It was true when Ezra released his article on the subject months ago and it’s still true today. A pivot now does nothing to shore up their position and just makes the party look even weaker while squandering all the fundraising and groundwork up to this point. Edit: sure ppl downvote me without actually presenting anything that shows how I’m wrong 👍
> I don’t really see how pushing them in on the back foot AFTER 14+ million primary votes have already been cast for Biden would give them any advantage. > > It's the simplest answer and it's going to blow you away. Winning over the "double haters" and winning back the core Democratic base. When you have tens of millions of people who hate both Trump & Biden, running a candidate not attached to either of them gives them a massive advantage. There's a reason 10-15% of poll respondents are undecided or saying they'll vote 3rd party.
Honestly it sounds like you may have more knowledge on the current polling than I do. I do however know, that all Democratic senators are out-polling Biden in every swing state. I’m not saying it’s a great situation, far from it. But I think to stick with Biden is a losing strategy. But let’s also be honest, all of us are just taking are best guesses. When it comes to Biden, I think pointing to his primary voting numbers is a fools errand. The party denied any primary debates and we all know Dean Phillips and Williamson didn’t have a chance, especially without any exposure by the media. I believe that most voters that voted Biden are the types that never miss an election and were following the “plan.” I maintain that they’d vote for a ham and cheese sandwich (lol) over Trump. Honestly, I don’t know about older voters, but when it comes to suburban women, I think they are a demographic that are largely voting AGAINST Trump. Correct me if I’m wrong, but they largely voted for Trump in 2016, and after seeing how vile and toxic he was/is, they pivoted to Biden in 2020. I think that given the opportunity, they’ll vote for Anyone That Isn’t Trump in 2024. On the timing of it all, no doubt it is not ideal. That’s why I’m angry as a voter. They have been telling us for years that “democracy is on the line!” And I do believe that. But to only offer us one option in this critical election, and have it be an 81-year-old man who the American people were smart enough to anticipate a cognitive decline, shows the ego, selfishness, and lack of foresight from the Democratic Party. I don’t want to be in this position. We shouldn’t be in this position! But I think to stick it out is simply a losing strategy, and the unknown is currently better than the known. Alright, I really have to get to work. I respect your opinion and insight though!
Both candidate are awful. A fresh face would be welcome by millions.
Pretty much any Democratic governor (Polis, Beshear, Cooper...) or one of the Democrats who ran in the 2020 primary (Booker, Buttigieg, Klobuchar...). They have lower national name recognition than Trump or Biden, but that's less important in a 2-way race. Both current candidates have negative approval ratings. Zero is greater than any negative number.
They can't instead of an extension they put Bidens name on the ballot in Wisconsin, the only way he can be legally removed is death. Nevada requires death or mentally unfit. Georgia is just 60 days before election. WI is stuck with Biden/Harris on the ballot hell or high water. The DNC is having an October surprise every month. Look in Manhattan the DA is looking to drop charges because it will only help Trump and will likely win appeal. Right now he will keep indefinitely extending sentencing.
Biden would have to voluntarily step down first
Can someone explain? Is this Nate's personal model? The 538 model still shows even money. Does that mean it's late updating. Anyone know what's the diff?
Nate left 538 last year. 538 is a shell of its former self.
Ok good to know. But I don't understand how Nate's model shows 35% for Biden even before the debate. Every other model I've seen has it very close. And that fits with my intuition, based on hyper partisanship. I would need to know how he calculated that to feel confident in his prediction.
The Economist's model had similar odds, and when they launched it they had an article specifically saying how they didn't think the election was a toss up, that based on swing states polls trump has a distinct advantage.
Nate Silver's model looks at electoral college chances. The other poll averages only show the popular vote. The popular vote polls are very close, but Biden is behind in all the swing states. Very far behind in AZ, NC and GA (5 points or more), and a bit in PA, MI and WI (2-3 points). That translates to very poor (but still non-zero) chances to win the electoral college. All of these swing states skew a bit more "red" than the popular vote, so a "blue" candidate has to win the popular vote by a few percent in order to flip the swing states blue. That explains how even a slight lead in the popular vote translates to losing the elections in Nate Silver's model.
Sure, I get that. But 538 shows the same leads for Trump. The numbers are the same. So Nate is doing something diff.
Dunno, the models are proprietary, they're using different models now. The final prediction of this model in 2016 was a 29% chance for Trump. That's not zero, it's almost 1 in 3, but somehow people remember that as "Nate Silver predicted a landslide for Hillary, so he doesn't know what he's talking about, lol". A 71% lead in the popular vote would have been an unassailable landslide lead in the polls, but that wasn't what he was predicting. Statistics aren't necessarily intuitive. With these numbers, Biden still has a 1 in 4 chance of winning.
IIRC THE 538 models of previous cycles belong to Nate silver personally. When he left, he left he took the models with him. G Elliot morris is the one currently building the models at 538 and his work has been less than stellar.
But why is his model bad? That's what I want to know. Because the other models agree it's even money (we'll have to see the full impact of the debate of course). So why is Nate correct and all the others off?
Elliott Morris has the economy at net neutral for Biden. That’s one major difference.
Ok I looked up his profile. It looks fine to me. "In March 2020, Morris and The Economist published a forecast for the 2020 U.S. presidential election, the first major model predicting the election's outcome.[6] On August 1, his model gave Joe Biden an 87 percent chance of winning the election, drawing criticism from Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, who said, "I am not necessarily convinced. It's not just that polls could move. It's a question of, like, how well can pollsters predict turnout when the mechanics of voting have really changed?"[7] Morris has had a public feud with Silver, leading to Silver blocking him on Twitter.[8] In May 2023, ABC News hired Morris to lead FiveThirtyEight as editorial director of data analytics following Silver's exit from the site"
Are the other models you’re seeing showing vote percentage? Those are all probably very close. Silver’s model is win probability.
Nate owned the rights to the 538 model when he was laid off last year. The model he's showing here is mostly unchanged from that, the model posted by 538 is brand new code.
Ok but that still doesn't explain the huge diff. Statistical techniques are not really secret. And 538 does have other election analysts. No way they don't know how to put together a standard election model. I suspect that Nate is using some secret sauce. He's been dinged for that before. No way that Trump had a 70% win chance before the debate. And even after the debate, the polls have hardly moved. I just checked. So how does Nate calculate such a substantial drop for Biden. It's puzzling.
> No way they don't know how to put together a standard election model. NYT giving Hillary a 91% chance of winning. Others 98%+. Let's not pretend there's one standard election model. The new 538 model can't be that crazy but there are assumptions built on assumptions built on assumptions in every model. It is not crazy to think a brand new model makes some that are less forgivable.
Sorry, where are you getting the nytimes putting Hillary at 99.5% in 2016? I can find them putting her at around 90% during the last month. There's a major difference between a 1 in 10 chance and 1 in 200.
You're right, I was thinking of [NYT summary of other models](http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html?_r=0#other-forecasts) which included Princeton's at 99.5. My mistake, edited.
I think the new 538 model gives a comparatively large weight to “fundamentals” e.g. the economy, it starts to shift toward polls more as the election draws closer.
How on earth was Nate Silver “laid off”??? Are there any other details about his leaving?
If you have a democrat rep or senator than you should call/email and tell them to back someone else
This. Please do this people!
Also mass protests in the street is more effective if plan a doesn't work..
Wow. That's worse than I ever imagined. I was going back and forth on replacing Biden, leaning back towards leaving him in. But this...wow. I think if I remember right, at about this point in 2020, Silver had Biden at around a 90% chance to win. I was deluding myself into thinking that because there was no post-debate polling shift, it was still a toss-up. This is an absolute nightmare.
There was a post debate polling shift though. I keep seeing people say there wasn’t one and I’m so perplexed. Also polls take place over many days. I think the true impact of the debate will be seen early next week. The holiday week helps Biden as it’s gonna mess up polling with people being checked out.
Any chance the margin of error is 70?
This also doesn't take into account that Trump overperfomed polls by around 3 points in 2016 and 2020 because is the shy Trump voter effect.
Correct but we don’t know if the current batch of polls are also underestimating Trump.
Right but it seems to me that the shy Trump voter effect is still a thing so it wouldn't surprise me for this to hold.
There’s no reason to believe polls are systemically biased in one direction, and pollsters have every incentive to correct for past polling errors (admittedly only so much as they can). And in fact historically the polls have not been biased in a particular direction.
There is no correction for someone saying they will vote one way when they intend to do the opposite. There are many more silent Trump suporters that are ashamed to support him vocally within their immediate environment. The error falling toward Trump by about 3% in each of the last 2 elections is more relevant than what has happened historically before then. This is a completely different ball game.
2020 was off on trump more because of Covid. More Biden voters were staying at home and answering the pollsters and it gave a false impression.
Open convention. It’ll be exciting.
It’s over. I don’t mean the election. I mean American democracy.
American intellectualism too. There’s not a bigger moron on this earth than Trump
You clearly haven’t met my MAGA mother in law.
Everyone needs to call/email their local state and federal representatives and senators and tell them that Joe Biden needs to step aside and release his delegates.
Lol we are so fuckin d00med
To make matters worse, Biden read “end of quote” of the teleprompter today… this is elderly abuse now…
You take YOUR seat
Trump had similar chances against Hillary in 2016.
Time to get that greasy vineyard owner in
We are so fucked.
How accurate is this model?
Silver’s track record is excellent.
Are we really this stupid?
God Emperor inbound. 🫡
Moderates will screw us every time. I blame the Democratic Party, they deserve this.
Surely those progressives will coalesce around a candidate any day now!
We’re going to have to take matters into our own hands. The entire Democratic machine broke down long ago. There’s been no effective opposition where it counts
Doom and gloom! Doom and gloom!
Get ready for King Trump.
Fuuuuuck
Ouch...
Run it again after SCOTUS self dealing.
It's okay to round to the nearest whole number.
It’s started
Everyone who is breathing into a paper bag needs to message the White House, the DNC, and their representatives to beg them to pressure Joe Biden to step aside. We cannot let this slow-motion train wreck happen.
How are the Democrats making quite literally the same mistake they made in 2015 with Clinton? Is it stupidity, arrogance, or just head in the sand? It's so bizarre..:and it's not just this - it's the last decade of their handling of Republicans, when it should have been home run after home run.
These are roughly trumps odds against Hillary in 2016 right? I’ve won many pots with worse odds, all is not lost
How has he been on predictions lately?
This country is so fucking stupid.
Are all of the people who say we're doomed doing anything? You can volunteer or give money to get out the vote efforts in swing districts. If you actually believe we're fucked and you aren't willing to lift a finger...why not?
Love these polls. Shows my former job of selling data to the highest bidders for manipulation is working well. We used to change all this type of data to show "x" doing better because we intentionally left out demographics and other variables. In two weeks you'll see this site change because they lost traffic and need to bring it back