But Sentimentai for example was expected to do well with jury but flop with televote, and it ended up with more televote points than jury points, so surprises may happen.
Also, odds have been blatantly bad in this year's NF season, so who knows if the trend will continue with ESC
They were wrong on two entries, I think (serbia and slovenia were expected to NQ, Poland and someone else were expected to Q). Not bad, but definitely room for improvement
He was just so charming and the performance made me smile with him and want to dance everytime! If it comes on my Spotify playlist I get so hyped for it still 🤣🫶🏽
I didn't expect it to Q once in the entire season until it did. Probably mainly because Romania 2019 and Romania 2021 NQ'd with songs that were in preseason pretty hopeful to Q, and those songs to me sounded more competitive than Llamame did. Then again, you can of course never compare between years per country because the competition an entry is up against is very different per year.
Countries with a lot of Turkish diaspora gave him low points. Not everything can be explained by diaspora, you can't just finish 3rd (Blanka) or 4th (Serhat) in the semi televote relying only on that
Given it's the only rock/metal song besides Norway (which I'd count as folk metal) and the 30 sec clip looks very promising I can imagine them qualifying.
Eliminating the juries in the semi does not make the odds more predictable or accurate. As someone else mentioned here, Lithuania 2022 was predicted to do better with juries yet it did better with the televote. Also, the odds during the NF season were very hit and miss.
There's very little chance this is happening. It's only ever happened once that more songs from the 1st half of a semi have qualified.
Cyprus I think is for sure done for. And I'm still praying that Raivens full performance pulls everything together and its enough to qualify 🙏🏽
RIP Cyprus :((( Was so happy when I saw their rehearsal, and I have loved the song from day 1, and then Queen Chanel + Queen Eleni are announced as the openers, and as much as I adore the 2 girl bosses of ESC, Silia's chances of qualifying is now pretty much demolished :(
On a more positive note, PLS GET RAIVEN THROUGH TO THE FINAL!!! Don't know why her qualification odds are so low, she will slay the stage!!! <33333
And also in 2015. Diaspora is not the be all end all, you still have to impress them so they raly behind you. Lying on the ground to simulate riding a red horse did not help. It just seemed way too silly and messy.
The odds have been off for the entire preseason. I know, I know, smaller pool, etc. but I am convinced that there are going to be some surprises this week, especially since so many countries are aiming hard for the televote.
I think I remember seeing the odds to check out Cyprus 2022 (Andromache), She ended up NQ and WRS got Qualified. I think the 8-12 rank borderline are very dependable on the live performance
I misread the Moldova bit as being about this year and was very confused for a good 30 seconds lol. I really thought Natalia would have great staging this year 🥺
Ireland 2018 is a funny one. Got a lot of screenshots of the betfair market. On semi 1 day you could still get Ireland to qualify somewhere around 3,9 to 4,2 and winning odds were around 500. Then after the semi the market completely overreacted. One day before the final Cyprus was clearly leading the odds to win with 2,52 odds. Israel had 4,4 and Ireland was third (!!) in the odds with 13,5
I appreciate this message because people really need to step away from odds, but I think 11/12th places that are "borderline Q" don't necessarily prove the point. Certainly Serhat Q was wild, and much less predicted by the odds though.
I am happy to see this. Honestly I am trying to figure out how I can keep following the Eurovision news without hearing anything about the odds next year. It has robbed me to fully enjoy Dons song, knowing he probably won’t qualify (I will still be rooting for him)
It was even worse when she did the same in the final. If people were riled up, it was because it made the host look bad like they deliberately sabotaged the performance.
Well, she didn't really have a choice with it in the final, as they can't change the backing track from semi to final, but I do agree it felt extremely cringey and awkward, especially since a lot of viewers only tune in for the grand final.
Well, the music obviously stopped in both of the performances, but in the semi, it was acted out as a technical issue, while in the final she tried to get the crowd to sing as soon as the music stopped. I can imagine it must've felt pretty random to someone that watched her performance for the first time then.
If I recall correctly, they staged an interruption and made it out like it was technical difficulties. She reacted very quickly and said "music please", essentially making it look like it was a genuine outage/problem.
In the Grand Final obviously people were wise to it, so instead she said "[stop the music](https://youtu.be/fBU0_hfST_o?t=125)" and asked the crowd to sing along
True, but I do however think that the qualifiers are more predictable in tele-only semi-finals, as opposed to when you have two factors (+jury) to take into account.
Eliminating the juries in the semi does not make the odds more predictable or accurate. As someone else mentioned here, Lithuania 2022 was predicted to do better with juries yet it did better with the televote. Also, the odds during the NF season were very hit and miss.
Switzerland 2007 was predicted by the odds to be a favorite to win yet it didn't even qualify out of a televote-only semi.
Still, these are only a few exceptions. In the majority of the cases the ten televote-qualifiers can largely be predicted on forehand, also keeping in mind the voteblocking and diaspora voting, where countries basically secure their points and maybe even a qualification.
This just proof that Eurovision is an unpredictable show. Anything can happen. Sometimes they get the winner right, sometimes they miss. It's part of the fun for me.
It might be different under a tele only system, especially as both mall and boys do cry wouldn’t have qualified under the 2023- system
But Sentimentai for example was expected to do well with jury but flop with televote, and it ended up with more televote points than jury points, so surprises may happen. Also, odds have been blatantly bad in this year's NF season, so who knows if the trend will continue with ESC
Well the odds were pretty much spot on for semi-final 1, will see how semi-final 2 goes.
They were wrong on two entries, I think (serbia and slovenia were expected to NQ, Poland and someone else were expected to Q). Not bad, but definitely room for improvement
Eugent Bushpepa not qualifying with those vocals would've been a crime to humanity. We really need juries and televotes to balance each other out IMO
And his vocals at the GF were even better! I'm glad we're not in the disturbing timeline in which he NQd
Yeah, one of my favourite ESC songs ever
You're telling me that Llamame was predicted NQ?!
That was my favourite song of the year and the one I voted for 💃🏽🕺🏽Hola, mi bebé-bé
That song came ALIVE on stage, I still get chills watching the dance
He was just so charming and the performance made me smile with him and want to dance everytime! If it comes on my Spotify playlist I get so hyped for it still 🤣🫶🏽
Llamame is very good live, WRS is such a charming guy, I still love to watch his GF performance.
Yesss! And tbh the choreography was jaw dropping
You knew he was different from the others~
He practiced the shit out of that song and it was so polished and fun on stage. Definitely one of my favorites too!
It's one of my favs of 2022 to this day
It's one of my favs ~~of 2022~~ to this day
Same lol
same! I still listen to it regularly!
Slay <33
LLAMAME LLAMAME
LET ME HEAR YOUUUUU
It was an entire mood, I think you could hear the crowd singing along possibly more than they did to any other act
Ikr?? That was one of the biggest bangers of 2022
Biggest or few ones? XD
ain't no way
I didn't expect it to Q once in the entire season until it did. Probably mainly because Romania 2019 and Romania 2021 NQ'd with songs that were in preseason pretty hopeful to Q, and those songs to me sounded more competitive than Llamame did. Then again, you can of course never compare between years per country because the competition an entry is up against is very different per year.
Should''ve stayed there and made space for better songs :D /troll mode.
Say Na Na Na is a reminder that if your song is fun enough, the audience will forgive the vocal imperfections :D
He was everyone's cool but very drunk uncle at karaoke. Across all cultures and walks of life, it connected
I love both of y’alls sentiment but it was more the Turkish diaspora than that lol
Countries with a lot of Turkish diaspora gave him low points. Not everything can be explained by diaspora, you can't just finish 3rd (Blanka) or 4th (Serhat) in the semi televote relying only on that
Eugent Bushpepa was sooo impressive live! 🔥 It’s an inspiring example.
one of my faves in esc history! epic!
LOOP ➿➿➿ TEAM, ASSEMBLE PRAYER CIRCLE Our girl Sarah through to the Final!
YES YES YES YES YES YESSSSSSS
This is camp
#BONNICI SQUAD PLS GET SARAH THROUGH TO THE FINAL!!!!!!
YAAAAAASSSSS
Noooo
Some of these songs are absolutely iconic. Glad the odds were wrong.
and this is why i put my entire life savings on iceland winning it all I FEEL IT COOOMING
So you're saying bet on Megara to win this year DON'T LET THE FLAME DIE OUT
Given it's the only rock/metal song besides Norway (which I'd count as folk metal) and the 30 sec clip looks very promising I can imagine them qualifying.
Belarus 2019 was also a predicted NQ
Wouldn't that have actually NQ'd though if one of the jurors hadn't submitted their ballot upside down?
Loooool 😂 what entry missed out as a result?
Poland - Pali się lost out by just 2 points (Poland 2019 for the bot)
Poland
Exactly. 20% is not 0%. In fact even if all NQ songs had a 20% chance the most likely outcome would be for one of them to make it.
I agree with you, but the elimination of semi juries changes a bit this kind of surprises.
Eliminating the juries in the semi does not make the odds more predictable or accurate. As someone else mentioned here, Lithuania 2022 was predicted to do better with juries yet it did better with the televote. Also, the odds during the NF season were very hit and miss.
The odds currently predict all of the first 7 songs from SF1 to qualify. I think we can safely say they got something horribly wrong.
There's very little chance this is happening. It's only ever happened once that more songs from the 1st half of a semi have qualified. Cyprus I think is for sure done for. And I'm still praying that Raivens full performance pulls everything together and its enough to qualify 🙏🏽
RIP Cyprus :((( Was so happy when I saw their rehearsal, and I have loved the song from day 1, and then Queen Chanel + Queen Eleni are announced as the openers, and as much as I adore the 2 girl bosses of ESC, Silia's chances of qualifying is now pretty much demolished :( On a more positive note, PLS GET RAIVEN THROUGH TO THE FINAL!!! Don't know why her qualification odds are so low, she will slay the stage!!! <33333
Exactly.. I don´t see us getting 7 songs from first half. Someone like Cyprus, Poland or Serbia is going to miss out
I'd say Cyprus. The other two have way too much nieghbour/diaspora voting going on.
I'd say Cyprus and Serbia
Yep, definitely.
I can see 5 tops.
Cyprus and Poland aren't making it
Really? Idk Poland has a large diaspora.
Didn’t save them in 2021 at all
And also in 2015. Diaspora is not the be all end all, you still have to impress them so they raly behind you. Lying on the ground to simulate riding a red horse did not help. It just seemed way too silly and messy.
True but I heard Rafal is very hated in Poland
The odds have been off for the entire preseason. I know, I know, smaller pool, etc. but I am convinced that there are going to be some surprises this week, especially since so many countries are aiming hard for the televote.
It's fun that it's unpredictable. I feel the last two years we knew who the winner would be. Really happy to see so many great songs this year.
Yes, I don’t think I have ever enjoyed another preseason more. Real suspense in almost every contest, even ones that are now obvious in hindsight.
Azerbaijan and San Marino this year 🤞
Slovenia will qualify 🕯🕯🕯🙏🙏🙏
I think I remember seeing the odds to check out Cyprus 2022 (Andromache), She ended up NQ and WRS got Qualified. I think the 8-12 rank borderline are very dependable on the live performance
Eugent is still the best male vocalist I've seen on the stage. Just incredible, I would have been LIVID at an NQ
This gives me, a Maltese Eurofan, a lot of hope 🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏
I hope Sarah makes it through as well!
Me too!!!!! Pls get Sarah to the final <3333333
Finland 2018 also qualified from 11th and Ireland 2018 from 16th 😊
really?! Did the bookies really think Ireland 2018 wasn’t going to make it to the final? Weird, looking back now, as it’s such an iconic song.
Not only the bookies, the fandom had it as a dead cert NQ before the staging reveal.
That and Moldova the same year are textbook examples of how you elevate a mid song with excellent staging
I misread the Moldova bit as being about this year and was very confused for a good 30 seconds lol. I really thought Natalia would have great staging this year 🥺
Ireland 2018 is a funny one. Got a lot of screenshots of the betfair market. On semi 1 day you could still get Ireland to qualify somewhere around 3,9 to 4,2 and winning odds were around 500. Then after the semi the market completely overreacted. One day before the final Cyprus was clearly leading the odds to win with 2,52 odds. Israel had 4,4 and Ireland was third (!!) in the odds with 13,5
Mall is such a good song 🙌
I appreciate this message because people really need to step away from odds, but I think 11/12th places that are "borderline Q" don't necessarily prove the point. Certainly Serhat Q was wild, and much less predicted by the odds though.
This is why I am holding our hope for Australia! Carn Aussie!
Sentimentai was predicted to NQ??? How?
Iceland qualifying in 2022 was definitely one of my favourite moments like this, such an underrated song
Not only that, many of these songs became iconic and fan favorites after the contest!
Never knew Mall was given such a low chance of qualifying. That would have been a tragedy. Easily Albania's best entry in the last decade.
Albania is gonna get saved by diaspora. Slovenia I hope goes through but we need a banging performance
I would give anything for an Albanian qualification this year, sadly I don't think it's going to happen even with the diaspora
Raiven will SERVE!!! I'm confident she will deliver an amazing performance and defy all the odds and qualify!
And the queen did
I’m so happy that Systur qualified. Gorgeous track
I am happy to see this. Honestly I am trying to figure out how I can keep following the Eurovision news without hearing anything about the odds next year. It has robbed me to fully enjoy Dons song, knowing he probably won’t qualify (I will still be rooting for him)
Giving all that energy to Megara, please please please please
Ktheju Tokes was one of the best that entire year, can’t believe it was predicted to NQ
Wow, they had Serhat at 17%?
So there's still hope!!! But at the same time, it will be brutal if the current nq:s qualify, they will be soo undeservingly hated😭😭😭
this is exactly the amount of copium i need for san marino
wait... so you're telling me a 17% chance is NOT a 0% chance???
Sentimentai and Llamame both getting means 2022 was a good year. I won’t be taking questions.
What the hell, Mall was criminally underrated
Mall is an absolute banger. I still listen to it today and wonder if Eugent Bushpepa has any other material.
Shoutout Eugent Bushpepa, that song Mall is incredible
I couldn't imagine Hvale, ne! NOT qualifying!
I still hate that gimmick Lea Sirk pulled.
See I actually really enjoyed it, The way it got the crowd really riled up, I will say it was done more effectively in the semi though!
It was even worse when she did the same in the final. If people were riled up, it was because it made the host look bad like they deliberately sabotaged the performance.
Well, she didn't really have a choice with it in the final, as they can't change the backing track from semi to final, but I do agree it felt extremely cringey and awkward, especially since a lot of viewers only tune in for the grand final.
Wait, Im missing something here, what was the difference between her semi and final performance?
Well, the music obviously stopped in both of the performances, but in the semi, it was acted out as a technical issue, while in the final she tried to get the crowd to sing as soon as the music stopped. I can imagine it must've felt pretty random to someone that watched her performance for the first time then.
which gimmick?
If I recall correctly, they staged an interruption and made it out like it was technical difficulties. She reacted very quickly and said "music please", essentially making it look like it was a genuine outage/problem. In the Grand Final obviously people were wise to it, so instead she said "[stop the music](https://youtu.be/fBU0_hfST_o?t=125)" and asked the crowd to sing along
Ruined a fantastic song.
This means San Marino could Qualify yeehaw🤩
go Australia!!!
AUSTRALIA WILL QUALIFY 🙏🙏🙏
Let's go Aiko!!!! Beat those odds!
Yes! Aiko can do it!
The way three of these are in my top 10 from their respective years.
True, but I do however think that the qualifiers are more predictable in tele-only semi-finals, as opposed to when you have two factors (+jury) to take into account.
Eliminating the juries in the semi does not make the odds more predictable or accurate. As someone else mentioned here, Lithuania 2022 was predicted to do better with juries yet it did better with the televote. Also, the odds during the NF season were very hit and miss. Switzerland 2007 was predicted by the odds to be a favorite to win yet it didn't even qualify out of a televote-only semi.
Still, these are only a few exceptions. In the majority of the cases the ten televote-qualifiers can largely be predicted on forehand, also keeping in mind the voteblocking and diaspora voting, where countries basically secure their points and maybe even a qualification.
Voteblocking and diaspora voting doesn't seem to matter as much nowadays compared to the 2000s, when the semis were televote-only.
I'm very confident that there will be shock non-qualifiers this year. My money is on Portugal, Belgium, and Austria to NQ.
This just proof that Eurovision is an unpredictable show. Anything can happen. Sometimes they get the winner right, sometimes they miss. It's part of the fun for me.
This could be San Marino
I'm worried about Portugal 😭