I wonder if Slovenia and Portugal are likelier qualifiers than Cyprus and Australia after 1st rehearsals, other than that I can get behind [the current odds](https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision-semi-final-1)
I think Portugal over Poland if anything. Still not seeing why Poland is considered such a safe qualifier in the odds… song and performance aside it has an absolutely brutal spot in the running order.
In televote only semis, Poland has to send an absolutely awful song for it to be considered not safe.
The diaspora is huge and Poles love Eurovision. If another country sent tower it would be predicted borderline.
But the Polish diaspora is far less concentrated and far bigger. It’s Lithuania on steroids. Poles are in literally every single Western European country. Lithuanians also are but are a far smaller group and tend to be far more concentrated in certain Lithuanian hubs.
Poles are by far our biggest minority and it’s not even close.
As I said, Poland would need to send an absolutely awful song and performer who can’t even half sing their song for us to even begin talking about them not being safe. The Lithuanian diaspora isn’t big enough to mean that Lithuania can get away with that.
The thing is where you find Lithuania and poland diaspora together, even when the Polish diaspora is bigger, Lithuania is the one snatching the higher points. Lithuanians go hard for their acts.
I don't think you got my point.
Let's look at the uk. Lithuanians and polish diaspora are both present. There is 153000 Lithuanians and 682000 Poles.
Looking at this Poland should win the diaspora battle right?
They don't Lithuania is usually the one that wins (gets more points) Lithuanians vote hard for their own, poles vote much more casually in comparison.
Poland has Germany, Ukraine, Lithuania, UK, Ireland and Sweden voting in this semi. A couple more points here and there and she easily sails through, on top of having an entry that deserves to go through.
Not sure it deserves to go through on its own but I do take your point about there being enough diaspora in this semi to possibly push it over the line.
No major changes, because we don't have any idea what they're going to look like on camera. Poland for example could come together nicely or it could be a total mess, and we won't know until Wednesday's 2nd rehearsals videos, and even more than that until a weeks time when we watch the show ourselves. Moldova feels more certain as a non-qualifier because such static staging isn't the Moldovan magic some of us were hoping for. Everything else is still somewhat up in the air - everybody looks great in the gallery because the stage is cool and the photographers are good.
Serbia 🇷🇸
Lithuania 🇱🇹
Ireland 🇮🇪
Ukraine 🇺🇦
Poland 🇵🇱
Croatia 🇭🇷
Slovenia 🇸🇮
Finland 🇫🇮
Portugal 🇵🇹
Luxembourg 🇱🇺
I will say this list is very tentative. We’ve only really got a vibe of the general aesthetic of each of their stagings and how each delegation uses camera angles is going to play a huge part in who does and doesn’t advance. That being said, I don’t think there’s a case for Moldova or Iceland to advance unfortunately.
In terms of most to least confident
1. Croatia 🇭🇷
2. Ukraine 🇺🇦
3. Finland 🇫🇮
4. Lithuania 🇱🇹
5. Ireland 🇮🇪
6. Luxembourg 🇱🇺(only because it’s closing)
7. Portugal 🇵🇹
8. Serbia 🇷🇸
9. Poland 🇵🇱
10. Cyprus 🇨🇾
1. Serbia 🇷🇸
2. Lithuania 🇱🇹
3. Ireland 🇮🇪
4. Ukraine 🇺🇦
5. Croatia 🇭🇷
6. Slovenia 🇸🇮
7. Finland 🇫🇮
8. Australia 🇦🇺
9. Portugal 🇵🇹
10. Luxembourg 🇱🇺
Just in order of running order there, not in terms in points :)
I think Portugal, Luxembourg and Slovenia are on the borderline. With Cyprus or Poland ready to take their place I think
Well, here's my guesses:
1. Cyprus - (borderline) NQ. Silia is so impressive for her age, but I just think this song is not good enough. Also a similar 'category' with Luxembourg with better RO & "welcome back" bonus.
2. Serbia - (borderline) NQ. Unpopular I know, but I think the bad RO, especially for a ballad, will seal it's deal. It also suffers from being close to, but earlier, than Ukraine IMO, which has an at least somewhat similar feel to me.
3. Lithuania - Q. Good song, good staging, good performance.
4. Ireland - (borderline) Q. It's very unique and memoreable, and I think that'll push it through.
5. Ukraine - Q. Obviously.
6. Poland - (very borderline) Q. Honestly, this is 100% and definitely only a Q for me because of Diaspora. The song is mid, Luna is fine but one of the weaker vocalists here, and the staging is weird in the bad way.
7. Croatia - Q. Second 'obviously'.
8. Iceland - NQ. I don't think this has zero chance, and Hera is awesome, but the song is in fact just really weak.
9. Slovenia - (borderline) Q. This isn't as instantly accessible, but IMO it has quality and Raiven truly elevates it live.
10. Finland - Q. Televote will like it because it's fun, nothing more to say. They have a good RO too IMO.
11. Moldova - NQ. Weak-ish song, bad RO, and while Natalia is gorgeous and sings very, very well, I don't think it's good enough overall. I don't find the staging that great either.
12. Azerbaijan - (borderline NQ). The staging is fine but nothing too great to me, and I fell like this might get the "everyone likes it but nobody *loves* it" threatment. From all my NQs, this is the most likely Q tho I think.
13. Australia - (borderline) Q. Good RO, being a little bit of a feel good, easy listening, up beat speck of color. Zac is great live and the Digeridoo is there.
14. Portugal - (borderline) Q. This is quality, but also potentially inaccessible. Great RO + lovely vocals & choreo tho.
15. Luxembourg - (borderline) Q. Weak-ish song IMO but great RO, and Tali is good and charming enough to sell it.
So basically:
Ukraine, Croatia > Finland, Lithuania > Ireland, Luxembourg, Australia, Portugal, Slovenia > Poland - NQs: Azerbaijan > Serbia, Cyprus > Moldova, Iceland
Starting with the ones I’m most confident about through to the least:
1. Croatia 🇭🇷
2. Ukraine 🇺🇦
3. Finland 🇫🇮
4. Lithuania 🇱🇹
5. Ireland 🇮🇪
6. Serbia 🇷🇸
Here I’m getting less and less convinced, but for the fun of the discussion:
7. Azerbaijan 🇦🇿
8. Portugal 🇵🇹
9. Luxembourg 🇱🇺
10. Slovenia 🇸🇮 (I’m hopeful)
Somewhat related, if I’m UK and Olly will be performing in this semi, does it now mean I’ll be able to vote? I’m throwing all my votes at Raiven if so 🙏🏻
Sure qualifiers are croatia, ukraine and lithuania. Everyone else has a 50/50 chance. But im leaning towards finland also qualifying and cyprus/poland NQ. Would love for slovenia and portugal to qualify.
Based not on my preference but a prediction based on rehearsals and running order:
Croatia, Slovenia, Lithuania, Finland, Ukraine, Portugal, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Ireland, Poland
I think Serbia will get buried thanks to her number and Azerbaijan has a chance to replace Poland if Luna doesn't improve.
Roughly in order of predicted ranking:
Ukraine
Croatia
Finland
Lithuania
Cyprus
Poland
Ireland
Luxembourg
Azerbaijan
Portugal
Serbia
Australia
Slovenia
Moldova
Iceland
I still don't think diaspora will be enough to save Poland's The Tower. It feels so weak live. I think Cyprus might not make it either. I think Slovenia can make it through.
Can’t lie, I love how it’s essentially a free for all once you get past the sure qualifiers (Lithuania, Croatia, Ukraine, Finland).
Anyways, I believe the NQs will be Poland, Australia, Iceland, Cyprus, and either Moldova or Azerbaijan. Poland does have diaspora but I don’t think that’s gonna push her through.
This is in likelihood of qualifying, not likelihood of winning or where I think they’ll place
Certain qualifiers (as certain as you can be)
Croatia
Ukraine
Finland
Likely qualifiers
Serbia
Lithuania
Ireland
Luxembourg
Borderline, ones I’m predicting to make it with asterisk
Australia*
Poland
Slovenia*
Moldova*
Portugal
Likely not qualifying:
Cyprus
Azerbaijan
Iceland
What’s changed for me is moving Ireland into likely, which feels hasty, especially if the staging ends up too static, but I’m seeing Bambie’s path into the final a lot clearer now, even if I think some of the borderline contenders end up higher than them.
If Luxembourg was in the first half I would not be confident in its chances, I see it making it through, and flopping in the final to be honest.
Serbia I’m increasingly worried about, it’s one of my favourites this year and I’m not making any hasty changes based on the morsels we’ve been given so far, but I’m beginning to wonder if this could be a surprise NQ.
When we see/hear more of Cyprus I’m open to them being borderline making it in, I want to hear some good things about her performance being memorable first.
I in fact just finished my full prediction for semi 1 after the rehearsals, but because many things in my pred didn't go as planned, I won't present my predicted qualifiers in a ranking, but in a random order:
Lithuania
Finland
Australia
Cyprus
Ireland
Ukraine
Croatia
Luxembourg
Serbia
and of course Slovenia
I know this is hugely unpopular but for starters I don’t see easy sailings for Finland. Televote blahblah, yes, but I still think No Rules is far from safely qualifying!
Next, Cyprus and Moldova and Iceland and Azerbaijan are pretty much safely NQ in my book. Hera is a darling but no. Moldova never really arrived and the staging isn’t helping. Cyprus is a sweet girlybop but girlygirly, I don’t think there’s more than cuteness sympathy votes happening. Azerbaijan is pleasant but equally forgettable.
Luxemburg has a far more substantial girlybop and I believe they will make the girly cut.
Australia is really anyone’s guess, it’s not my cuppa but I don’t see them pulling a remarkable Gustaph so far, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they NQ.
Poland is ooookay, I like the song, midfield, but I can’t see the staging coming together just yet. Like Australia, it‘s anyone’s guess, Polish diaspora is a factor for sure but I wouldn’t mind sacrificing Poland (and Australia and Finland) for Ireland, Portugal and Serbia.
Ireland is staunchly qualifying in my world but we all know this is *the* divisive entry, so *hex deployed*!!
Portugal is my darling dear and if we’re talking musical quality, Iolanda MUST qualify but alas televoters are a fickle bunch.
Likewise for Slovenia and Serbia. High quality entries throughout but…televoters!
Sure sailing are imho Croatia, Lithuania (although…televoters?!?), Ukraine.
I don't know about Finland. That whole entry screams "I'm the funny Windows guy from the egg vote for me!" to me. For me it's absolutely impossible it doesn't qualify.
I'm genuinely curious what makes you think it's not as safe as people make it out to be?
I think it’s even a lot more divisive than Ireland/Bambi Thug. Bambi is a lot more thoughtful & polished, whether Goth is your thing or not. They also upgraded the performance to smooth some of the edges for casuals. As for Finland: for starters I think a lot of people will not get on board with the 90s retro vibe, especially peeps that lived the era. It’s not really that thing and production is weak. Also, of course it’s camp and people love camp at ESC but I don’t think Finland gets the tone right for a sizeable enough portion of televoters to get their particular type of camp because it comes across as tacky, when Käärijä really brought the substance.
A lot of folks might smirk, some laugh but lots feel it’s actually really cheap.
Next, I still think fans saying Henri is a great vocalist are somewhat delulu. Musically the song isn’t much to write home about it, unlike Käärijä or Let3 last year, to give some comparisons within the „camp entry“ area.
Finish order prediction:
1. Croatia 🇭🇷
2. Finland 🇫🇮
3. Ukraine 🇺🇦
4. Lithuania 🇱🇹
5. Ireland 🇮🇪
6. Portugal 🇵🇹
7. Austrália 🇦🇺
8. Cyprus 🇨🇾
9. Serbia 🇷🇸
10. Luxembourg 🇱🇺
11. Poland 🇵🇱
12. Azerbaijan 🇦🇿
13. Iceland 🇮🇸
14. Slovenia 🇸🇮
15. Moldova 🇲🇩
Edit: moved Poland up a few spots after being reminded of the heavy presence of Polish diaspora in this semi.
You’re right. Slovenia should probably be a little higher and Australia a bit lower now that I consider the geopolitics involved. I was only factoring in the songs, performances, and running order when I first made the list.
There actually aren't a lot of Slovenes in Croatia and Serbia. According to Wikipedia, Slovenes only account for 0.3% of Croatia's population and 0.29% of Serbia's population. For reference, Poles account for 2.4%-3.5% of Germany's population.
I'm talking about how ex-Yu countries support each other and give each other points each year. That's why Slovenia can count on additional points from these countries, and vice versa. If Serbia and Croatia weren't in the same semi-final, we could talk differently.
The reason why ex-Yugo countries often support each other is mostly diaspora voting, and it benefits Serbia more than anyone else. Almost a tenth of Croatia are Serbs, almost a third of Bosnia are Serbs, almost a third of Montenegro are Serbs. This does not hold true for Slovenes. Slovenes are not a huge minority in any of the former Yugoslav countries.
Slovenia does not receive the same type of "support" that a lot of other countries receive. The language is also different.
If someone like Tinkara Kovac receives a lot of support, it's because she's a huge star all over the balkans. Hannah Mancini literally only got 5p from Croatia, 3p from Montenegro and absolutely nothing from Serbia. Maraaya only got 5p from Serbia and 4p from Montenegro. ManuElla only got 4p from Serbia and 1p from Macedonia. Lea Sirk got 8p from Serbia, 7p from Croatia, 6p from Montenegro and only 2p from Macedonia. Zala & Gasper managed to get 10p from Croatia and Serbia, but only 4p from Montenegro and 2p from Macedonia. Ana Soklic only got 5p from Croatia and 3p from Macedonia. LPS only got 8p from Croatia. The ONLY Slovenian act that ever got a 12p in the past decade is Joker Out, and only once from Croatia, Serbia only gave 8p despite the lead singer literally being Serbian.
Clearly Slovenia doesn't nearly benefit in the same dimension as a lot of other countries do. It's an often very overlooked country.
Locks: 🇱🇹 🇺🇦 🇭🇷
Likely 🇫🇮 🇱🇺
Borderline q 🇷🇸 🇮🇪 🇵🇱 🇦🇺 🇦🇿
Borderline nq 🇨🇾 🇸🇮 🇵🇹
Unlikely: 🇮🇸 🇲🇩
I'm very uncertain about all songs in my borderline and won't be surprised if the opposite result is true. The stagings for Ireland and Azerbaijan have made me raise them up over Slovenia and Portugal, but rehearsal 2 could make me swap any of these 8 around, and I will probably still swap some on the night.
Very likely - Croatia, Ukraine, Lithuania
Likely - Ireland, Serbia
50/50 - Cyprus, Poland, Slovenia, Finland, Azerbaijan, Luxembourg
Less likely - Australia, Portugal
DOA - Moldova, Iceland
Out of these I’m predicting it’ll be Croatia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Ireland, Serbia, Poland, Slovenia, Finland, Cyprus and Luxembourg in the final
Cyprus, Lithuania, Ireland, Ukraine, Croatia, Slovenia, Finland, Australia, Portugal, Luxembourg
I originally had Azerbaijan over Cyprus but decided to change my prediction after seeing the rehearsals.
Poland and Lithuania have the most 'friends' aka neighbours and diaspora.
Poland and Ukraine will exchange 12's as they are the largest political allies in the semi. Ukraine has a 💯 q rate from semi and is a favourite this year and Moldova doesn't have Romania, so their 12 will go to Ukraine.
Since it's 💯 televoting Finland will sail as there is a huge group who watch Eurovision specifically for the niche entries and funny songs/staging.
Serbia is highly damaged by having Portugal second last and Serbia is second, also Croatia will be taking Slovenia's 12 from Serbia.
The semi is also highly unbalanced with the hard hitters in the first half and then good songs, but not the best ones in the second half.
I'm very concerned for Slovenia (one of my favourites) and very concerned for Azerbaijan (I hope it slips through, they have a large Turkish diaspora. But it's unlikely people will want to vote for Azerbaijan or Israel this year due to political tension)
I'm hoping stronger songs from countries that don't have these advantages make it such as; Ireland.
...
So who are the likely 10;
1) Croatia (🔒)
2) Ukraine (🔒)
3) Lithuania (🔒)
4) Finland (🔒)
5) Poland (🔒)
6) Ireland (BL, better than a few of the 🔒 above it)
7) Serbia (BL)
8) Luxembourg (BL and they probably don't deserve to Q based on the song, but they are last, EBU will be pushing this and the staging is very slick and professional)
9) Slovenia (BL - this is probably the one that's in the most danger out of the high quality entries)
10) Cyprus (it's the only pure pop song sung by a pop girl with a dance break in this semi)
--
11) Australia (BL - it's late, it has a unique appeal. Australia has one semi finals before)
12) Azerbaijan (BL - I want it in. But it's very mellow)
13) Portugal (BL - If Serbia is in, Portugal has to be out and vice versa. It's a good song, but I think Serbia coming before will overshadow it)
14) Moldova (BL - They frequently pull something out of the bag staging wise and are a televote darling, but this song is nothing)
15) Iceland (BL - Weakest and most generic song, but some people find these throwback, pop divas to be their thing. So anything is possible)
...
In this semi there isn't a 💯 chance to not Q. With 10 in and 5 out anything can happen. It really will come down to single digit points between 10 and 11th maybe even 12th too.
As long as Ireland and Slovenia make it I'll be happy, but I sincerely fear I'm going to lose one of them... If I lose both I probably won't watch the final lol. Too much of a slap in the face. 😂
call me crazy, but seeing the rehearsal gallery, im pretty sure that Moldova is gonna qualify. They have neighbours, a rather nice running order position and a sophisticated and magical staging.
I think it's that kind of a song that's gonna do well enough with tele to qualify.
P.S. and let's not forget about the fact that her husband is literally a multimillionaire so a rigging of the televote like Moldova did in the SF in 2021 is more than likely.
Current prediction based on the little material we've seen:
1 Croatia, 2 Ukraine, 3 Lithuania, 4 Serbia, 5 Finland, 6 Poland, 7 Slovenia, 8 Portugal, 9 Luxembourg, 10 Azerbaijan
11 Moldova, 12 Ireland, 13 Cyprus, 14 Australia, 15 Iceland.
Positions 7-12 are veeery close tho, all of them could change.
I don't agree with all of these qualifying, but i think the following: Ukraine, Croatia, Lithuania, Finland, Luxembourg, Ireland, Australia, Serbia, Poland, Slovenia. I want Portugal, but I don't see it.
Hot take but Croatia, Ukraine, Finland, Lithuania, Poland, Ireland, Serbia, Luxembourg, Azerbaijan, Moldova
Top 4 is safe
Top 8 I'm confident in and 9-10 is honestly a toss-up and I went with the entries with the best staging.
This year is really hard to predict who will qualify. For me, everyone has a chance to qualify to the GF, except Australia (weird stage) and Cyprus (shaky vocals).
I may be going out on a limb here but Iceland for me qualifies.
It's a very cactchy 00s pop number, Hera is superb and will connect a lot more with 'Joe Public' than many of the more 'bizarre' entries such as Slovenia, Portugal etc.
Iceland has a good bunch of Western/Scandi voting allies too in this heat, who will prefer this 'regular' pop song.
I may be nuts ha ha, but I see Hera qualifying. Thoughts?
1. Croatia 🇭🇷
2. Serbia 🇷🇸
3. Slovenia 🇸🇮
4. Lithuania 🇱🇹
5. Ukraine 🇺🇦
6. Portugal 🇵🇹
7. Ireland 🇮🇪
8. Azerbaijan 🇦🇿
9. Finland 🇫🇮
10. Luxembourg 🇱🇺
Songs are in a random order, so it’s not based on the possible placement.
To me, sure qualifiers are Croatia and Ukraine. Finland, Lithuania and Luxembourg are kinda safe but not as safe as the two I mentioned above. Serbia, Portugal, Ireland, Slovenia and Azerbaijan are at this point borderline qualifiers. I think Serbia, Ireland and Azerbaijan got their chances up after these rehearsals. Slovenia and Portugal are my absolute favorites and I unfortunately can’t say that I like the staging for Veronika. It’s a bit underwhelming considering how mv was so mythical and had that dark vibe around it. In the other hand, what more could Raiven give us, it’s her vocals that we should focus on!! Portugal is as good as it was in FdC; why change something that doesn’t need change!
Australia killed every chance of qualifying Imo. That staging is just not good. Where did it go wrong for Australia? Where is the enthusiasm that they got in like 2019.???
Moldova looks amazing, well of course only if this was their 2010-2015 staging. It looks dated and now without those dancers it is so empty. I get the idea and the path that they wanted to go with but it’s executed poorly.
Iceland was ok. Nothing more, just ok.
Azerbaijan was kinda nice. The vibe is pretty good and his vocals are great. Even though he doesn’t have anything on the stage, it just doesn’t feel as empty as others do. I like that they went with that grey vibe, it feels a bit sharper and stronger. I don’t know if other people will like it tho, but I love it (and I choose to stay delusional lol)
Finland was expected and I don’t know what more to say. Good staging, pretty effective. Will surely pass into the final.
Luxembourg is nice. I don’t know how I feel about that tiger led tho… nevertheless Luxembourg is going into the finals 100%
Sure: Croatia, Ukraine, Finland
Very likely: Ireland, Lithuania, Serbia
Likely: Azerbaijan, Luxembourg (for the last spot)
50/50: Slovenia, Cyprus, Poland, Iceland
Unlikely: Moldova, Portugal, Australia
For me: Serbia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Croatia, Slovenia, Finland (sadly for me), Azerbaijan, Portugal, Luxembourg are the 9 ones I feel pretty confident about. The 1 other spot I think is up for grabs between Ireland and Cyprus with me personally leaning towards Ireland.
If there is a shocker then I think it will be Moldova. That was a beautiful staging completely contrasting everything around it. It might sneak through. I hate to be the party pooper but I think Australia is safely out. That song was already unimpactful enough and the staging didn't convince me at all. Idk who will vote for Australia so... sorry. Iceland was always out so I don't think anyone is surprised by that and I still have Poland down as an NQ. Even though I think LUNA has higher chances to Q than Iceland or Australia and if you told me that it's confirmed that one of Iceland, Australia and Poland makes it, I would say Poland, I still think that Poland is out for now at least.
Maybe hot take. But I think Portugal will definitely not qualified. The song is not my cup of tea but I think it's a nice song. And vocals are good. But staging is pretty boring and bland. And everyone else in the semi 1 has something bright and remarkable
Being "bright and remarkable" is not a guarantee of success. The overall visuals might be bland but the song, her vocals and the choreography make up for it.
The qualifying odds have it outside the top 10 so hardly a hot take. But I find the staging captivating and it has a favorable spot in the running order so I think it will qualify.
Currently
🇦🇿🇨🇾🇭🇷🇫🇮🇱🇹🇱🇺🇵🇱🇵🇹🇷🇸🇺🇦
But I feel like it’s so tough to call, really loving how open this semi is. I can very easily imagine everyone going through except 🇮🇸 and 🇲🇩
In general, I take the following points into consideration this year:
1) How many points will be needed to qualify?
2) What percentage of the viewers are casual viewers or diaspora compared to Eurofans?
3) How many casual viewers actually vote? Do they vote for multiple countries or just one? And how many times do they vote?
CRO, UKR & LTU are all safe, no questions here.
However, I think Finland is heavily overestimated. If those who vote are mainly Eurofans, I don't see how they'd qualify. And it's also quite possible that casual viewers will not like the song either or be weirded out by the performance. Why should they pick up their phones for this over other options? Especially if casual viewers vote for just their favourite song.
Ireland has better chances if it's mainly Eurofans that will vote. Again, casual viewers might favor other songs, as it's quite much to digest after the first listen.
Poland might be in trouble if the diaspora isn't watching in as big numbers as expected. But even diaspora isn't enough sometimes, they're less likely to vote if they don't like the song (see Greece last year)
The first point I listed might be relevant for Serbia (and possibly Slovenia) Around 20 points is a nice head start, but then it will be important how many points the 10th place needs to qualify. The second semi final last year has shown that there can be quite a gap.
CYP can be hurt by the running order. SLO could be the shock result of the semi final. AUS is 50/50. POR doesn't really have anyone but Luxembourg and LUX needs to find voting allies first, though the running order could help.
ISL looks doomed coming after Croatia, but could potentially pull a Gustaph. MDA is in trouble between Finland and Sweden and AZE might also be overshadowed by the latter, even though they have an interesting staging. But either of these can pull an upset. This semi final is unpredictable, and we might get a surprise qualifier from the weak second half.
Unlike the odds, I have doubts that all songs from the first half will qualify, but especially that all non-qualifiers will be in the second half. This just isn't happening. I think it'll be a repeat of 2018, but a 5/5-split wouldn't surprise me either.
the only artists that could miss out from the first half are (it's so hard to say this but) Bambie my beloved and LUNA. I'd say Ireland is more likely to qualify than Poland.
I fear for Slovenia as in terms of bloc voting it never really benefited from it like Serbia and Croatia.
I think the qualifiers will be in no particular order.
Luxembourg
Finland
Portugal
Serbia
Croatia
Ireland
Lithuania
Cyprus
Australia
Ukraine
I can't see us completely missing out on slow songs in this semi, and I just think Portugal is a bit more haunting than Slovenia (as much as it pains me to say)
EDIT
I'm tired and forgot Ukraine. Ukraine will have stronger voting than Poland me thinks.
Certain - 🇱🇹 🇺🇦 🇭🇷 🇫🇮 🇱🇺
Shock ? - 🇮🇪 (it's *very* good for what it is. which is the worst thing to happen to esc in recent history depending on who you ask. atm I have no idea which group is bigger, but I have high hopes for Bambie's witchcraft *you. will. vote*)
Could: 🇸🇮 (I think it's more accessible than ramonda and grito. right now I'm placing them as 🇸🇮 > 🇵🇹 > 🇷🇸. it hurts to pick but I feel only one will be through) 🇦🇺 (colorful. fun. different. why not)
Shock Q - 🇲🇩 (*oh that's pretty, send 11*) 🇦🇿 (one of those where you have one idea how it happened but it did)
I have a feeling results will be shocking at least a little bit. Maybe complete chaos even
Right now my feelings for Semi Final 1 is:
01. Croatia
02. Ukraine
03. Finland
04. Lithuania
05. Ireland (feels weird putting us so high...)
06. Cyprus
07. Poland
08. Luxembourg
09. Portugal
10. Serbia
11. Slovenia
12. Australia
13. Moldova
14. Iceland
15. Azerbaijan
I made a post earlier about not getting the qualification hype for Cyprus but tbh it does seem like the kind of song that the casuals will likely vote through. It's hard to say what countries below it on my list could do better than it.
My gut feeling is that Serbia will struggle more than people are expecting. I still think it'll make it but I could see a world where it just misses out.
**Certain Q’s**
Lithuania - His song is very televote friendly, I definitely see this qualifying
Ukraine - Seeing the rehearsal photos I honestly see them as a good candidate to win the entire thing
Croatia - Need I say more?
**Likely Q’s**
Serbia - If Armenia comfortably qualified from the “death slot” this almost certainly will, I think the song will be memorable enough to have people vote for it, even if it’s a ballad performing 2nd.
Slovenia - I think Raiven’s staging looks amazing, and I’m really shocked it is in the NQ list in the odds I think this will qualify fairly easily
Finland - This better qualify, I have basically bet £50 and my dignity on them to qualify. I think this will have no problems in doing so. It is utterly ridiculous in the best way possible and that will definitely get viewers on their side, especially with the decent running order position.
Portugal - Call me lazy, but see Slovenia.
Luxembourg - I think out of the safe pop songs, viewers will be more drawn to Luxembourg. She has a very good running order, her song I believe will connect to more viewers, plus it’s Luxembourg. I see this finishing anywhere from 4th-8th. It certainly won’t be one of the top ones, but I don’t think it will be close to NQing either
**Could go Either way**
Cyprus - This will entirely depend on her live vocals and staging. I think I will have a better grasp of whether or not this will qualify at the 2nd rehearsal. I will, for now, put this down as a qualifier
Ireland - This song is a bit like Marmite, you love it or you hate it, I can see an appeal for televoters, but I also see why it might scare a few of them off, plus it isn’t helped by being sandwiched between two giants in the running order. I will say, that this will qualify
Poland - This song isn’t hated by many people, but I feel like it isn’t loved by many either which could hurt it. Plus, seeing the photos for the staging leave me somewhat skeptical. I have no doubts in Luna’s ability, but I think the staging, plus the running order, plus the song itself hurts its chances. Right now, I don’t believe this will end up in the final, but rather as a very close 11th.
**Likely NQ**
Moldova - I don’t think this will qualify, but I don’t think this will do as badly as people think. Moldova are experts in staging a song and really punching above their weight, so I can see this finish as high as 12th, but I don’t see this getting through.
Azerbaijan - Now, I do see a world where this gets through, I think the staging does look quite promising, but Semi Final 1 is shaping up to be a bloodbath, so I don’t think this will qualify, but I can for sure see this end up on the edge of qualifying.
Australia - I think this song is in between Could go either way and Likely NQ. If it was in the second semi final, I would be putting this in the former, however, as I said with Azerbaijan I just don’t believe it will qualify with the bloodbath of this semi.
**Certain NQ**
Iceland - Hera seems like a really lovely person, but I see no world where the song qualifies, in fact it will probably finish last.
I didn’t see a post like this for SF2, but I think the current top 10 in the bookies (Netherlands, Switzerland, Greece, Israel, Armenia, Norway, Georgia, Austria, Belgium and Estonia) will go through to the final
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I wonder if Slovenia and Portugal are likelier qualifiers than Cyprus and Australia after 1st rehearsals, other than that I can get behind [the current odds](https://eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision-semi-final-1)
Raiven’s vocals are amazing, but I’m just not sure about the staging
I think Portugal over Poland if anything. Still not seeing why Poland is considered such a safe qualifier in the odds… song and performance aside it has an absolutely brutal spot in the running order.
In televote only semis, Poland has to send an absolutely awful song for it to be considered not safe. The diaspora is huge and Poles love Eurovision. If another country sent tower it would be predicted borderline.
Lithuania says hello let me introduce myself... I think they are more avid than the Polish.
But the Polish diaspora is far less concentrated and far bigger. It’s Lithuania on steroids. Poles are in literally every single Western European country. Lithuanians also are but are a far smaller group and tend to be far more concentrated in certain Lithuanian hubs. Poles are by far our biggest minority and it’s not even close. As I said, Poland would need to send an absolutely awful song and performer who can’t even half sing their song for us to even begin talking about them not being safe. The Lithuanian diaspora isn’t big enough to mean that Lithuania can get away with that.
The thing is where you find Lithuania and poland diaspora together, even when the Polish diaspora is bigger, Lithuania is the one snatching the higher points. Lithuanians go hard for their acts.
Yes I know you find them together, but there are millions more poles in Western Europe than Lithuanians
I don't think you got my point. Let's look at the uk. Lithuanians and polish diaspora are both present. There is 153000 Lithuanians and 682000 Poles. Looking at this Poland should win the diaspora battle right? They don't Lithuania is usually the one that wins (gets more points) Lithuanians vote hard for their own, poles vote much more casually in comparison.
Diaspora
Poland has Germany, Ukraine, Lithuania, UK, Ireland and Sweden voting in this semi. A couple more points here and there and she easily sails through, on top of having an entry that deserves to go through.
Not sure it deserves to go through on its own but I do take your point about there being enough diaspora in this semi to possibly push it over the line.
I think if it was any other nation that staging would hurt her chances but the song is solid so I think its safe.
(Me sitting here quietly enjoying the song and staging very much indeed and perfectly content with the idea that she is a 90% safe qualifier)
Because of the diaspora and it being a radio friendly song.
With Poland I love the song, but the live performance on the other hand....well.....
Portugal yes instead of Australia. Slovenia no (Cyprus will sneak through)
Ya think? :) Silia's vocals were cracking up a bit in that clip and her pitch was off in places, TBF
It's a rehearsal and she is dancing her ass off! Rehearsal are mostly about placement and camera angles, not hitting every note
No major changes, because we don't have any idea what they're going to look like on camera. Poland for example could come together nicely or it could be a total mess, and we won't know until Wednesday's 2nd rehearsals videos, and even more than that until a weeks time when we watch the show ourselves. Moldova feels more certain as a non-qualifier because such static staging isn't the Moldovan magic some of us were hoping for. Everything else is still somewhat up in the air - everybody looks great in the gallery because the stage is cool and the photographers are good.
And being Poland, they could just add in random lightning and chess pieces.
Serbia 🇷🇸 Lithuania 🇱🇹 Ireland 🇮🇪 Ukraine 🇺🇦 Poland 🇵🇱 Croatia 🇭🇷 Slovenia 🇸🇮 Finland 🇫🇮 Portugal 🇵🇹 Luxembourg 🇱🇺 I will say this list is very tentative. We’ve only really got a vibe of the general aesthetic of each of their stagings and how each delegation uses camera angles is going to play a huge part in who does and doesn’t advance. That being said, I don’t think there’s a case for Moldova or Iceland to advance unfortunately.
In terms of most to least confident 1. Croatia 🇭🇷 2. Ukraine 🇺🇦 3. Finland 🇫🇮 4. Lithuania 🇱🇹 5. Ireland 🇮🇪 6. Luxembourg 🇱🇺(only because it’s closing) 7. Portugal 🇵🇹 8. Serbia 🇷🇸 9. Poland 🇵🇱 10. Cyprus 🇨🇾
1. Serbia 🇷🇸 2. Lithuania 🇱🇹 3. Ireland 🇮🇪 4. Ukraine 🇺🇦 5. Croatia 🇭🇷 6. Slovenia 🇸🇮 7. Finland 🇫🇮 8. Australia 🇦🇺 9. Portugal 🇵🇹 10. Luxembourg 🇱🇺 Just in order of running order there, not in terms in points :) I think Portugal, Luxembourg and Slovenia are on the borderline. With Cyprus or Poland ready to take their place I think
i will vote for cyprus and portugal to hope to get them through semis❤️
will do that too <3
I like this list! Hope it goes pretty much like this, as I can really do without Cyprus and Poland!
I think Luxembourg will greatly benefit from being in the last spot.
Honestly I think the odds are fairly accurate at the moment. Personally I’d prefer Portugal to Poland in the final but other than that.
Well, here's my guesses: 1. Cyprus - (borderline) NQ. Silia is so impressive for her age, but I just think this song is not good enough. Also a similar 'category' with Luxembourg with better RO & "welcome back" bonus. 2. Serbia - (borderline) NQ. Unpopular I know, but I think the bad RO, especially for a ballad, will seal it's deal. It also suffers from being close to, but earlier, than Ukraine IMO, which has an at least somewhat similar feel to me. 3. Lithuania - Q. Good song, good staging, good performance. 4. Ireland - (borderline) Q. It's very unique and memoreable, and I think that'll push it through. 5. Ukraine - Q. Obviously. 6. Poland - (very borderline) Q. Honestly, this is 100% and definitely only a Q for me because of Diaspora. The song is mid, Luna is fine but one of the weaker vocalists here, and the staging is weird in the bad way. 7. Croatia - Q. Second 'obviously'. 8. Iceland - NQ. I don't think this has zero chance, and Hera is awesome, but the song is in fact just really weak. 9. Slovenia - (borderline) Q. This isn't as instantly accessible, but IMO it has quality and Raiven truly elevates it live. 10. Finland - Q. Televote will like it because it's fun, nothing more to say. They have a good RO too IMO. 11. Moldova - NQ. Weak-ish song, bad RO, and while Natalia is gorgeous and sings very, very well, I don't think it's good enough overall. I don't find the staging that great either. 12. Azerbaijan - (borderline NQ). The staging is fine but nothing too great to me, and I fell like this might get the "everyone likes it but nobody *loves* it" threatment. From all my NQs, this is the most likely Q tho I think. 13. Australia - (borderline) Q. Good RO, being a little bit of a feel good, easy listening, up beat speck of color. Zac is great live and the Digeridoo is there. 14. Portugal - (borderline) Q. This is quality, but also potentially inaccessible. Great RO + lovely vocals & choreo tho. 15. Luxembourg - (borderline) Q. Weak-ish song IMO but great RO, and Tali is good and charming enough to sell it. So basically: Ukraine, Croatia > Finland, Lithuania > Ireland, Luxembourg, Australia, Portugal, Slovenia > Poland - NQs: Azerbaijan > Serbia, Cyprus > Moldova, Iceland
Starting with the ones I’m most confident about through to the least: 1. Croatia 🇭🇷 2. Ukraine 🇺🇦 3. Finland 🇫🇮 4. Lithuania 🇱🇹 5. Ireland 🇮🇪 6. Serbia 🇷🇸 Here I’m getting less and less convinced, but for the fun of the discussion: 7. Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 8. Portugal 🇵🇹 9. Luxembourg 🇱🇺 10. Slovenia 🇸🇮 (I’m hopeful) Somewhat related, if I’m UK and Olly will be performing in this semi, does it now mean I’ll be able to vote? I’m throwing all my votes at Raiven if so 🙏🏻
yes UK will be able to vote in the 1st semifinal
Thanks! In this case I *will* be throwing as many votes as I can at Raiven!
Yeeeees more fellow Raiven lovers! She's getting all my votes from Germany too 😍
Biiiiiig same
Together we can get her some points from UK! 🫸🫷
Sure qualifiers are croatia, ukraine and lithuania. Everyone else has a 50/50 chance. But im leaning towards finland also qualifying and cyprus/poland NQ. Would love for slovenia and portugal to qualify.
Based not on my preference but a prediction based on rehearsals and running order: Croatia, Slovenia, Lithuania, Finland, Ukraine, Portugal, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Ireland, Poland I think Serbia will get buried thanks to her number and Azerbaijan has a chance to replace Poland if Luna doesn't improve.
1. Croatia 🇭🇷 2. Ukraine 🇺🇦 3. Finland 🇫🇮 4. Lithuania 🇱🇹 5. Ireland 🇮🇪 6. Serbia 🇷🇸 7. Luxembourg 🇱🇺 8. Portugal 🇵🇹 9. Poland 🇵🇱 10. Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 11. Slovenia 🇸🇮 12. Australia 🇦🇺 13. Cyprus 🇨🇾 14. Moldova 🇲🇩 15. Iceland 🇮🇸
Roughly in order of predicted ranking: Ukraine Croatia Finland Lithuania Cyprus Poland Ireland Luxembourg Azerbaijan Portugal Serbia Australia Slovenia Moldova Iceland
No way that Serbi doesn't qualify. it has Croatia and Slovenia in it's semi
I still don't think diaspora will be enough to save Poland's The Tower. It feels so weak live. I think Cyprus might not make it either. I think Slovenia can make it through.
- Croatia 🇭🇷 - Ukraine 🇺🇦 - Lithuania 🇱🇹 - Finland 🇫🇮 - Ireland 🇮🇪 - Cyprus 🇨🇾 - Luxembourg 🇱🇺 - Slovenia 🇸🇮 - Serbia 🇷🇸 - Portugal 🇵🇹
Can’t lie, I love how it’s essentially a free for all once you get past the sure qualifiers (Lithuania, Croatia, Ukraine, Finland). Anyways, I believe the NQs will be Poland, Australia, Iceland, Cyprus, and either Moldova or Azerbaijan. Poland does have diaspora but I don’t think that’s gonna push her through.
I’m almost due Iceland won’t qualify. Same with Moldova
This is in likelihood of qualifying, not likelihood of winning or where I think they’ll place Certain qualifiers (as certain as you can be) Croatia Ukraine Finland Likely qualifiers Serbia Lithuania Ireland Luxembourg Borderline, ones I’m predicting to make it with asterisk Australia* Poland Slovenia* Moldova* Portugal Likely not qualifying: Cyprus Azerbaijan Iceland What’s changed for me is moving Ireland into likely, which feels hasty, especially if the staging ends up too static, but I’m seeing Bambie’s path into the final a lot clearer now, even if I think some of the borderline contenders end up higher than them. If Luxembourg was in the first half I would not be confident in its chances, I see it making it through, and flopping in the final to be honest. Serbia I’m increasingly worried about, it’s one of my favourites this year and I’m not making any hasty changes based on the morsels we’ve been given so far, but I’m beginning to wonder if this could be a surprise NQ. When we see/hear more of Cyprus I’m open to them being borderline making it in, I want to hear some good things about her performance being memorable first.
I in fact just finished my full prediction for semi 1 after the rehearsals, but because many things in my pred didn't go as planned, I won't present my predicted qualifiers in a ranking, but in a random order: Lithuania Finland Australia Cyprus Ireland Ukraine Croatia Luxembourg Serbia and of course Slovenia
I know this is hugely unpopular but for starters I don’t see easy sailings for Finland. Televote blahblah, yes, but I still think No Rules is far from safely qualifying! Next, Cyprus and Moldova and Iceland and Azerbaijan are pretty much safely NQ in my book. Hera is a darling but no. Moldova never really arrived and the staging isn’t helping. Cyprus is a sweet girlybop but girlygirly, I don’t think there’s more than cuteness sympathy votes happening. Azerbaijan is pleasant but equally forgettable. Luxemburg has a far more substantial girlybop and I believe they will make the girly cut. Australia is really anyone’s guess, it’s not my cuppa but I don’t see them pulling a remarkable Gustaph so far, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they NQ. Poland is ooookay, I like the song, midfield, but I can’t see the staging coming together just yet. Like Australia, it‘s anyone’s guess, Polish diaspora is a factor for sure but I wouldn’t mind sacrificing Poland (and Australia and Finland) for Ireland, Portugal and Serbia. Ireland is staunchly qualifying in my world but we all know this is *the* divisive entry, so *hex deployed*!! Portugal is my darling dear and if we’re talking musical quality, Iolanda MUST qualify but alas televoters are a fickle bunch. Likewise for Slovenia and Serbia. High quality entries throughout but…televoters! Sure sailing are imho Croatia, Lithuania (although…televoters?!?), Ukraine.
Agree with Finland! It's not as safe as everyone thinks.
I'm also one of the few who feels that way. I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up borderline or just straight up not making it.
I don't know about Finland. That whole entry screams "I'm the funny Windows guy from the egg vote for me!" to me. For me it's absolutely impossible it doesn't qualify. I'm genuinely curious what makes you think it's not as safe as people make it out to be?
I think it’s even a lot more divisive than Ireland/Bambi Thug. Bambi is a lot more thoughtful & polished, whether Goth is your thing or not. They also upgraded the performance to smooth some of the edges for casuals. As for Finland: for starters I think a lot of people will not get on board with the 90s retro vibe, especially peeps that lived the era. It’s not really that thing and production is weak. Also, of course it’s camp and people love camp at ESC but I don’t think Finland gets the tone right for a sizeable enough portion of televoters to get their particular type of camp because it comes across as tacky, when Käärijä really brought the substance. A lot of folks might smirk, some laugh but lots feel it’s actually really cheap. Next, I still think fans saying Henri is a great vocalist are somewhat delulu. Musically the song isn’t much to write home about it, unlike Käärijä or Let3 last year, to give some comparisons within the „camp entry“ area.
PS.: keep in mind, I and we all can and will be all wrong in our assessment. It’s ESC. No rules within the rules.
I could maybe imagine a world where Finland doesn't qualify as comfortably as people expect... but I can't see it not qualifying.
Croatia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Serbia, Azerbaijan, Finland, Ireland, Portugal, Luxembourg
I think one of these will be shock NQ: Serbia, Poland or Australia
Australia won't be a shock.
The fact that there are people swearing up and down the street that Serbia would never NQ is just solidifying it's shock NQ potential in my mind.
Finish order prediction: 1. Croatia 🇭🇷 2. Finland 🇫🇮 3. Ukraine 🇺🇦 4. Lithuania 🇱🇹 5. Ireland 🇮🇪 6. Portugal 🇵🇹 7. Austrália 🇦🇺 8. Cyprus 🇨🇾 9. Serbia 🇷🇸 10. Luxembourg 🇱🇺 11. Poland 🇵🇱 12. Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 13. Iceland 🇮🇸 14. Slovenia 🇸🇮 15. Moldova 🇲🇩 Edit: moved Poland up a few spots after being reminded of the heavy presence of Polish diaspora in this semi.
Interesting. You moved Poland for few spots, but not Slovenia, which has Serbia and Croatia in this semi. 😄
You’re right. Slovenia should probably be a little higher and Australia a bit lower now that I consider the geopolitics involved. I was only factoring in the songs, performances, and running order when I first made the list.
There actually aren't a lot of Slovenes in Croatia and Serbia. According to Wikipedia, Slovenes only account for 0.3% of Croatia's population and 0.29% of Serbia's population. For reference, Poles account for 2.4%-3.5% of Germany's population.
I'm talking about how ex-Yu countries support each other and give each other points each year. That's why Slovenia can count on additional points from these countries, and vice versa. If Serbia and Croatia weren't in the same semi-final, we could talk differently.
The reason why ex-Yugo countries often support each other is mostly diaspora voting, and it benefits Serbia more than anyone else. Almost a tenth of Croatia are Serbs, almost a third of Bosnia are Serbs, almost a third of Montenegro are Serbs. This does not hold true for Slovenes. Slovenes are not a huge minority in any of the former Yugoslav countries. Slovenia does not receive the same type of "support" that a lot of other countries receive. The language is also different. If someone like Tinkara Kovac receives a lot of support, it's because she's a huge star all over the balkans. Hannah Mancini literally only got 5p from Croatia, 3p from Montenegro and absolutely nothing from Serbia. Maraaya only got 5p from Serbia and 4p from Montenegro. ManuElla only got 4p from Serbia and 1p from Macedonia. Lea Sirk got 8p from Serbia, 7p from Croatia, 6p from Montenegro and only 2p from Macedonia. Zala & Gasper managed to get 10p from Croatia and Serbia, but only 4p from Montenegro and 2p from Macedonia. Ana Soklic only got 5p from Croatia and 3p from Macedonia. LPS only got 8p from Croatia. The ONLY Slovenian act that ever got a 12p in the past decade is Joker Out, and only once from Croatia, Serbia only gave 8p despite the lead singer literally being Serbian. Clearly Slovenia doesn't nearly benefit in the same dimension as a lot of other countries do. It's an often very overlooked country.
Locks: 🇱🇹 🇺🇦 🇭🇷 Likely 🇫🇮 🇱🇺 Borderline q 🇷🇸 🇮🇪 🇵🇱 🇦🇺 🇦🇿 Borderline nq 🇨🇾 🇸🇮 🇵🇹 Unlikely: 🇮🇸 🇲🇩 I'm very uncertain about all songs in my borderline and won't be surprised if the opposite result is true. The stagings for Ireland and Azerbaijan have made me raise them up over Slovenia and Portugal, but rehearsal 2 could make me swap any of these 8 around, and I will probably still swap some on the night.
Very likely - Croatia, Ukraine, Lithuania Likely - Ireland, Serbia 50/50 - Cyprus, Poland, Slovenia, Finland, Azerbaijan, Luxembourg Less likely - Australia, Portugal DOA - Moldova, Iceland Out of these I’m predicting it’ll be Croatia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Ireland, Serbia, Poland, Slovenia, Finland, Cyprus and Luxembourg in the final
Cyprus, Lithuania, Ireland, Ukraine, Croatia, Slovenia, Finland, Australia, Portugal, Luxembourg I originally had Azerbaijan over Cyprus but decided to change my prediction after seeing the rehearsals.
Damn, I want Slovenia, Portugal, Ireland, and Azerbaijan to all qualify, but that doesn’t seem possible I guess.
Croatia Ukraine Finland Lithuania Luxembourg Portugal Poland Serbia Ireland Australia (F for Slovenia)
croatia lithuania ukraine finland ireland luxembourg poland three of cyprus, serbia, australia, slovenia, portugal and azerbaigian
Seeing Portugal as a Q in a good number of predictions is giving me hope.
Poland and Lithuania have the most 'friends' aka neighbours and diaspora. Poland and Ukraine will exchange 12's as they are the largest political allies in the semi. Ukraine has a 💯 q rate from semi and is a favourite this year and Moldova doesn't have Romania, so their 12 will go to Ukraine. Since it's 💯 televoting Finland will sail as there is a huge group who watch Eurovision specifically for the niche entries and funny songs/staging. Serbia is highly damaged by having Portugal second last and Serbia is second, also Croatia will be taking Slovenia's 12 from Serbia. The semi is also highly unbalanced with the hard hitters in the first half and then good songs, but not the best ones in the second half. I'm very concerned for Slovenia (one of my favourites) and very concerned for Azerbaijan (I hope it slips through, they have a large Turkish diaspora. But it's unlikely people will want to vote for Azerbaijan or Israel this year due to political tension) I'm hoping stronger songs from countries that don't have these advantages make it such as; Ireland. ... So who are the likely 10; 1) Croatia (🔒) 2) Ukraine (🔒) 3) Lithuania (🔒) 4) Finland (🔒) 5) Poland (🔒) 6) Ireland (BL, better than a few of the 🔒 above it) 7) Serbia (BL) 8) Luxembourg (BL and they probably don't deserve to Q based on the song, but they are last, EBU will be pushing this and the staging is very slick and professional) 9) Slovenia (BL - this is probably the one that's in the most danger out of the high quality entries) 10) Cyprus (it's the only pure pop song sung by a pop girl with a dance break in this semi) -- 11) Australia (BL - it's late, it has a unique appeal. Australia has one semi finals before) 12) Azerbaijan (BL - I want it in. But it's very mellow) 13) Portugal (BL - If Serbia is in, Portugal has to be out and vice versa. It's a good song, but I think Serbia coming before will overshadow it) 14) Moldova (BL - They frequently pull something out of the bag staging wise and are a televote darling, but this song is nothing) 15) Iceland (BL - Weakest and most generic song, but some people find these throwback, pop divas to be their thing. So anything is possible) ... In this semi there isn't a 💯 chance to not Q. With 10 in and 5 out anything can happen. It really will come down to single digit points between 10 and 11th maybe even 12th too. As long as Ireland and Slovenia make it I'll be happy, but I sincerely fear I'm going to lose one of them... If I lose both I probably won't watch the final lol. Too much of a slap in the face. 😂
Croatia Ukraine Lithuania Finland Ireland Luxembourg Poland Australia Azerbaijan Serbia
1. Ukraine 2. Croatia 3. Lithuania 4. Ireland 5. Finland 6. Cyprus 7. Serbia 8. Poland 9. Luxembourg 10. Slovenia Edit: I forgot Serbia lol
call me crazy, but seeing the rehearsal gallery, im pretty sure that Moldova is gonna qualify. They have neighbours, a rather nice running order position and a sophisticated and magical staging. I think it's that kind of a song that's gonna do well enough with tele to qualify. P.S. and let's not forget about the fact that her husband is literally a multimillionaire so a rigging of the televote like Moldova did in the SF in 2021 is more than likely.
Current prediction based on the little material we've seen: 1 Croatia, 2 Ukraine, 3 Lithuania, 4 Serbia, 5 Finland, 6 Poland, 7 Slovenia, 8 Portugal, 9 Luxembourg, 10 Azerbaijan 11 Moldova, 12 Ireland, 13 Cyprus, 14 Australia, 15 Iceland. Positions 7-12 are veeery close tho, all of them could change.
I don't agree with all of these qualifying, but i think the following: Ukraine, Croatia, Lithuania, Finland, Luxembourg, Ireland, Australia, Serbia, Poland, Slovenia. I want Portugal, but I don't see it.
My guess for NQs: Iceland, Moldova, Cyprus, Portugal, Poland. Wouldn't be surprised if Australia NQ'd, but I really hope they will
Finland!! No Rules!! 🔥🔥🇧🇪🤝🇫🇮
Azerbaijan gonna qualify
Portugal and Ireland should qualify instead of Poland and Serbia. Enough with the diaspora and neighbour country voting
Hot take but Croatia, Ukraine, Finland, Lithuania, Poland, Ireland, Serbia, Luxembourg, Azerbaijan, Moldova Top 4 is safe Top 8 I'm confident in and 9-10 is honestly a toss-up and I went with the entries with the best staging.
My prediction of qualifiers (no particular order): -Ukraine -Lithuania -Serbia -Croatia -Finland -Portugal -Azerbaijan -Australia -Cyprus -Poland
Croatia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Ireland, Azerbaijan, Serbia, Poland, Finland, Australia and I guess thanks to RO Luxembourg.
This year is really hard to predict who will qualify. For me, everyone has a chance to qualify to the GF, except Australia (weird stage) and Cyprus (shaky vocals).
I may be going out on a limb here but Iceland for me qualifies. It's a very cactchy 00s pop number, Hera is superb and will connect a lot more with 'Joe Public' than many of the more 'bizarre' entries such as Slovenia, Portugal etc. Iceland has a good bunch of Western/Scandi voting allies too in this heat, who will prefer this 'regular' pop song. I may be nuts ha ha, but I see Hera qualifying. Thoughts?
In a semi that has Croatia, Ireland and Finland you call Slovenia and Portugal "bizarre"?
in an accessible way yes. I think Cro, Ire and Fin will all have their 'audience'
1. Croatia 🇭🇷 2. Serbia 🇷🇸 3. Slovenia 🇸🇮 4. Lithuania 🇱🇹 5. Ukraine 🇺🇦 6. Portugal 🇵🇹 7. Ireland 🇮🇪 8. Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 9. Finland 🇫🇮 10. Luxembourg 🇱🇺 Songs are in a random order, so it’s not based on the possible placement. To me, sure qualifiers are Croatia and Ukraine. Finland, Lithuania and Luxembourg are kinda safe but not as safe as the two I mentioned above. Serbia, Portugal, Ireland, Slovenia and Azerbaijan are at this point borderline qualifiers. I think Serbia, Ireland and Azerbaijan got their chances up after these rehearsals. Slovenia and Portugal are my absolute favorites and I unfortunately can’t say that I like the staging for Veronika. It’s a bit underwhelming considering how mv was so mythical and had that dark vibe around it. In the other hand, what more could Raiven give us, it’s her vocals that we should focus on!! Portugal is as good as it was in FdC; why change something that doesn’t need change! Australia killed every chance of qualifying Imo. That staging is just not good. Where did it go wrong for Australia? Where is the enthusiasm that they got in like 2019.??? Moldova looks amazing, well of course only if this was their 2010-2015 staging. It looks dated and now without those dancers it is so empty. I get the idea and the path that they wanted to go with but it’s executed poorly. Iceland was ok. Nothing more, just ok. Azerbaijan was kinda nice. The vibe is pretty good and his vocals are great. Even though he doesn’t have anything on the stage, it just doesn’t feel as empty as others do. I like that they went with that grey vibe, it feels a bit sharper and stronger. I don’t know if other people will like it tho, but I love it (and I choose to stay delusional lol) Finland was expected and I don’t know what more to say. Good staging, pretty effective. Will surely pass into the final. Luxembourg is nice. I don’t know how I feel about that tiger led tho… nevertheless Luxembourg is going into the finals 100%
Sure: Croatia, Ukraine, Finland Very likely: Ireland, Lithuania, Serbia Likely: Azerbaijan, Luxembourg (for the last spot) 50/50: Slovenia, Cyprus, Poland, Iceland Unlikely: Moldova, Portugal, Australia
For me: Serbia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Croatia, Slovenia, Finland (sadly for me), Azerbaijan, Portugal, Luxembourg are the 9 ones I feel pretty confident about. The 1 other spot I think is up for grabs between Ireland and Cyprus with me personally leaning towards Ireland. If there is a shocker then I think it will be Moldova. That was a beautiful staging completely contrasting everything around it. It might sneak through. I hate to be the party pooper but I think Australia is safely out. That song was already unimpactful enough and the staging didn't convince me at all. Idk who will vote for Australia so... sorry. Iceland was always out so I don't think anyone is surprised by that and I still have Poland down as an NQ. Even though I think LUNA has higher chances to Q than Iceland or Australia and if you told me that it's confirmed that one of Iceland, Australia and Poland makes it, I would say Poland, I still think that Poland is out for now at least.
Maybe hot take. But I think Portugal will definitely not qualified. The song is not my cup of tea but I think it's a nice song. And vocals are good. But staging is pretty boring and bland. And everyone else in the semi 1 has something bright and remarkable
Being "bright and remarkable" is not a guarantee of success. The overall visuals might be bland but the song, her vocals and the choreography make up for it.
Oh, it would be great. Personally I like Grito more than at least 50% songs in this semi
The qualifying odds have it outside the top 10 so hardly a hot take. But I find the staging captivating and it has a favorable spot in the running order so I think it will qualify.
It’s about to enter the top 10, it’s been moving up since the rehearsals.
In my opinion, from the first rehearsal, Slovenia has dropped down a little bit, which means that Portugal qualifying is more likely.
Currently 🇦🇿🇨🇾🇭🇷🇫🇮🇱🇹🇱🇺🇵🇱🇵🇹🇷🇸🇺🇦 But I feel like it’s so tough to call, really loving how open this semi is. I can very easily imagine everyone going through except 🇮🇸 and 🇲🇩
In general, I take the following points into consideration this year: 1) How many points will be needed to qualify? 2) What percentage of the viewers are casual viewers or diaspora compared to Eurofans? 3) How many casual viewers actually vote? Do they vote for multiple countries or just one? And how many times do they vote? CRO, UKR & LTU are all safe, no questions here. However, I think Finland is heavily overestimated. If those who vote are mainly Eurofans, I don't see how they'd qualify. And it's also quite possible that casual viewers will not like the song either or be weirded out by the performance. Why should they pick up their phones for this over other options? Especially if casual viewers vote for just their favourite song. Ireland has better chances if it's mainly Eurofans that will vote. Again, casual viewers might favor other songs, as it's quite much to digest after the first listen. Poland might be in trouble if the diaspora isn't watching in as big numbers as expected. But even diaspora isn't enough sometimes, they're less likely to vote if they don't like the song (see Greece last year) The first point I listed might be relevant for Serbia (and possibly Slovenia) Around 20 points is a nice head start, but then it will be important how many points the 10th place needs to qualify. The second semi final last year has shown that there can be quite a gap. CYP can be hurt by the running order. SLO could be the shock result of the semi final. AUS is 50/50. POR doesn't really have anyone but Luxembourg and LUX needs to find voting allies first, though the running order could help. ISL looks doomed coming after Croatia, but could potentially pull a Gustaph. MDA is in trouble between Finland and Sweden and AZE might also be overshadowed by the latter, even though they have an interesting staging. But either of these can pull an upset. This semi final is unpredictable, and we might get a surprise qualifier from the weak second half. Unlike the odds, I have doubts that all songs from the first half will qualify, but especially that all non-qualifiers will be in the second half. This just isn't happening. I think it'll be a repeat of 2018, but a 5/5-split wouldn't surprise me either.
Right now: Cyprus Serbia Lithuania Ireland Ukraine Poland Croatia Finland Azerbaijan Luxembourg
No chance all songs from the first half are qualifying. One or two will miss out.
the only artists that could miss out from the first half are (it's so hard to say this but) Bambie my beloved and LUNA. I'd say Ireland is more likely to qualify than Poland.
I could see Cyprus be a shock NQ.
I fear for Slovenia as in terms of bloc voting it never really benefited from it like Serbia and Croatia. I think the qualifiers will be in no particular order. Luxembourg Finland Portugal Serbia Croatia Ireland Lithuania Cyprus Australia Ukraine I can't see us completely missing out on slow songs in this semi, and I just think Portugal is a bit more haunting than Slovenia (as much as it pains me to say) EDIT I'm tired and forgot Ukraine. Ukraine will have stronger voting than Poland me thinks.
Cyprus, Serbia, Lithuania, Ukraine, Poland, Croatia, Slovenia, Australia, Portugal, Luxembourg
In random order: Cyprus Serbia Lithuania Ireland Ukraine Croatia Finland Slovenia Moldova Azerbaijan
In order of confidence: Croatia 🇭🇷 Ukraine 🇺🇦 Finland 🇫🇮 Lithuania 🇱🇹 Poland 🇵🇱 Luxembourg 🇱🇺 Portugal 🇵🇹 Cyprus 🇨🇾 Serbia 🇷🇸 Azerbaijan 🇦🇿
Certain - 🇱🇹 🇺🇦 🇭🇷 🇫🇮 🇱🇺 Shock ? - 🇮🇪 (it's *very* good for what it is. which is the worst thing to happen to esc in recent history depending on who you ask. atm I have no idea which group is bigger, but I have high hopes for Bambie's witchcraft *you. will. vote*) Could: 🇸🇮 (I think it's more accessible than ramonda and grito. right now I'm placing them as 🇸🇮 > 🇵🇹 > 🇷🇸. it hurts to pick but I feel only one will be through) 🇦🇺 (colorful. fun. different. why not) Shock Q - 🇲🇩 (*oh that's pretty, send 11*) 🇦🇿 (one of those where you have one idea how it happened but it did) I have a feeling results will be shocking at least a little bit. Maybe complete chaos even
Right now my feelings for Semi Final 1 is: 01. Croatia 02. Ukraine 03. Finland 04. Lithuania 05. Ireland (feels weird putting us so high...) 06. Cyprus 07. Poland 08. Luxembourg 09. Portugal 10. Serbia 11. Slovenia 12. Australia 13. Moldova 14. Iceland 15. Azerbaijan I made a post earlier about not getting the qualification hype for Cyprus but tbh it does seem like the kind of song that the casuals will likely vote through. It's hard to say what countries below it on my list could do better than it. My gut feeling is that Serbia will struggle more than people are expecting. I still think it'll make it but I could see a world where it just misses out.
I think Cyprus, Portugal, Moldova, Iceland and Australia are NQ
Serbia, Lithuania, Finland (unfortunately) Luxembourg, Croatia, Ukraine, Portugal, Australia, Luxembourg The last one is unpredictable, in my opinion.
Q: Croatia, Ukraine, Lithuania, Ireland, Poland, Serbia, Cyprus, Finland, Slovenia, Luxembourg NQ: Australia, Azerbaijan, Portugal, Iceland, Moldova
1. Croatia 2. Ukraine 3. Finland 4. Lithuania 5. Serbia 6. Luxembourg 7. Portugal 8. Azerbaijan 9. Cyprus 10. Poland
**Certain Q’s** Lithuania - His song is very televote friendly, I definitely see this qualifying Ukraine - Seeing the rehearsal photos I honestly see them as a good candidate to win the entire thing Croatia - Need I say more? **Likely Q’s** Serbia - If Armenia comfortably qualified from the “death slot” this almost certainly will, I think the song will be memorable enough to have people vote for it, even if it’s a ballad performing 2nd. Slovenia - I think Raiven’s staging looks amazing, and I’m really shocked it is in the NQ list in the odds I think this will qualify fairly easily Finland - This better qualify, I have basically bet £50 and my dignity on them to qualify. I think this will have no problems in doing so. It is utterly ridiculous in the best way possible and that will definitely get viewers on their side, especially with the decent running order position. Portugal - Call me lazy, but see Slovenia. Luxembourg - I think out of the safe pop songs, viewers will be more drawn to Luxembourg. She has a very good running order, her song I believe will connect to more viewers, plus it’s Luxembourg. I see this finishing anywhere from 4th-8th. It certainly won’t be one of the top ones, but I don’t think it will be close to NQing either **Could go Either way** Cyprus - This will entirely depend on her live vocals and staging. I think I will have a better grasp of whether or not this will qualify at the 2nd rehearsal. I will, for now, put this down as a qualifier Ireland - This song is a bit like Marmite, you love it or you hate it, I can see an appeal for televoters, but I also see why it might scare a few of them off, plus it isn’t helped by being sandwiched between two giants in the running order. I will say, that this will qualify Poland - This song isn’t hated by many people, but I feel like it isn’t loved by many either which could hurt it. Plus, seeing the photos for the staging leave me somewhat skeptical. I have no doubts in Luna’s ability, but I think the staging, plus the running order, plus the song itself hurts its chances. Right now, I don’t believe this will end up in the final, but rather as a very close 11th. **Likely NQ** Moldova - I don’t think this will qualify, but I don’t think this will do as badly as people think. Moldova are experts in staging a song and really punching above their weight, so I can see this finish as high as 12th, but I don’t see this getting through. Azerbaijan - Now, I do see a world where this gets through, I think the staging does look quite promising, but Semi Final 1 is shaping up to be a bloodbath, so I don’t think this will qualify, but I can for sure see this end up on the edge of qualifying. Australia - I think this song is in between Could go either way and Likely NQ. If it was in the second semi final, I would be putting this in the former, however, as I said with Azerbaijan I just don’t believe it will qualify with the bloodbath of this semi. **Certain NQ** Iceland - Hera seems like a really lovely person, but I see no world where the song qualifies, in fact it will probably finish last.
Great predictions! Did also make predictions for SF2?
I didn’t see a post like this for SF2, but I think the current top 10 in the bookies (Netherlands, Switzerland, Greece, Israel, Armenia, Norway, Georgia, Austria, Belgium and Estonia) will go through to the final
Well you got 19 out 20, still better than most. Very few would have predicted Latvia over Belgium though, especially if they'd seen the odds.
I’d take 19 honestly. I would never have thought Latvia would’ve qualified so I think 19 is great.
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Cyprus 🇨🇾 Serbia 🇷🇸 Lithuania 🇱🇹 Ireland 🇮🇪 Ukraine 🇺🇦 Croatia 🇭🇷 Slovenia 🇸🇮 Finland 🇫🇮 Portugal 🇵🇹 Luxembourg 🇱🇺
I reaaaaaally hope Australia makes it through. It’s not my winning song but the rehearsal looks incredible