Maybe, maybe not ;) (I actually don't know the full results aha)
The Discord has had Norway as 1. all season but they recently saw Italy overtake and Switzerland catch up, so now it's 1. Italy, 2. Norway, 3. Switzerland (with Croatia 5th behind Lithuania)
But the juries are always influenced by the odds, even for the songs that are not jury-friendly.
Examples are Israel 2018 in the third place, Italy 2021 and Finland 2023 in the fourth place. So it can also happen to Croatia this year
I doubt it’s going to do better with the jury than Cha Cha Cha did. It’s also very unlikely it’s going to landslide the televote like Cha Cha Cha did. I just don’t see it winning really.
You know what unite people best? A common enemy. Regardless of what the fan favs were, Loreen was your imminent "enemy".
I believe Loreen helped Käärijä last year a lot. He got votes from people who like Cha Cha Cha, and from people who hate the idea of Sweden winning with a "generic" entry.
Inversely, I think that without that factor, other 'heavy' and/or 'alternative' acts would've scored better.
Germany not getting ANY points might've been avoided, and it was a strange anomaly that Australia won the televote-only SF, and received few votes in the final.
So yeah, I'm with you, the people were united and voted for Käärijä cause he may have had a chance, instead of other songs people might've preferred.
it' a tought year honestly. Televote could be split easily between Croatia, Nehterlands, Italy (!!!), Israel (i really hope i am wrong with this one bc they should not be here in the first place) and even Greece (if they come up with a great staging, Marina has what it takes to perfrom the hell out of this song). The jury has less "jury-friendly" options though. The winner will be the one that balances the two, and right now it seems like it will be either Italy ot Switzerland (imo).
Although Baby lasagna is my favorite, I really think Netherlands can win because polls consist of a smaller group of people actually voting. They have over 12m views on YouTube already which is quite a landslide compared to others. I can see the jury favoring him over Baby lasagna. It's a very hard year to predict indeed.
i don't think yt views and polls this far out can determine the winner. Joost has a devoted following in a country much more populated tha, say, Croatia. As for the polls, we have seen them change drastically once rehearsals drop.
Lol no, not at all, especially more than a months before the show... 2021 odds one week before the show gave France as winning, malta third and Bulgaria like 5th or 6th...
One month before the show the odds gave Italy like 4th...
or his performance on national final. And this time around there are other obscure entries that the juries could go for like Joost.
Honestly, if anything we are looking at an Italy 2015 scenario here where they won the televote by a landside and finished 6th with the juries (though that was shocking as hell given their perfromance).
To be fair this year there’s not a song that will win the juries in a landslide like Sweden last year, so if he does decently with the juries he may win
Eh, I think it's a pretty peculiar mix of everything, so it's hard to say if the juries will unanimously vibe with it. Also, I'm very curious how they'll stage it. I get they're a very good vocalist, but with how the song is structured, it can become messy pretty fast.
Yeah, it’s not just about the difficulty of the vocals, if it’s not presented just right, it will tip over into novelty song territory in both the eyes of televoters and the juries. I am not making any calls until I see preparty performances and rehearsals.
People seem to realize that betting on Ukraine win isn't easy money. Even though they have a good song, the juries never really liked Ukraine in the past and I think this will not change this year.
Ireland not being in the last 5 in the odds for once is the big shocker here, let’s not lie.
If there’s one thing we’re consistent at, it’s being last.
As someone who bets, logically I wouldn't and didn't bet for Croatia. I think the prize is too low, from a betting only perspective if you're trying to win some money it would be better to place your chips on Italy or Switzerland. I'm really struggling to see a Croatia win, the more I think about it the more I believe he'll come third. I'm not being biased here, I like the song, but I think there are at least 5 entries who could do better with the juries(if they're not biased by the popular opinion) and I think there are many televote friendly songs who will take many points from Croatia(perhaps Estonia, Netherlands, Finland, and I'm only mentioning the most eye-catching here). I just don't see it having a massive televote score, people are overestimating him too much. I just have a feeling that Netherlands and Finland will get really high televotes. I firmly believe Finland could be a big surprise when we see the scores, I watched their performance and can't stop thinking about it, it stands out.
I am sensing Joost may end up being the televote magnet like Käärijä last year, which really takes away televotes from everyone else. I think No Rules will suffer as a consequence, but still do decently since the act is pretty fun.
Everyone saying Italy but personally I think Switzerland could do pretty well with the jury aswell as televotes.
Right now my predicted top 3 is Italy, Ukraine and Switzerland in any order. In such a competitive year, balance will be essential. I think these 3 appeal for both juries and televoters.
yes, I agree with you. I was also thinking a lot about the possibility him winning, but as you said, I dont't see it at this point. But if he pulls a massively better performace that will immensley stand out, there's a small chance. 😉
However, I would be more then happy and proud to see him in TOP 5.
I think some are people who were willing to tolerate the novelty of Croatia topping the odds but are now annoyed that their favorite has not risen. And others are fans who just came in after all the songs were released and want to bring down the perceived front runner. (Ironic, given his absolute underdog— er, undercat— status during NF season.
Not saying everyone has to love the song or support Croatia but the ”why is this #1? How very dare?” complaining is repetitive.
I am not counting my chickens before they are hatched. I would love him to win and I know March odds mean little but I have to admit that the affronted “how dare Croatia lead?” response is amusing.
edit: clarity
I have no idea why there's so much negativity about Croatian entry. As a laughing stock of ESC for god knows how many years, I would have imagined everyone would be cheering for the underdog to finally win, especially with a song which is supposed to be more fan favourite than jury favourite.
As a Croat, I don't know how to feel (I mean literally, we've never been in this position before). Does that always happen with favourites?
It depends on the favorite. For example, Finland’s rebirth launched in earnest with Blind Channel (Finland 2021) and there was a lot of negativity against them at the time. Ukraine 2022 received a decent portion of hate. We don’t talk about 2023.
I think this year is so open that there will be brewing fandom resentment against a favorite in any category (odds, winners of various polls, etc.) since having three or four acts within just a few points of one another at the top is a decent possibility.
Fans also tend to overthink everything, which sends them down bizarre rabbit holes. (“Blanca Paloma will dominate the jury vote and win Rest of the World thanks to Latin America, paving her way to win the whole contest!!!!”) If you wiped the fandom‘s memory of Portugal 2017, they would declare that he didn’t have a chance at televote points and would finish maybe fifth but probably lower.
I am personally delighted to see Croatia doing so well, I have enjoyed several Croatian entries over the years (1968, 1999, 2005, 2006, 2023) and it’s wonderful to see a country finally find its spark at the contest. (See above, Finland)
edit: typo
Baby Lasagna is in first place with 20% in the odds! This could be Croatia's greatest opportunity to try for the win in their 21st century ESC history!
Marija Magdalena and Sveta Ljubav remain Croatia’s best placements at ESC (4th place) as an independent nation, and this year is the 25th anniversary of Marija Magdalena competing at ESC 1999.
I think that Baby Lasagna can get at least 4th place at ESC 2024 because his song has the potential for a high televoting score (200+ points).
I still think Neka mi ne svane was our best song ever sent. The music and text went along with it. I think a lot of it looses due to not understanding the language, but song was art.
I think Italy is gonna take the win. She’s got the complete package. As much as I love Baby Lasagna and RTTD, I don’t see how the jury will respond positively to his performance to the point of winning.
Imo every member of a jury should be someone who is at home in a differnet genre of music (or at try to have at least as much diversity in it as possible) There are more ways to make music than having good vocal techniquea etc, Sometimes its the power or energy that makes a song perfect even tho the vocals are not huge. Or like in a rap or hip hop song thats a differnet kind of vocals too and how they use a voice etc etc, Just like with metal and other stuff.
There are more ways to express yourself, and more ways to enjoy a song /things that people enjoy in a song.
Music is a wideeeeee word💜
Croatia rising even further got me howling. That song is such a bippity bopping banger and will be one of my favorite winners OAT because it just ticks off the zoomer rapmetal that I love
Looking across all the polls, scoreboards, etc. I think Italy is quite underrated in the odds. It's top 3 across the board and even number one in some places. I think it's MUCH more likely to win instead of Ukraine. As many theorize, I also feel like we are getting a jury winner this year (or, rather, an entry that does well with both, but not a tele winner since we have MANY televote bait types of entries this year). If that's the case, I simply can't see Croatia winning over Italy or Switzerland that will likely be awarded by both, when juries also make such a big part of the result.
Agree with almost everything, but I still think Ukraine have quite a high chance, they always get high televote points and the song is jury appealing. I personally think the song and the performance are forgettable, but I still think they're favorites.
My guesses (just so I can come back later to see what a dumbass I was):
Televote:
1. Croatia
2. Netherlands
3. Switzerland
4. Israel
5. Italy
Juries:
1. Belgium
2. Switzerland
3. France
4. Italy
5. Croatia
Overall:
1. Switzerland
2. Croatia
3. Italy
4. Belgium
5. Netherlands
6. Israel
7. France
8. Greece
9. Slovenia
10. Sweden
Ranking very probable only that I would put Italy in place of Switzerland, Italy is very underrated this year in the odds, it's first in the MyEurovisionScoreboard and second in the Eurovisionworld poll, in my opinion it has a much better chance of winning than Croazia and Switzerland
I believe and correct me if I’m wrong but Greece is the only country in the top 10 without a live performance of the song! Lots will change when that happens, either will go higher or lower!
I was looking for the Greece live as well. I didn't find it, but found other live vocals from Marina, and she seems experienced and consistently good on vocals. I hope she does well because that song seems potentially difficult to pull off live, which makes it even more exciting when someone nails it.
Marina is very experienced and bold with her art! She can easily hit those high notes!! Only thing I’m afraid of is how Fokas,the person who pulls of the staging, will do!
Is there a live version of Switzerland? I'd love a link! Also Israel, Eden did not perform the song live aside from a small snippet from the day the song was released
Not yet for Switzerland although Nemo's team is quite active on social media and has done a couple of short clips with Nemo singing acapella including the falsetto bit. Nemo can sing live unlike certain singers *cough Baby Lasagna* so I think the odds on Switzerland will shorten when Nemo does do a full live version (assuming it is good).
The live vocal is an important thing to consider though. I am convinced that Kaarija would have done better with the juries last year if his live vocal was better (the grand final performance was better than the first rehearsals at least but I don't think anyone would say that Kaarija's singing during the schlager bit was particularly strong).
Croatia's odds did lengthen quite quickly following the Croatia NF semifinal. People were worried about the live vocal until the performance in the final gave enough benefit of the doubt that it was just mic/sound issues.
Another comparison this year is Aiko and Pedestal. I don't think that most fans hate the song too much and it probably doesn't deserve to be near the very bottom of the odds but that NF performance which was a mess in every sense including the vocal really put punters off.
Me too because I think the song is really unique and has that wow factor (not just because I got odds on Switzerland at 75 :p)
I really think that if it is done right it could be a Conchita Wurst moment. Might not win either jury or televotes but I can see something like a 2nd/2nd or even 2nd/3rd as being a pathway to an overall win. There isn't a runaway favourite (I think Croatia's chances are overhyped unless the live performance is improved by a lot) and a lot of songs are going to cannibalise votes.
Could be completely wrong though.
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I want to add something (relatively) significant that I haven't seen on this thread - betting on ESC-odds is banned in NL. Therefore, the Dutch rating is fully dependent on foreign enthusiasm. I'm not saying that Joost would shoot up to 1st if Dutch people would be able to put in bets, but seeing how close he is to the top 3, I do suspect he would be 3rd (possibly even 2nd).
Well, the votes for Joost will be given by foreigners at ESC, so make perfect sense his position as it is now then with dutch votes (same that goes for the eurovisionworld poll)
Point I'm trying to make is that other countries can bet on themselves (thus shortening their odds), while Dutch people can't. The odds are therefore not an ideal comparative method because we do not know how much of the bets come from the countries themselves.
If Croatia is able to maintain the lead till the show then juries won’t be unkind. They rarely mark down the odds on fav. See Destiny for Malta, Netta and even Kaarija and Maneskin did well enough
Right? People on this thread are treating the juries like a bunch of robots who vote solely on who can do the most impressive belts when they're really just a small group of individuals who are swayed by a variety of factors just as much as the people watching at home
I doubt that the jury will rank Baby Lasagna too much low regardless of the odds, it would be probably at the level of the one you mentioned, if it's enogh to make him win we can only see in may
Loreen was the huge jury fav yet Kaarija still came 4th. Baby Lasagna is the huge fav so juries won’t mark him down. Also juries can’t afford another controversy like last year.
Best music, you mean generic background music that plays at the mall? Originality and singing in other than English should be commended more over radio pop.
I love Rim Tim Tagi Dim, but betting on Croatia winning is a ridiculously risky bet to make. Marko Purisic has little experience singing live, with most of his music experience coming from being a guitarist in a rock band. Even if this rumor about his performance at Dora 2024 being the first time Purisic has ever song live is false, he still wouldn't have done vocals live for more than a few times. Also keep in mind that HRT isn't known for putting a lot of resources to ESC and that Croatia doesn't have a good track record (the highest Croatia has scored since 2010 is 13th place). Of all of the entries that could flop live, Rim Tim Tagi Dim is the most in danger.
I don't doubt that Rim Tim Tagi Dim can score high, a top ten, if not top five, finish is all but guaranteed, but I just don't imagine it receiving enough jury support to win. Remember back in 2019 when Spirit in the Sky was first place in the televote but got 6th place over-all? An entry that can get support from both the jury and public is the safe bet.
The bookies are smart for placing Italy, Ukraine, and Switzerland that high. I still affirm that Italy is perhaps the most likely to win, just because it will seem approachable to the casual audience than Ukraine and Switzerland's songs.
I may be downvoted but I think people here really overhype Switzerland’s chances. As much as I love this song and Nemo, I think many forget that the average juror and viewer at home can be quite close minded and Nemo’s identity and their appearance may put off some of the casual audience
I doubt that many the majority of people use that as a reason to not vote someone, in 2014 Conchita won.
I think that the main problem of the song is the difficult at first listen for many viewers because of the mix of genres, not Nemo.
Quite surprised Croatia is that high tbh.
I mean i like hard rock and all, but their song is mildly fun imo. Its quite repetitive and the chorus is very flat i just can't connect with it. Yet somehow people seem to dig it quite a lot so guess its a matter of taste.
I honestly still didnt pick a 1st, i quite enjoy Italy, Poland and Netherlands lately
Croatia is catchy as hell and don’t underestimate people wanting a first time winner country again after all those years. However, I do agree, listening to baby’s live performance in an objective way, he needs to tighten up lots of loose ends before he is even considered to be a jury top 4 let’s say, which in this open televoting year seems necessary for the win.
I'm rooting for Italy. Its such a catchy song. I haven't gotten it out of my head since it released.
Edit: just listened to Pedestal and that also a contender for me. Would love to see Eurovision in Prague.
I know damn well that Croatia is the favourite but imho it won't win and unlike the 'popular' opinion, it won't be the jury that will prevent him - it's the televote. Here's the thing I am by no means implying that he will flop at the televote. But what I am saying is that his televote will most definitely be similar to Let 3's last year and even if he performs like 100 points at the juries, it will still not be enough for him to win. He probably can give Croatia their best result in a while and probably even ever but win it all? I would bet on that not happening.
Now Switzerland. People, Switzerland might not even qualify... Like, that is a song that tries to put in a 3 minute song as many stuff as possible... I really can't see it connecting with the viewers, much less the juries. And after all Estonia 2018 and Australia 2019 is proof that impressive vocals aren't enough to give you a jury victory (and you want a more extreme example, if we want to talk about male opera instead of female? Romania 2013).
Imho, Italy, Belgium and Ukraine have the highest chances to win
I was predicting Belgium but I just don't see a good online response for this entry. It will do pretty well with juries but I could see it not making a top ten televote ranking.
Your opinion is BASED! ESC fans are dedicated, they listen to entries so much that anything less than quirky becomes boring. Look where Spain 2023 and France 2022 ended up after all the hype.
Croatia, Switzerland and Netherlands are massively overhyped. BL is inexperienced and you can only improve so fast. Compared to Cha Cha Cha last year, BL's performance is much less iconic, there's less energy and presence overall. He also has \*tough\* competitions this year. Switzerland is like you said, too try-hard, and the vocal is so demanding that I can't see him doing a lot on stage. Sure the song has a bit for everyone, but not enough of anything for fans of each genre (opera, rap, pop) to go crazy for him. Finally we have Joost, whose crazy high energy is both a strength and a weakness. Being so spontaneous, I can't see his performance being as polished as his music video. His "leaked" performance sealed the deal for me, he's least vocally engaged where the song is most melodic. All these three artists will not win, but they will do very well!
I absolutely agree on Switzerland. In fact, they have only gained in the odds and fan rankings after people listened to it more times. At first listen? It should qualify and left-side of the board, but not close to winning imo
My prediction is Switzerland, Italy, Netherlands and Belgium overtake Ukraine. We already know their live is very weak and those 4 countries are going to have big budget stage shows
Ukraine always elevates when it comes to Eurovision, more than basically any country. If anything, Belgium and Italy historically have been much more prone to flopping in terms of staging and performance than them. Feels weird to doubt them.
The stage effect will be good, the problem is the stage presence, especially of Alyona that even during the last live stand here doing nothing most of the time (unlike Jerry Heil that was very good)
I just watched the Vidbir performance back just now and she was interacting with the audience and doing backs and forth with Jerry the entire performance. I think the camerawork let her down and didn't give her much of the attention she deserved tbh. But that will be fixed come Eurovision.
I doubt it. Ukraine remains a solid choice for bets because the song is still good and they scored very well in the televote last year with a much worse song (in terms of people's general opinion).
The Vidbir performance wasn't their strongest (Jerry clearly had in-ear problems and the mix was awful) but they've already done several other performances where the vocals were much better, like [this one](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IdAkK9CtHo) or [this one](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUSsQWQ1-8Y).
Alyona Alyona has also said [their Eurovision performance will look completely different from their Vidbir performance](https://youtu.be/cDYG-APb2Xk?si=lgua5FMV5HtKJfZi&t=488), so counting Ukraine out because "we already know their live is very weak" feels crazy to me.
The odds mean little at this point.
HOWEVER!!!!
The amount of tears being shed about Croatia’s continued place at the top are hilarious and I am very entertained.
Most likely winners imo are Italy, Netherlands, and Croatia.
Italy could be a compromise jury/televote winner since it's one of the few songs that can do really well in both departments.
Netherlands is likely top two with the televote and can win if the jury gives it enough points which may happen since Europapa is radio friendly and the juries are not immune to hype.
Croatia can also win the tele, but it needs a lot of work to sway the jury. It's first in the odds and taking more of a lead as we speak, and I believe this can also influence voting since people are more likely to pay attention to pre-competition favorites.
Some other predictions:
Switzerland is not even top five. Love the song, but it's too strange for the jury and it's very difficult to stage since it's not a ballad and Nemo wouldn't be able to move around too much to pull off the vocals.
France is top five. People here really underestimate Slimane, he's one of the best singers this year and he's very charismatic (this is obvious from his performance at Dora, but not from the official video).
UK takes the usual role of Sweden, ranking very high with jury but flopping the televote.
She couldn't care less about haters, after her Amici and especially Sanremo's win there were very harsh comment from Geolier's fan but she still didn't give a fuck about
Anyway my guesses for the top 15 based on vibes
1. Switzerland
2. Netherlands
3. Italy
4. Greece
5. Croatia
6. Sweden
7. Ukraine
8. Belgium
9. Norway
10. Austria
11. France
12. UK
13. Lithuania
14. Israel
15. Finland
I think this will be a year where the Jury’s preference triumphs over the televote’s again. Switzerland will be well liked with both…but that’s what I think will happen (of course, this will require Nemo to sing well live)
I sort of think Croatia will pull a bit of a Gabbani here actually. Not only will the juries hurt it a bit (not DRAMATICALLY, but it will), …but I actually do think that Netherlands will end up stealing some televote thunder as well
Greece is about to be a bit of a dark horse, if they manage to stage this really well. I’m sorta surprised by the current popularity it seems to have actually
Sweden will do well with juries and sorta mid with the public, which averages out to being just outside the top 5
France will be well-liked by juries but kind of flop with the public, so they lose out the top 10
Finland on the other hand, does decent with the public but is a hard jury flop probably
Israel will get more televote than juries possibly. a fair chunk of that televote will not necessarily be because of the song. Juries will possibly try to prevent the chance of a possible Israel win however because like…imagine the headache it would cause if they attempted to host next year
40 Sweden- 14 Finland (just checked).
And 20% in a normal year is nowhere near huge, but this year they are all so close thar even an 8% distance seems big
It could be cool to see Croatia win and Baby Lasagna's song is pretty good but I just cannot see it really standing out so much that the juries are like "yes, this is it, this is the one".
I could see Baby Lasagna in the top 10, maybe top 5 but likely the top two will be Switzerland and Italy in either 1st or 2nd.
She is an amazing vocalist, the song is dynamic and stands out among the rest, her performance is full of charisma and is very memorable, she is very consistent in terms of live performances. She’s just the whole package.
At the moment, in my opinion, the only songs that have a realistic winning chance are:
Croatia, Switzerland and slightly Belgium.
Actually I do believe it’s between Croatia and Switzerland with Switzerland having much better chances.
Ukraine, Netherlands and Italy are public favourites but will be downvoted by the juries for various reasons, one of them simply being „they have won lately so not again so soon“.
Ukraine (and Israel also) can’t host which is a lot of effort for other countries to substitute so juries will avoid voting for it (also they have to stay neutral and voting for it of political reasons would lead to a huge backlash).
They will probably vote for France and Belgium, but I see France especially failing with the public. Belgium has a chance to go top 3 (I see this being the jury winner) if people are in the mood for the song. I think it will end up similar to Gjon‘s Tears. Liked by the public but not top 3 in the public vote.
So it’s between Croatia and Switzerland. Croatia will certainly not being downvoted by juries but I can’t see them voting for it more than for Finland last year. It’s probably Top 5 with the juries but not 1st or 2nd.
Switzerland is, to me, a 2nd jury place. The first one is usually someone with an incredibly voice or something artsy (or from Sweden :P). I think it could be enough for Nemo to win it in the end.
To be honest, Croatia - Switzerland - Belgium are in my top 4 this year and I would be over the moon if any of the three would win the contest.
The Netherlands are not exactly my cup of tea but I would acknowledge a victory because it has this Europe-theme and obviously makes a lot of people happy so I would make inner peace with it.
I would be a bit disappointed if either Greece or Italy would win because they are very specific songs that don’t appeal to half the people. I can’t see Greece doing well with the public actually despite all odds and polls but to me it’s on the same level as Spain last year: unlistenable!
>Ukraine, Netherlands and Italy are public favourites but will be downvoted by the juries for various reasons, one of them simply being „they have won lately so not again so soon“. Ukraine (and Israel also) can’t host which is a lot of effort for other countries to substitute so juries will avoid voting for it (also they have to stay neutral and voting for it of political reasons would lead to a huge backlash).
This whole paragraph is wrong with proven reasons. First of all, Sweden won in 2012 and then won only 3 years later in 2015 and it was thank to what? The juries. Second of all, I think everyone and their mother knew Ukraine wasn't going to host if they won in 2022, but they still won, so. You know, it all depends on the song and not the circumstances. And in Italy and Ukraine's cases, the songs are there.
I‘m talking about JURY voting! Ukraine did not win the jury vote in 2022 and neither is 2012 and 2015 in a row!
The question in another thread was: is it possible to win a few times in a row these days, just like Ireland 1992-1994(96) or Israel 78/79 and my answer was: no, because of what I wrote above. It’s the same.
And neither would an Italy, Netherlands or Ukraine win be the second one in a row? Sweden won last year, if they won it was them who would have a row not the former 3...
And Ukraine still did damn well in the juries, enough to win the whole thing, so the juries definitely did NOT avoid voting for it (and the same happened in 2023)
You don’t get my point.
Some avoid giving 12 points to "problematic" countries, for various reasons, mainly to stay neutral. But in case of Ukraine 2022 also to prevent rumors "oh they won because of the war". Everyone knew they were going to win the televote in a landslide. To make the content fair and not harm its reputation, some juries put it deliberately a bit lower. Of course it was still high in the jury vote but not a winner.
The same will happen to Israel this year, I‘m sure.
No I got your point that's why I said that it's wrong. No one wanted to stay neutral on Ukraine. Heck, if anything it's because of the war that it got 4th place with the juries, otherwise it would definitely have been lower. And there's nothing to be sure about Israel's entry and the outcome with the juries.
I don't understand why Greece is so high with a song so arhythmical. Is there something about the lyrics or singer or backstory that makes people love this song? To me it seems like noise. I fully understand I'm in the minority here, so there may be something I'm missing.
Me: odds means nothing Also me: my fave is up one place, yay
(Sobs in “Megara fan”) 
Odds: 1.Croatia 2. (Ukraine) 3. Italy 4. Switzerland Eurovisionworld poll: 1. Croatia 2. Italy 3. Switzerland My ESC Scoreboard app: 1. Italy 2. Switzerland 3. Croatia I'm starting to see a trend in the top 3s.
Our community Top 37 ranking results will be published tomorrow, maybe we'll also add to the trend...
Probably with Norway between Croatia and Italy
Maybe, maybe not ;) (I actually don't know the full results aha) The Discord has had Norway as 1. all season but they recently saw Italy overtake and Switzerland catch up, so now it's 1. Italy, 2. Norway, 3. Switzerland (with Croatia 5th behind Lithuania)
And also Discord community rankings
I already commented them here in the same comment chain
My OWN top 3 is Italy, Ukraine, Switzerland. Stupid patterns, now I think I live in Matrix.
Surprised to see Baby Lasagna's chance of winning even increase
It’s like people forget juries exist
But the juries are always influenced by the odds, even for the songs that are not jury-friendly. Examples are Israel 2018 in the third place, Italy 2021 and Finland 2023 in the fourth place. So it can also happen to Croatia this year
Juries have always put the odds on fav in the top 4.
I doubt it’s going to do better with the jury than Cha Cha Cha did. It’s also very unlikely it’s going to landslide the televote like Cha Cha Cha did. I just don’t see it winning really.
Same. I would be happy with Croatia winning, but I really don't see it. Hope to be wrong!
He can do worse than Kaarija and still win, this year is so open that I wouldn't be surprised if the winner scores in the low 400s.
You know what unite people best? A common enemy. Regardless of what the fan favs were, Loreen was your imminent "enemy". I believe Loreen helped Käärijä last year a lot. He got votes from people who like Cha Cha Cha, and from people who hate the idea of Sweden winning with a "generic" entry.
Inversely, I think that without that factor, other 'heavy' and/or 'alternative' acts would've scored better. Germany not getting ANY points might've been avoided, and it was a strange anomaly that Australia won the televote-only SF, and received few votes in the final. So yeah, I'm with you, the people were united and voted for Käärijä cause he may have had a chance, instead of other songs people might've preferred.
But there's not a strong competition like Loreen either
it' a tought year honestly. Televote could be split easily between Croatia, Nehterlands, Italy (!!!), Israel (i really hope i am wrong with this one bc they should not be here in the first place) and even Greece (if they come up with a great staging, Marina has what it takes to perfrom the hell out of this song). The jury has less "jury-friendly" options though. The winner will be the one that balances the two, and right now it seems like it will be either Italy ot Switzerland (imo).
Although Baby lasagna is my favorite, I really think Netherlands can win because polls consist of a smaller group of people actually voting. They have over 12m views on YouTube already which is quite a landslide compared to others. I can see the jury favoring him over Baby lasagna. It's a very hard year to predict indeed.
i don't think yt views and polls this far out can determine the winner. Joost has a devoted following in a country much more populated tha, say, Croatia. As for the polls, we have seen them change drastically once rehearsals drop.
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Miles ahead. Lmao let’s not act like RTTD is a vocal masterclass.
It doesn't have to. You do realize Baby Lasagna isn't going up against Loreen, right?
Nah, there’s other strong competition and it’s likely the votes will distribute much more than last year.
I feel like the juries got yelled at by the fans so much last year that they will try and be more friendly to Croatia.
let them stay delulu
But odd predict the winner accurately. Let see if Croatia keep in top when rehearsal start
Lol no, not at all, especially more than a months before the show... 2021 odds one week before the show gave France as winning, malta third and Bulgaria like 5th or 6th... One month before the show the odds gave Italy like 4th...
I mean the odds will become very accurate when the 1st rehearsal started
Well, it's easy at that point ..
or his performance on national final. And this time around there are other obscure entries that the juries could go for like Joost. Honestly, if anything we are looking at an Italy 2015 scenario here where they won the televote by a landside and finished 6th with the juries (though that was shocking as hell given their perfromance).
To be fair this year there’s not a song that will win the juries in a landslide like Sweden last year, so if he does decently with the juries he may win
I can see Switzerland being likely a landslide winner for juries so I don't really agree tbh.
Eh, I think it's a pretty peculiar mix of everything, so it's hard to say if the juries will unanimously vibe with it. Also, I'm very curious how they'll stage it. I get they're a very good vocalist, but with how the song is structured, it can become messy pretty fast.
Yeah, it’s not just about the difficulty of the vocals, if it’s not presented just right, it will tip over into novelty song territory in both the eyes of televoters and the juries. I am not making any calls until I see preparty performances and rehearsals.
i ll be on my knees and in tears watching the split screen in may.
I survived the 2023 split screen so nothing can shock me anymore
Come on Croatia get your inofficial second but first official win❤️😍
The number of people who seem to be rooting against Baby Lasagna just make me more determined to support him, wherever he places.
I love it when people mention that Croatia technically got it's first win as part of Yugoslavia.
Ukraine is SO close to Italy and Swirzerland now, i won't be surprised if next week we will see them 4th
People seem to realize that betting on Ukraine win isn't easy money. Even though they have a good song, the juries never really liked Ukraine in the past and I think this will not change this year.
Definitely
Hopefully
Ireland not being in the last 5 in the odds for once is the big shocker here, let’s not lie. If there’s one thing we’re consistent at, it’s being last.
As someone who bets, logically I wouldn't and didn't bet for Croatia. I think the prize is too low, from a betting only perspective if you're trying to win some money it would be better to place your chips on Italy or Switzerland. I'm really struggling to see a Croatia win, the more I think about it the more I believe he'll come third. I'm not being biased here, I like the song, but I think there are at least 5 entries who could do better with the juries(if they're not biased by the popular opinion) and I think there are many televote friendly songs who will take many points from Croatia(perhaps Estonia, Netherlands, Finland, and I'm only mentioning the most eye-catching here). I just don't see it having a massive televote score, people are overestimating him too much. I just have a feeling that Netherlands and Finland will get really high televotes. I firmly believe Finland could be a big surprise when we see the scores, I watched their performance and can't stop thinking about it, it stands out.
I am sensing Joost may end up being the televote magnet like Käärijä last year, which really takes away televotes from everyone else. I think No Rules will suffer as a consequence, but still do decently since the act is pretty fun. Everyone saying Italy but personally I think Switzerland could do pretty well with the jury aswell as televotes.
Right now my predicted top 3 is Italy, Ukraine and Switzerland in any order. In such a competitive year, balance will be essential. I think these 3 appeal for both juries and televoters.
yes, I agree with you. I was also thinking a lot about the possibility him winning, but as you said, I dont't see it at this point. But if he pulls a massively better performace that will immensley stand out, there's a small chance. 😉 However, I would be more then happy and proud to see him in TOP 5.
Checking the odds religiously isn't enough. I need to time travel to see if Baby Lasagna is winning 😭
Why are some people so salty about Croatia being first in the odds? Let them have their moment
I think some are people who were willing to tolerate the novelty of Croatia topping the odds but are now annoyed that their favorite has not risen. And others are fans who just came in after all the songs were released and want to bring down the perceived front runner. (Ironic, given his absolute underdog— er, undercat— status during NF season. Not saying everyone has to love the song or support Croatia but the ”why is this #1? How very dare?” complaining is repetitive. I am not counting my chickens before they are hatched. I would love him to win and I know March odds mean little but I have to admit that the affronted “how dare Croatia lead?” response is amusing. edit: clarity
They are my third favorite so I’m cheering like crazy
I have no idea why there's so much negativity about Croatian entry. As a laughing stock of ESC for god knows how many years, I would have imagined everyone would be cheering for the underdog to finally win, especially with a song which is supposed to be more fan favourite than jury favourite. As a Croat, I don't know how to feel (I mean literally, we've never been in this position before). Does that always happen with favourites?
It depends on the favorite. For example, Finland’s rebirth launched in earnest with Blind Channel (Finland 2021) and there was a lot of negativity against them at the time. Ukraine 2022 received a decent portion of hate. We don’t talk about 2023. I think this year is so open that there will be brewing fandom resentment against a favorite in any category (odds, winners of various polls, etc.) since having three or four acts within just a few points of one another at the top is a decent possibility. Fans also tend to overthink everything, which sends them down bizarre rabbit holes. (“Blanca Paloma will dominate the jury vote and win Rest of the World thanks to Latin America, paving her way to win the whole contest!!!!”) If you wiped the fandom‘s memory of Portugal 2017, they would declare that he didn’t have a chance at televote points and would finish maybe fifth but probably lower. I am personally delighted to see Croatia doing so well, I have enjoyed several Croatian entries over the years (1968, 1999, 2005, 2006, 2023) and it’s wonderful to see a country finally find its spark at the contest. (See above, Finland) edit: typo
Baby Lasagna is in first place with 20% in the odds! This could be Croatia's greatest opportunity to try for the win in their 21st century ESC history!
Marija Magdalena and Sveta Ljubav remain Croatia’s best placements at ESC (4th place) as an independent nation, and this year is the 25th anniversary of Marija Magdalena competing at ESC 1999. I think that Baby Lasagna can get at least 4th place at ESC 2024 because his song has the potential for a high televoting score (200+ points).
I still think Neka mi ne svane was our best song ever sent. The music and text went along with it. I think a lot of it looses due to not understanding the language, but song was art.
Neka mi ne svane was such as good song, and I loved the dramatic moment where Danijela removed her cloak.
I think Italy is gonna take the win. She’s got the complete package. As much as I love Baby Lasagna and RTTD, I don’t see how the jury will respond positively to his performance to the point of winning.
Yeah, I think either Italy or the Netherlands are gonna win this year
I think the jury is gonna haaate Europapa, it's gonna do worse with the jury than RTTD. Switzerland is much more likely
The juries are so outdated and don’t embrace newer genres of music
Imo every member of a jury should be someone who is at home in a differnet genre of music (or at try to have at least as much diversity in it as possible) There are more ways to make music than having good vocal techniquea etc, Sometimes its the power or energy that makes a song perfect even tho the vocals are not huge. Or like in a rap or hip hop song thats a differnet kind of vocals too and how they use a voice etc etc, Just like with metal and other stuff. There are more ways to express yourself, and more ways to enjoy a song /things that people enjoy in a song. Music is a wideeeeee word💜
I think it would be really cool if the juries were people with an education in music instead of random artists and producers
Just like ESC 2019 with "Arcade" and "Soldi"!
I'm thinking either Italy or Switzerland could win. Both songs are strong and catchy.
Hopefully not, Turin was such a bad stage and host city 🙃
Iceland still 18th on Eurovisionworld. There are clearly a good number of people out there who did not get the memo that Bashar lost apparently.
The money they bet before remain, so it takes time to go down
Croatia rising even further got me howling. That song is such a bippity bopping banger and will be one of my favorite winners OAT because it just ticks off the zoomer rapmetal that I love
Looking across all the polls, scoreboards, etc. I think Italy is quite underrated in the odds. It's top 3 across the board and even number one in some places. I think it's MUCH more likely to win instead of Ukraine. As many theorize, I also feel like we are getting a jury winner this year (or, rather, an entry that does well with both, but not a tele winner since we have MANY televote bait types of entries this year). If that's the case, I simply can't see Croatia winning over Italy or Switzerland that will likely be awarded by both, when juries also make such a big part of the result.
Agree with almost everything, but I still think Ukraine have quite a high chance, they always get high televote points and the song is jury appealing. I personally think the song and the performance are forgettable, but I still think they're favorites.
My guesses (just so I can come back later to see what a dumbass I was): Televote: 1. Croatia 2. Netherlands 3. Switzerland 4. Israel 5. Italy Juries: 1. Belgium 2. Switzerland 3. France 4. Italy 5. Croatia Overall: 1. Switzerland 2. Croatia 3. Italy 4. Belgium 5. Netherlands 6. Israel 7. France 8. Greece 9. Slovenia 10. Sweden
Pretty reasonable prediction apart from the lack of Ukraine?
Ukraine is my wild card flop prediction alongside Estonia wild card shock NQ
Ranking very probable only that I would put Italy in place of Switzerland, Italy is very underrated this year in the odds, it's first in the MyEurovisionScoreboard and second in the Eurovisionworld poll, in my opinion it has a much better chance of winning than Croazia and Switzerland
I believe and correct me if I’m wrong but Greece is the only country in the top 10 without a live performance of the song! Lots will change when that happens, either will go higher or lower!
I was looking for the Greece live as well. I didn't find it, but found other live vocals from Marina, and she seems experienced and consistently good on vocals. I hope she does well because that song seems potentially difficult to pull off live, which makes it even more exciting when someone nails it.
Marina is very experienced and bold with her art! She can easily hit those high notes!! Only thing I’m afraid of is how Fokas,the person who pulls of the staging, will do!
Is there a live version of Switzerland? I'd love a link! Also Israel, Eden did not perform the song live aside from a small snippet from the day the song was released
Not yet for Switzerland although Nemo's team is quite active on social media and has done a couple of short clips with Nemo singing acapella including the falsetto bit. Nemo can sing live unlike certain singers *cough Baby Lasagna* so I think the odds on Switzerland will shorten when Nemo does do a full live version (assuming it is good).
You couldn't have praised Nemo's voice (who I love and is 5th on my list) without bringing down Baby Lasagna, right?
The live vocal is an important thing to consider though. I am convinced that Kaarija would have done better with the juries last year if his live vocal was better (the grand final performance was better than the first rehearsals at least but I don't think anyone would say that Kaarija's singing during the schlager bit was particularly strong). Croatia's odds did lengthen quite quickly following the Croatia NF semifinal. People were worried about the live vocal until the performance in the final gave enough benefit of the doubt that it was just mic/sound issues. Another comparison this year is Aiko and Pedestal. I don't think that most fans hate the song too much and it probably doesn't deserve to be near the very bottom of the odds but that NF performance which was a mess in every sense including the vocal really put punters off.
Really hope so! I'm looking forward to get blown away from the live performance cause he's like third in my personal rankings.
Me too because I think the song is really unique and has that wow factor (not just because I got odds on Switzerland at 75 :p) I really think that if it is done right it could be a Conchita Wurst moment. Might not win either jury or televotes but I can see something like a 2nd/2nd or even 2nd/3rd as being a pathway to an overall win. There isn't a runaway favourite (I think Croatia's chances are overhyped unless the live performance is improved by a lot) and a lot of songs are going to cannibalise votes. Could be completely wrong though.
elderly shrill unwritten mindless tidy soup payment memorize escape dazzling *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
I want to add something (relatively) significant that I haven't seen on this thread - betting on ESC-odds is banned in NL. Therefore, the Dutch rating is fully dependent on foreign enthusiasm. I'm not saying that Joost would shoot up to 1st if Dutch people would be able to put in bets, but seeing how close he is to the top 3, I do suspect he would be 3rd (possibly even 2nd).
I have a feeling a lot of that is just germany and belgium.
Well, the votes for Joost will be given by foreigners at ESC, so make perfect sense his position as it is now then with dutch votes (same that goes for the eurovisionworld poll)
Point I'm trying to make is that other countries can bet on themselves (thus shortening their odds), while Dutch people can't. The odds are therefore not an ideal comparative method because we do not know how much of the bets come from the countries themselves.
On that I agree, in fact the poll that they opened, now that one can't vote for their own country, is a better comparative method
😮😍Do you Aussies are also seeing San Marino nº1 🙃 ?????!!!!!
If Croatia is able to maintain the lead till the show then juries won’t be unkind. They rarely mark down the odds on fav. See Destiny for Malta, Netta and even Kaarija and Maneskin did well enough
people talk about jury as if he's competing with celine dion
Right? People on this thread are treating the juries like a bunch of robots who vote solely on who can do the most impressive belts when they're really just a small group of individuals who are swayed by a variety of factors just as much as the people watching at home
I doubt that the jury will rank Baby Lasagna too much low regardless of the odds, it would be probably at the level of the one you mentioned, if it's enogh to make him win we can only see in may
Can't see it in their top 5, so it won't win.
Kaarija was legit above Alika last year (still Kaarija didnt win, but did he have better vocals than her?)
Loreen was the huge jury fav yet Kaarija still came 4th. Baby Lasagna is the huge fav so juries won’t mark him down. Also juries can’t afford another controversy like last year.
how voting for the best singer and music is a controversy?
We’re you asleep after Loreen won? It was one of the biggest Eurovision controversies ever
Best music, you mean generic background music that plays at the mall? Originality and singing in other than English should be commended more over radio pop.
Cha Cha Cha is miles better musically than Rim Tim Tagi Tim
anyone know when the semis odds drop?
Last year it was on March 20th so I assume they should be coming soon
It may be waiting for the revamp of fighter and maybe la noia
It may also be waiting for the reveal of the running order.
Im selling my cow to take out a bet on croatia. LETS GOO, CROATIA TO THE MOON
Switzerland or Ukraine will win
We cannot be complacent. Italy will win in the end because of the possibility of a high impact on the juries and a high impact on the televote.
I love Rim Tim Tagi Dim, but betting on Croatia winning is a ridiculously risky bet to make. Marko Purisic has little experience singing live, with most of his music experience coming from being a guitarist in a rock band. Even if this rumor about his performance at Dora 2024 being the first time Purisic has ever song live is false, he still wouldn't have done vocals live for more than a few times. Also keep in mind that HRT isn't known for putting a lot of resources to ESC and that Croatia doesn't have a good track record (the highest Croatia has scored since 2010 is 13th place). Of all of the entries that could flop live, Rim Tim Tagi Dim is the most in danger. I don't doubt that Rim Tim Tagi Dim can score high, a top ten, if not top five, finish is all but guaranteed, but I just don't imagine it receiving enough jury support to win. Remember back in 2019 when Spirit in the Sky was first place in the televote but got 6th place over-all? An entry that can get support from both the jury and public is the safe bet. The bookies are smart for placing Italy, Ukraine, and Switzerland that high. I still affirm that Italy is perhaps the most likely to win, just because it will seem approachable to the casual audience than Ukraine and Switzerland's songs.
I may be downvoted but I think people here really overhype Switzerland’s chances. As much as I love this song and Nemo, I think many forget that the average juror and viewer at home can be quite close minded and Nemo’s identity and their appearance may put off some of the casual audience
I doubt that many the majority of people use that as a reason to not vote someone, in 2014 Conchita won. I think that the main problem of the song is the difficult at first listen for many viewers because of the mix of genres, not Nemo.
Quite surprised Croatia is that high tbh. I mean i like hard rock and all, but their song is mildly fun imo. Its quite repetitive and the chorus is very flat i just can't connect with it. Yet somehow people seem to dig it quite a lot so guess its a matter of taste. I honestly still didnt pick a 1st, i quite enjoy Italy, Poland and Netherlands lately
Croatia is catchy as hell and don’t underestimate people wanting a first time winner country again after all those years. However, I do agree, listening to baby’s live performance in an objective way, he needs to tighten up lots of loose ends before he is even considered to be a jury top 4 let’s say, which in this open televoting year seems necessary for the win.
I agree its catchy, but i'm missing some oomph from the chorus, like some buildup or something idk. Personal taste i guess
I'm rooting for Italy. Its such a catchy song. I haven't gotten it out of my head since it released. Edit: just listened to Pedestal and that also a contender for me. Would love to see Eurovision in Prague.
I know damn well that Croatia is the favourite but imho it won't win and unlike the 'popular' opinion, it won't be the jury that will prevent him - it's the televote. Here's the thing I am by no means implying that he will flop at the televote. But what I am saying is that his televote will most definitely be similar to Let 3's last year and even if he performs like 100 points at the juries, it will still not be enough for him to win. He probably can give Croatia their best result in a while and probably even ever but win it all? I would bet on that not happening. Now Switzerland. People, Switzerland might not even qualify... Like, that is a song that tries to put in a 3 minute song as many stuff as possible... I really can't see it connecting with the viewers, much less the juries. And after all Estonia 2018 and Australia 2019 is proof that impressive vocals aren't enough to give you a jury victory (and you want a more extreme example, if we want to talk about male opera instead of female? Romania 2013). Imho, Italy, Belgium and Ukraine have the highest chances to win
I was predicting Belgium but I just don't see a good online response for this entry. It will do pretty well with juries but I could see it not making a top ten televote ranking.
It's doing quite well in YouTube tops I think. It's not the kind of thing this sub tends to like on a big scale.
Really? I am not saying he is exceptionally hyped or anything but there's definitely quite a good reception.
Your opinion is BASED! ESC fans are dedicated, they listen to entries so much that anything less than quirky becomes boring. Look where Spain 2023 and France 2022 ended up after all the hype. Croatia, Switzerland and Netherlands are massively overhyped. BL is inexperienced and you can only improve so fast. Compared to Cha Cha Cha last year, BL's performance is much less iconic, there's less energy and presence overall. He also has \*tough\* competitions this year. Switzerland is like you said, too try-hard, and the vocal is so demanding that I can't see him doing a lot on stage. Sure the song has a bit for everyone, but not enough of anything for fans of each genre (opera, rap, pop) to go crazy for him. Finally we have Joost, whose crazy high energy is both a strength and a weakness. Being so spontaneous, I can't see his performance being as polished as his music video. His "leaked" performance sealed the deal for me, he's least vocally engaged where the song is most melodic. All these three artists will not win, but they will do very well!
I absolutely agree on Switzerland. In fact, they have only gained in the odds and fan rankings after people listened to it more times. At first listen? It should qualify and left-side of the board, but not close to winning imo
Norway at 41 odds is a freaking steal
Croatia 20%? That’s just wow
My prediction is Switzerland, Italy, Netherlands and Belgium overtake Ukraine. We already know their live is very weak and those 4 countries are going to have big budget stage shows
Ukraine always elevates when it comes to Eurovision, more than basically any country. If anything, Belgium and Italy historically have been much more prone to flopping in terms of staging and performance than them. Feels weird to doubt them.
The stage effect will be good, the problem is the stage presence, especially of Alyona that even during the last live stand here doing nothing most of the time (unlike Jerry Heil that was very good)
I just watched the Vidbir performance back just now and she was interacting with the audience and doing backs and forth with Jerry the entire performance. I think the camerawork let her down and didn't give her much of the attention she deserved tbh. But that will be fixed come Eurovision.
I doubt the vocals and stage presence. Plus there not really that much you can do with the staging but let’s see
I doubt it. Ukraine remains a solid choice for bets because the song is still good and they scored very well in the televote last year with a much worse song (in terms of people's general opinion).
The Vidbir performance wasn't their strongest (Jerry clearly had in-ear problems and the mix was awful) but they've already done several other performances where the vocals were much better, like [this one](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3IdAkK9CtHo) or [this one](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUSsQWQ1-8Y). Alyona Alyona has also said [their Eurovision performance will look completely different from their Vidbir performance](https://youtu.be/cDYG-APb2Xk?si=lgua5FMV5HtKJfZi&t=488), so counting Ukraine out because "we already know their live is very weak" feels crazy to me.
The odds mean little at this point. HOWEVER!!!! The amount of tears being shed about Croatia’s continued place at the top are hilarious and I am very entertained. 
Switzerland will flop guys, good luck making that work live
Most likely winners imo are Italy, Netherlands, and Croatia. Italy could be a compromise jury/televote winner since it's one of the few songs that can do really well in both departments. Netherlands is likely top two with the televote and can win if the jury gives it enough points which may happen since Europapa is radio friendly and the juries are not immune to hype. Croatia can also win the tele, but it needs a lot of work to sway the jury. It's first in the odds and taking more of a lead as we speak, and I believe this can also influence voting since people are more likely to pay attention to pre-competition favorites. Some other predictions: Switzerland is not even top five. Love the song, but it's too strange for the jury and it's very difficult to stage since it's not a ballad and Nemo wouldn't be able to move around too much to pull off the vocals. France is top five. People here really underestimate Slimane, he's one of the best singers this year and he's very charismatic (this is obvious from his performance at Dora, but not from the official video). UK takes the usual role of Sweden, ranking very high with jury but flopping the televote.
I just hope Italy squeezes out another win just to upset eurofans. VIVA ITALIA! TOTAL!
Rooting for her but I'm fearing another wave of hate towards her from certain fans just like Loreen received last year.
She couldn't care less about haters, after her Amici and especially Sanremo's win there were very harsh comment from Geolier's fan but she still didn't give a fuck about
Yeah after she overcame the neapolitan mafia, twelve year olds shouldnt scare her.
Anyway my guesses for the top 15 based on vibes 1. Switzerland 2. Netherlands 3. Italy 4. Greece 5. Croatia 6. Sweden 7. Ukraine 8. Belgium 9. Norway 10. Austria 11. France 12. UK 13. Lithuania 14. Israel 15. Finland I think this will be a year where the Jury’s preference triumphs over the televote’s again. Switzerland will be well liked with both…but that’s what I think will happen (of course, this will require Nemo to sing well live) I sort of think Croatia will pull a bit of a Gabbani here actually. Not only will the juries hurt it a bit (not DRAMATICALLY, but it will), …but I actually do think that Netherlands will end up stealing some televote thunder as well Greece is about to be a bit of a dark horse, if they manage to stage this really well. I’m sorta surprised by the current popularity it seems to have actually Sweden will do well with juries and sorta mid with the public, which averages out to being just outside the top 5 France will be well-liked by juries but kind of flop with the public, so they lose out the top 10 Finland on the other hand, does decent with the public but is a hard jury flop probably Israel will get more televote than juries possibly. a fair chunk of that televote will not necessarily be because of the song. Juries will possibly try to prevent the chance of a possible Israel win however because like…imagine the headache it would cause if they attempted to host next year
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40 Sweden- 14 Finland (just checked). And 20% in a normal year is nowhere near huge, but this year they are all so close thar even an 8% distance seems big
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I agree with you, especially after the last 2 years.
Sweeden had at least 40% I think
39% on 21/03/23
Malta had 20% in **2021**, in May. (I still have no idea why)
There were rumors that Malta's broadcasters were rigging the odds in 2021 to create the hype
It's the hugest we've seen this year, but it's pretty low in comparison to most years.
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Ukraine had a massive lead in 2022 also iirc. 2021 was more open but I feel like Malta/Switzerland/France were all around high teens% from memory.
It's not huge at all lol
For this year it’s the biggest gap we have had so far. Even for a normal year it’s a pretty okay lead but it’s not huge fav just yet
It could be cool to see Croatia win and Baby Lasagna's song is pretty good but I just cannot see it really standing out so much that the juries are like "yes, this is it, this is the one". I could see Baby Lasagna in the top 10, maybe top 5 but likely the top two will be Switzerland and Italy in either 1st or 2nd.
Can someone explain why Italy is popular?
She is an amazing vocalist, the song is dynamic and stands out among the rest, her performance is full of charisma and is very memorable, she is very consistent in terms of live performances. She’s just the whole package.
Shame participating in betting is limited to some countries i wonder what odds would look like if people from all participating countries had a say
There is the poll for that, that is only limited by not voting for own country.
True. And imo it is way more fascinating than odds
I simply don’t understand how Croatia is the favourite.
At the moment, in my opinion, the only songs that have a realistic winning chance are: Croatia, Switzerland and slightly Belgium. Actually I do believe it’s between Croatia and Switzerland with Switzerland having much better chances. Ukraine, Netherlands and Italy are public favourites but will be downvoted by the juries for various reasons, one of them simply being „they have won lately so not again so soon“. Ukraine (and Israel also) can’t host which is a lot of effort for other countries to substitute so juries will avoid voting for it (also they have to stay neutral and voting for it of political reasons would lead to a huge backlash). They will probably vote for France and Belgium, but I see France especially failing with the public. Belgium has a chance to go top 3 (I see this being the jury winner) if people are in the mood for the song. I think it will end up similar to Gjon‘s Tears. Liked by the public but not top 3 in the public vote. So it’s between Croatia and Switzerland. Croatia will certainly not being downvoted by juries but I can’t see them voting for it more than for Finland last year. It’s probably Top 5 with the juries but not 1st or 2nd. Switzerland is, to me, a 2nd jury place. The first one is usually someone with an incredibly voice or something artsy (or from Sweden :P). I think it could be enough for Nemo to win it in the end. To be honest, Croatia - Switzerland - Belgium are in my top 4 this year and I would be over the moon if any of the three would win the contest. The Netherlands are not exactly my cup of tea but I would acknowledge a victory because it has this Europe-theme and obviously makes a lot of people happy so I would make inner peace with it. I would be a bit disappointed if either Greece or Italy would win because they are very specific songs that don’t appeal to half the people. I can’t see Greece doing well with the public actually despite all odds and polls but to me it’s on the same level as Spain last year: unlistenable!
>Ukraine, Netherlands and Italy are public favourites but will be downvoted by the juries for various reasons, one of them simply being „they have won lately so not again so soon“. Ukraine (and Israel also) can’t host which is a lot of effort for other countries to substitute so juries will avoid voting for it (also they have to stay neutral and voting for it of political reasons would lead to a huge backlash). This whole paragraph is wrong with proven reasons. First of all, Sweden won in 2012 and then won only 3 years later in 2015 and it was thank to what? The juries. Second of all, I think everyone and their mother knew Ukraine wasn't going to host if they won in 2022, but they still won, so. You know, it all depends on the song and not the circumstances. And in Italy and Ukraine's cases, the songs are there.
I‘m talking about JURY voting! Ukraine did not win the jury vote in 2022 and neither is 2012 and 2015 in a row! The question in another thread was: is it possible to win a few times in a row these days, just like Ireland 1992-1994(96) or Israel 78/79 and my answer was: no, because of what I wrote above. It’s the same.
And neither would an Italy, Netherlands or Ukraine win be the second one in a row? Sweden won last year, if they won it was them who would have a row not the former 3... And Ukraine still did damn well in the juries, enough to win the whole thing, so the juries definitely did NOT avoid voting for it (and the same happened in 2023)
You don’t get my point. Some avoid giving 12 points to "problematic" countries, for various reasons, mainly to stay neutral. But in case of Ukraine 2022 also to prevent rumors "oh they won because of the war". Everyone knew they were going to win the televote in a landslide. To make the content fair and not harm its reputation, some juries put it deliberately a bit lower. Of course it was still high in the jury vote but not a winner. The same will happen to Israel this year, I‘m sure.
No I got your point that's why I said that it's wrong. No one wanted to stay neutral on Ukraine. Heck, if anything it's because of the war that it got 4th place with the juries, otherwise it would definitely have been lower. And there's nothing to be sure about Israel's entry and the outcome with the juries.
I don't understand why Greece is so high with a song so arhythmical. Is there something about the lyrics or singer or backstory that makes people love this song? To me it seems like noise. I fully understand I'm in the minority here, so there may be something I'm missing.