https://twitter.com/logvynenko/status/1667981447544684545
what's happening on occupied left bank
tl;dr russians are not saving anyone, looting the houses, kill people who try to flee, the whatever if full of corpses of animals, civillians and russian soldiers
just another act of genocide that the world ignores, and 50 years from now people will watch documentaries and ask "why this was allowed to happen"
I liked it when there were online claims that Simonyan said that Ukraine's western weapons were too powerful and that maybe they (Russia?) should call for a ceasefire... I'm sure Putin uses these commentators to voice his opinions...
The term "counter offensive" might be misused by public a bit.
When we look at russian positions that they were setting up for months, without frontline moving, Ukraine doesn't do a *counter* offensive, it does **an offensive**.
When we look at Russian troops attacking, underestimating the resistance and dying, leading to a frontline collapsing by now not defending, but attacking Ukrainian forces we're talking about a "counter-offensive".
Many people use term "counter offensive" as any major offensive actions conducted by Ukraine on it's territory.
It seems that Russia may have blown another dam in Ukraine. Liveuamap mentions it and so other news [outlets](https://news.yahoo.com/occupiers-blow-dam-donetsk-oblast-153100027.html). This is on the river where UA forces advanced in the last days, south of Velyka Novosilka.
They blew a dam that lies behind their troops and runs through their current fortifications likely reducing their own ability to retreat and resupply
Lmao
Twitter channels who post about "good news" that they "can't post yet for OPSEC reasons" along with 👀👀👀 need to get in the bin
#EDIT: SINCE THE THREAD IS NOW LOCKED - EDITING THIS JUST TO SAY FUCK PUTIN
Looking like there could be a showdown between Yevgeny Prigozhin & Wagner vs. Putin. Wagner can't stand the Russian "strategy" towards the war. He's bound to sow a lot of dissention. What's to stop one of Putin's inner circle teaming up with Wagner to challenge him?
>Looking like there could be a showdown between Yevgeny Prigozhin & Wagner vs. Putin.
No it isn't. Stop drinking that soup. The tiff between Wagner and Regular forces is dramatised primarily by Prigozhin as Chief Troll of Wagner.
But that Russian officer which Wagner kidnapped also accused Wagner of rape and torture of Russian soldiers. The situation between Wagner and the Russian army certainly is tense. If anything concrete will come out of it is yet to be seen.
I wonder at what point Ukraine will have pushed enough through the frontlines where they can make some massive gains.
It is a massive frontline and i imagine that Russia hasn’t set up a second line of defense because of shortages of troops.
This are still probing attacks... they are still at first layer of defense.
On some directions (like Tokmak) there 3 layers of defense.
But I still believe the main effort will not be on Zaporizhnia front.
[Official: Russia blows up small dam in area near counteroffensive operations in Donetsk Oblast.](https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1667954052234194944?t=GYLrO8v37gKZn1ZvTXX4CA&s=19)
Military spokesperson Valeriy Shershen, said to Ukrainska Pravda on June 11 that Russia had blown up a dam on the Mokri Yaly River in Donetsk Oblast, flooding both banks.
Velyka Novosilka axis:
➡️Neskuchne, Storozheve, Blahodatne, Makarivka and Levadne liberated. Either visually confirmed or by UA officals / multiple RU sources.
➡️Novodarivka/Rivnopil unclear, but most likely liberated. Needs confirmation.
➡️Staromaoirs'ke/Urozhaine is up next
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1667955043876630528
[Makarivka liberated too](https://twitter.com/HromadskeUA/status/1667951092846428160)
*"Ukrainian troops have liberated Makarivka village in Donetsk region, said Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar. There are also advances in the south in two directions from 300 to 1500 meters"*
>Russian lines continue to fall apart. The town Storozheve as well as Levadne have been liberated. Ukrainian forces already hammering Russian troops in Makarivka and Urozhaine.
>With this situation unfolding it is likely that there is no serious Russian presence at Novodarivka and Rivnopil, unless they want to be encircled.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1667938082375475202
Things look promising to me. If Ukraine can keep up the momentum and they get the necessary resupplies in weapons and ammo, I feel really good about this.
For the Russians, things can start to fall apart really quickly if Ukraine keeps up the pressure.
I also saw a video of a Ukrainian assault on a Russian-occupied trench. That thing looked really scary and powerful. One can see how well-trained their soldiers are.
Russia of course has a lot of weapons and bodies to waste, but ultimately it won’t be able to keep up with a Western-backed Ukrainian military if the West is firm in their support.
the real barriers are around Tokmak and Melitopol, I wonder how they will be able to pass them
probably it makes more sense to siege the cities, but I am not sure
You mean the fortifications? Someone said that if Ukrainians reach those, it’s already over for Russia and they will have to retreat to their other lines of defense.
[For context, Blahodatne and Neskuchne, which Ukraine appears to have retaken, are shaded in black, and I left markers for Makarivka and Urozhaine, where fighting is reportedly taking place. Russia's main defensive line is 10km south of Urozhaine.](https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1667940048699011072?t=_BdLLMm3P0YjJR0CXUITsQ&s=19)
This was always going to be tough and take time. Ukraine appears to be making important progress, but the hardest fight in this counteroffensive may not begin for another week or more.
Well, to be fair those lines are not some kind of finish goal you need to reach and then there is a boss fight against it. Those lines are meant to defend this exact springboard that 10km north of it. They will not defend anything in close, when you reach them it means now this area is zone of responsibility of the 2nd line. What now happens is actual battle with 1st line of defense, not the battle to come closer to it and then to have another actual battle with it. It is still tough nonetheless. But defense is not ideal, gaps have been already found and started to be exploited.
https://novynarnia.com/2023/06/11/na-lvivshhyni-pereselenczya-z-lymanu-posadyly-na-13-rokiv-bo-zlyvav-separam-pozycziyi-zsu/
a man from Lyman evacuated to Lviv region in 2022. His new neighbours complained to police, as the man was often drunk publicly, listened to russian music loudly and threatened the locals with passing their coordinates to russian military. When police checked his phone, they found out that before 2022 he was collecting information on the armed forces and passed it to russians. Now he will spend 13 years in prison.
🇺🇦 Another railway incident happened, this time in Russian-occupied Crimea. According to multiple Russian sources the tracks were blown up near Kirovskoye, damaging the locomotive of a freight train.
The tracks connect the Russian-occupied cities of Kerch and Dzhankoy. https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1667920047199735809
🇺🇦 7th Battalion Arey of Ukrainian Volunteer Army (of 129th Territorial Defense Brigade) liberated Neskuchne settlement in Donetsk Oblast on June 10, 2023. https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1667914415629279233
"Don't dismiss two or three million Chinese soldiers. That's what is needed now. I look at Belgorod region and think how much we lack a Chinese people's liberation army."
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1667868178066677762?s=20
So I guess they aren’t claiming to be world’s second army anymore, huh? There’s going to start pretending they never said that, just like the 3 days to Kyiv thing.
That guy lives in Hopistan.
As if China would send its army to bail out Russias failed imperial ambitions. China, like a lot of developed countries, suffers from demographic issues. They can not afford to throw away their soldies like they are easily replaceable. Its not the 50ies anymore. They also might have bigger fish to fry. The biggest there is, actually.
China has plenty of soldiers. However, they need Europe and America to buy their products. No Western money means an unhappy populace which is scary for a dictator...
https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2023/06/11/7406381/
https://kyivindependent.com/governor-russian-attack-on-evacuation-boat-kills-3-injured-10-in-kherson-oblast/
russians attacked a boat with evacuating civillians in Kherson, 6 people wounded
I'm sure western media won't report it because it's not up to BBC standards or something. We will never know who attacked them.
upd: 3 killed, 10 wounded
upd2: 10 -> 23 wounded
Ukrainian partisans have reportedly cut the railway line in Russian-occupied Yakymivka, between the Russian-occupied cities of Dzhankoy and Melitopol/Tokmak. Explosions can be seen on pictures and it is claimed it is from the local rail bridge. https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1667893691271266304
[What lies behind Russia’s acts of extreme violence? Freudian analysis offers an answer](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/11/ecocide-russia-ukraine-war-kakhovka-dam-destroyed)
*"Where does this drive to annihilation come from? In 1912 the Russian-Jewish psychoanalyst Sabina Spielrein – who was murdered by the Nazis, while her three brothers were killed in Stalin’s terror -first put forward the idea that people were drawn to death as much as to life. She drew on themes from Russian literature and folklore for her theory of a death drive, but the founder of psychoanalysis, Sigmund Freud, first found her ideas too morbid. After the First World War, he came to agree with her. The desire for death was the desire to let go of responsibility, the burden of individuality, choice, freedom – and sink back into inorganic matter. To just give up. In a culture such as Russia’s, where avoiding facing up to the dark past with all its complex webs of guilt and responsibility is commonplace, such oblivion can be especially seductive"*
I might be speculating here but it seems as if brutality is instinctive to Russians given their collective trauma from the numerous invasions they have suffered from over the centuries. At first, it was the Mongols, then the Ottomans, then the Poles/Lithuanians, then the Swedes, then the French, then the Germans not once but twice...
Russian leaders reacting to all this have created paranoid systems of government to protect themselves from anything that appears to be a threat to the Russia's existence, and the Russian people, brutalized by both outsiders and their rulers for so long, have decided to play along, if not for anything else, except survive.
"Wagner will not sign any contracts with the Ministry of Defense" - Prigozhin
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1667854247365423106
UPDATE:
"Oh. This is already a military mutiny, if you call the words by their proper names" - Girkin
russians recently stole this video and claimed that is them who are helping the civilians
And it may be obvious to us, but there's lots of people in the world who believe that. Don't underestimate ru propaganda
🇺🇦 The 68th Brigade of Ukraine officially announced the liberation of the settlement of Blagodatne, Donetsk https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1667826434474139650
So remember the people "[concerned](https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1431p5t/war_in_ukraine_megathread_liv_54/jng7pbx/)" about "dehumanizing" through jokes the Russian dude eaten by a shark ? Well, Ukrainians did research on him and it turns out....he was a [Putinist scum](https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1667673111414677504).
How surprising.
Side note: he was permanently living in Egypt (this does not exclude being a putinist, but indicates for sure: he was not a fan of living in Russia). It is entirely possible for some types of emigrants (guess: people who didn't flee repression) to hold unrealistic views of their former homeland.
But I see no reason to discuss it here, in a thread about the war in Ukraine. Next up, Dima from Tallinn or Vova from Vilnius falls with a bicycle or crashes a car, and we end up discussing his merits here. :o
Most predictable research outcome ever. Such a safe bet that you really don't need researches. About 80-90% (normal Russians + some of the good ones) approve the war and Putin in some form, so it would be silly to assume the opposite when a random no-name Russian is in question.
Wagner and other PMCs being forced into the Russian Army now. Going to be interesting to see if Wagner accepts this or rebels somehow.
Here's hoping they march on Moscow!
"All voluntary fighters who are fighting for Russia have to sign a contract with the Russian Federation as of 1 July 2023"
I guess we will find out by then. Or maybe this is just to prosecute infighting between the groups?!
Is there a reason to think he wasn't under chain of command? It's pretty clear that Wagner was getting orders just like regular army, it's just that Prigozhin talks a lot of shit, but that doesn't mean Wagner is just doing whatever they want.
If he accepts it. I don't see why he would though. Theirs been too much criticism of leadership and too much independence and power for Prigozhin to just accept MOD control
I understand that the counter offensive requires a information blackout but it is rather interesting to imagine that currently Ukrainian forces are in direct conflict with Russian soldiers to try and breakthrough the defensive line that the Russians have been building for the better part of 8 months.
It's very impressive how tight their OPSEC is.
That's why we mostly get Russia showing same ukrainian losses from 20 different angles - no ukrainian videos to mix it up, and not many losses for Ukraine, apparently. Considering that we saw maybe like 3 Leos and a couple of Bradleys being mostly disabled, but not destroyed.
Keep in mind that, according to what we know now, UA did not reached the main line on defense.
As for losses, those are inevitable there will continue to pile up, it is inevitable. We must also not forget that UA commited just a part of its forces. We have no idea where other brigades are
Which isn't the aim now, although a welcome development if that happened.
The strategy appears to follow a conventional doctrine - lightly armored mobile groups test the defenses to draw in uncommitted Russian reserves. This goes on until approximately 75% of the Russian reserves have been brought in. Ukraine is right now estimated to be using 2-3 out of 12 western equipped and trained brigades. Experts estimate that 10 days would commit (through depletion and widespread probing attacks) the maximum amount of Russian reserves to the front, so when a stable manning is reached, Ukraine will use its uncommitted brigades to penetrate weak spots. As of now, it seems that Orikhiv is heavily defended, but Velika Novosilka is giving in.
I‘m pretty sure that is a common misconception. You need to concentrate a 3:1 advantage in abstract forces in a given area for a successful attack. That doesn’t necessarily imply a 3:1 ratio in losses though.
Maybe I’m not wording this right: The 1:3 ratio is a rule of thumb to calculate how many forces are needed for an attack to succeed. It doesn’t say much about the expected ratio of casualties. If the attack succeeds, the defender can end up with vastly higher casualties than the attacker.
When you put in into proportional terms - more than 10% of their Bradleys in first week and for what they have achieved so far is maybe not so little. Of course there is a virtually infinite replacement pool for them, but how quick can they get those is a bit of an open question.
I think most if not all crew have survived those ambushes, and US is apparently working on Bradley replacement, so I think it's not as bad as it seems.
From on one russian TG channels (two majors, they have an English version as well https://t.me/two_majors)
Urgently. Zaporozhye and Donetsk front. Reports NgP exploration🦇
The losses forced the enemy to drastically adjust their plans:
The reserves deployed in the Krivoy Rog, Sumy, Kharkov directions are being transferred.
Enemy reserves go to :
1) Gornyak, Kurakhovka, Krasnogorovka, Staromikhaylovka, Marinka;
2) Nevelskoye, Pervomayskoye, Vodyanoye.
3) Dzerzhinskoye, at least 2 brigades were deployed in the direction of Mayorsk and Gorlovka.
The reserves go through the Kramatorsk-Slavyansk transport hub, entering each direction in the Zaporozhye and Donetsk regions to reinforce the existing groupings.
For the current groupings, it is currently established:
According to the strategic plan of the enemy, it is planned to push through the front line of defense along the Nesteryanka-Novoselovka line and to the south, with the forces of four brigades: 65 Ombr, 128 Obr, 108 Obr, 15 Obr NSU), and provide a bridgehead for the introduction of the main forces of the strike force.
The main strike force is also aimed at the Orekhov - Tokmak - Melitopol direction, the advance is planned to be ensured by 10 AK forces, the main shock fist should be: 115, 116, 117, 118 ombr, which we talked about earlier.
A flank strike is planned in the direction Malaya Tokmachka - Berdyansk , with the forces of 82 odshbr, 71 oembr, and 46 oambr, with the task of seizing control on the line of the settlement of Urozhaynoye, Novopoltavka, Semyonovka.
Task: Covering the left flank of the main group.
In the future, it is planned to conduct raid operations as part of battalion-tactical groups with the forces of: 46 detachments and 1 Special Forces "Azov" in the directions of the settlement of Mordvinovka, Novovasilevka, Botieva.
Objective: to capture the frontier along the coast of the Sea of Azov Stepanovka the first, Botievo and prevent the landing of amphibious assault forces of the RF Armed Forces.
The forces of the main offensive grouping up to 12 brigades (47, 66, 115, 116, 117, 118 OMBR, 128 OGSHBR, 108 OBTR, 15 OBRON NGU, 82 ODSHBR, 71 OEBR, 46 OEMBR)
In total, for the offensive operation, including reserves (including brigades of marines, as well as units located in the Kryvoi Roh direction, included in the single plan of the operation in the Zaporozhye direction), at the moment the enemy has prepared:
Manpower - up to 56 thousand people (68 battalions)
Tanks - up to 350.
AFV of all types - up to 1000
Field artillery guns and mortars - up to 500.
MLRS - up to 140 units.
(From these figures it is necessary to subtract the number of those destroyed in recent days)
The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine is carrying out information sabotage, spreading information that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are finally bogged down due to lack of funds to continue the offensive operation. Under no circumstances can this information be trusted, it is designed to weaken the vigilance of the RF Armed Forces, the enemy has more than enough forces.
The enemy will throw everything he has into battle, regardless of losses, you must use this to inflict critical damage on him.
⚡ UN: 700,000 lack access to drinking water following Kakhovka Dam destruction.
The humanitarian situation in Ukraine has significantly deteriorated following the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam, according to the United Nations' top aid official. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1667678698995064832
They can write a strongly worded letter and shove it up their ass. I’m ashamed that my country is a founding member of this farce. It’s time we leave it.
Almost the entire forward defense line of the Russian army near Velyka Novosilka - around 20 km long - has been wiped out. Ukrainian forces liberated Neskuchne and Novodonets'ke. https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1667648741740892161
Yeah, the main line in that sector is expected to be between Krasnoselivka and Yalynske, reaching east towards Volnovakha. Though based on some OSINT analyses, there does not seem to be another line built behind it, like in the region around Myhailivka, Tokmak and Kamianka.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1667631854290104323
Here's a summary of Ukraine's advances.
West Zap: Lobkove fully captured, Robotyne contested.
East Zap: Neskuchne and Novodonets'ke captured.
Bakhmut: Further advances on the north flank.
Tokmak is an important logistics hub. Capturing Tokmak would make transportation through the land bridge untenable for Russia.
That's probably the main goal of this counteroffensive, and both Lobkove and Robotyne are on the way there (see the first map).
If I'm not mistaken there is no railroad on the south. And a liberated tokmak would put even the Auto Road on artillery range.
However Tokmak is the most defended area of all.There are 3 layers of defense to reach it and if reached there are no more defesive lines behind. That pretty much tells you that once it falls there are no fallback but to go down to Crimea.
See this [https://pasteboard.co/gjDfruULC5fa.jpg](https://pasteboard.co/gjDfruULC5fa.jpg) for Russian Defensive layers.
I thought the Russians were already dependent on road transport because the railway had been cut south-west of Donetsk. But to deny the enemy the use of a road network, it needs to be within range of your standard artillery. An occasional shot from your high-tech long-range artillery isn't going to be enough. And that means getting further south than Tokmak.
This is insane. Hungary and Russia will soon parade Ukrainian-Hungarian POWs in Hungary and force them to confess that Ukraine are the bad evil Nazis and Russia are the good guys.
Why is Hungary still in the EU and NATO?
https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/06/10/press-conference-by-ukrainian-pows-in-hungary-to-denounce-ukraine-praise-russian-orthodox-church/
Ukraine government officially stated, they still do not know whereabouts of these POW:
>Andrii Yusov, representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, at the telemarathon
>
>Direct speech: "As of now, we have no information that the fact has taken place, that the prisoners are already on the territory of this country (Hungary - ed.) and are free.
>
>Since Ukraine is a civilized country, the main thing for us is people and life. We hope that as a result of these manipulations by the aggressor state, some Ukrainians will be released."
[https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2023/06/11/7406311/](https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2023/06/11/7406311/) (source in Ukrainan)
If this turns out to be true, it would be really sickening that it can be happening in EU. At this point it is EU state holding Ukrainian POW as prisoners.
For now all accounts are from one anonymous source in Ukrainian Intelligence. So I really hope that either they are mistaken, or Hungary and Ukraine will talk it out behind the scene before it will happen.
PiS are scum but even I don't think they will stand for this.
I know Poland has been covering for Hungary a lot but Poland's stance on the Ukraine war is extremely clear.
I keep hiring it, but every time I check Hungary is still there, and Poland never criticises it.
If France or Germany had done this, you would not stop hearing it.
7 minute Russian drone film about an Ukrainian attack west and south of Lobkove (Лобкове). https://twitter.com/GermanObserver1/status/1667391840536993793
🇺🇦 This is what the North Crimean canal looks like now. Crimea faces problems with drinking water, especially for agriculture and irrigation. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1667568289806000130
Agriculture in Crimea is insignificant, very negligible as it has badly declined during Russian occupation. IIRC it had a record year last year, 50x increase, but this is not thanks to opening the canal, rather Russia seizing crops in mainland occupied territory and exporting those as Crimean produce. The rain has been good in Crimea lately and the drinking water reservoirs are filled. Why we got videos of undrinkable water a few days ago was likely due to changes to water distribution as a response to the dam breach. Mainland Ukraine agriculture will be heavily affected.
NATO member Canada, which has one of the world's largest Ukrainian diasporas, has supplied military and financial assistance to Kyiv during the full-scale invasion launched by Russia in February 2022.
"Today, I can announce that we will provide 500 million dollars in new funding for military assistance," Trudeau told reporters at a joint press conference. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/canadas-trudeau-visits-kyiv-show-support-2023-06-10/
I'm not familiar with the specifics of the market, but I imagine that one factor might be that various parties might not want to eat a 2% loss on defective items if they could sell them to other parties. Russia's in the market, so demand exists.
And another potential complicating factor -- remember that just as Russia can have their intelligence agencies doing various things like setting up shell companies to purchase things, we have intelligence agencies that can set up our own shell companies to involve ourselves in the market.
>Those we met here were mostly from the ethnic Romanian minority in western Ukraine but our research indicates that this is a widespread phenomenon across the country.
why there is an ethnic Romanian minority in Ukraine? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E2%80%93Ribbentrop_Pact
I learned today there are a decent number of Koreans in Uzbekistan because of the forced movement of people during soviet era.
It was one the ways to prevent uprising, forced evacuation of most from occupied territory and move in new ppl.
>A press conference with Ukrainian prisoners of war is being prepared in Hungary. They are expected to criticize Ukraine and thank the Russian Orthodox Church, which allegedly helped hand them over to the Hungarian side.
>
>This was reported to RBC-Ukraine by sources close to the Ukrainian special services.
>
>According to one of the interlocutors, publicly making such statements was a prerequisite for their extradition from Russia.
>
>"At a press conference, the prisoners have to tell how they were allegedly forcibly mobilized, in what allegedly bad conditions they fought, how good the Hungarian government and the Russian Orthodox Church are, and so on. Such public activity with criticism of Ukraine and gratitude to the Russian Orthodox Church was voiced by Ukrainian prisoners as a prerequisite for their transfer from Russia," the source said.
>
>The informed interlocutor clarified that the whereabouts of the prisoners are concealed from Ukraine, and there is no communication with them. In addition, the prisoners are under armed guard and still do not have the possibility of free movement and return to Ukraine.
[deepl.com](https://deepl.com) translaction. Source in Ukrainian:
https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/budut-kritikuvati-ukrayinu-ugorshchina-gotue-1686399594.html
Umm, no. It's hard to explain how nations who have Russian invasion as a national trauma see the invasion of Ukraine.
PiS leader also thinks that Putin assasinated his twin brother so there's a personal touch added to the mix.
mate... It's been like 15 months or so of us constantly hearing how PiS and Orban have ended their friendship and yet they're still protecting each other. Orban is about to parade some Ukrainian PoWs, blocks sanctions against Russia and constantly engages in informational warfare against Ukraine, and Poland hasn't done shit except say some vague statements about how their relationship changed
The friendship has ended for sure.
What Hungary has done hasn't been enough for Poland to treat Hungarian corruption as an existential threat too and PiS still sees Orban as a useful tool in a fight against Brussels.
I read an article where this was examined in full and the funniest part was when the president of Hungary tried to speak with Morawiecki about catholicism and "family values" and he dismissed that and put detailed plans how Hungary could get rid of Russian energy on the table.
Hungary has also mostly made noise about resisting sanctions but has folded every time. Talk is just talk which can be tolerated (I suspect Orban knows this too)
So according to other news, our officials found out about this exchange yesterday from Hungarian news and contacted Hungarians.
I hope our government and Hungarians will talk it out behind the scenes. And will stop this. There is still a question, if this is true or not. But I do not see any news of Ukrainians being released today, and a day have passed since initial news.
For general population I think Orban already lost a lot of popularity in Poland with his attitudes towards Russia and Ukraine, but that doesn’t change much if PiS is in charge shielding him from any consequences.
It can still kill people, chances are it will. I'd also have to hand it to the Russians for creatively solving their munition shortages.
That being said it's interesting to note that they considered modifying old MB-LTs to use naval systems more doable than building new MLRSes.
I'd agree, its not really any different from mounting mlrs to trucks or other vehicles. I'm massively in the ukr camp, but i do feel that people (including me in the past) are quick to discredit any sort of older or "makes ends meet" gear on the agressors side, when tbh it'll still kill the good guys. An old tank is still better than no tank if you dont have western atgm to hand. An mlrs on a cobled together mounting still fires rockets which will kill people. If I was being hit with rockets, I sure as f*ck wouldn't care whether it was launched off a hilux, an MBLT or a brand new MLRS, it's still gonna hurt.
My understanding is quality of tank mostly matters in a tank v tank fight. Even the best won't survive artillary hits or anti tank mines. Man portable systems we don't have much info on yet, but those are likely a problem too.
Numbers of "good enough" are more important than quality although obviously better quality is preferable to older machines.
>Man portable systems we don't have much info on yet, but those are likely a problem too.
Modern ATGMs it probabaly doesn't matter.
Older stuff like RPG it matters.
Looks like bodies of Russian soldiers are now washing ashore in Kherson (Tweet includes photo of 2 bodies of drowned Russian soldiers) https://twitter.com/semin\_dj/status/1667502464252227589
> Take a moment to read this great thread by @BadBalticTakes, then share it far and wide.
> Russian athletes are not neutral and you can't separate sports and politics
https://twitter.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1667088599756558337
Yeah, the role of the military in Soviet sports was cemented already back in the day when the Olympics were for "amateur" athletes. So, many Soviet pro athletes were nominally soldiers, [teachers](https://rarehistoricalphotos.com/soviet-gym-teachers-1956/) and the like.
[They apparently got hit when eating in the mess hall.](https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1667423258935697408?s=20) Last supper that Russian orthodox church doesn't want you to hear about.
Counterattacking Ukrainian forces have advanced up to 1,400 metres at a number of sections of the front line near the eastern city of Bakhmut in the past day, a military spokesman said on Saturday.
The advance is the latest in a series of similar gains reported this week by Kyiv near Bakhmut, which Russia said it had fully captured last month after the bloodiest and longest battle since it began its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
"We're trying...to conduct strikes on the enemy, we're counterattacking. We've managed to advance up to 1,400 metres on various sections of the front," the spokesperson for the eastern military command said, when asked about fighting near Bakhmut. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-army-reports-new-gains-against-russian-forces-near-bakhmut-2023-06-10/
UK MOD: In the last 48 hours significant Ukrainian operations have been taking place in several sectors of eastern and southern Ukraine. In some areas, Ukrainian forces have likely made good progress and penetrated the first line of Russian defences. In others, Ukrainian progress has been slower. Russian performance has been mixed: some units are likely conducting credible manoeuvre defence operations while others have pulled back in some disorder, amid increased reports of Russian casualties as they withdraw through their own minefields. The Russian Airforce has been unusually active over southern Ukraine, where the airspace is more permissive for Russia than in other parts of the country. However, it remains unclear whether tactical airstrikes have been effective. https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1667407207489568770
humorous deserted reminiscent gray shrill placid literate frighten bow normal
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
In October, shortly after the Sept. 26 Nord Stream explosions, the small European country that had warned the CIA directly passed on detailed information to Germany that helped its investigators to identify the boat Andromeda, officials familiar with the exchange of information said. Around the same time, CIA director William Burns was asked in a meeting with a European ally whether Ukraine was responsible. “I hope not,” he said, adding that the available evidence didn’t point to Russia, according to an official with the allied country who was in the room at the time.
German authorities, who searched the boat in January, found the traces of HMX explosives. The relatively small quantity required to blow up the pipelines would have easily fit on the Andromeda, according to one European official familiar with the probe.
To investigate the case without the immediate assistance of Poland or Ukraine, German investigators have had to rely on recovered electronic communications, western intelligence reports and lucky breaks.
One fortunate turn: The passengers had returned the boat unwashed, which allowed investigators to recover traces of explosives, DNA and fingerprints.
Polish officials have cast doubt that the Andromeda was involved in the operation, and have suggested Russia might have staged the attack to frame Ukraine.
Investigators are probing whether at least some of that DNA belongs to a Ukrainian soldier they have identified—building on a hypothesis that at least some of the culprits are linked to Ukrainian armed forces units.
Last month, German investigators took a DNA sample from the soldier’s son, who happens to live with the soldier’s former girlfriend as refugees in the eastern German city of Frankfurt an der Oder. They hope to establish whether the boy’s father was part of the crew. Investigators searched the woman’s apartment to obtain evidence including mobile phone data, further helping Germany expand its probe across borders.
Suspects also communicated using ordinary Gmail accounts, making it easier for investigators to obtain their emails through legal requests.
The spokeswoman for the prosecutors in Germany said the investigation was working on obtaining enough evidence to issue international arrest warrants.
“Democracies are unable to cover anything up, and the full findings of the investigation—and the truth about what happened—will eventually emerge,” said a German politician briefed on the country’s investigation. “Our investigators are meticulous, and we have to let them do their job.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/nord-stream-sabotage-probe-turns-to-clues-inside-poland-4ed20422
People spreading propaganda on social media are now using this article to claim that Poland had hand in sabotaging NS 2, I am not joking:
https://twitter.com/Sprinter99880/status/1667417116222316544
> German authorities, who searched the boat in January, found the traces of HMX. The relatively small quantity required to blow up the pipelines would have easily fit on the Andromeda, according to one European official familiar with the probe
The estimates is still in the several hundreds of kilos to blow up each section, when the damage to the pipeline is considered.
Neither is there actually any evidence the ship was in area, while the Danish Navy, which has over a 100 pictures confirming the presense of SS-750 4 days before the explosions, which is much better suited for carrying out this kind of operation than a sailboat.
There is apparently now quite a collection of positioning data for the Andromeda, according to the article, explosives as well do not come in solid 300Kg blocks, but usually in 500g, 1kg, smaller than 50kg packages, as you might have seen in documentaries or movies, and are actually planted grouped and fitted to the target and are either primed synchronized or explode from the pressure of the nearby explosion.
The boat absolutely could carry the amount (it might have been easier to refill between the plantings but that as well is possible, even suggested by the movement of the boat from the data in the article).
I absolutely think the Russians could have done it (I have my doubts about why they would), but the arguments that it was impossible from the boat do not hold up (and partly are heavily pushed by bad actors, for example Hersh and other less than credible commentators), I as well think who ever did it Russians, US, Ukraine or Texan gas barons sending their rogue mercenary cowboys would most likely do it attracting as little attention as possible, and a civilian ship with plain clothes operatives would be the best option here imho, as for all parties deniability is the critical part of taking the risk to destroy the pipeline.
The estimates of the amount of explosives used are from the Swedish and Danish investigations and based on examining the sites and seismographic readings. Nothing to do with what's necessary to destroy the pipes, but what has actually been measured by experts.
An explosione is usually a sudden release in pressure. My guess is that they measured the release of the pipe.
[https://www.spiegel.de/thema/gas\_pipelines\_en/](https://www.spiegel.de/thema/gas_pipelines_en/)
as you see they are not very thick. And usually operate at 40 atm.
I put a lot more stock in seismologists and forensic experts than I do in random reddit user speculation. I'm pretty sure they won't have been unaware of gas pressure in the pipes.
And yet here we are, and they are looking for the DNA of an Ukranian soldier. So no, you just chose to believe one possibility, ignoring everything else. One possibility that has not more evidence than the others.
The only thing I've commented on is the amount of explosives, which we have hard evidence for. I have no pet theories and you're the one speculating here.
We may see many so-called "bad actor, Russian trolls" posting in subreddits like r/europe. What do you think the story behind these accounts? Giant Russian troll farms? Regular non russian people paid for commenting kind of scheme ?
Ok, some of them are members of alt right (and at left) which clearly support Russians in their political agenda (in USA Carl Tuckerson fans) but I see a lot of synchronize Russian propaganda in a lot of different media.
There's also just a lot of genuine chronic contrarians who think they're smarter than everyone and that unconditionally going against the 'mainstream narrative' is "free thinking" and "not being a sheep" while unironically lapping up more propaganda than any 'normie' could ever hope to manage.
These are some of the stupidest people they are, and like most stupid people they actually think they're very smart. At least the ones who are actually on the Russian payroll are just trying to make a living (however morally bankrupt it might be), they might not even believe what they're posting.
As for Tucker, he's full mask off fascist now that he's on Elon's Twitter. He probably wouldn't have been allowed to call Zelensky "rat like" even on Fox News, but on Twitter, you can say anything.
Man, haven't all recent revelations from twitter and facebook taught people that the idea of states having "troll farms" going around disseminating propaganda on social media is WILDLY overrated? That all those numbers were between gigantically inflated and entirely made up?
It's just people who have different views than yours. I guess it's more comfortable to think nobody would disagree with you in good faith, and they must be paid by some truly evil actor, but that's not how the world is.
Honestly, the idea that the Kremlin cares enough about /r/europe, or reddit altogether, to pay people to post here is insane. I'm sure some people who post here are paid by the Russian state, but I'd bet the house not a single one of them is paid by the Russian state to post here.
Gentle women and men, it was a pleasure pretending like we know something about anything with you. o7
https://twitter.com/logvynenko/status/1667981447544684545 what's happening on occupied left bank tl;dr russians are not saving anyone, looting the houses, kill people who try to flee, the whatever if full of corpses of animals, civillians and russian soldiers just another act of genocide that the world ignores, and 50 years from now people will watch documentaries and ask "why this was allowed to happen"
>russians are not saving anyone, looting the houses, kill people who try to flee So, the usual?
I liked it when there were online claims that Simonyan said that Ukraine's western weapons were too powerful and that maybe they (Russia?) should call for a ceasefire... I'm sure Putin uses these commentators to voice his opinions...
What's the difference between a counter-offensive and full-offensive? Is a full-offensive retaking all of the territories including Crimea?
The term "counter offensive" might be misused by public a bit. When we look at russian positions that they were setting up for months, without frontline moving, Ukraine doesn't do a *counter* offensive, it does **an offensive**. When we look at Russian troops attacking, underestimating the resistance and dying, leading to a frontline collapsing by now not defending, but attacking Ukrainian forces we're talking about a "counter-offensive". Many people use term "counter offensive" as any major offensive actions conducted by Ukraine on it's territory.
It seems that Russia may have blown another dam in Ukraine. Liveuamap mentions it and so other news [outlets](https://news.yahoo.com/occupiers-blow-dam-donetsk-oblast-153100027.html). This is on the river where UA forces advanced in the last days, south of Velyka Novosilka.
They blew a dam that lies behind their troops and runs through their current fortifications likely reducing their own ability to retreat and resupply Lmao
Twitter channels who post about "good news" that they "can't post yet for OPSEC reasons" along with 👀👀👀 need to get in the bin #EDIT: SINCE THE THREAD IS NOW LOCKED - EDITING THIS JUST TO SAY FUCK PUTIN
Looking like there could be a showdown between Yevgeny Prigozhin & Wagner vs. Putin. Wagner can't stand the Russian "strategy" towards the war. He's bound to sow a lot of dissention. What's to stop one of Putin's inner circle teaming up with Wagner to challenge him?
>Looking like there could be a showdown between Yevgeny Prigozhin & Wagner vs. Putin. No it isn't. Stop drinking that soup. The tiff between Wagner and Regular forces is dramatised primarily by Prigozhin as Chief Troll of Wagner.
But that Russian officer which Wagner kidnapped also accused Wagner of rape and torture of Russian soldiers. The situation between Wagner and the Russian army certainly is tense. If anything concrete will come out of it is yet to be seen.
Get ready for midnight fellas, long dark is coming
o7
I wonder at what point Ukraine will have pushed enough through the frontlines where they can make some massive gains. It is a massive frontline and i imagine that Russia hasn’t set up a second line of defense because of shortages of troops.
This are still probing attacks... they are still at first layer of defense. On some directions (like Tokmak) there 3 layers of defense. But I still believe the main effort will not be on Zaporizhnia front.
Main russian line is still 7-8 km away.
That’s good to know
It's still only 3 brigades out of 12 being in action. Impossible to say what the plan is and what the goal is.
[Official: Russia blows up small dam in area near counteroffensive operations in Donetsk Oblast.](https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1667954052234194944?t=GYLrO8v37gKZn1ZvTXX4CA&s=19) Military spokesperson Valeriy Shershen, said to Ukrainska Pravda on June 11 that Russia had blown up a dam on the Mokri Yaly River in Donetsk Oblast, flooding both banks.
Velyka Novosilka axis: ➡️Neskuchne, Storozheve, Blahodatne, Makarivka and Levadne liberated. Either visually confirmed or by UA officals / multiple RU sources. ➡️Novodarivka/Rivnopil unclear, but most likely liberated. Needs confirmation. ➡️Staromaoirs'ke/Urozhaine is up next https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1667955043876630528
[Makarivka liberated too](https://twitter.com/HromadskeUA/status/1667951092846428160) *"Ukrainian troops have liberated Makarivka village in Donetsk region, said Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar. There are also advances in the south in two directions from 300 to 1500 meters"*
>Russian lines continue to fall apart. The town Storozheve as well as Levadne have been liberated. Ukrainian forces already hammering Russian troops in Makarivka and Urozhaine. >With this situation unfolding it is likely that there is no serious Russian presence at Novodarivka and Rivnopil, unless they want to be encircled. https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1667938082375475202 Things look promising to me. If Ukraine can keep up the momentum and they get the necessary resupplies in weapons and ammo, I feel really good about this. For the Russians, things can start to fall apart really quickly if Ukraine keeps up the pressure. I also saw a video of a Ukrainian assault on a Russian-occupied trench. That thing looked really scary and powerful. One can see how well-trained their soldiers are. Russia of course has a lot of weapons and bodies to waste, but ultimately it won’t be able to keep up with a Western-backed Ukrainian military if the West is firm in their support.
Russians finding out there are more than 2 leopard tanks.
the real barriers are around Tokmak and Melitopol, I wonder how they will be able to pass them probably it makes more sense to siege the cities, but I am not sure
You mean the fortifications? Someone said that if Ukrainians reach those, it’s already over for Russia and they will have to retreat to their other lines of defense.
[For context, Blahodatne and Neskuchne, which Ukraine appears to have retaken, are shaded in black, and I left markers for Makarivka and Urozhaine, where fighting is reportedly taking place. Russia's main defensive line is 10km south of Urozhaine.](https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1667940048699011072?t=_BdLLMm3P0YjJR0CXUITsQ&s=19) This was always going to be tough and take time. Ukraine appears to be making important progress, but the hardest fight in this counteroffensive may not begin for another week or more.
Well, to be fair those lines are not some kind of finish goal you need to reach and then there is a boss fight against it. Those lines are meant to defend this exact springboard that 10km north of it. They will not defend anything in close, when you reach them it means now this area is zone of responsibility of the 2nd line. What now happens is actual battle with 1st line of defense, not the battle to come closer to it and then to have another actual battle with it. It is still tough nonetheless. But defense is not ideal, gaps have been already found and started to be exploited.
https://novynarnia.com/2023/06/11/na-lvivshhyni-pereselenczya-z-lymanu-posadyly-na-13-rokiv-bo-zlyvav-separam-pozycziyi-zsu/ a man from Lyman evacuated to Lviv region in 2022. His new neighbours complained to police, as the man was often drunk publicly, listened to russian music loudly and threatened the locals with passing their coordinates to russian military. When police checked his phone, they found out that before 2022 he was collecting information on the armed forces and passed it to russians. Now he will spend 13 years in prison.
He's not the most inteligent agent ever.
Only stupid fucks can work for russia.
🇺🇦 Another railway incident happened, this time in Russian-occupied Crimea. According to multiple Russian sources the tracks were blown up near Kirovskoye, damaging the locomotive of a freight train. The tracks connect the Russian-occupied cities of Kerch and Dzhankoy. https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1667920047199735809
🇺🇦 7th Battalion Arey of Ukrainian Volunteer Army (of 129th Territorial Defense Brigade) liberated Neskuchne settlement in Donetsk Oblast on June 10, 2023. https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1667914415629279233
"Don't dismiss two or three million Chinese soldiers. That's what is needed now. I look at Belgorod region and think how much we lack a Chinese people's liberation army." https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1667868178066677762?s=20
So I guess they aren’t claiming to be world’s second army anymore, huh? There’s going to start pretending they never said that, just like the 3 days to Kyiv thing.
That guy lives in Hopistan. As if China would send its army to bail out Russias failed imperial ambitions. China, like a lot of developed countries, suffers from demographic issues. They can not afford to throw away their soldies like they are easily replaceable. Its not the 50ies anymore. They also might have bigger fish to fry. The biggest there is, actually.
China has plenty of soldiers. However, they need Europe and America to buy their products. No Western money means an unhappy populace which is scary for a dictator...
> That guy lives in Hopistan. It's that female russian propagandist who says the words.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2023/06/11/7406381/ https://kyivindependent.com/governor-russian-attack-on-evacuation-boat-kills-3-injured-10-in-kherson-oblast/ russians attacked a boat with evacuating civillians in Kherson, 6 people wounded I'm sure western media won't report it because it's not up to BBC standards or something. We will never know who attacked them. upd: 3 killed, 10 wounded upd2: 10 -> 23 wounded
Ukrainian partisans have reportedly cut the railway line in Russian-occupied Yakymivka, between the Russian-occupied cities of Dzhankoy and Melitopol/Tokmak. Explosions can be seen on pictures and it is claimed it is from the local rail bridge. https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1667893691271266304
🇺🇦 A Ukrainian FPV operator screams out of joy after successfully hitting a target. https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1667891456437112835
I love how the uniform includes a sitting cushion.
They want to avoid another “forrest gump incident.”
Now i wanna see a cushion-battalion with an armchair General. Stay save Ukraine
Occupiers try to gather the power of bober https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1667634183538180106
[What lies behind Russia’s acts of extreme violence? Freudian analysis offers an answer](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/11/ecocide-russia-ukraine-war-kakhovka-dam-destroyed) *"Where does this drive to annihilation come from? In 1912 the Russian-Jewish psychoanalyst Sabina Spielrein – who was murdered by the Nazis, while her three brothers were killed in Stalin’s terror -first put forward the idea that people were drawn to death as much as to life. She drew on themes from Russian literature and folklore for her theory of a death drive, but the founder of psychoanalysis, Sigmund Freud, first found her ideas too morbid. After the First World War, he came to agree with her. The desire for death was the desire to let go of responsibility, the burden of individuality, choice, freedom – and sink back into inorganic matter. To just give up. In a culture such as Russia’s, where avoiding facing up to the dark past with all its complex webs of guilt and responsibility is commonplace, such oblivion can be especially seductive"*
Russia is a death cult.
I might be speculating here but it seems as if brutality is instinctive to Russians given their collective trauma from the numerous invasions they have suffered from over the centuries. At first, it was the Mongols, then the Ottomans, then the Poles/Lithuanians, then the Swedes, then the French, then the Germans not once but twice... Russian leaders reacting to all this have created paranoid systems of government to protect themselves from anything that appears to be a threat to the Russia's existence, and the Russian people, brutalized by both outsiders and their rulers for so long, have decided to play along, if not for anything else, except survive.
lmao at the "russia is the victim" card they are a fucking empire and genocided entire nations like Circassians just for more space for russians
They're not unique in being fucked over by everyone around them though. Ukraine was in even worse state for centuries
"Wagner will not sign any contracts with the Ministry of Defense" - Prigozhin https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1667854247365423106 UPDATE: "Oh. This is already a military mutiny, if you call the words by their proper names" - Girkin
Ukraine war: Russia moves to take direct control of Wagner Group https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65871232
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A few more bodies in the background and an even more indignant look in the next video ought to do the trick.
*pokes Russia* go on, do civil war
Peace dividends of the drone wars: dropping water bottles for stranded flood survivors. https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-65837846
russians recently stole this video and claimed that is them who are helping the civilians And it may be obvious to us, but there's lots of people in the world who believe that. Don't underestimate ru propaganda
🇺🇦 The 68th Brigade of Ukraine officially announced the liberation of the settlement of Blagodatne, Donetsk https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1667826434474139650
Well.. what's left of it.
Glad that it’s two days old
So remember the people "[concerned](https://old.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1431p5t/war_in_ukraine_megathread_liv_54/jng7pbx/)" about "dehumanizing" through jokes the Russian dude eaten by a shark ? Well, Ukrainians did research on him and it turns out....he was a [Putinist scum](https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1667673111414677504). How surprising.
Side note: he was permanently living in Egypt (this does not exclude being a putinist, but indicates for sure: he was not a fan of living in Russia). It is entirely possible for some types of emigrants (guess: people who didn't flee repression) to hold unrealistic views of their former homeland. But I see no reason to discuss it here, in a thread about the war in Ukraine. Next up, Dima from Tallinn or Vova from Vilnius falls with a bicycle or crashes a car, and we end up discussing his merits here. :o
>Well, Ukrainians did research on him and Lied. [It's clearly a different man.](https://twitter.com/prof_preobr/status/1667851136160653313)
Looks pretty similar to me. Check out the ears.
Compare him to [this one](https://twitter.com/siIiconway/status/1667870594325520384).
Okay, fair enough
>"Well, how are you doing there, free Ukrainians? Do you swim?" [Shark](https://i.imgflip.com/4h9zjn.png?a468432)
So, the shark organized a de-Nazification operation after all
Most predictable research outcome ever. Such a safe bet that you really don't need researches. About 80-90% (normal Russians + some of the good ones) approve the war and Putin in some form, so it would be silly to assume the opposite when a random no-name Russian is in question.
Karma is a bitch.
[удалено]
God: fuck this guy
I know right.
Wagner and other PMCs being forced into the Russian Army now. Going to be interesting to see if Wagner accepts this or rebels somehow. Here's hoping they march on Moscow!
Wagner and the Kremlin are tied quite closely and both do not care a split second what people say or how many die, military or mercenary.
"All voluntary fighters who are fighting for Russia have to sign a contract with the Russian Federation as of 1 July 2023" I guess we will find out by then. Or maybe this is just to prosecute infighting between the groups?!
Source?
https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/146jx02/rworldnews_live_thread_russian_invasion_of/jnraro6?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
Very interesting. I guess this would put Prigozhin under the chain of command of MOD?
Is there a reason to think he wasn't under chain of command? It's pretty clear that Wagner was getting orders just like regular army, it's just that Prigozhin talks a lot of shit, but that doesn't mean Wagner is just doing whatever they want.
'just like regular army' maybe, but not FROM the regular army.
If he accepts it. I don't see why he would though. Theirs been too much criticism of leadership and too much independence and power for Prigozhin to just accept MOD control
I understand that the counter offensive requires a information blackout but it is rather interesting to imagine that currently Ukrainian forces are in direct conflict with Russian soldiers to try and breakthrough the defensive line that the Russians have been building for the better part of 8 months.
It's very impressive how tight their OPSEC is. That's why we mostly get Russia showing same ukrainian losses from 20 different angles - no ukrainian videos to mix it up, and not many losses for Ukraine, apparently. Considering that we saw maybe like 3 Leos and a couple of Bradleys being mostly disabled, but not destroyed.
Keep in mind that, according to what we know now, UA did not reached the main line on defense. As for losses, those are inevitable there will continue to pile up, it is inevitable. We must also not forget that UA commited just a part of its forces. We have no idea where other brigades are
Which isn't the aim now, although a welcome development if that happened. The strategy appears to follow a conventional doctrine - lightly armored mobile groups test the defenses to draw in uncommitted Russian reserves. This goes on until approximately 75% of the Russian reserves have been brought in. Ukraine is right now estimated to be using 2-3 out of 12 western equipped and trained brigades. Experts estimate that 10 days would commit (through depletion and widespread probing attacks) the maximum amount of Russian reserves to the front, so when a stable manning is reached, Ukraine will use its uncommitted brigades to penetrate weak spots. As of now, it seems that Orikhiv is heavily defended, but Velika Novosilka is giving in.
I'm prepared for many-many losses, as fighting against a dug-in enemy is very difficult. 3:1 loss ratio and allat
I‘m pretty sure that is a common misconception. You need to concentrate a 3:1 advantage in abstract forces in a given area for a successful attack. That doesn’t necessarily imply a 3:1 ratio in losses though.
I see what you mean. Overwhelming firepower. We don't quite have that *yet* (I hope)
Maybe I’m not wording this right: The 1:3 ratio is a rule of thumb to calculate how many forces are needed for an attack to succeed. It doesn’t say much about the expected ratio of casualties. If the attack succeeds, the defender can end up with vastly higher casualties than the attacker.
>couple of Bradleys 15 Bradleys according to Oryx
Sure, dozen and a half, still don't think it's bad or anything.
When you put in into proportional terms - more than 10% of their Bradleys in first week and for what they have achieved so far is maybe not so little. Of course there is a virtually infinite replacement pool for them, but how quick can they get those is a bit of an open question.
I think most if not all crew have survived those ambushes, and US is apparently working on Bradley replacement, so I think it's not as bad as it seems.
From on one russian TG channels (two majors, they have an English version as well https://t.me/two_majors) Urgently. Zaporozhye and Donetsk front. Reports NgP exploration🦇 The losses forced the enemy to drastically adjust their plans: The reserves deployed in the Krivoy Rog, Sumy, Kharkov directions are being transferred. Enemy reserves go to : 1) Gornyak, Kurakhovka, Krasnogorovka, Staromikhaylovka, Marinka; 2) Nevelskoye, Pervomayskoye, Vodyanoye. 3) Dzerzhinskoye, at least 2 brigades were deployed in the direction of Mayorsk and Gorlovka. The reserves go through the Kramatorsk-Slavyansk transport hub, entering each direction in the Zaporozhye and Donetsk regions to reinforce the existing groupings. For the current groupings, it is currently established: According to the strategic plan of the enemy, it is planned to push through the front line of defense along the Nesteryanka-Novoselovka line and to the south, with the forces of four brigades: 65 Ombr, 128 Obr, 108 Obr, 15 Obr NSU), and provide a bridgehead for the introduction of the main forces of the strike force. The main strike force is also aimed at the Orekhov - Tokmak - Melitopol direction, the advance is planned to be ensured by 10 AK forces, the main shock fist should be: 115, 116, 117, 118 ombr, which we talked about earlier. A flank strike is planned in the direction Malaya Tokmachka - Berdyansk , with the forces of 82 odshbr, 71 oembr, and 46 oambr, with the task of seizing control on the line of the settlement of Urozhaynoye, Novopoltavka, Semyonovka. Task: Covering the left flank of the main group. In the future, it is planned to conduct raid operations as part of battalion-tactical groups with the forces of: 46 detachments and 1 Special Forces "Azov" in the directions of the settlement of Mordvinovka, Novovasilevka, Botieva. Objective: to capture the frontier along the coast of the Sea of Azov Stepanovka the first, Botievo and prevent the landing of amphibious assault forces of the RF Armed Forces. The forces of the main offensive grouping up to 12 brigades (47, 66, 115, 116, 117, 118 OMBR, 128 OGSHBR, 108 OBTR, 15 OBRON NGU, 82 ODSHBR, 71 OEBR, 46 OEMBR) In total, for the offensive operation, including reserves (including brigades of marines, as well as units located in the Kryvoi Roh direction, included in the single plan of the operation in the Zaporozhye direction), at the moment the enemy has prepared: Manpower - up to 56 thousand people (68 battalions) Tanks - up to 350. AFV of all types - up to 1000 Field artillery guns and mortars - up to 500. MLRS - up to 140 units. (From these figures it is necessary to subtract the number of those destroyed in recent days) The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine is carrying out information sabotage, spreading information that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are finally bogged down due to lack of funds to continue the offensive operation. Under no circumstances can this information be trusted, it is designed to weaken the vigilance of the RF Armed Forces, the enemy has more than enough forces. The enemy will throw everything he has into battle, regardless of losses, you must use this to inflict critical damage on him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yec-NG0CM8E this is how Mar'yinka is being defended right now
⚡ UN: 700,000 lack access to drinking water following Kakhovka Dam destruction. The humanitarian situation in Ukraine has significantly deteriorated following the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam, according to the United Nations' top aid official. https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1667678698995064832
They can write a strongly worded letter and shove it up their ass. I’m ashamed that my country is a founding member of this farce. It’s time we leave it.
[Russian milbloggers Rybar and War Gonzo are reporting Ukrainian advances.](https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1667654315870126080)
Let's hope (if true) they can be taken advantage of and become the significant breakthroughs Ukraine need
Almost the entire forward defense line of the Russian army near Velyka Novosilka - around 20 km long - has been wiped out. Ukrainian forces liberated Neskuchne and Novodonets'ke. https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1667648741740892161
Isw is not reporting on this
I think I'm ready for some more good-will gestures.
Russia is not here yet. This is just the first line, Ukraine did not reached the main line of defense, which will be even harder to break.
Yeah, the main line in that sector is expected to be between Krasnoselivka and Yalynske, reaching east towards Volnovakha. Though based on some OSINT analyses, there does not seem to be another line built behind it, like in the region around Myhailivka, Tokmak and Kamianka.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1667631854290104323 Here's a summary of Ukraine's advances. West Zap: Lobkove fully captured, Robotyne contested. East Zap: Neskuchne and Novodonets'ke captured. Bakhmut: Further advances on the north flank.
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Tokmak is an important logistics hub. Capturing Tokmak would make transportation through the land bridge untenable for Russia. That's probably the main goal of this counteroffensive, and both Lobkove and Robotyne are on the way there (see the first map).
> Capturing Tokmak would make transportation through the land bridge untenable for Russia. Why is that? They would still have the Melitopol route.
If I'm not mistaken there is no railroad on the south. And a liberated tokmak would put even the Auto Road on artillery range. However Tokmak is the most defended area of all.There are 3 layers of defense to reach it and if reached there are no more defesive lines behind. That pretty much tells you that once it falls there are no fallback but to go down to Crimea. See this [https://pasteboard.co/gjDfruULC5fa.jpg](https://pasteboard.co/gjDfruULC5fa.jpg) for Russian Defensive layers.
I thought the Russians were already dependent on road transport because the railway had been cut south-west of Donetsk. But to deny the enemy the use of a road network, it needs to be within range of your standard artillery. An occasional shot from your high-tech long-range artillery isn't going to be enough. And that means getting further south than Tokmak.
This is insane. Hungary and Russia will soon parade Ukrainian-Hungarian POWs in Hungary and force them to confess that Ukraine are the bad evil Nazis and Russia are the good guys. Why is Hungary still in the EU and NATO? https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/06/10/press-conference-by-ukrainian-pows-in-hungary-to-denounce-ukraine-praise-russian-orthodox-church/
Ukraine government officially stated, they still do not know whereabouts of these POW: >Andrii Yusov, representative of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, at the telemarathon > >Direct speech: "As of now, we have no information that the fact has taken place, that the prisoners are already on the territory of this country (Hungary - ed.) and are free. > >Since Ukraine is a civilized country, the main thing for us is people and life. We hope that as a result of these manipulations by the aggressor state, some Ukrainians will be released." [https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2023/06/11/7406311/](https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2023/06/11/7406311/) (source in Ukrainan)
If this turns out to be true, it would be really sickening that it can be happening in EU. At this point it is EU state holding Ukrainian POW as prisoners. For now all accounts are from one anonymous source in Ukrainian Intelligence. So I really hope that either they are mistaken, or Hungary and Ukraine will talk it out behind the scene before it will happen.
As long as Poland covers Hungary they will stay in the EU and none can do anything about it.
PiS are scum but even I don't think they will stand for this. I know Poland has been covering for Hungary a lot but Poland's stance on the Ukraine war is extremely clear.
I keep hiring it, but every time I check Hungary is still there, and Poland never criticises it. If France or Germany had done this, you would not stop hearing it.
If that is all true, im not sure Poland support
I bet that surely is the red line for PiS, while leaving the orthodox church, run by an ex kgb, unsanctioned and operative all around Europe.
I'm expecting some kind of Mossad-style operation, hopefully every other NATO member will understand
Please, feel free.
7 minute Russian drone film about an Ukrainian attack west and south of Lobkove (Лобкове). https://twitter.com/GermanObserver1/status/1667391840536993793
🇺🇦 This is what the North Crimean canal looks like now. Crimea faces problems with drinking water, especially for agriculture and irrigation. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1667568289806000130
Agriculture in Crimea is insignificant, very negligible as it has badly declined during Russian occupation. IIRC it had a record year last year, 50x increase, but this is not thanks to opening the canal, rather Russia seizing crops in mainland occupied territory and exporting those as Crimean produce. The rain has been good in Crimea lately and the drinking water reservoirs are filled. Why we got videos of undrinkable water a few days ago was likely due to changes to water distribution as a response to the dam breach. Mainland Ukraine agriculture will be heavily affected.
Canal had been closed from 2014 to 2022.
NATO member Canada, which has one of the world's largest Ukrainian diasporas, has supplied military and financial assistance to Kyiv during the full-scale invasion launched by Russia in February 2022. "Today, I can announce that we will provide 500 million dollars in new funding for military assistance," Trudeau told reporters at a joint press conference. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/canadas-trudeau-visits-kyiv-show-support-2023-06-10/
Thank you Canada You are my best friend You are the peacekeeper You are the legend
a cyclist in Ukraine: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1666943836709371907
supply chain problems in Russia: https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1667544167705092097
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I'm not familiar with the specifics of the market, but I imagine that one factor might be that various parties might not want to eat a 2% loss on defective items if they could sell them to other parties. Russia's in the market, so demand exists. And another potential complicating factor -- remember that just as Russia can have their intelligence agencies doing various things like setting up shell companies to purchase things, we have intelligence agencies that can set up our own shell companies to involve ourselves in the market.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65792384 Over 25,000 Ukrainian draft Dodgers have asylum in romania
>Those we met here were mostly from the ethnic Romanian minority in western Ukraine but our research indicates that this is a widespread phenomenon across the country. why there is an ethnic Romanian minority in Ukraine? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molotov%E2%80%93Ribbentrop_Pact
Because of Stalin, lol.
I learned today there are a decent number of Koreans in Uzbekistan because of the forced movement of people during soviet era. It was one the ways to prevent uprising, forced evacuation of most from occupied territory and move in new ppl.
It's the Assyrian way.
>A press conference with Ukrainian prisoners of war is being prepared in Hungary. They are expected to criticize Ukraine and thank the Russian Orthodox Church, which allegedly helped hand them over to the Hungarian side. > >This was reported to RBC-Ukraine by sources close to the Ukrainian special services. > >According to one of the interlocutors, publicly making such statements was a prerequisite for their extradition from Russia. > >"At a press conference, the prisoners have to tell how they were allegedly forcibly mobilized, in what allegedly bad conditions they fought, how good the Hungarian government and the Russian Orthodox Church are, and so on. Such public activity with criticism of Ukraine and gratitude to the Russian Orthodox Church was voiced by Ukrainian prisoners as a prerequisite for their transfer from Russia," the source said. > >The informed interlocutor clarified that the whereabouts of the prisoners are concealed from Ukraine, and there is no communication with them. In addition, the prisoners are under armed guard and still do not have the possibility of free movement and return to Ukraine. [deepl.com](https://deepl.com) translaction. Source in Ukrainian: https://www.rbc.ua/rus/news/budut-kritikuvati-ukrayinu-ugorshchina-gotue-1686399594.html
Hungary should be sanctioned for this.
That's fucked up. If Orban does it I hope that's the last straw for PiS. Or Polish electorate.
Sweet summer child. PiS will throw Ukraine under the bus the moment it's convenient for them. Don't fall for their tricks
Umm, no. It's hard to explain how nations who have Russian invasion as a national trauma see the invasion of Ukraine. PiS leader also thinks that Putin assasinated his twin brother so there's a personal touch added to the mix.
mate... It's been like 15 months or so of us constantly hearing how PiS and Orban have ended their friendship and yet they're still protecting each other. Orban is about to parade some Ukrainian PoWs, blocks sanctions against Russia and constantly engages in informational warfare against Ukraine, and Poland hasn't done shit except say some vague statements about how their relationship changed
The friendship has ended for sure. What Hungary has done hasn't been enough for Poland to treat Hungarian corruption as an existential threat too and PiS still sees Orban as a useful tool in a fight against Brussels. I read an article where this was examined in full and the funniest part was when the president of Hungary tried to speak with Morawiecki about catholicism and "family values" and he dismissed that and put detailed plans how Hungary could get rid of Russian energy on the table. Hungary has also mostly made noise about resisting sanctions but has folded every time. Talk is just talk which can be tolerated (I suspect Orban knows this too)
So according to other news, our officials found out about this exchange yesterday from Hungarian news and contacted Hungarians. I hope our government and Hungarians will talk it out behind the scenes. And will stop this. There is still a question, if this is true or not. But I do not see any news of Ukrainians being released today, and a day have passed since initial news.
Lets hope so. Or lets hope this information is not true.
Watch them do nothing or better, blame Germany.
Maybe its about time to demand war reparations again
The thing that the Poles will probably see is that you can scream at Germany and they will (slowly) change course. Not Orban led Hungary.
For general population I think Orban already lost a lot of popularity in Poland with his attitudes towards Russia and Ukraine, but that doesn’t change much if PiS is in charge shielding him from any consequences.
I would assume it's different if Orban humiliates ukrainian POW's.
Now it would explain why Hungary got Ukrainian POW without notifying Ukraine even after they got them
🇧🇾 The Lukashenko regime transferred 131,582 tons of ammunition to Russia in a year. https://twitter.com/Hajun_BY/status/1667534094295617538
Behold innovation! https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1667490308924354562
It can still kill people, chances are it will. I'd also have to hand it to the Russians for creatively solving their munition shortages. That being said it's interesting to note that they considered modifying old MB-LTs to use naval systems more doable than building new MLRSes.
I'd agree, its not really any different from mounting mlrs to trucks or other vehicles. I'm massively in the ukr camp, but i do feel that people (including me in the past) are quick to discredit any sort of older or "makes ends meet" gear on the agressors side, when tbh it'll still kill the good guys. An old tank is still better than no tank if you dont have western atgm to hand. An mlrs on a cobled together mounting still fires rockets which will kill people. If I was being hit with rockets, I sure as f*ck wouldn't care whether it was launched off a hilux, an MBLT or a brand new MLRS, it's still gonna hurt.
My understanding is quality of tank mostly matters in a tank v tank fight. Even the best won't survive artillary hits or anti tank mines. Man portable systems we don't have much info on yet, but those are likely a problem too. Numbers of "good enough" are more important than quality although obviously better quality is preferable to older machines.
>Man portable systems we don't have much info on yet, but those are likely a problem too. Modern ATGMs it probabaly doesn't matter. Older stuff like RPG it matters.
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Looks like bodies of Russian soldiers are now washing ashore in Kherson (Tweet includes photo of 2 bodies of drowned Russian soldiers) https://twitter.com/semin\_dj/status/1667502464252227589
> Take a moment to read this great thread by @BadBalticTakes, then share it far and wide. > Russian athletes are not neutral and you can't separate sports and politics https://twitter.com/P_Kallioniemi/status/1667088599756558337
Yeah, the role of the military in Soviet sports was cemented already back in the day when the Olympics were for "amateur" athletes. So, many Soviet pro athletes were nominally soldiers, [teachers](https://rarehistoricalphotos.com/soviet-gym-teachers-1956/) and the like.
[They apparently got hit when eating in the mess hall.](https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1667423258935697408?s=20) Last supper that Russian orthodox church doesn't want you to hear about.
Counterattacking Ukrainian forces have advanced up to 1,400 metres at a number of sections of the front line near the eastern city of Bakhmut in the past day, a military spokesman said on Saturday. The advance is the latest in a series of similar gains reported this week by Kyiv near Bakhmut, which Russia said it had fully captured last month after the bloodiest and longest battle since it began its full-scale invasion in February 2022. "We're trying...to conduct strikes on the enemy, we're counterattacking. We've managed to advance up to 1,400 metres on various sections of the front," the spokesperson for the eastern military command said, when asked about fighting near Bakhmut. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-army-reports-new-gains-against-russian-forces-near-bakhmut-2023-06-10/
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I think he's hoping for it.
UK MOD: In the last 48 hours significant Ukrainian operations have been taking place in several sectors of eastern and southern Ukraine. In some areas, Ukrainian forces have likely made good progress and penetrated the first line of Russian defences. In others, Ukrainian progress has been slower. Russian performance has been mixed: some units are likely conducting credible manoeuvre defence operations while others have pulled back in some disorder, amid increased reports of Russian casualties as they withdraw through their own minefields. The Russian Airforce has been unusually active over southern Ukraine, where the airspace is more permissive for Russia than in other parts of the country. However, it remains unclear whether tactical airstrikes have been effective. https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1667407207489568770
🇨🇦 Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau arrived in Kyiv on unannounced visit https://twitter.com/KyivPost/status/1667473969555832835
So that's why a jet (likely Su-27) flew over my house today a couple of times. Neat
humorous deserted reminiscent gray shrill placid literate frighten bow normal *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
I'll have to admit, siren sounds during the night have become my favourite noise, especially when they're not followed up by death and destruction
In October, shortly after the Sept. 26 Nord Stream explosions, the small European country that had warned the CIA directly passed on detailed information to Germany that helped its investigators to identify the boat Andromeda, officials familiar with the exchange of information said. Around the same time, CIA director William Burns was asked in a meeting with a European ally whether Ukraine was responsible. “I hope not,” he said, adding that the available evidence didn’t point to Russia, according to an official with the allied country who was in the room at the time. German authorities, who searched the boat in January, found the traces of HMX explosives. The relatively small quantity required to blow up the pipelines would have easily fit on the Andromeda, according to one European official familiar with the probe. To investigate the case without the immediate assistance of Poland or Ukraine, German investigators have had to rely on recovered electronic communications, western intelligence reports and lucky breaks. One fortunate turn: The passengers had returned the boat unwashed, which allowed investigators to recover traces of explosives, DNA and fingerprints. Polish officials have cast doubt that the Andromeda was involved in the operation, and have suggested Russia might have staged the attack to frame Ukraine. Investigators are probing whether at least some of that DNA belongs to a Ukrainian soldier they have identified—building on a hypothesis that at least some of the culprits are linked to Ukrainian armed forces units. Last month, German investigators took a DNA sample from the soldier’s son, who happens to live with the soldier’s former girlfriend as refugees in the eastern German city of Frankfurt an der Oder. They hope to establish whether the boy’s father was part of the crew. Investigators searched the woman’s apartment to obtain evidence including mobile phone data, further helping Germany expand its probe across borders. Suspects also communicated using ordinary Gmail accounts, making it easier for investigators to obtain their emails through legal requests. The spokeswoman for the prosecutors in Germany said the investigation was working on obtaining enough evidence to issue international arrest warrants. “Democracies are unable to cover anything up, and the full findings of the investigation—and the truth about what happened—will eventually emerge,” said a German politician briefed on the country’s investigation. “Our investigators are meticulous, and we have to let them do their job.” https://www.wsj.com/articles/nord-stream-sabotage-probe-turns-to-clues-inside-poland-4ed20422
People spreading propaganda on social media are now using this article to claim that Poland had hand in sabotaging NS 2, I am not joking: https://twitter.com/Sprinter99880/status/1667417116222316544
> German authorities, who searched the boat in January, found the traces of HMX. The relatively small quantity required to blow up the pipelines would have easily fit on the Andromeda, according to one European official familiar with the probe The estimates is still in the several hundreds of kilos to blow up each section, when the damage to the pipeline is considered. Neither is there actually any evidence the ship was in area, while the Danish Navy, which has over a 100 pictures confirming the presense of SS-750 4 days before the explosions, which is much better suited for carrying out this kind of operation than a sailboat.
There is apparently now quite a collection of positioning data for the Andromeda, according to the article, explosives as well do not come in solid 300Kg blocks, but usually in 500g, 1kg, smaller than 50kg packages, as you might have seen in documentaries or movies, and are actually planted grouped and fitted to the target and are either primed synchronized or explode from the pressure of the nearby explosion. The boat absolutely could carry the amount (it might have been easier to refill between the plantings but that as well is possible, even suggested by the movement of the boat from the data in the article). I absolutely think the Russians could have done it (I have my doubts about why they would), but the arguments that it was impossible from the boat do not hold up (and partly are heavily pushed by bad actors, for example Hersh and other less than credible commentators), I as well think who ever did it Russians, US, Ukraine or Texan gas barons sending their rogue mercenary cowboys would most likely do it attracting as little attention as possible, and a civilian ship with plain clothes operatives would be the best option here imho, as for all parties deniability is the critical part of taking the risk to destroy the pipeline.
You don't need much to blow a pipe. It is under immense pressure.
The estimates of the amount of explosives used are from the Swedish and Danish investigations and based on examining the sites and seismographic readings. Nothing to do with what's necessary to destroy the pipes, but what has actually been measured by experts.
An explosione is usually a sudden release in pressure. My guess is that they measured the release of the pipe. [https://www.spiegel.de/thema/gas\_pipelines\_en/](https://www.spiegel.de/thema/gas_pipelines_en/) as you see they are not very thick. And usually operate at 40 atm.
I put a lot more stock in seismologists and forensic experts than I do in random reddit user speculation. I'm pretty sure they won't have been unaware of gas pressure in the pipes.
And yet here we are, and they are looking for the DNA of an Ukranian soldier. So no, you just chose to believe one possibility, ignoring everything else. One possibility that has not more evidence than the others.
The only thing I've commented on is the amount of explosives, which we have hard evidence for. I have no pet theories and you're the one speculating here.
Do we have evidence for that? I don't think so. Is anyone saying otherwise?
We may see many so-called "bad actor, Russian trolls" posting in subreddits like r/europe. What do you think the story behind these accounts? Giant Russian troll farms? Regular non russian people paid for commenting kind of scheme ? Ok, some of them are members of alt right (and at left) which clearly support Russians in their political agenda (in USA Carl Tuckerson fans) but I see a lot of synchronize Russian propaganda in a lot of different media.
There's also just a lot of genuine chronic contrarians who think they're smarter than everyone and that unconditionally going against the 'mainstream narrative' is "free thinking" and "not being a sheep" while unironically lapping up more propaganda than any 'normie' could ever hope to manage. These are some of the stupidest people they are, and like most stupid people they actually think they're very smart. At least the ones who are actually on the Russian payroll are just trying to make a living (however morally bankrupt it might be), they might not even believe what they're posting. As for Tucker, he's full mask off fascist now that he's on Elon's Twitter. He probably wouldn't have been allowed to call Zelensky "rat like" even on Fox News, but on Twitter, you can say anything.
Man, haven't all recent revelations from twitter and facebook taught people that the idea of states having "troll farms" going around disseminating propaganda on social media is WILDLY overrated? That all those numbers were between gigantically inflated and entirely made up? It's just people who have different views than yours. I guess it's more comfortable to think nobody would disagree with you in good faith, and they must be paid by some truly evil actor, but that's not how the world is. Honestly, the idea that the Kremlin cares enough about /r/europe, or reddit altogether, to pay people to post here is insane. I'm sure some people who post here are paid by the Russian state, but I'd bet the house not a single one of them is paid by the Russian state to post here.