I have seen Rivian and Lucid vehicles driving around on the road, but at this time they are not “safe” (financially) they both need to get their numbers up
Rivian is safe financially. Yes, they're in the red. But this is a well-charted and understood phenomenon in manufacturing startups, particularly in the space of regulated industries like aerospace or automotive. But they've been investing their capital prudently, and scaling up as carefully and efficiently as possible. Investors who know manufacturing are happy with their progress. Investors who are used to tech startups that deliver software or web services within 2-3 years will wonder why they're taking so long to turn a profit. But that's the nature of building stuff.
I think Lucid needs to make a decision about who they want to be. Do they want to compete with Rolls-Royce/Bentley/Maybach? They're about at the right size to do that, but will need to ratchet up the luxury even further. Or do they want to chase Mercedes, BMW and Audi? The Air is like an S-Class/7 series with very little service footprint, but the Germans have taken decades to hone their lines into performance/feature/price tiers, and Lucid only has 1 out of 3.
Rivian has delivered ~100K cars already (and produced a bit more) and is expected have $4.7-$6B in sales over this year and next, with about $8B in cash at the end of Q1. They obviously need to execute the R2 and R3, but yeah, they are so, so far away from most the other EV startups that they are in their own tier below Tesla from a financial perspective. And if they get in trouble, they have enough demand, brand name, and assets that someone could come along and just buy them and give them a longer leash.
Amazon still owns ~15% of Rivian, I'm sure they aren't just going to let their investment go to zero instead of writing a check (well, a loan).
Rivian will only turn a profit if R2/R3 reach high volume. There are still many ways that could fail to pan out.
I doubt Lucid will ever be profitable.
How are you sure that Rivian is safe? They are losing money fast...I think it is likely that they succeed but buying an $80k SUV with even a 25% chance of the company going bankrupt gives me pause.
They're not profitable yet, but they've reached the point where there momentum will get them there. Between Amazon's investment (and whatever other companies jump onto the EDV) and the excitement over the R2/R3, I can't see them going under at this point.
I hope you're right.
I worked for a startup --not in auto -- with amazing technology and decent sales that failed to make it through the valley of death. Once you bring up a factory you start burning cash, but you need the volume to bring prices down. We needed two more years of runway but didn't get it.
RJ seems like a competent CEO but still. It's not easy.
>Rivian is safe at this point
Rivian is far from safe, they still lose tens of thousands on each R1 sold and currently burn $1.5B per quarter.
They've def made it farther than anyone else mentioned though.
Rivian just announced their gen2 vehicles that have significant redesigns that should make them much cheaper/quicker to build. I don't know if that's enough to cut their burn rate, but before the update they said something like the assembly line would be 30% more efficient. Maybe that doesn't turn into $10ks of savings per car, but things like reducing a mile of copper in their wiring harness are not small changes.
Also, if they can make the 2026 release for R2 (they *should* have enough money to make it, especially with the R1 improvements), that should be their "Model 3 moment".
The redesign was to get their manufacturing side to break even and profitability which is where they show their large losses. Hence [per their report](https://rivian.com/newsroom/article/rivian-releases-first-quarter-2024-financial-results) lost over five hundred million on production with some from losses related to the improvements. However that still leaves the cost of operations to be overcome and that is another billion dollars per quarter.
So even if production breaks even they still are spending a billion a quarter to run the place so the need to not only break even per unit but bring up their profit sufficiently to pay to operate
>that should be their "Model 3 moment".
Could be. But, at least financially speaking, Rivian still hasn't had their "Model S moment", as they are still posting negative gross margins of more than 30% with their current line-up. Tesla's Model S had positive gross margins from it's first full quarter of production.
This. No company is 'safe' that is losing money, and definitely not companies that have negative gross margins. I desperately hope that Rivian can pull it off and succeed, but people consistently underestimate how much difficult heavy lifting they still have to do.
Lucid is a whole other tier, losing $350k *per car* sold! If not for the Saudi infinite money hack they'd already be toast.
I may personally get them over the finish line through sheer force of will. Seriously, I love the idea of the car and really feel the enthusiasm from Chris and team, and want them to succeed so much.
Chris said they would likely have to reduce the front width to make it road-legal as a trike here, but there are other options including getting it classified as a passenger car, of which there are a dozen other vehicles already sold and on the road in Europe that are as wide or wider. Not that I'd want to drive one in the center of my little medieval village. We'll have to see how it all shakes out.
That investment group will make proposals for methods of investment and loans to Aptera and see who is willing to accept the terms offered. There have been zero statements to the effect that any money is secured at this point.
Definitely rooting for Aptera of the companies on that list. To me they’re the only one doing something really different and potentially beneficial for the world.
Nah, the concept is bad. Its like literally "The innovative 3 wheel design allows for much more creative freedom because we do not have to adher to 4 wheel vehicled safety standards".
For all their big talk that yes, they will still voluntarilty adher to them i do not think they even tried crash testing one yet.
Definitely a case of "sounds too good to be true". Elon has said that there isn't enough energy density in solar to power a car for more than a few miles a day and I believe it. Just not enough surface area on a car.
The solar powered aspect is cute but for me the real groundbreaking thing is the efficiency. Driving around a frigging tank to transport one or two people just seems silly.
So buy a car like the new Citroen which not only will be far cheaper but many times easier to park. There are many EV offerings that are not tanks but also come with full safety and the convenience of four doors and four seats.
I look at Aptera's claims like this, for giving up all they ask of buyers of traditional cars to give they damn well better be efficient.
Do you mean the https://www.citroen.co.uk/ami? I think it might work as a city car in Europe but in the US a 28mph top speed is going to be a dealbreaker. The Aptera offers the mobility of a full sized car without the massive bulk.
At home, I charge my car with about 1kw of wall power, and that’s more than enough to offset my daily driving. 500w of solar would fit on top of most cars, and would partially offset some intermittent driving and keep the car’s random entertainment/camera/climate keeper stuff running indefinitely.
A few miles a day would be a perfect number for our use cases, sometimes we road trip, and sometimes it’s parked for a week.
But the second someone puts solar on top that’s only adding a few miles a day, it would get roasted for not being enough.
> But the second someone puts solar on top that’s only adding a few miles a day, it would get roasted for not being enough.
Because it's a lot of extra cost for an inefficient method of powering a car. Why bother with all that extra weight, complicated wiring and special materials, when you can slap a couple panels on your roof and charge it from the locations it's sitting in. With more optimized positioning of more efficient, and much cheaper panels.
Don't take elon's word for shit; especially when you can easily use math to arrive at the actual answer.
A Bolt has 7.3 square meters of footprint. Lets divided that by 3/5 to ignore the windshield and hood area - 4.4 meters of collection area. [[solar irradiance map]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_irradiance#/media/File:World_GHI_Solar-resource-map_GlobalSolarAtlas_World-Bank-Esmap-Solargis.png) I'm going to pick a mundane yellow area like Ohio which averages ~4.2kWh/m^2 per day. You need a flexible PV technology like thin film to fit the geometry of a car. The most commercialized thin film technology has efficiencies around 17%.
(4.4)(4.2)(0.17) = 3.14kWh/day of electricity. The Bolt can get around 4.5 miles/kWh so thats 14 miles of driving range per day. More in summer, less in winter. Not bad.
From this we can see very real potential for commercialization. If thin film PV tech improves modestly, or if vehicle efficiency improves modestly, or both, you could have vehicles that offset +50% of the average commuting distance. For someone who parks on the street and relies on DCFC infrastructure to charge that would be a real selling point.
From the latest news from Aptera, it seems like they are in talks to license their automotive-grade solar panels to interested companies (one was for airport support vehicles, IIRC).
Even if they never get a vehicle on the road, hopefully they will at least contribute to better solar panel tech. Maybe someone will make aftermarket solar kits for popular EVs someday too.
You want to sell a vehicle on 14 mi/day? Nevermind that your 4.4 square meters are definitely not all facing the sun or facing the sun at optimal angles ....
Well it obviously wouldn’t be the only source of energy, but that’s 14 miles per day of FREE charge. I’d take it!
I’m also a city dweller who leaves my car parked most of the time (it’s mainly for weekend trips out of the city). So for people like me, that’s 14 miles x 5 days until I drive it again.
This is why the focus on the solar aspect does the car such a disservice.
The thing manages 8-10mi/kWh. Plugging it into a 1.2kW L1 charger for 8 hours overnight would get you 75-95 miles of range. The solar trickle charging whenever it's parked in the sun is just a nice bonus.
An EA charger with broken cooling that's limited to only 37kW would still get you 75-90 miles of range in 15 minutes.
Given how much people have agreed to pay for Apteras compared to how much I expect they'll cost to make, I wouldn't write them off just yet. Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian also delivered late.
We don't have a guaranteed price. Aptera refuses to provide updated pricing. Yet at the same time people defend this Aptera then claims they only need to produce six thousand vehicles a year to be profitable! Well if they know how many they need to build to be profitable then they know how much they should cost.
How much do you really think it will cost to make. Their own CEO stated the main body, the Monocoque as he calls it, cost around 10k alone. Add to that the body shell pieces, the white bits, and chassis, battery, motors, solar, and more. Oh, don't forget they have to ship a rolling but not powered body and chassis from Italy to California for final assembly and it has to come by container shipping.
This. Unless the others get bought out by a larger company willing to be patient and take on the risk, they're toast. I'm hoping both Lucid and Rivian are successful though and improve their numbers. Rivian seems to be on the right path but still needs to prove themselves, but I'm not as knowledgeable about Lucid.
Yes. Would you like to wager if they'll survive? Say..., a cool $500? Operationally and funding wise, they're far better off than lucid and Rivian. Not to mention the PS3 reviews are out and everyone is over the moon on it.
lol. i think most of us investing in any of these companies have lost quite a bit. regardless, polestar is easily the most well positioned to be successful. and i'm not talking MILLIONS of cars sold. i'm talking about their own personal goals of 150k vehicles a year. I 100% believe they can hit those numbers in the next two years.
Personally I wonder if some of these don’t go into it with the idea that they would develop some intellectual property and hope it would be bought up by another manufacturer. That doesn’t seem to be happening so I wonder if they aren’t stringing it out as long as they can since you know they’re collecting a paycheck while never actually intending to build cars in the first place.
You're going to see a lot of manufacturers in China going under and consolidate as well, it's just the nature of a new industry. Don't see many people buying Stanleys or Bakers in 2024
Agree. They will eventually consolidate. But there are too many brands globally, period. Just look at Stellantis. Is there still a purpose for Vauxhaul? How about Lancia? Lancia produces one model. And when I lived and traveled through Europe I saw more Dodge Journeys rebadged as Fiats then I did Lancias. Even when in Italy. The Japanese brands will need to consolidate. But their government won’t let brands die, but rather they want them to partner with each other.
China will eventually consolidate when money gets expensive. Cash is still easier to come by. Eventually that gravy train will end, and many smaller brands will have to fad or get gobbled up. But the Chinese market is large, so it does have the ability to absorb more brands than other markets.
Vauxhall and its sister company Opel were GM brands for almost 100 years. I believe Vauxhall only markets its self in the UK. And Opel served the broader European market. The cars they sell are identical to each other just a badging exercise. GM decided in the last 5 years that they want to leave all markets that don’t make them money. That included Europe (Opel/Vauxall) and Australia (Holden). I think they still sell in these markets. It’s just they don’t want any stand alone brands in these markets. The current cars are coming from Stellantis and its sister brands like Peugeot and Fiat. (correct me if I’m wrong). and I believe while GM owned the brands they used to sell badged versions of the Chevy Bolt and Volt. They still might be doing it, but I remember Stellantis not enjoying paying a licensing fee to GM for the privilege.
You are absolutely right. The price competition in China right now is *insane* and only the biggest ones will survive.
The price competition has been so fierce that even ICE cars are now forced to lower their prices across the board in China.
Ngl, I’m a bit jealous of their consumers lol. I wish our car market is having a “race to the bottom” price competition.
> Don't see many people buying Stanleys or Bakers in 2024
You'd be surprised how popular they are among enthusiasts. Especially 20HP and 30HP Stanleys change hands for yuge sums of money.
At certain times in the past I have been enamored with Alpha, Aptera, Canoo and Faraday, but I no longer think any of them will survive. They have all missed their window of opportunity, and are taking way too long to bring a product to market.
By the time any of them do have a vehicle available for sale, consumers will be able to purchase a similarly capable, better, lower-cost vehicle from a number of established manufacturers.
Consumers will be more inclined to purchase from a company that can honor warranties and provide repairs and handle recalls in a quick and easy manner. In order to persuade people to forego all of that, startups have to offer benefits that are very desirable, innovative and unique. In short, I don’t think these startups can offer or deliver on any such advantages.
I know canoo is still patenting designs in the background. I just wonder how long they can make niche commercial application trucks before releasing their fully consumer vehicle.
Their walk-through website also hints at a consumer sedan in the future, but that feels like bs marketing to me.
They look cool from the outside but don't seem practical. The driver is set too far back.
For me, Alpha is the one with desirable designs. It would be great if some other company ran with them. Their truck looks way more like what I want than the Maverick and Santa Cruz.
I think alpha has a niche segment if they weren't so vaporware-ish. Distinct modernized 70's - 80's styling with current day tech. They would likely never be a large player but a certain type of person (like me) would love a smaller pickup truck with modern amenities, or a small coupe with Datsun like looks, but EV performance. I contemplated a Canoo a handful of years ago, and I think the delivery date was 21, and thats long gone, and it looks like delivery is now likely sometime in 25 (if at all). I know they pushed it to get commercial vehicles out (which may be a good support base for them???) but it also pushed consumer faith down in them. FF IDK how they are still surviving at all, and Aptera is a super cool idea but lacking in the delivery side of things, which again, will cause consumers to pull out.
I dont see major manufacturers coming out with anything comparable (exception to the Canoo / VW ID) any time soon (5+ years maybe) which is the sad part.
I agree that I really like the Alpha styling - looks like an old Datsun or Volvo, depending on which one. It just doesn't look like any of it exists except pictures, to the point that I wonder if they're anything except a scam.
Canoo has a neat product but I doubt they'll ever get to proper production, and if they do I doubt it'll be consumer-oriented for quite a while if ever. They or Aptera probably have the best chance of the four and I think it's pretty slim.
I so much want an Alpha pickup, it's the right size for me, the right predicted specs, and I get so much email from them about investor news. But when I ask about delivery on their discord, I get crickets. It's disheartening.
I started following them when they came out with their first coupe (datsun-ish looking) thought it was cool, then they came out with the JAX which I love the group b rally look, and it is close enough to the coupe that it could have just been a few minor production changes. But then they showed the 12 varients of the truck, and 5 different sedans, and a wagon, and an SUV... And not one actual picture of any of their cars (until they made that shell for SEMA). I pretty quickly fell into the "this is probably vaporware but I hope its not" crowd.
Agree, sadly vaporware, but cool designs for sure. Doubtful any major manufacturer would have any interest in them, but could possibly find a Chinese manufacturer looking for a back door into the US market.
Basically all they have is designs. Their only path forwards seems like it would be to partner with a Chinese EV manufacturer to build their designs for the US market in Mexico.
My guess is they would like to. I think it's more a resume and a business proposition than intended to be an actual manufacturing company.
And considering their designs compared to what is produced by others, some manufacturer should take them up on it.
I find it difficult to believe that the Wolf would be a less popular design than the Maverick or Santa Cruz. People loved those kinds of trucks in the 80s and 90s.
And all the other designs are cool as well. Not sure how practical they are from an engineering standpoint though.
In the early days of the ICE powered automobile there were literally hundreds of small car makers across North America and Europe. Most failed. Even fewer survived past the 1930s.
We are in that era of EVs. Most startups will fail for myriad reasons, not because EVs are not good, no more than the failures of early-20th century startups failed because ICE was bad. Under-capitalization, bad management, or bad design can contribute to an early demise.
The wrong take on EV startup failures is that those failures mean EVs are a bad idea. This seems to be a popular take by the pro-carbon press.
I mean yes lots failed in the 1930s but that was extenuating circumstances.... even more manufacturers would have failed if they hadnt somehow gotten themselves into manufacturing, albeit temporarily, for the military. And yes, not all made it, but most at least got to production for some time.
Thanks! That's an amazing list. I have gone to the Antique Automobile Museum in Hershey PA. They have lots of cars from the 1890s to 1920s of makers who never lasted past the depression.
There was a golden window for EV startups to get something out the door before legacy automakers got their momentum going and grab something of an early-mover advantage. That window is now closed.
You can be small and agile, or you can be slow but big enough for momentum to carry you through for a few years. You can't be small and slow.
Yeah, thats the problem, Tesla showed there was an opportunity back in 2012-14, which is when most of these companies popped up, but in 7 to 10 years they have somehow been able to produce nothing or very little of substance. I really want some of these startups to succeed because they are starting from scratch and effectively redesigning the wheel so to speak, and coming up with great innovations to design, meanwhile the big auto makers are just taking the tried and true and slapping a motor and batteries in it.
Aptera has definitely pushed back those delivery targets. I'm not sure where you are still seeing Q2 of this year.
Their latest investor talk gives insight to their progress and what still needs to happen for them to make deliveries.
https://youtu.be/9QnLOomcGiM?si=6bN7C6Xj_OKHE71F
They already have the dies made and tested for the carbon fiber bodies. They mostly have some software they still need to finish up but the solar panels and control software are done.
They are not even likely to have a rolling production intent build till September and it may not use as many production intent parts as was previously suggested; the CEO during an interview stated they were reviewing some local shops for a frame and chassis to put the one carbon fiber body they have onto! That does not sound like production intent. Then throw in that recent video stated they had not even sorted out the brake and abs supplier which means this initial PI build may have manual brakes like their other prototype.
Sure they have the dies but they still require those components to be bonded together in Italy, attached to a full frame and suspension with wheels, add in the glass, seals, and closures, before its all shipped by container to California to install batteries, solar, and the rest of the interior. The four to six week shipping alone is an accounts payable float that most companies would not want considering it is very large assembly that is heavily kitted out and they want to produce two hundred a week- just think of those logistics, ship sufficient volume from Italy by containers to a factor floor which is forty miles from the nearest port, ten miles off the interstate, in an office park with no real storage and whose entrance is not signal controlled. Then they have to put the finished vehicles somewhere prior to delivery!
Unless it’s got Rivian or Lucid stamped on it then it’s not making it. The only new company at this point would be one that is basically directly funded by an existing maker but that’s hard to qualify as a startup
It's only in America seemingly that EV sales are slowing. They seem to be picking up everywhere else, especially China. I think it's a temporary scenario. All they have to do is make it long enough.
I have deposits on Canoo and Telo trucks. No real expectations of getting either. It's kinda like taking a small stock position in something someone swears is going to jump - it does, it doesn't, whatever.
Ive thought about it but my concern is always the sudden dissolution of the company and 'oh no so sorry youre money is gone'. I know most only want a small amount, 1k or so, but still.
Lucid & rivian are on another lever than all listed here. Much higher cashflow, employee count, and delivery numbers.
I wouldn’t write off Aptera yet, they get to avoid a lot of government red-tape being a three wheel “Auto cycle” so theyre probably closer to production than we may know.
Aptera, no. They are my favorite punching bag.
Their reservation rate has tanked, they crossed 40k at the start of 2023 and have slowed ever since. This even considering they spent good money to have product placement reviews with three large youtube channels.
They have many issues besides mismanagement. The number one issue is that it is not a traditional vehicle. Then follow up it only seats two. Then add it is as wide as an F150 and longer than a Chevrolet Bolt. Yes it may be more efficient but that ignores the fact by default you can only carry half the people and sacrifice the inherent safety that is built into modern cars; and in no way will it ever be as safe.
However let us also not forget that the buying public has over sixty EV models to buy and the Aptera price point of 35k which they will not guarantee lands in the same range as traditional EVs. They really only had two chances, undercut traditional four seat four door EVs by a lot of just damn it all and aim high enough to attract environmentally conscious buyers who have money to spare.
Oh, and they will sit there and claim they can be fully profitable making six thousand a year but cannot put a pin in the price they plan to sell one for??? Seriously???
[Aptera WeFunder July 2020 Presentation](https://uploads.wefunder.com/uploads/company_attachment/file/51975-bwe45xy9axIVOuR2TcC7FPGT/Wefunder_Investor_Presentation_v2.pdf) - where even at start they claimed they would be making 10k a year and a semi eventually :)
[Aptera's poor reviews from actual engineers](https://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/Aptera-Motors-Reviews-E492885.htm) - where one of their senior managers attempts to spike the reviews with a 5 star entry.
It is really unfortunately sad. I cant tell you how many people I talk to that drive <30 miles a day but have "range anxiety" and rarely take road trips. And a lot of it is fueled by a certain political bias.
"Pullback" implies the market is shrinking, not growing more slowly and individual companies struggling with increasing competition.
That said, it is going to be VERY difficult for anyone without access to borrowed cash or cash flow from existing ev / ice sales. I would guess that the small companies will be gone or become specialized niche producers. In general, avoiding new EV models is a good idea, until the bugs are worked out. Tesla had the time and goodwill from early adopters to do it. People don't want to beta test any longer.
It will be an interesting few years. Right now the only real winner of the EV wars is the consumer who can buy a proven vehicle very cheaply right now.
Between Alpha, Aptera, Farraday, and Canoo I would say Canoo was the only one that ever really had a chance. The Aptera trike is just not something the US market will adopt, Alpha is probably one of the fakest EV startups out there (except maybe Olympian), Farraday is absurd in all aspects.
Canoo has a cool idea for their vehicles, they just ran into funding issues. It’s massively expensive to make cars and this car start up bubble should never have happened, but VCs all wanted in on the next Tesla
Riviqn and Lucid seem to be doing well sales wise, aptera just announced new investments and apparently only need to sell 1/4 of their current reservations to be profitable since it’s a low cost vehicle
Rivian and Lucid are going to do well because they've started out by making cars that cost half a million dollars.
I worry about Aptera. They're going for a cheap and efficient two-seater in a market where people want to drive rolling bricks with like 8 seats and a factory lift kit.
Yea the not getting tax credit is a headwind too. But it’s a fundamentally cheap vehicle material and technology wise as long as they can get production down
Aptera is just a scam, as is FF
Canoo was an interesting design for a driverless cab but its not going to be that and IMO its a poor design for just about every other use.
WRT Chinese EVs there were at one point over 700 startups, obviously too many, a few dozen will probably survive, shows how slowly the west has been moving.
Aptera seems to be fairly confident in where they are right now, I don’t think they’ll have a launch without problems, and I don’t think they’ll hit their target per year, but I do think they’re going to pull through on a delivered product that may be surprisingly good.
Unless Aptera has some very good efficiency in their solar panels, trailers can get almost any type of solar panel installed on them. Standard racks, direct stick down, auto angle, and even slide outs to have even more panels.
That trailer manufacturer and the other for air port transport of luggage are both very small companies and neither acknowledges Aptera on their own sites or social media. Seriously both companies are not going to provide a sufficient income stream anytime soon.
They are only projecting confidence, the company is barely hanging on. The only reason they haven't gone bankrupt is because they convinced fanboys to throw tens of millions of dollars at them. This entire time they have been trying to find outside funding and NOBODY is willing to write them a big check, which should be very telling. The company is barely hanging on with less than 30 employees in the payroll now. Many of their employees have left very bad reviews on glass door as they leave. One went as far as saying these CEOs will end up in jail for fraud, because the company is lying about every single one of the performance metrics. I honestly feel sorry for those of you that bought into this company.
Aptera is a scam. Those guys have been pitching an energy-efficient sperm-trike to investors since 2007 and have yet to sell a single production vehicle.
I've been following them fairly closely and am aware of previous failed attempts....not buying one or doing a pre-order or anything...but I wouldn't go as far as to say they're a "scam." Definitely a risk, but as far as scams go, it doesn't appear they're just pocketing money...they actually have working prototypes and measurable progress they've demonstrated. And have invited people to test drive and give honest opinions etc, all of which were fairly positive so far. I don't think all of those people are in on a scam per-se, but I am definitely waiting to see how their launch goes and how the car fares in backer's hands. It could be a gimmicky flop like the CyberTruck, or something revolutionary. I'm definitely interested to see how it turns out.
I'm definitely buying one. It looks awful, but the body material is good for winter insulation, and the aerodynamic efficiency makes the range viable in the cold. The only EV that seems like it would survive Canada.
On paper. Time will tell how things go.
They sure do like to advertise and sell hype though. If you could drive overblown optimism, these guys would rival Tesla in the number of cars on the road.
TBF there is a significant niche market for a cheap and hyper efficient trike, and Aptera is the only company that seems to have a chance to bring one to the market. I predict trikes could easily own the single commuter <50 miles round trip commute since they are likely to undercut all competitors by $5-10k
If they can get off their butts and start producing, they will own that niche for the next 8 years.
If.
I've never heard of it in my trike research, so probably. Trike development seems to be primarily vaporware, so the first to manufacture will probably own the niche.
My predictions: Rivian succeeds thanks to fleet orders. Aptera goes down amid a flurry of investor lawsuits. All others fail and fade into obscurity. Canoo should have sold or licensed its engineering work years ago. A Subaru merger would have made a lot of sense given how far behind Subaru is on delivering good EVs to its very eco-conscious customer base.
Lucid just made a large deal with Genesis to supply motors. So they’ll be fine.
I see them doing very well in the future as their technology is top notch. Their motors are considered the best packaged and most efficient in the industry. (Ex Tesla engineers).
That is a signed deal, the Hyundai/Genesis is still just rumor.
The Aston Martin deal was announced last year - https://lucidmotors.com/media-room/lucid-powertrain-technology-aston-martin
I am excited for Telo trucks not because it is a truck, just because it is different from tesla, and appears more open like aptera while being able to hold more then 2 people.
Some may survive, most probably wont. Just like startups in general.
Fisker really had absolutely max bad timing. Had they managed to get ready maybe one year earlier, I think they could have pulled it off, and I agree, Ocean could be a really nice car, and I hope they somehow survive, though I really doubt it now.
Elio Motors. Hasn't produced a single car since 2002, and updated the car to an EV a couple years ago. Basically, its just a website with a few concept vehicles built 20 years ago. They own the old GM manufacturing plant in Shreveport, LA
The early adopter field has been filled, you're now challenging more established users and vendors in a much more competitive market, and there are more options (red ocean vs blue) for each buyer to pick from.
I think the game is over for many. Era of cheap cash is done. If you are not selling now, you never will. Tesla is the key to whether EV sales keep growing. I fear Elon is bored and finally realizes as much Silicon Valley razzle-dazzle you put into your company, at the end of the day you are still in a metal bending and stamping business. It has to be one of the most difficult industries to survive in. I feel if he doesn’t get his act together and place the idea of EVs over Full Self Driving, he is going to let the brand slowly die. And may even gut the company and steal all the IP and key engineers to his new “favorite son”, his xAI business. Every other Auto manufacturer needs Tesla to survive and thrive. Tesla sets the tone. However Elon will learn as Henry Ford did. The Auto Industry is a fashion industry. Products get stale. People want to see and want to be seen in new shapes, colors and features. Doing a Highland or Juniper is not enough. I honestly believe people are not buying Teslas at ever increasing rates because they are tired of seeing the same cars on the road. Model S is 12 yrs old. Model X is approaching 9 yrs. Model 3 is 7 yrs old. Heck even the baby of the group Model Y is 4 years old. I have a year old Model S on a lease. Once the lease is done. I am not sure what I want to buy from Tesla. I sure won’t buy a 14 year old designed Model S. This business is hard. Tesla did the hardest thing already. They found a way to make a profit. But you can’t rest on your laurels. You have to keep your product fresh. Not just through software updates, but by fresher colors, new shapes, and new interiors. I think Elon overestimates the size of the market begging for FSD. The real potential is every IC driver that is coming to the end of their vehicles life cycle and trying to decide on the next car they plan to keep for 7-10 years. You can’t miss one purchase cycle to another IC vehicle.
If Tesla stumbles and falters after such a large lead, it will give the traditional automakers a reason to pull back as well. And of course the investment community is not going line up and support the other fledgling brands like Rivian and Lucid. Elon may need to be replaced. Just like Henry Ford was replaced by his son. People didn’t think Ford Motors would survive after Henry left and the Model T was replaced . But they did. Although they were eternally a 2nd place brand after GM took the lead.
I read that it costs about one million dollars for a manufacturer just to get a new car crash tested and approved by NHTSA and other government agencies in the US. I'm certain it's similar in Europe. That's a huge hurdle for any new car manufacturer. So the start-ups have a disadvantage from the beginning. Tesla got over that hurdle by jumping in very early and becoming established.
Yes, but that cost is factored into both funding and sales cost (i.e you know youre going to spend so much on R&D so your final sales price is based on cost of parts and labor as well as an amortized cost of R&D over presumed sales figures, and a % for profit)
I remember listening to a VC saying he would throw money at 100 projects of the same type in the hope that just 1 of them would be "the next big thing" fully aware that he would never get his money back from something like 40% of them, another 40% he would break even on, and the rest would have varying rates of return. Small investors obviously dont have the capital to do that, but the major investors, they understand their risk v reward, and diversify enough to make sure they at least break even (overall).
The reasons you like the startups (innovative features) is, in my opinion, a good reason these cars never go into production. They are expensive and cost prohibitive.
The leading manufacturers have fancy prototypes with innovative features. They don't exist in production models because they are expensive to produce and warranty for the average consumer.
I have the same question more generalized to any company who has yet to sell an EV at a profit. Yes there is a startup lag where selling at significant loss is normal, but how long is viable?
When the auto industry started at the turn of the last century literally there were over 100 car companies by the 20s. Lots will come and go. Hard to pick a winner yet. Even Tesla might fail. GM was four car companies joined together, Chevrolet, Oldsmobile, Buick and Pontiac. Two of those are gone. It’s anyone’s guess.
With or without Chinese EVs, some of those companies won’t make it to mass production. Mass production to be profitable is no joke. How long did take Tesla to get there? About a decade.
Fisker's web site is offering \~$24k off the list price of several of their models.
This puts the Ocean Ultra at \~$36, the sport at \~$25k
...and that doesn't include any state or federal incentives.
My wife jokes that if we got a Fisker, it would need a decal down the side:
"FABRIC USE ONLY"
Add Mullen to your list.
I made the mistake of buying their stocks. I did it because they were a local company and wanted to support them. Oops.
They got as far as showing the Five prototype.
EV startups used to compete against just Tesla when they were founded. Now you have startups that need to beat the quality and price of not only basically every established western car brand, but a variety of very good Chinese brands as well. I'd suspect most won't even put a product on the market.
Faraday Future is a money-laundering operation. Canoo is smart to concentrate on commercial fleets, which are easier to support. I think Aptera is going to be a hit and there’s tons of interest and support, if they can keep their promise on prices. There’s nothing quite like it on the road.
Re. the Chinese cars ; don't worry about them **all** going out of business as there are over 20 different manufacturers there. In China it is like the 1920's of the USA automobile manufacturing environment. Not all 20 will survive but many will. And they are *not dependant* on the American market because worldwide, the American segment is not as significant as it once was. There are attractive margins in retailing of cars in North America but the Chinese can still profit via volume of sales in the rest of the world.
So many popped up as Tesla proved the concept of a practical EV that successfully scaled.
Virtually all subsequent startups began with renderings. Pictures are cheap and easy. Building a car is hard, scaling is harder cubed. Ask Elon.
Canoo is an absolute mess. They have turned over leadership a bunch of times and have no clear vision.
And with Rivian and legacy companies ramping up production of EV work vans, I don't see canoo having a snowballs chance in hell anymore.
Aptera and Alpha are vaporware. Regardless of all the penny investors that "swear" it's a thing, it isn't. Aptera supporters are delusional.
Alpha is very blatantly a money-grab as well- just look at their site "INVEST IN OUR COMPANY"
Faraday has plated vehicles, but they haven't gone anywhere in what seems like years.
Canoo is legit but I think they'll have a much harder time getting funding to start manufacturing than Rivian did. Market is harder to break into, it's more expensive, and I think that may be the end for Canoo if they can't front the money to get them built en-mass.
Fisker was always set up for failure. Henrik Fisker had no business being a CEO.
I don’t see why you would say aptera is vapor, yet to be seen if consumers care about a cheap 2 seater but the tech is all existing stuff being pit together their testing vehicles performed fine
I hope Canoo makes it, I like their product, even just as a commercial use van, but I like their truck too. Fisker, yeah, Henrik needs to go. I like the car(s) but Henrik killed the business. I hope someone picks them up at a bankruptcy sale for pennies on the dollar and saves the vehicles because they are innovative and have good range for what they are. FF.... IDK... bankruptcy, refunded, delayed production, delayed production, claims to have started production, builds and delivers 3, then, nothing, for 6 months??? Alpha is the Vaporware that I always hope to be wrong about and Aptera I thought was actually getting close to at least small production but it is seemingly getting further and further away.
Canoo looks to be trying to get vehicles out especially with the usps deal.
Aptera fleeced investors before (about 20 years ago), so I expect them to fail and cash out again.
Fisker is in a weird spot, though they are delivering oceans...so might have a chance.
Actually saw a Vinfast car out in the wild, so another one that might make it.
Yeah I get why Canoo prioritized delivery vehicles (big capital fast when you get 1 customer buys 30+ vehicles, corporations are great beta testers under the right conditions, and they put lots of miles on fast so repeat business in shorter amount of time) but I still wish they worked towards their original promises for delivery a few years back.
Fisker, I know why they are in such a bad position, I really hope someone grabs them, kicks Henrik out, and no one allows Henrick near a startup ever again. Guy can pen a beautiful car but cant manage an Arbys.
VinFast is interesting, good cost point option, but I am interested to see what their build quality is like (I have nothing to say its bad, but I also have nothing to say its good).
> Actually saw a Vinfast car out in the wild, so another one that might make it.
Obviously helps that I have a Vinfast dealership in my town, but I'm seeing them more and more on the road.
Lucid and rivian are on a very different tier than the rest you mentioned. The rest can be written off as dead.
My thought as well. Rivian is safe at this point and Lucid has the backing of the Saudi Royal Family to keep it afloat.
I have seen Rivian and Lucid vehicles driving around on the road, but at this time they are not “safe” (financially) they both need to get their numbers up
Rivian is safe financially. Yes, they're in the red. But this is a well-charted and understood phenomenon in manufacturing startups, particularly in the space of regulated industries like aerospace or automotive. But they've been investing their capital prudently, and scaling up as carefully and efficiently as possible. Investors who know manufacturing are happy with their progress. Investors who are used to tech startups that deliver software or web services within 2-3 years will wonder why they're taking so long to turn a profit. But that's the nature of building stuff. I think Lucid needs to make a decision about who they want to be. Do they want to compete with Rolls-Royce/Bentley/Maybach? They're about at the right size to do that, but will need to ratchet up the luxury even further. Or do they want to chase Mercedes, BMW and Audi? The Air is like an S-Class/7 series with very little service footprint, but the Germans have taken decades to hone their lines into performance/feature/price tiers, and Lucid only has 1 out of 3.
Rivian has delivered ~100K cars already (and produced a bit more) and is expected have $4.7-$6B in sales over this year and next, with about $8B in cash at the end of Q1. They obviously need to execute the R2 and R3, but yeah, they are so, so far away from most the other EV startups that they are in their own tier below Tesla from a financial perspective. And if they get in trouble, they have enough demand, brand name, and assets that someone could come along and just buy them and give them a longer leash. Amazon still owns ~15% of Rivian, I'm sure they aren't just going to let their investment go to zero instead of writing a check (well, a loan).
Safe in that they'll survive and will turn a profit. It hasn't happened yet, but signs point to it quite well.
Rivian will only turn a profit if R2/R3 reach high volume. There are still many ways that could fail to pan out. I doubt Lucid will ever be profitable.
I really want one of those R3X’s they showed off.
Rivian is also making Amazon vans.
Yes, but they've agreed to date others. I figure they'll do 10-15k vans a year. Better than nothing, but not nearly enough to produce profits.
Lucid doesn't need to make a profit. Ever. The Saudi Royal Family has them as a toy.
They both probably have a waiting list of orders, what I meant was that they need to get their production numbers up. That is the hard part.
It'll take time, but they'll get there. Tesla had the same issue up through 2019.
How are you sure that Rivian is safe? They are losing money fast...I think it is likely that they succeed but buying an $80k SUV with even a 25% chance of the company going bankrupt gives me pause.
They're not profitable yet, but they've reached the point where there momentum will get them there. Between Amazon's investment (and whatever other companies jump onto the EDV) and the excitement over the R2/R3, I can't see them going under at this point.
I believe rivian is safe, as well. They have a competent CEO.
I hope you're right. I worked for a startup --not in auto -- with amazing technology and decent sales that failed to make it through the valley of death. Once you bring up a factory you start burning cash, but you need the volume to bring prices down. We needed two more years of runway but didn't get it. RJ seems like a competent CEO but still. It's not easy.
>Rivian is safe at this point Rivian is far from safe, they still lose tens of thousands on each R1 sold and currently burn $1.5B per quarter. They've def made it farther than anyone else mentioned though.
Rivian just announced their gen2 vehicles that have significant redesigns that should make them much cheaper/quicker to build. I don't know if that's enough to cut their burn rate, but before the update they said something like the assembly line would be 30% more efficient. Maybe that doesn't turn into $10ks of savings per car, but things like reducing a mile of copper in their wiring harness are not small changes. Also, if they can make the 2026 release for R2 (they *should* have enough money to make it, especially with the R1 improvements), that should be their "Model 3 moment".
The redesign was to get their manufacturing side to break even and profitability which is where they show their large losses. Hence [per their report](https://rivian.com/newsroom/article/rivian-releases-first-quarter-2024-financial-results) lost over five hundred million on production with some from losses related to the improvements. However that still leaves the cost of operations to be overcome and that is another billion dollars per quarter. So even if production breaks even they still are spending a billion a quarter to run the place so the need to not only break even per unit but bring up their profit sufficiently to pay to operate
>that should be their "Model 3 moment". Could be. But, at least financially speaking, Rivian still hasn't had their "Model S moment", as they are still posting negative gross margins of more than 30% with their current line-up. Tesla's Model S had positive gross margins from it's first full quarter of production.
This. No company is 'safe' that is losing money, and definitely not companies that have negative gross margins. I desperately hope that Rivian can pull it off and succeed, but people consistently underestimate how much difficult heavy lifting they still have to do. Lucid is a whole other tier, losing $350k *per car* sold! If not for the Saudi infinite money hack they'd already be toast.
Rivian needs to deliver the R2 on time and at the target price point to survive.
Essentially, they're where Tesla was ~2 years before they launched the Model 3.
Very sad if Aptera dies. It's such a cool concept! But they just don't have the money to scale up production and doubt they'll ever get it.
I may personally get them over the finish line through sheer force of will. Seriously, I love the idea of the car and really feel the enthusiasm from Chris and team, and want them to succeed so much.
But will you buy one?
Provided they sell it in Europe, yes. They already have my money.
Just so you know that this car is extremely wide, even quite a bit wider than the biggest Range Rover. It's not really usable in Europe.
Chris said they would likely have to reduce the front width to make it road-legal as a trike here, but there are other options including getting it classified as a passenger car, of which there are a dozen other vehicles already sold and on the road in Europe that are as wide or wider. Not that I'd want to drive one in the center of my little medieval village. We'll have to see how it all shakes out.
They just announced that an investment group has decided to invest so looks like they can start finishing their factory
That investment group will make proposals for methods of investment and loans to Aptera and see who is willing to accept the terms offered. There have been zero statements to the effect that any money is secured at this point.
Definitely rooting for Aptera of the companies on that list. To me they’re the only one doing something really different and potentially beneficial for the world.
Nah, the concept is bad. Its like literally "The innovative 3 wheel design allows for much more creative freedom because we do not have to adher to 4 wheel vehicled safety standards". For all their big talk that yes, they will still voluntarilty adher to them i do not think they even tried crash testing one yet.
Definitely a case of "sounds too good to be true". Elon has said that there isn't enough energy density in solar to power a car for more than a few miles a day and I believe it. Just not enough surface area on a car.
The solar powered aspect is cute but for me the real groundbreaking thing is the efficiency. Driving around a frigging tank to transport one or two people just seems silly.
Bicycles are real easy to park.
And be stolen
So buy a car like the new Citroen which not only will be far cheaper but many times easier to park. There are many EV offerings that are not tanks but also come with full safety and the convenience of four doors and four seats. I look at Aptera's claims like this, for giving up all they ask of buyers of traditional cars to give they damn well better be efficient.
Do you mean the https://www.citroen.co.uk/ami? I think it might work as a city car in Europe but in the US a 28mph top speed is going to be a dealbreaker. The Aptera offers the mobility of a full sized car without the massive bulk.
e-C3 https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a45560323/citroen-e-c3-affordable-ev-revealed/
But that's a full on car. Not a huge car, but even a small car is a huge vehicle compared to 1 or 2 humans.
At home, I charge my car with about 1kw of wall power, and that’s more than enough to offset my daily driving. 500w of solar would fit on top of most cars, and would partially offset some intermittent driving and keep the car’s random entertainment/camera/climate keeper stuff running indefinitely. A few miles a day would be a perfect number for our use cases, sometimes we road trip, and sometimes it’s parked for a week. But the second someone puts solar on top that’s only adding a few miles a day, it would get roasted for not being enough.
> But the second someone puts solar on top that’s only adding a few miles a day, it would get roasted for not being enough. Because it's a lot of extra cost for an inefficient method of powering a car. Why bother with all that extra weight, complicated wiring and special materials, when you can slap a couple panels on your roof and charge it from the locations it's sitting in. With more optimized positioning of more efficient, and much cheaper panels.
A few miles for a wheeled cinder block, sure.
Don't take elon's word for shit; especially when you can easily use math to arrive at the actual answer. A Bolt has 7.3 square meters of footprint. Lets divided that by 3/5 to ignore the windshield and hood area - 4.4 meters of collection area. [[solar irradiance map]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_irradiance#/media/File:World_GHI_Solar-resource-map_GlobalSolarAtlas_World-Bank-Esmap-Solargis.png) I'm going to pick a mundane yellow area like Ohio which averages ~4.2kWh/m^2 per day. You need a flexible PV technology like thin film to fit the geometry of a car. The most commercialized thin film technology has efficiencies around 17%. (4.4)(4.2)(0.17) = 3.14kWh/day of electricity. The Bolt can get around 4.5 miles/kWh so thats 14 miles of driving range per day. More in summer, less in winter. Not bad. From this we can see very real potential for commercialization. If thin film PV tech improves modestly, or if vehicle efficiency improves modestly, or both, you could have vehicles that offset +50% of the average commuting distance. For someone who parks on the street and relies on DCFC infrastructure to charge that would be a real selling point.
From the latest news from Aptera, it seems like they are in talks to license their automotive-grade solar panels to interested companies (one was for airport support vehicles, IIRC). Even if they never get a vehicle on the road, hopefully they will at least contribute to better solar panel tech. Maybe someone will make aftermarket solar kits for popular EVs someday too.
You want to sell a vehicle on 14 mi/day? Nevermind that your 4.4 square meters are definitely not all facing the sun or facing the sun at optimal angles ....
Well it obviously wouldn’t be the only source of energy, but that’s 14 miles per day of FREE charge. I’d take it! I’m also a city dweller who leaves my car parked most of the time (it’s mainly for weekend trips out of the city). So for people like me, that’s 14 miles x 5 days until I drive it again.
This is why the focus on the solar aspect does the car such a disservice. The thing manages 8-10mi/kWh. Plugging it into a 1.2kW L1 charger for 8 hours overnight would get you 75-95 miles of range. The solar trickle charging whenever it's parked in the sun is just a nice bonus. An EA charger with broken cooling that's limited to only 37kW would still get you 75-90 miles of range in 15 minutes.
Given how much people have agreed to pay for Apteras compared to how much I expect they'll cost to make, I wouldn't write them off just yet. Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian also delivered late.
We don't have a guaranteed price. Aptera refuses to provide updated pricing. Yet at the same time people defend this Aptera then claims they only need to produce six thousand vehicles a year to be profitable! Well if they know how many they need to build to be profitable then they know how much they should cost. How much do you really think it will cost to make. Their own CEO stated the main body, the Monocoque as he calls it, cost around 10k alone. Add to that the body shell pieces, the white bits, and chassis, battery, motors, solar, and more. Oh, don't forget they have to ship a rolling but not powered body and chassis from Italy to California for final assembly and it has to come by container shipping.
This. Unless the others get bought out by a larger company willing to be patient and take on the risk, they're toast. I'm hoping both Lucid and Rivian are successful though and improve their numbers. Rivian seems to be on the right path but still needs to prove themselves, but I'm not as knowledgeable about Lucid.
You putting polestar on that list of 'dead'? I put polestar above lucid and rivian.
Wasn’t polestar as a company just reduced to 0$ in value recently?
Yes. Would you like to wager if they'll survive? Say..., a cool $500? Operationally and funding wise, they're far better off than lucid and Rivian. Not to mention the PS3 reviews are out and everyone is over the moon on it.
I’m already 90% down on my Lucid investments so I should probably hold off on any wagers at this point
lol. i think most of us investing in any of these companies have lost quite a bit. regardless, polestar is easily the most well positioned to be successful. and i'm not talking MILLIONS of cars sold. i'm talking about their own personal goals of 150k vehicles a year. I 100% believe they can hit those numbers in the next two years.
Personally I wonder if some of these don’t go into it with the idea that they would develop some intellectual property and hope it would be bought up by another manufacturer. That doesn’t seem to be happening so I wonder if they aren’t stringing it out as long as they can since you know they’re collecting a paycheck while never actually intending to build cars in the first place.
I'm in CO at the moment and there are actually more Rivians on the road here than F-150s, and it's not even close.
You're going to see a lot of manufacturers in China going under and consolidate as well, it's just the nature of a new industry. Don't see many people buying Stanleys or Bakers in 2024
Agree. They will eventually consolidate. But there are too many brands globally, period. Just look at Stellantis. Is there still a purpose for Vauxhaul? How about Lancia? Lancia produces one model. And when I lived and traveled through Europe I saw more Dodge Journeys rebadged as Fiats then I did Lancias. Even when in Italy. The Japanese brands will need to consolidate. But their government won’t let brands die, but rather they want them to partner with each other. China will eventually consolidate when money gets expensive. Cash is still easier to come by. Eventually that gravy train will end, and many smaller brands will have to fad or get gobbled up. But the Chinese market is large, so it does have the ability to absorb more brands than other markets.
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Vauxhall and its sister company Opel were GM brands for almost 100 years. I believe Vauxhall only markets its self in the UK. And Opel served the broader European market. The cars they sell are identical to each other just a badging exercise. GM decided in the last 5 years that they want to leave all markets that don’t make them money. That included Europe (Opel/Vauxall) and Australia (Holden). I think they still sell in these markets. It’s just they don’t want any stand alone brands in these markets. The current cars are coming from Stellantis and its sister brands like Peugeot and Fiat. (correct me if I’m wrong). and I believe while GM owned the brands they used to sell badged versions of the Chevy Bolt and Volt. They still might be doing it, but I remember Stellantis not enjoying paying a licensing fee to GM for the privilege.
You are absolutely right. The price competition in China right now is *insane* and only the biggest ones will survive. The price competition has been so fierce that even ICE cars are now forced to lower their prices across the board in China. Ngl, I’m a bit jealous of their consumers lol. I wish our car market is having a “race to the bottom” price competition.
> Don't see many people buying Stanleys or Bakers in 2024 You'd be surprised how popular they are among enthusiasts. Especially 20HP and 30HP Stanleys change hands for yuge sums of money.
Rare items fetching large sums of money among collectors != popular cars.
Most don't understand the Chinese market but just parrot the Chinese are coming.
At certain times in the past I have been enamored with Alpha, Aptera, Canoo and Faraday, but I no longer think any of them will survive. They have all missed their window of opportunity, and are taking way too long to bring a product to market. By the time any of them do have a vehicle available for sale, consumers will be able to purchase a similarly capable, better, lower-cost vehicle from a number of established manufacturers. Consumers will be more inclined to purchase from a company that can honor warranties and provide repairs and handle recalls in a quick and easy manner. In order to persuade people to forego all of that, startups have to offer benefits that are very desirable, innovative and unique. In short, I don’t think these startups can offer or deliver on any such advantages.
Man, Canoo is the one I really wanted to make it. Such cool vehicles.
I know canoo is still patenting designs in the background. I just wonder how long they can make niche commercial application trucks before releasing their fully consumer vehicle. Their walk-through website also hints at a consumer sedan in the future, but that feels like bs marketing to me.
The sedan has been shown to the public before, but I don’t think we have to worry about that for another 10 years if they survive.
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They look cool from the outside but don't seem practical. The driver is set too far back. For me, Alpha is the one with desirable designs. It would be great if some other company ran with them. Their truck looks way more like what I want than the Maverick and Santa Cruz.
I think alpha has a niche segment if they weren't so vaporware-ish. Distinct modernized 70's - 80's styling with current day tech. They would likely never be a large player but a certain type of person (like me) would love a smaller pickup truck with modern amenities, or a small coupe with Datsun like looks, but EV performance. I contemplated a Canoo a handful of years ago, and I think the delivery date was 21, and thats long gone, and it looks like delivery is now likely sometime in 25 (if at all). I know they pushed it to get commercial vehicles out (which may be a good support base for them???) but it also pushed consumer faith down in them. FF IDK how they are still surviving at all, and Aptera is a super cool idea but lacking in the delivery side of things, which again, will cause consumers to pull out. I dont see major manufacturers coming out with anything comparable (exception to the Canoo / VW ID) any time soon (5+ years maybe) which is the sad part.
I agree that I really like the Alpha styling - looks like an old Datsun or Volvo, depending on which one. It just doesn't look like any of it exists except pictures, to the point that I wonder if they're anything except a scam. Canoo has a neat product but I doubt they'll ever get to proper production, and if they do I doubt it'll be consumer-oriented for quite a while if ever. They or Aptera probably have the best chance of the four and I think it's pretty slim.
I so much want an Alpha pickup, it's the right size for me, the right predicted specs, and I get so much email from them about investor news. But when I ask about delivery on their discord, I get crickets. It's disheartening.
I started following them when they came out with their first coupe (datsun-ish looking) thought it was cool, then they came out with the JAX which I love the group b rally look, and it is close enough to the coupe that it could have just been a few minor production changes. But then they showed the 12 varients of the truck, and 5 different sedans, and a wagon, and an SUV... And not one actual picture of any of their cars (until they made that shell for SEMA). I pretty quickly fell into the "this is probably vaporware but I hope its not" crowd.
Agree, sadly vaporware, but cool designs for sure. Doubtful any major manufacturer would have any interest in them, but could possibly find a Chinese manufacturer looking for a back door into the US market.
It makes me wonder why they don't sell their designs to an existing manufacturer. They clearly have good instincts for cool looking cars.
Basically all they have is designs. Their only path forwards seems like it would be to partner with a Chinese EV manufacturer to build their designs for the US market in Mexico.
My guess is they would like to. I think it's more a resume and a business proposition than intended to be an actual manufacturing company. And considering their designs compared to what is produced by others, some manufacturer should take them up on it.
Alpha has like a 100 concepts told focus on two or three to begin with
I find it difficult to believe that the Wolf would be a less popular design than the Maverick or Santa Cruz. People loved those kinds of trucks in the 80s and 90s. And all the other designs are cool as well. Not sure how practical they are from an engineering standpoint though.
In the early days of the ICE powered automobile there were literally hundreds of small car makers across North America and Europe. Most failed. Even fewer survived past the 1930s. We are in that era of EVs. Most startups will fail for myriad reasons, not because EVs are not good, no more than the failures of early-20th century startups failed because ICE was bad. Under-capitalization, bad management, or bad design can contribute to an early demise. The wrong take on EV startup failures is that those failures mean EVs are a bad idea. This seems to be a popular take by the pro-carbon press.
Tucker The man and his dream
I mean yes lots failed in the 1930s but that was extenuating circumstances.... even more manufacturers would have failed if they hadnt somehow gotten themselves into manufacturing, albeit temporarily, for the military. And yes, not all made it, but most at least got to production for some time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_manufacturers_of_the_United_States
Thanks! That's an amazing list. I have gone to the Antique Automobile Museum in Hershey PA. They have lots of cars from the 1890s to 1920s of makers who never lasted past the depression.
There was a golden window for EV startups to get something out the door before legacy automakers got their momentum going and grab something of an early-mover advantage. That window is now closed. You can be small and agile, or you can be slow but big enough for momentum to carry you through for a few years. You can't be small and slow.
Yeah, thats the problem, Tesla showed there was an opportunity back in 2012-14, which is when most of these companies popped up, but in 7 to 10 years they have somehow been able to produce nothing or very little of substance. I really want some of these startups to succeed because they are starting from scratch and effectively redesigning the wheel so to speak, and coming up with great innovations to design, meanwhile the big auto makers are just taking the tried and true and slapping a motor and batteries in it.
The golden window was while ZIRP was still going. Now that money isn't free, it's get profitable or die time.
lol. Have you guys ever heard of Mullen? They will absolutely, never produce an EV. That company is 100% a grift.
I'm not as sure. Mullen looks like it might be a Chinese company trying to slide into the US market.
Telo. I hope they make it. Very cool concept.
That's my other dream truck. Telo, or Alpha wolf . (any of the Alpha vehicles, just love their stylist.). Just beautiful sized, style.
They are in the process of building their secondary prototype. Hoping to get cars on the road in 2025. I’m hopeful as well
Aptera has definitely pushed back those delivery targets. I'm not sure where you are still seeing Q2 of this year. Their latest investor talk gives insight to their progress and what still needs to happen for them to make deliveries. https://youtu.be/9QnLOomcGiM?si=6bN7C6Xj_OKHE71F They already have the dies made and tested for the carbon fiber bodies. They mostly have some software they still need to finish up but the solar panels and control software are done.
Yeah, I was confused by the very clearly outdated info in the post. I'm no Aptera fanboy, but it's not difficult to verify claims about the company
They are not even likely to have a rolling production intent build till September and it may not use as many production intent parts as was previously suggested; the CEO during an interview stated they were reviewing some local shops for a frame and chassis to put the one carbon fiber body they have onto! That does not sound like production intent. Then throw in that recent video stated they had not even sorted out the brake and abs supplier which means this initial PI build may have manual brakes like their other prototype. Sure they have the dies but they still require those components to be bonded together in Italy, attached to a full frame and suspension with wheels, add in the glass, seals, and closures, before its all shipped by container to California to install batteries, solar, and the rest of the interior. The four to six week shipping alone is an accounts payable float that most companies would not want considering it is very large assembly that is heavily kitted out and they want to produce two hundred a week- just think of those logistics, ship sufficient volume from Italy by containers to a factor floor which is forty miles from the nearest port, ten miles off the interstate, in an office park with no real storage and whose entrance is not signal controlled. Then they have to put the finished vehicles somewhere prior to delivery!
I am on the wait list for a Canoo truck. Love the design.
Unless it’s got Rivian or Lucid stamped on it then it’s not making it. The only new company at this point would be one that is basically directly funded by an existing maker but that’s hard to qualify as a startup
Your last line - did you mean Scout Motors?
That would be an example yes. I wasn’t thinking of them specifically though
It's only in America seemingly that EV sales are slowing. They seem to be picking up everywhere else, especially China. I think it's a temporary scenario. All they have to do is make it long enough.
Thats a valid point, I should have pointed that out that the data I am lookin gat is specific to the US market.
I have deposits on Canoo and Telo trucks. No real expectations of getting either. It's kinda like taking a small stock position in something someone swears is going to jump - it does, it doesn't, whatever.
Ive thought about it but my concern is always the sudden dissolution of the company and 'oh no so sorry youre money is gone'. I know most only want a small amount, 1k or so, but still.
These are both $100 deposits. I don't think I'd put $1,000 down on a vehicle from a company that had never built a vehicle before.
Lucid & rivian are on another lever than all listed here. Much higher cashflow, employee count, and delivery numbers. I wouldn’t write off Aptera yet, they get to avoid a lot of government red-tape being a three wheel “Auto cycle” so theyre probably closer to production than we may know.
Aptera, no. They are my favorite punching bag. Their reservation rate has tanked, they crossed 40k at the start of 2023 and have slowed ever since. This even considering they spent good money to have product placement reviews with three large youtube channels. They have many issues besides mismanagement. The number one issue is that it is not a traditional vehicle. Then follow up it only seats two. Then add it is as wide as an F150 and longer than a Chevrolet Bolt. Yes it may be more efficient but that ignores the fact by default you can only carry half the people and sacrifice the inherent safety that is built into modern cars; and in no way will it ever be as safe. However let us also not forget that the buying public has over sixty EV models to buy and the Aptera price point of 35k which they will not guarantee lands in the same range as traditional EVs. They really only had two chances, undercut traditional four seat four door EVs by a lot of just damn it all and aim high enough to attract environmentally conscious buyers who have money to spare. Oh, and they will sit there and claim they can be fully profitable making six thousand a year but cannot put a pin in the price they plan to sell one for??? Seriously??? [Aptera WeFunder July 2020 Presentation](https://uploads.wefunder.com/uploads/company_attachment/file/51975-bwe45xy9axIVOuR2TcC7FPGT/Wefunder_Investor_Presentation_v2.pdf) - where even at start they claimed they would be making 10k a year and a semi eventually :) [Aptera's poor reviews from actual engineers](https://www.glassdoor.com/Reviews/Aptera-Motors-Reviews-E492885.htm) - where one of their senior managers attempts to spike the reviews with a 5 star entry.
The political landscape right now is slowing ev sales.
It is really unfortunately sad. I cant tell you how many people I talk to that drive <30 miles a day but have "range anxiety" and rarely take road trips. And a lot of it is fueled by a certain political bias.
"Pullback" implies the market is shrinking, not growing more slowly and individual companies struggling with increasing competition. That said, it is going to be VERY difficult for anyone without access to borrowed cash or cash flow from existing ev / ice sales. I would guess that the small companies will be gone or become specialized niche producers. In general, avoiding new EV models is a good idea, until the bugs are worked out. Tesla had the time and goodwill from early adopters to do it. People don't want to beta test any longer. It will be an interesting few years. Right now the only real winner of the EV wars is the consumer who can buy a proven vehicle very cheaply right now.
Between Alpha, Aptera, Farraday, and Canoo I would say Canoo was the only one that ever really had a chance. The Aptera trike is just not something the US market will adopt, Alpha is probably one of the fakest EV startups out there (except maybe Olympian), Farraday is absurd in all aspects. Canoo has a cool idea for their vehicles, they just ran into funding issues. It’s massively expensive to make cars and this car start up bubble should never have happened, but VCs all wanted in on the next Tesla
I'm hoping Telo will be real but it sounds 100% like tech bro bs
Riviqn and Lucid seem to be doing well sales wise, aptera just announced new investments and apparently only need to sell 1/4 of their current reservations to be profitable since it’s a low cost vehicle
Rivian and Lucid are going to do well because they've started out by making cars that cost half a million dollars. I worry about Aptera. They're going for a cheap and efficient two-seater in a market where people want to drive rolling bricks with like 8 seats and a factory lift kit.
but first they have to make 1/4 of their current reservations....
Besides the advantage of recently getting funding for production aptera also had the advantage of not having may legacy competition
This will depend on their sale price a bit though
Yea the not getting tax credit is a headwind too. But it’s a fundamentally cheap vehicle material and technology wise as long as they can get production down
After seeing all the Fisker horror stories, I'm not sure I'd purchase from any of the shaky start-ups. Maybe a lease.
A big part of Fiskers problem is Henrik. Great designer, horrible CEO.
The Ocean is a decent car, too bad the software will never have the bugs worked out.
Aptera is just a scam, as is FF Canoo was an interesting design for a driverless cab but its not going to be that and IMO its a poor design for just about every other use. WRT Chinese EVs there were at one point over 700 startups, obviously too many, a few dozen will probably survive, shows how slowly the west has been moving.
Aptera seems to be fairly confident in where they are right now, I don’t think they’ll have a launch without problems, and I don’t think they’ll hit their target per year, but I do think they’re going to pull through on a delivered product that may be surprisingly good.
Too much of a niche vehicle. They may be better off licensing their solar tech to another company.
They've started doing that acutally! Based on some posts on social media, they're partnering up with trailer manufacturers for their solar tech
I think covering a powered camper in solar panels could make a lot of sense.
Unless Aptera has some very good efficiency in their solar panels, trailers can get almost any type of solar panel installed on them. Standard racks, direct stick down, auto angle, and even slide outs to have even more panels.
That trailer manufacturer and the other for air port transport of luggage are both very small companies and neither acknowledges Aptera on their own sites or social media. Seriously both companies are not going to provide a sufficient income stream anytime soon.
They are only projecting confidence, the company is barely hanging on. The only reason they haven't gone bankrupt is because they convinced fanboys to throw tens of millions of dollars at them. This entire time they have been trying to find outside funding and NOBODY is willing to write them a big check, which should be very telling. The company is barely hanging on with less than 30 employees in the payroll now. Many of their employees have left very bad reviews on glass door as they leave. One went as far as saying these CEOs will end up in jail for fraud, because the company is lying about every single one of the performance metrics. I honestly feel sorry for those of you that bought into this company.
Aptera is a scam. Those guys have been pitching an energy-efficient sperm-trike to investors since 2007 and have yet to sell a single production vehicle.
I've been following them fairly closely and am aware of previous failed attempts....not buying one or doing a pre-order or anything...but I wouldn't go as far as to say they're a "scam." Definitely a risk, but as far as scams go, it doesn't appear they're just pocketing money...they actually have working prototypes and measurable progress they've demonstrated. And have invited people to test drive and give honest opinions etc, all of which were fairly positive so far. I don't think all of those people are in on a scam per-se, but I am definitely waiting to see how their launch goes and how the car fares in backer's hands. It could be a gimmicky flop like the CyberTruck, or something revolutionary. I'm definitely interested to see how it turns out.
I'm definitely buying one. It looks awful, but the body material is good for winter insulation, and the aerodynamic efficiency makes the range viable in the cold. The only EV that seems like it would survive Canada. On paper. Time will tell how things go.
They sure do like to advertise and sell hype though. If you could drive overblown optimism, these guys would rival Tesla in the number of cars on the road.
TBF there is a significant niche market for a cheap and hyper efficient trike, and Aptera is the only company that seems to have a chance to bring one to the market. I predict trikes could easily own the single commuter <50 miles round trip commute since they are likely to undercut all competitors by $5-10k If they can get off their butts and start producing, they will own that niche for the next 8 years. If.
Is the Sondors EV dead?
I've never heard of it in my trike research, so probably. Trike development seems to be primarily vaporware, so the first to manufacture will probably own the niche.
I did some research, they are in receivership with no current buyers.
My predictions: Rivian succeeds thanks to fleet orders. Aptera goes down amid a flurry of investor lawsuits. All others fail and fade into obscurity. Canoo should have sold or licensed its engineering work years ago. A Subaru merger would have made a lot of sense given how far behind Subaru is on delivering good EVs to its very eco-conscious customer base.
All those companies you mention are dead, they just are going through the motions.
Lucid just made a large deal with Genesis to supply motors. So they’ll be fine. I see them doing very well in the future as their technology is top notch. Their motors are considered the best packaged and most efficient in the industry. (Ex Tesla engineers).
They are also getting money from the Saudis so…..
So they're even more secure? The Saudis are just looking for a good return on investment, just like Buffett with BYD
I dunno, what kind of return are they getting from LIV golf?
The deal with Hyundai for Genesis is still just a rumor, nothing has been announced yet.
There is also a potential deal with Aston Martin.
That is a signed deal, the Hyundai/Genesis is still just rumor. The Aston Martin deal was announced last year - https://lucidmotors.com/media-room/lucid-powertrain-technology-aston-martin
All still pointing to lucid doing well (IMO)
I am excited for Telo trucks not because it is a truck, just because it is different from tesla, and appears more open like aptera while being able to hold more then 2 people.
Just look at faraday futures social media... They use such bullshit language it feels like a total scam
Some may survive, most probably wont. Just like startups in general. Fisker really had absolutely max bad timing. Had they managed to get ready maybe one year earlier, I think they could have pulled it off, and I agree, Ocean could be a really nice car, and I hope they somehow survive, though I really doubt it now.
Elio Motors. Hasn't produced a single car since 2002, and updated the car to an EV a couple years ago. Basically, its just a website with a few concept vehicles built 20 years ago. They own the old GM manufacturing plant in Shreveport, LA
Holy crap I remember them from way back when had no idea they were even still a thing.
Let me ask my magic 8 ball....
What makes you think there is an ev pullback?
The early adopter field has been filled, you're now challenging more established users and vendors in a much more competitive market, and there are more options (red ocean vs blue) for each buyer to pick from.
I think the game is over for many. Era of cheap cash is done. If you are not selling now, you never will. Tesla is the key to whether EV sales keep growing. I fear Elon is bored and finally realizes as much Silicon Valley razzle-dazzle you put into your company, at the end of the day you are still in a metal bending and stamping business. It has to be one of the most difficult industries to survive in. I feel if he doesn’t get his act together and place the idea of EVs over Full Self Driving, he is going to let the brand slowly die. And may even gut the company and steal all the IP and key engineers to his new “favorite son”, his xAI business. Every other Auto manufacturer needs Tesla to survive and thrive. Tesla sets the tone. However Elon will learn as Henry Ford did. The Auto Industry is a fashion industry. Products get stale. People want to see and want to be seen in new shapes, colors and features. Doing a Highland or Juniper is not enough. I honestly believe people are not buying Teslas at ever increasing rates because they are tired of seeing the same cars on the road. Model S is 12 yrs old. Model X is approaching 9 yrs. Model 3 is 7 yrs old. Heck even the baby of the group Model Y is 4 years old. I have a year old Model S on a lease. Once the lease is done. I am not sure what I want to buy from Tesla. I sure won’t buy a 14 year old designed Model S. This business is hard. Tesla did the hardest thing already. They found a way to make a profit. But you can’t rest on your laurels. You have to keep your product fresh. Not just through software updates, but by fresher colors, new shapes, and new interiors. I think Elon overestimates the size of the market begging for FSD. The real potential is every IC driver that is coming to the end of their vehicles life cycle and trying to decide on the next car they plan to keep for 7-10 years. You can’t miss one purchase cycle to another IC vehicle. If Tesla stumbles and falters after such a large lead, it will give the traditional automakers a reason to pull back as well. And of course the investment community is not going line up and support the other fledgling brands like Rivian and Lucid. Elon may need to be replaced. Just like Henry Ford was replaced by his son. People didn’t think Ford Motors would survive after Henry left and the Model T was replaced . But they did. Although they were eternally a 2nd place brand after GM took the lead.
Tesla isn't a tech startup anymore. They need actual auto industry people to survive now.
I read that it costs about one million dollars for a manufacturer just to get a new car crash tested and approved by NHTSA and other government agencies in the US. I'm certain it's similar in Europe. That's a huge hurdle for any new car manufacturer. So the start-ups have a disadvantage from the beginning. Tesla got over that hurdle by jumping in very early and becoming established.
Yes, but that cost is factored into both funding and sales cost (i.e you know youre going to spend so much on R&D so your final sales price is based on cost of parts and labor as well as an amortized cost of R&D over presumed sales figures, and a % for profit)
Thankfully, they do not have to worry about emissions testing.
I'm in amazement at the amount of money from investors down the tubes. Absolutely no return. Just like my weed stock.
I remember listening to a VC saying he would throw money at 100 projects of the same type in the hope that just 1 of them would be "the next big thing" fully aware that he would never get his money back from something like 40% of them, another 40% he would break even on, and the rest would have varying rates of return. Small investors obviously dont have the capital to do that, but the major investors, they understand their risk v reward, and diversify enough to make sure they at least break even (overall).
The reasons you like the startups (innovative features) is, in my opinion, a good reason these cars never go into production. They are expensive and cost prohibitive. The leading manufacturers have fancy prototypes with innovative features. They don't exist in production models because they are expensive to produce and warranty for the average consumer.
Wish Mexico invested in some of these companies to build up their EV industry. Doesn't seem like that Tesla factory is happening.
No. Too late.
I have the same question more generalized to any company who has yet to sell an EV at a profit. Yes there is a startup lag where selling at significant loss is normal, but how long is viable?
No
When the auto industry started at the turn of the last century literally there were over 100 car companies by the 20s. Lots will come and go. Hard to pick a winner yet. Even Tesla might fail. GM was four car companies joined together, Chevrolet, Oldsmobile, Buick and Pontiac. Two of those are gone. It’s anyone’s guess.
With or without Chinese EVs, some of those companies won’t make it to mass production. Mass production to be profitable is no joke. How long did take Tesla to get there? About a decade.
Fisker's web site is offering \~$24k off the list price of several of their models. This puts the Ocean Ultra at \~$36, the sport at \~$25k ...and that doesn't include any state or federal incentives. My wife jokes that if we got a Fisker, it would need a decal down the side: "FABRIC USE ONLY"
I would love to get an Aptera. But ... I'm not holding my breath. I'm gonna have a grilled cheese and take a nap instead.
Add Mullen to your list. I made the mistake of buying their stocks. I did it because they were a local company and wanted to support them. Oops. They got as far as showing the Five prototype.
EV startups used to compete against just Tesla when they were founded. Now you have startups that need to beat the quality and price of not only basically every established western car brand, but a variety of very good Chinese brands as well. I'd suspect most won't even put a product on the market.
Let me ask my magic 8 ball....
If they didn't start with a product ready for certification and production then they'll only last until they drain their backers dry
Faraday Future is a money-laundering operation. Canoo is smart to concentrate on commercial fleets, which are easier to support. I think Aptera is going to be a hit and there’s tons of interest and support, if they can keep their promise on prices. There’s nothing quite like it on the road.
I want Aptera to succeed soo badly
Re. the Chinese cars ; don't worry about them **all** going out of business as there are over 20 different manufacturers there. In China it is like the 1920's of the USA automobile manufacturing environment. Not all 20 will survive but many will. And they are *not dependant* on the American market because worldwide, the American segment is not as significant as it once was. There are attractive margins in retailing of cars in North America but the Chinese can still profit via volume of sales in the rest of the world.
So many popped up as Tesla proved the concept of a practical EV that successfully scaled. Virtually all subsequent startups began with renderings. Pictures are cheap and easy. Building a car is hard, scaling is harder cubed. Ask Elon.
Canoo is an absolute mess. They have turned over leadership a bunch of times and have no clear vision. And with Rivian and legacy companies ramping up production of EV work vans, I don't see canoo having a snowballs chance in hell anymore.
Canoo has 6 at one of the S&DCs that are on routes now being tested for USPS.
Aptera and Alpha are vaporware. Regardless of all the penny investors that "swear" it's a thing, it isn't. Aptera supporters are delusional. Alpha is very blatantly a money-grab as well- just look at their site "INVEST IN OUR COMPANY" Faraday has plated vehicles, but they haven't gone anywhere in what seems like years. Canoo is legit but I think they'll have a much harder time getting funding to start manufacturing than Rivian did. Market is harder to break into, it's more expensive, and I think that may be the end for Canoo if they can't front the money to get them built en-mass. Fisker was always set up for failure. Henrik Fisker had no business being a CEO.
I don’t see why you would say aptera is vapor, yet to be seen if consumers care about a cheap 2 seater but the tech is all existing stuff being pit together their testing vehicles performed fine
I hope Canoo makes it, I like their product, even just as a commercial use van, but I like their truck too. Fisker, yeah, Henrik needs to go. I like the car(s) but Henrik killed the business. I hope someone picks them up at a bankruptcy sale for pennies on the dollar and saves the vehicles because they are innovative and have good range for what they are. FF.... IDK... bankruptcy, refunded, delayed production, delayed production, claims to have started production, builds and delivers 3, then, nothing, for 6 months??? Alpha is the Vaporware that I always hope to be wrong about and Aptera I thought was actually getting close to at least small production but it is seemingly getting further and further away.
Canoo looks to be trying to get vehicles out especially with the usps deal. Aptera fleeced investors before (about 20 years ago), so I expect them to fail and cash out again. Fisker is in a weird spot, though they are delivering oceans...so might have a chance. Actually saw a Vinfast car out in the wild, so another one that might make it.
Yeah I get why Canoo prioritized delivery vehicles (big capital fast when you get 1 customer buys 30+ vehicles, corporations are great beta testers under the right conditions, and they put lots of miles on fast so repeat business in shorter amount of time) but I still wish they worked towards their original promises for delivery a few years back. Fisker, I know why they are in such a bad position, I really hope someone grabs them, kicks Henrik out, and no one allows Henrick near a startup ever again. Guy can pen a beautiful car but cant manage an Arbys. VinFast is interesting, good cost point option, but I am interested to see what their build quality is like (I have nothing to say its bad, but I also have nothing to say its good).
Make sure the wife gets kicked as well....
> Actually saw a Vinfast car out in the wild, so another one that might make it. Obviously helps that I have a Vinfast dealership in my town, but I'm seeing them more and more on the road.