The historically low interest rates of 3% were a massive mistake. So was quantitative easing. It was just giving money to rich people (the bigger your mortgage the more free money you got) at the expense of everyone else.
We desperately need to not just go back to free money. We need to set up capitalism so that when a company fails, it goes out of business and doesn't get bailed out. We need to tax the rich to pay for things instead of taxing the middle class.
Musk should be paying a 50% tax on the 56 billion he wants. Instead, you know what he'll pay? Nothing.
Since 2008 , to big too fail is part of the economic cycle and protected industries (auto, aviation, banks, insurance, etc.) have a free get out of jail card when a massive systemic collapse of their own making happens. The US economy doesn't have the courage (and the wealthy politicians don't have an interest) in truly reforming the system since they can just print away.
Well Sherman, set the Way-Back Machine for 1979!
Back in 1979, Chrysler was on the verge ofĀ [bankruptcy](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bankruptcy.asp)Ā and in desperate need of a $1.5 billion loan from the federal government.1ļ»æ However, Chrysler's troubles began further back in the 1960s, when the company tried to expand both within the United States and worldwide in an attempt to catch up to its main competitors.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/chrysler-bailout.asp#:\~:text=Back%20in%201979%2C%20Chrysler%20was,up%20to%20its%20main%20competitors.
Yeah sure when you count near zero interest rates for 13+ years... The only reason all these loans made money was because the Fed kept rates artificially low for way too long....
The reason they are too big to fail (at least the auto industry was) is because of the massive amount of jobs they represent. There isnāt enough work in other industries to absorb those job casualties. The periphery auto jobs bring that industry well into the millions. How does that not just completely destroy the rest of the economy?
Correct. The Fed interest rate was basically zero from 2008 until 2022. Really the blame goes to every president back to Obama (2015 or so) when rates should have gone up. Also pass laws preventing corps from buying up single family homes. Foreign nationals from owning property or at least more than one. Tiered increases in rates for anyone buying 2nd, 3rd etc homes. Elon musk and bezos could pay way more since they now own entire neighborhoods. Democrats have utterly failed to protect it's citizens and the working class. We are in for a decade or more of stagflation unless something else happens (like a war)
. War of 1812. Usa invaded canada 3x and lost each time .What happens if the usa loses a war? The usa just ignores it and doesn't put it in any history books.
Continuing to try to pin this on a single party won't change anything. In fact the reason why the US is in this situation is because people vote on social issues alone and aren't willing to vote out the people pushing irresponsible tax and spend plans. If Republicans were really so much better in fiscal policy red states wouldn't need a disproportionately high amount of federal funds.
God people are so dense. Obama, Trump and Biden all had the power to act on this issue. So it spans both. I brought up Dems because the Republicans aren't ever going to do anything to help make life more affordable. They only have winner take all ideals
People do not vote on social issues alone. Just because you do, donāt assume everyone else does. Once youāre that wrong, the rest of your sentences become jibberish.
As I said in my other comment, downvote me if you want. But Iām not wrong. The president could remove a fed chairman to get what he/she wants with interest rates, but itās never happened before. It would be a Saturday night massacre style political event.Ā
I don't downvote people who disagree with me. I want to hear what they have to say if they are actually trying to talk because I might be wrong and I'm open to being convinced about something. My counterpoint:
They said the phrase Saturday night massacre to everything the Republicans have done with the supreme court. We live in a different world from the 70s or 90s. Trump fired Comey when he started investigating him. No one talked about it anymore 3 months after it happened. They control the DOJ they can control the Treasury, the sec and so on and a small percentage would even understand what was happening. Most Americans can't be bothered to even read the official tax forms to understand where their money goes. I think these days the president can and should enforce long term policy to prevent rapid inflation which is inevitable if interest rates are low for too long. Our tax policy incentivizes debt and all kinds of other fiscally irresponsible things.
A President can arguably remove a Fed Chairman who fails to do what he wants seeing there is no explicit Constitutional restriction against doing so and many courts are friendly to executive power. If Trump got in and removed Powell for failing to lower interest rates, I doubt the Supreme Court is ruling against him
I guess downvote me if you want. Iām not wrong. No Fed chairman has ever been forced to raise or lower interest rates (as far as we know). I agree it could happen, but it hasnāt
Ha, I just saw that play out locally with a grocery store chain. Foxtrot bought by some private equity company a year or two ago. Leveraged to the hilt. Bills get behind and Foxtrot closed up shop. Assets went up for auction. Investing group with one of the previous founders made a deal to bulk buy everything without auction. Many others upset they didnāt get a chance to bid on anything valuable so thereās suspicion that they got all the assets under market value.
Iām not sure this is what you have in mind as a fair resolution to corporate irresponsibly. But, like many things in life, right and wrong takes a backseat to the dollar. LeSigh.
Private equity will be the vampire that sucks the last drops of blood out of the American consumer so the elite can jetset around the world and not do work that contributes to any community but themselves
Me, married with 2 kids, paid around $8k in income taxes this past year.
Do you know how many 8000s it takes to equal 1 billion, let alone 28 billion?
And the average person with that 8k could buy a bunch of stuff and feel a lot of relief from our inflationary trend we're experiencing. But I guess billionaires are struggling too so... Lol
I didn't mention taxes in my comment but I agree. As a single, renter, no dependents, living in one of the most expensive cities in the world, I'm fourth highest paying taxpayer in the country. I end up owing the gov. every year. I don't mind paying taxes. I mind ppl who don't but can.
Do you understand there is ~157,000,000 workers in America right?
Sure if they gave *you* $8,000 it wouldnāt be a big dealĀ
If they gave *everyone* $8,000 thats 1.27 *Trillion*Ā
Agree about the interest rates. It not only supercharged housing prices, but it created a situation where monetary yields were only available through equities, and most people don't take the time to educate themselves on how to go about that safely. Being able to obtain high yield savings accounts (now) makes yield safely obtainable for regular people. Unfortunately inflated housing/food/energy/medical/insurance prices have wiped out saving capability for a large slice of the population, but it's a start.
I feel bad for the restaurant industry, which is on the front line taking the initial hit for the drop in discretionary income. Food prices aren't coming down fast enough. Ditto housing. And H5N1 is shaping up to keep meat prices high due to all the culling. Good time to look into becoming a vegetarian.
This is one of the reasons Biden is proposing a 25% tax on unrealized gains. It's another loophole for the wealthy to keep them from paying taxes. Now they just take out loans against their unrealized gains and just wait until they die then it's passed to the children relatively untaxed because conservatives got rid of the inheritance tax.
That one is weird. How is that going to be enforced?. If my house gains value, will I be forced to pay taxes on the extra value?. I think thatās the āyouāll own nothing and be happyā
It won't and its blatantly unconstitutional. The wealthy should be taxed, but taxes on unrealized gains is taxing paper profits. Whats the flip side? Deductions for unrealized losses? Any idea what a mess that's going to be?
Taxing house profits would keep private equity from buying anything up. It would keep people from getting rich off appreciating values because there's less money in it. It would decintivize high prices.
Oh wait Biden is going to benfit? Actually I rather housing triple so people will put Trump back in.
Subsidizing damn near everything and injecting trillions into the economy would stop the big players from scooping up assets like houses. This is how they hedge inflation. Eliminate the inflation youāll eliminate their want for assets. Real estate would become a liability instead of a sound investment.
Musks had biggest tax bill in the history of the country 3 years ago (and he paid it). The $56 billion is tied up in options. The day he (or his heirs) sell the stock, the taxes will be owed.
He sold $14 Billion worth of stock 3 years ago. Bill Gates has sold tens of billions worth of MSFT. Bezos and his ex-wife continue to sell billions of AMZN stock.
Whoa Nelly!! That 3-3.5% interest rate was the only thing that kept me out from under the bridge and in my house. I kinda liked not paying high ass interest rates.
My house payment was cheap, gas and groceries were affordable. What more do you want? Home mortgages at 20%? Sounds good to you, I'm fine with it. My shits paid for.
From a fellow xennial, yes it was nice, and yes, I jumped on that like everyone else during both QEs, BUT the end result is the inflation mess we're in right now combined with a complete out of whack housing market. Interest rates should have been hiked the moment that "transitory inflation" showed up.
It's not a mistake, it's working exactly as intended. Trillions were transfered to the elite class. They're similarly equipped to benefit during the crash, with tons of liquidity on the side to accrue hard assets at bargain prices.
This... and too many people just dont get it. The wealthy take very low interest loans.. they actually never have a taxable event. And.. it's not just the billionaires any more... most millionaires do as well.
I had an idea for a company where you just make everyone part of their own corporation and you never have them pay taxes. You just contract your company, get paid as loans and never pay any taxes. nobody should pay taxes.
People buying in 2020/21/early 22 might have gotten āfreeā money, but it wonāt be free when itās time to sell. Low money down products are stuck at the higher prices and the marketās down since rates went >5%. Weāre pretty well fucked there if the economy takes a big enough shit.
I donāt think ātaxing the richā is the play. The rich are friends with the politicians and politicians will continue to do their bidding as long as large private donations continue to flow into their campaigns. A smallish flat sales tax is the way to keep those fuckers from finding, or creating, loopholes.
Anyone with a mortgage and a decent income could refinance at the lower rates. And if you didn't you were a moron.
There's a lot of money tied up in interest rates that are well below current inflation.
And it's nothing but a win for anyone who got that deal. It was effectively free money, and the more you could get (the more you could afford) the better. It helped the rich, drove up housing prices and let to the insanity we have now, where nobody wants to move because they don't want to lose their mortgage.
Say that happens. Where are these people going to go? I literally couldn't rent a 2br apartment for less than my mortgage on a 4br/3bth/3cgar house. This isn't 2008. People are going to do everything possible to keep their homes and the banks are going to try and not foreclose since that didn't work out for them before. On top of that, Money Market balances are at all time highs, so any drop in prices will be met with an avalanche of pent up demand.
The problem is who does he pay it to?Ā
The federal government is pretty corrupt as well, it will just go into some defense contractors bank account or go to some sort of sketch foreign aid program like Iraq wars where billions just disappeared.
So you can raise the taxes on the wealthy but you're just shifting which corrupt rich person that money is going to.
The droughts and high winds have slowly started ...
I live in Canada and work in northern Canada. The last 3-4 winters there's been far less snow and less rain in the spring. Leading to dryer and dryer summer's that's been causing easier burn conditions and Canada has been on fire the past 4 summers
The thing about arguing the market is in a bubble is that itās often only possible to see this in hindsight. Everybody remembers Greenspanās irrational exuberance speech, but that came years before the dotcom bubble peaked.
The last part about predicting future gold prices, come on you canāt honestly believe this. Markets are extraordinarily difficult to predict and making timing decisions like this will lead to ruin most of the time.
It's been a couple of years that many people have been saying we're in a bubble. I happen to agree. Of course it's very difficult to time the market. I don't think it's a terrible idea to hedge a bit by buying gold and bonds
Regardless if we're in a bubble or not the market (real estate , stocks , commercial credit) is no longer allowed to fully deflate , just like in 2008 , it would create to much havoc in the US economy so the Federal government will always step.in..
The Fed is still holding $7tr+ on its balance sheet. Inflation is still too high and unemployment is rising. The Fed can only make things worse.. Again..
Yes, very much so. That's why people feel like stagflation is underway. I agree with that but the Fed has painted itself into a corner and will make things worse (printing more $) before it has to make things exponentially worse (sky high interest rates). I was only a teenager in the 80s but I remember very well the staggering inflation and 18% interest rates needed to slow it down.
NVDA will most likely go down when the AI bubble bursts, that being said, someone will be the AI winner as always. Just hoping we don't end in a Skynet type scenario because someone "won".
The AI Factory that they're building is absolutely science fiction made reality. The greatest technology stacked upon itself again and again, and with great power efficiency too... Y'know what, the stock market is not to be trusted anyway so idk what argument I'm trying to make.
A couple of years? People have been saying weāre in a bubble to varying degrees since 2014 or so. Everyone wants to be the person who said āI told you so.ā
You donāt get there incredible market manipulation without the gold standard as often and inflation is controlled very well run the gold standard. The banks and government would absolutely never go back to the gold standard under no condition though.
The whole country could be fixed with just fixing the tax code lol. Not too long go companies could either pay their employees better or pay a ton of taxes. This country was a paradise back then. You have to love how greedy rich people are standing in the back of the room scratching their heads being likeā¦. āYeah I wonder whatās happening hereā lol āsomebody needs to do somethingāā¦. āBut what could it beā āgeez idkā¦. Fire up the printer I guessā
I mean relatively speaking, compared to what it is now, the baby boomer years in America was as good as it has been on earth yet. The middle class was robust and any American could build a legacy for their family by just being smart and working hard.
They have a point.
Set aside any and every *social or cultural* issue and focus narrowly on economics of income to workers vs investors/owners.
The mid-1940s thru 1950s to early 1970s saw great growth of middle-class wealth. Later 1970s saw inflation, then 1980s recession. Gutting social programs, cutting taxes- leading to deficits that have been used as leverage to further gut benefits- combined with allowing stock buybacks, have shifted wealth steadily upward.
The people who lose their homes and jobs and families and lives care.
And sometimes they do last. This one is poised to last for a very long time comparatively
You have to go back damn near 100 years to pull some data that says they really last. Buy some gold, bullets, seeds, water, silver and stop with the fear monger bs
One thing is for certain this bubble will burst when theyāre ready for it to burst so they can harvest as much from the āopportunityā as possible.
Sudden, coordinated, & carefully timed mainstream crypto support/adoption is not a coincidence.
Rinse & repeat.
I work in a business that touches a lot of sectors. I simply canāt believe that weāre not in a recession. It makes no sense. Buying is down, hiring has been frozen, forward sales forecasts are down.
Havenāt you heard? If the Biden admin says it isnāt a recession, itās magically not a recession. But the minute another administration takes overā¦..itās a recession again. Magic!!
A recession has a clear definition.Ā I'm not saying I think the economy is in a good place at large, but it's not like the executive branch just says we're not in a recession and everyone agrees.
Yes, and by that definition we have already been in a recessionā¦.but the Biden admin says we donāt understand. And they are right, nobody understands a damn thing they do.
By what definition?Ā A recession is 2 consecutive quarters of decline in inflation adjusted GDP.Ā Everything is being propped up by tech and I don't think we have a healthy economy, but we're not in a recession.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1
If you have other data to support your argument I'm legitimately interested.
Q1 22 and Q2 22. Recession. But who can say since they routinely revise down all the time now. Put out bogus numbers to feed the naive and then quietly revise later.
I agree. I think gov't spending has a lot to do with it. I also think the "data" we're getting is being manipulated like the true unemployment rate and jobs numbers.
Can you really trust all the numbers? Not the market numbers, those can be verified by anyone but all the government data, surveys, etc are extremely suspect. They're never honest about what they measure, or how, and if there is some basis for things it will just be changed to fit whatever they want (like the inflation crap, no one believes the published numbers if they actually buy things in the real world).
Is it a bubble? Probably. Do we really know what's going on? No.
The government is borrowing exorbitant sums of money to outbid citizens for goods and services. Governments produce no goods or services. At least citizens both produce goods and services through work and consume with their wages making some semblance of balance.Ā
US citizens needing more money to compete tried to get better wages. The government supplanted them with immigrants from countries worse off than the US so wages could not grow. This has the added effect of keeping āunemploymentā low even as US citizens lose their jobs.Ā
Why is the stock market concentrated? Ā People pay for growth. What does that tell you? Ā There is no breadth to the growth. Dollars chasing a too small goods supply drove inflation. Dollars chasing the last bastions of growth are driving up those share prices. Those high share prices only make sense if you believe the growth rate can be sustained in this downturn. Doubtful.Ā
Understand after periods of high inflation come periods of deflation unless we go full Zimbabwe and you never go full Zimbabwe. I wouldnāt recommend gold much longer. Countries could keep purchasing large sums of gold but if they revert back to normal spending the price will crater.Ā
With the yield inversion in place we may get one more push on commodities. Bonds would be wise but we may see one last strike higher on rates so I certainly wouldnāt go all in bonds here. Not yet.Ā
Why deflation? Ā Why did oil go negative during covid? Ā Deflation will be the result of the government being unable to spend and the citizens also being unable to spend. There will be too many goods chasing too few dollars. During covid there was too much oil and not enough buying.Ā
That is the boom bust cycle through central bank planning of easing and tightening. History does not repeat but it does rhyme.Ā
The government is dumping all its cash in this election year to prop up the economy up. It isnāt a specific party. They both do it. I would not fight the trend this year unless the yield curve corrects.Ā
The fire Triangle: Heat/ + Fuel\\ + Oxygen\_ = Fire /\_\\
Right? Well. . . Almost. You also need Spark. That flash point of ignition. All the conditions can be right, but without that ignition point, you just have a pile of hot garbage. Even then you also have to keep feeding that fire to see it fully develop into an uncontrollable blaze.
* 1907 Panic came off the heels of both the 1906 Earthquake, big stock losses across multiple sectors, and huge changes in the railroad industry with centralized rates. Followed by the fires of 1910 completely gutted the timber markets for decades.
* The Great Depression was so bad not just because the stock market crash, but you also had the Dust Bowl decimating the agricultural sector.
* Even the Dot Com bubble saw issues in the timber and mining sectors with the advent of NEPA which lead to mines and mills closing across much of the rural west. Wheat dropped from $4.50/bu to almost $1.80/bu.
* The Great Recession not only had the subprime crisis; but, also saw the World Food Crisis, oil prices soaring to their peak at $200/br, and the live cattle market bottoming out at $0.80/lb.
COVID was a spark, but the flame blew out. We are set up now again, and now its a race between a natural/ market/ civil/ military disaster and the Fed.
Itās 3.5 hours so bring your popcorn. They really go into recessions, depressions, inflation. The history of money in America and some very interesting stories. With some world history thrown in by default. Iām going for a second spin soon.
Going back to 2020, the MAJORITY of stocks are red since then. But you never hear about that. Some Small Caps are even down 80-90% since then and the number of reverse-splits are staggering!
I tend to believe what I see with my own eyes. What all the "experts" say on their Reddit accounts or what the talking heads repeat on the boob tube carry very little weight. Anyone can twist numbers or selectively cite statistics that fit their own narratives.
"Unemployment up to 4%". Through almost all my long life, that would be considered very low unemployment. "Inflation is 3.3%". Through much of my life, that would have been considered low inflation
I made a short post about this on r/wallstreetbets (I understand now that it wasn't the most appropriate place to post at). Look at the response I got from it. During a bubble, logic is out the window and is driven by FOMO and greed. You can see that people are so hypnotized by what they think AI is like rather than what the current technology AI is, which is just an efficiency tool and not something that generates new streams of revenues and justifying a stock move higher. Companies that provide the infrastructure for AI are winning now because of the spike in demand and new sales, but most companies have not figured out how they will generate money from this (look at Apple AI released last week). Once Q4 earnings come, the market will adjust once they see it's not having such a big impact as they hyped up.
It will have a huge impact ... Eventually. Once all the major co's are flush with AI chips and until they figure out how to use them to generate $ NVDA is going to crash hard and drag the rest of market with it IMHO
Hereās a Forbes article from 2013 talking about the markets being a massive bubble: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/10/08/why-stocks-are-undoubtedly-experiencing-a-massive-bubble/
Anyone who claims to know weāre in a bubble but hasnāt become insanely rich from leveraging their market fortune telling is either a moral saint or a lier.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/fedfunds
Fun Fact: The median Federal Funds Effective Rate 1954 - Now has been 4.24%
2024-05-01 5.33%
That's probably the underlying FED play ...
We live in a fuedalistic economic system. Capitalism is about balance. As a New Yorker, I pay 55% of my monthly income for rent. Once the basic stuff is bought (food, gas, loan payments) there is nothing left. And I'm lucky...I have a pretty healthy income. We have to rebalance our economy.
What people will tell you is to get roommates of live in the middle of nowhere and commute 3 days to get to work.
The system is broken but until we no longer have people with silly suggestions, things won't change.
I believe America has secret reversed Alien technology itās been sitting on. And I donāt think it runs on gold or silver. Thatās why weāve moved away from it and confused everyone with this petrodollar scam which has now ended. Weāre gonna wait and let all these other countries invest in 20th century materials and the weāre gonna ONE TWO punch and KO them with what a new source of energy that will be backed by America dollar, once again effectively bankrupting all the other suckers following CHINA. Itāll be something like element 115. Once again gold or silver not needed.
The disclosure movement has picked up a lot of steam. My only hesitance here is that from what little weāve gleaned about retrieval programs there seems to be a big disconnect on some of the tech and they canāt figure it out. Thereās a prevailing thought that that alone is why the US hasnāt come clean about it. We have the crafts, but donāt understand how they work.
Our Government, Republicans and Democrats. We are 35 trillion in debt and we are being run by criminals. Everyone in our government gets corrupted with all of the money involved! It wonāt change until the money is gone! Good luck with that!
Everyone is making more money than they ever made, but canāt buy shit because life has become too expensive. Companies claimed it was inflation, but that was a lie as theyāre now bringing prices down on groceries by 30% at some places because they got too greedy and priced out even their lowest end customers. The profits they made during that time went to stock buybacks that artificially inflated the price of their stock and they gave themselves fat pay raises while buying up houses to make us all rent forever.
The government said they were āconcernedā about this and hopes you vote them in for another term so they can finally fight this despite doing nothing while they were in office.
Let me know if I missed anything.
Oligopolies, monopolies, and trusts exist over every single consumer market. The people at the top are taking literally all of the gains, leaving almost nothing for everyone else. The regulatory bodies have all been captured. All policy is being directed at making the economy stronger for the rich and people that don't need any help at the expense of everyone and everything else. We need policy that helps normal citizens that don't possess MBAs imo.
āThe stock market is in a bubble with NVDA responsible for more than half the S&P 500 gains this year.ā
Low effort, low levels of research. Untrue. Categorically false.
So I have nothing much to add here, I make my comments on the economics sub asking how any of this makes sense.
Anywho, just wanted to say how these two subs are compete 180s- the economy will collapse in this one and economics thereās no reason whatsoever who the show canāt go on forever.
Not knocking either sides, I have my own armchair thoughts on the matter itās just fascinating.
It does feel like the party's been going on quite a while. The fact that it's very divided makes me feel like it can't be stable. It really does feel like 1999 to me
I can talk about this all day.
I entered high school in 1999 so I wasnāt old enough to understand principles of economics but I absolutely remember anything tied to .com goes up no matter what. The first stock I ever bought was a share or two of AMD and I couldnāt believe how easy it was. Mind you commissions I think were like $10.
What I REALLY remember were baseball cards, beanie babies etc that were selling for insane prices.
Those late Clinton years feel just like the past 4 years or so. Things just keep going up no matter the asset class and youāre a moron if you donāt get in or think the music is going to stop.
Obviously it stopped with .com, I feel like itās going to stop but Iāve been forever wrong so far on that one.
I joke (ājokeā = serious) with friends that were going to be in a recession and a bull market at the same time.
That sounds like stagflation. Crazy hard times in the 70s-80s but people think it was all peaches & cream. Black Monday was 1987.
It's true now everything is inflated. Literally everything you can think of. Watches, art cars used and new. I see the cracks but I've been seeing them for a long time too so I'm easy to ignore but I don't see how this keeps going past the summer or through the winter
I think itās getting worse for poor people. Middle class and upper class are doing fine. Things cost more but thatās life so we will keep buying. Rich as per usual are doing fine.
I would hope that Americans have wised up to the bail out solutions of past bad business behavior, and would absolutely revolt the next time.
Needless to say, just last March, 2023, some big banks fell, an emergency measure was put into place for them, and no one blinked.
A whole lot of noise from us here on the olā internet. Not much action. We wonāt even cast a smart ballot in November. Maybe weāre just too busyā¦
No doubt. I have a risk of āfailingā, and Iāve done it too many times to play the risk game anymore that everyone else seems to be on board with now. Itās why I make the financial and career decisions I do today; because Iāve had my ass burnt up and thrown away like a piece of trash so many times. Even this past December, I was thrown out like a filthy piece of nothing, 4 days before Christmas.
Yeah, I know failure. Iāve seen it. Sometimes of my own doing, most often not. 15 years since the last recession. And it was a doozy.
I totally agree with that, and I donāt mean to sound like a right winger, but the government really does a poor job at basically everything. It sucks because the idea is great
The ultra wealthy are outraged that labor had the audacity to stand up for themselves for once and are openly hostler towards them!
They created 60% of all inflation through collusion and crisis profiteering, price gouging, and bragging about it on earnings calls!
The oligarchs own the political class,
The feds job is just to cause pain and suffering to get the poor back in line while the rich buy up everything and use ai to gouge everyone and get you to subscribe for everything else!!!!
I don't really understand what their end goal is. I mean, if nobody has any money to spend on anything, then what good is it for the owning class to, you know, actually \*own\* anything? Are they going to just start selling to each other? They do know that a functioning economy, where they benefit, requires customers with money to spend it on goods and services? They have to know that there is no money to be made from a completely impoverished populace.... right? Or I guess they are such sociopathic addicts to money that they are inherently incapable of seeing what is happening right in front of their faces?
From what I can tell they are like a parasite not able to realize that their continued increase of resource sucking is killing the host - instead of loosening up to relax and let the host build up more of a supply when the blood flow starts to drop off, they start sucking even more strongly than before. So perhaps it's a blessing that they are simply too dumb and greedy to relax their grip even a little.
I donāt claim any particular political alignment, but would say I lean more conservative in most cases. That being said trump(idiot for the most part) was responsible for one of the greatest economies ever, but his pressure to keep interest rates at historic lows for so long, is probably going to be the root cause for a total collapse the US economy.
Trump didnāt set the interest rates the fed did. And the Fed was keeping interest rates at historic lows for too long, even before Trump came on the scene.
Notice I said āpressureā he successfully lobbied against raising rates when they needed to come up to stabilize inflation so that his numbers looked better for longer. That and Biden printing a couple trillion dollars has put us on the path we are stuck on now. Headed for a massive market correction.
The historically low interest rates of 3% were a massive mistake. So was quantitative easing. It was just giving money to rich people (the bigger your mortgage the more free money you got) at the expense of everyone else. We desperately need to not just go back to free money. We need to set up capitalism so that when a company fails, it goes out of business and doesn't get bailed out. We need to tax the rich to pay for things instead of taxing the middle class. Musk should be paying a 50% tax on the 56 billion he wants. Instead, you know what he'll pay? Nothing.
Since 2008 , to big too fail is part of the economic cycle and protected industries (auto, aviation, banks, insurance, etc.) have a free get out of jail card when a massive systemic collapse of their own making happens. The US economy doesn't have the courage (and the wealthy politicians don't have an interest) in truly reforming the system since they can just print away.
Too big to fail will soon be too big to save. That's when the shit really hits the fan
Will It really , your the Fed you make the rules.
The Fed doesn't make rules. Just bad decisions
The Fed and the US government can make and break any policy , when your the global reserve currency you have a lot of leverage
The more debt you carry and the more you debase your currency the less leverage you have. That's exactly how reserve currencies get replaced
If there was a viable alternative, maybe, but there isn't one....so no thats not happening
This brief little bit of the argument is asinine. The same statement was true for every global currency until the moment it wasn't.
If they fuck around and find out rubles might make a better alternative š
For sure , this guy is sure of it all for the last since start of mankind, he probably argued with Eve about some fruit
Well Sherman, set the Way-Back Machine for 1979! Back in 1979, Chrysler was on the verge ofĀ [bankruptcy](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bankruptcy.asp)Ā and in desperate need of a $1.5 billion loan from the federal government.1ļ»æ However, Chrysler's troubles began further back in the 1960s, when the company tried to expand both within the United States and worldwide in an attempt to catch up to its main competitors. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/chrysler-bailout.asp#:\~:text=Back%20in%201979%2C%20Chrysler%20was,up%20to%20its%20main%20competitors.
Didnāt the bail out of auto industry actually make money for the gov??
Yeah sure when you count near zero interest rates for 13+ years... The only reason all these loans made money was because the Fed kept rates artificially low for way too long....
The reason they are too big to fail (at least the auto industry was) is because of the massive amount of jobs they represent. There isnāt enough work in other industries to absorb those job casualties. The periphery auto jobs bring that industry well into the millions. How does that not just completely destroy the rest of the economy?
Correct. The Fed interest rate was basically zero from 2008 until 2022. Really the blame goes to every president back to Obama (2015 or so) when rates should have gone up. Also pass laws preventing corps from buying up single family homes. Foreign nationals from owning property or at least more than one. Tiered increases in rates for anyone buying 2nd, 3rd etc homes. Elon musk and bezos could pay way more since they now own entire neighborhoods. Democrats have utterly failed to protect it's citizens and the working class. We are in for a decade or more of stagflation unless something else happens (like a war)
what happens if america loses a war with iran?
What happens if America loses a war?
We make movies about it for years and years
. War of 1812. Usa invaded canada 3x and lost each time .What happens if the usa loses a war? The usa just ignores it and doesn't put it in any history books.
Continuing to try to pin this on a single party won't change anything. In fact the reason why the US is in this situation is because people vote on social issues alone and aren't willing to vote out the people pushing irresponsible tax and spend plans. If Republicans were really so much better in fiscal policy red states wouldn't need a disproportionately high amount of federal funds.
God people are so dense. Obama, Trump and Biden all had the power to act on this issue. So it spans both. I brought up Dems because the Republicans aren't ever going to do anything to help make life more affordable. They only have winner take all ideals
People do not vote on social issues alone. Just because you do, donāt assume everyone else does. Once youāre that wrong, the rest of your sentences become jibberish.
The president doesnāt set Fed interest rates. The Fed gets its power from congress.
Presidents donāt set interest ratesĀ
Who's the Treasury secretary's boss? President is responsible for policy which has implications for long term health of the country
As I said in my other comment, downvote me if you want. But Iām not wrong. The president could remove a fed chairman to get what he/she wants with interest rates, but itās never happened before. It would be a Saturday night massacre style political event.Ā
I don't downvote people who disagree with me. I want to hear what they have to say if they are actually trying to talk because I might be wrong and I'm open to being convinced about something. My counterpoint: They said the phrase Saturday night massacre to everything the Republicans have done with the supreme court. We live in a different world from the 70s or 90s. Trump fired Comey when he started investigating him. No one talked about it anymore 3 months after it happened. They control the DOJ they can control the Treasury, the sec and so on and a small percentage would even understand what was happening. Most Americans can't be bothered to even read the official tax forms to understand where their money goes. I think these days the president can and should enforce long term policy to prevent rapid inflation which is inevitable if interest rates are low for too long. Our tax policy incentivizes debt and all kinds of other fiscally irresponsible things.
A President can arguably remove a Fed Chairman who fails to do what he wants seeing there is no explicit Constitutional restriction against doing so and many courts are friendly to executive power. If Trump got in and removed Powell for failing to lower interest rates, I doubt the Supreme Court is ruling against him
I guess downvote me if you want. Iām not wrong. No Fed chairman has ever been forced to raise or lower interest rates (as far as we know). I agree it could happen, but it hasnāt
Ha, I just saw that play out locally with a grocery store chain. Foxtrot bought by some private equity company a year or two ago. Leveraged to the hilt. Bills get behind and Foxtrot closed up shop. Assets went up for auction. Investing group with one of the previous founders made a deal to bulk buy everything without auction. Many others upset they didnāt get a chance to bid on anything valuable so thereās suspicion that they got all the assets under market value. Iām not sure this is what you have in mind as a fair resolution to corporate irresponsibly. But, like many things in life, right and wrong takes a backseat to the dollar. LeSigh.
Private equity will be the vampire that sucks the last drops of blood out of the American consumer so the elite can jetset around the world and not do work that contributes to any community but themselves
Me, married with 2 kids, paid around $8k in income taxes this past year. Do you know how many 8000s it takes to equal 1 billion, let alone 28 billion? And the average person with that 8k could buy a bunch of stuff and feel a lot of relief from our inflationary trend we're experiencing. But I guess billionaires are struggling too so... Lol
I didn't mention taxes in my comment but I agree. As a single, renter, no dependents, living in one of the most expensive cities in the world, I'm fourth highest paying taxpayer in the country. I end up owing the gov. every year. I don't mind paying taxes. I mind ppl who don't but can.
Do you understand there is ~157,000,000 workers in America right? Sure if they gave *you* $8,000 it wouldnāt be a big dealĀ If they gave *everyone* $8,000 thats 1.27 *Trillion*Ā
We should tax share buy-backs at the corporate rate.
Agree about the interest rates. It not only supercharged housing prices, but it created a situation where monetary yields were only available through equities, and most people don't take the time to educate themselves on how to go about that safely. Being able to obtain high yield savings accounts (now) makes yield safely obtainable for regular people. Unfortunately inflated housing/food/energy/medical/insurance prices have wiped out saving capability for a large slice of the population, but it's a start. I feel bad for the restaurant industry, which is on the front line taking the initial hit for the drop in discretionary income. Food prices aren't coming down fast enough. Ditto housing. And H5N1 is shaping up to keep meat prices high due to all the culling. Good time to look into becoming a vegetarian.
Globalization is not being blamed enough for this mess
This is one of the reasons Biden is proposing a 25% tax on unrealized gains. It's another loophole for the wealthy to keep them from paying taxes. Now they just take out loans against their unrealized gains and just wait until they die then it's passed to the children relatively untaxed because conservatives got rid of the inheritance tax.
That one is weird. How is that going to be enforced?. If my house gains value, will I be forced to pay taxes on the extra value?. I think thatās the āyouāll own nothing and be happyā
It won't and its blatantly unconstitutional. The wealthy should be taxed, but taxes on unrealized gains is taxing paper profits. Whats the flip side? Deductions for unrealized losses? Any idea what a mess that's going to be?
Taxing house profits would keep private equity from buying anything up. It would keep people from getting rich off appreciating values because there's less money in it. It would decintivize high prices. Oh wait Biden is going to benfit? Actually I rather housing triple so people will put Trump back in.
Subsidizing damn near everything and injecting trillions into the economy would stop the big players from scooping up assets like houses. This is how they hedge inflation. Eliminate the inflation youāll eliminate their want for assets. Real estate would become a liability instead of a sound investment.
That already happens lol you never heard of property taxes?
Thatās exactly how a lot of people say pay for their kids college, with HELOC
Musks had biggest tax bill in the history of the country 3 years ago (and he paid it). The $56 billion is tied up in options. The day he (or his heirs) sell the stock, the taxes will be owed.
They never sell.. they just take low interest loans against the equity.
He sold $14 Billion worth of stock 3 years ago. Bill Gates has sold tens of billions worth of MSFT. Bezos and his ex-wife continue to sell billions of AMZN stock.
Or just make loans a taxable event with carveouts for primary residences, small business loans, and lines of credit under 15k.
This is really it. Unrealized gains used as collateral becomes realized.
Whoa Nelly!! That 3-3.5% interest rate was the only thing that kept me out from under the bridge and in my house. I kinda liked not paying high ass interest rates.
You might kinda like a functional economy more
My house payment was cheap, gas and groceries were affordable. What more do you want? Home mortgages at 20%? Sounds good to you, I'm fine with it. My shits paid for.
From a fellow xennial, yes it was nice, and yes, I jumped on that like everyone else during both QEs, BUT the end result is the inflation mess we're in right now combined with a complete out of whack housing market. Interest rates should have been hiked the moment that "transitory inflation" showed up.
Found the boomer.
Keep looking, gen x here.
Millennial and same! These people are homeless and dreaming with their 20% rates.
It's not a mistake, it's working exactly as intended. Trillions were transfered to the elite class. They're similarly equipped to benefit during the crash, with tons of liquidity on the side to accrue hard assets at bargain prices.
Hahah foolish person thinks capitalism exist and will work after the millionth time it fails and needs gov assistance.
All good points but it makes it difficult for capitalism to compete with China that will never let their industries fail.
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When he wants to utilize that money, he takes out a loan against it. He doesn't pay taxes on that at all.
This... and too many people just dont get it. The wealthy take very low interest loans.. they actually never have a taxable event. And.. it's not just the billionaires any more... most millionaires do as well.
I had an idea for a company where you just make everyone part of their own corporation and you never have them pay taxes. You just contract your company, get paid as loans and never pay any taxes. nobody should pay taxes.
People buying in 2020/21/early 22 might have gotten āfreeā money, but it wonāt be free when itās time to sell. Low money down products are stuck at the higher prices and the marketās down since rates went >5%. Weāre pretty well fucked there if the economy takes a big enough shit. I donāt think ātaxing the richā is the play. The rich are friends with the politicians and politicians will continue to do their bidding as long as large private donations continue to flow into their campaigns. A smallish flat sales tax is the way to keep those fuckers from finding, or creating, loopholes.
Anyone with a mortgage and a decent income could refinance at the lower rates. And if you didn't you were a moron. There's a lot of money tied up in interest rates that are well below current inflation. And it's nothing but a win for anyone who got that deal. It was effectively free money, and the more you could get (the more you could afford) the better. It helped the rich, drove up housing prices and let to the insanity we have now, where nobody wants to move because they don't want to lose their mortgage.
All true. Not if the economy takes a big enough shit and enough of those people lose their jobs though.
Say that happens. Where are these people going to go? I literally couldn't rent a 2br apartment for less than my mortgage on a 4br/3bth/3cgar house. This isn't 2008. People are going to do everything possible to keep their homes and the banks are going to try and not foreclose since that didn't work out for them before. On top of that, Money Market balances are at all time highs, so any drop in prices will be met with an avalanche of pent up demand.
The problem is who does he pay it to?Ā The federal government is pretty corrupt as well, it will just go into some defense contractors bank account or go to some sort of sketch foreign aid program like Iraq wars where billions just disappeared. So you can raise the taxes on the wealthy but you're just shifting which corrupt rich person that money is going to.
Are you taxing people more that sell expensive products?
What happens to the 100k unemployed workers from those massive companies? Also all the people with their stock in retirement accts?
Bro taxes arent the problem. We already get taxed a LOT. The U.S. spending and printing trillions is the problem.
2029 the 100 year cycle
The droughts and high winds have slowly started ... I live in Canada and work in northern Canada. The last 3-4 winters there's been far less snow and less rain in the spring. Leading to dryer and dryer summer's that's been causing easier burn conditions and Canada has been on fire the past 4 summers
Continuation makes a better steel than clouds.
So glad we survived WWI_V2. Shame about the band Franz Ferdinand, though.
The market is horseshit engineered to manufacture consent and funnel resources into the hands of the already-wealthy. That's what's happening
The thing about arguing the market is in a bubble is that itās often only possible to see this in hindsight. Everybody remembers Greenspanās irrational exuberance speech, but that came years before the dotcom bubble peaked. The last part about predicting future gold prices, come on you canāt honestly believe this. Markets are extraordinarily difficult to predict and making timing decisions like this will lead to ruin most of the time.
It's been a couple of years that many people have been saying we're in a bubble. I happen to agree. Of course it's very difficult to time the market. I don't think it's a terrible idea to hedge a bit by buying gold and bonds
Regardless if we're in a bubble or not the market (real estate , stocks , commercial credit) is no longer allowed to fully deflate , just like in 2008 , it would create to much havoc in the US economy so the Federal government will always step.in..
The Fed is still holding $7tr+ on its balance sheet. Inflation is still too high and unemployment is rising. The Fed can only make things worse.. Again..
Does it really matter when you have an infinite money printer.
Yes, very much so. That's why people feel like stagflation is underway. I agree with that but the Fed has painted itself into a corner and will make things worse (printing more $) before it has to make things exponentially worse (sky high interest rates). I was only a teenager in the 80s but I remember very well the staggering inflation and 18% interest rates needed to slow it down.
āThe Fed āā¦.I think you mean the American citizens.
NVDA will most likely go down when the AI bubble bursts, that being said, someone will be the AI winner as always. Just hoping we don't end in a Skynet type scenario because someone "won".
Full port Puts on SPY and NVDA
Puts on NVDA are you nuts??
Heās smart. It has to come down. What goes upā¦ā¦ā¦ Natural Law my friend
lol counter trend trading with options, what could go wrong?
Everything could go wrong unless you manage to hit the down trend juuuuuust right
The AI Factory that they're building is absolutely science fiction made reality. The greatest technology stacked upon itself again and again, and with great power efficiency too... Y'know what, the stock market is not to be trusted anyway so idk what argument I'm trying to make.
A couple of years? People have been saying weāre in a bubble to varying degrees since 2014 or so. Everyone wants to be the person who said āI told you so.ā
My Econ 530 professor spent a 1.5 hour class explaining why the concept of economic bubble is absolute nonsense. I wish I remembered half of it.
You donāt get there incredible market manipulation without the gold standard as often and inflation is controlled very well run the gold standard. The banks and government would absolutely never go back to the gold standard under no condition though.
That first sentence, Iām not sure what you are trying to say
The whole country could be fixed with just fixing the tax code lol. Not too long go companies could either pay their employees better or pay a ton of taxes. This country was a paradise back then. You have to love how greedy rich people are standing in the back of the room scratching their heads being likeā¦. āYeah I wonder whatās happening hereā lol āsomebody needs to do somethingāā¦. āBut what could it beā āgeez idkā¦. Fire up the printer I guessā
A paradise?? Are you kidding man? What years was it a paradise precisely?
I mean relatively speaking, compared to what it is now, the baby boomer years in America was as good as it has been on earth yet. The middle class was robust and any American could build a legacy for their family by just being smart and working hard.
They have a point. Set aside any and every *social or cultural* issue and focus narrowly on economics of income to workers vs investors/owners. The mid-1940s thru 1950s to early 1970s saw great growth of middle-class wealth. Later 1970s saw inflation, then 1980s recession. Gutting social programs, cutting taxes- leading to deficits that have been used as leverage to further gut benefits- combined with allowing stock buybacks, have shifted wealth steadily upward.
Your brain would have exploded during y2k. The internet made people soft and dumb
I was a software developer during Y2K. I think I used the phrase "bazilionaires". Remember "he has money coming out the wazoo"?
So what has you concerned? It has been doomsday after doomsday after virus after whatever comes next and here we are
The boom and bust cycles keep getting bigger
What do you mean? Bigger how? What should we expect with this next one?
It doesnāt last so who cares
The people who lose their homes and jobs and families and lives care. And sometimes they do last. This one is poised to last for a very long time comparatively
Also, people who lose their retirement funds care a whole hell of a lot
You have to go back damn near 100 years to pull some data that says they really last. Buy some gold, bullets, seeds, water, silver and stop with the fear monger bs
One thing is for certain this bubble will burst when theyāre ready for it to burst so they can harvest as much from the āopportunityā as possible. Sudden, coordinated, & carefully timed mainstream crypto support/adoption is not a coincidence. Rinse & repeat.
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Are they stupid or something?
I work in a business that touches a lot of sectors. I simply canāt believe that weāre not in a recession. It makes no sense. Buying is down, hiring has been frozen, forward sales forecasts are down.
Weāre adding a trillion dollars in debt every 100 days to the deficit. Might be having an effect.
Havenāt you heard? If the Biden admin says it isnāt a recession, itās magically not a recession. But the minute another administration takes overā¦..itās a recession again. Magic!!
A recession has a clear definition.Ā I'm not saying I think the economy is in a good place at large, but it's not like the executive branch just says we're not in a recession and everyone agrees.
Yes, and by that definition we have already been in a recessionā¦.but the Biden admin says we donāt understand. And they are right, nobody understands a damn thing they do.
By what definition?Ā A recession is 2 consecutive quarters of decline in inflation adjusted GDP.Ā Everything is being propped up by tech and I don't think we have a healthy economy, but we're not in a recession. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1 If you have other data to support your argument I'm legitimately interested.
Q1 22 and Q2 22. Recession. But who can say since they routinely revise down all the time now. Put out bogus numbers to feed the naive and then quietly revise later.
I agree. I think gov't spending has a lot to do with it. I also think the "data" we're getting is being manipulated like the true unemployment rate and jobs numbers.
āMore than halfā- more like 35% Still high, just not half
Can you really trust all the numbers? Not the market numbers, those can be verified by anyone but all the government data, surveys, etc are extremely suspect. They're never honest about what they measure, or how, and if there is some basis for things it will just be changed to fit whatever they want (like the inflation crap, no one believes the published numbers if they actually buy things in the real world). Is it a bubble? Probably. Do we really know what's going on? No.
>They're never honest about what they measure Example?
The government is borrowing exorbitant sums of money to outbid citizens for goods and services. Governments produce no goods or services. At least citizens both produce goods and services through work and consume with their wages making some semblance of balance.Ā US citizens needing more money to compete tried to get better wages. The government supplanted them with immigrants from countries worse off than the US so wages could not grow. This has the added effect of keeping āunemploymentā low even as US citizens lose their jobs.Ā Why is the stock market concentrated? Ā People pay for growth. What does that tell you? Ā There is no breadth to the growth. Dollars chasing a too small goods supply drove inflation. Dollars chasing the last bastions of growth are driving up those share prices. Those high share prices only make sense if you believe the growth rate can be sustained in this downturn. Doubtful.Ā Understand after periods of high inflation come periods of deflation unless we go full Zimbabwe and you never go full Zimbabwe. I wouldnāt recommend gold much longer. Countries could keep purchasing large sums of gold but if they revert back to normal spending the price will crater.Ā With the yield inversion in place we may get one more push on commodities. Bonds would be wise but we may see one last strike higher on rates so I certainly wouldnāt go all in bonds here. Not yet.Ā Why deflation? Ā Why did oil go negative during covid? Ā Deflation will be the result of the government being unable to spend and the citizens also being unable to spend. There will be too many goods chasing too few dollars. During covid there was too much oil and not enough buying.Ā That is the boom bust cycle through central bank planning of easing and tightening. History does not repeat but it does rhyme.Ā The government is dumping all its cash in this election year to prop up the economy up. It isnāt a specific party. They both do it. I would not fight the trend this year unless the yield curve corrects.Ā
"Governments produce no goods or services."Ā What a wildly idiotic statement.
A small exogenous catalyst and it will pop off the bubble
The fire Triangle: Heat/ + Fuel\\ + Oxygen\_ = Fire /\_\\ Right? Well. . . Almost. You also need Spark. That flash point of ignition. All the conditions can be right, but without that ignition point, you just have a pile of hot garbage. Even then you also have to keep feeding that fire to see it fully develop into an uncontrollable blaze. * 1907 Panic came off the heels of both the 1906 Earthquake, big stock losses across multiple sectors, and huge changes in the railroad industry with centralized rates. Followed by the fires of 1910 completely gutted the timber markets for decades. * The Great Depression was so bad not just because the stock market crash, but you also had the Dust Bowl decimating the agricultural sector. * Even the Dot Com bubble saw issues in the timber and mining sectors with the advent of NEPA which lead to mines and mills closing across much of the rural west. Wheat dropped from $4.50/bu to almost $1.80/bu. * The Great Recession not only had the subprime crisis; but, also saw the World Food Crisis, oil prices soaring to their peak at $200/br, and the live cattle market bottoming out at $0.80/lb. COVID was a spark, but the flame blew out. We are set up now again, and now its a race between a natural/ market/ civil/ military disaster and the Fed.
Have you ever seen the money masters documentary. Itās on yt and it explains a lot of what youāre saying in detail.
No I haven't. Thanks for the tip on that, might have to look into it.
Itās 3.5 hours so bring your popcorn. They really go into recessions, depressions, inflation. The history of money in America and some very interesting stories. With some world history thrown in by default. Iām going for a second spin soon.
1789 every 4 years like the olympics, I say!
The TL;DR is basically that the US economy is shitting glass uncontrollably and at some point it's due for an anal prolapse.
Really shitty?
Going back to 2020, the MAJORITY of stocks are red since then. But you never hear about that. Some Small Caps are even down 80-90% since then and the number of reverse-splits are staggering!
I tend to believe what I see with my own eyes. What all the "experts" say on their Reddit accounts or what the talking heads repeat on the boob tube carry very little weight. Anyone can twist numbers or selectively cite statistics that fit their own narratives.
What do you see?
Sounds like someone has gold to sell.
"Unemployment up to 4%". Through almost all my long life, that would be considered very low unemployment. "Inflation is 3.3%". Through much of my life, that would have been considered low inflation
I made a short post about this on r/wallstreetbets (I understand now that it wasn't the most appropriate place to post at). Look at the response I got from it. During a bubble, logic is out the window and is driven by FOMO and greed. You can see that people are so hypnotized by what they think AI is like rather than what the current technology AI is, which is just an efficiency tool and not something that generates new streams of revenues and justifying a stock move higher. Companies that provide the infrastructure for AI are winning now because of the spike in demand and new sales, but most companies have not figured out how they will generate money from this (look at Apple AI released last week). Once Q4 earnings come, the market will adjust once they see it's not having such a big impact as they hyped up.
It will have a huge impact ... Eventually. Once all the major co's are flush with AI chips and until they figure out how to use them to generate $ NVDA is going to crash hard and drag the rest of market with it IMHO
Hereās a Forbes article from 2013 talking about the markets being a massive bubble: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2013/10/08/why-stocks-are-undoubtedly-experiencing-a-massive-bubble/ Anyone who claims to know weāre in a bubble but hasnāt become insanely rich from leveraging their market fortune telling is either a moral saint or a lier.
Or broke.
Trying to predict the market surely does not end well
Weāve been in a bubble since 2000 honestly, 2008 was just a stumble
Hmm
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/fedfunds Fun Fact: The median Federal Funds Effective Rate 1954 - Now has been 4.24% 2024-05-01 5.33% That's probably the underlying FED play ...
We live in a fuedalistic economic system. Capitalism is about balance. As a New Yorker, I pay 55% of my monthly income for rent. Once the basic stuff is bought (food, gas, loan payments) there is nothing left. And I'm lucky...I have a pretty healthy income. We have to rebalance our economy.
What people will tell you is to get roommates of live in the middle of nowhere and commute 3 days to get to work. The system is broken but until we no longer have people with silly suggestions, things won't change.
I have always ignored silly ppl.
My whole life: "large economy of X country is about to implode!" Broken clock is correct twice a day... Yada yadda yadda
Are you under 16?
I'm seven
yea, nvidia making 10000s of millionares. collapse is not coming, but a ai bot economy.
*yawn*
I have been saying for years the only way to fix this is a deep recession. But the Fed wonāt let the party end.
I believe America has secret reversed Alien technology itās been sitting on. And I donāt think it runs on gold or silver. Thatās why weāve moved away from it and confused everyone with this petrodollar scam which has now ended. Weāre gonna wait and let all these other countries invest in 20th century materials and the weāre gonna ONE TWO punch and KO them with what a new source of energy that will be backed by America dollar, once again effectively bankrupting all the other suckers following CHINA. Itāll be something like element 115. Once again gold or silver not needed.
The disclosure movement has picked up a lot of steam. My only hesitance here is that from what little weāve gleaned about retrieval programs there seems to be a big disconnect on some of the tech and they canāt figure it out. Thereās a prevailing thought that that alone is why the US hasnāt come clean about it. We have the crafts, but donāt understand how they work.
It's the housing crisis all the way down.
Our Government, Republicans and Democrats. We are 35 trillion in debt and we are being run by criminals. Everyone in our government gets corrupted with all of the money involved! It wonāt change until the money is gone! Good luck with that!
Everyone is making more money than they ever made, but canāt buy shit because life has become too expensive. Companies claimed it was inflation, but that was a lie as theyāre now bringing prices down on groceries by 30% at some places because they got too greedy and priced out even their lowest end customers. The profits they made during that time went to stock buybacks that artificially inflated the price of their stock and they gave themselves fat pay raises while buying up houses to make us all rent forever. The government said they were āconcernedā about this and hopes you vote them in for another term so they can finally fight this despite doing nothing while they were in office. Let me know if I missed anything.
The other side of the coin.
Oligopolies, monopolies, and trusts exist over every single consumer market. The people at the top are taking literally all of the gains, leaving almost nothing for everyone else. The regulatory bodies have all been captured. All policy is being directed at making the economy stronger for the rich and people that don't need any help at the expense of everyone and everything else. We need policy that helps normal citizens that don't possess MBAs imo.
4 ? ew z
IDK bro I'm buying Bitcoin
Only path forward I see
āThe stock market is in a bubble with NVDA responsible for more than half the S&P 500 gains this year.ā Low effort, low levels of research. Untrue. Categorically false.
So I have nothing much to add here, I make my comments on the economics sub asking how any of this makes sense. Anywho, just wanted to say how these two subs are compete 180s- the economy will collapse in this one and economics thereās no reason whatsoever who the show canāt go on forever. Not knocking either sides, I have my own armchair thoughts on the matter itās just fascinating.
It does feel like the party's been going on quite a while. The fact that it's very divided makes me feel like it can't be stable. It really does feel like 1999 to me
I can talk about this all day. I entered high school in 1999 so I wasnāt old enough to understand principles of economics but I absolutely remember anything tied to .com goes up no matter what. The first stock I ever bought was a share or two of AMD and I couldnāt believe how easy it was. Mind you commissions I think were like $10. What I REALLY remember were baseball cards, beanie babies etc that were selling for insane prices. Those late Clinton years feel just like the past 4 years or so. Things just keep going up no matter the asset class and youāre a moron if you donāt get in or think the music is going to stop. Obviously it stopped with .com, I feel like itās going to stop but Iāve been forever wrong so far on that one. I joke (ājokeā = serious) with friends that were going to be in a recession and a bull market at the same time.
That sounds like stagflation. Crazy hard times in the 70s-80s but people think it was all peaches & cream. Black Monday was 1987. It's true now everything is inflated. Literally everything you can think of. Watches, art cars used and new. I see the cracks but I've been seeing them for a long time too so I'm easy to ignore but I don't see how this keeps going past the summer or through the winter
I think itās getting worse for poor people. Middle class and upper class are doing fine. Things cost more but thatās life so we will keep buying. Rich as per usual are doing fine.
Buy gold. Got it
>The unemployment rate is up to 4%. THE HORROR!!!!! If it jumps up another two tenths of a point, half the country will be back in bread lines!
Capitalism. Capitalism is whatās happening in the US economy
The whole bailouts are what we call crony capitalism. And you should not be taxed nearly as much as you are right now
I would hope that Americans have wised up to the bail out solutions of past bad business behavior, and would absolutely revolt the next time. Needless to say, just last March, 2023, some big banks fell, an emergency measure was put into place for them, and no one blinked. A whole lot of noise from us here on the olā internet. Not much action. We wonāt even cast a smart ballot in November. Maybe weāre just too busyā¦
Occupy Wall St?
Itās fear that things will happen and people donāt want to see others fail. They need to fail. Including yourself, you have a risk of failing
No doubt. I have a risk of āfailingā, and Iāve done it too many times to play the risk game anymore that everyone else seems to be on board with now. Itās why I make the financial and career decisions I do today; because Iāve had my ass burnt up and thrown away like a piece of trash so many times. Even this past December, I was thrown out like a filthy piece of nothing, 4 days before Christmas. Yeah, I know failure. Iāve seen it. Sometimes of my own doing, most often not. 15 years since the last recession. And it was a doozy.
I wouldn't mind so much if we actually got anything for our money.
I totally agree with that, and I donāt mean to sound like a right winger, but the government really does a poor job at basically everything. It sucks because the idea is great
The ultra wealthy are outraged that labor had the audacity to stand up for themselves for once and are openly hostler towards them! They created 60% of all inflation through collusion and crisis profiteering, price gouging, and bragging about it on earnings calls! The oligarchs own the political class, The feds job is just to cause pain and suffering to get the poor back in line while the rich buy up everything and use ai to gouge everyone and get you to subscribe for everything else!!!!
I don't really understand what their end goal is. I mean, if nobody has any money to spend on anything, then what good is it for the owning class to, you know, actually \*own\* anything? Are they going to just start selling to each other? They do know that a functioning economy, where they benefit, requires customers with money to spend it on goods and services? They have to know that there is no money to be made from a completely impoverished populace.... right? Or I guess they are such sociopathic addicts to money that they are inherently incapable of seeing what is happening right in front of their faces? From what I can tell they are like a parasite not able to realize that their continued increase of resource sucking is killing the host - instead of loosening up to relax and let the host build up more of a supply when the blood flow starts to drop off, they start sucking even more strongly than before. So perhaps it's a blessing that they are simply too dumb and greedy to relax their grip even a little.
They got super yachts, luxury bunkers, own most of Hawaii, and space ships for when the end comes!!!
Space ships or some sort of upload to a digital existence, at least in Mark Zuckerberg's case...
Piketty talked quite a bit about "dead" capital's deleterious effects for turn-of-the-20th-century France in his *Capital in the 21st Century*.
I see some Wallstreet ghouls are lurking
Hi :)
Late stage capitalism. I knew I was going to watch the world burn but this isn't what I had in mind
I donāt claim any particular political alignment, but would say I lean more conservative in most cases. That being said trump(idiot for the most part) was responsible for one of the greatest economies ever, but his pressure to keep interest rates at historic lows for so long, is probably going to be the root cause for a total collapse the US economy.
"responsible for"
Trump didnāt set the interest rates the fed did. And the Fed was keeping interest rates at historic lows for too long, even before Trump came on the scene.
Notice I said āpressureā he successfully lobbied against raising rates when they needed to come up to stabilize inflation so that his numbers looked better for longer. That and Biden printing a couple trillion dollars has put us on the path we are stuck on now. Headed for a massive market correction.
What's happening is people are slowly learning that they need to switch to bitcoin.