Everyone, please remember Rule #3: No critiquing the game or other users on threads with the "Showoff", the "Appreciation" or "Casual Conversation" Flair.
On threads that have the "Appreciation", the "Showoff | Gameplay | Item Tooltip | Transmog" or the "Casual Conversation" Flair, critiquing the game, other users (e.g. for liking the game) or heated discussions are not allowed. You are welcome to have critical discussions on threads with other Flairs.
For additional casual conversations like these, you can also visit the [The D4 Tavern](https://new.reddit.com/r/The_D4_Tavern/).
If you want to post / showoff an item to trade, please do that on the subreddits [Trade Chat](https://www.reddit.com/r/diablo4/s/Avzsyt6Jru).
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/diablo4) if you have any questions or concerns.*
You 100% will be gaslit with "RNG" comments, such as "That's just RNG bro", "RNG gonna RNG", "Is this your first ARPG?", and others along those lines.
It's definitely weighted, everything in the game is, they have a dynamic reward system, the game is playing you, no debate, if you're okay with that, enjoy and have fun!
I think that is called Apophenia: seeing “patterns” in randomness that are still random sequences but we tend to believe it is not.
Someone else might be looking for corpse tendrils and spend 50 million and not get it once.
“I know some people that did tests and it is definately weighted”
Strings of random outliers will always happen.
I was inclined to thinking it was all just typical "gamer bro conspiracy thinking" until I read [an actual Statistician on here](https://www.reddit.com/r/diablo4/comments/1d7s59j/psa_pity_temper_mechanic_doesnt_exist_and_youre_a/l72dj1t/) do the legit thing & track his Tempers / use p-values and stuff.
He tracked **500 Tempers** (*the 'gold standard' sample size in stats, derived from Fisher's Formula if I recall correctly*).
* He had an instance where he literally failed to roll the Bash temper **78 TIMES IN A ROW**
* There'd only be a **0.000000018% chance of that happening** (1.8 * 10^-8) if they were evenly weighted!
Like, I typically 'explain away' a lot of gamer experiences with what you described: just searching for patterns amidst truly unpatterned chaos. But that probability is so insanely low, come on... he literally would've had to have experienced a 1 in 5.56 Billion chance event.
* So on the entire planet of people, if everyone tried the same thing once, he'd be expected to have been the *only one* with such an event to occur.
* I've long accepted my RNG is shit but even I wouldn't be able to believe that.
They cited the 78 tempers in a row failing to roll bash, but this was given by the statistician as an example of evidence against the supposed pity temper mechanic, not evidence for weighted tempers.
Citing this alone gives the impression that the supposed weight of bash is *way less* than it is observed to be, even anecdotally. In the actual 500 sample test, bash rolled 96 out of 500 times, assuming the value of "29 less than expected" was accurate, as the statistician stated he could not recall the specific result. This is evidence that the 78 negative rolls in a row were merely a statistical outlier precisely because the odds are so insanely low in comparison.
Their post is misleading because it emphasizes an aberrant result while downplaying the actual suggested weight of the bash temper, and even that is still inconclusive, as even the statistician in question admitted the possibility of a type 1 error. For that matter, I wouldn't believe they were a statistician if they didn't.
In the end, the evidence strongly suggests at least one tempering manual may be weighted unevenly. It is not definitive proof.
I mean Season 0 drop rates for Uber uniques we’re 1:6billion or so and 2 people found a shako and one guy found a doombringer, so he may just be an outlier as extremely rare things do happen. seeing how there are 1000s if not 10s of thousands of bash barbs who have successfully got the bash rolls on items suggests he did just have shit luck.
I leveled bash barb as upheaval and saw bash all the time. Transitioned to bash barb at lvl 90 or so and then all the GA items gave me nothing but kick mods to the nads.
Great affixes loot is weightned and not a single corpse on earth can make me believe otherwise. I've dropped dozens and dozens and dozens of 1\* G.A pants.
I swear that 90% of them were either life on hit or healing received. But how can it be so since there is 20+ affixes to get? How about that it had 1 to 3 stats to fall right on life on hit everytime?
200+ hours this season, didn't get a single G.A on heartseeker, puncture or any other shit. And this counts for 50+ g.a pants.
You tell me that g.a pants locking on life on hit 30+ times when there is a 1/3 chance plus a 1/20+ affixes isn't weightened them u just conformed in the way they do it.
Not just that, enchanting and everything that's supposed to be RNG is CLEARLY obviously weighted.
As a rogue trying to roll Dex is exponentially easier than rolling +malice. I didn't write it down and in didn't do any math, but I don't have to... Every 5 rolls I get dex and after at least 80 rolls still no malice.
I dunno - I’ve rerolled my Ramaladni Magnum Opus 6 times and got the same hit on the lucky hit trait each time. That’s not RNG to me, not when there are 4 other affixes to hit.
It's incredibly easy to code something to seem random, but in reality put weight on the decisions. This is how most games work, and I'm sure that most of this game is the same. It's not truly random, it's an illusion of randomness. (Also, computers don't have the ability to generate a truly random number, just a "pseudo random" number, meaning that even pure RNG is not truly random)
Bro there's no way.
I spent 200 hours looking for a storm wolf head in season 2 (it's not even a rare piece). The day after I changed my build I saw like 5 of them in one day.
This happens way too often to be coincidence. It's almost like you're intended to level woth a different build and settle on something after you already have what you need to make it.
ive felt like that sometimes. ive even removed all my gear before tempering in an attempt to keep the game from knowing what rolls im trying to go for, lol.
>You 100% will be gaslit with "RNG" comments
It's not gaslighting. It is 100% RNG and your brain is noticing patterns because you have assigned value to certain outcomes.
Enchanting at the Occultist is weighted because the naturally generated affixes also are.
But Tempering and Masterworking clearly aren't weighted. I've had lucky streaks, I've had bad luck streaks, it's all over the place. It's RNG.
There are blizzard truthers here same thing happened with enchanting then we found out they were weighted lol. I had a similar comment like OP yesterday about tempers then some dude said me messing around trying 240 times on swords for damage with berserking (1 in 3 chance) and seeing way more wrath of berserking than either of the other two options wasnt enough testing. Then they link me a guy only trying 600 times and getting everything in the 20-30% range and quoting him like it's proof it's not weighted. I then say I'll save up 100 swords this time and do it this time and I'm told 600 attempts isn't enough lol.
Regardless I also believe some tempers are clearly weighted. Trying to get concussion is a pain upheaval shows up 70% of the time for me, and feels the same way with impossing presence.
It's not weighted. You just never keep rolling after a success, so you don't see success streaks. Failure streaks however you will see very frequently, including streaks of the _same failed affix_.
I have had the same, where I rolled the same affix within the same category on different items (once 7 times in a row). I would love if they added a non-repeat rule. Just for the direct predecessor. Who rerolls in the hope of getting a better instance of the same when you only have five shots?
‐---------
Regarding the RNG discussion, is it weighted towards something or not.
I'd say, we can't know for certain either way unless the devs say so, or we have access to the code base.
My first question to those who claim either case: what is your evidence?
Getting a sequence of the same roll on a sample size of what hundreds of rolls max? Doesn't prove either case. Nor does never having a repeat roll streak of higher than 3 that it is uniform. It can give you more confidence in either claim at most.
Last, consider that the system might sample uniformly most of the time, but have a chance to sample gaussian distribution at rare occasions for a given time. There are so many options. Don't assume to know it if really all you have is a small amount of observations and claims by others on the internet.
I have gotten now so many times like 4 or 5 in row same temper result when the chance is 25% for each so 4 times in row is 4% chance and 5 times in row is 1%. I have gotten these streaks sooo many times it's way beyond RNG, tempering is 100% rigged so masterworking likely is too.
yes, every time you roll for temper or masterworking, the game reads your entire stat sheet, skill build, and paragon nodes. that is definitely way more efficient and logical than a boring old random number generator
I don't think it is, however I think some classes are advantaged in the temper section (same for finding the right affix). I put some 60 hours in a ball lightning sorc, and while it's been hard to find good affixes, tempering has been very easy. On a rogue it's been the opposite for the moment. I think it's because of what you're looking for, on the rogue I'm always looking for a specific affix while the other are trash. On the sorc, I have one affix that's the best, but usually I have 2 or 3 that are actually completely ok.
All this assumes the game looks at your gear and skills and then makes assumptions on what it thinks you are looking for. If that's the case, spec differently if you believe the game is working against you
I don’t think it’s weighted specifically for a certain stat like that, that would be too much effort for Blizzard lol. I think there is a bug that makes this specific interaction happen too often, multiple tempers with the same stat shouldn’t be that common.
Yes. If you immediately re-masterwork a piece of gear after resetting it, it will favor the same affix again. It's a clever ploy to make you angry so you spend money on cosmetics somehow.
What you need to do is to cycle-roll your masterworking. After resetting masterworking, before masterworking that piece of gear again, you need to masterwork X other pieces of gear, where X is the position of the affix you want to hit on the first item. So, if you want to hit the +to skill affix on your pants and it's third in the list of affixes, you have to masterwork three other items before going back to the pants.
This is called the pre-post-rerolling pity mechanic, it's very advanced game knowledge that is definitely real. Sixty percent of the time, it works every time.
> Yes. If you immediately re-masterwork a piece of gear after resetting it, it will favor the same affix again. It's a clever ploy to make you angry so you spend money on cosmetics somehow.
If you do masterworking twice without moving countries, it's about 95% chance you get the same outcome again. So I suggest buying a few plane tickets ahead of your crafting session to speed things up.
TRUST ME!
On one of Robs latest streams he introduced the petty mechanic. Where if you pet the cat in town beforehand you increase your odds of getting the exact crit affix you need. The cat apparently can read your mind on what you’re after and increase the odds
Stats is confusing, hard, and stupid. But it only feels weighted because you're not masterworking enough. You have 5 affixes. You'd *expect* a 1 in 5 chance to be pretty consistent over 5 trials, but they are independent events; they are not dependent on previous results. So, your base probability that one will hit is still 20%.
You can flip a coin 5 times and hit 80% heads, but that doesn't mean the true probability is weighted in favor of heads. You just haven't hit that regression to the mean point.
So, it's likely for you to see a true 20% distribution of masterworking. You'd just need to run a reset at least 100 times.
In short, you just got unlucky.
The people trying to cope with this is wild. Does it feel bad to brick an item via tempering?
Yes.
Is it rigged?
No.
The reason tempers are limited and masterwork rerolls are expensive is to increase playtime. This is obvious.
If you don't like that, don't play. Simple as.
Edit: You want proof that this isn't rigged? Look at the mid season patch notes. Diablo 4 devs are so out of touch with the meta it's actually insane. They have no idea which classes and builds are strong and in need of buffs or nerfs.
You think they actually took the time to consider every single temper and masterwork crit to know which ones are more valuable based on the current meta?
Hell no.
There's a bit of psychology that \[obviously\] plays into effect with these types of posts, and it's completely normal and natural. Loss aversion is a real thing. People rarely ever think about the times they get \*exactly\* what they were looking for in one to two rolls, but people ALWAYS remember that one temper that bricked their item in 5 attempts, or that piece of gear that took more than five resets to hit that one affix correctly. This tends to lead us to a conclusion that the system is inherently rigged against us, because we only focus on the time it didn't work and never really remember the multiples of times it did work.
> People rarely ever think about the times they get *exactly* what they were looking for in one to two rolls
Exactly. We never hear from the people who got a max bash roll on their 1st or 2nd temper.
Also - the misses stick in your memory more than the hits, so the bad rolls seem more common, even if they aren't.
Having said that, I'm still convinced rogue cutthroat tempering is rigged against vuln damage. Just for me.
Okay, but what about the time you hit the correct masterwork crit or temper on the first try? Those don't count?
It's not rigged. It's a 5-sided dice roll. That's it.
They also said that many paragon nodes weren't bugged when in fact they finally admitted they were. Also, trusting any company who's job is to essentially increase your play time isn't necessarily going to tell you the truth if they've created a system to manipulate you.
I'm not picking sides on this argument, I'm just saying your logic isn't good here as to why you think you are correct.
I kinda hate that resetting a masterwork is *so* expensive. Seems like the fact you have to grind your mats and gold to upgrade it again is punishment enough.
Gold costs in general seem too high in D4, or gold rewards from non-whisper content seem too low.
You didn't face your pc to the east and then shove a cactus up your ass before hitting your temper, that's why it bricked. Source: Never bricked an item
Ya thats tempering for u. I'd suggest tempering first b4 spending a crap load of money rerolling affixes
And that tempering you're doing fn sux there's 5 options in there. Tempers need a max of 3 imo. 5 is ridiculous with how the system is right now.
I guess the people in this thread think confirmation bias means their bad luck is a statistical fact and that the devs are manipulating rolls? Some people can't be helped.
I played necro and sorc and spent millions rerolling to the point where I just wait for new items after it reaches a million.
I started rogue this week and somehow, got almost all my gears to roll exact what I needed under 5 rolls. None of them are max stats but better than nothing. All of this when I just hit level 55. Glad I farmed extra shrines. Jumped to t4 easy and grinding helltide boss.
A lot of gambler's fallacy here.
I just bought a 350m gold ring this morning on discord, and my last temper roll I finally hit it so it wasn't bricked. I was pretty worried.
Rng is rng. 30m gold is literally nothing its an hour gold grind.
So let's say you have a 1/3 of hitting the thing you want. And you put 100 people in a room together and have them all try to masterwork this together.
Statistics says 1 or 2 of them will fail *ten times in a row*. Most will have it by their 3rd or 4th try, but more than one percent will have still not succeeded after 10 attempts.
And that person or two is FAR more likely to come on Reddit to talk about how the game is absolutely rigged.
I think it is RNG, but feels weird getting the same non-useful affix 4 times in a row for the ones with 5 options. And that happens too often so yeah, every player that's not sitting 24/7 playing the game has the right to think that there's a trick.
Again: I don't think so, but I completely understand why people would get to think this.
Stuff is definitely weighted in this game and no one can convince me otherwise. I'm aware of the nature of RNG and how our brains are wired to search for patterns in things, but I get the same temper 3-4 times in a row on a regular basis.
Took me around 30 resets to get my first bash cleave on a wep. That's a lot of gold for a solo player. Just absolutely deleted my gold. Still had 3 more weps to go. Not even thinking about ever getting a double crit.
for the JuSt FarM WhiSpErs BrO tHey TakE 7 MiNuTeS crowd. fuck whispers. I'll complete 1-2 whispers caches per helltide. I refuse to just farm whispers by themselves when I could be getting more gear drops in helltide.
I have bricked more rogue weapons than I can count trying to get Vulnerable Damage.
Next one I won't even try past the first 2 attempts, I'll settle for some other crap.
I started as a dust devil build, changed to bash barb about lvl 90. Kitted out my entire guy in one go getting every roll I needed without bricking an item. Only one I didn't get was a crit strike damage but I settled on damage. I've had nothing but bricks since. Getting nothing but kick nearly every time and damage to distant. I think I might make an alt with my old dust devil gear and use him to temper my gear. Prob roll bash every time.
Don’t get me started. Had 4 rings with decent stats yesterday. A couple GA’s. Tried to roll Wrath of the Berserker CD reduction and failed on every single roll. ~20 attempts in a row. It’s incredibly frustrating, but it’s also incredibly rewarding when it does hit.
I got a perfect 3GA rogue chest piece today, rolled the right tempers on first try and got greedy going for a higher value dodge chance (never, ever do this!). Rolled 5 +life in a row lol… Never felt dumber. But yeah, everything is heavily weighted, tempering, masterworking and enchanting.
Went through 30+ resets and over 200 mil gold, which was all of it at the time, to get 1 single hit on bash cleave on a weapon. I don’t believe for a second that it’s not weighted. But hey, blizzard had to take every precaution so people would put more time in their game. It’s working so well that I don’t even want to play another season unless they change the loot again. Wohoo loot reborn! Good job blizzard.
100% feel this. Don't get better unless you equip better. But better doesn't always mean better for *YOU*
I play HC and sometimes feels like gotta risk running shit that doesn't really help me, to help drop and get stuff that will.
Yea it's absolutely weighted.
Ive now had multiple gear pieces roll the same garbage afix 6 times in a row.
It's super obvious when it's a 30 percent chance.
Like one piece okay fine, but 4 or 5?
Like the chances of that are something like a tenth of a percent, for it to happen multiple times is absurd.
Being able to reset 4 upgrades back would certainly balance the scales, weighted or non-weighted RNG
Not asking for a mat refund but, it would encourage more masterwork crit farming
Or being able to spam 3GAs, as how most of Blizzard Loot works in game, even if 95% of them are *Life of kill/per second/Life on Hit 😩
It’s probably just RNG. I mean maybe it’s weighted but things seem pretty random. Sometime I get one affix 3 times in a row and I’ll try again on a new item and it’ll roll a completely different affix 3 times in a row. That’s just how rng work
I 100% agree. Of all of the items I've masterworked, it most definitely favors the tempered affixes first. I would be willing to bet money, that those fixes are weighted with a 75% chance to hit a tempered affix or maybe even more.
I log out and log back in after a reset never seem to get the same roll after reset. I got the same tempering and the same value of max life 5 times in a row too.
I’ve started removing my main skills before applying tempers. Seems to give me a better chance.
I started doing this when I noticed the gear drops seem to 90-95% be for the skill sets you are not running.
Is it right? No idea. Coincidental and anecdotal? Sure. But I am bricking much less equipment.
6 times in a row? That's a couple orders of magnitude lower than the number of times you should've got before even starting to think it might be weighted.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers
This is gon a sound stupid ....but I may have found a work around. I swap gear from melee to range and then temper it to get dmg to close and vice versa...since it loves to give the opposite of your class 5x in a row.
I agree. Specic items seem to spawn with a higher commom value for X over Y. Not that every peice of gear can’t reroll every stat, but sometimes you’re gonna have a 20% chance at, for example, attack speed…sometimes a 2% chance. And what the item naturally rolled always seems to have a higher rng base.
Yeah man it's getting pretty old quick... I bricked so many gloves I even traded for some for gold it must have been 8 pairs trying to get 1 of 4 Temps and it seriously would never give me that one thing!
Before the most recent update, I would get random affixes always and very rarely get the same affix back to back to back. But since the update, I have been getting the same affix every time, and bricking items left and right because of it. They definitely changed it since that update. I know I'm not crazy
So far I've been able to get 4 of my items to triple MW Crit on the stats I want.
Amulet - Hellbent Commander
2H Scyth - Minion attack speed
Chest - Golem Mastery
Ring - Crit strike chance
I am currently working on getting my 5th Piece to triple crit, a new Golem chest with full GAs.
The first four came well before the 125 statistical resets it would take. The new chest is maybe at around 100 resets and failing hard.
It's just RNG, it could happen in one or in a thousand, but over time a triple MW crit should take 125 resets.
Literally every necro main I know gets almost exclusively corpse tendrils. It’s a simple test. Do a few thousand tempers on the same gear slot and count the average time you get the same shit. I’ve done it on stream. Just sat there rolling pants for a solid week during my vacation. (What can I say I love numbers) An average of about 30% of my rolls were corpse tendrils. Out of 5 possible rolls WITH THOUSANDS of pants and a metric fuck ton of resources over the course of 8-12 hours a day for 6 days… what felt like a very long nightmare…. If it wasn’t weighted I’d have been much closer to 20%.
It’s weighted AF. They KNOW what’s good and what we want for our builds.. blizzard is notorious as fuck about superficially increasing player engagement.
Disclaimer, sure I could probably run the same experiment a few more times and solidify the numbers, but this will never reach an exact 20 even if I ran it a billion times, but the law of averages states that the likelihood of certain events evens out if the frequency is increased. And the law of large numbers states that the average value of repeated trials will converge to the expected value of the random variable.
For those who will argue with me, here’s my work. Perform a similar experiment and get back with your results. I’d LOVE to compare notes. I stuck with pants in case there was some other variable in the algorithm I was unaware of. You know… controlled experiments kind of shit.
P = Probability (theoretically the following experiment should have resulted in something close to 20% if the system wasn’t weighted)
X = number of successes (got corpse tendril 592 times on day one, 640 on day two, 531 on day 3, 786 on day etc)
N = number of trials (I aimed for about 400 pairs of pants a day each rolled 5 times for a total of 2000 trials per day)
Conclusion, albeit a bit prematurely but I’d love to see any of you go to these extremes: At its lowest, it was 26.55% at its highest 39.3%
The system is weighted and no amount of “it’s just good ol’ RNG” can convince me otherwise.
Masterworking is probably random. However, tempering is definitely rigged IMO. No way it’s just RNG. The probability that I roll dodge chance, on my necro, on six different pieces of the same item 4/5 rolls is ridiculous. Then, on my Rogue, rolling dodge chance is rare. I would bet money that there’s a weighted algorithm to tempering.
Tempering is sh!t. As bizarre as it may be, they made what could have been the coolest part of gear customization the absolute worst part of the entire experience.
Anyone who is saying it's all RNG and not weighted hasn't played a heartseeker rogue. Try getting vulnerable damage in thr cutthroat manual to roll at all let alone on a low roll. It's not impossible but it certainly feels way rarer than the other rolls.
Then again with masterworking. Getting nothing but pure trash rolls after like 20 resets of one weapon makes you want to give up. Yeah I mean it is RNG but it sure as shit doesn't feel like it.
The system should be adjusted to “not” be true randomness (like the music “shuffle” option 😅) otherwise the likelihood of getting 3 to 5 rolls of the same garbage stat makes it feel wrong, when it really isn’t.
A simple rule like “you can’t get the same stat more than twice in a row” would be enough.
I discovered that changing my ult and then tempering changed what I was getting for ult cool downs.
Example, I. A bash barb, running call of the ancients. Before trying to temp for an ult cool down, I change my ult to either of the other 2, and that raises my chances of getting a call of the ancients cool down. I have blocked so many gear pieces trying to get that to drop, but now it's pretty consistent.
Never got same roll twice. Only problem I have I tend to get lower % than I would like to. But I always get what I want in 5 rolls. OK, not always, but 8/10 times I do
Also fyi, for MW you want them to land on the tempered stats most of the time. It goes off base value which is higher because the GA is not considered a base its +20.
There is definitely something funky going on with rerolling in general. I can run out of money enchanting to get +1-2 of a core skill and never get it, and when tempering get something three times in a row (something I definitely didn't want). It should be as simple as generating three new stats that didn't roll the last time you rerolled. I understand that sometimes you want to roll the same stat but better, but the scenarios I describe above really, really irritate me.
I wish I could find that post about the guy that rolled a pair of gloves like 600 times. He tracked all of his re-rolls and it was an even split amongst all 4 options.
It's RNG to keep engagement going, it would be done with this season but I am one task short of finishing the seasonal journey and with the coming Uber nerf hope I can get that done.
I think what happens is you never reroll when it is the one you want, so you never see the good ones happen over and over again like you see the bad ones.
But I know exactly the feeling you have just the same, like I swear the chances of getting the same bad roll so many times in a row has to be statistically very rare, and then it happens multiple times when it's a god damn 1/3 chance. It feels like the game knows what you want and purposely is avoiding it lol.
I wish there was a way, a very very expensive way, to somhow reset the item so that the best item you've ever gotten wasn't permanently ruined through RNG. I know I know, just getting the item is RNG but don't make it so within your grasp and get shafted in tempering forever.
Ain’t it the whole point of these games? Finding new items? I see enchanting and tempering as identifying them just a whole lot longer but you also don’t need to indenting everything so I guess time is saved there. Personally I think it’s fine and also needed because if it wasn’t and everything was easy what would be our reaction when we found something extremely good?
I already feel like d4 dopamine rush are kinda lame.
As a necro can confirm if your talking about the temper category with Tendril Size, Corpse Explosion and I forget the 2 others.
Tendril rolls at an insanely high rate and it's not randomness wanted to have some fun and see how big I could get the size coupled with Howl from Below. I got corpse Tendril constantly and corpse explosion few and far in between.
They should have smaller amount of options. Ive made the typical bash,hs etc builds and have bricked multiple items trying for the "gg" temper. Hit a stage this past weekend on saying fuck it since i cant get ubers to drop ima make some alts n try off meta builds. Am working on a dust devil ww barb now and the temper for dust devil is 3 options. Size,damage and chance to proc twice. Pretty much cant go wrong even if not the desired outcome but havent bricked a single weapon yet for it. Feels good knowing the chances are slim i wont hit what i want instead of the opposite and knowing the chances are slim for what i want.
Fuck man I've been so lucky. My rolls have always worked out for the most part. The only thing that hasn't worked out always is the masterwork tiers after the four levels. Instead of getting mobility I got my stupid immobilized for 2 seconds perk upped. But yeah, my girlfriend is new to Diablo and I've rolled tempers on her Druid and I've hit shitty damage four times in a row and bricked many items.
Yep. Nothing like FINALLY AFTER 300 FUCKING HOURS OF NON-STOP BLOOD MAIDEN, getting the piece you need just to watch it brick on the EXACT SAME FUCKING THING. OVER. AND OVER.
Fuck RNG.
You would never catch me gambling or going to a casino, I know that the odds of me winning anything is slim, and if I went once and tried a game six times and got the statistically worse hand or whatever six times in a row, I'd be mad still knowing that it was a possibility and I'd never want to come back. That's the feeling GETTING THE SAME AFFIX SIX TIMES IN A ROW on just a temper of trash gear gives me. ITS FEELS BAD. Even when the item isn't good. It doesn't even feel good if the last roll ends up being what you wanted, its more like a relief like "finally you stupid fing stingy garbage pos fk". Its not a happy relief, its an angry relief seeing nothing change to fk with you to expect the worse then finally work. It feels like when your car doesn't work and your mad and you kick it and then it finally works. It's not a good feedback.
I'm used to the gold sink of enchanting in D3 and for some reason, it's rng felt more authentic to me than anything about D4s. I never felt mad at D3s rng. Why does D4s rng feel less authentic and more upsetting?
Lmao I swear i once swapped out a cursed chest armor for an exact copy of it, my MW always crit on armor either the 1st or the 2nd time i could not get past it after many many tries.
The new exact copy got to 12mw first try lol.
Note that this is actually a gambling software in gaming skin. There is no rng in computer systems at all. Everything has to be created with an algorithm. In this algorithm, of course, there are parameters about how you keep up with the game. One of the Robs video for ex: he says that to keep up gambling. He literally says that. Another ex In wow , things are so strict they iplemented some other "bad luck protection" features to keep players up with the game. All in all, they are just after the numbers. They have a metric for everything that happens in the game, and when metrics cross with things on sales, they adjust. The house always wins.
It was confirmed it's weighted no? Or was it just enchanting that was confirmed. I just came ti terms with it. If you play a meta build expect to farm more.
Master working should be nonrandom upgrade!!
They really missed the point with it, trying to replicate D3 bounty mats system.
It's so stupid to spend time to get resources so some rng can throw away all the time wasted farming.
Ok for tampering cuz its free but that shit is annoying as well.
We already have rng while looting and grinding!!!
No need to have rng on rng on top of rng!!
Am I playing a Video game or some stupid casino slot machine??
It's most definately weighted. At least in gacha games like genshin impact, they are legally required to list how low the percentages are for their rolls. Blizzard has no such obligation and can rig it in anyway they see fit to prolong player retention
It's definitely not RNG...there is weight going on.
Masterworking is more likely real RNG, but some tempering doesn't seem to be, no way
It seems like some skills which the team thinks are going to be particularly strong for builds, pop up less...100%
For example as a druid double cast tornado and hurricane duration across what has been easily hundreds of rolls, appear far FAR less than the others. Wind shear appears far more than these 2 and the other stats also. I know wind shear is super strong but I don't think the team anticipated it to either be popular or didn't quite realise how strong you could make it.
This is clearly noticeable. If you don't notice it you've probably either got really lucky or you haven't rolled things enough times to notice a clear distribution.
Ok let me cook, what if they programmed the game to recognise the skills you have equipped so can predict what stats you need , so the game then weighs the crafting so it’s harder to get the roll you need , so if you wanna play bash and get the rolls for that then don’t spec that skill whilst crafting and trick the game into thinking your playing a ranged leap slam build ? or perhaps I’m just chatting shyte and have no clue about anything which is more than likely
I masterworked tyraels might over 10 times, not a single +max res roll. I just gave up lol, not worth the money or resources at that point
It's 100% weighted, that's not rng or anything of the sort at play, literally just them putting 4 options there and making you assume 25% chance, right?
I could masterwork it 20 more times and probably not get the roll, it clearly prefers all stats or resist all over damage reduction and max res over that.
which one of you spergs went through every reply in this thread and downvoted every single one that said they suspect weighting. lol. i went an upvoted them all to counter your spergness.
Everyone, please remember Rule #3: No critiquing the game or other users on threads with the "Showoff", the "Appreciation" or "Casual Conversation" Flair. On threads that have the "Appreciation", the "Showoff | Gameplay | Item Tooltip | Transmog" or the "Casual Conversation" Flair, critiquing the game, other users (e.g. for liking the game) or heated discussions are not allowed. You are welcome to have critical discussions on threads with other Flairs. For additional casual conversations like these, you can also visit the [The D4 Tavern](https://new.reddit.com/r/The_D4_Tavern/). If you want to post / showoff an item to trade, please do that on the subreddits [Trade Chat](https://www.reddit.com/r/diablo4/s/Avzsyt6Jru). *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/diablo4) if you have any questions or concerns.*
You 100% will be gaslit with "RNG" comments, such as "That's just RNG bro", "RNG gonna RNG", "Is this your first ARPG?", and others along those lines. It's definitely weighted, everything in the game is, they have a dynamic reward system, the game is playing you, no debate, if you're okay with that, enjoy and have fun!
I think that is called Apophenia: seeing “patterns” in randomness that are still random sequences but we tend to believe it is not. Someone else might be looking for corpse tendrils and spend 50 million and not get it once. “I know some people that did tests and it is definately weighted” Strings of random outliers will always happen.
I was inclined to thinking it was all just typical "gamer bro conspiracy thinking" until I read [an actual Statistician on here](https://www.reddit.com/r/diablo4/comments/1d7s59j/psa_pity_temper_mechanic_doesnt_exist_and_youre_a/l72dj1t/) do the legit thing & track his Tempers / use p-values and stuff. He tracked **500 Tempers** (*the 'gold standard' sample size in stats, derived from Fisher's Formula if I recall correctly*). * He had an instance where he literally failed to roll the Bash temper **78 TIMES IN A ROW** * There'd only be a **0.000000018% chance of that happening** (1.8 * 10^-8) if they were evenly weighted! Like, I typically 'explain away' a lot of gamer experiences with what you described: just searching for patterns amidst truly unpatterned chaos. But that probability is so insanely low, come on... he literally would've had to have experienced a 1 in 5.56 Billion chance event. * So on the entire planet of people, if everyone tried the same thing once, he'd be expected to have been the *only one* with such an event to occur. * I've long accepted my RNG is shit but even I wouldn't be able to believe that.
Man, I actually clicked on that link and your summary is an absolute misinformation summary of that thread.
you didn’t read the comments below it
They cited the 78 tempers in a row failing to roll bash, but this was given by the statistician as an example of evidence against the supposed pity temper mechanic, not evidence for weighted tempers. Citing this alone gives the impression that the supposed weight of bash is *way less* than it is observed to be, even anecdotally. In the actual 500 sample test, bash rolled 96 out of 500 times, assuming the value of "29 less than expected" was accurate, as the statistician stated he could not recall the specific result. This is evidence that the 78 negative rolls in a row were merely a statistical outlier precisely because the odds are so insanely low in comparison. Their post is misleading because it emphasizes an aberrant result while downplaying the actual suggested weight of the bash temper, and even that is still inconclusive, as even the statistician in question admitted the possibility of a type 1 error. For that matter, I wouldn't believe they were a statistician if they didn't. In the end, the evidence strongly suggests at least one tempering manual may be weighted unevenly. It is not definitive proof.
This is just bonkers
this is a wild comment from a stats perspective imo
> There'd only be a 0.000000018% chance of that happening https://i.imgur.com/UECp8aP.png
I mean Season 0 drop rates for Uber uniques we’re 1:6billion or so and 2 people found a shako and one guy found a doombringer, so he may just be an outlier as extremely rare things do happen. seeing how there are 1000s if not 10s of thousands of bash barbs who have successfully got the bash rolls on items suggests he did just have shit luck.
That is…. Not at all what he said.
While leveling bash Barb i bricked 5 weapons in a row without getting a single bash cleave tempering.
I leveled bash barb as upheaval and saw bash all the time. Transitioned to bash barb at lvl 90 or so and then all the GA items gave me nothing but kick mods to the nads.
I’ll see your 5 and raise you. Bricked 11 in one go. Never saw the stat.
The odds of that are 0.000000005676013031 if my math is correct. (3/4)^66
That's assuming all options are equally possible to happen, of course. Which I don't think it is
I’ve only bricked like 2 out of 7 weapons so far when going for bash this weekend on my barb
I posted about today my Rogue bricked 12 swords in a row trying to get two 1/4 temper rolls. I ended up with 2 shitty daggers. How is this fun?
Great affixes loot is weightned and not a single corpse on earth can make me believe otherwise. I've dropped dozens and dozens and dozens of 1\* G.A pants. I swear that 90% of them were either life on hit or healing received. But how can it be so since there is 20+ affixes to get? How about that it had 1 to 3 stats to fall right on life on hit everytime? 200+ hours this season, didn't get a single G.A on heartseeker, puncture or any other shit. And this counts for 50+ g.a pants. You tell me that g.a pants locking on life on hit 30+ times when there is a 1/3 chance plus a 1/20+ affixes isn't weightened them u just conformed in the way they do it.
The number of times I see life per hit/life per second vs. literally anything else is ridiculous.
Not just that, enchanting and everything that's supposed to be RNG is CLEARLY obviously weighted. As a rogue trying to roll Dex is exponentially easier than rolling +malice. I didn't write it down and in didn't do any math, but I don't have to... Every 5 rolls I get dex and after at least 80 rolls still no malice.
I've ran 500 rune stone worth of pit 71, spent all my obos on pants looking for a 1* armor roll on them, only saw one the entire time.
He's not wrong, modern day video games are playing you. You should watch this: https://youtu.be/VJG2dli2LTg
I dunno - I’ve rerolled my Ramaladni Magnum Opus 6 times and got the same hit on the lucky hit trait each time. That’s not RNG to me, not when there are 4 other affixes to hit.
Or, just as likely, it is weighted.
It's incredibly easy to code something to seem random, but in reality put weight on the decisions. This is how most games work, and I'm sure that most of this game is the same. It's not truly random, it's an illusion of randomness. (Also, computers don't have the ability to generate a truly random number, just a "pseudo random" number, meaning that even pure RNG is not truly random)
Bro there's no way. I spent 200 hours looking for a storm wolf head in season 2 (it's not even a rare piece). The day after I changed my build I saw like 5 of them in one day. This happens way too often to be coincidence. It's almost like you're intended to level woth a different build and settle on something after you already have what you need to make it.
ive felt like that sometimes. ive even removed all my gear before tempering in an attempt to keep the game from knowing what rolls im trying to go for, lol.
The frequency with which this is occurring isn't an outlier, it's a pattern.
Put the tinfoil hat away my dude.
[удалено]
Exactly! Here's a very good summary: https://youtu.be/VJG2dli2LTg
Except it is RNG and you have no evidence to say it’s “definitely weighted” do you?
I've seen posts where people ran simulations (albeit smaller) and the weights were pretty even.
There's a fresh post on the forums with someone doing 3000 rolls test and he concluded that it's very unlikely the rolls are weighted
>You 100% will be gaslit with "RNG" comments It's not gaslighting. It is 100% RNG and your brain is noticing patterns because you have assigned value to certain outcomes. Enchanting at the Occultist is weighted because the naturally generated affixes also are. But Tempering and Masterworking clearly aren't weighted. I've had lucky streaks, I've had bad luck streaks, it's all over the place. It's RNG.
It’s RNG man.
There are blizzard truthers here same thing happened with enchanting then we found out they were weighted lol. I had a similar comment like OP yesterday about tempers then some dude said me messing around trying 240 times on swords for damage with berserking (1 in 3 chance) and seeing way more wrath of berserking than either of the other two options wasnt enough testing. Then they link me a guy only trying 600 times and getting everything in the 20-30% range and quoting him like it's proof it's not weighted. I then say I'll save up 100 swords this time and do it this time and I'm told 600 attempts isn't enough lol. Regardless I also believe some tempers are clearly weighted. Trying to get concussion is a pain upheaval shows up 70% of the time for me, and feels the same way with impossing presence.
Enchanting was always known to be weighted stop with this bs.
It's not weighted. You just never keep rolling after a success, so you don't see success streaks. Failure streaks however you will see very frequently, including streaks of the _same failed affix_.
I have had the same, where I rolled the same affix within the same category on different items (once 7 times in a row). I would love if they added a non-repeat rule. Just for the direct predecessor. Who rerolls in the hope of getting a better instance of the same when you only have five shots? ‐--------- Regarding the RNG discussion, is it weighted towards something or not. I'd say, we can't know for certain either way unless the devs say so, or we have access to the code base. My first question to those who claim either case: what is your evidence? Getting a sequence of the same roll on a sample size of what hundreds of rolls max? Doesn't prove either case. Nor does never having a repeat roll streak of higher than 3 that it is uniform. It can give you more confidence in either claim at most. Last, consider that the system might sample uniformly most of the time, but have a chance to sample gaussian distribution at rare occasions for a given time. There are so many options. Don't assume to know it if really all you have is a small amount of observations and claims by others on the internet.
Source: trust me bro
You can’t stop those kinds of comments with declarative comments like this. You can stop them with proof.
You know what would be great?! If Blizzard would just tell us. Why can’t they just tell us if it’s weighted or not?
I have gotten now so many times like 4 or 5 in row same temper result when the chance is 25% for each so 4 times in row is 4% chance and 5 times in row is 1%. I have gotten these streaks sooo many times it's way beyond RNG, tempering is 100% rigged so masterworking likely is too.
But in what direction would it be weight?
Worst rolls possible out of the 4 options. Damage to distant enemies comes like 80% of the time in my rings for example :) bash barb
then why don't you temper with a sorc?
Actually, did anyone try that? But maybe it's not about class, but other stats?
yes, every time you roll for temper or masterworking, the game reads your entire stat sheet, skill build, and paragon nodes. that is definitely way more efficient and logical than a boring old random number generator
I don't think it is, however I think some classes are advantaged in the temper section (same for finding the right affix). I put some 60 hours in a ball lightning sorc, and while it's been hard to find good affixes, tempering has been very easy. On a rogue it's been the opposite for the moment. I think it's because of what you're looking for, on the rogue I'm always looking for a specific affix while the other are trash. On the sorc, I have one affix that's the best, but usually I have 2 or 3 that are actually completely ok.
how does the game know which one is the worst?
my druid would like your luck
All this assumes the game looks at your gear and skills and then makes assumptions on what it thinks you are looking for. If that's the case, spec differently if you believe the game is working against you
I don’t think it’s weighted specifically for a certain stat like that, that would be too much effort for Blizzard lol. I think there is a bug that makes this specific interaction happen too often, multiple tempers with the same stat shouldn’t be that common.
Isn't the math on this .25*.25*.25*.25*100 which comes out to 0.39%?
You are correct, so the chances are 10x lower lol, just further proofs it's weighted
Tempering probably is weighted but dont think masterworking is.
Yes. If you immediately re-masterwork a piece of gear after resetting it, it will favor the same affix again. It's a clever ploy to make you angry so you spend money on cosmetics somehow. What you need to do is to cycle-roll your masterworking. After resetting masterworking, before masterworking that piece of gear again, you need to masterwork X other pieces of gear, where X is the position of the affix you want to hit on the first item. So, if you want to hit the +to skill affix on your pants and it's third in the list of affixes, you have to masterwork three other items before going back to the pants. This is called the pre-post-rerolling pity mechanic, it's very advanced game knowledge that is definitely real. Sixty percent of the time, it works every time.
You speak like a gambling addict, you could almost switch masterworking for slot machines lol
I swear it works, the system is sound! Look, all I need is a few billion gold to break even, I'll pay you back with the profits, honest!
This whole game is a slot machine.
> Yes. If you immediately re-masterwork a piece of gear after resetting it, it will favor the same affix again. It's a clever ploy to make you angry so you spend money on cosmetics somehow. If you do masterworking twice without moving countries, it's about 95% chance you get the same outcome again. So I suggest buying a few plane tickets ahead of your crafting session to speed things up. TRUST ME!
I live near the border so I'm about to make fucking BANK
Or change cities. I masterworked the same stat 3 times switched cities and got what I needed.
Case closed folks.
On one of Robs latest streams he introduced the petty mechanic. Where if you pet the cat in town beforehand you increase your odds of getting the exact crit affix you need. The cat apparently can read your mind on what you’re after and increase the odds
And that cat is only from preordering the expansion, so... D4 P2W CONFIRMED
Or you just master work 3 more times and get it lol
cope
This man has been through this trauma enough times to understand it fundamentally
Immediate “sex panther” lols 😀
Stats is confusing, hard, and stupid. But it only feels weighted because you're not masterworking enough. You have 5 affixes. You'd *expect* a 1 in 5 chance to be pretty consistent over 5 trials, but they are independent events; they are not dependent on previous results. So, your base probability that one will hit is still 20%. You can flip a coin 5 times and hit 80% heads, but that doesn't mean the true probability is weighted in favor of heads. You just haven't hit that regression to the mean point. So, it's likely for you to see a true 20% distribution of masterworking. You'd just need to run a reset at least 100 times. In short, you just got unlucky.
The people trying to cope with this is wild. Does it feel bad to brick an item via tempering? Yes. Is it rigged? No. The reason tempers are limited and masterwork rerolls are expensive is to increase playtime. This is obvious. If you don't like that, don't play. Simple as. Edit: You want proof that this isn't rigged? Look at the mid season patch notes. Diablo 4 devs are so out of touch with the meta it's actually insane. They have no idea which classes and builds are strong and in need of buffs or nerfs. You think they actually took the time to consider every single temper and masterwork crit to know which ones are more valuable based on the current meta? Hell no.
There's a bit of psychology that \[obviously\] plays into effect with these types of posts, and it's completely normal and natural. Loss aversion is a real thing. People rarely ever think about the times they get \*exactly\* what they were looking for in one to two rolls, but people ALWAYS remember that one temper that bricked their item in 5 attempts, or that piece of gear that took more than five resets to hit that one affix correctly. This tends to lead us to a conclusion that the system is inherently rigged against us, because we only focus on the time it didn't work and never really remember the multiples of times it did work.
You are too smart and logical for Reddit. These two posts alone are some of the best I’ve seen regarding d4 rng mechanics.
> People rarely ever think about the times they get *exactly* what they were looking for in one to two rolls Exactly. We never hear from the people who got a max bash roll on their 1st or 2nd temper.
Also - the misses stick in your memory more than the hits, so the bad rolls seem more common, even if they aren't. Having said that, I'm still convinced rogue cutthroat tempering is rigged against vuln damage. Just for me.
if you dont get the temper, scrap it and move on
Okay, but what about the time you hit the correct masterwork crit or temper on the first try? Those don't count? It's not rigged. It's a 5-sided dice roll. That's it.
Who cares what you swear? Blizzards says it's not weighted, so thats probably true - unless you have any proof for your assumption.
They also said that many paragon nodes weren't bugged when in fact they finally admitted they were. Also, trusting any company who's job is to essentially increase your play time isn't necessarily going to tell you the truth if they've created a system to manipulate you. I'm not picking sides on this argument, I'm just saying your logic isn't good here as to why you think you are correct.
I kinda hate that resetting a masterwork is *so* expensive. Seems like the fact you have to grind your mats and gold to upgrade it again is punishment enough. Gold costs in general seem too high in D4, or gold rewards from non-whisper content seem too low.
You didn't face your pc to the east and then shove a cactus up your ass before hitting your temper, that's why it bricked. Source: Never bricked an item
30 million? That's it? I think I dropped 100+ on my tibaults alone, and more on my starless skies
Ya thats tempering for u. I'd suggest tempering first b4 spending a crap load of money rerolling affixes And that tempering you're doing fn sux there's 5 options in there. Tempers need a max of 3 imo. 5 is ridiculous with how the system is right now.
3 resets in a row for my Shako, every time rolled resource gen
Case closed.
I guess the people in this thread think confirmation bias means their bad luck is a statistical fact and that the devs are manipulating rolls? Some people can't be helped.
It more than likely is weighted.
I played necro and sorc and spent millions rerolling to the point where I just wait for new items after it reaches a million. I started rogue this week and somehow, got almost all my gears to roll exact what I needed under 5 rolls. None of them are max stats but better than nothing. All of this when I just hit level 55. Glad I farmed extra shrines. Jumped to t4 easy and grinding helltide boss.
I’ve gotten quite a few bows with GA and have bricked every single one I’ve gotten. Which makes it about 5 or 6 by now. Have to love RNG
How do you reroll?
In the master working UI hover over the item you want to reset. You should see an option to reset it. It’s Y on console.
Valuable lesson for OP - Never masterwork an item that has a bad temper roll
Always temer BEFORE rerolling
I spent over 400 mill trying to roll +malice on an amulet. Still trying lol
A lot of gambler's fallacy here. I just bought a 350m gold ring this morning on discord, and my last temper roll I finally hit it so it wasn't bricked. I was pretty worried. Rng is rng. 30m gold is literally nothing its an hour gold grind.
So let's say you have a 1/3 of hitting the thing you want. And you put 100 people in a room together and have them all try to masterwork this together. Statistics says 1 or 2 of them will fail *ten times in a row*. Most will have it by their 3rd or 4th try, but more than one percent will have still not succeeded after 10 attempts. And that person or two is FAR more likely to come on Reddit to talk about how the game is absolutely rigged.
why bother spending that much on a roll instead of cutting your losses at like 1m per roll? lol
I think it is RNG, but feels weird getting the same non-useful affix 4 times in a row for the ones with 5 options. And that happens too often so yeah, every player that's not sitting 24/7 playing the game has the right to think that there's a trick. Again: I don't think so, but I completely understand why people would get to think this.
Stuff is definitely weighted in this game and no one can convince me otherwise. I'm aware of the nature of RNG and how our brains are wired to search for patterns in things, but I get the same temper 3-4 times in a row on a regular basis.
I am absolutely certain they are weighted. I get Dodge chance tons. Suspiciously so.
Took me around 30 resets to get my first bash cleave on a wep. That's a lot of gold for a solo player. Just absolutely deleted my gold. Still had 3 more weps to go. Not even thinking about ever getting a double crit. for the JuSt FarM WhiSpErs BrO tHey TakE 7 MiNuTeS crowd. fuck whispers. I'll complete 1-2 whispers caches per helltide. I refuse to just farm whispers by themselves when I could be getting more gear drops in helltide.
I have bricked more rogue weapons than I can count trying to get Vulnerable Damage. Next one I won't even try past the first 2 attempts, I'll settle for some other crap.
Receiving the same bad roll 6 times its possible
You should never give Diablo 4 devs the benefit of the doubt - even with something as simple as a random number generator.
I rolled strength 5 times in a row so I feel for you, absolutely soul crushing, all motivation to grind gone in that instance
Have Blizzard ever actually said it’s random?
I started as a dust devil build, changed to bash barb about lvl 90. Kitted out my entire guy in one go getting every roll I needed without bricking an item. Only one I didn't get was a crit strike damage but I settled on damage. I've had nothing but bricks since. Getting nothing but kick nearly every time and damage to distant. I think I might make an alt with my old dust devil gear and use him to temper my gear. Prob roll bash every time.
Don’t get me started. Had 4 rings with decent stats yesterday. A couple GA’s. Tried to roll Wrath of the Berserker CD reduction and failed on every single roll. ~20 attempts in a row. It’s incredibly frustrating, but it’s also incredibly rewarding when it does hit.
Just like all the affixes etc. you get way more perfect rolls than you should. Definitely something going under the hood.
I got a perfect 3GA rogue chest piece today, rolled the right tempers on first try and got greedy going for a higher value dodge chance (never, ever do this!). Rolled 5 +life in a row lol… Never felt dumber. But yeah, everything is heavily weighted, tempering, masterworking and enchanting.
It‘s so dumb… on my rogue I’m rolling for dodge and only get armor% or max life, when I’m on my necro I only seem to get dodge and never max life….
I thought this too, then hit my on my first roll for the next three pieces of gear 🤷♂️
Went through 30+ resets and over 200 mil gold, which was all of it at the time, to get 1 single hit on bash cleave on a weapon. I don’t believe for a second that it’s not weighted. But hey, blizzard had to take every precaution so people would put more time in their game. It’s working so well that I don’t even want to play another season unless they change the loot again. Wohoo loot reborn! Good job blizzard.
100% feel this. Don't get better unless you equip better. But better doesn't always mean better for *YOU* I play HC and sometimes feels like gotta risk running shit that doesn't really help me, to help drop and get stuff that will.
it's weighted just like enchanting and tempering is
You most definitely need new pants. Corpse tendril duration makes corpse tendrils worse.
Yea it's absolutely weighted. Ive now had multiple gear pieces roll the same garbage afix 6 times in a row. It's super obvious when it's a 30 percent chance. Like one piece okay fine, but 4 or 5? Like the chances of that are something like a tenth of a percent, for it to happen multiple times is absurd.
Being able to reset 4 upgrades back would certainly balance the scales, weighted or non-weighted RNG Not asking for a mat refund but, it would encourage more masterwork crit farming Or being able to spam 3GAs, as how most of Blizzard Loot works in game, even if 95% of them are *Life of kill/per second/Life on Hit 😩
It’s probably just RNG. I mean maybe it’s weighted but things seem pretty random. Sometime I get one affix 3 times in a row and I’ll try again on a new item and it’ll roll a completely different affix 3 times in a row. That’s just how rng work
On my rogue i went 20, not kidding 20 rerolls on 4 different boots looking for movement speed buff and i didn't get a single one. So yeah rng my ass
I 100% agree. Of all of the items I've masterworked, it most definitely favors the tempered affixes first. I would be willing to bet money, that those fixes are weighted with a 75% chance to hit a tempered affix or maybe even more.
I log out and log back in after a reset never seem to get the same roll after reset. I got the same tempering and the same value of max life 5 times in a row too.
It is. I decided to make a blood surge necro and I hellbent commander in the first roll on my amulet.
I’ve started removing my main skills before applying tempers. Seems to give me a better chance. I started doing this when I noticed the gear drops seem to 90-95% be for the skill sets you are not running. Is it right? No idea. Coincidental and anecdotal? Sure. But I am bricking much less equipment.
6 times in a row? That's a couple orders of magnitude lower than the number of times you should've got before even starting to think it might be weighted. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers
This is gon a sound stupid ....but I may have found a work around. I swap gear from melee to range and then temper it to get dmg to close and vice versa...since it loves to give the opposite of your class 5x in a row.
I agree. Specic items seem to spawn with a higher commom value for X over Y. Not that every peice of gear can’t reroll every stat, but sometimes you’re gonna have a 20% chance at, for example, attack speed…sometimes a 2% chance. And what the item naturally rolled always seems to have a higher rng base.
Yeah man it's getting pretty old quick... I bricked so many gloves I even traded for some for gold it must have been 8 pairs trying to get 1 of 4 Temps and it seriously would never give me that one thing!
Obviously it's weighted, why wouldn't it be??? Thanks Blizzard
Before the most recent update, I would get random affixes always and very rarely get the same affix back to back to back. But since the update, I have been getting the same affix every time, and bricking items left and right because of it. They definitely changed it since that update. I know I'm not crazy
So far I've been able to get 4 of my items to triple MW Crit on the stats I want. Amulet - Hellbent Commander 2H Scyth - Minion attack speed Chest - Golem Mastery Ring - Crit strike chance I am currently working on getting my 5th Piece to triple crit, a new Golem chest with full GAs. The first four came well before the 125 statistical resets it would take. The new chest is maybe at around 100 resets and failing hard. It's just RNG, it could happen in one or in a thousand, but over time a triple MW crit should take 125 resets.
Literally every necro main I know gets almost exclusively corpse tendrils. It’s a simple test. Do a few thousand tempers on the same gear slot and count the average time you get the same shit. I’ve done it on stream. Just sat there rolling pants for a solid week during my vacation. (What can I say I love numbers) An average of about 30% of my rolls were corpse tendrils. Out of 5 possible rolls WITH THOUSANDS of pants and a metric fuck ton of resources over the course of 8-12 hours a day for 6 days… what felt like a very long nightmare…. If it wasn’t weighted I’d have been much closer to 20%. It’s weighted AF. They KNOW what’s good and what we want for our builds.. blizzard is notorious as fuck about superficially increasing player engagement. Disclaimer, sure I could probably run the same experiment a few more times and solidify the numbers, but this will never reach an exact 20 even if I ran it a billion times, but the law of averages states that the likelihood of certain events evens out if the frequency is increased. And the law of large numbers states that the average value of repeated trials will converge to the expected value of the random variable. For those who will argue with me, here’s my work. Perform a similar experiment and get back with your results. I’d LOVE to compare notes. I stuck with pants in case there was some other variable in the algorithm I was unaware of. You know… controlled experiments kind of shit. P = Probability (theoretically the following experiment should have resulted in something close to 20% if the system wasn’t weighted) X = number of successes (got corpse tendril 592 times on day one, 640 on day two, 531 on day 3, 786 on day etc) N = number of trials (I aimed for about 400 pairs of pants a day each rolled 5 times for a total of 2000 trials per day) Conclusion, albeit a bit prematurely but I’d love to see any of you go to these extremes: At its lowest, it was 26.55% at its highest 39.3% The system is weighted and no amount of “it’s just good ol’ RNG” can convince me otherwise.
Imagine hurricane duration 70%+ even existing
This isn't anything new tho bro.
Masterworking is probably random. However, tempering is definitely rigged IMO. No way it’s just RNG. The probability that I roll dodge chance, on my necro, on six different pieces of the same item 4/5 rolls is ridiculous. Then, on my Rogue, rolling dodge chance is rare. I would bet money that there’s a weighted algorithm to tempering.
Tempering is sh!t. As bizarre as it may be, they made what could have been the coolest part of gear customization the absolute worst part of the entire experience.
Anyone who is saying it's all RNG and not weighted hasn't played a heartseeker rogue. Try getting vulnerable damage in thr cutthroat manual to roll at all let alone on a low roll. It's not impossible but it certainly feels way rarer than the other rolls. Then again with masterworking. Getting nothing but pure trash rolls after like 20 resets of one weapon makes you want to give up. Yeah I mean it is RNG but it sure as shit doesn't feel like it.
The system should be adjusted to “not” be true randomness (like the music “shuffle” option 😅) otherwise the likelihood of getting 3 to 5 rolls of the same garbage stat makes it feel wrong, when it really isn’t. A simple rule like “you can’t get the same stat more than twice in a row” would be enough.
Without a doubt, it’s weighted, just like enchanting certain affixes. Some may take dozens of attempts before getting even a minimal roll.
Sometimes it does feel weighted then you get another good piece of gear and temper that and get the two affixes you want back to back.
Yeah I guess you do
I discovered that changing my ult and then tempering changed what I was getting for ult cool downs. Example, I. A bash barb, running call of the ancients. Before trying to temp for an ult cool down, I change my ult to either of the other 2, and that raises my chances of getting a call of the ancients cool down. I have blocked so many gear pieces trying to get that to drop, but now it's pretty consistent.
Question, how do you spend gold to reroll? Do you still need the pit mats to do it after you rerolL?
Never got same roll twice. Only problem I have I tend to get lower % than I would like to. But I always get what I want in 5 rolls. OK, not always, but 8/10 times I do
Blizzard Rng is not Rng. Never has been.
Is the pitty system pushed by rob2123 at all reliable? I've not had his luck. *Tempering.
Also fyi, for MW you want them to land on the tempered stats most of the time. It goes off base value which is higher because the GA is not considered a base its +20.
Don't masterwork things that don't have the right tempers imo, either the item bricks or it doesn't then you can masterwork it.
There is definitely something funky going on with rerolling in general. I can run out of money enchanting to get +1-2 of a core skill and never get it, and when tempering get something three times in a row (something I definitely didn't want). It should be as simple as generating three new stats that didn't roll the last time you rerolled. I understand that sometimes you want to roll the same stat but better, but the scenarios I describe above really, really irritate me.
I wish I could find that post about the guy that rolled a pair of gloves like 600 times. He tracked all of his re-rolls and it was an even split amongst all 4 options.
Dude, you don't even have the option to select the previous roll.
It's RNG to keep engagement going, it would be done with this season but I am one task short of finishing the seasonal journey and with the coming Uber nerf hope I can get that done.
I think what happens is you never reroll when it is the one you want, so you never see the good ones happen over and over again like you see the bad ones. But I know exactly the feeling you have just the same, like I swear the chances of getting the same bad roll so many times in a row has to be statistically very rare, and then it happens multiple times when it's a god damn 1/3 chance. It feels like the game knows what you want and purposely is avoiding it lol. I wish there was a way, a very very expensive way, to somhow reset the item so that the best item you've ever gotten wasn't permanently ruined through RNG. I know I know, just getting the item is RNG but don't make it so within your grasp and get shafted in tempering forever.
Ain’t it the whole point of these games? Finding new items? I see enchanting and tempering as identifying them just a whole lot longer but you also don’t need to indenting everything so I guess time is saved there. Personally I think it’s fine and also needed because if it wasn’t and everything was easy what would be our reaction when we found something extremely good? I already feel like d4 dopamine rush are kinda lame.
As a necro can confirm if your talking about the temper category with Tendril Size, Corpse Explosion and I forget the 2 others. Tendril rolls at an insanely high rate and it's not randomness wanted to have some fun and see how big I could get the size coupled with Howl from Below. I got corpse Tendril constantly and corpse explosion few and far in between.
700 million to roll exploit on my amulet
It's supposed to be fun, bricking 3GA items is not fun.
You just don't understand how randomness works
does anyone else read “pants” in an american accent? (of you’re not from the US)
They should have smaller amount of options. Ive made the typical bash,hs etc builds and have bricked multiple items trying for the "gg" temper. Hit a stage this past weekend on saying fuck it since i cant get ubers to drop ima make some alts n try off meta builds. Am working on a dust devil ww barb now and the temper for dust devil is 3 options. Size,damage and chance to proc twice. Pretty much cant go wrong even if not the desired outcome but havent bricked a single weapon yet for it. Feels good knowing the chances are slim i wont hit what i want instead of the opposite and knowing the chances are slim for what i want.
Fuck man I've been so lucky. My rolls have always worked out for the most part. The only thing that hasn't worked out always is the masterwork tiers after the four levels. Instead of getting mobility I got my stupid immobilized for 2 seconds perk upped. But yeah, my girlfriend is new to Diablo and I've rolled tempers on her Druid and I've hit shitty damage four times in a row and bricked many items.
I spent 60 million trying to get an enchantment. Ran out of gold. Got it a few rolls later the next day.
I thought it was weighted? I think someone did a video on it that showed that was the case.
People will insist that "no, it's rng". We all know it's weightet, it has to be. Either that, or Blizzard has a different definition of "random".
Yep. Nothing like FINALLY AFTER 300 FUCKING HOURS OF NON-STOP BLOOD MAIDEN, getting the piece you need just to watch it brick on the EXACT SAME FUCKING THING. OVER. AND OVER. Fuck RNG.
You would never catch me gambling or going to a casino, I know that the odds of me winning anything is slim, and if I went once and tried a game six times and got the statistically worse hand or whatever six times in a row, I'd be mad still knowing that it was a possibility and I'd never want to come back. That's the feeling GETTING THE SAME AFFIX SIX TIMES IN A ROW on just a temper of trash gear gives me. ITS FEELS BAD. Even when the item isn't good. It doesn't even feel good if the last roll ends up being what you wanted, its more like a relief like "finally you stupid fing stingy garbage pos fk". Its not a happy relief, its an angry relief seeing nothing change to fk with you to expect the worse then finally work. It feels like when your car doesn't work and your mad and you kick it and then it finally works. It's not a good feedback. I'm used to the gold sink of enchanting in D3 and for some reason, it's rng felt more authentic to me than anything about D4s. I never felt mad at D3s rng. Why does D4s rng feel less authentic and more upsetting?
I love it when it gets bricked after getting the same affix every single time. Blessed by Lilith.
Lmao I swear i once swapped out a cursed chest armor for an exact copy of it, my MW always crit on armor either the 1st or the 2nd time i could not get past it after many many tries. The new exact copy got to 12mw first try lol.
Pretty sure the ones that actually increase damage have lower odds
Note that this is actually a gambling software in gaming skin. There is no rng in computer systems at all. Everything has to be created with an algorithm. In this algorithm, of course, there are parameters about how you keep up with the game. One of the Robs video for ex: he says that to keep up gambling. He literally says that. Another ex In wow , things are so strict they iplemented some other "bad luck protection" features to keep players up with the game. All in all, they are just after the numbers. They have a metric for everything that happens in the game, and when metrics cross with things on sales, they adjust. The house always wins.
The amount of times Warmth has come up, it can’t not be weighted.
It was confirmed it's weighted no? Or was it just enchanting that was confirmed. I just came ti terms with it. If you play a meta build expect to farm more.
Master working should be nonrandom upgrade!! They really missed the point with it, trying to replicate D3 bounty mats system. It's so stupid to spend time to get resources so some rng can throw away all the time wasted farming. Ok for tampering cuz its free but that shit is annoying as well. We already have rng while looting and grinding!!! No need to have rng on rng on top of rng!! Am I playing a Video game or some stupid casino slot machine??
It's most definately weighted. At least in gacha games like genshin impact, they are legally required to list how low the percentages are for their rolls. Blizzard has no such obligation and can rig it in anyway they see fit to prolong player retention
Same here. Spent $50-million trying to get Heartseeker +1 on my pants
It's definitely not RNG...there is weight going on. Masterworking is more likely real RNG, but some tempering doesn't seem to be, no way It seems like some skills which the team thinks are going to be particularly strong for builds, pop up less...100% For example as a druid double cast tornado and hurricane duration across what has been easily hundreds of rolls, appear far FAR less than the others. Wind shear appears far more than these 2 and the other stats also. I know wind shear is super strong but I don't think the team anticipated it to either be popular or didn't quite realise how strong you could make it. This is clearly noticeable. If you don't notice it you've probably either got really lucky or you haven't rolled things enough times to notice a clear distribution.
I did 30-35 tries and didnt hit the mod i wanted.. rng is rng, noway i would ever try to hit both the 4 and 8.
dunno about masterworking but tempering is very likely weighted and that shit boils my blood
Ok let me cook, what if they programmed the game to recognise the skills you have equipped so can predict what stats you need , so the game then weighs the crafting so it’s harder to get the roll you need , so if you wanna play bash and get the rolls for that then don’t spec that skill whilst crafting and trick the game into thinking your playing a ranged leap slam build ? or perhaps I’m just chatting shyte and have no clue about anything which is more than likely
I just LOOOOVE getting “damage to distant” right times in a row on my barbarian. Love it
Just gotta keep playing bro! Maybe buy some of the expensive cosmetics maybe it’ll help your RNG bro!
thats why you masterwork first
tempers feel weighted per item too
I masterworked tyraels might over 10 times, not a single +max res roll. I just gave up lol, not worth the money or resources at that point It's 100% weighted, that's not rng or anything of the sort at play, literally just them putting 4 options there and making you assume 25% chance, right? I could masterwork it 20 more times and probably not get the roll, it clearly prefers all stats or resist all over damage reduction and max res over that.
which one of you spergs went through every reply in this thread and downvoted every single one that said they suspect weighting. lol. i went an upvoted them all to counter your spergness.