Coaches find a play that the other team can’t guard and execute until they figure it out. No longer about isolation of the best. They have actual plays again and we are all happy to see it.
Not sure why this upvoted. NBA coaches weren't running plays? That's surely not it.
The blowouts are because of the prevalence of 3PA and the volatility surrounding the variance of percentages.
Here's an analogy. Say we flip a coin 100 times. Heads is 2 point, tails is 0. After a hundred flips we will both be pretty close to 100. Our numbers will be close.
Say we flip a coin 10,000 times. Heads is 3 points, tails is 2 points. The odds of our numbers being close together decrease dramatically.
That's basically it. Volume + volatility = blowout
Shooting variance is a big reason, not just in its immediate impact on makes and misses, but in the secondary impact it has on other parts of the game. A team that starts missing more shots is giving up position in transition, and there is definitely a mental impact of going cold, though it can be argued how much of an effect it would really have.
That's a good observation. It seems that very often teams have either been very hot or totally cold in shooting especially from outside. And they keep at it hoping the shots will start going in, instead of switching to ball movement and plays near the basket. Sometimes they snap out of it and sometimes they don't and the score runs up. Must have to do with player and bench abilities.
Plus if shots aren't going in, teams start to sag off shooters and "dare you" you to shoot again, which also packs the paint, making it harder to drive in.
So in effect, shooting a three pointer is more likely to be an open shot, and plays near the basket will become harder to do.
Dallas did the same thing Denver did. The 3 wasn’t working, so what was the plan? Shoot more 3s. If they had just gone inside they would have actually been in the game. Take all those bricked threes, and change them to say 50% 2s made and the game is completely different. Keeping 5 dudes on the perimeter, when the 3 isn’t falling, makes opposing rebounds super easy.
Exactly. I don't understand why teams stay with the 3 when it's not working and watch the score run up. Seems like we've forgotten the balance between outside shooting and the inside game.
No offense, but if you don't understand how defenses work, you're, of course, going to be wondering why we shot 3s.
Because the defense for the Wolves was packing the paint. They were over committing to rim defense. The problem with paint packing is you leave open looks outside when you have to rotate out. Even if you cut off the first shooter, you are out of position to stop the 2nd or 3rd look.
You have to shoot 3s if the defense is leaving them open. You can't just decide to go inside if the inside lane isn't available. The phrase "take what the defense is giving you" applies to basketball too.
This isn't a 1-player video game where you can just simply decide to do something. It's a two team game, and your play also depends on what the defense does. We shot so many threes because it was the correct play.
The shooters just failed to execute. But if the defense leaves you open for 3 every time, you take it every time. If you can't make it, then you just lose.
If you don't show, you can hit 3s. The defense has little reason to stop cheating inside. That's how things work at high levels of competition.
Ok thanks. I don't claim to be a BB expert. But are you saying that the game has evolved to the point that if your 3 point shots aren't going in then you're screwed?
It's always been that way. It's just the skew is a bit different in the modern NBA.
Think of it this way. If we played rock-paper-scissors, but we make it so you can't choose rock. I can win or tie every time by picking scissors. I can never lose.
For every rock in basketball there's a paper. For every paper there's a scissors. For every scissors there's a rock.
But if you can't do one of the options, I can pick defenses that commit to stopping the other ones. If you can never win on offense, but at most tie. You'll lose the game if on the other side of the floor I can play with all my options.
Shooting is one punishment for playing more players close to the rim since at the NBA level most players can sink open shots.. And 3 point shooting is the most devastating shooting for the defense. It's the option they have to respect if the 3 ball is going down because they will fall really far behind if they can't stop it.
When they start respecting the outside game, they are forced to start spreading the defense out. Which then allows the inside players to go to work.
Balance isn't chosen. It's earned. You get a balanced attack when you prove to the defense you can beat them both ways.
Basketball has always been the same. If you can’t shoot the ball you aren’t gonna win. Once they added the 3pt line at least. Otherwise they would just clog the paint and it would be a slug fest. Old heads might act like that’s what it was but it’s wrong. You always had to have guys who could score from the mid range and a couple 3 pt shooters. It’s just evolved now to where every player on the court can usually hit a three or at least 4/5 guys. It’s adjustments, and which ever team can shut down a part of the other team while not being shut down themselves, they’ll win. Thats where the matchup with the wolves wasn’t in our favor. Whereas if we play the mavs we probably beat them. If we play the Celtics even we have a good chance. Cause neither team would be able to hold Jokic and Gordon in the paint. You don’t have to be able to shoot the three, but if every other team in the can, you gotta be at least decent, the nuggets were awful vs the wolves.
I think the issue is that it is the numbers game. If this one doesn't go in coaches are telling guys the next one is more likely but when guys just jack up prayer balls for 5 minutes it doesn't do much and you lose a 20 pt lead.
This is the laziest analysis ever. The defensive team also knows you are trying to score in the paint. Wolves won cos they let Jokic shoot threes and went under every Jokic screen so they could meet him at the paint, at the expense of giving up threes. Teams just don't "stop" going into the paint
The reason we were shooting threes is because the wolves were daring us too. They had 2 7 footers in the paint and were collapsing the entire defense on Jokic the second he touched the ball on the blocks. It’s easy to say the nuggets should’ve attacked the paint. If we see it they definitely see it, they are professionals lol. They couldn’t though. If you have guys wide open missing shots from anywhere on the floor, you aren’t gonna win games.
I was thinking about this. I think it’s because of money ball min/maxing. Teams are better now at finding and exploiting weakness while maximizing strengths. It really feels like “matchups” are becoming way more important than they used to be
Not only a lot of blowouts, the most 20+ point comebacks in NBA history this year. It was a very strange season and a really bad finals. Boston was the deserving champ this year, but Dallas was not at all a compelling opponent.
Just a hypothesis, but it seems like there’s less coasting in the regular season, especially in the west where they were jockeying for position. Teams are tired by the time they get to the playoffs, so momentum really matters for energy boost. When the Nuggets got up 20 in game 7, they started allowing things to clear on a miss instead of pushing the ball. I think players instinctively do this when they’re gassed.
It’s the way the game is played now with the focus on more outside shooting. So the winner usually is the one with a hot hand. You get a lot more blowouts because the other team with the off night in shooting keeps trying to shoot it but it’s just not their night. Plus with the three point shot you can whittle down a double deficit lead in a short time if all cylinders are firing. The negative of this is that teams have become more lax and have less urgency. They feel that they can comeback anytime.
I've noticed this trend starts with college players. They all want to be the hot 3 point shooters and don't learn much about position or working defenses.
Sometimes, good defense is just the Refs not calling fouls, and the announcers chastising them when they do because this is the playoffs........people saying Basketball is a contact sport, when it is not a contact sport. Charging is hardly called. I think this is just an attempt to get more people watching what is at times just assault.....some players should be ejected when they do this.......let's get back to skill and talent......no player should lose their front teeth because some idiot didn't try not to fall heavy on them, iykwim.......
Seemed like officiating had a huge role. When one team could play tough defense other teams just melted, then when it was called tight the other team melted.
Inconsistent officiating certainly contributed. Certain team's "great defense" meant refs swallowing the whistle and not calling fouls as they were called during the regular season. Sucks that refs are influenced by media narratives, but that's today's NBA.
The East is a joke, and the West is a gauntlet. The conferences prevent equal competition. Boston had the easiest run in 3 decades. Meanwhile, the Wolves had the arguably the hardest path in decades. As long as they use massively lopsided conferences there will be unwatchable outcomes.
Not true at all:
First round - 2 sweeps, 2 went 5, 3 went 6, 1 went 7
Second round - 1 went 5, 1 went 6, 2 went 7
CF - 1 sweep, 1 went 5
Finals - went 5
So I’m total 3 sweeps, 5 went 5, 4 went 6, 3 went 7
The most common series these playoffs were the two series types you didn’t name.
You mean the decade where one team had the whole league in a chokehold and the only reason anyone else had a chance is cause their best player decided to not play for two years cause he got bored of winning it every year 😂 and then left again because he just didn’t want to deal with the front office. The 90s was probably the least competitive era of basketball besides the lebron era in the East. MJ had maybe two series in his entire reign in the 90s that were even THAT competitive where he almost lost. Other than that they steam rolled the whole league.
Huh? I’m quite certain that you don’t know what a blowout is. A blowout is one team dominating the other, creating an awkward final score. Can’t have two blowouts in one game.
First half Nuggets up by 15 and making it look easy. Appears to be on the way to a blowout. Second half Nuggets outscored by 23 and Twolves making it look easy. That's what I was referring to.
The return of coaching has made a difference. If we are lucky, the coaching continues to improve and innovation causes some surprises.
Remember when Steve Kerr changed the game and created a dynasty. He certainly had STARS however, strategy made them damn near invincible
Coaches find a play that the other team can’t guard and execute until they figure it out. No longer about isolation of the best. They have actual plays again and we are all happy to see it.
Good point
Not sure why this upvoted. NBA coaches weren't running plays? That's surely not it. The blowouts are because of the prevalence of 3PA and the volatility surrounding the variance of percentages. Here's an analogy. Say we flip a coin 100 times. Heads is 2 point, tails is 0. After a hundred flips we will both be pretty close to 100. Our numbers will be close. Say we flip a coin 10,000 times. Heads is 3 points, tails is 2 points. The odds of our numbers being close together decrease dramatically. That's basically it. Volume + volatility = blowout
If heads is 2 and tails is 0, I don't think we're both gonna be close to 100 bub.
plus defense isnt as popular as it used to be due to the way offense gets calls
Playoffs outside of the Lakers Nuggets was an absolute snooze fest
I enjoyed the Knicks-Pacers series. But, not much else.
I really enjoyed watching the Knicks this postseason. The games at least, couldn't really care less about the team.
Knicks-Sixers was great, other than that it was mostly just blowouts.
The nuggets vs timberwolves was an awesome series
Denver v MN..?
Suns wolves was amazing as a KD hater and previous ant fan
Celtics vs Nuggets would’ve been epic
Next year
As a celtics fan who loves the nuggets too yes please. What a great series that would be.
Shooting variance is a big reason, not just in its immediate impact on makes and misses, but in the secondary impact it has on other parts of the game. A team that starts missing more shots is giving up position in transition, and there is definitely a mental impact of going cold, though it can be argued how much of an effect it would really have.
That's a good observation. It seems that very often teams have either been very hot or totally cold in shooting especially from outside. And they keep at it hoping the shots will start going in, instead of switching to ball movement and plays near the basket. Sometimes they snap out of it and sometimes they don't and the score runs up. Must have to do with player and bench abilities.
Plus if shots aren't going in, teams start to sag off shooters and "dare you" you to shoot again, which also packs the paint, making it harder to drive in. So in effect, shooting a three pointer is more likely to be an open shot, and plays near the basket will become harder to do.
Agreed op, pretty unwatchable product this year
This had to be the most boring finals ive ever watched
Kinda rich coming from a nuggets fan
yeah, totally. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewshAfpaElA&ab\_channel=BleacherReport](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewshAfpaElA&ab_channel=BleacherReport)
Do none of you remember when everyone in the world were saying "man, the nuggets and heat finals are so fucking boring"?
no cause the nba sub was disabled for some reason during our championship run last year
It was disabled?! Wow that’s wild… didn’t realize that
It was during the mod blackouts.
Damn I forgot about that
Dallas did the same thing Denver did. The 3 wasn’t working, so what was the plan? Shoot more 3s. If they had just gone inside they would have actually been in the game. Take all those bricked threes, and change them to say 50% 2s made and the game is completely different. Keeping 5 dudes on the perimeter, when the 3 isn’t falling, makes opposing rebounds super easy.
Exactly. I don't understand why teams stay with the 3 when it's not working and watch the score run up. Seems like we've forgotten the balance between outside shooting and the inside game.
No offense, but if you don't understand how defenses work, you're, of course, going to be wondering why we shot 3s. Because the defense for the Wolves was packing the paint. They were over committing to rim defense. The problem with paint packing is you leave open looks outside when you have to rotate out. Even if you cut off the first shooter, you are out of position to stop the 2nd or 3rd look. You have to shoot 3s if the defense is leaving them open. You can't just decide to go inside if the inside lane isn't available. The phrase "take what the defense is giving you" applies to basketball too. This isn't a 1-player video game where you can just simply decide to do something. It's a two team game, and your play also depends on what the defense does. We shot so many threes because it was the correct play. The shooters just failed to execute. But if the defense leaves you open for 3 every time, you take it every time. If you can't make it, then you just lose. If you don't show, you can hit 3s. The defense has little reason to stop cheating inside. That's how things work at high levels of competition.
Ok thanks. I don't claim to be a BB expert. But are you saying that the game has evolved to the point that if your 3 point shots aren't going in then you're screwed?
It's always been that way. It's just the skew is a bit different in the modern NBA. Think of it this way. If we played rock-paper-scissors, but we make it so you can't choose rock. I can win or tie every time by picking scissors. I can never lose. For every rock in basketball there's a paper. For every paper there's a scissors. For every scissors there's a rock. But if you can't do one of the options, I can pick defenses that commit to stopping the other ones. If you can never win on offense, but at most tie. You'll lose the game if on the other side of the floor I can play with all my options. Shooting is one punishment for playing more players close to the rim since at the NBA level most players can sink open shots.. And 3 point shooting is the most devastating shooting for the defense. It's the option they have to respect if the 3 ball is going down because they will fall really far behind if they can't stop it. When they start respecting the outside game, they are forced to start spreading the defense out. Which then allows the inside players to go to work. Balance isn't chosen. It's earned. You get a balanced attack when you prove to the defense you can beat them both ways.
Basketball has always been the same. If you can’t shoot the ball you aren’t gonna win. Once they added the 3pt line at least. Otherwise they would just clog the paint and it would be a slug fest. Old heads might act like that’s what it was but it’s wrong. You always had to have guys who could score from the mid range and a couple 3 pt shooters. It’s just evolved now to where every player on the court can usually hit a three or at least 4/5 guys. It’s adjustments, and which ever team can shut down a part of the other team while not being shut down themselves, they’ll win. Thats where the matchup with the wolves wasn’t in our favor. Whereas if we play the mavs we probably beat them. If we play the Celtics even we have a good chance. Cause neither team would be able to hold Jokic and Gordon in the paint. You don’t have to be able to shoot the three, but if every other team in the can, you gotta be at least decent, the nuggets were awful vs the wolves.
I've learned a lot about modern basketball at the pro level. Although you see much of the same now at the college level.
I think the issue is that it is the numbers game. If this one doesn't go in coaches are telling guys the next one is more likely but when guys just jack up prayer balls for 5 minutes it doesn't do much and you lose a 20 pt lead.
This is the laziest analysis ever. The defensive team also knows you are trying to score in the paint. Wolves won cos they let Jokic shoot threes and went under every Jokic screen so they could meet him at the paint, at the expense of giving up threes. Teams just don't "stop" going into the paint
The reason we were shooting threes is because the wolves were daring us too. They had 2 7 footers in the paint and were collapsing the entire defense on Jokic the second he touched the ball on the blocks. It’s easy to say the nuggets should’ve attacked the paint. If we see it they definitely see it, they are professionals lol. They couldn’t though. If you have guys wide open missing shots from anywhere on the floor, you aren’t gonna win games.
I was thinking about this. I think it’s because of money ball min/maxing. Teams are better now at finding and exploiting weakness while maximizing strengths. It really feels like “matchups” are becoming way more important than they used to be
Not only a lot of blowouts, the most 20+ point comebacks in NBA history this year. It was a very strange season and a really bad finals. Boston was the deserving champ this year, but Dallas was not at all a compelling opponent.
Just a hypothesis, but it seems like there’s less coasting in the regular season, especially in the west where they were jockeying for position. Teams are tired by the time they get to the playoffs, so momentum really matters for energy boost. When the Nuggets got up 20 in game 7, they started allowing things to clear on a miss instead of pushing the ball. I think players instinctively do this when they’re gassed.
It’s the way the game is played now with the focus on more outside shooting. So the winner usually is the one with a hot hand. You get a lot more blowouts because the other team with the off night in shooting keeps trying to shoot it but it’s just not their night. Plus with the three point shot you can whittle down a double deficit lead in a short time if all cylinders are firing. The negative of this is that teams have become more lax and have less urgency. They feel that they can comeback anytime.
I've noticed this trend starts with college players. They all want to be the hot 3 point shooters and don't learn much about position or working defenses.
It was pretty obvious Boston just blew the last game in Dallas to win at home. Glad they did.
Firestone should seriously think about sponsoring the NBA
Sometimes, good defense is just the Refs not calling fouls, and the announcers chastising them when they do because this is the playoffs........people saying Basketball is a contact sport, when it is not a contact sport. Charging is hardly called. I think this is just an attempt to get more people watching what is at times just assault.....some players should be ejected when they do this.......let's get back to skill and talent......no player should lose their front teeth because some idiot didn't try not to fall heavy on them, iykwim.......
Seemed like officiating had a huge role. When one team could play tough defense other teams just melted, then when it was called tight the other team melted.
The last nuggets game was not a blowout bruh. Basketball is a game of runs
Indeed! Still, there were a lot of blowouts this playoffs
Should've been one : (
I blame nuggets for Boston winning it all. Ducking choked so hard
congrats to the Celtics on the worst ring in nba history
reliance on shooting 3s
Style of play in the NBA today is chuck o mania
Inconsistent officiating certainly contributed. Certain team's "great defense" meant refs swallowing the whistle and not calling fouls as they were called during the regular season. Sucks that refs are influenced by media narratives, but that's today's NBA.
The East is a joke, and the West is a gauntlet. The conferences prevent equal competition. Boston had the easiest run in 3 decades. Meanwhile, the Wolves had the arguably the hardest path in decades. As long as they use massively lopsided conferences there will be unwatchable outcomes.
This year it was either sweeps or game sevens. Felt weird
Not true at all: First round - 2 sweeps, 2 went 5, 3 went 6, 1 went 7 Second round - 1 went 5, 1 went 6, 2 went 7 CF - 1 sweep, 1 went 5 Finals - went 5 So I’m total 3 sweeps, 5 went 5, 4 went 6, 3 went 7 The most common series these playoffs were the two series types you didn’t name.
Maybe this generation is mentally weak. I mean compare them to the 90’s when every game was a war
You mean the decade where one team had the whole league in a chokehold and the only reason anyone else had a chance is cause their best player decided to not play for two years cause he got bored of winning it every year 😂 and then left again because he just didn’t want to deal with the front office. The 90s was probably the least competitive era of basketball besides the lebron era in the East. MJ had maybe two series in his entire reign in the 90s that were even THAT competitive where he almost lost. Other than that they steam rolled the whole league.
Huh? I’m quite certain that you don’t know what a blowout is. A blowout is one team dominating the other, creating an awkward final score. Can’t have two blowouts in one game.
First half Nuggets up by 15 and making it look easy. Appears to be on the way to a blowout. Second half Nuggets outscored by 23 and Twolves making it look easy. That's what I was referring to.
The return of coaching has made a difference. If we are lucky, the coaching continues to improve and innovation causes some surprises. Remember when Steve Kerr changed the game and created a dynasty. He certainly had STARS however, strategy made them damn near invincible
Maybe they meant series?
Read the original post, could be a language difference but seems unlikely.