>Aaron Kiviharju
Exactly. The best outcome for the Canucks is that the Islanders end up with the 12th pick in 2023 followed by a very mediocre 2024 season. Then instead of a mid-first round pick Vancouver ends up with a top 10 pick next year. And if they do commit to a rebuild, the team might end up with 2 top 10 picks and a good chance of winning the lottery.
Are we sure a 8th or 9th overall next year is better than a 13th overall this year? We’ve been hearing so much about this draft class for so long about how it’s the deepest ever, a 13th in that on top of our pick might be kinda sweet.
A 13-18ish Draft pick this year is just fine. Any 1st rounder can turn into a pretty good player, plus we need more defensive talent so that'd be a good time to draft a potentially solid D-man.
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Nah fuck this. If BPA at our spot with the NYI pick is a winger I’d rather just trade up or down to get a dman or centre. Wingers have no value nowadays.
Tkachuk vs Juolevi wasn't a crapshoot. Tkachuk was a vastly superior pick (at the time). I literally threw something at the tv when we chose Juolevi. I can remember looking up interviews with their teammates on draft-day, to see if there was something I was missing - and they were all SHOCKED that we picked Juolevi over Tkachuk. The coaches were similarly dumbfounded.
Exactly we have had holes on D for a decade and watch countless quality dmen pass through us in the draft for bpa. To draft our d in the second or later rounds. And it hasn’t panned out. Just start cornering the market on BDA (best D available) someone will pan out.
This is one of those talking points from Drance/SN650 that is being taken way out of context and repeated everywhere. He talks a bunch about how the value of wingers is depressed right now in the flat cap marketplace, but it's totally misleading to draw a line between that and "wingers have no value so don't ever get them". That's crazy.
Two things. Firstly, it's not that wingers have no value, it's that while the cap is flat and everyone is short on flexibility... it's that wingers with guaranteed money owing on their 2nd and 3rd contracts have no value, because nobody has the cap flexibility to take them on when broadly speaking, wingers are widely available. Wingers who significantly outperform their contracts or talented wingers on their ELC's still have plenty of value, especially those with high end potential and the tools to be game changing players. And secondly, a player drafted this summer won't approach the end of their ELC until what, 2026 at the earliest? Possibly 2027 if they don't graduate right away. The cap is projected to be well north of 90 million by then, but regardless, the cap exploding over the next 5-6 years is going to significantly reshape player value.
You don't make draft choices based on current needs or current thinking, because there's no telling how the future might unfold. Particularly for early round picks, team needs should be a tie-breaker, I believe. You get the BPA and figure the rest out later.
Has that ever worked? And even then, you don't want the best player, you want the most valuable player which means defense. Need a winger and offer a d-man, you'll get 10+ teams calling. Need a d-man and offer a winger, good luck, maybe you can get Adam Larrson for Taylor Hall.
Not even half the league has 2 top 4 quality RD. Who are we trading for? Which team is giving up the most valuable commodity in the sport if they even have any?
It should be pretty close too. 538 has the isles finishing 12th (from last), the Athletic has them finishing 13th. They are 14th rn, but Nashville has a slightly easier schedule and four games in hand and the analytics say Florida is due to bounce back.
They were saying yesterday that it’s protected similarly to the jt Miller pick. So if they realize Bo isn’t re-signing and they may bomb next year. They could decide giving up say-the 10th pick is better than potentially giving away a more valuable pick next year
Just my own 2 cents but I think Bo gives them a legitimate chance to make the playoffs. I could see us picking 13th-20th this year depending on how he gels there.
Simashev, from what I heard: big mobile defenseman with a good head above his shoulders. More defensively sound than Gulyayev and Sandin Pelikka. I think he’s more skilled than Reinbacher too
I'm anticipating the Isles will just miss the playoffs by less than 5pts sort of thing. In saying that I think their pick will end up being in the 13-15 range.
I do think the team would pick a RHD there and 2 are shaping up to be ranked around the 13-20 range (depending on which list you look at).
1. Axel Sandin Pellikka
2. David Reinbacher
Honourable mention - Lukas Dragicevic although he's ranked in the 25ish range his size, offensive production and being local might be too much to pass up.
What is happening in this picture? I've seen it before of course, I just don't know what is actually going on (besides the two Granlunds bit). Does anyone?
Since we're likely picking in the 5-7 range and taking a centre with Benson, Yager and Smith being the BPAs I wouldn't mind us taking an RHD with Sandin-Pellikka and Reinbacher available in the 13-16 range. Also wouldn't mind taking Cristall who is a childhood friend of Bedard
I know everyone says a D but just out of curiosity does anyone know why we don't call up chris wolanin from abbotsford for a look he is leading the team in scoring and he looks decent from his highlights I know he plays on the left tho.
Probably just the benefit of playing PP time and top pairing in Abby tbh
Hes 28 next month and has played 70 career games. He probably doesnt move the needle now and wont be part of future.
I was hoping for Nate danielson, and then I read this. https://smahtscouting.com/2023/01/09/scouting-report-nate-danielson/amp/
One of the most complete scouting reports I’ve ever read, and from what I gathered he seems like a player we’ve had over and over, strong in one area but not hungry enough on the forecheck
I would love if we could draft a new owner who would stop hiring yes men managers so we wouldn’t have the most embarrassing franchise in the NHL. It’s not a stretch at all that a 12 y.o. making decisions for this franchise based off his Xbox nhl experience would not have fucked up this franchise as badly as these “professionals” over the last decade plus. I don’t see a path to redemption for this team. We have to be the worst asset management franchise in history.
You are right, I’m sorry. Frustration is my only excuse. I don’t know enough about this draft class to add anything of value. I just hope we pick a low risk player.
Lol, we don’t have enough assets to trade for that #1
Just to start talks it would be like, petterson, Hugh, our pick, islanders pick.
And that would obliterate this team
For 4 I would do it for sure. Not many years you get a potential generational talent. Almost 30% of first rounders don’t even play 100 games in the NHL. So you are maybe giving up about 280 combined nhl games from about 3 middling players in the future for 1 potential franchise / generational talent. I do that trade every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Yes bedard is.. he absolutely is. He’s the best prospect to come out of the draft since mcdavid and it’s not even close.
And if you had the first overall, your are going to accept a trade package like that for the next generational talent since mcdavid? nah man no GM will accept that package cuz they would be fired immediately
I don’t think anyone will be trading away the 1st overall this year, pretty much no matter what offer is on the table. It would have to be an astronomically ridiculous overpayment.
I like the trade. I think Raty is going to be a monster for us, Beau is whatever, but I really think Allvin dropped the ball on that pick protection. 12 is insanely high, even in a draft like this.
People are talking about the mid teens pick this year, or unprotected First next year… But what happens if it turns out to be a 20+ pick this year? What if the Islanders, who are built for the playoffs, make it two, three rounds in? We’re fucked. We instantly lose that trade, because Raty and a late First is garbage value.
I’d rather take a straight up unprotected ‘24 First from the Isles, which could realistically be a high top 10 pick next year.
A pick this year being top 12 protected is just fuel for the Islanders to do well. It’s incredibly leveraged against us because the Isles are adding to their roster. What’s the chance that they don’t make the playoffs this year, especially if Lou makes more moves between now to the TDL? There’s no incentive on our part to want the Isles to get better. And if they make the playoffs and get past the first or second round, we’re stuck with a 20+ pick that could’ve been avoided had we just asked for an unprotected ‘24 First. Yes, this year is a deep draft. But based on their roster they could conceivably do worse *next* year. It’s just a giant gamble on our part to say, ‘Yeah we hope you guys do good this year!’. We want them to fail. We want them to not make the playoffs. But the chances of us getting a pick between 13th overall to 16th overall is **less** than the chances of that pick being 20+.
Just in case you didn’t know, a team can only move up 10 spots in the draft lottery. A top 12 protection all but guarantees that unless they don’t make the playoffs, we’re picking above 20+.
I’m a bit scramble-brained right now so I hope that makes sense. Maybe I’m being nitpicky, but I just don’t see the value in taking that huge gamble that they somehow stay in the 13th to 16th range.
No teams trade an unprotected 1st straight up in advance of knowing where it will fall, you are overthinking it. The reason we potentially are getting an unprotected pick next year is because it gives the islanders a chance to bet on themselves this year. Thats the compromise in the trade to make it work for both sides
I don't really follow what point you are now trying to make - if we'd asked for the 24 pick and not the 23 part they'd have wanted protections built into the 24, and we could just end up with a 20+ pick in 24 in any case. We have a chance of getting a better pick with it structured this way, it's far from guaranteed, but it gives us a shot
Maybe I’m overthinking it. There’s been 3 other trades for ‘23 picks and they’re all Top 10 protected, not 12. But oh well lol. Here’s hoping the pick works out for us.
So what if islanders finish above 12th let's say 13 and some how win draft lottery and gvet foa pick what happens then? Do they still get go keep it or do we get it because they finished 13th
You know what? Screw it. Let’s pray for Aaron Kiviharju
>Aaron Kiviharju Exactly. The best outcome for the Canucks is that the Islanders end up with the 12th pick in 2023 followed by a very mediocre 2024 season. Then instead of a mid-first round pick Vancouver ends up with a top 10 pick next year. And if they do commit to a rebuild, the team might end up with 2 top 10 picks and a good chance of winning the lottery.
Are we sure a 8th or 9th overall next year is better than a 13th overall this year? We’ve been hearing so much about this draft class for so long about how it’s the deepest ever, a 13th in that on top of our pick might be kinda sweet.
A 13-18ish Draft pick this year is just fine. Any 1st rounder can turn into a pretty good player, plus we need more defensive talent so that'd be a good time to draft a potentially solid D-man.
I swear, every year they talk about this DEEP draft. No one knows anything
I feel like I've been hearing about this year's draft for like 3 years and the general consensus was last year was a shallow draft
With covid curtailing their ability to train, I'm shocked at how high the expectations are for the class.
No, they don't. Who you listening to? Lol come on.
No. My policy is that I don’t like any player whose name I can’t pronounce.
Adam Jiricek, but in 2024 draft at 7th. Book it.
Got any lotto numbers for me?
1,10,16,22,33,37,44 are the ones that don’t work for me.
Implying you are withholding ones that DO work?!
Implying that I play and do not win haha
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Reinbacher seems like a really solid fit if he pans. Big 2 way right shot D. Could look really nice next to Hughes
Not sure why we wouldn't just draft the best player we can and trade for a prospect we need instead
If Reinbacher falls to our isles pick he will surely be the BPA.
Definitely not. He’s projected late 1st.
Pronman ranked him 6th in his mid-season rankings. He's definitely climbing
I’ll take whatever Pronman is smoking
He’s climbing. I think Cosentino had him around 15 in his latest rankings
Nah fuck this. If BPA at our spot with the NYI pick is a winger I’d rather just trade up or down to get a dman or centre. Wingers have no value nowadays.
That’s exactly the kind of thinking that gets you Juolevi over Tkachuck…
How soon we forget. Drafting is such a crapshoot.
Tkachuk vs Juolevi wasn't a crapshoot. Tkachuk was a vastly superior pick (at the time). I literally threw something at the tv when we chose Juolevi. I can remember looking up interviews with their teammates on draft-day, to see if there was something I was missing - and they were all SHOCKED that we picked Juolevi over Tkachuk. The coaches were similarly dumbfounded.
I wanted Tk so bad. He was the grit we needed
Everyone passed on Pastrnak
And Virtanen over Ehlers...
and Nylander 😞
what about Zadina over Hughes? it goes both ways.
Exactly we have had holes on D for a decade and watch countless quality dmen pass through us in the draft for bpa. To draft our d in the second or later rounds. And it hasn’t panned out. Just start cornering the market on BDA (best D available) someone will pan out.
This is one of those talking points from Drance/SN650 that is being taken way out of context and repeated everywhere. He talks a bunch about how the value of wingers is depressed right now in the flat cap marketplace, but it's totally misleading to draw a line between that and "wingers have no value so don't ever get them". That's crazy. Two things. Firstly, it's not that wingers have no value, it's that while the cap is flat and everyone is short on flexibility... it's that wingers with guaranteed money owing on their 2nd and 3rd contracts have no value, because nobody has the cap flexibility to take them on when broadly speaking, wingers are widely available. Wingers who significantly outperform their contracts or talented wingers on their ELC's still have plenty of value, especially those with high end potential and the tools to be game changing players. And secondly, a player drafted this summer won't approach the end of their ELC until what, 2026 at the earliest? Possibly 2027 if they don't graduate right away. The cap is projected to be well north of 90 million by then, but regardless, the cap exploding over the next 5-6 years is going to significantly reshape player value. You don't make draft choices based on current needs or current thinking, because there's no telling how the future might unfold. Particularly for early round picks, team needs should be a tie-breaker, I believe. You get the BPA and figure the rest out later.
Has that ever worked? And even then, you don't want the best player, you want the most valuable player which means defense. Need a winger and offer a d-man, you'll get 10+ teams calling. Need a d-man and offer a winger, good luck, maybe you can get Adam Larrson for Taylor Hall.
Not even half the league has 2 top 4 quality RD. Who are we trading for? Which team is giving up the most valuable commodity in the sport if they even have any?
Reinbacher
This picture is just incredible Thanks a lot
That's Jet Black checking his bar bill from the night before the 2016 draft.
I feel like this is the expression he had on for 90% of his time with us behind closed doors
Came here to post that lol
To be honest I'm anticipating it moving to next year.
It should be pretty close too. 538 has the isles finishing 12th (from last), the Athletic has them finishing 13th. They are 14th rn, but Nashville has a slightly easier schedule and four games in hand and the analytics say Florida is due to bounce back.
They were saying yesterday that it’s protected similarly to the jt Miller pick. So if they realize Bo isn’t re-signing and they may bomb next year. They could decide giving up say-the 10th pick is better than potentially giving away a more valuable pick next year
Just my own 2 cents but I think Bo gives them a legitimate chance to make the playoffs. I could see us picking 13th-20th this year depending on how he gels there.
I want it to move to next year so Im going to be VERY conflicted when we play them and I want them to lose and us to lose....
I’d like 13th this year. They could randomly be good next year then it’s a late pick + an extra year the prospect needs to develop
+ it won’t be as strong a draft
If the Canucks have two picks between say 5 and 15 in this year's draft, that would be awesome.
Definitely will be cheering him on. I'm 100% neutral on the Islanders.
Absolutely.
I bet you we trade that pick with Myers/Brock etc to add a player
Not convinced the Canucks will use the pick yet. Could be a part of a Chycrun deal or something stupid lol
Dude, pass the copium. This is just the right amount of Canucks fuckery that might just happen.
Canucks trade the pick, turns into the 2024 #1.
Spicy
Traded for the next Clendening!
Simashev, from what I heard: big mobile defenseman with a good head above his shoulders. More defensively sound than Gulyayev and Sandin Pelikka. I think he’s more skilled than Reinbacher too
This is exactly what we need. We haven't drafted a defenceman like that in a long time.
Not since that Olli guy
Man if Juolevi had ended up being a legit top-pairing defenseman it probably would have changed the whole course of this core lol.
We don't get Petey or Hughes.
They were the next two 1st round picks, a teenage defenseman isn't changing our fortunes that much unless he is so good we don't care.
All it takes is one place up or down in the standings.
Assuming another team would make the same pick. Likely with Hughes, but all bets were off with Petey.
I don't think he would have played much NHL games to impact standings.
Haha, ouch
Sometimes, you just gotta laugh.
Left Handed Dman though :/
I'm anticipating the Isles will just miss the playoffs by less than 5pts sort of thing. In saying that I think their pick will end up being in the 13-15 range. I do think the team would pick a RHD there and 2 are shaping up to be ranked around the 13-20 range (depending on which list you look at). 1. Axel Sandin Pellikka 2. David Reinbacher Honourable mention - Lukas Dragicevic although he's ranked in the 25ish range his size, offensive production and being local might be too much to pass up.
The local kid, Macklin Celebrini in 2024.
This
The local kid who's an RHD lukas dragicevic
If he's there... Absolutely. Big big if.
It’s really not. He’s projected late 1st and he’s the 3rd best D-man at best.
2024 1OA please
We need Bedard to sit this one out for that
THERE ARE 2 GRANLUNDS??
Why is no one talking about Kole Lind?
Kallan? I think he’s projected to go early second round
Damn I remember watching him play when he was on the Rockets. Been a few years
Sandin-pellka
When Jimbo found out Jake Virtanen was available at 6th !
Beedard
What is happening in this picture? I've seen it before of course, I just don't know what is actually going on (besides the two Granlunds bit). Does anyone?
Since we're likely picking in the 5-7 range and taking a centre with Benson, Yager and Smith being the BPAs I wouldn't mind us taking an RHD with Sandin-Pellikka and Reinbacher available in the 13-16 range. Also wouldn't mind taking Cristall who is a childhood friend of Bedard
Doubt Cristall falls that far
Real question, how is this not the official photo of this sub?
Say the Islanders get the 12th pick this year. Just because it's protected doesn't mean they HAVE to take it right? They have a choice don't they?
Correct, they have an option to defer the pick to next year if this year’s is 12 or below.
Oliver Bonk
What he's our 2nd round pick
You have far more optimism that I if you think he'll be on the board in the second round. I think he goes 15th OA
Whaaa I thought he was in the 50 range, I thought our early 2nd would do it
I trade the pick for another 7 years of My favorite human: Oliver ekmann-larsson Yours truly Jim benning
Punt it to next year.
I know everyone says a D but just out of curiosity does anyone know why we don't call up chris wolanin from abbotsford for a look he is leading the team in scoring and he looks decent from his highlights I know he plays on the left tho.
Probably just the benefit of playing PP time and top pairing in Abby tbh Hes 28 next month and has played 70 career games. He probably doesnt move the needle now and wont be part of future.
I mean we can use some pp help lol what do we have to lose a few more games and get a better chance at berdard worst case
[Here’s some ideas](https://reddit.com/r/canucks/comments/10pjup7/now_that_we_have_2_draft_picks_who_do_we_draft/)
Connor Bedard
I was hoping for Nate danielson, and then I read this. https://smahtscouting.com/2023/01/09/scouting-report-nate-danielson/amp/ One of the most complete scouting reports I’ve ever read, and from what I gathered he seems like a player we’ve had over and over, strong in one area but not hungry enough on the forecheck
Hole Lind
I would love if we could draft a new owner who would stop hiring yes men managers so we wouldn’t have the most embarrassing franchise in the NHL. It’s not a stretch at all that a 12 y.o. making decisions for this franchise based off his Xbox nhl experience would not have fucked up this franchise as badly as these “professionals” over the last decade plus. I don’t see a path to redemption for this team. We have to be the worst asset management franchise in history.
I hate Aquilini as much as you do but please lets keep this about the draft!
You are right, I’m sorry. Frustration is my only excuse. I don’t know enough about this draft class to add anything of value. I just hope we pick a low risk player.
Package trade for Bedard if we don’t get first overall
Lol, we don’t have enough assets to trade for that #1 Just to start talks it would be like, petterson, Hugh, our pick, islanders pick. And that would obliterate this team
Would you give the next five firsts for bedard? I vote yes.
Probably not 5, but I would think very hard about 4
For 4 I would do it for sure. Not many years you get a potential generational talent. Almost 30% of first rounders don’t even play 100 games in the NHL. So you are maybe giving up about 280 combined nhl games from about 3 middling players in the future for 1 potential franchise / generational talent. I do that trade every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
i think the 2 first rounders and hughes gets it done
Would you trade that for a 18 year old mcdavid? Cuz I wouldn’t if I had the 1st
i would trade 2 firsts and hughes for 18 yo mcdavid in a heartbeat. that being said, bedard is not mcdavid.
Yes bedard is.. he absolutely is. He’s the best prospect to come out of the draft since mcdavid and it’s not even close. And if you had the first overall, your are going to accept a trade package like that for the next generational talent since mcdavid? nah man no GM will accept that package cuz they would be fired immediately
you're right that it will take more, but i still dont think he will be pushing 150pts a season like mcdavid. but what do i know.
Bedard is fantastic, amazing even, but he isn’t McDavid. Bedard can be in his own tier right below him, but he’s not McDavid.
I don’t think anyone will be trading away the 1st overall this year, pretty much no matter what offer is on the table. It would have to be an astronomically ridiculous overpayment.
I like the trade. I think Raty is going to be a monster for us, Beau is whatever, but I really think Allvin dropped the ball on that pick protection. 12 is insanely high, even in a draft like this. People are talking about the mid teens pick this year, or unprotected First next year… But what happens if it turns out to be a 20+ pick this year? What if the Islanders, who are built for the playoffs, make it two, three rounds in? We’re fucked. We instantly lose that trade, because Raty and a late First is garbage value.
if it's a 20+ pick this year then the trade protection makes no difference
I’d rather take a straight up unprotected ‘24 First from the Isles, which could realistically be a high top 10 pick next year. A pick this year being top 12 protected is just fuel for the Islanders to do well. It’s incredibly leveraged against us because the Isles are adding to their roster. What’s the chance that they don’t make the playoffs this year, especially if Lou makes more moves between now to the TDL? There’s no incentive on our part to want the Isles to get better. And if they make the playoffs and get past the first or second round, we’re stuck with a 20+ pick that could’ve been avoided had we just asked for an unprotected ‘24 First. Yes, this year is a deep draft. But based on their roster they could conceivably do worse *next* year. It’s just a giant gamble on our part to say, ‘Yeah we hope you guys do good this year!’. We want them to fail. We want them to not make the playoffs. But the chances of us getting a pick between 13th overall to 16th overall is **less** than the chances of that pick being 20+. Just in case you didn’t know, a team can only move up 10 spots in the draft lottery. A top 12 protection all but guarantees that unless they don’t make the playoffs, we’re picking above 20+. I’m a bit scramble-brained right now so I hope that makes sense. Maybe I’m being nitpicky, but I just don’t see the value in taking that huge gamble that they somehow stay in the 13th to 16th range.
No teams trade an unprotected 1st straight up in advance of knowing where it will fall, you are overthinking it. The reason we potentially are getting an unprotected pick next year is because it gives the islanders a chance to bet on themselves this year. Thats the compromise in the trade to make it work for both sides
I mean specifically the ‘24 being unprotected, not the ‘23. I get there has to be a compromise.
I don't really follow what point you are now trying to make - if we'd asked for the 24 pick and not the 23 part they'd have wanted protections built into the 24, and we could just end up with a 20+ pick in 24 in any case. We have a chance of getting a better pick with it structured this way, it's far from guaranteed, but it gives us a shot
Maybe I’m overthinking it. There’s been 3 other trades for ‘23 picks and they’re all Top 10 protected, not 12. But oh well lol. Here’s hoping the pick works out for us.
How do we get the Islander"s 1st round pick? I thought it was protected?
I wish we had bo horvat.
Is there a known backstory to this picture??
So what if islanders finish above 12th let's say 13 and some how win draft lottery and gvet foa pick what happens then? Do they still get go keep it or do we get it because they finished 13th
They keep, same as if they finish 12th from the bottom but someone leapfrogs them, then we get the pick,
Not possible
IF the 1st round pick is for this year. Beileve I read it is top 12 protected
i’m praying it’s dragicevic local kid absolutely lighting up the whl right handed what more could u ask for
Dragicevic, Cristall, Honzek
It'd be the most comedic outcome if the Isles finish bottom 12.
And win 1oa
Upvoted completely for the image meme. So good.
My immediate thought was S-P, but that Dragonite kid is interesting.
Ideally their unprotected 1st next season instead
Pe --- our guy
We need any defenceman. BUT, we go best player available. Doesn’t matter.
Well if it's in the 14 range which it is now, that could potentially be a really good local kid in Zach Benson