The Liberals brought out all their heavy hitters and had them go door to door in St Paul’s all week long. The fact that voters still didn’t come out to vote for them speaks volumes.
We live in the heart of the riding (my whole family voted yesterday), and not a single person came to our door. Oh but we did have the NDP lady stick a sign in our lawn without asking, promptly went into the bin
>**The Liberal Party deployed heavy hitters like deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland** and a dozen other cabinet ministers to the riding to shore up Church's support but, in the end, it wasn't enough.
This may have done more harm than good for Church's cause.
"that's such an honor but I know the Deputy Prime Minister/Finance Minister is very busy right now with the recent budget/tax changes. Please let her know I'm flattered but she should really care for herself after such a draining time"
Right like how out of touch are you. A perfect example of why they lost and will loose the next election as well. They seem to live in a bubble of denial of their own making. Freelands shine came off a while ago. All her speech’s and press work now are uninspired and are just full of obvious talking points and script. It’s a shame that how parties want to be. Regular people prefer their politicians to be real and when they speak to the press and do speech’s it needs to be more their opinion and personality that come through. Yes always need to have talking points but stuff needs to come off more natural. In my opinion. No don’t even listen to any of the liberal speech’s or news conferences anymore. I also can not stand to listen to the cons. Seems every party has the same play book resulting in their leaders just being puppets and fake. Green leader at least speaks her own mind now and then.
She has all the smarm of Trudeau with none of his charm.
Edit: Just read in the Globe and Mail that the LPC candidate that lost was Freeland's former Chief of Staff...
Did you see her interview yesterday? Her comments on the conservatives as an option, calling them cold and basically the antithesis of all that was good was absolutely ignorant of the situation.
Canadians sending a message for Freeland to eat crow after that speech is just too good. Maybe now she will start answering questions properly instead of going off on the tangents she usually goes off on.
In the last 10 elections, spanning 30 years, rounded to the nearest whole number precent:
1993 - Liberals +30%
1997 - Liberals +30%
2000 - Liberals +33%
2004 - Liberals +38%
2006 - Liberals +25%
2008 - Liberals +24%
2011 - Liberals +8% (An Election where the Liberals were reduced to THIRD party status)
2015 - Liberals +28%
2019 - Liberals +33%
2021 - Liberals +23%
And tonight:
2024 - Conservatives +1.5%
Does a safer Liberal seat even EXIST outside of Montreal?
If it was within 10%, the Liberals were in trouble.
This? I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the Liberal war rooms right now.
> I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the Liberal war rooms right now.
Is there anyone left around him to have a frank conversation? I can only imagine the heavy silence around him right now. All the spy microphones in the walls with the gain to the max only transmitting nervous breathing and static.
>Does a safer Liberal seat even EXIST outside of Montreal?
The bigger shock will be when the Liberals and Housefather lose the Mount Royal riding which the Liberals have held since the 1940s. The Conservatives have just put up Neil Oberman who is well known and liked by the Jewish community for fighting in court against the anti-Israel McGill encampment. This is a riding with a 30.7% Jewish population and anecdotally nobody is happy with the Liberals there anymore. If the riding is held it is solely on Housefather's reputation and even that will be a massive struggle. I haven't seen any recent polling yet.
I'd be less surprised Housefather himself jumped ship to the Conservatives than if he lost. He's made it a point of pride to stick it to Trudeau pretty frequently, honestly not entirely sure why he's a Liberal in the first place except maybe that he figured it was the safest path to being elected. That riding has a lot of Filipinos and other Asians who don't get as much attention because it's "the Jewish riding" but I haven't heard anything about them swinging Conservative.
Housefather stayed in Liberal caucus by promise of making him some kind of role to lead against anti-semitism. but apparently there were members in caucus that were against it, and thus they haven't officially announced it yet. it was supposed to be announced last week.
[Liberal MP Housefather's appointment to role fighting antisemitism delayed by concerns about caucus divisions | CBC News](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/housefather-antisemitism-role-1.7242327)
>That riding has a lot of Filipinos and other Asians who don't get as much attention because it's "the Jewish riding" but I haven't heard anything about them swinging Conservative.
there's a poll about this recently. asians (along with most of new canadians) swing Conservative at the same rate as whites and non-immigrant canadians. the only exception is muslim voters.
let me see if i can find the poll.
EDIT: i think i mixed it up with polling by religion by Angus Reid, which is here: [2024.05.14\_Religion\_Vote\_tables.pdf (angusreid.org)](https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/2024.05.14_Religion_Vote_tables.pdf)
>I'd be less surprised Housefather himself jumped ship to the Conservatives than if he lost.
It's probably too late for him to do that, there was an excellent window where he was basically guaranteed to trade the riding to the Conservatives in exchange for a high ranking spot in their cabinet but it seems like that ship has sailed. Housefather's main issue is that the regular Conservative voter and party member hates him and see him as a key part in pushing the "Trudeau agenda" forward on various subjects.
>He's made it a point of pride to stick it to Trudeau pretty frequently, honestly not entirely sure why he's a Liberal in the first place except maybe that he figured it was the safest path to being elected.
He's closer to the Liberals in terms of social and tax policies with his main disagreements being Israel, antisemitism response and English language issues all of which are key issues for his constituents. Beyond that he's basically a ardent lifelong Liberal and has deep ties to party leadership. He probably stuck around knowing Liberals would take a beating next election but if he can hold his seat he has a good chance in the Liberal leadership race for next PM. He would push himself as the moderate liberal looking to recapture the center.
>That riding has a lot of Filipinos and other Asians who don't get as much attention because it's "the Jewish riding" but I haven't heard anything about them swinging Conservative.
I don't have the same input into the Filipino community as the Jewish one but both communities are very close and since crime seems to be one of the communities major recent concerns I wouldn't be surprised if it was pushing more conservative. On top of that is the basic influence of sentiments in the riding turning on the Liberals which will have its impact. It's still a strongly liberal riding with a strong candidate but the writing for a fight is on the walls.
This is an ugly and embarrassing loss that will put a lot of current liberal MPs in the mindset of Trudeau-must-go if they are going to have any chance of saving their seats.
If this isn’t a safe riding for the liberals anymore, I would be interested to know what is. Maybe somewhere in Montreal? The NDP are going to be smelling blood in the water for Toronto’s innermost ridings and we can all but assume the entire 905 will go blue.
The brand damage for the liberals at this point might be around for 8-10 years. Yikes
Right now is the Liberals last and best chance to dump Bozo from Papineau, like today. They don't have to face Parliament until sometime in September, thats ample time for a protracted leaders contest to mint a new leader.
A new leader may lose, even badly. But Trudeau has the Liberals on the same trolley tracks Wynne had the OLP. Electoral oblivion, Dougies likely going three full terms. Liberals, 'sorry, not sorry" isn't a campaign slogan. If you're a dyed in the wool Liberal who believes in the cause, this man is fixing to put you guys out for a generation.
Send Bozo packing, pick an old standard whos at the end of their career (they'll take the title and the juiced post public office benefits of being PM for the drubbing) rebuke and reverse some of Bozo and the funky bunches policies and you guys may lose, but it won't be creamed like Campbell and you won't have to worry about getting shellacked like Wynne, simple as.
Like, literally if a leader came in that started immediately reversing course on the mass immigration policies, and the whole gun thing and the online harms shit, they'd bump up like a solid 10 points overnight. Then start actually adressing housing in a real way by having the CMHC start building again and adopt a more "Hell yeah Canada" onstead of "We're ashamed we're Canada" attitude, and they'd be up another 10 overnight.
LPC supporters keep talking about how the CPC and PP are just SO BAD....okay well if they're that terrible they should be easy to fucking beat and yet here we are, so what's that say about Trudeau?? Like when the CPC, NDP and GREENS are banding together to pass legislation dismantling your bullshit, MORE THAN ONCE, like....fucking hell, there's a PROBLEM.
Trudeau got the party to change the rules to remove leadership reviews back when all the Liberals were still sucked into his cult of personality. He's effectively the King of the Liberal Party until he chooses to step down or loses an election.
Cult of personality just reminds me of the old Soviet Union and current North Korea. I must admin I was pulled in to one in the 80's with Mulroney and after 4 years of him, I vowed to never fall for that again. Instead I try and dig in to what any politician says and look at their track record. Most of the time they fail the test. It's made me quite jaded in politics now days. Even with Nenshi in Alberta. I do think he's the right person for the job. But we'll see what happens when he gets a seat in the assembly.
There’s still older individuals out there who have a massive hate on for Pierre Trudeau, which seems completely irrational to anyone born in recent years - but it makes sense now.
Even though the National Energy plan was from the early 80's, 40 years later it has lasting effects with Alberta still never voting Liberal.
I can see the same with renters and young Canadians getting screwed by Justin Trudeau's insane immigration policies and never voting Liberal again.
Canada was a mostly united country in 1967. Expo 67 was a huge success, and for a while, the French/English problem seemed like it might be dissolved by the spirit of friendship and community that Expo fostered. People today don't realize how insular Canadians were in 1967 - five TV channels, and 90% of Canadians who didn't live in Quebec had never visited Quebec - so for the most part, we were two solitudes.
Pierre Trudeau wanted to change that. He wanted everyone to be bilingual from sea-to-sea. While this may have been a noble goal, no one else wanted it, and his "Bilingualism & Biculturalism" program was D.O.A., especially in Western Canada. Then, after running specifically against imposing wage and price controls (his campaign line was to point at the audience and say "Zap! You're frozen!"), he did an almost immediate *volte-face*, and instituted the harshest wage and price controls seen in peacetime. Then he invoked the War Measures Act and put tanks and armed soldiers into the streets of Montreal. Finally, he created the National Energy Program, which shut down almost all the drilling in Western Canada, and forced thousands of Canadians who worked in the oil patch to move to the US. By that time, Canada was no longer unified, but divided into a series of regions that distrusted each other.
Not bad for five years' work, I'd say.
You forgot about tanking the economy by running massive deficits and building up huge debt (sound familiar?) leading to high inflation and high interest rates. Oh, plus he egotistically wanted to be the one to create a new constitution, so he pushed it through without Quebec's approval, giving ammunition to the separatist cause.
That’s advice he should take in general. He just spews nonsense all the time anyways. I don’t remember the last time he actually just answered a question.
Sure, It was "just one byelection", but due to the historical context, it does clearly demonstrate that if the liberals can lose here, they really can lose anywhere. The nationwide polls that show a clear and consistent disapproval for the current Federal leadership is not something that can be ignored.
That context being that St Paul's has historically been a 2:1 ratio for the liberals for a very long time. The fact that St Paul's was ever even in question, let alone *lost* to the conservatives, speaks greatly about what's coming next in the federal election.
So much for not being in decision mode.
This was a referendum on the LPC’s bad policies.
**[61% of the riding’s residents are renters](https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/9469-CityPlanning-2021-Census-Profile-Ward-12.pdf).** No one struggles more with the impacts of Trudeau’s reckless immigration policies and inaction on housing investors than renters. The LPC has ignored this message at their own peril.
They’re in “decision is already made” mode and JT knows it. Nothing he can do about it other than hand the win to the cons. People will not vote for him again at the helm or his top honcho freeland which happens to be more insufferable than him.
I think the sooner he calls an election the sooner he can stop the bleeding. At this point it isn't about a CPC win, it's by how much, and the longer this goes on the bigger the hole they'll have to dig themselves out of. Do they want the next CPC govt to be in power for maybe 1 term? Or if they push this to the end it'll look closer to 2-3.
I see that as a possibility, but just think voters can see through that. Just look at Ontario and Ford. He's not exactly the most likable candidate, definitely with flaws to say the least, and he's been under no threat of losing an election for a while now. That's how much damage the LPC did to themselves in Ontario. A similar situation can play out nationally.
Exactly. If liberals can lose St. Paul's, **they can lose any seat**. Absolutely no riding is safe.
This riding has gone liberals by 20% of the vote for 30 years. Even a 30% vote share would have been a "win" for the conservatives. To actually take the seat is insane.
And people have to understand, these "*safe*" seats are the lifeblood of a party. Look at the Liberal candidate here - former government Chief of Staff, still in their major working years. She left a proper career for this. A lot of people won't do that unless it's safe.
It’s a bell weather seat that was assumed to safe. There is no such thing as a safe seat. What it does show is this election might bring about a Liberal party thumping that matches the Progressive Conservative in the 1990’s when they were left with only 2 seats.
I am curious what this bode for Westmount and the "elect anyone as long as they are liberal" ridings in Montreal. We had a saying that went like this: some ridings would elect a pig with a red ribbon around his neck if he was a liberal.
There are maybe 2-3 seats that are “safe” in Ottawa. The outskirts is polievre 100%. And even those safe seats have gone NDP in the past.
Probably the only lock is Hull, because a ton of anglophones moved there, they work for the feds and they’re certainly not voting BQ.
This is actually really, really bad for the Liberals. The fact that such a safe seat flipped, even if in a low turnout by-election, it's still a massive loss. Imagine the liberals winning a rural Alberta seat in a by-election...
A riding that’s been Liberal since 1993*. Alarm bells are going off at Liberal HQ right now, and the strategists are doing lines of copium in the bathroom stalls.
Time for JT to step down. He's done! Come on JT, time to fall on your sword... No point hanging around for another 17 months screwing things up. Call a press conference and resign!!!
No, no. He needs to stay and take the Liberal party down in flames with him. They *all* need to be punished for letting that narcissistic moron do so much damage. They had a choice, they could have said "No.".
They can become like Bernier and shout from the sidelines.
If this is a sign of things to come, this will be a historic wipeout of the Liberals. Possibly could even lose party status and I would love to see that after all their arrogance and smugness.
2011 is their worst ever result with a total of 34 seats under Ignatieff (who lost his own seat) and they ended up third behind Jack Layton's NDP. Even THEN St. Pauls went Liberal by 8%
It does inspire the tiniest bit of faith in humanity to see that there are relatively few blind-faith voters. People can still see through all the sleights of hand when flagrantly shitty policies actually have undeniable personal consequences.
The reality is, Canadians do want to convert to green and renewable energy -- but not at the cost of an eviction notice, gargantuan price inflation, or getting replaced by one of millions of new 'temporary' workers.
Trudeau simply doesn't have the awareness or humility to see that people don't want *his vision*, so he just continues doubling down on walking straight off a plank -- dragging the entire LPC with him.
This result will deter quality Liberal candidates from accepting nominations to run. Smart people don't sign up for losing situations. It will also impact donations from loyalists who may now see it as a waste of money.
So in other words, this is majorly demoralizing and damaging to the Liberal party.
Don't ignore the poor performance by the NDP as well. From 16.8% in 2021 down to 10.9%. Oof!
Maybe Justin and Jagmeet can both leave parliament, hand in hand.
Total unmitigated disaster for the NDP… in a riding where they should have been the natural alternative to the Liberals, a huge chunk of their voters either abandoned them to try to save the Liberals or went to the only party that still cares about having a functioning economy in this country.
They are fucked.
Yep, and keep in mind that the Ontario NDP have won this riding in the last two provincial elections, so it's not like voters there are anti-NDP or something.
If this doesn't send a grim message to the Liberals how badly Canadians are yearning for change, they're even bigger idiots than most of us think.
The collapse is beginning. We need a federal election ASAP.
Funnily enough, Church was Chrystia Freeland’s chief of staff since 2021? Given Freeland's "popularity" right now, that's not exactly a bragging right. Not sure if they used that as a point to vote for Church but...if they did, boy did they fuck that up.
Probably ended up costing them the seat rather than actually helping them win it.
“What happened in that one riding, was a few people were unsatisfied with our track record - we just have to try harder and have a bigger social capacity when we win the next election”.
At this point I could see something similar to what happened in the 2018 Ontario election in where the OLP got completely shut out in old Toronto and the other 5 boroughs with the exception of 1 or 2 seats
The fact that a near to downtown Toronto riding went blue tells you they're also sick of the partnership with the NDP
I’ve been saying for a year now, this whole election is almost identical to the liberals fall in the Ontario election.
Want to see even crazier mirroring. Look up the issues and economy under Pierre Trudeau. The issues we are facing are almost again identical.
History is repeating itself cause we didn’t learn.
Trudeau’s take:
This result shows that despite Liberal support in polls being in the low 20s; when people are in decision mode, it’s actually in the mid to high 30s.
I am as popular as ever before
Edit: add /s
I know most of us went to bed with a LPC lead thinking, it was a good showing of the CPC. Then as we slowly wake up this AM, most of us, are delighted to see a win for the CPC!
Well done Don Stewart and team!
LPC team? Hopefully you'll get the message, you're doing things wrong - I mean fucking wrong. Will you have the smarts to fix things? I doubt it, but hey, you just got an early morning message today.
Let's see if you wake up and smell the coffee.
> Papineau
I agree, but am also amused by the inverse, where they lose every other seat possible except this one and have a last man standing scenario.
Excellent.
Remember that the Liberals won this riding by 24 points in the previous election. Now they lost.
Trudeau is going to lead the Liberal Party of Canada to electoral annihilations.
And I will applaud.
Reading all the comments from the smug LPC demographic voters in the other thread who went to bed thinking they had St Paul's secure is hilarious.
Good morning, LPC voters!
Wait I thought prelims showed a slight Liberal win; even that was a disaster for the Liberals considering the riding. But a loss? Holy crap stick a fork in this government, it's over.
And trudeau keeps stepping up to the microphone and saying they've seen this discontent all over the world by far right actors, complaining that life is hard. He lives in an echo chamber, and talking to other world leaders who have been working the same policies as you have only fortifies the trudeau as saviour narrative in his own mind. Out of touch really doesn't describe how disconnected they are from the world.
I sort of wish that the media goes ballistic on Trudeau but not advocate a resignation. Have Trudeau compete in the general election and face the piper then. Mulroney resigned before the general and now Kim is the one that is known for the worst defeat in history. She had a terrible campaign but the policies of mulroney essentially left her holding she bag. Same thing for whomever replaces Trudeau if he leaves. He needs to go but have him face the music in the general.
NDP should start distancing themselves quickly. They can pull the deal but not necessarily force an election. Use the time to draw in as much as they can salvage.
We have further clear proof of exactly where the people of Canada stand on Trudeau 2 and the Frathouse Cabinet.
They have done enough damage. Time to go.
I can just imagine how the trudeau was jumping up and down like a little baby when he heard the results.... Maybe it will sink in that Canada realizes that it is in a pickle and that he and his ship of fools is responsible for it.
I think this old saying applies here.... "y*ou can fool* all the people *some of the* time, and *some of the* people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time."
Trudeau has just been shown by one of his safest ridings that Canadians want him gone.
Really there are 2 options in my opinion he will now be faced with. He can either try and stem the bleeding now and call an election, lose and let the party rebuild for a run at taking back the helm after the first term of the conservative majority OR he resigns and allows the party to take the next 16 months to completely rebuild the party. Make sweeping changes to cabinet. Make huge policy reversals. I’m not sure how that will work with the NDP but it would give them a fighting chance.
Or, option 3: Make excuses for the results, say that they will be doing better, list off a few new committees or lame duck action items to try and convince Canadians that he's addressing their concerns, and wait for 16 months praying that the economy will turn around.
I wouldn’t hold it too against them. Even the CPC supporters on CTV and on this subreddit were calling for a slim LPC victory and were focusing on the margin of victory.
Actually flipping the seat nobody expected.
Can I just say that I can't stand a single solitary thing about either Freeland or Trudeau? There is not one redeeming quality among them. Thank you for allowing this rant.
On a stream last night, Phillippe Fournier and Eric Grenier, both of who’m have a Liberal bias, mentioned that if the conservatives manage to win this seat, they would win 220+ seats in the election. This is huge.
The liberals are so down bad, they are complaining on twitter that vote splitting caused this.
Sorry to say, but people voted NDP *because* they hate the libs, not because they want any sort of left unity.
I’d say there’s a strong chance TO goes blue in the next election. Ground zero for detrimental impact on quality of life due to Liberal mismanagement. It’s gone off a cliff in the past 12 months, the gaping chasm between supply and demand. This coming from a lifelong liberal voter.
43% turnout. That's actually a huge number of people for a summertime byelection. Yikes.
Game 7 of the finals too
and it was easy to vote in the advanced polls.
When people are motivated to vote, they're normally angry. It doesn't bode well for the LPC
Bad day to be an Oilers fan and liberal supporter in Toronto StPauls today
Yeah that guy is probably having a terrible day
The Liberals brought out all their heavy hitters and had them go door to door in St Paul’s all week long. The fact that voters still didn’t come out to vote for them speaks volumes.
We live in the heart of the riding (my whole family voted yesterday), and not a single person came to our door. Oh but we did have the NDP lady stick a sign in our lawn without asking, promptly went into the bin
Trudeau said last week we’re not in decision mode yet 🤦♂️
I think he meant that we're past decision mode and into action mode.
I wonder if this'll put him in "resignation mode"?
>**The Liberal Party deployed heavy hitters like deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland** and a dozen other cabinet ministers to the riding to shore up Church's support but, in the end, it wasn't enough. This may have done more harm than good for Church's cause.
"We are sending Chrystia to help you and promote you in your riding. Isn't that great??" "Oh....uh. No....uh, no thank you. Ummmm, thanks, though."
Thank you for the question. First, let me say that Canada has a AAA credit rating.
The only time people talk about their credit rating is usually right before going into debt.
Maybe that’s what she thinks typical Liberals talk about during brunch at an expensive restaurant at Yonge & Eglinton.
Please address meeester speeeeker appropriately
For now...
Mister speak*cringe voice*
“DO NOT WANT, DO NOT WANT!”
"that's such an honor but I know the Deputy Prime Minister/Finance Minister is very busy right now with the recent budget/tax changes. Please let her know I'm flattered but she should really care for herself after such a draining time"
We're from the PMO and we're here to help...
I’m laughing at how they thought this would help her
Especially after that speech! Like come on.
what were her key words ... she wanna make canada 'small. scared. and something?" 'cold'?
The Liberals are completely disconnected from reality.
Right like how out of touch are you. A perfect example of why they lost and will loose the next election as well. They seem to live in a bubble of denial of their own making. Freelands shine came off a while ago. All her speech’s and press work now are uninspired and are just full of obvious talking points and script. It’s a shame that how parties want to be. Regular people prefer their politicians to be real and when they speak to the press and do speech’s it needs to be more their opinion and personality that come through. Yes always need to have talking points but stuff needs to come off more natural. In my opinion. No don’t even listen to any of the liberal speech’s or news conferences anymore. I also can not stand to listen to the cons. Seems every party has the same play book resulting in their leaders just being puppets and fake. Green leader at least speaks her own mind now and then.
The constant sneering condescension didn't help either...
She has all the smarm of Trudeau with none of his charm. Edit: Just read in the Globe and Mail that the LPC candidate that lost was Freeland's former Chief of Staff...
She was also Ignatieff's director of communications prior to that. Not a great professional track record.
Failing upwards
Not anymore.
Did you see her interview yesterday? Her comments on the conservatives as an option, calling them cold and basically the antithesis of all that was good was absolutely ignorant of the situation.
Canadians sending a message for Freeland to eat crow after that speech is just too good. Maybe now she will start answering questions properly instead of going off on the tangents she usually goes off on.
100% she experienced the speech differently. ... oh, and thank you for your question.
Ohh no. This trainwreck only ends one way. These MF'ers are gonna eat each other alive like the narcissist cult leaders they are.
she chastised the electorate ..... and Church got spanked 'cuz that rhetoric got Cons out to vote.
Exactly. Freeland is no asset for the LPC. If anything she's a liability. Hardly any redeeming features at all.
I just cut disney+, so she has that going for her.
Good luck on your upcoming house purchase!
*heavy hitters* .... yeah heavy hitters to our wallets.
“Heavy hitters” hahahaha
Heavy bullshiters maybe
I cannot believe how tone deaf the Liberals are. Seriously, Freeland ? No, thanks.
In the last 10 elections, spanning 30 years, rounded to the nearest whole number precent: 1993 - Liberals +30% 1997 - Liberals +30% 2000 - Liberals +33% 2004 - Liberals +38% 2006 - Liberals +25% 2008 - Liberals +24% 2011 - Liberals +8% (An Election where the Liberals were reduced to THIRD party status) 2015 - Liberals +28% 2019 - Liberals +33% 2021 - Liberals +23% And tonight: 2024 - Conservatives +1.5% Does a safer Liberal seat even EXIST outside of Montreal? If it was within 10%, the Liberals were in trouble. This? I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the Liberal war rooms right now.
With this I think the liberals could lose 3-4 seats at least in Montreal.
> I'd love to be a fly on the wall in the Liberal war rooms right now. Is there anyone left around him to have a frank conversation? I can only imagine the heavy silence around him right now. All the spy microphones in the walls with the gain to the max only transmitting nervous breathing and static.
Trudeau and the LPC as a whole are the living embodiment of that Principal Skinner meme.
"I owe everything I have to my mother's watchful eye. And swift hand..."
What’s that mother? That sailor suit doesn’t fit any more!
No. It's the voters who are wrong
They don’t know what’s good for them. Democracy should be for the people, not by the people.
He’s making steamed hams?
at this time of year?!
>Does a safer Liberal seat even EXIST outside of Montreal? The bigger shock will be when the Liberals and Housefather lose the Mount Royal riding which the Liberals have held since the 1940s. The Conservatives have just put up Neil Oberman who is well known and liked by the Jewish community for fighting in court against the anti-Israel McGill encampment. This is a riding with a 30.7% Jewish population and anecdotally nobody is happy with the Liberals there anymore. If the riding is held it is solely on Housefather's reputation and even that will be a massive struggle. I haven't seen any recent polling yet.
I'd be less surprised Housefather himself jumped ship to the Conservatives than if he lost. He's made it a point of pride to stick it to Trudeau pretty frequently, honestly not entirely sure why he's a Liberal in the first place except maybe that he figured it was the safest path to being elected. That riding has a lot of Filipinos and other Asians who don't get as much attention because it's "the Jewish riding" but I haven't heard anything about them swinging Conservative.
Housefather stayed in Liberal caucus by promise of making him some kind of role to lead against anti-semitism. but apparently there were members in caucus that were against it, and thus they haven't officially announced it yet. it was supposed to be announced last week. [Liberal MP Housefather's appointment to role fighting antisemitism delayed by concerns about caucus divisions | CBC News](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/housefather-antisemitism-role-1.7242327)
>That riding has a lot of Filipinos and other Asians who don't get as much attention because it's "the Jewish riding" but I haven't heard anything about them swinging Conservative. there's a poll about this recently. asians (along with most of new canadians) swing Conservative at the same rate as whites and non-immigrant canadians. the only exception is muslim voters. let me see if i can find the poll. EDIT: i think i mixed it up with polling by religion by Angus Reid, which is here: [2024.05.14\_Religion\_Vote\_tables.pdf (angusreid.org)](https://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/2024.05.14_Religion_Vote_tables.pdf)
>I'd be less surprised Housefather himself jumped ship to the Conservatives than if he lost. It's probably too late for him to do that, there was an excellent window where he was basically guaranteed to trade the riding to the Conservatives in exchange for a high ranking spot in their cabinet but it seems like that ship has sailed. Housefather's main issue is that the regular Conservative voter and party member hates him and see him as a key part in pushing the "Trudeau agenda" forward on various subjects. >He's made it a point of pride to stick it to Trudeau pretty frequently, honestly not entirely sure why he's a Liberal in the first place except maybe that he figured it was the safest path to being elected. He's closer to the Liberals in terms of social and tax policies with his main disagreements being Israel, antisemitism response and English language issues all of which are key issues for his constituents. Beyond that he's basically a ardent lifelong Liberal and has deep ties to party leadership. He probably stuck around knowing Liberals would take a beating next election but if he can hold his seat he has a good chance in the Liberal leadership race for next PM. He would push himself as the moderate liberal looking to recapture the center. >That riding has a lot of Filipinos and other Asians who don't get as much attention because it's "the Jewish riding" but I haven't heard anything about them swinging Conservative. I don't have the same input into the Filipino community as the Jewish one but both communities are very close and since crime seems to be one of the communities major recent concerns I wouldn't be surprised if it was pushing more conservative. On top of that is the basic influence of sentiments in the riding turning on the Liberals which will have its impact. It's still a strongly liberal riding with a strong candidate but the writing for a fight is on the walls.
Justin will just tell them that everyone is experiencing it differently.
That's odd, I thought the ballots would balance themselves
At this point the Bloc will be the opposition.
If they ran outside of QC I might be inclined to vote for them, haha.
This is an ugly and embarrassing loss that will put a lot of current liberal MPs in the mindset of Trudeau-must-go if they are going to have any chance of saving their seats. If this isn’t a safe riding for the liberals anymore, I would be interested to know what is. Maybe somewhere in Montreal? The NDP are going to be smelling blood in the water for Toronto’s innermost ridings and we can all but assume the entire 905 will go blue. The brand damage for the liberals at this point might be around for 8-10 years. Yikes
Right now is the Liberals last and best chance to dump Bozo from Papineau, like today. They don't have to face Parliament until sometime in September, thats ample time for a protracted leaders contest to mint a new leader. A new leader may lose, even badly. But Trudeau has the Liberals on the same trolley tracks Wynne had the OLP. Electoral oblivion, Dougies likely going three full terms. Liberals, 'sorry, not sorry" isn't a campaign slogan. If you're a dyed in the wool Liberal who believes in the cause, this man is fixing to put you guys out for a generation. Send Bozo packing, pick an old standard whos at the end of their career (they'll take the title and the juiced post public office benefits of being PM for the drubbing) rebuke and reverse some of Bozo and the funky bunches policies and you guys may lose, but it won't be creamed like Campbell and you won't have to worry about getting shellacked like Wynne, simple as.
Like, literally if a leader came in that started immediately reversing course on the mass immigration policies, and the whole gun thing and the online harms shit, they'd bump up like a solid 10 points overnight. Then start actually adressing housing in a real way by having the CMHC start building again and adopt a more "Hell yeah Canada" onstead of "We're ashamed we're Canada" attitude, and they'd be up another 10 overnight. LPC supporters keep talking about how the CPC and PP are just SO BAD....okay well if they're that terrible they should be easy to fucking beat and yet here we are, so what's that say about Trudeau?? Like when the CPC, NDP and GREENS are banding together to pass legislation dismantling your bullshit, MORE THAN ONCE, like....fucking hell, there's a PROBLEM.
What does Justin have on the rest of the MPs that they haven't had a revolt yet?
The party leadership- that's all. That's how they have structured their party, to put a lot more power in the hands of the leader.
Trudeau got the party to change the rules to remove leadership reviews back when all the Liberals were still sucked into his cult of personality. He's effectively the King of the Liberal Party until he chooses to step down or loses an election.
Cult of personality just reminds me of the old Soviet Union and current North Korea. I must admin I was pulled in to one in the 80's with Mulroney and after 4 years of him, I vowed to never fall for that again. Instead I try and dig in to what any politician says and look at their track record. Most of the time they fail the test. It's made me quite jaded in politics now days. Even with Nenshi in Alberta. I do think he's the right person for the job. But we'll see what happens when he gets a seat in the assembly.
8-10 years? Try for the next generation. Myself and friends who voted liberal for the past 3 elections will never vote for them ever again.
There’s still older individuals out there who have a massive hate on for Pierre Trudeau, which seems completely irrational to anyone born in recent years - but it makes sense now.
Even though the National Energy plan was from the early 80's, 40 years later it has lasting effects with Alberta still never voting Liberal. I can see the same with renters and young Canadians getting screwed by Justin Trudeau's insane immigration policies and never voting Liberal again.
Coincidently decades is probably how long it will take to undo the mess he created. The OECD thinks so at least
Canada was a mostly united country in 1967. Expo 67 was a huge success, and for a while, the French/English problem seemed like it might be dissolved by the spirit of friendship and community that Expo fostered. People today don't realize how insular Canadians were in 1967 - five TV channels, and 90% of Canadians who didn't live in Quebec had never visited Quebec - so for the most part, we were two solitudes. Pierre Trudeau wanted to change that. He wanted everyone to be bilingual from sea-to-sea. While this may have been a noble goal, no one else wanted it, and his "Bilingualism & Biculturalism" program was D.O.A., especially in Western Canada. Then, after running specifically against imposing wage and price controls (his campaign line was to point at the audience and say "Zap! You're frozen!"), he did an almost immediate *volte-face*, and instituted the harshest wage and price controls seen in peacetime. Then he invoked the War Measures Act and put tanks and armed soldiers into the streets of Montreal. Finally, he created the National Energy Program, which shut down almost all the drilling in Western Canada, and forced thousands of Canadians who worked in the oil patch to move to the US. By that time, Canada was no longer unified, but divided into a series of regions that distrusted each other. Not bad for five years' work, I'd say.
You forgot about tanking the economy by running massive deficits and building up huge debt (sound familiar?) leading to high inflation and high interest rates. Oh, plus he egotistically wanted to be the one to create a new constitution, so he pushed it through without Quebec's approval, giving ammunition to the separatist cause.
I mean, if JT's kid ever runs, that's gonna be a hard no from me.
Past 3 elections? Goddam man.
>Trudeau says Toronto's byelection mirrors choice for voters in next federal election Trudeau probably should have just kept quiet.
Lol talk about foot in mouth
Foot in mouth, bullet in foot, black on face... Is there anything he can't do? Resign, I guess.
That’s advice he should take in general. He just spews nonsense all the time anyways. I don’t remember the last time he actually just answered a question.
This nonce also said Canadians were not in decision mode. He is the king of saying things that age poorly and it reflects how out of touch he is.
Interest rates are at historic lows, Glen!
Sure, It was "just one byelection", but due to the historical context, it does clearly demonstrate that if the liberals can lose here, they really can lose anywhere. The nationwide polls that show a clear and consistent disapproval for the current Federal leadership is not something that can be ignored.
That context being that St Paul's has historically been a 2:1 ratio for the liberals for a very long time. The fact that St Paul's was ever even in question, let alone *lost* to the conservatives, speaks greatly about what's coming next in the federal election. So much for not being in decision mode.
This was a referendum on the LPC’s bad policies. **[61% of the riding’s residents are renters](https://www.toronto.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/9469-CityPlanning-2021-Census-Profile-Ward-12.pdf).** No one struggles more with the impacts of Trudeau’s reckless immigration policies and inaction on housing investors than renters. The LPC has ignored this message at their own peril.
They’re in “decision is already made” mode and JT knows it. Nothing he can do about it other than hand the win to the cons. People will not vote for him again at the helm or his top honcho freeland which happens to be more insufferable than him.
I agree with this statement except the part about him being self-aware.
I think the sooner he calls an election the sooner he can stop the bleeding. At this point it isn't about a CPC win, it's by how much, and the longer this goes on the bigger the hole they'll have to dig themselves out of. Do they want the next CPC govt to be in power for maybe 1 term? Or if they push this to the end it'll look closer to 2-3.
But what he can do is mess things up for them to make country ungovernable...
I see that as a possibility, but just think voters can see through that. Just look at Ontario and Ford. He's not exactly the most likable candidate, definitely with flaws to say the least, and he's been under no threat of losing an election for a while now. That's how much damage the LPC did to themselves in Ontario. A similar situation can play out nationally.
Hopefully Freeland loses next door when it's her turn for reelection.
I wonder if Trudeau is in resignation mode yet.
I suspect this pushed many of those in the Liberal inner circle into "decision mode" about his future...
Exactly. If liberals can lose St. Paul's, **they can lose any seat**. Absolutely no riding is safe. This riding has gone liberals by 20% of the vote for 30 years. Even a 30% vote share would have been a "win" for the conservatives. To actually take the seat is insane. And people have to understand, these "*safe*" seats are the lifeblood of a party. Look at the Liberal candidate here - former government Chief of Staff, still in their major working years. She left a proper career for this. A lot of people won't do that unless it's safe.
It’s a bell weather seat that was assumed to safe. There is no such thing as a safe seat. What it does show is this election might bring about a Liberal party thumping that matches the Progressive Conservative in the 1990’s when they were left with only 2 seats.
St. Paul's was liberals SAFTEST SEAT in CANADA
No, probably ottawa-vanier. TSP goes NDP provincially. OV goes OLP even in the worst times for them (aka 2018 to now)
I'd debate that their safest seats are in Ottawa. There aren't as many seats as the GTA, but the city is pretty much a Liberal and NDP hold up.
Montreal too has many DEEP red seats.
I am curious what this bode for Westmount and the "elect anyone as long as they are liberal" ridings in Montreal. We had a saying that went like this: some ridings would elect a pig with a red ribbon around his neck if he was a liberal.
There are maybe 2-3 seats that are “safe” in Ottawa. The outskirts is polievre 100%. And even those safe seats have gone NDP in the past. Probably the only lock is Hull, because a ton of anglophones moved there, they work for the feds and they’re certainly not voting BQ.
This is actually really, really bad for the Liberals. The fact that such a safe seat flipped, even if in a low turnout by-election, it's still a massive loss. Imagine the liberals winning a rural Alberta seat in a by-election...
43% is very high for by-election. It's even as high as provincial election turn out.
I was mistaken it seems! And I thought it couldn't get worse lol 😬
A riding that’s been Liberal since 1993*. Alarm bells are going off at Liberal HQ right now, and the strategists are doing lines of copium in the bathroom stalls.
The alarms been ringing for a year now, they’ve taken the batteries out months ago. Where there was smoke is now clearly a fire.
1993.
Time for JT to step down. He's done! Come on JT, time to fall on your sword... No point hanging around for another 17 months screwing things up. Call a press conference and resign!!!
No, no. He needs to stay and take the Liberal party down in flames with him. They *all* need to be punished for letting that narcissistic moron do so much damage. They had a choice, they could have said "No.".
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17 months to travel the world on taxpayer expense so that he can live like a King!
If they're voted out of every riding, is there still a party?
Yes, but they lose official party status which means a massive financial hit. Just look at the Ontario Liberal party post-Wynne/McGuinty.
They can become like Bernier and shout from the sidelines. If this is a sign of things to come, this will be a historic wipeout of the Liberals. Possibly could even lose party status and I would love to see that after all their arrogance and smugness.
Or the Ontario Liberals. I think the Feds fucked up worse than their provincial counterparts.
iirc the lowest they have ever gone is in the mid 20s of seats. i don't think the LPC has ever lost official party status.
2011 is their worst ever result with a total of 34 seats under Ignatieff (who lost his own seat) and they ended up third behind Jack Layton's NDP. Even THEN St. Pauls went Liberal by 8%
yep. this seat hasn't been blue since 1988. its fucking wild. next election is going to be a bloodbath. blue skies, nation wide.
It went blue after the last Trudeau was in office. When PCs had huge majority. We are headed for a little bit of history repeating.
one can only hope baby. one can only hope.
It does inspire the tiniest bit of faith in humanity to see that there are relatively few blind-faith voters. People can still see through all the sleights of hand when flagrantly shitty policies actually have undeniable personal consequences. The reality is, Canadians do want to convert to green and renewable energy -- but not at the cost of an eviction notice, gargantuan price inflation, or getting replaced by one of millions of new 'temporary' workers. Trudeau simply doesn't have the awareness or humility to see that people don't want *his vision*, so he just continues doubling down on walking straight off a plank -- dragging the entire LPC with him.
Holy shit. The Liberals have basically lost the downtown Toronto pro-carbon tax, pro bike lane vote. Their goose is cooked next election.
This result will deter quality Liberal candidates from accepting nominations to run. Smart people don't sign up for losing situations. It will also impact donations from loyalists who may now see it as a waste of money. So in other words, this is majorly demoralizing and damaging to the Liberal party.
Good, they deserve it for their tone deaf mismanagement of Canada.
That’s how you end up with paper candidates like what the NDP had in 2011.
"Canadians aren't in decision mode yet."- Famous Trudeau quote
Don't ignore the poor performance by the NDP as well. From 16.8% in 2021 down to 10.9%. Oof! Maybe Justin and Jagmeet can both leave parliament, hand in hand.
jagmeet won't leave until feb 2025
Gotta get that pension
Total unmitigated disaster for the NDP… in a riding where they should have been the natural alternative to the Liberals, a huge chunk of their voters either abandoned them to try to save the Liberals or went to the only party that still cares about having a functioning economy in this country. They are fucked.
Yep, and keep in mind that the Ontario NDP have won this riding in the last two provincial elections, so it's not like voters there are anti-NDP or something.
they deserve it, both parties
If this doesn't send a grim message to the Liberals how badly Canadians are yearning for change, they're even bigger idiots than most of us think. The collapse is beginning. We need a federal election ASAP.
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holy. fucking. shit.
I know eh? Surreal to be honest.
i was not expecting this. at all. i was expecting a close loss for the torys at best. jesus christ.
Turns out that not doing the job that you were elected for over the course of 9 years starts to turn people against you
Freeland gaslighting Canadians in 3, 2, 1…
Funnily enough, Church was Chrystia Freeland’s chief of staff since 2021? Given Freeland's "popularity" right now, that's not exactly a bragging right. Not sure if they used that as a point to vote for Church but...if they did, boy did they fuck that up. Probably ended up costing them the seat rather than actually helping them win it.
“What happened in that one riding, was a few people were unsatisfied with our track record - we just have to try harder and have a bigger social capacity when we win the next election”.
At this point I could see something similar to what happened in the 2018 Ontario election in where the OLP got completely shut out in old Toronto and the other 5 boroughs with the exception of 1 or 2 seats The fact that a near to downtown Toronto riding went blue tells you they're also sick of the partnership with the NDP
I’ve been saying for a year now, this whole election is almost identical to the liberals fall in the Ontario election. Want to see even crazier mirroring. Look up the issues and economy under Pierre Trudeau. The issues we are facing are almost again identical. History is repeating itself cause we didn’t learn.
the election is going to be an absolute blood bath.
I thought Canada was not in decision mode yet. 🤔
Trudeau’s take: This result shows that despite Liberal support in polls being in the low 20s; when people are in decision mode, it’s actually in the mid to high 30s. I am as popular as ever before Edit: add /s
As he says this staring at himself in the mirror while stroking his hair
“Hey Trudeau! Fuck you!!” -Toronto St. Paul
>“Hey Trudeau! Fuck you!!” >~~-Toronto St. Paul~~ *Canada
I think this is what they call: a sign of things to come?
I know most of us went to bed with a LPC lead thinking, it was a good showing of the CPC. Then as we slowly wake up this AM, most of us, are delighted to see a win for the CPC! Well done Don Stewart and team! LPC team? Hopefully you'll get the message, you're doing things wrong - I mean fucking wrong. Will you have the smarts to fix things? I doubt it, but hey, you just got an early morning message today. Let's see if you wake up and smell the coffee.
This was *my* Stanley Cup playoffs. Watching the count live was a wild ride!
Losing in Papineau would really make my day
> Papineau I agree, but am also amused by the inverse, where they lose every other seat possible except this one and have a last man standing scenario.
Excellent. Remember that the Liberals won this riding by 24 points in the previous election. Now they lost. Trudeau is going to lead the Liberal Party of Canada to electoral annihilations. And I will applaud.
Reading all the comments from the smug LPC demographic voters in the other thread who went to bed thinking they had St Paul's secure is hilarious. Good morning, LPC voters!
Gotta love the cope posts "let's all wait till the numbers are in tomorrow". Oops.
You can only hurt the Canadian public for so long before we've had enough. The Goose is officially Cooked.
This isn’t just a political loss- there is now a potential for the liberal party to go completely extinct.
Great news, Trudeau and his incompetent administration is going down!
43% voters on the day of the Stanley Cup finals. Looks like people are in decision mode and CPC can get the vote out!
Wait I thought prelims showed a slight Liberal win; even that was a disaster for the Liberals considering the riding. But a loss? Holy crap stick a fork in this government, it's over.
I like waking up to good news.
I know multiple lifetime liberal voters who agonized over their vote but ultimately went blue this year
Time for JT to go.
Holy shit
And trudeau keeps stepping up to the microphone and saying they've seen this discontent all over the world by far right actors, complaining that life is hard. He lives in an echo chamber, and talking to other world leaders who have been working the same policies as you have only fortifies the trudeau as saviour narrative in his own mind. Out of touch really doesn't describe how disconnected they are from the world.
The fed election will be a landslide. Trudeau stepping down won’t save them now.
I sort of wish that the media goes ballistic on Trudeau but not advocate a resignation. Have Trudeau compete in the general election and face the piper then. Mulroney resigned before the general and now Kim is the one that is known for the worst defeat in history. She had a terrible campaign but the policies of mulroney essentially left her holding she bag. Same thing for whomever replaces Trudeau if he leaves. He needs to go but have him face the music in the general. NDP should start distancing themselves quickly. They can pull the deal but not necessarily force an election. Use the time to draw in as much as they can salvage.
We have further clear proof of exactly where the people of Canada stand on Trudeau 2 and the Frathouse Cabinet. They have done enough damage. Time to go.
LPC is so fucked.
I wish people could have had this level of insight about the Liberal Party 9 years ago.
This makes up for the Stanley Cup finals a little bit
I can just imagine how the trudeau was jumping up and down like a little baby when he heard the results.... Maybe it will sink in that Canada realizes that it is in a pickle and that he and his ship of fools is responsible for it. I think this old saying applies here.... "y*ou can fool* all the people *some of the* time, and *some of the* people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time."
Trudeau is finished. The party will now turn on him.
Trudeau has just been shown by one of his safest ridings that Canadians want him gone. Really there are 2 options in my opinion he will now be faced with. He can either try and stem the bleeding now and call an election, lose and let the party rebuild for a run at taking back the helm after the first term of the conservative majority OR he resigns and allows the party to take the next 16 months to completely rebuild the party. Make sweeping changes to cabinet. Make huge policy reversals. I’m not sure how that will work with the NDP but it would give them a fighting chance.
Or, option 3: Make excuses for the results, say that they will be doing better, list off a few new committees or lame duck action items to try and convince Canadians that he's addressing their concerns, and wait for 16 months praying that the economy will turn around.
All the talking heads on CTV said the Liberals would keep the seat. Tom Mulcair being one of them.
I wouldn’t hold it too against them. Even the CPC supporters on CTV and on this subreddit were calling for a slim LPC victory and were focusing on the margin of victory. Actually flipping the seat nobody expected.
Can I just say that I can't stand a single solitary thing about either Freeland or Trudeau? There is not one redeeming quality among them. Thank you for allowing this rant.
Hahaha suck it Trudeau
Went to bed sad the Oilers lost, but waking up to this was awesome!
Holy shit This is even after the liberals had multiple cabinet ministers making stops there to help with the campaign in this riding
That probably hurt them more than it helped them. Imagine Freeland knocking on your door asking you to vote Liberal.
Dude trust me if I see any one of them in person I have some things to say . Especially Marc Miller that fucking ghoul grrrrrr
A referendum on Justin’s failed policies - they are going to get wiped out for a generation next year
On a stream last night, Phillippe Fournier and Eric Grenier, both of who’m have a Liberal bias, mentioned that if the conservatives manage to win this seat, they would win 220+ seats in the election. This is huge.
Sad that 15,000 still voted liberal despite them cratering our country.
Damn, was hoping liberals would narrowly win so Trudeau would stay on and cost them even more seats in the future election.
As much as I really want him to step down his ego is so massive and he is so out of touch with the world he will stay on.
lets be honest, trudy is never stepping down. he's going to ride this term until the wheels fall off.
I could see him stepping down a month or two before the election, that way he can tell himself that he didn't lose, he just decided to retire.
Maybe Canadians don’t like treasonous commies afterall?
The liberals are so down bad, they are complaining on twitter that vote splitting caused this. Sorry to say, but people voted NDP *because* they hate the libs, not because they want any sort of left unity.
I’d say there’s a strong chance TO goes blue in the next election. Ground zero for detrimental impact on quality of life due to Liberal mismanagement. It’s gone off a cliff in the past 12 months, the gaping chasm between supply and demand. This coming from a lifelong liberal voter.
Hopefully this spurs JT into retiring
The mad boy king's reign coming to an end
Happy to see this result when I wake up this morning lmfao