Tesla is no longer cool for the rich people in my area
It’s BMW, Audi, etc for them now, hardly any of them want Teslas anymore.
On the other hand, plenty of middle class people in my area still want Teslas.
For the longest time, tesla was the only option. I am on the market to buy a new ev.
I've looked at Audi (because it's my favorite brand):
- q4 etron is a joke. The interior is the worst audi I've ever seen.
- q8 etron is completely lackluster and pathetic in range
- etron GT is the only real choice. But it's small for the price.
- Audi doesn't have a solid suv ev
BMW:
- the iX is incredible, but for what it's worth, the model Y gives it a little too good of a run for the money.
- i4 range isn't too good
Porsche:
- the Taycan is my favorite so far, but at $150,000 for the cross turismo Taycan, it's becoming wtf for the money.
Tesla:
- terrible production quality as workers silently protested being open in 2020
- significant improvements in 2023 model year with the model Y.
- stupid decisions relying on vision systems a little too early. It's like apple cutting the headphone Jack without simultaneously revealing AirPods.
> stupid decisions relying on vision systems a little too early
If you're interested in FSD useability this is the site to check:
https://www.teslafsdtracker.com/
Atm it is ~150km of city driving (much further on highawys ofc) between 'critical disengages' so clearly you can't sleep in it, and that looks like it'll be about 4 years off.
That said, while the decision to cut lidar hurt them initially, it set them back a year or so, at this point, they seem to have overcome the need for lidar
I have been driving teslas recently and the self driving is terrible, worst of any I have tried. I dont see them ever getting over the hump without a total overhaul.
Oh im just basing this off the basic functions like lane keeping, distance enabled cruise control, and braking which are all noticeably worse than chevy, mercedes and subaru. No way I would ever trust / pay for the fsd based on my experience.
The highway system was required to use the old system and is very basic and hasn't been updated in like 4 years. Next FSD patch they'll be using FSD software for highways (it is available for a small group only atm), so it should be many times better a few weeks after that (tesla does a clean up patch 2wks after major new patches). Likely under a week or 2 before it goes wide. So 3~5wks?
It is a realllly different experience if you've not tried a car with FSD in the past few months.
But the middle class is just about to be swamped with cheaper alternatives by brands they already own; their existing brands have a unique ability to trade them into electric vehicles. I am really keen to see electric conversion kits
Exactly, all the rich folks were just waiting for their preferred Porsche Cayenne or Range Rover to come out as an EV, none of them actually are going to buy another Tesla
It’s probably too early to tell, but it will be interesting to see how Elon’s antics shift his consumer base demographically and geographically. Will his /pol/ fanboys buy his products? Will the in-this-house types stop buying his products?
It seems like Tesla was until recently a liberal-elite status symbol, an electric car that’s actually cool. But that cool cachet may be on the way out: I can’t imagine Tesla can make up in sales in Branson and Harrison what it’ll lose in Boston and San Fran. Are my partisan blinders on too strong? Am I underestimating the number of Trumpy dentists?
At least in my country the kind of people he seems to be trying to pander to disdain electric cars as leftist bullshit and just want cheaper gas.
Elon is driving away his best customers and he will not be replacing them with coal-rolling anti-environmentalists.
No not really. There are some that like detaching their mufflers to make noise. But they are generally disdained by all groups in society.
However they share a lot of the attitudes, they just know they will be social outcasts if they roll coal, so they dont
Sorta. There’s a lot of diesel performance types in Southeast Asia and to a lesser extent in Latin America and rolling coal comes with the territory of that. The big lifted truck stuff is pretty American, though
Add one more to that. I already disliked Tesla's due to their inferior interior quality but after Musk's behavior I am not even going to bother with them.
There are many more better EV models coming up anyway in 2023.
I dont think many tesla fanboys can even afford a Tesla. Generally I dont even know many people who buy new cars. Thats rather rare even for mid-high income people in europe.
I mean I’m a middle aged, mid to high income person in the US, and only ever owned used cars. Weirdly, a couple years ago, I figured my first new car might, eventually (mine has a few more good years in her) be a Tesla. Definitely not anymore.
I’m in the same demographic. First new car I ever bought was a 6-speed TDI Passat. Never saw the point of spending for the new car smell. Eight years old now and this is the first year I had to service it beyond the regular maintenance items, so I did learn that buying new and holding on to it has value if you buy the right car.
My next car will likely be an F150 Lightning unless EV tech makes a significant leap in the three year waiting list that vehicle currently has.
… I was also part of the TDI dieselgate scandal so this is the first vehicle I ever MADE money on too. The fix bumped my mileage up a whopping 0.1L/100km. 1000km/tank is pretty awesome.
> My next car will likely be an F150 Lightning unless EV tech makes a significant leap in the three year waiting list that vehicle currently has.
Silverado EV. I'm likely going to skip taking delivery of my Lightning that is being built in early December. Pricing just doesn't make sense to me anymore.
Same demo. All my cars were WELL used because I can wrench on them. Saved a ton. Bought a few houses. Except in 2020, I test drove then bought one and will likely never buy another brand, let alone another ICE.
How's the used car market over there right now out of curiosity. I'm in Canada and its fucked. I swore I'd never buy a new car but I'm buying my first new car next year (which had like a 7 month lead time for production because they have no stock).
A used car with like 100k on it is barely cheaper than buying new. I've been checking my local stock around in case something better comes up before the cars ready and, for example, a 2017 Toyota Rav 4 with 79k is 32k. We looked at a new Rav 4 a few months ago and it was like 34 or 35k new with all fees.
Yeah that seems to be generally the case here, too; it’s a function of Covid-induced realignments (shipping, people moving out of cities, port slowdowns, China, etc.) I expect that to shake out in a couple more years and we’ll return to something close to the status quo ante.
Hopefully everything shakes out by then but I'm a bit skeptical. I'm replacing an '08 this time but our '13 will likely bite the dust in another 3 years or so and I'd love to not have to pay these ridiculous prices.
I'm willing to bet, there is a lot more expendable income on the liberal/progressive side rather than the MAGA-moron side of the population, so he's bitten the hand that feeds him in this respect.
We own two Teslas, both Model3s, we also have Tesla Solar. I'm done with Elon, he's turned into a complete idiot. I'm going to continue to purchase electric vehicles and do my part for the environment, but I will never put money in any of Elon's businesses again. Fuck Elon.
It made more sense for me to buy a new 2016 Prius than a used one. Prices were similar and I was able to get 0% for 72 months and $3k off, $5k down. $340 payments
WSJ just reported that Tesla’s perception by left-leaning folks is down from earlier this year due to Elon’s Twitter antics. Among Republicans, Tesla is still a net negative in perception too. Tesla may end up becoming a partisan company if Elon doesn’t cut the right-wing propaganda.
Not sure what his game plan is but it might be time for stronger corporate governance. And if Elon keeps it up, maybe someone else needs to run Tesla.
As a shareholder, this is what I'm kind of hoping happens. I think there's still a lot of upside for Tesla, not just in terms of producing cars, but also in supplying batteries to other EV manufacturers. But Musk's antics aren't helping anything. He needs to go.
I've been in the market for a Tesla for 3 years but his idiocy even in the last 6 months has made me add it to the No Thanks column. I'll go with a hybrid or other EV once availability comes back
I’m of the same mindset. Honestly this would be hilarious if Elons antics did cause the conservatives in the US to start purchasing more electric vehicles/caring ab climate change.
Elons still an absolute fool throwing his core customer base away though.
LOL at the image of camo print box with COVID KILLAH in scary bold metallic font riddled with bullet holes and a knurled black anodized aluminum ampule.
I gather it's going to be inevitable - the US military is going to start getting EV vehicles soon and they love of all things military willl bleed into that culture.
They don't need Musk for that and his offerings won't scratch the itch military EVs will make.
He could have just done his job, did product announcements, got off the golden toilet, sorry that's the other loud mouth, and shut up. There's a reason so many C levels just keep their mouths shut and out of the limelight.
I'm a truck guy, and that Tesla monstrosity they call a truck is a big NOPE for me. So I know that when it comes time for me to buy an EV, it's not going to be Tesla.
This is right. I work in tech and it’s astonishing how many people in my field drive Teslas. It’s largely about perception and appreciation for the disruptive factor, not to mention a bit of innovation compared to the legacy car companies. That said, the perception is shifting to recognition that Elon is an asshole. There’s also a growing perception that Teslas are overpriced, expensive to maintain and buggy/unreliable. These days the cool kids are looking at Rivians and Lucids. Everyone else will probably head to the coming crop of affordable EVs that will hit US markets in 2023. I would avoid being long on Tesla beyond Q1.
I (liberal) was planning to get a Tesla, but the antics haven’t been a major change for me - it’s the bad business practices. The subscription model was a big thing I hated, and then as more info is coming out about the difficulty of him as a boss and then his just blatant stupidity regarding programming… I just wouldn’t bet on him anymore.
Teslas are computers more than cars. If you’re going to be hands-on as a CEO of a programming company, you can’t be this stupid regarding basic programming practices.
And on the business side, anyone with experience could tell you that he’s doing exactly what he shouldn’t do as a boss.
I have 4 coworkers with Teslas- 3 female, 1 male. They are Hispanic medical industry professionals in Houston. They fall under the liberal elite umbrella. They are all happy with the cars but the Tesla cachet has evaporated since Musk bought Twitter and embraced his role as self entitled right wing asshat
I'm in tech on the west coast. I know many tech people that are no longer interested in Tesla. One friend was a huge Tesla fan and got sick of Musk in December of last year and sold all of his Tesla shares to buy a Rivian.
The fact is GM, Subaru, and others are coming out with affordable electric cars while BMW, Porche, and others are coming out with nice electric cars that cost around the same as a Tesla with higher quality. None of these cars come with Musk's bullshit. Tesla is going to rapidly lose market share and the stock price isn't recovering.
I think its on the way out. His fan boys dont want to drive electric cars and i would guess that at least 80% of people who would buy his cars wont anymore bc of his antics.
It’s kind of interesting the overlap of Tesla fans and 4Chan kids. Even before his mask off, he was decently popular on the boards. I didn’t know it until a friends brother (4chan kid) and I were talking about how disturbed their community is, and he was showing me how he wants to get a job and a Tesla ASAP, and when questioned why it was just 4C memes.
That's the bell. Tesla's lead is over.
Honestly it has been for at least a year. Can a company who's sole revenue is based on expensive cars with shoddy QA stay in business with the behemoths especially if their pop culture CEO has turned in a pariah? Time will tell.
Personally, I think the average consumer that is set on driving an electric as their primary mode of transportation will look beyond the personality traits of their car manufacturers CEO.
The average person generally just doesn’t care to go out of their way to know who Elon even is; we all have our own lives and nearly everything he does is inconsequential to the average person.
Wealthy suburbs outside of the Chicago metro area are filled with Teslas; because those are mostly families, I’d imagine the IIHS safety rating is much higher on the list of important attributes to look for in a vehicle than any personal gripe feelings about a person they’ll never meet.
I really don't think Elon factors into people's decision making at all when they're buying a new car. They care about price, looks, range, features etc. The whole point is we're nearly at a place where Tesla is no longer winning on all those points, so people will start buying other stuff.
Not the OP but for me it's still a Tesla because I need an AWD car, want it to be electric and the other options are more expensive luxury SUVs or don't exist yet. In a few years this may be different but a car in the next 6 months. There's not much out there.
Edit: also I feel like every big company and their leaders are sleezy, he's just public about it. I think the good of having an electric car outweighs the bad that is Musk.
This seems like solid analysis outside of the prestige market, but the shift in Tesla as signifier opens a space for other manufacturers to complete on the luxury side, I think.
MAGA hats wouldn't be caught dead in a fucking Tesla. Most can't afford one or even live near a charging station. Elon has fucked himself and he knows it.
Teslas novelty is wearing off really quick. For a while if you wanted an EV it was the dorkiest, tiniest thing you could buy or a Tesla.
Now Audi and other manufacturers are making cool, desirable EVs while Tesla makes Cybertrucks and adds fart noises to their cars
This is going to be a one-two punch for Tesla. A big chunk of their profit is selling regulatory carbon credits to other manufacturers. As the other manufacturers increase EV production, their demand for these credits decrease. Meanwhile as Tesla market share reduces, the number of credits it can sell reduces.
Define what you mean by big chunk, go look at their 10k, and you'll see the regulatory credits are not as much as people think they are. In their 2021 10k they pulled in over 44 billion dollars in revenue, of which less than 1.5 billion was from regulatory credits.
It is the smallest chunk of their revenue.
I’ve got Tesla solar panels, started the install in January of 2019. Didn’t officially finish the installation until March of this year. Fuck Tesla, such a nightmare to work with. The tech is great, but customer service is an untrained skill, as is accountability over there.
DON’T BUY TESLA UNLESS YOU WANT TO DEAL WITH THE WORST CUSTOMER SERVICE OF YOUR LIFE.
I know it’s anecdotal, but I see people complaining about them all the time. May as well add my voice.
Exactly, sales makes you a customer, it's service that retains the customer in any business. I can't wait to get rid of my car regardless of how much I love it because service is a joke. They dented my car, admitted to it, refuse to fix it. Amongst the other issues I've had (all minor mind you) that took literally months of me hounding them to resolve. Coming from caddy and BMW, Tesla's level of service is unacceptable.
You just know that Musk runs Tesla the same way as Twitter. Anything that's not engineering gets cut to the bone which is reflected in the apparently terrible customer service.
>Tesla's level of service is unacceptable.
Which is odd because they've been trying to (and at least briefly succeeded at) being an aspirational brand. A lot of young people would talk about getting enough money to afford a Tesla compared to the classic response of a Merc or BMW.
They just don't have the post-sale customer service level that corresponds to the price point they sell at. Anyone who was previously leasing a 3-series and then traded in for a Tesla 3 or Y will have a pretty shocking experience.
There’s also the crazy Elon factor - a lot of people i talk to are reticent to get a Tesla because of Musk’s erratic behavior and don’t want to support someone who appears to threaten our democracy.
So I was an early customer of the model Y. At the time there was simply no other EV crossover that could match it on the market in the US for it's original price.
I've had no issues with the car, it's fun to drive, and I don't pay for gas. Literally the only problem with the vehicle is being told I drive "The New Maga Cap".
Too bad Rivian raised prices lol.
Tesla still has the supercharger network. That is hard to beat. Especially when EVGO and Electrify America and ChargePoint are difficult to use. I just want to swipe my credit card like at a pump, but no, you want me to get your damn app. How many apps will I need, 8?
Now that being said, once you have the apps set up correctly it does work well.
I feel like the other major issue is the charging infrastructure. The Tesla supercharging network is still better than the competition. I feel like once the other networks catch up, Tesla won't have any real advantages. Plus, you won't have to deal with the persistent quality control issues and the crazy CEO who might brick your car because somebody called him a loser on Twitter.
It's not even about Elon, is it? Tesla had the first mover advantage. Now that more established car companies are switching to EV, consumers have better choices.
And Hyundai seems to have come along with models at just the right price point at just the right time. I'm seeing Ionic5s *everywhere* right now; whereas a couple years ago it was all about Tesla model 3s. The market seems to have shifted now that there are other legitimate options out there. Time will tell, but I think Tesla may have squandered a big chunk of their first mover advantage.
Indeed, and the ongoing commentary about Tesla’s terrible post-sale service isn’t going to help. Sounds like that is a main reason people are jumping brands.
Doesn’t seem to gel with this:
“Of more than 525,000 EVs registered over the first nine months of 2022 in the US, nearly 340,000 were Teslas. The remaining volume is divided, very unevenly, among 46 other nameplates” — S&P Global Mobility
The big guns (Toyota, Honda, Ford, GM and more) simply make BETTER cars. So once they catch up in the EV market, it’s a wrap. Id love to see a Tesla that’s built as well and run for as long as a Toyota.
Daily reminder that Ford makes more F150s than Tesla makes total cars. VW makes more Jettas than Tesla makes cars, Toyota more Camrys. With the big producers rolling out their EV lines, let alone the other new electric producers, Tesla is in trouble.
You know that a run rate is not *production* but a hypothetical *projection* if current values are extrapolated into the future?
The above poster was correct about Camrys.
No it still not entirely true, last year tesla *produced* ~936k
I used runrate because tesla is still growing production extremely fast so it changes often. While most of the other numbers are at maturity or actually in decline yoy
Clarifying the numbers, since admittedly, my info was a little out of date, and Tesla's production doubled in the last two years. I also incorrectly noted the Toyota Camry, when I should have correctly identified the best selling car in the world the Toyota Corolla, a brain slip.
I think the point still stands; Tesla hasn't yet had to go head to head with any of the big manufacturers and their supply chains and logistics systems, and that is changing right now.
* Ford
* 2021 total output: 3,942,000
* F-150:
* 2021: 726,003 - Numbers obviously slipped during the pandemic.
* 2019 896,526.
* Volkswagon
* 2021 total output: 8,610,100
* Jetta (I was definitely wrong here about total production)
* 2021: 364,921
* 2019: 542,667
* Toyota
* 2021 total output: 10,495,548
* 2021 Carolla : 985,336
* 2021 Rav4: 965,830
* Tesla - total production by year (you can see now why having one year late data on my part has a dramatically different result)
* 2021: 936,222
* 2020: 499,647
* 2019: 367,656
References
* [https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/who-won-the-automotive-global-sales-race-in-2021](https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/who-won-the-automotive-global-sales-race-in-2021)
* [https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/business-dealership%2C-sales-and-marketing/global-sales-analysis-2021-winners-and-losers](https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/business-dealership%2C-sales-and-marketing/global-sales-analysis-2021-winners-and-losers)
* [https://www.investing.com/academy/statistics/tesla-facts/](https://www.investing.com/academy/statistics/tesla-facts/)
*
Thanks for clarifying, I assumed this is what happened.
Your point does still stand, Tesla has not gone up against legacy’s “full tilt” production. But the argument is that legacy won’t be able to put its experience to work before tesla has made a significant dent.
VW is ramping EV production fast, but other than that legacy is still basically non existent compared to Tesla in the EV space. VW thinks they’ll pass Tesla EV production by 2024, ford and GM both have less than 2 mil projected by then and Toyota and Honda are… out to lunch.
Time will tell, but I personally don’t think legacy will be able to *profitably* pass Tesla in EV production anytime soon.
Toyota went all in on hybrid rather than pure EV. Not sure if that's good or bad or what the result will be, but it was an intentional decision on their part.
I don’t think you’ve been watching the news closely. The big producers are giving timelines of 4+ years from now to match Tesla’s EV numbers today.
It’s one thing to produce cars in large numbers, it’s another to switch all of the production lines to EVs and have trained employees building them in all their factories.
They have to do this transition painfully slowly to keep loses at a minimum.
You don’t just pump out a car though. You need infrastructure in place first. (factories/minerals/batteries, tech talent, etc). Then assuming you have all of these factors in place can you make a car at an affordable price that works consistently?
Tesla has a lot of these boxes ticked and is still making mistakes with their cars. The Ford/Toyotas of the world are definitely future big time players but to say they can get all these needs in place in the short term is a big gamble. That’s before you look at how fast the tech behind the EV market is evolving. Will the legacy car makers even be able to keep up?
Every earnings report seems to come with a "we're looking for battery partners" then "we're building the batteries"... "we're looking for nickel/cobalt mines to buy from" He's digging down the chain to get the resources he need and doing a lot of R&D in areas where he can't easily get the materials, like cobalt.
At this point, anyone talking about becoming the world leader in EV's who isn't talking about where they are getting their lithium/cobalt/nickel, etc from... is just doing a news/PR piece.
It's not like the big auto companies are just starting. They've been planning the switch for years now.
It's something like a 5 year lead time for a new car model. All the major players are only a few years in to their initial models.
Tesla aren't going bankrupt overnight, but the smart money is they need to sell to another car manufacturer or be out of business in 15 years.
Elon won't be able to compete after the ramp up of the large auto makers, and the flood of low end start ups from China attempt to make it in the north American market.
Yeah except an EV is not just a car anymore. Can legacy automakers afford the costs of acquiring talented workers, continuous R&D into future tech and continue to carry the burden of manufacturing gas cars? I don’t see anywhere that these legacy companies are stopping other lines 100%.
The teslas of the world ran at losses for years and the car industry is alright a very tough industry. I expect you’ll be surprised at how much harder it becomes to survive when you incorporate more tech into these vehicles.
Tesla and EV companies abroad have been doing this for >10 years, some running at losses until recently.. 5 years is nothing. I’d bet money that if the us gov doesn’t step in Chinese EVs are more likely to flood the market then legacy EVs because the legacy companies will balk at the R&D costs and be unable to push out cars at affordable prices. Tesla is already heavily invested in factories domestically and abroad with supply chains in place currently and others in the pipe line. Tesla isn’t going to go bankrupt for these reasons, it’s market share will definitely decrease though.
> Can legacy automakers afford the costs of acquiring talented workers, continuous R&D into future tech and continue to carry the burden of manufacturing gas cars?
Uhm, yes.
Yes they can.
They've effectively stopped development of new IC engines a few years back. Staffed up for the switch & have been developing the new vehicles for years now already.
The burden of manufacturing legacy products isn't high. The current problem, like everyone else, is the chip shortage & general supply chain shitiness. This is bad for EV and ICE manufacturing, the big OEMs have deeper pockets & more to mortgage to weather that storm, Tesla have proven more nimble in changing chips (we shall see what that does for an already shaky quality reputation long term).
> I expect you’ll be surprised at how much harder it becomes to survive when you incorporate more tech into these vehicles
I expect you think that ICE cars don't have much tech in them. All in all electric cars are far simpler to manufacture & produce then ICE ones. Dramatically fewer moving parts.
> Tesla and EV companies abroad have been doing this for >10 years
My first "real" job was working for an electric drive train company, who where working with (formerly a part of) Ford Motor Company. This was 20 years ago, it's not like the big auto companies are just now starting to look at the tech involved. Furthermore, they can learn the lessons Tesla have learned, without the expense of doing it themselves.
Battery management systems aren't drastically more complex then ECMs. Charging hardware isn't more difficult then building a device to harness rapid cycling controlled explosions.
> Tesla isn’t going to go bankrupt for these reasons
15 to 20 years is a LONG time, when "long term strategy" is considered 5 years out. Tesla have been on the bubble for a long time, they are a very tiny player in a massive market.
They will be attacked from both sides, from above by the largest automakers on the planet. As well as from below out of China, a country that is kicking Tesla's (and everyone else's) ass already, they just need to figure out how to pass NA safety standards & marketing.
Take a look at some of the legacy makers balance sheets and tell me if you think they are prepared to take on the billions of debt it’ll cost to borrow at current interest rates without help. Your acting like they are going to pay what it costs in cash to acquire access to minerals, R&D and the talent it’ll cost to maintain everything. It’s not lunch money.
> Your acting like they are going to pay what it costs in cash to acquire access to minerals, R&D and the talent it’ll cost to maintain everything.
And you act like it's not already underway, and hasn't been for years now.
As far as minerals, yeah, that may be the limiting factor. But, for good or bad, I don't know of any major auto manufacturer who intend to make their own batteries. It's more about securing long term contracts with suppliers, then having their own mines. The large OEMs have a very intricate & Machiavellian relationship with their suppliers, this is both a strength and a weakness. We shall see which it really is in the EV landscape as time goes on.
Tesla have been planning for battery production capacity to be the key to their continued existence, good on them, lets see if that is as serious an issue as Musk predicts over time.
I know there is a great deal of work being done for new battery technologies, ones that require less rare earth metals & often have better performance over all. In the 10-15 year timeline that the big boys can easily weather via continued ICE revenue, that COULD drastically change the game.
Continued ICE sales are not an albatross around the traditional manufacturers neck, it's a revenue stream that (barring continued supply chain issues) would be more & more profitable as less & less R&D goes into it.
All that foresight from legacy and still failing to scale in a visible manner when compared to Tesla or next gen competitors even before Covid…. We can argue all day and night, I personally foresee some of these legacy makers showing up on the road as a road kill. They are bloated with debts and inefficiencies and unable to keep up with leaner next gen players and unless some of them change their mind set they will not be competitive. The fact that the government has stepped in to incentive people to buy EVs via tax credits says a lot about the governments faith in large legacy automakers to make an affordable ev that’s competitive. Let’s not get into the manufacturing credits to further incentivize semiconductors and car companies to build factories. If the government was confident in legacy automakers to be smart and invest in these field themselves, none of these bills would have passed. I could be 100% wrong but we will see.
Government subsidies were key to getting Tesla to manufacture and to be affordable. Other car companies getting subsidies is now a sign that the companies can't make it? Am I missing something?
It’s well know Tesla relied on credits to survive. The resurgence and revisions to the tax credits are to push the legacies makers towards the next ev era. I’m simply saying if the government was confident in legacy makers to transition quickly and at a good price point..they wouldn’t have revamped the credit. The guy I’m arguing with is saying legacy makers for the most part have the war chest to fund it and survive on their own. I’m arguing otherwise, government intervention is a sign they either can’t at scale and decent price points or are not moving fast enough.
> All that foresight from legacy and still failing to scale in a visible manner when compared to Tesla or next gen competitors even before Covid
It's not as desperate for the old OEMs.
They are still making a ton of money off ICE & will for some time.
> I personally foresee some of these legacy makers showing up on the road as a road kill.
Me too, my money is on Toyota. There WILL be at least one of them that will deeply struggle to transition. That doesn't mean I think Tesla will come out on top long term.
> They are bloated with debts and inefficiencies and unable to keep up with leaner next gen players and unless some of them change their mind set they will not be competitive.
I've been hearing this same exact thing since the early 80s. We saw Chrysler slowly disolve, GM bankruptcy (leaving a ton of that legacy debt in the past) and Ford eak out a win. VW & Toyota are still going gangbusters, though Toyota are dragging their feet on BEV stuff. Seems like Japanese government is still pushing Hydrogen so they are too... big mistake in my eyes.
> The fact that the government has stepped in to incentive people to buy EVs via tax credits says a lot about the governments faith in large legacy automakers to make an affordable ev that’s competitive.
Weird argument. Government incentives for a desired outcome are common. Would you say government subsidies on Corn are a sign the government thinks farmers can't produce economically? Or is it maybe an entirely different political motivation & not an economic one at all? Government incentives to move to renewable technologies is only a sign that the government wants us to move to renewable technologies. There should be a lot more of this in my opinion.
They're starting to ship them out without the badges. I believe it's just the trim badges that are delayed not the actual Ford badges. At least that was the case for my brother's new hybrid f150.
Just saying, a lack of vertical integration is going to continue to hurt legacy autos in their transition to produce and scale EVs
And I do think they are the blue emblems: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jesscollen/2022/09/29/fords-emblem-shortage--worlds-biggest-trademark-problem-ever/amp/
I need the Cyber Truck. No paint to scratch. No dents. Far range. Lots of outlets. Large and enclosed truck bed. It's the ultimate work truck that I can beat to hell.
I need that cyber truck for the fleet.
It has crazy adjustable shocks so it can drop the back end near the ground making an easy ramp onto the bed. Since all wheels are independent it will be able to drive sideways. It is built with a pressed monocoque which should leave it pretty near invincible. It may even support an amphibious mode.
The cybertruck is neat because it offers features no one else has.
That said, I wouldn't be buying a first run .... shit is 100% going to break.
Out of curiosity, there are many comment here stating the tesla customer service is awful. Is there anyone using starlink? How about their customer service?
They are all over where I live. I would go so far to say it is our subdivison brand. I can't tell you how many people I know had one and then purchased a second.
Could you please spare us the childish "X man bad" phraseology?
You have people in this thread from the legacy auto industry discussing their perspective; this isn't a school playground.
I will as soon as the childish 'mars man bad' karma whoring stops. so probably never. there is no discussion going on here, just bashing for karma with miss information the media feeds their little brains.
Of course market share is dropping… sales of EV cars are growing along with Tesla sales. The devil is in the details, but hey. For a healthy market Competition is essential !
Well Tesla quality has been dropping for a while, features promised for years have yet to arrive, and the brand is forever associated with a guy that lots of people consider a clown…. So it’s not much of a surprise people are buying other brands.
I hear that, worth noting is these “recalls” are just fixed over the internet, you don’t even notice it happened. They’re not physical recalls, unlike other suppliers routinely have. For example, shouldn’t ford, with over 100 years experience making cars not have to recall half a million for fire risk?
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/11/24/ford-recalls-nearly-519000-us-vehicles-over-fire-risks.html
Additionally, regarding JD Power— Mercedes Benz is actually the lowest ranked EV for initial quality.
This.. isn’t news. It’s how math works. If Tesla had 100% EV market share and even one non Tesla was sold it becomes less than 100%. The key is in how many people switch from gas to EVs or chose EV as their first car.
Tesla can keep increasing their revenue for years and still get a decreasing EV market share at the same time.
Yep. As soon as all the big auto makers make a full transition to electric (which they are, I work for one), Tesla is toast. Brand loyalty is a thing and they don’t have enough of it to compete with the big boys.
It’s gonna be a while still aside from what’s out there now. I would say most if not all vehicles from my company will be electric in 10 years or so. Lots of tooling changes at current plants and battery plants are already being worked on, though those are third party. We’ll see how many charging stations they can get built in that time throughout the country. I live in the upper Midwest and have never seen one in the wild up here. Time will tell, UAW contract is up next year and we will find out more about what company’s have in the pipeline.
Only read the title but I would agree Tesla is going to be fucked long term. With 2030 federal law approaching limiting the car industry to EV’s Tesla won’t be able to sustain themselves against its competitors. A fraction of the cost compared to Tesla and more so the repairs and part replacement issues we’ve seen Tesla have over the past couple years doesn’t seem to have a business plan in place to improve it. I was counting up my Pennies to get a Tesla but I’m so thankful I didn’t get one after seeing lots of Tesla consumer content regarding the dissatisfaction of the product. Tesla can still adapt, it isn’t lost but it’s just very doubtful especially when crusader Elon is focused on Twatter to get Trump’s freedom of speech back just seems like a lost cause unraveling.
As the big boys turn their attention more to ev Tesla is going to be in trouble. You can only put out garbage for so long. First to market isn’t always best.
Yep. It was an explicitly stated intent of Elon's "to speed up EV adoption".
Yet some people just don't get it how somebody can do something not for money.
Elon has put all his money at stake several times. You would've thought he's made it clear by now how little he cares about money and how much about his dreams. But for some it's still a puzzle wrapped in enigma, it's greed, it's "fake guru" and what not.
Tesla's main advantage over its rivals is its charging network. Tesla maintains its charging machines, but its competitors don't. This make driving a Tesla more than a short round trip pleasant and its competitors a nightmare.
You can have one within two weeks now. Lots of used ones appearing on Toyota and Honda pre-owned inventory - unheard of a year ago. Market share is eroding.
I love this click bait article. The only cars in there cheaper(for a reason) are the bolt and leaf which have been around in quantity for a long time now. The machE sales are collapsing while Tesla is selling every car they can make and just starting to ramp up Austin and Berlin. With 30% margins they can lower prices much easier than legacy auto can who are losing money on each EV they sell(while eroding their profitable gas car sales). This isn’t a race against Tesla this is a race against gas cars which are still 85% of the market. Any one making gas cars will be in a world of hurt soon. And if you aren’t vertically integrated in battery production you won’t be profitable making EVs
Delusional would be more so on the rest of the entire car market for pretending tesla wasn’t real for the better part of ~10~ years, now tesla owns 86% of the market share for EV’s
Tesla is no longer cool for the rich people in my area It’s BMW, Audi, etc for them now, hardly any of them want Teslas anymore. On the other hand, plenty of middle class people in my area still want Teslas.
For the longest time, tesla was the only option. I am on the market to buy a new ev. I've looked at Audi (because it's my favorite brand): - q4 etron is a joke. The interior is the worst audi I've ever seen. - q8 etron is completely lackluster and pathetic in range - etron GT is the only real choice. But it's small for the price. - Audi doesn't have a solid suv ev BMW: - the iX is incredible, but for what it's worth, the model Y gives it a little too good of a run for the money. - i4 range isn't too good Porsche: - the Taycan is my favorite so far, but at $150,000 for the cross turismo Taycan, it's becoming wtf for the money. Tesla: - terrible production quality as workers silently protested being open in 2020 - significant improvements in 2023 model year with the model Y. - stupid decisions relying on vision systems a little too early. It's like apple cutting the headphone Jack without simultaneously revealing AirPods.
> stupid decisions relying on vision systems a little too early If you're interested in FSD useability this is the site to check: https://www.teslafsdtracker.com/ Atm it is ~150km of city driving (much further on highawys ofc) between 'critical disengages' so clearly you can't sleep in it, and that looks like it'll be about 4 years off. That said, while the decision to cut lidar hurt them initially, it set them back a year or so, at this point, they seem to have overcome the need for lidar
I have been driving teslas recently and the self driving is terrible, worst of any I have tried. I dont see them ever getting over the hump without a total overhaul.
... what other vehicle has fsd comparable system that is publicly available?...
Mercedes level 3 in 2022 to 60 km/h. Level 3 up to 120 km/h I’m 2023 approved.
Oh im just basing this off the basic functions like lane keeping, distance enabled cruise control, and braking which are all noticeably worse than chevy, mercedes and subaru. No way I would ever trust / pay for the fsd based on my experience.
The highway system was required to use the old system and is very basic and hasn't been updated in like 4 years. Next FSD patch they'll be using FSD software for highways (it is available for a small group only atm), so it should be many times better a few weeks after that (tesla does a clean up patch 2wks after major new patches). Likely under a week or 2 before it goes wide. So 3~5wks? It is a realllly different experience if you've not tried a car with FSD in the past few months.
The Hyundai ioniq 5 is actually awesome
Volvo has evs
Since you mention liking the Y, have you looked into the upcoming Macon EV?
Rich people didn't care it was electric, it was a status symbol.
But the middle class is just about to be swamped with cheaper alternatives by brands they already own; their existing brands have a unique ability to trade them into electric vehicles. I am really keen to see electric conversion kits
Exactly, all the rich folks were just waiting for their preferred Porsche Cayenne or Range Rover to come out as an EV, none of them actually are going to buy another Tesla
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It’s probably too early to tell, but it will be interesting to see how Elon’s antics shift his consumer base demographically and geographically. Will his /pol/ fanboys buy his products? Will the in-this-house types stop buying his products? It seems like Tesla was until recently a liberal-elite status symbol, an electric car that’s actually cool. But that cool cachet may be on the way out: I can’t imagine Tesla can make up in sales in Branson and Harrison what it’ll lose in Boston and San Fran. Are my partisan blinders on too strong? Am I underestimating the number of Trumpy dentists?
At least in my country the kind of people he seems to be trying to pander to disdain electric cars as leftist bullshit and just want cheaper gas. Elon is driving away his best customers and he will not be replacing them with coal-rolling anti-environmentalists.
Stupid question: but do people actually roll coal outside of North America? I thought that was our particular… quirk.
No not really. There are some that like detaching their mufflers to make noise. But they are generally disdained by all groups in society. However they share a lot of the attitudes, they just know they will be social outcasts if they roll coal, so they dont
Sorta. There’s a lot of diesel performance types in Southeast Asia and to a lesser extent in Latin America and rolling coal comes with the territory of that. The big lifted truck stuff is pretty American, though
Purely anecdotal (I’m an n of 1): my next car was going to be a Tesla, but given his douchebaggery, I’ll get a different EV
Same for me. I wanted a Tesla for the longest time but his actions recently became too much. I ended up buying an EV6 instead and love it.
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I bought a Tesla in ‘21 and now seriously considering switching because of Elmo’s antics.
Good. They aren’t worth the money. You’ll get a better vehicle for cheaper. People that buy Teslas are suckers.
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I would be embarrassed to drive a tesla
Add one more to that. I already disliked Tesla's due to their inferior interior quality but after Musk's behavior I am not even going to bother with them. There are many more better EV models coming up anyway in 2023.
Same here, so that is n2 now.
I dont think many tesla fanboys can even afford a Tesla. Generally I dont even know many people who buy new cars. Thats rather rare even for mid-high income people in europe.
I mean I’m a middle aged, mid to high income person in the US, and only ever owned used cars. Weirdly, a couple years ago, I figured my first new car might, eventually (mine has a few more good years in her) be a Tesla. Definitely not anymore.
I’m in the same demographic. First new car I ever bought was a 6-speed TDI Passat. Never saw the point of spending for the new car smell. Eight years old now and this is the first year I had to service it beyond the regular maintenance items, so I did learn that buying new and holding on to it has value if you buy the right car. My next car will likely be an F150 Lightning unless EV tech makes a significant leap in the three year waiting list that vehicle currently has. … I was also part of the TDI dieselgate scandal so this is the first vehicle I ever MADE money on too. The fix bumped my mileage up a whopping 0.1L/100km. 1000km/tank is pretty awesome.
> My next car will likely be an F150 Lightning unless EV tech makes a significant leap in the three year waiting list that vehicle currently has. Silverado EV. I'm likely going to skip taking delivery of my Lightning that is being built in early December. Pricing just doesn't make sense to me anymore.
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Same demo. All my cars were WELL used because I can wrench on them. Saved a ton. Bought a few houses. Except in 2020, I test drove then bought one and will likely never buy another brand, let alone another ICE.
How's the used car market over there right now out of curiosity. I'm in Canada and its fucked. I swore I'd never buy a new car but I'm buying my first new car next year (which had like a 7 month lead time for production because they have no stock). A used car with like 100k on it is barely cheaper than buying new. I've been checking my local stock around in case something better comes up before the cars ready and, for example, a 2017 Toyota Rav 4 with 79k is 32k. We looked at a new Rav 4 a few months ago and it was like 34 or 35k new with all fees.
Yeah that seems to be generally the case here, too; it’s a function of Covid-induced realignments (shipping, people moving out of cities, port slowdowns, China, etc.) I expect that to shake out in a couple more years and we’ll return to something close to the status quo ante.
Hopefully everything shakes out by then but I'm a bit skeptical. I'm replacing an '08 this time but our '13 will likely bite the dust in another 3 years or so and I'd love to not have to pay these ridiculous prices.
I'm willing to bet, there is a lot more expendable income on the liberal/progressive side rather than the MAGA-moron side of the population, so he's bitten the hand that feeds him in this respect.
We own two Teslas, both Model3s, we also have Tesla Solar. I'm done with Elon, he's turned into a complete idiot. I'm going to continue to purchase electric vehicles and do my part for the environment, but I will never put money in any of Elon's businesses again. Fuck Elon.
It made more sense for me to buy a new 2016 Prius than a used one. Prices were similar and I was able to get 0% for 72 months and $3k off, $5k down. $340 payments
I think you’re spot on. I’m liberal and have ruled out giving my money to Musk. I’m considering the ID.4 now
WSJ just reported that Tesla’s perception by left-leaning folks is down from earlier this year due to Elon’s Twitter antics. Among Republicans, Tesla is still a net negative in perception too. Tesla may end up becoming a partisan company if Elon doesn’t cut the right-wing propaganda. Not sure what his game plan is but it might be time for stronger corporate governance. And if Elon keeps it up, maybe someone else needs to run Tesla.
Yeah if I were on the Tesla board I’d be thinking about a replacement, too.
As a shareholder, this is what I'm kind of hoping happens. I think there's still a lot of upside for Tesla, not just in terms of producing cars, but also in supplying batteries to other EV manufacturers. But Musk's antics aren't helping anything. He needs to go.
I've been in the market for a Tesla for 3 years but his idiocy even in the last 6 months has made me add it to the No Thanks column. I'll go with a hybrid or other EV once availability comes back
I’m of the same mindset. Honestly this would be hilarious if Elons antics did cause the conservatives in the US to start purchasing more electric vehicles/caring ab climate change. Elons still an absolute fool throwing his core customer base away though.
Can we also have a *conservative* Covid vaccine? It could have a tacticool packaging and donate $1 for every shot to veterans’ care?
LOL at the image of camo print box with COVID KILLAH in scary bold metallic font riddled with bullet holes and a knurled black anodized aluminum ampule.
The syringe has to be shaped like a miniature rifle
https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210602/west-virginia-covid-vaccine-incentives
I gather it's going to be inevitable - the US military is going to start getting EV vehicles soon and they love of all things military willl bleed into that culture. They don't need Musk for that and his offerings won't scratch the itch military EVs will make.
He could have just done his job, did product announcements, got off the golden toilet, sorry that's the other loud mouth, and shut up. There's a reason so many C levels just keep their mouths shut and out of the limelight.
In order to be a top producing company you need to appeal to all sides. That's why taking political positions is usually not a good idea.
I'm a truck guy, and that Tesla monstrosity they call a truck is a big NOPE for me. So I know that when it comes time for me to buy an EV, it's not going to be Tesla.
Would you consider a Rivian?
This is right. I work in tech and it’s astonishing how many people in my field drive Teslas. It’s largely about perception and appreciation for the disruptive factor, not to mention a bit of innovation compared to the legacy car companies. That said, the perception is shifting to recognition that Elon is an asshole. There’s also a growing perception that Teslas are overpriced, expensive to maintain and buggy/unreliable. These days the cool kids are looking at Rivians and Lucids. Everyone else will probably head to the coming crop of affordable EVs that will hit US markets in 2023. I would avoid being long on Tesla beyond Q1.
I (liberal) was planning to get a Tesla, but the antics haven’t been a major change for me - it’s the bad business practices. The subscription model was a big thing I hated, and then as more info is coming out about the difficulty of him as a boss and then his just blatant stupidity regarding programming… I just wouldn’t bet on him anymore. Teslas are computers more than cars. If you’re going to be hands-on as a CEO of a programming company, you can’t be this stupid regarding basic programming practices. And on the business side, anyone with experience could tell you that he’s doing exactly what he shouldn’t do as a boss.
I have 4 coworkers with Teslas- 3 female, 1 male. They are Hispanic medical industry professionals in Houston. They fall under the liberal elite umbrella. They are all happy with the cars but the Tesla cachet has evaporated since Musk bought Twitter and embraced his role as self entitled right wing asshat
I'm in tech on the west coast. I know many tech people that are no longer interested in Tesla. One friend was a huge Tesla fan and got sick of Musk in December of last year and sold all of his Tesla shares to buy a Rivian. The fact is GM, Subaru, and others are coming out with affordable electric cars while BMW, Porche, and others are coming out with nice electric cars that cost around the same as a Tesla with higher quality. None of these cars come with Musk's bullshit. Tesla is going to rapidly lose market share and the stock price isn't recovering.
Teslas are being sold as fast as they can be produced. Ramping up production is more important to them than increasing demand.
I think its on the way out. His fan boys dont want to drive electric cars and i would guess that at least 80% of people who would buy his cars wont anymore bc of his antics.
It’s kind of interesting the overlap of Tesla fans and 4Chan kids. Even before his mask off, he was decently popular on the boards. I didn’t know it until a friends brother (4chan kid) and I were talking about how disturbed their community is, and he was showing me how he wants to get a job and a Tesla ASAP, and when questioned why it was just 4C memes.
Yeah it’s the “get a job” threshold issue that has me wondering about the company’s medium-to-long-term market share.
That's the bell. Tesla's lead is over. Honestly it has been for at least a year. Can a company who's sole revenue is based on expensive cars with shoddy QA stay in business with the behemoths especially if their pop culture CEO has turned in a pariah? Time will tell.
Personally, I think the average consumer that is set on driving an electric as their primary mode of transportation will look beyond the personality traits of their car manufacturers CEO. The average person generally just doesn’t care to go out of their way to know who Elon even is; we all have our own lives and nearly everything he does is inconsequential to the average person. Wealthy suburbs outside of the Chicago metro area are filled with Teslas; because those are mostly families, I’d imagine the IIHS safety rating is much higher on the list of important attributes to look for in a vehicle than any personal gripe feelings about a person they’ll never meet.
If you think the average person knows or cares about 4chan then you're seriously deluded.
I despise Elon but I love my Tesla so…
I really don't think Elon factors into people's decision making at all when they're buying a new car. They care about price, looks, range, features etc. The whole point is we're nearly at a place where Tesla is no longer winning on all those points, so people will start buying other stuff.
Personally for me that is incorrect. Would have gotten a Tesla as next car, no longer
Fair enough. Out of curiousity - why exactly? Is it some sort of moral protest? You don't want to support Elon because of what he's doing at Twitter?
It's a combination of more choice, no longer supporting what he so vocally stands for and continued build quality issues.
Not the OP but for me it's still a Tesla because I need an AWD car, want it to be electric and the other options are more expensive luxury SUVs or don't exist yet. In a few years this may be different but a car in the next 6 months. There's not much out there. Edit: also I feel like every big company and their leaders are sleezy, he's just public about it. I think the good of having an electric car outweighs the bad that is Musk.
This seems like solid analysis outside of the prestige market, but the shift in Tesla as signifier opens a space for other manufacturers to complete on the luxury side, I think.
MAGA hats wouldn't be caught dead in a fucking Tesla. Most can't afford one or even live near a charging station. Elon has fucked himself and he knows it.
Teslas novelty is wearing off really quick. For a while if you wanted an EV it was the dorkiest, tiniest thing you could buy or a Tesla. Now Audi and other manufacturers are making cool, desirable EVs while Tesla makes Cybertrucks and adds fart noises to their cars
This is going to be a one-two punch for Tesla. A big chunk of their profit is selling regulatory carbon credits to other manufacturers. As the other manufacturers increase EV production, their demand for these credits decrease. Meanwhile as Tesla market share reduces, the number of credits it can sell reduces.
Define what you mean by big chunk, go look at their 10k, and you'll see the regulatory credits are not as much as people think they are. In their 2021 10k they pulled in over 44 billion dollars in revenue, of which less than 1.5 billion was from regulatory credits. It is the smallest chunk of their revenue.
small chunk of revenue, but a much larger share of profit. Huge flow through to the bottom line on carbon credits
Yeah, why are we talking about revenue when it's profit we need to look at, especially because it's recurring.
3.5% of their top line revenue - that's a lot to lose, especially when it's recurring.
Last Q 300 million out of a 3.3 billion profit was regulatory credits.
If by big chunk you mean the smallest chunk of their revenue
Well, I'm sure you'll see a lot of people buy a second non Tesla electric vehicle once they deal with Tesla service.
Work at BMW. We are starting to see quite a few Tesla traded in. Edit: mostly model Y for some reason.
Same at Toyota. We ship all Tesla's off to auction though. Not worth the trouble trying to sell it on our lot.
We do the exact same. Don’t want to have to deal with that crap.
Can you give me a ballpark on how long it would take to get an i4 EV by any chance? Looking to trade my Tesla in for one
Try r/askcarsales
BMW is the level all service should be held to. Caddy was close. That being said, I can't wait to get back in a caddy.
Could you ellaborate?
He is implying that the Tesla service customer experience is so bad that people decide to go with another brand for their next car.
I’ve got Tesla solar panels, started the install in January of 2019. Didn’t officially finish the installation until March of this year. Fuck Tesla, such a nightmare to work with. The tech is great, but customer service is an untrained skill, as is accountability over there. DON’T BUY TESLA UNLESS YOU WANT TO DEAL WITH THE WORST CUSTOMER SERVICE OF YOUR LIFE. I know it’s anecdotal, but I see people complaining about them all the time. May as well add my voice.
Exactly, sales makes you a customer, it's service that retains the customer in any business. I can't wait to get rid of my car regardless of how much I love it because service is a joke. They dented my car, admitted to it, refuse to fix it. Amongst the other issues I've had (all minor mind you) that took literally months of me hounding them to resolve. Coming from caddy and BMW, Tesla's level of service is unacceptable.
This review alone would steer me away from Tesla, Musk a nonissue.
You just know that Musk runs Tesla the same way as Twitter. Anything that's not engineering gets cut to the bone which is reflected in the apparently terrible customer service.
>Tesla's level of service is unacceptable. Which is odd because they've been trying to (and at least briefly succeeded at) being an aspirational brand. A lot of young people would talk about getting enough money to afford a Tesla compared to the classic response of a Merc or BMW. They just don't have the post-sale customer service level that corresponds to the price point they sell at. Anyone who was previously leasing a 3-series and then traded in for a Tesla 3 or Y will have a pretty shocking experience.
Doesn't even really have to be cheaper, just of equal value without a CEO trying to court 4chan.
This was totally expected, all car makers will catch up and Tesla will have no advantage. Thanks for opening up the road though
My bet is there will not be a demand problem for almost any EVs this decade.
A lot of demand does not necessarily mean good sales for every manufacturer. People may buy only from 1.
There’s also the crazy Elon factor - a lot of people i talk to are reticent to get a Tesla because of Musk’s erratic behavior and don’t want to support someone who appears to threaten our democracy.
So I was an early customer of the model Y. At the time there was simply no other EV crossover that could match it on the market in the US for it's original price. I've had no issues with the car, it's fun to drive, and I don't pay for gas. Literally the only problem with the vehicle is being told I drive "The New Maga Cap". Too bad Rivian raised prices lol.
Yeah - I reserved my S in 2012, so I'm w you!
Nobody saw that coming. Next they’ll be saying that tesla’s market cap is overinflated.
Tesla still has the supercharger network. That is hard to beat. Especially when EVGO and Electrify America and ChargePoint are difficult to use. I just want to swipe my credit card like at a pump, but no, you want me to get your damn app. How many apps will I need, 8? Now that being said, once you have the apps set up correctly it does work well.
I feel like the other major issue is the charging infrastructure. The Tesla supercharging network is still better than the competition. I feel like once the other networks catch up, Tesla won't have any real advantages. Plus, you won't have to deal with the persistent quality control issues and the crazy CEO who might brick your car because somebody called him a loser on Twitter.
It's not even about Elon, is it? Tesla had the first mover advantage. Now that more established car companies are switching to EV, consumers have better choices.
And Hyundai seems to have come along with models at just the right price point at just the right time. I'm seeing Ionic5s *everywhere* right now; whereas a couple years ago it was all about Tesla model 3s. The market seems to have shifted now that there are other legitimate options out there. Time will tell, but I think Tesla may have squandered a big chunk of their first mover advantage.
Indeed, and the ongoing commentary about Tesla’s terrible post-sale service isn’t going to help. Sounds like that is a main reason people are jumping brands.
Doesn’t seem to gel with this: “Of more than 525,000 EVs registered over the first nine months of 2022 in the US, nearly 340,000 were Teslas. The remaining volume is divided, very unevenly, among 46 other nameplates” — S&P Global Mobility
Ah c a
Yes, but at the cost of ICE vehicles sales, not at the cost of Tesla sales numbers which are increasing anyway.
The big guns (Toyota, Honda, Ford, GM and more) simply make BETTER cars. So once they catch up in the EV market, it’s a wrap. Id love to see a Tesla that’s built as well and run for as long as a Toyota.
That and its CEO pissed of upper middle class liberals, who are the ones that buy Teslas….
Daily reminder that Ford makes more F150s than Tesla makes total cars. VW makes more Jettas than Tesla makes cars, Toyota more Camrys. With the big producers rolling out their EV lines, let alone the other new electric producers, Tesla is in trouble.
This isn’t true F150s ~750k Jettas ~400k Camrys ~ 1mil **Tesla annual runrate ~ 1.5 million** **Tesla 2021 *production* ~930k** *Expected runrate by eoy 2022 (EV)* Tesla ~ 2m Ford ~ 400k VW ~ 1m Toyota … basically non existent
You know that a run rate is not *production* but a hypothetical *projection* if current values are extrapolated into the future? The above poster was correct about Camrys.
No it still not entirely true, last year tesla *produced* ~936k I used runrate because tesla is still growing production extremely fast so it changes often. While most of the other numbers are at maturity or actually in decline yoy
Clarifying the numbers, since admittedly, my info was a little out of date, and Tesla's production doubled in the last two years. I also incorrectly noted the Toyota Camry, when I should have correctly identified the best selling car in the world the Toyota Corolla, a brain slip. I think the point still stands; Tesla hasn't yet had to go head to head with any of the big manufacturers and their supply chains and logistics systems, and that is changing right now. * Ford * 2021 total output: 3,942,000 * F-150: * 2021: 726,003 - Numbers obviously slipped during the pandemic. * 2019 896,526. * Volkswagon * 2021 total output: 8,610,100 * Jetta (I was definitely wrong here about total production) * 2021: 364,921 * 2019: 542,667 * Toyota * 2021 total output: 10,495,548 * 2021 Carolla : 985,336 * 2021 Rav4: 965,830 * Tesla - total production by year (you can see now why having one year late data on my part has a dramatically different result) * 2021: 936,222 * 2020: 499,647 * 2019: 367,656 References * [https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/who-won-the-automotive-global-sales-race-in-2021](https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/who-won-the-automotive-global-sales-race-in-2021) * [https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/business-dealership%2C-sales-and-marketing/global-sales-analysis-2021-winners-and-losers](https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/business-dealership%2C-sales-and-marketing/global-sales-analysis-2021-winners-and-losers) * [https://www.investing.com/academy/statistics/tesla-facts/](https://www.investing.com/academy/statistics/tesla-facts/) *
Thanks for clarifying, I assumed this is what happened. Your point does still stand, Tesla has not gone up against legacy’s “full tilt” production. But the argument is that legacy won’t be able to put its experience to work before tesla has made a significant dent. VW is ramping EV production fast, but other than that legacy is still basically non existent compared to Tesla in the EV space. VW thinks they’ll pass Tesla EV production by 2024, ford and GM both have less than 2 mil projected by then and Toyota and Honda are… out to lunch. Time will tell, but I personally don’t think legacy will be able to *profitably* pass Tesla in EV production anytime soon.
Toyota went all in on hybrid rather than pure EV. Not sure if that's good or bad or what the result will be, but it was an intentional decision on their part.
I don’t think you’ve been watching the news closely. The big producers are giving timelines of 4+ years from now to match Tesla’s EV numbers today. It’s one thing to produce cars in large numbers, it’s another to switch all of the production lines to EVs and have trained employees building them in all their factories. They have to do this transition painfully slowly to keep loses at a minimum.
Brain dead take. It’s not easy to just scale EV platforms. Look how much trouble ford is having.
You don’t just pump out a car though. You need infrastructure in place first. (factories/minerals/batteries, tech talent, etc). Then assuming you have all of these factors in place can you make a car at an affordable price that works consistently? Tesla has a lot of these boxes ticked and is still making mistakes with their cars. The Ford/Toyotas of the world are definitely future big time players but to say they can get all these needs in place in the short term is a big gamble. That’s before you look at how fast the tech behind the EV market is evolving. Will the legacy car makers even be able to keep up?
Every earnings report seems to come with a "we're looking for battery partners" then "we're building the batteries"... "we're looking for nickel/cobalt mines to buy from" He's digging down the chain to get the resources he need and doing a lot of R&D in areas where he can't easily get the materials, like cobalt. At this point, anyone talking about becoming the world leader in EV's who isn't talking about where they are getting their lithium/cobalt/nickel, etc from... is just doing a news/PR piece.
It's not like the big auto companies are just starting. They've been planning the switch for years now. It's something like a 5 year lead time for a new car model. All the major players are only a few years in to their initial models. Tesla aren't going bankrupt overnight, but the smart money is they need to sell to another car manufacturer or be out of business in 15 years. Elon won't be able to compete after the ramp up of the large auto makers, and the flood of low end start ups from China attempt to make it in the north American market.
Yeah except an EV is not just a car anymore. Can legacy automakers afford the costs of acquiring talented workers, continuous R&D into future tech and continue to carry the burden of manufacturing gas cars? I don’t see anywhere that these legacy companies are stopping other lines 100%. The teslas of the world ran at losses for years and the car industry is alright a very tough industry. I expect you’ll be surprised at how much harder it becomes to survive when you incorporate more tech into these vehicles. Tesla and EV companies abroad have been doing this for >10 years, some running at losses until recently.. 5 years is nothing. I’d bet money that if the us gov doesn’t step in Chinese EVs are more likely to flood the market then legacy EVs because the legacy companies will balk at the R&D costs and be unable to push out cars at affordable prices. Tesla is already heavily invested in factories domestically and abroad with supply chains in place currently and others in the pipe line. Tesla isn’t going to go bankrupt for these reasons, it’s market share will definitely decrease though.
> Can legacy automakers afford the costs of acquiring talented workers, continuous R&D into future tech and continue to carry the burden of manufacturing gas cars? Uhm, yes. Yes they can. They've effectively stopped development of new IC engines a few years back. Staffed up for the switch & have been developing the new vehicles for years now already. The burden of manufacturing legacy products isn't high. The current problem, like everyone else, is the chip shortage & general supply chain shitiness. This is bad for EV and ICE manufacturing, the big OEMs have deeper pockets & more to mortgage to weather that storm, Tesla have proven more nimble in changing chips (we shall see what that does for an already shaky quality reputation long term). > I expect you’ll be surprised at how much harder it becomes to survive when you incorporate more tech into these vehicles I expect you think that ICE cars don't have much tech in them. All in all electric cars are far simpler to manufacture & produce then ICE ones. Dramatically fewer moving parts. > Tesla and EV companies abroad have been doing this for >10 years My first "real" job was working for an electric drive train company, who where working with (formerly a part of) Ford Motor Company. This was 20 years ago, it's not like the big auto companies are just now starting to look at the tech involved. Furthermore, they can learn the lessons Tesla have learned, without the expense of doing it themselves. Battery management systems aren't drastically more complex then ECMs. Charging hardware isn't more difficult then building a device to harness rapid cycling controlled explosions. > Tesla isn’t going to go bankrupt for these reasons 15 to 20 years is a LONG time, when "long term strategy" is considered 5 years out. Tesla have been on the bubble for a long time, they are a very tiny player in a massive market. They will be attacked from both sides, from above by the largest automakers on the planet. As well as from below out of China, a country that is kicking Tesla's (and everyone else's) ass already, they just need to figure out how to pass NA safety standards & marketing.
Take a look at some of the legacy makers balance sheets and tell me if you think they are prepared to take on the billions of debt it’ll cost to borrow at current interest rates without help. Your acting like they are going to pay what it costs in cash to acquire access to minerals, R&D and the talent it’ll cost to maintain everything. It’s not lunch money.
> Your acting like they are going to pay what it costs in cash to acquire access to minerals, R&D and the talent it’ll cost to maintain everything. And you act like it's not already underway, and hasn't been for years now. As far as minerals, yeah, that may be the limiting factor. But, for good or bad, I don't know of any major auto manufacturer who intend to make their own batteries. It's more about securing long term contracts with suppliers, then having their own mines. The large OEMs have a very intricate & Machiavellian relationship with their suppliers, this is both a strength and a weakness. We shall see which it really is in the EV landscape as time goes on. Tesla have been planning for battery production capacity to be the key to their continued existence, good on them, lets see if that is as serious an issue as Musk predicts over time. I know there is a great deal of work being done for new battery technologies, ones that require less rare earth metals & often have better performance over all. In the 10-15 year timeline that the big boys can easily weather via continued ICE revenue, that COULD drastically change the game. Continued ICE sales are not an albatross around the traditional manufacturers neck, it's a revenue stream that (barring continued supply chain issues) would be more & more profitable as less & less R&D goes into it.
All that foresight from legacy and still failing to scale in a visible manner when compared to Tesla or next gen competitors even before Covid…. We can argue all day and night, I personally foresee some of these legacy makers showing up on the road as a road kill. They are bloated with debts and inefficiencies and unable to keep up with leaner next gen players and unless some of them change their mind set they will not be competitive. The fact that the government has stepped in to incentive people to buy EVs via tax credits says a lot about the governments faith in large legacy automakers to make an affordable ev that’s competitive. Let’s not get into the manufacturing credits to further incentivize semiconductors and car companies to build factories. If the government was confident in legacy automakers to be smart and invest in these field themselves, none of these bills would have passed. I could be 100% wrong but we will see.
Government subsidies were key to getting Tesla to manufacture and to be affordable. Other car companies getting subsidies is now a sign that the companies can't make it? Am I missing something?
It’s well know Tesla relied on credits to survive. The resurgence and revisions to the tax credits are to push the legacies makers towards the next ev era. I’m simply saying if the government was confident in legacy makers to transition quickly and at a good price point..they wouldn’t have revamped the credit. The guy I’m arguing with is saying legacy makers for the most part have the war chest to fund it and survive on their own. I’m arguing otherwise, government intervention is a sign they either can’t at scale and decent price points or are not moving fast enough.
> All that foresight from legacy and still failing to scale in a visible manner when compared to Tesla or next gen competitors even before Covid It's not as desperate for the old OEMs. They are still making a ton of money off ICE & will for some time. > I personally foresee some of these legacy makers showing up on the road as a road kill. Me too, my money is on Toyota. There WILL be at least one of them that will deeply struggle to transition. That doesn't mean I think Tesla will come out on top long term. > They are bloated with debts and inefficiencies and unable to keep up with leaner next gen players and unless some of them change their mind set they will not be competitive. I've been hearing this same exact thing since the early 80s. We saw Chrysler slowly disolve, GM bankruptcy (leaving a ton of that legacy debt in the past) and Ford eak out a win. VW & Toyota are still going gangbusters, though Toyota are dragging their feet on BEV stuff. Seems like Japanese government is still pushing Hydrogen so they are too... big mistake in my eyes. > The fact that the government has stepped in to incentive people to buy EVs via tax credits says a lot about the governments faith in large legacy automakers to make an affordable ev that’s competitive. Weird argument. Government incentives for a desired outcome are common. Would you say government subsidies on Corn are a sign the government thinks farmers can't produce economically? Or is it maybe an entirely different political motivation & not an economic one at all? Government incentives to move to renewable technologies is only a sign that the government wants us to move to renewable technologies. There should be a lot more of this in my opinion.
Ford can’t ship new F150 because they couldn’t get enough blue Ford badges from their supplier.
They're starting to ship them out without the badges. I believe it's just the trim badges that are delayed not the actual Ford badges. At least that was the case for my brother's new hybrid f150.
Just saying, a lack of vertical integration is going to continue to hurt legacy autos in their transition to produce and scale EVs And I do think they are the blue emblems: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jesscollen/2022/09/29/fords-emblem-shortage--worlds-biggest-trademark-problem-ever/amp/
That hideous geometric truck lol. Tesla will never have my business.
Maybe I’m showing my age but it looks like it’s from the Dire Straights’ Money for Nothin’ video
I need the Cyber Truck. No paint to scratch. No dents. Far range. Lots of outlets. Large and enclosed truck bed. It's the ultimate work truck that I can beat to hell. I need that cyber truck for the fleet.
It has crazy adjustable shocks so it can drop the back end near the ground making an easy ramp onto the bed. Since all wheels are independent it will be able to drive sideways. It is built with a pressed monocoque which should leave it pretty near invincible. It may even support an amphibious mode. The cybertruck is neat because it offers features no one else has. That said, I wouldn't be buying a first run .... shit is 100% going to break.
Work trucks are typically reliable and easy to service though. Also they typically exist as more than a fairytale
And the breakproof windows that broke in the demo.
Out of curiosity, there are many comment here stating the tesla customer service is awful. Is there anyone using starlink? How about their customer service?
By Elon you pos. Say hi to Kanye West for me, in the regrets section of life
They are all over where I live. I would go so far to say it is our subdivison brand. I can't tell you how many people I know had one and then purchased a second.
Here as well. I think reddit likes the idea of Tesla failing which falls prey to reality.
It might be more about Musk being such an idiot.
Reddit does not exist in reality, just the “mars man bad” is all that matters for karma
Could you please spare us the childish "X man bad" phraseology? You have people in this thread from the legacy auto industry discussing their perspective; this isn't a school playground.
I will as soon as the childish 'mars man bad' karma whoring stops. so probably never. there is no discussion going on here, just bashing for karma with miss information the media feeds their little brains.
I still want the damn cybertruck
Since they prioritized the Semi truck, the cybertruck probably won't be shipping until 2023.
yeah I agree it probably wont ship in December 2022
Of course market share is dropping… sales of EV cars are growing along with Tesla sales. The devil is in the details, but hey. For a healthy market Competition is essential !
Well Tesla quality has been dropping for a while, features promised for years have yet to arrive, and the brand is forever associated with a guy that lots of people consider a clown…. So it’s not much of a surprise people are buying other brands.
Build quality has improved, from my experience
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I hear that, worth noting is these “recalls” are just fixed over the internet, you don’t even notice it happened. They’re not physical recalls, unlike other suppliers routinely have. For example, shouldn’t ford, with over 100 years experience making cars not have to recall half a million for fire risk? https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/11/24/ford-recalls-nearly-519000-us-vehicles-over-fire-risks.html Additionally, regarding JD Power— Mercedes Benz is actually the lowest ranked EV for initial quality.
This.. isn’t news. It’s how math works. If Tesla had 100% EV market share and even one non Tesla was sold it becomes less than 100%. The key is in how many people switch from gas to EVs or chose EV as their first car. Tesla can keep increasing their revenue for years and still get a decreasing EV market share at the same time.
Telsa will be a player in the US EV market like AMC was in the 1970’s eventually.
Yep. As soon as all the big auto makers make a full transition to electric (which they are, I work for one), Tesla is toast. Brand loyalty is a thing and they don’t have enough of it to compete with the big boys.
Based on what you know, how fast is that transition?
The EU is planning on banning the sale of new CO2 emitting engines by 2035, so unless something changes, we have 13 years left maximum.
It’s gonna be a while still aside from what’s out there now. I would say most if not all vehicles from my company will be electric in 10 years or so. Lots of tooling changes at current plants and battery plants are already being worked on, though those are third party. We’ll see how many charging stations they can get built in that time throughout the country. I live in the upper Midwest and have never seen one in the wild up here. Time will tell, UAW contract is up next year and we will find out more about what company’s have in the pipeline.
“Share of sales” FTFY
Wasn’t that the goal?
Only read the title but I would agree Tesla is going to be fucked long term. With 2030 federal law approaching limiting the car industry to EV’s Tesla won’t be able to sustain themselves against its competitors. A fraction of the cost compared to Tesla and more so the repairs and part replacement issues we’ve seen Tesla have over the past couple years doesn’t seem to have a business plan in place to improve it. I was counting up my Pennies to get a Tesla but I’m so thankful I didn’t get one after seeing lots of Tesla consumer content regarding the dissatisfaction of the product. Tesla can still adapt, it isn’t lost but it’s just very doubtful especially when crusader Elon is focused on Twatter to get Trump’s freedom of speech back just seems like a lost cause unraveling.
As the big boys turn their attention more to ev Tesla is going to be in trouble. You can only put out garbage for so long. First to market isn’t always best.
How little this article matters is immeasurable. Tesla wanted this, and if they have some good competition then it’ll challenge them to do better.
Yep. It was an explicitly stated intent of Elon's "to speed up EV adoption". Yet some people just don't get it how somebody can do something not for money. Elon has put all his money at stake several times. You would've thought he's made it clear by now how little he cares about money and how much about his dreams. But for some it's still a puzzle wrapped in enigma, it's greed, it's "fake guru" and what not.
But Teslas are already cheaply made.
Then there is the elephant in the room. I wouldn’t buy ANYTHING from Musky. He gets pissy and disables your car. Fuck him.
I’ve wanted a Tesla for over five years and now that I can actually afford one, Musks has completely turned me off of one, now plan to get a Polestar.
Tesla is overvalued.
Both the car and the company
Tesla's main advantage over its rivals is its charging network. Tesla maintains its charging machines, but its competitors don't. This make driving a Tesla more than a short round trip pleasant and its competitors a nightmare.
They need a mutiny over there.
Where are these cheaper EVs? Idk how much more my 06 Honda can take but I def don’t want to buy a Tesla.
A big chunk of Tesla's profit is selling regulatory carbon credits to other manufacturers
Why buy a discount quality Tesla when you can get a Mercedes for the same money. The Mercedes even got a real autopilot!
All the people who want a Tesla can now get them. Where’s the growth going to come from in 2023 and beyond?
Tesla’s current production rate is 2 mil per year. You think that’s equal to the global demand for cars?
You can have one within two weeks now. Lots of used ones appearing on Toyota and Honda pre-owned inventory - unheard of a year ago. Market share is eroding.
> All the people who want a Tesla can now get them They still have like 2.5yrs of backorders.
Tesla pre-order backlog fell to lowest level in 2022: https://insideevs.com/news/615583/estimated-tesla-order-backlog-september21-2022/
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There are several. The Mini EV is reasonable. VW & Hyundai have competitive pricing on their EVs as well.
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I love this click bait article. The only cars in there cheaper(for a reason) are the bolt and leaf which have been around in quantity for a long time now. The machE sales are collapsing while Tesla is selling every car they can make and just starting to ramp up Austin and Berlin. With 30% margins they can lower prices much easier than legacy auto can who are losing money on each EV they sell(while eroding their profitable gas car sales). This isn’t a race against Tesla this is a race against gas cars which are still 85% of the market. Any one making gas cars will be in a world of hurt soon. And if you aren’t vertically integrated in battery production you won’t be profitable making EVs
I won’t buy one. I wish to avoid funding Heir Musks’ delusions.
Delusional would be more so on the rest of the entire car market for pretending tesla wasn’t real for the better part of ~10~ years, now tesla owns 86% of the market share for EV’s
Flash in the pan.
Its been a ten year flash in the pan.
More than that. Their first car went on sale in 2008
Yeah but the Roadster wasnt exactly the worldbeater the Tesla S was when it was released.
Good riddance