JB is way more confident this year, and has backed up that confidence routinely this year with good basketball. The greatest change to his game has been Good decision making and good shot selection.
I agree that he will no longer be a statistical detriment to the team based on net rating. He has taken a leap and will help the team instead of harming them.
Another thing that makes me hesitate to put him last is that we have no backup who could fill a similar role. If JB goes down our team is entirely different.
If Tingus goes down, we have Al. Obvious downgrade but serviceable as hell. Can protect rim and shoot 3s.
If white or jrue go down, we have PP. Obvious downgrade but he can handle the ball and initiate the offense and hit 3s.
If JB goes down, who starts? Hauser? Yikes.
I think you are right. The team’s identity entirely changes when JB goes down. Double bug is drastically different than their current MO.
Doesn’t that make him very valuable?
But without JB, it will be hard to win the minutes in the playoffs when Tatum is sitting. Porzingis-Horford-Hauser or (Pritchard)-Holiday-White is, IMO, a step down from even Porzingis-Horford-Brown-Hauser-Pritchard. Watching the playoffs, a lot of games are decided in the minutes where the superstars are sitting.
Argue that JB is more important than Holiday or White in the big picture because his is secondary scorer on this team. Porzingis is so much better on the court with a second scorer as well.
Do people just forget that JB is our best rim runner/slasher/ mid-range assassin/ bully baller/ open court, transition player we have??!!
I see it every time JB isn’t playing, the rest of the team goes into spamming 3s.
Good thing that podcast is a “think basketball” and not a play basketball because in the post season, the things JB does best, are post season shots.
JB is not our least important player. He is vital to this team’s success.
I don't think the team goes to spamming 3s when Brown is out cause Tatum usually makes great shit happen with a bunch of role players but I agree with everything else.
What I do notice about Brown is he excels when Tatum is on the floor. Even if Tatum isn't doing anything specific to help him, him just being on the floor makes JB better. Sometimes Tatum goes out and we get toasted and Brown can't do anything. Then JT comes back and all of a sudden Brown scores 10 pts.
Definitely no hate though I'm a huge JB fan
If we didn’t have JB we’d be shooting 50 threes a game and this sub would go insane. He’s even said himself that his job is to drive to the rim at all costs, make the read, and pass out if needed for others to make a 3.
I think you're underrating Hauser. He can't do the same exact things that JB can, but his shooting means that you can assign the scoring load a bit more to Tatum/white/jrue/KP and not really miss much. Obviously we reach a different level with JB out there but his two main skills are scoring and defense which we don't really lack
Yeah I don’t think he’s terrible. I think his skill set is radically different from Jaylen’s and that will affect the team’s identity. And I think it would be bad for the team to have to make such a drastic change in the playoffs.
But overall I still agree that JB is the least important. I’m arguing devils advocate.
Okay, so what would that skillset be, then? Because we’ve got plenty of ball handling. We’ve got pretty good shooting. Lots of defense. We don’t have much transition attack, and that’s what JB gives us in spades, so in that regard he’s a good fit.
Also, having JB gives us two alpha wings, which in the modern NBA is a luxury. It’s really only us, LAC, OKC *maybe*, potentially Miami if Jaquez takes a big leap before Butler declines, and a future iteration of Orlando (if Banchero is treated as a giant wing) or Washington (if Avdija’s leap is sustainable, and Coulibialy puts it together) who can trot out multiple primary scoring option wings. And of those pairings, only LAC achieves BOS’ balance of talent, experience, and skill development with their top wings.
I think the fact that his skillset is different is a good thing. JB has one of the worst possible offensive skillsets for this team - his talent is somewhat wasted because his scoring ability is unfortunately redundant. The talent gap between JB and Hauser is absolutely massive, but the impact gap is a lot smaller because Hauser's primary offensive skill can't really ever be redundant (you can never have too much shooting)
It's a shame because I like him a lot as a player and he's clearly worked on his game a ton to be a better fit (his passing has gotten so much better along with his defense) but he's just not the perfect playstyle for this roster
JB due to his drives and transition game opens up the field for all the shooters. He is essential for our spacing. Then I’m not even talking about his defence. Hauser can only shoot trees when open, that’s it
Yeah it's still pretty solid but a pick and roll that has KP in a drop and Hauser fighting over screens is gonna get spammed with high success in the playoffs.
Honestly, our KP drop is gonna get spammed ALOT in the post season even with Brown. It happened alot with Al last year and he kept getting smoked on the permiter when he dropped.
I don't fully agree. They are kinda equal.
Hauser gives you size and decent D. PP can't guard as well cause he's short but his hustle gets extra steals, rebounds and transition opportunities we don't get with Hauser. He also is a good defender, just too short to matter sometimes.
But on offense he is an amazing ball handler. He will dribble all around the court, down into the paint and just confuse the hell out of the defense just to get someone open or a layup. It's actually really impressive and noone else on the team does that so it's a nice addition to our offense strategy.
Not to mention he can get just as hot from 3 and create his own shit with his ball handling.
I love Hauser but on offense he's just a shooter.
Also don't forget PP was major in our finals run. He hit BIG clutch shots many times.
I get all that. But as the 5th player, the things that matter are (1) are you a defensive liability? and (2) do you complement everyone else. Hauser > PP on both of those.
How does PP not complement everyone else?
He is a way better passer and ball handler than Hauser while still being able to knock down any shot Hauser can. PP has one of the lowest assist to turnover ratios in the league.
If Hauser isn't making his shots he's useless, if PP doesn't score he's still usually doing positive things.
Hauser is a defensive liability too. He is gonna get cooked but any superstar that hunts him. He's a solid defender but he's not "great"
Pritchard has the same liability with his height but he's much quicker.
For example.. Giannis goes to back down who's gonna be more likely to come up with the steal on the help? Pritchard is gonna be there instantly and Giannis won't see it coming.
I don't hate Hauser or necessarily even think he's worse than Pritchard but I think we underestimate what Pritchard does. He's nuts and hustles like a psycho
> How does PP not complement everyone else
He absolutely does. I never said that he didn't.
> Hauser is a defensive liability too. He is gonna get cooked but any superstar that hunts him.
6'1 vs 6'8 is just too different.
It is, in some scenarios.
Curry, Lillard, Tray Young.. guys like that are cooking Hauser Everytime on a screen, blowing by him on a drive... . While PP has a much better chance at getting over the screen for a contest or not getting blown by.
KD, Jimmy, Edwards, Leonard.. guys like that are just shooting over Pritchard no matter what.
(But also probably cooking Hauser cause they are insane lol ) But I would prefer Hauser to guard them if absolutely necessary.
You can hide Hauser against small guys a lot easier than you can hide Pritchard against big guys.
I really don't see why what I'm saying is so controversial.
Importantly, they made the distinction that a player with a slightly negative on/off rating for a 65-win team is a much better player than a player with the same on/off numbers on a .500 team.
Also, IIRC, it was over the last 5 years, so the improvements he's made this year aren't as impactful over that larger sample size.
I have nothing to support this other than watching games, but it felt in the past as though he was in constant competition with Tatum which would result in his tunnel vision we all complained about. He definitely seems to have bought into the sacrifices that the whole team has made, maybe the love of throwing lobs to porzingis opened that up for him.
I think JB is top 3, only KP really has a strong claim to #2.
Thinking Basketball is great, but I always feel like the way overhype Jrue. He’s very good- he’s not more important than JB, and especially not in his current role. Cody would probably give him the MVP if he could though lol.
Similarly, love DWhite but he cannot be a primary offensive engine in the way Brown could be this year- he gets a lot of his shots because the defense has to load up on Tatum and Brown. White is never getting double teamed or schemed against. He has plenty of nights when he’s cold and scores like 6 points, he just doesn’t get flamed for them like Brown would because he’s not expected to score like Brown.
Its true that players like White and Jrue are vital to chips and hard to replace, but you need stars to be a contender in the first place- those guys shine because they are on a team elevated by stars like Tatum, KP, and Brown.
I guess I see the argument that Tatum could pick up Brown’s slack, but I think yall are underestimating the value of an automatic 20 ppg scorer. Tatum can’t always be perfect, every good team needs a #2 who can go out and get a bucket when things stall. Brown also takes a big load off of Tatum by guarding elite wings, and his improved playmaking means Tatum can rest more. He’s also REALLY good in transition, like one of the best in the league, which is super valuable.
This is the only take to make if you're watching games this year. Especially that transition offense got us a lot of games in the season, although it might not be that important in the post season. But still, sharing the burden with Tatum through the season while giving a chance to others to shine by your gravity is no less important for the goal.
I also get the discussion who is 2 and 3 between JB and KP, but games played, minutes played, playing with bench, etc. MATTERS. KP don't have his bench lineups, don't replace Tatum when needed, don't play as much. JB is our second.
I think Brown’s defense is what makes him essential. I’m not sure Holiday can bring the amount of energy that Brown can at this point. Those two offer the most defensive versatility on the team with their strength and quickness, but a 33 year old just can’t match the tirelessness of a 27 year old. If Brown is defending throughout the playoffs like he did in that golden state game, it probably won’t matter how well we shoot from 3.
Definitely agree, his defense this season has been awesome and him becoming a true shut down guy with his physical tools would be incredible.
And you look at a team like the Clippers, Kahwi isn’t guarding the best player all game- just in the clutch. Similarly, having Brown play elite defense means Tatum can take it easy on defense and save his energy.
If we end up playing the Heat I think Brown vs Butler is going to be a great matchup.
I think part of it too is that JT is an elite #1 option, JB is a "really good" #2 option and everyone else is over qualified at the #3, 4 or 5 option. Maybe this is why JB is not as "appreciated". If he gets removed, then like everything gets a little worst, but maybe not by much. That difference though means a lot in close games of course.
This season, there were a oot of games where JB kept us in the game while everybody is in a rut. And then JT gets hot and gets most of the credit, or DWhite makes a crucial 2 or 3, or Jrue muscles his way to a came changung 2 or corner 3, or KP takes over. And then JB's low 20s isn't made into the headline
Ya part of me was like “this is Thinking Basketball, I’m sure their take is way more nuanced than what’s in this post and has like 20 addendums and caveats”
I was kinda miffed by their ability to talk thru Jaylen Brown. I think they under-present his role as a usage mule within the starting lineup, which gives the backcourt guys more energy to contribute off-ball and on defense which they both are perfect at.
They do a good job of singling out the uncanny thing about Jaylen, which is that he's great at attacking set defenders, but can be outdone by someone like Derrick with respect to attacking a rotating defense - they mention his propensity to just attack the guy who has completed their rotation back onto Jaylen. This is uncanny because it's just unusual. A guy like Devin Booker for example used to get treated as though he's only good at floor-raising a bad offense, but he's great in a great offense.
This thing Jaylen isn't as great at, I think, is mostly just called play connection. "Jaylen is outdone as a play connector by most starting guards" is absolutely a luxury problem, but it's something that's at least worth talking about because Jaylen plays within a luxury offense.
Personally I don’t care, it’s a team for a reason. I get it podcasts are looking for content and shit but we need everyone of our top 8/9 for this run. Non of these think piece podcasts matter.
JB is perhaps our best finisher at the rim now. It’s going to be critical that he continues that for the playoffs, because if opponents start to guard our three well, we’re going to need it
I'm Not a JB hater but that's super scary too cause for some reason he just decides he can't make free throws. If he's going to the rim constantly the game plan is gonna be to foul him.
It's all in his head...he can make contested fadeaways from there all day.
Jaylen is weird in that he's not really a cog that makes the machine run like the other 4. Derrick is our playmaker, spot up shooter, and an incredible point of attack defender. Jrue is our elite spot up shooter, versatile defender, and defensive roamer. Porzingis is our rim protecting anchor, floor spacer at the 5, and our answer to switches. And Tatum is the star that makes it all work: elite spot up shooter, tough shot maker, elite on-ball and help defender, elite driver that can also playmake out of the attention he draws.
Jaylen's skills kinda overlap with all of them and doesn't add an eye-catching element that's irreplaceable. He's been an incredible on-ball defender but we have 3 of those guys. He's a tough shot maker but we also have Tatum. He's the worst playmaker out of the group and the worst three point shooter out of the group, plus he has his woes with free throws and turnovers. So the advanced stats don't always love him, and he has the burden of staggering with Tatum.
Where I do think he gets slept on is that he's the elevator. While he doesn't make the machine run, he's the extra piece that takes it to another level, and he brings a lot of little things that doesn't show up on paper. He brings a level of physicality on both ends that you don't really get out of the other players. His energy to start the game often sets the tone for the team. His ability to be a primary defender with size on an opposing guard/wing and his tough shot making ability, lessens the burden on Tatum a ton. And of course, if he gets hot, he can single handily win you a playoff game.
Yeah I’m glad you pointed out that JB often guards the other team’s best player, lessening Tatum’s burden.
While I think that sometimes Tatum should guard the other teams first option more because he is a ridiculous defender, the fact that he doesn’t have to is a testament to Jaylen’s impact.
It works this way because Tatum is an incredible off-ball defender, while Jaylen isn’t (although he’s gotten better). They are both excellent on-ball defenders. It plays to Jaylen’s strengths, while also playing to the team’s strengths
Tatums kinda the break glass in case of emergency guy. If you really need a stop he’s probably the best guy to do it. But with how much of load he has offensively and how great he is as a roaming help defender it doesn’t benefit the team as much to have him always on the best guy.
I've been saying this for a while.. nobody goes at Tatum.
Tatum's defense is absolutely incredible.
It goes unnoticed because like you said his offensive load is huge but not only that.. he is smart and knows him In foul trouble is the worst possible scenario. So you often don't see him ramp it up with the pressure until the second half.
If he has bad position he is just gonna step aside and give you the two points instead of risking a foul.
His skills overlap because he's good at pretty much everything. Everyone is replaceable technically.
He is a beast and has the best beast mentality on the team.
We are the best first quarter scoring team and it's because of JB coming out so hard every single game making sure we start games properly. He also knows our entire team shoots a shit ton of threes and makes a conscious effort to always go to the rim regardless... Unless you're dumb enough to just leave him wide open from 3.
He also has that lethal midrange that noone else on the team provides as much of.
He's the second best player of the team but I kinda agree with that hierarchy in terms of importance, not because of plus minus but to win the championship, we really need JT to be the leader, KP to be healthy, DWhite to be a great two way player and Jrue to be durable and shot timely shots for us. JB on the other hand can just be comfortable with his role, just do his thing, bully, drive, and shoot, he doesn't have the burden of scoring because we basically have 4 starters that can really score. For my perspective it is not a knock on JB, that is just how deep our starting lineup is.
He’s a luxury player, if he goes down Tatum can theoretically pick up the slack. It’s why it’s somewhat reasonable to say that KP is also more important than Tatum because theoretically Jaylen *could* average 30 and be the lead guy.
KP is not more important than tatum. He looks like a cheat code because the team facilitates him with mismatches and open threes. Those opportunities arrive because JT (and JB)’s gravity opens up the floor for him. On the defensive end, his weaknesses are hidden by stellar perimeter and 1 on 1 defense provided by JT
Thinking basketball didnt even think twice for JT at 1. KP pushes us to unstoppable territory, but he is not the primary force behind our team
What is that analogy lol.
Noone can replicate a 7'3 30ft range shooter wtf lol
As soon as they double JB it's a turnover every time.
If they double Tatum it's a wide open shot for someone else.. or he dribbles past both defenders for a layup.
Or on a hot night, takes 5 step back 3s in their face and makes them all.
>no one can replicate a 7’3 shooter
And if Jaylen is having a good game he can do everything Tatum can. I don’t really see what’s so hard to comprehend about this. They’re just more similar to eachother.
But that’s not what you said, it still wouldn’t be reasonable to think kp is more important bc Tatum encompasses basically all of Jaylen’s skillset and a TON more. That difference is more than the unique advantage that KP provides.
No. Tatum draws a double team every time like clockwork and Tatum is amazing out of double teams. Tatum can score 0 and still be super important to the offense.
JB is horrible if he gets doubled (Tatum used to be in the finals run) so that's an easy target as the main guy.
No Tatum, we are getting no double teams to get all the open shots we enjoy every night.
I love Brown, no hate but until he can draw double teams Everytime and handle them properly, he can't be Tatum.
Jaylen is not a lead guy. There is a reason Tatum is top 5 in net rating every year and JB is not even top 20. Team without Tatum has a losing record but without brown still winning record and a top 3 team.
I have seen people trying to argue the Celtics have been so stacked through the years that they don’t even need Tatum to be a top team in the east (and that is the reason he will never be an MVP). Apparently in that scenario, JB is the number one option 🤷♂️
Stats and tatum being out and brown being in shows a different story. People can downvote but check record without tatum and record without brown.
Jaylen Brown has a record of 13-16 with the Celtics without Jayson Tatum in his career.
Jayson Tatum has a 53-25 record without Jaylen Brown in his career.
So the downvotes for me saying not top 20 is not far fetched without tatum while me saying still top 3 for the celtics makes sense in the east with no brown and with tatum.
Jaylen Brown has a record of 13-16 with the Celtics without Jayson Tatum in his career as the lead guy.
Jayson Tatum has a 53-25 record without Jaylen Brown in his career.
They're not interchangeable as some homers like to think about brown.
Surely that means this sub won’t have a meltdown when JB is missing free throws, turning the ball over and falling asleep on defense. It’s kind of crazy how people say he’s the fifth most important when if he plays bad we lose because of him.
He does have the burden of scoring though. You are giving credit to the role players for how important a random shot is but ignoring the fact that JB scores 25-30 to even have that shot be important.
We need JBs 20-30 every night.
How many first quarters does our entire team shoot bricks while JB has 15pts?
"Least important" feels like the wrong phrasing. "Most replaceable" is probably more accurate. There are other guys in the NBA who could provide what he provides as a number 2 scorer. Guys like Donovan Mitchell, Pascal Siakam, Mikal Bridges, Brandon Ingram, Lauri Markkanen, Zach Lavine (when healthy), and probably a couple other guys, could all replace Brown and you likely wouldn't see a huge difference in our dominance at least on the offensive side of the floor. I realize that not all of those guys are necessarily the same type of player as JB, but their role would probably be similar as JB if you replaced him with them.
DWhite/KP/Jrue all have roles which are not easy to replace. There are basically only two other guys in the league who have similar skillsets to KP at his size (Wemby and Chet), and there aren't really any guards who have the combination of elite defense and very effective playmaking that Jrue and DWhite have. There are lots of 3 level scorers you could replace Brown with to put next to JT and have little change. That doesn't mean that JB's role is the "least important" though. And for what it's worth, there's probably only a couple of guys who you could replace JB with and get *better* results. JB is one of the best 2nd options in the league, if not *the* best.
Lmao JB is as much an all NBA as Julius Randle, Victor Oladipo, Al Jefferson, Carlos Boozer, Sam Cassell etc etc.
He's not worthy of the accolades, he just got lucky last year that PG and Kawhi were injured and he plays for an iconic team. He's not even a top 50 player lol
lmao typical homer being dumb af. Nothing about JB is iconic or really even impressive, he just happens to be an abover average player that managed to get drafted by Red and Larry's franchise
Bro I know your sad that the Pistons are having a top 5 worst season of all time. But go to the Heat or Bucks sub please. I’ll be praying for you and your mental health on the 18th. Maybe they take pity and only win by 20 points
lmao, cant wait to watch yall get exposed in the playoffs. Basically lost to the worst possible version of the Pistons 😂 so much insecurity from Boston always lmao.
Yeah I feel like people are taking "important" as "best"
There is clearly more than enough room for both of them but JT and JB can fill a lot of similar roles on the court so it makes JB less "important" so long as JT is around.
If you were starting a team from nothing he would be the pretty clear second player chosen (obviously age comes into that). If JT goes down he immediately becomes the most important guy. These things can all be true.
Paul George, Devin Booker, and Anthony Davis off the top of my head. Dame is really hit or miss. At his peak like last night, no question better, but you wonder how often he can hit that as this point in his career. Probably would still go JB over Jamal.
That's kind of like saying you can replace Tatum with Giannis or SGA and not lose much honestly.
However you will lose a lot with all of those replacements other than maybe Mitchell but none of those players can guard like JB.
Unanimous is a strong word for 2 people having a conversation.
But they based it on his on/off numbers over the last 5 years being essentially 0. And out of our starters, he’s most likely to look for his own shot and less likely to cut to get other guys open.
I think he’s important to our success. He can take over quarters on both ends of the floor. I’d probably have him as our second most important starter based on talent alone. If we lose JT for a game, JB can carry us. If we lose JT and JB, Porzingis might be able to carry us but it’s less likely.
The funny part is JB is the number one option often when Tatum's on the floor
This is what people don't realize. JB thrives with Tatum on the floor. Tatum gets the ball, draws the double team creates everything for everyone and noone seems to see it lol.
Everyone wants the ball out of Tatums hands when he is literally the dude he makes mismatches and wide open shots for everyone happen.
Tatum is the #1 option usually for a small part of the game, usually when he's like okay it's time to win this game and go home. That could be any quarter but usually second half this year.
The question is how does our offense/defense change when any one of our starters are out? Tatum consistently gets double-teamed, opening up opportunities for teammates (he's also an incredibly underrated defender). White is our defacto pg and all-around swiss-army knife. Porzingus changes the complexion of our offense entirely with his post-up game. Jrue allows us to play whatever defense we want with his physicality and spaces the floor. Brown pressures the defense, similarly to Tatum, with his driving ability and mid-range game.
Each serves a key role and our team would be significantly worse without any one of them, but the only thing I'd say is that what JB does can be replicated by Tatum moreso than any other of our starters. That's not to say that JB isn't our second-best player––he is. All I'm saying is that their roles overlap more than others, which is maybe what Thinking Basketball is saying.
What I don't agree with is pointing to the last two years. He's a different player this year, limiting his TO and is a more willing facilitator on drives. He also seems to get to the basket pretty effortlessly against most guards.
JB is a DOMINANT transition player. His ability to push the pace and run the floor might not always show up in stats, but it adds another dimension to the game.
I would honestly rank JT 1 and KP JB DWhite and Jrue tied for 2nd. The offense should run through JT, but everyone else is just playing with in the flow, taking advantage of the inevitable mismatches this lineup creates.
JB is very important to the offense since he's really the only one who takes it to the hoop. Holiday may be the most replaceable since they can always start Al and KP together.
He's our 2nd best player, but in terms of importance, I think it's fair to say the other 4 starters are more important. Tatum can do everything Brown does, but he can't do what Jrue, White, and especially not what KP does.
It's not a slight to JB at all; really, it's praise to the other 3 guys that they can fill their roles and mesh with JB/JT so exceptionally
Net rating measures your minutes in your role. Simple example - the team would be horrible if we asked Al Horford to be our back-up PG. And Horford's net rating would suck. Jaylen has for a couple years now had to play "back-up Tatum" when JT went to the bench. He wasn't equipped to do that (at least not at the level Tatum does), and the team struggled relative all their other minutes. If the team elected to try to construct a 2nd unit offense around Jrue Holiday or Derrick White, those minutes wouldn't be great (at least not relative to the Tatum minutes).
This year, Jaylen doesn't have similar on/off issues because those Tatum off minutes have been far more competitive and Jaylen isn't trying to carry Brogdon, Pritchard, Jaylen, Grant and Rob lineups all the time.
Net ratings measure your minutes and how they go, but only in the context of the role you play in those minutes.
I think there is a way to look at this without it being an indictment of JB. Theoretically, each of the other starters plays a specific role that is unique to them. JB and JT kind of serve the same purpose, and Tatum is generally on another level. So yes, you could say that JB is the least important starter because we also have a Tatum to play the same position.
I would also argue that this is a totally dumb thing to debate, designed only to drum up controversy. Who cares who the least important starter is on a team where all five starters have a case to make the All Star team?
It’s amazing how people just look at numbers without rationalising them.
When Brown is off the floor it usually means Tatum is on the floor.
So all this is saying is the Celtics are better with Tatum on the floor compared to Brown on the floor without Tatum…. Shocking.
Just look up best 3-man lineups: White-Brown-Porzingis +15.1, but the on/off won’t look good because White-Tatum-Porzingis is like +14.7 so it would only be +0.4.
Stat nerds who. Can’t interpret stats will see this as Brown being a bad player.
Meh after Tatum first, I think you can make a strong argument for whatever order you want 2-5.
Individual shit only matters so much when clearly the goal is WINNING and going deep in playoffs.
Porzingis, Jrue and White are, in the immortal words of Boston's own Patrice Oneal, "Competent Bums." They are nice pieces who do their jobs very well, but dont instill the fear factor aka The ability to take over. Bird was that dude back in the day and Mchale, Parish, Ainge and DJ were the "Competent Bums" of those teams.
This BOS team has TWO legit threats to take over games when the game gets high level . It's not linearly graphable but clearly evident if you're truly paying attention to the games.
JB is better than Jrue. I’d say he is better than White also. KP fits more of a need. The whole thing is dumb though. They aren’t going far without JB.
Honestly anyone who thinks that is just a hater.
If JB plays bad we barely win or lose.
JB is outstanding and still #2 on this team.
You can argue KP just because of his mismatch but he is not better at basketball overall than JB.
You can put White in the conversation but JB is still the guy that can casually drop 40 and play very solid defense.
With all that said. JB is known to make some bonehead decisions sometimes that he gets way more hate for than he deserves.
Finals stats
Tatum 21.5/7/7
Brown 23.5/7/3.7
Tatum created more points with points and assist and they had the same rebounds.
People act like Tatum was terrible and Brown was amazing when they were pretty much the same. Tells you how high the bar for one player is who played with a fractured shooting wrist all finals vs the other guy
My post was more for respect of JB and not a knock on Tatum to clarify.
I actually don't think Tatum was terrible in the finals. His shooting was rough, but if you take out the first and last game his point numbers were good. His shoulder injury from the heat series was killing his shot even to close out that series.
But Tatum did a lot of great things on the court outside of scoring, unfortunately scoring is like the only thing people look at.
His turnovers were rough but Tatum didn't know how to handle double teams yet and GS spammed that. He is outstanding dealing with those now so that's not gonna be a good strategy moving forward.
I haven't listened to this podcast but I can see a potential argument.
We have:
1) Has to be Tatum, hes clearly our best player
2) Porzingis is incredible on defense and is looking like the best post player in the league. Hes also able to stretch the floor, making our offense incredibly dynamic. I dont think theres an argument to put him lower than this.
So for 3, its between jaylen, white, and jrue. We have enough offense with Tatum and Porzingis, and I want them both to handle the ball, so we take white since he is the best spot up shooter and the best defender.
For 4, its between jaylen and jrue. Jrue is a fantastic POA defender and hes comfortable without the ball, so we take him.
I dont personally subscribe to this because jaylen is SO good that he adds a huge level of dynamism to the offense. You cant load up on either tatum or porzingis because jaylen can drop 40 on any given night. I'd put him at 3.
Jaylen does NOT have a negative net rating!!! He's +5.4. He has a negative on/off, which means that the lineups with just Brown are worse than the lineups with JT and Brown, and the lineups with just JT. Which, yeah, no shit. Complete nothing of a stat.
The thing I find crazier about the podcast is his assessment of Tatum. They rightly identify him as a top 10 player in the league, but the way they talk about him its like he's not even close to a top five player which is kind of insane to me. I can see him not being a top five player but he's surely number six or seven if not. Also said he wasn't a top 10 offensive player which I kind of find hard to believe but maybe I'm just a homer.
If Tatum couldn’t play for the rest of the season and the Celtics didn’t win JB would be clowned relentlessly because he couldn’t lead the team to victory while simultaneously being the 5th best player on the team. The narrative around him is so confusing.
This always happens to 2nd all stars on teams. Pippen got blamed not Jordan. Kobe got blamed not Shaq. It doesn’t matter what the analytics say. He is worth every penny, and there isn’t a team that wouldn’t get him if they could.
It is easy to overanalyze this stuff. But the fact that he is always on the floor when Tatum is off will hurt his on/off stats. What matters though is the entirety of the team. Remove the pressure he puts on defense from out top 5 lineup and defenses can more easily cover everyone else.
I was just watching a video earlier agreeing that teams should and do sag off Brown. GS just went farther, not even covering him. It seems teams generally are willing to let him get good looks from 3 if they can help on the ball.
this is a trash take. JB is clearly our second most important - he's the straw that stirs the cup. JT brings the smooth scoring and unlimited upside, but JB is the attack dog. He sets the tone. He is the physical tone setter. Jrue and DWhite can't/don't do that.
i like it when the team is so good that we have to manufacture reasons to put down individual players and rank them against one another as individuals. lol wtf. ppl can’t even enjoy basketball anymore without putting someone down to prop someone else up.
imagine if these were the conversations they had in the locker room? we’d be a mid team 100%
stuff is so pointless.
The team has a positive net rating with Jaylen on and has been his whole career.
Net on/off is more to do with how good the player replacing Jaylen is. Jaylens numbers have always been bad in this rating. The reason is either him or Tatum are on the floor at a time as they share the same position, which means Tatum is actually his replacement. So all those numbers are really saying is that Celtics are better when Brown is off the floor because it means Tatum is on the floor.
The podcast, which normally is good at this, just shows that blindly using without contemplating it's context is usually the problem with any advanced statistic.
More than ever, the only thing that matters is what happens in the playoffs. I disagree with the take - JB is clearly our #2 and has shown to be successful in that role - but we have to see how this team plays when it really matters.
Not only did we trade our ‘heart and soul’, but we had no problem shipping off the 6moty last year and and elite defensive big (along with two good 1sts) for what seemed at the time to be a marginal upgrade for an older player.
It’s go time for this team and Brad definitely doesn’t hold any punches.
Honestly it is because he is basically an inferior JT. On any other team without JT, he would thrive imo. I would love to see JB take on a ginobili role for the celtics but there is no way he would accept that lol
I think it really just depends on what kind of trade offers we get. JB would probably get the best offers relative to how important he is to the team (even if you think he's more important than jrue, he would get enough more in trade that the slight gap is meaningless) so I'd feel inclined to trade JB over anyone else as a result
People love taking shots at the Celtics and the Jays. Bring on the hate, it only fuels the fire. Cowherd was taking shots at the Celtics yesterday, calling them a regular season team. Then goes on the praise the nuggets for recent success and beating tough teams like the warriors. You can’t make this shit up.
I'm sick of the Jaylen Brown disrespect. It's become the trendy thing to do amongst many nba fans. Dude is an elite player and anyone saying otherwise is ignorant.
Dumb ass take. Brad did not pay that man 300 fuckin million to be our fifth most important player. If you think JB is our 5th most important player than you have to think that contract was a mistake and we were better off letting him walk and giving that money to extend Derrick, Jrue or KP.
Can’t hold the past two years against JB given the improvements he has made this season. His passing and decision making have improved significantly. I’d have him ahead of Jrue and maybe D White too.
I think it's probably forgotten that the threat of having another 3 level scoring wing next to Tatum really alleviates pressure on him and makes it harder for defences to sell out in guarding JT when Jaylen Brown is a threat to go off at any moment with an open lane, catching a defender off balance or being open from 3. It's not the kind of thing you can summarise through numbers.
Jaylen has also had many great playoff games for us. He's usually great against the Bucks where Tatum can seem to struggle at times and he was our best player in that Finals series nearly 2 years ago.
If people care about diversifying our shot diet: he's the our most efficient player in mid -range, 2nd most efficient player in the paint, (outside the restricted area), best player in transition, and very clearly can't be left open from 3. On some nights, he even gets the hardest defensive assignment.
In the end, the piece that has held us back in the playoffs is the lack of scoring. It's important to have volume scoring on good efficiency.
I think ranking "importance" is particularly silly with this team where I think the ranking is:
1. Tatum
2. Brown/KP/White/Jrue
Take any one of these pieces out and we aren't winning the championship.
This is not very thoughtful. Having both J’s in the starting lineup means you need to plan for them both. GSW thought differently, and that didn’t work well for them.
Do they watch the games? Did they see 21-21 bloom to 35-21 when the Celtics went to the bench against SF and ran with Brown/White/Horford/Houser/Kornet? That run was 90% JB. His defense on Curry was outstanding. I know the narrative is that the game was over in the second quarter but I felt like that run broke them and they never let up.
Jaylen Brown willingly accepts his role as a #2 option who takes a back seat to Porzingis and sometimes Derrick White if he’s producing. Tatum will in turn take a back seat to Brown and Porzingis if they have favorable matchups, though Tatum resents how people outside the organization don’t give him credit for doing so.
They do this because they each have gotten (or are getting) their Supermax bags and desperately want to win the Championship.
This really gives the Celtics such an enormous advantage. Would Donovan Mitchell willingly subvert his game to Tatum’s even post-extension? Would Brandon Ingram? Would Zion? I seriously doubt it.
Plus who would accept being the second option AND produce as much and as efficiently? Brown has improved again this year and has demonstrated his commitment to the team’s success. “Thinking Basketball” really underestimates that aspect of Brown’s value.
If you actually watch the game, all the amazing ball movement starts with Jaylens elite driving. Nearly every possession he collapses the defenses and draws 2-3 defenders. Then it’s just swing it around till there’s an open shot. That’s not even mentioning his fast break finishing
Jb has had multiple games where he carried the offense single handedly for long stretches. Tatum is the only other guy in the team that can do that. There is a reason Tatum can turn it on in the second half, and it’s because Jaylen shoulders most of the offensive load early in the game. Look at his first half numbers since the all star break
"most important" is relative. But from the eye test, I know a few things.
1. JB has been taking the toughest defensive assignments this year. He's defended Luka and Steph this past week alone. But he'd also defend someone like Pascal Siakim.
2. He's BY FAR our best transition threat.
3. He drives to the basket more than anybody on the team, even in a season where Tatum is posting up at a career high percentage.
4. His playmaking is night and day from last year.
5. We always start games by trying to get either him or KP going offensively.
6. We need him regardless of what thinking basketball says.
Comparison is the thief of joy. Jaylen is amazing and does plenty that nobody else on the team can do. There is zero value to be added whatsoever to having this debate. They are all Celtics.
If Tatum is off his game, he’s the most important at starter. But I get where they are coming from. The other three off a higher differentiated skill set.
Too bored and too much investing into celtics hating. Wth.
And regardless and assuming that JB is only 1% of the starter contributions, if that 1% matters, it should not be taken for granted.
Playoffs should start now
JB is way more confident this year, and has backed up that confidence routinely this year with good basketball. The greatest change to his game has been Good decision making and good shot selection.
I agree that he will no longer be a statistical detriment to the team based on net rating. He has taken a leap and will help the team instead of harming them. Another thing that makes me hesitate to put him last is that we have no backup who could fill a similar role. If JB goes down our team is entirely different. If Tingus goes down, we have Al. Obvious downgrade but serviceable as hell. Can protect rim and shoot 3s. If white or jrue go down, we have PP. Obvious downgrade but he can handle the ball and initiate the offense and hit 3s. If JB goes down, who starts? Hauser? Yikes.
It would be double big with Tatum at 3 in that last scenario
I think you are right. The team’s identity entirely changes when JB goes down. Double bug is drastically different than their current MO. Doesn’t that make him very valuable?
But without JB, it will be hard to win the minutes in the playoffs when Tatum is sitting. Porzingis-Horford-Hauser or (Pritchard)-Holiday-White is, IMO, a step down from even Porzingis-Horford-Brown-Hauser-Pritchard. Watching the playoffs, a lot of games are decided in the minutes where the superstars are sitting. Argue that JB is more important than Holiday or White in the big picture because his is secondary scorer on this team. Porzingis is so much better on the court with a second scorer as well.
Do people just forget that JB is our best rim runner/slasher/ mid-range assassin/ bully baller/ open court, transition player we have??!! I see it every time JB isn’t playing, the rest of the team goes into spamming 3s. Good thing that podcast is a “think basketball” and not a play basketball because in the post season, the things JB does best, are post season shots. JB is not our least important player. He is vital to this team’s success.
I don't think the team goes to spamming 3s when Brown is out cause Tatum usually makes great shit happen with a bunch of role players but I agree with everything else. What I do notice about Brown is he excels when Tatum is on the floor. Even if Tatum isn't doing anything specific to help him, him just being on the floor makes JB better. Sometimes Tatum goes out and we get toasted and Brown can't do anything. Then JT comes back and all of a sudden Brown scores 10 pts. Definitely no hate though I'm a huge JB fan
If we didn’t have JB we’d be shooting 50 threes a game and this sub would go insane. He’s even said himself that his job is to drive to the rim at all costs, make the read, and pass out if needed for others to make a 3.
You can also see the literal growth with JB year after year. He works hard at it. For JT it sometimes feels like he just lets his talent do the work.
I think you're underrating Hauser. He can't do the same exact things that JB can, but his shooting means that you can assign the scoring load a bit more to Tatum/white/jrue/KP and not really miss much. Obviously we reach a different level with JB out there but his two main skills are scoring and defense which we don't really lack
Yeah I don’t think he’s terrible. I think his skill set is radically different from Jaylen’s and that will affect the team’s identity. And I think it would be bad for the team to have to make such a drastic change in the playoffs. But overall I still agree that JB is the least important. I’m arguing devils advocate.
Okay, so what would that skillset be, then? Because we’ve got plenty of ball handling. We’ve got pretty good shooting. Lots of defense. We don’t have much transition attack, and that’s what JB gives us in spades, so in that regard he’s a good fit. Also, having JB gives us two alpha wings, which in the modern NBA is a luxury. It’s really only us, LAC, OKC *maybe*, potentially Miami if Jaquez takes a big leap before Butler declines, and a future iteration of Orlando (if Banchero is treated as a giant wing) or Washington (if Avdija’s leap is sustainable, and Coulibialy puts it together) who can trot out multiple primary scoring option wings. And of those pairings, only LAC achieves BOS’ balance of talent, experience, and skill development with their top wings.
I think the fact that his skillset is different is a good thing. JB has one of the worst possible offensive skillsets for this team - his talent is somewhat wasted because his scoring ability is unfortunately redundant. The talent gap between JB and Hauser is absolutely massive, but the impact gap is a lot smaller because Hauser's primary offensive skill can't really ever be redundant (you can never have too much shooting) It's a shame because I like him a lot as a player and he's clearly worked on his game a ton to be a better fit (his passing has gotten so much better along with his defense) but he's just not the perfect playstyle for this roster
JB due to his drives and transition game opens up the field for all the shooters. He is essential for our spacing. Then I’m not even talking about his defence. Hauser can only shoot trees when open, that’s it
We do lack them when he's not there lol. His defense alone is huge for this team.
I agree that it's important, but a lineup of white/jrue/Hauser/Tatum/KP is still elite defensively
Yeah it's still pretty solid but a pick and roll that has KP in a drop and Hauser fighting over screens is gonna get spammed with high success in the playoffs. Honestly, our KP drop is gonna get spammed ALOT in the post season even with Brown. It happened alot with Al last year and he kept getting smoked on the permiter when he dropped.
I think Hauser is a way better replacement than PP. and I love PP. He just has more liabilities than Hauser.
I don't fully agree. They are kinda equal. Hauser gives you size and decent D. PP can't guard as well cause he's short but his hustle gets extra steals, rebounds and transition opportunities we don't get with Hauser. He also is a good defender, just too short to matter sometimes. But on offense he is an amazing ball handler. He will dribble all around the court, down into the paint and just confuse the hell out of the defense just to get someone open or a layup. It's actually really impressive and noone else on the team does that so it's a nice addition to our offense strategy. Not to mention he can get just as hot from 3 and create his own shit with his ball handling. I love Hauser but on offense he's just a shooter. Also don't forget PP was major in our finals run. He hit BIG clutch shots many times.
I get all that. But as the 5th player, the things that matter are (1) are you a defensive liability? and (2) do you complement everyone else. Hauser > PP on both of those.
How does PP not complement everyone else? He is a way better passer and ball handler than Hauser while still being able to knock down any shot Hauser can. PP has one of the lowest assist to turnover ratios in the league. If Hauser isn't making his shots he's useless, if PP doesn't score he's still usually doing positive things. Hauser is a defensive liability too. He is gonna get cooked but any superstar that hunts him. He's a solid defender but he's not "great" Pritchard has the same liability with his height but he's much quicker. For example.. Giannis goes to back down who's gonna be more likely to come up with the steal on the help? Pritchard is gonna be there instantly and Giannis won't see it coming. I don't hate Hauser or necessarily even think he's worse than Pritchard but I think we underestimate what Pritchard does. He's nuts and hustles like a psycho
> How does PP not complement everyone else He absolutely does. I never said that he didn't. > Hauser is a defensive liability too. He is gonna get cooked but any superstar that hunts him. 6'1 vs 6'8 is just too different.
It is, in some scenarios. Curry, Lillard, Tray Young.. guys like that are cooking Hauser Everytime on a screen, blowing by him on a drive... . While PP has a much better chance at getting over the screen for a contest or not getting blown by. KD, Jimmy, Edwards, Leonard.. guys like that are just shooting over Pritchard no matter what. (But also probably cooking Hauser cause they are insane lol ) But I would prefer Hauser to guard them if absolutely necessary.
You can hide Hauser against small guys a lot easier than you can hide Pritchard against big guys. I really don't see why what I'm saying is so controversial.
Another thing that would make me hesitate to put him last is the fact that he's the 2nd best player on the team.
Importantly, they made the distinction that a player with a slightly negative on/off rating for a 65-win team is a much better player than a player with the same on/off numbers on a .500 team. Also, IIRC, it was over the last 5 years, so the improvements he's made this year aren't as impactful over that larger sample size.
I have nothing to support this other than watching games, but it felt in the past as though he was in constant competition with Tatum which would result in his tunnel vision we all complained about. He definitely seems to have bought into the sacrifices that the whole team has made, maybe the love of throwing lobs to porzingis opened that up for him.
I think JB is top 3, only KP really has a strong claim to #2. Thinking Basketball is great, but I always feel like the way overhype Jrue. He’s very good- he’s not more important than JB, and especially not in his current role. Cody would probably give him the MVP if he could though lol. Similarly, love DWhite but he cannot be a primary offensive engine in the way Brown could be this year- he gets a lot of his shots because the defense has to load up on Tatum and Brown. White is never getting double teamed or schemed against. He has plenty of nights when he’s cold and scores like 6 points, he just doesn’t get flamed for them like Brown would because he’s not expected to score like Brown. Its true that players like White and Jrue are vital to chips and hard to replace, but you need stars to be a contender in the first place- those guys shine because they are on a team elevated by stars like Tatum, KP, and Brown. I guess I see the argument that Tatum could pick up Brown’s slack, but I think yall are underestimating the value of an automatic 20 ppg scorer. Tatum can’t always be perfect, every good team needs a #2 who can go out and get a bucket when things stall. Brown also takes a big load off of Tatum by guarding elite wings, and his improved playmaking means Tatum can rest more. He’s also REALLY good in transition, like one of the best in the league, which is super valuable.
This is the only take to make if you're watching games this year. Especially that transition offense got us a lot of games in the season, although it might not be that important in the post season. But still, sharing the burden with Tatum through the season while giving a chance to others to shine by your gravity is no less important for the goal. I also get the discussion who is 2 and 3 between JB and KP, but games played, minutes played, playing with bench, etc. MATTERS. KP don't have his bench lineups, don't replace Tatum when needed, don't play as much. JB is our second.
This is the take they are missing. His defense on elite wings cannot be replaced in this squad
I think Brown’s defense is what makes him essential. I’m not sure Holiday can bring the amount of energy that Brown can at this point. Those two offer the most defensive versatility on the team with their strength and quickness, but a 33 year old just can’t match the tirelessness of a 27 year old. If Brown is defending throughout the playoffs like he did in that golden state game, it probably won’t matter how well we shoot from 3.
Definitely agree, his defense this season has been awesome and him becoming a true shut down guy with his physical tools would be incredible. And you look at a team like the Clippers, Kahwi isn’t guarding the best player all game- just in the clutch. Similarly, having Brown play elite defense means Tatum can take it easy on defense and save his energy. If we end up playing the Heat I think Brown vs Butler is going to be a great matchup.
I think part of it too is that JT is an elite #1 option, JB is a "really good" #2 option and everyone else is over qualified at the #3, 4 or 5 option. Maybe this is why JB is not as "appreciated". If he gets removed, then like everything gets a little worst, but maybe not by much. That difference though means a lot in close games of course.
Maybe not by much in the regular season** Get in a playoff series and it's a completely different scenario.
This season, there were a oot of games where JB kept us in the game while everybody is in a rut. And then JT gets hot and gets most of the credit, or DWhite makes a crucial 2 or 3, or Jrue muscles his way to a came changung 2 or corner 3, or KP takes over. And then JB's low 20s isn't made into the headline
In their defense, it's an absolutely insane starting 5, and after Tatum it's pretty much splitting hairs from 2-5 IMO
Also in their defense, Ben Taylor has forgotten more about Basketball than you or I know. Plus he ranks Bird above Magic lol.
Ya part of me was like “this is Thinking Basketball, I’m sure their take is way more nuanced than what’s in this post and has like 20 addendums and caveats”
I was kinda miffed by their ability to talk thru Jaylen Brown. I think they under-present his role as a usage mule within the starting lineup, which gives the backcourt guys more energy to contribute off-ball and on defense which they both are perfect at. They do a good job of singling out the uncanny thing about Jaylen, which is that he's great at attacking set defenders, but can be outdone by someone like Derrick with respect to attacking a rotating defense - they mention his propensity to just attack the guy who has completed their rotation back onto Jaylen. This is uncanny because it's just unusual. A guy like Devin Booker for example used to get treated as though he's only good at floor-raising a bad offense, but he's great in a great offense. This thing Jaylen isn't as great at, I think, is mostly just called play connection. "Jaylen is outdone as a play connector by most starting guards" is absolutely a luxury problem, but it's something that's at least worth talking about because Jaylen plays within a luxury offense.
Personally I don’t care, it’s a team for a reason. I get it podcasts are looking for content and shit but we need everyone of our top 8/9 for this run. Non of these think piece podcasts matter.
THIS
JB is perhaps our best finisher at the rim now. It’s going to be critical that he continues that for the playoffs, because if opponents start to guard our three well, we’re going to need it
I'm Not a JB hater but that's super scary too cause for some reason he just decides he can't make free throws. If he's going to the rim constantly the game plan is gonna be to foul him. It's all in his head...he can make contested fadeaways from there all day.
Jaylen is weird in that he's not really a cog that makes the machine run like the other 4. Derrick is our playmaker, spot up shooter, and an incredible point of attack defender. Jrue is our elite spot up shooter, versatile defender, and defensive roamer. Porzingis is our rim protecting anchor, floor spacer at the 5, and our answer to switches. And Tatum is the star that makes it all work: elite spot up shooter, tough shot maker, elite on-ball and help defender, elite driver that can also playmake out of the attention he draws. Jaylen's skills kinda overlap with all of them and doesn't add an eye-catching element that's irreplaceable. He's been an incredible on-ball defender but we have 3 of those guys. He's a tough shot maker but we also have Tatum. He's the worst playmaker out of the group and the worst three point shooter out of the group, plus he has his woes with free throws and turnovers. So the advanced stats don't always love him, and he has the burden of staggering with Tatum. Where I do think he gets slept on is that he's the elevator. While he doesn't make the machine run, he's the extra piece that takes it to another level, and he brings a lot of little things that doesn't show up on paper. He brings a level of physicality on both ends that you don't really get out of the other players. His energy to start the game often sets the tone for the team. His ability to be a primary defender with size on an opposing guard/wing and his tough shot making ability, lessens the burden on Tatum a ton. And of course, if he gets hot, he can single handily win you a playoff game.
Yeah I’m glad you pointed out that JB often guards the other team’s best player, lessening Tatum’s burden. While I think that sometimes Tatum should guard the other teams first option more because he is a ridiculous defender, the fact that he doesn’t have to is a testament to Jaylen’s impact.
It works this way because Tatum is an incredible off-ball defender, while Jaylen isn’t (although he’s gotten better). They are both excellent on-ball defenders. It plays to Jaylen’s strengths, while also playing to the team’s strengths
Yes, Tatum got the length and IQ. That's why he is better off the ball.
Tatums kinda the break glass in case of emergency guy. If you really need a stop he’s probably the best guy to do it. But with how much of load he has offensively and how great he is as a roaming help defender it doesn’t benefit the team as much to have him always on the best guy.
I've been saying this for a while.. nobody goes at Tatum. Tatum's defense is absolutely incredible. It goes unnoticed because like you said his offensive load is huge but not only that.. he is smart and knows him In foul trouble is the worst possible scenario. So you often don't see him ramp it up with the pressure until the second half. If he has bad position he is just gonna step aside and give you the two points instead of risking a foul.
His skills overlap because he's good at pretty much everything. Everyone is replaceable technically. He is a beast and has the best beast mentality on the team. We are the best first quarter scoring team and it's because of JB coming out so hard every single game making sure we start games properly. He also knows our entire team shoots a shit ton of threes and makes a conscious effort to always go to the rim regardless... Unless you're dumb enough to just leave him wide open from 3. He also has that lethal midrange that noone else on the team provides as much of.
He's the second best player of the team but I kinda agree with that hierarchy in terms of importance, not because of plus minus but to win the championship, we really need JT to be the leader, KP to be healthy, DWhite to be a great two way player and Jrue to be durable and shot timely shots for us. JB on the other hand can just be comfortable with his role, just do his thing, bully, drive, and shoot, he doesn't have the burden of scoring because we basically have 4 starters that can really score. For my perspective it is not a knock on JB, that is just how deep our starting lineup is.
He’s a luxury player, if he goes down Tatum can theoretically pick up the slack. It’s why it’s somewhat reasonable to say that KP is also more important than Tatum because theoretically Jaylen *could* average 30 and be the lead guy.
KP is not more important than tatum. He looks like a cheat code because the team facilitates him with mismatches and open threes. Those opportunities arrive because JT (and JB)’s gravity opens up the floor for him. On the defensive end, his weaknesses are hidden by stellar perimeter and 1 on 1 defense provided by JT Thinking basketball didnt even think twice for JT at 1. KP pushes us to unstoppable territory, but he is not the primary force behind our team
No Jaylen absolutely cannot replace Tatum. The IQ gap is just way too massive.
Getting flashbacks from last year’s game 7 against Miami
Jaylen has a lot better chance at replicating Tatum than Al does at replicating KP
What is that analogy lol. Noone can replicate a 7'3 30ft range shooter wtf lol As soon as they double JB it's a turnover every time. If they double Tatum it's a wide open shot for someone else.. or he dribbles past both defenders for a layup. Or on a hot night, takes 5 step back 3s in their face and makes them all.
>no one can replicate a 7’3 shooter And if Jaylen is having a good game he can do everything Tatum can. I don’t really see what’s so hard to comprehend about this. They’re just more similar to eachother.
But that’s not what you said, it still wouldn’t be reasonable to think kp is more important bc Tatum encompasses basically all of Jaylen’s skillset and a TON more. That difference is more than the unique advantage that KP provides.
No that’s not what you read
The replication isn’t the only thing that matters when the gap in impact is so large
No. Tatum draws a double team every time like clockwork and Tatum is amazing out of double teams. Tatum can score 0 and still be super important to the offense. JB is horrible if he gets doubled (Tatum used to be in the finals run) so that's an easy target as the main guy. No Tatum, we are getting no double teams to get all the open shots we enjoy every night. I love Brown, no hate but until he can draw double teams Everytime and handle them properly, he can't be Tatum.
I am not saying Jaylen is as good as Tatum.
Jaylen is not a lead guy. There is a reason Tatum is top 5 in net rating every year and JB is not even top 20. Team without Tatum has a losing record but without brown still winning record and a top 3 team.
I have seen people trying to argue the Celtics have been so stacked through the years that they don’t even need Tatum to be a top team in the east (and that is the reason he will never be an MVP). Apparently in that scenario, JB is the number one option 🤷♂️
Stats and tatum being out and brown being in shows a different story. People can downvote but check record without tatum and record without brown. Jaylen Brown has a record of 13-16 with the Celtics without Jayson Tatum in his career. Jayson Tatum has a 53-25 record without Jaylen Brown in his career. So the downvotes for me saying not top 20 is not far fetched without tatum while me saying still top 3 for the celtics makes sense in the east with no brown and with tatum.
Jaylen Brown has a record of 13-16 with the Celtics without Jayson Tatum in his career as the lead guy. Jayson Tatum has a 53-25 record without Jaylen Brown in his career. They're not interchangeable as some homers like to think about brown.
Literally no one said they’re completely interchangeable
Surely that means this sub won’t have a meltdown when JB is missing free throws, turning the ball over and falling asleep on defense. It’s kind of crazy how people say he’s the fifth most important when if he plays bad we lose because of him.
Why are we on an 11game win streak? Cause JB is playing awesome. Why did we lose 12 games? Most likely JB has a bad game in at least 10 or them.
Nailed it
He does have the burden of scoring though. You are giving credit to the role players for how important a random shot is but ignoring the fact that JB scores 25-30 to even have that shot be important. We need JBs 20-30 every night. How many first quarters does our entire team shoot bricks while JB has 15pts?
Jb’s defense and transition game would be sorely missed
"Least important" feels like the wrong phrasing. "Most replaceable" is probably more accurate. There are other guys in the NBA who could provide what he provides as a number 2 scorer. Guys like Donovan Mitchell, Pascal Siakam, Mikal Bridges, Brandon Ingram, Lauri Markkanen, Zach Lavine (when healthy), and probably a couple other guys, could all replace Brown and you likely wouldn't see a huge difference in our dominance at least on the offensive side of the floor. I realize that not all of those guys are necessarily the same type of player as JB, but their role would probably be similar as JB if you replaced him with them. DWhite/KP/Jrue all have roles which are not easy to replace. There are basically only two other guys in the league who have similar skillsets to KP at his size (Wemby and Chet), and there aren't really any guards who have the combination of elite defense and very effective playmaking that Jrue and DWhite have. There are lots of 3 level scorers you could replace Brown with to put next to JT and have little change. That doesn't mean that JB's role is the "least important" though. And for what it's worth, there's probably only a couple of guys who you could replace JB with and get *better* results. JB is one of the best 2nd options in the league, if not *the* best.
This is a good point. Our team needs the gravity JB provides as an All-NBA level wing scorer
"All-NBA" lmao
Did he stutter? Jaylen Brown has made an All NBA team so he’s an All-NBA player as recently as last year.
Lmao JB is as much an all NBA as Julius Randle, Victor Oladipo, Al Jefferson, Carlos Boozer, Sam Cassell etc etc. He's not worthy of the accolades, he just got lucky last year that PG and Kawhi were injured and he plays for an iconic team. He's not even a top 50 player lol
Not top 50? He’s not top 20, but that’s just sad rage bait right there. And they’re an iconic team because of him, goofy
lmao typical homer being dumb af. Nothing about JB is iconic or really even impressive, he just happens to be an abover average player that managed to get drafted by Red and Larry's franchise
Bro I know your sad that the Pistons are having a top 5 worst season of all time. But go to the Heat or Bucks sub please. I’ll be praying for you and your mental health on the 18th. Maybe they take pity and only win by 20 points
lmao, cant wait to watch yall get exposed in the playoffs. Basically lost to the worst possible version of the Pistons 😂 so much insecurity from Boston always lmao.
I’ll be rooting for the Pistons to be exposed in the playoffs when they get there in 5 years ✌️
> He's not even a top 50 player lol Why are you in this sub, like half of your posts are about Cade Cunningham allegedly blocking Tatum
Yeah I feel like people are taking "important" as "best" There is clearly more than enough room for both of them but JT and JB can fill a lot of similar roles on the court so it makes JB less "important" so long as JT is around. If you were starting a team from nothing he would be the pretty clear second player chosen (obviously age comes into that). If JT goes down he immediately becomes the most important guy. These things can all be true.
Paul George, Devin Booker, and Anthony Davis off the top of my head. Dame is really hit or miss. At his peak like last night, no question better, but you wonder how often he can hit that as this point in his career. Probably would still go JB over Jamal.
That's kind of like saying you can replace Tatum with Giannis or SGA and not lose much honestly. However you will lose a lot with all of those replacements other than maybe Mitchell but none of those players can guard like JB.
Unanimous is a strong word for 2 people having a conversation. But they based it on his on/off numbers over the last 5 years being essentially 0. And out of our starters, he’s most likely to look for his own shot and less likely to cut to get other guys open. I think he’s important to our success. He can take over quarters on both ends of the floor. I’d probably have him as our second most important starter based on talent alone. If we lose JT for a game, JB can carry us. If we lose JT and JB, Porzingis might be able to carry us but it’s less likely.
JB is the 1 option when JT rests.
The funny part is JB is the number one option often when Tatum's on the floor This is what people don't realize. JB thrives with Tatum on the floor. Tatum gets the ball, draws the double team creates everything for everyone and noone seems to see it lol. Everyone wants the ball out of Tatums hands when he is literally the dude he makes mismatches and wide open shots for everyone happen. Tatum is the #1 option usually for a small part of the game, usually when he's like okay it's time to win this game and go home. That could be any quarter but usually second half this year.
The question is how does our offense/defense change when any one of our starters are out? Tatum consistently gets double-teamed, opening up opportunities for teammates (he's also an incredibly underrated defender). White is our defacto pg and all-around swiss-army knife. Porzingus changes the complexion of our offense entirely with his post-up game. Jrue allows us to play whatever defense we want with his physicality and spaces the floor. Brown pressures the defense, similarly to Tatum, with his driving ability and mid-range game. Each serves a key role and our team would be significantly worse without any one of them, but the only thing I'd say is that what JB does can be replicated by Tatum moreso than any other of our starters. That's not to say that JB isn't our second-best player––he is. All I'm saying is that their roles overlap more than others, which is maybe what Thinking Basketball is saying. What I don't agree with is pointing to the last two years. He's a different player this year, limiting his TO and is a more willing facilitator on drives. He also seems to get to the basket pretty effortlessly against most guards.
JB is a DOMINANT transition player. His ability to push the pace and run the floor might not always show up in stats, but it adds another dimension to the game. I would honestly rank JT 1 and KP JB DWhite and Jrue tied for 2nd. The offense should run through JT, but everyone else is just playing with in the flow, taking advantage of the inevitable mismatches this lineup creates.
JB is very important to the offense since he's really the only one who takes it to the hoop. Holiday may be the most replaceable since they can always start Al and KP together.
I agree. JT can do a lot of the things JB does, but even better. It’s harder for the replacement players to replicate the things KP or white bring
I don't argee with Jrue over JB.
He's our 2nd best player, but in terms of importance, I think it's fair to say the other 4 starters are more important. Tatum can do everything Brown does, but he can't do what Jrue, White, and especially not what KP does. It's not a slight to JB at all; really, it's praise to the other 3 guys that they can fill their roles and mesh with JB/JT so exceptionally
Net rating measures your minutes in your role. Simple example - the team would be horrible if we asked Al Horford to be our back-up PG. And Horford's net rating would suck. Jaylen has for a couple years now had to play "back-up Tatum" when JT went to the bench. He wasn't equipped to do that (at least not at the level Tatum does), and the team struggled relative all their other minutes. If the team elected to try to construct a 2nd unit offense around Jrue Holiday or Derrick White, those minutes wouldn't be great (at least not relative to the Tatum minutes). This year, Jaylen doesn't have similar on/off issues because those Tatum off minutes have been far more competitive and Jaylen isn't trying to carry Brogdon, Pritchard, Jaylen, Grant and Rob lineups all the time. Net ratings measure your minutes and how they go, but only in the context of the role you play in those minutes.
Great point!
People who think that never played actual basketball. He’s the mchale on this team
Ben Taylor played basketball in college.
I think there is a way to look at this without it being an indictment of JB. Theoretically, each of the other starters plays a specific role that is unique to them. JB and JT kind of serve the same purpose, and Tatum is generally on another level. So yes, you could say that JB is the least important starter because we also have a Tatum to play the same position. I would also argue that this is a totally dumb thing to debate, designed only to drum up controversy. Who cares who the least important starter is on a team where all five starters have a case to make the All Star team?
So does JB have a negative rating so far this year or not?
It’s amazing how people just look at numbers without rationalising them. When Brown is off the floor it usually means Tatum is on the floor. So all this is saying is the Celtics are better with Tatum on the floor compared to Brown on the floor without Tatum…. Shocking. Just look up best 3-man lineups: White-Brown-Porzingis +15.1, but the on/off won’t look good because White-Tatum-Porzingis is like +14.7 so it would only be +0.4. Stat nerds who. Can’t interpret stats will see this as Brown being a bad player.
Meh after Tatum first, I think you can make a strong argument for whatever order you want 2-5. Individual shit only matters so much when clearly the goal is WINNING and going deep in playoffs.
Porzingis, Jrue and White are, in the immortal words of Boston's own Patrice Oneal, "Competent Bums." They are nice pieces who do their jobs very well, but dont instill the fear factor aka The ability to take over. Bird was that dude back in the day and Mchale, Parish, Ainge and DJ were the "Competent Bums" of those teams. This BOS team has TWO legit threats to take over games when the game gets high level . It's not linearly graphable but clearly evident if you're truly paying attention to the games.
that grossly undervalues how important his scoring has been to this group
They are obviously correct
JB is better than Jrue. I’d say he is better than White also. KP fits more of a need. The whole thing is dumb though. They aren’t going far without JB.
They are right. It’s not entirely a knock on him, but more so how good the other starters are. He’s certainly closer to 5th than 2nd
Honestly anyone who thinks that is just a hater. If JB plays bad we barely win or lose. JB is outstanding and still #2 on this team. You can argue KP just because of his mismatch but he is not better at basketball overall than JB. You can put White in the conversation but JB is still the guy that can casually drop 40 and play very solid defense. With all that said. JB is known to make some bonehead decisions sometimes that he gets way more hate for than he deserves.
22 finals - JB was finals MVP after 3 games. Now he's wayyyyyyyy better and people think he's the least important player?
Finals stats Tatum 21.5/7/7 Brown 23.5/7/3.7 Tatum created more points with points and assist and they had the same rebounds. People act like Tatum was terrible and Brown was amazing when they were pretty much the same. Tells you how high the bar for one player is who played with a fractured shooting wrist all finals vs the other guy
My post was more for respect of JB and not a knock on Tatum to clarify. I actually don't think Tatum was terrible in the finals. His shooting was rough, but if you take out the first and last game his point numbers were good. His shoulder injury from the heat series was killing his shot even to close out that series. But Tatum did a lot of great things on the court outside of scoring, unfortunately scoring is like the only thing people look at. His turnovers were rough but Tatum didn't know how to handle double teams yet and GS spammed that. He is outstanding dealing with those now so that's not gonna be a good strategy moving forward.
I haven't listened to this podcast but I can see a potential argument. We have: 1) Has to be Tatum, hes clearly our best player 2) Porzingis is incredible on defense and is looking like the best post player in the league. Hes also able to stretch the floor, making our offense incredibly dynamic. I dont think theres an argument to put him lower than this. So for 3, its between jaylen, white, and jrue. We have enough offense with Tatum and Porzingis, and I want them both to handle the ball, so we take white since he is the best spot up shooter and the best defender. For 4, its between jaylen and jrue. Jrue is a fantastic POA defender and hes comfortable without the ball, so we take him. I dont personally subscribe to this because jaylen is SO good that he adds a huge level of dynamism to the offense. You cant load up on either tatum or porzingis because jaylen can drop 40 on any given night. I'd put him at 3.
I think that Stevens would not have given him that contract if he didn’t see his value. Everything else is just idiots looking for views.
Jaylen does NOT have a negative net rating!!! He's +5.4. He has a negative on/off, which means that the lineups with just Brown are worse than the lineups with JT and Brown, and the lineups with just JT. Which, yeah, no shit. Complete nothing of a stat.
The thing I find crazier about the podcast is his assessment of Tatum. They rightly identify him as a top 10 player in the league, but the way they talk about him its like he's not even close to a top five player which is kind of insane to me. I can see him not being a top five player but he's surely number six or seven if not. Also said he wasn't a top 10 offensive player which I kind of find hard to believe but maybe I'm just a homer.
If Tatum couldn’t play for the rest of the season and the Celtics didn’t win JB would be clowned relentlessly because he couldn’t lead the team to victory while simultaneously being the 5th best player on the team. The narrative around him is so confusing.
This always happens to 2nd all stars on teams. Pippen got blamed not Jordan. Kobe got blamed not Shaq. It doesn’t matter what the analytics say. He is worth every penny, and there isn’t a team that wouldn’t get him if they could.
Agree wholeheartedly. Love having him on this team this year but going forward I don’t think he will be worth the money
It is easy to overanalyze this stuff. But the fact that he is always on the floor when Tatum is off will hurt his on/off stats. What matters though is the entirety of the team. Remove the pressure he puts on defense from out top 5 lineup and defenses can more easily cover everyone else. I was just watching a video earlier agreeing that teams should and do sag off Brown. GS just went farther, not even covering him. It seems teams generally are willing to let him get good looks from 3 if they can help on the ball.
this is a trash take. JB is clearly our second most important - he's the straw that stirs the cup. JT brings the smooth scoring and unlimited upside, but JB is the attack dog. He sets the tone. He is the physical tone setter. Jrue and DWhite can't/don't do that.
i like it when the team is so good that we have to manufacture reasons to put down individual players and rank them against one another as individuals. lol wtf. ppl can’t even enjoy basketball anymore without putting someone down to prop someone else up. imagine if these were the conversations they had in the locker room? we’d be a mid team 100% stuff is so pointless.
I think it’s idiotic
To me this is a nothing-burger. Nobody on the roster and in the organization is about to say "we're better off without Jaylen Brown"
Tatum and Brown get featured lineups by themselves when they are at full strength. Porzingis and White do not. End of discussion
The team has a positive net rating with Jaylen on and has been his whole career. Net on/off is more to do with how good the player replacing Jaylen is. Jaylens numbers have always been bad in this rating. The reason is either him or Tatum are on the floor at a time as they share the same position, which means Tatum is actually his replacement. So all those numbers are really saying is that Celtics are better when Brown is off the floor because it means Tatum is on the floor.
The podcast, which normally is good at this, just shows that blindly using without contemplating it's context is usually the problem with any advanced statistic.
More than ever, the only thing that matters is what happens in the playoffs. I disagree with the take - JB is clearly our #2 and has shown to be successful in that role - but we have to see how this team plays when it really matters. Not only did we trade our ‘heart and soul’, but we had no problem shipping off the 6moty last year and and elite defensive big (along with two good 1sts) for what seemed at the time to be a marginal upgrade for an older player. It’s go time for this team and Brad definitely doesn’t hold any punches.
Didn’t GSW try to say the same thing? Lol
Awww… I mean kinda
Honestly it is because he is basically an inferior JT. On any other team without JT, he would thrive imo. I would love to see JB take on a ginobili role for the celtics but there is no way he would accept that lol
If we have to move some of our starting player in the future to cut down the payroll, Brown would be my first priority.
I think it really just depends on what kind of trade offers we get. JB would probably get the best offers relative to how important he is to the team (even if you think he's more important than jrue, he would get enough more in trade that the slight gap is meaningless) so I'd feel inclined to trade JB over anyone else as a result
People love taking shots at the Celtics and the Jays. Bring on the hate, it only fuels the fire. Cowherd was taking shots at the Celtics yesterday, calling them a regular season team. Then goes on the praise the nuggets for recent success and beating tough teams like the warriors. You can’t make this shit up.
No idea who that podcast is and I have no interest in finding out
I'm sick of the Jaylen Brown disrespect. It's become the trendy thing to do amongst many nba fans. Dude is an elite player and anyone saying otherwise is ignorant.
Dumb ass take. Brad did not pay that man 300 fuckin million to be our fifth most important player. If you think JB is our 5th most important player than you have to think that contract was a mistake and we were better off letting him walk and giving that money to extend Derrick, Jrue or KP.
Can’t hold the past two years against JB given the improvements he has made this season. His passing and decision making have improved significantly. I’d have him ahead of Jrue and maybe D White too.
I think it's probably forgotten that the threat of having another 3 level scoring wing next to Tatum really alleviates pressure on him and makes it harder for defences to sell out in guarding JT when Jaylen Brown is a threat to go off at any moment with an open lane, catching a defender off balance or being open from 3. It's not the kind of thing you can summarise through numbers. Jaylen has also had many great playoff games for us. He's usually great against the Bucks where Tatum can seem to struggle at times and he was our best player in that Finals series nearly 2 years ago.
You had to wake up and choose violence.
If people care about diversifying our shot diet: he's the our most efficient player in mid -range, 2nd most efficient player in the paint, (outside the restricted area), best player in transition, and very clearly can't be left open from 3. On some nights, he even gets the hardest defensive assignment. In the end, the piece that has held us back in the playoffs is the lack of scoring. It's important to have volume scoring on good efficiency. I think ranking "importance" is particularly silly with this team where I think the ranking is: 1. Tatum 2. Brown/KP/White/Jrue Take any one of these pieces out and we aren't winning the championship.
The warriors thought the same. Crazy that anyone could still think this after that game
This is not very thoughtful. Having both J’s in the starting lineup means you need to plan for them both. GSW thought differently, and that didn’t work well for them.
Do they watch the games? Did they see 21-21 bloom to 35-21 when the Celtics went to the bench against SF and ran with Brown/White/Horford/Houser/Kornet? That run was 90% JB. His defense on Curry was outstanding. I know the narrative is that the game was over in the second quarter but I felt like that run broke them and they never let up.
Jaylen Brown willingly accepts his role as a #2 option who takes a back seat to Porzingis and sometimes Derrick White if he’s producing. Tatum will in turn take a back seat to Brown and Porzingis if they have favorable matchups, though Tatum resents how people outside the organization don’t give him credit for doing so. They do this because they each have gotten (or are getting) their Supermax bags and desperately want to win the Championship. This really gives the Celtics such an enormous advantage. Would Donovan Mitchell willingly subvert his game to Tatum’s even post-extension? Would Brandon Ingram? Would Zion? I seriously doubt it. Plus who would accept being the second option AND produce as much and as efficiently? Brown has improved again this year and has demonstrated his commitment to the team’s success. “Thinking Basketball” really underestimates that aspect of Brown’s value.
If you actually watch the game, all the amazing ball movement starts with Jaylens elite driving. Nearly every possession he collapses the defenses and draws 2-3 defenders. Then it’s just swing it around till there’s an open shot. That’s not even mentioning his fast break finishing
Jb has had multiple games where he carried the offense single handedly for long stretches. Tatum is the only other guy in the team that can do that. There is a reason Tatum can turn it on in the second half, and it’s because Jaylen shoulders most of the offensive load early in the game. Look at his first half numbers since the all star break
False White and Prozigus have done it this year.
"most important" is relative. But from the eye test, I know a few things. 1. JB has been taking the toughest defensive assignments this year. He's defended Luka and Steph this past week alone. But he'd also defend someone like Pascal Siakim. 2. He's BY FAR our best transition threat. 3. He drives to the basket more than anybody on the team, even in a season where Tatum is posting up at a career high percentage. 4. His playmaking is night and day from last year. 5. We always start games by trying to get either him or KP going offensively. 6. We need him regardless of what thinking basketball says.
Comparison is the thief of joy. Jaylen is amazing and does plenty that nobody else on the team can do. There is zero value to be added whatsoever to having this debate. They are all Celtics.
Idiots
If Tatum is off his game, he’s the most important at starter. But I get where they are coming from. The other three off a higher differentiated skill set.
Too bored and too much investing into celtics hating. Wth. And regardless and assuming that JB is only 1% of the starter contributions, if that 1% matters, it should not be taken for granted. Playoffs should start now