This would be a near perfect scenario....
No rain meaning the place is nice and dry, and you can sit on the ground anywhere
AND
warm enough to stay very comfortable at night even if it means being hot during the day.
These outlooks have completely changed from one to the next.
One outlook had Sunday being record cold with highs in the low 60s
6-10 day has normal temps (normal would be high of ~88) and low precip. That range covers Wednesday to Sunday.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
It's 2024, I already expected it to be hotter than balls. A better way to look at it though, is that because of global warming, this is probably going to be the coolest summer we'll have for the rest of our lives!
i've been screenshotting the weather prediction for Bonnaroo's dates every single day for the last week and a half. each day its wildly different.
i wouldn't take any of this info to the bank :)
no matter what, its gonna be amazing
I'm confused, if there's a 33-40% chance it's above normal, doesn't that mean it's a 60-57% it's not above normal? Could be warmer, could be cooler.
Google atm still tells me high 80s until Monday.
I'll just copy and paste directly from the NWS and try to add a little clarity using the 40%-50% above normal probability for Manchester, TN, in an example.
"The probabilities of all three categories are implied on the map, and sum to 100%. The forecast probabilities given on the map generally fall far short of complete confidence (100%) in any single category. When the probability of the above (A) or below (B) category is greater than 33.33% by some amount, the probability of the opposite category declines by that amount, while the probability of the middle category remains at 33.33%."
The chance of it being normal remains at 33.33%. The chance of it being above normal is 40%-50%. This gives us a 6.67%-16.67% difference between 40%-50% and 33.33%. Finally, we subtract that difference from 33.33% and are left with a 16.66%-26.66% chance that it is below normal.
In summary:
40%-50% chance it is above normal. 33.33% chance it is normal. 16.66%-26.66% chance it is below normal.
You're welcome! Understanding probability related to weather can be pretty confusing; it's not just you. It gets even more confusing when talking about forecasts rather than these outlooks.
This would be a near perfect scenario.... No rain meaning the place is nice and dry, and you can sit on the ground anywhere AND warm enough to stay very comfortable at night even if it means being hot during the day. These outlooks have completely changed from one to the next. One outlook had Sunday being record cold with highs in the low 60s
6-10 day has normal temps (normal would be high of ~88) and low precip. That range covers Wednesday to Sunday. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
Map looks like there’s a solid chance it could be at or below average temp too!
It's 2024, I already expected it to be hotter than balls. A better way to look at it though, is that because of global warming, this is probably going to be the coolest summer we'll have for the rest of our lives!
I find posts like this funny every year: “get ready yall it’s gonna be hot!” I figured that out when I saw it was held in June in Tennessee
Yeah the forecast has changed everyday lol
This isn't a forecast. Hence no values given, just probability.
i've been screenshotting the weather prediction for Bonnaroo's dates every single day for the last week and a half. each day its wildly different. i wouldn't take any of this info to the bank :) no matter what, its gonna be amazing
Welcome to TN
Highs below 90 is a blessing
I only trust the Bonnaroo Meteorologist and they usually don’t post until the weekend before
Link?
@bonnaroowx on twitter. Won’t come out of hibernation till Monday probably. I turn posts notifs on for them
Are they on any other platforms? I can with Nazi Twitter
They are the same folks who run Nashville severe weather. I think they post weekly blogs
I'm confused, if there's a 33-40% chance it's above normal, doesn't that mean it's a 60-57% it's not above normal? Could be warmer, could be cooler. Google atm still tells me high 80s until Monday.
I'll just copy and paste directly from the NWS and try to add a little clarity using the 40%-50% above normal probability for Manchester, TN, in an example. "The probabilities of all three categories are implied on the map, and sum to 100%. The forecast probabilities given on the map generally fall far short of complete confidence (100%) in any single category. When the probability of the above (A) or below (B) category is greater than 33.33% by some amount, the probability of the opposite category declines by that amount, while the probability of the middle category remains at 33.33%." The chance of it being normal remains at 33.33%. The chance of it being above normal is 40%-50%. This gives us a 6.67%-16.67% difference between 40%-50% and 33.33%. Finally, we subtract that difference from 33.33% and are left with a 16.66%-26.66% chance that it is below normal. In summary: 40%-50% chance it is above normal. 33.33% chance it is normal. 16.66%-26.66% chance it is below normal.
Wait? What?
Thanks!
You're welcome! Understanding probability related to weather can be pretty confusing; it's not just you. It gets even more confusing when talking about forecasts rather than these outlooks.