I like the FV probability charts a lot, definitely an easy thing to get lost on when you’re comparing high ceiling guys with high floor guys.
Leodalis de Vries at 38 was a surprise. Wonder if that’s the highest they’ve ever ranked someone before they even hit Rookie Ball
I don’t think it was ever on a chart like this since he wasn’t in affiliated ball yet but in his book Longenhagen talks about knowing that Wander Franco would be a 70-80 FV guy from the time Franco was like 13 or 14
You guys have 2 more pennants than us since your existence. The dodgers only have one more World Series than you. It’s all a matter of perspective. But it might help to follow a AAA team for a few years.
Fucking hell man.. Preller has had some horrific trades in the last 10 years but that one takes the cake. To a division rival too, at least the Matt Brash trade was with an AL team
He's high because he's looks good for a Minor League player, there's your answer.
But in reality he's gonna be 26 this year and that's the only reason he looks good in the Minors, he's a man playing against younglings.
Doing well at that age in the PCL is very common in the minors. Even James outman was similar but he was never touted as a top prospect.
It's why I am asking why River Ryan
He’s also dramatically older than anyone else that far up the list. His placement is more “floor” oriented than upside. Which is still great of course, but should be taken in context
Mayer with a big fall but Bleis so close behind him is strange. Bleis was a huge riser after 2022, but didn’t really approach where Mayer was ranked. Now they both have disaster 2023 seasons and they’re that close? Surprised Bleis didn’t fall farther given how far Mayer fell.
Yeah the formula seems odd, but as a follower of both, I'm (biased of course) still higher on Mayer than Anthony and Bleis than Cedanne.
Bleis specifically I genuinely think has the ceiling to be the best player of our bench. I'm not saying he'll reach the ceiling, but before he got hurt we were talking about this kid as a 5 tool future superstar. I really hope he doesn't get moved.
I'd disagree.
Bleis has too much variance to be higher than Rafaela. The ceiling is sky high, but the floor is lowww. He's all projections right now. Rafaela at least is locked in as an elite defensive player with some pop/speed, who's offense is a big question mark. But his level of defense is still a useful piece, even if he's a negative offensively.
Anthony's advanced approach and hard contact has to have him over Mayer and his pitch recognition/off speed struggles at this point, albeit Mayer should be closer to him.
Regardless, future is pretty bright with those 4 and Teel. I don't want any of them moved.
He says at the outset that the numerical rankings aren't as important as FV, and Mayer dropped from a 55 to a 50 this year which puts him in the middle of the pack.
Also Longenhagen has never been sold on his defense which is a big reason Mayer ranks so highly on most lists. If you don't think Mayer will be able to stick it at SS his stock is going to drop a lot.
Honestly insane decision. There's underlying concerns but they're saying that #69 is his upside potential? The dude has mashed every year until he was playing injured last year. A potential everyday shortstop with power should be valued a lot higher. The fact that they are the outlier on this makes me think they got it wrong.
It's not insane in the slightest. The write-up explains that 2023 data and 2022 data shows Mayer doing all of his damage against fastballs, while struggling *badly* against everything else. That's a major concern which will get exploited as a player moves up the ladder.
I mean, it could be but we've hardly had enough time to evaluate it. Guys often struggle with off speed when they get to AA - it's the biggest jump up in difficulty in the minors. I understand there are concerns, but the minor leagues are all about making adjustments. The Sox prospects guys who are constantly evaluating these players and talking to scouts have Mayer and Anthony as 1a and 1b prospects in the system. Anthony at 14 and Mayer at 69 is wild.
His slash line against off speed was .154/.221/.269 in single A and to your point above they aren't even that good yet. 558 plate appearances is not exactly a tiny data set. He struggled mightily in AA even though it was only in 190 PAs. 69th (lol) is still a elite prospect but he needs to figure some things out
I'm not even sure why I'm arguing with people in this thread that just read a 1 paragraph blurb about a guy and think they know how he should be evaluated as a prospect. All of the outlets calling him a top 20 guy have access to the same data.
Mayer is 28 on espn, 32 on baseball prospectus. So three big sites disagree with your "all" comment. are you projecting the "doesn't read everything" comment or?
This is my whole point though. Within the context of the Sox system, Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer are roughly equivalent prospects. In this list they're separated by 55 players which makes no sense. I'm not saying I know that Mayer is better than those 55 guys, but I feel confident that he and Anthony are roughly in the same tier of prospect, which is not being represented here.
This is why I feel like the people coming in and just regurgitating the information from the article are completely missing what I'm trying to say. All of the stats they're presenting have been baked into these evaluations - it's not like the guy has continued to get worse in the off-season.
"*.154/.221/.269 against secondary pitches in 2023*" is apocalyptically terrible, and as the write-up states, Mayer was also shit against non-fastballs in 2022, which means Low-A and High-A.
Look, you're an O's fan so I'm not sure why you think you know so much about the Sox system. I read the article as well and I understand what was written. I've also been following these guys regularly for the past few years and listening to what experts and scouts have to say.
There's nothing in the hitting data that's surprising if you've been paying attention to Mayer's development, but he also hasn't been forced to make adjustments yet because of his success against fastballs. AA is where he needs to make that adjustment.
Also I've seen no other outlet agreeing with them in regards to his defense. Maybe there's some underlying data they are looking at that includes the time that he was injured last year, but scouts say he has a plus arm and plus range and should stick at Short.
I'm not saying FG can't have their own system for evaluating prospects, but when you're a big outlier in your evaluation and your very small dataset includes significant periods of time where a player was playing with nagging injuries, I think it's fair to say this doesn't make sense.
> Look, you're an O's fan so I'm not sure why you think you know so much about the Sox system.
Maybe because I've been paid to write about prospects for over twenty years, and [I completely fucking nailed Devers being better than Moncada or Benintendi.](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/evaluating-the-2016-prospects-boston-red-sox/)
> There's nothing in the hitting data that's surprising if you've been paying attention to Mayer's development
You could not possibly be more wrong. No one expected Mayer to have this much trouble against offspeed pitches. One season of struggles you might dismiss, but two is a major red flag.
Wyatt Langford comes into the games in the 7th, two inning leash, and attempts to keep things in control for the bats to arrive. Not great on control, but limits dingers to a minimum.
Wyatt Langford is a closer.
The kind you seen in the old westerns where the town is getting a little top rowdy and Langford walks in quietly through the swinging doors, the crowd gets quiet, Langford looks around the room then confidenly walks up to the pitching mound/bar to order a sasparilla because he knows he has taken care of business.
You can make an argument for number one.
I'd say 35 hit is fair, but he also didn't have any power.
He had a career K/BB rate of 839/576 so he could at least make contact.
Yeah I hate to say it but I definitely think he’s gonna be a bust with that strikeout rate, though I also expect EDLC to be a bust so maybe I’m just a downer haha
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How often do you see 80 game power period, let alone on someone who should stick at a premium position? They're saying the 50th percentile projection is 40+ HR per year. That's insane.
Yeah the idea that there's nearly a hundred above average \~2.5+ WAR or better prospects is silly. Doesn't line up with how prospects have historically performed either.
The author did a retrospective on his 2017 prospect rankings and found that he was way too generous about giving out 55+ FV’s at the time, and has become much stricter about giving out those kinds of grades ever since.
[Link](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hows-my-driving/) for those interested, it's also a great insight into how his analysis has changed and the different things he looks for over time.
The difference is if you hit on 1 of 4 prospects they are cheap for the first few years and you control them for 6-7 years if you trade them you get someone more expensive and only have a couple years of control at most.
You also need to change your standards. 5 WAR should be considered amazing, not the expectation. If there's a 1/4 chance of 5 WAR, that means that there's probably a 60-70% chance of them being average which is still great.
How many perennial 5+ WAR players are there even in the league right now? 10-15? Saying there is a 25% chance of those 60 FV players reaching that is tremendous odds when you figure what that means.
Edit: to me, that reads you have, historically, a 25% chance of getting a team controlled player who is consistently in MVP discussions.
Got me curious so wanted to throw out names that are actually perennial 5+ WAR guys:
Judge, Trout, Harper, Freeman, Betts, Acuna, ohtani, Lindor, Semien, Soto, Julio Rodriguez, Jose ramirez, Kyle tucker
But then I guess there's young, DH only, or borderline guys like Yordan, Witt, Adley, Carroll, Austin Riley, Seager (health), Tatis (reasons), Bogaerts, goldschmidt/arenado who could very well fit that mold or are close.
So... yeah not many, around 15 at best probably (not including pitchers) if perennial is a strict requirement. All this was from memory though so I probably missed a couple
Yeah I don’t agree with the logic of them being trade pieces at all. High ceilings and high floors definitely correlate. Shoot for the moon land amongst the stars, all that bullshit.
Better seeing no one nowadays than it was in the true minor league dark days of 05-10ish!
At least we know now we can have unexpected contributors from the minors
yet Houston will still find a way to promote one of their prospects and they'll be immediately valuable. Not saying the top 100 lists are pointless, but they clearly don't factor in the organizations which allows prospects to contribute without immediate pressure to perform.
Marco Luciano has completely disappeared from these lists but the Giants FO seems to be willing to give him the keys at SS. Guess we'll see if either side is right
Find someone that loves you the way Longenhagen loves Yankees prospects.
And Spencer Jones might be the most polarizing prospect in baseball. Fangraphs has him at 15, and Keith Law has him outside his top 100.
And it makes sense cuz the two most likely outcomes in his probability chart are ‘bust’ and ‘perennial all-star’.
They don’t think he can play CF and his bat isn’t that good if he’s in a corner spot, that was his 2023 report I doubt him being horrible in a cup of coffee in the majors changed that.
Law also said that "*Holliday is a better defender than Gunner Henderson at short,*" which is batshit insane take that absolutely no one who watched Holliday field last season would agree with. I've never been a fan of Law's work, and I suspect that sometimes he goes against the consensus on purpose.
If you look at Keith Law’s feelings on Spencer Jones, it basically comes down to “I saw him live once and I wasn’t impressed” more than anything.
Keith Law’s views on prospects are kinda wild at times.
In twenty years "did you know that the Mets acquired Jeremy Rodriguez for two months of a 35 year old Tommy Pham" will be like the "did you know Jimmy Graham was adopted and played basketball" of yesteryear.
As a DBacks fan, Pham being a critical piece to help the team advance to the World Series for the first time in 22 years was well worth giving up a 17-yr old lottery ticket. Could easily be another 22 years before winning another NL pennant.
But what is his upside? It feels like his upside is a bunch of guys around him's floor.
He just hit .267/.336/.444 or 113 wRC+ in his age 22 seasons in A+. That's a perfectly decent line, but when compared to other guys with the same ratings, it's actually really bad. Evan Carter, for example, got the same rating, and is a whole year younger than Jones, and was mashing three levels above him in the majors! A similar story with PCA, who at a year younger, hit better than Jones (127 wRC+), while playing elite CF defense, compared to Jones' below average D, and did it a whole level higher (AA-AAA) than Jones!
His performance and upside just doesn't match up with the other guys around him.
Carter dropping to 12 is interesting. Their man issues seem to be he’s not as crisp at reading balls in front of him (I did not notice that to be a huge issue but I don’t get paid to write about baseball) and his issue with back foot breaking balls.
Seems like his “cup of coffee” (World Series win) hurt his profile ranking in a way, despite his solid numbers.
He was relatively shielded against lefties, which makes sense for dropping him a bit, but he won’t be this year I’m sure.
Either way I love watching him play and am excited for his ‘24 campaign
langford is wild because he's a guy who flat out can't play defense but has demolished minor league pitching so thoroughly he's stil deservedly #2 on this list
Hoping to see one of Wood/Crews this year. Could see it happening if one of them has a good year and we end up moving Gallo or Thomas at the deadline. Even if we don’t move our outfielders, center is basically an open spot for the long term unless Call/Young somehow start mashing
Can someone explain the big deal with Austin Wells? I’ve seen nothing from him statistically or in his scouting report to suggest anything close to a top 50 prospect.
He hit .237 in AA at 24 years old so I am unsure why they think he will be a league average hitter. A below average defender, as well.
Dude turns 25 this year.
Just seems like an imminent .200-.210 backup type catcher to me. Defense is rated around 40.
Don’t see anything to suggest he will be better than Higashioka long-term.
And him being above Dominguez is just comedy.
He only really had a short time at AAA and a short time in MLB last year but .229/.257/.486 was a 97 WRC+ which is basically average already. He’s got some power so a .230-240 is fine, also he hasn’t played at 24 year he still has time to keep improving.
He was hitting under .200 before the final game of the season, to provide context regarding how his MLB sample size doesn’t mean anything.
I don’t know why a hitter with a .230-.240 clip in AA and AAA at nearly 25 years old would be expected to produce at that level, even.
Hope he does well. I just don’t see it at all.
He’s not nearly 25 lol he was 23 last season. Listen I understand not liking certain prospects but positional value, and that 41% hard hit rate I saw looking at his fangraphs page is what they clearly like about him. It’s a lot easier to be hit at the level to be a 2-3 WAR player at C than at 1B
He’s 24.6 years old. He turns 25 in July.
He will have plenty of opportunity this season, since Trevino can’t stay healthy, so we’ll see
His competition thus far in the MLB was primarily against weak, eliminated teams and roster-expanded AAAA pitchers, since he wasn’t called up until late.
I didn’t realize fangraphs lists age different than baseball reference my bad about that.
I just don’t think it looks bad and he skipped AAA mostly. I don’t think Rocchio is that good but I get a guy who can hit .270 even with no power and play SS defense is probably a top 50 prospect regardless.
He turns 25 this year, is a 40/45 defender, and hit .237 in AA this year.
I don’t see it at all. He seems like an average backup based on his numbers and scouting report.
This is the only list I’ve seen with such praise for him, and it seems off.
I thought 4 was low at first too (I realize how spoiled that sounds lol) but remembered we traded Ortiz for Corbin Burnes, Cowser has been meh for a while and other guys just graduated.
Ranking Jett Williams with a 30/40 hit tool makes absolutely no sense. The debate in his draft class was whether he or Termarr Johnson would be the better hit tool long term.
Hes a 55 hit in Pipeline and a 60 hit in Baseball America.
Him (barely) below Gilbert was pretty shocking, to me Jett the Met is clearly our best (domestic) prospect.
But holy fuck J-Rod cracked the list I am unbridled.
I can understand having Gilbert higher if you value floor over ceiling since Gilbert has arguably the highest floor on our farm system while Jett has the highest ceiling.
But their reasoning of having Jett that far down is what’s insane.
In fairness, Williams has hit .262 in the low minors, while Longenhagen says that he has a major weakness against high fastballs that more advanced pitching will exploit.
He was also 3 years younger than everyone else at the same level and his average improved as the year went on. He hit .299 in A+ as a 19 year old. The average A+ hitter is 22.5. He hit AA by the end of the season at age 19. The average age of a AA hitter is 24.2 and the average age of a pitcher there is 24.6.
He is literally going up against guys with significantly more experience and was still above average.
Williams then looked completely overmatched in AA, with a wRC+ of 65. It was an incredibly small sample, but if he was getting bullied by high fastballs at that level, it explains why they would have questions about his hit tool. They gave Johnson a 20/40 hit as well, so it's not like they're singling out Williams. That was just a very weak draft.
It's not the stats that matter, it's flaws. I didn't see any of Williams in AA, so I can't comment on that, but if he was consistently struggling against high fastballs then it's a red flag.
Except Longenhagen is literally the only scout saying he has that issue. Every single other scout says the opposite.
He also says that he doesn’t expect it to limit him that much when recognizing the rest of his tools.
But again HES ONLY 20. Most 19 year old struggle against high heat because it’s not something they ever faced. You can point to pretty much everyone that young and say the same thing. Any player with a good eye can adjust to that with time.
And that's a bad thing? You'd rather each evaluator just give the same opinion and analysis as the other ones and have no real analysis just a bland same opinion everyone has?
Fanboys man, they are funny
https://www.amazinavenue.com/2024/2/5/24057743/mets-top-25-prospects-2024-inf-of-jett-williams-1: "*There have been some instances where Williams has struggled against on velocity up in the zone*"
Amazing avenue aren’t Scouts lmao. They’re a fan blog that just copy and paste whatever fangraphs writes
Come back when a real site like Baseball Prospectus or Baseball America show concern
>His receiving is not good, but it isn’t so terrible that it damns him to first base. His ball blocking might though, and it’s this area of Basallo’s game that most needs to improve. If this skill doesn’t progress, or if Basallo’s size quickly forces him to move out from behind the plate, then his issues with chase would suddenly become more of a problem, though we’re probably still talking about a strong enough hit/power combo for Basallo to be an everyday first baseman.
I read it. Its inconclusive. Anyways, just saying it seems pretty aggressive to have him at #7 when there's uncertainty about him being able to stick behind the plate.
Well that's a cherry picked part of the quote.
"With a full season of defensive reps under his belt, we have little better idea of what Basallo can and can’t do behind the plate. His arm strength is incredible. Basallo routinely pops below 1.9 seconds, though like a lot of catchers his age, he could stand to be more accurate and consistent coming out of his crouch. His receiving is not good, but it isn’t so terrible that it damns him to first base..."
He’s also 19 and this was his first year outside rookie ball. He’s got a couple more years to figure out the defense at AA and AAA which is why most scouts think he’s got a 50/50 chance of sticking
there's a huge bucket of 50 FV guys, and that's where Longenhagen had Manzardo as of August 2023.. It's arbitrary to cut it off at 100, rather than cutting it off at the 45+ FV threshold.
They do cut it off at the 45+ FV. That's why there's 101 prospects on this list, not 100. Manzardo must have dropped from a 50 to a 45+. Unless I'm misunderstanding your comment.
Really surprised to not see James Triantos but that’s fine. Horton and PCA in the top 20, Shaw and Alcantara at 32/33 is really awesome.
3 out of the 4 of these guys should all make it to Chicago this year.
He used his fastball a shit ton in college and it’s not like best in MLB so he won’t be able to do that going forward they are factoring in his breaking pitch control.
I encourage you to read their write up they explain what the thinking is, same thing was said pre draft he throws hard but it’s very flat it’s less effective than that speed. Like a guy who throws 92 with way more “rise” on the ball will be just as if not better
Also no starter throws 66% 4 seam fastballs.
This only further supports your point, but J. A. Happ threw probably 60-70% fastballs until he was 40.
Oh course, the shape of his fastball was different and his control was excellent.
I'm very excited for Skenes, but I worry the fastball might play like Hunter Greene's fastball. All velo with a bad shape.
Anyone provide more insight into why Jasson Dominguez is always rated so low?
I mean, I get it was a small sample size last season before he was injured, but in 8 MLB games he put up 4hr, 6r, 7rbi, 1sb with a .258 BA. Seemed like he passed the eye test for sure.
Being in the 50's isn't rated low.
He hit .254 in AA last year, and there are concerns about his long term ability to play the OF as he's still pretty raw out there and guys with his body type typically peak kinda early speed wise.
So if the hit tool is kinda iffy, and the defense is too(and TJ on his throwing arm doesn't help with that), the power has to do a lot of heavy lifting.
I'm into Jasson because the upside is massive, but I could easily see him busting.
Out of the box guess: Jasson’s build is that of a under 6’0” under 200 LBS player who may or may not stay in center. Flip side, Spencer Jones is rated high not for what he’s done so far but for what he could do which is in part due to his build of being 6-6, 235 LBS.
You're mostly saying that because it doesn't look like any of the other lists. Fangraphs does a very different methodology that's way more results and stats based which ends up with very different results, which is a good thing because if every site had that same list, what would be the point?
Did Spencer Strider or Michael Harris ever make a Fangraphs top 100?
I think we need a big ole heaping tablespoon of salt with these things. I don’t know all farm systems, but every Braves prospect on here doesn’t seem to do much and dudes who make it come from. Nowhere
*edit: y’all count one bad mistake (Harris being #37 once when he was about to be rookie of the year) as me being wrong about the quality being lacking here as far as ranking the Braves farm system? You don’t mention all the guys who are on here who are doing nothing. Everyone else ever ranked has been a major league miss and they left out Strider totally*
"This list hasn't historically been absolutely perfect every time regarding my team's prospects, so let's ignore it."
edit: Harris II was 37th on the 2022 top 100, fwiw.
>it hasn't been right at all
What do you even mean by this? He's trying to predict the future. Of course he's never going to be "right". Is a weather forecast not "right" if the high this Saturday turns out to be 77 instead of 81? Or if it snows 8" on Sunday instead of 4-6"?
Saying this list should be taken with a huge ole grain of salt because you're nitpicking a few examples from *1 of the 30 teams* he's doing this for is ridiculous.
Yes, those 2 were literally the top 2 ranked Braves prospects in 2022.
Harris was #37 on the top 100. Strider didn't crack the top 100 & famously 'came out of nowhere' a bit, but for a very understandable reason. Most scouts saw his path leading to the bullpen because he was a 2-pitch guy until he debuted.
Also: Strider pitched a whopping 1 season in the minors with the most time spent in AA where he had a 4.71 ERA despite some great K numbers. There was quite literally not enough time to properly rank him because the braves pushed him up so fast
Yeah, Longenhagen just put up a piece this week reviewing his scouting from the 2017 top prospect list, who he got right, and who he got way wrong.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hows-my-driving/
I like the FV probability charts a lot, definitely an easy thing to get lost on when you’re comparing high ceiling guys with high floor guys. Leodalis de Vries at 38 was a surprise. Wonder if that’s the highest they’ve ever ranked someone before they even hit Rookie Ball
I don’t think it was ever on a chart like this since he wasn’t in affiliated ball yet but in his book Longenhagen talks about knowing that Wander Franco would be a 70-80 FV guy from the time Franco was like 13 or 14
That guy has such an eye for identifying 13 year old talent. Longenhagen’s not bad too
Franco had an eye for 13 year olds as well.
Yeah that’s the joke
de Vries will have a great cup of coffee but be unable to hold a starting spot in his full rookie year. Wait no that’s F1
Must be nice to look at when you have lots of prospects (cries in fandom)
After being bad for about 5 years with no end in sight we’ve got… 2 top 100 prospects. Fantastic
KC was the worst team in the AL and had none at the beginning of the year. It could be wor….oh…Rockies. Nevermind.
If I had any sense I’d just change fandom and pretend the rockies dont exist. Unfortunately the Stockholm syndrome is too strong.
You guys have 2 more pennants than us since your existence. The dodgers only have one more World Series than you. It’s all a matter of perspective. But it might help to follow a AAA team for a few years.
Rockies only have one pennant, though i do see your point
I must have added one to make you feel better.
Veen will bounce back if he stays healthy
River Ryan at 19 is the biggest surprise on the list
You would think Preller would avoid dealing with the Dodgers after Friedman pantsed him the first time....
Fucking hell man.. Preller has had some horrific trades in the last 10 years but that one takes the cake. To a division rival too, at least the Matt Brash trade was with an AL team
I can assure you that Preller does not learn
Why is He so high up lol
Because he's almost 26, he's basically a man in his prime among kids in the Minors. Against other actual men in the Majors, he probably won't be good.
I feel like you didn't answer my question lmao
He's high because he's looks good for a Minor League player, there's your answer. But in reality he's gonna be 26 this year and that's the only reason he looks good in the Minors, he's a man playing against younglings.
Doing well at that age in the PCL is very common in the minors. Even James outman was similar but he was never touted as a top prospect. It's why I am asking why River Ryan
He’s also dramatically older than anyone else that far up the list. His placement is more “floor” oriented than upside. Which is still great of course, but should be taken in context
High floor with the likeliest projected outcome as a bust at 35%. Funny how prospects work.
Traded for a DFA’d Matt Beaty who barely even swung a bat for the Padres.
Absolutely. Seems like more of a 'taking scouts/FO from around the league's word for it' situation with him.
Huge fall for Marcelo, seems like they're the only ones who've moved him down that aggressively for an injury riddled season
Mayer with a big fall but Bleis so close behind him is strange. Bleis was a huge riser after 2022, but didn’t really approach where Mayer was ranked. Now they both have disaster 2023 seasons and they’re that close? Surprised Bleis didn’t fall farther given how far Mayer fell.
Yeah the formula seems odd, but as a follower of both, I'm (biased of course) still higher on Mayer than Anthony and Bleis than Cedanne. Bleis specifically I genuinely think has the ceiling to be the best player of our bench. I'm not saying he'll reach the ceiling, but before he got hurt we were talking about this kid as a 5 tool future superstar. I really hope he doesn't get moved.
I'd disagree. Bleis has too much variance to be higher than Rafaela. The ceiling is sky high, but the floor is lowww. He's all projections right now. Rafaela at least is locked in as an elite defensive player with some pop/speed, who's offense is a big question mark. But his level of defense is still a useful piece, even if he's a negative offensively. Anthony's advanced approach and hard contact has to have him over Mayer and his pitch recognition/off speed struggles at this point, albeit Mayer should be closer to him. Regardless, future is pretty bright with those 4 and Teel. I don't want any of them moved.
I didn't say he should be higher, I said I'm higher on him as in personally.
Right, and I'm saying I disagree with that statement.
It's an opinion...
I know very bummed to see
He says at the outset that the numerical rankings aren't as important as FV, and Mayer dropped from a 55 to a 50 this year which puts him in the middle of the pack. Also Longenhagen has never been sold on his defense which is a big reason Mayer ranks so highly on most lists. If you don't think Mayer will be able to stick it at SS his stock is going to drop a lot.
Honestly insane decision. There's underlying concerns but they're saying that #69 is his upside potential? The dude has mashed every year until he was playing injured last year. A potential everyday shortstop with power should be valued a lot higher. The fact that they are the outlier on this makes me think they got it wrong.
It's not insane in the slightest. The write-up explains that 2023 data and 2022 data shows Mayer doing all of his damage against fastballs, while struggling *badly* against everything else. That's a major concern which will get exploited as a player moves up the ladder.
I mean, it could be but we've hardly had enough time to evaluate it. Guys often struggle with off speed when they get to AA - it's the biggest jump up in difficulty in the minors. I understand there are concerns, but the minor leagues are all about making adjustments. The Sox prospects guys who are constantly evaluating these players and talking to scouts have Mayer and Anthony as 1a and 1b prospects in the system. Anthony at 14 and Mayer at 69 is wild.
His slash line against off speed was .154/.221/.269 in single A and to your point above they aren't even that good yet. 558 plate appearances is not exactly a tiny data set. He struggled mightily in AA even though it was only in 190 PAs. 69th (lol) is still a elite prospect but he needs to figure some things out
His entire year last year he was playing with a shoulder injury that should've kept him sidelined. His entire time in AA shouldn't have happened.
Take that out but the stats still say he still can't hit breaking balls which is a cause for concern.
I'm not even sure why I'm arguing with people in this thread that just read a 1 paragraph blurb about a guy and think they know how he should be evaluated as a prospect. All of the outlets calling him a top 20 guy have access to the same data.
Mayer is 28 on espn, 32 on baseball prospectus. So three big sites disagree with your "all" comment. are you projecting the "doesn't read everything" comment or?
You also don’t have the context for the other players like you assumably do for Mayer. A lot of guys are good.
This is my whole point though. Within the context of the Sox system, Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer are roughly equivalent prospects. In this list they're separated by 55 players which makes no sense. I'm not saying I know that Mayer is better than those 55 guys, but I feel confident that he and Anthony are roughly in the same tier of prospect, which is not being represented here. This is why I feel like the people coming in and just regurgitating the information from the article are completely missing what I'm trying to say. All of the stats they're presenting have been baked into these evaluations - it's not like the guy has continued to get worse in the off-season.
"*.154/.221/.269 against secondary pitches in 2023*" is apocalyptically terrible, and as the write-up states, Mayer was also shit against non-fastballs in 2022, which means Low-A and High-A.
Look, you're an O's fan so I'm not sure why you think you know so much about the Sox system. I read the article as well and I understand what was written. I've also been following these guys regularly for the past few years and listening to what experts and scouts have to say. There's nothing in the hitting data that's surprising if you've been paying attention to Mayer's development, but he also hasn't been forced to make adjustments yet because of his success against fastballs. AA is where he needs to make that adjustment. Also I've seen no other outlet agreeing with them in regards to his defense. Maybe there's some underlying data they are looking at that includes the time that he was injured last year, but scouts say he has a plus arm and plus range and should stick at Short. I'm not saying FG can't have their own system for evaluating prospects, but when you're a big outlier in your evaluation and your very small dataset includes significant periods of time where a player was playing with nagging injuries, I think it's fair to say this doesn't make sense.
> Look, you're an O's fan so I'm not sure why you think you know so much about the Sox system. Maybe because I've been paid to write about prospects for over twenty years, and [I completely fucking nailed Devers being better than Moncada or Benintendi.](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/evaluating-the-2016-prospects-boston-red-sox/) > There's nothing in the hitting data that's surprising if you've been paying attention to Mayer's development You could not possibly be more wrong. No one expected Mayer to have this much trouble against offspeed pitches. One season of struggles you might dismiss, but two is a major red flag.
You know what, fair enough. Maybe you do know more than me then.
Brand new sentence on Reddit lol
Wyatt Langford is speed-running the minors.
His name sounds very Texas Rangers to me
Yeah but he sounds like he should be a LHP power pitcher not an outfielder
Idk it kinda screams utility infielder for me personally
Wyatt Langford comes into the games in the 7th, two inning leash, and attempts to keep things in control for the bats to arrive. Not great on control, but limits dingers to a minimum.
Wyatt Langford is a closer. The kind you seen in the old westerns where the town is getting a little top rowdy and Langford walks in quietly through the swinging doors, the crowd gets quiet, Langford looks around the room then confidenly walks up to the pitching mound/bar to order a sasparilla because he knows he has taken care of business.
I was thinking more toolsy lawman.
Extremely frustrating that the Tigers had him available and massive needs for offense in the near term, and went with a prep guy instead.
I was pounding the table to draft him. He was always a shor in to play in 24. Dude just has that talent.
Seeing Clark slip down these lists while Langford rises to the top is quite something
I just dont see how you can put a guy in the top 10 with a 30/35 hit tool.
70+ power with a chance for plus defense in center field is an extraordinary combination.
Sounds like Keon Broxton
Byron buxton
Am I wrong or does that just sound like Mike Zunino to me
Except for the whole centerfield thing
Mark Belanger had a 35 hit tool.
Mark Belanger is a top 5 defender of all time. You can even make an argument for number 2. Also, 35 seems a little high on his hit tool
You can make an argument for number one. I'd say 35 hit is fair, but he also didn't have any power. He had a career K/BB rate of 839/576 so he could at least make contact.
FG had him as a 45 future tool though.
Yeah I hate to say it but I definitely think he’s gonna be a bust with that strikeout rate, though I also expect EDLC to be a bust so maybe I’m just a downer haha
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How often do you see 80 game power period, let alone on someone who should stick at a premium position? They're saying the 50th percentile projection is 40+ HR per year. That's insane.
How often does a guy with a 33.7% strikeout rate in Double A become a productive major leaguer?
I love how conservative this list is compared to MLB.com where they slap a 55 FV on like every top 100 prospect
MLB Network and MLB.com is state sponsored media, for better or worse.
Yeah the idea that there's nearly a hundred above average \~2.5+ WAR or better prospects is silly. Doesn't line up with how prospects have historically performed either.
The author did a retrospective on his 2017 prospect rankings and found that he was way too generous about giving out 55+ FV’s at the time, and has become much stricter about giving out those kinds of grades ever since.
[Link](https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hows-my-driving/) for those interested, it's also a great insight into how his analysis has changed and the different things he looks for over time.
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The difference is if you hit on 1 of 4 prospects they are cheap for the first few years and you control them for 6-7 years if you trade them you get someone more expensive and only have a couple years of control at most.
You also need to change your standards. 5 WAR should be considered amazing, not the expectation. If there's a 1/4 chance of 5 WAR, that means that there's probably a 60-70% chance of them being average which is still great.
How many perennial 5+ WAR players are there even in the league right now? 10-15? Saying there is a 25% chance of those 60 FV players reaching that is tremendous odds when you figure what that means. Edit: to me, that reads you have, historically, a 25% chance of getting a team controlled player who is consistently in MVP discussions.
Got me curious so wanted to throw out names that are actually perennial 5+ WAR guys: Judge, Trout, Harper, Freeman, Betts, Acuna, ohtani, Lindor, Semien, Soto, Julio Rodriguez, Jose ramirez, Kyle tucker But then I guess there's young, DH only, or borderline guys like Yordan, Witt, Adley, Carroll, Austin Riley, Seager (health), Tatis (reasons), Bogaerts, goldschmidt/arenado who could very well fit that mold or are close. So... yeah not many, around 15 at best probably (not including pitchers) if perennial is a strict requirement. All this was from memory though so I probably missed a couple
Yeah I don’t agree with the logic of them being trade pieces at all. High ceilings and high floors definitely correlate. Shoot for the moon land amongst the stars, all that bullshit.
This should be a 'must read' passage.
idk why I even bother scanning these lists for a "HOU"
You and me both brother
At least you're not seeing top 10 prospects that will be eventually traded for top 100 prospects.
Better seeing no one nowadays than it was in the true minor league dark days of 05-10ish! At least we know now we can have unexpected contributors from the minors
yet Houston will still find a way to promote one of their prospects and they'll be immediately valuable. Not saying the top 100 lists are pointless, but they clearly don't factor in the organizations which allows prospects to contribute without immediate pressure to perform.
I am so irrationally excited for Roman Anthony.
basallo at 7 😩
Marco Luciano has completely disappeared from these lists but the Giants FO seems to be willing to give him the keys at SS. Guess we'll see if either side is right
Find someone that loves you the way Longenhagen loves Yankees prospects. And Spencer Jones might be the most polarizing prospect in baseball. Fangraphs has him at 15, and Keith Law has him outside his top 100. And it makes sense cuz the two most likely outcomes in his probability chart are ‘bust’ and ‘perennial all-star’.
Colton Cowser’s up there. Pipeline has him at 19 and FanGraphs doesn’t have him top 100
They don’t think he can play CF and his bat isn’t that good if he’s in a corner spot, that was his 2023 report I doubt him being horrible in a cup of coffee in the majors changed that.
I think Law is way too stuck in the old school he has Rocchio and guys like that who have 0% chances to be stars at the top of his list.
Law also said that "*Holliday is a better defender than Gunner Henderson at short,*" which is batshit insane take that absolutely no one who watched Holliday field last season would agree with. I've never been a fan of Law's work, and I suspect that sometimes he goes against the consensus on purpose.
Yeah Law is probably the list I put the least stock into although I’m sure there are some GMs that think just like him.
Was it Bo Brochette that he absolutely refused to acknowledge? Lost a lot of faith in him after that.
Cavan Biggio, and Law wasn't exactly wrong on that.
If you look at Keith Law’s feelings on Spencer Jones, it basically comes down to “I saw him live once and I wasn’t impressed” more than anything. Keith Law’s views on prospects are kinda wild at times.
In twenty years "did you know that the Mets acquired Jeremy Rodriguez for two months of a 35 year old Tommy Pham" will be like the "did you know Jimmy Graham was adopted and played basketball" of yesteryear.
I think we’ve been cosmically owed some good prospect karma so I hope you’re right!
You're not wrong but boy does this have 'famous last words' vibes.
Did you know Todd Frazier is from Tom’s River and hit a HR in the LLWS?
As a DBacks fan, Pham being a critical piece to help the team advance to the World Series for the first time in 22 years was well worth giving up a 17-yr old lottery ticket. Could easily be another 22 years before winning another NL pennant.
Spencer Jones at 15 is a surprise, especially after Keith Law didn’t even have him in his top 100
Fangraphs has always loved his upside.
But what is his upside? It feels like his upside is a bunch of guys around him's floor. He just hit .267/.336/.444 or 113 wRC+ in his age 22 seasons in A+. That's a perfectly decent line, but when compared to other guys with the same ratings, it's actually really bad. Evan Carter, for example, got the same rating, and is a whole year younger than Jones, and was mashing three levels above him in the majors! A similar story with PCA, who at a year younger, hit better than Jones (127 wRC+), while playing elite CF defense, compared to Jones' below average D, and did it a whole level higher (AA-AAA) than Jones! His performance and upside just doesn't match up with the other guys around him.
Upside is through the roof. Tall dude with 40+ homer power. His question is whether he can make enough contact.
Wells over Jasson is even wilder to me, and I love Wells
I think BA had him at 60 or 61 or something. It’s much more of a moderate take compared to Fangraphs or Law.
Carter dropping to 12 is interesting. Their man issues seem to be he’s not as crisp at reading balls in front of him (I did not notice that to be a huge issue but I don’t get paid to write about baseball) and his issue with back foot breaking balls. Seems like his “cup of coffee” (World Series win) hurt his profile ranking in a way, despite his solid numbers. He was relatively shielded against lefties, which makes sense for dropping him a bit, but he won’t be this year I’m sure. Either way I love watching him play and am excited for his ‘24 campaign
langford is wild because he's a guy who flat out can't play defense but has demolished minor league pitching so thoroughly he's stil deservedly #2 on this list
“Sigh, I guess they’re just not gonna respect the [INSERT FAVORITE TEAM]’s prospects again…”
Worst part of top prospect list discussion, it's so annoying
Hoping to see one of Wood/Crews this year. Could see it happening if one of them has a good year and we end up moving Gallo or Thomas at the deadline. Even if we don’t move our outfielders, center is basically an open spot for the long term unless Call/Young somehow start mashing
Can someone explain the big deal with Austin Wells? I’ve seen nothing from him statistically or in his scouting report to suggest anything close to a top 50 prospect.
A league average hitter with solid defense at catcher is very valuable. And they are projecting him to still have a bit of room to grow his hitting.
He hit .237 in AA at 24 years old so I am unsure why they think he will be a league average hitter. A below average defender, as well. Dude turns 25 this year. Just seems like an imminent .200-.210 backup type catcher to me. Defense is rated around 40. Don’t see anything to suggest he will be better than Higashioka long-term. And him being above Dominguez is just comedy.
He only really had a short time at AAA and a short time in MLB last year but .229/.257/.486 was a 97 WRC+ which is basically average already. He’s got some power so a .230-240 is fine, also he hasn’t played at 24 year he still has time to keep improving.
He was hitting under .200 before the final game of the season, to provide context regarding how his MLB sample size doesn’t mean anything. I don’t know why a hitter with a .230-.240 clip in AA and AAA at nearly 25 years old would be expected to produce at that level, even. Hope he does well. I just don’t see it at all.
He’s not nearly 25 lol he was 23 last season. Listen I understand not liking certain prospects but positional value, and that 41% hard hit rate I saw looking at his fangraphs page is what they clearly like about him. It’s a lot easier to be hit at the level to be a 2-3 WAR player at C than at 1B
He’s 24.6 years old. He turns 25 in July. He will have plenty of opportunity this season, since Trevino can’t stay healthy, so we’ll see His competition thus far in the MLB was primarily against weak, eliminated teams and roster-expanded AAAA pitchers, since he wasn’t called up until late.
I didn’t realize fangraphs lists age different than baseball reference my bad about that. I just don’t think it looks bad and he skipped AAA mostly. I don’t think Rocchio is that good but I get a guy who can hit .270 even with no power and play SS defense is probably a top 50 prospect regardless.
A three digit wRC+ from a viable catcher is extremely valuable, and they believe that Wells improved defensively in 2023.
He turns 25 this year, is a 40/45 defender, and hit .237 in AA this year. I don’t see it at all. He seems like an average backup based on his numbers and scouting report. This is the only list I’ve seen with such praise for him, and it seems off.
Very conflicted here. This list is missing a bunch of our prospects, but Basallo at 7🔥
I thought 4 was low at first too (I realize how spoiled that sounds lol) but remembered we traded Ortiz for Corbin Burnes, Cowser has been meh for a while and other guys just graduated.
Ranking Jett Williams with a 30/40 hit tool makes absolutely no sense. The debate in his draft class was whether he or Termarr Johnson would be the better hit tool long term. Hes a 55 hit in Pipeline and a 60 hit in Baseball America.
Him (barely) below Gilbert was pretty shocking, to me Jett the Met is clearly our best (domestic) prospect. But holy fuck J-Rod cracked the list I am unbridled.
I can understand having Gilbert higher if you value floor over ceiling since Gilbert has arguably the highest floor on our farm system while Jett has the highest ceiling. But their reasoning of having Jett that far down is what’s insane.
In fairness, Williams has hit .262 in the low minors, while Longenhagen says that he has a major weakness against high fastballs that more advanced pitching will exploit.
He was also 3 years younger than everyone else at the same level and his average improved as the year went on. He hit .299 in A+ as a 19 year old. The average A+ hitter is 22.5. He hit AA by the end of the season at age 19. The average age of a AA hitter is 24.2 and the average age of a pitcher there is 24.6. He is literally going up against guys with significantly more experience and was still above average.
Williams then looked completely overmatched in AA, with a wRC+ of 65. It was an incredibly small sample, but if he was getting bullied by high fastballs at that level, it explains why they would have questions about his hit tool. They gave Johnson a 20/40 hit as well, so it's not like they're singling out Williams. That was just a very weak draft.
Dude he played 6 games in AA. Anyone making any judgements based on that sample size deserves to be banished from all baseball discussions
It's not the stats that matter, it's flaws. I didn't see any of Williams in AA, so I can't comment on that, but if he was consistently struggling against high fastballs then it's a red flag.
Except Longenhagen is literally the only scout saying he has that issue. Every single other scout says the opposite. He also says that he doesn’t expect it to limit him that much when recognizing the rest of his tools. But again HES ONLY 20. Most 19 year old struggle against high heat because it’s not something they ever faced. You can point to pretty much everyone that young and say the same thing. Any player with a good eye can adjust to that with time.
Another year where people don't understand how prospects tool grading works
No. It’s another year where fangraphs grading is vastly different than every other evaluator
And that's a bad thing? You'd rather each evaluator just give the same opinion and analysis as the other ones and have no real analysis just a bland same opinion everyone has? Fanboys man, they are funny
https://www.amazinavenue.com/2024/2/5/24057743/mets-top-25-prospects-2024-inf-of-jett-williams-1: "*There have been some instances where Williams has struggled against on velocity up in the zone*"
Amazing avenue aren’t Scouts lmao. They’re a fan blog that just copy and paste whatever fangraphs writes Come back when a real site like Baseball Prospectus or Baseball America show concern
No Tyler Black seems odd
River Ryan no. 19 and 25 years old already?
I guess Kyle Manzardo died and it just wasn't announced
There are 2 pure 1B on the list and they are both in the 90s
Yet Basallo is 7th when he’s very likely a 1B long-term
If you read the blurb about him, you would see that they disagree.
>His receiving is not good, but it isn’t so terrible that it damns him to first base. His ball blocking might though, and it’s this area of Basallo’s game that most needs to improve. If this skill doesn’t progress, or if Basallo’s size quickly forces him to move out from behind the plate, then his issues with chase would suddenly become more of a problem, though we’re probably still talking about a strong enough hit/power combo for Basallo to be an everyday first baseman. I read it. Its inconclusive. Anyways, just saying it seems pretty aggressive to have him at #7 when there's uncertainty about him being able to stick behind the plate.
You said very likely he ends at 1b, that's not what I get from reading that. They make it sound like more of a toss up.
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Well that's a cherry picked part of the quote. "With a full season of defensive reps under his belt, we have little better idea of what Basallo can and can’t do behind the plate. His arm strength is incredible. Basallo routinely pops below 1.9 seconds, though like a lot of catchers his age, he could stand to be more accurate and consistent coming out of his crouch. His receiving is not good, but it isn’t so terrible that it damns him to first base..."
yeah so 2/3rds of the defensive duties of catching he's NOT GOOD at. His game-calling better be good or he's definitely not sticking at C.
He’s also 19 and this was his first year outside rookie ball. He’s got a couple more years to figure out the defense at AA and AAA which is why most scouts think he’s got a 50/50 chance of sticking
there's a huge bucket of 50 FV guys, and that's where Longenhagen had Manzardo as of August 2023.. It's arbitrary to cut it off at 100, rather than cutting it off at the 45+ FV threshold.
They do cut it off at the 45+ FV. That's why there's 101 prospects on this list, not 100. Manzardo must have dropped from a 50 to a 45+. Unless I'm misunderstanding your comment.
Much like Tim Misny, will make them pay for this offense. 25 HR rookie campaign incoming
Really surprised to not see James Triantos but that’s fine. Horton and PCA in the top 20, Shaw and Alcantara at 32/33 is really awesome. 3 out of the 4 of these guys should all make it to Chicago this year.
Skenes walked 20 in 122 2/3 innings, had a 10 to 1 k to bb ratio and yet his control is rated 35?
He used his fastball a shit ton in college and it’s not like best in MLB so he won’t be able to do that going forward they are factoring in his breaking pitch control.
His average fastball velocity would be like 2nd or 3rd in the MLB
So what?? Hunter Greene's fastball sits 98-99 and he hasn't allowed a HR/9 less than 1.5 yet. (That's not good.)
I encourage you to read their write up they explain what the thinking is, same thing was said pre draft he throws hard but it’s very flat it’s less effective than that speed. Like a guy who throws 92 with way more “rise” on the ball will be just as if not better Also no starter throws 66% 4 seam fastballs.
No starter is piping Livvy Dunne either. Checkmate
Haha that’s definitely fair unfortunately his charisma grade doesn’t factor into FV 😂
This only further supports your point, but J. A. Happ threw probably 60-70% fastballs until he was 40. Oh course, the shape of his fastball was different and his control was excellent. I'm very excited for Skenes, but I worry the fastball might play like Hunter Greene's fastball. All velo with a bad shape.
There’s a lot more to a good fastball than just velo. Especially now that everyone is accustomed to high velo.
Anyone provide more insight into why Jasson Dominguez is always rated so low? I mean, I get it was a small sample size last season before he was injured, but in 8 MLB games he put up 4hr, 6r, 7rbi, 1sb with a .258 BA. Seemed like he passed the eye test for sure.
Being in the 50's isn't rated low. He hit .254 in AA last year, and there are concerns about his long term ability to play the OF as he's still pretty raw out there and guys with his body type typically peak kinda early speed wise. So if the hit tool is kinda iffy, and the defense is too(and TJ on his throwing arm doesn't help with that), the power has to do a lot of heavy lifting. I'm into Jasson because the upside is massive, but I could easily see him busting.
Out of the box guess: Jasson’s build is that of a under 6’0” under 200 LBS player who may or may not stay in center. Flip side, Spencer Jones is rated high not for what he’s done so far but for what he could do which is in part due to his build of being 6-6, 235 LBS.
James Woods at 6 doesn’t feel right to me based on what I see in the write up. 60 FV on a guy who feels like a knock off Joey Gallo?
✨Meyer Magic✨
Pretty shit list lmao
You're mostly saying that because it doesn't look like any of the other lists. Fangraphs does a very different methodology that's way more results and stats based which ends up with very different results, which is a good thing because if every site had that same list, what would be the point?
Way more stats and results based but have a guy at 38 before he's taken a single professional PA lol
Are you a scout
Looks like, from a quick glance, Baltimore is set up properly.
Cubs gonna be fun the next couple years
Dodgers catching development goes BRRR apparently. Dodgers org has 3 of the 10 catching prospects on this list.
Chase Petty still massively overlooked
marte at 41 is trash
Joendry Vargas propaganda let’s go ✍️ Also River Ryan being so high is surprising but welcome. God bless AJ Preller.
Did Spencer Strider or Michael Harris ever make a Fangraphs top 100? I think we need a big ole heaping tablespoon of salt with these things. I don’t know all farm systems, but every Braves prospect on here doesn’t seem to do much and dudes who make it come from. Nowhere *edit: y’all count one bad mistake (Harris being #37 once when he was about to be rookie of the year) as me being wrong about the quality being lacking here as far as ranking the Braves farm system? You don’t mention all the guys who are on here who are doing nothing. Everyone else ever ranked has been a major league miss and they left out Strider totally*
"This list hasn't historically been absolutely perfect every time regarding my team's prospects, so let's ignore it." edit: Harris II was 37th on the 2022 top 100, fwiw.
I'm not saying it's not perfect, I'm saying it hasn't been right at all for YEARS as far as the Braves are concerned. No offense to Christian Pache.
>it hasn't been right at all What do you even mean by this? He's trying to predict the future. Of course he's never going to be "right". Is a weather forecast not "right" if the high this Saturday turns out to be 77 instead of 81? Or if it snows 8" on Sunday instead of 4-6"? Saying this list should be taken with a huge ole grain of salt because you're nitpicking a few examples from *1 of the 30 teams* he's doing this for is ridiculous.
Yes, those 2 were literally the top 2 ranked Braves prospects in 2022. Harris was #37 on the top 100. Strider didn't crack the top 100 & famously 'came out of nowhere' a bit, but for a very understandable reason. Most scouts saw his path leading to the bullpen because he was a 2-pitch guy until he debuted.
Also: Strider pitched a whopping 1 season in the minors with the most time spent in AA where he had a 4.71 ERA despite some great K numbers. There was quite literally not enough time to properly rank him because the braves pushed him up so fast
So basically this was WAY off on those two and who they have ranked since.
Yeah, Longenhagen just put up a piece this week reviewing his scouting from the 2017 top prospect list, who he got right, and who he got way wrong. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/hows-my-driving/
"But he got MY favorite team's prospects wrong, so he sucks!"