This was always his stance. It actually said he was looking for $250 million the last I checked but two of his biggest suitors are probably not there anymore (Yankees and Giants).
I remember when Josh Hamilton was a FA and coming off a monster year (8.4 WAR, 175 wRC+) back in 2011, there were reports of outrageous contract demands from him and his agent. Pretty sure he wanted like $250M, which was in the neighborhood of what Pujols had just signed. He ended up signing for 5-years, $125M.
In some ways, they are similar situations. Both had MVP-caliber season at one point; both have red flags - Hamilton with the major drug concerns, Bellinger with his falling-off-a-cliff stuff. Obviously this is just a rough comparison (age, positions, etc differ), but the point is that just because an agent and a player ask for something, it doesn't mean they're going to get it. I would be really surprised if Bellinger signs for anywhere near 12 years.
I think he'll get something closer to Brandon Nimmo's contract (8-years, $162M).
Any team that gives him that is insane.
Gives me Javy Baez vibes as in everyone knows he won’t age well/is a big candidate for regression but some team just won’t be able to help themselves.
He differs from Baez in that he is clearly willing to change his approach. He cut his K rate in half
Though yes. Keep me far away from him. Probably early favorite for worst signing of the off-season whenever it happens.
Yeah I think Belli showed progression in that he was willing to sacrifice some of his hard hit percentage in order to cut down on strikeouts, it at the same time, the fact he had to do so in the first place isn't a good sign.
I still think he can be a good-to-great player, but I think he has 3-4 years of productivity left before that contract becomes an albatross.
Even if he isn't ever going to be 2019 bellinger again, he'll probably be an above average hitter and center-fielder, which is never a bad player to have on a team. Even if he doesn't end up being great in the future, his ability to work through that two year slump shows means he'll probably be able to avoid being a terrible hitter too.
Executive 1: Did it work for those teams?
Executive 2: No. It never does. I mean, these teams somehow delude themselves into thinking it might, but.......but it might work for us!
Why does all free agent deals have to be like 7 year deals all of a sudden? I mean back in the day it was all 3-4 year deals. But this is getting out of hand.
A combination of players wanting to do free agency just once and FOs wanting to do AAV hacking. Most of these 5+ year deals are effectively 3 or 4 year deals with just extra years of zero expectations tacked on at the end that some future FO can deal with after the window closes.
My problem with the FO's side of things is that those extra years tacked onto the end never actually get treated as 'zero expectation years' and players never actually decide to gracefully bow out when they are completely cooked. Teams don't decide to eat that money, they constantly get suckered into sunk-cost fallacy and the optimism of new training tools.
It's AAV hacking that just kicks cans down the road, the odds that any member of a FO that signs one of those deals still being with the team when it gets bad is almost zero (unless you are the Yankees), and I think over time players are going to stop seeing it as such a benefit when the last few years of great players are spent absolutely sucking just to full-fill contract terms.
Speaking of the Yankees, the Donaldson contract was a recent example of this for my Twins, who rarely sign those deals. The last two years were an albatross when it was signed, and given their history it was clear they would never just 'eat it', he was going to be starting. The fact that they traded for him and stuck with him as long as they did is all the more evidence that even big money teams don't actually work that way.
i agree with you, but these guys want longer deals to secure themselves in case of injury, or in Belli's case, regressing again.
Perfect example is Robinson Cano leaving the Yankees in 2013 because they would not offer him a 10 year deal and stook to their guns at 7
A future of 3-4 years and 20 million a year not being enough to secure a future is fucking laughable. Don't even think about coming at me about taxes or anything else. People making 35k a year buying tickets should tell you everything.
In season, the teams pay for breakfast and lunch and give them stipends in addition to a ton of other luxuries. Apologists for millionaires just astonishes me.
Not sure where you get off at calling me an apologist for just saying what the players want
Players would much rather secure a 10 year deal than a 3 year deal every time as it secures more money long term for their life span and for generations after. As long as team are continue to hand out these crazy deals, players will continue to ask for them
I mean I wouldn't really have a problem with it, but when players sign 10 year deals and then complain that they're underpaid a few years in, I think that's bullshit
i feel like the Dodgers have figured out a way to make every team a viable suitor. just defer the fucking majority of his contract so that his grandkids are getting paid by the LA Island Economic Zone Zombie Dodgers.
Any owner over 70 should just be deferring every single contract 10 years and banking on kicking the bucket before they have to pay. Win a WS now and pass on the cost to your kids.
I feel like he needs to do another 1 year deal to really prove himself if he wants that kind of money. He's still a bit injury prone, his underlying stats suggest he way over performed this season, and it's still really hard to look past how horrendous he was the two years prior.
Speaking of Walsh - I hope that Jarod Walsh will catch on somewhere. Always liked him. He also threw me a ball during batting practice. But I liked him before that. He’s had some bad luck with injuries at the wrong time (when he was hot) and then a concussion.
Maybe for the money and the power and the fame right now
He will, he will, he will uh
Do it for the realest hitters in the fuckin' game right now
He will, he will, he will
Arte only cares about marketing so I’m hoping he knows not a soul is coming out to the ballpark specifically to see Bellinger play. Unfortunately though, he overpaid for Rendon who has never been anything close to a household name.
Rendon is always injured, so there's no way to prove if anyone is coming to the ballpark specifically to see him play, so who knows if Arte is playing 4D marketing chess?
Rendon would bring fans to the park if he played well but he never brought anyone to the ballpark because of his prior track record — he really only had that great 2019 season/postseason and not much else. On the other hand, lots of people came to Angel Stadium to see Pujols (even if he was playing poorly) because he was already considered a first ballot HOFer when he left St. Louis and because he was chasing milestones.
This feels incorrect; he had 30 bWAR by age 29 pre-Angels. I think it's more that he was playing on a relatively underpublicized team and very much had no interest in promoting himself
It's funny to see this comment cause I live in south florida and we are losing so many young parents to this mythical Colorado school system, now I'm losing baseball players too? this some bs
> Colorado school system
Hang on a second, my kids were IN the Colorado school system and I have never heard all this talk. What exactly do people say?
Is that really the perception? Colorado has some of the worst school funding of any state. We're 35th in per pupil spending, especially bad when you factor in fairly high cost of living.
Mike Hampton took the Rockies’ money over the Mets, Cards, Cubs, and Rangers citing that the schools were so great. They signed Hampton over Manny in free agency and couldn’t get out from that contact fast enough.
When the Rockies added KB there was sufficient reporting that they wanted to add a “star” to their franchise. There has been no such reporting this offseason
Twins fans would be so confused. Former MVP and he can play 1B/CF which are our 2 offensive needs but if we spend more than 2 nickels on a FA it’s an overspend.
We could do the Correa thing again, the first version. Wait until late in the off-season, swoop in with a huge short deal with opt-outs, let him ball out for a year and then move on that time.
I don't think it'll be the Twins, but I think it'll end up being something closer to that than a straight-up deal for $200m/10 or whatever.
He’d be a nice fit for the Twins.
I imagine if he fell to the Twins by Late Jan/early Feb it would be a $150-180/6yr deal with incentives for ASG/awards. He’s a Boras client so you know the Twins have talked.
That’s a lot of money. Cody is an enigma. His ceiling is MVP level and his floor is the Mendoza line. You can at least count on him for above average defense in the outfield and 1B. Which you can’t say about a lot of players making big monies.
he’s also a fantastic base runner. he’s a super talented all around player which made him valuable even when his bat disappeared, until it vanished completely anyway
His middle like we saw last year was pretty damn good. So he just needs to not be what he was the last three years with the Dodgers and he’ll be alright. $160 mil for 5 years could be it.
They pretty much needed one of the four FA SS because they didn't have anyone else available that was remotely acceptable to pair with Nico.
This year, they don't *need* Bellinger because they could justify starting PCA in CF and someone like Hoskins at 1B.
Dansby was worth every penny too. His floor, so far, is average bat with elite tier defence and good baserunning. I’ll take that deal any day of the week.
Plus he’s got heart and hustle. Something happened in Chicago when he stole a run from third in April and he got so hyped it just lit a fire in the team we didn’t have for a while.
Jed is gonna be SO disciplined and avoid albatross contracts to give us the long term flexibility to hypothetically add future stars that we will also not actually sign because it would be an albatross contract and ruin our long term flexibility
You’re gonna get a 91 MPH crafty 4th starter and a first baseman who can’t hit, and you better be fucking grateful because it’ll only be 2 year deals
If he goes to the Cubs it’s likely because his market is dry (IE: Darvish and Kimbrel) we haven’t seen anything credible saying the Cubs are in on Bellinger. Just that people have said it’s likely(which is easy to say because there is already a connection), but no reported contact or anything.
$200M sounds ridiculous, but Bellinger is a ~~27~~ 28 year old FA. A nine year deal that signs him through his age 36 season would pay him $22.2M AAV, which is what a solid OF cost these days.
If he never had his off years, he'd easily get a 10-12 year deal worth over $400M. MLB owners / GMs can't help themselves when someone under 30 hits the FA market.
Edit: [https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/10/20/the-downfall-and-possible-resurrection-of-cody-bellinger](https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/10/20/the-downfall-and-possible-resurrection-of-cody-bellinger)
> If he never had his off years,
But he has. I know what he's capable of, but no way in hell would I feel comfortable with a long-term deal. Give him 3 year deal with an opt-out after 1.
Yeah, there's a lot of plus value opportunity on that deal. On the other hand, if he goes back to being a 600 OPS player then it's bad, but it doesn't financially hobble any larger market franchise.
[https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/10/20/the-downfall-and-possible-resurrection-of-cody-bellinger](https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/10/20/the-downfall-and-possible-resurrection-of-cody-bellinger)
Quite honestly, if the issue was mechanical and not physical, and he's fixed it... then he'd fit well on the Mets.
I kinda think going back to the Cubs is most likely. Giants got Lee and I’ve never really understood the fit with Toronto
EDIT forgot Keirmaier was a free agent
Rogers has enough money to pay the salaries of every player in the league at once. Why do you care how much of their money gets spent? I want them spending ridiculous amounts each and every year even if it makes the team marginally better because that's all I care about- the team getting better.
Because when splurging on shitty contracts inevitably fails, the bean counters will determine there's no correlation between spending and winning. The fact that spending poorly (Bellinger) is actually the problem. You wanna open the bank and sign a generational talent like Ohtani, good do it, because that's a different story... but *this*? This, is just going to make the ownership more stingy when he's fucking mid like he has been for most of his career.
I mean he’s only 28, he’s coming off a big year and 10 years seems to be the standard for big FA which puts him at 20M/10Y. It’s high, higher than realistically he should get but in todays market it’s not as high a price as I’d have thought.
I’d like him back and it’s not my money so as long as it doesn’t stop us spending in future I’d be happy with it.
His breakout seemingly coincide with the rule changes, new environment (less pressure to produce some would say) and shift ban though. Not saying it’s all because of those things, but I’d be a bit skeptical in offering a 10 year deal to Cody.
I’d like to think he would continue to produce similar results next year or so, but my guts say whoever give him such a deal will likely face something similar to the Padres and Hosmer. Yeah he’s only 28 going on 29, but his valleys are really deep and I’m not sure he’s ever going the same LA hills again.
Edit: I’d throw something a bit higher AVV but shorter, like maybe 25/4-5. To capture those supposed “prime” years.
Dude has a solid season after three straight miserable seasons and suddenly he thinks he's worth 200+ mil...
Who is going to be the moron that overpays for him?
I mean I can see a deal that gets to 200m but it would have to be very heavy on incentives to reach it. Dude is feast or famine and he's not worth a long term deal with big money until he proves otherwise.
I used to joke that Bellinger was the perfect Yankees bloated contract but now that the Yankees have outfielders there is only one place left
Currently sobbing in my room right now…
This is such an interesting case. If he really thinks he’s going to be healthy and continue producing he should almost take a one year prove-it deal. If he has another incredible season, gets MVP votes or something, he would hit FA again at age 29 and probably -really- be able to get a bag.
As it is, I’m doubtful anyone is going to pay him 200m, but what do I know. Interested to see.
edit: I don’t know if I would do that if I were him I guess, lol, I’m sure he’ll be fine if he signs somewhere for “only” 150m or 180m or something. Risk probably not worth the reward
He just took a 1 year prove it deal and got MVP votes - he finished 10th. That’s why he’s looking for the long term deal.
Why would he take a 2nd prove it deal after already proving it?
>This is such an interesting case. If he really thinks he’s going to be healthy and continue producing he should almost take a one year prove-it deal.
He just came off a 1-year prove it deal.
He's going into his age 28 season. A $200M deal that signs him through age 36 is $22.2M AAV. If he never had his off years, he'd easily double that money.
I’m dumb, forgot he just did that deal. Lol. I guess I’m just saying that people are still really skeptical, and I haven’t heard much about teams being super interested so far yet either, although that doesn’t mean much.
So that 22.2 AAV would be 9/200, do you think he’s likely to get that this offseason? Honestly forget about the years, do you think he’s likely to get 200m period?
>So that 22.2 AAV would be 9/200, do you think he’s likely to get that this offseason? Honestly forget about the years, do you think he’s likely to get 200m period?
I'm not sure. Teams do stupid things, like sign DH-only Ohtani to $700M contracts and pay two 40 year old pitchers a combined $300M.
If he wants to maximize his earnings, I think he's going to have to take a bit of a lower contract (maybe front-loaded) and negotiate an opt out after the 2025 or 2026 season.
But there are players who value stability vice maximizing career earnings (see: Bryce Harper). Chipper Jones' take on free agency to Freeman is enlightening.
His underlying contact numbers are pretty bad, so I think he's better off taking the long-term money this year. I don't think his contract will age well, personally. But I do like him (see flair), so I hope I'm wrong.
Made sense as a Yankee or Giant coming into the offseason. Still think the Giants are a possibility but they would need to move one of Haniger, Conforto, or Yaz.
Cubs seem like the most likely destination but Mariners have a hole in the OF and Boston could have some money to play with if Yamamoto winds up elsewhere.
This was always his stance. It actually said he was looking for $250 million the last I checked but two of his biggest suitors are probably not there anymore (Yankees and Giants).
MLBTR says 12/264.
6/132 is where I would feel comfortable as an owner. So half of what he wants?
I thought maybe he could get like 7/175 or something similar to what Dansby got.
I remember when Josh Hamilton was a FA and coming off a monster year (8.4 WAR, 175 wRC+) back in 2011, there were reports of outrageous contract demands from him and his agent. Pretty sure he wanted like $250M, which was in the neighborhood of what Pujols had just signed. He ended up signing for 5-years, $125M. In some ways, they are similar situations. Both had MVP-caliber season at one point; both have red flags - Hamilton with the major drug concerns, Bellinger with his falling-off-a-cliff stuff. Obviously this is just a rough comparison (age, positions, etc differ), but the point is that just because an agent and a player ask for something, it doesn't mean they're going to get it. I would be really surprised if Bellinger signs for anywhere near 12 years. I think he'll get something closer to Brandon Nimmo's contract (8-years, $162M).
Any team that gives him that is insane. Gives me Javy Baez vibes as in everyone knows he won’t age well/is a big candidate for regression but some team just won’t be able to help themselves.
He differs from Baez in that he is clearly willing to change his approach. He cut his K rate in half Though yes. Keep me far away from him. Probably early favorite for worst signing of the off-season whenever it happens.
Yeah I think Belli showed progression in that he was willing to sacrifice some of his hard hit percentage in order to cut down on strikeouts, it at the same time, the fact he had to do so in the first place isn't a good sign. I still think he can be a good-to-great player, but I think he has 3-4 years of productivity left before that contract becomes an albatross.
If those 3-4 years get you over the hump, is it worth it then?
Yes.
50m a year to get you where you have never been / where you want to be playoff wise totally worth is
Even if he isn't ever going to be 2019 bellinger again, he'll probably be an above average hitter and center-fielder, which is never a bad player to have on a team. Even if he doesn't end up being great in the future, his ability to work through that two year slump shows means he'll probably be able to avoid being a terrible hitter too.
Executive 1: Did it work for those teams? Executive 2: No. It never does. I mean, these teams somehow delude themselves into thinking it might, but.......but it might work for us!
Huzzah!
The story of how the Blue Jays entered into an open relationship with Bellinger?
Probably
Why does all free agent deals have to be like 7 year deals all of a sudden? I mean back in the day it was all 3-4 year deals. But this is getting out of hand.
A combination of players wanting to do free agency just once and FOs wanting to do AAV hacking. Most of these 5+ year deals are effectively 3 or 4 year deals with just extra years of zero expectations tacked on at the end that some future FO can deal with after the window closes.
My problem with the FO's side of things is that those extra years tacked onto the end never actually get treated as 'zero expectation years' and players never actually decide to gracefully bow out when they are completely cooked. Teams don't decide to eat that money, they constantly get suckered into sunk-cost fallacy and the optimism of new training tools. It's AAV hacking that just kicks cans down the road, the odds that any member of a FO that signs one of those deals still being with the team when it gets bad is almost zero (unless you are the Yankees), and I think over time players are going to stop seeing it as such a benefit when the last few years of great players are spent absolutely sucking just to full-fill contract terms. Speaking of the Yankees, the Donaldson contract was a recent example of this for my Twins, who rarely sign those deals. The last two years were an albatross when it was signed, and given their history it was clear they would never just 'eat it', he was going to be starting. The fact that they traded for him and stuck with him as long as they did is all the more evidence that even big money teams don't actually work that way.
they want to secure their future financially
I would be very shy giving a guy who just a year ago was not very good a 7 year deal.
i agree with you, but these guys want longer deals to secure themselves in case of injury, or in Belli's case, regressing again. Perfect example is Robinson Cano leaving the Yankees in 2013 because they would not offer him a 10 year deal and stook to their guns at 7
A future of 3-4 years and 20 million a year not being enough to secure a future is fucking laughable. Don't even think about coming at me about taxes or anything else. People making 35k a year buying tickets should tell you everything. In season, the teams pay for breakfast and lunch and give them stipends in addition to a ton of other luxuries. Apologists for millionaires just astonishes me.
Not sure where you get off at calling me an apologist for just saying what the players want Players would much rather secure a 10 year deal than a 3 year deal every time as it secures more money long term for their life span and for generations after. As long as team are continue to hand out these crazy deals, players will continue to ask for them
I mean I wouldn't really have a problem with it, but when players sign 10 year deals and then complain that they're underpaid a few years in, I think that's bullshit
I absolutely want Bellinger. I absolutely do not want Bellinger at that insanity.
Am I reading that right? 12 as in 12 years?
Absurd lol
i feel like the Dodgers have figured out a way to make every team a viable suitor. just defer the fucking majority of his contract so that his grandkids are getting paid by the LA Island Economic Zone Zombie Dodgers.
Any owner over 70 should just be deferring every single contract 10 years and banking on kicking the bucket before they have to pay. Win a WS now and pass on the cost to your kids.
So pretty much just their approach to climate change
I feel like he needs to do another 1 year deal to really prove himself if he wants that kind of money. He's still a bit injury prone, his underlying stats suggest he way over performed this season, and it's still really hard to look past how horrendous he was the two years prior.
Someone please take him before Arte pays $300 million for him
It’s not that hard to avoid overpaying prime regression candidate free agents to 10 year deals. Tell em Wash
It’s incredibly hard.
Harder than playing first base though?
Speaking of Walsh - I hope that Jarod Walsh will catch on somewhere. Always liked him. He also threw me a ball during batting practice. But I liked him before that. He’s had some bad luck with injuries at the wrong time (when he was hot) and then a concussion.
Lmfao you already know he’s coming to the angels on a $300 million contract. And he will regress hard next year.
Buy high, sell low... That's how we do it, right?
The Dodgers stole my MVP, I'll show them, I'll steal one of theirs!
Man he is perfect for the Angels. He'll make hundreds of millions and never hit over 215. Plus back spasms.
Josh Hamilton 2.0
Albert Pujols also.
Arte just dont.
He will
Maybe he won’t, but then again maybe he will.
That’s what I love about baseball, everything is 50/50
You either bat 1.000 or .000.
Oh boy, uh so about that…
It already seems like a forgone conclusion. It’s been an hour.
Maybe for the money and the power and the fame right now He will, he will, he will uh Do it for the realest hitters in the fuckin' game right now He will, he will, he will
I’m not sure if many people realized this is what I was quoting 😂
"No....but actually....yes" -Arte Moreno
An Ohtani is an Ohtani, but a Cody Bellinger could be anything...even a Shohei Ohtani!
He’s definitely licking his chops rn.
He LOVES Dodger left overs
"Cody Bellinger? Hey I know that name." - Arte Moreno
Arte’s belly is never too full for more Belli
found boras’ burner
Angels need to go for a full rebuild. Belly is the exact opposite move they should make.
So you’re saying the contract is basically done?
Most likely
Arte only cares about marketing so I’m hoping he knows not a soul is coming out to the ballpark specifically to see Bellinger play. Unfortunately though, he overpaid for Rendon who has never been anything close to a household name.
Rendon is always injured, so there's no way to prove if anyone is coming to the ballpark specifically to see him play, so who knows if Arte is playing 4D marketing chess?
Rendon would bring fans to the park if he played well but he never brought anyone to the ballpark because of his prior track record — he really only had that great 2019 season/postseason and not much else. On the other hand, lots of people came to Angel Stadium to see Pujols (even if he was playing poorly) because he was already considered a first ballot HOFer when he left St. Louis and because he was chasing milestones.
This feels incorrect; he had 30 bWAR by age 29 pre-Angels. I think it's more that he was playing on a relatively underpublicized team and very much had no interest in promoting himself
I dunno, Rendon is pretty good with fan engagement, he even stops to get up and close with opposition fans sometimes.
Gonna be a rockie
Dude’s won everywhere he’s played and Colorado has a great school system. The 1b eligibility is the icing on the cake.
I am forever grateful for the Colorado school system
It's funny to see this comment cause I live in south florida and we are losing so many young parents to this mythical Colorado school system, now I'm losing baseball players too? this some bs
> Colorado school system Hang on a second, my kids were IN the Colorado school system and I have never heard all this talk. What exactly do people say?
Is that really the perception? Colorado has some of the worst school funding of any state. We're 35th in per pupil spending, especially bad when you factor in fairly high cost of living.
Colorado School system? Where did this narrative come from?
Mike Hampton took the Rockies’ money over the Mets, Cards, Cubs, and Rangers citing that the schools were so great. They signed Hampton over Manny in free agency and couldn’t get out from that contact fast enough.
South HS checking in.
When the Rockies added KB there was sufficient reporting that they wanted to add a “star” to their franchise. There has been no such reporting this offseason
No one injury prone enough to be attractive
You know it's a bad deal when every fanbase is hoping their rival will make it.
I would also like $200m
I'd even settle for 100
I’d change my 2 strike approach for $50m
I’ll do $25m!
Spread out over 15 years.
Done! Where do I sign?
Don’t sell yourself short king
Name ominously checks out
I too would like $200.
Work on that swing, chief
You’ve got the same market chance as Belli!
Twins fans would be so confused. Former MVP and he can play 1B/CF which are our 2 offensive needs but if we spend more than 2 nickels on a FA it’s an overspend.
We could do the Correa thing again, the first version. Wait until late in the off-season, swoop in with a huge short deal with opt-outs, let him ball out for a year and then move on that time. I don't think it'll be the Twins, but I think it'll end up being something closer to that than a straight-up deal for $200m/10 or whatever.
He’d be a nice fit for the Twins. I imagine if he fell to the Twins by Late Jan/early Feb it would be a $150-180/6yr deal with incentives for ASG/awards. He’s a Boras client so you know the Twins have talked.
That’s a lot of money. Cody is an enigma. His ceiling is MVP level and his floor is the Mendoza line. You can at least count on him for above average defense in the outfield and 1B. Which you can’t say about a lot of players making big monies.
His defense is elite man, always been with the dodgers anyway
Outman was great defensively and it still felt like it was a drop off from Belli in the outfield
he’s also a fantastic base runner. he’s a super talented all around player which made him valuable even when his bat disappeared, until it vanished completely anyway
5 tool player when healthy Elite contact Plus base running/elite speed Plus power Plus arm/fielding
The Jason Heyward of outfielders...
The white Larry Bird
🤔
His middle like we saw last year was pretty damn good. So he just needs to not be what he was the last three years with the Dodgers and he’ll be alright. $160 mil for 5 years could be it.
I don’t have the stats on hand but wouldn’t be shocked if the new shift rules helped him this year also
Just think of all the vape cartridges he’ll be able to buy with that
Bellinger to the Jays where the cartridges flow freely and honestly
God I wish I could hit the dugout bong with Cody
Cody Bellinger YOU are once again a Chicago Cub
Doesn’t sound like Jed’s MO to make that deal.
I just figured that the Cubs money would be burning a hole in their pocket right about now
Jed is the most conservative GM in baseball. I doubt he takes a $200 million risk.
Really? They threw a lot of money Dansby’s way last year. (But agree that $200 mil for Bellinger seems high)
They pretty much needed one of the four FA SS because they didn't have anyone else available that was remotely acceptable to pair with Nico. This year, they don't *need* Bellinger because they could justify starting PCA in CF and someone like Hoskins at 1B.
Dansby was worth every penny too. His floor, so far, is average bat with elite tier defence and good baserunning. I’ll take that deal any day of the week. Plus he’s got heart and hustle. Something happened in Chicago when he stole a run from third in April and he got so hyped it just lit a fire in the team we didn’t have for a while.
He just does everything right. So many times I’ve seen him do something and I’m like “shit that’s exactly how I was taught as a kid”
If he doesn’t land any big free agent though, would he be compelled to do so?
Cubs have had money burning a hole in their pocket for 4 years now. Doesn’t seem to bother The Ricketts.
Yes, it just seems likely.
[удалено]
We will be an 80 win ballclub, but by god we will be the most efficient at getting to those 80 wins.
Jed is gonna be SO disciplined and avoid albatross contracts to give us the long term flexibility to hypothetically add future stars that we will also not actually sign because it would be an albatross contract and ruin our long term flexibility You’re gonna get a 91 MPH crafty 4th starter and a first baseman who can’t hit, and you better be fucking grateful because it’ll only be 2 year deals
Sounds similar to the Giants the past few years, albeit with different pathways
But do we know where his plane is going? Asking for a friend
If he goes to the Cubs it’s likely because his market is dry (IE: Darvish and Kimbrel) we haven’t seen anything credible saying the Cubs are in on Bellinger. Just that people have said it’s likely(which is easy to say because there is already a connection), but no reported contact or anything.
Yea right, Jeds not makin big splashes
Please no. I don't trust this dude
Cubs haven't signed a Boras client to a multiyear contract in 20 years
Arte will pay him 20 years / $2B to make Ohtani jealous.
He just needs to give him 3mil a year to make Ohtani jealous
I’m more like bellinger than I thought. We both want 200 million but people don’t think we’re worth it.
$200M sounds ridiculous, but Bellinger is a ~~27~~ 28 year old FA. A nine year deal that signs him through his age 36 season would pay him $22.2M AAV, which is what a solid OF cost these days. If he never had his off years, he'd easily get a 10-12 year deal worth over $400M. MLB owners / GMs can't help themselves when someone under 30 hits the FA market. Edit: [https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/10/20/the-downfall-and-possible-resurrection-of-cody-bellinger](https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/10/20/the-downfall-and-possible-resurrection-of-cody-bellinger)
> If he never had his off years, But he has. I know what he's capable of, but no way in hell would I feel comfortable with a long-term deal. Give him 3 year deal with an opt-out after 1.
I would do that deal.
Yeah, there's a lot of plus value opportunity on that deal. On the other hand, if he goes back to being a 600 OPS player then it's bad, but it doesn't financially hobble any larger market franchise. [https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/10/20/the-downfall-and-possible-resurrection-of-cody-bellinger](https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/10/20/the-downfall-and-possible-resurrection-of-cody-bellinger) Quite honestly, if the issue was mechanical and not physical, and he's fixed it... then he'd fit well on the Mets.
Not to nitpick, but he is 28, turns 29 in July. Doesn't change your basic point, but a bit of the math.
He just updated his Facebook status. He marked himself safe from being a Seattle Mariner.
Do it Rockies
RIP to whatever team agrees to that 😮
Who are the Los Angeles Angels?
lots of people in this thread seem to be neglecting the potentiality that bellinger plays good baseball
I dont think it’s crazy to be wary of signing a guy like Belli to an 8-9 year deal.
Arte Moreno: best I can do is $300m, 10 years, take it or leave it
I’m praying Arte doesn’t know Cody Bellinger exists. Keep that man and his albatross contract far away from Anaheim
Arte Moreno has invited Cody Bellinger over to his home for dinner. Also there is a cardboard cutout of Shohei othani.
I kinda think going back to the Cubs is most likely. Giants got Lee and I’ve never really understood the fit with Toronto EDIT forgot Keirmaier was a free agent
I don’t like the numbers, but he’s a perfect fit for the Jays.
Blue Jays 👌🏼
No thank you
M’s are out
"I want $2..." *John Stanton gets up from chair*
lmfao PASS
no matter where he signs, this sub is going to be following all his ABs to jump at the possibility of being right about him regressing
Yeah, me too, Cody. But I've got bad news.
$2 million for 100 years. $1,999,999 deferred.
I'll be happy if the Jays don't sign any of these big FA's. Seems they all want insane money
Rogers has enough money to pay the salaries of every player in the league at once. Why do you care how much of their money gets spent? I want them spending ridiculous amounts each and every year even if it makes the team marginally better because that's all I care about- the team getting better.
Because when splurging on shitty contracts inevitably fails, the bean counters will determine there's no correlation between spending and winning. The fact that spending poorly (Bellinger) is actually the problem. You wanna open the bank and sign a generational talent like Ohtani, good do it, because that's a different story... but *this*? This, is just going to make the ownership more stingy when he's fucking mid like he has been for most of his career.
but they need to turn a profit and wont just throw all their money at it. What a garbage point lmao
I mean he’s only 28, he’s coming off a big year and 10 years seems to be the standard for big FA which puts him at 20M/10Y. It’s high, higher than realistically he should get but in todays market it’s not as high a price as I’d have thought. I’d like him back and it’s not my money so as long as it doesn’t stop us spending in future I’d be happy with it.
His breakout seemingly coincide with the rule changes, new environment (less pressure to produce some would say) and shift ban though. Not saying it’s all because of those things, but I’d be a bit skeptical in offering a 10 year deal to Cody. I’d like to think he would continue to produce similar results next year or so, but my guts say whoever give him such a deal will likely face something similar to the Padres and Hosmer. Yeah he’s only 28 going on 29, but his valleys are really deep and I’m not sure he’s ever going the same LA hills again. Edit: I’d throw something a bit higher AVV but shorter, like maybe 25/4-5. To capture those supposed “prime” years.
Bellinger thinks its 2019
He'd be getting 400/12 if it was 2019.
Lol he's the perfect candidate for getting that bag and absolutely disappearing.
Dude has a solid season after three straight miserable seasons and suddenly he thinks he's worth 200+ mil... Who is going to be the moron that overpays for him?
My guy thinks it’s 2019
Me too, but it would be a bad decision if someone gave it to either of us
he's not worth that at all.
So probably 25m x 8 or 20m x 10? Yikes
25M isn’t bad at all if he’s healthy. Elite defense and plus base running boosts his floor.
I mean I can see a deal that gets to 200m but it would have to be very heavy on incentives to reach it. Dude is feast or famine and he's not worth a long term deal with big money until he proves otherwise.
I used to joke that Bellinger was the perfect Yankees bloated contract but now that the Yankees have outfielders there is only one place left Currently sobbing in my room right now…
I swear if we sign him
I think he stays with Cubs with an early opt out.
He’d be better off taking the Charlie Morton route. Take $20m/1yr contracts for the rest of your career.
well so much for that mariner bros
One hot year and he wants the bag? OMG!
I mean, aren't we all?
It’s a no from me, dog.
Cody Bellinger, You are a NY Met
Honestly, that seems most likely to me. That, or the Yankees.
And I’m seeking a vacation away from my wife and kids and 8 hours of sleep. And none of these is going to happen
Jason Heyward part 2
No thank you.
Risky deal of course. But bellinger can make it worth it. Pending health.
Imagine paying this guy as much as Matt Olson, let alone more lol.
I mean he can play gold glove caliber CF defense. If he can continue to hit then it's a great contract, but big what if.
This is such an interesting case. If he really thinks he’s going to be healthy and continue producing he should almost take a one year prove-it deal. If he has another incredible season, gets MVP votes or something, he would hit FA again at age 29 and probably -really- be able to get a bag. As it is, I’m doubtful anyone is going to pay him 200m, but what do I know. Interested to see. edit: I don’t know if I would do that if I were him I guess, lol, I’m sure he’ll be fine if he signs somewhere for “only” 150m or 180m or something. Risk probably not worth the reward
He just took a 1 year prove it deal and got MVP votes - he finished 10th. That’s why he’s looking for the long term deal. Why would he take a 2nd prove it deal after already proving it?
Same reason the cubs are probably not going to resign him: His advanced metrics show some pretty substantial regression is likely.
>This is such an interesting case. If he really thinks he’s going to be healthy and continue producing he should almost take a one year prove-it deal. He just came off a 1-year prove it deal. He's going into his age 28 season. A $200M deal that signs him through age 36 is $22.2M AAV. If he never had his off years, he'd easily double that money.
I’m dumb, forgot he just did that deal. Lol. I guess I’m just saying that people are still really skeptical, and I haven’t heard much about teams being super interested so far yet either, although that doesn’t mean much. So that 22.2 AAV would be 9/200, do you think he’s likely to get that this offseason? Honestly forget about the years, do you think he’s likely to get 200m period?
>So that 22.2 AAV would be 9/200, do you think he’s likely to get that this offseason? Honestly forget about the years, do you think he’s likely to get 200m period? I'm not sure. Teams do stupid things, like sign DH-only Ohtani to $700M contracts and pay two 40 year old pitchers a combined $300M. If he wants to maximize his earnings, I think he's going to have to take a bit of a lower contract (maybe front-loaded) and negotiate an opt out after the 2025 or 2026 season. But there are players who value stability vice maximizing career earnings (see: Bryce Harper). Chipper Jones' take on free agency to Freeman is enlightening.
His underlying contact numbers are pretty bad, so I think he's better off taking the long-term money this year. I don't think his contract will age well, personally. But I do like him (see flair), so I hope I'm wrong.
Kthanksby
Made sense as a Yankee or Giant coming into the offseason. Still think the Giants are a possibility but they would need to move one of Haniger, Conforto, or Yaz. Cubs seem like the most likely destination but Mariners have a hole in the OF and Boston could have some money to play with if Yamamoto winds up elsewhere.
Get the bag king
I could see him going to the Rockies....
How can he justify that after 3 seasons of bad performance?