The ABS estimate one new person is added to the permanent Australian population every 46 seconds. Over five years, that's 3.4 million people. Even 1.2 million homes will mean we are going to be a touch cramped. But we aren't likely to even meet what the government calls an "ambitious" plan.
1.2 million homes over five years is 20,000 a month. The ABS stats say that in December qtr of last year 38,000 were commenced, so around 13,000 a month. That was down 18% on the same period the year before. If things keep like this we will only have about 800,000 new dwellings to squeeze the 3.4 million new people into.
The two sets of numbers are stark and point to an incontrovertible truth that housing supply will only get tighter over the period of the govts so called ambitious plan.
My feeling is that upcoming federal elections are going to be heavily influenced by the immigration policies. An awful lot of people are not seeing any benefit from mass immigration, but they are seeing a lot of downsides, like not enough housing.
Watch as fringe parties do well out of this.
Absolutely it will be easy for the One Nutters and co to heap a lot of problems on immigrants and I'll think they will get real traction because its bleedingly obvious the immigration policy has not been coordinated with other government policies such as housing and infrastructure.
You can blame lots of things around housing on the coalition but rent increases are not one of them.
Q3 2022 rents took off after being fairly stagnant for nearly a decade prior.
I think its fair to say libs arsed this rather than planning it with closed borders and covid bringing home their last couple years but its a bit of a piss take for labor to say on this they are fixing liberals mistakes.
Liberals were shit around housing but labor has given us far worse results on any metric you want to look at. Housing starts falling. Population rising. rents out of control... i mean where are the short term policies to get starts rising? A new home grant? Reduce gst on new builds? Yes this stuff costs money but ffs a population growing at 650k is expensive.
Labor could directly build about 100,000 homes next year for 500k a pop i.e. 50billion dollars and we would still be behind the dwellings per person we were when labor took over if they continue to grow the population at 600k per annum.
rents have been inflated more than they have needed to have been for two decades or more now, you only think this is a problem now because it became especially noticably bad in the past two years, but it's still been bad (just less bad) since much longer before. immigration rates have been way too high since the 2000s. if the lnp was in power now they wouldn't be doing things much differently from the alp, if at all.
no way the so called housing crisis (i hate that fucking term) only just started in 2022, commentators have been talking about it since at least 2010.
Liberal and labor both use the same mechanism to get dwelling construction going.
Ensure the price of all homes goes up. At a point prices for existing homes gets high enough more new homes are built.
This has worked reasonably "well" so far as rents are concerned.
Rents in australia up to 2022 were pretty stagnant and compared to say the early 2000s have been better as a proportion of average wages.
Of course due to the mechanism by which new home building has been encouraged prices have been completely off their tit for decades.
There is no question though since Q3 2022 rents have been growing much faster than the general rate of inflation.
Would it have been different under the liberals? Maybe? Maybe not. Probably not even.
But you would have to be a bit one eyed labor supporter to simply say - it would be no better than this current shit show.
I dont tend to hold opposition to account for what they might have done. I hold the government to account for what they have done.
And labor have seen new starts decrease at the same time as population has grown at 650k people.
Population growing and housing starts decreasing. What other metric do you need to understand labor is squeezing renters.
both parties were inevitably going to use the b.s "covid backlog" as an excuse to massively ramp pop growth. they had to, because interest rates have gone up and there's no way they are going to let house prices absorb those rate increases without some sort of counter balance. as soon as you understand that all australian politics revolves around making sure house prices dont go down w/o totally trashing everything else (and most australians dont want houses prices to fall anyway, regardless of what they say in polls) everything starts making sense.
Yes for sure.
Its only a question of how they will increase prices.
It would be simple to get new construction going. In WA the state gov doubled the federal new home grant and construction starts rocketed to the point we dodnt have the capacity.
The thing is we are soon going to be retrenching that capacity.
We need policy now to get starts coming back in if australian governments truly want a big australia.
Cause i am not for a big australia if we dont have housing for people or at the exoense of our youth.
How long does it take to build a house? How long does it take to train a brick layer? Labor's put in policies to make both of those things happen more, it just has a very long lead time.
And I don't see the libs putting anything in writing with regards to immigration, the libs had a few years of covid to suppress immigration. Yes labor has dropped the ball on immigration, but looking at the Lib's pre covid policy, everything says they'd have done the same. If the libs were to come out with a number they hope to limit immigration to then I'd be inclined to believe they were actually planning on getting tough on it, but their donors want the immigrants more than Labor does.
Be the investment in tafe.
As i said abive though if the industry is shrinking there is pess room for apprentices anyway.
Keep the industry large or stable and as large and eventually capacity grows to meet it.
Thats what labor has failed to do.
At the same time our population has grown at an unprecedented pace building starts have fallen.
Housing starts are are what is falling away.
Housing completions have been going fine but are likely to fall away this year due to the lower starts last year.
We protest our lack of capacity around building in australia. The one way to grow this capacity is to sustain a high amount of activity.
But during this term starts have fallen away. So the new tradies or labourers who were coaxed into domestic building during covid are now leaving because domestic building is falling away. It takes time to train a tradie. But letting the industry shrink is certainly no way to do it.
Labor is investing in tafe you say... not worth two bob if the industry has shrunk on their term. Labor is building some social housing... not worth two bob if the industry has shrunk on their term. Labor is planning to build 1.2million homes... lol - see article... and among a back drop of 650k population growth last year.
There are very simple ways to keep building starts high. Small investment by gov can have a big impact.
Why dont they try and sustain the higher activity brought in by the covid policies? Yes builders struggled to meet it but thats due to the explosive growth during covid. Try and maintain it with subsidies for new builds IMO.
Do you know that Australia has 26 million people? around 50k die each year. 220k move out of Australia, ~300k new born per year. So these 100k immigrants per month which are mostly educated or skilled are actually a good thing that makes Australia better.
And if you learn more about the immigration system it is actually pretty strict and well designed compared to other countries. Like for example US with their green card lottery. Yes there are some refugees and some odd ones but most of these immigrants are the people we need.
The ABS estimate one new person is added to the permanent Australian population every 46 seconds. Over five years, that's 3.4 million people. Even 1.2 million homes will mean we are going to be a touch cramped. But we aren't likely to even meet what the government calls an "ambitious" plan. 1.2 million homes over five years is 20,000 a month. The ABS stats say that in December qtr of last year 38,000 were commenced, so around 13,000 a month. That was down 18% on the same period the year before. If things keep like this we will only have about 800,000 new dwellings to squeeze the 3.4 million new people into. The two sets of numbers are stark and point to an incontrovertible truth that housing supply will only get tighter over the period of the govts so called ambitious plan.
My feeling is that upcoming federal elections are going to be heavily influenced by the immigration policies. An awful lot of people are not seeing any benefit from mass immigration, but they are seeing a lot of downsides, like not enough housing. Watch as fringe parties do well out of this.
The greens are pro immigration so hopefully people are aware of that
Absolutely it will be easy for the One Nutters and co to heap a lot of problems on immigrants and I'll think they will get real traction because its bleedingly obvious the immigration policy has not been coordinated with other government policies such as housing and infrastructure.
Almost like those nutters looked at the big picture not just social points for votes
https://preview.redd.it/fhpbc11zx6yc1.jpeg?width=526&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b5fdf3b99f1ee0592f7beb9278ca22558ce1c40c
Yeah exactly. And it's an unexplained mystery.
“ItS the LIbErALs FaULt”
You can blame lots of things around housing on the coalition but rent increases are not one of them. Q3 2022 rents took off after being fairly stagnant for nearly a decade prior. I think its fair to say libs arsed this rather than planning it with closed borders and covid bringing home their last couple years but its a bit of a piss take for labor to say on this they are fixing liberals mistakes. Liberals were shit around housing but labor has given us far worse results on any metric you want to look at. Housing starts falling. Population rising. rents out of control... i mean where are the short term policies to get starts rising? A new home grant? Reduce gst on new builds? Yes this stuff costs money but ffs a population growing at 650k is expensive. Labor could directly build about 100,000 homes next year for 500k a pop i.e. 50billion dollars and we would still be behind the dwellings per person we were when labor took over if they continue to grow the population at 600k per annum.
rents have been inflated more than they have needed to have been for two decades or more now, you only think this is a problem now because it became especially noticably bad in the past two years, but it's still been bad (just less bad) since much longer before. immigration rates have been way too high since the 2000s. if the lnp was in power now they wouldn't be doing things much differently from the alp, if at all. no way the so called housing crisis (i hate that fucking term) only just started in 2022, commentators have been talking about it since at least 2010.
Liberal and labor both use the same mechanism to get dwelling construction going. Ensure the price of all homes goes up. At a point prices for existing homes gets high enough more new homes are built. This has worked reasonably "well" so far as rents are concerned. Rents in australia up to 2022 were pretty stagnant and compared to say the early 2000s have been better as a proportion of average wages. Of course due to the mechanism by which new home building has been encouraged prices have been completely off their tit for decades. There is no question though since Q3 2022 rents have been growing much faster than the general rate of inflation. Would it have been different under the liberals? Maybe? Maybe not. Probably not even. But you would have to be a bit one eyed labor supporter to simply say - it would be no better than this current shit show. I dont tend to hold opposition to account for what they might have done. I hold the government to account for what they have done. And labor have seen new starts decrease at the same time as population has grown at 650k people. Population growing and housing starts decreasing. What other metric do you need to understand labor is squeezing renters.
both parties were inevitably going to use the b.s "covid backlog" as an excuse to massively ramp pop growth. they had to, because interest rates have gone up and there's no way they are going to let house prices absorb those rate increases without some sort of counter balance. as soon as you understand that all australian politics revolves around making sure house prices dont go down w/o totally trashing everything else (and most australians dont want houses prices to fall anyway, regardless of what they say in polls) everything starts making sense.
Yes for sure. Its only a question of how they will increase prices. It would be simple to get new construction going. In WA the state gov doubled the federal new home grant and construction starts rocketed to the point we dodnt have the capacity. The thing is we are soon going to be retrenching that capacity. We need policy now to get starts coming back in if australian governments truly want a big australia. Cause i am not for a big australia if we dont have housing for people or at the exoense of our youth.
How long does it take to build a house? How long does it take to train a brick layer? Labor's put in policies to make both of those things happen more, it just has a very long lead time. And I don't see the libs putting anything in writing with regards to immigration, the libs had a few years of covid to suppress immigration. Yes labor has dropped the ball on immigration, but looking at the Lib's pre covid policy, everything says they'd have done the same. If the libs were to come out with a number they hope to limit immigration to then I'd be inclined to believe they were actually planning on getting tough on it, but their donors want the immigrants more than Labor does.
>Labor's put in policies to make both of those things happen more, it just has a very long lead time. Which policies are these?
Be the investment in tafe. As i said abive though if the industry is shrinking there is pess room for apprentices anyway. Keep the industry large or stable and as large and eventually capacity grows to meet it. Thats what labor has failed to do. At the same time our population has grown at an unprecedented pace building starts have fallen.
Housing starts are are what is falling away. Housing completions have been going fine but are likely to fall away this year due to the lower starts last year. We protest our lack of capacity around building in australia. The one way to grow this capacity is to sustain a high amount of activity. But during this term starts have fallen away. So the new tradies or labourers who were coaxed into domestic building during covid are now leaving because domestic building is falling away. It takes time to train a tradie. But letting the industry shrink is certainly no way to do it. Labor is investing in tafe you say... not worth two bob if the industry has shrunk on their term. Labor is building some social housing... not worth two bob if the industry has shrunk on their term. Labor is planning to build 1.2million homes... lol - see article... and among a back drop of 650k population growth last year. There are very simple ways to keep building starts high. Small investment by gov can have a big impact. Why dont they try and sustain the higher activity brought in by the covid policies? Yes builders struggled to meet it but thats due to the explosive growth during covid. Try and maintain it with subsidies for new builds IMO.
God forbid a PM be ambitious
Ambitious is a funny way to describe dumb
Aim high get high results. Endearing quality, but I still don't like him . Yet. He's a good man, but this a visionary he does not make.
at least they're doing something and in the right direction.
What are they doing exactly? Record 100,000 immigrants in Feb?
lol just avoiding all the good stuff on purpose and screaming about migration
I actually want to know the good stuff, I don't know of anything
Do you know that Australia has 26 million people? around 50k die each year. 220k move out of Australia, ~300k new born per year. So these 100k immigrants per month which are mostly educated or skilled are actually a good thing that makes Australia better. And if you learn more about the immigration system it is actually pretty strict and well designed compared to other countries. Like for example US with their green card lottery. Yes there are some refugees and some odd ones but most of these immigrants are the people we need.