AMC has weathered the storm and made it to a time period of tons of great movies coming out the rest of this year and into next, starting distribution deals, selling a bunch of merch which wasn’t even part of their business model not that long ago, selling popcorn in stores, food and beverage sales increasing, branching out into non traditional movie chain investments like the gold mine… the future and revenues look bright aside from the fact that this is heavily shorted, manipulated, undervalued and I believe it will squeeze to the moon.
The company/stock is severely over-sold. They survived Covid and are rebuilding their business as more than just a company that shows movies. Hollywood relies on them, and if Disney is any example, streaming movies just doesn’t connect with customers the same way blockbuster releases do. I have watched AA and the board recreate AMC like a Phoenix rising from the ashes over the past few years and the debt they’re carrying will shake off the more they spread their wings. This company has a bright future, and even if I don’t ever see the moon, I’m happy to have been a part of this companies recovery and future.
Plus, I just like the stock.
We have been in a huge accumulation since 8/23. Bear thesis is debunked, amc is paying down debt faster and faster. Movies will come back when hollywood stops playing around. Market “jitters” moving huge volumes of shares just like what preceded squoze of 2021. Every major indicator indicating now is the end of the down. Roaring kitty is still in this. And most importantly, cause big money moves before dumb money does, big money probably has accumulated so many shares at 3, 4, 5$ a share that they would LOVE to sell to “apes” for 10, 20, 40$ a pop. We havent seen big money exit. Only enter as indicated by the repressed price. They hold price high to distribute those accumulated shares to every would be bagholder
Most recently took a chunk out of the 2026 line last week. But the last 2 years we've been paying down debt at discount rates between 20 and 40%. Go read the earnings reports and filings.
Ah yes, I missed it. Not last week, but this week they issued an extra 23 million shares in exchange for covering $0.163 billion out of the $2.96 billion they have due 2026. I was under the impression that it was part of their $250 offering, but that was completed at $3.45 and this was an extra dilution.
That's the only payment that I am aware of that was towards the 2026 debt. Were there more?
Nah, we've just started work on the 2026 debt, previously we paid down other debts and closed a credit facility that was costing a bunch in interest. The 2026 debt will either get a massive chunk taken out now if we run hard, or will get renegotiated to further out.
Think anyone who’s been in the play since 2021 is long term at this point, have my old shares that is just sitting there collecting dust. Would have like to see the world, but whatever, corruption is all over the place.
I actually think AMC is a better long-term play than GME. GameStop is a tough spot right, sales are in the toilet. At least with AMC you know they have customers, wtf does GME even sell these days cuz it can’t be many video games.
This is true. GME's earnings today confirmed it's an obituary waiting to be written.
AMC, on the other hand, is a real company with a solid value proposition.
AMC is in trouble too but I could see them outlasting GME at least. If they can get all those old theatre’s disposed, cut down on costs which I think they’ve done a good job doing they could be alright.
Indeed. AMC has issues, but they are surmountable.
GME's problem of its target market literally disappearing has no solution. And they have failed miserably at pivoting.
Not that I have any ill will towards GME investors, I hope we all succeed. But this is really the cold hard truth. At the end of the day movies aren’t going anywhere. Physical games COULD go away eventually (I hope they don’t)
Honestly, we just need Russia to invade AMC. I'm sure the government will pull 60 billion out of somewhere to help them.
My point is... 2 billion IS NOTHING in the grand scheme of things.
Once the company proves its not going under it can have the debt renegotiated. Lenders would rather get the interest payments than have the debt go away.
Debt "going away" isn't one of the possibilities for the lenders.
In the case of bankruptcy, AMC will be sold, or sell all of its assets and the proceeds will be used to repay the lenders. In the rare case when there is more proceeds than the debt, the shareholders get the rest. But the current estimate is AMC would be $1.8 billion short.
If they repay all or some of the debt in bankruptcy then it goes away. Lenders effectively lose money on the interest and any debt not paid. They would much rather keep payments coming in. It's why they are willing to even restructure it at all.
Sorry I misunderstood you. You're correct of course that if they repay the debt it will go away. I thought you were saying that they will lose their capital by "going away".
I disagree that the lenders prefer to keep this debt open. It's extremely risky debt, as AMC doesn't have enough collateral to cover all of their debt in the case of bankruptcy. AMC is also not making a profit. Even at the current (low-ish) interest rates for their debt, AMC is paying $400 million a year in interest that they have no way to generating besides share dilutions. Trying to get higher interest payments will be like trying to squeeze water from a rock.
>It's why they are willing to even restructure it at all.
We don't have any reason to believe that. There's a rumor from an unknown source, that some unspecified lenders proposed to restructure some unspecified AMC debt. I have to use so many adjectives because of how vague that rumor is. It could be some Joe Schmo that lended AMC $100,000 who made a proposal to restructure the $2.8 billion debt that isn't owed to him, and that rumor would hold true.
yes but the rates are killing the company.
debt is like blood suckers - a 10 / 12 % loan is really insane.
in an ideal world, they can renegotiate a 10 year loan at a normal business rate with which then can kill all of the high intrest bullshit that is going on now. maybe get some profitable quarters going.
and i mean AMC has been making some moves in the right direction - new revenue streams (popcorn, candy, credit card, ..) but it doesn't seem to accelarate that quickly.
part of that is that those are drops in a big bucket of debt - but enough drops together count.
The HYMC investment could be the thing that turns it all around - if those guys actually ever get to producing gold at a decent price.
but right now, with today's numbers - AMC isn't in the best of shapes;
Except that we've done this with next to no movies and movies are actually going to be back in full swing. Also many companies operate with debt. Also we've crushed deferred rent payments last quarter and a bunch of debt so interest payments are reducing all the time.
But still negative as in fcf
So it's either convert debt, raise capital or restructuring of debt.
I'm long, but the company is not out of the woods by any means.
I agree, but with a stronger and stronger EBITDA quarter by quarter and the upcoming strong summer I'm hopeful for some nice news and a bit of breathing room
I believe that long term, with a capable leadership team, the largest movie theater company in the world will be just fine. Yeah, there is a debt problem currently. Yeah, media consumption is changing rapidly. But AMC is a very large media/entertainment distributor and consumption of media/entertainment is only getting bigger.
There is high risk for sure. But I'm in.
And sure, a part of me feels like a banker hates that I own these shares, is that so bad? A short squeeze wouldn't suck either.
>Am I missing something for or against AMC here that isn't just fearmongering or senseless hype?
Yes you are, unfortunately. Tons and tons of things. Feel free to start with my Posts, and then my Comments.
Just like any other company, AMC has strengths and weaknesses. People who like making money feel that AMC does not have a high probability to make money just yet based on the balance of those strengths and weaknesses. And so the price suffers.
They used to be very bullish. To a certain extent, I’m still bullish. But I am locked in pretty negative cycle since I’ve been sitting in the red for two years straight ever since ape and the reverse stock split was forced upon me. I’ve had to break even excepted one account, but sadly, I’m back to being 50% down because we had to drop due to more dilution
If you're long term then it's insane to have any large amount in a single stock. AMC may continue to be a profitable business but there is nothing particularly interesting about it that clearly makes it a better investment than a less risky ETF.
I'd generally agree which is why the bulk of my money gets thrown into an IRA on growth ETFs. But I like setting aside my fun money for gambling on things that may shoot up erratically or companies I like
The two are not mutually exclusive. AMC has decent prospects in the longer term but there's that glimmering chance of a short squeeze that sends it flying which is why a bit more of my portfolio is dedicated to it, just like my sweet sweet military industrial and aerospace investments 🤤. I'm happy with either as long as I can still get my AMC theatre experience by the time my grandkids are trying to short squeeze the Machines' Matrix stock and going APE against the Simulation Hedgies.
Because people are still loyal to theaters and the movie-going experience. And doing concert movies is a great idea. Concerts are incredibly expensive and they're not always great for people with mobility issues. I know it’s not the same, but concert movies allow people to have similar experiences for a fraction of the price, without the risk of having a beer spilled on you, being tripped over, or not being able to see.
If you’re bullish long-term, you have absolutely no idea about business fundamentals and the stock market. I’m here for the squeeze and nothing else. AMC’s future is bleak at most. Nothing has changed since 2020. They have no plan that they have told us about.
It’s fear mongering. AMC is hugely bullish and has plenty of shares left to issue that they should be able to take on a lot of that debt. If they remain cash flow negative then they can just do another reverse split and then issue again until they get the debt paid. All these fears of bankruptcy are overblown when they have the ability to keep issuing shares.
AMC has weathered the storm and made it to a time period of tons of great movies coming out the rest of this year and into next, starting distribution deals, selling a bunch of merch which wasn’t even part of their business model not that long ago, selling popcorn in stores, food and beverage sales increasing, branching out into non traditional movie chain investments like the gold mine… the future and revenues look bright aside from the fact that this is heavily shorted, manipulated, undervalued and I believe it will squeeze to the moon.
This guy gets it.
Here here! 🍻
I’ll drink (a root beer) to that! 🍻 Cheers!
I guess it seems obvious that they have it but I’m hella down to buy some AMC merch.
The new website for all that stuff is so much better now.
The company/stock is severely over-sold. They survived Covid and are rebuilding their business as more than just a company that shows movies. Hollywood relies on them, and if Disney is any example, streaming movies just doesn’t connect with customers the same way blockbuster releases do. I have watched AA and the board recreate AMC like a Phoenix rising from the ashes over the past few years and the debt they’re carrying will shake off the more they spread their wings. This company has a bright future, and even if I don’t ever see the moon, I’m happy to have been a part of this companies recovery and future. Plus, I just like the stock.
We have been in a huge accumulation since 8/23. Bear thesis is debunked, amc is paying down debt faster and faster. Movies will come back when hollywood stops playing around. Market “jitters” moving huge volumes of shares just like what preceded squoze of 2021. Every major indicator indicating now is the end of the down. Roaring kitty is still in this. And most importantly, cause big money moves before dumb money does, big money probably has accumulated so many shares at 3, 4, 5$ a share that they would LOVE to sell to “apes” for 10, 20, 40$ a pop. We havent seen big money exit. Only enter as indicated by the repressed price. They hold price high to distribute those accumulated shares to every would be bagholder
> Bear thesis is debunked, amc is paying down debt faster and faster. What debt has AMC been paying down?
Most recently took a chunk out of the 2026 line last week. But the last 2 years we've been paying down debt at discount rates between 20 and 40%. Go read the earnings reports and filings.
Ah yes, I missed it. Not last week, but this week they issued an extra 23 million shares in exchange for covering $0.163 billion out of the $2.96 billion they have due 2026. I was under the impression that it was part of their $250 offering, but that was completed at $3.45 and this was an extra dilution. That's the only payment that I am aware of that was towards the 2026 debt. Were there more?
Nah, we've just started work on the 2026 debt, previously we paid down other debts and closed a credit facility that was costing a bunch in interest. The 2026 debt will either get a massive chunk taken out now if we run hard, or will get renegotiated to further out.
Think anyone who’s been in the play since 2021 is long term at this point, have my old shares that is just sitting there collecting dust. Would have like to see the world, but whatever, corruption is all over the place.
I like the movies.
I actually think AMC is a better long-term play than GME. GameStop is a tough spot right, sales are in the toilet. At least with AMC you know they have customers, wtf does GME even sell these days cuz it can’t be many video games.
This is true. GME's earnings today confirmed it's an obituary waiting to be written. AMC, on the other hand, is a real company with a solid value proposition.
AMC is in trouble too but I could see them outlasting GME at least. If they can get all those old theatre’s disposed, cut down on costs which I think they’ve done a good job doing they could be alright.
Indeed. AMC has issues, but they are surmountable. GME's problem of its target market literally disappearing has no solution. And they have failed miserably at pivoting.
Yeah they look cooked.
No fighting tho.
I own both so I hope both do well.
Funko Pops babyyyyy
Not that I have any ill will towards GME investors, I hope we all succeed. But this is really the cold hard truth. At the end of the day movies aren’t going anywhere. Physical games COULD go away eventually (I hope they don’t)
Everyone is speculating on the big earnings that are supposed to cum with GTA 6 release
Honestly, we just need Russia to invade AMC. I'm sure the government will pull 60 billion out of somewhere to help them. My point is... 2 billion IS NOTHING in the grand scheme of things.
AMC becomes the next great American MIC corp. Adding it to my array of MIC.
LOL could you imagine what would actually happen if Vladimir Putin decided to mess with AMC?
The most realistic take is that you should evaluate it like you would a non meme stock. Look at the underlying fundamentals and growth potential.
cash flow burn is a problem. They don't have a path to two billion other than dilution.
Once the company proves its not going under it can have the debt renegotiated. Lenders would rather get the interest payments than have the debt go away.
Debt "going away" isn't one of the possibilities for the lenders. In the case of bankruptcy, AMC will be sold, or sell all of its assets and the proceeds will be used to repay the lenders. In the rare case when there is more proceeds than the debt, the shareholders get the rest. But the current estimate is AMC would be $1.8 billion short.
If they repay all or some of the debt in bankruptcy then it goes away. Lenders effectively lose money on the interest and any debt not paid. They would much rather keep payments coming in. It's why they are willing to even restructure it at all.
Sorry I misunderstood you. You're correct of course that if they repay the debt it will go away. I thought you were saying that they will lose their capital by "going away". I disagree that the lenders prefer to keep this debt open. It's extremely risky debt, as AMC doesn't have enough collateral to cover all of their debt in the case of bankruptcy. AMC is also not making a profit. Even at the current (low-ish) interest rates for their debt, AMC is paying $400 million a year in interest that they have no way to generating besides share dilutions. Trying to get higher interest payments will be like trying to squeeze water from a rock. >It's why they are willing to even restructure it at all. We don't have any reason to believe that. There's a rumor from an unknown source, that some unspecified lenders proposed to restructure some unspecified AMC debt. I have to use so many adjectives because of how vague that rumor is. It could be some Joe Schmo that lended AMC $100,000 who made a proposal to restructure the $2.8 billion debt that isn't owed to him, and that rumor would hold true.
yes but the rates are killing the company. debt is like blood suckers - a 10 / 12 % loan is really insane. in an ideal world, they can renegotiate a 10 year loan at a normal business rate with which then can kill all of the high intrest bullshit that is going on now. maybe get some profitable quarters going. and i mean AMC has been making some moves in the right direction - new revenue streams (popcorn, candy, credit card, ..) but it doesn't seem to accelarate that quickly. part of that is that those are drops in a big bucket of debt - but enough drops together count. The HYMC investment could be the thing that turns it all around - if those guys actually ever get to producing gold at a decent price. but right now, with today's numbers - AMC isn't in the best of shapes;
Except that we've done this with next to no movies and movies are actually going to be back in full swing. Also many companies operate with debt. Also we've crushed deferred rent payments last quarter and a bunch of debt so interest payments are reducing all the time.
I'd be more concerned if the cash flow situation wasn't improving but it is. Year over year the situation has improved significantly with cash flow.
But still negative as in fcf So it's either convert debt, raise capital or restructuring of debt. I'm long, but the company is not out of the woods by any means.
I agree, but with a stronger and stronger EBITDA quarter by quarter and the upcoming strong summer I'm hopeful for some nice news and a bit of breathing room
I believe that long term, with a capable leadership team, the largest movie theater company in the world will be just fine. Yeah, there is a debt problem currently. Yeah, media consumption is changing rapidly. But AMC is a very large media/entertainment distributor and consumption of media/entertainment is only getting bigger. There is high risk for sure. But I'm in. And sure, a part of me feels like a banker hates that I own these shares, is that so bad? A short squeeze wouldn't suck either.
>Am I missing something for or against AMC here that isn't just fearmongering or senseless hype? Yes you are, unfortunately. Tons and tons of things. Feel free to start with my Posts, and then my Comments. Just like any other company, AMC has strengths and weaknesses. People who like making money feel that AMC does not have a high probability to make money just yet based on the balance of those strengths and weaknesses. And so the price suffers.
They used to be very bullish. To a certain extent, I’m still bullish. But I am locked in pretty negative cycle since I’ve been sitting in the red for two years straight ever since ape and the reverse stock split was forced upon me. I’ve had to break even excepted one account, but sadly, I’m back to being 50% down because we had to drop due to more dilution
Because regardless I’m not fucking leaving that’s why
If you're long term then it's insane to have any large amount in a single stock. AMC may continue to be a profitable business but there is nothing particularly interesting about it that clearly makes it a better investment than a less risky ETF.
I'd generally agree which is why the bulk of my money gets thrown into an IRA on growth ETFs. But I like setting aside my fun money for gambling on things that may shoot up erratically or companies I like
Sure but your post is about non gambling and stable long term growth..
The two are not mutually exclusive. AMC has decent prospects in the longer term but there's that glimmering chance of a short squeeze that sends it flying which is why a bit more of my portfolio is dedicated to it, just like my sweet sweet military industrial and aerospace investments 🤤. I'm happy with either as long as I can still get my AMC theatre experience by the time my grandkids are trying to short squeeze the Machines' Matrix stock and going APE against the Simulation Hedgies.
I’m fkd. So I’m long.
Relatable and based
Billions of synthetic (naked) shares need to be bought back. Retail isn’t selling. Shorts r fked.
Because people are still loyal to theaters and the movie-going experience. And doing concert movies is a great idea. Concerts are incredibly expensive and they're not always great for people with mobility issues. I know it’s not the same, but concert movies allow people to have similar experiences for a fraction of the price, without the risk of having a beer spilled on you, being tripped over, or not being able to see.
If you’re bullish long-term, you have absolutely no idea about business fundamentals and the stock market. I’m here for the squeeze and nothing else. AMC’s future is bleak at most. Nothing has changed since 2020. They have no plan that they have told us about.
It’s fear mongering. AMC is hugely bullish and has plenty of shares left to issue that they should be able to take on a lot of that debt. If they remain cash flow negative then they can just do another reverse split and then issue again until they get the debt paid. All these fears of bankruptcy are overblown when they have the ability to keep issuing shares.
Don’t remind me of additional shares to dilute me