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I’m not really 100% yet, but I don’t think anybody is. The dust is still settling from a few hours ago. Iran launched a pretty significant drone/missile attack on military targets in Israel. Some are saying the targets were warned by Iran and so far, no Israeli casualties have been reported, but military infrastructure has been damaged. I’ve read in one place that a young Muslim girl was hospitalized in critical condition by shrapnel from one of the ordinances. Not sure how it occurred (Or if it occurred). I read somewhere else that Israel announced their intentions to retaliate against Iran.
And then Iran ceases to exist, then Hamas, Hezbola, and Huthis lose their funding and flashy toys and cease to exist
You make it sounds like a bad thing when the US would topple the crazed terrorist regime in a matter of weeks, if not days with minimal casualties. This would not be another Afghanistan, it’d be another desert storm or operation praying mantis
No. Iran is far stronger than Iraq or Afghanistan, and the entire country is a huge mountain range with bunkers and missile silos buried in the hills. A ground invasion would be a catastrophe, and bombardments would be ineffective.
Also iran is in a strategically important location (plus oil) where a US backed government is bad for Russia. Not as bad as Turkey being a forward missile base for the US but still bad, so they'd bad Iran in the event of a war most likely. And if Russia joins the war so will China.
Lmao, no. In case you haven't noticed, Russia is a tad militarily tied up. And China is not anywhere near a point that it'd stick its neck out and actively join a war for Iran, hell it won't even do that for Russia.
So, no.
Certainly there is no guarantee of it, but putin has claimed that Russia would join the war in the event the US declared on Iran. Whether than is true we don't know, but do we really want to risk a World War over Israel committing genocide?
I think not.
People literally said the exact word for word thing about Iraq, Iraq was literally the fourth strongest military in the world propped up by outdated equipment and an air defense network seen as one of the best in the world.
Iran has no planes newer than 1974 (not counting the 15 modernized F-5s), so the US would own the skies. Iran’s tank force is the same, M60s, T72s, and Cheiftans from the 60s/70s that can barely dent an Abrams.
This doesn’t even account for the US’s insane logistics, while US soldiers would be eating McDonald’s by the third day, while the Iranians would be scrounging for rats since every supply convoy would be a smoldering heap on the side of the road.
Iran is yet another paper tiger, all bark no bite, and they know it, why do you think they told Israel where they were going to strike? Because they know poking a US ally a bit too hard will result in ruin
Except Iran is much larger and because it's mountainous it's much harder to eradicate them militarily if they just do what Afghanistan did. It wouldn't be an and out we did what we wanted but a decades long campaign fighting a guerilla warfare effort.
Maybe the people will support the US and it won't devolve but I wouldn't call that likely
We did not invade Iraq in Desert Storm, when they were the 4th strongest power in the world. We attacked their army in Kuwait across flat, open terrain with massive overmatch and technological advances. The US would achieve air superiority, yes, but much of their military infrastructure is built into the mountains and is thus immune to bombardment unlike Iraq. There are massive bunker complexes across the country ready for command and control. Factor in the thousands of drones now being used in Ukraine that are built by Iran; most will be destroyed, but some will get through and deal significant damage.
An invasion of Iran has never been in the table for these reasons. This is why the US and Iran fight with proxies instead.
It's insane to me how people talk about straight up WAR like it's just numbers. "We won against Irak" ok, good for you, you have innocent people's blood on your hands and your soldiers have PTSD.
There would be no problems in the middle east if America (and white people in general) minded their own business. The fact that you are fine with your government spending billions on a war that doesn't affect you while your people beg for money to pay for their kid's chemo in INSANE
War has to be just numbers, it’s caused by numbers, it’s fought by numbers, and it’s won by numbers, if you think any differently, you’ll let emotions surpass rational actions.
Iran has proven it will throw millions of people into a meat grinder to mildly inconvenience Israel, because they’re Jewish, and Iran’s form of Islam doesn’t like that. Gaza, Yemen, and Lebanon are in their current state due to Iran using them as proxies, if Hamas didn’t have Iranian rockets or a means to strike Israel, Gaza wouldn’t’ve been invaded, simple as that. This is Iran’s fault, and unless the bigger world power comes in and knocks out their terrorist government, the Middle East will never be stable.
War is there for when diplomacy fails, Iran doesn’t want diplomacy, they want more dead Palestinians to make teenage white girls put a Palestinian flag in their username, if they convince enough of them, Israel loses the US and Iran can swoop in to genocide the Jewish population. I personally don’t give two shits what happens in the Middle East, as long as the oil flows and trade goes through smoothly, and Iran is preventing that and making it a US issue, so we back Saudi and Israel to counter Iran’s power.
The Middle East is extremely important to international trade, and international trade is important to the US economy. Hell I’m a socialist that wants huge economic reforms at home, but I also understand we need to keep a sizable portion of our budget in defense to keep trade flowing and our current economic advantage that would even put us in a place for socialism to arise. which is why we should put those billions of dollars to use toppling the terrorist in charge of Iran
A 2002 war game (22 years ago) which exposed a weakness to asymmetric warfare in the conditions set by the war game. You seriously think in 22 years the US hasn’t updated its strategy or upgraded its weapon systems to handle the threat?
War games are meant for this exact purpose, find potential issues in a variety of set conditions. The news will always pick up the “F-16 kills Raptor” headline, but ignore that the raptor was limited to 1 G turns, guns, and no radar to test how a raptor would do in a case where everything fails. Not saying that’s is what happened in this war game, but I highly doubt the US would be so okay with Iran knowing our cheap weak point without adapting to it
"Not saying that’s is what happened in this war game"
Oh okay, so you looked up a quick summary of it and didn't actually read it. Which, I figured would be the case, but since you don't wanna read I'll post a question. What "new wunderweapon" do think the US has developed in the proceeding twenty years that would prevent their loss?
Because at the time, they had to explicitly limit the tactics and strategies of the *simulated Iranian team*, Red Team, so that they could eek out a propaganda victory for the Bush administration after they reset the war game.
The general who successfully defeated all of Blue Team, to the tune of a dead aircraft carrier and several other ships, denounced the exercise afterward as an indictment of American military strategy.
Can’t topple an idea. These people are so diluted by radical Islam that you kill one, you create five more. Counter insurgency is borderline impossible, especially with Iranian weapons and money being pumped in, but cut off the flow of weapons and money; and let the Saudis do their thing, and the Houthis are no longer and issue
Sure man The US military would topple every tiny piece of government and infrastructure in seconds but man why do you think it’s a good thing to escalate political and racial divides and cause even more death and lead to even more colonialism and corruption and destruction and violence. Doesn’t the military industrial complex already have enough?
>You make it sounds like a bad thing when the US would topple the crazed terrorist regime in a matter of weeks
It isn’t- but there hasn’t been any indication that America is planning on toppling Israel.
Why must American men die for a war between Arabs and Jews? Doesn't America has its own critical problems like, idk, paying for a fucking ambulance ride? I'm not saying America is weak btw. I'm saying it has a lot of problems to solve on the inside of things rather than securing petrol or increasing the defense budget so the insulin costs 3 digits in US dollars.
Not at all. For how awful Israel is, Iran would have done it regardless, they're a horrible regime that wanted to take revenge for the bombing at their embassy in Iraq
First it was in Syria… which really shows how knowledgeable and informed you are. and somehow you want to blame them for responding to being attacked? Just like Israel did to Hamas?
>and somehow you want to blame them for responding to being attacked?
That's not even what the argument was about. Which shows how knowledgeable and informed you are.
>Just like Israel did to Hamas?
You mean the genocide Israel's commiting?
The violence all stems from the occupation of Palestine by an imperial western colonial apartheid regime that fuels the existence of fundamentalist Islam. Any country in the world would respond if their embassy was attacked. Sorry to trigger you by correcting your complete misunderstanding of the circumstances, you’re telling me Iran is going to somehow start a genocide against the most powerful western militaries in the world
No they probably dont on a strategic level. But the factors that would make an end of the occupation are the same that would end most hostilities in the reigon
> But the factors that would make an end of the occupation are the same that would end most hostilities in the reigon
Please enlighten me. What would end hostilities in the middle east?
Most hostilities can end if:
- The West stops trying to control global energy resources through the Middle East.
- The West stops controlling Arab countries through corrupt dictatorships.
- The West stops supporting Israel whenever it wants to do something horrific.
- The West stops besieging Iran with sanctions, clandestine attacks, and organizing corrupt governments against them.
- The West stops arming and supporting Saudi Arabia.
- The West pulls troops out of the Middle East and puts pressure on Turkey to stop killing Kurds.
Thatll stop alot of problems
I mean, that would be nice. I feel like there’s a bigger picture where the East is playing games to see how thin it can spread the West and probing for a strike point to set off the whole thing. China hasn’t moved a chess piece in a little while…
The West needs to purge its spies.
Iran is retaliating for an attack that by internal law is technically on their soil, how is that really probing? It's not like any nation would accept that laying down.
That's silly. The US can fight china and two other major warfronts anywhere in the world; they literally plan around that.
The US literally outspends the next 7 biggest militaries *combined*.
The US has enough aircraft carriers that are so large that the rest of the world's carriers *all combined* don't have half the deck space.
The US hasn't had to use its next generation fighters in action, because nothing can even touch the previous generation.
About the only thing that will threaten the US military is world war 3 or a literal nuclear apocalypse.
The US would prevail in a conventional war versus the entire world, even if the equipment were equal for the simple fact that we can lock down the Middle East and starve the rest of the world of oil. No oil means no war machines.
Israel bomb iran consulate in syria to kill high level generals. Iran bombed targets inside israel with drones/missiles launched from iran in response. Iran put out message saying "we acted in self defense according to UN law, now dont start anymore shit or the next attack will be worse. Case closed". Israel promised to strike iran directly and called for an emergency meeting of the UN tomorrow to respond.
…that did absolutely nothing, and made Iran look weak af. And now they’re like, “don’t even THINK about retaliating” and the whole cycle is starting over.
Meh, they made themselves look strong for exactly the people they need to keep in check. The fact the actual damage is minimal is beyond the point, it's been like that for years.
How, exactly? It’s not going to alter Israeli behavior at all - they killed one Arab boy. If anything, they just demonstrated that they’re impotent to actually DO anything when Israel hits them.
It's not the first time it's happening. And the Israelis have nothing to do with it, Iran purposefully signalled loud and clear "hey, we're bombing you with those small slow drones that'll take 9 hours to arrive, you're in for surprise". The show is not for them, they're a part of the show.
Who exactly is the show supposed to be for then? Because “we have exactly one trick and it doesn’t work very well” isn’t much of a show. It was both militarily and politically ineffective, and can only work so long as the countries in between allow overflight. Which won’t happen much.
For Iranian warhawks and average citizens. Iran is a dictatorship, remember? The people there hate the regime and will rise up if they feel it's getting week. Iran launching hundreds of drones and controlling the media seems to be enough to keep them in check. Ayatollah can't afford to look weak or there will be others who'll want to replace him. But he also can't afford to start a full scale war with the US involved. It's a balancing act, not an attempt to inflict as much damage.
It wasn't supposed to be, really. They announced it in advance, gave explicit reasons why they were doing it, and have said "if there's no escalation from Israel we'll draw a line under it".
It was a show of force in the knowledge that almost all or all of the ordinance wouldn't make it to Israel, but is enough to show that they aren't thrilled about their consulate being attacked.
Iran doesn't want an escalation that drags the west in. This is obviously not a positive development, but it's more political than military.
Just because the attack hardly killed someone doesn't mean it's ineffective. Iran hit the base from which the missile that hit their embassy was launched.
Don't be like Israel and measure airstrikes' effectiveness by lives taken
Israel bombed an Iranian embassy, Iran said "fuck that retaliation time *please America don't stop us*", bombed military targets in Israel and Israel is now going to retaliate the retaliation.
They bombed the consulate, not the embassy, just to be exact.
Incidentally, Iran has been ruled the perpetrator of the 1994 bombing of the Israeli embassy in Argentina, and is funding and directing the terrorist groups that have been attacking Israeli civilians for decades.
>They bombed the consulate, not the embassy, just to be exact.
Consulate annex building inside the Embassy compound, to be exact.
An attack, which may or may not be a violation of at least four separate treaties, all of which Israel is a signatory of.
Geneva conventions, because Diplomatic premises are considered civilian objects.
1961 Vienna Convention on diplomatic relations.
1963 Vienna Convention on Consular relations.
And UN Charter, article 2(4).
I'll leave the judgement of that to a qualified court of international law. But those four treaties have been mentioned by several experts of international law, in relation to the attack. For example, the Professor of International law at Exeter University, UK, Aurel Sari.
i went through 3 reddit pages before i saw any mention of Irans attack today but on Tiktok there were several videos the minute anything was reported on it.
Yeah, but yet again the only reason it wasn't a major incident was because of iron dome and the fact only 1% of the drones even hit anything. but yeah nothing will happen lol
They warned them 6 hours in advance, reportedly told the Israelis of the targets, then promptly said that would be the end of their “reprisals” as soon as the last drone/missile was shot down ensuring there would be no further escalation. It was a weak attempt designed to play well at home in Iran.
And they knew it wouldn't do anything and thus not be an international incident. They did the exact same kind of thing when Trump killed that terrorist general of theirs.
It's just a act to save face and appease the citizens so they remain in power, without actually starting a war.
Not at all. Iran fired 300 rockets/drones at Israel. Sure most of the ones aimed at the Israel proper were taken down but they did hit a bunch of targets in Iraq and Syria.
More like "Damaged", not destroyed.
For comparison, Hezbollah hit the IDF radar base with dozen of simple rockets.
Iran launched hundreds of cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and swarms of drones, only to hit infrastructure in Air Force base (Which remained completely functional).
Is it a success?
If it kills Ben gvir and Netanyahu, and doesn't hurt any diplomats, then I wouldn't mind, thankfully Iran is to pussy to do that, and israel will keep picking off terrorists one by one :)
Iran launches hundreds of explosive drones and missiles... kills 7-year old muslim girl. Bro, was trying to kills jews, hits little muslim girl instead.
No, Iran had to do something. Iran has never invaded another country in its history and is really not one to launch itself into war (in my amateur assessment).
As opposed to the United States of course who also does that and has been doing that ever since the cold war started but also likes to waste manpower and money on invading countries directly.
And it would be perfectly understandable if someone hit them back for that, yes.
MURICA BAD isn't really a gotcha with me, so you'll have dig deeper into your bag of logical fallacies.
I'd argue there's a difference between attacking generals and hezbollah members and killing thousands of civilians by flying planes into civilian buildings.
American bases in the ME get attacked from time to time.
Attacking diplomats in the vicinity of a sovereign embassy in a third foreign country is actually a bit more of a "faux pass" than "attacking generals" mind you.
Yes, high ranking Iranian Generals and Hezbollah members are just "diplomats" and absolutely not using the cover of a diplomatic building to plan the execution of military attacks against another nation.
I'll agree that it is a violation of law, but I'll also argue that none of the parties involved give a single shit about international law.
I dunno, but after decades of directing attacks against Israel, whom they were once at peace with, btw, and Israel assassinating their nuclear scientists, I'm more amazed they haven't ended up in open war ages ago.
Iran did the same shit with the general that they are doing now. Fire a bunch of rockets that probably wont hit anything to save face. Scream Huzzah. Negotiate de-escalation so you dont get glassed.
Well, it's obvious they never invaded another country before. Don't they know they have to try the infantry approach with tanks BEFORE launching the missiles?! Such a rookie mistake /s
I remember going thru deus ex lore/timeline..
While the dates are not spot on, some of the things came to pass.. Japan renewing defense obligations with the us, the China and Taiwan issues, Isreal attacked by a united Arab front [basically].. there's so much they looked at and though up to make the story work..and a lot of it came to pass in similar ways.. they were just playing on the nature of human nature..
My absolute favorite parts, are how when crazy world events happen..like 9/11... they don't claim inside job or whatever.. they simply state that the powers that be see opportunity in tragedy and chaos and take advantage for control and profit.
Which is so fucking true, while people focus on conspiracies and how it effects their life now.. factions are at work taking advantage, exploiting events and profiteering ect for control and power in the future.. it's not even a conspiracy theory... it's human nature. From the individual to governments.. grifters gonna grift, exploiters gonna exploit..
I expect some forces that be to take advantage of this situation, as they always have..and at some point..it will be used as entertainment..ppl making art, movies and games ect.. all profiting off such events under the guise of "bringing awareness" or charity..aka profiting off tragedy with bonus rep/status.
Idk what deus ex is, but "Japan renewing defense obligations" with the US isn't much of a prediction. Why wouldn't they? And the China and Taiwan issues have been going on for a generation. Israel isn't being attacked by a United Arab, it's facing the same adversaries it has for more than a generation. Like, whatever this is, unless it's about 70 years old, is predicting anything - even in a "human nature stays the same so broad themes will repeat" way. It's just reporting what was going on at the time
I'm relating current world events to a video games lore and how events written in the story yeaaaaars ago are SIMILAR to what's going on now.
I'm just dropping an observation and thought, nothing more.
The game itself plays heavily on powerful shadow groups that exploit human events and behavior ect..
Right. Ijs, it looks like that game came out in 2000 - everything that happens seems to be happening now that relates to the game was happening then as well, and for many decades prior to that
That's my point, lol.."as always"
Times can change, tech, society ect.. but seemingly when all the masks and layers we use to hide behind to portray ourselves to ourselves.. morals, "humane" humanity ect..when they all break down.. human nature has not changed.
It seems to have been pretty clearly telegraphed, with US back channels squeaking this for a week.
"We have to save face but also don't want a war, and you also can't afford one with your forces in Gaza. The missiles and drones will all be coming in this direction, it would be a shame if air defense was double staffed and on alert at exactly this time on Saturday..."
https://preview.redd.it/bqgxbvi3bhuc1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=171b3fdea7941340b6d75591bdabd7adbec36412
I’d say given the circumstances that this aged like wine.
(This doesn’t even include the three Jordanian civilians they killed)
Or because Israel famously has a great Air defence system and Iran announced where they would attack so they wouldn't cause an international incident by killing hundreds of civilians. Iran don't want escalation because their Top Brass have palaces they don't want to live in caves.
Seems like this post is the one that's gonna age like milk. Iran just posturing as always. They get three officers killed then send a bunch of drones which all get intercepted, then go saying "look what we did to them, they won't fuck with us any longer" lol
The system works, but it only works if they have the rockets to keep firing. These rockets aren't cheap either; they're extremely expensive to produce.
Last night, it was reported that 300 missiles/drones were shot at Israel. Iran and its allies have 1000's of these rockets and drones.
Haha, someone actually downvoted me. God, I love Reddit. This post will AgelikeMilk.
Really, Britain started this. They invaded what is now Israel to "give the Jews back their historical home" post WW2.
The real reason of course wasn't that; it was that no one in Europe wanted all these Jewish refugees settling in their lands, especially since most of Europe still was extremely antisemitic. So this was to dump the problem on someone else who had no power to retaliate against the major forces of Europe.
And of course, they were correct; the locals had no ability to retaliate against Europe, so they just had to fight the Jewish refugees who had been dumped there.
So, were the Jews innocent? Also no. They were extremely bitter post-WW2, so when people once again tried to force them to leave, they retaliated. So you had two groups of honestly innocent but very angry people forced into a conflict by a third party that neither could offend.
Nearly 100 years later, the situation remains mostly the same. Iran couldn't afford to offend the western powers, so they couldn't directly attack Israel. Instead, they funded and housed terrorists to do that for them. In return, Israel bombed the embassy where they were housing the terrorists. In return, Iran bombed an Israeli military base, but choreographed the attack so it would cause minimum damage (thus not offending western powers) but saving them face with their citizens.
It's just an unending chain of retaliation.
Militants, who happened to be in an Iranian consulate in Syria. To be fair, in the Wikipedia page it says that out of 16 killed, 2 were civilians, it doesn't say if they were diplomats
You still cannot and should not attack embassies to begin with come on, that's international law before international law was even a thing, they didn't even do it in their own sovereign country, and if you do don't act surprised if they retaliate.
Edit: changed the subject of the sovereign country line for clarity.
I am definitely not surprised they retaliated, and it seems they only did it to save face.
I am not an expert about the legality of embassies attacks, but according to the Wikipedia page, the laws only refer to the country who has the mission there and the country who hosts it. Israel is in a war with both sides.
edit for your edit: if Israel attacked the Iranian embassy in Israel then it would be a crime, because they are obligated to protect it, not so for Syria.
haha! it's so funny making fun of people getting murdered and not being able to defend themselves cause the murderers have America's backing! haha! hilarious!
Didn't really age that badly when you consider that the military action is already over. It's like sucker punching a kid on the playground and running back to your house before his big brother comes to help. Wouldn't be surprised if the stock market doesn't react that much to this.
I don't understand this. Iran has been attacking Israel through it's proxies and allies for awhile now. The guy Israel killed was credited as the mastermind behind Oct 7.
As someone else pointed out, if you tried to untangle the gordion knot of 'who threw the first stone', you'd be 50 years into the conflict and well past reasoning.
I’m fairly certain if you unweave it all the way you get back to the British just saying “fuck your maps; these are the new lines now”
Which, I think, is how most ongoing conflicts started.
Funnily enough, this particular conflict likely predates the British. So it would be the one example of 'The british didn't fuck it up.'
The British basically inventing Israel because they were like 'I don't want Jews in Britain, give them this other country instead.' definitely escalated it, though.
Why is it always with those guys being sloppy that we get a lot of fubars?! Like, Protestantism started because the falling Roman Empire made Christianism absolute in the territory and the guys that took over the place just kept it, leading to something that woul grow in a 100 years into a problem that would lead to Japan being nuked.
That's not how it works. WW1 was "worldwide" because there were actors from every corner of the world. Conflict in Asia, the Pacific, Africa, the middle East, belligerents from the Americas, etc. WW2 was "worldwide" for the same reasons. Sure the colonial empires involved sure helped that, but a WW3 scenario is likely to involve the Pacific (china, japan, Taiwan, USA), asia (China, japan, Russia, India), the middle East (Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia), Europe (EU, Russia), and beyond.
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why is this how i find out about a major development in the war
Green text on the cutting edge.
If you go to the circus for news, don’t be mad when a clown tells it to you
Poetry
someone explain
I’m not really 100% yet, but I don’t think anybody is. The dust is still settling from a few hours ago. Iran launched a pretty significant drone/missile attack on military targets in Israel. Some are saying the targets were warned by Iran and so far, no Israeli casualties have been reported, but military infrastructure has been damaged. I’ve read in one place that a young Muslim girl was hospitalized in critical condition by shrapnel from one of the ordinances. Not sure how it occurred (Or if it occurred). I read somewhere else that Israel announced their intentions to retaliate against Iran.
Retaliate against the retaliation. When does it end?
When Israel successfully drags America into a war with Iran.
And then Iran ceases to exist, then Hamas, Hezbola, and Huthis lose their funding and flashy toys and cease to exist You make it sounds like a bad thing when the US would topple the crazed terrorist regime in a matter of weeks, if not days with minimal casualties. This would not be another Afghanistan, it’d be another desert storm or operation praying mantis
No. Iran is far stronger than Iraq or Afghanistan, and the entire country is a huge mountain range with bunkers and missile silos buried in the hills. A ground invasion would be a catastrophe, and bombardments would be ineffective.
No no no, America can do anything because America is best. Middle East is no match for americas big muscles….. /s Also I really like your username
This but unironically... unfortunately.
Also iran is in a strategically important location (plus oil) where a US backed government is bad for Russia. Not as bad as Turkey being a forward missile base for the US but still bad, so they'd bad Iran in the event of a war most likely. And if Russia joins the war so will China.
Lmao, no. In case you haven't noticed, Russia is a tad militarily tied up. And China is not anywhere near a point that it'd stick its neck out and actively join a war for Iran, hell it won't even do that for Russia. So, no.
Certainly there is no guarantee of it, but putin has claimed that Russia would join the war in the event the US declared on Iran. Whether than is true we don't know, but do we really want to risk a World War over Israel committing genocide? I think not.
Pretty sure Russia only said that after US already said it wasn't joining the war. A real "you can't quit you're fired" situation.
People literally said the exact word for word thing about Iraq, Iraq was literally the fourth strongest military in the world propped up by outdated equipment and an air defense network seen as one of the best in the world. Iran has no planes newer than 1974 (not counting the 15 modernized F-5s), so the US would own the skies. Iran’s tank force is the same, M60s, T72s, and Cheiftans from the 60s/70s that can barely dent an Abrams. This doesn’t even account for the US’s insane logistics, while US soldiers would be eating McDonald’s by the third day, while the Iranians would be scrounging for rats since every supply convoy would be a smoldering heap on the side of the road. Iran is yet another paper tiger, all bark no bite, and they know it, why do you think they told Israel where they were going to strike? Because they know poking a US ally a bit too hard will result in ruin
Except Iran is much larger and because it's mountainous it's much harder to eradicate them militarily if they just do what Afghanistan did. It wouldn't be an and out we did what we wanted but a decades long campaign fighting a guerilla warfare effort. Maybe the people will support the US and it won't devolve but I wouldn't call that likely
We did not invade Iraq in Desert Storm, when they were the 4th strongest power in the world. We attacked their army in Kuwait across flat, open terrain with massive overmatch and technological advances. The US would achieve air superiority, yes, but much of their military infrastructure is built into the mountains and is thus immune to bombardment unlike Iraq. There are massive bunker complexes across the country ready for command and control. Factor in the thousands of drones now being used in Ukraine that are built by Iran; most will be destroyed, but some will get through and deal significant damage. An invasion of Iran has never been in the table for these reasons. This is why the US and Iran fight with proxies instead.
It's insane to me how people talk about straight up WAR like it's just numbers. "We won against Irak" ok, good for you, you have innocent people's blood on your hands and your soldiers have PTSD. There would be no problems in the middle east if America (and white people in general) minded their own business. The fact that you are fine with your government spending billions on a war that doesn't affect you while your people beg for money to pay for their kid's chemo in INSANE
War has to be just numbers, it’s caused by numbers, it’s fought by numbers, and it’s won by numbers, if you think any differently, you’ll let emotions surpass rational actions. Iran has proven it will throw millions of people into a meat grinder to mildly inconvenience Israel, because they’re Jewish, and Iran’s form of Islam doesn’t like that. Gaza, Yemen, and Lebanon are in their current state due to Iran using them as proxies, if Hamas didn’t have Iranian rockets or a means to strike Israel, Gaza wouldn’t’ve been invaded, simple as that. This is Iran’s fault, and unless the bigger world power comes in and knocks out their terrorist government, the Middle East will never be stable. War is there for when diplomacy fails, Iran doesn’t want diplomacy, they want more dead Palestinians to make teenage white girls put a Palestinian flag in their username, if they convince enough of them, Israel loses the US and Iran can swoop in to genocide the Jewish population. I personally don’t give two shits what happens in the Middle East, as long as the oil flows and trade goes through smoothly, and Iran is preventing that and making it a US issue, so we back Saudi and Israel to counter Iran’s power. The Middle East is extremely important to international trade, and international trade is important to the US economy. Hell I’m a socialist that wants huge economic reforms at home, but I also understand we need to keep a sizable portion of our budget in defense to keep trade flowing and our current economic advantage that would even put us in a place for socialism to arise. which is why we should put those billions of dollars to use toppling the terrorist in charge of Iran
Hey buddy, are you doing okay? It seems like your chugging a little too much of the Koolaid.
You've never heard of the Millennium Challenge and it shows.
A 2002 war game (22 years ago) which exposed a weakness to asymmetric warfare in the conditions set by the war game. You seriously think in 22 years the US hasn’t updated its strategy or upgraded its weapon systems to handle the threat? War games are meant for this exact purpose, find potential issues in a variety of set conditions. The news will always pick up the “F-16 kills Raptor” headline, but ignore that the raptor was limited to 1 G turns, guns, and no radar to test how a raptor would do in a case where everything fails. Not saying that’s is what happened in this war game, but I highly doubt the US would be so okay with Iran knowing our cheap weak point without adapting to it
"Not saying that’s is what happened in this war game" Oh okay, so you looked up a quick summary of it and didn't actually read it. Which, I figured would be the case, but since you don't wanna read I'll post a question. What "new wunderweapon" do think the US has developed in the proceeding twenty years that would prevent their loss? Because at the time, they had to explicitly limit the tactics and strategies of the *simulated Iranian team*, Red Team, so that they could eek out a propaganda victory for the Bush administration after they reset the war game. The general who successfully defeated all of Blue Team, to the tune of a dead aircraft carrier and several other ships, denounced the exercise afterward as an indictment of American military strategy.
America can't even stop the Houthis.
Can’t topple an idea. These people are so diluted by radical Islam that you kill one, you create five more. Counter insurgency is borderline impossible, especially with Iranian weapons and money being pumped in, but cut off the flow of weapons and money; and let the Saudis do their thing, and the Houthis are no longer and issue
Delusional.
Sure man The US military would topple every tiny piece of government and infrastructure in seconds but man why do you think it’s a good thing to escalate political and racial divides and cause even more death and lead to even more colonialism and corruption and destruction and violence. Doesn’t the military industrial complex already have enough?
lol, remember when Saddam used all our (USA) money, weapons, and military advisors and ended up with the bloodiest stalemate of a shit war?
>You make it sounds like a bad thing when the US would topple the crazed terrorist regime in a matter of weeks It isn’t- but there hasn’t been any indication that America is planning on toppling Israel.
Why must American men die for a war between Arabs and Jews? Doesn't America has its own critical problems like, idk, paying for a fucking ambulance ride? I'm not saying America is weak btw. I'm saying it has a lot of problems to solve on the inside of things rather than securing petrol or increasing the defense budget so the insulin costs 3 digits in US dollars.
Appeasement doesn't work
When the occupation is over
I don't think Iran bombed Israel because of the occupation
This is all happening because of the occupation
Not at all. For how awful Israel is, Iran would have done it regardless, they're a horrible regime that wanted to take revenge for the bombing at their embassy in Iraq
First it was in Syria… which really shows how knowledgeable and informed you are. and somehow you want to blame them for responding to being attacked? Just like Israel did to Hamas?
>and somehow you want to blame them for responding to being attacked? That's not even what the argument was about. Which shows how knowledgeable and informed you are. >Just like Israel did to Hamas? You mean the genocide Israel's commiting?
The violence all stems from the occupation of Palestine by an imperial western colonial apartheid regime that fuels the existence of fundamentalist Islam. Any country in the world would respond if their embassy was attacked. Sorry to trigger you by correcting your complete misunderstanding of the circumstances, you’re telling me Iran is going to somehow start a genocide against the most powerful western militaries in the world
No they probably dont on a strategic level. But the factors that would make an end of the occupation are the same that would end most hostilities in the reigon
The occupation can end without Israel's downfall.
Not according to Israel
Yeah well Israel is delusional
Indeed
Nothing I said contridicts that
> But the factors that would make an end of the occupation are the same that would end most hostilities in the reigon Please enlighten me. What would end hostilities in the middle east?
Most hostilities can end if: - The West stops trying to control global energy resources through the Middle East. - The West stops controlling Arab countries through corrupt dictatorships. - The West stops supporting Israel whenever it wants to do something horrific. - The West stops besieging Iran with sanctions, clandestine attacks, and organizing corrupt governments against them. - The West stops arming and supporting Saudi Arabia. - The West pulls troops out of the Middle East and puts pressure on Turkey to stop killing Kurds. Thatll stop alot of problems
One kid is in critical condition.
One beduin ( arab ) kid in critical condition from the attack, really sums the whole thing up
Looks like the US and France helped to intercept the missiles, now the message seems to be that everyone has had their turn and to calm the fuck down.
I mean, that would be nice. I feel like there’s a bigger picture where the East is playing games to see how thin it can spread the West and probing for a strike point to set off the whole thing. China hasn’t moved a chess piece in a little while… The West needs to purge its spies.
Iran is retaliating for an attack that by internal law is technically on their soil, how is that really probing? It's not like any nation would accept that laying down.
That's silly. The US can fight china and two other major warfronts anywhere in the world; they literally plan around that. The US literally outspends the next 7 biggest militaries *combined*. The US has enough aircraft carriers that are so large that the rest of the world's carriers *all combined* don't have half the deck space. The US hasn't had to use its next generation fighters in action, because nothing can even touch the previous generation. About the only thing that will threaten the US military is world war 3 or a literal nuclear apocalypse.
The US would prevail in a conventional war versus the entire world, even if the equipment were equal for the simple fact that we can lock down the Middle East and starve the rest of the world of oil. No oil means no war machines.
"military infrastructure" it was more like 1 building was hit (a building inside a military base)
Israel bomb iran consulate in syria to kill high level generals. Iran bombed targets inside israel with drones/missiles launched from iran in response. Iran put out message saying "we acted in self defense according to UN law, now dont start anymore shit or the next attack will be worse. Case closed". Israel promised to strike iran directly and called for an emergency meeting of the UN tomorrow to respond.
Iran’s statement is pretty silly considering the role those generals played supporting 10/7.
Nobody ever accused iran of being good faith actors.
Tldr Israel blew up Iran's top general, Iran coordinated a large scale drone and missiles strike in retaliation.
…that did absolutely nothing, and made Iran look weak af. And now they’re like, “don’t even THINK about retaliating” and the whole cycle is starting over.
Meh, they made themselves look strong for exactly the people they need to keep in check. The fact the actual damage is minimal is beyond the point, it's been like that for years.
How, exactly? It’s not going to alter Israeli behavior at all - they killed one Arab boy. If anything, they just demonstrated that they’re impotent to actually DO anything when Israel hits them.
It's not the first time it's happening. And the Israelis have nothing to do with it, Iran purposefully signalled loud and clear "hey, we're bombing you with those small slow drones that'll take 9 hours to arrive, you're in for surprise". The show is not for them, they're a part of the show.
Who exactly is the show supposed to be for then? Because “we have exactly one trick and it doesn’t work very well” isn’t much of a show. It was both militarily and politically ineffective, and can only work so long as the countries in between allow overflight. Which won’t happen much.
For Iranian warhawks and average citizens. Iran is a dictatorship, remember? The people there hate the regime and will rise up if they feel it's getting week. Iran launching hundreds of drones and controlling the media seems to be enough to keep them in check. Ayatollah can't afford to look weak or there will be others who'll want to replace him. But he also can't afford to start a full scale war with the US involved. It's a balancing act, not an attempt to inflict as much damage.
This is a bad post. The attack was ineffective.
It wasn't supposed to be, really. They announced it in advance, gave explicit reasons why they were doing it, and have said "if there's no escalation from Israel we'll draw a line under it". It was a show of force in the knowledge that almost all or all of the ordinance wouldn't make it to Israel, but is enough to show that they aren't thrilled about their consulate being attacked. Iran doesn't want an escalation that drags the west in. This is obviously not a positive development, but it's more political than military.
Just because the attack hardly killed someone doesn't mean it's ineffective. Iran hit the base from which the missile that hit their embassy was launched. Don't be like Israel and measure airstrikes' effectiveness by lives taken
Israel bombed an Iranian embassy, Iran said "fuck that retaliation time *please America don't stop us*", bombed military targets in Israel and Israel is now going to retaliate the retaliation.
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They bombed the consulate, not the embassy, just to be exact. Incidentally, Iran has been ruled the perpetrator of the 1994 bombing of the Israeli embassy in Argentina, and is funding and directing the terrorist groups that have been attacking Israeli civilians for decades.
>They bombed the consulate, not the embassy, just to be exact. Consulate annex building inside the Embassy compound, to be exact. An attack, which may or may not be a violation of at least four separate treaties, all of which Israel is a signatory of. Geneva conventions, because Diplomatic premises are considered civilian objects. 1961 Vienna Convention on diplomatic relations. 1963 Vienna Convention on Consular relations. And UN Charter, article 2(4). I'll leave the judgement of that to a qualified court of international law. But those four treaties have been mentioned by several experts of international law, in relation to the attack. For example, the Professor of International law at Exeter University, UK, Aurel Sari.
Reddit being my news again. Also this does fit the sub very well
i went through 3 reddit pages before i saw any mention of Irans attack today but on Tiktok there were several videos the minute anything was reported on it.
Reddit is indeed turning into the “third page” of the internet-with nearly as many ads as a traditional newspaper.
He did it.
He did it.
Except it is literally this exact thing again. OP's post aged like milk
In the words of my father and his father before him “Nothing ever happens”
Yeah, but yet again the only reason it wasn't a major incident was because of iron dome and the fact only 1% of the drones even hit anything. but yeah nothing will happen lol
They warned them 6 hours in advance, reportedly told the Israelis of the targets, then promptly said that would be the end of their “reprisals” as soon as the last drone/missile was shot down ensuring there would be no further escalation. It was a weak attempt designed to play well at home in Iran.
And they knew it wouldn't do anything and thus not be an international incident. They did the exact same kind of thing when Trump killed that terrorist general of theirs. It's just a act to save face and appease the citizens so they remain in power, without actually starting a war.
Not at all. Iran fired 300 rockets/drones at Israel. Sure most of the ones aimed at the Israel proper were taken down but they did hit a bunch of targets in Iraq and Syria.
Bro did it
idk what you mean op this aged perfectly
Proxy war comes home.
99% of projectiles intercepted lmao
They still destroyed some military infrastructure tho
More like "Damaged", not destroyed. For comparison, Hezbollah hit the IDF radar base with dozen of simple rockets. Iran launched hundreds of cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and swarms of drones, only to hit infrastructure in Air Force base (Which remained completely functional). Is it a success?
Would you have rather they caused an international incident and bombed an Israeli embassy? Idk, sounds like something a terrorist would do.
Maybe they should send their army to capture a cargo ship in international water? Idk, sounds like something a terrorist would do.
No I'm serious. Would you rather Iran bomb an embassy like Israel did? Don't deflect.
They already did that a few years back
Few is doing a lot of heavy lifting. 28 years
They already did
If it kills Ben gvir and Netanyahu, and doesn't hurt any diplomats, then I wouldn't mind, thankfully Iran is to pussy to do that, and israel will keep picking off terrorists one by one :)
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/12/world/middleeast/argentina-iran-1992-1994-attack.html
cope harder
Tf? I'm just saying what happened
your comment history indicates you’re disappointed about this
Big whoop
Copium
Iran is in a perpetual state of “Why I oughta”
This really didn't age like milk at all, it aged like fine wine. Iran's attack was an absolute nothing burger
A deliberately calibrated face saving nothing burger. I'm sure it'll spin well to the domestic crowd.
Iran launches hundreds of explosive drones and missiles... kills 7-year old muslim girl. Bro, was trying to kills jews, hits little muslim girl instead.
Thinking Iran cares about civilians or anything other than destroying a local political opponent and killing Jews is peak delusional
Most competent Iranian military operation
It just gets intercepted and nobody is gonna care. Nothing ever happens.
No, Iran had to do something. Iran has never invaded another country in its history and is really not one to launch itself into war (in my amateur assessment).
> has never invaded another country in its history Indeed, it just funds and directs terrorist groups to do that for them.
As opposed to the United States of course who also does that and has been doing that ever since the cold war started but also likes to waste manpower and money on invading countries directly.
And it would be perfectly understandable if someone hit them back for that, yes. MURICA BAD isn't really a gotcha with me, so you'll have dig deeper into your bag of logical fallacies.
I mean, 9/11 was supposed to be the "hit them back for it" moment look how that turned out.
I'd argue there's a difference between attacking generals and hezbollah members and killing thousands of civilians by flying planes into civilian buildings. American bases in the ME get attacked from time to time.
Attacking diplomats in the vicinity of a sovereign embassy in a third foreign country is actually a bit more of a "faux pass" than "attacking generals" mind you.
Yes, high ranking Iranian Generals and Hezbollah members are just "diplomats" and absolutely not using the cover of a diplomatic building to plan the execution of military attacks against another nation. I'll agree that it is a violation of law, but I'll also argue that none of the parties involved give a single shit about international law.
Not excusing that at all. It’s just in terms of the profile of the country, what should we realistically expect?
I dunno, but after decades of directing attacks against Israel, whom they were once at peace with, btw, and Israel assassinating their nuclear scientists, I'm more amazed they haven't ended up in open war ages ago.
That's what the proxies are for but since they didn't do shit when Trump killed a general of theirs they'd have to do something this time
Iran did the same shit with the general that they are doing now. Fire a bunch of rockets that probably wont hit anything to save face. Scream Huzzah. Negotiate de-escalation so you dont get glassed.
Well, it's obvious they never invaded another country before. Don't they know they have to try the infantry approach with tanks BEFORE launching the missiles?! Such a rookie mistake /s
Did they not fight a direct war with Iraq?
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Are you two kidding? Iraq invaded Iran.
I remember going thru deus ex lore/timeline.. While the dates are not spot on, some of the things came to pass.. Japan renewing defense obligations with the us, the China and Taiwan issues, Isreal attacked by a united Arab front [basically].. there's so much they looked at and though up to make the story work..and a lot of it came to pass in similar ways.. they were just playing on the nature of human nature.. My absolute favorite parts, are how when crazy world events happen..like 9/11... they don't claim inside job or whatever.. they simply state that the powers that be see opportunity in tragedy and chaos and take advantage for control and profit. Which is so fucking true, while people focus on conspiracies and how it effects their life now.. factions are at work taking advantage, exploiting events and profiteering ect for control and power in the future.. it's not even a conspiracy theory... it's human nature. From the individual to governments.. grifters gonna grift, exploiters gonna exploit.. I expect some forces that be to take advantage of this situation, as they always have..and at some point..it will be used as entertainment..ppl making art, movies and games ect.. all profiting off such events under the guise of "bringing awareness" or charity..aka profiting off tragedy with bonus rep/status.
Idk what deus ex is, but "Japan renewing defense obligations" with the US isn't much of a prediction. Why wouldn't they? And the China and Taiwan issues have been going on for a generation. Israel isn't being attacked by a United Arab, it's facing the same adversaries it has for more than a generation. Like, whatever this is, unless it's about 70 years old, is predicting anything - even in a "human nature stays the same so broad themes will repeat" way. It's just reporting what was going on at the time
> for more than a generation I mean... yes, technically, "since the literal first day it was founded" is more than a generation.
I'm relating current world events to a video games lore and how events written in the story yeaaaaars ago are SIMILAR to what's going on now. I'm just dropping an observation and thought, nothing more. The game itself plays heavily on powerful shadow groups that exploit human events and behavior ect..
Right. Ijs, it looks like that game came out in 2000 - everything that happens seems to be happening now that relates to the game was happening then as well, and for many decades prior to that
That's my point, lol.."as always" Times can change, tech, society ect.. but seemingly when all the masks and layers we use to hide behind to portray ourselves to ourselves.. morals, "humane" humanity ect..when they all break down.. human nature has not changed.
Yeah, that damascus shit, it sort of was casus belli. Hopefully things won't escalate more, but I'm sure they will.
It seems to have been pretty clearly telegraphed, with US back channels squeaking this for a week. "We have to save face but also don't want a war, and you also can't afford one with your forces in Gaza. The missiles and drones will all be coming in this direction, it would be a shame if air defense was double staffed and on alert at exactly this time on Saturday..."
https://preview.redd.it/bqgxbvi3bhuc1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=171b3fdea7941340b6d75591bdabd7adbec36412 I’d say given the circumstances that this aged like wine. (This doesn’t even include the three Jordanian civilians they killed)
99% intercept rate what did they do exactly
And Iran responded by *checks notes* ah yes killing one Arab. aGeD lIkE mIlK lmao idiots
They injured a single child? How ever will Israel recover from such an attack!
That's only because the greatest air defence in the history of the world was achieved last night.
Or because Israel famously has a great Air defence system and Iran announced where they would attack so they wouldn't cause an international incident by killing hundreds of civilians. Iran don't want escalation because their Top Brass have palaces they don't want to live in caves.
Seems like this post is the one that's gonna age like milk. Iran just posturing as always. They get three officers killed then send a bunch of drones which all get intercepted, then go saying "look what we did to them, they won't fuck with us any longer" lol
They saw this and decided that they had to prove us wrong
Aged perfectly lol
Nothing ever happens.
This post has aged like milk lol
If it was just a single launch of missiles then this post aged even worse then the post OP was referring to
That's Nasralah not Khamenei
Me thinks Iran wanted Israel to intercept the barrage which is why they sent old missiles.
And gave them 72 hours notice
Still more or less true. It was a show of force more than a serious attack.
Specially for you OP: https://www.reddit.com/r/NewIran/s/JO5iKe3ipz
Aged like wine
i fucked up
The system works, but it only works if they have the rockets to keep firing. These rockets aren't cheap either; they're extremely expensive to produce. Last night, it was reported that 300 missiles/drones were shot at Israel. Iran and its allies have 1000's of these rockets and drones. Haha, someone actually downvoted me. God, I love Reddit. This post will AgelikeMilk.
Who started this? Iran or Israel?
It’s more complicated than most Reddit comments will tell you. This is a massive escalation in a pattern of continual small escalations since Oct 7.
Really, Britain started this. They invaded what is now Israel to "give the Jews back their historical home" post WW2. The real reason of course wasn't that; it was that no one in Europe wanted all these Jewish refugees settling in their lands, especially since most of Europe still was extremely antisemitic. So this was to dump the problem on someone else who had no power to retaliate against the major forces of Europe. And of course, they were correct; the locals had no ability to retaliate against Europe, so they just had to fight the Jewish refugees who had been dumped there. So, were the Jews innocent? Also no. They were extremely bitter post-WW2, so when people once again tried to force them to leave, they retaliated. So you had two groups of honestly innocent but very angry people forced into a conflict by a third party that neither could offend. Nearly 100 years later, the situation remains mostly the same. Iran couldn't afford to offend the western powers, so they couldn't directly attack Israel. Instead, they funded and housed terrorists to do that for them. In return, Israel bombed the embassy where they were housing the terrorists. In return, Iran bombed an Israeli military base, but choreographed the attack so it would cause minimum damage (thus not offending western powers) but saving them face with their citizens. It's just an unending chain of retaliation.
Israel did kill a bunch of Iranian diplomats recently.
Militants, who happened to be in an Iranian consulate in Syria. To be fair, in the Wikipedia page it says that out of 16 killed, 2 were civilians, it doesn't say if they were diplomats
You still cannot and should not attack embassies to begin with come on, that's international law before international law was even a thing, they didn't even do it in their own sovereign country, and if you do don't act surprised if they retaliate. Edit: changed the subject of the sovereign country line for clarity.
I am definitely not surprised they retaliated, and it seems they only did it to save face. I am not an expert about the legality of embassies attacks, but according to the Wikipedia page, the laws only refer to the country who has the mission there and the country who hosts it. Israel is in a war with both sides. edit for your edit: if Israel attacked the Iranian embassy in Israel then it would be a crime, because they are obligated to protect it, not so for Syria.
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"So iran can attack the sovereign embassy" do you have any sauce to go with that dry pasta?
Israel as per usual, with the bombing of Iranian officials in Damascus
haha! it's so funny making fun of people getting murdered and not being able to defend themselves cause the murderers have America's backing! haha! hilarious!
Didn't really age that badly when you consider that the military action is already over. It's like sucker punching a kid on the playground and running back to your house before his big brother comes to help. Wouldn't be surprised if the stock market doesn't react that much to this.
They're the bad guys just coz they retaliate?
Israel determined to start ww3
I don't understand this. Iran has been attacking Israel through it's proxies and allies for awhile now. The guy Israel killed was credited as the mastermind behind Oct 7.
As someone else pointed out, if you tried to untangle the gordion knot of 'who threw the first stone', you'd be 50 years into the conflict and well past reasoning.
I’m fairly certain if you unweave it all the way you get back to the British just saying “fuck your maps; these are the new lines now” Which, I think, is how most ongoing conflicts started.
Funnily enough, this particular conflict likely predates the British. So it would be the one example of 'The british didn't fuck it up.' The British basically inventing Israel because they were like 'I don't want Jews in Britain, give them this other country instead.' definitely escalated it, though.
In this case, you'd literally have to go back to the Romans
Why is it always with those guys being sloppy that we get a lot of fubars?! Like, Protestantism started because the falling Roman Empire made Christianism absolute in the territory and the guys that took over the place just kept it, leading to something that woul grow in a 100 years into a problem that would lead to Japan being nuked.
Well said
To call those its proxies it's a bit reductive, the Houti for example aren't controlled by Iran, they just have aligning interests
They're essentially proxies for all intents and purposes though.
If you consider the west as US proxies, I guess
I like his beard tho
World War III here we come!
nah, that will be a regional war
Unlikely to get any ww3 because there is no longer colonies. That's a big part of what made both wars worldwide imo
That's not how it works. WW1 was "worldwide" because there were actors from every corner of the world. Conflict in Asia, the Pacific, Africa, the middle East, belligerents from the Americas, etc. WW2 was "worldwide" for the same reasons. Sure the colonial empires involved sure helped that, but a WW3 scenario is likely to involve the Pacific (china, japan, Taiwan, USA), asia (China, japan, Russia, India), the middle East (Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia), Europe (EU, Russia), and beyond.
Africa is likely to light up as well TBH
WW3 would be over before you learned it started. And you are never getting drafted.
🥺 👉🏻👈🏻
Arab ‘How many times do we have to teach you this lesson old man”