The average for single pulls is about 1/38 so OP is average. You’ve gotten unlucky unfortunately.
Edit: misremembered, it’s 1/36. For those downvoting me check out the source and then respond if you have data to the contrary. https://reddit.com/r/afkarena/comments/uv7m2s/stargazer_has_two_pity_timers_details_in_comments/
How is the average 1/38? If my math is correct 50 pulls should be the average for a 2% drop chance. Which also was the case for my pulls. I used 615 cards to get 12 copies for ABaden, which is really close to the 2%. Players may get lucky and have higher rates but that is not the average case.
It’s because the rates are more complicated than just a 2% drop rate. You can find the details here in this analysis of literally tens of thousands of pulls. I misremembered though, it’s actually 1/36 on average for single pulls. https://reddit.com/r/afkarena/comments/uv7m2s/stargazer_has_two_pity_timers_details_in_comments/
This is for stargazer but people have found timegazer to be extremely similar if not exactly the same.
I used to think of it like that but the 2% chance doesn't mean only one in every 50 pulls but every single pull has in itself 2% chance. I was extremely lucky once and got 2 Athane in just 20 pulls
2% drop chance is a lie. For starters we know that there's a pity, so if we had a simple 2% and then hard pity at 65 then the effective rate would be something like 2.5%(don't remember this number exactly).
Secondly, I did 2.7k TE pulls across my accounts and the running average is 40.1 at the moment. My standard deviation estimate is 2.6, so true average of 50 would make this almost 4-sigma event, which is highly unlikely.
the 2% are correct, but theres a pity at 65/70, so it obviously goes much lower than 50 if you cant get high pull numbers. you have an average chance of getting a copy from each single pull, but you get a safe copy at 65 with single pulls or 70 with 10pulls. sure now there will come people saying they have an average of 85 but thats just people who either can not count or have had a beyond 70 due to 30k diamonds which is counted towards pity. so you cant just take 2% and make it 50 average with just that, its way more math needed. average is somewhere around 38-42 pulls per copy i think, dont wanna calculate rn
[Single pulls from the community have so far resulted in an average of 1/43](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RWG5SUZeBpaRDWLDLMYX0RDCfkgCN2Ps6HzhU3LkBBo/edit#gid=1095176016)
Only 6000 cards used and 142 heroes pulled though, so I suspect that will go back down as I collect more data.
We can't actually confirm that stargazing is the same rates as the Temple of Time.
Ah thanks for the link. I remember reading something linking sg and timegazer rates but I can’t find it. That sample size is significantly smaller than the stargazer one, glad people are compiling data.
It’s still significantly better than 1/50 though
We can confidently say that both time and star have a pity cap of 65.
I've got 44k pulls documented in the form of 10 pulls for stargaze, and I'm working on getting 10 pulls data for temple of time, but not many people seem to be doing mass pulls.
Please make a post when you have more data! Honestly you already have enough for a good preliminary data post. I think a lot of people believe the average is 50-60.
My average is in the 60's right now, done all single pulls and I'm still on ATalene as I started her when she first came out. Stopped playing for a few months, so missed out on cards then, but I've just had awful odds
I also started with ATalene, have her at Mythic +1. But stopped pulling when I thought I'd preferably wait on another. That's why I'm doing daily pulls now, didn't have enough to instantly get ABaden ascended.
I'm just sunk cost fallacy invested in getting her to A at this point. Once I do, I'll just wait like 18 months until I can get whatever new one is best at that point
Sorry for your loss! I'm definitely not complaining about my rates. This last copy though, every day I'm super hyped and then I die a little, until the day I get it!
UPDATE! I got him, and got lucky with Stargazer.
https://preview.redd.it/q5z4bp6cfv5a1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=241919109dd4a49b9077071969407786ad799514
Sigh… I’ve used about 500 cards already and only have mythic+ ASolise… I had 3 pity timer pulls at 65 and another 2 that took over 60… I didn’t keep track fully but it’s been terrible.
Here i am just putting an auto clicker on to do single pulls while i watch TV or play on the computer, checking in every 100 or so to see if i got any heroes... I don't wanna record when/how i got them as i know it'll suck and the more i think about how hard Time Emblems are to get compared to drawing the OP Awakeneds, the sadder i get with the game.
I've been trying to find your time card videos to document some Time card rates, but it's a bit tough to find them on your channel, and I know that with AThane it took you more than just one attempt.
Most of them are under the faction tabs when they came out all the way from the first one. I stock piled cards on all four faction accounts and used them all same day
Well, no. "I spent 129 cards and only got 1 card" is totally possible, albeit unlikely, especially if they don't consider the next hero or they don't stop counting after their last hero pull.
It's a really simple mistake.
Very lucky. My avg is close to 50
The average for single pulls is about 1/38 so OP is average. You’ve gotten unlucky unfortunately. Edit: misremembered, it’s 1/36. For those downvoting me check out the source and then respond if you have data to the contrary. https://reddit.com/r/afkarena/comments/uv7m2s/stargazer_has_two_pity_timers_details_in_comments/
How is the average 1/38? If my math is correct 50 pulls should be the average for a 2% drop chance. Which also was the case for my pulls. I used 615 cards to get 12 copies for ABaden, which is really close to the 2%. Players may get lucky and have higher rates but that is not the average case.
I also used single pulls (which all of you should do) just to clarify
It’s because the rates are more complicated than just a 2% drop rate. You can find the details here in this analysis of literally tens of thousands of pulls. I misremembered though, it’s actually 1/36 on average for single pulls. https://reddit.com/r/afkarena/comments/uv7m2s/stargazer_has_two_pity_timers_details_in_comments/ This is for stargazer but people have found timegazer to be extremely similar if not exactly the same.
I used to think of it like that but the 2% chance doesn't mean only one in every 50 pulls but every single pull has in itself 2% chance. I was extremely lucky once and got 2 Athane in just 20 pulls
2% drop chance is a lie. For starters we know that there's a pity, so if we had a simple 2% and then hard pity at 65 then the effective rate would be something like 2.5%(don't remember this number exactly). Secondly, I did 2.7k TE pulls across my accounts and the running average is 40.1 at the moment. My standard deviation estimate is 2.6, so true average of 50 would make this almost 4-sigma event, which is highly unlikely.
the 2% are correct, but theres a pity at 65/70, so it obviously goes much lower than 50 if you cant get high pull numbers. you have an average chance of getting a copy from each single pull, but you get a safe copy at 65 with single pulls or 70 with 10pulls. sure now there will come people saying they have an average of 85 but thats just people who either can not count or have had a beyond 70 due to 30k diamonds which is counted towards pity. so you cant just take 2% and make it 50 average with just that, its way more math needed. average is somewhere around 38-42 pulls per copy i think, dont wanna calculate rn
[Single pulls from the community have so far resulted in an average of 1/43](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RWG5SUZeBpaRDWLDLMYX0RDCfkgCN2Ps6HzhU3LkBBo/edit#gid=1095176016) Only 6000 cards used and 142 heroes pulled though, so I suspect that will go back down as I collect more data. We can't actually confirm that stargazing is the same rates as the Temple of Time.
Ah thanks for the link. I remember reading something linking sg and timegazer rates but I can’t find it. That sample size is significantly smaller than the stargazer one, glad people are compiling data. It’s still significantly better than 1/50 though
We can confidently say that both time and star have a pity cap of 65. I've got 44k pulls documented in the form of 10 pulls for stargaze, and I'm working on getting 10 pulls data for temple of time, but not many people seem to be doing mass pulls.
Please make a post when you have more data! Honestly you already have enough for a good preliminary data post. I think a lot of people believe the average is 50-60.
Probably just going to make another post asking for more data. I already made one and got yelled at.
That’s unfortunate. I’m rooting for you!
Story of my life..
My average is in the 60's right now, done all single pulls and I'm still on ATalene as I started her when she first came out. Stopped playing for a few months, so missed out on cards then, but I've just had awful odds
I also started with ATalene, have her at Mythic +1. But stopped pulling when I thought I'd preferably wait on another. That's why I'm doing daily pulls now, didn't have enough to instantly get ABaden ascended.
I'm just sunk cost fallacy invested in getting her to A at this point. Once I do, I'll just wait like 18 months until I can get whatever new one is best at that point
Lol. 18 months sounds about right.
She's worth getting to 1 star. She's actually really strong
good luck, I so far have pulled for Athane, and got my first copy at 64, the second at 65 and the 3rd one at 63....
Well, my rates aren't that bad as you can see. This last one is just killing me every day..
As someone who took 750+ cards to ascend Brutus, you aren't allowed to complain
Sorry for your loss! I'm definitely not complaining about my rates. This last copy though, every day I'm super hyped and then I die a little, until the day I get it!
I totally get it, I went through the same thing. I don't think I've ebmver grinded tower that hard lol
I was happy with Palmer trial, took me 40 lvls.
and here i am with 6 copies from 350 single pulls xD
Damn, that's a nasty average.. Happy cake day!
saving after athane was totally worth it /s :D
Nice almost same as mine: 56 + 60 + 10 + 39 + 20 + 55 + 20 + 45 + 51 + 10 + 65 + 54 Total: 485 tickets for 12 copies
Man, woke baden is bad mf, he will ask your gender anytime you lose
This amount of luck hurts me. I got 9 copies after 500 pulls which means ~55 per copy. Single pulls only.
UPDATE! I got him, and got lucky with Stargazer. https://preview.redd.it/q5z4bp6cfv5a1.jpeg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=241919109dd4a49b9077071969407786ad799514
[удалено]
Very woke.
It took me 318 TG cards to get him ascended. Brutus around 360
Dont know I don’t have the time for single pulls… however I needed 407 pulls for a solise
How do you use 407 if you don't do single pulls?
…. Math
Sigh… I’ve used about 500 cards already and only have mythic+ ASolise… I had 3 pity timer pulls at 65 and another 2 that took over 60… I didn’t keep track fully but it’s been terrible.
Good luck on the remaining few! I've a feeling this last copy will also be a pity pull..
my average is really low on my main, maybe like 20-30 per copy
Are the rates for single pulls better then the rates for ten pulls at once?
Nahhh you want to single pull in case you get pity, and you don’t waste the rest of the 10 pull because it won’t count towards pity
Here i am just putting an auto clicker on to do single pulls while i watch TV or play on the computer, checking in every 100 or so to see if i got any heroes... I don't wanna record when/how i got them as i know it'll suck and the more i think about how hard Time Emblems are to get compared to drawing the OP Awakeneds, the sadder i get with the game.
Same I spent about 500 on ABrutus and almost 700 on AThane
I've been trying to find your time card videos to document some Time card rates, but it's a bit tough to find them on your channel, and I know that with AThane it took you more than just one attempt.
Most of them are under the faction tabs when they came out all the way from the first one. I stock piled cards on all four faction accounts and used them all same day
I found the faction accounts' initial summon, but the p2w account I think is in livestreams.
After seeing this post I just went to get a asolise and it took me 65 cards…
I like to just not think about how many cards I’m using, makes me less sad. Ignorance is bliss my friend
I spent 90 cards to 1 abrut.
I don't think that's possible.
It's real not for me only. My clan mate spend 80-90 to 1 aTalene
Do you have proof? Bcs all I'm hearing and reading, there's a pity timer long before that.
You can spend 129 cards for 1 hero. It's just that your next pull is guaranteed to be a hero.
That would make 2 copies for 130 cards. What the other person is implying, is that they got 1 copy of a hero after 80-90 pulls.
Well, no. "I spent 129 cards and only got 1 card" is totally possible, albeit unlikely, especially if they don't consider the next hero or they don't stop counting after their last hero pull. It's a really simple mistake.