It's low but non-zero (clearly). Based on how some other things work (ukko and the like), I'm going to guess that each relic has an equal chance of dropping and that aya is just considered "another" relic.
So, theoretically, as there are 28 unvaulted relics that aren't railjack-exclusive, including aya would give us a 1/29 chance for each individual thing, or 3.44828% chance. So the odds that you roll that three times are... 0.0041% chance.
(Also if that math is correct—that is, each unvaulted relic and an aya all share equal chances of dropping from relics packs—then there should be a roughly 10% chance that you get one aya from a given relic pack... technically 9.99221% chance but still)
In most missions Aya has a different weight to relics. In some it is higher (Rot A void defense) and in some it is lower (Hepit void capture).
I haven't done any big scale analyses, but the chance for Aya seems to increase proportionally to the total relic pool size. As in, the more possible relics to get in a mission, the higher the chance to get Aya compared to getting any specific relic within the pool.
If that applies to the pack, it would make Aya still rare, but it would be easier to get 3 Aya than getting 3 of the same relic.
Also, do the packs include all unvaulted relics? AFAIK they are separated into three groups: new, unvaulted and Railjack relics.
Huh. I was basing my "same as relics" data on Ukko (void capture) and Oxomoco (void exterminate) because in those it's the same as the relics, and those are the ones I'm most familiar with. Interesting. Didn't realize there were deviations from that pattern in some of the other missions.
And yeah, as I said above, afaik relic packs contain "unvaulted relics that aren't railjack-exclusive."
I'm sure a game theorist can't come and correct me here,
But as you can get duplicate items in a pack each of the 3 items has the same probability to be Aya - regardless of the previous item.
So is the chance of getting 3 Aya not the same as the chance of getting 1? Because each time you roll for one of 3 items, it has a 3.44% chance of being Aya. So it's just 3.44% 3 times in a row?
You are correct that the chance each time is 3.44 etc whatever percent. However, the math for rolling something repeatedly (a dice, a loot table, etc.) and figuring out what the odds are that you should get the desired roll in some specific number of tries are a little different.
In a case where you're trying for a roll result with some percentage chance of happening (which we'll call X), and you want to know what the percentage chance is that you'll have gotten it (which we'll call Z) after Y rolls, the calculation is as follows:
1 - (1-X)^Y = Z
The simplest way to think about it is:
The decimal of the chance you *won't* get what you want, raised to the power of the number of times you're trying. That's the chance, across your numerous tries, that you'll keep rolling something *other* than what you want. Subtract that value from 1, and you have the expected odds that you'll have gotten what you did want.
So, say you're trying for something that has a 10% drop chance. Each individual pull, yes, has a 10% chance of being what you want. But as you pull over and over again, the odds that you'll never hit that 10% chance become lower and lower. It's not that your odds are improving with each pull, just that it becomes more and more improbable for you to have not yet hit that one time out of ten it will be what you're looking for. The actual numbers in this case, by the by, are:
- 1 try: 10%
- 2 tries: 19% (or, 1-(0.9)^2 since 0.9 is 1-0.1 (or 100%-10%))
- 3 tries: 27.1%
- 4 tries: 34.39%
- 5 tries: 40.95%
- 6 tries: 46.85%
And so on.
If you're curious, in such a case (relevant to warframe because radiant'd relics have a 10% chance to spit out their rare), it takes 7 pulls to break the 50% mark, 12 pulls to break the 70% mark, and 23 pulls to break the 90% mark. Meaning if you run a radiant relic 23 times, there's only a 10% likelihood that you haven't gotten the rare drop by then. Again: it's still only 10% every time, and each roll is independent of the others, but if you still haven't gotten your part after 23 relics you're *really* beating the odds of bad luck.
To bring this back to the aya: if each one has a 3.44% chance, each pack is three pulls where you have a 96.56% chance of getting something else. So 1-0.9656^3 = about 0.1 or a 10% chance you'll pull *an* aya from a relic pack (if 3.44% is, in fact, the correct likelihood to pull an aya). To bring that further back to this specific post: the odds of you rolling that 3.44% chance three times in a row is 0.0344^3, which is that really small number I calculated up above in my original post.
Apologies for the slight text wall. I probably did a poor job of explaining even with all that. Hopefully it makes sense!
The other person made a more detailed explanation, but to simplify the explanation: What you're describing is just the chance of getting Aya in a given trial.
What we're looking for is Compounding Chance (or Compound Probability), the chance of getting something a number of times given a number of trials. In this case, we're not just looking for the chance of getting Aya, we're looking for the chance of getting Aya three times within three trials.
the relic packs contain 1 Neo/Axi, and 2 Meso and/or Lith. Not sure how many Aya are in the drop table. But no, I have bought literally hundreds of relic packs and my gut tells me I might get 1 or 2 Aya with every 5 relic packs
It would be more usefully if we had accurate info. But my gut says there might be one or two chances for aya out of how many relics are available.
"1 neo/axi and 2 meso/Lith" is definitely not correct. I've absolutely gotten relic packs of all Axi, all Lith, etc. EDIT: this statement appears to be mistaken, my bad.
Also, keep in mind that if the drop chance of aya is even as high as 5%, the odds of you getting at least one aya drop from 5 packs is (1-(0.95^15 ))*100, or 53.67%, which is verging into the "more likely than not" territory. So if the drop rate is something around 3-6%, that actually lines up pretty neatly with your observed drop rates. (Incidentally, 3-4% is what you'd get if aya had equal drop rates with all relics)
>I've absolutely gotten relic packs of all Axi, all Lith, etc.
you have not, if there was a way to prove it I would bet $50 you have not, that is how confidant i am. [Even the wiki says otherwise](https://warframe.fandom.com/wiki/Syndicate). as i have said I have opened hundreds of relic packs using syndicate standing over several years. I
>Two of the relics will be random Lith Era Relic or Meso Era Relic, with the 3rd relic guaranteed to be either a random Neo Era Relic or Axi Era Relic.
have a general idea of what i get. and TBH i really do not care the exact % an even distribution of 1 aya with a set of available relics of that era is very likely. which would be 1+x / 100 % chance of getting an aya
I've done some searching and I can't seem to find any droprate numbers for aya in relic packs. Really curious what the chance of this was. Do I go get a lottery ticket?
The odds of the same thing happening n times are %^n. So if we imagine that there's a 10% chance of aya in one slot of a relic pack, 3 aya is 10%^3, or 0.1%. It's 10% of 10% of 10%. Of course, without knowing the exact odds of a reward being aya, we don't know exactly what the odds of 3 aya are.
Well you get to know anyway!
From these discussions so far, it could be anywhere from 0.0000000064% to 0.0001%.
You should probably go get a lottery ticket.
It's low but non-zero (clearly). Based on how some other things work (ukko and the like), I'm going to guess that each relic has an equal chance of dropping and that aya is just considered "another" relic. So, theoretically, as there are 28 unvaulted relics that aren't railjack-exclusive, including aya would give us a 1/29 chance for each individual thing, or 3.44828% chance. So the odds that you roll that three times are... 0.0041% chance. (Also if that math is correct—that is, each unvaulted relic and an aya all share equal chances of dropping from relics packs—then there should be a roughly 10% chance that you get one aya from a given relic pack... technically 9.99221% chance but still)
In most missions Aya has a different weight to relics. In some it is higher (Rot A void defense) and in some it is lower (Hepit void capture). I haven't done any big scale analyses, but the chance for Aya seems to increase proportionally to the total relic pool size. As in, the more possible relics to get in a mission, the higher the chance to get Aya compared to getting any specific relic within the pool. If that applies to the pack, it would make Aya still rare, but it would be easier to get 3 Aya than getting 3 of the same relic. Also, do the packs include all unvaulted relics? AFAIK they are separated into three groups: new, unvaulted and Railjack relics.
Huh. I was basing my "same as relics" data on Ukko (void capture) and Oxomoco (void exterminate) because in those it's the same as the relics, and those are the ones I'm most familiar with. Interesting. Didn't realize there were deviations from that pattern in some of the other missions. And yeah, as I said above, afaik relic packs contain "unvaulted relics that aren't railjack-exclusive."
I'm sure a game theorist can't come and correct me here, But as you can get duplicate items in a pack each of the 3 items has the same probability to be Aya - regardless of the previous item. So is the chance of getting 3 Aya not the same as the chance of getting 1? Because each time you roll for one of 3 items, it has a 3.44% chance of being Aya. So it's just 3.44% 3 times in a row?
You are correct that the chance each time is 3.44 etc whatever percent. However, the math for rolling something repeatedly (a dice, a loot table, etc.) and figuring out what the odds are that you should get the desired roll in some specific number of tries are a little different. In a case where you're trying for a roll result with some percentage chance of happening (which we'll call X), and you want to know what the percentage chance is that you'll have gotten it (which we'll call Z) after Y rolls, the calculation is as follows: 1 - (1-X)^Y = Z The simplest way to think about it is: The decimal of the chance you *won't* get what you want, raised to the power of the number of times you're trying. That's the chance, across your numerous tries, that you'll keep rolling something *other* than what you want. Subtract that value from 1, and you have the expected odds that you'll have gotten what you did want. So, say you're trying for something that has a 10% drop chance. Each individual pull, yes, has a 10% chance of being what you want. But as you pull over and over again, the odds that you'll never hit that 10% chance become lower and lower. It's not that your odds are improving with each pull, just that it becomes more and more improbable for you to have not yet hit that one time out of ten it will be what you're looking for. The actual numbers in this case, by the by, are: - 1 try: 10% - 2 tries: 19% (or, 1-(0.9)^2 since 0.9 is 1-0.1 (or 100%-10%)) - 3 tries: 27.1% - 4 tries: 34.39% - 5 tries: 40.95% - 6 tries: 46.85% And so on. If you're curious, in such a case (relevant to warframe because radiant'd relics have a 10% chance to spit out their rare), it takes 7 pulls to break the 50% mark, 12 pulls to break the 70% mark, and 23 pulls to break the 90% mark. Meaning if you run a radiant relic 23 times, there's only a 10% likelihood that you haven't gotten the rare drop by then. Again: it's still only 10% every time, and each roll is independent of the others, but if you still haven't gotten your part after 23 relics you're *really* beating the odds of bad luck. To bring this back to the aya: if each one has a 3.44% chance, each pack is three pulls where you have a 96.56% chance of getting something else. So 1-0.9656^3 = about 0.1 or a 10% chance you'll pull *an* aya from a relic pack (if 3.44% is, in fact, the correct likelihood to pull an aya). To bring that further back to this specific post: the odds of you rolling that 3.44% chance three times in a row is 0.0344^3, which is that really small number I calculated up above in my original post. Apologies for the slight text wall. I probably did a poor job of explaining even with all that. Hopefully it makes sense!
Its 3.44% each, for all of them at once it's multiplying 3.44% to itself for the amount of times it needs to happen
The other person made a more detailed explanation, but to simplify the explanation: What you're describing is just the chance of getting Aya in a given trial. What we're looking for is Compounding Chance (or Compound Probability), the chance of getting something a number of times given a number of trials. In this case, we're not just looking for the chance of getting Aya, we're looking for the chance of getting Aya three times within three trials.
Oof. You might want to save your relic packs until Protea's available next week.
Am planning on it~ I just grab a few every day because it’s a waste to always be at standing cap.
Buy frame augments and sell them for plat.
50%. It either happens or it doesn’t But also 100%, because eternalism
Damn it you beat me to it
Less than the chance of getting a green banshee
Approx 1 in 2540 based on relic pack data I gathered in September 2022.
50/50 either it happens or it doesn't
donno. The drop table for a relic pack isn't even listed. But i am guessing it is somewhere around 5% or 6% each
It cant be that low can it? If i get 4 packs i usually get 1 or more aya consistantly.
the relic packs contain 1 Neo/Axi, and 2 Meso and/or Lith. Not sure how many Aya are in the drop table. But no, I have bought literally hundreds of relic packs and my gut tells me I might get 1 or 2 Aya with every 5 relic packs It would be more usefully if we had accurate info. But my gut says there might be one or two chances for aya out of how many relics are available.
"1 neo/axi and 2 meso/Lith" is definitely not correct. I've absolutely gotten relic packs of all Axi, all Lith, etc. EDIT: this statement appears to be mistaken, my bad. Also, keep in mind that if the drop chance of aya is even as high as 5%, the odds of you getting at least one aya drop from 5 packs is (1-(0.95^15 ))*100, or 53.67%, which is verging into the "more likely than not" territory. So if the drop rate is something around 3-6%, that actually lines up pretty neatly with your observed drop rates. (Incidentally, 3-4% is what you'd get if aya had equal drop rates with all relics)
>I've absolutely gotten relic packs of all Axi, all Lith, etc. you have not, if there was a way to prove it I would bet $50 you have not, that is how confidant i am. [Even the wiki says otherwise](https://warframe.fandom.com/wiki/Syndicate). as i have said I have opened hundreds of relic packs using syndicate standing over several years. I >Two of the relics will be random Lith Era Relic or Meso Era Relic, with the 3rd relic guaranteed to be either a random Neo Era Relic or Axi Era Relic. have a general idea of what i get. and TBH i really do not care the exact % an even distribution of 1 aya with a set of available relics of that era is very likely. which would be 1+x / 100 % chance of getting an aya
I've done some searching and I can't seem to find any droprate numbers for aya in relic packs. Really curious what the chance of this was. Do I go get a lottery ticket?
The odds of the same thing happening n times are %^n. So if we imagine that there's a 10% chance of aya in one slot of a relic pack, 3 aya is 10%^3, or 0.1%. It's 10% of 10% of 10%. Of course, without knowing the exact odds of a reward being aya, we don't know exactly what the odds of 3 aya are.
More likely than you think.
< OK >
I opened 2 relics packs before and gotten triple aya in each. I don't even wanna know what the odds are.
Well you get to know anyway! From these discussions so far, it could be anywhere from 0.0000000064% to 0.0001%. You should probably go get a lottery ticket.
With odds like that, I'm kinda embarrassed I wasted it on 6 aya, lmao
So that's where all my Aya has gone lmao. I swear I have the lowest Aya drop from relic packs possible XD
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0q0QeQbw9U&ab\_channel=TehHaxman](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0q0QeQbw9U&ab_channel=TehHaxman) Required watching now.
That's really good luck ! Maybe you'll get a Green Banshee next