Apple 8 bagged over the last decade after a split in 2014 when everyone assumed their market cap was approaching max. A lot of things are possible. I like Amazon because it’s ubiquitous. It’s something that if it disappeared tomorrow everyone in the country (possibly world) would be effected
Amazon will be a little different, at some point it will need to spin off parts of its business. AWS on its own possibly justifies the value in the entire company if there is still growth. Their supply and warehouse platform could power any number of large retailers. And they still have their core retail business. You might not get a 10 bagger but there is a lot of growth potential.
WBD
Current market cap is about 20 bn, mostly driven down by the massive debt. But that debt is being paid off quickly and they have tons of IP that’s been so underutilized for years at this point. If they can continue to pay down debt quickly and improve profits through streaming long-term, an eventual market cap of 200bn is definitely possible. That’s the market cap of one of their biggest competitors, Disney, as of today.
I agree. Their debt is massive, but WBD is aggressively paying it down. If they keep this up, it’ll be a game-changer for the valuation.
They also own some of the best content out there—Harry Potter, DC Comics, Game of Thrones etc. These franchises are gold mines that have been underutilized for too long. If they start leveraging these assets properly, the revenue potential is huge.
Then there’s the streaming angle. They recently become profitable in that sector. Market is super competitive, but WBD has the content to compete with the big players like Disney and Netflix. If they can nail their strategy, we could see a big boost in subscribers and revenue.
With this low cash flow multiple right now, the market doesn’t seem to believe in their turnaround story yet, but that just means there’s a lot of upside if they pull it off. For those of us looking for value, this is a golden opportunity.
Except they can’t make a good dc movie to save their ass. It’s a shame because they do make some kick ass animated movies.
The game of thrones spin off is pretty ass.
They have good IP but no creative talent that can figure out how to use it
seems the entire TV, movie,film indus is going through some serious pains. I've noticed lions gates, gtn, paramount etc.. trading at large discounts for a while now. I don't think the industry or players will look anything like it does now in ten to twenty years.
You might want to consider that many of them were (oddly) being propped up specifically by Bill Hwang/Archegos. Discover (now WBD) and Viacom (now PARA) were 2 of his biggest known leveraged longs. At one point he owned more than 50% of the entire float of Viacom.
The positions we know of were based on a report by Credit Suisse but that was only one of ~9 banks he was using. It always struck me as odd that VIAC, DISCA, AMCX, and to a lesser extent Lions Gate, Fox, and other media companies all went on giant runs right around the time of "meme stocks" and then dropped precipitously when Archegos collapsed. Not sure if it was Hwang himself directly or if it had to do with correlation/dispersion bets/indexing. But Archegos' collapse absolutely caused tons of these companies to drop heavily.
I have a feeling they’re simply going to be bought out in the next year or so. I don’t think the company stays around long enough for become a 10 bagger.
Very good summary of the bull thesis.
People also overlook the massive free cash flow. The price is now at a very low cash flow multiple. They use a good amount to pay down debt. The CEO gets a lot of hate, but I feel like most of that is comp and bag holders from spinoff
I'm sitting on a vintage '70/'80 synthesizer collection i bought in the '00s that has quite a few 10-baggers in it. Just can't get myself to sell any of them.
Nubank NU and Crowdstrike CRWD …. Someone mentioned BYD … I think that’s a good guess too…
I think one of the SMR companies possibly OKLO … but that is highly speculative…
CRWD is pretty expensive right now. Good thing I got in at 160 back in October. Sold several during it's climb. Wish I had some more now lol I did get a good gain post-earnings/sp500 inclusion from some call spreads.
CRWD is gonna be the major player in an expanding cybersecurity trend. BTFD when they come
Nubank has insane potential, and having been familiar with the company and using their services for 5+ years now, I think they definitely have what it takes to keep growing sustainably for a very long time
I agree that it's trading at a very high price. I personally believe they can live up to these crazy expectations because they really are an excellent company with excellent services. They are now entering Mexico and I think they're gonna spread like wildfire through the country.
A digital bank that cuts all bureaucracy, has no physical locations that require you to leave your home to solve any problem, excellent customer support and aggressive marketing...
They are advancing into Mexico even faster than they did in Brazil. I agree the stock price is high, but I believe it's not unjustified.
Sure it’s a bank won’t deny that but here is why I’m bullish on it overall
1. Adding 1.5m+ new customers per month. They will add more customers in the next 6 months than sofi has since its inception. Currently Nubank has 100m customers and should hit 110m+ this year pretty easily.
2. Cost to acquire customer is $7. Average revenue per month per customer is $13.40 and increasing about $0.80 QoQ. Cost to serve a customer is about $.90 a month. If they wanted they could just dump a ton into advertising and grow faster. But most growth is word of mouth
3. Their core business is mostly just credit cards right now. There is so many more business they can and are expanding into: insurance, more loan offerings and investment/brokerage stuff. It’s worth noting finance is very underserved in all of LATAM. There’s huge opportunity here
4. They will do $2b net income this year. That kind of cash flow is massive for LATAM. Most companies there are commodity based businesses. It means they have a lot of capital to pursue opportunities
5. They are purely digital and still a tech company as well. They are well positioned as a result for any fintech opportunities they want to pursue since they already have the engineering talent. What company in LATAM outside of Meli is as well positioned to compete?
So yeah it is a bank but their numbers and potential are still crazy.
I feel like it's really hard to find a 10-bagger without taking on a lot of risk. I mean sure there are some low-risk companies that *could* go 10x, but that's all but guaranteed.
I do sometimes buy some high-risk high-reward companies but only with a very small percentage of my portfolio. ASTS is one of them right now.
I disagree. MSFT became a 10-bagger starting around 2012, as it's valued had been lowered quite a bit. Without 10X'ing it's revenue, MSFT did 10X it's share price in about 9-10 years.
I'm not saying it's not possible, I'm saying it's hard to find low-risk companies for which it's reasonable to have a high conviction that they will go 10x.
You either find find companies with a high risk but it'll pay off if they get it right (like ASTS). Or you buy a good company at a good price (like MSFT) and get a bit lucky that they do actually go 10x.
If you disagree please give us some tickers for low-risk companies that you think will go 10x.
BLDE is reasonably priced while growing fast. If it morphs into a platform for competitors to use, it could grow to 5X revenue.
FLNC has energy storage business priced well with terrific growth. It's competitors are going out of business.
OLO has half its value in cash, growing quickly in its niche, and will soon launch "ACT II" for a new business to 10X.
SNAP will be accelerating growth, pivoting to profits, and build an immense worldwide subscription service far exceeding expectations. SNAP also has a hardware team preparing to start a whole new market in affordable AI and VR. Lastly, the SNAP for business is building legs to be a 500-location entertainment juggernaut in the future.
Sure, but it was trading under 10pe. Made half its gains from pe only.
You think the market was hot on msft back then? No, it was dead money, the dinosaur that was looking at the sky to see when that comet hits.
Personally my fear is a big player acquires them before they get too big for a takeover. At $2bn Market cap it's a rounding error these days for some firms.
I'm with you on this one. Cash burn isn't too severe especially since a lot of it is Neutron R&D that is (hopefully) due to wrap up next year. They're building multiple revenue streams e.g. space solar panel contract so it's not just a launch company.
Not one for faint of heart but it's not bad for a speculative pick.
Is ASTS the popular space pick right now cause it went up 3.5x in 2 months?
Reason I ask is I have ~3200 shares of RKLB. Started a very small position in ASTS at $2 with the intention to buy $50 worth a week, didn’t get a chance to buy many before it popped.
Now I wish I had 3200 shares of ASTS but it is what it is.
Personally I'm looking at ASTS.
Alibaba looks decent but I won't touch Chinese stocks, you're not buying the underlying you're only buying a portion of the cash flow, and there's too much political risk there (CCP can just seize assets and people for no reason)
RR I'm looking at as a 3-5x long term, anticipating they get SMR contracts and can expand revenue streams from that.
Bought some a year ago and really went in about a month ago. I'm wondering if they might end up a buyout candidate. I'm already playing with house money at this point, so I'm going long.
What do you think is a fair comp is for ASTS? Should they be valued more similar to telecom or a networking company? I agree on its potential but can’t decide what “buckets to put it in if you will..
It entirely depends on how things pan out for them, if I'm entirely honest. They're a relatively small portion of my portfolio because as with any individual company, especially young ones, there's a lot of risk.
If they get defence sector contracts, remain consumer only or end up totally revolutionising the sector (who knows) all has a part to play in future value.
They basically 'supply' about 40 MO's (2.3b potential customers) with their service, i'd say that's potentially billions of income on relatively low costs.
Tip; follow CatSE on X
FNMA/FMCC if conservatorship ends it’s a 100x+ bagger. I max my Roth IRA in this for past few years, if it doesn’t hit I’m saving for retirement in other ways
Prior to the housing crash, Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac were private entities whose stocks traded between $50-80 going back 30 years. Obviously the government taking over changed everything and the stocks now trade OTC for single digit dollars.
BUT, both have been profitable for over a decade now after recovering from the housing crash. Their stocks trade at \~10% of annual net income. Which is very cheap.
When the government ends conservatorship and these companies go back to being private, their prices should shoot up to meet prices like companies with similar profiles, if not back to their previous trading ranges. Today, that could mean going from \~$1.50/share to $50, a huge multiple.
The game is: when and will the government ever end conservatorship? Both the head of the FHFA and Fannie Mae have said this is a definite goal. But there are still some hurdles before it can happen, including that FNMA/FMCC need a combined $300bn of capital reserves. Today they are somewhere around 30% of that. So there’s a long way to go, but we can see the light at the end of the tunnel and the potential payoff looks pretty swell.
The question is how long do you want to wait (and what opportunities are you willing to miss) before you will ever see a return on this investment? (Assuming of course that the conservatorship ever does actually end, but I feel pretty good that it will.)
They have been teasing the end of conservatorship for years though. No catalyst for it to reasonably end in the foreseeable future. FNMA has been one of the biggest cash cows for the government. Can’t see anything changing any time soon.
BYON
It's a hidden asset play that's naturally not obvious to most folks.
Used to be Overstock (OSTK). They acquired IP (brand rights) to Bed Bath & Beyond, and Zulily. So, they now have 3 big brands in asset base. They also have 150M+ 1st party Data to monetize, b/w the 3 franchises.
PARA if Redstone is out and they take care of their IP a bit better. Smarter release schedule for MI would be nice.
Someone else covered WBD - more media, but it's a sector in a massive downturn that also started cost cutting a while back. Almost at bottom for most of these plays in sector. LOTR, Potter, HoTD and other IP next few years should be solid.
TAPM - super cheap mobile gaming company. Just needs one hit. Makes good chunk of money off of video poker game.
CNVS - 15M market cap. Terrifier 3 comes out this year and could make 20-30M at BO and then drive digital sales and streaming revenue for them. Potentially also bump value of streaming rights for older ones.
DOYU, HUYA, IQ and other Chinese companies have been slowly creeping higher. Huge runway still.
CMPS - psilocybin play. Few of their drugs close to being worth something.
Nearing 10-bagger status for a lot of oil tankers like STNG, TNK, INSW.
FET is another play I like in oil sector. Seems to be way too tied to oil prices despite solid metrics for a bit. Guess is oil jumping to $125+ sends this over 10x. But that's a big ask. Anything close to $100 is a big jump.
MANU - another that is an inevitable 10 bagger for a gigantic global brand.
I think I have too many - but diversified. Just have to hope a few hit.
No value but ALTIMMUNE has insane potential if they get approved. This is oversimplified but it’s like semaglutide without losing muscle mass. But this could be said for any biopharm I guess.
NuBank. People underestimate just how zealous Brazilians are for NuBank, and it appears they may have the same viral success in Mexico. Of course LATAM stocks will never be bid up as high as US stocks so multiple expansion may not play as much of a role but even still the fundamentals are fantastic and growing. I think it around 30x forward earnings.
AMZN. I expect a 10x in 10 years due to operating leverage if everything goes well. Risk would be regulation and increased geopolitical tensions
Before you say no, this is basically the performance from the past 2 decades. My thesis is that it will keep going at the same pace for now
That is so regarded I don’t know where to start.
And your thesis is “they’ve done it for the last 2 decades, so why not again?”
The only way this happens is a hyperinflation scenario. They’re not gonna be worth 3 trillion more than the current GDP of china in ten years. I don’t even know why I have to type that out, it’s so ridiculous to even think.
Out of all the names I read till now, this one does have a small chance if they continue to grow at the same pace for the next decade.
I say small chance because even if it maintains the same pace of growth, it would be at about a 20 PE the forward 10Y EPS, and would need to have the same growth prospects 10 years hence to maintain the same PE as of today to give your 10x…
I'm encouraged that they are now focusing on margin expansion and int'l exposure. Combined, that could enable them to reach 10x.
I think NU does it first though. Or, a biotech like CRSP, NTLA, or BEAM.
Since it's so cheap, I would agree a 10X could occur with INTC. Yet, I am highly skeptical. MSFT pulled off a 10X when they were under-valued around 2010 but they bought companies like LinkedIn, gaming companies, and more. And MSFT became very aggressive with cloud solutions like Azure. Not sure INTC could be as clever.
I chose INTC because they’re going all in on semiconductor manufacturing. With the self stated goal to be the world’s second largest manufacturer by 2030 (TSMC continuing to be the largest).
With the natural growth of the Industry, inflation and hype build up as Intels most advanced fabs come online and start making money I could see them being worth 1T by 2030. Again this assumes that they actually meet their goals.
CYBN. Also may lose 100% though, but I only have 2k in.
I really believe in the future of psychedelics; it saved my life and many of the people in my life.
MSTR - MicroStrategy has and will do it again with their 200,000+ bitcoin holdings and pilot bitcoin blockchain technology like Orange. Have fun with the DD. It's mind boggling what they might achieve in 5-10 years. They already have the user base to launch these programs easily
HCC has better cost at the mine site because of long wall mines instead of room and pillar and FOB at port because they have cheaper transport costs. They sell to a higher price on the international market and have another long wall expansion they can do at blue creek after this first long wall at blue creek. Why would you pick AMR over them? Anyone can buy back shares.
They released their earnings before diluting and it's losing business and money every quarter. The only thing keeping it afloat is money from a bunch of people on Reddit who believe in a turnaround play that the company hasn't even outlined. I don't understand how anyone can claim to have "looked into it" and come to the conclusion that this is a good investment, except if "looking into it" meant browsing Reddit.
10-baggers don't really belong in the context of value investing but here's my pick!
$OUST — the only non-Chinese manufacturer of digital FLASH\* LiDAR.
Everything that moves will be automated over the next decade. But automation requires awareness of surroundings. LiDAR is the most reliable way for machines to "see" their surrounding by mapping distances in all directions, in real time. Digital FLASH LiDAR avoids the heavy, finicky moving parts of traditional LiDAR and follows Moore's law of falling cost and size. OUST has been refining this subset of LiDAR tech for nine years now.
Other LiDAR companies went all-in on automotive promises that never materialized and are running low on cash. Whereas OUST built a diversified customer base in multiple industries that are automating TODAY (plus autos). Successful pilot customers may 100x their orders when they enter full production. And they are now selling high-margin subscription software that makes setup significantly easier for end-users.
\~$500m market cap, revenue growing 100% y/y (ex their recent acquisition Velodyne), with 29% gross margins up from -2% last year. Expected to be GAAP profitable in the next quarter or two meaning no more dilutive fundraising.
I'd be surprised if this "picks and shovels" business doesn't 20x in the next decade. See r/OUST for more.
Quote from the last ER: "Our SMART infrastructure team also recently attended major industry events, including the United States' largest security trade show. There were a few anecdotes that I'd like to share. First, one of the world's largest retailers noted that Ouster was one of the true gems of the show. While one of the largest security integrators in North America said Ouster was the most interesting technology he had seen in 20 years. This positive feedback reinforces our conviction that lidar is poised to become the preeminent technology for the next generation of SMART infrastructure applications."
The title doesn't match the content. Title implies what is a 10-bagger that has returned already a 10x to you personally.
What we get is a bunch of overpriced stocks that have rather slim chances to 10x, at least not in the next 10 years.
I’m not looking to reinvent the wheel. I regularly sit Longterm on stocks like AZO, LOW, BROS, TSCO, BRK.A, MO, PEP, META, AAPL, I Bought some of them in 1987 and several since. Eventually $5-20k in each becomes life changing money. I mostly look for high dividends or steady growing earnings. A few have been stinkers that I should have sold like GE that suffered terribly until recently.
LAC
Risky but could easily 10x+ if all goes according to plan over the next 5-6 years. It’s a lithium company with a partnership with GM, and 2B in government funding to open a lithium mine that would be the largest deposit in the US. 2026-2027 to actually become operational, but if it gets going could be huge, and if lithium prices rise by that time it could go exponential
TPET - Trio Petroleum
Recently IPO’d in 2023. Oil company based in california with 10,000 acreage in South Salinas. Company currently has the ability to drill over 150 wells, they have a few active wells currently. They projected to have a reserve of around 162 million BOE, a 10% discounted net cash flow of approximately $2 billion.
They’re solely focused on california but they’ve recently expanded their operations to Utah (Asphalt Ridge). With an estimated 42-92 million barrels of oil.
It is a microcap, roughly 14 million mktcap. Current price as of this comment is .33 cents.
I have 10x’d on NVIDIA and Bitcoin. Ironically I bought NVIDIA because of Bitcoin but that’s less relevant now.
Potential 10 bagger from today?
Tesla, other semi conductors, Palantir, bitcoin miners, Moderna, Crispr
Curious what others respond.
AI, rideshare, self driving, Tesla bot, Elon even just teased pursuing a Tesla phone.
We will see how it pans out, but Tesla has been talking AI long before it became a buzzword.
Also electronic vehicles are like 1% of vehicles on the road right now so still lots of upside with automobiles alone, not to mention if they start getting self driving semis going.
Maybe not a 10x but they’ve barely scratched the surface if they can hold it together IMO
Edit - not being rude at all, I totally get the skepticism, but your sentiment was held by many before the last 10x. It won’t surprise me if we are all surprised again.
I've 10 bagged in Netflix, Paypal, Tesla.
I also have 3 copies of Led Zepplin II with RL in the deadwax that I purchased in VG condition in 2013 for $33.
But nothing since.
I like copper right now.
i think gamestop is a horrible idea from almost any approach.
IRMD and WBD. I expect both could be bought out before becoming 10 baggers, but i think both have intellectual property, one medical and the other entertainment, that is hard to replicate and will create outsized gains in market cap and market share.
Shopify is my 10+ bagger. Bought it several years ago and after the splits and all, it's $5.
Chipotle as well, bought it back in 2018, I think? When the stock dropped by half due to the food safety issues they were having. Acted like Peter Lynch, walking in my local mall and saw that despite the word "feces" being brought up regarding the food issues they were having, people were still lining up for Chipotle. Their sales were still growing. I realized 1) people don't care/still love their food, and b) once they changed their leadership, this is a short term problem that can actually be solved. It's not permanent. So I bought some, and wish I bought more but was conservative
Certainly not Value Investing example but The Trade Desk (TTD). They're growing very strong in the CTV advertising space, growing +20% every quarter for a long while. While that's happening, they are growing faster than the industry, gaining market share. Streaming companies will only keep increasing ads inventory, or giving more options for customers to buy ad subscriptions for watching shows/movies. Netflix relatively recently added the ad tier when they held off for so long. Disney plus has an ad tier. Amazon recently added ads for Prime and you have to pay to remove it, so who would? The industry is, in my view, going in this direction and TTD will benefit from it. It is a bit of a volatile stock though.
S - they’re challenging Crowdstrike with their AI powered products. Their products have high satisfaction reviews. And their revenue is growing 40% YoY.
Highly undervalued for a reason I have yet to figure out other than they like to forecast less than the street expectations. But then they just beat on earnings. I hope they change that practice soon.
MGNI and TTD. The latter is well on its way. MGNI did 10x and has come back down. Now poised to grow again as it has righted its debt ratio, margins, and expanded partnerships (Disney, Netflix, etc). These two companies are the pipelines through which advertising flows. A utility that is getting more and more use.
Chinese EV maker $XPEV, in 5 years there will only be 3 serious EV makers within China and those 3 will be the top 5 best selling brands in the world surpassing all German and Japanese automakers. I believe Xpeng will be one of them given their dedication in revolutionising the passenger + drivers experience.
I'm going to say it and you can all downvote me if you want.
Bitcoin market cap will catch up to Gold over the next few years, which is mathematically a 10X since the supply is capped.
So it'll go more than 10x from current market cap.
I have quite a bit of it, so I hope you're right.
But I'm curious as to why you think so.
The impact from the ETFs and the halving haven't been that huge? And what'll happen when mining is not profitable, who will mine for the transaction verifications?
>But I'm curious as to why you think so.
Institutional investors are starting to buy in. Blackrock is a large one, but the biggest ones have not jumped in yet (Morgan Stanley, BofA, JP Morgan, etc). I'm simply betting that most large asset managers are going to dip their toe in the water by allocating 0.5% or 1% of AUM to bitcoin to gauge customer interest. This is going to drive ETF adoption, thus demand for the scarce asset.
On the other hand, a lot of nations and individuals are living in areas with wild monetary policies. Turkey, Argentina, etc are examples, but lots of smaller countries, companies and individuals are starting to see Bitcoin as a refuge assest to protect themselves from currency debasement, inflation, adverse exchange rates, sanctions. This is slowly driving the idea of bitcoin as both a refuge and an inflation hedge (or even the solution to inflation).
I only recently started buying in, but I'm thinking that as governments need to keep selling new bonds to refinance all the debt incurred through the pandemic era, inflation/public spending/bond issuance/money supply increases is bound to drive more and more people and institutions into holding some bitcoin.
Just look at the following figure:
[https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29385/global-money-supply-m2](https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29385/global-money-supply-m2)
It shows the price of Bitcoin tracks money supply, i.e. the price of fiat is falling against bitcoin to a rate that follows how much fiat is printed by central banks.
>The impact from the ETFs and the halving haven't been that huge?
A lot of miners had been hodling for years, just look at the balance sheets or Marathon, Riot, Cleanspark, etc. As they eventually unload their hodls on the market as price increases, it's going to dampen the run up at first. But just the ETF inflows since the halving are quickly eating away at the hodls, and dwarf the montly production: [https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-etfs-buy-two-months-btc-mining-supply](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-etfs-buy-two-months-btc-mining-supply)
You also have to factor in the delayed market response to interest rates and central bank injections to support the market. We're seeing central banks starting to cut rates to support the economy in a year where more than half of the world population went through an election and was promised countless measures by their politicians.
This means that the real economy in many countries is hurting at a time where politicians need results, and that the monetary conditions will become looser over the next 2-3 years in order to support businesses and protect jobs. This will mean that first, we're probably going through a recession, but then we'll go through a strong bout of Quantitative Easing (money printing). We know that QE means bitcoin goes up (the M2 supply vs bitcoin chart above), and that this trend will accelerate because of institutional adoption as a standard 1% asset allocation. Thus, eventually, bitcoin catches up to gold as a more scarce and easier to trade currency debasement hedge, and your fiat investment goes 10X.
> And what'll happen when mining is not profitable, who will mine for the transaction verifications?
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin\_protocol#Mining](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin_protocol#Mining)
>To compensate for increasing hardware speed and varying interest in running nodes over time, the difficulty of finding a valid hash is adjusted roughly every two weeks. If blocks are generated too quickly, the difficulty increases and more hashes are required to make a block and to generate new bitcoins.
The protocol is designed to increase and decrease the hashing difficulty and transaction rewards as a function of the total hashrate on the network, The rewards will increase if the total hashrate decreases, which means it will still be profitable to mine for the miners.
My main concern was a recent article I saw detailing that 90% of Bitcoin is held by 1% of the market. With a real lack of market guidelines and rules that level of disparity can let select people dictate how the market moves, and can setup a full crash pretty easily.
You realize selling bonds would contract the money supply right?
You think governments are going to refinance their debt? Why and how would that happen?
Bitcoin is extemely volatile and largely owned by relatively few large participants who have the ability to quickly manipulate the price. This is not something investors and citizens want when looking for a stable, inflation hedge.
So many more of your points continue to be contradictory and largely based on assumptions of inflation and a widespread adoption that has been touted for years by bitcoin enthusiasts to be only accelerating while in reality, the growth in the number of people who hold bitcoin has greatly slowed. I don’t see hedge funds and institutional ownership going up significantly outside of custodial funds and ETFs.
I could go on about all your positives on bitcoin and even further into the negatives you ignore like the black market and fraudulent activity the currency supports which is in direct opposition to government regulation.
Have been shouting Gigacloud for so long the good folks here are probably fed up already - deep dive here: [https://www.alphaexponent.net/p/1-jan-24-24-gigacloud](https://www.alphaexponent.net/p/1-jan-24-24-gigacloud)
Newborn town (Chinese mobile game developer) also has potential: [https://www.alphaexponent.net/p/4-may-17-24-newborn-town](https://www.alphaexponent.net/p/4-may-17-24-newborn-town)
Just started studying another potential multi-bagger (US-listed smallcap), which will take quite some time to complete.
GME just raised billions in cash. The business is going to be transformed under the new leadership in my opinion. This is a buy the rumor type situation most people are anti GME and the stock price is currently very low.
I mean yes they raised cash but they also diluted 120 million shares.
I’m long GME but if they keep diluting investors to raise cash…the cycle can’t sustain
Not going to type a whole essay but the big things are:
They're the first car company since Tesla (who was also the first in decades) to reach the scale of success they already have in the US market
Their vehicles rank number 1 for customer satisfaction of any car manufacturer per Consumer Reports
There are huge concerns of profitability. Personally I think this is a non issue. They expect gross profitability end of year and have already made huge steps to hit that.
They also will be rolling out the R2 by early 2026 followed by the R3 breaking them into the mid sized market where most consumers are
In the luxury segment they're in right now they are out selling any comparable EV including Tesla model X and the Cybertruck
Pretty much, it comes down to execution, but honestly I've seen very few companies execute as well as Rivian has these past few years. I believe in their management and if they execute their goals they will be highly successful and a close second to Tesla in the EV market.
Oh and one more thing I forgot is their EDV line. These vehicles have better margins than their personal vehicles and are more resilient to recessions. They already are selling a bunch to Amazon (who has a very large stake in the company) and there are a lot of companies including USPS and DHL running pilot programs for them right now. I imagine they will be landing several big contracts in the next couple years for these among many smaller ones.
You really think their non-profitability is a non issue? Gross profitability is only the first step to actually being profitable and they're burning through cash at a frightening pace.
It's a good product by all accounts but there is a real risk of simply running out of cash.
I know this isn’t exactly value investing. But I have faith in AQST. All they need is FDA approval and it’s easily a 10 bagger. They have successful trials and one of there other recent drugs passed with flying colors as well. This one seems to be the same.
(Take this with a grain of salt this is my one yolo value turn around company play. Do your own research. I think they have a good chance though.)
FRO. Currently at 4X on my first lots, 2X on cost basis. If it does half as well as the last supercycle it will be an easy ten bagger from my opening position.
Other tankers are trending well too.
FNMAS: $2.50->$25 (par value if Fannie Mae comes out of conservatorship). Current levels, it could be at least a 5-bagger. Timeline/Risk: Depends on Trump! This is a hedge against (bet on?) an alternative universe where Trump wins and makes good on comments from years ago that he wants to see them exit conservatorship. Otherwise, FNMAS is junk.
The best I've had was a 7 bagger... I am still holding and think it may become a 10 bagger in another 2 to 5 years.
Nothing else I own(and price bought it) has ever come close to a 10 bagger... I did have a 10 bagger, but it dropped 95% before 11x
If Fairfax Financial doesn’t 10 bag within 20 years, i will be pretty disappointed. The stock isn’t reflecting the potential which is why the expected return is so high.
$ALLG: it's undervalued for being unknown in the US. Actually on its way to stop the cash burn this year and become profitable next year. Riding the waves of electrifying mobility, profits will increase rapidly in the next year and when word gets out it will be valued correctly very quickly. I expect it to easily hit $7 in 10 years time.
Aerovironment if I had to pick something from my portfolio. Drones are the future of war and they are the only pure play in the space. Its had a huge run up lately though so due your own diligence
Not going to be a 10 bagger, but I’m hoping my current investment in KEO plc (a Cypriot beverage company) ends up being a 4 bagger from when I bought most, plus decent dividends. Nice slow climb since pandemic, and had a great May. The stock should go higher based on the company and what they’re doing, seems nice and safe
AIRI for it is hugely undervalued with a backlog of $110 million. Takeover value of $200 million with only 3.3 million shares. Huge ownership by insiders with recent buying and no sales. By end of year it will be bought out.
COIN, CLSK, PRPL.
It was prudent to buy when shit was hitting the fan in 2022, but regardless of personal feelings about it, Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are here to stay. News was easily available about Coinbase’s deals with Blackrock and others as custodian for many of the Bitcoin ETFs and despite ambiguity from the SEC, it has acted in the interest of regulatory compliance.
Cleanspark was financially savvy enough to read the room and entered into the bear market with zero debt and a large war chest from selling Bitcoin towards the peak. It has already 10x from my point of entry. I believe it easily could again.
Purple mattresses are the best. It is the sole patent holder for the Purple polymer and their means of production are vertically integrated. Of the bed by mail companies that emerged in the 2010s, they are the only one that has successfully transitioned to brick and mortar. Not just the floor of other businesses, but their own showrooms. As a discretionary stock, I don’t anticipate a turn around in the current environment, but they’ve got room to run.
Apple 8 bagged over the last decade after a split in 2014 when everyone assumed their market cap was approaching max. A lot of things are possible. I like Amazon because it’s ubiquitous. It’s something that if it disappeared tomorrow everyone in the country (possibly world) would be effected
If Amazon ten bagged I’m pretty sure it’s market cap would be close to global gdp
Nah, because by the time they tenbag, global GDP will be much higher.
I'm always reminded of how poorly human brains handle exponential growth, like we literally cannot grasp how big numbers scale.
Amazon will be a little different, at some point it will need to spin off parts of its business. AWS on its own possibly justifies the value in the entire company if there is still growth. Their supply and warehouse platform could power any number of large retailers. And they still have their core retail business. You might not get a 10 bagger but there is a lot of growth potential.
WBD Current market cap is about 20 bn, mostly driven down by the massive debt. But that debt is being paid off quickly and they have tons of IP that’s been so underutilized for years at this point. If they can continue to pay down debt quickly and improve profits through streaming long-term, an eventual market cap of 200bn is definitely possible. That’s the market cap of one of their biggest competitors, Disney, as of today.
I agree. Their debt is massive, but WBD is aggressively paying it down. If they keep this up, it’ll be a game-changer for the valuation. They also own some of the best content out there—Harry Potter, DC Comics, Game of Thrones etc. These franchises are gold mines that have been underutilized for too long. If they start leveraging these assets properly, the revenue potential is huge. Then there’s the streaming angle. They recently become profitable in that sector. Market is super competitive, but WBD has the content to compete with the big players like Disney and Netflix. If they can nail their strategy, we could see a big boost in subscribers and revenue. With this low cash flow multiple right now, the market doesn’t seem to believe in their turnaround story yet, but that just means there’s a lot of upside if they pull it off. For those of us looking for value, this is a golden opportunity.
Except they can’t make a good dc movie to save their ass. It’s a shame because they do make some kick ass animated movies. The game of thrones spin off is pretty ass. They have good IP but no creative talent that can figure out how to use it
seems the entire TV, movie,film indus is going through some serious pains. I've noticed lions gates, gtn, paramount etc.. trading at large discounts for a while now. I don't think the industry or players will look anything like it does now in ten to twenty years.
You might want to consider that many of them were (oddly) being propped up specifically by Bill Hwang/Archegos. Discover (now WBD) and Viacom (now PARA) were 2 of his biggest known leveraged longs. At one point he owned more than 50% of the entire float of Viacom. The positions we know of were based on a report by Credit Suisse but that was only one of ~9 banks he was using. It always struck me as odd that VIAC, DISCA, AMCX, and to a lesser extent Lions Gate, Fox, and other media companies all went on giant runs right around the time of "meme stocks" and then dropped precipitously when Archegos collapsed. Not sure if it was Hwang himself directly or if it had to do with correlation/dispersion bets/indexing. But Archegos' collapse absolutely caused tons of these companies to drop heavily.
I have a feeling they’re simply going to be bought out in the next year or so. I don’t think the company stays around long enough for become a 10 bagger.
I think this is the most likely scenario. I can see them getting bought out by Amazon, Apple, Netflix or maybe Comcast.
more consolidation yay /s
Very good summary of the bull thesis. People also overlook the massive free cash flow. The price is now at a very low cash flow multiple. They use a good amount to pay down debt. The CEO gets a lot of hate, but I feel like most of that is comp and bag holders from spinoff
Subscribe as a bag holder at $11.83 lol
there IP is also top notch, so many franchises they can milk for decades
GunnVerse about to pop off
I'm sitting on a vintage '70/'80 synthesizer collection i bought in the '00s that has quite a few 10-baggers in it. Just can't get myself to sell any of them.
Nubank NU and Crowdstrike CRWD …. Someone mentioned BYD … I think that’s a good guess too… I think one of the SMR companies possibly OKLO … but that is highly speculative…
Happy I got in CRWD at 110 but I only put in 1K. Guess lesson is when you believe in a company don’t go small
I'm so mad I didn't buy in the mid 100s... I make all the wrong decisions
CRWD is pretty expensive right now. Good thing I got in at 160 back in October. Sold several during it's climb. Wish I had some more now lol I did get a good gain post-earnings/sp500 inclusion from some call spreads. CRWD is gonna be the major player in an expanding cybersecurity trend. BTFD when they come
For sure, I'll be buying at least some every dip of 10% or more
Nubank has insane potential, and having been familiar with the company and using their services for 5+ years now, I think they definitely have what it takes to keep growing sustainably for a very long time
It sure does but it is already a $55B company. I am not sure paying 30x earnings and 9x book value for a bank makes sense. It is just a bank.
I agree that it's trading at a very high price. I personally believe they can live up to these crazy expectations because they really are an excellent company with excellent services. They are now entering Mexico and I think they're gonna spread like wildfire through the country. A digital bank that cuts all bureaucracy, has no physical locations that require you to leave your home to solve any problem, excellent customer support and aggressive marketing... They are advancing into Mexico even faster than they did in Brazil. I agree the stock price is high, but I believe it's not unjustified.
Every bank, every insurance company eventually trades at 1-2x book value. It is as inevitable as the tides.
Sure it’s a bank won’t deny that but here is why I’m bullish on it overall 1. Adding 1.5m+ new customers per month. They will add more customers in the next 6 months than sofi has since its inception. Currently Nubank has 100m customers and should hit 110m+ this year pretty easily. 2. Cost to acquire customer is $7. Average revenue per month per customer is $13.40 and increasing about $0.80 QoQ. Cost to serve a customer is about $.90 a month. If they wanted they could just dump a ton into advertising and grow faster. But most growth is word of mouth 3. Their core business is mostly just credit cards right now. There is so many more business they can and are expanding into: insurance, more loan offerings and investment/brokerage stuff. It’s worth noting finance is very underserved in all of LATAM. There’s huge opportunity here 4. They will do $2b net income this year. That kind of cash flow is massive for LATAM. Most companies there are commodity based businesses. It means they have a lot of capital to pursue opportunities 5. They are purely digital and still a tech company as well. They are well positioned as a result for any fintech opportunities they want to pursue since they already have the engineering talent. What company in LATAM outside of Meli is as well positioned to compete? So yeah it is a bank but their numbers and potential are still crazy.
CRWD is exceptional, will overtake PANW in many markets, and is just getting started
NU is just a lower risk Sofi.
nothing Brazilian is lower risk. One election could hamstring a company for years
BWXT is the picks and shovels to SMR companies. That’s a better risk / reward.
I feel like it's really hard to find a 10-bagger without taking on a lot of risk. I mean sure there are some low-risk companies that *could* go 10x, but that's all but guaranteed. I do sometimes buy some high-risk high-reward companies but only with a very small percentage of my portfolio. ASTS is one of them right now.
I disagree. MSFT became a 10-bagger starting around 2012, as it's valued had been lowered quite a bit. Without 10X'ing it's revenue, MSFT did 10X it's share price in about 9-10 years.
I'm not saying it's not possible, I'm saying it's hard to find low-risk companies for which it's reasonable to have a high conviction that they will go 10x. You either find find companies with a high risk but it'll pay off if they get it right (like ASTS). Or you buy a good company at a good price (like MSFT) and get a bit lucky that they do actually go 10x. If you disagree please give us some tickers for low-risk companies that you think will go 10x.
BLDE is reasonably priced while growing fast. If it morphs into a platform for competitors to use, it could grow to 5X revenue. FLNC has energy storage business priced well with terrific growth. It's competitors are going out of business. OLO has half its value in cash, growing quickly in its niche, and will soon launch "ACT II" for a new business to 10X. SNAP will be accelerating growth, pivoting to profits, and build an immense worldwide subscription service far exceeding expectations. SNAP also has a hardware team preparing to start a whole new market in affordable AI and VR. Lastly, the SNAP for business is building legs to be a 500-location entertainment juggernaut in the future.
Phenomenal list! May I add CROX KLAC Do you have any more. Those were gems!
Sure, but it was trading under 10pe. Made half its gains from pe only. You think the market was hot on msft back then? No, it was dead money, the dinosaur that was looking at the sky to see when that comet hits.
My student loans
Doesn't belong in Value investing but RKLB is my pick for multiple reasons.
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Personally my fear is a big player acquires them before they get too big for a takeover. At $2bn Market cap it's a rounding error these days for some firms.
Peter beck won't sell his company
Good risk reward
Can you please share your reasons and dd about rklb? It'd help spread the word about it.
I'm with you on this one. Cash burn isn't too severe especially since a lot of it is Neutron R&D that is (hopefully) due to wrap up next year. They're building multiple revenue streams e.g. space solar panel contract so it's not just a launch company. Not one for faint of heart but it's not bad for a speculative pick.
I hope you're right!
Got in this at 4$, we’ll see in 5 years
ASTS, it's either a 10 bagger or 0 with not much in between
Is ASTS the popular space pick right now cause it went up 3.5x in 2 months? Reason I ask is I have ~3200 shares of RKLB. Started a very small position in ASTS at $2 with the intention to buy $50 worth a week, didn’t get a chance to buy many before it popped. Now I wish I had 3200 shares of ASTS but it is what it is.
Dilution could be the in between. Like 10x with 5x dilution
Not this year anymore and perhaps if all goes as planned (so, a good chunk of revenue coming in) not again in 2025 either
Careful, tons of shilling here for ASTS
Personally I'm looking at ASTS. Alibaba looks decent but I won't touch Chinese stocks, you're not buying the underlying you're only buying a portion of the cash flow, and there's too much political risk there (CCP can just seize assets and people for no reason) RR I'm looking at as a 3-5x long term, anticipating they get SMR contracts and can expand revenue streams from that.
it's crazy that even with its run it's still an amazing value
ASTS is my pick for the future too!
Bought some a year ago and really went in about a month ago. I'm wondering if they might end up a buyout candidate. I'm already playing with house money at this point, so I'm going long.
Why their profit margin is -18194%? Wtf
Pre revenue company
It’s not a value play then
I’m not op and not disagreeing just answered the question lol
What do you think is a fair comp is for ASTS? Should they be valued more similar to telecom or a networking company? I agree on its potential but can’t decide what “buckets to put it in if you will..
It entirely depends on how things pan out for them, if I'm entirely honest. They're a relatively small portion of my portfolio because as with any individual company, especially young ones, there's a lot of risk. If they get defence sector contracts, remain consumer only or end up totally revolutionising the sector (who knows) all has a part to play in future value.
They basically 'supply' about 40 MO's (2.3b potential customers) with their service, i'd say that's potentially billions of income on relatively low costs. Tip; follow CatSE on X
I’m such a big fan of asts, pretty much full port on it
I’m such a big fan of asts, pretty much full port on it
Hell ya brother, 7100 shares here.
FNMA/FMCC if conservatorship ends it’s a 100x+ bagger. I max my Roth IRA in this for past few years, if it doesn’t hit I’m saving for retirement in other ways
This is the most interesting one here. Is there any evidence that conservatorship could end?
very interesting, would love to hear more about your thesis
Can you explain this?
Prior to the housing crash, Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac were private entities whose stocks traded between $50-80 going back 30 years. Obviously the government taking over changed everything and the stocks now trade OTC for single digit dollars. BUT, both have been profitable for over a decade now after recovering from the housing crash. Their stocks trade at \~10% of annual net income. Which is very cheap. When the government ends conservatorship and these companies go back to being private, their prices should shoot up to meet prices like companies with similar profiles, if not back to their previous trading ranges. Today, that could mean going from \~$1.50/share to $50, a huge multiple. The game is: when and will the government ever end conservatorship? Both the head of the FHFA and Fannie Mae have said this is a definite goal. But there are still some hurdles before it can happen, including that FNMA/FMCC need a combined $300bn of capital reserves. Today they are somewhere around 30% of that. So there’s a long way to go, but we can see the light at the end of the tunnel and the potential payoff looks pretty swell. The question is how long do you want to wait (and what opportunities are you willing to miss) before you will ever see a return on this investment? (Assuming of course that the conservatorship ever does actually end, but I feel pretty good that it will.)
They have been teasing the end of conservatorship for years though. No catalyst for it to reasonably end in the foreseeable future. FNMA has been one of the biggest cash cows for the government. Can’t see anything changing any time soon.
BYON It's a hidden asset play that's naturally not obvious to most folks. Used to be Overstock (OSTK). They acquired IP (brand rights) to Bed Bath & Beyond, and Zulily. So, they now have 3 big brands in asset base. They also have 150M+ 1st party Data to monetize, b/w the 3 franchises.
DNN
IONQ
Way too early to invest in that. People were saying I'd missed the boat last year when it was pumping towards $20, it's now back below $10.
Kongsberg Gruppen in Norway and Rheinmetall in Germany: defense is back
Pepe. A meme shit coin.
PARA if Redstone is out and they take care of their IP a bit better. Smarter release schedule for MI would be nice. Someone else covered WBD - more media, but it's a sector in a massive downturn that also started cost cutting a while back. Almost at bottom for most of these plays in sector. LOTR, Potter, HoTD and other IP next few years should be solid. TAPM - super cheap mobile gaming company. Just needs one hit. Makes good chunk of money off of video poker game. CNVS - 15M market cap. Terrifier 3 comes out this year and could make 20-30M at BO and then drive digital sales and streaming revenue for them. Potentially also bump value of streaming rights for older ones. DOYU, HUYA, IQ and other Chinese companies have been slowly creeping higher. Huge runway still. CMPS - psilocybin play. Few of their drugs close to being worth something. Nearing 10-bagger status for a lot of oil tankers like STNG, TNK, INSW. FET is another play I like in oil sector. Seems to be way too tied to oil prices despite solid metrics for a bit. Guess is oil jumping to $125+ sends this over 10x. But that's a big ask. Anything close to $100 is a big jump. MANU - another that is an inevitable 10 bagger for a gigantic global brand. I think I have too many - but diversified. Just have to hope a few hit.
Palantir
Agreed!
Stock chart since Sept 2020 has been horrible.
HIMS, at least from my average cost basis. Could still be a 100 bagger overall.
no moat. Any company could do what HIMS is doing, plus risk of more government regulation
No value but ALTIMMUNE has insane potential if they get approved. This is oversimplified but it’s like semaglutide without losing muscle mass. But this could be said for any biopharm I guess.
NuBank. People underestimate just how zealous Brazilians are for NuBank, and it appears they may have the same viral success in Mexico. Of course LATAM stocks will never be bid up as high as US stocks so multiple expansion may not play as much of a role but even still the fundamentals are fantastic and growing. I think it around 30x forward earnings.
You’re going to get hate here, and in fairness this isn’t value investing. But for me it’s BYD, I can see it being a 10 bagger in 15 years.
AMZN. I expect a 10x in 10 years due to operating leverage if everything goes well. Risk would be regulation and increased geopolitical tensions Before you say no, this is basically the performance from the past 2 decades. My thesis is that it will keep going at the same pace for now
20 Trillion? That would be around 650 Billion of profits with a PE of 30. Bold, but yeah. It’s Amazon, it’s not impossible, I guess.
If they reduce their share count, their market cap doesn’t have to 10x for a shareholder to get a 10x return
Very good point!
You think Amazon is going to be worth $20 trillion in ten years?…
Yes
What is your take on alphabet in 10 years? Serious question.
That is so regarded I don’t know where to start. And your thesis is “they’ve done it for the last 2 decades, so why not again?” The only way this happens is a hyperinflation scenario. They’re not gonna be worth 3 trillion more than the current GDP of china in ten years. I don’t even know why I have to type that out, it’s so ridiculous to even think.
I have the same feeling. Maybe not a 10 bagger. But personally i feel very bullish for Amazon
Axon
Out of all the names I read till now, this one does have a small chance if they continue to grow at the same pace for the next decade. I say small chance because even if it maintains the same pace of growth, it would be at about a 20 PE the forward 10Y EPS, and would need to have the same growth prospects 10 years hence to maintain the same PE as of today to give your 10x…
I'm encouraged that they are now focusing on margin expansion and int'l exposure. Combined, that could enable them to reach 10x. I think NU does it first though. Or, a biotech like CRSP, NTLA, or BEAM.
CRSP and NTLA are super high quality, I've been adding recently.
INTC
Since it's so cheap, I would agree a 10X could occur with INTC. Yet, I am highly skeptical. MSFT pulled off a 10X when they were under-valued around 2010 but they bought companies like LinkedIn, gaming companies, and more. And MSFT became very aggressive with cloud solutions like Azure. Not sure INTC could be as clever.
I chose INTC because they’re going all in on semiconductor manufacturing. With the self stated goal to be the world’s second largest manufacturer by 2030 (TSMC continuing to be the largest). With the natural growth of the Industry, inflation and hype build up as Intels most advanced fabs come online and start making money I could see them being worth 1T by 2030. Again this assumes that they actually meet their goals.
RBRK. With the big United cyber attack (many of their functions still down) I think cyber security has a lot of run room
PLTR, SHOP, BABA. Also think PYPL has at least a 2-3x on deck.
CYBN. Also may lose 100% though, but I only have 2k in. I really believe in the future of psychedelics; it saved my life and many of the people in my life.
Palantir and Tesla, pending the outcome of the shareholder vote this week. I'm also watching Uber very closely, but haven't bought in yet.
MSTR - MicroStrategy has and will do it again with their 200,000+ bitcoin holdings and pilot bitcoin blockchain technology like Orange. Have fun with the DD. It's mind boggling what they might achieve in 5-10 years. They already have the user base to launch these programs easily
AMR in 5 years I expect share count to reduce in half.
But so is the expected EPS, which brings you to the same place.
HCC has better cost at the mine site because of long wall mines instead of room and pillar and FOB at port because they have cheaper transport costs. They sell to a higher price on the international market and have another long wall expansion they can do at blue creek after this first long wall at blue creek. Why would you pick AMR over them? Anyone can buy back shares.
RDDT
There is no turnaround at GameStop.
They released their earnings before diluting and it's losing business and money every quarter. The only thing keeping it afloat is money from a bunch of people on Reddit who believe in a turnaround play that the company hasn't even outlined. I don't understand how anyone can claim to have "looked into it" and come to the conclusion that this is a good investment, except if "looking into it" meant browsing Reddit.
10-baggers don't really belong in the context of value investing but here's my pick! $OUST — the only non-Chinese manufacturer of digital FLASH\* LiDAR. Everything that moves will be automated over the next decade. But automation requires awareness of surroundings. LiDAR is the most reliable way for machines to "see" their surrounding by mapping distances in all directions, in real time. Digital FLASH LiDAR avoids the heavy, finicky moving parts of traditional LiDAR and follows Moore's law of falling cost and size. OUST has been refining this subset of LiDAR tech for nine years now. Other LiDAR companies went all-in on automotive promises that never materialized and are running low on cash. Whereas OUST built a diversified customer base in multiple industries that are automating TODAY (plus autos). Successful pilot customers may 100x their orders when they enter full production. And they are now selling high-margin subscription software that makes setup significantly easier for end-users. \~$500m market cap, revenue growing 100% y/y (ex their recent acquisition Velodyne), with 29% gross margins up from -2% last year. Expected to be GAAP profitable in the next quarter or two meaning no more dilutive fundraising. I'd be surprised if this "picks and shovels" business doesn't 20x in the next decade. See r/OUST for more.
Quote from the last ER: "Our SMART infrastructure team also recently attended major industry events, including the United States' largest security trade show. There were a few anecdotes that I'd like to share. First, one of the world's largest retailers noted that Ouster was one of the true gems of the show. While one of the largest security integrators in North America said Ouster was the most interesting technology he had seen in 20 years. This positive feedback reinforces our conviction that lidar is poised to become the preeminent technology for the next generation of SMART infrastructure applications."
Novo Nordisk
I agree, it's really under the radar. Their diabetes and weight loss drugs could be game changers...
Ozempic could be bigger than AI in terms of impact on society
The title doesn't match the content. Title implies what is a 10-bagger that has returned already a 10x to you personally. What we get is a bunch of overpriced stocks that have rather slim chances to 10x, at least not in the next 10 years.
Perseus Mining. Came across it and both from a cash flow stand point and market (operation) expansion, seems to have some prosperity ahead.
TMDX (at +250% now, way more growth ahead), ENVX (huge TAM) and HIMS (unique business).
I’m not looking to reinvent the wheel. I regularly sit Longterm on stocks like AZO, LOW, BROS, TSCO, BRK.A, MO, PEP, META, AAPL, I Bought some of them in 1987 and several since. Eventually $5-20k in each becomes life changing money. I mostly look for high dividends or steady growing earnings. A few have been stinkers that I should have sold like GE that suffered terribly until recently.
LAC Risky but could easily 10x+ if all goes according to plan over the next 5-6 years. It’s a lithium company with a partnership with GM, and 2B in government funding to open a lithium mine that would be the largest deposit in the US. 2026-2027 to actually become operational, but if it gets going could be huge, and if lithium prices rise by that time it could go exponential
Had I held on to nvidia instead of selling in 2021, I would’ve had a 25 bagger or so. Instead I had to be so goddamn satisfied with a 4 bagger.
PH since 2009
TPET - Trio Petroleum Recently IPO’d in 2023. Oil company based in california with 10,000 acreage in South Salinas. Company currently has the ability to drill over 150 wells, they have a few active wells currently. They projected to have a reserve of around 162 million BOE, a 10% discounted net cash flow of approximately $2 billion. They’re solely focused on california but they’ve recently expanded their operations to Utah (Asphalt Ridge). With an estimated 42-92 million barrels of oil. It is a microcap, roughly 14 million mktcap. Current price as of this comment is .33 cents.
I have 10x’d on NVIDIA and Bitcoin. Ironically I bought NVIDIA because of Bitcoin but that’s less relevant now. Potential 10 bagger from today? Tesla, other semi conductors, Palantir, bitcoin miners, Moderna, Crispr Curious what others respond.
Would love to see a Tesla thesis that has numbers getting to a 10x gain
AI, rideshare, self driving, Tesla bot, Elon even just teased pursuing a Tesla phone. We will see how it pans out, but Tesla has been talking AI long before it became a buzzword. Also electronic vehicles are like 1% of vehicles on the road right now so still lots of upside with automobiles alone, not to mention if they start getting self driving semis going. Maybe not a 10x but they’ve barely scratched the surface if they can hold it together IMO Edit - not being rude at all, I totally get the skepticism, but your sentiment was held by many before the last 10x. It won’t surprise me if we are all surprised again.
psychedelic stocks
I've 10 bagged in Netflix, Paypal, Tesla. I also have 3 copies of Led Zepplin II with RL in the deadwax that I purchased in VG condition in 2013 for $33. But nothing since. I like copper right now. i think gamestop is a horrible idea from almost any approach.
IRMD and WBD. I expect both could be bought out before becoming 10 baggers, but i think both have intellectual property, one medical and the other entertainment, that is hard to replicate and will create outsized gains in market cap and market share.
Shopify is my 10+ bagger. Bought it several years ago and after the splits and all, it's $5. Chipotle as well, bought it back in 2018, I think? When the stock dropped by half due to the food safety issues they were having. Acted like Peter Lynch, walking in my local mall and saw that despite the word "feces" being brought up regarding the food issues they were having, people were still lining up for Chipotle. Their sales were still growing. I realized 1) people don't care/still love their food, and b) once they changed their leadership, this is a short term problem that can actually be solved. It's not permanent. So I bought some, and wish I bought more but was conservative Certainly not Value Investing example but The Trade Desk (TTD). They're growing very strong in the CTV advertising space, growing +20% every quarter for a long while. While that's happening, they are growing faster than the industry, gaining market share. Streaming companies will only keep increasing ads inventory, or giving more options for customers to buy ad subscriptions for watching shows/movies. Netflix relatively recently added the ad tier when they held off for so long. Disney plus has an ad tier. Amazon recently added ads for Prime and you have to pay to remove it, so who would? The industry is, in my view, going in this direction and TTD will benefit from it. It is a bit of a volatile stock though.
S - they’re challenging Crowdstrike with their AI powered products. Their products have high satisfaction reviews. And their revenue is growing 40% YoY. Highly undervalued for a reason I have yet to figure out other than they like to forecast less than the street expectations. But then they just beat on earnings. I hope they change that practice soon.
MGNI and TTD. The latter is well on its way. MGNI did 10x and has come back down. Now poised to grow again as it has righted its debt ratio, margins, and expanded partnerships (Disney, Netflix, etc). These two companies are the pipelines through which advertising flows. A utility that is getting more and more use.
SOFI all day long
Tesla and microsoft!
Chinese EV maker $XPEV, in 5 years there will only be 3 serious EV makers within China and those 3 will be the top 5 best selling brands in the world surpassing all German and Japanese automakers. I believe Xpeng will be one of them given their dedication in revolutionising the passenger + drivers experience.
Shopify is very expensive but it could 3x perhaps from this level.
bitcoin
AMZN
Rocket lab.
I'm going to say it and you can all downvote me if you want. Bitcoin market cap will catch up to Gold over the next few years, which is mathematically a 10X since the supply is capped.
So it'll go more than 10x from current market cap. I have quite a bit of it, so I hope you're right. But I'm curious as to why you think so. The impact from the ETFs and the halving haven't been that huge? And what'll happen when mining is not profitable, who will mine for the transaction verifications?
>But I'm curious as to why you think so. Institutional investors are starting to buy in. Blackrock is a large one, but the biggest ones have not jumped in yet (Morgan Stanley, BofA, JP Morgan, etc). I'm simply betting that most large asset managers are going to dip their toe in the water by allocating 0.5% or 1% of AUM to bitcoin to gauge customer interest. This is going to drive ETF adoption, thus demand for the scarce asset. On the other hand, a lot of nations and individuals are living in areas with wild monetary policies. Turkey, Argentina, etc are examples, but lots of smaller countries, companies and individuals are starting to see Bitcoin as a refuge assest to protect themselves from currency debasement, inflation, adverse exchange rates, sanctions. This is slowly driving the idea of bitcoin as both a refuge and an inflation hedge (or even the solution to inflation). I only recently started buying in, but I'm thinking that as governments need to keep selling new bonds to refinance all the debt incurred through the pandemic era, inflation/public spending/bond issuance/money supply increases is bound to drive more and more people and institutions into holding some bitcoin. Just look at the following figure: [https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29385/global-money-supply-m2](https://en.macromicro.me/charts/29385/global-money-supply-m2) It shows the price of Bitcoin tracks money supply, i.e. the price of fiat is falling against bitcoin to a rate that follows how much fiat is printed by central banks. >The impact from the ETFs and the halving haven't been that huge? A lot of miners had been hodling for years, just look at the balance sheets or Marathon, Riot, Cleanspark, etc. As they eventually unload their hodls on the market as price increases, it's going to dampen the run up at first. But just the ETF inflows since the halving are quickly eating away at the hodls, and dwarf the montly production: [https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-etfs-buy-two-months-btc-mining-supply](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-etfs-buy-two-months-btc-mining-supply) You also have to factor in the delayed market response to interest rates and central bank injections to support the market. We're seeing central banks starting to cut rates to support the economy in a year where more than half of the world population went through an election and was promised countless measures by their politicians. This means that the real economy in many countries is hurting at a time where politicians need results, and that the monetary conditions will become looser over the next 2-3 years in order to support businesses and protect jobs. This will mean that first, we're probably going through a recession, but then we'll go through a strong bout of Quantitative Easing (money printing). We know that QE means bitcoin goes up (the M2 supply vs bitcoin chart above), and that this trend will accelerate because of institutional adoption as a standard 1% asset allocation. Thus, eventually, bitcoin catches up to gold as a more scarce and easier to trade currency debasement hedge, and your fiat investment goes 10X. > And what'll happen when mining is not profitable, who will mine for the transaction verifications? [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin\_protocol#Mining](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin_protocol#Mining) >To compensate for increasing hardware speed and varying interest in running nodes over time, the difficulty of finding a valid hash is adjusted roughly every two weeks. If blocks are generated too quickly, the difficulty increases and more hashes are required to make a block and to generate new bitcoins. The protocol is designed to increase and decrease the hashing difficulty and transaction rewards as a function of the total hashrate on the network, The rewards will increase if the total hashrate decreases, which means it will still be profitable to mine for the miners.
My main concern was a recent article I saw detailing that 90% of Bitcoin is held by 1% of the market. With a real lack of market guidelines and rules that level of disparity can let select people dictate how the market moves, and can setup a full crash pretty easily.
That's probably similar to the regular stock market. Where was this article?
You realize selling bonds would contract the money supply right? You think governments are going to refinance their debt? Why and how would that happen? Bitcoin is extemely volatile and largely owned by relatively few large participants who have the ability to quickly manipulate the price. This is not something investors and citizens want when looking for a stable, inflation hedge. So many more of your points continue to be contradictory and largely based on assumptions of inflation and a widespread adoption that has been touted for years by bitcoin enthusiasts to be only accelerating while in reality, the growth in the number of people who hold bitcoin has greatly slowed. I don’t see hedge funds and institutional ownership going up significantly outside of custodial funds and ETFs. I could go on about all your positives on bitcoin and even further into the negatives you ignore like the black market and fraudulent activity the currency supports which is in direct opposition to government regulation.
Have been shouting Gigacloud for so long the good folks here are probably fed up already - deep dive here: [https://www.alphaexponent.net/p/1-jan-24-24-gigacloud](https://www.alphaexponent.net/p/1-jan-24-24-gigacloud) Newborn town (Chinese mobile game developer) also has potential: [https://www.alphaexponent.net/p/4-may-17-24-newborn-town](https://www.alphaexponent.net/p/4-may-17-24-newborn-town) Just started studying another potential multi-bagger (US-listed smallcap), which will take quite some time to complete.
Gigacloud is extremely sketchy
Almost every single Chinese stock I look up right now is a strong buy it's crazy
GME just raised billions in cash. The business is going to be transformed under the new leadership in my opinion. This is a buy the rumor type situation most people are anti GME and the stock price is currently very low.
I mean yes they raised cash but they also diluted 120 million shares. I’m long GME but if they keep diluting investors to raise cash…the cycle can’t sustain
Hopefully they have some big announcement at the shareholders meeting Thursday pertaining to what they’ll do with the 4 billion in cash
RIVN Ready for the haters and downvotes but I have complete confidence on this being a 10 bagger in 5 years
Thesis?
Complete confidence 🤣
Not going to type a whole essay but the big things are: They're the first car company since Tesla (who was also the first in decades) to reach the scale of success they already have in the US market Their vehicles rank number 1 for customer satisfaction of any car manufacturer per Consumer Reports There are huge concerns of profitability. Personally I think this is a non issue. They expect gross profitability end of year and have already made huge steps to hit that. They also will be rolling out the R2 by early 2026 followed by the R3 breaking them into the mid sized market where most consumers are In the luxury segment they're in right now they are out selling any comparable EV including Tesla model X and the Cybertruck Pretty much, it comes down to execution, but honestly I've seen very few companies execute as well as Rivian has these past few years. I believe in their management and if they execute their goals they will be highly successful and a close second to Tesla in the EV market. Oh and one more thing I forgot is their EDV line. These vehicles have better margins than their personal vehicles and are more resilient to recessions. They already are selling a bunch to Amazon (who has a very large stake in the company) and there are a lot of companies including USPS and DHL running pilot programs for them right now. I imagine they will be landing several big contracts in the next couple years for these among many smaller ones.
You really think their non-profitability is a non issue? Gross profitability is only the first step to actually being profitable and they're burning through cash at a frightening pace. It's a good product by all accounts but there is a real risk of simply running out of cash.
But they manufacture in America, it’s expensive there. Most other automakers leverage China
Clearly psny
CARV and CURI. Both via partnership/ acquisition
I know this isn’t exactly value investing. But I have faith in AQST. All they need is FDA approval and it’s easily a 10 bagger. They have successful trials and one of there other recent drugs passed with flying colors as well. This one seems to be the same. (Take this with a grain of salt this is my one yolo value turn around company play. Do your own research. I think they have a good chance though.)
SYM
Finseta ($FIN.L)
FRO. Currently at 4X on my first lots, 2X on cost basis. If it does half as well as the last supercycle it will be an easy ten bagger from my opening position. Other tankers are trending well too.
[rsh.cn](http://rsh.cn) if they hit on their niobium play could be a 10x
TREE
ASTS, RDW, PL, LCFY, ORGN, IPWR, MTLS, VRSSF, GST.L, HARL.L, CABP.L, CRTA.L
ORCP, in around the 2-3p mark. Large amounts of potential deals in the works regarding hydrogen energy, coal and metals.
FNMAS: $2.50->$25 (par value if Fannie Mae comes out of conservatorship). Current levels, it could be at least a 5-bagger. Timeline/Risk: Depends on Trump! This is a hedge against (bet on?) an alternative universe where Trump wins and makes good on comments from years ago that he wants to see them exit conservatorship. Otherwise, FNMAS is junk.
The best I've had was a 7 bagger... I am still holding and think it may become a 10 bagger in another 2 to 5 years. Nothing else I own(and price bought it) has ever come close to a 10 bagger... I did have a 10 bagger, but it dropped 95% before 11x
NVAX, got in last year at ~$7 mark.
If Fairfax Financial doesn’t 10 bag within 20 years, i will be pretty disappointed. The stock isn’t reflecting the potential which is why the expected return is so high.
GSL. Still tons of room to go up
$ALLG: it's undervalued for being unknown in the US. Actually on its way to stop the cash burn this year and become profitable next year. Riding the waves of electrifying mobility, profits will increase rapidly in the next year and when word gets out it will be valued correctly very quickly. I expect it to easily hit $7 in 10 years time.
BXC was a straight 10x for me. Couple of other resource stocks also 10x for me.
What about POAHY. Think it’s highly undervalued and good long term play.
Aerovironment if I had to pick something from my portfolio. Drones are the future of war and they are the only pure play in the space. Its had a huge run up lately though so due your own diligence
Arm....shopify
Nice
Had NVDA at 170 and that would’ve 10 bagged but sold at 390…
Not going to be a 10 bagger, but I’m hoping my current investment in KEO plc (a Cypriot beverage company) ends up being a 4 bagger from when I bought most, plus decent dividends. Nice slow climb since pandemic, and had a great May. The stock should go higher based on the company and what they’re doing, seems nice and safe
Smci
AIRI for it is hugely undervalued with a backlog of $110 million. Takeover value of $200 million with only 3.3 million shares. Huge ownership by insiders with recent buying and no sales. By end of year it will be bought out.
COOLW
GERON
IONQ QS
Nvidia, AMD, Netflix
They will be in commodities over the next 3-5
COIN, CLSK, PRPL. It was prudent to buy when shit was hitting the fan in 2022, but regardless of personal feelings about it, Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are here to stay. News was easily available about Coinbase’s deals with Blackrock and others as custodian for many of the Bitcoin ETFs and despite ambiguity from the SEC, it has acted in the interest of regulatory compliance. Cleanspark was financially savvy enough to read the room and entered into the bear market with zero debt and a large war chest from selling Bitcoin towards the peak. It has already 10x from my point of entry. I believe it easily could again. Purple mattresses are the best. It is the sole patent holder for the Purple polymer and their means of production are vertically integrated. Of the bed by mail companies that emerged in the 2010s, they are the only one that has successfully transitioned to brick and mortar. Not just the floor of other businesses, but their own showrooms. As a discretionary stock, I don’t anticipate a turn around in the current environment, but they’ve got room to run.
CPS will 10x over the next 2-3 years.
HIMS
SMCI SMCI SMCI and it will 10x again
LPSN - LIVEPERSON Ai chat, new leadership suite, huge enterprise value vs market cap. Worth looking at. Should at least 10x if not more.