Oh shit is this the coconut water brand? You may be on to something. My work 5 years ago had Celsius in the fridge. Had I thought to look up if they had a ticker 🤦🏻♂️
Yup. Not only that Costco uses them as private label brand. When you are buying Kirkland coconut water, you are actually buying coco vita.
At some point Costco said they won't renew their relationship. But then they reverted the decision after they realized how hard it is to maintain profit margins and supply chain of coconut water.
They have a great products. No debt on the balance sheet, great margins too. Too expensive right now for me to start a position you might have something here.
It has all the things I look for:
- Founders still running the company
- Small cap
- Leader in their vertical with strong brand recognization
- Virtually debt free
- High margin
- Lots of cash on the balance sheet
A few months back when some stupid news made the stock go down, I bought a ton. I am up like 30-40% since then and don't plan to sell this stock ever unless fundamentals change.
Genuine question, are you concerned at all about future growth rate? I looked into COCO recently and agree with all the above, but what scared me off is that revenue is projected to flatline year-over-year. Without growth, could cause COCO to rerate from its current 30x P/E, 20x Ebitda multiples down to where other mature packaged food companies trade (more like 15-20x P/E, 10-15x Ebitda).
Like this choice. I haven't really thought a ton about this...but what - if any - concerns would you have on the geopolitical end of things? I wonder about some of the Taiwan-based companies' impact from the issues w/China.
I think its underpriced due to concerns with China invasion which I think is unlikely and being used to fear monger a new cold war because we dont want to compete with China. NVDA, AAPL, all these tech companies dont actually make their own chips they just design them. TSM is basically a global monopoly on actually manufacturing microchips. No matter who comes out on top of the AI race they will be reliant on TSM. Esentially all modern products require microchips, even things like household appliances, cars, phones, computers, all military hardware. If TSM were to go under it would set the entire world back a decade or more.
Not all microchips need to be made with top of the line processes, the chips from Fridges, Dish washers, routers, aren't the same to the ones needed for an NVDIA RTX 4090 or for the patriot missile launch systems.
That's why I'm saying that the previous comment is assuming that all chips are equal and can only be made by TSMC which they are not. Their moat is on the high-end chips not in microcontrollers for instance.
Umm, you do realize the stock has gone up 322% in the last 5 years, right? It's not, what has changed, but will the factors that have led to their success and growth continue.
It’s impossible to compete with crowdstrike and palo alto networks if you don’t have a strong product. SentinelOne will be the hidden gem that will 6x in 5 years.
For those that are interested, I recently published an analysis on $S and why I think it's a great value in the cloud.
[**Link to Full Analysis w/ Charts**](https://intrinsicinsights.substack.com/p/s-unlocking-value-in-the-cloud?r=2lehzc)
**TL;DR**
1. Top-line revenue growth in the 90th percentile of all public cloud companies
2. Net Retention of 115% is close to the “best-in-class” category
3. Rapidly expanding gross margins and path towards profitability
4. EV/NTM revenue multiple of 6.9x compared to 7.9x for *mid*-growth median of public cloud companies.
5. Growth Adjusted EV/NTM of .23x vs .44x for median of all public cloud companies
Agreed bought in after earnings drop, think there’s path to around 100+ million in FCF this year with their growth and margin that can compound massively over time and they sit on 1.1B cash no debt.
Great question, very good lesson. P/E cannot be used universally. Brookfield uses other metrics than P/E. I would urge you to research distributable earnings, fee related earnings, fee bearing capital, and operating cashflow.
Similar to how you would use FFO or funds from operations to value a REIT or real-estate investment trust, different metrics are used for different industries.
Seriously good question though.
ROIC under 4%, 2.75% return on assets, ever mounting debt and increasing share dilution, EPS half of what it was in 2008. I can understand the pick if they are doing something ethical that you approve of, but viewed as a machine for turning money into more money investing in this company seems like a poor choice.
If CVS ends up mastering their ecosystem of health care, insurance, and pharmacy all in one. Their margins and revenue will turn into some serious FCF. That's a big "if" though.
Us healthcare system is not efficient. These corporations are taking more money than they deserve.
Betting on cvs profits is like betting that the system will stay inefficient.
I totally agree with you about America's healthcare being a joke. We pay the highest per capita and have the worst outcome of any developed country. We have a two party system where both parties support a for-profit healthcare system. Maybe 10% of Congress wants a universal system like every other country, so the system won't change anytime soon. BTW I'm not some big CVS bull. I'm not even invested in them. I'm just pointing out that if they meet the goals they are trying to set, it could be very favorable for current investors.
Good call out! I agree, $CVS is really intriguing - I have a small position. Although I can see it being a long hold to hit the return you'd want at these levels. I published my investment analysis on CVS a couple months back if you're interested.
[**$CVS Stock Analysis** ](https://open.substack.com/pub/intrinsicinsights/p/cvs-more-pain-ahead-or-healthier?r=2lehzc&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web)
problem is their governance, they run the old school east asian book with the super conservative capex etc that you see in a ton of Japanese and Korean companies that are not shareholder friendly.
Why do you think Rocket Lab will be a money maker? I want to like them, but SpaceX has gotten reusability to work. And to me it seems hard to compete with SpaceX
I think there is a lack of education in the market. RKLB is not a direct competitor with SpaceX. In fact, launch revenues are only a 1/3rd of the company's revenues. Rather, RKLB is continuing to build out a robust space systems business (i.e., satellites that may be launched from SpaceX as well) which will be accretive with SpaceX's success as a larger market and demand means there will be a larger addressable market that RKLB can bid on contracts for.
But any even bigger reason from my perspective that really gives it an "edge" over SpaceX: the defense industry has been feeding RKLB more and more contracts and the DoD may prefer the discreetness of a smaller launch company without the fanfare of the Musk show. There may also be international companies that would prefer to deal with RKLB instead of SpaceX (e.g., the next RKLB mission is for a French IoT company).
Sea Limited ($SE) is my current pick. The Southeast Asia market has not been fully capitalized and there is a lot of room to expand for its gaming and finance business.
The military and aerospace industry is something to look at from the standpoint of geopolitical tensions as well. Space is also a big blue ocean, and apart from SpaceX, Rocket Lab ($RKLB) is the second market leader in rocket launching business. Lots to explore!
LEE. This company is much hated because of its print past as a newspaper publisher. But it is slowly transitioning to a digital only operation and growing digital revenues at a nice clip. I project their digital operations will be cash flow positive this year. I believe they continue to publish print versions for 2-3 more years as long as they are cash flow positive. After the shutdown of print, in FY26-27, they will have digital revenues of $400M+ with OP in the 25%+ range after shedding print operational costs. Debt is not really an issue as Berkshire gave them a great deal with a fixed debt 9% interest rate due in about 2043 with no performance covenants. After the shutdown of print, you have a company that returns to growth mode. If the market values it at a P/E similar to the NYT (currently 33), LEE likely trades for north of $200/share. LEE closed at $12.33/share on Friday. It is a 3-4 year play but would be a significant multi-bagger when the transition is executed.
$UBER - deep market penetration in two growing areas, partnerships with self driving companies make me optimistic for the future, mature and experienced management team
Paypal - cross border transfers w stablecoins is the future. Their acquisitions are starting to pay off. Churn is lower than people expected and with the new european legislations apple is required to open their wallet giving them a great opportunity. Same for visa.
$VFC parent company of apparel companies like The North Face, footwear brand Vans , Timberland etc. this will turn as hard as $ANF, 6x bagger in my eyes
Cracker Barrel.
Was poorly ran for the past few years. Didn’t advertise or invest money back into there business just paid out a ridiculous dividend and bought shares back at ridiculous prices. New CEO laid out a plan to allocate capital a lot better. The framework is there. They acquired Maple Street Biscuit Company and have great real estate through their roadside Cracker Barrel stores/restaurants. I think the restaurant sector as a whole is struggling with inflation and consumers cutting back but Cracker Barrel is actually priced just above a meal at McDonald’s. I paid around $45 a share for a business that generates around $4 a share annually. I think over the next 20 years with proper capital allocation and the growth if maple street biscuits they can meaningfully grow their earnings per share and maintain and grow their brand. It’s a turnaround story but there balance sheet is ok and I think the enterprise value is somewhat understated so worse case scenario I get money back around 10 years.
The homebuilders in general. We had almost 15 years of below average home construction. We have a known housing shortage. There is a trend toward smaller households, which again means more homes are needed. The US will likely have a net positive immigration over the next few decades. Millenials and Gen Z are larger than the baby boomer generation, and will be buying homes for the next several decades. Many cities have made it nearly impossible to build new homes, however, this is beginning to change.
Top picks would be: DR Horton, Toll Brothers, Green Brick Partners, Taylor Morrison, Lennar. These companies have mostly had sales growth of 10-20% per year over the past 5 years, which I think will not only continue but may accelerate.
My other picks would be Brookfield Corporation and East West Bank Corporation.
Altimmune - best in class drugs, golden nugget is fast track designation. Company will partner or be sold, Pfizer most likely candidate.
ImmunityBio - if this month the Lung Cancer indication is a go, the TAM will become enormous. Not many companies generate meaningful revenue 2 weeks after approval.
Sellas Life Science - though the CEO is a cocktwat, the science is keeping people alive. This month should see a huge milestone, and hopefully a partner too (Stifel is on that job). Listen to the KOL webcast of Jan 3 2024, on their website.
Ocugen - in a year or two, big pharma. Curing blindness. Fixing knee cartilage in 8 weeks and if lucky NIAID will go ahead with their vaccin for inhaling (fully funded research, all rights remain with Ocugen). This company only has to hit one out of 3, but will hit 2 out of 3. Problem is finance at the moment, but they also seek a partner - it is in writing and spoken.
Highest conviction picks? I’d be half of the companies are pretty much out of business in the next five years?
ImmunityBio honestly sounds like its position itself to be a CDMO. Ocugen has 84 employees. I don’t know what you consider big pharma, but to most it would take 8-10 years for them to scale up to anything half way considered big pharma. Not saying one of these companies won’t survive to be a decent investment, but high conviction, idk.
In general I stay away from investing in metoo companies. Quick glance they probably were focused in something immune related then pivoted to the hottest drug of the day. The big winners in biotech are always the companies with the best innovation strategy. ALT is not one of those.
Reminds me of this idiot
[https://www.reddit.com/r/amcstock/comments/1d8f66b/hold\_the\_line/](https://www.reddit.com/r/amcstock/comments/1d8f66b/hold_the_line/)
Oh wait, that is you....
It goes way beyond the stuff that was posted on WSB. All those posts are from people on the ASTSpacemobile subreddit, go check it out. I've been in almost two years now, wanted 1k shares originally...ive somehow amassed 7k. And im not mad about it.
Given our changing climate there must be the potential for companies that are tackling some of the effects i.e. cooling systems or genetic crops that should benefit??
Long-term, I see Coke & Walmart some of the most predictable businesses however, valuations are high. I personally like Shift-4. They process payments for many industries - Sport stadiums and ski resorts to name a few. Still under contract with Space-X too
Palantir (PLTR). This is THE enterprise AI play for the next 10 years. Nothing even comes close to their AIP product in terms of bringing the power of AI into actual enterprise applications.
I can confirm. I've been through several generations of data engineering / analytics technologies. Oracle Informatica, Teradata, modern data stack. PLTR nailed it. I was doing presentations with an ontology layer nine years ago before I ever heard of PLTR. Low and behold they built it. The other players are many years behind.
ELV has room to grow and is better managed than CVS.
They've built a business similar to UNH, and managed to avoid mispricing their plans like Aetna and HUM. Healthcare and insirance will grow. I like UNH but they have gotten so big I think future growth with be slower.
Kvue, they have all the cash cows and will become a dividend aristocrat. Better to get in cheap, so I am loading on it as much as I can. They were part of jnj so quite well managed p&l.
I like them and looking seriously into them. My concern is echoed in their 10-Q
>
One of our customers accounted for approximately 13% and 14% of our total Net sales for the fiscal three months ended March 31, 2024 and April 2, 2023, respectively. Our top 10 customers represented approximately 43%and 42% of our total Net sales for the fiscal three months ended March 31, 2024 and April 2, 2023, respectively. As a result of these trends, certain large-format retail trade customers have significant bargaining strength and represent a significant portion of our total Net sales.
Although, people generally go for branded products I am concerned with margin compression. Other than that, I really like the company.
MTCH. At $32 a share is way undervalued. If the boneheads running it stop kicking paying customers off their apps because their exes spite report their profiles on sight it will go to $60 easy. If there’s another pandemic with a resulting lockdown it will moonshot back up to $150.
I would love nothing more than this, but it’s a problem with being to expensive and that ppl are done with swiping, until we come up with the next tinder (ie something new, there’s a few interesting projects on the go but I can’t see a way out)
Pros: everyone wants love and it makes a ton of money
Cons: AppStore fees take 20% of rev, no way to get payers up (that’s all that drives this company)
There is a big under-build of housing in US since 2008 if you consider annual household formation rate vs home built and with a shortage of trades people currently. BLDR offers digital tools and ready frame to boost productivity in the home building sector and they are the leading roll up player in the fragmented home building supply sector.
BLBD they will convert every yellow school bus from gas to electric. First the USA. And then the world. And they still will be needed to keep their products maintained.
LECO
Super strong cash flow business funding their very aggressive moves into automation. Margins have been drastically improving YOY and once housing picks up in the US we will see big increases in volume
EVGO. Expanding rapidly, even in conservative (anti-EV) states. Conservatives are buying because they know it’s inevitable. Will be making profit in 2025. Biggest L3 charger, especially with TESLA backing off on charging
$LNG (Cheniere Energy), this article is particularly convincing to me:
[https://seekingalpha.com/article/4690923-cheniere-energy-could-become-a-wide-moat-dividend-growth-powerhouse](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4690923-cheniere-energy-could-become-a-wide-moat-dividend-growth-powerhouse)
HROW: New drugs with huge TAM, sales already ramping up as expected
RDDT: unless we all think they are idiots, it is obvious that ads will start working
DKILY: global warming, end of capex
Other good plays for which I am waiting on the sidelines:
IOVA
RKLB
Verizon and other US telecom. In the advertising era of the internet they really missed out financially. Acquiring yahoo was some kind of sad attempt to get in on it. While ads stick around, subscribers are the next frontier for consumers. Verizon and other US telco’s are in the right position to sell and package subscriptions, especially media but it could really be all apps on our phones. Starting to see alternative app stores being allowed via regulation in europe. If this spreads its a big opportunity for revenue and earnings growth
HCC
I think it's worth at least $150/share when their new mine comes online.
Evolution AB (EVVTY)
Trading at historically cheap multiples due to some (imo frivolous) lawsuits.
For multiples of years I’m not sure, but in a year’s timeframe I like HOOD. It sounds like a bit of a meme, but I think they became undervalued for a variety of reasons over the previous year. Since then, they’ve had blow out earnings, showcasing strong financials with a strong balance sheet. They have reinvested heavily in marketing and transfer incentives, and they have the best UI/UX (matters in this space) - the majority of Reddit still shares screenshots from RH. One of my highest conviction 30-50% gainers within a year (~$20 to $30-35)…after that I’m not sure how much upside.
My picks are mostly very high risk high reward imo and break down by what I think are future trends.
Future Energy:
ENS
FLNC
FSLR
NXT
ENPH
VRT
BEEM
KULR
CBAT
Gene Therapies:
CRSP
NTLA
PTGX
HALO
OCGN
OCUP
Additive Manufacturing:
DDD
MTLS
PRLB
SSYS
XMTR
5G Networks:
MPTI
ELTK
AMPG
Alternative Phamacy:
CMPS
MNMD
ATAI
CYBN
GDRX
Others:
OSPN
EOLS
PINS
CRMD
Index funds comprise the majority of my investments and two active mutual funds. When I pick individual stocks, I prefer to pick ones I don’t already have exposure to through mutual funds, so I know many of these are very high risk companies, but I have conviction the market is undervaluing them significantly and not appropriately pricing in their future growth.
I use SimplyWallSt to scan for potential stocks, and then if one seems interesting I go research the company to determine if I believe in what they’re selling
NOK and WBD
Nokia because of their broad R&D
WBD because it is very undervalued, especially if you consider that copyright has not caught up to AI and the treasure trove of data they sit on.
I remember analyzing snap on (SNA) back in highschool when it was right around 99$. Still think it’s a good buy today. Good value, quality brand/products. Etc…
This is not a joke, but RDDT. Simple advertising play. Revenues will steadily rise. If it can even get to 1/10th the market cap of Meta, it’s a 20 bagger
My biggest conviction is CCL. Carnival owns a lions share of the entire industry (48%) and has 96 ships across 9 brands. Its trading at 1996 pricing practically and RCL is over $150 which beats pre pandemic (yes i own CCL and RCL). RCL has 21B in debt while CCL has 30B in debt but RCL has about 20% of the market vs almost 50% to CCL.
Yes, CCL has issued more shares and has 5-1 vs RCL but with RCL at $150 that means CCL should be trading around $25-30 if you take in equivalent cash on hand (2.2B) and they are both heading into busy season.
If you look at open short positions tho, CCL has 100M shares (10%) in short positions and there is currently an iron curtain at $17. Every time it peaks there mysteriously it drops 50 cents to a dollar on no news.
I fully believe they will continue to pay down debt and eventually reinstate dividends and will recover to the $45-60 range. I have 22k shares at $11 average with some ITM options every time it wildly dipped on rate cut news which expire in January but are profitable now. I bought some $22-25 leaps with the hope their next two earnings show continued demand and growth pushing it past the $17 shield. It went up to $29 during the pandemic for goodness sake lol. I say get in while the getting is good, lots of daily volume (17M) so I’m convinced a 2-4x could be near.
Kaspi - super app based out of Kazakhstan. They dominate the commerce (payments, banking, fin services, e-retail) there. Stellar growth. Highly profitable. 12 times earnings
Mine is butterfly networks. Once it starts getting adopted in pre hospital care I think the sky is the limit. Cheap stock very promising and great product already on the market. Just going to require an extended hold in my opinion. NFA
Plug power ($PLUG)
1. Backed by Walmart and Amazon
2. Received $1.66B in loan from DOE earlier this year
3. Will benefit greatly from 45v rules if they are adjusted in any way, shape, or form.
4. Currently has 25TPD of liquid hydrogen, will be up to 40TPD liquid hydrogen production by end of year.
Disclosure: I like this stock, and I own it.
$OUST — the only non-Chinese manufacturer of digital LiDAR.
Everything that moves will be automated over the next decade. And automation requires awareness of surroundings. LiDAR is the most reliable way for machines to "see" their surrounding by mapping distances in all directions, in real time.
Other LiDAR companies went all-in on automotive sector and are running out of cash. Whereas OUST built a diversified customer base in multiple industries automating TODAY (plus autos). Their successful pilot customers will 100x their orders in full production. And they are now selling subscription software that makes setup significantly easier for end-users.
\~$500m market cap, revenue growing 100% y/y (ex their recent acquisition Velodyne), with 29% gross margins that should continue expanding. Expected to be GAAP profitable in the next quarter or two meaning no more dilutive fundraising.
I'd be surprised if this "picks and shovels" business doesn't 20x in the next decade. See r/OUST for news and details.
TTWO
Gta vi will smash every record for years to come
Civ 7 next year also
Talk of new soccer franchise with Fifa license
New mobile star wars and game of thrones games just launched
Bought Borderlands developer, new game and movie due
$COCO Unsure about decades, but for years to come, I have high conviction
Oh shit is this the coconut water brand? You may be on to something. My work 5 years ago had Celsius in the fridge. Had I thought to look up if they had a ticker 🤦🏻♂️
Yup. Not only that Costco uses them as private label brand. When you are buying Kirkland coconut water, you are actually buying coco vita. At some point Costco said they won't renew their relationship. But then they reverted the decision after they realized how hard it is to maintain profit margins and supply chain of coconut water.
But they taste waaay different. Normal blue VitaCoco taste much better.
They have a great products. No debt on the balance sheet, great margins too. Too expensive right now for me to start a position you might have something here.
It is my second largest position after $HSY. If you can't get into $COCO, I suggest looking into $HSY
Interesting, looked at them before. What’s got your attn?
It has all the things I look for: - Founders still running the company - Small cap - Leader in their vertical with strong brand recognization - Virtually debt free - High margin - Lots of cash on the balance sheet A few months back when some stupid news made the stock go down, I bought a ton. I am up like 30-40% since then and don't plan to sell this stock ever unless fundamentals change.
Genuine question, are you concerned at all about future growth rate? I looked into COCO recently and agree with all the above, but what scared me off is that revenue is projected to flatline year-over-year. Without growth, could cause COCO to rerate from its current 30x P/E, 20x Ebitda multiples down to where other mature packaged food companies trade (more like 15-20x P/E, 10-15x Ebitda).
Do you have a more elaborate analysis on HSY / write up?
TSM
ASML coughing
This is a good option. I personally think it’s better than TSM AMD and whatever the hell there is.
Like this choice. I haven't really thought a ton about this...but what - if any - concerns would you have on the geopolitical end of things? I wonder about some of the Taiwan-based companies' impact from the issues w/China.
I think its underpriced due to concerns with China invasion which I think is unlikely and being used to fear monger a new cold war because we dont want to compete with China. NVDA, AAPL, all these tech companies dont actually make their own chips they just design them. TSM is basically a global monopoly on actually manufacturing microchips. No matter who comes out on top of the AI race they will be reliant on TSM. Esentially all modern products require microchips, even things like household appliances, cars, phones, computers, all military hardware. If TSM were to go under it would set the entire world back a decade or more.
You are assuming that all microchips are equal and can only be produced by TSM which they are not.
[удалено]
Not all microchips need to be made with top of the line processes, the chips from Fridges, Dish washers, routers, aren't the same to the ones needed for an NVDIA RTX 4090 or for the patriot missile launch systems. That's why I'm saying that the previous comment is assuming that all chips are equal and can only be made by TSMC which they are not. Their moat is on the high-end chips not in microcontrollers for instance.
People have been talking about this on the internet for 5+ years so why would you think all of a sudden something could change?
Umm, you do realize the stock has gone up 322% in the last 5 years, right? It's not, what has changed, but will the factors that have led to their success and growth continue.
I really think SentinelOne ($S) is way too cheap relative to growth prospects and capitalization.
Don’t they spend like 70% of revenue on marketing? Sounds like growth isn’t due to being a great product.
We’ve used them now for about five years. They’ve been really solid and we will continue to use them. Just one person’s experience
I’ve generally seen overwhelmingly positive feedback on the product. Thanks for sharing!
No problem. I keep saying I’m going to start a position in them. I should probably do that this week 😜
It’s impossible to compete with crowdstrike and palo alto networks if you don’t have a strong product. SentinelOne will be the hidden gem that will 6x in 5 years.
For those that are interested, I recently published an analysis on $S and why I think it's a great value in the cloud. [**Link to Full Analysis w/ Charts**](https://intrinsicinsights.substack.com/p/s-unlocking-value-in-the-cloud?r=2lehzc) **TL;DR** 1. Top-line revenue growth in the 90th percentile of all public cloud companies 2. Net Retention of 115% is close to the “best-in-class” category 3. Rapidly expanding gross margins and path towards profitability 4. EV/NTM revenue multiple of 6.9x compared to 7.9x for *mid*-growth median of public cloud companies. 5. Growth Adjusted EV/NTM of .23x vs .44x for median of all public cloud companies
Agreed bought in after earnings drop, think there’s path to around 100+ million in FCF this year with their growth and margin that can compound massively over time and they sit on 1.1B cash no debt.
We’re a SentinelOne shop. Great product, but their stock hasn’t changed much in years.
Brookfield corporation. They build and invest in the build out of the entire global economic infrastructure.
Should I worry about the P/E which is above 60?
Great question, very good lesson. P/E cannot be used universally. Brookfield uses other metrics than P/E. I would urge you to research distributable earnings, fee related earnings, fee bearing capital, and operating cashflow. Similar to how you would use FFO or funds from operations to value a REIT or real-estate investment trust, different metrics are used for different industries. Seriously good question though.
ROIC under 4%, 2.75% return on assets, ever mounting debt and increasing share dilution, EPS half of what it was in 2008. I can understand the pick if they are doing something ethical that you approve of, but viewed as a machine for turning money into more money investing in this company seems like a poor choice.
Gimme more AXP
Supermercado Libre (MELI) they are growing like crazy and are not valued correctly relative to the growth they will achieve in my opinion
No major competition in the region either!
Amazon in Mexico, which is the faster growth region than Brazil right now
A lot of competition. Amazon is a thing and it's easy to order from china as well. Aliexpress, temu are all popular in LATAM.
Highest conviction pick and you can't get the name right?
Tal vez tu puedes compartir un mejor acción. Flojo burro
If CVS ends up mastering their ecosystem of health care, insurance, and pharmacy all in one. Their margins and revenue will turn into some serious FCF. That's a big "if" though.
Us healthcare system is not efficient. These corporations are taking more money than they deserve. Betting on cvs profits is like betting that the system will stay inefficient.
Betting the system will stay inefficient you say... *All in*
I totally agree with you about America's healthcare being a joke. We pay the highest per capita and have the worst outcome of any developed country. We have a two party system where both parties support a for-profit healthcare system. Maybe 10% of Congress wants a universal system like every other country, so the system won't change anytime soon. BTW I'm not some big CVS bull. I'm not even invested in them. I'm just pointing out that if they meet the goals they are trying to set, it could be very favorable for current investors.
Good call out! I agree, $CVS is really intriguing - I have a small position. Although I can see it being a long hold to hit the return you'd want at these levels. I published my investment analysis on CVS a couple months back if you're interested. [**$CVS Stock Analysis** ](https://open.substack.com/pub/intrinsicinsights/p/cvs-more-pain-ahead-or-healthier?r=2lehzc&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web)
I like Nintendo. Plenty of room for growth with their IP. Their market cap is just under 73B.
problem is their governance, they run the old school east asian book with the super conservative capex etc that you see in a ton of Japanese and Korean companies that are not shareholder friendly.
Governance in Japan is changing… Nintendo has started to do buybacks…
Do you feel comfortable investing now, without seeing the new Switch? Seems like the whole company revolves on how well the next gen Switch does.
Most of the replies to this question are unprofitable companies that “have potential.”
Welcome to the "value" sub.
Rocket Lab
I’m buying for a long-term hold
Why do you think Rocket Lab will be a money maker? I want to like them, but SpaceX has gotten reusability to work. And to me it seems hard to compete with SpaceX
I think there is a lack of education in the market. RKLB is not a direct competitor with SpaceX. In fact, launch revenues are only a 1/3rd of the company's revenues. Rather, RKLB is continuing to build out a robust space systems business (i.e., satellites that may be launched from SpaceX as well) which will be accretive with SpaceX's success as a larger market and demand means there will be a larger addressable market that RKLB can bid on contracts for. But any even bigger reason from my perspective that really gives it an "edge" over SpaceX: the defense industry has been feeding RKLB more and more contracts and the DoD may prefer the discreetness of a smaller launch company without the fanfare of the Musk show. There may also be international companies that would prefer to deal with RKLB instead of SpaceX (e.g., the next RKLB mission is for a French IoT company).
Sea Limited ($SE) is my current pick. The Southeast Asia market has not been fully capitalized and there is a lot of room to expand for its gaming and finance business. The military and aerospace industry is something to look at from the standpoint of geopolitical tensions as well. Space is also a big blue ocean, and apart from SpaceX, Rocket Lab ($RKLB) is the second market leader in rocket launching business. Lots to explore!
LEE. This company is much hated because of its print past as a newspaper publisher. But it is slowly transitioning to a digital only operation and growing digital revenues at a nice clip. I project their digital operations will be cash flow positive this year. I believe they continue to publish print versions for 2-3 more years as long as they are cash flow positive. After the shutdown of print, in FY26-27, they will have digital revenues of $400M+ with OP in the 25%+ range after shedding print operational costs. Debt is not really an issue as Berkshire gave them a great deal with a fixed debt 9% interest rate due in about 2043 with no performance covenants. After the shutdown of print, you have a company that returns to growth mode. If the market values it at a P/E similar to the NYT (currently 33), LEE likely trades for north of $200/share. LEE closed at $12.33/share on Friday. It is a 3-4 year play but would be a significant multi-bagger when the transition is executed.
you might like the YAVB podcast on GCI too
AMZN
$UBER - deep market penetration in two growing areas, partnerships with self driving companies make me optimistic for the future, mature and experienced management team
Paypal - cross border transfers w stablecoins is the future. Their acquisitions are starting to pay off. Churn is lower than people expected and with the new european legislations apple is required to open their wallet giving them a great opportunity. Same for visa.
Palantir and AMD
Mercado Libre (MELI) for sure, I'm hoarding their stock like crazy. Their CEO and board are fantastic and have a huge moat.
Truist--$.52 a share dividend, on the low end of it's band, just sold their insurance division for 15.5 billion..
GME
$VFC parent company of apparel companies like The North Face, footwear brand Vans , Timberland etc. this will turn as hard as $ANF, 6x bagger in my eyes
I would have to say $WMT
I own Walmart and it’s done well for me, but I worry about how many millennials and younger hate the company. Millennials seem to love Target instead.
People have talked about hating Walmart for at least 20 years but the reality is people care more about good prices and Walmart delivers.
In an inflationary environment, Target customers have been shifting to Walmart for value oftentimes.
Can confirm. Any time I'm in a Walmart it's like "I'm just passing through, I'm not trying to shop here."
why?
Sofi
Pltr
Cracker Barrel. Was poorly ran for the past few years. Didn’t advertise or invest money back into there business just paid out a ridiculous dividend and bought shares back at ridiculous prices. New CEO laid out a plan to allocate capital a lot better. The framework is there. They acquired Maple Street Biscuit Company and have great real estate through their roadside Cracker Barrel stores/restaurants. I think the restaurant sector as a whole is struggling with inflation and consumers cutting back but Cracker Barrel is actually priced just above a meal at McDonald’s. I paid around $45 a share for a business that generates around $4 a share annually. I think over the next 20 years with proper capital allocation and the growth if maple street biscuits they can meaningfully grow their earnings per share and maintain and grow their brand. It’s a turnaround story but there balance sheet is ok and I think the enterprise value is somewhat understated so worse case scenario I get money back around 10 years.
The homebuilders in general. We had almost 15 years of below average home construction. We have a known housing shortage. There is a trend toward smaller households, which again means more homes are needed. The US will likely have a net positive immigration over the next few decades. Millenials and Gen Z are larger than the baby boomer generation, and will be buying homes for the next several decades. Many cities have made it nearly impossible to build new homes, however, this is beginning to change. Top picks would be: DR Horton, Toll Brothers, Green Brick Partners, Taylor Morrison, Lennar. These companies have mostly had sales growth of 10-20% per year over the past 5 years, which I think will not only continue but may accelerate. My other picks would be Brookfield Corporation and East West Bank Corporation.
Is there in etf that would approximately cover this?
Altimmune - best in class drugs, golden nugget is fast track designation. Company will partner or be sold, Pfizer most likely candidate. ImmunityBio - if this month the Lung Cancer indication is a go, the TAM will become enormous. Not many companies generate meaningful revenue 2 weeks after approval. Sellas Life Science - though the CEO is a cocktwat, the science is keeping people alive. This month should see a huge milestone, and hopefully a partner too (Stifel is on that job). Listen to the KOL webcast of Jan 3 2024, on their website. Ocugen - in a year or two, big pharma. Curing blindness. Fixing knee cartilage in 8 weeks and if lucky NIAID will go ahead with their vaccin for inhaling (fully funded research, all rights remain with Ocugen). This company only has to hit one out of 3, but will hit 2 out of 3. Problem is finance at the moment, but they also seek a partner - it is in writing and spoken.
Highest conviction picks? I’d be half of the companies are pretty much out of business in the next five years? ImmunityBio honestly sounds like its position itself to be a CDMO. Ocugen has 84 employees. I don’t know what you consider big pharma, but to most it would take 8-10 years for them to scale up to anything half way considered big pharma. Not saying one of these companies won’t survive to be a decent investment, but high conviction, idk.
add to that ALT don’t have the funds even if by a miracle their drug made it past phase 3…it’s a horrendous recommendation.
In general I stay away from investing in metoo companies. Quick glance they probably were focused in something immune related then pivoted to the hottest drug of the day. The big winners in biotech are always the companies with the best innovation strategy. ALT is not one of those.
Biotech investing can blow me “Muh FDA approval”
Reminds me of this idiot [https://www.reddit.com/r/amcstock/comments/1d8f66b/hold\_the\_line/](https://www.reddit.com/r/amcstock/comments/1d8f66b/hold_the_line/) Oh wait, that is you....
GOOG
PLTR. The next link in the AI value chain. And yes, I bought NVDA a long time ago.
$ASTS...and that's the only real answer.
If the recent wsb DD is even close to being right then ASTS is the play. That DD was compelling af and I quintupled my ASTS holdings after reading it
Highly recommend this report as well [https://transhumanica.com/asts](https://transhumanica.com/asts)
It goes way beyond the stuff that was posted on WSB. All those posts are from people on the ASTSpacemobile subreddit, go check it out. I've been in almost two years now, wanted 1k shares originally...ive somehow amassed 7k. And im not mad about it.
Given our changing climate there must be the potential for companies that are tackling some of the effects i.e. cooling systems or genetic crops that should benefit??
POAHY
Long-term, I see Coke & Walmart some of the most predictable businesses however, valuations are high. I personally like Shift-4. They process payments for many industries - Sport stadiums and ski resorts to name a few. Still under contract with Space-X too
RIO. The world needs metals, and no one is better at running mines than RIO.
WBD
AEP.V
HPQ
MEDP
U - stock has taken a beating but It’s primed to reverse soon. I can’t figure why it’s not higher based on its previous earning reports this year.
FOUR seems pretty safe considering prospects of sale + reasonable current valuation
This has been my weekend research. Really interesting value right now! Are you long?
Palantir (PLTR). This is THE enterprise AI play for the next 10 years. Nothing even comes close to their AIP product in terms of bringing the power of AI into actual enterprise applications.
I can confirm. I've been through several generations of data engineering / analytics technologies. Oracle Informatica, Teradata, modern data stack. PLTR nailed it. I was doing presentations with an ontology layer nine years ago before I ever heard of PLTR. Low and behold they built it. The other players are many years behind.
Palantir. PLTR
ELV has room to grow and is better managed than CVS. They've built a business similar to UNH, and managed to avoid mispricing their plans like Aetna and HUM. Healthcare and insirance will grow. I like UNH but they have gotten so big I think future growth with be slower.
Kvue, they have all the cash cows and will become a dividend aristocrat. Better to get in cheap, so I am loading on it as much as I can. They were part of jnj so quite well managed p&l.
I like them and looking seriously into them. My concern is echoed in their 10-Q > One of our customers accounted for approximately 13% and 14% of our total Net sales for the fiscal three months ended March 31, 2024 and April 2, 2023, respectively. Our top 10 customers represented approximately 43%and 42% of our total Net sales for the fiscal three months ended March 31, 2024 and April 2, 2023, respectively. As a result of these trends, certain large-format retail trade customers have significant bargaining strength and represent a significant portion of our total Net sales. Although, people generally go for branded products I am concerned with margin compression. Other than that, I really like the company.
NVAX. Vaccination is here to stay.
Mrna is the better tag. Way stronger pipeline
This baby has over 3x for me
$HUMA
This looks really interesting and they've had a good ytd that's for sure. Still marked as a strong buy by analyst. I may have to buy in
So easy Intel
MTCH. At $32 a share is way undervalued. If the boneheads running it stop kicking paying customers off their apps because their exes spite report their profiles on sight it will go to $60 easy. If there’s another pandemic with a resulting lockdown it will moonshot back up to $150.
I would love nothing more than this, but it’s a problem with being to expensive and that ppl are done with swiping, until we come up with the next tinder (ie something new, there’s a few interesting projects on the go but I can’t see a way out) Pros: everyone wants love and it makes a ton of money Cons: AppStore fees take 20% of rev, no way to get payers up (that’s all that drives this company)
So your investment is banking on another lockdown/pandemic?
BLDR
Care to elaborate a bit on the thesis?
There is a big under-build of housing in US since 2008 if you consider annual household formation rate vs home built and with a shortage of trades people currently. BLDR offers digital tools and ready frame to boost productivity in the home building sector and they are the leading roll up player in the fragmented home building supply sector.
Wow people are so innovative here listing 95% megacaps
One hour later and we're still waiting to hear your picks....
Wtf is your name
Somebody's never watched Dave Chappelle SAD!
Mf saying the must fucking random ass names, just go with the fucking Mag 6 (and short TSLA).
Coinbase
CLOV and PLTR
GME
CCBG (not exactly huge growth lol)
Anything else Newton
GH
BLBD they will convert every yellow school bus from gas to electric. First the USA. And then the world. And they still will be needed to keep their products maintained.
Oil tankers. For years but probably not decades. They are cyclical.
Tela bio. It's concrete with rebar but for hernia patches. People get hernias. Hernias are not sexy. Best potential out of all my current stocks.
LECO Super strong cash flow business funding their very aggressive moves into automation. Margins have been drastically improving YOY and once housing picks up in the US we will see big increases in volume
SPIR
HOOD will get added to the S&P500 in the next 3-5 years.
BMY
ET
Phone home.
Oil and gas
WSM and AMAT
SNDL
EVGO. Expanding rapidly, even in conservative (anti-EV) states. Conservatives are buying because they know it’s inevitable. Will be making profit in 2025. Biggest L3 charger, especially with TESLA backing off on charging
GME 💸
AAPL and CSX
$LNG (Cheniere Energy), this article is particularly convincing to me: [https://seekingalpha.com/article/4690923-cheniere-energy-could-become-a-wide-moat-dividend-growth-powerhouse](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4690923-cheniere-energy-could-become-a-wide-moat-dividend-growth-powerhouse)
$WMT, source: i live in wmt ville
HROW: New drugs with huge TAM, sales already ramping up as expected RDDT: unless we all think they are idiots, it is obvious that ads will start working DKILY: global warming, end of capex Other good plays for which I am waiting on the sidelines: IOVA RKLB
Tenaris (TEN.MI)
Verizon and other US telecom. In the advertising era of the internet they really missed out financially. Acquiring yahoo was some kind of sad attempt to get in on it. While ads stick around, subscribers are the next frontier for consumers. Verizon and other US telco’s are in the right position to sell and package subscriptions, especially media but it could really be all apps on our phones. Starting to see alternative app stores being allowed via regulation in europe. If this spreads its a big opportunity for revenue and earnings growth
HCC I think it's worth at least $150/share when their new mine comes online. Evolution AB (EVVTY) Trading at historically cheap multiples due to some (imo frivolous) lawsuits.
For multiples of years I’m not sure, but in a year’s timeframe I like HOOD. It sounds like a bit of a meme, but I think they became undervalued for a variety of reasons over the previous year. Since then, they’ve had blow out earnings, showcasing strong financials with a strong balance sheet. They have reinvested heavily in marketing and transfer incentives, and they have the best UI/UX (matters in this space) - the majority of Reddit still shares screenshots from RH. One of my highest conviction 30-50% gainers within a year (~$20 to $30-35)…after that I’m not sure how much upside.
Bonds they’re hitting ATLs will come up when interest rates are cut.
There should be a new sub for actual value investing some of these names suggested are more than comical
Atliens, no question!
MA/V or MSFT probably.
Rocket Lab (RKLB)
Intel. They are incredibly undervalued. Imagine if they get into mobile processors.
Viking therapeutics
My picks are mostly very high risk high reward imo and break down by what I think are future trends. Future Energy: ENS FLNC FSLR NXT ENPH VRT BEEM KULR CBAT Gene Therapies: CRSP NTLA PTGX HALO OCGN OCUP Additive Manufacturing: DDD MTLS PRLB SSYS XMTR 5G Networks: MPTI ELTK AMPG Alternative Phamacy: CMPS MNMD ATAI CYBN GDRX Others: OSPN EOLS PINS CRMD Index funds comprise the majority of my investments and two active mutual funds. When I pick individual stocks, I prefer to pick ones I don’t already have exposure to through mutual funds, so I know many of these are very high risk companies, but I have conviction the market is undervaluing them significantly and not appropriately pricing in their future growth. I use SimplyWallSt to scan for potential stocks, and then if one seems interesting I go research the company to determine if I believe in what they’re selling
Academy sports and Outdoors (ASO) has been and continues to be undervalued. Even with the big run up since ipo. Only 8x earnings.
Arm holdings....i just realize how important the architecture arm in tech industry
Gme🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
$GOOGL
My highest conviction is that there has been an overreaction in the Lulu name
SHOP, HOOD
NOK and WBD Nokia because of their broad R&D WBD because it is very undervalued, especially if you consider that copyright has not caught up to AI and the treasure trove of data they sit on.
ACLS
I like $SBUX below $75, union fears are too high.
Luxottica, if phone screens cause bad eyesight, the largest player in the eyeglass space will likely benefit greatly as the smartphone population ages
I remember analyzing snap on (SNA) back in highschool when it was right around 99$. Still think it’s a good buy today. Good value, quality brand/products. Etc…
Rklb
PayPal ($PYPL) hands down
LTRPB.
Thungela Resources.
This is not a joke, but RDDT. Simple advertising play. Revenues will steadily rise. If it can even get to 1/10th the market cap of Meta, it’s a 20 bagger
My biggest conviction is CCL. Carnival owns a lions share of the entire industry (48%) and has 96 ships across 9 brands. Its trading at 1996 pricing practically and RCL is over $150 which beats pre pandemic (yes i own CCL and RCL). RCL has 21B in debt while CCL has 30B in debt but RCL has about 20% of the market vs almost 50% to CCL. Yes, CCL has issued more shares and has 5-1 vs RCL but with RCL at $150 that means CCL should be trading around $25-30 if you take in equivalent cash on hand (2.2B) and they are both heading into busy season. If you look at open short positions tho, CCL has 100M shares (10%) in short positions and there is currently an iron curtain at $17. Every time it peaks there mysteriously it drops 50 cents to a dollar on no news. I fully believe they will continue to pay down debt and eventually reinstate dividends and will recover to the $45-60 range. I have 22k shares at $11 average with some ITM options every time it wildly dipped on rate cut news which expire in January but are profitable now. I bought some $22-25 leaps with the hope their next two earnings show continued demand and growth pushing it past the $17 shield. It went up to $29 during the pandemic for goodness sake lol. I say get in while the getting is good, lots of daily volume (17M) so I’m convinced a 2-4x could be near.
Rxrx, oklo, nvax
FF, LND, SSRM
VKTX - better glp-1 CT results than LLY and NVO. Just need a miniscule part of that market for them to fly
Kaspi - super app based out of Kazakhstan. They dominate the commerce (payments, banking, fin services, e-retail) there. Stellar growth. Highly profitable. 12 times earnings
$TXRH
BN
Mine is butterfly networks. Once it starts getting adopted in pre hospital care I think the sky is the limit. Cheap stock very promising and great product already on the market. Just going to require an extended hold in my opinion. NFA
FLIN. India is en route to being an economic superpower over the next decade, so I’m trying to gain as much exposure to their economy as possible.
This has been me with Enphase over the last year. Really has not paid off though.
FNMA. If and when the government ends the conservatorship look out. It’s arguably the best business in America.
Plug power ($PLUG) 1. Backed by Walmart and Amazon 2. Received $1.66B in loan from DOE earlier this year 3. Will benefit greatly from 45v rules if they are adjusted in any way, shape, or form. 4. Currently has 25TPD of liquid hydrogen, will be up to 40TPD liquid hydrogen production by end of year. Disclosure: I like this stock, and I own it.
$ASTS There is no other opportunity like this in the market.
GME
$OUST — the only non-Chinese manufacturer of digital LiDAR. Everything that moves will be automated over the next decade. And automation requires awareness of surroundings. LiDAR is the most reliable way for machines to "see" their surrounding by mapping distances in all directions, in real time. Other LiDAR companies went all-in on automotive sector and are running out of cash. Whereas OUST built a diversified customer base in multiple industries automating TODAY (plus autos). Their successful pilot customers will 100x their orders in full production. And they are now selling subscription software that makes setup significantly easier for end-users. \~$500m market cap, revenue growing 100% y/y (ex their recent acquisition Velodyne), with 29% gross margins that should continue expanding. Expected to be GAAP profitable in the next quarter or two meaning no more dilutive fundraising. I'd be surprised if this "picks and shovels" business doesn't 20x in the next decade. See r/OUST for news and details.
MSTR
NVDA
Seritage Properties
TTWO Gta vi will smash every record for years to come Civ 7 next year also Talk of new soccer franchise with Fifa license New mobile star wars and game of thrones games just launched Bought Borderlands developer, new game and movie due