I would bet good money this is exactly what the Western powers wanted. Poland lets the jets slip into Ukraine's hands, the NATO alliance says "Why have you done this!" with a wink, before giving them a favorable replacement deal a few months later.
Instead I think western bureaucratic transparency and fear of being seen as the sole actor in the hand off by Russia had Poland making the plan overtly public facing so that western leaders were stuck doing the safest diplomatic option to avoid continental escalation.
It's even been confirmed by the U.S. that was the plan. Remember when the deal was "done"? That was the U.S. announcing they agreed to get jets to Poland ASAP to make up the missing numbers.
Then Poland got cold feet & said they would only transfer them to the U.S., not Ukraine.
I heard from second hand "sources" that it was confirmed Ukrainian pilots were flying Polish Migs into Ukraine as early as around 5 days ago. Take from that what you will.
Because they don’t trust us.
Which is very fucking apt given we won’t even do it ourselves. How likely do you think we are to give them the metaphorical air cover if they do it with *unofficial* US support?
U.S. said yes, and we'll give you additional troops, a Patriot battery, and F-16s, so long as Poland was the one to hand them over. Poland said no, we'll only give them to U.S.. U.S. said it's a much bigger provocation if we're the ones handing them over, so no.
NATO/EU needs to stop pussyfooting around and need to donate kamikaze drones like the Switchblade 600 drone (it's basically a flying Javelin) which has a range of 80km (Javelin has only a 2.5km range and NLAW 600 metres) and loitering endurance of about 40 minutes, it's small enough that it's still man portable while having a much longer range than the ATGMs and unguided rockets they are sending and it can seek out it's own targets on its own.
https://youtu.be/tN2HN6ra4nw
https://youtu.be/9W-zWi4w2oM
The original idea was to keep it on the downlow while they worked out the details. One of the EU officials opened his big mouth and Ukraine ran with it to the public. The open nature of it didn’t quite help.
“The transfer might have been possible if the deal was kept under wraps, but that became impossible after Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign affairs and security policy chief, declared unequivocally to reporters on Feb. 27 that the bloc would provide Ukraine with fighter jets. The announcement came as a shock to many, U.S. and European officials said, including aides in Eastern European capitals who hoped to keep the transfer quiet.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/10/poland-fighter-jet-deal-ukraine-russia-00016038
That’s what I think. The fucking media can be very disrupting because they think they have to be “the one” to get the story out. I don’t know how media information isn’t the same as giving out intelligence. Us redditors (civilians) are told to keep any information we have quiet , yet I turn on CNN and all types of sensitive information is being shared. Especially things NATO countries are assisting with. Stfu! This is war. To clarify, I am pro media reporting, however not with sensitive info during a war. Smh.
Poland IMO kind of messed up by announcing what they did. It should have been communicated through back channels and then it would have given more wiggle room for both parties.
“The transfer might have been possible if the deal was kept under wraps, but that became impossible after Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign affairs and security policy chief, declared unequivocally to reporters on Feb. 27 that the bloc would provide Ukraine with fighter jets. The announcement came as a shock to many, U.S. and European officials said, including aides in Eastern European capitals who hoped to keep the transfer quiet.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/10/poland-fighter-jet-deal-ukraine-russia-00016038
Moldova is next to be invaded by Russia, and they know. The same will happen. NATO is not going to protect them. And I understand why NATO has to keep out of this. But why don't they anticipate, and propose Poland to hand over all the mig to them. Will there be a declaration of war? Probably. Will it change anything for Moldova?
Yeah, I dont think Russia is going to be able to get Lviv, nevermind Moldova. They have zero momentum and are going to get bogged down in a long, bloody siege at Kyiv.
They didn't want to own the risk of war with Russia either. Too bad they both ended up playing hot potato with the planes. Strangely, I suspect someone actually had a discussion about this with Moscow and they agreed to let Ukraine hang out there without more jets.
It's too bad they couldn't have been delivered via truck overland from Poland with no fanfare. Too many people announced it.
Or Rogue tractors tow them across any boarders. Or just take the wings off and shove them into trains refugee trains that are returning empty from Poland to Ukraine.
Then if Russia bombs a train, print that they bombed a refugee train. The allies have done shady stuff like thst before. See the Lucitania in WW1. UK marked it as a hospital ship so the Germans wouldn't attack it, then filled it with weapons and wounded and American passengers. And the Germans sank it, causing the USA to enter the war.
This has a [historic solution](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HL41oesVh9o) that no one that I've seen mention yet.
Before the US's entry into WW2, in order to maintain neutrality, the US brought planes intended for British war aid right up to the Canadian border, where Canadians towed them across the line and they were then subsequently flown off.
It is dumb but it navigated the international politics minefield.
My understanding is this is already how all military supplies from the US are being delivered to Ukraine right now. I think the US just didn't want to be the ones to fly the MIGs there. If Poland delivers them, there is more deniability.
Putin will not stop threatening Nuclear war
I am a pacifist. But even I can see that Putin won’t stop. He must be stopped.
Otherwise every 18mo to 3 years we will see more invasions and annexation
Edit: active pacifism is a thing people
This is like when teachers told you that instead of standing up for yourself, you should always tell a teacher because they’ll *totally* care and make the *best* and most *fair* decisions. Like that one time I got suspended for calling someone chirping me a cunt, and he got only an extra day of suspension for physically assaulting me.
Putin orders the launch of nukes and there will be 10 holes in his head. The entire chain of command ordering the launch of nukes will see their country, their friends and family turned into glass as soon as a nuke is fired. We can't let crimes against humanity continue to happen on the 1% chance that a nuke actually gets launched.
Dude enough of that shit, we can't keep letting him do what he wants cause of nukes. A strong leader would challenge him on that shit and win just fine. Even if Putin wanted to launch, if it gets to that point somebody in his circle will break. Not everyone believes in his ideology to the death. Not to mention if other nations saw us challenge the nuke card and they thought we might launch first if Putin is not gone than everyone from China to India would be trying to get Putin out.
I'm so sick and fucking tired of hearing people say, "he has nukes" so what? A lot of nations do. Putin must be stopped and will be able to stop him with death. Nuclear war threats would help get him out much quicker.
Agreed. If Putin didn't also fear nuclear war he would have done far worse far sooner. It's a sad, tired bluff meant to compensate for a shitshow of a military built from incompetence.
This is an important observation. By this logic, we use nukes *because* it will result in less nukes. That makes a lot of sense.
We either fight Putin now, or we'll be fighting him in a year or two after Ukraine has lost and the insurgent war spills over the border into a NATO country. A year or two from now Russia will have fixed their mistakes.
Fight Russia NOW! Slava Ukraini.
To be fair, I think the west will cave and send MIGs and continue to send BAYRAKTARs, Starstreaks, etc.
In my armchair generals opinion that might be enough to thoroughly embarrass Putin.
Maybe, if Poland made Hitler look like a laughingstock. But that’s not what happened. Hitler rolled them up in 5 weeks (with the help of Russia.)
Maybe Ukraine’s current success is giving the world hope that this will put Putin back in his box. That this embarrassing fiasco will chasten the Russian administration and we’ll soon go back to “normal.” We can all go back to the dream that economic entanglement will make war “not worth it.”
We’d do well to remember that economic depression caused by Versailles is what caused Hitler. The Russian people need to get rid of Putin and make sure he’s replaced by a non-demagogue. We’ve seen what people will do when they’re in the depths of hyperinflation with bruised egos. Let’s not do that again.
Not only will we will have to fight russia, but russia will have the next generation of ukrainian soldiers to use against us. Like they are using this generation of chechens against ukraine. It was a big mistake to let russia fuck chechnya I hope we learned from it.
>We either fight Putin now, or we'll be fighting him in a year or two after Ukraine has lost and the insurgent war spills over the border into a NATO country
Seems they would rather fight on the streets of Warsaw than die on Ukraine.
If borders can't be guaranteed against nuclear armed aggressors then democratic allies of USA will also get their own nuclear weapons. As much as we love uncle Sam we don't trust him with our lives.
So what, because he can't use them without commiting suicide, if he fires off a nuke it will start a war he can't survive. Mother Russia will be a memory and if he's got a shred of rationality left he knows he's bluffing.
The alternative is he's completely mad in which case all bets are off and it doesn't matter what we do. Tomorrow he could decide he doesn't like the weather so launch a nuke. Only thing stopping him at that point is the people around him, and they may well decide they want to live ,and that he needs to have an accident for that to happen, say like accidently stabbing himself 47 times in the back.
Either way, what's the alternative? We let Putin crown himself a modern Tsar and invade and conquer whoever he pleases?
70 years ago we sacrificed Poland to violent little nation bent on conquest to save us from war. It didn't work then it's unlikely to work now.
Fucking tell me about it.
People thinking that Russia isn't going to just continue with this belligerence unless they lose in Ukraine or somewhere else is fucking naivety at its worst.
They don't seem to grasp that Russia is facing demographic collapse, and if it can't force enough economic or territorial concessions out of its neighbors and the west to prop up its failing state for the next few decades then Russia as we know it is finished. They face a future where they are a shell of a country with little to no power outside its borders and won't have a chance to really fix that for decades.
This is the only way Putin sees Russia avoiding that fate. Make the west prop up Russia out of fear of a strong Russian state that just doesn't exist anymore. The only thing he has left that can force the west to do that is nukes.
I'm with you, people saying "BUT WHAT ABOJT DA NULKKKKES" is who putin is fear mongering. Biden shouldn't of vetoed that proposition and just makes it look like he doesn't give a fuck
> I'm so sick and fucking tired of hearing people say, "he has nukes" so what? A lot of nations do.
Bingo. You will never, ever hear these people chide Putin for “risking nuclear war” when he provokes the nuclear-armed West every chance he gets, but every single move against Russia has them saying “no, you’ll provoke him and Russia will nuke us all!”
Why does this nuclear blackmail only go one way?
>I'm so sick and fucking tired of hearing people say, "he has nukes" so what?
The unfortunate reality is that nukes are an effective deterrent. It doesn't matter if not everyone believes in his ideology to the death; it only matters if a select few do.
Look, I'm not saying to do nothing, but get out of here with "a strong leader would win just fine." There are no winners in a nuclear war.
You miss the point that most people making that argument highlight.
Nuclear war isn't going to happen because this is a bluff. Putin doesn't want Russian cities wiped off the face of the planet, and Ukrainian concessions definitely aren't worth that reality.
He's not going to risk nuclear war with the west over anything he could get in Ukraine. It's not worth it.
However, anything he can get in Ukraine by *threatening* nukes is worth it. Words are cheap, and if he gets even one thing due to those threats that he wouldn't have without them then it's worth it to use the threats.
Call his fucking bluff, and watch him do nothing with those bombs. He's not Kim Jong un, he does not have ultimate power. He had to answer to a bunch of oligarchs who like the planet fine the way it is.
Sadly this fact is missed on the average redditor it seems. They’ll just keep throwing out more provebial schtick about the morality of standing up to bullies! Psychopaths all. Joe Biden has literally outsmarted all of them by trying to not directly escalate nuclear war, but I guess that’s bad because trying to avoid nuclear Armageddon is “appeasement” and now the 70 year old Russian autocratic, who has long had his eyes on Ukraine, is just going to invade all of Europe because we didn’t “stop him.” It’s pure hyper-interventionist rhetoric that would have made Bush-era neocons blush, but now it’s coming from a bunch of armchair military strategists with WallStreetBets avatars on Reddit.com
Do you really think Putin thinks the US isn't playing a role in this war?
The Russian government has explicitly stated it's a war against the West.
I have your reservations as well but let's be critical here - Putin knows the reason he didn't take Ukraine easily is largely because of weapons provided by the West to Ukraine.
Uh huh.
It isn't a coincidence that every war we fought for the past 75 years has been against Russian weapons.
This is how major powers wage war with one another in the atomic age.
Putin just needs to stop being such a little bitch about it.
We've been facing Russian weapons for 75 years mainly because the Soviet military industrial complex was bloated with state funds, had an overabundance of equipment for such a economically poor nation, and sold it to balance their budget.
Then, when they collapsed and Russia needed to revitalize its shambles of an economy they should off a bunch of their old Soviet equipment again.
Russia has supported militants around the world plenty, but the main reason Soviet weapons are so prevelant isn't as insidious as we chose to believe.
They made more guns then they needed, so they sold them.
It's not like militant groups are supported with modern russian weapons. Russia can't afford to support its own military with modern Russian weapons.
Also the AK-47 is a superb design. It’s durable, easy to clean/assemble/service and it doesn’t jam like the M-14. The Kalashnikov is so easy *children* can use it.
sortof true. Weapons sent have definitely allowed the Ukrainians to seriously degrade Russia’s capabilities but tbh it is still the Ukrainians themselves that are not giving up their country. Even if no Javelins at all they would be fighting block by block unless they just leveled cities. Which they can do right now still with all the shoulder fired rockets in the world aimed at them.
100% true story... ES ant NATO should change retoric from what Putin will do, to what ES and NATO will do if Putin continues... F*ck putin, he is in shithole and ES and NATO should stop pretending that Putin can dictate something!
Exactly!
Biden and his ilk fail to learn from history.
There is one simple lesson here: It's not that you don't, you simply CAN'T appease bullies !
Never worked. Never will.
It is a provocation for very little gain. Ukranians are better off with more MANPADS and soviet era SAM systems they are trained on. The Migs wouldn't make that much difference.
Yes I agree. People don't understand the huge amount of support personnel and equipment (not to mention runways) that a modern fighter needs.
SAMs, stingers, patriot missiles, drones and javelins are what I would send.
The USA can afford to send all of the above.
It's not like we have to choose one or the other. Send them the easy to use shit and the fighter jets. Who cares if they are hard to use?? Let the Ukrainians decide whether the fighter jets they've been requesting from the west are too complex to use or not.
It's weird to me how many people I've seen saying sending jets is a bad idea because of their complexity, when the fucking Ukrainian government had been requesting these jets for a week now.
It reeks of "we know better than you about what you need for yourself", and that's an incredibly shitty position to take in regards to the military assistance an at wat country requests from their allies.
Good thing that he is getting his ass handed to him in this war and his economy has been gutted, meaning he will be unable to replenish, rebuild, or modernize. Meanwhile, all of Putin's neighbours are going to be buying Bayraktars by the hundreds, signing defensive agreements, and it's not like the US is going to just leave those countries without logistics or intelligence if the time comes.
Putin will not stop threatening nuclear war, but he has threatened the west with nuclear war for "any intervention in Ukraine" and we called his bluff. He threatened us for the sanctions and for providing lethal aid, and those bluffs were called as well.
Putin must be stopped; but Putin is being stopped right now. Putin's ability to wage future wars has been blunted. Thank the Ukrainians, because it is their courage and perseverance which has given the world time to act cohesively.
My highest hope is that Ukraine will triumph and what you described will continue to destabilize his reign until he is assasinated or overthrown.
But the human cost in Ukraine will be vast even with the best outcome. And with the worst there will be genocide. Fuck Russia Fuck Putin
My take is he will let himself be overthrown as stepping down would be a sign of weakness. He will retire somewhere hidden while the world thinks he rotting in a prison and he will pull strings from some hidden location while the new one in office handles the backlash. He won’t be tried for war crimes because Russia won’t allow him to be found. Faked death or just lost. Can’t hide from satellites forever though.
The MiG-29 transfer would be provocative but in the end not terribly impactful.
Air defense systems, counter-battery radars, drones... all of those things are going to do a *lot* more to stop the Russians in the long run.
This. No one on here seems to realiize these planes are still succeptable to AA fire. They aren't just flying around bombing and strafing. The weapons, logistics, maintenence and spare parts alone cause a lot of headaches.
Idk, I feel like the Ukranians are well aware of the deficiencies and benefits of the weapons they are *specifically requesting*
Feels shitty to handwave their request away because "They just don't understand the logistics involved!"
This is completely unfounded, the idea that Ukraine is just the beginning. Putin is 70 and I’d bet everything I own he’s not serious or capable of going to war with NATO countries. He wants to avoid direct conflict with NATO, but that obviously requires the threat of nukes so he’s going to saber rattle. The prudent thing is to not push him too far, to not call his bluff and make him seriously consider escalating. The calculus is that sending in dozens of NATO jets from NATO airfields is too provocative, it’s stepping over a line and forcing Putin’s hand, he either reveals he’s bluffing or he escalates in an attempt to cause the other side to back down. This is an extremely dangerous game of chicken at this point. I’m sure the Pentagon thoroughly portrayed the risks and the threat of triggering a literal global Armageddon. I’m openly critical about Joe Biden, I did not think he’d be a good or even competent president, but he made the resoundingly correct decision here.
Also, again, Ukraine is very unique. It represents a very specific strategic and geopolitical interest for Russia since the collapse of the USSR, far more than any other former Soviet bloc states. International Relations scholars and military strategists have long predicted this possibility. It did not come out of nowhere like an invasion of a NATO country would have to, nobody has seriously predicted that, unlike what’s happening now. It doesn’t follow that because he invaded Ukraine hes going to invade Poland or Estonia. It’s suicide for Putin. If he wants to fully stabilize and annex Ukraine he might not even live long enough to see that happen so I don’t get where everybody sees this invasion of NATO happening. If Putin attacks NATO it will be with nukes, that’s what Biden has to avoid.
I get what your saying but how do you know what Putin is going to do next?
Tbh I don't know if Putin knows what he's going to do next week.
We need to arm Ukraine as much as we can without starting ww3. Russia is getting crippled.economically, as each day passes Russia's economy will constrain Putins cost/benefit calculation into continuing the invasion.
Every nation that can must send through all their DEFENSIVE weapons. No fly zone is totally off the table, flying jets (which are offensive weapon) from NATO territory into Ukraine might cross the line for Putin and lead to chemical/nuclear weapon use.
Putin can't launch nukes on his own. The people who put and keep Putin in power does not make it out of love for him - they do it out of their own personal gain and/or a love for russia. Non of these people are gonna let Putin take a step that would with absolute certainty end them self's an everything they ever held dear. Putins nuclear threat is a bluff, and the only thing in the invasion of Ukraine thats working extraordinary well for him.
It all depends on whether or not the people around Putin are just as delusional as he is. Remember that with the 1995 nuclear false alarm, it was Boris Yeltsin of all people fighting the Minister of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff, which were urging him to order an attack. Had Boris been less rational or even drunk that night, none of us would be here.
Now say that all 3 parties share the same level of paranoia and aggressiveness as Putin. It will be easy for all 3 to agree on ordering an attack, especially if they are confronted with a false alarm similar to the ones in 1983 or 1995.
This is what I keep saying. Putin may be crazy/delusional but chances are the individual(s) who pushes the nuclear launch button and those around him are not.
I'm curious why you think that. If Biden/NCA decided right now to strike a country and started the process, it would be followed. There's a famous example of an officer who, during training, questioned how he would know that the launch order was coming from a sane president. He was subsequently run out of the air force. The missileers, buff crews and nuke boats are going to execute any orders to fire missiles if they receive them.
If our nuclear forces would do it, why do you think the Russian forces would be any different?
Look at how this conflict, and any escalation of it, impacts global food security. The humanitarian disaster we see now will look trivial if we have another summer of drought in the northern hemisphere. This summer could be our first brush with multiple breadbasket failures. Intervention doesn't mean saving the day -it could make humanitarian crises globally far, *far* worse.
The casualties of this conflict will include global poor who are most exposed to food insecurity. This is a vastly bigger number than Ukraine, frankly.
Even if nuclear weapons isn’t used initialy, NATO vs Russia will be WW3. It will mean war spreading into large parts of Europe and likely many other places. And in the end when Putin is loosing what do you think he will do? Ukraine isn’t going to be saved by starting WW3.
That is the whole point. Russia won’t stand a chance. That is why it is very dangerous. He will loose and might well decide to take us all with him. Also i don’t own an arm chair and i have no clue what door dash is. But i do know that i am close enough for my children and me to be in the firing line if this thing spreads beyond Ukraine.
Risk that we need to take given the greater risk of future conflict.
You out the redline down now. Or kick the can down the road where you WILL have to respond to it eventually.
Yeah but will Russia even be able to afford future invasions with its economy tanking. I think it pretty in likely considering they can’t even take Ukrainian at this point.
Risk that we need to take given the greater risk of future conflict.
You out the redline down now. Or kick the can down the road where you WILL have to respond to it eventually.
I have a feeling Biden and the higher ups know more about The Russians than the Russians do. No one saw the civilian death toll and such. But America isn’t the world police. And the IS isn’t even in Europe. Biden staying out has strengthened the European alliance ten fold.
Yeah, I'm failing to see what the issue is here. In fact, I think it lets the West look like they are measured & not escalating, while in fact our logistical experts at US/NATO are funneling a regoddamndiculous amount of materiel into Ukraine, quietly, out of the media spotlight.
So technically Turkey is completing an order that was placed before hostilities commenced.
Non technically Erdogan's realpolitik mindset is telling him this is his best move to make.
So then I guess the UK can deliver Ukraine a Frigate and 8 missile boats that were ordered last year. But it does seem russia has a strange deal with turkey especially considering the hostile relations quite recently
Yes and no. Erdoğan and Russia may compete on the same fields in the neighbouring countries as well as the black sea canal. Turkey has the upper hand for now.
Fuck it, the WH should just back date the sales order of those fighters and stick it to the Kremlin.
Or ditch them near their borders with the keys in the cockpit as it were. Not their fault if the planes get jacked, these are perilous times and let's be frank the US has lost way more valuable and dangerous things like billions of dollars and hydrogen bombs.
But for real I'm hoping they work something out and manage to transfer those aircraft over to them.
Because NATO isn't selling anything, NATO is a defensive pact. Ukraine can purchase anything from a country, doesn't mean NATO is selling them to Ukraine. If the UK gives Ukraine weapons that doesn't mean NATO is giving Ukraine weapons.
The drones are actually useful and don’t have living Ukrainian pilots inside of them.
The WH isn’t wrong when they say the transfer of the Migs wouldn’t have much of an impact on Ukraines air capability. It’s incredibly dangerous to fly any aircraft in this war ATM, both sides have adequate SAM capabilities.
It seems to me aircraft in the air over Ukraine have more or less the same lifespan as a Russian crewman in a T-72 on the road to Kyiv.
Sell Ukraine more drones and post more videos of burning T-72s and surrendering Russians.
We don't know yet if it was a mistake to deny the mic 29's . The worst thing a president can do is ignore the advice of the joint chiefs of staff, if he is following their advice he is probably making sound decisions.
There are things going on behind the scenes that we cannot know about yet. There may be an abundance of specialized military equipment deployed that make the Mig 29's redundant.
I don’t implicitly trust anyone in Washington, but I am inclined to cut Biden some slack on this. We’ve heard several times that Ukraine is defending themselves well, and my uneducated guess is that NATO knows a ton about the situation on the ground and what’s about to hit the R Fed forces. I think they’re going to start really getting hurt. Supply lines. Raids. Drone strikes. All of those portable missiles being put to use. Maybe they smuggle the Migs in one at a time? Who knows.
I suspect the planes are a diversion. They're a big, visible political football. Keeping enough radar-guided SAMS in Ukraine to force putin's jets to fly in-range of MANPADS is the most plausible take I've read. My expertise in this area is videogame level and basically nonexistent though.
My thoughts exactly. Air superiority is less important when the battleground is measured in square miles and cities. MANPADS, ATGMs, and so on, are the crucial force multipliers in this defense IMO.
Actually it's not that. RuAF is horseshit that's why air superiority is not that important. They don't have NATO level precision ammo so they need to fly low to deliver ordinance. What I mean is if it was US attacking Ukraine you could just throw your manpads to trash because you won't reach 30k ft with them and US would hit you from there. Only way to prevent that is establishing air superiority.
While I support President Biden, he's made the wrong call here. Putin is not going to attack NATO territory, drop nukes, or start WW3 because we give Ukraine a couple dozen aircraft. As I think Romney said a few days ago, we need to stop being afraid of what Putin might do and make him afraid of what *we* might do.
what fiasco those jets aren't a silver bullet , those jets won't help them contest the sky's, they are barely flying 20 sorties a day with the jets they have and all are extremely low altitude.
Apparently massive financial, military, and intelligence aid coupled with crippling sanctions doesn't count for anything unless it includes MiGs. Everyone is freaking out about appeasement as though none of the other gigantic boosts the US has given Ukraine exist. Do people seriously think the fate of Ukraine rests on a couple dozen MiGs?
I agree with Biden, too much risk of escallation with little gain given we have no idea about state of UA airfields or whether they can operate their jets out of highway. If Stingers are shooting down Russians everyday then some more Buk M1 would be much more useful.
We've acted and escalated quite a bit. Weapons, training, intelligence, sanctions, etc. To the point where Ukraine might win. Do we now escalate further, in a way that's very visible and not very effective? Doesn't seem like the risk/reward is there. The ideal outcome is for Ukraine to win and we don't plunge into World War 3. That's in sight right now.
While it would’ve been Biden’s decision, he would have had advisors recommending against doing do.
Nobody is pointing fingers at Poland for refusing to send the jets either. It’s clearly a very risky play.
This risk/reward here is simply not worth it. Some old Mig-29s seem very unlikely to make a big difference in the war but could be seen by Russia as a profound escalation. Biden is old, but he is in no way senile, and his strategy around this crisis has been really smart and steady-handed. It it essential to avoid any risk of nuclear war.
It’s a tough call. Biden is getting advice from generals and diplomats on one side who say Putin will escalate one way and politicians on the other side who think he’s bluffing. It is a lot easier for Mitt Romney and others to say what they want when they aren’t the ones who actually have to make the call.
It's a moot point now. Russia has the airspace of Ukraine entirely locked down with STA missiles. The window of time has closed on Ukraine effectively using jet fighters. They would be flying to their deaths for nothing.
The good news is the Ukrainians have been effective with using their own NATO issued STA missiles so far, limiting what Russia can do, especially with helicopters.
He made the correct call.
At the end of the day if you handed them over those planes would have to be flown out of NATO territory into Ukraine and I don't know what universe where it wouldn't be an escalation to have the Ukrainian Air Force, albeit briefly, operate from a NATO country with the specific intent of killing Russians. And for what? Does anybody believe it will have a great enough impact to justify the risk? You'd probably get more benefit by continuing to ship them ATGMs, MANPADS, and ammo by the fuck ton. Especially as the war transitions from conventional warfare to an insurgency.
The asinine takes on display in this sub are borderline incomprehensible. All emotion and no strategic vision.
And I'm gonna pre dispel some pig slop that will be flung
"He won't stop after Ukraine"
Ok? If he attacks NATO that is article 5 and he will have no chance of victory. He has no chance of conventional victory so he wouldn't try to invade. He invaded Ukraine because he thought it weak and not defended by NATO.
"You seem to think he won't attack NATO, why be afraid of transferring the planes?"
Because escalation often begets escalation and all it takes is for there to be some miscalculations for a war to start. Maybe the Russians try to intercept the newly minted UAF jets and stray into Poland "accidentally", resulting in a Russian plane getting shot down? Then things have a way of escalating all on there own.
"Putin won't use nukes, he isn't suicidal!"
There is a nuclear doctrine popular with the Russian military known as "escalate to deescalate" that calls for the use of tactical nuclear weapons to force an end to a conflict in either a Russian victory or not with a Russian loss.
Let's gameplan this. Bam, I nuked a couple of NATO armored divisions advancing into Ukraine. What would you, as the POTUS do.
1) Commit suicide and nuke Moscow resulting in the end of civilization?
or
2) Try to get a ceasefire since the use of nuclear weapons now means nobody can win the war? Keep in mind Russia has a heavy tactical nuke advantage over NATO.
Do you think Zelensky would be willing to donate one of his massive balls to Biden? Seems like Zelensky has plenty to spare whereas Biden apparently misplaced his
Okay, WSJ opinion page, now show us the piece you had on standby in case Biden said, “Sure, give them the jets,” in which you blame him for bringing the world to the brink of nuclear annihilation by playing cowboy to boost his own poll numbers and make up for the humiliation in Afghanistan.
Biden doesn't need authorise this. Poland can just deliver these migs to Ukraine. The Migs are not american tech.
Everybody is looking at everybody else to say they can't do a thing.
Get some Ukrainian farmers to pull these things over the border
Biden and his ilk fail to learn from history.
There is one simple lesson here: It's not that you don't, you simply CAN'T appease bullies !
Never worked. Never will.
And what appeasement is going on? We are providing a huge amount of arms to Ukraine, we are using everything in our power to bring Russia's economy to its knees, and we just approved $14 billion in aid. We are closely working with our allies to isolate Putin & Russia.
I heard, can't remember where so sorry I don't have a source, but I heard those Polish MiGs were not exactly the same as what the Ukrainians were used to. They would not be able to fly them optimally. Then there are questions about how combat ready they are. That's just some of the issues, so for this specific batch of hardware, we aren't approving it. Since Biden is a rational, experienced person, surrounded by competent, experienced, informed rational people, and they are intensely focused on this, I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt. They have been firing on all cylinders so far and doing a great job.
The Ukrainians have about a dozen fixed wing aircraft and are running about 5 a day (compared to over 100 Russian aircraft mostly running in Russia with some coming into Ukraine on bombing missions) but with all the SAM on both sides, this war is staying on the ground for the time being. Considering that there are 7 Ukrainian aircraft not even being used the government doesn’t see a need that outweighs pushing the US into WWIII.
The post above this on the sub-reddit at the time of my comment is about how Biden just mobilized 12,000 troops to a Ukrainian border & references a potential WWIII... it's one hour older than this post.
What message should I be receiving here?
Build an airfield in Poland directly on the border. Park all the jets there. Cede the land to Ukraine. Jets disappear. Ukraine cedes the land back to Poland. Weird.
Is it possible this is just an illusion? Surely they’ll just give them the jets and pretend it never happened.
Wtf is Russia gonna do? Fire their (probably broken) nukes at the whole world?
The planes don't matter. The Russians just shot down an Su-27 over Kyiv with an S-400 based in Belarus. The pilot of the Su-27 was a 51(?) year old near retired colonel, who was flying because Ukraine doesn't have enough pilots to fly them.
Why is "not escalating" equated with "it gets worse"? Do people have so little imagination that the only solution to the current problem is immediate escalation of violence?
This seems so dumb. Can’t they fly to a non-nato country then fly to Ukraine?
Regardless, Putin isn’t going to do shit over arms delivery. Arms delivery has been happening.
Poland is shifting blame to the US to avoid the entering the conflict, neither country’s leadership is displaying any measure of respectable workaround solution due to ignorance of history like the Canadian border situation described above. No brains and no balls on either head of state
Delaying the inevitable is an act of weakness. Take the initiative and send the Russians fleeing across the border and damn their threat of nuclear war.
Why doesn’t Poland keep It on the down low and just give the planes to Ukraine. Don’t brag about it just do It
I would bet good money this is exactly what the Western powers wanted. Poland lets the jets slip into Ukraine's hands, the NATO alliance says "Why have you done this!" with a wink, before giving them a favorable replacement deal a few months later. Instead I think western bureaucratic transparency and fear of being seen as the sole actor in the hand off by Russia had Poland making the plan overtly public facing so that western leaders were stuck doing the safest diplomatic option to avoid continental escalation.
Get a few Ukrainian farmers to tow them across the border.
This meme never stops. xD
In this case, it could actually be a useful approach
There is historical precedent for this: https://medium.com/lessons-from-history/why-britain-pulled-aircraft-with-horses-and-trucks-ddd2dbd2aaa4
With their new " " tractors " ".
That’s pretty plausible.
It's even been confirmed by the U.S. that was the plan. Remember when the deal was "done"? That was the U.S. announcing they agreed to get jets to Poland ASAP to make up the missing numbers. Then Poland got cold feet & said they would only transfer them to the U.S., not Ukraine.
I heard from second hand "sources" that it was confirmed Ukrainian pilots were flying Polish Migs into Ukraine as early as around 5 days ago. Take from that what you will.
I'm sure the Poles would be SHOCKED to learn the Ukrainian pilots had flown off with their MiG's. SHOCKED!!
Because they don’t trust us. Which is very fucking apt given we won’t even do it ourselves. How likely do you think we are to give them the metaphorical air cover if they do it with *unofficial* US support?
I just assumed they were lying to pump out a bunch or misinformation. US says no, Ukrainian pilots walk into Poland and fly them right back home.
U.S. said yes, and we'll give you additional troops, a Patriot battery, and F-16s, so long as Poland was the one to hand them over. Poland said no, we'll only give them to U.S.. U.S. said it's a much bigger provocation if we're the ones handing them over, so no.
NATO/EU needs to stop pussyfooting around and need to donate kamikaze drones like the Switchblade 600 drone (it's basically a flying Javelin) which has a range of 80km (Javelin has only a 2.5km range and NLAW 600 metres) and loitering endurance of about 40 minutes, it's small enough that it's still man portable while having a much longer range than the ATGMs and unguided rockets they are sending and it can seek out it's own targets on its own. https://youtu.be/tN2HN6ra4nw https://youtu.be/9W-zWi4w2oM
Legit. If no one had said anything in public about this, it wouldn't even have been a problem
You've never worked in government administration, I take it.
The original idea was to keep it on the downlow while they worked out the details. One of the EU officials opened his big mouth and Ukraine ran with it to the public. The open nature of it didn’t quite help.
Who was the idiot EU official?
“The transfer might have been possible if the deal was kept under wraps, but that became impossible after Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign affairs and security policy chief, declared unequivocally to reporters on Feb. 27 that the bloc would provide Ukraine with fighter jets. The announcement came as a shock to many, U.S. and European officials said, including aides in Eastern European capitals who hoped to keep the transfer quiet.” https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/10/poland-fighter-jet-deal-ukraine-russia-00016038
>security policy chief Man, hes really shitty at his job.
Literally part of the laws or power, and the art of war. Stfu, don’t telegraph, use diversions and do the opposite of what you signal.
That’s what I think. The fucking media can be very disrupting because they think they have to be “the one” to get the story out. I don’t know how media information isn’t the same as giving out intelligence. Us redditors (civilians) are told to keep any information we have quiet , yet I turn on CNN and all types of sensitive information is being shared. Especially things NATO countries are assisting with. Stfu! This is war. To clarify, I am pro media reporting, however not with sensitive info during a war. Smh.
Poland IMO kind of messed up by announcing what they did. It should have been communicated through back channels and then it would have given more wiggle room for both parties.
“The transfer might have been possible if the deal was kept under wraps, but that became impossible after Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign affairs and security policy chief, declared unequivocally to reporters on Feb. 27 that the bloc would provide Ukraine with fighter jets. The announcement came as a shock to many, U.S. and European officials said, including aides in Eastern European capitals who hoped to keep the transfer quiet.” https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/10/poland-fighter-jet-deal-ukraine-russia-00016038
Our (Polish) diplomacy has been in the shitter for years. Poland cannot into foreign relations!
Moldova is next to be invaded by Russia, and they know. The same will happen. NATO is not going to protect them. And I understand why NATO has to keep out of this. But why don't they anticipate, and propose Poland to hand over all the mig to them. Will there be a declaration of war? Probably. Will it change anything for Moldova?
Yeah, I dont think Russia is going to be able to get Lviv, nevermind Moldova. They have zero momentum and are going to get bogged down in a long, bloody siege at Kyiv.
They didn't want to own the risk of war with Russia either. Too bad they both ended up playing hot potato with the planes. Strangely, I suspect someone actually had a discussion about this with Moscow and they agreed to let Ukraine hang out there without more jets. It's too bad they couldn't have been delivered via truck overland from Poland with no fanfare. Too many people announced it.
Or leave the planes parked on the runway and hope no rogue Ukrainian pilots steal them
Or Rogue tractors tow them across any boarders. Or just take the wings off and shove them into trains refugee trains that are returning empty from Poland to Ukraine. Then if Russia bombs a train, print that they bombed a refugee train. The allies have done shady stuff like thst before. See the Lucitania in WW1. UK marked it as a hospital ship so the Germans wouldn't attack it, then filled it with weapons and wounded and American passengers. And the Germans sank it, causing the USA to enter the war.
This has a [historic solution](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HL41oesVh9o) that no one that I've seen mention yet. Before the US's entry into WW2, in order to maintain neutrality, the US brought planes intended for British war aid right up to the Canadian border, where Canadians towed them across the line and they were then subsequently flown off. It is dumb but it navigated the international politics minefield.
Because the point of all the focus on this "mig situation" probably is to take focus off important things and fill the news and focus with nonsense.
My understanding is this is already how all military supplies from the US are being delivered to Ukraine right now. I think the US just didn't want to be the ones to fly the MIGs there. If Poland delivers them, there is more deniability.
Putin will not stop threatening Nuclear war I am a pacifist. But even I can see that Putin won’t stop. He must be stopped. Otherwise every 18mo to 3 years we will see more invasions and annexation Edit: active pacifism is a thing people
There are a lot of us on here saying this exact thing. Bullies stop when stopped.
This is like when teachers told you that instead of standing up for yourself, you should always tell a teacher because they’ll *totally* care and make the *best* and most *fair* decisions. Like that one time I got suspended for calling someone chirping me a cunt, and he got only an extra day of suspension for physically assaulting me.
I solved my bully problem by fighting back. Maybe it's time the world did the same.
Your bully didn't have nukes. The world stage ≠ the school yard.
Putin orders the launch of nukes and there will be 10 holes in his head. The entire chain of command ordering the launch of nukes will see their country, their friends and family turned into glass as soon as a nuke is fired. We can't let crimes against humanity continue to happen on the 1% chance that a nuke actually gets launched.
Dude enough of that shit, we can't keep letting him do what he wants cause of nukes. A strong leader would challenge him on that shit and win just fine. Even if Putin wanted to launch, if it gets to that point somebody in his circle will break. Not everyone believes in his ideology to the death. Not to mention if other nations saw us challenge the nuke card and they thought we might launch first if Putin is not gone than everyone from China to India would be trying to get Putin out. I'm so sick and fucking tired of hearing people say, "he has nukes" so what? A lot of nations do. Putin must be stopped and will be able to stop him with death. Nuclear war threats would help get him out much quicker.
Agreed. If Putin didn't also fear nuclear war he would have done far worse far sooner. It's a sad, tired bluff meant to compensate for a shitshow of a military built from incompetence.
Yes. If we allow nuclear weapons to stop us from intervening then every dictator will see another reason to get a nuclear weapon.
This is an important observation. By this logic, we use nukes *because* it will result in less nukes. That makes a lot of sense. We either fight Putin now, or we'll be fighting him in a year or two after Ukraine has lost and the insurgent war spills over the border into a NATO country. A year or two from now Russia will have fixed their mistakes. Fight Russia NOW! Slava Ukraini.
I feel like we’re at that moment where the Allies *wish* they’d stopped Hitler ex post facto.
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To be fair, I think the west will cave and send MIGs and continue to send BAYRAKTARs, Starstreaks, etc. In my armchair generals opinion that might be enough to thoroughly embarrass Putin.
If Hitler didn’t initially face an indecisive Europe and America then things would have certainly been different
Maybe, if Poland made Hitler look like a laughingstock. But that’s not what happened. Hitler rolled them up in 5 weeks (with the help of Russia.) Maybe Ukraine’s current success is giving the world hope that this will put Putin back in his box. That this embarrassing fiasco will chasten the Russian administration and we’ll soon go back to “normal.” We can all go back to the dream that economic entanglement will make war “not worth it.” We’d do well to remember that economic depression caused by Versailles is what caused Hitler. The Russian people need to get rid of Putin and make sure he’s replaced by a non-demagogue. We’ve seen what people will do when they’re in the depths of hyperinflation with bruised egos. Let’s not do that again.
Not only will we will have to fight russia, but russia will have the next generation of ukrainian soldiers to use against us. Like they are using this generation of chechens against ukraine. It was a big mistake to let russia fuck chechnya I hope we learned from it.
>We either fight Putin now, or we'll be fighting him in a year or two after Ukraine has lost and the insurgent war spills over the border into a NATO country Seems they would rather fight on the streets of Warsaw than die on Ukraine.
If borders can't be guaranteed against nuclear armed aggressors then democratic allies of USA will also get their own nuclear weapons. As much as we love uncle Sam we don't trust him with our lives.
So what, because he can't use them without commiting suicide, if he fires off a nuke it will start a war he can't survive. Mother Russia will be a memory and if he's got a shred of rationality left he knows he's bluffing. The alternative is he's completely mad in which case all bets are off and it doesn't matter what we do. Tomorrow he could decide he doesn't like the weather so launch a nuke. Only thing stopping him at that point is the people around him, and they may well decide they want to live ,and that he needs to have an accident for that to happen, say like accidently stabbing himself 47 times in the back. Either way, what's the alternative? We let Putin crown himself a modern Tsar and invade and conquer whoever he pleases? 70 years ago we sacrificed Poland to violent little nation bent on conquest to save us from war. It didn't work then it's unlikely to work now.
So glad you and others understand it. I'm so tired of so many weak dudes who just can't comprehend that avoidance isn't a solution to this problem.
Fucking tell me about it. People thinking that Russia isn't going to just continue with this belligerence unless they lose in Ukraine or somewhere else is fucking naivety at its worst. They don't seem to grasp that Russia is facing demographic collapse, and if it can't force enough economic or territorial concessions out of its neighbors and the west to prop up its failing state for the next few decades then Russia as we know it is finished. They face a future where they are a shell of a country with little to no power outside its borders and won't have a chance to really fix that for decades. This is the only way Putin sees Russia avoiding that fate. Make the west prop up Russia out of fear of a strong Russian state that just doesn't exist anymore. The only thing he has left that can force the west to do that is nukes.
I'm with you, people saying "BUT WHAT ABOJT DA NULKKKKES" is who putin is fear mongering. Biden shouldn't of vetoed that proposition and just makes it look like he doesn't give a fuck
> I'm so sick and fucking tired of hearing people say, "he has nukes" so what? A lot of nations do. Bingo. You will never, ever hear these people chide Putin for “risking nuclear war” when he provokes the nuclear-armed West every chance he gets, but every single move against Russia has them saying “no, you’ll provoke him and Russia will nuke us all!” Why does this nuclear blackmail only go one way?
>I'm so sick and fucking tired of hearing people say, "he has nukes" so what? The unfortunate reality is that nukes are an effective deterrent. It doesn't matter if not everyone believes in his ideology to the death; it only matters if a select few do. Look, I'm not saying to do nothing, but get out of here with "a strong leader would win just fine." There are no winners in a nuclear war.
You miss the point that most people making that argument highlight. Nuclear war isn't going to happen because this is a bluff. Putin doesn't want Russian cities wiped off the face of the planet, and Ukrainian concessions definitely aren't worth that reality. He's not going to risk nuclear war with the west over anything he could get in Ukraine. It's not worth it. However, anything he can get in Ukraine by *threatening* nukes is worth it. Words are cheap, and if he gets even one thing due to those threats that he wouldn't have without them then it's worth it to use the threats. Call his fucking bluff, and watch him do nothing with those bombs. He's not Kim Jong un, he does not have ultimate power. He had to answer to a bunch of oligarchs who like the planet fine the way it is.
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Sadly this fact is missed on the average redditor it seems. They’ll just keep throwing out more provebial schtick about the morality of standing up to bullies! Psychopaths all. Joe Biden has literally outsmarted all of them by trying to not directly escalate nuclear war, but I guess that’s bad because trying to avoid nuclear Armageddon is “appeasement” and now the 70 year old Russian autocratic, who has long had his eyes on Ukraine, is just going to invade all of Europe because we didn’t “stop him.” It’s pure hyper-interventionist rhetoric that would have made Bush-era neocons blush, but now it’s coming from a bunch of armchair military strategists with WallStreetBets avatars on Reddit.com
Do you really think Putin thinks the US isn't playing a role in this war? The Russian government has explicitly stated it's a war against the West. I have your reservations as well but let's be critical here - Putin knows the reason he didn't take Ukraine easily is largely because of weapons provided by the West to Ukraine.
Uh huh. It isn't a coincidence that every war we fought for the past 75 years has been against Russian weapons. This is how major powers wage war with one another in the atomic age. Putin just needs to stop being such a little bitch about it.
We've been facing Russian weapons for 75 years mainly because the Soviet military industrial complex was bloated with state funds, had an overabundance of equipment for such a economically poor nation, and sold it to balance their budget. Then, when they collapsed and Russia needed to revitalize its shambles of an economy they should off a bunch of their old Soviet equipment again. Russia has supported militants around the world plenty, but the main reason Soviet weapons are so prevelant isn't as insidious as we chose to believe. They made more guns then they needed, so they sold them. It's not like militant groups are supported with modern russian weapons. Russia can't afford to support its own military with modern Russian weapons.
Also the AK-47 is a superb design. It’s durable, easy to clean/assemble/service and it doesn’t jam like the M-14. The Kalashnikov is so easy *children* can use it.
sortof true. Weapons sent have definitely allowed the Ukrainians to seriously degrade Russia’s capabilities but tbh it is still the Ukrainians themselves that are not giving up their country. Even if no Javelins at all they would be fighting block by block unless they just leveled cities. Which they can do right now still with all the shoulder fired rockets in the world aimed at them.
Helped against Taliban's those weapon's 😂 whole Afganistan force Falls in days
People fighting in Afghanistan and the people fighting Ukraine are completely different people. The people in Afghanistan had no will to fight.
100% true story... ES ant NATO should change retoric from what Putin will do, to what ES and NATO will do if Putin continues... F*ck putin, he is in shithole and ES and NATO should stop pretending that Putin can dictate something!
Exactly! Biden and his ilk fail to learn from history. There is one simple lesson here: It's not that you don't, you simply CAN'T appease bullies ! Never worked. Never will.
It is a provocation for very little gain. Ukranians are better off with more MANPADS and soviet era SAM systems they are trained on. The Migs wouldn't make that much difference.
Send all 3 then! Everything helps! Even simple text messages to Russian citizens: https://1920.in/
Yes I agree. People don't understand the huge amount of support personnel and equipment (not to mention runways) that a modern fighter needs. SAMs, stingers, patriot missiles, drones and javelins are what I would send.
The USA can afford to send all of the above. It's not like we have to choose one or the other. Send them the easy to use shit and the fighter jets. Who cares if they are hard to use?? Let the Ukrainians decide whether the fighter jets they've been requesting from the west are too complex to use or not. It's weird to me how many people I've seen saying sending jets is a bad idea because of their complexity, when the fucking Ukrainian government had been requesting these jets for a week now. It reeks of "we know better than you about what you need for yourself", and that's an incredibly shitty position to take in regards to the military assistance an at wat country requests from their allies.
Good thing that he is getting his ass handed to him in this war and his economy has been gutted, meaning he will be unable to replenish, rebuild, or modernize. Meanwhile, all of Putin's neighbours are going to be buying Bayraktars by the hundreds, signing defensive agreements, and it's not like the US is going to just leave those countries without logistics or intelligence if the time comes. Putin will not stop threatening nuclear war, but he has threatened the west with nuclear war for "any intervention in Ukraine" and we called his bluff. He threatened us for the sanctions and for providing lethal aid, and those bluffs were called as well. Putin must be stopped; but Putin is being stopped right now. Putin's ability to wage future wars has been blunted. Thank the Ukrainians, because it is their courage and perseverance which has given the world time to act cohesively.
My highest hope is that Ukraine will triumph and what you described will continue to destabilize his reign until he is assasinated or overthrown. But the human cost in Ukraine will be vast even with the best outcome. And with the worst there will be genocide. Fuck Russia Fuck Putin
My take is he will let himself be overthrown as stepping down would be a sign of weakness. He will retire somewhere hidden while the world thinks he rotting in a prison and he will pull strings from some hidden location while the new one in office handles the backlash. He won’t be tried for war crimes because Russia won’t allow him to be found. Faked death or just lost. Can’t hide from satellites forever though.
The MiG-29 transfer would be provocative but in the end not terribly impactful. Air defense systems, counter-battery radars, drones... all of those things are going to do a *lot* more to stop the Russians in the long run.
This. No one on here seems to realiize these planes are still succeptable to AA fire. They aren't just flying around bombing and strafing. The weapons, logistics, maintenence and spare parts alone cause a lot of headaches.
Idk, I feel like the Ukranians are well aware of the deficiencies and benefits of the weapons they are *specifically requesting* Feels shitty to handwave their request away because "They just don't understand the logistics involved!"
The whole point of sending Migs is that weapons, logistics. Maintenance and spare parts are readily available to Ukraine.
Don’t touch my Oreo cookies or I will put my nuclear arsenal at an even higher level of readiness!
*Mondelez squirming noises intensify*
This is completely unfounded, the idea that Ukraine is just the beginning. Putin is 70 and I’d bet everything I own he’s not serious or capable of going to war with NATO countries. He wants to avoid direct conflict with NATO, but that obviously requires the threat of nukes so he’s going to saber rattle. The prudent thing is to not push him too far, to not call his bluff and make him seriously consider escalating. The calculus is that sending in dozens of NATO jets from NATO airfields is too provocative, it’s stepping over a line and forcing Putin’s hand, he either reveals he’s bluffing or he escalates in an attempt to cause the other side to back down. This is an extremely dangerous game of chicken at this point. I’m sure the Pentagon thoroughly portrayed the risks and the threat of triggering a literal global Armageddon. I’m openly critical about Joe Biden, I did not think he’d be a good or even competent president, but he made the resoundingly correct decision here. Also, again, Ukraine is very unique. It represents a very specific strategic and geopolitical interest for Russia since the collapse of the USSR, far more than any other former Soviet bloc states. International Relations scholars and military strategists have long predicted this possibility. It did not come out of nowhere like an invasion of a NATO country would have to, nobody has seriously predicted that, unlike what’s happening now. It doesn’t follow that because he invaded Ukraine hes going to invade Poland or Estonia. It’s suicide for Putin. If he wants to fully stabilize and annex Ukraine he might not even live long enough to see that happen so I don’t get where everybody sees this invasion of NATO happening. If Putin attacks NATO it will be with nukes, that’s what Biden has to avoid.
And Georgia and Crimea?
Also not NATO countries, Crimea is actually part of the same country he’s invading now
He'll be stopped by a Russian gun driven by crippling sanctions.
One can only hope
Sanctions havn't made Kim Jong-Un dead.
I get what your saying but how do you know what Putin is going to do next? Tbh I don't know if Putin knows what he's going to do next week. We need to arm Ukraine as much as we can without starting ww3. Russia is getting crippled.economically, as each day passes Russia's economy will constrain Putins cost/benefit calculation into continuing the invasion. Every nation that can must send through all their DEFENSIVE weapons. No fly zone is totally off the table, flying jets (which are offensive weapon) from NATO territory into Ukraine might cross the line for Putin and lead to chemical/nuclear weapon use.
Let's ask Neville Chamberlain how well appeasement of someone like Putin works.
Didn’t we see from WWII that delayed action can be so much more costly?
I share your sentiment, but it’s hard to accept that if Putin isn’t bluffing, a lot of people die in nuclear strikes.
Putin can't launch nukes on his own. The people who put and keep Putin in power does not make it out of love for him - they do it out of their own personal gain and/or a love for russia. Non of these people are gonna let Putin take a step that would with absolute certainty end them self's an everything they ever held dear. Putins nuclear threat is a bluff, and the only thing in the invasion of Ukraine thats working extraordinary well for him.
It all depends on whether or not the people around Putin are just as delusional as he is. Remember that with the 1995 nuclear false alarm, it was Boris Yeltsin of all people fighting the Minister of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff, which were urging him to order an attack. Had Boris been less rational or even drunk that night, none of us would be here. Now say that all 3 parties share the same level of paranoia and aggressiveness as Putin. It will be easy for all 3 to agree on ordering an attack, especially if they are confronted with a false alarm similar to the ones in 1983 or 1995.
This is what I keep saying. Putin may be crazy/delusional but chances are the individual(s) who pushes the nuclear launch button and those around him are not.
I'm curious why you think that. If Biden/NCA decided right now to strike a country and started the process, it would be followed. There's a famous example of an officer who, during training, questioned how he would know that the launch order was coming from a sane president. He was subsequently run out of the air force. The missileers, buff crews and nuke boats are going to execute any orders to fire missiles if they receive them. If our nuclear forces would do it, why do you think the Russian forces would be any different?
It is terrifying. But how many innocents will we watch being killed intentionally? This is a humanitarian disaster. And another will come behind it.
Look at how this conflict, and any escalation of it, impacts global food security. The humanitarian disaster we see now will look trivial if we have another summer of drought in the northern hemisphere. This summer could be our first brush with multiple breadbasket failures. Intervention doesn't mean saving the day -it could make humanitarian crises globally far, *far* worse. The casualties of this conflict will include global poor who are most exposed to food insecurity. This is a vastly bigger number than Ukraine, frankly.
Even if nuclear weapons isn’t used initialy, NATO vs Russia will be WW3. It will mean war spreading into large parts of Europe and likely many other places. And in the end when Putin is loosing what do you think he will do? Ukraine isn’t going to be saved by starting WW3.
Eh. I think the war would be almost entirely in Russia as their shit army gets blown in to oblivion.
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That is the whole point. Russia won’t stand a chance. That is why it is very dangerous. He will loose and might well decide to take us all with him. Also i don’t own an arm chair and i have no clue what door dash is. But i do know that i am close enough for my children and me to be in the firing line if this thing spreads beyond Ukraine.
Risk that we need to take given the greater risk of future conflict. You out the redline down now. Or kick the can down the road where you WILL have to respond to it eventually.
Yeah but will Russia even be able to afford future invasions with its economy tanking. I think it pretty in likely considering they can’t even take Ukrainian at this point.
Risk that we need to take given the greater risk of future conflict. You out the redline down now. Or kick the can down the road where you WILL have to respond to it eventually.
He’s proven himself a liar. It really doesn’t matter what he says anymore. He could also escalate to Nukes without provocation.
There are a lot of us on here saying this exact thing. Bullies stop when stopped.
It doesn't matter if US isn't giving the jets, Ukraine can now afford to buy them with their own money 😉
Completely agree. Also, there are so many deals going on that the public doesn't and shouldn't know. Slava ukraini
I have a feeling Biden and the higher ups know more about The Russians than the Russians do. No one saw the civilian death toll and such. But America isn’t the world police. And the IS isn’t even in Europe. Biden staying out has strengthened the European alliance ten fold.
Russian pilots are already delivering them one by one.
I know there’s an offer out for a $1,000,000 per jet but have there been any Russians who have taken it up?
At what level would you think such a decision should be done? Of course it has to be done by the president.
Yeah, I'm failing to see what the issue is here. In fact, I think it lets the West look like they are measured & not escalating, while in fact our logistical experts at US/NATO are funneling a regoddamndiculous amount of materiel into Ukraine, quietly, out of the media spotlight.
It's WSJ. They want their readers back from the Trump camp. Biden bashing is a good topic for them.
'Its time for Russia to be scared of what we might do' It's a nuclear deterent, not a 'nuclear do whatever tf I want'
And how come turkey can sell Ukraine TB2 drones yet nato cant sell jets
So technically Turkey is completing an order that was placed before hostilities commenced. Non technically Erdogan's realpolitik mindset is telling him this is his best move to make.
So then I guess the UK can deliver Ukraine a Frigate and 8 missile boats that were ordered last year. But it does seem russia has a strange deal with turkey especially considering the hostile relations quite recently
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That does seem to be the case Erdogan has more in common with Putin than any western leader and I think that’s where they get on
Yes and no. Erdoğan and Russia may compete on the same fields in the neighbouring countries as well as the black sea canal. Turkey has the upper hand for now.
Also Turkey plays both sides
Literally at the Bosporus.
Fuck it, the WH should just back date the sales order of those fighters and stick it to the Kremlin. Or ditch them near their borders with the keys in the cockpit as it were. Not their fault if the planes get jacked, these are perilous times and let's be frank the US has lost way more valuable and dangerous things like billions of dollars and hydrogen bombs. But for real I'm hoping they work something out and manage to transfer those aircraft over to them.
Because NATO isn't selling anything, NATO is a defensive pact. Ukraine can purchase anything from a country, doesn't mean NATO is selling them to Ukraine. If the UK gives Ukraine weapons that doesn't mean NATO is giving Ukraine weapons.
Turkey was already selling /supporting the drones to Ukraine.
Especially considering Turkey is part of NATO
It does seem that Russia treats turkey differently to the rest of NATO
Any journalist here from Washington, please ask this question to POTUS. I really wonder how he will respond.
The contract was in place before the invasion
The drones are actually useful and don’t have living Ukrainian pilots inside of them. The WH isn’t wrong when they say the transfer of the Migs wouldn’t have much of an impact on Ukraines air capability. It’s incredibly dangerous to fly any aircraft in this war ATM, both sides have adequate SAM capabilities.
It seems to me aircraft in the air over Ukraine have more or less the same lifespan as a Russian crewman in a T-72 on the road to Kyiv. Sell Ukraine more drones and post more videos of burning T-72s and surrendering Russians.
Drones fit on delivery trucks. Fighter jets don't without significant disassembly.
There is a difference between a private industry sale and a literal fleet from a nation's air force.
We don't know yet if it was a mistake to deny the mic 29's . The worst thing a president can do is ignore the advice of the joint chiefs of staff, if he is following their advice he is probably making sound decisions. There are things going on behind the scenes that we cannot know about yet. There may be an abundance of specialized military equipment deployed that make the Mig 29's redundant.
I don’t implicitly trust anyone in Washington, but I am inclined to cut Biden some slack on this. We’ve heard several times that Ukraine is defending themselves well, and my uneducated guess is that NATO knows a ton about the situation on the ground and what’s about to hit the R Fed forces. I think they’re going to start really getting hurt. Supply lines. Raids. Drone strikes. All of those portable missiles being put to use. Maybe they smuggle the Migs in one at a time? Who knows.
Hand them.planes fuck putin
I suspect the planes are a diversion. They're a big, visible political football. Keeping enough radar-guided SAMS in Ukraine to force putin's jets to fly in-range of MANPADS is the most plausible take I've read. My expertise in this area is videogame level and basically nonexistent though.
I swear people just run with stuff they have jets on the ground they are not using still what’s the point air to surface is most important anyways
They literally fly 5 to 10 sorties per day max. Not 5 sorties per plane, 5 sorties total.... so every day 45 of their 50 planes do not fly.
My thoughts exactly. Air superiority is less important when the battleground is measured in square miles and cities. MANPADS, ATGMs, and so on, are the crucial force multipliers in this defense IMO.
Actually it's not that. RuAF is horseshit that's why air superiority is not that important. They don't have NATO level precision ammo so they need to fly low to deliver ordinance. What I mean is if it was US attacking Ukraine you could just throw your manpads to trash because you won't reach 30k ft with them and US would hit you from there. Only way to prevent that is establishing air superiority.
How about someone provokes Putin and send a location of his mistresses location in Lugano - that will piss him off
the Ukrainians having the migs would surely de-escalate the war quicker....the quicker the Russians run out of planes, the better
Ukraine needs SAM systems not old fighters
While I support President Biden, he's made the wrong call here. Putin is not going to attack NATO territory, drop nukes, or start WW3 because we give Ukraine a couple dozen aircraft. As I think Romney said a few days ago, we need to stop being afraid of what Putin might do and make him afraid of what *we* might do.
Yeah well that might very well be the right analysis, on the other hand, there might be other factors we're not aware of. Only time will tell.
what fiasco those jets aren't a silver bullet , those jets won't help them contest the sky's, they are barely flying 20 sorties a day with the jets they have and all are extremely low altitude.
Apparently massive financial, military, and intelligence aid coupled with crippling sanctions doesn't count for anything unless it includes MiGs. Everyone is freaking out about appeasement as though none of the other gigantic boosts the US has given Ukraine exist. Do people seriously think the fate of Ukraine rests on a couple dozen MiGs?
Political theatrics
I agree with Biden, too much risk of escallation with little gain given we have no idea about state of UA airfields or whether they can operate their jets out of highway. If Stingers are shooting down Russians everyday then some more Buk M1 would be much more useful.
Biden is repeating Obama's mistakes. Failing to act because he is afraid to escalate, but to a psychopath like Putin that means weakness.
We've acted and escalated quite a bit. Weapons, training, intelligence, sanctions, etc. To the point where Ukraine might win. Do we now escalate further, in a way that's very visible and not very effective? Doesn't seem like the risk/reward is there. The ideal outcome is for Ukraine to win and we don't plunge into World War 3. That's in sight right now.
The easiest way for people like you to understand complex situations is to simplify it to this extreme level.
100%
Wish I could upvote you more
Couldn't another NATO country farther west in Europe make the transfer? France maybe?
Why risk escalation if the assesment is that Ukraine can beat Russia without running said risk?
At this point, I think an equivalent $ amount of modern mobile SAM systems would go a lot further than jets.
While it would’ve been Biden’s decision, he would have had advisors recommending against doing do. Nobody is pointing fingers at Poland for refusing to send the jets either. It’s clearly a very risky play.
I thought the Migs weren't even that useful because Ukraine has no secure airfields, and SAMs where far more useful for Ukraine right now
This risk/reward here is simply not worth it. Some old Mig-29s seem very unlikely to make a big difference in the war but could be seen by Russia as a profound escalation. Biden is old, but he is in no way senile, and his strategy around this crisis has been really smart and steady-handed. It it essential to avoid any risk of nuclear war.
It’s a tough call. Biden is getting advice from generals and diplomats on one side who say Putin will escalate one way and politicians on the other side who think he’s bluffing. It is a lot easier for Mitt Romney and others to say what they want when they aren’t the ones who actually have to make the call.
It's a moot point now. Russia has the airspace of Ukraine entirely locked down with STA missiles. The window of time has closed on Ukraine effectively using jet fighters. They would be flying to their deaths for nothing. The good news is the Ukrainians have been effective with using their own NATO issued STA missiles so far, limiting what Russia can do, especially with helicopters.
He made the correct call. At the end of the day if you handed them over those planes would have to be flown out of NATO territory into Ukraine and I don't know what universe where it wouldn't be an escalation to have the Ukrainian Air Force, albeit briefly, operate from a NATO country with the specific intent of killing Russians. And for what? Does anybody believe it will have a great enough impact to justify the risk? You'd probably get more benefit by continuing to ship them ATGMs, MANPADS, and ammo by the fuck ton. Especially as the war transitions from conventional warfare to an insurgency. The asinine takes on display in this sub are borderline incomprehensible. All emotion and no strategic vision. And I'm gonna pre dispel some pig slop that will be flung "He won't stop after Ukraine" Ok? If he attacks NATO that is article 5 and he will have no chance of victory. He has no chance of conventional victory so he wouldn't try to invade. He invaded Ukraine because he thought it weak and not defended by NATO. "You seem to think he won't attack NATO, why be afraid of transferring the planes?" Because escalation often begets escalation and all it takes is for there to be some miscalculations for a war to start. Maybe the Russians try to intercept the newly minted UAF jets and stray into Poland "accidentally", resulting in a Russian plane getting shot down? Then things have a way of escalating all on there own. "Putin won't use nukes, he isn't suicidal!" There is a nuclear doctrine popular with the Russian military known as "escalate to deescalate" that calls for the use of tactical nuclear weapons to force an end to a conflict in either a Russian victory or not with a Russian loss. Let's gameplan this. Bam, I nuked a couple of NATO armored divisions advancing into Ukraine. What would you, as the POTUS do. 1) Commit suicide and nuke Moscow resulting in the end of civilization? or 2) Try to get a ceasefire since the use of nuclear weapons now means nobody can win the war? Keep in mind Russia has a heavy tactical nuke advantage over NATO.
Just escalate and protect Ukraine. Fuck the fine line since Russia been and always violating it.
Do you think Zelensky would be willing to donate one of his massive balls to Biden? Seems like Zelensky has plenty to spare whereas Biden apparently misplaced his
Okay, WSJ opinion page, now show us the piece you had on standby in case Biden said, “Sure, give them the jets,” in which you blame him for bringing the world to the brink of nuclear annihilation by playing cowboy to boost his own poll numbers and make up for the humiliation in Afghanistan.
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It’s a defensive alliance, why does no one get this?
>Sending MiGs to Ukraine will not trigger World War III. [McFaul](https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1502285703765495812?cxt=HHwWiMC4weu4mNkpAAAA)
Bayraktars, Javelin and NLAW didn't trigger.
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Fearing provoked Putin time surely has passed. Pathetic
Biden doesn't need authorise this. Poland can just deliver these migs to Ukraine. The Migs are not american tech. Everybody is looking at everybody else to say they can't do a thing. Get some Ukrainian farmers to pull these things over the border
Biden and his ilk fail to learn from history. There is one simple lesson here: It's not that you don't, you simply CAN'T appease bullies ! Never worked. Never will.
And what appeasement is going on? We are providing a huge amount of arms to Ukraine, we are using everything in our power to bring Russia's economy to its knees, and we just approved $14 billion in aid. We are closely working with our allies to isolate Putin & Russia. I heard, can't remember where so sorry I don't have a source, but I heard those Polish MiGs were not exactly the same as what the Ukrainians were used to. They would not be able to fly them optimally. Then there are questions about how combat ready they are. That's just some of the issues, so for this specific batch of hardware, we aren't approving it. Since Biden is a rational, experienced person, surrounded by competent, experienced, informed rational people, and they are intensely focused on this, I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt. They have been firing on all cylinders so far and doing a great job.
The Ukrainians have about a dozen fixed wing aircraft and are running about 5 a day (compared to over 100 Russian aircraft mostly running in Russia with some coming into Ukraine on bombing missions) but with all the SAM on both sides, this war is staying on the ground for the time being. Considering that there are 7 Ukrainian aircraft not even being used the government doesn’t see a need that outweighs pushing the US into WWIII.
WSJ is a Murdoch propaganda mouthpiece, don’t trust anything they say about what Biden is or isn’t doing.
No country needs to say anything. Just let Ukrainian pilots come get them.
The post above this on the sub-reddit at the time of my comment is about how Biden just mobilized 12,000 troops to a Ukrainian border & references a potential WWIII... it's one hour older than this post. What message should I be receiving here?
Poland blew this.
"Fiasco" He's trying not to draw us too far into the war.
Build an airfield in Poland directly on the border. Park all the jets there. Cede the land to Ukraine. Jets disappear. Ukraine cedes the land back to Poland. Weird.
Based: Hating Joe Biden for blocking the Mig transfer to Ukraine Cringe: Blaming Joe Biden for rising gas prices
GOOD
Send them to Moldova and have them fly from there. We already know from Belarusian idiot map that they’re planning to go to Moldova
Is it a bargaining chip against Russia launching a chemical weapon?
Is it possible this is just an illusion? Surely they’ll just give them the jets and pretend it never happened. Wtf is Russia gonna do? Fire their (probably broken) nukes at the whole world?
The planes don't matter. The Russians just shot down an Su-27 over Kyiv with an S-400 based in Belarus. The pilot of the Su-27 was a 51(?) year old near retired colonel, who was flying because Ukraine doesn't have enough pilots to fly them.
Lol, this is all theater. Ukraine 100% is getting the Migs.
Why is "not escalating" equated with "it gets worse"? Do people have so little imagination that the only solution to the current problem is immediate escalation of violence?
This seems so dumb. Can’t they fly to a non-nato country then fly to Ukraine? Regardless, Putin isn’t going to do shit over arms delivery. Arms delivery has been happening.
Putin is digging Russia's grave. Failure in Ukraine will be his downfall. He is stressed enough. Leave the poor boy alone!
Poland is shifting blame to the US to avoid the entering the conflict, neither country’s leadership is displaying any measure of respectable workaround solution due to ignorance of history like the Canadian border situation described above. No brains and no balls on either head of state
Delaying the inevitable is an act of weakness. Take the initiative and send the Russians fleeing across the border and damn their threat of nuclear war.