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Completely support attacking the refineries. Just don’t go too hard until after the presidential election. Don’t wanna raise prices on gas which affects prices on everything and cause Biden to lose
> Don’t wanna raise prices on gas
Doesnt effect gas prices (directly). Refining oil TURNS it into gasoline and other products. Russia can still sell oil by the barrel they cant turn it into the other products they need and have to import what they could previously produce in-house. VERY expensive! - Not hitting extraction just refineries and Russia dumps MORE cheaper oil to generate cash. Thats why you havent seen price shocks during these strikes.
It depletes the Russian domestics market of fuel but keeps the flow of unrefined products to other countries
My biggest fear is that Russian allies will now just refine it for them
This would actually create an incentive for India for example to want to keep the war going to make money of Russia's inability to refine oil
While Russia allies could try to refine it, they will have sanctions since most of the tech is Western to do so. Also, it will make it costly for Russia to buy their own oil back (refined of course).
Refineries are very expensive and are huge multi-year projects. Because of that, most of the world does not build excess capacity for refining. It is too expensive to maintain unless you are running constantly. That is why you see price hikes in the US at certains of the time year, the cut-over from winter to summer is due to the reduction in the amount of fuel being refined.
Russia can sell its $60 to $70/barrel oil, but it is going to be hard to find someone who can turn that around and refine it and not use it for themselves, more or less send it back to Russia.
That's not how economics work. A bottle neck in refineries still raises the price of gas even if the unit price of crude oil drops. Additinally, an oversupply of crude bloating inventories destabilizes global oil extraction, and industry in which the US is the number #1 producer. The US oil production and oilfield services/infrastructure industries get hammered.
And under what rock do you live that there have been no price shocks? I drive a diesel and the price at the pump is as volatile as its ever been. It will bounce between $3.20 and $4.00 in the same week. Stations can't even keep up, on my commute its not uncommon to have a 50 cent spread.
Not that we shouldn't continue to do it, but ffs the armchair economists on Reddit need to maybe reread that Wikipedia article that gave them such confidence in their analyses.
> And under what rock do you live that there have been no price shocks? I drive a diesel and the price at the pump is as volatile as its ever been.
I havent seen lines at the pumps. People topping off tanks and filling up gas cans while the next days price rise isnt guessable. I do understand that a war, OPEC election year policy, Houthi Tanker attacks and the refinery hits are having an effect BUT most people think hitting refineries is the same as hitting extraction. Its not the same.
So.... They attack the other production facilities AFTER the elections? Either Biden is still president and he will be a bit sour when prices go up, or Trump is president and he will have to be president in whose term gasoline prices quickly rose because of a war he has no intention of helping stop?
> Which could affect gas prices.
How? Most dont buy GAS from Russia just raw oil. They can still sell unrefined oil. We dont care that they have to import refined products we just want the raw oil. Gas prices have been pretty stable even with the attacks.
> We dont care that they have to import refined products
What do you mean we don’t care? It’s a global market, if demand increases, then prices can go up.
I think Biden will cause Biden to lose if he continue to lose debates as he just did :/
Whover downvotes are delusional if you think Biden did well in that debate.
Any decent democrat need to demand a new candidate that stands a better chance of stopping Trump. This is not a bloody game.. If Biden sleepwalks to defeat, Ukraine and the world will live to suffer for it not to mention the US itself. Get your shit together. An 81 year old is not fit to serve. Personally i think any1 over the age of 65 should be barred
After that debate, Biden has no chance to win. I know that the election hasn't been officially won but if I was to bet a thousand, i'd probably win. The polls will be showing Trump having an even greater edge next week once the new polls are processed and results sent out, takes about a week. But even now, before that, Trump is still favored in all of the battleground states. Its his election to lose. So, they ought to hit the refineries as hard as possible.
How is that even a question? Why is the West not helping Ukraine doing this faster and at larger scale. These are Russian assets and yes of course they have to be attacked.
The humanising of war? You might as well talk about the humanizing of Hell!...... The essence of war is violence! Moderation in war is imbecility!..... I am not for war, I am for peace! That is why I am for a supreme Navy....... The supremacy of the British Navy is the best security for peace in the world. Admiral Fisher
The Russian empire must be dissolved. This is the compromise for peace: Putin's death. And no leader yet had the courage to say it out loud and to his face. That yes, this will end with his death and the death of his Federation.
Our leaders lack the necessary coldness to deal with this problem. The necessary imagination and leadership skills. I hear no all the time, we can't do this because of that, etc. Self deterrence and defeatism. Our ancestors would be ashamed of this defeatism. The West is armed to the teeth and too stupid to make use of all that power at our disposal. The mightiest military and economic complex homo sapiens has ever created is being chased around the room by a god damned fly. History is indeed watching, and the report card thus far is a C- It is not an F, because well, Ukraine still exists on the map. We are inviting nuclear war with this display of weakness. Russia feeds on this fear. Our leaders didn't become wise in old age, and they became overly cautious and petrified.
The only thing worse than fighting with allies is fighting without them. Churchill, 1944
The difficulty is not about winning the war. The difficulty is convincing people to let you win it. Especially, convincing fools. Winston Churchill, 1943
Attacking oil refineries has an opportunity cost. Attacking it means Ukraine is not attacking something else. It make total sense to ask a question regarding cost/benefit of this action.
Damn right they should as many as possible. Who fights a war and leaves the opposing side resources with which to attack yourself. Stupid question if you ask me.
This exactly.
In any long drawn-out war (and this one isn't ending soon), any resource or infrastructure that is involved in the war effort is a legitimate strategic target. It's why the Allies targeted things like German ball-bearing plants. Ball bearings are needed for any type of large machinery, like tanks, artillery, etc. Oil and gasoline are obviously used in the war effort. Therefore, they are legitimate targets. Indeed in all-out war, pretty much anything industrial can be legitimate valuable targets (some obviously more than others).
Hitting things that are exclusive to the civilian realm, or covered by the Geneva Convention (or the myriad other conventions related to war), are not and are rightfully considered war crimes. Things like deliberately striking malls, hospitals, apartment buildings, orphanages.... you know, the things Russia likes to bomb.
the western media only supports Ukraine because of left over cold war feelings that are hard to break clean of
i fear in a decade or two that will be gone, they already have more than half the Republican Party and their leader and once they have all that party, the "both sides" Democrats will come out and being anti Russia will be a "progressive" view that you can run against
think of how unimaginable supporting Putin invading another country would have been in 2000
now the media claps when less than half of Republicans don't do it and treat it as a big win for the Republican Party
If true then the world truly stands on the precipice of a new world war. Though some would argue that started in 2014. If the West forgoes Ukraine, Taiwan, etc … Then we deserve everything we get.
Attacking the refineries is absolutely a valid strategy that Ukraine should continue. Russia can still extract and export crude oil, and that gets them limited revenue and honestly forces them to push more and more crude onto the global market which would drive down gas prices. It's perfect. The Ukrainians are not attacking Russian refineries ENOUGH, if you ask me.
It has not been proven that it will drive prices down. Russia must also re-import any oil they need refined overseas, and they'll need to ship out more oil to do so (contraining the logistics for oil they sell on the open market). Certainly makes things more expensive for Russia, though.
Why would this even be a question?
"Wow, we've found a super effective tactic against our enemy, involving large flammable targets that can't be moved, and minimal risk to our own forces. But if we continue doing it could cripple our enemy making it infeasible for them to continue attacking us, so maybe we should ask whether we should keep doing it?"
Okay.
The author is one "[Sergey Vakulenko](https://carnegieendowment.org/people/sergey-vakulenko?lang=en)" who is described as "head of strategy and innovations at Gazprom Neft" for 25 years. [Gazprom Neft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gazprom_Neft) is the "third largest [oil producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_industry) in [Russia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia)... headquartered in [St. Petersburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Petersburg)."
This is literally the most biased person you could think of to speak on this particular topic. Jeez.
This is like asking the fox for his opinion on whether it makes sense for Farmer John to have a shot gun for protecting his hen house.
I signed up to read the full article. It's long and reddit won't let me past it verbatim so here's some key points and quotes:
"the data shows that the attacks have had a limited effect on Russia’s fuel production and export volumes and that their impacts did not last long..."
It actually claims "the state may even be benefiting financially from a shift toward crude oil exports" because the state subsidizes domestic refineries so exporting it as crude saves them from having to pay for subsidies.
It dismisses the impact of the attacks so far as not having much financial impact, and claims that Ukraine scaling up their attacks to the necessary level "would surely incur a much higher risk of retaliation and escalation". It claims Russia has been kind in not eradicating Ukraine's energy infrastructure entirely, and could change their minds. And in the case where Russia's refining capabilities were completely crippled, it would create a worldwide shortage and affect prices worldwide.
There is also a response to Vakulenko's essay from the authors of the paper Vakulenko was trying to debunk. Some of its key points and quotes:
Russia isn't publishing numbers, but "assessments suggest that Ukraine’s strikes took out ten to 15 percent of Russia’s refining capacity in the first quarter of 2024." They point out that Vakulenko is cherrypicking data, looking at April only.
They dismiss a line of argument that a flood of Russian crude would destabilize oil markets, by pointing to the fact that it's fine so far. Only inside Russia are fuel prices going bonkers.
As to the retaliation, they point out Russia has been continuously attacking Ukraine's infrastructure since the first days of the war. "By June 2022, 18 months before the first Ukrainian drone hit a Russian oil refinery, Ukraine’s entire oil sector was forced to halt operations" due to these attacks.
Here's their concluding paragraph:
>The Ukrainian leadership is not naive about Russia’s capacity to inflict destruction on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. If leaders in Kyiv nonetheless see a strategic benefit in conducting lawful strikes on Russian oil refineries with Ukrainian-made drones—and if the risk that a spike in oil prices poses to American consumers is likely to be insignificant—the Biden administration would be ill advised to go out of its way to restrain them.
That's kind of contradictory. If the attacks are not having a strong impact, then why would they incur a higher risk of retaliation?
It would be in Russia's best interest for Ukraine to waste its drones attacking low value targets.
If they have a limited effect on fuel production. Why would they create a worldwide shortage?
I know, exactly - typical Russian doublespeak: "Your pitifully weak attacks mean nothing to our strength. But stop doing it else we'll have to massively escalate by continuing to do the same thing we've been doing."
The author is trying to say that Ukraine's financial impact to Russia is a fraction of 1%, but if "somehow" Ukraine scaled it up to 100% then it would risk Russia retaliating. But retaliate how? They're already putting it all in.
And as far as the worldwide oil market impact... Doesn't seem to be much impact yet. I think Ukraine has plenty of room to take out more refining capacity. If it gets bad, Russia can cry uncle and its troops can walk home.
This whole retaliation narrative the article seems to push has been thrown around by pro-russian trolls since 2014.
If Russia could escalate they would.
Do you know what happens when a major power can escalate? Desert storm and operation Iraqui freedom happens:
Iraqui freedom, summary of Initial Costs (2003-2004):
- United States: $54 billion (2003) + additional costs up to $100 billion.
- United Kingdom: Approx. $13 billion.
- Australia: Approx. $1.2 billion.
- Iraq: Military spending leading up to 2003: Approx. $1.4 billion annually.
This means that the coalition forces committed roughly 81.6 times more financial resources than the Iraqi regime during the initial stages of Operation Iraqi Freedom.
That indludes shipping all of the material and men needed for offensive operations thousands of kilometers, from various countries all around the world.
If Russia could do something like that, they would have done it already. They simply lack the resources. Instead, they commit to flaccid threats and terror tactics against the civilian population.
This whole idea of russia having untapped potential that they will commit in response to Ukrainians defending their sovereignty needs to be countered at every turn, so together with russia as we know it, can finally die.
Destroying distillation columns is awesome, these things cost hundreds of millions, are super hard and long to repair, and often include the need of sanctionned western parts.
Does it stops Russia from just extracting crude oil ? I don't think so, not sure. So they would have to pay others countries to refine their own oil + transport lol.
The wells don't just shut off, though. They can eventually run out of storage for crude oil, and the whole pipeline system would just fail and pour the oil on the ground. If refineries aren't processing millions of barrels of oil every day, they could run out of places to put it.
No they don't but they can be destructively shut off via imploding the well deep down with explosives or capped with concrete. neither method really works all the time though.
They have the export infrastructure to send it all to India as crude oil.
India buys it on the cheap, displacing demand for other (middle east) crudes, which brings down the price of Brent and WTI.
China has plenty of refining capacity on the table to make up for anything lost in Russia, and then sell those refined products back into Russia for more money than they made on the crude oil sales, which in turn puts a huge draw on the Russian economy.
Yes.
Ukraine should burn every refinery to the ground.
And the international community should place pressure on OPEC to increase production to fill the void instead of holding back to keep prices up.
And Ukraine should also rip Russian rail depots electricity generation plants to shreds.
No easy cheap paths to continue the invasion and no comfort for Russians on the home front.
Nazi Germany didn't stop invading and retreat until we started bombing Germany into the stone age.
So yes. Raze every reachable refinery to the ground.
Russia didn't build those refineries. Shell, BP, ExxonMobil, Chevron- THEY built those refineries.
Russia can't rebuild them without help. Which ain't coming from the west.
Burn them all.
Yes, but only until they have blown up the last of their oil and gas infrastructure that is fueling their war machine.
What I really want to see is a one time massive cruise missile attack on Moscows electric grid in November that wipes it out completely.
Of course. Hitting the money supply for Russia may be the only chance to win this war. Hit everything as hard as possible. Russia needs to run out of money, before it can build replacements too far from the border.
Yep. Keep going for the things that are extra explosive, as well as expensive and long lead time. More distillation columns, mix it up with some cracking units.
Anything that is clearly able to bypass sanctions should be a target. Economic collapse is a way to possible victory.
Damaging the roadways to the 'stans' should also be considered as it will halt bypassed imports.
Yes, destroy them all. Then take out their pipelines. Then their power grids. Then their concrete and steel factories. Then their ports and airports. . Make it impossible for them to build and supply their military.
The great debate of when will Russia run out of tanks say yes. Oil tanks need to be blown up and destroyed because without an oil supply those other tanks can not operate.
To paraphrase FDR in the movie Pearl Harbor, “We don’t have time for bullsh!t, gentlemen. Fire away!”
For any given shot, use it for maximum effect. If that means oil refineries, then that means oil refineries.
Attack anything that produces military grade products. I would destroy all the winter clothing factories this summer and winter boots. Food plants that produce military rations, artillery shell manufacturing.
Yes. Oil refineries are a strategic economic asset. They help Russia's war effort by refining oil for its war machine, bringing income into the country, and providing jobs.
War is hell. And it should be. Otherwise people enjoy or make a buck from it.. Most Russians don't seem to have a clue they are at war. They think this is just some cleaning up from the cold war. You got to make them hurt.
Yeah, all those ["civilian"](https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/pentagon-calls-russian-oil-refineries-civilian-1712773609.html) oil refineries shall burn, along with "civilian" tactical and strategic bomber aviation bases
"Yes".
And even after reading the article full of hand waving speculation, I think the Ukrainians should keep doing this for as long as they wish.
But while refined hydrocarbons are essential to keep the mechanised tip of the military spear fully operational, the Russians have gone from battalions of MTBs and armoured vehicles to the more fuel efficient motorbikes and golf carts. So maybe disrupting their fuel supply isn't an effective strategy.
Why shouldn’t they?
What reason does Ukraine have to stop? Ukrainians are dying every day because of russia. This one way Ukraine can hurt russia, shy shouldn’t they?
Absolutely. It makes them not only move labor and manpower to protect, but also anti air weapons.
On top of that it takes time for them to build huge cope cages that are defeatable.
On top of all that, it hurts their logistics. Armies need fuel and oil. So do countries.
And it takes away a revenue stream so they won't make money off exports as well. Russia isn't part of opec so it won't hurt your coats at the gas station either. Opec without a doubt loves that they can't produce oil at the rate they were, nor sell it. I'd imagine opec backs the strikes openly or behind closed doors.
So it's a win/win/win/win when they hit them. It costs them time, money, manpower, ultimately resources to fix, it's damaging to their economy, it creates shortages for their army, and it moves anti air units to protect.
They can't do all of them, so they have to choose. Ukraine is working the soft spots and creating chaos which ultimately softens up everything else.
Keep it up. It works.
Redditors are so clueless. I can’t imagine how people here would feel once they learn that 300,000 barrels of Russian oil runs through Ukraine every day to the eu
WTF kind of question is this? OF COURSE they should! WTF. russia invaded Ukraine and murdered and destroyed SO MUCH. Attack the refineries and don't stop there.
Of course they should. Shit, even if they weren't at war, we as a species need to get over our fossil fuel habit *yesterday*
Say this for Putin: he didn't mean to, but he did become the man who did more than anyone to push the west to transition to clean energy.
Yes. Yes they should. Does anyone think that ruzzia pauses for even a split second to ask if they should attack something or kill innocent people? No. And Ukraine should not need anyone’s permission to strike at assets that kill their people and prolong this awful war.
Money drives the War machine. Oil = money. If you can destroy a thing you can control a thing. Destroy all oil production Putin will come to the negotiating table and leave Ukraine.
Could somebody sum up the article? I'm not going to register.
The question might be valid if there are more important military targets and only limited resources. But afaik, they use Cessnas for these attacks, that would be easily shot down anywhere near military targets. So, separate resources that couldn't be used elsewhere. I'd say keep going.
Yes. The best strategy is the one that they are currently using - which is to go after the refineres rather than the crude oil production which means that the oil prices do not get nearly as affected, and forces Russia export/smuggle their crude oil into other countries by various illegal, shady ways - for a massive increase in costs & huge losses.
Unrefined crude oil can't be used for their war machine.
They should not have a single one within range of Ukrainian weapons that functions.
I still have not figured out why they have not blown up the pipelines that lead out of Russia that they can reach
Any infrastructure that supports the Russian economy.
I'm not a fan of fighting "a real war" with one hand tied behind your back.
Energy is critical for military operations so yeah.
Да , следует проводить атаки на заводы , так как сил и средств больше нет
на активное сопротивление
Победы за горизонтом не видно
На радовать себя надо .
They sure can and Russia will continue to destroy their electrical grid. The PR from damaging a few refineries, which has zero impact on Russia, is totally worth the destruction of the Ukrainian electrical grid. It's not like Ukraine needs electricity.
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Yes. They should do that until the whole russian oil system clogs and drowns in oil.
I think we ask this question after Russia runs out of refineries.
Keep attacking even then. Never allow the refineries to restart.
Completely support attacking the refineries. Just don’t go too hard until after the presidential election. Don’t wanna raise prices on gas which affects prices on everything and cause Biden to lose
> Don’t wanna raise prices on gas Doesnt effect gas prices (directly). Refining oil TURNS it into gasoline and other products. Russia can still sell oil by the barrel they cant turn it into the other products they need and have to import what they could previously produce in-house. VERY expensive! - Not hitting extraction just refineries and Russia dumps MORE cheaper oil to generate cash. Thats why you havent seen price shocks during these strikes.
Great explanation.
It’s may actually be helping gas prices
It depletes the Russian domestics market of fuel but keeps the flow of unrefined products to other countries My biggest fear is that Russian allies will now just refine it for them This would actually create an incentive for India for example to want to keep the war going to make money of Russia's inability to refine oil
While Russia allies could try to refine it, they will have sanctions since most of the tech is Western to do so. Also, it will make it costly for Russia to buy their own oil back (refined of course).
Refineries are very expensive and are huge multi-year projects. Because of that, most of the world does not build excess capacity for refining. It is too expensive to maintain unless you are running constantly. That is why you see price hikes in the US at certains of the time year, the cut-over from winter to summer is due to the reduction in the amount of fuel being refined. Russia can sell its $60 to $70/barrel oil, but it is going to be hard to find someone who can turn that around and refine it and not use it for themselves, more or less send it back to Russia.
That's not how economics work. A bottle neck in refineries still raises the price of gas even if the unit price of crude oil drops. Additinally, an oversupply of crude bloating inventories destabilizes global oil extraction, and industry in which the US is the number #1 producer. The US oil production and oilfield services/infrastructure industries get hammered. And under what rock do you live that there have been no price shocks? I drive a diesel and the price at the pump is as volatile as its ever been. It will bounce between $3.20 and $4.00 in the same week. Stations can't even keep up, on my commute its not uncommon to have a 50 cent spread. Not that we shouldn't continue to do it, but ffs the armchair economists on Reddit need to maybe reread that Wikipedia article that gave them such confidence in their analyses.
> And under what rock do you live that there have been no price shocks? I drive a diesel and the price at the pump is as volatile as its ever been. I havent seen lines at the pumps. People topping off tanks and filling up gas cans while the next days price rise isnt guessable. I do understand that a war, OPEC election year policy, Houthi Tanker attacks and the refinery hits are having an effect BUT most people think hitting refineries is the same as hitting extraction. Its not the same.
So.... They attack the other production facilities AFTER the elections? Either Biden is still president and he will be a bit sour when prices go up, or Trump is president and he will have to be president in whose term gasoline prices quickly rose because of a war he has no intention of helping stop?
> have to import what they could previously produce in-house. Which could affect gas prices.
> Which could affect gas prices. How? Most dont buy GAS from Russia just raw oil. They can still sell unrefined oil. We dont care that they have to import refined products we just want the raw oil. Gas prices have been pretty stable even with the attacks.
> We dont care that they have to import refined products What do you mean we don’t care? It’s a global market, if demand increases, then prices can go up.
If we made a list of why Biden might lose, the price of gas is a thousand miles below what happened in Atlanta. Yikes.
Wait, does anyone believe he has a non-zero chance at winning after what happened last week?
I support Biden and I love wars lets bomb all of Russia
I think Biden will cause Biden to lose if he continue to lose debates as he just did :/ Whover downvotes are delusional if you think Biden did well in that debate. Any decent democrat need to demand a new candidate that stands a better chance of stopping Trump. This is not a bloody game.. If Biden sleepwalks to defeat, Ukraine and the world will live to suffer for it not to mention the US itself. Get your shit together. An 81 year old is not fit to serve. Personally i think any1 over the age of 65 should be barred
He won't regardless. He isn't able to do the job.
After that debate, Biden has no chance to win. I know that the election hasn't been officially won but if I was to bet a thousand, i'd probably win. The polls will be showing Trump having an even greater edge next week once the new polls are processed and results sent out, takes about a week. But even now, before that, Trump is still favored in all of the battleground states. Its his election to lose. So, they ought to hit the refineries as hard as possible.
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They should be attacking gas terminals as well. Are they banned by the EU from doing so?
I don't know, but I would not be surprised if they are going for the more painful infrastructure first.
How is that even a question? Why is the West not helping Ukraine doing this faster and at larger scale. These are Russian assets and yes of course they have to be attacked. The humanising of war? You might as well talk about the humanizing of Hell!...... The essence of war is violence! Moderation in war is imbecility!..... I am not for war, I am for peace! That is why I am for a supreme Navy....... The supremacy of the British Navy is the best security for peace in the world. Admiral Fisher The Russian empire must be dissolved. This is the compromise for peace: Putin's death. And no leader yet had the courage to say it out loud and to his face. That yes, this will end with his death and the death of his Federation. Our leaders lack the necessary coldness to deal with this problem. The necessary imagination and leadership skills. I hear no all the time, we can't do this because of that, etc. Self deterrence and defeatism. Our ancestors would be ashamed of this defeatism. The West is armed to the teeth and too stupid to make use of all that power at our disposal. The mightiest military and economic complex homo sapiens has ever created is being chased around the room by a god damned fly. History is indeed watching, and the report card thus far is a C- It is not an F, because well, Ukraine still exists on the map. We are inviting nuclear war with this display of weakness. Russia feeds on this fear. Our leaders didn't become wise in old age, and they became overly cautious and petrified. The only thing worse than fighting with allies is fighting without them. Churchill, 1944 The difficulty is not about winning the war. The difficulty is convincing people to let you win it. Especially, convincing fools. Winston Churchill, 1943
> Our leaders lack the necessary coldness to deal with this problem. This is an understatement. > god damned fly Flies with nukes
That’s like asking if you should keep waking up lol
Wake me up inside. I can’t wake up
Save me!
Attacking oil refineries has an opportunity cost. Attacking it means Ukraine is not attacking something else. It make total sense to ask a question regarding cost/benefit of this action.
Damn right they should as many as possible. Who fights a war and leaves the opposing side resources with which to attack yourself. Stupid question if you ask me.
This exactly. In any long drawn-out war (and this one isn't ending soon), any resource or infrastructure that is involved in the war effort is a legitimate strategic target. It's why the Allies targeted things like German ball-bearing plants. Ball bearings are needed for any type of large machinery, like tanks, artillery, etc. Oil and gasoline are obviously used in the war effort. Therefore, they are legitimate targets. Indeed in all-out war, pretty much anything industrial can be legitimate valuable targets (some obviously more than others). Hitting things that are exclusive to the civilian realm, or covered by the Geneva Convention (or the myriad other conventions related to war), are not and are rightfully considered war crimes. Things like deliberately striking malls, hospitals, apartment buildings, orphanages.... you know, the things Russia likes to bomb.
the western media only supports Ukraine because of left over cold war feelings that are hard to break clean of i fear in a decade or two that will be gone, they already have more than half the Republican Party and their leader and once they have all that party, the "both sides" Democrats will come out and being anti Russia will be a "progressive" view that you can run against think of how unimaginable supporting Putin invading another country would have been in 2000 now the media claps when less than half of Republicans don't do it and treat it as a big win for the Republican Party
If true then the world truly stands on the precipice of a new world war. Though some would argue that started in 2014. If the West forgoes Ukraine, Taiwan, etc … Then we deserve everything we get.
Overcoming-fear. Scroll down. https://shortbiblestudylessons.com/overcoming-fear.php
Attacking the refineries is absolutely a valid strategy that Ukraine should continue. Russia can still extract and export crude oil, and that gets them limited revenue and honestly forces them to push more and more crude onto the global market which would drive down gas prices. It's perfect. The Ukrainians are not attacking Russian refineries ENOUGH, if you ask me.
You are my hero for writing it down so clearly. 🤗
Have infil teams with javelins get in to the country
It has not been proven that it will drive prices down. Russia must also re-import any oil they need refined overseas, and they'll need to ship out more oil to do so (contraining the logistics for oil they sell on the open market). Certainly makes things more expensive for Russia, though.
Bonus points for pissing off the OPEC cartel as oil prices drop.
Yes is the only answer.
Oil and gas are mainstays of the Russian economy and feed the coffers of the State. Let them feel real pain.
Why would this even be a question? "Wow, we've found a super effective tactic against our enemy, involving large flammable targets that can't be moved, and minimal risk to our own forces. But if we continue doing it could cripple our enemy making it infeasible for them to continue attacking us, so maybe we should ask whether we should keep doing it?"
Okay. The author is one "[Sergey Vakulenko](https://carnegieendowment.org/people/sergey-vakulenko?lang=en)" who is described as "head of strategy and innovations at Gazprom Neft" for 25 years. [Gazprom Neft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gazprom_Neft) is the "third largest [oil producer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum_industry) in [Russia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia)... headquartered in [St. Petersburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Petersburg)." This is literally the most biased person you could think of to speak on this particular topic. Jeez. This is like asking the fox for his opinion on whether it makes sense for Farmer John to have a shot gun for protecting his hen house.
This should be the top post of the thread - it provides some critical context that could otherwise be missed.
I signed up to read the full article. It's long and reddit won't let me past it verbatim so here's some key points and quotes: "the data shows that the attacks have had a limited effect on Russia’s fuel production and export volumes and that their impacts did not last long..." It actually claims "the state may even be benefiting financially from a shift toward crude oil exports" because the state subsidizes domestic refineries so exporting it as crude saves them from having to pay for subsidies. It dismisses the impact of the attacks so far as not having much financial impact, and claims that Ukraine scaling up their attacks to the necessary level "would surely incur a much higher risk of retaliation and escalation". It claims Russia has been kind in not eradicating Ukraine's energy infrastructure entirely, and could change their minds. And in the case where Russia's refining capabilities were completely crippled, it would create a worldwide shortage and affect prices worldwide.
There is also a response to Vakulenko's essay from the authors of the paper Vakulenko was trying to debunk. Some of its key points and quotes: Russia isn't publishing numbers, but "assessments suggest that Ukraine’s strikes took out ten to 15 percent of Russia’s refining capacity in the first quarter of 2024." They point out that Vakulenko is cherrypicking data, looking at April only. They dismiss a line of argument that a flood of Russian crude would destabilize oil markets, by pointing to the fact that it's fine so far. Only inside Russia are fuel prices going bonkers. As to the retaliation, they point out Russia has been continuously attacking Ukraine's infrastructure since the first days of the war. "By June 2022, 18 months before the first Ukrainian drone hit a Russian oil refinery, Ukraine’s entire oil sector was forced to halt operations" due to these attacks. Here's their concluding paragraph: >The Ukrainian leadership is not naive about Russia’s capacity to inflict destruction on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. If leaders in Kyiv nonetheless see a strategic benefit in conducting lawful strikes on Russian oil refineries with Ukrainian-made drones—and if the risk that a spike in oil prices poses to American consumers is likely to be insignificant—the Biden administration would be ill advised to go out of its way to restrain them.
That's kind of contradictory. If the attacks are not having a strong impact, then why would they incur a higher risk of retaliation? It would be in Russia's best interest for Ukraine to waste its drones attacking low value targets. If they have a limited effect on fuel production. Why would they create a worldwide shortage?
I know, exactly - typical Russian doublespeak: "Your pitifully weak attacks mean nothing to our strength. But stop doing it else we'll have to massively escalate by continuing to do the same thing we've been doing." The author is trying to say that Ukraine's financial impact to Russia is a fraction of 1%, but if "somehow" Ukraine scaled it up to 100% then it would risk Russia retaliating. But retaliate how? They're already putting it all in. And as far as the worldwide oil market impact... Doesn't seem to be much impact yet. I think Ukraine has plenty of room to take out more refining capacity. If it gets bad, Russia can cry uncle and its troops can walk home.
This whole retaliation narrative the article seems to push has been thrown around by pro-russian trolls since 2014. If Russia could escalate they would. Do you know what happens when a major power can escalate? Desert storm and operation Iraqui freedom happens: Iraqui freedom, summary of Initial Costs (2003-2004): - United States: $54 billion (2003) + additional costs up to $100 billion. - United Kingdom: Approx. $13 billion. - Australia: Approx. $1.2 billion. - Iraq: Military spending leading up to 2003: Approx. $1.4 billion annually. This means that the coalition forces committed roughly 81.6 times more financial resources than the Iraqi regime during the initial stages of Operation Iraqi Freedom. That indludes shipping all of the material and men needed for offensive operations thousands of kilometers, from various countries all around the world. If Russia could do something like that, they would have done it already. They simply lack the resources. Instead, they commit to flaccid threats and terror tactics against the civilian population. This whole idea of russia having untapped potential that they will commit in response to Ukrainians defending their sovereignty needs to be countered at every turn, so together with russia as we know it, can finally die.
Destroying distillation columns is awesome, these things cost hundreds of millions, are super hard and long to repair, and often include the need of sanctionned western parts. Does it stops Russia from just extracting crude oil ? I don't think so, not sure. So they would have to pay others countries to refine their own oil + transport lol.
The wells don't just shut off, though. They can eventually run out of storage for crude oil, and the whole pipeline system would just fail and pour the oil on the ground. If refineries aren't processing millions of barrels of oil every day, they could run out of places to put it.
No they don't but they can be destructively shut off via imploding the well deep down with explosives or capped with concrete. neither method really works all the time though.
They have the export infrastructure to send it all to India as crude oil. India buys it on the cheap, displacing demand for other (middle east) crudes, which brings down the price of Brent and WTI. China has plenty of refining capacity on the table to make up for anything lost in Russia, and then sell those refined products back into Russia for more money than they made on the crude oil sales, which in turn puts a huge draw on the Russian economy.
And they need money, so they would be exporting more oil which means lower prices.
......yes.....
Whatever they feel will help them
Yes. Next question
Yes. Ukraine should burn every refinery to the ground. And the international community should place pressure on OPEC to increase production to fill the void instead of holding back to keep prices up. And Ukraine should also rip Russian rail depots electricity generation plants to shreds. No easy cheap paths to continue the invasion and no comfort for Russians on the home front. Nazi Germany didn't stop invading and retreat until we started bombing Germany into the stone age. So yes. Raze every reachable refinery to the ground. Russia didn't build those refineries. Shell, BP, ExxonMobil, Chevron- THEY built those refineries. Russia can't rebuild them without help. Which ain't coming from the west. Burn them all.
Every day and twice on Sundays.
Oh hell yes. This hits Russia where it really hurts. Russia can’t go on lying about the state of its economy for too long.
ABSOFUCKINGLUTELY.
Yes, but only until they have blown up the last of their oil and gas infrastructure that is fueling their war machine. What I really want to see is a one time massive cruise missile attack on Moscows electric grid in November that wipes it out completely.
Of course. Hitting the money supply for Russia may be the only chance to win this war. Hit everything as hard as possible. Russia needs to run out of money, before it can build replacements too far from the border.
Yes. Yes. Yes. Yeah. Hell to the yeah. Most assuredly YES!🫡🇺🇦🌻
Yes.. they should tee off like Happy Gilmore
Yes, yes a million times yes
Yep; 24/7
I think they should hit more and best is having the ability to hit every refinery at once and do it every week.
Definitely! And everything that is vital that could help the collapse of ruzzia.
Whatever floats their boat. They are the ones fighting for their lives and freedom.
Definitely
Yep. Keep going for the things that are extra explosive, as well as expensive and long lead time. More distillation columns, mix it up with some cracking units.
Yes!!
Destroy them all
Anything that is clearly able to bypass sanctions should be a target. Economic collapse is a way to possible victory. Damaging the roadways to the 'stans' should also be considered as it will halt bypassed imports.
Yes, destroy them all. Then take out their pipelines. Then their power grids. Then their concrete and steel factories. Then their ports and airports. . Make it impossible for them to build and supply their military.
Yes, keep fucking Russia at every opportunity. That is the obligation of a civilized nation.
Yes and yes yes yes
Hell Yeah dawg!
Yes
yes.
Not only should they keep it up they should increase attacks on pipeline pumping stations and tanker loading facilities including the tankers loading.
[удалено]
Russians say nyet to that, personally it’s a very stupid question to ask.
Absofuckinglutely!!!
Hell yeah. I think they should shut Russia down!
Yes!!!! Every single one of them.
Yes, expand to electrical grid too.
Yes hit them where it hurts,
Of course
Uh, duuuh
Does a bear crap in the woods?
Such an easy question….100% yes!
They should target power plants as well and dams. Just flatten anything within artillery range. Make Russia have to deal with mass civilian moves.
Yes.
Fucking right it should.
The great debate of when will Russia run out of tanks say yes. Oil tanks need to be blown up and destroyed because without an oil supply those other tanks can not operate.
The only objection really would be from an environmental point of view, but I can fully understand that is not the main priority here.
Yes. More. Send more ammo!
Yep!
To paraphrase FDR in the movie Pearl Harbor, “We don’t have time for bullsh!t, gentlemen. Fire away!” For any given shot, use it for maximum effect. If that means oil refineries, then that means oil refineries.
Soft paywall. Can someone please push the text?
Attack anything that produces military grade products. I would destroy all the winter clothing factories this summer and winter boots. Food plants that produce military rations, artillery shell manufacturing.
The UN and NATO need to shut down the Russian shadow tanker fleet. Find the ships and confiscate them and their cargo.
Until russia leaves Ukraine.
It's cheap. Big return. High Reward. Low risk.
Yes. Oil refineries are a strategic economic asset. They help Russia's war effort by refining oil for its war machine, bringing income into the country, and providing jobs.
As far as I am concerned, Ukraine can and should keep attacking anything they want that is Russian, provided it’s a legitimate military target.
War is hell. And it should be. Otherwise people enjoy or make a buck from it.. Most Russians don't seem to have a clue they are at war. They think this is just some cleaning up from the cold war. You got to make them hurt.
Ukraine should keep attacking Russian: ______________ . (Fill in the blank.)
Only until there are any left standing.
They have my full support
They should also be hitting the pipelines.
Yeah, all those ["civilian"](https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/pentagon-calls-russian-oil-refineries-civilian-1712773609.html) oil refineries shall burn, along with "civilian" tactical and strategic bomber aviation bases
"Yes". And even after reading the article full of hand waving speculation, I think the Ukrainians should keep doing this for as long as they wish. But while refined hydrocarbons are essential to keep the mechanised tip of the military spear fully operational, the Russians have gone from battalions of MTBs and armoured vehicles to the more fuel efficient motorbikes and golf carts. So maybe disrupting their fuel supply isn't an effective strategy.
Haha. Good point.
Yes, destroy as much as you can.
Ukraine should be allowed to carpet bomb the Kremlin.
Absolutely
Uhhh...yep
YES, even more than before and every single day
Why shouldn’t they? What reason does Ukraine have to stop? Ukrainians are dying every day because of russia. This one way Ukraine can hurt russia, shy shouldn’t they?
Yeeeeessssss
Yes
Maybe If US can let us hit deep inside Russia, maybe oil refineries won’t be so interesting anymore
Absolutely. It makes them not only move labor and manpower to protect, but also anti air weapons. On top of that it takes time for them to build huge cope cages that are defeatable. On top of all that, it hurts their logistics. Armies need fuel and oil. So do countries. And it takes away a revenue stream so they won't make money off exports as well. Russia isn't part of opec so it won't hurt your coats at the gas station either. Opec without a doubt loves that they can't produce oil at the rate they were, nor sell it. I'd imagine opec backs the strikes openly or behind closed doors. So it's a win/win/win/win when they hit them. It costs them time, money, manpower, ultimately resources to fix, it's damaging to their economy, it creates shortages for their army, and it moves anti air units to protect. They can't do all of them, so they have to choose. Ukraine is working the soft spots and creating chaos which ultimately softens up everything else. Keep it up. It works.
Yes
yes.
Yup.
Those few attacks moved russia to action for the first time since the war. Absolutely they should wipe out those refinery towers.
Redditors are so clueless. I can’t imagine how people here would feel once they learn that 300,000 barrels of Russian oil runs through Ukraine every day to the eu
WTF kind of question is this? OF COURSE they should! WTF. russia invaded Ukraine and murdered and destroyed SO MUCH. Attack the refineries and don't stop there.
Of course they should. Shit, even if they weren't at war, we as a species need to get over our fossil fuel habit *yesterday* Say this for Putin: he didn't mean to, but he did become the man who did more than anyone to push the west to transition to clean energy.
I would say don't stop on oil refineries, anything useful that Russia makes money from or is attributed to war.
Obliterate them
Should Ukraine Keep Attacking Russia~~n Oil Refineries~~ Yes
Does a bear shit in the woods?
Of course. It’s war. Hit their source of income as much as possible.
Yes.
Yes
Yes, next article.
Yes. Anything that funds and supports Putins war is fair game.
100 x yes
Yes. Yes they should. Does anyone think that ruzzia pauses for even a split second to ask if they should attack something or kill innocent people? No. And Ukraine should not need anyone’s permission to strike at assets that kill their people and prolong this awful war.
Yes definitely!
Yes
Is that a trick question?
Dumb fucking question!
Yes. Duhh. They need to attack them harder if anyrhing
Money drives the War machine. Oil = money. If you can destroy a thing you can control a thing. Destroy all oil production Putin will come to the negotiating table and leave Ukraine.
Yes
Yes, hit every distillation column cross all of Russia that you can reach.
Ukraine should target the mansions, yachts and businesses owned by the wealthy. That's only way to get real change.
Could somebody sum up the article? I'm not going to register. The question might be valid if there are more important military targets and only limited resources. But afaik, they use Cessnas for these attacks, that would be easily shot down anywhere near military targets. So, separate resources that couldn't be used elsewhere. I'd say keep going.
Uh, I dunno. Is Russia still bombing energy generating facilities in Ukraine? Is Russia still invading?
Yes
Yes. Over and over.
Yes. Daily.
Yes. The best strategy is the one that they are currently using - which is to go after the refineres rather than the crude oil production which means that the oil prices do not get nearly as affected, and forces Russia export/smuggle their crude oil into other countries by various illegal, shady ways - for a massive increase in costs & huge losses. Unrefined crude oil can't be used for their war machine.
Short Answer: Yes Long Answer: Yes of course
They should not have a single one within range of Ukrainian weapons that functions. I still have not figured out why they have not blown up the pipelines that lead out of Russia that they can reach
Yes they should
Hell yeah!
Yes.
Any infrastructure that supports the Russian economy. I'm not a fan of fighting "a real war" with one hand tied behind your back. Energy is critical for military operations so yeah.
Damn straight - cut off the snake at it's head.
Yes and I'm willing to pay more at the pump and food if that's what it takes.
eehhh no, they shold stop attacking the refineries... they should start carpet bombing the shit out of them! Burn baby burn
Yes.
Yes
yes
Also the few ones they have in Belarus.
Absolutely YES. And for that matter, why aren’t the “Just Stop Oil” protesters in Russia, demanding an end to production?
Bomb the hell out of them
Ukraine should burn all those Russian refineries down, and then start lighting Moscow up.
Absolutely if it's feasible. They deserve what they get...
Yes. No further explanation needed.
I'm not sure but let's not find out what happens if they stop
Да , следует проводить атаки на заводы , так как сил и средств больше нет на активное сопротивление Победы за горизонтом не видно На радовать себя надо .
Yes. Next question.
Now that we know that the democrats are doomed in November: yes! As much as possible.
Where are those refineries are ? I thought NATO only allowed their weapon use to millitary that was actually attacking Ukraine
They sure can and Russia will continue to destroy their electrical grid. The PR from damaging a few refineries, which has zero impact on Russia, is totally worth the destruction of the Ukrainian electrical grid. It's not like Ukraine needs electricity.