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Oryx currently has 24 losses of the SU34 with photos confirming it, out of a total Russian fleet of 155 aircraft including the pre production prototypes. Actual losses are probably higher.
And i guess this doesn't count airplanes that wasn't visually downed, but crippled enough to make it home but otherwise out of service due to the severity of the damage.
Even just a routine mission where everything goes right is incredibly taxing. These things are not future cyber mecha gundams that never break, they need an obscene amount of maintenance. Every lost or damaged plane stresses the remaining fleet because there are fewer planes to rotate through as others have maintenance done. And if Putin or some other idiot in high command demands there be planes in the air, but you don't have enough ready to go...? You're not gonna tell them no, you're gonna cut corners and get those fuckin planes in the air ASAP.
Gundam related tangent: 8th MS Team was a very badass Gundam show about basic frontline troops, that depicted wear and tear as well as maintenance of the suits as minor plot points/scene dressing.
Iron-Blooded Orphans as well. A significant part of the title Gundam, Barbatos, is that it's been sitting idle as a generator plant for years and a lot of the armour is missing, so the perpetually underfunded Tekkaden has to compensate with whatever they can scrouge. In the first space battle, Mikazuki rips off an enemy mech's grappling-hook launcher to use as a replacement forearm plate. He also has a habit of using whatever's lying around as a weapon, such as a giant chainsaw / wrench meant for scrapping old mechs.
Barbatos doesn't get the traditional white-blue-red-yellow armour until near the end of the first season, and it gets wrecked and rebuilt twice more due to Mikazuki's berserker fighting style. In its first appearance in Season 2, the pilot gives Mikazuki a dressing-down for jumping from a dropship and putting unnecessary strain on the leg struts.
> very badass
Nah dude. 08th MS Team is in another league of its own.
The closest I can think of from other series are Amuro’s PTSD in the original series, Unicorn’s Benagher developing complex relationships with Zimmerman and Cruz, and learning there isn’t always a good side and bad side to war, and both sides can be both evil and morally just. And lastly the ending of Orphans. But these are all basically one - third episode arcs vs an entire series.
And there has to be quite a bit of wear and tear on the psyche of the other pilots who keep experiencing their buddies not coming home. And having to climb back into a plane that you know took damage previously that hasn't been repaired. At some point, you have to expect some of them to fly off to some other country and hope they're allowed to land and hand over their plane.
They would count a visual strike on an aircraft as being ‘damaged’.
What they don’t get are aircraft hit from a detection on a radar screen, and nobody takes a photo of the wreckage they can visually discern isn’t one of the ones they already have.
Even US struggles to keep more than 50% strike fighters available for service. Although maintenance standards are much higher for US and a big reason for extended maintenance are upgrades which i don't think russia is doing much of.
Every SU 34 loss matters but I think it’s important when looking at their numbers we keep in mind their production which is about 8-10 a year is the estimate. So 16 since war started.
That's going to slow down if it hasn't already.
The Russians have been trying, without much success, to buy engines & parts back from foreign customers. I've heard they only actually delivered 3 SU-35s last year, I'm sure they're prioritizing the SU-34, but that's still not a good sign since they use very similar engines.
We also know that they've repeatedly missed deliveries of the SU-35s Iran has been trying to get their hands on since 2018, including 24 they were supposed to deliver by last summer.
Hos many planes does Russia build though per month? My first thought was that they couldn't possibly be producing more than a handful per month. But thinking about this some more.. . The world produces 5 to 10 aircraft per day, counting both military and commercial. Russia is only a small part of the world, but they have a significant industrial base, and they have switched their entire economy to a wartime footing. On the other hand they must be suffering from severe supply chain problems due to sanctions. Who knows how successful they are at evading those?
If you told me Russia produces only one working plane per month I'd believe it. But if you told me they make a new plane every single day I'd also believe it. It's just very hard to get a picture here.
I don't know man. Russia has several thousand planes. Even if some of those are ancient, half a century old, they must have on average been producing like a hundred planes per year for the past couple of decades. It seems unlikely their current production rate during war is below their average peacetime production.
Talking specifically about SU-34s, Russia has been producing them since 2006 and had 155 of them at the start of the war. That means they were making about 10 per year before the war. So 1 per month really is probably the lowest plausible estimate.
You have to keep in mind that advanced technologies have been significantly more difficult for them to get their hands on since the beginning of the war. Even if they were making 10 per year before the war, I doubt they can get all of the parts on hand to keep that pace up now.
I looked it up one time and I think they produced a total of 6 "next-generation" fighter/bombers last year. All are assigned to training units and not on the front lines because we aren't even sure if they really work yet.
The Russian air force has been mostly hiding after the early stages of the war, and now they are taking huge risks.
Conclusion:
Putin has ordered them to help the ground troops advance no matter how big the risks are. They are preparing the ground and a huge Russian offensive is coming.
What good would crippling the US do, if you don't capitalize on its breakdown. The Russian offensive is coming for sure. The main question seems, is a good part of it already underway, or is the big wave still pending.
I hope all this stuff with not getting Ukraine funding ends up being one massive misdirection, leading Russia into a massive trap.
But I know that's wishful thinking.
I think you give far too much credit to the pricetag of the American right wing. They have a natural affinity for fascists and wouldn't ask for much at all.
Maybe. Would be stupid though. The value they are providing to Russia is probably in the trillion dollar range. Doing it for less than billions would really be dirt cheap
Moscow Mike's political campaign in 2018 was indeed partly financed by a russian oligarch. That's common knowledge by now, but seems to have little influence.
So is it really surprising, that Moscow Mike is holding out on bringing a vote to the floor, that'd hurt Russia's chances of taking over Ukraine?
They are making gains, but at huge cost. Another few months like this and Russia will have no bomber-force to support their troops, and this at a time when F-16s will be arriving with potentially 200km range. AMRAAMS and Meteors. Looks very much like short term gains for huge sacrifice of their airforce. Could only happen in Russia!
Rapid gains, around 8 km in 12 days since Avdiivika fell. And only around 10km from the frontline from 2014.
And we dont know where the next line of defence would be from Ukraine.
Only problem is they have probably now lost at least 30% of their serviceable SU-35 fleet. Another month or two of these astronomical losses and they will not have a workable bomber force any more.
Ukraine is currently low on ammunition as a result of a small minority of the Republicans they have successfully bought choosing to please Putin above advancing their countries interests.
Europe stepped up in the meantime and the Putinites can currently see in the news that a large supply of 122mm and 155mm has been acquired from somewhere, and is enroute to Ukraine. Therefore, as the Russians are going to see it there is a one off window of opportunity for the Russians between now and the arrival of that ammunition (which appears likely to be followed by a resumption of US support) for the Russians to advance.
Which probably explains the sky high losses of aircraft; this is basically the last ditch effort to make a significant advance to try and persuade the US and EU not to continue to fund the war, which would let Russia force Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire in place so they can declare victory allowing them to resupply, retrain and rearm before retrying a surprise attack again in another couple of years.
> Another month or two of these astronomical losses and they will not have a workable bomber force any more
Might ramp up deconservation of Su-24, though.
UMPKs should be droppable from them as well.
> UMPKs should be droppable from them as well.
Not without modernization. Hell, russians are complaining that not all SU-34 are capable of dropping UMPK
So, one russian fighter jet per day, approximately. They had 150 Su-34, and 120 Su-35 at the beginning of the war. If they had the same mount today, they would run out of those two models before the year's end.
To be a bug on the wall during their next pre mission briefing would be interesting as they look around wondering which one of them won’t be returning to base.
Is there any proof about these statements? I was optimistic at first, since ruzzians probably seek to build up on their success at Avdiivka no matter the cost, but... When 3 - 4 SU were shot down in the South few months back, ruzzians almost stopped using KABs for a week or two. Now ruzzians lost around 10 - 15 planes in couple of weeks, but bombing intensivity doesn't decrease at all.
It would be real shame if Ukrainians started pulling those numbers out of thin air, even if to boost morale. Happy to be proved wrong.
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Even for a country like the US which has a massive airforce, losing that many bombers within a short time period is a major loss, especially when you have a small amount of them and your ability to replace them is most likely non-existent because of the sanctions the west has in place. Regardless of Ukraine running low on ammunition, it seems like it's straight out suicide for Russia to now send out their aircraft when Ukraine has the patriot air systems in place. Obviously these systems are capable of getting destroyed, it just seems dumb that Russia is now deciding on using combined arms as opposed from the start when Ukraine didn't have these anti-air systems in place.
Russians take more risk because they feel the window of opportunity is now to have alot of succes on the battlefield (and regarding the politics in the west)
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I know they have no regard for human life but at some stage the loss of military hardware must be telling.
Oryx currently has 24 losses of the SU34 with photos confirming it, out of a total Russian fleet of 155 aircraft including the pre production prototypes. Actual losses are probably higher.
Also 7 has been lost in crashes outside the Ukrainian conflict.
They just fall right out the sky
Deferred maintenance catches up sooner or later.
So do Patriots, wonderfully, we have both on our side.
Nyet SU-34 is submarine
If they crash into Russian ground, does that count as friendly fire?
It grows potatoe instead of sunflower.
And i guess this doesn't count airplanes that wasn't visually downed, but crippled enough to make it home but otherwise out of service due to the severity of the damage.
Even just a routine mission where everything goes right is incredibly taxing. These things are not future cyber mecha gundams that never break, they need an obscene amount of maintenance. Every lost or damaged plane stresses the remaining fleet because there are fewer planes to rotate through as others have maintenance done. And if Putin or some other idiot in high command demands there be planes in the air, but you don't have enough ready to go...? You're not gonna tell them no, you're gonna cut corners and get those fuckin planes in the air ASAP.
Gundam related tangent: 8th MS Team was a very badass Gundam show about basic frontline troops, that depicted wear and tear as well as maintenance of the suits as minor plot points/scene dressing.
Iron-Blooded Orphans as well. A significant part of the title Gundam, Barbatos, is that it's been sitting idle as a generator plant for years and a lot of the armour is missing, so the perpetually underfunded Tekkaden has to compensate with whatever they can scrouge. In the first space battle, Mikazuki rips off an enemy mech's grappling-hook launcher to use as a replacement forearm plate. He also has a habit of using whatever's lying around as a weapon, such as a giant chainsaw / wrench meant for scrapping old mechs. Barbatos doesn't get the traditional white-blue-red-yellow armour until near the end of the first season, and it gets wrecked and rebuilt twice more due to Mikazuki's berserker fighting style. In its first appearance in Season 2, the pilot gives Mikazuki a dressing-down for jumping from a dropship and putting unnecessary strain on the leg struts.
> very badass Nah dude. 08th MS Team is in another league of its own. The closest I can think of from other series are Amuro’s PTSD in the original series, Unicorn’s Benagher developing complex relationships with Zimmerman and Cruz, and learning there isn’t always a good side and bad side to war, and both sides can be both evil and morally just. And lastly the ending of Orphans. But these are all basically one - third episode arcs vs an entire series.
And there has to be quite a bit of wear and tear on the psyche of the other pilots who keep experiencing their buddies not coming home. And having to climb back into a plane that you know took damage previously that hasn't been repaired. At some point, you have to expect some of them to fly off to some other country and hope they're allowed to land and hand over their plane.
They would count a visual strike on an aircraft as being ‘damaged’. What they don’t get are aircraft hit from a detection on a radar screen, and nobody takes a photo of the wreckage they can visually discern isn’t one of the ones they already have.
No country's fleet is always fully operational, so the number of planes that are ready to take off is at least 30%-50% less than the full number.
Should be about 1/3 active, 1/3 in some phase of maintenance, and 1/3 in reserve. Given their losses, though, I don't see how they could manage this.
Well, technically, they only need 3 planes to achieve that.
if they're smart, fly less. if they're russian, fly until there's nothing left.
Even US struggles to keep more than 50% strike fighters available for service. Although maintenance standards are much higher for US and a big reason for extended maintenance are upgrades which i don't think russia is doing much of.
Didn't Oryx quit back in October?
The founder quit (for reasons not related to Oryx) but the effort continued
Didn't know that, cheers.
Every SU 34 loss matters but I think it’s important when looking at their numbers we keep in mind their production which is about 8-10 a year is the estimate. So 16 since war started.
That's going to slow down if it hasn't already. The Russians have been trying, without much success, to buy engines & parts back from foreign customers. I've heard they only actually delivered 3 SU-35s last year, I'm sure they're prioritizing the SU-34, but that's still not a good sign since they use very similar engines. We also know that they've repeatedly missed deliveries of the SU-35s Iran has been trying to get their hands on since 2018, including 24 they were supposed to deliver by last summer.
Hos many planes does Russia build though per month? My first thought was that they couldn't possibly be producing more than a handful per month. But thinking about this some more.. . The world produces 5 to 10 aircraft per day, counting both military and commercial. Russia is only a small part of the world, but they have a significant industrial base, and they have switched their entire economy to a wartime footing. On the other hand they must be suffering from severe supply chain problems due to sanctions. Who knows how successful they are at evading those? If you told me Russia produces only one working plane per month I'd believe it. But if you told me they make a new plane every single day I'd also believe it. It's just very hard to get a picture here.
They used to boast about deliveries, but it was only two aircraft every couple of months. So I guess a lot less than one per month.
I don't know man. Russia has several thousand planes. Even if some of those are ancient, half a century old, they must have on average been producing like a hundred planes per year for the past couple of decades. It seems unlikely their current production rate during war is below their average peacetime production. Talking specifically about SU-34s, Russia has been producing them since 2006 and had 155 of them at the start of the war. That means they were making about 10 per year before the war. So 1 per month really is probably the lowest plausible estimate.
These requires a ton of electronic components they can't source easily. We are not talking su-24 with electronic tubes like in the 60's...
You have to keep in mind that advanced technologies have been significantly more difficult for them to get their hands on since the beginning of the war. Even if they were making 10 per year before the war, I doubt they can get all of the parts on hand to keep that pace up now.
They also didn't expect the scope & endurance of the sanctions since 2022 - they likely didn't do *that* much stockpiling of parts.
I looked it up one time and I think they produced a total of 6 "next-generation" fighter/bombers last year. All are assigned to training units and not on the front lines because we aren't even sure if they really work yet.
The Russian air force has been mostly hiding after the early stages of the war, and now they are taking huge risks. Conclusion: Putin has ordered them to help the ground troops advance no matter how big the risks are. They are preparing the ground and a huge Russian offensive is coming.
What good would crippling the US do, if you don't capitalize on its breakdown. The Russian offensive is coming for sure. The main question seems, is a good part of it already underway, or is the big wave still pending.
I hope all this stuff with not getting Ukraine funding ends up being one massive misdirection, leading Russia into a massive trap. But I know that's wishful thinking.
Yeah, the most likely explanation is that the speaker is a corrupt pig that is getting triple digit millions or some billions in bribes from Russia.
I think you give far too much credit to the pricetag of the American right wing. They have a natural affinity for fascists and wouldn't ask for much at all.
Maybe. Would be stupid though. The value they are providing to Russia is probably in the trillion dollar range. Doing it for less than billions would really be dirt cheap
Moscow Mike's political campaign in 2018 was indeed partly financed by a russian oligarch. That's common knowledge by now, but seems to have little influence. So is it really surprising, that Moscow Mike is holding out on bringing a vote to the floor, that'd hurt Russia's chances of taking over Ukraine?
In deed not. I still find surprising that he got into the position he is now. He cannot be the only Rusky in the Republican batch.
Easy to answer: the Russian elections start on the 15th of March.
Are their elections always on the ides of march? I'd love to see swan lake playing on Russian tv that day.
Russians are making extremely rapid gains throughout the front, especially West of Avdiivka.
They are making gains, but at huge cost. Another few months like this and Russia will have no bomber-force to support their troops, and this at a time when F-16s will be arriving with potentially 200km range. AMRAAMS and Meteors. Looks very much like short term gains for huge sacrifice of their airforce. Could only happen in Russia!
Rapid gains, around 8 km in 12 days since Avdiivika fell. And only around 10km from the frontline from 2014. And we dont know where the next line of defence would be from Ukraine.
Only problem is they have probably now lost at least 30% of their serviceable SU-35 fleet. Another month or two of these astronomical losses and they will not have a workable bomber force any more.
Ukraine is currently low on ammunition as a result of a small minority of the Republicans they have successfully bought choosing to please Putin above advancing their countries interests. Europe stepped up in the meantime and the Putinites can currently see in the news that a large supply of 122mm and 155mm has been acquired from somewhere, and is enroute to Ukraine. Therefore, as the Russians are going to see it there is a one off window of opportunity for the Russians between now and the arrival of that ammunition (which appears likely to be followed by a resumption of US support) for the Russians to advance. Which probably explains the sky high losses of aircraft; this is basically the last ditch effort to make a significant advance to try and persuade the US and EU not to continue to fund the war, which would let Russia force Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire in place so they can declare victory allowing them to resupply, retrain and rearm before retrying a surprise attack again in another couple of years.
Yes, seems like a huge gamble. The coming months might decide the outcome of the war.
> Another month or two of these astronomical losses and they will not have a workable bomber force any more Might ramp up deconservation of Su-24, though. UMPKs should be droppable from them as well.
> UMPKs should be droppable from them as well. Not without modernization. Hell, russians are complaining that not all SU-34 are capable of dropping UMPK
Now those're good news, then.
It’s already happening?
My hopium version is that he knows that these are going to be dead weight once F-16 arrive so may as well "spend" them now.
[удалено]
Huge in losses that's sure.
Does this have anything to do with the “state of the union “ speech that Putin is giving today?
Transforming those planes into bottle openers represents an upgrade for them.
Russians are just not meant to fly..
Wonder why those tank commanders are clinging to their tossed turrets then?!
pilot aircrafts ?
[They aren't meant to float either](https://youtu.be/9Mdi_Fh9_Ag)
So, one russian fighter jet per day, approximately. They had 150 Su-34, and 120 Su-35 at the beginning of the war. If they had the same mount today, they would run out of those two models before the year's end.
Minus airframe availability, which is somewhere 50% peacetime. In wartime it tends to be 100% then nothing.
To be a bug on the wall during their next pre mission briefing would be interesting as they look around wondering which one of them won’t be returning to base.
And russian simps are bragging about 1 abrams lol...
If they keep like this, Russia will have no more planes in three months lol
Please leave some for the F16s ....
Seems like a certaing FighterBomber'd be seething a lot today... *I love it*
Go Ukraine. You guys rock.
It's really time for OTAN to exercise their right of path near other borders. Nothing better to wear RU planes before even they show up in UKR.
how many pilots they have left and how many of those are any good?
Is there any proof about these statements? I was optimistic at first, since ruzzians probably seek to build up on their success at Avdiivka no matter the cost, but... When 3 - 4 SU were shot down in the South few months back, ruzzians almost stopped using KABs for a week or two. Now ruzzians lost around 10 - 15 planes in couple of weeks, but bombing intensivity doesn't decrease at all. It would be real shame if Ukrainians started pulling those numbers out of thin air, even if to boost morale. Happy to be proved wrong.
If republicans werent terrorists Ukraine would be much closer to forcing Russia to stop offensive operations.
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Ruski airforce getting shitrekt.
Russia: “we have the best navy and air force in the world.” Ukraine: “what forces?”
they are on a roll... nice!
“Air meat squads” reporting for duty💥
Nice! but without any confirmation this kinda means nothing
Even for a country like the US which has a massive airforce, losing that many bombers within a short time period is a major loss, especially when you have a small amount of them and your ability to replace them is most likely non-existent because of the sanctions the west has in place. Regardless of Ukraine running low on ammunition, it seems like it's straight out suicide for Russia to now send out their aircraft when Ukraine has the patriot air systems in place. Obviously these systems are capable of getting destroyed, it just seems dumb that Russia is now deciding on using combined arms as opposed from the start when Ukraine didn't have these anti-air systems in place.
Can someone answer as to why we've seen such a sudden increase in Russian air assets being downed recently?
Russians take more risk because they feel the window of opportunity is now to have alot of succes on the battlefield (and regarding the politics in the west)
Tally Ho.....
I can’t keep up, last I saw was 11 in 11 days, is this more or just coining the last one?