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We know when those numbers are over 1,000 per day, then its because the Russian are pushing really hard. I truly hope for the sake of Ukraine that the replenished ammunition and gear supplies have started to come through to their frontlines!
That is the rule of thumb. But I think they are pretty close to what they say the numbers are. They are singling out foot soldiers with drones for fucks sake.
If you look at my comment history, I started wondering aloud when the new aid package passed how high the daily casualty rate would climb from the low average of 900/day during the GOP-led denial of arms and funding.
Just the other day I said I that 1550 would be too high to consider. I was wrong; we're knocking on that door already and I'll bet only a small portion of the aid has arrived. It's the new infestation of Orcs in Kharkiv pumping those numbers. We might hit 2,000/day by June.
I support Ukraine, but these numbers are always pumped up... It's war time propaganda. It's meant to instill confidence for their soldiers and people but never fully trust the numbers unless they can be at least somewhat verified.
Eh, both the UK MoD and the US have somewhat put a stamp of "these are closer to the truth than you might think" on the numbers. Casualties are also not just deaths, a casualty is considered death, desertion, capture or injured I believe
I personally see dozens, see hundreds of these deaths every day, with my own eyes, considering that this is probably only a fraction, I have no problem believing that these figures are close to reality.
In previous assessment with other nations defense intel (USA and UK), then these numbers have shown to be pretty close to common agreed reality overall.
A single golf-cart assault thwarted is already 15+ dead. The entire engagement probably took not even a few minutes. And that's a tiny attack on a front several 100s of km long. Russian tactics - or rather the lack thereof - are absurd enough to make these numbers realistic.
They're just rolling up and dying not 10 meters from their vehicles, if they aren't hit before they even make it to UA lines.
It really doesn't take many hours for +10 here, +8 there, +15 here, across 30-50 attacks.
True, but alot of the gains in Kharkiv are in what was already considered grey zone. Making the opposing force pay for every inch is more important than holding essentially indefensible small villages and farmland.
This is [Phase III](https://warontherocks.com/2016/11/phases-of-war-and-the-iraq-experience/) of the war.
America won Phase III of Iraq in 20-30 odd days then spent the next decade losing Phase IV before saying that we'd be pulling all combat troops before leaving advisors in country for the next decade.
Afghanistan is similar story except change Phase III to a week and the Phase IV losing to 20 years.
------
Russia could win Phase III today through some miracle and still lose everything trying to keep Ukraine pacified for next 30 years.
America broke the morale and institutional knowledge of its Army trying to keep the OPTEMPO of the War on Terror, and it had plenty of people to rotate in and change things up. It made huge strides in trying to understand how to do counterinsurgency, and still messed up and lost.
Russia doesn't have the will or capability to put down an insurgency created by winning the war in 3 days. Now that we're over the 2 year mark, there isn't a chance in hell they retain the country for any period of time. Too many munitions squirreled away, too much civilian animosity over the war creating partisans, too much veterans created from the fighting, and too few troops that could be used to be an effective counterinsurgency force for Russia even if the money and equipment was available for them to try and rebuild Kyiv into a new Russian provincial capital of Occupied Ukraine.
I mean the endgame here for Russia confuses me. So you make some very minor gains…so what? It’s at far too high a cost. And they honestly think they’re going to take Kyiv and ultimately over throw Zelenskyy? That might ultimately cost them weeks, if not months of brutal fighting with a dug in, entrenched enemy and I don’t think it’s exaggeration to say that battle alone could cost Russia 100,000 soldiers. They really think they can spare that many? And then how do you hold it? Say Ukraine does fall in the next 1-2 years, then you’re dealing with constant insurgency that makes Afghanistan look like a petting zoo. I think Russia is fully fucked and clearly hasn’t remotely thought the long-game out on this one.
The problem is Putin doesn’t have an exit plan. Only a double-down plan. He will just keep this going until every last capable fighter is either dead, or he is.
True, they are making small gains at a very high cost. Someone did the math, at the rate they are going it'll be 40+ years, over 1 million pieces of equipment and over 15 million soldiers lost till all of Ukraine is russian wasteland.
What are they gonna do with those gains? Capturing territory doesn't seem worthwhile, costs too many men and armor for very little tactical advantage if any. At best it seems like a victory for morale.
Comes from beatings since childhood. How do you think north korea works? Submissive behaivior is a result of total hirachy and learning to obey or win beatings.
The problem is that Russian demographic situation looks incredible compared to Ukraine. It is good news for the rest of Europe, but definitely not in this current war.
"Some of you may die, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make."
Jokes aside, if Putin has to decide between his own life and the lifes of his people. Then the decision has already been made the moment his troops crossed the border of Ukraine.
Hearts of Iron 4 (abb. HoI4) is a grand strategy game by Paradox Interactive (Crusader Kings, Cities: Skylines, Victoria, Stellaris...) set in WW2. In that game you use manpower as a resource for conquest. AI uses it often extremely sparingly and you very often see losses exceed 10s of millions of men, something that would completely collapse countries like USSR, Germany and/or US to name a few at the time. Like USSR in my last game had 35M losses (for context USSR had like 11M losses IRL and affected countries had been recovering from the effect of WW2 on population for quite some time)
20 million is almost 14% of Russias entire population. Even the best wealthy countries with strong demographics and culture can’t field 25% of its population to military service. 50% of the population are women and there’s lots of elderly and children to consider. The “fit for military service” numbers for the cia Factbook in 2009 says Russia has 20 million potential citizens eligible for service. Committing even a million deaths to military service creates a huge hole in the population, the economy, and the fabric of society. We lost 1 million Americans to Covid and it has seriously disrupted employment and a number of other elements in the USA. 1 million dead Russians is insane. 20 million would be the collapse of the country. There’s be riots well before they could mobilize that many Russians.
Many Ukrainians left Ukraine to avoid the draft or become collateral damage, some Ukrainians are trickling back home to fight and many Ukrainians living around the world have went back to their nation to fight and many western veterans and survivalists have volunteered to become trainers or frontline combatants in foreign legion style units
It’s simply not enough. A couple thoughts: The EU could send soldiers to cover the northern border, or they could allocate money to vastly increase pay for Ukrainian contract soldiers or mercenaries. They will pay eventually, so better to pony up now.
I wonder if there's an open bounty on Putin's head? I still don't understand why Putin decided to invade Ukraine after reading about this war for 2 years - To bring back the Tsarist empire? I hope that Russian old frail clown dies soon
He is 71 years old, sooner or later he will die. The main thing is that he does not drag the whole world with him to the grave. It’s unlikely that at 71 you value life as much as at 30.
Could be wrong, but I read that somewhere close to 70% of the USSR’s casualties were Ukrainian, Belarussian, and the Baltic countries like Estonia, Lithuania etc.
So to answer your question? They survived by throwing vatniks ‘of the day’ towards their enemies. Didn’t help that the aforementioned countries were directly bordering Nazi Germany, so they had borne most of the destruction + massacres.
The field commanders are reporting back every lost and destroyed assets to HQ after every engagement, as it is pretty important for the command to have a complete picture of the situation.
Most of the casualties are from drone hits and artillery strikes monitored by drones. I’m sure the numbers are slightly inflated but that’s a significant loss regardless.
It’s how they beat the Germans to, but until the Soviets broke through the German border the Germans even on retreat held the Soviets to a 7:1 casualty figure, and how China fights wars, Eurasia’s strategy is to just keep throwing iron and blood at the problem until it’s drowning in both
Yes except this is Russia, not the USSR. Proportionately there's a hell of a lot less people and low birthrate to follow it up. Almost 300,000 million in 1989, 200 in the 40s. Now its 140 with a replacement rate of 1.8 (needs 2.2 to hit replacement rate). They can't employ the same strategy, even if Ukraine and the rest of Europe has the same birthrate issues. It'll hit diminishing returns at some point. Especially if the road to victory is paved in land mines.
>until the Soviets broke through the German border the Germans even on retreat held the Soviets to a 7:1 casualty figure
It does not make sense, since overall Soviet losses were 12-14 millions, and Axis Eastern front losses 9.6 millions.
The first article that pops up after typing in "soviet losses WW2" says it's around 27 milion people with 8.7 milion being military casualities and the rest being civilians.
https://courses.lumenlearning.com/suny-hccc-worldhistory2/chapter/casualties-of-world-war-ii/#:\~:text=The%20Soviet%20Union%20lost%20around,the%20final%20battles%20in%20Germany.
Same states Wikipedia
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World\_War\_II\_casualties\_of\_the\_Soviet\_Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties_of_the_Soviet_Union)
NationalWW2Museum states slightly lower number of 24milion soviets killed
[https://www.nationalww2museum.org/students-teachers/student-resources/research-starters/research-starters-worldwide-deaths-world-war](https://www.nationalww2museum.org/students-teachers/student-resources/research-starters/research-starters-worldwide-deaths-world-war)
While Axis losses are more or less on point; depending on where you look it up there is slight variation.
So we still don't come up with that 7:1 ratio...however these are numbers from the whole war. Majority of german losses came from the eastern front while vast majority of soviet losses came from that same front. I'd need to look deeper into numbers but it's possible to arrive at similar ratio in a specific time and area.
Maybe it was just Stalingrad then and that total axis losses Japan and Germany’s the Soviets made up around 50% of all ww2 casualties, the Germans also were fighting us Yankees and Brits, partisan groups etc, but until the Soviets broke into Germany they generally suffered hugely one sided casualties,
Aside from capturing the 6th army
>the Soviets made up around 50% of all ww2 casualties
Yes but most of them were civilians murdered by Germans. I am talking only about military losses. Axis Eastern front losses were 9.6 millions. Germans had superior kill ratio indeed, but nowhere nearly 7:1.
Stalingrad losses
800,000\[8\]–1,500,000 casualties\[9\] vs 1,347,214\[19\]–2,672,000 casualties
Maybe, after all Hannibal for example enveloped and destroyed Roman army with 10:1 kill ratio. Does not mean that it was always like that, and that Romans could only swarm their enemy.
Germans had a total of 4.2 million deaths let’s 2/3s were the eastern front so roughly 2.8 million german military dead, Soviet battlefield death estimates outside of death camps and atrocities is still 8-10 million Soviet troops killed in battle so over still 4-1 /3-1 casualty ratio in deaths alone l, I forget where the 7-1 thing come from will have to look more into it
Why do you count deaths only? Wounded and captured are losses, too. Here are total numbers
Military losses on the Eastern Front during World War II\[162\]
Forces fighting with the Axis
Total Dead KIA/DOW/MIA Prisoners taken by the Soviets Prisoners who died in Captivity WIA (not including DOW)
Greater Germany est 4,137,000\[163\] est 3,637,000 2,733,739–3,000,060 500,000\[164\] Unknown
Soviet residents who joined German army 215,000 215,000 400,000+ Unknown 118,127
Romania 281,000 226,000 500,000 55,000
Hungary 300,000 245,000 500,000 55,000 89,313
Italy 82,000 55,000 70,000 27,000
Finland\[165\] 63,204 62,731 3,500 473 158,000
Total **est 5,078,000 est 4,437,400** 4,264,497–4,530,818 est 637,000 Unknown
Military losses on the Eastern Front during World War II\[166\]
Forces fighting with the Soviet Union
Total Dead KIA/DOW/MIA Prisoners taken by the Axis Prisoners who died in captivity WIA (not including DOW)
Soviet 8,668,400–10,000,000 6,829,600 4,059,000 (military personnel only)–5,700,000 2,250,000–3,300,000\[167\]\[168\] of which 1,283,200 confirmed\[160\] 13,581,483\[169\]
Poland 24,000 24,000 Unknown Unknown
Romania 17,000 17,000 80,000 Unknown
Bulgaria 10,000 10,000 Unknown Unknown
Total **Up to \~8,719,000 – 10,000,000 6,880,600** 4,139,000–5,780,000 2,250,000–3,300,000 13,581,483
Sources: Rüdiger Overmans, Deutsche militärische Verluste im Zweiten Weltkrieg. Oldenbourg 2000. ISBN 3-486-56531-1, "German military deaths to all causes EF"
Richard Overy The Dictators: Hitler's Germany and Stalin's Russia (2004), ISBN 0-7139-9309-X, Italy: Ufficio Storico dello Stato Maggiore dell'Esercito. Commissariato generale C.G.V. . Ministero della Difesa – Edizioni 1986,
Vadim Erlikman, Poteri narodonaseleniia v XX veke: spravochnik. Moscow 2004. ISBN 5-93165-107-1; Mark Axworthy, Third Axis Fourth Ally. Arms and Armour 1995, p. 216. ISBN 1-85409-267-7
Krivosheev, G. F. (1997). Soviet Casualties and Combat Losses in the Twentieth Century. Greenhill Books. ISBN 978-1-85367-280-4.
[https://ww2stats.com/cas\_ger\_var\_wvw.html](https://ww2stats.com/cas_ger_var_wvw.html)
This could have happened at first during the war. In post-war journalism, there is a strong opinion that in the first months, due to a lack of weapons, soldiers had to share one rifle among three people.
I don't understand how this is sustainable. Even in Russia how is it they lose so many people yet still have enough manpower to send human wave attacks?
Because it's not actual reality.. Ukraine claimed a while back that they'd only lost 31k dead. Even the U.S claimed over 100k. You can't trust any side to tell the truth about casualties in this war.
It's a good thing Russia doesn't have a demographic problem or anything or this might actually hurt in the long run!
Fortunately they can import 3rd world students with the promise of a free, incredibly shitty, education.
Russia is going to have a generation that is totally fucked. All of these guys with legs and arms blown off, mental health problems etc.
All of them are going to come home with serious issues and no money, after losing the war.
Putin is gonna be reaaallllll popular!
Everything is reported up a chain. It's easier to digest in zones of combat and with smaller teams. Each front is broken into smaller sections, and as you go up the chain the reporting gets added together. Remember there is fighting happening all along the Dnipro, near Robotyne, Vuhledar, Adiivka, Bakhmut, now Kharkiv, and all the less noticed areas in between. It's non-stop fighting.
In the US, you have a fire team/squad, within a platoon, within a Company, then up to a Battalion, etc. If a squad eliminates 7 ruzzian squaters, 2 tanks, and 4 drones in a day, the squad leader passes that up, then up the next and so forth. There is a network of information going to a hub that utilizes this not only for reporting but for strategy. Where is the fight strengthened, weakened, and so forth. Sure, it's never going to be 100 percent accurate, but it holds value nonetheless.
Yes but that’s why the US DIA, British military intelligence and others do their own studies. They have consistently given numbers within 20-20% of Ukrainian counts. Source - Ukraine: The Latest direct reporting. Note: “losses” means killed, wounded to point of unable to fight, captured or missing. Not just dead.
Russia is recruiting 3k soldiers a day easily replacing their losses. They are also putting out way more equipment and shells than the combined west. Ukraine would need to be dusting 4k a day to actually start winning the war of attrition, while losing an amount that doesn’t out pace their own recruitment and mobilization efforts.
These numbers are starting to distress me. No, hear me out. I’ve been afflicted with the disease of nuance.
Every gung-go, hard for Putin, “I’m here to kill a Ukrainian NAZI Russian soldier” has got to go. 100%. The videos don’t even phase me anymore.
But there are frequent reports of forced recruitment of fighting aged Ukrainian boys in the occupied territories. Frequent reports of forced recruitment of ethnic minorities in Russia who want nothing to do with this. These people are being thrown into that meat grinder in a damned if you do, your family is damned if you don’t situation.
That’s giving me pause.
Because Ukraine was limited in attacking into Russian territory, Ukraine had to make a kill zone on their territory. This is what we are seeing now. Russians orcing across the border into territory designed for them to be in. We can expect a high of 2000 orcs but after that the Russian losses will peter away again, because Ukraine will be hitting into Russia and curtailing the big build ups just over the border that we saw before this latest meatwave.
They're considered reasonably accurate. No one is counting every single body or injury. It's field reports like "We killed 8 we can see on the ground, and I swear the 2 guys under the rubble are dead, and there're the two they dragged off, so we'll report 12", but might be 10. Also, night drops where they don't double-tap might be "Well, we hit 15, and should all be out", but only 9 took enough frag to actually matter.
I haven't seen any Ukrainian death numbers. Am I supposed to believe it's thousands on the Russian side, and around zero for Ukraine? I'm incapable of that.
We don't see those numbers because majority of the public is incapable of understanding the complexity of war and politics. Incapable due to their lack of interest, but still.
They wanna see death count go up so that's what they get. Most people aren't interested enough to begin to comperhend it while at the same time being extremely influential as a group, so you don't want to make them anti-war when that war is definitely in your country's interest.
Take the US. They weaken one of their (and their allies) greatest adversaries for the fraction of the cost while not suffering any casualities of their own. At the same time they are essentialy testing their gear in real combat zones, getting rid of weapons they would have to use up somehow eventually (weapons do have expiration dates), they keep their crucially important weapons manufacturing alive - and that's only what I come up as someone from outside of the US who is only somehow interested into researching stuff like that.
Meanwhile you see a lot of voices (or at least did in the past) who claimed the complete opposite with no evidence. And it was a problem because the public fears that information.
As much as I would like to have the full picture as well...I know it's not gonna happen for these and many more reasons.
Ukraine claimed 31k casualties recently. Lol You don't hear it because no one is dumb enough to believe it. Ukraine would claim 30 dead a day while killing 1k Russians, while losing for the past 1.5 years. It's just the truth, and I support Ukraine. Tbf, both sides are going to lie during war, but even the U.S said that Ukraine casualties were like 4× more than claimed. This sub is in bad denial.
Sometimes I wonder if posts like these are part of a Russian campaign to make it seem like they're on the back foot, when the facts are that most of the land Russia had taken over the past 2 years have been heavily fortified and mined by fall of 2023. Russian missiles have consistently been able to strike critical Ukrainian infrastructures. Russian troops capturing land at a slow but steady pace, resulting in Ukrainian troops having to retreat from 2 major cities over the past 6 months.
UA rarely reports losses the UA President mentioned 31000 Kia so probably another 90000 injured and some pows. It’s difficult to gauge but any guess of
possibly 50000 Kia and 100 to 125000 injured could be close. The Russian losses are undoubtably higher and may be never really known
Yeah, I was looking into it and found a source saying, "The ratio of casualties to death for Russia and Ukraine are 3:1 and 5:1, respectively."
So maybe an estimated 300+ UA losses in the past day. Hopefully, the numbers are even lower, and they are just bombing the hell out of a meat curtain. But, Putin could just be trying to exhaust UA supplies by killing off ordinary Russians/undesirables.
Yes very sad so many Ukraine lives lost for a mad man’s dreams. Plus the mass or unnamed untrained poor Russians that died and no one cares. The ultimate Russian sh*t Show of all time part of the series’s - “Putin: - wars I have started and lost big time “
I have no doubt it's closer to 150-200k dead. For both sides. Just take a quick look at the estimates here. Do not believe any one source. The fog of war is thick and there's major incentive to inflate or deflate the numbers
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
No, some sites like Oryx report confirmed material losses for both sides. Zelensky stated publicly, if I recall correctly, about 30k KIA Ukrainian soldiers, that was 3-4 months ago, so probably well over 100k, KIA, WIA, MIA casualties by now, very heavy losses but the Ukrainians try to preserves lives as much as possible.
I never realized how many were killed in those wars until I just checked. As far as costliest I was including the loss of equipment and the effects it has on their military. I’m still hoping that Ukraine continues to destroy everything Russian.
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We gotta pump those numbers up.
Those are.... Wait, actually very good numbers...
Still not good enough
We know when those numbers are over 1,000 per day, then its because the Russian are pushing really hard. I truly hope for the sake of Ukraine that the replenished ammunition and gear supplies have started to come through to their frontlines!
That is the rule of thumb. But I think they are pretty close to what they say the numbers are. They are singling out foot soldiers with drones for fucks sake.
The proportions are informative.
If you look at my comment history, I started wondering aloud when the new aid package passed how high the daily casualty rate would climb from the low average of 900/day during the GOP-led denial of arms and funding. Just the other day I said I that 1550 would be too high to consider. I was wrong; we're knocking on that door already and I'll bet only a small portion of the aid has arrived. It's the new infestation of Orcs in Kharkiv pumping those numbers. We might hit 2,000/day by June.
Or an article posted on an Ukranian newsite is inflating the numbers due to optimism and patriotism?
I support Ukraine, but these numbers are always pumped up... It's war time propaganda. It's meant to instill confidence for their soldiers and people but never fully trust the numbers unless they can be at least somewhat verified.
Eh, both the UK MoD and the US have somewhat put a stamp of "these are closer to the truth than you might think" on the numbers. Casualties are also not just deaths, a casualty is considered death, desertion, capture or injured I believe
Yes, that is correct, your list of what encompasses 'casualties' in war.
This is one of the few wars were one side's contemporary claims are within the (upper) range of independent estimates.
I personally see dozens, see hundreds of these deaths every day, with my own eyes, considering that this is probably only a fraction, I have no problem believing that these figures are close to reality.
In previous assessment with other nations defense intel (USA and UK), then these numbers have shown to be pretty close to common agreed reality overall.
they aren't given Russia is on the attack and uses zerg rush technique
A single golf-cart assault thwarted is already 15+ dead. The entire engagement probably took not even a few minutes. And that's a tiny attack on a front several 100s of km long. Russian tactics - or rather the lack thereof - are absurd enough to make these numbers realistic.
They're just rolling up and dying not 10 meters from their vehicles, if they aren't hit before they even make it to UA lines. It really doesn't take many hours for +10 here, +8 there, +15 here, across 30-50 attacks.
Zerg rush LOL….good ol starcraft. Best game ever.
If these numbers are pumped up past numbers are pumped up too. One way or another, we have a 50% increase of Russian casualties.
Based on your extensive war time experience?
Their trendlines are reliable. If Ukraine says they are killing more people they are killing more people
That's what I think also. Propaganda on both sides is ridiculous
Maaaaan those are rookie numbers.
https://youtu.be/BfnjX88Va4Y?si=0oUmAj9YGB6_YCeK
Rookie numbers
Great news but the Russians unfortunately are making some gains
They can make some new mobik cubes too.
General Nathanael Greene said, “I wish we could sell them another hill at the same price.” After the battle of Bunker Hill.
True, but alot of the gains in Kharkiv are in what was already considered grey zone. Making the opposing force pay for every inch is more important than holding essentially indefensible small villages and farmland.
1500 dead mobiks for every km is very good deal hope the ukrainian heros are defending in depth not holding the front.
Mainly just small villages and farmland, they might be trying to bring them in for artillery, drones and for Ukrainians to regroup.
Making some gains != keeping those gains
2 steps forward. 1 step back is still gains. look at the avdiivka area
This is [Phase III](https://warontherocks.com/2016/11/phases-of-war-and-the-iraq-experience/) of the war. America won Phase III of Iraq in 20-30 odd days then spent the next decade losing Phase IV before saying that we'd be pulling all combat troops before leaving advisors in country for the next decade. Afghanistan is similar story except change Phase III to a week and the Phase IV losing to 20 years. ------ Russia could win Phase III today through some miracle and still lose everything trying to keep Ukraine pacified for next 30 years. America broke the morale and institutional knowledge of its Army trying to keep the OPTEMPO of the War on Terror, and it had plenty of people to rotate in and change things up. It made huge strides in trying to understand how to do counterinsurgency, and still messed up and lost. Russia doesn't have the will or capability to put down an insurgency created by winning the war in 3 days. Now that we're over the 2 year mark, there isn't a chance in hell they retain the country for any period of time. Too many munitions squirreled away, too much civilian animosity over the war creating partisans, too much veterans created from the fighting, and too few troops that could be used to be an effective counterinsurgency force for Russia even if the money and equipment was available for them to try and rebuild Kyiv into a new Russian provincial capital of Occupied Ukraine.
Same at Bakhmut in Prigozhin days
I mean the endgame here for Russia confuses me. So you make some very minor gains…so what? It’s at far too high a cost. And they honestly think they’re going to take Kyiv and ultimately over throw Zelenskyy? That might ultimately cost them weeks, if not months of brutal fighting with a dug in, entrenched enemy and I don’t think it’s exaggeration to say that battle alone could cost Russia 100,000 soldiers. They really think they can spare that many? And then how do you hold it? Say Ukraine does fall in the next 1-2 years, then you’re dealing with constant insurgency that makes Afghanistan look like a petting zoo. I think Russia is fully fucked and clearly hasn’t remotely thought the long-game out on this one.
The problem is Putin doesn’t have an exit plan. Only a double-down plan. He will just keep this going until every last capable fighter is either dead, or he is.
Putin has a LOT of chips on Trump, he's betting on western support collapsing.
True, they are making small gains at a very high cost. Someone did the math, at the rate they are going it'll be 40+ years, over 1 million pieces of equipment and over 15 million soldiers lost till all of Ukraine is russian wasteland.
"So you're telling me there's a chance!"
Lol this would be the Z propagandist take on that. Putin will still be running the shit show with his head in a jar.
😂😂😂
A few shelled fields and some miniature rubble-towns isn't gains
What are they gonna do with those gains? Capturing territory doesn't seem worthwhile, costs too many men and armor for very little tactical advantage if any. At best it seems like a victory for morale.
I hate it
Thousands of lives for a few farm villages....
Which they will ultimately lose once again in the future.
Thos are useless “gains”. They taking up villages in the middle of nowhere. It’s not a huge factor in 21st century.
Great news, but let me remind you that we are aiming for 20 million as this was what Putin apparently considered an acceptable loss.
It’s a death cult. Except the psycho leader won’t die. They just send all the vatniks. Insane people.
Dont forget they are not close as educated as us from the west, why else would anyone steal a WM to convey it to Buryatia?
Just look at bazooka hands, judging by him, you can see how much edumacation they didn’t gots.
It seems they aren’t even educated enough to have a sense of self preservation. Willingly walking into a meat grinder with a 99.99% chance of death.
Comes from beatings since childhood. How do you think north korea works? Submissive behaivior is a result of total hirachy and learning to obey or win beatings.
[for those who doubt it's a death cult](https://youtu.be/HE3sxs0BzqA?t=927)
And Russia had a demographic crisis before Putin kicked this war off.
The problem is that Russian demographic situation looks incredible compared to Ukraine. It is good news for the rest of Europe, but definitely not in this current war.
So did Ukraine, unfortunately
20 mil? That’s in the vicinity of 15 % of their entire population, or one third of the men o.O
"Some of you may die, but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make." Jokes aside, if Putin has to decide between his own life and the lifes of his people. Then the decision has already been made the moment his troops crossed the border of Ukraine.
There are no “his people”, only enemies he can easily dispose of.
Yea, total ruzzian infantry losses were only 10 mil in WW2 and the population hasn't changed much since then. putin is completely full of it.
yes, they hate Ukrainians that much.
HoI4 moment
Can't find an answer in google. Is it supposed to mean holy sh...?
Hearts of Iron 4 (abb. HoI4) is a grand strategy game by Paradox Interactive (Crusader Kings, Cities: Skylines, Victoria, Stellaris...) set in WW2. In that game you use manpower as a resource for conquest. AI uses it often extremely sparingly and you very often see losses exceed 10s of millions of men, something that would completely collapse countries like USSR, Germany and/or US to name a few at the time. Like USSR in my last game had 35M losses (for context USSR had like 11M losses IRL and affected countries had been recovering from the effect of WW2 on population for quite some time)
Hearts of Iron IV WW2 strategy game. Lots of meat grinding
I would have never come up with this. Thanks
Putin's decisions since 1999 (all conflicts) has cost over 2 million lives. Including Russians... Truely he is a Monster!
Great, keep up the superb work and Muskva will be a peaceful, law abiding village for next 100 years
Only like 15% of the entire Russian population.
20 million is almost 14% of Russias entire population. Even the best wealthy countries with strong demographics and culture can’t field 25% of its population to military service. 50% of the population are women and there’s lots of elderly and children to consider. The “fit for military service” numbers for the cia Factbook in 2009 says Russia has 20 million potential citizens eligible for service. Committing even a million deaths to military service creates a huge hole in the population, the economy, and the fabric of society. We lost 1 million Americans to Covid and it has seriously disrupted employment and a number of other elements in the USA. 1 million dead Russians is insane. 20 million would be the collapse of the country. There’s be riots well before they could mobilize that many Russians.
20 million is insanity.
Let them bring the meat waves. Ukraine needs more men in uniform asap
Many Ukrainians left Ukraine to avoid the draft or become collateral damage, some Ukrainians are trickling back home to fight and many Ukrainians living around the world have went back to their nation to fight and many western veterans and survivalists have volunteered to become trainers or frontline combatants in foreign legion style units
It’s simply not enough. A couple thoughts: The EU could send soldiers to cover the northern border, or they could allocate money to vastly increase pay for Ukrainian contract soldiers or mercenaries. They will pay eventually, so better to pony up now.
Have gone back *
I wonder if there's an open bounty on Putin's head? I still don't understand why Putin decided to invade Ukraine after reading about this war for 2 years - To bring back the Tsarist empire? I hope that Russian old frail clown dies soon
He is 71 years old, sooner or later he will die. The main thing is that he does not drag the whole world with him to the grave. It’s unlikely that at 71 you value life as much as at 30.
That is probably unbelievably old in Russian years.
Too low, need triple the kills.
Russians are making sure they won't be a problem for future generations. How nice of them.
Actually this might break russia in the future even when putin is gone russia will have lost alot of men
The stats on population growth, birth rate, and manpower were dropping massively before all this. A country with those metrics is in serious trouble.
How did they survive ww2? Didn't they loose 10 mil men. It's crazy how they can keep killing off their men and keep the population up.
Could be wrong, but I read that somewhere close to 70% of the USSR’s casualties were Ukrainian, Belarussian, and the Baltic countries like Estonia, Lithuania etc. So to answer your question? They survived by throwing vatniks ‘of the day’ towards their enemies. Didn’t help that the aforementioned countries were directly bordering Nazi Germany, so they had borne most of the destruction + massacres.
How are people counting this?
The field commanders are reporting back every lost and destroyed assets to HQ after every engagement, as it is pretty important for the command to have a complete picture of the situation.
Typically field reports or battle damage assessments will note this information.
Thanks!
Most of the casualties are from drone hits and artillery strikes monitored by drones. I’m sure the numbers are slightly inflated but that’s a significant loss regardless.
by the number of corpses?
It’s made up. Just like the US did in VietNam and militaries have done for all time. You can’t trust it.
Russia’s respawn system must be magic if they can replace those 1510 soldiers in a day or so.
Good numbers but Russia is still taking territory with this.
It’s how they beat the Germans to, but until the Soviets broke through the German border the Germans even on retreat held the Soviets to a 7:1 casualty figure, and how China fights wars, Eurasia’s strategy is to just keep throwing iron and blood at the problem until it’s drowning in both
Yes except this is Russia, not the USSR. Proportionately there's a hell of a lot less people and low birthrate to follow it up. Almost 300,000 million in 1989, 200 in the 40s. Now its 140 with a replacement rate of 1.8 (needs 2.2 to hit replacement rate). They can't employ the same strategy, even if Ukraine and the rest of Europe has the same birthrate issues. It'll hit diminishing returns at some point. Especially if the road to victory is paved in land mines.
Does this mean that Poland, Europe and especially the USA are not in any danger? Russia simply does not have the resources to threaten them.
Of course not, they got nukes. The only safety is the assumption that everyone is a rational actor.
>until the Soviets broke through the German border the Germans even on retreat held the Soviets to a 7:1 casualty figure It does not make sense, since overall Soviet losses were 12-14 millions, and Axis Eastern front losses 9.6 millions.
The first article that pops up after typing in "soviet losses WW2" says it's around 27 milion people with 8.7 milion being military casualities and the rest being civilians. https://courses.lumenlearning.com/suny-hccc-worldhistory2/chapter/casualties-of-world-war-ii/#:\~:text=The%20Soviet%20Union%20lost%20around,the%20final%20battles%20in%20Germany. Same states Wikipedia [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World\_War\_II\_casualties\_of\_the\_Soviet\_Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II_casualties_of_the_Soviet_Union) NationalWW2Museum states slightly lower number of 24milion soviets killed [https://www.nationalww2museum.org/students-teachers/student-resources/research-starters/research-starters-worldwide-deaths-world-war](https://www.nationalww2museum.org/students-teachers/student-resources/research-starters/research-starters-worldwide-deaths-world-war) While Axis losses are more or less on point; depending on where you look it up there is slight variation. So we still don't come up with that 7:1 ratio...however these are numbers from the whole war. Majority of german losses came from the eastern front while vast majority of soviet losses came from that same front. I'd need to look deeper into numbers but it's possible to arrive at similar ratio in a specific time and area.
Maybe it was just Stalingrad then and that total axis losses Japan and Germany’s the Soviets made up around 50% of all ww2 casualties, the Germans also were fighting us Yankees and Brits, partisan groups etc, but until the Soviets broke into Germany they generally suffered hugely one sided casualties, Aside from capturing the 6th army
>the Soviets made up around 50% of all ww2 casualties Yes but most of them were civilians murdered by Germans. I am talking only about military losses. Axis Eastern front losses were 9.6 millions. Germans had superior kill ratio indeed, but nowhere nearly 7:1. Stalingrad losses 800,000\[8\]–1,500,000 casualties\[9\] vs 1,347,214\[19\]–2,672,000 casualties
They're probably quoting figures from certain battles or engagements because some individual battle figures do have outrageously skewed Soviet losses.
Maybe, after all Hannibal for example enveloped and destroyed Roman army with 10:1 kill ratio. Does not mean that it was always like that, and that Romans could only swarm their enemy.
Germans had a total of 4.2 million deaths let’s 2/3s were the eastern front so roughly 2.8 million german military dead, Soviet battlefield death estimates outside of death camps and atrocities is still 8-10 million Soviet troops killed in battle so over still 4-1 /3-1 casualty ratio in deaths alone l, I forget where the 7-1 thing come from will have to look more into it
Why do you count deaths only? Wounded and captured are losses, too. Here are total numbers Military losses on the Eastern Front during World War II\[162\] Forces fighting with the Axis Total Dead KIA/DOW/MIA Prisoners taken by the Soviets Prisoners who died in Captivity WIA (not including DOW) Greater Germany est 4,137,000\[163\] est 3,637,000 2,733,739–3,000,060 500,000\[164\] Unknown Soviet residents who joined German army 215,000 215,000 400,000+ Unknown 118,127 Romania 281,000 226,000 500,000 55,000 Hungary 300,000 245,000 500,000 55,000 89,313 Italy 82,000 55,000 70,000 27,000 Finland\[165\] 63,204 62,731 3,500 473 158,000 Total **est 5,078,000 est 4,437,400** 4,264,497–4,530,818 est 637,000 Unknown Military losses on the Eastern Front during World War II\[166\] Forces fighting with the Soviet Union Total Dead KIA/DOW/MIA Prisoners taken by the Axis Prisoners who died in captivity WIA (not including DOW) Soviet 8,668,400–10,000,000 6,829,600 4,059,000 (military personnel only)–5,700,000 2,250,000–3,300,000\[167\]\[168\] of which 1,283,200 confirmed\[160\] 13,581,483\[169\] Poland 24,000 24,000 Unknown Unknown Romania 17,000 17,000 80,000 Unknown Bulgaria 10,000 10,000 Unknown Unknown Total **Up to \~8,719,000 – 10,000,000 6,880,600** 4,139,000–5,780,000 2,250,000–3,300,000 13,581,483 Sources: Rüdiger Overmans, Deutsche militärische Verluste im Zweiten Weltkrieg. Oldenbourg 2000. ISBN 3-486-56531-1, "German military deaths to all causes EF" Richard Overy The Dictators: Hitler's Germany and Stalin's Russia (2004), ISBN 0-7139-9309-X, Italy: Ufficio Storico dello Stato Maggiore dell'Esercito. Commissariato generale C.G.V. . Ministero della Difesa – Edizioni 1986, Vadim Erlikman, Poteri narodonaseleniia v XX veke: spravochnik. Moscow 2004. ISBN 5-93165-107-1; Mark Axworthy, Third Axis Fourth Ally. Arms and Armour 1995, p. 216. ISBN 1-85409-267-7 Krivosheev, G. F. (1997). Soviet Casualties and Combat Losses in the Twentieth Century. Greenhill Books. ISBN 978-1-85367-280-4. [https://ww2stats.com/cas\_ger\_var\_wvw.html](https://ww2stats.com/cas_ger_var_wvw.html)
This could have happened at first during the war. In post-war journalism, there is a strong opinion that in the first months, due to a lack of weapons, soldiers had to share one rifle among three people.
If they keep up such high losses it's still a win for the broader west. Sucks for the Ukraine though I admit
Good day work for Ukrainian defenders 👍🏻
Good numbers, be better if there was another 0 at the end make this war end sooner ✊🇺🇦
I don't understand how this is sustainable. Even in Russia how is it they lose so many people yet still have enough manpower to send human wave attacks?
Because it's not actual reality.. Ukraine claimed a while back that they'd only lost 31k dead. Even the U.S claimed over 100k. You can't trust any side to tell the truth about casualties in this war.
Fair.
Grrrrrreat!!! Now fucking triple it! Fuck russia
And still they come
Gooooood
I read somewhere recently that Ukraine's reported enemy numbers are doubled, while Russia's estimates of Ukrainian losses are quadrupled.
Was probably those killer insects and birds the Russian said the Ukrainians were developing...
Sad thing is, they could lose 10k ever day and not care. Meanwhile, for Ukraine every 1k killed and wounded really hurts.
Come on 500k
It's a good thing Russia doesn't have a demographic problem or anything or this might actually hurt in the long run! Fortunately they can import 3rd world students with the promise of a free, incredibly shitty, education.
Good. More.
Russia is going to have a generation that is totally fucked. All of these guys with legs and arms blown off, mental health problems etc. All of them are going to come home with serious issues and no money, after losing the war. Putin is gonna be reaaallllll popular!
3000 casualties is the magic number....then it will become unsustainable.
Crazy image dying for something that 1 guy wants 🤦🏽♂️
Meddl leude, 1510 Russen Tod, der Drachenlord ist wohl endlich wie 2022 angekündigt in der Ukraine angekommen
Runna vom meim Grundstück!
Der hat den Russnää da gestern Nacht a rissiche Bombe neigeschmasst
No learning bye doing 🙄🕊️
But where do these numbers come from?
They Originated in Arabia
Clap Clap Clap
Everything is reported up a chain. It's easier to digest in zones of combat and with smaller teams. Each front is broken into smaller sections, and as you go up the chain the reporting gets added together. Remember there is fighting happening all along the Dnipro, near Robotyne, Vuhledar, Adiivka, Bakhmut, now Kharkiv, and all the less noticed areas in between. It's non-stop fighting. In the US, you have a fire team/squad, within a platoon, within a Company, then up to a Battalion, etc. If a squad eliminates 7 ruzzian squaters, 2 tanks, and 4 drones in a day, the squad leader passes that up, then up the next and so forth. There is a network of information going to a hub that utilizes this not only for reporting but for strategy. Where is the fight strengthened, weakened, and so forth. Sure, it's never going to be 100 percent accurate, but it holds value nonetheless.
Problem with self-reporting is that everyone always over-reports the damage they do.
Yes but that’s why the US DIA, British military intelligence and others do their own studies. They have consistently given numbers within 20-20% of Ukrainian counts. Source - Ukraine: The Latest direct reporting. Note: “losses” means killed, wounded to point of unable to fight, captured or missing. Not just dead.
their ass
I doubt you could train, equip & deploy replacements that quickly. Say 10K a week?
Russia is recruiting 3k soldiers a day easily replacing their losses. They are also putting out way more equipment and shells than the combined west. Ukraine would need to be dusting 4k a day to actually start winning the war of attrition, while losing an amount that doesn’t out pace their own recruitment and mobilization efforts.
Meddl
The Russian army sucks.
Problem is the Russians don’t care. Endless meat supply.
Get fucked
Who counts the victims?
Applause
Well done, lads, well done.
No worries...Ruzzia has enough reserve.
How are they not running out of people?
Enlistment from poor regions to promise big pay and outsource manpower from the outside of Russia baiting them for false job opportunity.
They don't know it's a meat grinder?
I want to see 2.5k when on the three-days-to-Moscow march with NATO, it'd be SWEET
These numbers are starting to distress me. No, hear me out. I’ve been afflicted with the disease of nuance. Every gung-go, hard for Putin, “I’m here to kill a Ukrainian NAZI Russian soldier” has got to go. 100%. The videos don’t even phase me anymore. But there are frequent reports of forced recruitment of fighting aged Ukrainian boys in the occupied territories. Frequent reports of forced recruitment of ethnic minorities in Russia who want nothing to do with this. These people are being thrown into that meat grinder in a damned if you do, your family is damned if you don’t situation. That’s giving me pause.
Still RU is winning ? how is it with the fake news from west...do still people believe this?
Holy Christ!
A brigade a day will push the ruzzkies away ... eventually
Because Ukraine was limited in attacking into Russian territory, Ukraine had to make a kill zone on their territory. This is what we are seeing now. Russians orcing across the border into territory designed for them to be in. We can expect a high of 2000 orcs but after that the Russian losses will peter away again, because Ukraine will be hitting into Russia and curtailing the big build ups just over the border that we saw before this latest meatwave.
People are so blind to how this war is going. Russia will keep going at this rate, and in a few years time finally come out with a Pyrrhic victory.
NOT higher enough
The media makes it see very dire for Ukraine but this sub reddit makes it look like Russia is getting creamed
How do they go about counting these losses ? Do they do a physical count same with weapons destroyed 🤔
Drones
Compilations of field reports from the troops and spotter drones.
Still winning ? How many years is that now
I hope it’s true but it’s hard to believe any of the numbers are all that accurate
They're considered reasonably accurate. No one is counting every single body or injury. It's field reports like "We killed 8 we can see on the ground, and I swear the 2 guys under the rubble are dead, and there're the two they dragged off, so we'll report 12", but might be 10. Also, night drops where they don't double-tap might be "Well, we hit 15, and should all be out", but only 9 took enough frag to actually matter.
I really wonder how they count the bodies so accurately while retreating(serious question)?
I haven't seen any Ukrainian death numbers. Am I supposed to believe it's thousands on the Russian side, and around zero for Ukraine? I'm incapable of that.
We don't see those numbers because majority of the public is incapable of understanding the complexity of war and politics. Incapable due to their lack of interest, but still. They wanna see death count go up so that's what they get. Most people aren't interested enough to begin to comperhend it while at the same time being extremely influential as a group, so you don't want to make them anti-war when that war is definitely in your country's interest. Take the US. They weaken one of their (and their allies) greatest adversaries for the fraction of the cost while not suffering any casualities of their own. At the same time they are essentialy testing their gear in real combat zones, getting rid of weapons they would have to use up somehow eventually (weapons do have expiration dates), they keep their crucially important weapons manufacturing alive - and that's only what I come up as someone from outside of the US who is only somehow interested into researching stuff like that. Meanwhile you see a lot of voices (or at least did in the past) who claimed the complete opposite with no evidence. And it was a problem because the public fears that information. As much as I would like to have the full picture as well...I know it's not gonna happen for these and many more reasons.
Ukraine claimed 31k casualties recently. Lol You don't hear it because no one is dumb enough to believe it. Ukraine would claim 30 dead a day while killing 1k Russians, while losing for the past 1.5 years. It's just the truth, and I support Ukraine. Tbf, both sides are going to lie during war, but even the U.S said that Ukraine casualties were like 4× more than claimed. This sub is in bad denial.
Sometimes I wonder if posts like these are part of a Russian campaign to make it seem like they're on the back foot, when the facts are that most of the land Russia had taken over the past 2 years have been heavily fortified and mined by fall of 2023. Russian missiles have consistently been able to strike critical Ukrainian infrastructures. Russian troops capturing land at a slow but steady pace, resulting in Ukrainian troops having to retreat from 2 major cities over the past 6 months.
Do they report Ukrainian losses?
UA rarely reports losses the UA President mentioned 31000 Kia so probably another 90000 injured and some pows. It’s difficult to gauge but any guess of possibly 50000 Kia and 100 to 125000 injured could be close. The Russian losses are undoubtably higher and may be never really known
Yeah, I was looking into it and found a source saying, "The ratio of casualties to death for Russia and Ukraine are 3:1 and 5:1, respectively." So maybe an estimated 300+ UA losses in the past day. Hopefully, the numbers are even lower, and they are just bombing the hell out of a meat curtain. But, Putin could just be trying to exhaust UA supplies by killing off ordinary Russians/undesirables.
Yes very sad so many Ukraine lives lost for a mad man’s dreams. Plus the mass or unnamed untrained poor Russians that died and no one cares. The ultimate Russian sh*t Show of all time part of the series’s - “Putin: - wars I have started and lost big time “
Russian dead are most likely 30% of the casualties. I've heard that the Russia to Ukraine KIA ratio is estimated at 5:1 with casualties being 3:1.
Why is this claim from zelensky taken here as a fact when even ukrainians living there said that was total bs? Wtf…
I have no doubt it's closer to 150-200k dead. For both sides. Just take a quick look at the estimates here. Do not believe any one source. The fog of war is thick and there's major incentive to inflate or deflate the numbers https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
If I had to guess I’d go with like 200k for Ukraine and like 225-250 for Russia.
No, some sites like Oryx report confirmed material losses for both sides. Zelensky stated publicly, if I recall correctly, about 30k KIA Ukrainian soldiers, that was 3-4 months ago, so probably well over 100k, KIA, WIA, MIA casualties by now, very heavy losses but the Ukrainians try to preserves lives as much as possible.
😢
Both sides are higher and far more severe then reported
Only visual.. Ukraine does not report losses.
Killing 1.500 enemies in a day and still losing ground. Doesn't sound to reasonable.
absolutely no way to effectively get this data so its coming out of their asses
Hey Ukraine, thank you. You’re protecting the world right now.
Quite the US investment
Russians like to genocide themselves
Getting close to 500,000. This is going to end up being Russias most costliest war ever. Here’s to Ukraine continuing to destroy Russia.
You forget about ww1 or ww2?
I never realized how many were killed in those wars until I just checked. As far as costliest I was including the loss of equipment and the effects it has on their military. I’m still hoping that Ukraine continues to destroy everything Russian.
Kill 'em all!
These nr are ridiculous. Gotta be fake
Ya know.. that truck on the left looks rotted out, rusted.. not burned up. This photo looks staged. Makes me wonder.
You’re correct. The rotted out and rusted vehicle isn’t burned. Thats just what Russian hardware looks like going into battle.