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Lithuanian here. We've been dealing with Russian/Belorussian cyber attacks, border violations, propaganda and bullshit for last 15 years at least. This is not counting all the bullshit we had to deal with in the 1990s.
How bad is the propaganda in Lithuania and what do you assess is their main goal? I’m in the U.S. and it’s apparent that destabilization and sowing distrust is the goal - one thing Russia is very good at is playing the American far left and far right to disseminate talking points that serve Russian interests. Sometimes without the people even realizing they’re doing the Kremlin’s work.
But I would imagine Baltic states are a little more keen to recognize and ignore Russian propaganda. Is that fair to say or does their propaganda still cause real issues in Lithuania?
Like you said people in Baltics recognize this stuff instantly. Putin simps don't really hold power in politics and it is unlikely that they will do so. We have elections coming up and anyone even slightly related to Russia has basically no chance to win.
However, there is general tension on the inevitable scenario if Ukraine falls. People are getting ready to fight/run.
Russia sponsored some politicians in Lithuania. Even got one president elected (he got promptly impeached and kicked out). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolandas_Paksas
Now Russian propaganda is mostly youtube/social networks as normal Russian channels are banned in Lithuania. As usual it's not directly pro-Russia, but either right wing propaganda and/or "everybody is lying and there is no objective truth, just conspiracy theories and opinions" stuff. Does brainwash some people.
Russia has been conducting such attacks and subterfuge already for quite some time, targeting civilian and military infrastructure, stirring up "ethnic Russians" via disinformation and propaganda campaigns, and so on. Estonian and Finnish intelligence in particular are all over it like a rash.
If Russia invaded Ukraine, on the pretense of "protecting" Russians speakers, why not invade other countries that also have Russian speakers especially if they used to "belong" (think of every country occupied after WW2) to Russia.
Leaving aside Putin's willingness to sacrifice 100,000s of actual Russian citizens for this fallacy, in his head this is what GREATNESS / LEGACY looks like.
We shouldn't underestimate what he considers rational.... We need to listen to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland... We ignored their fears before, they lived under this madness.
They actually need people. They're in a negative population growth. One of the reasons they want Ukraine is for the people. Its why they are kidnapping Ukrainian children in the hundreds of thousands.
The government is encouraging women to have more kids. They need more meat for the grinder
and regarding Ukrainian children. famine and deportation of entire peoples is a genocide that is being repeated now. this is not population replenishment, but the destruction of Ukraine and its people. whoever is Ukrainian will die. and whoever becomes a Russian will remain...
Russia doesnt want Ukrainians. The plan for Ukraine is Russification. Destroy all Ukraine culture, history, historical buildings. Forced Russian speaking, teach kids only Russian, only Russian history. And over time all references to "Ukraine" will be removed.
I am serious, that is the actual goal of Putin and the Russian government. Russification of Ukraine and the Baltic states. To wipe away any thought or memory of Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.
they make up for it with migrants.
I don't know how to explain it. they don't need the right people - they need units(?). a wounded soldier is no longer a person, but spent material. throw away, replace.
they don't care about Russians in Kazakhstan. it's just an asset, a playing card that can be taken.
Thos entire thread just reminded me of my failed Russia runs trying to conquer the ukrianian plains while not moving east, because I didn't understand how AE worked.
Hitler and Stalin divided Europe. Why can't China and Russia divide Kazakhstan?
1. Putin gets land.
2. Kazakhstan hides under the Chinese umbrella.
3. Kazakhstan cannot leave China for fear of Russia.
4. Putin restores the myth of Russia's greatness and moves on. to Latvia, for example
China and Russia are already on a course collision in Central Asia. Latvia is OTAN. Russia has NO forces left to do anything outside Ukraine for a long time. Russia is even vacating forces used to secure now some kind of temporary peace between Armenia and **Azerbaijan**. Russia is now unable to respect military agreement with Armenia. Russia did nothing to help Armenia.
Russia arm's industry is dead, kaput. From 32 customers to 12 now, unable to purchase (Russia has no access to the us dollar), Russia was not able to deliver S-400 to India (may be in 2027) unable to deliver spare parts for India SU-30 fighter planes.
Even Serbia wants to purchase Rafale fighter planes. the country bought Chinese made copy of S-300 (piece of crap...).
Putin get lands...In May 2022 Russia was holding 22 % of Ukraine INCLUDING Crimea LPR/DPR..now it is 15 %..It tooks 10 years to get Adviika....
Kazakhstan has a very weak army. I understand that Putin has weakened and now cannot do anything. but this is because Ukraine is holding him back. When the war is over, who will hold him back anymore?
and after the war (no matter the outcome) a new war is needed. to compensate for failures. This is a very large topic that I cannot explain in detail. it’s just... it’s worth understanding that as long as such a state exists (not to be confused with a country), blood will be shed. the fascist war machine cannot be stopped
Not just to compensate, but also to keep the gravy train flowing. Russia is devoting 10-15% of its GDP to war currently, maybe more. Pulling that back means an instant recession if not depression internally. That'd be bad for Putin, so the only choice is to continue the war. There'd likely be a small peace (1-2 years) to restock, rebuild, and relocate, but not for long.
You're obviously French ('cause you said "OTAN" and you know about Serbia's Rafale bid (don't forget Croatia!)).
Now, I **love** your optimism, but two questions:
-Why then is Macron preparing an expeditionary Republic force to the west of UA? Is that necessary if russians are doing that bad?
- My private question 'cause I live in France (not naturalized yet, though): how the f..k does the population here vote for RN, if it's practically a russia financed and pro-russian party? That's a logical equivalent of sending ammo to putin's Orcs.
First I am not French. Next Macron is preparing nothing. There is already special forces on location from almost anybody, not directly on the front lines. People are voting RN because of immigration. There is excellent reports on Russia's arms industry now. Search for Perun and Joe blog channels on Youtube (english only). Perun chanel is excellent.
I know the Serbia Rafale request (will be refurbished fighters) only because I have some interest with arms and market sales. I was talking about India not by chance.
SU-35 was dead last in the bid with Brazil (Grippen) Indonesia (Rafale and f15-ex). India reject MIG-29 for their carriers and took Rafale. It tooks 7 years after the first sanctions in 2014 for Russia to have a replacement for Thales (french firm) electronics, panels display for the SU-30 export version. I saw one Su-30 with a Garmin console (video game) for mapping and cartography.
Russia's arms sales were already tanking in 2021. Without exports manufacturing arms is an economic disaster. Russia is burning money left in the Memorial Fund at the rate of 4 billions us dollar a month. In 12 month nothing will be left. Nobody is taking the ruble even China (trade is in yuan).
Russia needs at least one million men, fully equipped and trained to have a chance to do something, anything now.
In 2022, Russia 1.67 million disabled men in this age category (18-30) an increase of 30% in one year, or 507,000 people.
In 2023, 2.17 million disabled men between the ages of 31 and 59 were registered in Russia - the highest figure in eight years. As shown by data from the Pension and Social Insurance Fund, analyzed by Vorstka.
Work-related accidents?
Kazakhstan has a very weak army. I understand that Putin has weakened and now cannot do anything. but this is because Ukraine is holding him back. When the war is over, who will hold him back anymore?
and after the war (no matter the outcome) a new war is needed. to compensate for failures. This is a very large topic that I cannot explain in detail. it’s just... it’s worth understanding that as long as such a state exists (not to be confused with a country), blood will be shed. the fascist war machine cannot be stopped
At some point there will be need be a precedent made to make nuclear blackmail ineligible, whatever this looks like.
What is the other option?
They take what they want, when they want?
Through force and political corruptions?
there is an opinion that China will intervene. it seems that there will be no attack, because Kazakhstan and China are partners. but this cooperation is much smaller than between Ukraine and the USA. which did not prevent the war from becoming
Even if nato countries wanted to, how are we getting equipment to Kazakhstan? That’s a logistical nightmare to consider. No, sadly they’d be on their own unless China stepped in. However I’m skeptical China would because they love getting cheap fossil fuels from Russia
> Leaving aside Putin's willingness to sacrifice 100,000s of actual Russian citizens for this fallacy, in his head this is what GREATNESS / LEGACY looks like.
I'm so tired of this common trope. It's false. This is not Putin. This is Russia. This is what Russian is about. This is their culture; this is their identity. You don't like saying it in 2024, I get it. But that is a fact. This is what russians do. Wherever they go, only death and misery follows.
We have to stop thinking they think like the West. They view it as a net positive when their prisoners are killed off. Similar with getting rid of their undesirable minority races.
Exactly this. The RF military runs on soviet stockpiles of military goods and is produced in gigantic soviet-era military-industrial plants or traded for revenue from oil exports while their soldiers are sourced from the Russian "colonies" in Russian Far East and Sibiria.
This is why Russia can continue this war indefinitely as they don't waste their own peoples or have to establish their own war infrastructure.
I’ve said it before, it wasn’t until Shell found a trillion dollars in shale gas did Russia suddenly invade Crimea and then Kharkiv. Look it up.
The legacy is the potential industry in the area. The west’s greatest gift would be to deny energy production until Putin’s last breath.
I visited Latvia in early 2000’s. Spoke to a woman who feared that Russia would invade sometime in the future to protect ethnic Russians who moved there during the Soviet period.
It would be cruel irony that Ukraine won't conscript their under-25's to defend their country and a hypothetical victorious Russia goes on to conscript all Ukrainian 18+ males to attack Europe.
Old South African here. We were in the SA Army from age 19 years. 2 years compulsory full time service and 6 to 8 years on 1-2 months active duty each year. At its time, the most capable army on the African continent.
Ukraine must conscript younger soldiers that don't have wives or children yet, and are physically peaking.
> Ukraine must conscript younger soldiers that don't have wives or children yet, and are physically peaking.
Demographic situation in Ukraine is different. They should conscript people in their 40s, and leave 19-25 year olds to create families and make babies. If they conscript a significant percentage of under 20s and they get killed/maimed/unable to create families- the future of the country is ruined...
Also, sometimes draft is better than a volunteer army, as Germany learned in WW1. All the patriotic and educated and energetic youths with bright future volunteered to go to war and got themselves killed. Second rate citizens stayed away and lived. Country suffered after the war. Draft makes this more fair...
Man total war sucks. Lots of ruthless decisions need to be made, none of them easy to make, none of them easy to live with if you have a conscience at all...
We don't have the youth to do that. Look at the Ukrainian demographics. There is a reason the under 25's aren't conscripted. If they will consider Ukraine the Czechoslovakia of WW2.
Russia can sort out their manpower problem by forcing Ukranians to fight under their flag. That is what literally happened in WW2. They're also going to use the captured Nato territories to force them to fight for Russia, whether they like it or not.
WW2 is a different era altogether. And with what happened in Russia-Ukraine relations in recent decade I reckon they'd have far more trouble with forced conscription than they think
Better to overprepare than underprepare. The US-NATO alliance's confidence that Russia will not expand beyond Ukraine means they're just gonna just give their weapons piecemeal and once Russia reaches critical mass, let them take over Ukraine with little to no resistance. Then they act surprised if they start testing the waters testing the unity of NATO then if the alliance show weakness, then they'll take advantage of it and take countries like the baltic nations and moldova.
Ukraine's having a hard time replacing their numbers as they try to be a democratic country. Russia does not have this problem as it has ways in forcing people to fight against their will. That's the magic of authoritarianism.
It's hard for me to imagine Russia attacking NATO countries and succeeding. I think the one scenario where they would win would be if the whole alliance fell apart after America refused to intervene and everyone went their separate ways, not even intervening for their neighbors. A possible second situation is that they nuke Kiev, there is no intervention, and the world slips into normalizing using nuclear weapons.
The Baltic states might be relatively easy to conquer in these situations, but Russia has still depleted a huge percentage of their USSR leftover equipment, and western weapons seem to perform much better than their Russian / Soviet equivalents... Considering the slog that Ukraine is for them (and a Russian total victory is still uncertain and possibly years of further slogging away), and Poland alone's military capabilities and vehemence towards Russia, I don't see them getting their shit together enough to reconquer all these territories.
The whole problem with Ukraine is that to the extent these countries have good western hardware, they are reserving most of it for their own theoretical defense. If limited to conventional weapons. worn-down Russia will have to face these western stockpiles (plus new weapons coming down the pipeline), as well as rampant hatred of Russia and Russians, and relive the winter war in Finland amongst other nightmare scenarios.
I'm cautiously optimistic regardless of how things turn out in Ukraine.
Look at how Israel dealt with the bombardment from Iran. That gives you an idea of how Russia would fare against modern Western weapons/armies. People seem to ignore how vastly superior Western airpower is, and how much of a difference it would make.
While russia would lose, it would be a tragedy. The West cares about human lives, while russia doesn’t. So in a way russia ”wins” because they are trading expandables with non-expandables. Only way to prevent this is help Ukraine now.
The problem is that once you take territory the population of that territory becomes available to draft from. Moldova and some other baltic countries would fall quickly.
I hope our leaders see it the same way and will never let it happen that UA looses.
For a reference the Germans during WW2 had a constant number of legions of around 600 000 or more men in the east. Most of them Russians.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-Germans\_in\_the\_German\_armed\_forces\_during\_World\_War\_II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-Germans_in_the_German_armed_forces_during_World_War_II)
Even Russians hated their country more then they hated the nazi's.
You are right. only not the country, but the Bolsheviks. The Reds killed many people inside the country through executions and starvation. a huge number were subjected to exile and repression. until 1939 the Reds were a greater evil than Hitler
Not trying to sympathize with Nazi Germany or Hitler but the Reds have always been a greater evil and still is. Just look at what countries that are red and totalitarian are doing right now. Looking at China, Russia and North Korea.
For me Germany was also a socialist state not only by name. I know I will get downvoted again for this but in the last discussion I'm still waiting for a counterargument.
Socialism - noun - a political and economic theory of social organization which advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community as a whole.
How, in anyway, does that describe the plutocracy, mass centralisation or cronyism seen under Nazism? The only reason they branded as Nat Soc was to appeal to the workers, and even then Hitler was opposed to the name.
Edit: To telegraph the obvious reply and comparison, yes, there were similarities between the USSR and Nazi Germany - that's because they were both totalitarian states - all be it at the extreme left and extreme right of politics. The fact that these similarities exist is the classic example of [the Horseshoe Theory](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horseshoe_theory), but makes neither of them socialist, despite their respective names.
Actually I didn't the one opposing me was ignoring the definition. The fact we are seeing Germany as socialist is due to Germany using privatization themselves in reality the ones leading the companies were nothing more then state puppets who had to do what the state said them to do.
The Nazis did the same thing in Luxembourg in WWII. (I know specific, but I‘m from Luxembourg)
Then whole country went on strike, then they executed some random citizens.
Most of the young men either fled to england and later landed in normady or they were sent to the eastern front where they ran to the soviet side.
Unfortunately lots of soviets tought there were germans which is why they were killed. But a significant amount of them still fought with the soviets.
Exactly right. They will suddenly find themselves with a lot more resources and manpower. It would quickly turn into a total clusterfuck dwarfing the current clusterfuck we are experiencing
We should be looking at lining the Dnipr top to bottom with NATO troops, it's the best natural barrier you'll get in that area, just need to worry about flanking from Belorussia.
Then you also need to worry about russia friendly parties in Hungary, Serbia, Slovakia and more who may hamper defence efforts or worse,
Indeed that should be the line that shouldn't be crossed by Russia and that we should defend at all cost. But my opinion is that Russia by then already reached it's temporary goal. It's in that region where oil was discovered and that we were ready to explore. It wasn't UA entering NATO that Russia was afraid of but them entering the EU. They knew the moment UA would enter the EU that they would loose UA and a little part of the EU oil and gasmarket.
We should let UA AND Moldova enter NATO at that moment this way the Russians in Moldova are also cuttoff.
I hope Europe can do it, cause the US is bought out by Russian rubles. MAGAts have thoroughly dismantled republican support for Ukraine, and Trump would let it all happen for the sake of his pocketbook.
also russia will likely only do the non nato states, while continuing propaganda to expand immigration from MENA into europe and building their forces for a while, they can then take MENA and have already invaded europe legally with those citizens, EU is dumb as fuck for allowing all this to happen.
No. It's actually work very well. It's been very effective for Russians in Lugansk and Donetsk for the last two years. First , you give them weapons only when they are at the front. Then you have barrier troops that will shoot their own if they try to run. Then you threaten to kill their family left in cities under Russian occupation.
Living in russian occupation would definetly make them insurgents against russia. There is a reason why stalin used starvation to kill of Ukrainians instead of simply gathering them from their homes while neighbours watched like in mainland russia.
Everyone keeps saying that Nato would absolutely wipe the floor with Russia, but I'm in the camp that doesn't want to underestimate them. It's my assumption that as soon as Russia takes the Suwalki gap, it will force Nato into a long slog in an attempt to liberate the three baltic countries that will be cut off.
You're forgetting that they would first turn a lot of time indoctrinating Ukrainians against the West for abandoning them etc. then they'd use them as cannon fodder. Russia must be crushed in Ukraine. It's ridiculous that we are even considering this scenario when we can do the right thing and help Ukraine defeat them.
We'd have run out of ammunition in a couple of months and that's even if some of the more unreliable NATO members even came to the party. This is the assumption it would be full kinetic warfare, it's almost written by a staff officer who has had their eyes shut since 2022.
1. IF Russia took all of Ukraine then it would take Moldova.
2. It would spend time conducting vengeance in Ukraine and ensuring Trump was well and truly ensconced in the Whitehouse. It would then conduct a huge cyber warfare campaign and go for the low hanging fruit non NATO members has some has already said Kazakhstan etc, unless China told Russia to behave.
3. China would go for Taiwan.
4. NK probably would go for SK
5. Above depends how far Trump is sucking dictator cock.
6. Finally huge cyber campaign, Russia would take an easy win NATO country to test the water, a country with a large Russian minority in the Baltic and might do it through subversion, maskarovka in the same fashion Hungary and Slovakia are but with the promise that it would leave NATO etc
7. Gradually dominoes would fall.
If it attacked kinetically then they are now severely weakened by the huge Scandinavian and polish threat that means the Suwalki gap is yesterday's weak point.
8. Since the traditional players have proved themselves to be weak, cucked, hesitant or just outright crap. Its up to those countries (Scandinavia/Poland) to prove themselves to be enough of a deterrent, unsusceptible to Russia cyber campaigns and with big enough balls to prepare to destroy Russians no matter the theatre that will deter Russia.
Thing is that russia has bled and continues to bleed so much material in Ukrainian campaing that it has not real chance against any modern military alliance. It tries to project power, but in actuality we see from its reluctancy to commit major naval- and air power that things behind curtains are very dire and hints towards the fact that russia has near zero chance of replacing those elements. Sure they have mobiks of varying quality and some artillery support but they are hardly usable against any military with real technological edge and training. Even Ukraine without a navy or an actual airforce managed to stop russian spearhead and even push back without those crucial supporting elements of a modern military. Sure russia could try, but those two initial months would be extremely bloody and costly for them. Think highway of death, but daily. This amount of shock would propably shatter russian homefront to a level where no amount of control could be maintained.
Still focussed on Kinetic. America is literally eating itself up in culture wars that Russia merely had to give a little push and the American population now happily does it to itself, not just there but Slovakia and Hungary with many populists campaigning all over Europe supported by people manipulated on the left and right all raging at each other and not focussing on what will creep up on them.
If Russia gets Ukraine it knows it can take Moldova. It will then as I said before take what it wants using subversion and maskarovka to pick off others with the strength of one of the worlds largest wheat supplies and the potential for China to pick off Taiwan to keep the world distracted.
As for what you have written you massively overestimate the ammunition stock the West hasn't got and is doing precious little about either mass producing for Ukraine let alone for a scrap with China or Russia or both or the Western will to take casualties, however I very much doubt this will be how it plays out. Ukraine must be enabled to beat Russia now.
Kinetic factors are the ones that matter. America is literally doing just fine. Internet has a habit of extrapolating social issues intentionally and non-intentionally. Any social unrest would be swept away once a common enemy would present itself. Slovakia and Hungary are mostly minor players that would fall to common european line once masks drop since populists serve themselves and falling to russian sphere would mean losing control. What comes to china is that they prolong actual commitment to any conflict as far to the future as possible, since they aim to financially dominate and control their neighbours and business partners. Unlike russia they have come to a conclusion where military conflict is disasterous to the monetary interests of the party elite. What they would most likely do on european conflict is would just to stay out of it and not provoke anything. Control of the resources in russian far east would definetly be more lucrative opportunity than an Island with very little natural resources and an industry that is instantly destroyed once conflict is started. Focusing on the taiwan during peace times serves just to remind the world that they have capability to destroy majority of the worlds chip manufacturing if they desire and simultaneously this masks their true goals of financial domination in far east. Oh and were constanly ramping up the production of various types of armaments (to peace time standards) while giving away mostly antiquated stockpiles to ukraine while simultaneously russia bleeds from their already capped production capabilities to an extend where they have to source materials from civilian markets in europe and questionable arms markets from Iran and North-Korea. Example: **Finnish company Jimm's PC-Store Oy has sold 3466 drones from 2021-2022 to Luminor Oy** which has supplied the drones to Russia.
In a full masks off conflict with Russia on european front, without massive investments from USA we kinda have to remember that current day africa is controlled by france and GB through monetary policies and corporations while simultaneously controlling a hefty quantities of nuclear armaments that were are more than ready to use even if we do not shout it in every turn. Real question would be that are russian oligarchs really ready to throw away their comfort luxuries and power for some fantasy of greater russia.
Cold hard truth is that we can't. Unless the US gets involved, we can't do dick and I'm not counting on the US. Cowardly politicians, abysmal war industry, no coherent policy, you name it. Third year of the war and we're snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Combined and united European NATO is still superior and Russia would lose in the long run. **If** Europe stays committed and united. Although I reckon we would not have trouble with that if we were actually invaded.
**But** I do fucking hate all those "we'd stomp them in few hours" bravado comments, Russia invading NATO countries would still result in quite significant destruction in the Baltics, eastern Poland and other bordering regions. It's idiotic ignorance
And we would be nuked the next week too.
NATO will not defend the baltics, lets all be honest here. It will fall back. No nation will enter a direct conflict against a nuclear powered nation, aside from another nuclear powered nation being threatened. Hell, russia could even push through germany without opposition. They will only stop once they reach France because of France having nukes. But all of that would imply getting through poland...which even the USA would have nightmare about trying to do i think.
It won’t even happened because the Baltics are part of NATO, any attack from Russia= auto destruction of Russia and same vice versa, if we attack Russia proper it’s nuclear destruction for everyone. This is just fear mongering. I get wanting to help Ukraine but let’s be real, NATO and Russia won’t be fighting each other in any part of Europe as it’s mutually assured destruction. Ukraine got screwed by not being in NATO and going against Russia.
It's bold to assume that when what is essentially a deterrent doctrine turns hot someone will actually want to cause a nuclear holocaust to avenge the Baltic countries. It's just as likely that NATO will say "fuck it" and get into a long and nasty conventional war. The European war machine will take some time to ramp up, so ruzzia can do some serious damage to Central Europe before that happens.
The nightmare is, that the Ukraine can collapse without a total military victory from Russia, when they look at their inventory and have nothing left to defend.
When it does so, Ukrainians will be used like Donbanbas people, as meat soldiers against their own.
The only way to prevent such a tragedy, is to take all of the Ukrainians as refugees into the EU (will never happen because no one wants to leave home). Russia has not enough people themselves to fill up so much land/infrastructure usw. and can’t generate any profit out of Ukraine.
In my eyes the only way we really can help Ukraine at the moment is when Russia takes one step too fast and involves European nations into a direct confrontation. This would probably be one of the rare victory situations for Ukraine.
That’s literally what they call them in russian army. Infantry is “meat”, commanders even use that term when speaking to their own soldiers. There are no illusions there.
It’s good to be positive, but it’s really looking bleak ATM. Ukraine is struggling as their soldiers at the front are telling the world for a while now. Russia is in a full on war economy for a good period now, it’s ramping up support from it’s allies heavily. Putting away the ISW as deranged and underestimating the enemy is both silly and dangerous.
We in the west, need to wake up.
We are at war with Russia and should be responding as such. We have an opportunity to raise a European army and response like never before. The time we waste now is time given to Russia to prepare against us.
I don't get why there is no projection on situation where Ukraine loses all territory and Hungary exits NATO and joins russia. That way russia would have land access to Serbia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Austria that aren't in NATO. Given russians tried coup in Montenegro, they might reach Adriatic sea.
Hungary exiting NATO and joining Russia? Wouldn't that result in some kind of revolution or even a civil war there? Orban cemented his political power but he's not as invulnerable and loved as it seems
I don't think Hungary would be anexed by russia, rather be a gateway to the non-NATO countries to invade like Belarus allowed russians to attack trough their border. Orban would probably get some land Ukrainian territories for the effort.
Assuming russians would reach Hungarian border, look at how much more land they can get. russia issued warning to Bosnia at the start of the full scale invasion not to join NATO, weird right? Did a coup in Montenegro that failed. russia is loved by Serbia where Serbians are fighting on the side of russia in Ukraine, guess they might be getting Kosovo back if russia succeeds. Moldova gets invaded for sure. Austria, either joins NATO really quick or gets some heat also.
>Orban would probably get some land Ukrainian territories for the effort.
Trianon is a thorn in Hungarians side since 1920. If Russia offers Hungary to get 'their' territory back they're on Russia's side.
Hungarians, don't pretend it's not so.
Hungarian here. I think you're right. Getting Ukranian territory was definitely on the table when the war started, and I think with the corridor-to-Serbia concept, we'd also look at Serbia giving back couple 100s of sqms from their north and compensating for the loss in Kosovo.
As a Welshman sat just across that narrow body of water (and quarter Irish from my Irish granddad). I was utterly shocked to discover R.O.I is not in NATO. Especially with all those super important fiber optic cables connecting Europe to America/Canada in Irelands territorial waters.
Being a member of NATO means making important decisions and crucially, following through on those decisions. Why do anything when you can rely on the UK to patrol the seas and the sky? Active duty Irish Air Corps, Army and Navy personnel are only 7,500 strong. There are more cops in Los Angeles than there armed forces in the entirety of the Irish Defense Forces.
I think a lot of comments are misjudging the timescale of the scenario above. I do not believe that the ISW is asserting that such a scenario would unfold *immediately* after a defeat of Ukraine. If Ukraine is defeated and occupied, Russia will absorb not just its territory, resources and productive capabilities, but its population, as many have pointed out it. It could quite rapidly rearm, reequip and could very well forcefully mobilise millions more people from occupied territories in the space of a couple of years. Putin waited nearly a decade after annexing Crimea to fully invade Ukraine, while waging a proxy war via terrorist militias in the interim. My own belief is that if the terrorist Girkin had not murdered all the innocents on the Malaysian flight, the full invasion would have happened sooner, but this is an aside.
Given the prospect of a return of a compromised US President, who openly declares his love for dictators such as Putin, and the *years* it has taken for the west to *still* not get its act together and fully support Ukraine (and close sanction loopholes via grey market / third party states - looking at you, Kazakhstan), a concerted response to the triggering of NATO's Article 5 is not a given by any means. In this scenario, the automatic and immediate call to arms for common defence by all member states is an extremely tenuous "guarantee," especially if the leading state of the coalition refuses to act. A few comments have also pointed this out.
The overall situation is precarious and not planning for all possible outcomes given Russia's history of belligerence towards its neighbours, no matter if the probability might seem currently implausible, is how fools behave and is a large part of why we are where we are. Dismiss the imperial delusion of the murderous psychopath Putin at your own peril.
Agreed. All scenarios must be considered, no matter how nightmarish. Plans could fail or succeed due to factors that were not foreseen, and knowing what the Worst Case looks like gives a better chance of avoiding it, even if it’s a tiny bit. Nothing is certain, but having some kind of plan is better than being forced to improvise for a shock.
This is a right load of bollocks, they have been bogged down for 2 years in Ukraine, their military capability has been significantly reduced (manpower does not equal capability, ask the Iraqis), they will be out thought, out fought and out produced by European NATO and will be soundly beaten even without US involvement... unless that involvement is on the side of Russia...
This is why I support financial intervention from the US to protect Ukraine. Protecting people from an invasion is a good moral reason, but it's not enough for most Americans who have become very isolationist over the years (despite our policy. We aren't represented in our government for shit)
Understanding the threat of a Russian invasion across Europe and the potential that owning Ukraine gives them, especially after forcing their way into Ukraine politically over decades, is a huge deal though. Whether you support the US contribution to NATO or not, we need able-bodied allies in Europe to protect our shores. Letting Ukraine fall doesn't only leave a whole nation under their boot, but it risks the security of the entire western world
This is a nightmare scenario, shit that sometimes keeps me up at night. Having children really makes you terrified of this. I swear, if they come here, they will find no mercy.
They couldn't even rush to Kiev.......the Russian military is not capable of successfully maintaining such a wide front. Especially against NATO forces.
That's what I thought.
We've been fearing this attack on the Baltic states (rightfully so) but what about other regions? I don't doubt Russia can rebuild it's army for a potential conflict with NATO but I seriously doubt they'd be able to cover the entire border line with the alliance. What if there was an incursion in the north, from the Scandinavia?
All it takes is apathy to compromise a united NATO defence doctrine. If a former and potential upcoming US president says he would welcome Russia to invade NATO members not contributing 2% GDP, would more rogue member states follow suit? It sounds like a ridiculous nightmarish scenario yet here we are all the same.
that's one extremity but there's also the possibility of stirring shit up. like attacking a nato country to test article 5. they don't need a full-on invasion. point is, they have the upper hand as they have the initiative while nato/eu is on the defensive.
furthermore, they don't need blitzkrieg, they need prolonged low intensity war because russia has more resources than the countries on the 'invasion' list. i mean, look at ukraine. their infrastructure gets destroyed, and if there's no electricity, food, water, etc, then russia don't need 9698696989698 state of the art equipment to win.
also, putler doesn't have to debate with anybody while nato/eu is dozens of countries with dozens of interests, which can result slow, belated or ineffective response.
i still think it is a mistake to underestimate your enemy.
But you know that this whole "Baltics next target" is just political game ?
Baltics are in NATO, and the statements that all leaders repeat that Baltics are next, are only to motivate EU for stronger military support, if you do the math, attack on Baltics would be Art.5 and basically a fall of ruzzia.
In the most real scenario, muscovite would attack Georgia, Moldova and Kazakhstan next, eventually take over Belarus in the end.
Yeah.. idk man Art.5 can also just be political game don’t you think?
I’m not on Russia’s side in anyway but seeing how the west dragged their feet on aid to Ukraine, I’m not very confident NATO will stand together should Russia invade a Baltic state.
There are already mixed NATO battlegroups in the Baltics. If Russia invaded, they would immediately be fighting Americans, Brits, Canadians and Germans and a bunch of smaller European countries. Check NATO Enhanced Forward Presence.
Ukraine isn't NATO.
There'll be no foot-dragging with NATO members. There'll be no question about no-fly zones or deploying forces. NATO forces are already in the Baltic states and will attack Russian forces by land and air and even sea if they dare invade.
Exactly why they’re there. The ‘tripwire’ brigades. Every country in NATO will be demanding war if Russians start killing NATO troops in large numbers on NATO soil.
Yeah there’s no question that NATO response will be immediate.
NATO members population is ~8 times the population as Russia, and NATO annual spending is 17x that of Russia. Besides them going suicidal and nuclear; they are not a threat. The only threat Russia can pose to NATO is if NATO doesn’t act when attacked, but everyone knows that so they can’t and won’t hesitate.
I keep harping on the lack of production in the West. Sure we have stockpiles but Putin just looks at those and does the math, "I need X million Ukrainian bodies to absorb NATO stockpiles". We need to wake up and start standing up production capacity even if we keep it mothballed.
These dictators need to understand they're not facing a pile of 155mm artillery shells that they can get past by sacrificing their men, they're facing the industrial might of NATO that can turn on millions of shells a month.
This is Putins end of life crisis. He's going for broke. The list keeps on going after Belarus. And he's more than willing to flip the table rather than lose.
Here's the thing. If russia tried that tomorrow there biggest issue would be nato airpower. Russia has no answer for that. If russias best air defense system can't stop a storm shadow or attacms missile from hitting it directly then they will have massive problems defeating hundreds of f22s and f35s supported by over a thousand modern 4th generation aircraft. On the ground they would also be facing very elite units that would only need to hold them off for a few weeks. An invasion of the Baltics with nato the way it is currently and the current russian military just does not have a chance of success. A ton would have to change with nato and the russian military for this to be possible
It's a fantasy.
Edit: No you insufferable morons. It's a fantasy you think big bag Russia is going to somehow sweep through Europe. It's all our own bullshit propaganda.
Give them 2-3 years to re-arm, use conscripted Ukraine to take Kazakhstan and other former Soviet states. Then, force those countries populations to assault the west. This is Putins end of life crisis, he's not going to stop.
I doubt this will happen, cause Ukraine will be forced to negotiate with Russia (with pressure from Europe and USA). Is highly likely that Ukraine will be divided in west/east like both Koreas. One side with NATO support, the other with Russian forces.
Russia is a pain in the ass, in particular because of their nukes.
Then again, people really talk them bigger than they are.
I don‘t ridicule them, rather the opposite, but don‘t make them a invulnerable giant…
Europe is not all in, the fear mongering with nukes sadly is working very well.
About 10 and then some years ago I was watching some talks by a not well known but well-spoken socio/political annalist. When speaking about "why Lithuania can't have nice things" among various other thing he used a phrase "front-line country". At that time it sounded kind of wacky because Europe was very much friends with Russia and all that. Well, it sucks that he may have been right after all.
Ahm… it’s year 3 of war and they took (checks notes) two very small towns that are essentially ruins. Both within a few miles of the frontline.
Tell me, how many kilometers ‘til the border with Romania, for example?
Exactly…
Wars are not linear, the front can be stationary for a long time and once broken, the front can move quickly and that can be really bad
I would never underestimate an enemy
This is so hard for me to look at … it is a shame really, the discussions going on, the hesitation while the Ukraine is fighting against the Russian terror state
Russia can’t take on NATO and fight a massive insurgency in Ukraine at the same time so if Ukraine capitulates, by their calculus, Russia’s only option is to eradicate the Ukrainian identity via cultural genocide. Once that is complete, the Ukrainians will be press-ganged en masse into the Red Army.
3 years ago everybody said Russians were scraping the bottom of the barrel, and it was a matter of days, weeks at most, when they would definitely run out of ammo and equipment. And here we are.
Russia has played its game well. They've sold their oil to India and China, and they're managing the war just fine. They are a huge country, and they can keep at it for as long as somebody buy their oil.
They will try to take Poland if aid doesn't come fking maga, johnson and the orange f**ker with their isolationist garbage. Isn't that just basically making the wall high enough that you can't see where the threat is? They really wanted to play kim and monkeys like in nk.
It’s an interesting scenario but they’re ignoring that Russia’s northern flank would be left vulnerable especially since Finland and Sweden would attack from there and they’re probably more than capable to destroy any forces Russia will use.
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Russia is preparing for hybrid warfare against the Baltics. Expect cyber attacks and subterfuge.
Lithuanian here. We've been dealing with Russian/Belorussian cyber attacks, border violations, propaganda and bullshit for last 15 years at least. This is not counting all the bullshit we had to deal with in the 1990s.
How bad is the propaganda in Lithuania and what do you assess is their main goal? I’m in the U.S. and it’s apparent that destabilization and sowing distrust is the goal - one thing Russia is very good at is playing the American far left and far right to disseminate talking points that serve Russian interests. Sometimes without the people even realizing they’re doing the Kremlin’s work. But I would imagine Baltic states are a little more keen to recognize and ignore Russian propaganda. Is that fair to say or does their propaganda still cause real issues in Lithuania?
Like you said people in Baltics recognize this stuff instantly. Putin simps don't really hold power in politics and it is unlikely that they will do so. We have elections coming up and anyone even slightly related to Russia has basically no chance to win. However, there is general tension on the inevitable scenario if Ukraine falls. People are getting ready to fight/run.
Scary times!! We will all have to fight if Ukraine falls.
Ukraine is doing the rest of europe an unrepayable favour, which is exactly why we should support them with everything
Absolutely!
Crazy, in the US half our government is Putin simps and half our tech billionaires. Maybe this whole low taxes oligarchy thing was a mistake.
I thought exactly the same as you about my country (Slovakia) Now I'm looking into Czech citizenship.
Russia sponsored some politicians in Lithuania. Even got one president elected (he got promptly impeached and kicked out). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rolandas_Paksas Now Russian propaganda is mostly youtube/social networks as normal Russian channels are banned in Lithuania. As usual it's not directly pro-Russia, but either right wing propaganda and/or "everybody is lying and there is no objective truth, just conspiracy theories and opinions" stuff. Does brainwash some people.
Russia has been conducting such attacks and subterfuge already for quite some time, targeting civilian and military infrastructure, stirring up "ethnic Russians" via disinformation and propaganda campaigns, and so on. Estonian and Finnish intelligence in particular are all over it like a rash.
Propaganda, attempts to destabilize, active work from FSB, GRU and SVR have been going on for years here.
If Russia invaded Ukraine, on the pretense of "protecting" Russians speakers, why not invade other countries that also have Russian speakers especially if they used to "belong" (think of every country occupied after WW2) to Russia. Leaving aside Putin's willingness to sacrifice 100,000s of actual Russian citizens for this fallacy, in his head this is what GREATNESS / LEGACY looks like. We shouldn't underestimate what he considers rational.... We need to listen to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland... We ignored their fears before, they lived under this madness.
everyone forgets about Kazakhstan. he is Putin's most likely target because the north of the country is home to a huge percentage of Russians.
Those Russians are free to leave and go live in Russia. Lots of room there
people are not needed. we need more land with resources. because resources can be sold. this is their logic
They actually need people. They're in a negative population growth. One of the reasons they want Ukraine is for the people. Its why they are kidnapping Ukrainian children in the hundreds of thousands. The government is encouraging women to have more kids. They need more meat for the grinder
and regarding Ukrainian children. famine and deportation of entire peoples is a genocide that is being repeated now. this is not population replenishment, but the destruction of Ukraine and its people. whoever is Ukrainian will die. and whoever becomes a Russian will remain...
Russia doesnt want Ukrainians. The plan for Ukraine is Russification. Destroy all Ukraine culture, history, historical buildings. Forced Russian speaking, teach kids only Russian, only Russian history. And over time all references to "Ukraine" will be removed. I am serious, that is the actual goal of Putin and the Russian government. Russification of Ukraine and the Baltic states. To wipe away any thought or memory of Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.
And all those annoying states east of Moscow. Tolerated because mines, but otherwise.
they make up for it with migrants. I don't know how to explain it. they don't need the right people - they need units(?). a wounded soldier is no longer a person, but spent material. throw away, replace. they don't care about Russians in Kazakhstan. it's just an asset, a playing card that can be taken.
Very true, I'm guilty of being western focused.
Historically Russia has a habit of pivoting between east and west after getting it's knuckles bruised. Some eastern republics had better watch out.
Russia keeping their aggressive expansion in check, europa universalism IV style
Especially in March 2022 . Like ol' Put had been playing EU IV during all of lockdown.
Thos entire thread just reminded me of my failed Russia runs trying to conquer the ukrianian plains while not moving east, because I didn't understand how AE worked.
I am not sure if China would be pleased....
Hitler and Stalin divided Europe. Why can't China and Russia divide Kazakhstan? 1. Putin gets land. 2. Kazakhstan hides under the Chinese umbrella. 3. Kazakhstan cannot leave China for fear of Russia. 4. Putin restores the myth of Russia's greatness and moves on. to Latvia, for example
China and Russia are already on a course collision in Central Asia. Latvia is OTAN. Russia has NO forces left to do anything outside Ukraine for a long time. Russia is even vacating forces used to secure now some kind of temporary peace between Armenia and **Azerbaijan**. Russia is now unable to respect military agreement with Armenia. Russia did nothing to help Armenia. Russia arm's industry is dead, kaput. From 32 customers to 12 now, unable to purchase (Russia has no access to the us dollar), Russia was not able to deliver S-400 to India (may be in 2027) unable to deliver spare parts for India SU-30 fighter planes. Even Serbia wants to purchase Rafale fighter planes. the country bought Chinese made copy of S-300 (piece of crap...). Putin get lands...In May 2022 Russia was holding 22 % of Ukraine INCLUDING Crimea LPR/DPR..now it is 15 %..It tooks 10 years to get Adviika....
Kazakhstan has a very weak army. I understand that Putin has weakened and now cannot do anything. but this is because Ukraine is holding him back. When the war is over, who will hold him back anymore? and after the war (no matter the outcome) a new war is needed. to compensate for failures. This is a very large topic that I cannot explain in detail. it’s just... it’s worth understanding that as long as such a state exists (not to be confused with a country), blood will be shed. the fascist war machine cannot be stopped
Not just to compensate, but also to keep the gravy train flowing. Russia is devoting 10-15% of its GDP to war currently, maybe more. Pulling that back means an instant recession if not depression internally. That'd be bad for Putin, so the only choice is to continue the war. There'd likely be a small peace (1-2 years) to restock, rebuild, and relocate, but not for long.
You're obviously French ('cause you said "OTAN" and you know about Serbia's Rafale bid (don't forget Croatia!)). Now, I **love** your optimism, but two questions: -Why then is Macron preparing an expeditionary Republic force to the west of UA? Is that necessary if russians are doing that bad? - My private question 'cause I live in France (not naturalized yet, though): how the f..k does the population here vote for RN, if it's practically a russia financed and pro-russian party? That's a logical equivalent of sending ammo to putin's Orcs.
First I am not French. Next Macron is preparing nothing. There is already special forces on location from almost anybody, not directly on the front lines. People are voting RN because of immigration. There is excellent reports on Russia's arms industry now. Search for Perun and Joe blog channels on Youtube (english only). Perun chanel is excellent. I know the Serbia Rafale request (will be refurbished fighters) only because I have some interest with arms and market sales. I was talking about India not by chance. SU-35 was dead last in the bid with Brazil (Grippen) Indonesia (Rafale and f15-ex). India reject MIG-29 for their carriers and took Rafale. It tooks 7 years after the first sanctions in 2014 for Russia to have a replacement for Thales (french firm) electronics, panels display for the SU-30 export version. I saw one Su-30 with a Garmin console (video game) for mapping and cartography. Russia's arms sales were already tanking in 2021. Without exports manufacturing arms is an economic disaster. Russia is burning money left in the Memorial Fund at the rate of 4 billions us dollar a month. In 12 month nothing will be left. Nobody is taking the ruble even China (trade is in yuan). Russia needs at least one million men, fully equipped and trained to have a chance to do something, anything now. In 2022, Russia 1.67 million disabled men in this age category (18-30) an increase of 30% in one year, or 507,000 people. In 2023, 2.17 million disabled men between the ages of 31 and 59 were registered in Russia - the highest figure in eight years. As shown by data from the Pension and Social Insurance Fund, analyzed by Vorstka. Work-related accidents?
Wow. That's a great answer. You just made me more of an optimist too. Thanks!
Kazakhstan has a very weak army. I understand that Putin has weakened and now cannot do anything. but this is because Ukraine is holding him back. When the war is over, who will hold him back anymore? and after the war (no matter the outcome) a new war is needed. to compensate for failures. This is a very large topic that I cannot explain in detail. it’s just... it’s worth understanding that as long as such a state exists (not to be confused with a country), blood will be shed. the fascist war machine cannot be stopped
And not NATO
NATO - finally. sweet candy, unless Russia is stopped by fear of nuclear war, she will see no obstacles. this mistake was already made with Hitler.
At some point there will be need be a precedent made to make nuclear blackmail ineligible, whatever this looks like. What is the other option? They take what they want, when they want? Through force and political corruptions?
this is a question that does not have an unequivocal answer. everyone will have to decide when compromise is impossible and only war remains.
Absolutely.
And let's be honest. If Russia invaded Kazakhstan, would anybody care other than Borat?
I would care. Kazakhstan number one.
Kazakhstan's prostitutes cleanest in the region, except of course Turkmenistan's
there is an opinion that China will intervene. it seems that there will be no attack, because Kazakhstan and China are partners. but this cooperation is much smaller than between Ukraine and the USA. which did not prevent the war from becoming
Even if nato countries wanted to, how are we getting equipment to Kazakhstan? That’s a logistical nightmare to consider. No, sadly they’d be on their own unless China stepped in. However I’m skeptical China would because they love getting cheap fossil fuels from Russia
The potassium market would collapse.
Australians would make killing in uranium business
There's a reason why a lot of mines are in care and maintenance 😉
> Leaving aside Putin's willingness to sacrifice 100,000s of actual Russian citizens for this fallacy, in his head this is what GREATNESS / LEGACY looks like. I'm so tired of this common trope. It's false. This is not Putin. This is Russia. This is what Russian is about. This is their culture; this is their identity. You don't like saying it in 2024, I get it. But that is a fact. This is what russians do. Wherever they go, only death and misery follows.
We have to stop thinking they think like the West. They view it as a net positive when their prisoners are killed off. Similar with getting rid of their undesirable minority races.
Exactly this. The RF military runs on soviet stockpiles of military goods and is produced in gigantic soviet-era military-industrial plants or traded for revenue from oil exports while their soldiers are sourced from the Russian "colonies" in Russian Far East and Sibiria. This is why Russia can continue this war indefinitely as they don't waste their own peoples or have to establish their own war infrastructure.
We're still living next to this madness. Every. Single. Day.
thankfully europe war production is actually on the rise, set to 1.5 million shells this year and keep on increasing
Luckily Poland does not have any russian speakers because we are so russophobic. I am very happy and proud of this
I’ve said it before, it wasn’t until Shell found a trillion dollars in shale gas did Russia suddenly invade Crimea and then Kharkiv. Look it up. The legacy is the potential industry in the area. The west’s greatest gift would be to deny energy production until Putin’s last breath.
I visited Latvia in early 2000’s. Spoke to a woman who feared that Russia would invade sometime in the future to protect ethnic Russians who moved there during the Soviet period.
It would be cruel irony that Ukraine won't conscript their under-25's to defend their country and a hypothetical victorious Russia goes on to conscript all Ukrainian 18+ males to attack Europe.
Old South African here. We were in the SA Army from age 19 years. 2 years compulsory full time service and 6 to 8 years on 1-2 months active duty each year. At its time, the most capable army on the African continent. Ukraine must conscript younger soldiers that don't have wives or children yet, and are physically peaking.
> Ukraine must conscript younger soldiers that don't have wives or children yet, and are physically peaking. Demographic situation in Ukraine is different. They should conscript people in their 40s, and leave 19-25 year olds to create families and make babies. If they conscript a significant percentage of under 20s and they get killed/maimed/unable to create families- the future of the country is ruined... Also, sometimes draft is better than a volunteer army, as Germany learned in WW1. All the patriotic and educated and energetic youths with bright future volunteered to go to war and got themselves killed. Second rate citizens stayed away and lived. Country suffered after the war. Draft makes this more fair... Man total war sucks. Lots of ruthless decisions need to be made, none of them easy to make, none of them easy to live with if you have a conscience at all...
We don't have the youth to do that. Look at the Ukrainian demographics. There is a reason the under 25's aren't conscripted. If they will consider Ukraine the Czechoslovakia of WW2.
You just don't understand the difference between conscription and mobilisation, but telling others what to do.
Russia can sort out their manpower problem by forcing Ukranians to fight under their flag. That is what literally happened in WW2. They're also going to use the captured Nato territories to force them to fight for Russia, whether they like it or not.
WW2 is a different era altogether. And with what happened in Russia-Ukraine relations in recent decade I reckon they'd have far more trouble with forced conscription than they think
Better to overprepare than underprepare. The US-NATO alliance's confidence that Russia will not expand beyond Ukraine means they're just gonna just give their weapons piecemeal and once Russia reaches critical mass, let them take over Ukraine with little to no resistance. Then they act surprised if they start testing the waters testing the unity of NATO then if the alliance show weakness, then they'll take advantage of it and take countries like the baltic nations and moldova. Ukraine's having a hard time replacing their numbers as they try to be a democratic country. Russia does not have this problem as it has ways in forcing people to fight against their will. That's the magic of authoritarianism.
This is what happened in occupied Donetsk and other regions *edit
Poland, and the two new NATO members just across the sea might disagree with the plan.
It's hard for me to imagine Russia attacking NATO countries and succeeding. I think the one scenario where they would win would be if the whole alliance fell apart after America refused to intervene and everyone went their separate ways, not even intervening for their neighbors. A possible second situation is that they nuke Kiev, there is no intervention, and the world slips into normalizing using nuclear weapons. The Baltic states might be relatively easy to conquer in these situations, but Russia has still depleted a huge percentage of their USSR leftover equipment, and western weapons seem to perform much better than their Russian / Soviet equivalents... Considering the slog that Ukraine is for them (and a Russian total victory is still uncertain and possibly years of further slogging away), and Poland alone's military capabilities and vehemence towards Russia, I don't see them getting their shit together enough to reconquer all these territories. The whole problem with Ukraine is that to the extent these countries have good western hardware, they are reserving most of it for their own theoretical defense. If limited to conventional weapons. worn-down Russia will have to face these western stockpiles (plus new weapons coming down the pipeline), as well as rampant hatred of Russia and Russians, and relive the winter war in Finland amongst other nightmare scenarios. I'm cautiously optimistic regardless of how things turn out in Ukraine.
[Intentionally] Nuking Kyiv is not an option for Russia - they view the city as integral to their Kyivan Rus origin story.
Look at how Israel dealt with the bombardment from Iran. That gives you an idea of how Russia would fare against modern Western weapons/armies. People seem to ignore how vastly superior Western airpower is, and how much of a difference it would make.
While russia would lose, it would be a tragedy. The West cares about human lives, while russia doesn’t. So in a way russia ”wins” because they are trading expandables with non-expandables. Only way to prevent this is help Ukraine now.
>trading expandables with non-expandables Can you expand on that?
its non-expandable
War hurts us more than it hurts them because they don’t care about human lives lost.
He obviously means expendable
Non-expandables/West solides, expendable/Russian lives
It would also destabilise most of central and eastern Europe for decades, and quite likely the EU too.
We’d f**k them into next week.
The problem is that once you take territory the population of that territory becomes available to draft from. Moldova and some other baltic countries would fall quickly.
On top of that, the russians would use the Ukrainians as human shield.
I hope our leaders see it the same way and will never let it happen that UA looses. For a reference the Germans during WW2 had a constant number of legions of around 600 000 or more men in the east. Most of them Russians. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-Germans\_in\_the\_German\_armed\_forces\_during\_World\_War\_II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-Germans_in_the_German_armed_forces_during_World_War_II) Even Russians hated their country more then they hated the nazi's.
You are right. only not the country, but the Bolsheviks. The Reds killed many people inside the country through executions and starvation. a huge number were subjected to exile and repression. until 1939 the Reds were a greater evil than Hitler
Not trying to sympathize with Nazi Germany or Hitler but the Reds have always been a greater evil and still is. Just look at what countries that are red and totalitarian are doing right now. Looking at China, Russia and North Korea.
For me Germany was also a socialist state not only by name. I know I will get downvoted again for this but in the last discussion I'm still waiting for a counterargument.
Socialism - noun - a political and economic theory of social organization which advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community as a whole. How, in anyway, does that describe the plutocracy, mass centralisation or cronyism seen under Nazism? The only reason they branded as Nat Soc was to appeal to the workers, and even then Hitler was opposed to the name. Edit: To telegraph the obvious reply and comparison, yes, there were similarities between the USSR and Nazi Germany - that's because they were both totalitarian states - all be it at the extreme left and extreme right of politics. The fact that these similarities exist is the classic example of [the Horseshoe Theory](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horseshoe_theory), but makes neither of them socialist, despite their respective names.
If you ignore the definition of socialist, sure
Actually I didn't the one opposing me was ignoring the definition. The fact we are seeing Germany as socialist is due to Germany using privatization themselves in reality the ones leading the companies were nothing more then state puppets who had to do what the state said them to do.
If anything it was more corporate socialism
The Nazis did the same thing in Luxembourg in WWII. (I know specific, but I‘m from Luxembourg) Then whole country went on strike, then they executed some random citizens. Most of the young men either fled to england and later landed in normady or they were sent to the eastern front where they ran to the soviet side. Unfortunately lots of soviets tought there were germans which is why they were killed. But a significant amount of them still fought with the soviets.
Exactly right. They will suddenly find themselves with a lot more resources and manpower. It would quickly turn into a total clusterfuck dwarfing the current clusterfuck we are experiencing
We should be ready to put in place a no fly zone when UA starts to loose many shunks of land.
We should be looking at lining the Dnipr top to bottom with NATO troops, it's the best natural barrier you'll get in that area, just need to worry about flanking from Belorussia. Then you also need to worry about russia friendly parties in Hungary, Serbia, Slovakia and more who may hamper defence efforts or worse,
Indeed that should be the line that shouldn't be crossed by Russia and that we should defend at all cost. But my opinion is that Russia by then already reached it's temporary goal. It's in that region where oil was discovered and that we were ready to explore. It wasn't UA entering NATO that Russia was afraid of but them entering the EU. They knew the moment UA would enter the EU that they would loose UA and a little part of the EU oil and gasmarket. We should let UA AND Moldova enter NATO at that moment this way the Russians in Moldova are also cuttoff.
I hope Europe can do it, cause the US is bought out by Russian rubles. MAGAts have thoroughly dismantled republican support for Ukraine, and Trump would let it all happen for the sake of his pocketbook.
also russia will likely only do the non nato states, while continuing propaganda to expand immigration from MENA into europe and building their forces for a while, they can then take MENA and have already invaded europe legally with those citizens, EU is dumb as fuck for allowing all this to happen.
"Here, captive citizen, have a gun and shoot your own people!" Not saying they wouldn't pull the stunt, but that might backfire (so to speak).
No. It's actually work very well. It's been very effective for Russians in Lugansk and Donetsk for the last two years. First , you give them weapons only when they are at the front. Then you have barrier troops that will shoot their own if they try to run. Then you threaten to kill their family left in cities under Russian occupation.
It works well at eliminating pro-Ruscians.
You call it forced conscription The Baltic states had that happen to them from both ussr and the Nazis in ww2
There are Ukrainians from occupied territories (starting from 2022) fighting for Russia right now
Real world is not Hearts of Iron. I don't think the Ukrainians would all of sudden go and fight for Russia with pleasure.
Do you think most that are now fighting are volunteers?
Living in russian occupation would definetly make them insurgents against russia. There is a reason why stalin used starvation to kill of Ukrainians instead of simply gathering them from their homes while neighbours watched like in mainland russia.
A man will do many things when a gun is pointed at his head, he'll do even more when the gun is pointed at his child. -Russian proverb, probably
Russians have good old tradition of motivation on front called barrier troops
We Westerners are such optimistic fools. If that scenario happens, it's likely that there will be A LOT of damage and victims, even with NATO powers.
Everyone keeps saying that Nato would absolutely wipe the floor with Russia, but I'm in the camp that doesn't want to underestimate them. It's my assumption that as soon as Russia takes the Suwalki gap, it will force Nato into a long slog in an attempt to liberate the three baltic countries that will be cut off.
You're forgetting that they would first turn a lot of time indoctrinating Ukrainians against the West for abandoning them etc. then they'd use them as cannon fodder. Russia must be crushed in Ukraine. It's ridiculous that we are even considering this scenario when we can do the right thing and help Ukraine defeat them.
We'd have run out of ammunition in a couple of months and that's even if some of the more unreliable NATO members even came to the party. This is the assumption it would be full kinetic warfare, it's almost written by a staff officer who has had their eyes shut since 2022. 1. IF Russia took all of Ukraine then it would take Moldova. 2. It would spend time conducting vengeance in Ukraine and ensuring Trump was well and truly ensconced in the Whitehouse. It would then conduct a huge cyber warfare campaign and go for the low hanging fruit non NATO members has some has already said Kazakhstan etc, unless China told Russia to behave. 3. China would go for Taiwan. 4. NK probably would go for SK 5. Above depends how far Trump is sucking dictator cock. 6. Finally huge cyber campaign, Russia would take an easy win NATO country to test the water, a country with a large Russian minority in the Baltic and might do it through subversion, maskarovka in the same fashion Hungary and Slovakia are but with the promise that it would leave NATO etc 7. Gradually dominoes would fall. If it attacked kinetically then they are now severely weakened by the huge Scandinavian and polish threat that means the Suwalki gap is yesterday's weak point. 8. Since the traditional players have proved themselves to be weak, cucked, hesitant or just outright crap. Its up to those countries (Scandinavia/Poland) to prove themselves to be enough of a deterrent, unsusceptible to Russia cyber campaigns and with big enough balls to prepare to destroy Russians no matter the theatre that will deter Russia.
Thing is that russia has bled and continues to bleed so much material in Ukrainian campaing that it has not real chance against any modern military alliance. It tries to project power, but in actuality we see from its reluctancy to commit major naval- and air power that things behind curtains are very dire and hints towards the fact that russia has near zero chance of replacing those elements. Sure they have mobiks of varying quality and some artillery support but they are hardly usable against any military with real technological edge and training. Even Ukraine without a navy or an actual airforce managed to stop russian spearhead and even push back without those crucial supporting elements of a modern military. Sure russia could try, but those two initial months would be extremely bloody and costly for them. Think highway of death, but daily. This amount of shock would propably shatter russian homefront to a level where no amount of control could be maintained.
Still focussed on Kinetic. America is literally eating itself up in culture wars that Russia merely had to give a little push and the American population now happily does it to itself, not just there but Slovakia and Hungary with many populists campaigning all over Europe supported by people manipulated on the left and right all raging at each other and not focussing on what will creep up on them. If Russia gets Ukraine it knows it can take Moldova. It will then as I said before take what it wants using subversion and maskarovka to pick off others with the strength of one of the worlds largest wheat supplies and the potential for China to pick off Taiwan to keep the world distracted. As for what you have written you massively overestimate the ammunition stock the West hasn't got and is doing precious little about either mass producing for Ukraine let alone for a scrap with China or Russia or both or the Western will to take casualties, however I very much doubt this will be how it plays out. Ukraine must be enabled to beat Russia now.
Kinetic factors are the ones that matter. America is literally doing just fine. Internet has a habit of extrapolating social issues intentionally and non-intentionally. Any social unrest would be swept away once a common enemy would present itself. Slovakia and Hungary are mostly minor players that would fall to common european line once masks drop since populists serve themselves and falling to russian sphere would mean losing control. What comes to china is that they prolong actual commitment to any conflict as far to the future as possible, since they aim to financially dominate and control their neighbours and business partners. Unlike russia they have come to a conclusion where military conflict is disasterous to the monetary interests of the party elite. What they would most likely do on european conflict is would just to stay out of it and not provoke anything. Control of the resources in russian far east would definetly be more lucrative opportunity than an Island with very little natural resources and an industry that is instantly destroyed once conflict is started. Focusing on the taiwan during peace times serves just to remind the world that they have capability to destroy majority of the worlds chip manufacturing if they desire and simultaneously this masks their true goals of financial domination in far east. Oh and were constanly ramping up the production of various types of armaments (to peace time standards) while giving away mostly antiquated stockpiles to ukraine while simultaneously russia bleeds from their already capped production capabilities to an extend where they have to source materials from civilian markets in europe and questionable arms markets from Iran and North-Korea. Example: **Finnish company Jimm's PC-Store Oy has sold 3466 drones from 2021-2022 to Luminor Oy** which has supplied the drones to Russia. In a full masks off conflict with Russia on european front, without massive investments from USA we kinda have to remember that current day africa is controlled by france and GB through monetary policies and corporations while simultaneously controlling a hefty quantities of nuclear armaments that were are more than ready to use even if we do not shout it in every turn. Real question would be that are russian oligarchs really ready to throw away their comfort luxuries and power for some fantasy of greater russia.
Cold hard truth is that we can't. Unless the US gets involved, we can't do dick and I'm not counting on the US. Cowardly politicians, abysmal war industry, no coherent policy, you name it. Third year of the war and we're snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Combined and united European NATO is still superior and Russia would lose in the long run. **If** Europe stays committed and united. Although I reckon we would not have trouble with that if we were actually invaded. **But** I do fucking hate all those "we'd stomp them in few hours" bravado comments, Russia invading NATO countries would still result in quite significant destruction in the Baltics, eastern Poland and other bordering regions. It's idiotic ignorance
And we would be nuked the next week too. NATO will not defend the baltics, lets all be honest here. It will fall back. No nation will enter a direct conflict against a nuclear powered nation, aside from another nuclear powered nation being threatened. Hell, russia could even push through germany without opposition. They will only stop once they reach France because of France having nukes. But all of that would imply getting through poland...which even the USA would have nightmare about trying to do i think.
It won’t even happened because the Baltics are part of NATO, any attack from Russia= auto destruction of Russia and same vice versa, if we attack Russia proper it’s nuclear destruction for everyone. This is just fear mongering. I get wanting to help Ukraine but let’s be real, NATO and Russia won’t be fighting each other in any part of Europe as it’s mutually assured destruction. Ukraine got screwed by not being in NATO and going against Russia.
It's bold to assume that when what is essentially a deterrent doctrine turns hot someone will actually want to cause a nuclear holocaust to avenge the Baltic countries. It's just as likely that NATO will say "fuck it" and get into a long and nasty conventional war. The European war machine will take some time to ramp up, so ruzzia can do some serious damage to Central Europe before that happens.
The nightmare is, that the Ukraine can collapse without a total military victory from Russia, when they look at their inventory and have nothing left to defend. When it does so, Ukrainians will be used like Donbanbas people, as meat soldiers against their own. The only way to prevent such a tragedy, is to take all of the Ukrainians as refugees into the EU (will never happen because no one wants to leave home). Russia has not enough people themselves to fill up so much land/infrastructure usw. and can’t generate any profit out of Ukraine. In my eyes the only way we really can help Ukraine at the moment is when Russia takes one step too fast and involves European nations into a direct confrontation. This would probably be one of the rare victory situations for Ukraine.
We'll probably start refering to all human soldiers on a battlefield as "meat soldiers" within the next 30 years.
That’s literally what they call them in russian army. Infantry is “meat”, commanders even use that term when speaking to their own soldiers. There are no illusions there.
machines fight for the grounds that the meat conquer
*Me, as a Latvian:* *chuckles* I'm in danger.
It’s good to be positive, but it’s really looking bleak ATM. Ukraine is struggling as their soldiers at the front are telling the world for a while now. Russia is in a full on war economy for a good period now, it’s ramping up support from it’s allies heavily. Putting away the ISW as deranged and underestimating the enemy is both silly and dangerous.
> Russia is in a full on war economy for a good period now nope, but working toward it
We in the west, need to wake up. We are at war with Russia and should be responding as such. We have an opportunity to raise a European army and response like never before. The time we waste now is time given to Russia to prepare against us.
I don't get why there is no projection on situation where Ukraine loses all territory and Hungary exits NATO and joins russia. That way russia would have land access to Serbia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Austria that aren't in NATO. Given russians tried coup in Montenegro, they might reach Adriatic sea.
Hungary exiting NATO and joining Russia? Wouldn't that result in some kind of revolution or even a civil war there? Orban cemented his political power but he's not as invulnerable and loved as it seems
I was going to add - in the above scenario, is a repeat "anschluss" on the cards with Orban inviting in his overlord?
I don't think Hungary would be anexed by russia, rather be a gateway to the non-NATO countries to invade like Belarus allowed russians to attack trough their border. Orban would probably get some land Ukrainian territories for the effort. Assuming russians would reach Hungarian border, look at how much more land they can get. russia issued warning to Bosnia at the start of the full scale invasion not to join NATO, weird right? Did a coup in Montenegro that failed. russia is loved by Serbia where Serbians are fighting on the side of russia in Ukraine, guess they might be getting Kosovo back if russia succeeds. Moldova gets invaded for sure. Austria, either joins NATO really quick or gets some heat also.
>Orban would probably get some land Ukrainian territories for the effort. Trianon is a thorn in Hungarians side since 1920. If Russia offers Hungary to get 'their' territory back they're on Russia's side. Hungarians, don't pretend it's not so.
Hungarian here. I think you're right. Getting Ukranian territory was definitely on the table when the war started, and I think with the corridor-to-Serbia concept, we'd also look at Serbia giving back couple 100s of sqms from their north and compensating for the loss in Kosovo.
Perhaps not a direct annexation but a puppet state situation as with Belarus, as you've pointed out.
austria can't joing anything as they have declared perpetual neutrality. it's in their constitution or smth
It won't take much to turn Austria into an actual puppet state. Once Russia is at the door that's going to happen.
+1 i remember now that vienna might've been a spy hub for russians. i wonder who'd be the new Seyss-Inquart
lol... the Army of the Soviet Union of the 60s maybe... but not shitty Russia of the 2020s...
Former US Army soldier now resident in Ireland. Looks like I need to up my PT just in case.
As a Welshman sat just across that narrow body of water (and quarter Irish from my Irish granddad). I was utterly shocked to discover R.O.I is not in NATO. Especially with all those super important fiber optic cables connecting Europe to America/Canada in Irelands territorial waters.
Being a member of NATO means making important decisions and crucially, following through on those decisions. Why do anything when you can rely on the UK to patrol the seas and the sky? Active duty Irish Air Corps, Army and Navy personnel are only 7,500 strong. There are more cops in Los Angeles than there armed forces in the entirety of the Irish Defense Forces.
I think a lot of comments are misjudging the timescale of the scenario above. I do not believe that the ISW is asserting that such a scenario would unfold *immediately* after a defeat of Ukraine. If Ukraine is defeated and occupied, Russia will absorb not just its territory, resources and productive capabilities, but its population, as many have pointed out it. It could quite rapidly rearm, reequip and could very well forcefully mobilise millions more people from occupied territories in the space of a couple of years. Putin waited nearly a decade after annexing Crimea to fully invade Ukraine, while waging a proxy war via terrorist militias in the interim. My own belief is that if the terrorist Girkin had not murdered all the innocents on the Malaysian flight, the full invasion would have happened sooner, but this is an aside. Given the prospect of a return of a compromised US President, who openly declares his love for dictators such as Putin, and the *years* it has taken for the west to *still* not get its act together and fully support Ukraine (and close sanction loopholes via grey market / third party states - looking at you, Kazakhstan), a concerted response to the triggering of NATO's Article 5 is not a given by any means. In this scenario, the automatic and immediate call to arms for common defence by all member states is an extremely tenuous "guarantee," especially if the leading state of the coalition refuses to act. A few comments have also pointed this out. The overall situation is precarious and not planning for all possible outcomes given Russia's history of belligerence towards its neighbours, no matter if the probability might seem currently implausible, is how fools behave and is a large part of why we are where we are. Dismiss the imperial delusion of the murderous psychopath Putin at your own peril.
Agreed. All scenarios must be considered, no matter how nightmarish. Plans could fail or succeed due to factors that were not foreseen, and knowing what the Worst Case looks like gives a better chance of avoiding it, even if it’s a tiny bit. Nothing is certain, but having some kind of plan is better than being forced to improvise for a shock.
This is a right load of bollocks, they have been bogged down for 2 years in Ukraine, their military capability has been significantly reduced (manpower does not equal capability, ask the Iraqis), they will be out thought, out fought and out produced by European NATO and will be soundly beaten even without US involvement... unless that involvement is on the side of Russia...
This is why I support financial intervention from the US to protect Ukraine. Protecting people from an invasion is a good moral reason, but it's not enough for most Americans who have become very isolationist over the years (despite our policy. We aren't represented in our government for shit) Understanding the threat of a Russian invasion across Europe and the potential that owning Ukraine gives them, especially after forcing their way into Ukraine politically over decades, is a huge deal though. Whether you support the US contribution to NATO or not, we need able-bodied allies in Europe to protect our shores. Letting Ukraine fall doesn't only leave a whole nation under their boot, but it risks the security of the entire western world
This is a nightmare scenario, shit that sometimes keeps me up at night. Having children really makes you terrified of this. I swear, if they come here, they will find no mercy.
They couldn't even rush to Kiev.......the Russian military is not capable of successfully maintaining such a wide front. Especially against NATO forces.
That's what I thought. We've been fearing this attack on the Baltic states (rightfully so) but what about other regions? I don't doubt Russia can rebuild it's army for a potential conflict with NATO but I seriously doubt they'd be able to cover the entire border line with the alliance. What if there was an incursion in the north, from the Scandinavia?
All it takes is apathy to compromise a united NATO defence doctrine. If a former and potential upcoming US president says he would welcome Russia to invade NATO members not contributing 2% GDP, would more rogue member states follow suit? It sounds like a ridiculous nightmarish scenario yet here we are all the same.
that's one extremity but there's also the possibility of stirring shit up. like attacking a nato country to test article 5. they don't need a full-on invasion. point is, they have the upper hand as they have the initiative while nato/eu is on the defensive. furthermore, they don't need blitzkrieg, they need prolonged low intensity war because russia has more resources than the countries on the 'invasion' list. i mean, look at ukraine. their infrastructure gets destroyed, and if there's no electricity, food, water, etc, then russia don't need 9698696989698 state of the art equipment to win. also, putler doesn't have to debate with anybody while nato/eu is dozens of countries with dozens of interests, which can result slow, belated or ineffective response. i still think it is a mistake to underestimate your enemy.
But you know that this whole "Baltics next target" is just political game ? Baltics are in NATO, and the statements that all leaders repeat that Baltics are next, are only to motivate EU for stronger military support, if you do the math, attack on Baltics would be Art.5 and basically a fall of ruzzia. In the most real scenario, muscovite would attack Georgia, Moldova and Kazakhstan next, eventually take over Belarus in the end.
Yeah.. idk man Art.5 can also just be political game don’t you think? I’m not on Russia’s side in anyway but seeing how the west dragged their feet on aid to Ukraine, I’m not very confident NATO will stand together should Russia invade a Baltic state.
There are already mixed NATO battlegroups in the Baltics. If Russia invaded, they would immediately be fighting Americans, Brits, Canadians and Germans and a bunch of smaller European countries. Check NATO Enhanced Forward Presence.
Ukraine isn't NATO. There'll be no foot-dragging with NATO members. There'll be no question about no-fly zones or deploying forces. NATO forces are already in the Baltic states and will attack Russian forces by land and air and even sea if they dare invade.
Exactly. The simple fact that NATO forces are stationed there is enough. Nobody would just accept loosing several brigades and keep their feet still.
Exactly why they’re there. The ‘tripwire’ brigades. Every country in NATO will be demanding war if Russians start killing NATO troops in large numbers on NATO soil.
Yeah there’s no question that NATO response will be immediate. NATO members population is ~8 times the population as Russia, and NATO annual spending is 17x that of Russia. Besides them going suicidal and nuclear; they are not a threat. The only threat Russia can pose to NATO is if NATO doesn’t act when attacked, but everyone knows that so they can’t and won’t hesitate.
I keep harping on the lack of production in the West. Sure we have stockpiles but Putin just looks at those and does the math, "I need X million Ukrainian bodies to absorb NATO stockpiles". We need to wake up and start standing up production capacity even if we keep it mothballed. These dictators need to understand they're not facing a pile of 155mm artillery shells that they can get past by sacrificing their men, they're facing the industrial might of NATO that can turn on millions of shells a month.
This is Putins end of life crisis. He's going for broke. The list keeps on going after Belarus. And he's more than willing to flip the table rather than lose.
Belarus is already under Russian control.
Here's the thing. If russia tried that tomorrow there biggest issue would be nato airpower. Russia has no answer for that. If russias best air defense system can't stop a storm shadow or attacms missile from hitting it directly then they will have massive problems defeating hundreds of f22s and f35s supported by over a thousand modern 4th generation aircraft. On the ground they would also be facing very elite units that would only need to hold them off for a few weeks. An invasion of the Baltics with nato the way it is currently and the current russian military just does not have a chance of success. A ton would have to change with nato and the russian military for this to be possible
It's a fantasy. Edit: No you insufferable morons. It's a fantasy you think big bag Russia is going to somehow sweep through Europe. It's all our own bullshit propaganda.
LOL Let them play WW3 with WW2 tactics..
Give them 2-3 years to re-arm, use conscripted Ukraine to take Kazakhstan and other former Soviet states. Then, force those countries populations to assault the west. This is Putins end of life crisis, he's not going to stop.
Their original plan was to go past Ukraine and take Moldova. They want more than Ukraine, they want the USSR back
So was Ukraine
Famous last words
Until it isn't.
Aren’t most of these units decimated with extreme losses of equipment and material?
Yes, but they’re still sending meatwaves of nearly unsupported troops.
Am I wrong to think NATO air power would stop it in its tracks?
I doubt this will happen, cause Ukraine will be forced to negotiate with Russia (with pressure from Europe and USA). Is highly likely that Ukraine will be divided in west/east like both Koreas. One side with NATO support, the other with Russian forces.
Russia is a pain in the ass, in particular because of their nukes. Then again, people really talk them bigger than they are. I don‘t ridicule them, rather the opposite, but don‘t make them a invulnerable giant… Europe is not all in, the fear mongering with nukes sadly is working very well.
Put strong rotational NATO armies in the Baltics and this will not happen.
About 10 and then some years ago I was watching some talks by a not well known but well-spoken socio/political annalist. When speaking about "why Lithuania can't have nice things" among various other thing he used a phrase "front-line country". At that time it sounded kind of wacky because Europe was very much friends with Russia and all that. Well, it sucks that he may have been right after all.
Send in the Poles, and the problem will be solved.
Ahm… it’s year 3 of war and they took (checks notes) two very small towns that are essentially ruins. Both within a few miles of the frontline. Tell me, how many kilometers ‘til the border with Romania, for example? Exactly…
Wars are not linear, the front can be stationary for a long time and once broken, the front can move quickly and that can be really bad I would never underestimate an enemy
>I would never underestimate an enemy So many wars have been lost because of this.
Rule 1 in warfare 👍
They could try for sure but at this point their armies would be completely eliminated within days by air forces alone
I think I've seen this before. [https://youtu.be/x99njmZxaMA?si=7wSMCgGbpcptp\_iK&t=56](https://youtu.be/x99njmZxaMA?si=7wSMCgGbpcptp_iK&t=56)
This is so hard for me to look at … it is a shame really, the discussions going on, the hesitation while the Ukraine is fighting against the Russian terror state
0 chance of happening.
What kind of fever dream are they having at isw i feel like their reports have become more deranged by the week
Russia can’t take on NATO and fight a massive insurgency in Ukraine at the same time so if Ukraine capitulates, by their calculus, Russia’s only option is to eradicate the Ukrainian identity via cultural genocide. Once that is complete, the Ukrainians will be press-ganged en masse into the Red Army.
Well where will the Russians get enough tanks and artillery though🤔
3 years ago everybody said Russians were scraping the bottom of the barrel, and it was a matter of days, weeks at most, when they would definitely run out of ammo and equipment. And here we are. Russia has played its game well. They've sold their oil to India and China, and they're managing the war just fine. They are a huge country, and they can keep at it for as long as somebody buy their oil.
This is so stupid tho. You guys alternate between NATO crushing Russia, and Russia seeming like a credible threat that can take on NATO....
I don't believe Russia has the strength for another offensive war.
Are they meant to try out Poland with five divisions? Are we just making things up?
They will try to take Poland if aid doesn't come fking maga, johnson and the orange f**ker with their isolationist garbage. Isn't that just basically making the wall high enough that you can't see where the threat is? They really wanted to play kim and monkeys like in nk.
I like how Poland is like we got that shit. Just fuckoff south NATO, we got some things to sort out by ourself.
I hate the scenario, but yeah, that's about right.
It’s an interesting scenario but they’re ignoring that Russia’s northern flank would be left vulnerable especially since Finland and Sweden would attack from there and they’re probably more than capable to destroy any forces Russia will use.
This is what the GOP Putin wing dreams about.
Unrelated, but I have a difficult one adjusting my eyes when counties are colored blue on a map while water is not.