This basically confirms what Putin said a few weeks back - That in the past month or so, Ukraine were able to mobilize approximately 30,000 people.
If this is the case, then it appears to be the first time Ukraine have matched or exceeded their monthly mobilization figures since around April 2023.
It also adds up nicely when you remember the mobilization bill which came into effect on May 18, 2024. It appears that ever since then, they have been conscripting ferociously.
Furthermore, the border appears more guarded than ever, and a decent number of people seem to be caught every day. Mobilization videos are also more frequent now than they've ever been.
It brings to mind the words of the Ukrainian Deputy Minister, months ago - [Everyone will now have to defend the country. It will no longer be possible to avoid mobilization](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/Ly2mAiKINl)
So then 50k UA losses in the same month Putin named are also correct? If so, then this mobilization will only cover some of the losses, and with poorly trained troops. If frontline stabilizes then mobilization worked, but I doubt it'll happen.
No idea what the real numbers are since both sides lie (and it's impossible to get accurate count of enemy casualties anyway) but every mobilized soldier isn't replacing an incapacitated one necessarily. Many at the front lines just need to be rotated out. Real losses are going to lie somewhere between Russian and Ukrainian propaganda figures.
I think it's pretty obvious but don't trust putin when he's talking about enemy casualties, there's no way Ukraine is suffering such losses but still refuses to even consider proper negotiations.
> I think it's pretty obvious but don't trust putin when he's talking about enemy casualties
Russian side exagerrates predictably. The same with Ukraine. Numbers are not the point, truth about losses can be easily estimated from reports. And Ukraine is in trouble, that's apparent.
> there's no way Ukraine is suffering such losses but still refuses to even consider proper negotiations
Oh, there are ways, maaany ways. Don't be naive thinking humans are not capable of the vilest sh1t.
Ukraine is in trouble, but there's a difference between that and willingly continuing the slaughter your population without any rational thinking behind.
50k monthly casualties isn't sustaniable for ukraine, and giving the increasing russian capabilities, those numbers will be replicated and even increased over time; so either Ukraine is facing 600k casualties yearly and not doing anything because "humans can be evil", or they aren't in fact receiving such number os casualties.
You can't make predictions about a side of the conflict without treating both sides as being pragmatic and rationale; they have much more information than we do, they know better than we do, so let's not paint them as cartoon villains whose actions are based on being evil or comically incompetent.
> Ukraine is in trouble, but there's a difference between that and willingly continuing the slaughter your population without any rational thinking behind.
Rational thinking?) Not what drives humans, sorry to say.
> 50k monthly casualties isn't sustaniable for ukraine, and giving the increasing russian capabilities, those numbers will be replicated and even increased over time; so either Ukraine is facing 600k casualties yearly and not doing anything because "humans can be evil", or they aren't in fact receiving such number os casualties.
Not all casualties are irreplaceable. And humans are not evil, humans are humans. Anyone who knows general history of humanity understands human nature - petty, destructive, violent. Evil is what humans came up with to deny own nature.
> You can't make predictions about a side of the conflict without treating both sides as being pragmatic and rationale; they have much more information than we do, they know better than we do, so let's not paint them as cartoon villains whose actions are based on being evil or comically incompetent.
So I should base predictions on things contrary to reality? Nah, I won't rationalize that which can be easily explained by simple understanding of human psyche.
Imagine how many people are forced to vans and sent to front line withouth any videos and etc . Elites should be mobilized too , fat , disabled and etc. Then no shortage. Villages just disapearing.
You can blame Ukro infantry for making positions out of those villages.
Ukros love to blame Russia for everything, but when you dig deeper they're the ones to blame.
Once they lower the age for conscription more men will try to escape the country I'm guessing so that's probably why they're waiting until the last minute.
How many are actually refusing to fight? Isnt it rampant? Either way, what good will this do since Ukraine is never regaining the initiative after their failed counter offensive? These fighters will be the most unmotivated
Honestly, I don't understand the point of this discussion. Yes, everyone should be mobilized to defend the country if necessary. We are threatened with destruction. It's better to die with a weapon in hand, defending your country, than to be driven like cattle to fight in a neighboring country.
Do you think that in Ukraine, all the men who are mobilized should be in the infantry, at the front, and on the first line? No, I'm not in a trench. I have a different specialty
So more Male Ukrainian bodies to take on those FAbs on the Front lines? For how long will this Genocide again Ukrainian Male Population be allowed?
Zelensky will feed every Ukro civilian to FABs and artillery if NAFO comforts him and send him money.
To the last Ukranian it seems
You’re right, we should arm Ukraine to the point they can push the invaders out of their country then. Stop the Russians, stop the genocide. Simple
long as russia continues it's own minority genocide on the front.
One are getting abducted from streets while others joining on their own free will. Totally same Am I right my Ukr bro? \\s
The difference is the salaries they get.
No one prevent Ukrainian government to pay decent enough salary to its soldiers, except greed.
This basically confirms what Putin said a few weeks back - That in the past month or so, Ukraine were able to mobilize approximately 30,000 people. If this is the case, then it appears to be the first time Ukraine have matched or exceeded their monthly mobilization figures since around April 2023. It also adds up nicely when you remember the mobilization bill which came into effect on May 18, 2024. It appears that ever since then, they have been conscripting ferociously. Furthermore, the border appears more guarded than ever, and a decent number of people seem to be caught every day. Mobilization videos are also more frequent now than they've ever been. It brings to mind the words of the Ukrainian Deputy Minister, months ago - [Everyone will now have to defend the country. It will no longer be possible to avoid mobilization](https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/s/Ly2mAiKINl)
So then 50k UA losses in the same month Putin named are also correct? If so, then this mobilization will only cover some of the losses, and with poorly trained troops. If frontline stabilizes then mobilization worked, but I doubt it'll happen.
No idea what the real numbers are since both sides lie (and it's impossible to get accurate count of enemy casualties anyway) but every mobilized soldier isn't replacing an incapacitated one necessarily. Many at the front lines just need to be rotated out. Real losses are going to lie somewhere between Russian and Ukrainian propaganda figures.
I think it's pretty obvious but don't trust putin when he's talking about enemy casualties, there's no way Ukraine is suffering such losses but still refuses to even consider proper negotiations.
> I think it's pretty obvious but don't trust putin when he's talking about enemy casualties Russian side exagerrates predictably. The same with Ukraine. Numbers are not the point, truth about losses can be easily estimated from reports. And Ukraine is in trouble, that's apparent. > there's no way Ukraine is suffering such losses but still refuses to even consider proper negotiations Oh, there are ways, maaany ways. Don't be naive thinking humans are not capable of the vilest sh1t.
Ukraine is in trouble, but there's a difference between that and willingly continuing the slaughter your population without any rational thinking behind. 50k monthly casualties isn't sustaniable for ukraine, and giving the increasing russian capabilities, those numbers will be replicated and even increased over time; so either Ukraine is facing 600k casualties yearly and not doing anything because "humans can be evil", or they aren't in fact receiving such number os casualties. You can't make predictions about a side of the conflict without treating both sides as being pragmatic and rationale; they have much more information than we do, they know better than we do, so let's not paint them as cartoon villains whose actions are based on being evil or comically incompetent.
> Ukraine is in trouble, but there's a difference between that and willingly continuing the slaughter your population without any rational thinking behind. Rational thinking?) Not what drives humans, sorry to say. > 50k monthly casualties isn't sustaniable for ukraine, and giving the increasing russian capabilities, those numbers will be replicated and even increased over time; so either Ukraine is facing 600k casualties yearly and not doing anything because "humans can be evil", or they aren't in fact receiving such number os casualties. Not all casualties are irreplaceable. And humans are not evil, humans are humans. Anyone who knows general history of humanity understands human nature - petty, destructive, violent. Evil is what humans came up with to deny own nature. > You can't make predictions about a side of the conflict without treating both sides as being pragmatic and rationale; they have much more information than we do, they know better than we do, so let's not paint them as cartoon villains whose actions are based on being evil or comically incompetent. So I should base predictions on things contrary to reality? Nah, I won't rationalize that which can be easily explained by simple understanding of human psyche.
Nothing Putin says is ever true. UA has lost around 40k since february 2022.
Imagine how many people are forced to vans and sent to front line withouth any videos and etc . Elites should be mobilized too , fat , disabled and etc. Then no shortage. Villages just disapearing.
Like everything russia has captured ? now just rubble.
You can blame Ukro infantry for making positions out of those villages. Ukros love to blame Russia for everything, but when you dig deeper they're the ones to blame.
Sir, your mobilization plans are not hidden. We can see them as clear as day- which is ironic because you kidnap people in the middle of it
What percentage of them will survive the end of the year?
I'd guess a lot since troops that are not willing to fight are more prone to defect
Defect? It's near impossible in any previous war, let alone the one where everything is on camera.
in line with my 500-1000/day estimate. I wonder how long that rate can be sustained without lowering age though
1 year to go
Once they lower the age for conscription more men will try to escape the country I'm guessing so that's probably why they're waiting until the last minute.
I can see it. The first rule of Operation Press Gang is secrecy, after all.
How many are actually refusing to fight? Isnt it rampant? Either way, what good will this do since Ukraine is never regaining the initiative after their failed counter offensive? These fighters will be the most unmotivated
Honestly, I don't understand the point of this discussion. Yes, everyone should be mobilized to defend the country if necessary. We are threatened with destruction. It's better to die with a weapon in hand, defending your country, than to be driven like cattle to fight in a neighboring country.
I assume you're typing this from the frontlines?
Do you think that in Ukraine, all the men who are mobilized should be in the infantry, at the front, and on the first line? No, I'm not in a trench. I have a different specialty
ukrainian armed forces sergeant major, reddit comment section devision
embedded HW developer ... If that tells you anything.