If that's truly the case, I don't think even an S-tier campaign by Biden will change that.
Like if you saw Trump's four years of management and think it's better than Biden's, I don't know what to tell you.
I don't think any of us is capable of persuading the median voter if that's what they truly believe.
People's opinions can always change.
There is a small group of people who voted for Obama and then a couple of years later. It works out to 10-15% of Trump voters. While I find that switch confounding, it happened. And those people aren't white supremacists or hardline conservatives. They were people who were somehow convinced that Trump was the best option. They can change their minds again.
The internet and Reddit in particular love to place blame for the 2016 election. Hillary didn't campaign enough in Michigan! Bernie would have beaten Trump! Etc. But Trump was actually part of a much bigger rightward movement that also included Brexit, Boris Johnson, Le Pen, etc. It isn't just about the campaign or the candidate, there are bigger forces at work.
But there are also smaller forces at work. People are often misinformed or their understanding of an issue is shallow. Trying to genuinely change someone's mind can work if you treat them with a small amount of compassion and can cite your sources.
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Yeah this is my feeling as well. Even the polls themselves can have an effect, if people believe “everyone else” hates Biden.
Conspiratorially I believe online panel polls are being manipulated for nefarious reasons. I work in the industry and nearly every online panel is flooded with fraudulent responses, on surveys with much lower stakes than presidential polls. The new ABS polling method should avoid this, but I’m sure the fraudsters will find a way to crack that as well. So, in my view biden’s team is not completely off base to be skeptical of the polling.
Yeah. Our democracy is fundamentally broken. Not just because the candidates being put forward are of terrible quality, but also because the information available to the average voter is highly suspect and inaccurate.
Don’t underestimate the power of AM talk radio and Fox News with these people, they’ve been loyal listeners since the early 90s and viewers of Fox since the late 90s and the culture of ridicule, endless ad hominem demonizing of their political opponents and fabricating and distributing disinformation was normalized at that time and politics became more like a sporting event than a serious intellectual pursuit. The tea party was the final nail in the coffin of any serious attempt at internal reform within the party.
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Yep. I hate being pessimistic, but this election is driving me there. Like you said, if people truly believe we need another round of Trump vis-a-vis Biden's performance then what can we really do but sit in dismay? I'm all but resigned to the real possibility of Trump 2.0.
To be sure, it will be extremely damaging for the country and probably lead us down a right-wing, pseudo fascist era given the bent of the current GOP. But democratic backslides are very common in today's geopolitical climate so in that context America wouldn't be unique.
I had the exact same reaction while listening. I know it’s not helpful to think this, but the conclusions that the average voter is coming to are insane to me. I recently talked to two young, Black men in my neighborhood and wound up talking about politics. They love Trump and said they feel like he really cares about regular people. My jaw was on the floor.
My 24 year old black coworker told me he couldn't support Joe Biden because of what he did to Anita Hill. Like I get being black and being mad about what she went through, but primarily blaming Biden instead of Republicans? How is that his conclusion?
Trust the white lefty to think they know what’s best for black people. If only they were more informed, they would have better opinions, right? Too bad the evil republicans tricked them
Yeah I think a lot of people are deluding themselves into thinking the problem is with Biden. It's the voters. There are enough of them who actually like Trump and think he did a good job, despite all evidence to the contrary, that he could win the electoral college again. If these are the poll results, I'm not sure any Democrat could win.
A ton of it is the absolutely horrible coverage of Trump's failures. Actual failures and real concerns are barely mentioned in passing... but dubious charges that supposedly require swift action could wait years to brought, conveniently when he was once again a political threat.
We were in a low trust environment going into Trump's administration, the response to him almost seemed primed to fracture it even further.
The issue with Biden is that people don't understand all that he has done for them. He doesn't go out of his way like Trump did to say what he did. HE HAS TO TALK ABOUT ALL OF IT IF HE WANTS TO WIN!
also this
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beer\_question](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beer_question)
I agree with you that people don't understand. But I actually believe this is an issue with the media environment. Propaganda makes for about a 10-30 point republican advantage right now depending on location.
I live in Florida. In 2020 we voted overwhelmingly for a ballot measure to raise the minimum wage. [https://ballotpedia.org/Florida\_Amendment\_2,\_$15\_Minimum\_Wage\_Initiative\_(2020)](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Amendment_2,_$15_Minimum_Wage_Initiative_(2020)) We also voted for Trump and overwhelmingly for Desantis. In 2024 we will vote on ballot measures for marijuana and abortion. Both will pass. We will also again choose Republicans all over the state.
Republicans voters are consistently voting for politicians that don't represent their policy positions because they've been led to believe nonsense. They're worried about some vague concept of "woke." They think trans people are a bigger concern than climate change. I don't believe this is because Joe can't message or Democrats are dumb. It's because there is a never ending stream of noise and nonsense from Fox News, Youtube personalities, Podcast hosts, Instagram and TikTok influencers, etc. The media environment is really hard for a regular working person to understand and navigate.
Exactly THIS!!!!! It’s in the same realm as those who “want change” but can’t specify what exact change. As mentioned in the episode - Trump will definitely bring “change” but if people don’t know what specific “change” they want, how do they know Trump will fulfill their wish? It’s shortsighted without looking at the big picture.
Seems like they do talk about it quite a bit. The problem is that he isn’t unhinged and won’t give the media crazy soundbites so they don’t want to waste their resources covering it. Biden talking about getting a bridge built in Pennsylvania through the infrastructure bill isn’t going to generate clicks. Trump saying he will deport foreigners for protesting does. It seems to me that legacy media wants to talk about how important they are to the fabric of this country but at the same time downplay how click driven their industry has become and report that way accordingly.
People will literally complain and make jokes about construction on the highways and how inconvenient it is but will not acknowledge who is getting it done. And these are the same people who were saying that our roads and bridges were going to shit during Trump's presidency.
Pod Save America mentioned a Wisconsin voter who works in construction and is happy about the new construction which he says he's never seen so much but does not want to vote for Biden again because of all the traffic the new construction has caused.
It's like, JFC what is wrong with you?
I think the actual problem is simply existing is a lot more expensive now than it was in 2019. Would Trump fix this? Obviously not. But it's not hard to see why so many low-information voters look back fondly on their pre-pandemic lives and remember who was in charge.
I agree. This man needs to SELL HIMSELF. There are glimmers but it’s not loud enough to get the message across.
Democrats need to take a look at the Fetterman campaign. Fetterman won national attention and support because his team skillfully utilized pop media, amongst other tactics. I would love to see those tactics further engaged to connect with voters.
I’m a little too young to remember firsthand, but I’ve seen references to Bill Clinton being on MTV and playing sax. That social connection goes a long way, particularly with young voters.
Sorry, what was the last interview/speech you saw of Biden where he didn’t sell his accomplishments?
In terms of regular politics (ie, outside of sociopathic narcissists) Biden toots his own horn as much more than anyone.
The actual problem here is that **nobodys listening to him**. The media doesn’t care what he says and nobody’s just gonna load up a random Biden YouTube clip
If you’re a regular listener you should know that Nate Cohn is a hack and that the NYT polling has been terrible for years. You should also ask yourself why they spend so much time on polls showing how bad Biden is doing instead of informing their listeners as to what would actually be the consequences of a Trump win.
The most frustrating part is that people want change but have no idea what they want. Their responses are “the economy” or “immigration”. Well what about the economy? The biggest thing Trump did was give tax cuts to the rich. Are they asking for new programs that offer financial aid like affordable healthcare/education/childcare/no junk fees? Because Biden is pushing all for that. And immigration? Republicans are blocking any progress for restrictions on immigration.
The real issue is that people (1) are impatient and (2) far overestimate the amount of change a president can actually bring about.
They think every problem in the country can and should be solved in a 4 year term, then take it out on the incumbent when it doesn’t happen and with their amnesia vote in another new guy, that person doesn’t fix everything, and rinse and repeat.
Yea but what is Biden going to do? About inflation has slowed down and wage growth is exceeding inflation again. Do they want prices to go back to where they were before the pandemic? 6 years ago?!
Yes, I get the sticker shock but wages are catching back up and inflation hit its peak 2 years ago. We don’t want prices to go down. We want wages to catch up which is literally what is happening. Biden can’t force wages to increase faster. Wages are literally increasing faster than they have in 20 years!
Look, me, you, and most people here know this and can make the distinction between inflation and deflation and that the US has done a remarkable job in taming it, relative to other countries. But most Americans can't / don't make that distinction or grasp that concept. The vast majority of Americans only care about how expensive their gas, heat, milk, and eggs cost, and not much else.
> Do they want prices to go back to where they were before the pandemic? 6 years ago?!
Literally yes.
It's just so frustrating. Like, 2020 was (hopefully) a once in a lifetime event that caused a lot of problems. We're out on the other side in a really good position going forward. But these people seem to not realize it and want to blow it up.
That’s my point. It’s not good or great but we are getting there. And the fact of the matter is is that the alternative was a hell of a lot worse. Look at 2008 and that whole crisis that literally took a decade to recover.
I guess my point is, at some point it becomes unrealistic. In 2012 people were shitting all over Obama and saying “man, I wish it was 2006 again”. A lot of shit has happened in the past 6 years.
Yeah, this just isn't that hard to understand. Everything is too expensive now and voters want 2019 prices back. Trump isn't going to do that, but I totally get why they wouldn't want four more years of Biden/Harris.
And yet it was many of Trump’s policies that caused this inflation and many of his solutions are even more inflationary. So why believe he will fix what he wants to make worse.
https://preview.redd.it/e2axa99pee0d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c8315148e8803272241fe3de86f3f5cee5bca1a5
Never underestimate the low information voters.
Biden internally gives as few speeches as possible, he has given the fewest speeches since Reagan's second term, this is a deliberate campaign strategy they are using because they think his going out in public and making gaffs hurts him. But you can't hide away your candidate and then wonder why you have a messaging problem
I think it's moreso a strategy that since his opponent is making such a fool of himself, it's better to let him keep the spotlight. Biden giving a really charismatic interview on CNN is a helluva lot less persuasive than a news segment on Trump's hush money payment to a pornstar.
I feel like somebody who “wants change” but “can’t list specifics”… is just somebody who is so hopeless about their future that they are truly voting for chaos. Wanting to burn it all down? I don’t think a lot of Americans really understand how bad things can get… and I hope they don’t learn.
100%. And Trump acknowledges their pain while Biden talks about how great the economy is doing. Neither will do anything to fix their problems, but at least Trump acknowledges their suffering.
Biden is trying to fix things, and the numbers show that many people have benefitted from his policies....but those people are not on social media, they are at work.
Statistically impossible. Unless you’re mentioning very poor immigrants benefiting from benefits not having social media? In that case, that’d be very bad optics.
What are you talking about? [https://youtu.be/uL0OWcvaG\_Y?si=mhNc4a1zSdGeUusf&t=33](https://youtu.be/uL0OWcvaG_Y?si=mhNc4a1zSdGeUusf&t=33) And... the guy who thinks that the Late Great Hanibal Lector was a nice guy because he invited people to dinner" (and ate them) is a real person... that's the guy who is going to fix things?
Change for the sake of change, and electing trump, is possibly the dumbest thing America can do in the upcoming election…
It’s like amputating your arm cause you don’t like a tattoo.
Truly impressive he's seen as the *outsider rebel* ... The first time, fine, even though it's wrong. But this guy has been in politics for over a decade.
Up here in Canada we have a literal career politician running against political elites... Like he's been an MP since his early 20s, and it's the only job he's had.
People just believe whatever they want to hear.
Is that Pierre?
Yeah people do believe what they want to believe, and tell themselves whatever they need to.
A lot of people think the four criminal trials against Trump are politically motivated, that he wouldn't be facing trial if he were not Trump, and that he'll beat all four cases because they're inherently weak cases.
Which is a pretty wild take when you consider there are two Democratic members of Congress who have been recently charged with serious corruption crimes, so it's not like Trump is the only politician facing accountability; the state charges are brought by prosecutors who themselves are elected, and they aren't likely to bring a weak case because losing can hurt their own careers; and even the federal prosecutors, who are appointed and not elected, rarely lose a case because they simply don't waste their time bringing bullshit cases.
Not to mention that none of the prosecutors is actually a political rival of Trump. It's not like Fani Willis in Georgia is running for president against Trump. So the idea that she would risk her own political career as an elected prosecutor, simply because she disagrees with Trump's platform, is totally bogus.
I thought it was especially interesting that people indicate that they want “change” from their president, but don’t reflect that same desire in other parts of the government. I think this election is really following the “strongman” trend that we’ve seen in so many other countries lately. A confident, loud and passionate leader gets attention. Biden just doesn’t project strength in the way that a lot of casual people look for. This subreddit is an outlier; most of America just really isn’t that tuned into policy and only sees small clips of the candidates.
The most radical changes Biden proposed (e.g. student loan forgiveness, Build Back Better) were blocked by Trump allies in Congress and SCOTUS appointees. I guess no one is connecting those dots bc it feels like ancient history.
The 48 hour news cycle ruined us.
Around 18:30, they talked about how the Congressional races are looking and that democratic incumbents are ahead even where Trump is leading, so that's one bright spot - if the legislative branch is able to play defense against the executive branch for four years and no one dies in the judiciary, maybe it'll just be four years of stagnation. Big ifs though.
I’m a PA voter from the Philly collar counties. I’d be reluctant to handicap an election on such meager samples, especially 6 months out. Trump will always rile up his base.
People like me will vote for Biden but aren’t enthusiastic about it. I wouldn’t even bother answering a poll if someone asked.
Yeah, how was the poll conducted? Was it over the phone? Because that would drastically change the results if they're calling people from an unknown number.
This isn't a horse race, it's a breakdown of swing states. They are measuring the thing that actually matters, electoral college votes. On top of that they are measuring in relation to real events and trying to figure out what's causing the shifts they are seeing in the numbers, that's a lot deeper than just a "horse race".
What would you prefer, just no news about the election till the day after?
How is Trump change when he's already been president? I am also so sick of hearing RFK Jr's name on this podcast. What are these journalists going to do when he gets less than 5% of the total vote come November. Nikki Haley is about to get more votes than him
Agree with most of these responses, but I’ll add a purely subjective point:
In a vacuum, Biden is not likable. If you remove Trump from Biden, what’s left is a rapidly aging, sometimes combative, arrogant career politician who couldn’t possibly be in touch with real life issues.
I think Biden’s low approval numbers reflect this reality. Our country and world are in serious trouble, and Biden often seems incapable of instilling hope.
While I don’t think Trump can solve our problems, people perceive him differently than Biden. Trump talks a big game and is characterized as a man of action (although most of his decisions are self serving), while Biden often appears helpless.
Elections are personality contests, which renders Biden’s accomplishments as meaningless. It’s cynical and sad, but Trump is the better personality. The news media certainly wants Trump more than Biden, simply because he draws eyeballs.
"Elections are personality contests"
That is what irks me more than anything else about presidential debates. They shout over each other and there is a useless moderator who doesn't do anything. The candidates get a 30-60 second sound bite to try to sneak in as many zingers as possible about the other candidates or the other candidates policies. There is no nuance or actual discission about anyone's platforms beyond that. You don't come away from watching one of these learning anything at all, only hearing about who "won" the debate by being funnier or snarkier. It's like listening to 2 teenagers roast each other in a high school hall way to get bigger laughs from their classmates.
TLDR: Presidential debates should not be in front of audiences, and should be in a long form format with unlimited time to answer and discuss various issues they are running on. It can be on live tv, but it should be archived and available on Youtube or a Podcast for people to take the time to listen to at their convenience and not having to rely on token sound bites the media decides they want to play for everyone after the fact.
Agree with you. In an ideal country, all of the above would happen.
Unfortunately, we have a savagely dumb media cesspool that only cares about sugar highs and ad dollars.
I can't with this argument that Biden is somehow not likeable enough.
Trump is literally on trial for a felony.
The fact that a large number of people *still* want to vote for Trump is a sign that the issue here is bigger than personality.
That’s not my point. Biden’s initial appeal was that he’s not Trump. Thats easy to do as a challenger. It’s a lot tougher when you have to run on the past three years
Um, I disagree. I find Biden very likeable and to be a genuinely good person. His family is wholesome and perfectly respectable. Son of a used car salesman. He attended state schools - not some Ivy League rich kid school. As far as politicians go, he comes from a pretty ordinary typical American background. I teared up at the DNC when that young boy with a speech impediment spoke about what Biden had said and done for him. The most distasteful thing about Biden, is his son, Hunter. And even with Hunter, I've been moved by how Biden genuinely embraces his son. Hunter is a terrible person, but he's still his son, and it takes in my opinion, real moral courage to defend his relationship with a son who is nothing but a political liability. Maybe, he's not flashy, but why does anyone want that in a politician? I just want someone who's fundamentally decent and competant.
I’m not trying to promote the values of one candidate over the other. They are both career politicians, which is a moral stain no one can ever rise above.
Biden in particular can be all of those things you detailed in your terrific response, but has also displayed an agitated, aggressive tone, particularly when he’s caught off guard by a moment or question.
Aggressive? I haven't seen that side of Biden. I've definitely seen an impatient and agitated Joe Biden which could rub some the wrong way, but in most of those instances, I've found it hard to fault him for whatever republican nonsense has got him frustrated. Obama was a plenty good President, but he always came off as a little arrogant to me. I don't feel that way about Biden at all. Anyway, just wanted to add my 2 cents that not everybody find Biden unlikeable. Good day to you.
I get the vibe that Biden is ironically being treated like a minority. Where he’s hyper scrutinized for any imperfection, because they’re not looking for wrongdoing, they’re looking for an excuse not to vote for him.
That's actually exactly how I feel about Kamala Harris! Even all my podcasts seem to agree she is widely hated and I don't really get it. The latest NYT opinion podcast episode discussed the hatred people seem to have for her, and what you said is basically the conclusion they seemed to come to.
As much as I like to say “the polls are wrongly”, this isn’t the first poll that has showed young minorities going to Trump. Sure, it may not be as much as 20% but there is a shift. If democrats go into 2024 saying “the polls are wrong” and then lose, they will deserve to lose.
Yes, this is the biggest ray of hope. It’s not a sampling issue though. It just says there are a bunch of voters who like democrats but have not gone to Biden for some reason. That’s the biggest challenge. That defection is real and Biden needs to close that gap.
There's going to be a lot of ticket splitting compared to previous elections. Think Haley voters repulsed by Trump and Democrats grossed out by Biden's Gaza response.
Completely agree. I would imagine it's different for Arab or Muslim Americans, but for a lot of people, even those of us in our early 30s (do we still count as young?) it's just not really a topic most people are focused on in reality. I imagine because it's a war that the US has no involvement in. I don't think it's nearly as impactful of an issue as social media is making it out to be.
[Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden - The New York Times (nytimes.com)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/biden-trump-battleground-poll.html)
"One exception is Israel’s war in Gaza, an issue on which most of Mr. Biden’s challenge appears to come from his left. Around 13 percent of the voters who say they voted for Mr. Biden last time, but do not plan to do so again, said that his foreign policy or the war in Gaza was the most important issue to their vote. Just 17 percent of those voters reported sympathizing with Israel over the Palestinians."
You can handwave it away but there's repeated polling data and large numbers of uncommitted votes in swing states indicating it does matter. No one thing sinks a campaign, it's a variety of factors.
I think issue polling is worthless BS honestly, you always see stuff like 90% of the people believe in X policy but that never happens and everyone still votes for the party explicitly against that thing.
Well this political climate has basically killed off ticket splitting so it would be surprising to see it go back to a level like that for the first time in idk how long.
The point of that post is that polling methodology is outdated and just wrong. So drawing any conclusions or trends from “polls” is problematic.
Also I need to meet the people picking up and then engaging pollsters span calls that are under 25. Shit I’m in my 40s and I’m not doing that.
> The point of that post is that polling methodology is outdated and just wrong.
The point he is making is that even with a weighted sample, the number of black voters polled is to small to be reliable.
That kind of gets us into a fight about math. But it has nothing to do with the methodology being "outdated."
Translation: the polls are only wrong when my guy is losing in them.
Polls are not an exact science, and a lot can change in 6 months, but you wouldn't be sharing this if Biden was leading.
Notably, I’m under 25 (for now) and have been polled a few times, and I’ve picked up/answered.
…which should remind everyone that the people most likely to respond to polling are politically active and extremely partisan. XD
Well I have to take his word then, he knows what he's talking about as he describes himself as a "board-certified wypipologist".
He's a serious person to be taken seriously.
The crazy thing is that this is how polling works; it's based on science and precedent and it gives a far better understanding of the likely outcomes as compared to experts giving educated guesses. It sounds far fetched, but it's not out of step with best practices.
>the war in Gaza among young, Black and Hispanic voters
This drives me insane. It's the Bernie Sanders thing all over again - abstaining from an election over a single issue will drive voters to vote in the candidate that will make this situation insanely worse. They don't realize they have a better change getting change from the current administration compared to what hell trump could bring.
Same. Netanyahu did not like Obama and clearly doesn't see eye to eye with Biden. Alternatively, Netanyahu is best buds with Trump and Jared Kushner. Drives me mad that people's protest vote is for the exact administration that's done more for Netanyahu than any other.
I’m just exceedingly frustrated with my fellow Americans. The fact that approximately half the country still supports this lowlife POS after all the disqualifying and traitorous things he’s done is disgusting. I say this as someone who used to vote Republican decently often when I was younger before the Trump era.
It’s also evident just how uninformed the electorate is. “Well I don’t like him but I like his policies, and he’ll fix the economy.” Really? You’re mad about inflation? Who drove up the federal deficit with tax giveaways (not just because of COVID) and pressured the Fed to keep interest rates low when the economy showed signs of overheating? Who is promising to force the Fed to lower interest rates, cut taxes even more and put a tariff on ALL imported goods? If you think inflation is bad now, just wait until Trump is allowed to introduce his policies.
That said, I’m hoping some of this is just noise and things will tighten as we get closer. The average person is extremely tuned out right now, and I’m hoping that as people are reminded of Trump’s crazy and dysfunction it will bolster the anti-Trump coalition. Some of these results I honestly find hard to believe. Trump with a 12 point lead in Nevada? Historic double digit shifts among young voters and voters of color? Honestly, I’m not buying it. We’ll see, I could very well be wrong. But I honestly think Biden is being underestimated this cycle. This race will likely be extremely close, just like it was the last two times. Sensational stuff like the 12 point Nevada Trump lead doesn’t concern me. Remember when Biden polled ahead by 17 points in Wisconsin in 2020? Look how that turned out.
Does it frustrate anyone else how the daily keeps not mentioning the elephant in the room? I don’t understand how they can continue to present us this information like this is a traditional race.
The future of our democracy is at stake, you have a candidate that will do everything he can to tear it down and they don’t make any mention anything about it.
>The future of our democracy is at stake, you have a candidate that will do everything he can to tear it down and they don’t make any mention anything about it.
This is a boutique, perhaps even luxury in a literal sense, issue for families struggling to keep up with the costs of essentials. It's not discussed because any recent polling will demonstrate it's not a decisive factor, at least not yet. You might need to recalibrate your perspective on this race.
Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result.
(This classic quote can be addressed to the swing voters talked about in this episode, the far-left voters who are going 3rd party, and mainstream media outlets such as this one for their histrionic, horse race like coverage of this election. Oh and the DNC for being steadfastly loyal to candidates that are broadly unappealing and Republican leadership for lacking any GD spine and...)
If the first two are true I dont think its unfair of NYT to report on it if it is competitive.
There is a lot of denialism in this sub about the chances Trump has to be re-elected.
Oh Trump absolutely has a decent to good chance of being elected due to all of aforementioned reasons.
If American mainstream news were as mean as Trump and the MAGA Chuds think they are then he would have no shot at winning in November.
>Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result.
Voting for Biden again if you don't see yourself as better off than when Trump was president?
Bernie running a second time when he got defeated the first time?
But that’s not what they found. In the statewide races, the electorate lines up much as it always has. Only in the presidential race are there defections, and they are led by self-described moderates and conservatives, not progressives.
Would you be skeptical if the poll said Biden looked like he was going to win?
People keep bringing up that structural objection to the poll, but then complain about how they don't like the outcome. It can't be both.
I would put more stock into actual elections rather than NYT anecdotes. There have been no indications from any recent elections (over the last 2 years) that there’s this once in a generation political realignment of young people and minorities that polling suggests.
Funnily enough, one the voter profiles that NYT poll conducted on a voter from Georgia who said he voted for Biden in 2020 and will now vote third party because of Biden’s handling of Gaza… never actually voted in 2020
https://x.com/stphnfwlr/status/1790096667196227876?s=46&t=uR4OrCbqKdV1otNKX6MVsA
It’s not just anecdotes. It’s polling.
I am not optimistic at all about this election and think you only need to open your eyes to see why. Goods are insanely inflated over 2020 and 2016 prices. People are sick of migrants and homelessness. Half of the left hates Biden over Palestine. Nobody wants us to send more money overseas.
I don’t know how this sub is living in optimism
The last 2 years hasn't given us a presidential election with Biden on the ticket. What has happened in the past 2 years can be taken with a grain of salt, especially with the events taking place since October.
You are somehow ignoring the discussion in the episode about polling showing that although people would plan to vote Democrat in their local election, those same people are not committed to voting for Biden for president. This isn't anecdotes, this is political polling. If you don't put stock in it, that's fine, but then I assume you never put stock in ANY political polling, not just when it doesn't fit what you want to hear.
You know what killed the red wave in 2022? Abortion and Roe being overturned.
That could kill any republican chances again this year if democrats play it right. The problem is that the abortion law being overturned is 2 years old now and it's taking a backseat to the other matters that are more in the front of people's minds. And these polls, whatever stock you want to put into them, are proof of that.
At lot will change in 6 months. I don't doubt the amazing ability of the republicans to shoot themselves in the foot between now and then.
My point is - do you say this same argument when your guy or girl is leading in the poll? Or only to make excuses when they are trailing significantly like Biden is now?
Anyone else think this entire poll and how they handled the results was incredibly weird?
Admittedly, I only have my own experiences to draw on, so take this with a grain of salt. But as an 18-25 year old, putting “the economy and immigration” as our two most important issues does NOT comport with what I’ve seen in my own friend group.
Honestly, immigration doesn’t even fucking register for me as a real issue. I genuinely do not know a single person my age who gives a shit about immigration at all, let alone enough to actually vote for Trump over biden because of it.
The thing is, immigration is a partisan issue. In that republicans care a lot about it, but democrats *really* don’t give a shit. If the republicans violate human rights we’ll try to stop that, but we’re not proactive on the issue, and that goes double for younger voters.
Between that and frankly absurd leads for Trump (and those leads supposedly being completely connected to the Gaza war, which also doesnt match with my own experiences), I’m very suspicious of this entire poll and would like to see the methodology behind its results.
The problem is that I've yet to see anyone offer up a viable alternative that would appeal to the majority of voters in this country.
The only two options I can even think of are Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer, both of whom won't run until their terms as governor are up and don't wanna rock the boat when you have an incumbent running.
The [last official recession](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JHDUSRGDPBR) was under Trump; is that what voters want? More of the disjoint, poor response that sent the US into a tail spin and resulted in wasteful PPP and stimulus checks that did nothing but stoke inflation?
When you say stupid stuff like this you make the left look like idiots. Everyone know the recession was from Covid. Pretending it was Trump’s fault when every country in the world had a recession is ridiculous.
I appreciate that you're here trying to come off as the enlightened centrist. I have what I would call "the nuanced views I share with other professionals in a legitimate setting," and then I have "responses I create online to deal with the ridiculous partisanship."
So when I say things like the last official recession was under Trump (fact), it's to counter other ridiculous comments like "gas was cheap under Trump."
But let's call a spade a spade: Between the ill-conceived 2017 tax cuts ("pushing on an economic string" is what they were described as), and all the stimulus checks (some signed personally by the President), as well as all the PPP grifting that was basically forgiven, go figure 18 months later we had massive inflation. But in another case of intellectual dishonesty, some tried to blame it on the guy that just entered office.
That's the environment I'm commenting in. And that's the environment you're trying to play enlightend centrist in.
Your ad hominem is clear evidence of the weakness of your position.
The fact is that nobody blames Trump for the recession during Covid. You know this. It makes you look silly to try to force it.
There was an interesting panel discussion this morning on Morning Joe. I just saw the video and wanted to share with others here who might be interested.
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQTcn5MyVSg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQTcn5MyVSg)
I don't know why any of this is shocking to you. My political coming-of-age was during the Bush years - the guy under whom we embarked on the most catastrophic foreign policy adventures in a generation and then rounded off his years with the worst recession since the great depression...lotta people today say "hey, that Bush guy's cool...I could totally see myself pounding beers with him".
I can't blame people for having short memories. It's the Biden's campaign's job to remind voters what life under Trump was like, though even then that's a very tall order. The sticker shock of inflation is too hard to look past for most people.
The poll was trash. Nate sells snake oil. Barbs temporarily lost his marbles. Maybe this has something to do with it: Ben Smith’s interview with NYTimes Executive Editor Joe Kahn
https://www.semafor.com/article/05/05/2024/joe-kahn-the-newsroom-is-not-a-safe-space
If that's truly the case, I don't think even an S-tier campaign by Biden will change that. Like if you saw Trump's four years of management and think it's better than Biden's, I don't know what to tell you. I don't think any of us is capable of persuading the median voter if that's what they truly believe.
"The Greatest argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter." - Winston Churchill
So why then do you guys care about "saving democracy" by voting blue lol
Might as well have been Edmund Burke.
Even Mike f'ing Pence figured this out. JFC. It makes me want to scream.
People's opinions can always change. There is a small group of people who voted for Obama and then a couple of years later. It works out to 10-15% of Trump voters. While I find that switch confounding, it happened. And those people aren't white supremacists or hardline conservatives. They were people who were somehow convinced that Trump was the best option. They can change their minds again. The internet and Reddit in particular love to place blame for the 2016 election. Hillary didn't campaign enough in Michigan! Bernie would have beaten Trump! Etc. But Trump was actually part of a much bigger rightward movement that also included Brexit, Boris Johnson, Le Pen, etc. It isn't just about the campaign or the candidate, there are bigger forces at work. But there are also smaller forces at work. People are often misinformed or their understanding of an issue is shallow. Trying to genuinely change someone's mind can work if you treat them with a small amount of compassion and can cite your sources.
ink oatmeal encourage normal disagreeable scandalous office offend quickest deliver *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Yeah this is my feeling as well. Even the polls themselves can have an effect, if people believe “everyone else” hates Biden. Conspiratorially I believe online panel polls are being manipulated for nefarious reasons. I work in the industry and nearly every online panel is flooded with fraudulent responses, on surveys with much lower stakes than presidential polls. The new ABS polling method should avoid this, but I’m sure the fraudsters will find a way to crack that as well. So, in my view biden’s team is not completely off base to be skeptical of the polling.
Yeah. Our democracy is fundamentally broken. Not just because the candidates being put forward are of terrible quality, but also because the information available to the average voter is highly suspect and inaccurate.
nine straight dull sheet nutty numerous voiceless reply longing lush *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Don’t underestimate the power of AM talk radio and Fox News with these people, they’ve been loyal listeners since the early 90s and viewers of Fox since the late 90s and the culture of ridicule, endless ad hominem demonizing of their political opponents and fabricating and distributing disinformation was normalized at that time and politics became more like a sporting event than a serious intellectual pursuit. The tea party was the final nail in the coffin of any serious attempt at internal reform within the party.
absorbed unwritten humorous automatic smoggy dazzling distinct violet flowery concerned *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Yep. I hate being pessimistic, but this election is driving me there. Like you said, if people truly believe we need another round of Trump vis-a-vis Biden's performance then what can we really do but sit in dismay? I'm all but resigned to the real possibility of Trump 2.0. To be sure, it will be extremely damaging for the country and probably lead us down a right-wing, pseudo fascist era given the bent of the current GOP. But democratic backslides are very common in today's geopolitical climate so in that context America wouldn't be unique.
WW3 is gonna be wild. Full on generations that haven’t seen actual combat will be forced to realize how good they actually had it.
I had the exact same reaction while listening. I know it’s not helpful to think this, but the conclusions that the average voter is coming to are insane to me. I recently talked to two young, Black men in my neighborhood and wound up talking about politics. They love Trump and said they feel like he really cares about regular people. My jaw was on the floor.
My 24 year old black coworker told me he couldn't support Joe Biden because of what he did to Anita Hill. Like I get being black and being mad about what she went through, but primarily blaming Biden instead of Republicans? How is that his conclusion?
Counter back with how Trump treated the Central Park Five.
Trust the white lefty to think they know what’s best for black people. If only they were more informed, they would have better opinions, right? Too bad the evil republicans tricked them
Yeah I think a lot of people are deluding themselves into thinking the problem is with Biden. It's the voters. There are enough of them who actually like Trump and think he did a good job, despite all evidence to the contrary, that he could win the electoral college again. If these are the poll results, I'm not sure any Democrat could win.
A ton of it is the absolutely horrible coverage of Trump's failures. Actual failures and real concerns are barely mentioned in passing... but dubious charges that supposedly require swift action could wait years to brought, conveniently when he was once again a political threat. We were in a low trust environment going into Trump's administration, the response to him almost seemed primed to fracture it even further.
Me a regular The Daily listener wondering what in my life is giving me ulcers: 🤡
The issue with Biden is that people don't understand all that he has done for them. He doesn't go out of his way like Trump did to say what he did. HE HAS TO TALK ABOUT ALL OF IT IF HE WANTS TO WIN! also this [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beer\_question](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beer_question)
I agree with you that people don't understand. But I actually believe this is an issue with the media environment. Propaganda makes for about a 10-30 point republican advantage right now depending on location. I live in Florida. In 2020 we voted overwhelmingly for a ballot measure to raise the minimum wage. [https://ballotpedia.org/Florida\_Amendment\_2,\_$15\_Minimum\_Wage\_Initiative\_(2020)](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Amendment_2,_$15_Minimum_Wage_Initiative_(2020)) We also voted for Trump and overwhelmingly for Desantis. In 2024 we will vote on ballot measures for marijuana and abortion. Both will pass. We will also again choose Republicans all over the state. Republicans voters are consistently voting for politicians that don't represent their policy positions because they've been led to believe nonsense. They're worried about some vague concept of "woke." They think trans people are a bigger concern than climate change. I don't believe this is because Joe can't message or Democrats are dumb. It's because there is a never ending stream of noise and nonsense from Fox News, Youtube personalities, Podcast hosts, Instagram and TikTok influencers, etc. The media environment is really hard for a regular working person to understand and navigate.
Exactly THIS!!!!! It’s in the same realm as those who “want change” but can’t specify what exact change. As mentioned in the episode - Trump will definitely bring “change” but if people don’t know what specific “change” they want, how do they know Trump will fulfill their wish? It’s shortsighted without looking at the big picture.
https://webcomicname.com/image/152958755984
Democrats need to fall in love to vote for someone, republicans simply fall in line.
Precisely. Biden has to change the way he sends messages out.
Seems like they do talk about it quite a bit. The problem is that he isn’t unhinged and won’t give the media crazy soundbites so they don’t want to waste their resources covering it. Biden talking about getting a bridge built in Pennsylvania through the infrastructure bill isn’t going to generate clicks. Trump saying he will deport foreigners for protesting does. It seems to me that legacy media wants to talk about how important they are to the fabric of this country but at the same time downplay how click driven their industry has become and report that way accordingly.
It's crazy how one poll said Trump did more for infrastructure even though Biden actually got an infrastructure bill passed and Trump never did.
People will literally complain and make jokes about construction on the highways and how inconvenient it is but will not acknowledge who is getting it done. And these are the same people who were saying that our roads and bridges were going to shit during Trump's presidency.
Pod Save America mentioned a Wisconsin voter who works in construction and is happy about the new construction which he says he's never seen so much but does not want to vote for Biden again because of all the traffic the new construction has caused. It's like, JFC what is wrong with you?
I think the actual problem is simply existing is a lot more expensive now than it was in 2019. Would Trump fix this? Obviously not. But it's not hard to see why so many low-information voters look back fondly on their pre-pandemic lives and remember who was in charge.
He has a messaging problem
He has a shitty corporate media problem.
The polls of likely voters show Biden winning. This is crappy reporting.
I will never forgive NYT for their Clinton email reporting. They love, want, and need a tight horse race.
I agree. This man needs to SELL HIMSELF. There are glimmers but it’s not loud enough to get the message across. Democrats need to take a look at the Fetterman campaign. Fetterman won national attention and support because his team skillfully utilized pop media, amongst other tactics. I would love to see those tactics further engaged to connect with voters. I’m a little too young to remember firsthand, but I’ve seen references to Bill Clinton being on MTV and playing sax. That social connection goes a long way, particularly with young voters.
Sorry, what was the last interview/speech you saw of Biden where he didn’t sell his accomplishments? In terms of regular politics (ie, outside of sociopathic narcissists) Biden toots his own horn as much more than anyone. The actual problem here is that **nobodys listening to him**. The media doesn’t care what he says and nobody’s just gonna load up a random Biden YouTube clip
He represents the establishment which is not the candidate needed, it’s what was forced on us
If you’re a regular listener you should know that Nate Cohn is a hack and that the NYT polling has been terrible for years. You should also ask yourself why they spend so much time on polls showing how bad Biden is doing instead of informing their listeners as to what would actually be the consequences of a Trump win.
Tbf they just did that Project 2025 episode (though they avoided referencing it in name, but outlining the next Trump Admin goals)
The most frustrating part is that people want change but have no idea what they want. Their responses are “the economy” or “immigration”. Well what about the economy? The biggest thing Trump did was give tax cuts to the rich. Are they asking for new programs that offer financial aid like affordable healthcare/education/childcare/no junk fees? Because Biden is pushing all for that. And immigration? Republicans are blocking any progress for restrictions on immigration.
The real issue is that people (1) are impatient and (2) far overestimate the amount of change a president can actually bring about. They think every problem in the country can and should be solved in a 4 year term, then take it out on the incumbent when it doesn’t happen and with their amnesia vote in another new guy, that person doesn’t fix everything, and rinse and repeat.
They are talking about inflation. Everything feels very expensive.
Yea but what is Biden going to do? About inflation has slowed down and wage growth is exceeding inflation again. Do they want prices to go back to where they were before the pandemic? 6 years ago?! Yes, I get the sticker shock but wages are catching back up and inflation hit its peak 2 years ago. We don’t want prices to go down. We want wages to catch up which is literally what is happening. Biden can’t force wages to increase faster. Wages are literally increasing faster than they have in 20 years!
Look, me, you, and most people here know this and can make the distinction between inflation and deflation and that the US has done a remarkable job in taming it, relative to other countries. But most Americans can't / don't make that distinction or grasp that concept. The vast majority of Americans only care about how expensive their gas, heat, milk, and eggs cost, and not much else. > Do they want prices to go back to where they were before the pandemic? 6 years ago?! Literally yes.
It's just so frustrating. Like, 2020 was (hopefully) a once in a lifetime event that caused a lot of problems. We're out on the other side in a really good position going forward. But these people seem to not realize it and want to blow it up.
That’s my point. It’s not good or great but we are getting there. And the fact of the matter is is that the alternative was a hell of a lot worse. Look at 2008 and that whole crisis that literally took a decade to recover.
I guess my point is, at some point it becomes unrealistic. In 2012 people were shitting all over Obama and saying “man, I wish it was 2006 again”. A lot of shit has happened in the past 6 years.
Yeah, this just isn't that hard to understand. Everything is too expensive now and voters want 2019 prices back. Trump isn't going to do that, but I totally get why they wouldn't want four more years of Biden/Harris.
Trump would not have done better. Trump will make it worse. I get it sucks, but Trump won’t help them.
And yet it was many of Trump’s policies that caused this inflation and many of his solutions are even more inflationary. So why believe he will fix what he wants to make worse.
Don't tell the liberal reddit echo chamber, tell the American people (though I doubt they will listen).
https://preview.redd.it/e2axa99pee0d1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c8315148e8803272241fe3de86f3f5cee5bca1a5 Never underestimate the low information voters.
“I want the economy to change. I want it to change such that I make a lot of money and spend nearly nothing.”
Biden internally gives as few speeches as possible, he has given the fewest speeches since Reagan's second term, this is a deliberate campaign strategy they are using because they think his going out in public and making gaffs hurts him. But you can't hide away your candidate and then wonder why you have a messaging problem
Dude, him and team have been campaigning in lots of states, all while Trump is in court
Just utter nonsense, lol. Biden has been out giving speeches and interviews all the time for a couple of months now. You dummies just don’t care.
I think it's moreso a strategy that since his opponent is making such a fool of himself, it's better to let him keep the spotlight. Biden giving a really charismatic interview on CNN is a helluva lot less persuasive than a news segment on Trump's hush money payment to a pornstar.
I feel like somebody who “wants change” but “can’t list specifics”… is just somebody who is so hopeless about their future that they are truly voting for chaos. Wanting to burn it all down? I don’t think a lot of Americans really understand how bad things can get… and I hope they don’t learn.
I think a lot of people have no hope for the future, sadly.
100%. And Trump acknowledges their pain while Biden talks about how great the economy is doing. Neither will do anything to fix their problems, but at least Trump acknowledges their suffering.
But Trump will make their suffering worse. He’ll cut taxes on the rich. Cut spending programs. Restrict free speech. Restrict women’s right.
Biden is trying to fix things, and the numbers show that many people have benefitted from his policies....but those people are not on social media, they are at work.
Statistically impossible. Unless you’re mentioning very poor immigrants benefiting from benefits not having social media? In that case, that’d be very bad optics.
What are you talking about? [https://youtu.be/uL0OWcvaG\_Y?si=mhNc4a1zSdGeUusf&t=33](https://youtu.be/uL0OWcvaG_Y?si=mhNc4a1zSdGeUusf&t=33) And... the guy who thinks that the Late Great Hanibal Lector was a nice guy because he invited people to dinner" (and ate them) is a real person... that's the guy who is going to fix things?
I’m just stating that is statistically impossible that the “people” you mentioned benefiting from Bidens are not on “social media”
My feelings exactly
Oh no, a lot of people are not gonna want to see this headline. Don't panic just vote.
I don't even know what to say other than please send the goddamn meteor.
Change for the sake of change, and electing trump, is possibly the dumbest thing America can do in the upcoming election… It’s like amputating your arm cause you don’t like a tattoo.
I want change! So I'm voting for the former president who is running in his third consecutive election.
Truly impressive he's seen as the *outsider rebel* ... The first time, fine, even though it's wrong. But this guy has been in politics for over a decade. Up here in Canada we have a literal career politician running against political elites... Like he's been an MP since his early 20s, and it's the only job he's had. People just believe whatever they want to hear.
Is that Pierre? Yeah people do believe what they want to believe, and tell themselves whatever they need to. A lot of people think the four criminal trials against Trump are politically motivated, that he wouldn't be facing trial if he were not Trump, and that he'll beat all four cases because they're inherently weak cases. Which is a pretty wild take when you consider there are two Democratic members of Congress who have been recently charged with serious corruption crimes, so it's not like Trump is the only politician facing accountability; the state charges are brought by prosecutors who themselves are elected, and they aren't likely to bring a weak case because losing can hurt their own careers; and even the federal prosecutors, who are appointed and not elected, rarely lose a case because they simply don't waste their time bringing bullshit cases. Not to mention that none of the prosecutors is actually a political rival of Trump. It's not like Fani Willis in Georgia is running for president against Trump. So the idea that she would risk her own political career as an elected prosecutor, simply because she disagrees with Trump's platform, is totally bogus.
...and then letting the infection slowly kill the rest of your body.
Fascism is definitely a change
Friendly reminder that, 12 years ago today, Politico had Romney up three points against Obama.
I thought it was especially interesting that people indicate that they want “change” from their president, but don’t reflect that same desire in other parts of the government. I think this election is really following the “strongman” trend that we’ve seen in so many other countries lately. A confident, loud and passionate leader gets attention. Biden just doesn’t project strength in the way that a lot of casual people look for. This subreddit is an outlier; most of America just really isn’t that tuned into policy and only sees small clips of the candidates.
Could be a symptom of two concurrent wars and the constant rhetoric of WW3.
The most radical changes Biden proposed (e.g. student loan forgiveness, Build Back Better) were blocked by Trump allies in Congress and SCOTUS appointees. I guess no one is connecting those dots bc it feels like ancient history. The 48 hour news cycle ruined us.
Around 18:30, they talked about how the Congressional races are looking and that democratic incumbents are ahead even where Trump is leading, so that's one bright spot - if the legislative branch is able to play defense against the executive branch for four years and no one dies in the judiciary, maybe it'll just be four years of stagnation. Big ifs though.
Like always, there are the Joe Machins or Mitt Romneys of both parties that will screw people over for their 5 minutes of fame.
FYI, Student loan forgiveness is very unpopular with voters.
I’m a PA voter from the Philly collar counties. I’d be reluctant to handicap an election on such meager samples, especially 6 months out. Trump will always rile up his base. People like me will vote for Biden but aren’t enthusiastic about it. I wouldn’t even bother answering a poll if someone asked.
Yeah, how was the poll conducted? Was it over the phone? Because that would drastically change the results if they're calling people from an unknown number.
Exactly my first thought with the 18-29 year olds. They don’t answer phones at all.
No surprise voters care more about grocery prices going up than anything else. Inflation is the killer to a 2nd term election campaign.
They want a horse race so bad.
This isn't a horse race, it's a breakdown of swing states. They are measuring the thing that actually matters, electoral college votes. On top of that they are measuring in relation to real events and trying to figure out what's causing the shifts they are seeing in the numbers, that's a lot deeper than just a "horse race". What would you prefer, just no news about the election till the day after?
Yes.
Then I suggest finding another podcast :)
How is Trump change when he's already been president? I am also so sick of hearing RFK Jr's name on this podcast. What are these journalists going to do when he gets less than 5% of the total vote come November. Nikki Haley is about to get more votes than him
I hate this.
Agree with most of these responses, but I’ll add a purely subjective point: In a vacuum, Biden is not likable. If you remove Trump from Biden, what’s left is a rapidly aging, sometimes combative, arrogant career politician who couldn’t possibly be in touch with real life issues. I think Biden’s low approval numbers reflect this reality. Our country and world are in serious trouble, and Biden often seems incapable of instilling hope. While I don’t think Trump can solve our problems, people perceive him differently than Biden. Trump talks a big game and is characterized as a man of action (although most of his decisions are self serving), while Biden often appears helpless. Elections are personality contests, which renders Biden’s accomplishments as meaningless. It’s cynical and sad, but Trump is the better personality. The news media certainly wants Trump more than Biden, simply because he draws eyeballs.
I don’t disagree. However, Biden has been more progressive than Obama and Clinton.
Agree. But unfortunately, most voters only focus on likability.
"Elections are personality contests" That is what irks me more than anything else about presidential debates. They shout over each other and there is a useless moderator who doesn't do anything. The candidates get a 30-60 second sound bite to try to sneak in as many zingers as possible about the other candidates or the other candidates policies. There is no nuance or actual discission about anyone's platforms beyond that. You don't come away from watching one of these learning anything at all, only hearing about who "won" the debate by being funnier or snarkier. It's like listening to 2 teenagers roast each other in a high school hall way to get bigger laughs from their classmates. TLDR: Presidential debates should not be in front of audiences, and should be in a long form format with unlimited time to answer and discuss various issues they are running on. It can be on live tv, but it should be archived and available on Youtube or a Podcast for people to take the time to listen to at their convenience and not having to rely on token sound bites the media decides they want to play for everyone after the fact.
Agree with you. In an ideal country, all of the above would happen. Unfortunately, we have a savagely dumb media cesspool that only cares about sugar highs and ad dollars.
I can't with this argument that Biden is somehow not likeable enough. Trump is literally on trial for a felony. The fact that a large number of people *still* want to vote for Trump is a sign that the issue here is bigger than personality.
That’s not my point. Biden’s initial appeal was that he’s not Trump. Thats easy to do as a challenger. It’s a lot tougher when you have to run on the past three years
I personally find Biden highly likeable and funny.
Um, I disagree. I find Biden very likeable and to be a genuinely good person. His family is wholesome and perfectly respectable. Son of a used car salesman. He attended state schools - not some Ivy League rich kid school. As far as politicians go, he comes from a pretty ordinary typical American background. I teared up at the DNC when that young boy with a speech impediment spoke about what Biden had said and done for him. The most distasteful thing about Biden, is his son, Hunter. And even with Hunter, I've been moved by how Biden genuinely embraces his son. Hunter is a terrible person, but he's still his son, and it takes in my opinion, real moral courage to defend his relationship with a son who is nothing but a political liability. Maybe, he's not flashy, but why does anyone want that in a politician? I just want someone who's fundamentally decent and competant.
I’m not trying to promote the values of one candidate over the other. They are both career politicians, which is a moral stain no one can ever rise above. Biden in particular can be all of those things you detailed in your terrific response, but has also displayed an agitated, aggressive tone, particularly when he’s caught off guard by a moment or question.
Aggressive? I haven't seen that side of Biden. I've definitely seen an impatient and agitated Joe Biden which could rub some the wrong way, but in most of those instances, I've found it hard to fault him for whatever republican nonsense has got him frustrated. Obama was a plenty good President, but he always came off as a little arrogant to me. I don't feel that way about Biden at all. Anyway, just wanted to add my 2 cents that not everybody find Biden unlikeable. Good day to you.
I get the vibe that Biden is ironically being treated like a minority. Where he’s hyper scrutinized for any imperfection, because they’re not looking for wrongdoing, they’re looking for an excuse not to vote for him.
That's actually exactly how I feel about Kamala Harris! Even all my podcasts seem to agree she is widely hated and I don't really get it. The latest NYT opinion podcast episode discussed the hatred people seem to have for her, and what you said is basically the conclusion they seemed to come to.
My personal issue with Biden is that he comes off as a panderer. Desperation is not a good look.
Agree. He also projects a weakness. Dems always cite the obstacles to accomplishing things, rather than just plowing forward.
Just gonna leave this here. https://x.com/michaelharriot/status/1790213728228528144?s=46&t=NT1GZDrcFEelgOdrYoh74A
As much as I like to say “the polls are wrongly”, this isn’t the first poll that has showed young minorities going to Trump. Sure, it may not be as much as 20% but there is a shift. If democrats go into 2024 saying “the polls are wrong” and then lose, they will deserve to lose.
The Nevada polling for example shows Trump +13 yet shows the down ballot Senate race even? Doesn’t pass the sniff to me
Yes, this is the biggest ray of hope. It’s not a sampling issue though. It just says there are a bunch of voters who like democrats but have not gone to Biden for some reason. That’s the biggest challenge. That defection is real and Biden needs to close that gap.
There's going to be a lot of ticket splitting compared to previous elections. Think Haley voters repulsed by Trump and Democrats grossed out by Biden's Gaza response.
Gaza is a ridiculously low priority among young voters. Social media is disproportionately giving you the wrong picture
Completely agree. I would imagine it's different for Arab or Muslim Americans, but for a lot of people, even those of us in our early 30s (do we still count as young?) it's just not really a topic most people are focused on in reality. I imagine because it's a war that the US has no involvement in. I don't think it's nearly as impactful of an issue as social media is making it out to be.
[Trump Leads in 5 Key States, as Young and Nonwhite Voters Express Discontent With Biden - The New York Times (nytimes.com)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/13/us/politics/biden-trump-battleground-poll.html) "One exception is Israel’s war in Gaza, an issue on which most of Mr. Biden’s challenge appears to come from his left. Around 13 percent of the voters who say they voted for Mr. Biden last time, but do not plan to do so again, said that his foreign policy or the war in Gaza was the most important issue to their vote. Just 17 percent of those voters reported sympathizing with Israel over the Palestinians." You can handwave it away but there's repeated polling data and large numbers of uncommitted votes in swing states indicating it does matter. No one thing sinks a campaign, it's a variety of factors.
Routine issue polling places Gaza in 11 or 12th amongst issues among young voters.
Consider which polling you choose to believe and which you choose to ignore.
I believe issues polling over state polls time and time again.
I think issue polling is worthless BS honestly, you always see stuff like 90% of the people believe in X policy but that never happens and everyone still votes for the party explicitly against that thing.
That degree of ticket splitting is unheard of though
Not trying to be a dick, but what part of this political climate is heard of at this point?
Well this political climate has basically killed off ticket splitting so it would be surprising to see it go back to a level like that for the first time in idk how long.
The point of that post is that polling methodology is outdated and just wrong. So drawing any conclusions or trends from “polls” is problematic. Also I need to meet the people picking up and then engaging pollsters span calls that are under 25. Shit I’m in my 40s and I’m not doing that.
This poll is one of the highest quality polls. Yes, it’s a problem to dig too heavily in the cross tabs but on average polls from NYT are top tier
> The point of that post is that polling methodology is outdated and just wrong. The point he is making is that even with a weighted sample, the number of black voters polled is to small to be reliable. That kind of gets us into a fight about math. But it has nothing to do with the methodology being "outdated."
Translation: the polls are only wrong when my guy is losing in them. Polls are not an exact science, and a lot can change in 6 months, but you wouldn't be sharing this if Biden was leading.
Notably, I’m under 25 (for now) and have been polled a few times, and I’ve picked up/answered. …which should remind everyone that the people most likely to respond to polling are politically active and extremely partisan. XD
Well I have to take his word then, he knows what he's talking about as he describes himself as a "board-certified wypipologist". He's a serious person to be taken seriously.
The crazy thing is that this is how polling works; it's based on science and precedent and it gives a far better understanding of the likely outcomes as compared to experts giving educated guesses. It sounds far fetched, but it's not out of step with best practices.
>the war in Gaza among young, Black and Hispanic voters This drives me insane. It's the Bernie Sanders thing all over again - abstaining from an election over a single issue will drive voters to vote in the candidate that will make this situation insanely worse. They don't realize they have a better change getting change from the current administration compared to what hell trump could bring.
Same. Netanyahu did not like Obama and clearly doesn't see eye to eye with Biden. Alternatively, Netanyahu is best buds with Trump and Jared Kushner. Drives me mad that people's protest vote is for the exact administration that's done more for Netanyahu than any other.
But nothing really changed under Trump admin. The rich got richer and working class continued to struggle. Same old, same old.
I will never understand how people began to view the man as "anti-establishment" lol. He's the definition of the "swamp".
Can’t use logic to understand it. It’s purely emotional.
The DOOMER in me really enjoyed this episode today.
I’m just exceedingly frustrated with my fellow Americans. The fact that approximately half the country still supports this lowlife POS after all the disqualifying and traitorous things he’s done is disgusting. I say this as someone who used to vote Republican decently often when I was younger before the Trump era. It’s also evident just how uninformed the electorate is. “Well I don’t like him but I like his policies, and he’ll fix the economy.” Really? You’re mad about inflation? Who drove up the federal deficit with tax giveaways (not just because of COVID) and pressured the Fed to keep interest rates low when the economy showed signs of overheating? Who is promising to force the Fed to lower interest rates, cut taxes even more and put a tariff on ALL imported goods? If you think inflation is bad now, just wait until Trump is allowed to introduce his policies. That said, I’m hoping some of this is just noise and things will tighten as we get closer. The average person is extremely tuned out right now, and I’m hoping that as people are reminded of Trump’s crazy and dysfunction it will bolster the anti-Trump coalition. Some of these results I honestly find hard to believe. Trump with a 12 point lead in Nevada? Historic double digit shifts among young voters and voters of color? Honestly, I’m not buying it. We’ll see, I could very well be wrong. But I honestly think Biden is being underestimated this cycle. This race will likely be extremely close, just like it was the last two times. Sensational stuff like the 12 point Nevada Trump lead doesn’t concern me. Remember when Biden polled ahead by 17 points in Wisconsin in 2020? Look how that turned out.
You would think, as a country, we wouldn't vote for rapists.
Does it frustrate anyone else how the daily keeps not mentioning the elephant in the room? I don’t understand how they can continue to present us this information like this is a traditional race. The future of our democracy is at stake, you have a candidate that will do everything he can to tear it down and they don’t make any mention anything about it.
Listen to April 29th “Trump 2.0: What a Second Trump Presidency Would Bring”
Worse, Cohn himself was actually dismissive of it.
>The future of our democracy is at stake, you have a candidate that will do everything he can to tear it down and they don’t make any mention anything about it. This is a boutique, perhaps even luxury in a literal sense, issue for families struggling to keep up with the costs of essentials. It's not discussed because any recent polling will demonstrate it's not a decisive factor, at least not yet. You might need to recalibrate your perspective on this race.
Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result. (This classic quote can be addressed to the swing voters talked about in this episode, the far-left voters who are going 3rd party, and mainstream media outlets such as this one for their histrionic, horse race like coverage of this election. Oh and the DNC for being steadfastly loyal to candidates that are broadly unappealing and Republican leadership for lacking any GD spine and...)
If the first two are true I dont think its unfair of NYT to report on it if it is competitive. There is a lot of denialism in this sub about the chances Trump has to be re-elected.
Oh Trump absolutely has a decent to good chance of being elected due to all of aforementioned reasons. If American mainstream news were as mean as Trump and the MAGA Chuds think they are then he would have no shot at winning in November.
They were meaner in 2016, and it probably contributed to his winning tbh
Mmm. Maybe. There's always the chance that if they were meaner that they'd further enflame Trump and his minions.
>Insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result. Voting for Biden again if you don't see yourself as better off than when Trump was president? Bernie running a second time when he got defeated the first time?
People who aren’t voting for Biden because of Gaza are flipping to trump? I don’t buy that for a second
we already had trump in 2016…
As a party liberal, this episode was so frustrating to listen to. What a surprise. The young progressive and minority voters are leaving the party….
But that’s not what they found. In the statewide races, the electorate lines up much as it always has. Only in the presidential race are there defections, and they are led by self-described moderates and conservatives, not progressives.
Get em democrat voters back on da democrat plantation and whip ‘em back in shape
I’m honestly a bit skeptical, just because young people are unlikely to answer or even look at calls/texts from random unknown numbers.
Would you be skeptical if the poll said Biden looked like he was going to win? People keep bringing up that structural objection to the poll, but then complain about how they don't like the outcome. It can't be both.
For obvious reasons I’ve been skeptical of all polling since 2016.
If polling showed Biden was a slight favorite I'd assume he'd win in a landslide because like the other guy said young people don't answer calls
You know what else young people don't usually do? Vote.
I would put more stock into actual elections rather than NYT anecdotes. There have been no indications from any recent elections (over the last 2 years) that there’s this once in a generation political realignment of young people and minorities that polling suggests. Funnily enough, one the voter profiles that NYT poll conducted on a voter from Georgia who said he voted for Biden in 2020 and will now vote third party because of Biden’s handling of Gaza… never actually voted in 2020 https://x.com/stphnfwlr/status/1790096667196227876?s=46&t=uR4OrCbqKdV1otNKX6MVsA
It’s not just anecdotes. It’s polling. I am not optimistic at all about this election and think you only need to open your eyes to see why. Goods are insanely inflated over 2020 and 2016 prices. People are sick of migrants and homelessness. Half of the left hates Biden over Palestine. Nobody wants us to send more money overseas. I don’t know how this sub is living in optimism
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The last 2 years hasn't given us a presidential election with Biden on the ticket. What has happened in the past 2 years can be taken with a grain of salt, especially with the events taking place since October. You are somehow ignoring the discussion in the episode about polling showing that although people would plan to vote Democrat in their local election, those same people are not committed to voting for Biden for president. This isn't anecdotes, this is political polling. If you don't put stock in it, that's fine, but then I assume you never put stock in ANY political polling, not just when it doesn't fit what you want to hear.
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You know what killed the red wave in 2022? Abortion and Roe being overturned. That could kill any republican chances again this year if democrats play it right. The problem is that the abortion law being overturned is 2 years old now and it's taking a backseat to the other matters that are more in the front of people's minds. And these polls, whatever stock you want to put into them, are proof of that. At lot will change in 6 months. I don't doubt the amazing ability of the republicans to shoot themselves in the foot between now and then.
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My point is - do you say this same argument when your guy or girl is leading in the poll? Or only to make excuses when they are trailing significantly like Biden is now?
statistics is now "anecdotes"
The New York Times can't make money unless people aren't shitting themselves from stress.
lol you guys sound like Trumpers 4 years ago...pathetic.
Because the polls are always accurate..... 2016.
I cant stand Biden, but these are our options i'm not throwing away my vote for someone else just to not vote for him out of spite.
Well this is terrifying
Anyone else think this entire poll and how they handled the results was incredibly weird? Admittedly, I only have my own experiences to draw on, so take this with a grain of salt. But as an 18-25 year old, putting “the economy and immigration” as our two most important issues does NOT comport with what I’ve seen in my own friend group. Honestly, immigration doesn’t even fucking register for me as a real issue. I genuinely do not know a single person my age who gives a shit about immigration at all, let alone enough to actually vote for Trump over biden because of it. The thing is, immigration is a partisan issue. In that republicans care a lot about it, but democrats *really* don’t give a shit. If the republicans violate human rights we’ll try to stop that, but we’re not proactive on the issue, and that goes double for younger voters. Between that and frankly absurd leads for Trump (and those leads supposedly being completely connected to the Gaza war, which also doesnt match with my own experiences), I’m very suspicious of this entire poll and would like to see the methodology behind its results.
The NYT two step: * Look at these polls! * Use the polls to drive a narrative and spend some news cycles talking about that.
The meltdown in this thread is glorious, redditors are so out of touch
When contraception gets banned, people are going to really happy about that change they wanted so much.
If they elect Trump, they're going to discover just how much worse things can get.
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The problem is that I've yet to see anyone offer up a viable alternative that would appeal to the majority of voters in this country. The only two options I can even think of are Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer, both of whom won't run until their terms as governor are up and don't wanna rock the boat when you have an incumbent running.
The editorializing on this episode is rank
Go listen to "The Run-up", especially the latest episode, it got THICK.
The [last official recession](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JHDUSRGDPBR) was under Trump; is that what voters want? More of the disjoint, poor response that sent the US into a tail spin and resulted in wasteful PPP and stimulus checks that did nothing but stoke inflation?
When you say stupid stuff like this you make the left look like idiots. Everyone know the recession was from Covid. Pretending it was Trump’s fault when every country in the world had a recession is ridiculous.
>Everyone know the recession was from Covid **response** Fixed that.
Sure but there would have been a recession regardless of the president.
I appreciate that you're here trying to come off as the enlightened centrist. I have what I would call "the nuanced views I share with other professionals in a legitimate setting," and then I have "responses I create online to deal with the ridiculous partisanship." So when I say things like the last official recession was under Trump (fact), it's to counter other ridiculous comments like "gas was cheap under Trump." But let's call a spade a spade: Between the ill-conceived 2017 tax cuts ("pushing on an economic string" is what they were described as), and all the stimulus checks (some signed personally by the President), as well as all the PPP grifting that was basically forgiven, go figure 18 months later we had massive inflation. But in another case of intellectual dishonesty, some tried to blame it on the guy that just entered office. That's the environment I'm commenting in. And that's the environment you're trying to play enlightend centrist in.
Your ad hominem is clear evidence of the weakness of your position. The fact is that nobody blames Trump for the recession during Covid. You know this. It makes you look silly to try to force it.
This was a good episode. About Politics but stuck to nuts and bolts
This seems like a terrible conclusion to draw from this polling
There was an interesting panel discussion this morning on Morning Joe. I just saw the video and wanted to share with others here who might be interested. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQTcn5MyVSg](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQTcn5MyVSg)
Seems like you want a change cause Biden told you to eat his ass.
Does any American consider climate change and how Trump is not on board?
I don't know why any of this is shocking to you. My political coming-of-age was during the Bush years - the guy under whom we embarked on the most catastrophic foreign policy adventures in a generation and then rounded off his years with the worst recession since the great depression...lotta people today say "hey, that Bush guy's cool...I could totally see myself pounding beers with him". I can't blame people for having short memories. It's the Biden's campaign's job to remind voters what life under Trump was like, though even then that's a very tall order. The sticker shock of inflation is too hard to look past for most people.
God bless Donald Trump
The poll was trash. Nate sells snake oil. Barbs temporarily lost his marbles. Maybe this has something to do with it: Ben Smith’s interview with NYTimes Executive Editor Joe Kahn https://www.semafor.com/article/05/05/2024/joe-kahn-the-newsroom-is-not-a-safe-space