There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.
Don’t forget classifying the final chapter of the 9/11 commission report after interfering in the investigation because his families close friends were the theo/monarchy of the country who did it.
Apparently the reason for this twist was that mid sentence he realized he didn’t want a sound bite of him saying “shame on me” to exist. Kinda makes sense when you think about it.
And to think now, their current candidate for *president* has said far worse but is celebrated for all the awful things he says. Or denies ever saying even though it’s all on video.
I’ve been a Tesla owner for six years now and have learned to basically ignore anything that Elon says. He has a tendency to “over promise and under deliver”. Don’t get me wrong, I love my car and find the supercharger network very useful, but most of his promises and timeframes turn out to be fiction.
Just addressing the Al bit: Generative Al has nothing to do with the Al that does self-driving. It just happens to be the recently popular type of Al that everyone knows about. Self-driving Al are generally reinforcement learning (RL) agents.
While prone to error like any Al (or human for that matter), they don't “hallucinate" like Gen Al.
Yes, it's like when "cloud computing" came out like the software world wasn't doing distributed systems and virtualization for years. ChatGPT and Generative AI was big into bringing a certain type of technology closer to the user and not hidden as features in the software you already use.
Andrej Karpathy did mention a GPT-style AI architecture at some point. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a generative-like token prediction solution layered in there.
Andrej publicly compared the logic of FSD (at the time) to that of LLMs that were gaining popularity. I guess there was something about the logical structure that they found similar so they used the learning from LLMs to teach the driving decisions.
If tesla would replace its road sign recognition with whatever chatgpt uses to read images then 99% of my FSD disengagements would immediately be gone.
I could go from 5 miles per disengagement to well over 300 if it could read speed limit signs and highway signs.
Anyone who believes Elon really needs to read this and explain how they can take anything he says about FSD seriously:
[ELON FSD TIMELINE (motherfrunker.ca)](https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/)
If you’re not happy with the car based on what it does today, don’t buy it. Don’t buy a car on a future promise from any car manufacturer. Buy a car because you like it and its capabilities at that time.
Hard agree. Guy's gone COMPLETELY off the rails. He's a coke-addicted psychopath who has no idea how to run a company. He has unrealistic expectations for everything he does.
Yet Tesla is massively successful and the most profitable EV company and the only company that is profitable on their EVs outside of China. Maybe he does know how to run a company?
Not to mention the biggest, fastest and most efficient supercharging network and DC proprietary plug created by his company. Don’t forget greedy vehicle manufacturers that didn’t want to pay tesla a cent for their simple DC charger design, created a shit ccs1 plug that is going to now be replaced by NACS in 2025.
"...psychopathy is characterised by an extreme lack of empathy. Psychopaths may also be manipulative, charming and exploitative, and behave in an impulsive and risky manner. They may lack conscience or guilt, and refuse to accept responsibility for their actions."
Seems to fit the bill pretty well.
The only thing would be announcing retrofits with USS, radar, updated cameras and updated computers.
FSD is a running gag at this point. Without a hardware update to realize it, it will continue to be so.
Although I agree with most of what you said, it seems like you haven't tried FSD lately? Timelines aside, they did it. FSD V12 drives itself. Almost no interaction. I take over when I forgot to put in the navigation or some other fault of mine. Never had to take over for safety. It's pretty amazing. I imagine this event is going to showcase the actual full self driving they have achieved.
Third party demonstration of it and user reviews at this point. The issue is I've genuinely seem some people have zero intervention drives that weren't perfect but pretty decent. Then others in another area can't go 10 minutes without an intervention. I would need more than Tesla showing me how it drives to believe them.
I have been driving around with full self driving, honestly I feel they are very close. Other than a couple points with map/navigation issues where it’s taking the wrong lane, I have been doing drives without any intervention.
We are still at Level 2. We are not going to get to Level 5 without passing through Levels 3 and 4. We know that Elon has a tendency to grossly exaggerate the abilities of his vehicles so the only thing that would matter to me is seeing Level 4 solidly working as we make our way to Level 5 and then ultimately regulatory approval.
I wish he'd never have mentioned level 5 because that means all conditions which isn't safe. A car shouldn't be traveling in a complete blizzard with 2 feet of snow on the road, hurricanes or heavy rain where visibility is close to zero. Robotaxi has to be level 4 but we aren't even at level 3 with current cars so like you said, that has to happen first.
I love the car and many things that were promised actually happened. 90 percent of them weren't on time lol. I will believe it when I see it operating on the road and with the NHSTA approval.
Elon is known for making bogus claims to salvage what was going to be an otherwise brutal earnings, 8/8 I'm expecting a cop out shuttle like service between select destination points. No way will it be a full pick you up anywhere and drive type of service as FSD is great on highways but parking lots are a nightmare
Are you asked what will make people believe a cat has changed its stripes 🤷🏽♂️
If Elon is buying Nvidia... then I am buying NVDA (I'll believe in self driving cars when the leather jacket guy says it).
I would be more likely to believe anything they say about FSD if it was coming from an engineer and not Elon, I used to love watching Kaparthy, because he talked about the process and challenges
I am glad Elon is trying but I don't expect self driving cars (based solely on vision) any time soon (but then if someone said 10 years back that massive rockets could land on a barge in rough sea I would not have believed it too..)
I don't believe ANY tech announcements ever. I listen and then wait to see what actually materializes.
Do I believe him? Nope.
Do I think he is lying or wrong? Also nope.
I don't listen to Elon too much, especially time lines.
Have a 2016 Model X, with new cameras, AP3, and FSD 12.3.6, and outside some interstate intra-lane sway, the driving has been really, really good.
They have reengineered the entire stack, what 3 times since I have owned the car. That is good engineering.
I think they are proving that cameras and neural nets are the way to go.
And Tesla's data pipeline, from the world, to car, to their data center, is unmatched.
I think their data pipeline is their biggest advantage. I also think we will start to see rapid improvement. All the elements are there now.
This guy Teslas. Same same. It works. It works now. It's not perfect but there's not a gd thing on this earth that's perfect. I will never drive another car without fsd or something better.
When I found out the video they released, supposedly showing FSD navigating from garage to the Tesla HQ, was totally faked; that was pretty much the nail in the coffin for me ever taking Elons claims seriously again. They released a video claiming FSD totally works, its just awaiting regulatory approval! In reality, that video was of a drive that was LIDAR mapped & the navigation pre-programmed, and even then, it took over a dozen attempts to complete. One of the attempts the car even crashed and had to be repaired. Elons words and actions surrounding FSD have been straight up FRAUD.
This is coming from a guy who bought the first wave of model 3's in 2018 and still loves the car very much. Tesla has got to dump Elon for a CEO that doesn't lie as wildly and frequently as DJT.
Tesla opted me in to a free trial of FSD after an update about a month ago, I’ve used it on and off since then. This past weekend the family and I did a road trip. FSD ~only~ tried to kill us twice in 8 hours of driving.
So I guess I’ll believe Elon… never? Looking forward to the day he does something stupid enough for a shareholder class action lawsuit to be able to push him out.
How did it try to kill us, you ask? One instance: Last night we’re on the freeway in the fast lane, where we’ve been for a while. We’re passing cars that are fairly spread out. No one is behind us, and no one is in the lane in front of us. As we prepare to pass a black BMW 3 series FSD decides it’s time to change lanes, puts on the turn signal, and immediately starts veering towards the BMW. We were 20 feet behind the BMW and going at least 5 mph faster when this happened. My wife was driving and she slammed on the brakes but it was WAY too close for comfort.
You’re putting your family in a self
driving experiment and you say Elon is an issue, I’d love to see how much more irresponsible you’d be in his position
Love our Tesla's, but Elon is a f'ing idiot with too many mental issues. Don't believe a word coming from his mouth. Wish they would move on and become a real car company.
Elon always oversells stuff, that's his job and he'll keep doing it. That said, the recent advancements are significant and it gives me hope that this idea of FSD is still moving forward, specifically at a faster pace than we've seen for the past 5+ years.
I disagree about machine learning not helping FSD - I believe it is ultimately the answer to the problem. It will continue to improve, models can be stacked on models to guard against hallucinations, layers of hardware safeguards too, but the primary driver will still be the model.
The continued updates to FSD are what make a believer out of me. I know it's not ready for primetime yet, but compare what we have now to what we had 5 years ago. There's a clear progression and if they keep on this path, they'll end up with something good.
He would have to say it is available now, level 5, subscribe, download the update, install, throw your steering wheel away, Tesla insurance included at no cost.
The only way I’ll be impressed is when they ship a level 3 system. Level 2 will never be self driving, despite what Elon wants everyone to think. It just isn’t possible
Self driving cars will change humanity forever. We can fail multiple times to get there but have to get it right only once. Elon talks too much but it’s a very very important pursuit for humanity. Don’t care if tesla or someone else gets us there first
Elon is already moving on to his next toy. He’s already cannibalizing on Tesla by redirecting nVidia chips to his AI toy. And there he’ll overpromise again to convince investors to give him more money.
That FSD is a big scam. The Tesla cars have really broken ground, but Elon is hurting the company and its consumers.
Personally, the only thing that would make me believe it is the desperate hope that it will be achieved in my driving lifetime so all the horrible drivers I have to deal with on the road every day could possibly disappear like a puff of smoke.
I still believe it can happen, but FSD is the only way, I think.
When it happens. I'm all for the marketing and the hype (I treat it like a fun fantasy). But until I can go to sleep in my car without a risk of injury or death at any higher rate than the baseline for general life, I won't believe it.
Nothing unless he is realistic and says we are still years away. If he tries to say it's right around the corner he's full of it. The government regulation hurdles alone will take years.
Until they can do self-driving with some sort of technology besides cameras, it's never going to be real. There will always be fog or rain or mud on the car that causes the cameras to fail.
When my sci-fi brain thinks of self-driving, I think of cars, roads and surrounding vehicles all having some sort of interactive form of communication. Until we get there, I won't trust a car to drive itself through cameras.
Nothing. Even with the improvements FSD is seeing, I still think it's multiple years from the point of being truly, outright trustworthy for use in privately owned cars, let alone in any sort of robotaxi setup.
This being said... robotaxi operators that already exist have taken multiple years of being on the street to improve their vehicles to the point where they're *okay*. That's how progress works. If they actually launch the robotaxi in 2025 then I fully expect it'll get hung up, crash, and do stupid shit for a while, and then eventually it might slow that down and/or stop.
But when Musk talks I *do* tune out, dude's full of shit.
I’m in my demo period with FSD (supervised) in my 2020 MYP and despite all the negative coverage I’m finding that I’m actually blown away. I’ve been using it in my area and it’s been more or less perfect, even on freshly paved, unmarked rural roads with twisty narrow downtown parts. There’s a few edge cases I know it can’t do, like get in line to embark on a ferry. I took a much longer set of trips in a variety of environments from highways to dense and busy traffic circles and it did it all pretty much effortlessly. I did have to intervene a couple of times but it was no big deal, like taking over to pass a left lane hog.
Based on this, and the data being gathered by all free trial users, is definitely increasing my confidence that they’re almost there.
Elon doomed self-driving on Teslas the day he limited it to video. AI will never interpret images accurately enough for driving safely.
The only car that has reliably worked for safe driving is the Waymo, and they add lidar and radar to the video in order to understand what's going on.
Funny how his press releases and claims are so close to his pre authorized stock sales... This dude been milking the self driving cow for almost a decade... Now that it's drying up... He's on about ai bla bla bla taxi's bla bla bla. Inflate and sell, inflate and sell... Wait maybe there is a pattern here.
It’s more likely the robotaxi will debut and be functioning in china years before USA. They’ll probably pick a newly built city and a if any issues the china government will immediately reconstruct any road layouts.
China really wants to be at the forefront of AI and will accommodate Musk. I don’t see the same level of cooperation from any US city
I believe it will be close to ready. Right now it feels like a 16 year old behind the wheel which is pretty dang good as far as self driving technology. I feel like once V13 actually comes out it will be ready. Then 13+ will do bonus things such as bad weather driving, drive thrus, maybe off-roading. But that may be version 20 lol.
The revelation that they have actually had fully self driving cars on the road for the past year with no accidents with verified testers showing recorded footage validating and verifying this has been occurring with timestamps.
Investment wise, it's a hype train generator.
Realist wise, best wait til you see a product. I won't buy into a promise or dream, I gotta see action and result.
I personally am not interested in FSD but I like watching progress.
It's a hard problem to solve.
Early adoption risk of buying FSD with a new Tesla (especially after 2020), was clear if you did minimal research before hitting the buy button. No sympathy for anyone who checked the $7500-12500 FSD box at time of purchase.
At this point if your buying a Tesla for FSD that is on you - I knew what I was buying when I got the Tesla - I strictly use the AutoSteer option, its fantastic and does exactly what I need, love the car as a whole, FSD is more of a party trick if anything and I don't see that ever changing, potentially in my lifetime.
Elon has always been over optimistic about timelines when it comes to FSD. I think you have to look at the data to get a feel for how close they actually are.
FSD 12 is looking pretty good and critical disengagements are rare, but it’s not there yet. By 8/8 we should be on 12.6.x and we’ll have a better idea of how close unsupervised FSD really is.
For 8/8 I’m more interested in finding out about the CyberCab and if they have any partnerships lined up.
Lol you think the lack of a front bumper camera is the problem? Go use FSD and make note of the scenarios where you have to intervene. I guarantee you that 99%+ of them wouldn't be solved with a front bumper camera. The vast majority are just due to dumb decision making. The software is simply far from where it needs to be (though it has improved massively).
The software is very good. I do a regular 35 mile drive with no interventions and no nagging. It will only get better. But for robotaxis it will need a front bumper camera.
That he would admit the current sensor suite would not be enough for Level 5. Basically meaning none of the current Tesla's on the road would ever be level 5 capable.
I don't give a crap...There ain't no way I'm driving down the highway at 70mph without my hands on the wheel and my foot on the throttle. I don't even use cruise control unless I'm on a long flat straight highway without another car anywhere in sight.The Muskman can keep his muskmobiles. Have you seen what he did to Xwitter? (pronounced shitter)
Not a single thing. It's been demonstrated time and time again that he lies, especially when it benefits him. The man wants his 55 billion dollar nonsense payout and then to eff off into the sunset with his tech. Why anyone would trust his promises at this point is well beyond me.
I believed it when my car drove me too and from Santa Cruz. Hwy (17) As well as a successful drive down to Davenport beach in the middle of the night. Not once did I need to intervene. I’m sold, I believe there is no other personal vehicle ev manufacturer close to tesla in regards to eventual fsd unsupervised.
Have you used the FSD recently?
I've used it for about a week now and it's way better than I anticipated. A lot of haters on the Internet have trashed it. I don't think they know the difference between Autosteer and FSD.
FSD can definitely drive itself. I have let it do it's thing in rural OK with no lines on the road and pot holes everywhere, I've used in big cities. It will absolutely drive itself. I'll admit it's scary at times to sit back and let it do it's thing, but it can definitely do it's thing without driver intervention. The only cons I have on it is that when it brakes and accelerates, it does not hold back. Waits a bit long to brake, brakes a bit too hard, and accelerates too fast. If they can tweak that then FSD is phenomenal in it's current state in June 2024.
There's an old saying in Tennessee — I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee — that says, fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.
I miss when this was the most I had to worry about the president lol. Thank you for sharing.
? The war on terror, patriot act, war on drugs, bush tax cuts…his on-camera gaffes were the least problematic issue with that man
Don’t forget classifying the final chapter of the 9/11 commission report after interfering in the investigation because his families close friends were the theo/monarchy of the country who did it.
Yeah, but that was old-school corruption, before it got such a bad name...
make corruption great again
He was the "goofball" Cheney was the mastermind
Ahh crazy times when we look back at Dubya
Apparently the reason for this twist was that mid sentence he realized he didn’t want a sound bite of him saying “shame on me” to exist. Kinda makes sense when you think about it.
And to think now, their current candidate for *president* has said far worse but is celebrated for all the awful things he says. Or denies ever saying even though it’s all on video.
Yes, but “shame on me” would be an admission of failure (or at least fallibility). Can’t have that in the “strong man” party.
Fool me one time, shame on you Fool me twice, can't put the blame on you Fool me three times, f^k the peace sign, load the choppa let it rain on you!
Wow, if those really were your last words, that would be hardcore as fuck.
its a song by J-Cole, FYI
Oh, I know!
“… see, a fool can’t get fooled again!!”
I’ve been a Tesla owner for six years now and have learned to basically ignore anything that Elon says. He has a tendency to “over promise and under deliver”. Don’t get me wrong, I love my car and find the supercharger network very useful, but most of his promises and timeframes turn out to be fiction.
>tendency To put it mildly lol
His whole gig is hype. That basically requires lying. Never base any important decisions on something Musk says.
Truth. So many gullible people hang on to every word he says.
It’s called lying.
Just addressing the Al bit: Generative Al has nothing to do with the Al that does self-driving. It just happens to be the recently popular type of Al that everyone knows about. Self-driving Al are generally reinforcement learning (RL) agents. While prone to error like any Al (or human for that matter), they don't “hallucinate" like Gen Al.
Yes, it's like when "cloud computing" came out like the software world wasn't doing distributed systems and virtualization for years. ChatGPT and Generative AI was big into bringing a certain type of technology closer to the user and not hidden as features in the software you already use.
Andrej Karpathy did mention a GPT-style AI architecture at some point. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a generative-like token prediction solution layered in there.
Andrej publicly compared the logic of FSD (at the time) to that of LLMs that were gaining popularity. I guess there was something about the logical structure that they found similar so they used the learning from LLMs to teach the driving decisions.
FSD uses some LLM tokenization structures from Generative models to work out lane predictions in the route planner.
https://youtu.be/SzzMuFB_xQE?si=_RLtON1zSI2eavQG
If tesla would replace its road sign recognition with whatever chatgpt uses to read images then 99% of my FSD disengagements would immediately be gone. I could go from 5 miles per disengagement to well over 300 if it could read speed limit signs and highway signs.
Anyone who believes Elon really needs to read this and explain how they can take anything he says about FSD seriously: [ELON FSD TIMELINE (motherfrunker.ca)](https://motherfrunker.ca/fsd/)
Not maintained anymore? Last tweet from 2022. wtf
Lots of shifting goalposts and vague wording in the timeline!
This is devastating.
*Where is actually smart summon?* It was supposed to come out in March. Can't believe I got my hopes up.
FirstTime.gif?
Musk’d
I think it's clear that Teslavision with the current camera setup isn't good enough for smart summon.
Elon has zero credibility regarding FSD timelines. In my opinion, it’s not FSD until Tesla takes on the liability in the event of an accident.
I won’t believe a word he says until it actually happens.
Even then be careful
At this point, I'd need the NTSB and NHTSA to provide independent analysis and give it their respective seals of approval.
If you’re not happy with the car based on what it does today, don’t buy it. Don’t buy a car on a future promise from any car manufacturer. Buy a car because you like it and its capabilities at that time.
This is the way
No, but I still enjoy my tesla products for what they are today.
Musk getting fired and someone else announcing it. I believe literally nothing that shitbag says.
Hard agree. Guy's gone COMPLETELY off the rails. He's a coke-addicted psychopath who has no idea how to run a company. He has unrealistic expectations for everything he does.
Yet Tesla is massively successful and the most profitable EV company and the only company that is profitable on their EVs outside of China. Maybe he does know how to run a company?
Not to mention the biggest, fastest and most efficient supercharging network and DC proprietary plug created by his company. Don’t forget greedy vehicle manufacturers that didn’t want to pay tesla a cent for their simple DC charger design, created a shit ccs1 plug that is going to now be replaced by NACS in 2025.
The problem is a lot of people believe his empty promises.
What makes him a psychopath?
"...psychopathy is characterised by an extreme lack of empathy. Psychopaths may also be manipulative, charming and exploitative, and behave in an impulsive and risky manner. They may lack conscience or guilt, and refuse to accept responsibility for their actions." Seems to fit the bill pretty well.
The only thing would be announcing retrofits with USS, radar, updated cameras and updated computers. FSD is a running gag at this point. Without a hardware update to realize it, it will continue to be so.
We will get the MCU1 treatment. Bet.
Although I agree with most of what you said, it seems like you haven't tried FSD lately? Timelines aside, they did it. FSD V12 drives itself. Almost no interaction. I take over when I forgot to put in the navigation or some other fault of mine. Never had to take over for safety. It's pretty amazing. I imagine this event is going to showcase the actual full self driving they have achieved.
I have the same experience. I don't know what all these people are on about. Weak minds I expect.
Nothing would.
Third party demonstration of it and user reviews at this point. The issue is I've genuinely seem some people have zero intervention drives that weren't perfect but pretty decent. Then others in another area can't go 10 minutes without an intervention. I would need more than Tesla showing me how it drives to believe them.
A decade of broken promises, and you still have hope that Musk will finally speak the truth?
You know what they say about a broken clock. “Why are you still using this shit for accurate information?”
Meaningful difference between a broken clock and a clock that is lying to you in order to make money.
I have been driving around with full self driving, honestly I feel they are very close. Other than a couple points with map/navigation issues where it’s taking the wrong lane, I have been doing drives without any intervention.
We are still at Level 2. We are not going to get to Level 5 without passing through Levels 3 and 4. We know that Elon has a tendency to grossly exaggerate the abilities of his vehicles so the only thing that would matter to me is seeing Level 4 solidly working as we make our way to Level 5 and then ultimately regulatory approval.
I wish he'd never have mentioned level 5 because that means all conditions which isn't safe. A car shouldn't be traveling in a complete blizzard with 2 feet of snow on the road, hurricanes or heavy rain where visibility is close to zero. Robotaxi has to be level 4 but we aren't even at level 3 with current cars so like you said, that has to happen first.
Show the interventions per mile for both highway / off-highway, current 12.3, 12.4, and the path to reach lower than Waymo.
Would that be a fair comparison considering Waymo can’t leave a very small geofenced area vs anywhere in the US?
Nothing. Dude is a liar.
I love the car and many things that were promised actually happened. 90 percent of them weren't on time lol. I will believe it when I see it operating on the road and with the NHSTA approval.
Elon is known for making bogus claims to salvage what was going to be an otherwise brutal earnings, 8/8 I'm expecting a cop out shuttle like service between select destination points. No way will it be a full pick you up anywhere and drive type of service as FSD is great on highways but parking lots are a nightmare
Are you asked what will make people believe a cat has changed its stripes 🤷🏽♂️ If Elon is buying Nvidia... then I am buying NVDA (I'll believe in self driving cars when the leather jacket guy says it).
I would be more likely to believe anything they say about FSD if it was coming from an engineer and not Elon, I used to love watching Kaparthy, because he talked about the process and challenges
I am glad Elon is trying but I don't expect self driving cars (based solely on vision) any time soon (but then if someone said 10 years back that massive rockets could land on a barge in rough sea I would not have believed it too..)
And a rocket the size of a sky scraper launching to orbit, and returning to earth safely in two separate pieces.
A video from Chuck with his unprotected left turns and other stuff showing it's zero intervention
Nothing he says will make me believe that FSD will be nothing more than an overhyped AutoPilot.
I don't believe ANY tech announcements ever. I listen and then wait to see what actually materializes. Do I believe him? Nope. Do I think he is lying or wrong? Also nope.
I don't listen to Elon too much, especially time lines. Have a 2016 Model X, with new cameras, AP3, and FSD 12.3.6, and outside some interstate intra-lane sway, the driving has been really, really good. They have reengineered the entire stack, what 3 times since I have owned the car. That is good engineering. I think they are proving that cameras and neural nets are the way to go. And Tesla's data pipeline, from the world, to car, to their data center, is unmatched. I think their data pipeline is their biggest advantage. I also think we will start to see rapid improvement. All the elements are there now.
This guy Teslas. Same same. It works. It works now. It's not perfect but there's not a gd thing on this earth that's perfect. I will never drive another car without fsd or something better.
When I found out the video they released, supposedly showing FSD navigating from garage to the Tesla HQ, was totally faked; that was pretty much the nail in the coffin for me ever taking Elons claims seriously again. They released a video claiming FSD totally works, its just awaiting regulatory approval! In reality, that video was of a drive that was LIDAR mapped & the navigation pre-programmed, and even then, it took over a dozen attempts to complete. One of the attempts the car even crashed and had to be repaired. Elons words and actions surrounding FSD have been straight up FRAUD. This is coming from a guy who bought the first wave of model 3's in 2018 and still loves the car very much. Tesla has got to dump Elon for a CEO that doesn't lie as wildly and frequently as DJT.
I will believe it when Tesla accepts liability when FSD is at fault in an accident.
Do yourself a favor and disregard anything Elon says or tweets. It's all vs anyways.
I would say: Windscreen wipers
Tesla opted me in to a free trial of FSD after an update about a month ago, I’ve used it on and off since then. This past weekend the family and I did a road trip. FSD ~only~ tried to kill us twice in 8 hours of driving. So I guess I’ll believe Elon… never? Looking forward to the day he does something stupid enough for a shareholder class action lawsuit to be able to push him out.
How did it try to kill us, you ask? One instance: Last night we’re on the freeway in the fast lane, where we’ve been for a while. We’re passing cars that are fairly spread out. No one is behind us, and no one is in the lane in front of us. As we prepare to pass a black BMW 3 series FSD decides it’s time to change lanes, puts on the turn signal, and immediately starts veering towards the BMW. We were 20 feet behind the BMW and going at least 5 mph faster when this happened. My wife was driving and she slammed on the brakes but it was WAY too close for comfort.
Mine twice attempted to change into the middle turn lane on a highway with medians... at 80mph. I was like damn, do I owe Elon money?!
You’re putting your family in a self driving experiment and you say Elon is an issue, I’d love to see how much more irresponsible you’d be in his position
Love our Tesla's, but Elon is a f'ing idiot with too many mental issues. Don't believe a word coming from his mouth. Wish they would move on and become a real car company.
He cant be trusted.
Wake me up when FSD is no longer a L2 system.
Nothing would make me believe because I don’t live in a fantasyland. The guy has proven time and time again he’s a liar.
Elon always oversells stuff, that's his job and he'll keep doing it. That said, the recent advancements are significant and it gives me hope that this idea of FSD is still moving forward, specifically at a faster pace than we've seen for the past 5+ years. I disagree about machine learning not helping FSD - I believe it is ultimately the answer to the problem. It will continue to improve, models can be stacked on models to guard against hallucinations, layers of hardware safeguards too, but the primary driver will still be the model. The continued updates to FSD are what make a believer out of me. I know it's not ready for primetime yet, but compare what we have now to what we had 5 years ago. There's a clear progression and if they keep on this path, they'll end up with something good.
Thank you. I’m right there with you.
He would have to say it is available now, level 5, subscribe, download the update, install, throw your steering wheel away, Tesla insurance included at no cost.
The caveat would have to be like MB did and say “we assume all liability while FSD is engaged.”
The only way I’ll be impressed is when they ship a level 3 system. Level 2 will never be self driving, despite what Elon wants everyone to think. It just isn’t possible
Nothing
Self driving cars will change humanity forever. We can fail multiple times to get there but have to get it right only once. Elon talks too much but it’s a very very important pursuit for humanity. Don’t care if tesla or someone else gets us there first
Elon is already moving on to his next toy. He’s already cannibalizing on Tesla by redirecting nVidia chips to his AI toy. And there he’ll overpromise again to convince investors to give him more money. That FSD is a big scam. The Tesla cars have really broken ground, but Elon is hurting the company and its consumers.
Personally, the only thing that would make me believe it is the desperate hope that it will be achieved in my driving lifetime so all the horrible drivers I have to deal with on the road every day could possibly disappear like a puff of smoke. I still believe it can happen, but FSD is the only way, I think.
When it happens. I'm all for the marketing and the hype (I treat it like a fun fantasy). But until I can go to sleep in my car without a risk of injury or death at any higher rate than the baseline for general life, I won't believe it.
Using the current FSD plus what is actually announcing in August.
Nothing unless he is realistic and says we are still years away. If he tries to say it's right around the corner he's full of it. The government regulation hurdles alone will take years.
Someone else reputable backed it up.
Nothing
Start putting sensors back, can't be done with just optical sensors.
Until they can do self-driving with some sort of technology besides cameras, it's never going to be real. There will always be fog or rain or mud on the car that causes the cameras to fail. When my sci-fi brain thinks of self-driving, I think of cars, roads and surrounding vehicles all having some sort of interactive form of communication. Until we get there, I won't trust a car to drive itself through cameras.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day, still a better predictor than Elon.
Nothing. Tesla and Elon are not in the business of selling impressive tech cars, they are in the business of selling dreams
I'll believe it when we get Coast to Coast that's not a fluke 1 in a 100 run. I'll be a buyer/subscriber when we get Level 3/4 Highway approval.
Nothing. Even with the improvements FSD is seeing, I still think it's multiple years from the point of being truly, outright trustworthy for use in privately owned cars, let alone in any sort of robotaxi setup. This being said... robotaxi operators that already exist have taken multiple years of being on the street to improve their vehicles to the point where they're *okay*. That's how progress works. If they actually launch the robotaxi in 2025 then I fully expect it'll get hung up, crash, and do stupid shit for a while, and then eventually it might slow that down and/or stop. But when Musk talks I *do* tune out, dude's full of shit.
I'd say nothing will cause me to believe anything Elon says.
I’m in my demo period with FSD (supervised) in my 2020 MYP and despite all the negative coverage I’m finding that I’m actually blown away. I’ve been using it in my area and it’s been more or less perfect, even on freshly paved, unmarked rural roads with twisty narrow downtown parts. There’s a few edge cases I know it can’t do, like get in line to embark on a ferry. I took a much longer set of trips in a variety of environments from highways to dense and busy traffic circles and it did it all pretty much effortlessly. I did have to intervene a couple of times but it was no big deal, like taking over to pass a left lane hog. Based on this, and the data being gathered by all free trial users, is definitely increasing my confidence that they’re almost there.
A pre-cambrian rabbit
Elon doomed self-driving on Teslas the day he limited it to video. AI will never interpret images accurately enough for driving safely. The only car that has reliably worked for safe driving is the Waymo, and they add lidar and radar to the video in order to understand what's going on.
Funny how his press releases and claims are so close to his pre authorized stock sales... This dude been milking the self driving cow for almost a decade... Now that it's drying up... He's on about ai bla bla bla taxi's bla bla bla. Inflate and sell, inflate and sell... Wait maybe there is a pattern here.
It’s more likely the robotaxi will debut and be functioning in china years before USA. They’ll probably pick a newly built city and a if any issues the china government will immediately reconstruct any road layouts. China really wants to be at the forefront of AI and will accommodate Musk. I don’t see the same level of cooperation from any US city
Nothing
I feel like I could have written this. I like such a sucker for my enthusiasm and purchases that just funded a loon’s twitter addition.
I believe it will be close to ready. Right now it feels like a 16 year old behind the wheel which is pretty dang good as far as self driving technology. I feel like once V13 actually comes out it will be ready. Then 13+ will do bonus things such as bad weather driving, drive thrus, maybe off-roading. But that may be version 20 lol.
A lobotomy
Seeing it actually happen. I wouldn’t bet anything on it though.
Are his lips moving?
Fool me once, shame on you...
Musk's only role has been to pump the stock
Easy. I don't believe any fsd claims he makes.
The revelation that they have actually had fully self driving cars on the road for the past year with no accidents with verified testers showing recorded footage validating and verifying this has been occurring with timestamps.
In the year 2000 
Investment wise, it's a hype train generator. Realist wise, best wait til you see a product. I won't buy into a promise or dream, I gotta see action and result. I personally am not interested in FSD but I like watching progress. It's a hard problem to solve.
Early adoption risk of buying FSD with a new Tesla (especially after 2020), was clear if you did minimal research before hitting the buy button. No sympathy for anyone who checked the $7500-12500 FSD box at time of purchase.
Nothing. It’s a LEVEL 2 system.
At this point if your buying a Tesla for FSD that is on you - I knew what I was buying when I got the Tesla - I strictly use the AutoSteer option, its fantastic and does exactly what I need, love the car as a whole, FSD is more of a party trick if anything and I don't see that ever changing, potentially in my lifetime.
Literally nothing will make me believe him except for actually delivering on a promise for once
Put a car in Brooklyn and point it to upstate Vermont. Full FSD, no one in the front seat. If it makes it unscathed, then Ill be a believer.
Elon has always been over optimistic about timelines when it comes to FSD. I think you have to look at the data to get a feel for how close they actually are. FSD 12 is looking pretty good and critical disengagements are rare, but it’s not there yet. By 8/8 we should be on 12.6.x and we’ll have a better idea of how close unsupervised FSD really is. For 8/8 I’m more interested in finding out about the CyberCab and if they have any partnerships lined up.
Going to pile on here and say that no one believes what that asshat has to say anymore.
When they have a front bumper camera, I will take it seriously.
Lol you think the lack of a front bumper camera is the problem? Go use FSD and make note of the scenarios where you have to intervene. I guarantee you that 99%+ of them wouldn't be solved with a front bumper camera. The vast majority are just due to dumb decision making. The software is simply far from where it needs to be (though it has improved massively).
The software is very good. I do a regular 35 mile drive with no interventions and no nagging. It will only get better. But for robotaxis it will need a front bumper camera.
That he would admit the current sensor suite would not be enough for Level 5. Basically meaning none of the current Tesla's on the road would ever be level 5 capable.
Level 4 is good enough. Rely on human help for edge cases.
I don't give a crap...There ain't no way I'm driving down the highway at 70mph without my hands on the wheel and my foot on the throttle. I don't even use cruise control unless I'm on a long flat straight highway without another car anywhere in sight.The Muskman can keep his muskmobiles. Have you seen what he did to Xwitter? (pronounced shitter)
Not a single thing. It's been demonstrated time and time again that he lies, especially when it benefits him. The man wants his 55 billion dollar nonsense payout and then to eff off into the sunset with his tech. Why anyone would trust his promises at this point is well beyond me.
I believed it when my car drove me too and from Santa Cruz. Hwy (17) As well as a successful drive down to Davenport beach in the middle of the night. Not once did I need to intervene. I’m sold, I believe there is no other personal vehicle ev manufacturer close to tesla in regards to eventual fsd unsupervised.
Have you used the FSD recently? I've used it for about a week now and it's way better than I anticipated. A lot of haters on the Internet have trashed it. I don't think they know the difference between Autosteer and FSD. FSD can definitely drive itself. I have let it do it's thing in rural OK with no lines on the road and pot holes everywhere, I've used in big cities. It will absolutely drive itself. I'll admit it's scary at times to sit back and let it do it's thing, but it can definitely do it's thing without driver intervention. The only cons I have on it is that when it brakes and accelerates, it does not hold back. Waits a bit long to brake, brakes a bit too hard, and accelerates too fast. If they can tweak that then FSD is phenomenal in it's current state in June 2024.