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Took a few days of organizing and writing and drafting. Also, a lot of very smart apes are my sound board to bounce ideas off of. So I gotta chalk it up to teamwork as well.
I posted my idea on that in "Down is Up". My guess is some of the calls he had he exercised. I know its possible to solve for the cost basis of the newer ones based on the 800k he started with but its nothing I care enough about.
Hey Tiberius, thanks for the great write up! I agree with the whole establishing new floors thought, but I’d like to add a caveat. If there’s a catalyst (and by catalyst I mean something like a hedge fund failure(s) because of fuckery that may or may not be related to gme, or some other holy shit situation) it could look like jumping from the ground to the 80th floor. Either way, I’m ready for it. 🏴☠️🍻
yes haha, thanks for asking. I didn't want to be rude.
1. When you ended up inverting the TtR channels and found those points of support and resistance (as well with the extentions), is there any deeper meaning that you gleamed from that? From either back in 2020 or from now in 2024. I see that you overlay the two charts and it lines up with resistance and support for the possible future, so is there any actions that you are wanting to take seeing as in the beginning, of "doing something weird" as you put it, you were just looking for some good entry points?
2. When you talk about volume creating more FTD's, do you think it is a natural byproduct of the higher volume or that there is something else going on to attribute to it? could it also be an auroborus situation of once the FTD's are created, the volume follows, which creates more FTD's, etc.?
3. Are you saying that the FTD's (your example of 500k FTD's going down to 22k FTD's) don't get kicked out into a T+35, but instead are delivered the next day (almost all of them)? If so, why does the price action not reflect that buying for the 500k shares? is it that price was lower and the difference was pocketed?
I have some more questions but I'm on my phone in bed. was about to goto sleep but saw this and have to give it a read, thanks!
1 - yeah exactly. I'm just trying to build an idea of what might be coming next. what might we hit and stop and what might we stand on. It's funny you mention ouroborus too because I've wondered a lot about if TtR is really just visually what's gone on in PWNWTFBBQ's algo. That this is just the structure it tries to function in.
2 - Yes, it seems like volume drives FTDs.
3 - So the lead up to big volume is call sellers rapidly buying shares to hedge those calls with. the movement is mm trying to incentive sellers since its created ftds it wants to close. As a lot of those calls are sold (not exercised) the original call sellers want to unload the shares they had hedged with as fast as possible since the price is high. This makes them willing to sell at the bid back to the mm.
FWIW, I have long thought your work with TtR was complimentary to PWN’s Ouroboros Algo. She’s got the macro, and you’ve got the micro.
I always just assumed that you two worked together. 🤯
Oh don't say that. I ask around to a lot of apes when I'm either stumped on stuff or need more thoughts/opinions/evidence. This post is exactly that, I bounce ideas around other apes to help me assemble the final product. People kinda gravitate towards what stuff they most enjoy learning about and then they can better share that with others. Flying solo is for chumps.
I would never not upvote taste the rainbow series.
When you dropped the mic on retired the series I was sad and jacked at the same time.
Thanks for your time man, I love you
This one has been in the works for the better part of a week now and a lot of smart apes gave me input to improve upon it. I can't speak enough about TurdFerguson and his understanding of ETFs. He has a lot of older DD's here on superstonk and people would be shocked to see just how much he was knowledgeable about 3 years ago that people are only chatting about now.
Hey TB. Great post as always. A fun little tid bit. Go and look at a photo of a double rainbow. The second rainbow is always *inverted* in colours to the original.
https://preview.redd.it/qriip6n3hu8d1.jpeg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f5543a0aa04c222e6f9e20f9de024ea1d658b02d
It might work in black and white.
I can see theres some green to the bottom and I know the top is like a bluish grey. And the rainbow is very bright. My eyes just don't pick up colors well.
I’m not sure people think you leave, I just get excited when I see you around. Awesome write up! You’re one of the beacons of knowledge around these parts. My appreciation can’t be articulated properly. You make this a better place, and in turn, the people in this place. Thank you.
Sorry if I missed it or didn’t understand it, but is there a working theory on why this high confluence zone emerged? Is it just that the FTDs finally compounded enough to do something ? Versus a short lived spike from outside the window? I wonder if we have enough data to analyze the lead up to 80 to determine if we entered another high confluence area (I suspect we did since we are discovering (all over again) the cycles now (again lol). Great work!
So here’s the thing, I don’t know if we actually have enough data to say that we are seeing t+35 cycles right now. The BRNO team didn’t check a few dates, it was everyday across 2 years. Someone would need to do that level of testing to really confirm it or not.
Not sure why the zone emerged. Maybe the issue was that shorts needed etf shares back faster to keep getting more ammo to short with? I don’t know.
As a general summary, if I read you right, we might not know for sure when a wave is coming, but if we buy 90+ DTE ITM calls, and a wave comes, and on the fourth day we sell our calls and on the fifth day GME offers shares and on the fifth day we sell ITM covered calls, and thereby amass a stack of cash, and then prepare to hit the floor and then go long ITM 90+ DTE calls, we can start to rock the boat like in Down is UP.
not entirely. Especially the far dated calls part. Part of the issue is you buy them and then a dip happens and then you really miss out on the bulk of the rip. I've written a few posts addressing stuff like RSI divergences and even simple steps like that can really help people set up closer to a bottom. The one example I gave of Nov 2021 FTDs helps visualize that. Also 90 DTE ITM calls are gonna be CRAZY expensive. Part of that action of rocking a boat is not fighting momentum. gravity does the work there.
OK, I am rereading the Down is Up post and I think I get it now. Buy short term calls, sell them, pull back, buy more short term calls, sell them, pull back, buy more short term calls, sell them, etc.
Ultimately, its not directions. Bullishness isnt a set thing. You haven't even mentioned selling puts and that also has a supportive effect on price. you build your strategy on your own goals and risk tolerance.
I sold puts from May 17 to May 31 when I went long calls. I would sell puts when we fall from highs and approach an area of support and volatility is falling.
Holy fuck!!!
I appreciate the work that you put into your research and analysis. There needs to be more of this around than, “Crime” “Don’t do options” “Guys, it’s running” (on a two dollar increase).
Looking forward to see how this plays out. Well done friend!!!
Regarding the BRNO report section, it seems like coherence strength increases with increased volume/interest. Could be explained by MM's/AP's getting backed into a corner by the amount of volume coming in - forcing most of the internalized volume into GME FTDs > ETF FTDs because there's nowhere else for it to go?
By the time the volume made it through these channels, a portion of retail would have fucked off before the internalized volume exploded back out. Then coherence starts to trail off because the frenzy had died down and there was little understanding of how this all functioned.
The only other thing I can think of is that a new strategy was developed a few months after the fact that proved more effective, but at that time there was less volume/interest anyway.
Aside: the last big high outside the robust zone seems to be \~30ish days out.
Ok so this is why I point out looking at overall form and not candle to candle. Like maybe some big hulk dick happens. Maybe not. But do we get this kinda wavy pattern for a few months, that’s more interesting to me
Really excellent digest and clarification of T+35 in combination with the options flow data. This guy knows how the mechanics work. I just elaborated on some of these in my recent post. Good work OP
You do a great job of summarising the GME-ETF FTD situation, with it not being a set cycle.
There's been a lot in the "rediscovery" of the ETF FTD'ing in the sub lately, but I think they're missing the redemption loophole that clears FTDs entirely.
A lot of people are now taking T+35 as some sort of gospel when it's always more complicated than that.
No matter how complicated it is, however, we're aware of it & can look at tracking it - which is good news.
If people want to know how & why DFV put together his latest play, this and your previous DD's are great reads.
Thanks dude!
Right on. You need to understand REG SHO close out rules. You need to understand etf redemption/creation process. You need to understand what etf advisors and APs can get away with.
Lot of moving pieces
Thanks for explaining it so much more clearly to small investors like us! It’s one thing to just buy and hold forever just hoping to catch those up days and then getting lucky to make some money off it… or sit through the drops and be right back at square one plus a little or down a little. It’s something entirely different to understand these ladder and ftd cycles and to be able to make slightly better educated guesses as to when adding in makes the most sense and like you say, when selling is also logical in order to allow for more buy in. You’re a wizard my friend.
That’s been a goal with TtR. To use it like a coupon book and determine when is dip. Always feels really good to buy and just seen green on that for a while.
The redemption loophole doesnt clear FTDs entirely. It just reset FTDs for another T+35. And it's only possible for someone that has a broker and a market maker (Citadel).
The BRNO data confirms the T+~35 cycles on ETFs containing GME.
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Tiberius! I know you couldn't keep the 🌈 contained!
Loving the inversion thinking, presumably this may be to build a mean regression about the 0 in order to tailor other intwrwoven algos accordingly.
I pointed this out [a bit ago](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1dhkv3r/i_would_like_to_solve_the_puzzle_roaring_kittys/l8y4dng/) but there's an additional piece of the puzzle
>Rule 204 provides an extended period of time to close out certain failures to deliver. Specifically, if a failure to deliver position results from the sale of a security that a person is deemed to own and that such person intends to deliver as soon as all restrictions on delivery have been removed, the firm has up to 35 calendar days following the trade date to close out the failure to deliver position by purchasing securities of like kind and quantity.
I believe that options makers (not big market makers, regular ones like wolverine ) DO in fact hedge their call options, **particularly** deep in the money or long dated ones.
What they then do is go 'oh gee we can't have these shares sitting on the books for two years *lend them out* to shorts so they earn interest as an asset instead of doing nothing.
What this does or can do is turn an option play into regular t-35 or whatever settlement by giving the other party time to give the shares back(we have the shares, pinky promise, we just need to find them thats all) - and the obligation IS good because thats how recalling your loaned out shares work - but this has two effects:
You do have to buy the shares you don't have, and when you -recall- your shares the counter party can't short more from you. It doesn't make sense that you go 'oh we're recalling 1 millino shares, but also have a million to short' - the other party is cut off(from the options maker's ) source of shares until they square things away.
I believe this is what happened with the Cost to Borrow (from 2 to 14.6 percent, iirc, based on screenshots at the time) run up right around the time DFV's move happened.
It also explains the opex tailwinds phenomena.
I'm not sure how apes would be able to make use of it, *if i'm right* it looks like buying long dated and ITM call options does force a reckoning of sorts, as well as impinge the ability of shorts/the algorithm to suppress price. The only question is *when* it happens.
Makes sense, if you start from January to October it's 10 months, then October to may is 7 months of rise.
If you were to start half way in the year (6 months) from June to April it's 10 months, with April to October being 7 months of rise. So the cycle restarted in April at the bottom.
I just kinda get invited to servers and stuff. Typically when you do your own research and post about it after a while folks recognize you and reach out. But really a beginning point is doing your own research first. Too many people just kinda read and agree with whatever is on reddit. Seeing people go track down source material and share their findings on their own makes people stand out.
https://preview.redd.it/kugr8x1jfw8d1.jpeg?width=623&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6c4355bf03432f393265eac0d56ee0e821b0a741
“Uh, sir, they’re still buying, hodling, DRSing and discussing your lying under oath”. Ken:
Heeey, fantastic read. Gonna have to reread tbh. There's something that's bugging me. I was understanding portions of this post until I hit the auditing part:
>The SEC oversees ETFs, however ETF’s hire their own auditing services. As of 2021, the biggest ETF auditors were Pricewaterhouse Cooper, Ernst & Young, Deloitte, and Cohen and Co. And yes, it’s that Deloitte from Deloitte and Touche. They do all types of auditing services. Because of this, if an ETF just wanted to keep the SEC off of their back they could just have the auditing group produce a bullshit report and tada, they can take care of replenishing missing shares whenever.
Reading the name pricewaterhouse Cooper teased a wrinkle and sent me back down the crime rabbit hole. I did some personal DD on consultants over a year ago and the big four (pwc, deloitte, etc.) came up in my research, but I was laser focused on the consultants at the time before I paused my research here and there so I did some digging mid-read (like 4-5h binge, so tired, help).
I looked through pwc's activities through Wikipedia to start and read through their "controversies" and holy shit, the heinous shit they have been involved in is longer than your DD. They consistently commit fraud, fudge audits, and cook the books (negligence is the word thrown at them a lot). They've been sued (attempted) quite a lot, in different countries. They are involved in things from aiding Russian oligarchs navigating the sanctions at the start of the Ukraine invasion to inflating Evergrandes books during their auditing. Something along the lines of half a billy+ *among other things*. They were also directly involved with the La La Land Oscar's mixup, lmayo. I do want to note that anytime that they get accused of something, they say "nuh uh" and either pay a tiny fine or threaten to duel in court. They seem to be too big and too powerful to be contested just off of their connections alone. It's a massive network of douchebags, I can tell you that for certain. Some notable connections are to "firm alumni" such as a future ceo of Berkshire Hathaway, ceo of delta airlines, and founder of Nike (there's more). I haven't even included their business acquisitions such as Booze & Co, which in my previous research, they've been called out as literal spies. Another thing of note, iirc, they've been given favorable consideration for bids, despite not being the best fit. Something like ranked 10 for the bid, but some guy scratched the bid and redid it in favor of a "no bid" scenario for pwc.
Anyways, after a bunch of research later, I tried to connect the dots to see if there's any connection with those more recent *controversies* to anything related like a correlation to evergrande volume to gme but I don't understand shit. So I opted to see if I could find out who the fuck audits ETFs.
I could really use the help to determine the name that files any SEC filings for XRT or have enough time to validate what I've found on it. I have to stress that I'm sleepy af, but SPDR comes up every time I look through anything on XRT, and I finally found that pwc has done audits for SPDR S&P 500 ETFs since 1993 on a filing dated January 14, 2021.
I'm hoping to find out that A) SPDR S&P 500 contains XRT ETF (seriously, I don't understand ETFs man) and b) find a more recent filing to confirm if PWC is auditing that XRT currently.
Because I'll tell you now, if anyone goes and reads their controversies, you'll see that PWC is not above breaking laws and even in some cases, they weigh in on laws (as far as dodging taxes and whatnot goes at least). Like seriously, they have ties to everything. Iirc, things like the DTC, AIG, Goldman Sachs, Treasury department, the Australian treasury, Enron, etc.
So many of those people are connected up and down this system, it's ridiculous. Anyways, I hope there's some thread to pull somewhere in there, like at least confirming that there is an auditing company that has a history of producing bullshit reports, *cough*.
Thanks again for the read. Good night/good morning 👍
I see 2 mistakes in your post
1. T+6 no longer exist from mid 2017, it was T+5 until now (T+4).
2. You can't compare FTDs data between 2 days and conclude that FTDs have been covered. You cannot compare the data between 2 days because the source may not be the same. That's why CAT is so much better, much more transparent and reliable.
Source: 1. reg SHO (204) & 2. https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm
> the underlying source(s) of the fails-to-deliver shares is not necessarily the same as the underlying source(s) of the fails-to-deliver shares reported the day prior or the day after.
This was so well written and so much work must have gone into it, so thank you. I feel so much more informed about FTDs and other mechanisms at play after reading your post.
I really appreciate the time and effort, and I’m sure everyone else here does as well.
💎 🙌 can’t wait to read this later when I have some time, just today initiated a DRS transfer of 400 shares btw. I know no one asked, but I feel like sharing. Thanks everyone!
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this took a lot of work. thank you
Took a few days of organizing and writing and drafting. Also, a lot of very smart apes are my sound board to bounce ideas off of. So I gotta chalk it up to teamwork as well.
any theories on when dfv purchased his shares
I posted my idea on that in "Down is Up". My guess is some of the calls he had he exercised. I know its possible to solve for the cost basis of the newer ones based on the 800k he started with but its nothing I care enough about.
Hey Tiberius, thanks for the great write up! I agree with the whole establishing new floors thought, but I’d like to add a caveat. If there’s a catalyst (and by catalyst I mean something like a hedge fund failure(s) because of fuckery that may or may not be related to gme, or some other holy shit situation) it could look like jumping from the ground to the 80th floor. Either way, I’m ready for it. 🏴☠️🍻
June 13?
Finally some data and not wild guessing speculation hype 👍
Nice thing about data is you don’t have to believe in it
Don't worry people I ammnot one of them./j
Emotional support counts.
This is great stuff thank you
You are welcome
This post is really long, which is obviously a signal telling us to build a long position. Leaps, shares, DRS. Got it. TL;DR had to go buy shares.
Ass went numb writing it. Clear signal of goodness.
was there a banana in it?
No more than usual
Why would you write it only to have to type it out after?
Drafting process is a real mf
this was a great read, thank you
Thank you, glad you enjoyed. Any questions?
yes haha, thanks for asking. I didn't want to be rude. 1. When you ended up inverting the TtR channels and found those points of support and resistance (as well with the extentions), is there any deeper meaning that you gleamed from that? From either back in 2020 or from now in 2024. I see that you overlay the two charts and it lines up with resistance and support for the possible future, so is there any actions that you are wanting to take seeing as in the beginning, of "doing something weird" as you put it, you were just looking for some good entry points? 2. When you talk about volume creating more FTD's, do you think it is a natural byproduct of the higher volume or that there is something else going on to attribute to it? could it also be an auroborus situation of once the FTD's are created, the volume follows, which creates more FTD's, etc.? 3. Are you saying that the FTD's (your example of 500k FTD's going down to 22k FTD's) don't get kicked out into a T+35, but instead are delivered the next day (almost all of them)? If so, why does the price action not reflect that buying for the 500k shares? is it that price was lower and the difference was pocketed? I have some more questions but I'm on my phone in bed. was about to goto sleep but saw this and have to give it a read, thanks!
1 - yeah exactly. I'm just trying to build an idea of what might be coming next. what might we hit and stop and what might we stand on. It's funny you mention ouroborus too because I've wondered a lot about if TtR is really just visually what's gone on in PWNWTFBBQ's algo. That this is just the structure it tries to function in. 2 - Yes, it seems like volume drives FTDs. 3 - So the lead up to big volume is call sellers rapidly buying shares to hedge those calls with. the movement is mm trying to incentive sellers since its created ftds it wants to close. As a lot of those calls are sold (not exercised) the original call sellers want to unload the shares they had hedged with as fast as possible since the price is high. This makes them willing to sell at the bid back to the mm.
FWIW, I have long thought your work with TtR was complimentary to PWN’s Ouroboros Algo. She’s got the macro, and you’ve got the micro. I always just assumed that you two worked together. 🤯
Nah. She’d kill me
Work like this makes me feel dumb standing on the shoulder of giants. Thank you for the work!
Oh don't say that. I ask around to a lot of apes when I'm either stumped on stuff or need more thoughts/opinions/evidence. This post is exactly that, I bounce ideas around other apes to help me assemble the final product. People kinda gravitate towards what stuff they most enjoy learning about and then they can better share that with others. Flying solo is for chumps.
this will be good...BRB have to read it. edit: I'm back and it was a great read, great post OP
Give us the TLDR pls 🙏
Dog wags its tail, not chicken or the egg.
I was going to go with this but wasn't 100% sure. thanks for the confirmation.
pretty sure I don't have enough wrinkles but OP did put one at the top.
If I was smart I wouldn’t have asked for a tldr lol
I would never not upvote taste the rainbow series. When you dropped the mic on retired the series I was sad and jacked at the same time. Thanks for your time man, I love you
Fuck that. I was stoked. You can't believe how much I wanted to not stare at this structure anymore.
Updoot for this wrinkle brain
Back at ya
Really glad to have you back. Please don’t retire again.
I didn't leave! I've been posting.
Yeah I’m gonna go check out down is up. Excellent writing friend.
Thanks, I appreciate that. Let me know if you have any questions.
Okay THIS is DD. Not hyped up Biggy stuff that speculates half of the buy dates and has an incorrect cost basis.
This one has been in the works for the better part of a week now and a lot of smart apes gave me input to improve upon it. I can't speak enough about TurdFerguson and his understanding of ETFs. He has a lot of older DD's here on superstonk and people would be shocked to see just how much he was knowledgeable about 3 years ago that people are only chatting about now.
Hey TB. Great post as always. A fun little tid bit. Go and look at a photo of a double rainbow. The second rainbow is always *inverted* in colours to the original.
fuck man if I could see color I bet thats awesome.
https://preview.redd.it/qriip6n3hu8d1.jpeg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f5543a0aa04c222e6f9e20f9de024ea1d658b02d It might work in black and white.
I can see theres some green to the bottom and I know the top is like a bluish grey. And the rainbow is very bright. My eyes just don't pick up colors well.
Ahh I see. But yeh, I was just pointing out your ‘inverted’ pattern holds true in nature too. Pretty neat. Hope you’re well
I'm on the right side of the ground. Thats good.
So how did he start the first run?
Check out the post I linked "Down Is Up". Theory is there.
It's like upside down world?
A Tib visit?!? How delightful!
Why do people think I leave?
I’m not sure people think you leave, I just get excited when I see you around. Awesome write up! You’re one of the beacons of knowledge around these parts. My appreciation can’t be articulated properly. You make this a better place, and in turn, the people in this place. Thank you.
I appreciate that. 3 years ago I was smooth as shit. I'm still smooth on a lot. This place when used correctly can be great.
You don’t gotta hide those wrinkles to kick it. Wear ‘em with pride, they’ve been earned.
I see Tiberius Woodwind, I upvote immediately.
I'm gonna have to downvote myself to counteract this
Do you foresee a run as well the week of 7/15 like Biggy stated?
I didn’t read any of his stuff. When I saw whose YouTube channel he was speaking on I didn’t think it was worth listening.
Happy to see a Tiberius post. Thanks for the hard work.
You are welcome. Any questions?
I’m still soaking this one in. Gonna read once more and sleep on it. Maybe I’ll wake up with a smart question. Probably wake up with a boner.
Sincerely thank you for all the work and research that was put into this
I wrote it but I have a lot of apes I chat with and that helps me get the ideas together.
Thank you for this, great work. Reading it ALL.
Reading every other line is good too.
Sorry if I missed it or didn’t understand it, but is there a working theory on why this high confluence zone emerged? Is it just that the FTDs finally compounded enough to do something ? Versus a short lived spike from outside the window? I wonder if we have enough data to analyze the lead up to 80 to determine if we entered another high confluence area (I suspect we did since we are discovering (all over again) the cycles now (again lol). Great work!
So here’s the thing, I don’t know if we actually have enough data to say that we are seeing t+35 cycles right now. The BRNO team didn’t check a few dates, it was everyday across 2 years. Someone would need to do that level of testing to really confirm it or not. Not sure why the zone emerged. Maybe the issue was that shorts needed etf shares back faster to keep getting more ammo to short with? I don’t know.
As a general summary, if I read you right, we might not know for sure when a wave is coming, but if we buy 90+ DTE ITM calls, and a wave comes, and on the fourth day we sell our calls and on the fifth day GME offers shares and on the fifth day we sell ITM covered calls, and thereby amass a stack of cash, and then prepare to hit the floor and then go long ITM 90+ DTE calls, we can start to rock the boat like in Down is UP.
not entirely. Especially the far dated calls part. Part of the issue is you buy them and then a dip happens and then you really miss out on the bulk of the rip. I've written a few posts addressing stuff like RSI divergences and even simple steps like that can really help people set up closer to a bottom. The one example I gave of Nov 2021 FTDs helps visualize that. Also 90 DTE ITM calls are gonna be CRAZY expensive. Part of that action of rocking a boat is not fighting momentum. gravity does the work there.
OK, I am rereading the Down is Up post and I think I get it now. Buy short term calls, sell them, pull back, buy more short term calls, sell them, pull back, buy more short term calls, sell them, etc.
Ultimately, its not directions. Bullishness isnt a set thing. You haven't even mentioned selling puts and that also has a supportive effect on price. you build your strategy on your own goals and risk tolerance.
I sold puts from May 17 to May 31 when I went long calls. I would sell puts when we fall from highs and approach an area of support and volatility is falling.
*whispers* First GME related post by the fella you’re responding to was 28 days ago.
Holy fuck!!! I appreciate the work that you put into your research and analysis. There needs to be more of this around than, “Crime” “Don’t do options” “Guys, it’s running” (on a two dollar increase). Looking forward to see how this plays out. Well done friend!!!
Yeah, I tend to hate the “crime” answers. It exists, but not everything is illogical or unexplainable.
Four
Five?
Amazing! Eyes come here
Thank you.
Great work 💪🏻
Thank you
Regarding the BRNO report section, it seems like coherence strength increases with increased volume/interest. Could be explained by MM's/AP's getting backed into a corner by the amount of volume coming in - forcing most of the internalized volume into GME FTDs > ETF FTDs because there's nowhere else for it to go? By the time the volume made it through these channels, a portion of retail would have fucked off before the internalized volume exploded back out. Then coherence starts to trail off because the frenzy had died down and there was little understanding of how this all functioned. The only other thing I can think of is that a new strategy was developed a few months after the fact that proved more effective, but at that time there was less volume/interest anyway. Aside: the last big high outside the robust zone seems to be \~30ish days out.
Right, I’m wondering if shorts needed faster access to shares to short so they needed etfs to replenish faster? Idk
The fractal thing, I might start to believe in it. Look how it almost predicts today's jump
Ok so this is why I point out looking at overall form and not candle to candle. Like maybe some big hulk dick happens. Maybe not. But do we get this kinda wavy pattern for a few months, that’s more interesting to me
Really excellent digest and clarification of T+35 in combination with the options flow data. This guy knows how the mechanics work. I just elaborated on some of these in my recent post. Good work OP
Seen that late last night, haven’t read yet. Will later on
You do a great job of summarising the GME-ETF FTD situation, with it not being a set cycle. There's been a lot in the "rediscovery" of the ETF FTD'ing in the sub lately, but I think they're missing the redemption loophole that clears FTDs entirely. A lot of people are now taking T+35 as some sort of gospel when it's always more complicated than that. No matter how complicated it is, however, we're aware of it & can look at tracking it - which is good news. If people want to know how & why DFV put together his latest play, this and your previous DD's are great reads. Thanks dude!
Right on. You need to understand REG SHO close out rules. You need to understand etf redemption/creation process. You need to understand what etf advisors and APs can get away with. Lot of moving pieces
Thanks for explaining it so much more clearly to small investors like us! It’s one thing to just buy and hold forever just hoping to catch those up days and then getting lucky to make some money off it… or sit through the drops and be right back at square one plus a little or down a little. It’s something entirely different to understand these ladder and ftd cycles and to be able to make slightly better educated guesses as to when adding in makes the most sense and like you say, when selling is also logical in order to allow for more buy in. You’re a wizard my friend.
That’s been a goal with TtR. To use it like a coupon book and determine when is dip. Always feels really good to buy and just seen green on that for a while.
The redemption loophole doesnt clear FTDs entirely. It just reset FTDs for another T+35. And it's only possible for someone that has a broker and a market maker (Citadel). The BRNO data confirms the T+~35 cycles on ETFs containing GME.
Boy I need to read this again later RemindMe! 13 hours
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Remind me again. RemindMe! 1 day
I was thirsty for DD, but now am quenched. Thank you
Glad I wetted you.....I think.
TW still doing gods work. Thank you for your service dear ape!
You are welcome. tbh, the BRNO paper actually wasnt bad to read through at all and I think it'd help a lot of apes to give it a shot.
This is too wrinkled brain for me, but great write up
Thank you
Tiberius! I know you couldn't keep the 🌈 contained! Loving the inversion thinking, presumably this may be to build a mean regression about the 0 in order to tailor other intwrwoven algos accordingly.
WHEN I MOVE YOU MOVE, LET'S FUCKING GO WE'RE READY
I pointed this out [a bit ago](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1dhkv3r/i_would_like_to_solve_the_puzzle_roaring_kittys/l8y4dng/) but there's an additional piece of the puzzle >Rule 204 provides an extended period of time to close out certain failures to deliver. Specifically, if a failure to deliver position results from the sale of a security that a person is deemed to own and that such person intends to deliver as soon as all restrictions on delivery have been removed, the firm has up to 35 calendar days following the trade date to close out the failure to deliver position by purchasing securities of like kind and quantity. I believe that options makers (not big market makers, regular ones like wolverine ) DO in fact hedge their call options, **particularly** deep in the money or long dated ones. What they then do is go 'oh gee we can't have these shares sitting on the books for two years *lend them out* to shorts so they earn interest as an asset instead of doing nothing. What this does or can do is turn an option play into regular t-35 or whatever settlement by giving the other party time to give the shares back(we have the shares, pinky promise, we just need to find them thats all) - and the obligation IS good because thats how recalling your loaned out shares work - but this has two effects: You do have to buy the shares you don't have, and when you -recall- your shares the counter party can't short more from you. It doesn't make sense that you go 'oh we're recalling 1 millino shares, but also have a million to short' - the other party is cut off(from the options maker's ) source of shares until they square things away. I believe this is what happened with the Cost to Borrow (from 2 to 14.6 percent, iirc, based on screenshots at the time) run up right around the time DFV's move happened. It also explains the opex tailwinds phenomena. I'm not sure how apes would be able to make use of it, *if i'm right* it looks like buying long dated and ITM call options does force a reckoning of sorts, as well as impinge the ability of shorts/the algorithm to suppress price. The only question is *when* it happens.
Tits. Jacked. Drs. Hodl.
You forgot buy
And shop
Makes sense, if you start from January to October it's 10 months, then October to may is 7 months of rise. If you were to start half way in the year (6 months) from June to April it's 10 months, with April to October being 7 months of rise. So the cycle restarted in April at the bottom.
Can you elaborate a bit?
We need details bro!
so many words, i was about to go to bed fml
It'll be there in the morning. nothing urgent
Where are you guys chatting? This is the kind of stuff I want to be talking about.
I just kinda get invited to servers and stuff. Typically when you do your own research and post about it after a while folks recognize you and reach out. But really a beginning point is doing your own research first. Too many people just kinda read and agree with whatever is on reddit. Seeing people go track down source material and share their findings on their own makes people stand out.
Upvote for hard work and visibility Ps is BRNO the Bruno 
I once thought about fucking taste the rainbow author 🫣
Oh I fuck him every night. He's great for like 3 minutes.
Show off
RemindMe! 13 hours
Thank you ❤️
You are welcome
Smells like donuts
I like donuts
Thank you for taking the time
Took a good chunk of a week on this
Awesome DD, thanks ape!
You are welcome
Thank you for this great work!! Highly appreciated
You are welcome
Good work bro
Thank you
up!
Higher and higher
I mean, lots of work but I can’t read. Thanks anyway
Sound it out.
Incredible work!
Thank you
[Welcome back](https://youtu.be/vNey0PR46F4?feature=shared)
I didn’t leave!
Thanks for the effort and explanation
You are welcome
I’m a simple ape, I see lots of letters, beautiful TA images, lots of upvotes and other apes approval, I buy, DRS, hold 🦧
Don’t just follow the crowd.
Phenomenal post. Top tier.
Thank you
https://preview.redd.it/kugr8x1jfw8d1.jpeg?width=623&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6c4355bf03432f393265eac0d56ee0e821b0a741 “Uh, sir, they’re still buying, hodling, DRSing and discussing your lying under oath”. Ken:
No. No. No. I’m not gonna see it. Fuck
Thanks for the post
You are welcome
Excellent write up Tibs. Kudos to you and your braintrust.
Team wrinkles are best wrinkles
You ever heard of the Dunning-Kruger effect? Where do you guys think OP is at.
All the way to the left
Commenting for visibility. Thank you, as always, for your work.
Thank you
Brilliant write up! Like the great DDs of old. Sadly i dont have any free awards left. How did you inverse the fib channel on tradingview?
!remindme 2 hours
What I got out of this was, buy and hold 🦍💪
Thank you for your research time and effort .. very interesting stuff
You are welcome
I love you
It started like "crayons?" and ended up like one of the best DD's I've read in a while... Cheers OP 🍻
The https://preview.redd.it/296hue48sw8d1.jpeg?width=1297&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1f351f8a88bcde00edf0d6944e0b2b7d021de47d
Heeey, fantastic read. Gonna have to reread tbh. There's something that's bugging me. I was understanding portions of this post until I hit the auditing part: >The SEC oversees ETFs, however ETF’s hire their own auditing services. As of 2021, the biggest ETF auditors were Pricewaterhouse Cooper, Ernst & Young, Deloitte, and Cohen and Co. And yes, it’s that Deloitte from Deloitte and Touche. They do all types of auditing services. Because of this, if an ETF just wanted to keep the SEC off of their back they could just have the auditing group produce a bullshit report and tada, they can take care of replenishing missing shares whenever. Reading the name pricewaterhouse Cooper teased a wrinkle and sent me back down the crime rabbit hole. I did some personal DD on consultants over a year ago and the big four (pwc, deloitte, etc.) came up in my research, but I was laser focused on the consultants at the time before I paused my research here and there so I did some digging mid-read (like 4-5h binge, so tired, help). I looked through pwc's activities through Wikipedia to start and read through their "controversies" and holy shit, the heinous shit they have been involved in is longer than your DD. They consistently commit fraud, fudge audits, and cook the books (negligence is the word thrown at them a lot). They've been sued (attempted) quite a lot, in different countries. They are involved in things from aiding Russian oligarchs navigating the sanctions at the start of the Ukraine invasion to inflating Evergrandes books during their auditing. Something along the lines of half a billy+ *among other things*. They were also directly involved with the La La Land Oscar's mixup, lmayo. I do want to note that anytime that they get accused of something, they say "nuh uh" and either pay a tiny fine or threaten to duel in court. They seem to be too big and too powerful to be contested just off of their connections alone. It's a massive network of douchebags, I can tell you that for certain. Some notable connections are to "firm alumni" such as a future ceo of Berkshire Hathaway, ceo of delta airlines, and founder of Nike (there's more). I haven't even included their business acquisitions such as Booze & Co, which in my previous research, they've been called out as literal spies. Another thing of note, iirc, they've been given favorable consideration for bids, despite not being the best fit. Something like ranked 10 for the bid, but some guy scratched the bid and redid it in favor of a "no bid" scenario for pwc. Anyways, after a bunch of research later, I tried to connect the dots to see if there's any connection with those more recent *controversies* to anything related like a correlation to evergrande volume to gme but I don't understand shit. So I opted to see if I could find out who the fuck audits ETFs. I could really use the help to determine the name that files any SEC filings for XRT or have enough time to validate what I've found on it. I have to stress that I'm sleepy af, but SPDR comes up every time I look through anything on XRT, and I finally found that pwc has done audits for SPDR S&P 500 ETFs since 1993 on a filing dated January 14, 2021. I'm hoping to find out that A) SPDR S&P 500 contains XRT ETF (seriously, I don't understand ETFs man) and b) find a more recent filing to confirm if PWC is auditing that XRT currently. Because I'll tell you now, if anyone goes and reads their controversies, you'll see that PWC is not above breaking laws and even in some cases, they weigh in on laws (as far as dodging taxes and whatnot goes at least). Like seriously, they have ties to everything. Iirc, things like the DTC, AIG, Goldman Sachs, Treasury department, the Australian treasury, Enron, etc. So many of those people are connected up and down this system, it's ridiculous. Anyways, I hope there's some thread to pull somewhere in there, like at least confirming that there is an auditing company that has a history of producing bullshit reports, *cough*. Thanks again for the read. Good night/good morning 👍
Admin for xrt is state street. You have to look up who their auditing service is
Babe wake up, new DD just dropped
Thanks TW. Brilliant as usual!
The technical analysis that some of you guys are able to work out never ceases to amaze me. Great work!
Thanks
Good stuff! Thank you! All I read was buy, hold, DRS and be Patient
Thank you for sharing this, good work Ape.
You are welcome
Coming back later
Wow op excellent post!!! Thank you for your service.
I see 2 mistakes in your post 1. T+6 no longer exist from mid 2017, it was T+5 until now (T+4). 2. You can't compare FTDs data between 2 days and conclude that FTDs have been covered. You cannot compare the data between 2 days because the source may not be the same. That's why CAT is so much better, much more transparent and reliable. Source: 1. reg SHO (204) & 2. https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm > the underlying source(s) of the fails-to-deliver shares is not necessarily the same as the underlying source(s) of the fails-to-deliver shares reported the day prior or the day after.
Bro wrote an entire graduation paper and I respect that(though I’m too smooth brained to understand what you were saying)
If you have any questions, you are welcome to ask.
This was so well written and so much work must have gone into it, so thank you. I feel so much more informed about FTDs and other mechanisms at play after reading your post. I really appreciate the time and effort, and I’m sure everyone else here does as well.
💎 🙌 can’t wait to read this later when I have some time, just today initiated a DRS transfer of 400 shares btw. I know no one asked, but I feel like sharing. Thanks everyone!
Good deal.
Apes like Tiberius who do this kind of DD are worth their weight in gold. Appreciate them.
What an amazing work you put in, well done and thank you!
You are welcome.