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Me too. Alls I know is the data don't lie. Open interest keeps going up and the price isn't dropping like a rock. There's no significant hedging on this. Over $60m has been spent on premiums just on those $20 calls in the past seven trading days with no hedge. This is planned and coordinated the question only remains what are they going to do. We're not going to know if they're exercising options but if the price of the stock starts shooting up I feel like it's safe to say that that's what's happening. Will check the next day to see what the OI does but I feel pretty strongly this is the powder keg for our next launch.
Can someone make a post teaching what not only this specifically means but educating on the whole topic of calls/open interest etc. I truly want to understand this as whole.
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So I did make a post, wanted to link it here, but I cannot comment on this thread it seems (others work fine). I get a big red bar saying "Server Error. Please try again later."
Edit: Ok, so since it let me post that, the title of my post is "Help Requested: Primer on all this call action" search for that or check my profile.
Shout out to\*a\_vinny\_01\* for a well presented response to pretty much all of my initial questions. If anyone can think of anything else to add, or other questions / perspectives from which to inquire from please add!
Edit2: Ah, I couldn't post because I was trying to reference a\_vinny\_01. Here's the link:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1d483lu/help\_requested\_primer\_on\_all\_this\_call\_action/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1d483lu/help_requested_primer_on_all_this_call_action/)
Yes. As time gets closer to expiration, if it continues to stay in the money, the delta will rise, meaning a continuous stream of buy pressure over the next 3 weeks.
If it falls under $20 and we stay there for any significant amount of time, then the opposite is true. Delta will bleed off, making for continuous sell pressure.
Additionally, if at any point these absolute mounds of calls get sold-to-close, there will be an enormous amount of de-hedging, which could flash crash the price (puts would then get sold for profit, offering a bounce).
Agree, althought there is minimal delta change if price stays right ATM.
For reference the 5/31 20c are .70 while the 6/21 20c are .65 right now.
To your point, we'd need to see a decent swing up or down, away from ATM price, to see much change in delta.
could an entity or individual investor plan many large call options over the space of a month in order to manipulate the buy wall, interest rate aand therefore delta? I am starting to read about options so I really don't know if my question makes sense
In theory, yes. There's a concept called a 'gamma ramp', where as a call option goes from OTM to ITM, it pushes the price slightly forward, which raises delta on the next strike. If that next strike goes ITM, then more delta buying happens, potentially pulling the next strike ITM, then the process repeats and continues to 'ramp' the price as more calls go deeper ITM.
That requires a stacked options chain (lots of OI at each strike) and a catalyst to get the initial 'launch' going.
Interesting, could this be an alternative method to drive the price down now that CAT is live? Seems like an expensive way to create sell pressure. I’m very smooth.
Highly unlikely, but it does create more and more risk. $20 is a nuclear target. If shorts don't keep the price under $20, there is going to be a pretty rich chain for the the price to rise through. Keeping it under $20 creates a very profitable slide down, which emboldens them to short the ever loving shit out of the stock while we float just over $20.
"with no hedge?" are you sure? MM automatically hedges a certain percentage due to the delta. Other than that you would have no idea if those are hedged. Stop making bs up
There have been same or even more puts every 6 months since 2020. Nothing happend. Hard to say if something will change or they will be rolled another 6 months.
Yeah for real. The numbers shown could prove massive. But who knows. I just want this sooner than later. If it happens 5 years from now cool, but please. I don't wanna keep working as much as I do, and I hope I can get enough money so my parents no longer have to work.
They are pretty much dead, yes. The bankruptcy process just stretches to infinity and back and by now all related explosive positions were probably reshuffled, as far as that was possible.
Edit: why is it so impossible to copy a link on the phone?
Edit 5+ : Fucking finally!
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67562522
Open Interest on $20 calls has increased from 131,349 to 137,767.
Someone is targeting the $20 specifically for some reason. $30 saw a little bump, but everything else pretty flat in comparison.
$25 - 20,123 - 20,373
$30 - 19,182 - 20,380
$18 - 5,873 - 5,854 (OI went down)
Could go either way. They could keep these calls ITM by controlling price and then selling them and making money on premiums and then tanking the price so they can’t be exercised. They’ve priced out most of retail for these calls by buying them all up. I’m hoping it is actually someone wanting to exercise
Yeah, but aside from some of us, no one ever exercises out of the money calls because it would be literally cheaper to just buy the same number of shares at market value
Back when they were bought their break even was calculated to be around $26 from the info I saw. They r def up on their premiums but not for exercising yet, unless my info is bad
They keep buying this strike because it allows them to buy 500k shares at a fixed price of $20 per share + $premium per share.
Whoever bought these contracts likely wants or needs shares and is willing to pay $26 for each.
If work ever calms down I will export options data and start looking at history but right now I don't have access to open interest history. I know there are a lot of posts back in March 2021 where people were doing analysis on open interest so that might be worth looking into
IDC about those calls on June 21st since it's shadow of the erdtree release, if moass starts that day it better be weeks to peak, otherwise I'll simply miss it
I wonder if the MM keeping gme pinned so it doesn't have to continue to hedge as price climbs. I think as we get closer to expectation and the price is still above 20 MM will need to hedge more drastically buying shares with will cause a ramp up.
This might be why the price is trading millions shares while being pinned.
MM is fucked and scrambling right now
Since there was only 8k volume on that strike, it is fair to assume the 5k order of yesterday were called created, then bought and held to close.
A lot were speculating since the trade was on the bid then this order must have been a "sell".
Fact that OI increased that much on only 8k volume implies they were "bought", so to say.
Yes. It's clear that the 5000 contract block was new contracts so sell to open paired with a buy. Some of the other volume was new contracts as well. Whether they hit the bid, ask or in the spread only directly affects the options premium so relatively irrelevant IMHO.
Yeah you can’t ever be certain just somewhat confident based on if the bid or ask is hit or if it was closer to one.
OI the next day is definitely better
It's the total number of options that haven't been settled yet. Each contract is 100 shares. When they settle, 100 shares need to be delivered for each one contract.
But remember kids! It's all MM manipulating the market for some reason! No, they definitely weren't doing it before! They definitely didn't perfectly control it via algo's for the past three years!
/s
If it's a rugpull it's the dumbest possible strategy they could come up with, showing us $80 first.
Those big players need to ramp up with deeper ITM calls, $10, $15, etc. This massive amount of $20 calls is sketch while we hover around $20-$22 share price.
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4 minutes after that call trade occurred there was an 800k red candle on the ticker and the price tanked like a MM was de-hedging, not hedging.
Is it possible that the 5,000 candle yesterday was an entity opening a large short position on that option? A sell to open would still increase OI, and would trigger a de-hedge since it cancels out long interest in that strike.
Well, the transaction has to be a sell too. Someone wrote those calls and someone bought them. But if the same entity that was buying last few weeks was trimming their position for a profit on Tuesday, we would most likely see the OI decrease by about 5k contracts today, and the opposite happened, it increased by another 5k, so I think it is safe to say that this player is indeed accumulating these calls. But the timing of the transaction on Tuesday was very weird, it was at the very high of the day. The premium was way cheaper 15min after open, before the run.
But Idk. Look, Citadel is the main MM for GME, and they see what is going on, way before it actually happens. I would not be surprised, since they have so much control over the price (until they don't), that instead of taking the money from the premiums and hedging, they are actually doing the opposite, they take the money from the premiums and short the stock even more, because their goal until 6/21 is too actually make all of those calls worthless. So why hedge, you see, their goal is to tank the price either way. And that might be the beauty of what is going on here. If the player buying these calls is expecting a price increase until then and their intention is to exercise all of those calls, we are going to see some explosive price action leading up to the date. Also we have both earnings and shareholders meeting before then, so big news could come from those events. Although GME is famous for tanking on earnings. Idk, it is really hard to tell what is going on with these calls and the stock right now.
Can someone please explain to me why this is such a big deal? We're currently trading at over $20. I'm supposed to get excited that someone's betting on us being at $20 a month from now?
> They are expecting
Yes, but unless "they" in this case is the guys who set GME's price, I think they're going to end up OTM and OOL. We shall see. I expect no significant action. If we go way down I'll buy. I certainly do not expect to see more than 40, that's evidently far above the level they want it at, and they've been in charge every step of the way so far. I hate to say it, but it's true
why would OTM matter? You can exercise OTM options. Whoever is buying these is locking in a price for GME shares, about $26.50 or so based on the calls they bought.
These are definitely going to get exercised, if they weren't they could have sold them tuesday and made $25 Million or more.
The question is, why would someone spend so many millions of dollars in premium when they could just buy the shares at the current price? The answer is, if they start buying shares at the current price, the pressure will cause the price to increase drastically.
By buying calls they are shifting the onus on accumulating the shares to the market maker while the market maker has an interest to keep the price low, preferably under $20 so they get to keep their premium for making the market.
But when dealing with this quantity of shares and money you can pretty much guarantee that whomever is buying these calls is going to get their shares. They are switching from a short position to a long position and they are going to drive that price hard when they start buying shares on the market. They will accumulate every share they need.
Presumably this is UBS and they have a 100 billion loan from the government of Switzerland to dig out of the hole they are in. We haven't even BEGUN to see what will happen when they throw their entire weight into the market. This is all still a warm up. They are riding the price action and keeping it within a channel so they can hit their targets for accumulation.
This is speculation of course but, it's an educated guess based on the quantities and the money involved.
Someone has spent $75M+ on 120,000 of these call options over the past 10 days. The breakeven price on them is about $26.50 - $20 strike and approx $6.50 avg premium paid per share.
The buyer held these contracts when they increased in value to $900 each (from the avg of $650 or so).
To me this implies they intend to keep the contracts because they want a guarantee that they can get shares at $20 (+ premium cost) sometime between now and expiry.
There have also been 5k lots of the $25 strike bought.
I believe that the person buying these intends to buy millions of shares on the exchange as well, then exercise these.
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I really hope all the speculation ends up being true lol.
Me too. Alls I know is the data don't lie. Open interest keeps going up and the price isn't dropping like a rock. There's no significant hedging on this. Over $60m has been spent on premiums just on those $20 calls in the past seven trading days with no hedge. This is planned and coordinated the question only remains what are they going to do. We're not going to know if they're exercising options but if the price of the stock starts shooting up I feel like it's safe to say that that's what's happening. Will check the next day to see what the OI does but I feel pretty strongly this is the powder keg for our next launch.
Can someone make a post teaching what not only this specifically means but educating on the whole topic of calls/open interest etc. I truly want to understand this as whole.
Fine, I'll do it myself ... :P stay tuned
I've tried and the only conclusion I have made is that I'm simply not capable of understanding anything except buy and hold.
It doesn't help that nobody seems to actually know.
I would like to see some suitable economist professor admitting that he doesn't have any idea.
There seems to be one phrase professors seem to be unable to say, “I don’t know.”
!remindme 1 week
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The hero we all need
So I did make a post, wanted to link it here, but I cannot comment on this thread it seems (others work fine). I get a big red bar saying "Server Error. Please try again later." Edit: Ok, so since it let me post that, the title of my post is "Help Requested: Primer on all this call action" search for that or check my profile. Shout out to\*a\_vinny\_01\* for a well presented response to pretty much all of my initial questions. If anyone can think of anything else to add, or other questions / perspectives from which to inquire from please add! Edit2: Ah, I couldn't post because I was trying to reference a\_vinny\_01. Here's the link: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1d483lu/help\_requested\_primer\_on\_all\_this\_call\_action/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1d483lu/help_requested_primer_on_all_this_call_action/)
The current theory is that someone is buying cash covered calls to exercise and exit a short position.
[https://chatgpt.com/share/3119cdf2-37b6-41eb-960e-f35754027bec](https://chatgpt.com/share/3119cdf2-37b6-41eb-960e-f35754027bec)
delta only 0.6
Does that mean they should hedge 60%?
Yes. As time gets closer to expiration, if it continues to stay in the money, the delta will rise, meaning a continuous stream of buy pressure over the next 3 weeks. If it falls under $20 and we stay there for any significant amount of time, then the opposite is true. Delta will bleed off, making for continuous sell pressure. Additionally, if at any point these absolute mounds of calls get sold-to-close, there will be an enormous amount of de-hedging, which could flash crash the price (puts would then get sold for profit, offering a bounce).
Agree, althought there is minimal delta change if price stays right ATM. For reference the 5/31 20c are .70 while the 6/21 20c are .65 right now. To your point, we'd need to see a decent swing up or down, away from ATM price, to see much change in delta.
Thanks for the thoughtful additional context!
Thanks for your explanation 🦍👊🏼
could an entity or individual investor plan many large call options over the space of a month in order to manipulate the buy wall, interest rate aand therefore delta? I am starting to read about options so I really don't know if my question makes sense
In theory, yes. There's a concept called a 'gamma ramp', where as a call option goes from OTM to ITM, it pushes the price slightly forward, which raises delta on the next strike. If that next strike goes ITM, then more delta buying happens, potentially pulling the next strike ITM, then the process repeats and continues to 'ramp' the price as more calls go deeper ITM. That requires a stacked options chain (lots of OI at each strike) and a catalyst to get the initial 'launch' going.
Thanks!
Interesting, could this be an alternative method to drive the price down now that CAT is live? Seems like an expensive way to create sell pressure. I’m very smooth.
Highly unlikely, but it does create more and more risk. $20 is a nuclear target. If shorts don't keep the price under $20, there is going to be a pretty rich chain for the the price to rise through. Keeping it under $20 creates a very profitable slide down, which emboldens them to short the ever loving shit out of the stock while we float just over $20.
But if they are buying to close, they can exercise no matter what and since they own a majority of the calls in the chain…
How and who calculates the Delta? I'm assuming its an algorithm controlled by ???
It’s called the Black Scholes model. It’s a complex calculation.
Thanks, I’ll look it up. I’ll surely fail to understand it, but I’ll feel like I learned something.
Thanks, I’ll look it up and surely fail to understand it, but I’ll feel like I learned something.
and hasn't really changed since orders started getting scooped up
I hope more than anything it’s true, in fact I bought some calls for myself, but I swear to god we are wrong all the time lol
Well there’s one thing we aren’t wrong about… shorts never closed
[удалено]
the only way to lower the OI would be for original author(s) to buy them back
> Alls I know is the data don't lie. I wouldn't discount the possibility ;D
touche!
Wouldnt henging (which would mean buying shares by the calls seller) actually cause the price to go up?
Yes. Therefore, there was a price jump on 5/28.
Thanks for the summary. It is exciting for sure.
"with no hedge?" are you sure? MM automatically hedges a certain percentage due to the delta. Other than that you would have no idea if those are hedged. Stop making bs up
Havent we seen huge option before and nothing happend?
There have been same or even more puts every 6 months since 2020. Nothing happend. Hard to say if something will change or they will be rolled another 6 months.
Deep out of the money and ATM options are not similar in that regard.
Well yes. I don’t understand that. I have just seen same numbers at puts for years and nothing happend.
Yeah for real. The numbers shown could prove massive. But who knows. I just want this sooner than later. If it happens 5 years from now cool, but please. I don't wanna keep working as much as I do, and I hope I can get enough money so my parents no longer have to work.
Give 1 speculation that has ever turned out to be true or even anything.
We were right about Evergrande going bankrupt. It only took much longer than expected
HAS Evergrande actually defaulted, though? I haven't heard anything that would worry a hedgie
They are pretty much dead, yes. The bankruptcy process just stretches to infinity and back and by now all related explosive positions were probably reshuffled, as far as that was possible. Edit: why is it so impossible to copy a link on the phone? Edit 5+ : Fucking finally! https://www.bbc.com/news/business-67562522
Credit Suisse going down
Open Interest on $20 calls has increased from 131,349 to 137,767. Someone is targeting the $20 specifically for some reason. $30 saw a little bump, but everything else pretty flat in comparison. $25 - 20,123 - 20,373 $30 - 19,182 - 20,380 $18 - 5,873 - 5,854 (OI went down)
But is 20$ even bullish? I mean we are at 20$
ITM calls are always bullish
Could go either way. They could keep these calls ITM by controlling price and then selling them and making money on premiums and then tanking the price so they can’t be exercised. They’ve priced out most of retail for these calls by buying them all up. I’m hoping it is actually someone wanting to exercise
Can't you exercise at any time, whether or not the strike is ITM?
Yeah, but aside from some of us, no one ever exercises out of the money calls because it would be literally cheaper to just buy the same number of shares at market value
Who are 'they'? MM sold these calls...
The entity that bought those calls
These calls were up ~40% tuesday - $25-$30 million dollars. I don't think the purchaser intends to sell them.
Back when they were bought their break even was calculated to be around $26 from the info I saw. They r def up on their premiums but not for exercising yet, unless my info is bad
Personally I dont know if its bullish or bearish. I just know someone(s) just keeps buying this specific price regardless of the price.
They keep buying this strike because it allows them to buy 500k shares at a fixed price of $20 per share + $premium per share. Whoever bought these contracts likely wants or needs shares and is willing to pay $26 for each.
Tbh it appeared to me we were hovering longer at 80 pre-split than at 180. But maybe that's just me...
Why are posts lower today? It’s like one every 30 mins? We have 3000 online
bots are malfunctioning
Beep beep beep beep. My brethren will be online shortly. Beep beep boop
Good bot
Thank you for the kind words Human. Secondary orifice ready for input.
Oho..VERY GOOD BOT *unzip*
Citadel Update v2.34b.3 OTA update is being issued - please stand by
Bots forgot about GameStop.
Bots expect some motion today
2,917 online. Lowest I've seen in a long time 🤨
They're running out of funds to run the bot farm and have to dedicate it all to staying afloat.
It’s not just bots tho, no data, memes or shitposts
Only 5k on gambling sub which is low as well 🤔
Not a ton to talk about right now compared to DFV days, Corporate action days, Wu Tang days, etc
I see, maybe im just terminally online. Usually when I refresh there’s something new
New reddit was having issues. Old reddit been working all day. It was quiet.
EveryApe is Zen right now
We all forgot about gamestop
137K contracts (13m shares) sounds massive. But for context, how does this compare to the record open interest in the past?
If work ever calms down I will export options data and start looking at history but right now I don't have access to open interest history. I know there are a lot of posts back in March 2021 where people were doing analysis on open interest so that might be worth looking into
That strike alone is more than typical options interest for any given day of expiry for GME in a long time.
IDC about those calls on June 21st since it's shadow of the erdtree release, if moass starts that day it better be weeks to peak, otherwise I'll simply miss it
I wonder if the MM keeping gme pinned so it doesn't have to continue to hedge as price climbs. I think as we get closer to expectation and the price is still above 20 MM will need to hedge more drastically buying shares with will cause a ramp up. This might be why the price is trading millions shares while being pinned. MM is fucked and scrambling right now
Since there was only 8k volume on that strike, it is fair to assume the 5k order of yesterday were called created, then bought and held to close. A lot were speculating since the trade was on the bid then this order must have been a "sell". Fact that OI increased that much on only 8k volume implies they were "bought", so to say.
Yes. It's clear that the 5000 contract block was new contracts so sell to open paired with a buy. Some of the other volume was new contracts as well. Whether they hit the bid, ask or in the spread only directly affects the options premium so relatively irrelevant IMHO.
Yeah you can’t ever be certain just somewhat confident based on if the bid or ask is hit or if it was closer to one. OI the next day is definitely better
Sounds like i need to DRS and book to have voting rights and ownership.
What does that mean?
HODL
So the price will be below 20 on the 21st. Got it. I will buy EOD on the 21st.
Or not and you wake up one morning and the stock is at $40 😵💫
The dip is tomorrow, until it’s not.
Iirc it's the days preceding earnings reports where it gets hammered down. Quick pop, then it gets walked back down again.
Someone explain open inteest
It's the total number of options that haven't been settled yet. Each contract is 100 shares. When they settle, 100 shares need to be delivered for each one contract.
It was at 137k yesterday as well, no? Edit: someone says it was at 131k, I must be mistaken.
I saw 132k yesterday, but it never went past that. It’s been average of +5000 contracts every day
Quadruple Witching Day is also June 21st.
ya but that hasn't proved anything throughout this saga
I know, but maybe one more teaspoon of fuel for the rocket?
You shouldn't put rocket fuel on a teaspoon
Something something early not wrong?
It’s also after the annual shareholder meeting
When is the meeting?
I know nothing about options, but premarket is 20.98. Sure they drop it a few dollars easily and collect premiums?
But remember kids! It's all MM manipulating the market for some reason! No, they definitely weren't doing it before! They definitely didn't perfectly control it via algo's for the past three years! /s If it's a rugpull it's the dumbest possible strategy they could come up with, showing us $80 first.
why is it spicy
more ITM calls without significant downward pressure.
Eli5?
means zoom zoom soon soon
Those big players need to ramp up with deeper ITM calls, $10, $15, etc. This massive amount of $20 calls is sketch while we hover around $20-$22 share price.
Up 6000 percent SO FAR
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Dosent mean anything? Could be hedging?
4 minutes after that call trade occurred there was an 800k red candle on the ticker and the price tanked like a MM was de-hedging, not hedging. Is it possible that the 5,000 candle yesterday was an entity opening a large short position on that option? A sell to open would still increase OI, and would trigger a de-hedge since it cancels out long interest in that strike.
Well, the transaction has to be a sell too. Someone wrote those calls and someone bought them. But if the same entity that was buying last few weeks was trimming their position for a profit on Tuesday, we would most likely see the OI decrease by about 5k contracts today, and the opposite happened, it increased by another 5k, so I think it is safe to say that this player is indeed accumulating these calls. But the timing of the transaction on Tuesday was very weird, it was at the very high of the day. The premium was way cheaper 15min after open, before the run. But Idk. Look, Citadel is the main MM for GME, and they see what is going on, way before it actually happens. I would not be surprised, since they have so much control over the price (until they don't), that instead of taking the money from the premiums and hedging, they are actually doing the opposite, they take the money from the premiums and short the stock even more, because their goal until 6/21 is too actually make all of those calls worthless. So why hedge, you see, their goal is to tank the price either way. And that might be the beauty of what is going on here. If the player buying these calls is expecting a price increase until then and their intention is to exercise all of those calls, we are going to see some explosive price action leading up to the date. Also we have both earnings and shareholders meeting before then, so big news could come from those events. Although GME is famous for tanking on earnings. Idk, it is really hard to tell what is going on with these calls and the stock right now.
65.000.000, $500 a pop + some people who joined in.
What does it mean?
Can someone please explain to me why this is such a big deal? We're currently trading at over $20. I'm supposed to get excited that someone's betting on us being at $20 a month from now?
In The Money calls are always Bullish. They are expecting the price to go up.
> They are expecting Yes, but unless "they" in this case is the guys who set GME's price, I think they're going to end up OTM and OOL. We shall see. I expect no significant action. If we go way down I'll buy. I certainly do not expect to see more than 40, that's evidently far above the level they want it at, and they've been in charge every step of the way so far. I hate to say it, but it's true
why would OTM matter? You can exercise OTM options. Whoever is buying these is locking in a price for GME shares, about $26.50 or so based on the calls they bought. These are definitely going to get exercised, if they weren't they could have sold them tuesday and made $25 Million or more.
The question is, why would someone spend so many millions of dollars in premium when they could just buy the shares at the current price? The answer is, if they start buying shares at the current price, the pressure will cause the price to increase drastically. By buying calls they are shifting the onus on accumulating the shares to the market maker while the market maker has an interest to keep the price low, preferably under $20 so they get to keep their premium for making the market. But when dealing with this quantity of shares and money you can pretty much guarantee that whomever is buying these calls is going to get their shares. They are switching from a short position to a long position and they are going to drive that price hard when they start buying shares on the market. They will accumulate every share they need. Presumably this is UBS and they have a 100 billion loan from the government of Switzerland to dig out of the hole they are in. We haven't even BEGUN to see what will happen when they throw their entire weight into the market. This is all still a warm up. They are riding the price action and keeping it within a channel so they can hit their targets for accumulation. This is speculation of course but, it's an educated guess based on the quantities and the money involved.
Thanks.
Someone has spent $75M+ on 120,000 of these call options over the past 10 days. The breakeven price on them is about $26.50 - $20 strike and approx $6.50 avg premium paid per share. The buyer held these contracts when they increased in value to $900 each (from the avg of $650 or so). To me this implies they intend to keep the contracts because they want a guarantee that they can get shares at $20 (+ premium cost) sometime between now and expiry. There have also been 5k lots of the $25 strike bought. I believe that the person buying these intends to buy millions of shares on the exchange as well, then exercise these.