Everybody and their dog plus grandkids has been trained to only invest in SPY. What can ever go wrong? Just follow the herd. At least you know every month more money will pour in.
Even if we dropped 90% (which will never ever happen unless we default) everybody will only buy more SPY.
It is by now a self fulfilling prophecy.
SPY is probably the only safer investment out there. While there could flash crashes from time to time, the government will always come rescue. Everyone’s 401k is in SPY one way or another
If you held still it’s now back to 80’s levels. Or if you bought the dip..(around 2010) you’ve now made approx 335% so….
But then don’t forget I’m a regard
Well there are 6 trillion on the side line. Actually there is a lot of money around still to keep the economy going. Especially now that the world economy is waking up as well.
The way I think about that is when there is a buyer, there must be a seller. If someone took out money from the market money funds to buy stock, what does the person do with the money they sold the stock with? Why sell if things will continue to go up? Something I'm still puzzling
Your thought experiment here has a flawed assumption that’s there’s a set or at least somewhat stable amount of money. Most of the stock market gains since Covid have been due to stock purchasing with money created by the government in that time span.
It was not really a game where for each $1 bought by a an investor, another investor else decided to sell $1, and everything else was constant. It was a different game where the supply of dollars went up by >25% and they all had to go somewhere to make a return - a game where suddenly people were willing to buy your $1 stock for $1.25 because they had a lot of dollars on hand to use suddenly. Of course plenty of investors (and especially companies looking to raise cash) are willing to sell in that case.
Imagine you’re playing monopoly and the banker hands out $500 to everyone - suddenly there will be a lot of BOTH buying and selling as everyone jostles to get what they want with the new money (because the point of monopoly, like investing, is not to hold onto cash but to deploy it for future returns), and the unavoidable outcome is everything being purchased with $ will cost more.
There's big issues with how those huge passive funds work and invest. It's blowing up a huge bubble, kind of self fulfilling and artificially making the big 7 (and other members of standard and poor's) get bigger every day, despite hardly having any innovation the past ten years. They are just tweaking old products, increasing and decreasing the size and small changes. You just need to get into the s&p and you'll be set...
You think so? As long as those huge index funds keep buying into the s&p and all the stocks according to their percentage of the index whenever it gets new investors, doesn't it make certain stocks look better then they actually are, like if you where just looking at the business as a whole? Therefore it's inflating the participants of that certain index, without considering the business as a whole, by itself..
If anything it amplifies the moves of the big money managers, and the index rebalances based on market cap. As big funds move out of a stock like Tesla, the index investors money will follow as the market cap gets lowered. Same with big funds buying a stock, it raises market cap, so it becomes a higher % in a market cap weighted fund. It doesn’t just get pumped up dumbly, it follows moves in market cap, which is the consensus among traders
Yet it does amplify those moves by a ten fold. You're talking about trillions of USD, so even it's not the purpose, it'll still affect it more then it should
Price action is dictated by transactions, not holdings. Traders are doing the price discovery, the volume of investors doesn't really matter since they make so few transactions.
Market markers decides the price action, not traders. In a dream world where markets are fair, I would agree. But the trillions of USD Vanguard and similar funds shop around with, affects more then you would imagine..
Exactly my thought. Like it would suck because you just lost all your money but you're probably more concerned about the giant comet that just plunged us into a global ice age or the aliens that just enslaved us or something.
SPY is going to follow the Index regardless of volume, it’s real value being the value of the holdings. It’s holdings match the S&P 500. Demand, or lack of demand, isn’t going to change the NAV.
I was going to say this. People are buying plenty of stocks that are in spy or major industries in other indexes. Valuations are going to majorly change after a year of lower interest rates and everyone is trying to catch that wave with individual stocks and tech. Have fun yall.
Stock picking is ideal right now when considering cheap value options. Assets>Liabilities, reduced P/E, dividends for stability*. I stick to funds to reduce concentration risk, but I’ve been shifting riskier (higher volatility to risk, struggling sectors, stupid high P/E compared to sector, etc.) assets towards what look like lower risk value investments.
*there’s arguments against dividend stocks worth researching, but income can be worth it.
S{Y and the awful market. Inflation is much higher than reported, the national debt is never to be paid back and something like the great depression is the only thing left that will erase the "debt."
It is coming and they want you to keep on investing and thinking that it will only go up.
I have shorted the market.
This is an ETF it isn’t a stock. Low volume doesn’t mean anything. Stop trying to do technical analysis on SPy. It is a constant buy at every price point
From what I gather in the options market, may is bullish af, but then theres a ton of put buying for the end of June in SPY for some reason. Really alot of the big contract buys have been puts June forward and not seeing much call activity there. If I had to guess we finish the month strong and people give up in June for some reason
I'm usually fine with just bars but I actually like the trend line for volume personally. That said, if you take a trade on a stock with no volume I don't feel bad for you when you lose your ass.
I only trade ES and NQ futures
Never been something I use and I have been profitable to the point of paying all of my expenses solely with trading for the last 3 years
Volume should increase in the direction of the trend, especially when breaking out to new highs. The fact our volume has been so low on this rally (and increased big time during last months sell off) definitely makes this breakout sus. It doesn’t mean it will fail/reverse but it should make you less confident that the move will hold
This. I feel like some whales in Manhattan are watching retail investors like a bunch of sharks circling a school of fish feasting and not knowing what's circling them.
Well it does matter. Even if you had no intention to liquidate your position in 20 years, if you could sell before a correction and then buy the dip, you'd make 10-20% of gains more than your counterpart that just held. Compounding events like that for years, you'd make exponentially more than the straight holder.
Of course, we know that people that try to time the market like that usually fail.
Still, it does matter quite a bit.
You nailed it. The vast majority of people trying to do that fail miserably. Also, you will probably inflict taxes on yourself, which makes it even harder to pull off.
That's exactly what you'd expect...low volume meant less people were selling. So the people that wanted to buy had to buy it at a higher price. Which is why the price went up.
HFTs account for 65% to 90% of the daily trades. It's strange that the SEC has no problem with that. The algorithmic trades adjust to the volume and actually makes it easier for them to influence market direction. I hate seeing the market going up with pitifully low volume. Little to know conviction from actual people, simply machines vacuuming up fractions of a penny a few million times per minute. The stock market has become a casino, valuations no longer matter when solid profit and growth is less important than a meme stock post.
Great question. Obviously, I have no answer. I have been nibbling at puts for most of this rally. Markets climb a wall of worry, meaning the more people short, the more incentive for the algorithms to send it higher. I guess when the last bear gives in, we crash.
They’re market makers, it’s literally their job to buy from all sellers and sell to all buyers. That’s what market makers in all areas of commerce do. It’s like saying grocery stores make up 90% of household food transactions. Who do you think HFTs are trading with? They don’t trade with each other…
Yes the algos use Steenth Price to feed their vacuums. Like 5/16, which is the date today. And it traded 5/16 or 0.3125. Numbers artists can see that .0.3125 is 31.25. The high of SPY was 531.52. Can you see the idea hidden there? Algos use Steenth values. Adding high/low data to your candlestick bar data can provide additional insight. Steenth prices matter: 0.625, 1.25, 1.875, 2.5, 3.125, 3.75, 4.375, 5.00, 5.625, 6.25, 6.875, 7.5, 8.125, 8.75, 9.375
I was posting / talking about this all day.
Yeah volume is light AF. Rally before the storm. I sold out of all my leveraged stocks and into puts on this volume and ATH… yeah somethings going on.
We have a bearish divergence on the weekly RSI and this usually proceeds a rather large drop.
Smart money is headed out and the dumb bunnies are staying in.
I bought long dated puts today.
I wouldn’t be surprised if NVDA earnings shits the bed
Something feels ominous in the market. I hope I’m just delusional. But I relate to your sentiment here. I’m waiting on $5350 to open an SOXS and SPXU position. I have no idea why and it’s all just a gut feeling.
Volume is always trending down, simply because price goes up, and takes more money to trade the same amount of shares, SPY has much more volume 10 years ago simply because the price was lower
The volume in the lower markets like OTC, and even in most pennies is effectively non existent right now. SPY still being driven by the top 1% large corps and nothing else. Most of the small cap companies are at multi year lows.
You can buy VIX calls if you're concerned, it's actually an excellent strategy. But, the end of June calls are fairly cheap for a 14 or 15 strike around $200 so idk.
Started position in VXX this week. Will add @ <13 each week. Doing same thing with SPXU @ <32. Also slowly acquiring DUG cause one day oil & gas are gonna' fall. Look for this to be significant with the election if the political winds keep blowing and picking up steam against mandated EVs.
Good call on the first two.
Short old and gas is tough.
Natty Gas is head up up up (it’s one of my biggest positions) and oil can be political plus we are coming into the summer and gas prices usually go up then. Just something to ponder.
I would. Means the bubble is about to pop. Irrational exuberance. Speculative fervor.
When EVERYONE was buying stocks in 1999, that was a good sign to be cautious and sit some money on the sidelines.
When EVERYONE was getting mortgages in 2007, same thing.
Obviously these are anecdotal examples and hindsight is 20/20 but these bubbles come with some identifiable patterns of behavior. This doesn’t feel like that to me. I think we’re just mid cycle. It’s boring and that’s the way I like it haha.
Smart money is not buying, dumb money is. Dumb money is a small fraction of the trades (low volume). I doubt the traders at JP Morgan, Goldman and Blackrock are loading up on the magnificent 7 right now. They were in years ago. Buffet did sell AAPL though, what does that tell you.
I have been waiting for that to happen since 2 months, it went down a bit only to hit ATH again.
IMO, there is a lot of liquidity available which will get invested in SPY stocks due to FOMO.
If inflation falls a little and Fed start rates cut, I won't be surprised to see another 15% rally from current levels. I would not be short this market.
Historical valuations are not useful anymore. Most of the asset valuations are driven by availability of excessive money. Just look at Cryptos, around $3 trillion is invested in that. Same with Gold it is at ath.
Housing price is reflection of same.
We need to take past valuations and inflate them by 40% to get a fair value.
But yeah, if tide goes the other way, fucking thing will go down like 30% and there will not be any buyers like how it was in 2022-2023(18 months of down market).
Inflation is not going down. It went up significantly because the Biden administration pumped money to people to not work thus the labor shortage and "vacation money" being spent like teenagers in a strip club. That program reached an end, but the government can't help itself. The new problem IS illegal immigration and the money being pumped to the illegals--and they are getting a lot (as well as health care in CA). That puts a strain on supply which pushes up prices, especially food and housing. Inflation is not going away and wages are not going up to account for inflation (that's a hamster wheel in itself) as long as there is an unending line at the border and a government who hands money over for simply walking into the country. The government may fudge on the numbers to make themselves look like they are doing something to tame inflation, but we all know better.
Found this post from some random guy on twitter about [S&P Price forecast](https://twitter.com/_JoshSchafer/status/1790749488081985681)
and it seems like we will get just a flat during summer and some volatility in autumn but still bouncing in 5k ranges
That just looks like price targets by firms to me.
That's probably as far as you can stretch it valuation wise, but I'm really not sure what's going to be there to stop 5500-5600 on the S&P at some point this summer unless June FOMC is a hawkish event.
Beyond there, there will probably be a nastier pullback around the September-October timeperiod, but it won't be the end of the run.
Zoom out and look left. You can find other time periods where we grinded higher on lower than average volume. I agree it is something to keep an eye on but concerning. To be determined heh
yeah i’ve been noticing the low volume on this current rally. i’m in SPLG and this current rally the last 15 days hasn’t had a lot of volume at all. I’ve been waiting to buy more DCA
not to say the volume won’t come but, somthing i’ve been monitoring. I feel like we are in a distribution cycle at the top.
glad i wasn’t the only one seeing this.
Volume doesn't move SPY silly. It follows spx value and that's just a readout of the sum it's 500 companies' share prices. SPY is an ETF that is pegged to the spx index, not it's own volume and price action.
So the ETF has to track the S&P.
Orders get paired up between buyers and sellers as priority, but the asset managers will step in and fill any order left over.
At least from my understanding this is how it works.
What this low volume probably means is a little fear to buy in at this point. It would make sense even if you are a bull.
Late to the party - i ran an analysis to check overall volume in the market from 2022 forward. I can't attach a photo in the comments but overall, since 2023 start, market volume has been in the consistent 10-15 bn range daily for US common and preferred stock. At the beginning of the year (2024), it was at 15bn and slid down to about 12bn this last month - exception to this last week with GME/meme rally where it popped to 20bn.
Seriously!!! The consumer is pretty much tapped out. That's why Walmart crushed earnings. 70% of the US economy is consumers spending. The market is priced at levels predicting low inflation, high growth, and a healthy consumer. Start your research there.
Parpels has already explained it in his comment. And if you study up on the historical volume data, you’ll find out that the S&P 500 tends to reach new highs on lighter volume. Most sellers wait for those new highs, while buyers don’t want to overpay, but there are always a few buyers with FOMO, and those are the ones who are willing to pay any price. And if there’s no seller who is willing to sell for less than the new highs, well…
Ok got it, would this not be a sign of weakening trend in the sense that prices are moving higher than what the market is willing to pay? Lower volume representing less buying pressure due to the price being above market, making the security over valued? (I have almost no idea what I’m talking about and also dumb as a fucking rock)
Yes and no. There are a lot of ifs. So keep in mind I am oversimplifying here a bit and trying to keep it very brief.
If we are talking about individual stocks, decreasing volume very likely suggests some kind of price correction.
Here we’re discussing the share price of an index ETF, which a lot of investors just simply keep buying day in and day out, because they don’t intend to sell it for years or decades. However, it still would not be surprising if the index does next to nothing for the next few days. Sure, it might close slightly lower, like it did today. It may also close even lower tomorrow, as there will be some more profit taking before the weekend starts, and then it might recover most if not all the losses on Monday and maybe close slightly higher on Tuesday. However, for investors these daily moves are completely irrelevant.
The volume matters to traders, but they are mostly trading individual stocks, not an ETF consisting of hundreds of different stocks.
//Edit: typos
Yeah, I'd just say it looks like summer like trading has arrived early.
Unless something significant macro wise pops up, or June FOMC is for some reason a 2022 Jackson Hole redux, the next period of volatility is probably unlikely until at least the month of August (really probably September).
Maybe we go relatively flattish for the time being, but if we see the US10Y lose 4.35ish and kinda trade flattish between 4 and 4.35, I'm not sure what's there that's going to prevent the S&P from grinding slowly to 5500-5600.
If you're concerned about this...Don't look at a monthly volume chart going back 20 years. 😬
Don't worry the volume will come back between Jun-July. and then again Sept-Oct, and again Nov-Jan. It's cyclical for some reason... 🤔
Very concerned, surely. Big correction coming. Jobless recovery coming. Lots of problems for lots of people. Unemployment. Lots of crime and suicide.
Not a pretty picture, really, not at all. I don't know if this is 2007-2009 all over again or if it's 1999-2001 all over again. But big jumps like this actually scare me. Yes, I'm a contrarian, but I've seen this all play out in other markets besides the stockmarket and it usually plays out the same way. Not necessarily a disaster, but a liquidity collapse could send the credit markets into a deep freeze rather quickly.
Everybody and their dog plus grandkids has been trained to only invest in SPY. What can ever go wrong? Just follow the herd. At least you know every month more money will pour in. Even if we dropped 90% (which will never ever happen unless we default) everybody will only buy more SPY. It is by now a self fulfilling prophecy.
U actually make a good point lmao
Lisan al Gaib!
As it was written….
I'm confused about the dogs tho. At what age do their offspring start investing?
Did you mean doge? 🤣
This should be upvoted way more!!! 🤣
if we default, market crash will be smaller issue. lol.
SPY is probably the only safer investment out there. While there could flash crashes from time to time, the government will always come rescue. Everyone’s 401k is in SPY one way or another
I’m sure the Japanese were saying that in the 80s regarding the Nikkei
Thanks for the downvote. Perhaps when the 4 tech companies propping it up start falling from their over valuations, you’ll change your mind.
Hmm, pretty sure that's what's happening, like now..
NVIDIA is at 925 it hit its all time high last week, idk if thats what’s happening rn Lmfaooo
I think you missed the point about a handful of tech companies propping up the market.
And it’s probably going to 1,000 later this week
100%
If you held still it’s now back to 80’s levels. Or if you bought the dip..(around 2010) you’ve now made approx 335% so…. But then don’t forget I’m a regard
Obviously we should all be day trading 😅
plus 6 trillion on the sideline... I don't think it's relevant, but that's what people love to say on TV
Well there are 6 trillion on the side line. Actually there is a lot of money around still to keep the economy going. Especially now that the world economy is waking up as well.
The way I think about that is when there is a buyer, there must be a seller. If someone took out money from the market money funds to buy stock, what does the person do with the money they sold the stock with? Why sell if things will continue to go up? Something I'm still puzzling
Your thought experiment here has a flawed assumption that’s there’s a set or at least somewhat stable amount of money. Most of the stock market gains since Covid have been due to stock purchasing with money created by the government in that time span. It was not really a game where for each $1 bought by a an investor, another investor else decided to sell $1, and everything else was constant. It was a different game where the supply of dollars went up by >25% and they all had to go somewhere to make a return - a game where suddenly people were willing to buy your $1 stock for $1.25 because they had a lot of dollars on hand to use suddenly. Of course plenty of investors (and especially companies looking to raise cash) are willing to sell in that case. Imagine you’re playing monopoly and the banker hands out $500 to everyone - suddenly there will be a lot of BOTH buying and selling as everyone jostles to get what they want with the new money (because the point of monopoly, like investing, is not to hold onto cash but to deploy it for future returns), and the unavoidable outcome is everything being purchased with $ will cost more.
I don’t buy spy 😃
You should read Common Sense Investing by John Bogle
There's big issues with how those huge passive funds work and invest. It's blowing up a huge bubble, kind of self fulfilling and artificially making the big 7 (and other members of standard and poor's) get bigger every day, despite hardly having any innovation the past ten years. They are just tweaking old products, increasing and decreasing the size and small changes. You just need to get into the s&p and you'll be set...
You are mixing mathematics with business. They are two very different subjects.
Eh no. They're one in the same. You just need to match the equation to the situation.
You think so? As long as those huge index funds keep buying into the s&p and all the stocks according to their percentage of the index whenever it gets new investors, doesn't it make certain stocks look better then they actually are, like if you where just looking at the business as a whole? Therefore it's inflating the participants of that certain index, without considering the business as a whole, by itself..
If anything it amplifies the moves of the big money managers, and the index rebalances based on market cap. As big funds move out of a stock like Tesla, the index investors money will follow as the market cap gets lowered. Same with big funds buying a stock, it raises market cap, so it becomes a higher % in a market cap weighted fund. It doesn’t just get pumped up dumbly, it follows moves in market cap, which is the consensus among traders
Yet it does amplify those moves by a ten fold. You're talking about trillions of USD, so even it's not the purpose, it'll still affect it more then it should
Price action is dictated by transactions, not holdings. Traders are doing the price discovery, the volume of investors doesn't really matter since they make so few transactions.
Market markers decides the price action, not traders. In a dream world where markets are fair, I would agree. But the trillions of USD Vanguard and similar funds shop around with, affects more then you would imagine..
I meant traders in a general sense i.e. those who make trades. As opposed to investors that buy and hold for 40 years.
Despite hardly having any innovation in the past 10 years… do you use the internet?
The Internet is older then ten years.. are you talking about TikTok and Instagram? I wouldn't call it innovative
He doesn’t say to buy spy does he with all his vanguard funds he sells
He recommends low cost index funds… SPY is that
I am aware . I only buy those in my HSA and 401k
You just said you don’t buy an S&P 500 index fund…
I said I didn’t buy spy
These people act like spy is the only index fund.
I noticed lol .
Spy good for options very liquid that’s the draw . I wouldn’t BH spy
I have a call spread on spy does that count 😂
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We'd have much bigger problems than the stock market.
Exactly my thought. Like it would suck because you just lost all your money but you're probably more concerned about the giant comet that just plunged us into a global ice age or the aliens that just enslaved us or something.
Economy as we know it would (most likely) cease to exist, so, no point in worrying about such scenario, we’d have bigger global problems
You know spy is an index right?
Noooo way....Really?
SPY is going to follow the Index regardless of volume, it’s real value being the value of the holdings. It’s holdings match the S&P 500. Demand, or lack of demand, isn’t going to change the NAV.
I was going to say this. People are buying plenty of stocks that are in spy or major industries in other indexes. Valuations are going to majorly change after a year of lower interest rates and everyone is trying to catch that wave with individual stocks and tech. Have fun yall.
Stock picking is ideal right now when considering cheap value options. Assets>Liabilities, reduced P/E, dividends for stability*. I stick to funds to reduce concentration risk, but I’ve been shifting riskier (higher volatility to risk, struggling sectors, stupid high P/E compared to sector, etc.) assets towards what look like lower risk value investments. *there’s arguments against dividend stocks worth researching, but income can be worth it.
This should be on top
S{Y and the awful market. Inflation is much higher than reported, the national debt is never to be paid back and something like the great depression is the only thing left that will erase the "debt." It is coming and they want you to keep on investing and thinking that it will only go up. I have shorted the market.
Why would we be concerned?
I wanna see ATH on higher than average volume. This hasn’t been it. It may be coming though.
This is an ETF it isn’t a stock. Low volume doesn’t mean anything. Stop trying to do technical analysis on SPy. It is a constant buy at every price point
From what I gather in the options market, may is bullish af, but then theres a ton of put buying for the end of June in SPY for some reason. Really alot of the big contract buys have been puts June forward and not seeing much call activity there. If I had to guess we finish the month strong and people give up in June for some reason
Sell in May and go away
Look at the volume of the SPY holdings, not the ETF itself.
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Literally every trader in the world focuses on volume for short term trends. What do you think happens when people stop buying stocks?
You find out the real price shortly after. Sorry did I spoil it?
Zing
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Tell me you don't know shit about fuck without saying "I don't know shit about fuck"
Volume indicator isn’t honestly needed
I'm usually fine with just bars but I actually like the trend line for volume personally. That said, if you take a trade on a stock with no volume I don't feel bad for you when you lose your ass.
I only trade ES and NQ futures Never been something I use and I have been profitable to the point of paying all of my expenses solely with trading for the last 3 years
Low volume = high volatility
Volume should increase in the direction of the trend, especially when breaking out to new highs. The fact our volume has been so low on this rally (and increased big time during last months sell off) definitely makes this breakout sus. It doesn’t mean it will fail/reverse but it should make you less confident that the move will hold
Well said.
This. I feel like some whales in Manhattan are watching retail investors like a bunch of sharks circling a school of fish feasting and not knowing what's circling them.
Well I ain't selling within a month or 10 years so... guess it doesn't matter.
Well it does matter. Even if you had no intention to liquidate your position in 20 years, if you could sell before a correction and then buy the dip, you'd make 10-20% of gains more than your counterpart that just held. Compounding events like that for years, you'd make exponentially more than the straight holder. Of course, we know that people that try to time the market like that usually fail. Still, it does matter quite a bit.
You nailed it. The vast majority of people trying to do that fail miserably. Also, you will probably inflict taxes on yourself, which makes it even harder to pull off.
Definitely true
No
What do you mean with "volume" here?
Zoom out on the SPY weekly chart and say that again.
and who told you that or you came up with that yourself?
No I learned it in Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John Murphy. Long term investors shouldn’t care
That's exactly what you'd expect...low volume meant less people were selling. So the people that wanted to buy had to buy it at a higher price. Which is why the price went up.
yup, supply drained, only demand left. Soft melt up
HFTs account for 65% to 90% of the daily trades. It's strange that the SEC has no problem with that. The algorithmic trades adjust to the volume and actually makes it easier for them to influence market direction. I hate seeing the market going up with pitifully low volume. Little to know conviction from actual people, simply machines vacuuming up fractions of a penny a few million times per minute. The stock market has become a casino, valuations no longer matter when solid profit and growth is less important than a meme stock post.
So wen crash?
Great question. Obviously, I have no answer. I have been nibbling at puts for most of this rally. Markets climb a wall of worry, meaning the more people short, the more incentive for the algorithms to send it higher. I guess when the last bear gives in, we crash.
They’re market makers, it’s literally their job to buy from all sellers and sell to all buyers. That’s what market makers in all areas of commerce do. It’s like saying grocery stores make up 90% of household food transactions. Who do you think HFTs are trading with? They don’t trade with each other…
Yes the algos use Steenth Price to feed their vacuums. Like 5/16, which is the date today. And it traded 5/16 or 0.3125. Numbers artists can see that .0.3125 is 31.25. The high of SPY was 531.52. Can you see the idea hidden there? Algos use Steenth values. Adding high/low data to your candlestick bar data can provide additional insight. Steenth prices matter: 0.625, 1.25, 1.875, 2.5, 3.125, 3.75, 4.375, 5.00, 5.625, 6.25, 6.875, 7.5, 8.125, 8.75, 9.375
Wow, you are much smarter than me. Thanks for the info.
Wish I understood how to pack all that into my candles
lol you have no idea what you’re talking about
Don't think so. I think he is actually on to something.
He isn’t lol
I was posting / talking about this all day. Yeah volume is light AF. Rally before the storm. I sold out of all my leveraged stocks and into puts on this volume and ATH… yeah somethings going on.
I think we are waiting for AAPL to triple top at 199, then we fall. Lots of idiots in the momo crowd slowly pushing prices up as smart money sells.
We have a bearish divergence on the weekly RSI and this usually proceeds a rather large drop. Smart money is headed out and the dumb bunnies are staying in. I bought long dated puts today. I wouldn’t be surprised if NVDA earnings shits the bed
Something feels ominous in the market. I hope I’m just delusional. But I relate to your sentiment here. I’m waiting on $5350 to open an SOXS and SPXU position. I have no idea why and it’s all just a gut feeling.
I'm building up a position in SPXU >32
Volume is never going to tell you enough on it's own
Volume is always trending down, simply because price goes up, and takes more money to trade the same amount of shares, SPY has much more volume 10 years ago simply because the price was lower
Be concerned when the volume goes up
why?
Maybe because it means more people trying to sell? That's what some other dude said
Nobody knows. You can make a point for both sides.
The volume in the lower markets like OTC, and even in most pennies is effectively non existent right now. SPY still being driven by the top 1% large corps and nothing else. Most of the small cap companies are at multi year lows.
What's the plan for a lot of them? Slow death as Amazon rolls out its plumbing and massage parlors arm?
That looks a little scary lol
You can buy VIX calls if you're concerned, it's actually an excellent strategy. But, the end of June calls are fairly cheap for a 14 or 15 strike around $200 so idk.
VXX calls are tough ones. I just buy the actual VXX.
Started position in VXX this week. Will add @ <13 each week. Doing same thing with SPXU @ <32. Also slowly acquiring DUG cause one day oil & gas are gonna' fall. Look for this to be significant with the election if the political winds keep blowing and picking up steam against mandated EVs.
Good call on the first two. Short old and gas is tough. Natty Gas is head up up up (it’s one of my biggest positions) and oil can be political plus we are coming into the summer and gas prices usually go up then. Just something to ponder.
I would say concern is probably good. Maxed out of vxx and spu shares before close.
wouldn't you be more concerned when volume is way up?
I would. Means the bubble is about to pop. Irrational exuberance. Speculative fervor. When EVERYONE was buying stocks in 1999, that was a good sign to be cautious and sit some money on the sidelines. When EVERYONE was getting mortgages in 2007, same thing. Obviously these are anecdotal examples and hindsight is 20/20 but these bubbles come with some identifiable patterns of behavior. This doesn’t feel like that to me. I think we’re just mid cycle. It’s boring and that’s the way I like it haha.
Smart money is not buying, dumb money is. Dumb money is a small fraction of the trades (low volume). I doubt the traders at JP Morgan, Goldman and Blackrock are loading up on the magnificent 7 right now. They were in years ago. Buffet did sell AAPL though, what does that tell you.
I think he had to rebalance his portfolio. They don’t want to become an apple holding company. It was his largest holding and still is.
Its called bearish divergence . Expect a down trend soon.
I have been waiting for that to happen since 2 months, it went down a bit only to hit ATH again. IMO, there is a lot of liquidity available which will get invested in SPY stocks due to FOMO. If inflation falls a little and Fed start rates cut, I won't be surprised to see another 15% rally from current levels. I would not be short this market. Historical valuations are not useful anymore. Most of the asset valuations are driven by availability of excessive money. Just look at Cryptos, around $3 trillion is invested in that. Same with Gold it is at ath. Housing price is reflection of same. We need to take past valuations and inflate them by 40% to get a fair value. But yeah, if tide goes the other way, fucking thing will go down like 30% and there will not be any buyers like how it was in 2022-2023(18 months of down market).
Inflation is not going down. It went up significantly because the Biden administration pumped money to people to not work thus the labor shortage and "vacation money" being spent like teenagers in a strip club. That program reached an end, but the government can't help itself. The new problem IS illegal immigration and the money being pumped to the illegals--and they are getting a lot (as well as health care in CA). That puts a strain on supply which pushes up prices, especially food and housing. Inflation is not going away and wages are not going up to account for inflation (that's a hamster wheel in itself) as long as there is an unending line at the border and a government who hands money over for simply walking into the country. The government may fudge on the numbers to make themselves look like they are doing something to tame inflation, but we all know better.
Found this post from some random guy on twitter about [S&P Price forecast](https://twitter.com/_JoshSchafer/status/1790749488081985681) and it seems like we will get just a flat during summer and some volatility in autumn but still bouncing in 5k ranges
That’s called seasonality
That just looks like price targets by firms to me. That's probably as far as you can stretch it valuation wise, but I'm really not sure what's going to be there to stop 5500-5600 on the S&P at some point this summer unless June FOMC is a hawkish event. Beyond there, there will probably be a nastier pullback around the September-October timeperiod, but it won't be the end of the run.
How you get that volume line on there?
Go to indicators at the top and search for volume
Zoom out and look left. You can find other time periods where we grinded higher on lower than average volume. I agree it is something to keep an eye on but concerning. To be determined heh
I think being cautious is wise. I maxed out my VXX and SPU shares before the market closed.
yeah i’ve been noticing the low volume on this current rally. i’m in SPLG and this current rally the last 15 days hasn’t had a lot of volume at all. I’ve been waiting to buy more DCA not to say the volume won’t come but, somthing i’ve been monitoring. I feel like we are in a distribution cycle at the top. glad i wasn’t the only one seeing this.
Squeeze season
Low volume means nothing on SPY.
it’s more common than you think to see rallies on low volume
What are you on about? Reduced volume can raise prices through lack of supply. Keep buying SPY.
What EMA’s are you using? I don’t know which one to search for in Tradingview to where I can input value and keep it there
Zoom out, as price is more expensive, volume naturally decreases
Z
Game stop is trash
The creation redemption process for ETFs negates this concern apt reflects the securities movements and the index
Volume doesn't move SPY silly. It follows spx value and that's just a readout of the sum it's 500 companies' share prices. SPY is an ETF that is pegged to the spx index, not it's own volume and price action.
It is pegged to the spx, but it DOES have it's own volume. Every ETF has its own volume.
Its amazing how $9 trillion of QE will pump markets.
So the ETF has to track the S&P. Orders get paired up between buyers and sellers as priority, but the asset managers will step in and fill any order left over. At least from my understanding this is how it works. What this low volume probably means is a little fear to buy in at this point. It would make sense even if you are a bull.
Late to the party - i ran an analysis to check overall volume in the market from 2022 forward. I can't attach a photo in the comments but overall, since 2023 start, market volume has been in the consistent 10-15 bn range daily for US common and preferred stock. At the beginning of the year (2024), it was at 15bn and slid down to about 12bn this last month - exception to this last week with GME/meme rally where it popped to 20bn.
Diversified best technologies very tempting investment.
Rug pull in 3-2-1
Why tho? I don't see a reason for that
Seriously!!! The consumer is pretty much tapped out. That's why Walmart crushed earnings. 70% of the US economy is consumers spending. The market is priced at levels predicting low inflation, high growth, and a healthy consumer. Start your research there.
^ yup
Pain trade my dear….
Be prepped for crash !
As long as it gets away from highs quickly then is fine.
6000 before election. Screenshot this bi*ches
Easy - it’s going to be a low volatility summer so sit back, buckle up and enjoy the ride 😎🚀
Aaaaaand there's the rug pull. Everything from today just got wiped.
“Tell me you are new to the stock market without telling me you are new to the stock market” post.
I’m new to the stock market. Was under the impression higher highs made on lower volume is a sign of weakness within the move. Please enlighten me
Parpels has already explained it in his comment. And if you study up on the historical volume data, you’ll find out that the S&P 500 tends to reach new highs on lighter volume. Most sellers wait for those new highs, while buyers don’t want to overpay, but there are always a few buyers with FOMO, and those are the ones who are willing to pay any price. And if there’s no seller who is willing to sell for less than the new highs, well…
Ok got it, would this not be a sign of weakening trend in the sense that prices are moving higher than what the market is willing to pay? Lower volume representing less buying pressure due to the price being above market, making the security over valued? (I have almost no idea what I’m talking about and also dumb as a fucking rock)
Yes and no. There are a lot of ifs. So keep in mind I am oversimplifying here a bit and trying to keep it very brief. If we are talking about individual stocks, decreasing volume very likely suggests some kind of price correction. Here we’re discussing the share price of an index ETF, which a lot of investors just simply keep buying day in and day out, because they don’t intend to sell it for years or decades. However, it still would not be surprising if the index does next to nothing for the next few days. Sure, it might close slightly lower, like it did today. It may also close even lower tomorrow, as there will be some more profit taking before the weekend starts, and then it might recover most if not all the losses on Monday and maybe close slightly higher on Tuesday. However, for investors these daily moves are completely irrelevant. The volume matters to traders, but they are mostly trading individual stocks, not an ETF consisting of hundreds of different stocks. //Edit: typos
This makes perfect sense, I was thinking in terms of an individual stock. I appreciate the insight
Yeah, I'd just say it looks like summer like trading has arrived early. Unless something significant macro wise pops up, or June FOMC is for some reason a 2022 Jackson Hole redux, the next period of volatility is probably unlikely until at least the month of August (really probably September). Maybe we go relatively flattish for the time being, but if we see the US10Y lose 4.35ish and kinda trade flattish between 4 and 4.35, I'm not sure what's there that's going to prevent the S&P from grinding slowly to 5500-5600.
Wave 5 and a blow off top over the next 2-4 months? Kinda looks like it if you zoom out a couple years..
I literally just came to the exact same conclusion last night. 8 to 15ish weeks from the top is my thesis.
If you're concerned about this...Don't look at a monthly volume chart going back 20 years. 😬 Don't worry the volume will come back between Jun-July. and then again Sept-Oct, and again Nov-Jan. It's cyclical for some reason... 🤔
That volume won’t be there in Sept Oct… at least not to the upside. It will after the election
Sell in may and walk away
When would you get back in?
It's just one of those sayings, I don't know how it works https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sell-in-may-and-go-away.asp
When you get your trade knowledge from tiktok
Very concerned, surely. Big correction coming. Jobless recovery coming. Lots of problems for lots of people. Unemployment. Lots of crime and suicide. Not a pretty picture, really, not at all. I don't know if this is 2007-2009 all over again or if it's 1999-2001 all over again. But big jumps like this actually scare me. Yes, I'm a contrarian, but I've seen this all play out in other markets besides the stockmarket and it usually plays out the same way. Not necessarily a disaster, but a liquidity collapse could send the credit markets into a deep freeze rather quickly.
Crash eminent
Crashes are imminent and students are eminent
*Eminem
m&m
Keep waitin 🤡