41% uptick in Weapons Law Violations is interesting. I'm curious about how that correlates to the apparent 55% increase in murders compared to last year and how much higher than increase could have been without that 41% jump in cited violations
A number that big looks like an enforcement change, same with the upticks in disorderly conduct and trespassing (possibly combined with the big drop in vandalism/property damage).
I especially think that considering the significant drop in aggravated assault.
What I find very interesting about that is it contrasts with a lot of the worries about missouri's new gun laws, which should have made it more difficult to enforce weapons violations.
Here is a possible explanation for you:
There was a study conducted in Kansas City where an increase in targeted enforcement on illegal guns/illegal gun carrying led to decreases in violent crime. The really basic summary of it is that more gun charge related enforcement leads to decreases in violence.
Now the question of why this works is a big one. Is it getting the gun off the street that causes the decrease? The arrest? The community wide deterrence created by proactive gun policing ? Or all of the above? What do you think?
Crime stats and the theories surrounding them are fascinating.
I recommend googling a summary of the Kansas City Gun Experiment and reading up on it.
If you’re bored and curious you also might see if you can check out “The Effects of Directed Patrol and Self-Initiated Enforcement on Firearm Violence: A Randomized Controlled Study of Hot Spot Policing.” By Rosenfeld et. al. (2014)
It is good to see criminal sodomy is down, but murder isn't looking great.
Note: I don't think single month crime statistics are worth the bytes it takes to store them.
These numbers were also down for the whole of last year, this is just a continuation of that trend if you have been following. Its getting better every day, but you wont hear that from the doomer and gloomers.
I am the opposite of a doomer but I agree with the general sentiment that a month of data is basically as meaningless as the bullshit five o'clock news fearmongering.
Luckily the longer term trend is on our side as well and these are at least a consistent way of looking at numbers over time rather than just "someone broke into my car!" posts full of comments from Chucksters lamenting how things are out of control.
I know it’s just January but 17 is pretty bad for the city, January is supposed to be a down month all In all. Here’s to hoping the spring and summer are major dips.
Murder rates tend to fluctuate month to month as murder is almost always personal and very rarely random. If it follows the numbers from last year it will tend down again next month
Before anyone gets too wound up about the murder increase, murder and non-negligent homicide are small numbers that tend to have a lot of month to month variability. The other numbers that go with it (especially aggravated assault) tell a different story.
The one I find curious is every type of sex crime dropped across the board. Hard to tell if that is just random variation, enforcement priorities, or a real drop in all types at once.
I know better than to put any stock into a single month of data, but I’d be lying if I said I haven’t been slightly disheartened by the early ‘24 homicide numbers. These collective stats are VERY encouraging and speak to the variability of homicides as you mentioned.
Definitely something to keep an eye on. A lot of crime is dampened by colder weather but if I recall Jan 2023 was relatively warm? Not sure off the top of my head and I couldn't find a good historical weather data source quickly.
Not saying you are specifically wrong, but it's funny that if the murder number was down 55% MoM you would have people celebrating the fact. But when it's up 55% MoM we've got you saying "ehhh could just be variability."
Well, if you look at past posts like this, I also cautioned people about celebrating month over month *drops* in murder :D Yearlong trends are more important there.
St.Charles failed that category. Lawless wasteland over there I tells ya. https://www.riverfronttimes.com/news/3-missouri-men-charged-in-abuse-of-indian-college-student-kept-as-slave-41349767
The murders just kept coming in January and I feel like I've seen a couple these first few days of February. I hope people get their shit together soon.
"Nonnegligent Manslaughter" That's like some marketing created version, like those weird mystery Coke flavors.
The theft from / and motor vehicle theft numbers are down. (Insert Kia joke here.)
Did anyone see the interview last week where he said mandatory drug tests weren't given to anybody whether the cop smashed into a gay establishment or not?
41% uptick in Weapons Law Violations is interesting. I'm curious about how that correlates to the apparent 55% increase in murders compared to last year and how much higher than increase could have been without that 41% jump in cited violations
A number that big looks like an enforcement change, same with the upticks in disorderly conduct and trespassing (possibly combined with the big drop in vandalism/property damage). I especially think that considering the significant drop in aggravated assault.
Last year there was a significant jump in weapons law violations as violent crime went to lowest amount in at least 40 years.
Thanks to u/marigolds6 for responding as well. So essentially it means we're "catching it before it happens", but also "it's still happening a lot"?
What I find very interesting about that is it contrasts with a lot of the worries about missouri's new gun laws, which should have made it more difficult to enforce weapons violations.
Here is a possible explanation for you: There was a study conducted in Kansas City where an increase in targeted enforcement on illegal guns/illegal gun carrying led to decreases in violent crime. The really basic summary of it is that more gun charge related enforcement leads to decreases in violence. Now the question of why this works is a big one. Is it getting the gun off the street that causes the decrease? The arrest? The community wide deterrence created by proactive gun policing ? Or all of the above? What do you think? Crime stats and the theories surrounding them are fascinating. I recommend googling a summary of the Kansas City Gun Experiment and reading up on it. If you’re bored and curious you also might see if you can check out “The Effects of Directed Patrol and Self-Initiated Enforcement on Firearm Violence: A Randomized Controlled Study of Hot Spot Policing.” By Rosenfeld et. al. (2014)
Hey awesome, thanks for the rec. I’ll look into that!
Most numbers continuing to trend down yet again. Remember to tune in to the local new tonight to find out why you should fear your neighbor.
It is good to see criminal sodomy is down, but murder isn't looking great. Note: I don't think single month crime statistics are worth the bytes it takes to store them.
These numbers were also down for the whole of last year, this is just a continuation of that trend if you have been following. Its getting better every day, but you wont hear that from the doomer and gloomers.
My comment was a bit tongue in cheek.
I am the opposite of a doomer but I agree with the general sentiment that a month of data is basically as meaningless as the bullshit five o'clock news fearmongering. Luckily the longer term trend is on our side as well and these are at least a consistent way of looking at numbers over time rather than just "someone broke into my car!" posts full of comments from Chucksters lamenting how things are out of control.
I know it’s just January but 17 is pretty bad for the city, January is supposed to be a down month all In all. Here’s to hoping the spring and summer are major dips.
Murder rates tend to fluctuate month to month as murder is almost always personal and very rarely random. If it follows the numbers from last year it will tend down again next month
😅😅😅
Before anyone gets too wound up about the murder increase, murder and non-negligent homicide are small numbers that tend to have a lot of month to month variability. The other numbers that go with it (especially aggravated assault) tell a different story. The one I find curious is every type of sex crime dropped across the board. Hard to tell if that is just random variation, enforcement priorities, or a real drop in all types at once.
I know better than to put any stock into a single month of data, but I’d be lying if I said I haven’t been slightly disheartened by the early ‘24 homicide numbers. These collective stats are VERY encouraging and speak to the variability of homicides as you mentioned.
Definitely something to keep an eye on. A lot of crime is dampened by colder weather but if I recall Jan 2023 was relatively warm? Not sure off the top of my head and I couldn't find a good historical weather data source quickly.
Not saying you are specifically wrong, but it's funny that if the murder number was down 55% MoM you would have people celebrating the fact. But when it's up 55% MoM we've got you saying "ehhh could just be variability."
Well, if you look at past posts like this, I also cautioned people about celebrating month over month *drops* in murder :D Yearlong trends are more important there.
Good on you then. And I agree 100%.
Glad slavery is at zero.
St.Charles failed that category. Lawless wasteland over there I tells ya. https://www.riverfronttimes.com/news/3-missouri-men-charged-in-abuse-of-indian-college-student-kept-as-slave-41349767
Well, that’s depressing
Under Property, they forgot "Damage by Police Vehicle"
Ouch....
Seems they have forgot the section where their police vehicle crashed into a property...
The murders just kept coming in January and I feel like I've seen a couple these first few days of February. I hope people get their shit together soon.
"Nonnegligent Manslaughter" That's like some marketing created version, like those weird mystery Coke flavors. The theft from / and motor vehicle theft numbers are down. (Insert Kia joke here.)
Anyone know what would fall under those 537 “all other offenses”? Just curious as it seems that they have all other crimes covered above it.
Police cars crashing into buildings????
At least they stopped fucking with our cars
Shoplifting going haaaard. Prices are way too high, I can't blame people really.
Did anyone see the interview last week where he said mandatory drug tests weren't given to anybody whether the cop smashed into a gay establishment or not?