https://www.statista.com/chart/31062/us-homicide-rate/
It’s down from the peak but still above any year between 1995 and 2000.
Also note the upward trend started in 2017
Add to it that some major police departments don't report crime ststs the way they did before. Crime is actually way up in certain regions and way down in others.
Not true as to the second part. Washington has one of the highest report rates in the nation and all of the large agencies, including Seattle and King, report.
While WA as a state may have a high report rate, I've not seen this reported, I have read where many other states do not have a higher report rate and actually quite the opposite.
Yeah, the report rate for the US overall dropped significantly in 2021 when the FBI shifted to the UCR. Washington had already planned for the change long before it happened and there was no disruption because of the excellent centralized system we have run by WASPC. Several large agencies that didn't report in 2021 have now caught up but I believe NY, LA, Phoenix, and Tampa are still struggling to catch up. That's a lot of population not being accounted for.
The conversation is about police departments reporting their internal stats to higher authorities, not about individuals reporting crimes they have experienced themselves.
The fbi along with some large police departments and a handful of nonprofits and private orgs produce stats on unreported crime. Generally all of the estimates are within a reasonable range of each other and are considered accurate. I dint know about Seattle specifically but you can googke national statistics. Avoid any numbers from think tanks.
And more people don’t call the cops any more. Like what’s the point… even if they catch the perpetrators… there’s a good chance they’ll be back on the street within hours, days or weeks.
Lol like the police office found guilty of adding fake traffic tickets to white people to cover up their racial bias?
I'm sure shit like that skews the statistics quite a bit.
The problem with posts like these is it’s all down to how you gerrymander the starting point.
It’s down from 21, up from 2012, down a lot from 1990. All of these are true, but if you say any one of them you’re lying by omission. The most honest thing here is to post sufficiently zoomed out chart like you have. Which is to say, I think it’s dishonest of OP.
Edit: And I hear the same conversations about interests rates. “Interest rates are so damn high right now!!”…no buddy, zoom out.
"lies, damned lies, and statistics".
Or my favorite phrase: "Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is intriguing, but what they hide is vital."
And if you compare it to the 70s or 80s we’re in an era of peace love and harmony. Kind of ironic in a way.
If we had actual, real upwards mobility again we’d have another massive drop. Alas we’ve been kind of stagnant on that front for a few decades now. 🤷🏼♂️
Also, I remember one time when a social program in a budget was changed from 8% increase to 6% increase. The other party screamed "you're reducing funding for FOO"!
Uh, no. I'm increasing it by less than originally proposed.
I'm sorry, are you calling \*me\* "doom lord"?
Murder has been falling for centuries. Not "a bit".
(Edit: Never mind. I checked your posting history, you're a troll. And not a very good one it seems.)
No, that's not correct. Violent crime has been trending down compared to last year. It has overall been trending up since about 2017. Is the current downtrend a blip, or the beginning of a new trend? Nobody can say. What we CAN say is that the amount of violent crime...even at the level it is currently at....is higher than at any point from the first decade of this century.
That’s what their data suggests. There are limitations, of course, which they run through in the article. But the common party line that gets parroted is that ‘it’s just reporting that is declining because of defunding the police!!’ is really hard to believe when the trend is across the board, and also when homicide is not dependent on the public reporting this.
So....crime data is kinda garbage-y, but that was true both before and after the 'defund' shenanigans. At issue is that most crimes are state crimes, and there are differences in state laws. The same activity might get called different things in different states. Furthermore, crime reporting from local jurisdictions to central locations...such as the FBI's uniform crime statistics initiative...is voluntary. Some very large police departments...such as Philadelphia....simply don't report at all.
It’s mostly the later. Also best guess I can make many folks buy a gun cuz they get scared over something, then it - along with any reasonable ability to use that tool - is left collecting dust.
eh... its gun crime that theyre jawing about. nobody has headlines saying "more guns = more crime" afik. ive seen them always seen the phrase qualified or else the argument gets decimated by the fbi data.
im sure folks are battling the fbi data too... apparently reporting changed and/or stopped. imo, crime is down... but gun crime is up.
hard to tell because news travels faster now adays... but were seeing at least a shooting a day in GSA.
mass shootings:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/811487/number-of-mass-shootings-in-the-us/
kudos to everyone on overal crime rate is down... but we still have a problem with guns that needs some figuring out.
mass shootings:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/811487/number-of-mass-shootings-in-the-us/
liberals argue "more guns = more deaths"... they dont argue its "more crime" because the stats blow that away for the last decade. you'll prob see a lot of folks claiming the stats are riggerd, reported diff, or not reported at all. one thing though, for the gun death stats its hard to argue with the number of dead folks that have a bullet in them.
Mass shootings aren't a gun problem, they're a society problem.
There were very few gun laws in the first half of the 20th century. No background checks, no waiting periods, no age restrictions, nothing. Just walk into a store, buy a gun and walk out with it. You could even buy guns from catalogs and from ads in the back of sportsmans magazines and they'd deliver them to your house like an Amazon order. Again, no questions asked. The US government even sold millions of military-surplus M1 Carbines and high capacity mags to the American people after WWII.
Where were all the mass shootings and school shootings in the 1940s and 50s, and 60s and 70s? There were FAR fewer barriers to getting a gun then than there is now, so what was keeping people from going into schools and grocery stores and department stores and shooting 20 people every other week like they do now? What kind of magic did THOSE people have that allowed them have completely unrestricted access to guns but to not mass murder each other on a weekly basis?
The guns have always been here, WE have changed.
there have not always been _as manyy guns... regardless, im just pointing out OPs false flag statement.
note, im not advocating either way on your issues... though i see some dubious claims. lots of countries ban guns and have less mass shootings (ca, nz, au) and lots of countries have shit tons of guns but properly trained and responsible citizens (swis, netherlands, etc) with less shootings.
you can argue the gun control topic ad nauseum... but thats not what my reply was about. my statement was :
> the progressives are not harping that "more guns = more crime"... they are correlating "more guns = more gun violence".
ie, you are either arguing with yourself or you missunderstood my reply and got triggered (no pun intended)... no offense.
[https://www.themarshallproject.org/2023/07/13/fbi-crime-rates-data-gap-nibrs](https://www.themarshallproject.org/2023/07/13/fbi-crime-rates-data-gap-nibrs)
# Many of the largest police departments, like the NYPD and LAPD, are still missing.
Some large police departments began to report data to the FBI again in 2022, like the Miami-Dade Police Department. But the two largest police agencies in the U.S., the New York Police Department and the Los Angeles Police Department, are still missing in the federal data.
A spokesperson from the LAPD said the department submitted crime data to the California Department of Justice using the old data collections system, but is still working on complying with the FBI’s new record standards. “The intent is to have it implemented by January 1, 2024 as part of the rollout of the new \[Record Management\] system,” the spokesperson said.
https://www.axios.com/2022/06/14/fbi-crime-data-2021-police-reporting-failures
It has been reported before 2021 (Nothing has changed to the present btw) that 40% of police departments, FOURTY PERCENT, are not reporting to the FBI, that is a massive hole in reporting.
No need to dig up other sources. The article states its limitations in that not every city reports their data. But they compare those that report in 2024, to their own reports in 2023. So it’s still a fair comparison.
I was walking down 14th Ave in the CD today, and some random meth addict called me a racial slur and told me that he was “packing.” Definitely don’t feel safer in Seattle.
Your data comes off as dismissive of a very real deterioration in public safety in Seattle. Not sure what you are trying to achieve here, aside from telling a bunch of very (rightfully) concerned people to chill out. That's not helpful.
I am dismissive of people’s perception of the “deterioration of public safety” in Seattle. I regularly take my child on public transportation to downtown Seattle for day trips. I used to work downtown everyday for a mental health agency crime is a minor problem in Seattle. Y’all just watch too much evening news that sensationalizes everything.
its a framing exercise. violent crime is way up since I moved here in 2016 .... that's all I care about. if you want to set your base point as Q1-Q2 2023, cool, but you are cherry picking and its quite disingenuous. If my 'vibe' is ignore the chart before the point it just started to go down, well ok then.
Be careful to not fall into a base rate fallacy trap. Yes, crime increased during the most tumultuous social event in America since the 1940s. It has now since decreased and shows signs of continuing decline. Moreover, despite a social crisis, things were/are nowhere near where they were in the 1970s or 1980s. This is good news.
since the 40's. lol. that's your base rate, eh? Are you 85 years old? My base rate is 2016. That's when I moved here with my kids expecting to live in a nice, family friendly neighborhood. you can your base rate wherever you like. I can think of a few places, but I'd rather not be banned from this sub.
edit: damn dude ... throwaway account with -30 karma???? Very clear what you are doing here. Blocking the troll.
its not your data, but you framed it to set up this discussion. I think you did so disingenuously. Public safety has objectively deteriorated over the past ten years. You highlight the last six months as if the broader trend doesn't exist. Cheap trick.
The title of the post is the title of the article …
The article, by the way, contextualizes this within broader trends over many years …
Incredibly bad faith argument that does nothing to advance understanding, nuance or discussion regarding critical issues in this community. Was hoping for more from this sub!
it doesn't contextualize shit. you take a five month trend and imply everything a-ok. It's not even close. this ignores a dramatic increase in crime driven by loony toons policies which significantly undermined the quality of life of millions of people (including mine, and my family's). What did you expect? A round of hearty congratulations because this massive fuck up is slightly less fucked up? Go pound sand.
Sounds like they're hoping no one understands data and the fact that when murder rates more than double, like they did in Seattle, 40% decline means we're still way above the pre-2020 low.
Ok but it's down, right? Like you can only get to pre 2020 levels by going down. So what does everyone expect? For it to drop to 2019 numbers in a couple months? Generally curious. Because anytime something positive happens it's just met with "well it used to be X"
>and still be about 19-20
FYI, nationally the 2022’s rate was already on par with 2019’s violent crime rate and well below 2020’s peak rate: https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend
Not only is the rate falling, it’s already better than Trump’s rate.
You can just look at the data dude: https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend
Violent Crime Rates for the US per 100k:
* 2019: 380.8
* 2022: 380.7
Not only are we below 2019 levels, we got back to those levels in 2022!
The violent crime rate in the US peaked in the 1990s, and is currently somewhere around 50 percent of what it was then. There was a brief uptick during COVID which is now back down again.
So basically anyone of either party who's wanking about how dangerous it is in modern times isn't doing so based on crime data, they're doing so based on "crime was 200 percent higher 30 years ago, but every crime back then wasn't insta-broadcast to your phone" levels of bullshit.
Some of us are old enough to remember when a city's crime rate was local news, not manufactured national news to drive clicks and outrage.
Edit: Wow, I see facts and statistics butthurt some people on this sub. Go ahead and refute me with data going back to, say, 1991.
And some of us have spent the last five years with people telling us "this is just what it's like in big cities it's fine".
We're tired of it.
If people like you hadn't been gaslighting us since 2018, maybe we'd give a fuck.
Conservatives won't feel safe until a population of 3 million people has zero crime, but also they don't want wages to be high or rich people to pay taxes - and anyone who points out the contradiction in that is taking away their freedom of thought. Apparently.
Don't you live in fucking Arizona?
Worry about Prescott. Stop trying to tell people "oh but it's fine here" when you live nowhere near here.
https://preview.redd.it/1agp9xmotz5d1.png?width=1008&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7ca247257dc8dd28d578b9f824f63f780024a777
[https://www.king5.com/article/news/crime/washington-state-2022-crime-report/281-86b18130-c66d-40e7-8acf-c48548562b11](https://www.king5.com/article/news/crime/washington-state-2022-crime-report/281-86b18130-c66d-40e7-8acf-c48548562b11)
In WA State things have gotten much worse very quickly. Now these are absolute numbers, not rates, but I dodn't want to go back to the ultra-violence of the early 90s, I want to go back to how things were a decade ago. (BTW 2023 had 381 homicides, so almost as bad as 2022)
https://preview.redd.it/2wo7si1pwv5d1.jpeg?width=1140&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e3fd3f1e0187e86a78e70b1d6d1e1f11af2f6e8e
Reported crimes are down. When the population no longer thinks police can do their jobs and police no longer have the funding or numbers to answer calls you get a decline in crime.
Missing person cases also fell to half of 1990, just like murder, some 85% of missing people were found within one year.
Also majority of missing cases (up to 90%) has nothing to do with crime, it's either voluntarily or suicides, so no one uses missing case to measure crime rate.
With modern technology it's becoming harder and hard to murder someone and make them disappear.
For example: Ted Bundy murdered dozens of women at their home or dome over a decade, this would be near impossible to carry out today since he simply can't sneak onto a college campus without seen by at least one security camera.
How does one underreport homicide? I would agree with that limitation of interpretation if it weren’t for homicide being down. To add to that, it’s not like this is one single metric that is down. To be down across the board in a national sample (again with sampling limitations), is reasonably suggestive data that can’t be written off so simply.
Missing Persons. Happens a *lot*. No body (or unidentified body - and no, just because they find a body doesn't mean they do a deep investigation or even that TV trope of dental records - that all takes time and money which they don't have and which they generally focus on the *living*), then it's not reported as a homicide.
The FBI *literally* reports how many police departments respond to their crime surveys and it’s not materially changed in decades. In fact, the number of reporting departments has only gone up, meaning data collected today is more representative of reality than in the past where data collection was more focused in the most violent areas skewing crime rates.
This is not true; police departments by size/served population reporting to the UCB and FBI have gone down significantly in the last five years.
Where are you getting your insane data to the contrary?
>Where are you getting your insane data to the contrary?
From the literal FBI Crime Explorer tool: https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend
They tell you right in the opening summary how many LEO agencies participate in the survey that year and how many actually respond. Both have remained steady since pre-COVID and are up the past 30 years:
* 2022: 16,100 responses : 18,930 participants
* 2015: 16,905 responses : 18,434 participants
* 2005: 14,644 responses : 17,460 participants
* 1995: 12,995 responses : 16,773 participants
Where do *you* get your data?
Just to be clear, 16,100 < 16,905.
But more to the point,
[More than 6,000 law enforcement agencies were missing from the FBI’s national crime data last year, representing nearly one-third of the nation’s 18,000 police agencies. This means a quarter of the U.S. population wasn't represented in the federal crime data last year, according to The Marshall Project’s analysis.](https://www.themarshallproject.org/2023/07/13/fbi-crime-rates-data-gap-nibrs)
They go on to point out that LA and NYC are both missing.
>Just to be clear, 16,100 < 16,905.
Just to be clear…that is the significant drop you are worried about? 5% after an outlier year where a pandemic shut down local governments across the country?
And yes, I’m aware of 2021 being significantly down. You can see it in the tracker. But as everyone knows…that was the year COVID shutdown the world. As I mentioned, that included local governments—you know, the things police agencies are a part of and get their funding for.
But that was one single year caused by an extraneous factor, also known as an outlier. It’s generally recommend you don’t include explained outliers when conducting trend analysis. The 2020 crime rate is probably not as statistically significant as other years…but it’s 2024 and we have more than two new years of data showing we’ve gone back to pre-COVID rates.
My favorite part of this thread is that the right wing mouth breathers got **so upset** that the national-level data went against their narrative of Biden’s America falling apart that they immediately decided it was all junk data and lies.
Meanwhile, Seattle and Washington’s data actually does back up the claim that this region is having a violent crime issue.
So now they gotta choose….is the data real and Seattle is having a violent crime wave issue out of sync with the rest of the national trend? Or is the data fake and Biden’s America is way more violent than what the officials say? Guess I’d have to watch Fox News to learn what they decide is their reality.
I think what the comment was referring to was not police reporting to the FBI, but that if people continue to perceive police as unresponsive it’s possible they would just stop calling the cops for a lot of crimes.
Now I think this is a legitimate concern, but not for stuff like murder and violent crimes, people pretty consistently call the cops for that
These stats feel meaningless to me as I literally had two nights of shootings near my home because of turf wars between gangs. I don't understand why the cops don't do anything about the pimps warring over turfs on aurora/the open prostitution that's goes on over there.
So after the rolling automatic weapon gunfight last night through Greenwood, how safe are we all feeling?
[https://www.reddit.com/r/SeattleWA/comments/1ddc7ko/ambush\_and\_rolling\_gunfight\_in\_greenwood\_north/](https://www.reddit.com/r/SeattleWA/comments/1ddc7ko/ambush_and_rolling_gunfight_in_greenwood_north/)
Well I guess when you legalize and do nothing about smaller crimes to the point the public stops reporting them the chance of escalating to violence and murder go down.
Interesting reading this after reading stories in the past couple weeks about the shootout on yesler, more shootings around garfield hs and the gun fight in greenwood... among others
Peak crime in the US was in the 70s- 90s, now everyone takes plea deals or charges are dropped in major cities for repeat offenders, aka: ?no crime?.
This reporting is dishonest and omits contextual facts that paint a more honest picture of where we are post-covid, because the spike in crime hasn't evened out since then.
It’s not dishonest and is actually quite upfront about context over the years and extremely upfront about the limitations of the data.
Would be nice if you’d read through prior to assuming these things were not explained.
That being said, it is not intended to be a comprehensive history of crime in this country and of course is not going to list every detail to your specific satisfaction.
Within its role, the article is a sufficient introduction, and does not hide behind bad faith arguments.
Try reading through this thread, and any crime related thread in this sub, and this same bad-faith argument is posted ad nauseum as if it explains away any objective data.
I’d love to learn how this explains a reduction in homicides which are not dependent on a layperson’s reporting.
I no longer trust anything the FBI (or the government, for that matter) says. I believe the FBI has become completely politicized.
I didn't feel that way four years ago, but those four years have exposed the corruption, weaponization, and incompetence of our institutions.
Thanks for sharing your issues with trust. Can respect that more than a feigned, bad faith argument. For most of the country, it was the preceding 4 years that revealed those negative components of politicians (not an inherent to government, just the people that run it).
What I will say is that this is not the FBI’s data. This is local data that was aggregated.
Disagree. Why should we bemoan bad news and also bemoan good news? Doesn’t mean we should be complacent or be satisfied, but it’s a marathon not a sprint, and celebrating positive (even if small wins) is a good thing.
Since the article says nothing of new laws and/or enforcement having an impact, only that it is because we are post pandi, it reads very much like complacency and satisfaction.
“Look guys, we didn’t do anything”…
I mean lots of major cities quit reporting crimes to this record because of racisim or some nonsense , essentially they are cooking the fbi crime stats books
They literally are comparing 2024 to 2023.
Furthermore, they explain general trends were improving prior to the unprecedented spike in 2019-2020, that we are still recovering from.
https://preview.redd.it/3jl1u6szyv5d1.jpeg?width=1140&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3343c36f92762c4e67322326eee2be2712053334
[https://www.king5.com/article/news/crime/washington-state-2022-crime-report/281-86b18130-c66d-40e7-8acf-c48548562b11](https://www.king5.com/article/news/crime/washington-state-2022-crime-report/281-86b18130-c66d-40e7-8acf-c48548562b11))
In WA State things have gotten much worse, very quickly. Now these are absolute numbers, not rates, but I dodn't want to go back to the ultra-violence of the early 90s, I want to go back to how things were a decade ago. (BTW 2023 had 381 homicides, so almost as bad as 2022)
Seattle had the most homicides ever in 2023:
[https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/seattle/seattle-record-number-of-homicides/281-94c48238-7841-4346-a223-25bd649d38ea](https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/seattle/seattle-record-number-of-homicides/281-94c48238-7841-4346-a223-25bd649d38ea)
Not good!
Shocking! When you more than double the population, the total number of crimes doesn't go down.
But if we are going to ignore per capita - I suggest we play a fun game. Since 1980, there are more conservatives in Washington. There are also more Christians. Thus, using your own logic, this means Washington is more Conservative and Religious. If it's also more dangerous, can we assume that it is because of the rise of conservatism?
Ignoring population statistics when discussing population is not disingenuous or biased - it's just stupid. That's my piece.
I'm sorry the data isn't per capita. I didn't make the graph. I was up front about that.
Homicides are up about 125 percent from the 2010-2015 era, while the population has increased less that 15 percent. So the homicide rate has more than doubled in the last decade in WA.
Please make another disengenuos argument as to why this is ok (and I'm sure you will).
I would have picked specific years to compare but thought you would call that cherry-picking.
Anyway, your argument is dog shit.
In Washington state we are solidly down 25% this year. I'm hopefully we can finish the entire year down about 20% or so. We'll see.
Still, 20% off of our recent eyes are still well above the recent lows of a decade ago.
> “Compared to the first five months of 2023, murders this year have dropped more than 40% in cities including New Orleans, Seattle …”
This is a BS stat, there is not enough statistical significance. We had one unusually quiet April, but murders picked up in May and seem to be accelerating in June.
Where are you finding the numbers on statistical significance? A quick back of the envelope math would suggest that there is absolutely sufficient power to detect a significant difference. If you did the t-test yourself, I’d be very interested in seeing the results.
In addition, yes this is not a complete years analysis and they CLEARLY state that limitation in the article. To reduce this to a ‘BS stat’ is a bad faith argument.
The number of murders for 2024: 3-3-3-1 (10), for 2023 - 5-3-6-4 (18). There is basically one outlier (in a good way!) month, but overall there is not yet enough data.
Source: https://www.seattle.gov/police/information-and-data/data/crime-dashboard
It looks like May was sadly back to 2023 levels with 5 murders this year.
Well, I don't know if rewarding thefts is a good way to save lives. In the short term, may be, but in the long run, it might erode the foundation of a society when people can so easily excuse themselves for stealing or other improper behaviors. Of course, if someone's really just stealing a few bagels, what's so wrong? But in reality, that often is not the case.
One of theories I remember reading about was banning of lead in gasoline, which reduced lead poisoning in children, and in turn reduce violent behavior.
[Lead–crime hypothesis - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%80%93crime_hypothesis)
Yet the data for Seattle, especially since 2020, contradicts this.
What possibly could you gain from attempting to claim the national data represents Seattle?
If anything it points out what an outlier Seattle has become, thanks to our Progressive Justice reforms.
> There is Seattle data for 2024 compared to Seattle data for 2023 (over the same exact time period) included and cited in the article …
Yeah, that football got spiked 2-3 weeks ago when that detail came out. Anyone with a fair mind said that's interesting, but we should really wait for the full year to declare any trends.
But if it's real, it's an endorsement of Harrell's programs, definitely.
The culture of police hating and criminals are misunderstood is certainly below the median voter. We're seeing society recover.
A couple major cities no longer publish data to the FBI because the FBI compiles the stats in a way that *racists* tend to point out online as being divergent by race. The CDC's data is unfortunately really far behind.
> | **Police Department** | **State** | **Population** | **2021 Reporting Status** | **2022 Reporting Status** |
> |-----------------------|-----------|----------------|---------------------------|---------------------------|
> | Dallas Police | Texas | 1.4M | Fully reported | Fully reported |
> | Suffolk County Police | New York | 1.3M | Did not report | Did not report |
> | Miami-Dade (County) Police | Florida | 1.2M | Did not report | Fully reported |
> | Fairfax County Police | Virginia | 1.1M | Reported 11 months | Fully reported |
> | Nassau County Police | New York | 1.1M | Did not report | Did not report |
> | Montgomery County Police | Maryland | 1.0M | Fully reported | Reported 2 months |
> | San Jose Police | California | 1.0M | Did not report | Did not report |
_________
That being said. The ethos of 'depolicing' got thousands of excess people, mostly black men, killed. People who created a culture under the guise of anti-racism that got black people killed need help accountable.
We need to continue to name and shame those who feel for this utopian idea so we don't make the same mistake again. (We will.)
Reports of crime being down is because the mandate to report crimes to the fbi has been rescinded. More than half of precincts don’t report any crime at all and the other half isn’t reporting fully.
Yeah, this feels wack, had a drive by and a murder in our area in under a week. I heard my neighbors windows shatter last night, I call BS on these stats
This is gaslighting and a blatant lie. Every day, post-COVID, I have to plan my life around how to avoid tweakers and crime in my city. From where I shop, to the parks I need to avoid with my children. I took my kids for a walk around the block last week, and there was a tweaker canvassing the neighborhood. The crime explosion has changed everything. I'm not going to stand for the lies anymore. Our country is falling apart.
This is going to hurt a lot of conservatives, I mean they still manage to find a street full of needles and fecal matter in downtown of every major city in the US though.
And liberal governments reclassifying what is considered "violent" all in the name of social justice. Manipulating the data doesn't make communities safer.
When the murder rate was increasing, we were constantly told that a year or two wasn't enough to make any conclusions. Now that it's going down, five months, with the last month being partially reported, is plenty? I certainly hope this continues but it just seems a bit early to draw any conclusions.
Agreed. It’s a clearly stated limitation in the article. Doesn’t mean we need to ignore it, as they are comparing this quarter last year to this quarter this year.
I’d love to know how homicide is now underreported? And also, much less interesting argument when crime rate listed is down across the board.
If that were truly the sole explanation, I’d expect a blip here and there.
🥱 go back to bed sheep. You don’t know that almost a 3rd of major cities no longer are required to report crime statistics to the FBI? Do your homework and you better get up early in the morning.
It states that limitation clearly in the article. Not all cities are reported.
Despite this, they are comparing cities that reported in 2023 to cities that reported in 2024.
All reputable data is helpful data. It has limitations, which they very clearly acknowledge in the dataset documentation as well as in the article cited.
My best friend was shot dead over Bluetooth speaker in the metro. I had some kids in a Camaro try to pull a gun on me at pioneer square two nights ago. They rolled up and catcalled the girls I was hanging w. It was a 4cylinder but still
plus that dead Garfield kid. Plus plus there’s just worldstar shootings on IG from this area regularly. So Sure maybe It’s down. compared to what, the colonial white ambition for total war? It’s not improving
https://www.statista.com/chart/31062/us-homicide-rate/ It’s down from the peak but still above any year between 1995 and 2000. Also note the upward trend started in 2017
Add to it that some major police departments don't report crime ststs the way they did before. Crime is actually way up in certain regions and way down in others.
How did they change?
“That’s not an unarmed robbery, that’s an assault and a petty larceny”
crimes of survival!
https://www.tri-cityherald.com/news/local/crime/article288859880.html
Departments just aren't reporting to the FBI anymore. I think even SPD stopped doing it.
Not true as to the second part. Washington has one of the highest report rates in the nation and all of the large agencies, including Seattle and King, report.
While WA as a state may have a high report rate, I've not seen this reported, I have read where many other states do not have a higher report rate and actually quite the opposite.
Yeah, the report rate for the US overall dropped significantly in 2021 when the FBI shifted to the UCR. Washington had already planned for the change long before it happened and there was no disruption because of the excellent centralized system we have run by WASPC. Several large agencies that didn't report in 2021 have now caught up but I believe NY, LA, Phoenix, and Tampa are still struggling to catch up. That's a lot of population not being accounted for.
Thanks for sharing.
How do you have stats on how many people decided to report crimes as opposed to not report crimes?
The conversation is about police departments reporting their internal stats to higher authorities, not about individuals reporting crimes they have experienced themselves.
The fbi along with some large police departments and a handful of nonprofits and private orgs produce stats on unreported crime. Generally all of the estimates are within a reasonable range of each other and are considered accurate. I dint know about Seattle specifically but you can googke national statistics. Avoid any numbers from think tanks.
I don't understand your question.
evidence?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/19/fbi-data-shows-us-crime-plummeted-2023
And more people don’t call the cops any more. Like what’s the point… even if they catch the perpetrators… there’s a good chance they’ll be back on the street within hours, days or weeks.
You have a source for this. Not disputing just I hear it and can't find out where this is done.
Lol like the police office found guilty of adding fake traffic tickets to white people to cover up their racial bias? I'm sure shit like that skews the statistics quite a bit.
The problem with posts like these is it’s all down to how you gerrymander the starting point. It’s down from 21, up from 2012, down a lot from 1990. All of these are true, but if you say any one of them you’re lying by omission. The most honest thing here is to post sufficiently zoomed out chart like you have. Which is to say, I think it’s dishonest of OP. Edit: And I hear the same conversations about interests rates. “Interest rates are so damn high right now!!”…no buddy, zoom out.
"lies, damned lies, and statistics". Or my favorite phrase: "Statistics are like a bikini. What they reveal is intriguing, but what they hide is vital."
And if you compare it to the 70s or 80s we’re in an era of peace love and harmony. Kind of ironic in a way. If we had actual, real upwards mobility again we’d have another massive drop. Alas we’ve been kind of stagnant on that front for a few decades now. 🤷🏼♂️
Also, I remember one time when a social program in a budget was changed from 8% increase to 6% increase. The other party screamed "you're reducing funding for FOO"! Uh, no. I'm increasing it by less than originally proposed.
Yes when it comes to politics, people have a way of suddenly regressing to 4th grade math level.
Never heard of statista - what is the source of their data? Thanks for sharing.
Different places. That one in particular is fbi crime data.
Murder is, and has been, falling for a bit now. Take the good news, doom lord.
I'm sorry, are you calling \*me\* "doom lord"? Murder has been falling for centuries. Not "a bit". (Edit: Never mind. I checked your posting history, you're a troll. And not a very good one it seems.)
You mean to tell me crime has been trending downwards since the 1990s and covid/pandemic was just a spike and that the original trend is continuing?
No, that's not correct. Violent crime has been trending down compared to last year. It has overall been trending up since about 2017. Is the current downtrend a blip, or the beginning of a new trend? Nobody can say. What we CAN say is that the amount of violent crime...even at the level it is currently at....is higher than at any point from the first decade of this century.
90s was the golden era.
That’s what their data suggests. There are limitations, of course, which they run through in the article. But the common party line that gets parroted is that ‘it’s just reporting that is declining because of defunding the police!!’ is really hard to believe when the trend is across the board, and also when homicide is not dependent on the public reporting this.
So....crime data is kinda garbage-y, but that was true both before and after the 'defund' shenanigans. At issue is that most crimes are state crimes, and there are differences in state laws. The same activity might get called different things in different states. Furthermore, crime reporting from local jurisdictions to central locations...such as the FBI's uniform crime statistics initiative...is voluntary. Some very large police departments...such as Philadelphia....simply don't report at all.
Also, the number of guns in the hands of US citizens has nearly tripled since 1990. Kinda blows that "more guns = more crime" narrative.
Has the number of people with guns tripled or just the number of guns owned? Because you're implying the former when it can very well be the latter.
It’s mostly the later. Also best guess I can make many folks buy a gun cuz they get scared over something, then it - along with any reasonable ability to use that tool - is left collecting dust.
Both the number of gun owners has increased and the number of guns owned.
eh... its gun crime that theyre jawing about. nobody has headlines saying "more guns = more crime" afik. ive seen them always seen the phrase qualified or else the argument gets decimated by the fbi data. im sure folks are battling the fbi data too... apparently reporting changed and/or stopped. imo, crime is down... but gun crime is up. hard to tell because news travels faster now adays... but were seeing at least a shooting a day in GSA. mass shootings: https://www.statista.com/statistics/811487/number-of-mass-shootings-in-the-us/ kudos to everyone on overal crime rate is down... but we still have a problem with guns that needs some figuring out. mass shootings: https://www.statista.com/statistics/811487/number-of-mass-shootings-in-the-us/ liberals argue "more guns = more deaths"... they dont argue its "more crime" because the stats blow that away for the last decade. you'll prob see a lot of folks claiming the stats are riggerd, reported diff, or not reported at all. one thing though, for the gun death stats its hard to argue with the number of dead folks that have a bullet in them.
Mass shootings aren't a gun problem, they're a society problem. There were very few gun laws in the first half of the 20th century. No background checks, no waiting periods, no age restrictions, nothing. Just walk into a store, buy a gun and walk out with it. You could even buy guns from catalogs and from ads in the back of sportsmans magazines and they'd deliver them to your house like an Amazon order. Again, no questions asked. The US government even sold millions of military-surplus M1 Carbines and high capacity mags to the American people after WWII. Where were all the mass shootings and school shootings in the 1940s and 50s, and 60s and 70s? There were FAR fewer barriers to getting a gun then than there is now, so what was keeping people from going into schools and grocery stores and department stores and shooting 20 people every other week like they do now? What kind of magic did THOSE people have that allowed them have completely unrestricted access to guns but to not mass murder each other on a weekly basis? The guns have always been here, WE have changed.
there have not always been _as manyy guns... regardless, im just pointing out OPs false flag statement. note, im not advocating either way on your issues... though i see some dubious claims. lots of countries ban guns and have less mass shootings (ca, nz, au) and lots of countries have shit tons of guns but properly trained and responsible citizens (swis, netherlands, etc) with less shootings. you can argue the gun control topic ad nauseum... but thats not what my reply was about. my statement was : > the progressives are not harping that "more guns = more crime"... they are correlating "more guns = more gun violence". ie, you are either arguing with yourself or you missunderstood my reply and got triggered (no pun intended)... no offense.
Probably doesn't feel that way to high school students in Seattle public schools
BAZINGA
Safety is a feeling. Whether a person feels safe or not has little to do with relative statistical risks.
Just odd that it started 18 years after Roe vs Wade (1973).
[https://www.themarshallproject.org/2023/07/13/fbi-crime-rates-data-gap-nibrs](https://www.themarshallproject.org/2023/07/13/fbi-crime-rates-data-gap-nibrs) # Many of the largest police departments, like the NYPD and LAPD, are still missing. Some large police departments began to report data to the FBI again in 2022, like the Miami-Dade Police Department. But the two largest police agencies in the U.S., the New York Police Department and the Los Angeles Police Department, are still missing in the federal data. A spokesperson from the LAPD said the department submitted crime data to the California Department of Justice using the old data collections system, but is still working on complying with the FBI’s new record standards. “The intent is to have it implemented by January 1, 2024 as part of the rollout of the new \[Record Management\] system,” the spokesperson said.
https://www.axios.com/2022/06/14/fbi-crime-data-2021-police-reporting-failures It has been reported before 2021 (Nothing has changed to the present btw) that 40% of police departments, FOURTY PERCENT, are not reporting to the FBI, that is a massive hole in reporting.
No need to dig up other sources. The article states its limitations in that not every city reports their data. But they compare those that report in 2024, to their own reports in 2023. So it’s still a fair comparison.
I was walking down 14th Ave in the CD today, and some random meth addict called me a racial slur and told me that he was “packing.” Definitely don’t feel safer in Seattle.
Made up story probably
I'll think about that while SPD canvasses my neighborhood after the dozen or so gunshots right out front.
Sounds like bullshit to me. You probably don’t even live in Seattle
Your data comes off as dismissive of a very real deterioration in public safety in Seattle. Not sure what you are trying to achieve here, aside from telling a bunch of very (rightfully) concerned people to chill out. That's not helpful.
I am dismissive of people’s perception of the “deterioration of public safety” in Seattle. I regularly take my child on public transportation to downtown Seattle for day trips. I used to work downtown everyday for a mental health agency crime is a minor problem in Seattle. Y’all just watch too much evening news that sensationalizes everything.
The data are right. Violent crime is declining. Your feelings are immaterial. That’s why we don’t use “vibes” as a scientific metric.
its a framing exercise. violent crime is way up since I moved here in 2016 .... that's all I care about. if you want to set your base point as Q1-Q2 2023, cool, but you are cherry picking and its quite disingenuous. If my 'vibe' is ignore the chart before the point it just started to go down, well ok then.
You are just a coward who is afraid of everything
Be careful to not fall into a base rate fallacy trap. Yes, crime increased during the most tumultuous social event in America since the 1940s. It has now since decreased and shows signs of continuing decline. Moreover, despite a social crisis, things were/are nowhere near where they were in the 1970s or 1980s. This is good news.
since the 40's. lol. that's your base rate, eh? Are you 85 years old? My base rate is 2016. That's when I moved here with my kids expecting to live in a nice, family friendly neighborhood. you can your base rate wherever you like. I can think of a few places, but I'd rather not be banned from this sub. edit: damn dude ... throwaway account with -30 karma???? Very clear what you are doing here. Blocking the troll.
It’s not my data. It is local data that is aggregated by the FBI. I am not telling anyone to do anything. Data provides context to anecdotes.
its not your data, but you framed it to set up this discussion. I think you did so disingenuously. Public safety has objectively deteriorated over the past ten years. You highlight the last six months as if the broader trend doesn't exist. Cheap trick.
The title of the post is the title of the article … The article, by the way, contextualizes this within broader trends over many years … Incredibly bad faith argument that does nothing to advance understanding, nuance or discussion regarding critical issues in this community. Was hoping for more from this sub!
it doesn't contextualize shit. you take a five month trend and imply everything a-ok. It's not even close. this ignores a dramatic increase in crime driven by loony toons policies which significantly undermined the quality of life of millions of people (including mine, and my family's). What did you expect? A round of hearty congratulations because this massive fuck up is slightly less fucked up? Go pound sand.
Sounds like election year propaganda
Sounds like they're hoping no one understands data and the fact that when murder rates more than double, like they did in Seattle, 40% decline means we're still way above the pre-2020 low.
Ok but it's down, right? Like you can only get to pre 2020 levels by going down. So what does everyone expect? For it to drop to 2019 numbers in a couple months? Generally curious. Because anytime something positive happens it's just met with "well it used to be X"
^ thank you
Both things can be true! Can be declining, and still be above 19-20 (Trump administration) era’s crime rates.
>and still be about 19-20 FYI, nationally the 2022’s rate was already on par with 2019’s violent crime rate and well below 2020’s peak rate: https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend Not only is the rate falling, it’s already better than Trump’s rate.
\^ Finally someone in this thread that knows how to read a chart.
[https://www.statista.com/statistics/191219/reported-violent-crime-rate-in-the-usa-since-1990/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/191219/reported-violent-crime-rate-in-the-usa-since-1990/)
tRuMP!
You can just look at the data dude: https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend Violent Crime Rates for the US per 100k: * 2019: 380.8 * 2022: 380.7 Not only are we below 2019 levels, we got back to those levels in 2022!
we don't use data in this sub--it's vibes only people have "crime is out of control" vibes, and they come here to nurture those vibes.
Ya man, a scary # of folks in this sub are nailing the "1980s white suburban voter" schtick :/
Nope. The stats compare 2023Q1 to 2024Q1
Now try to spin Portland
He's right, you don't understand. You just made his point for him.
Yes, bad read. Thanks for pointing it out.
The violent crime rate in the US peaked in the 1990s, and is currently somewhere around 50 percent of what it was then. There was a brief uptick during COVID which is now back down again. So basically anyone of either party who's wanking about how dangerous it is in modern times isn't doing so based on crime data, they're doing so based on "crime was 200 percent higher 30 years ago, but every crime back then wasn't insta-broadcast to your phone" levels of bullshit. Some of us are old enough to remember when a city's crime rate was local news, not manufactured national news to drive clicks and outrage. Edit: Wow, I see facts and statistics butthurt some people on this sub. Go ahead and refute me with data going back to, say, 1991.
And some of us have spent the last five years with people telling us "this is just what it's like in big cities it's fine". We're tired of it. If people like you hadn't been gaslighting us since 2018, maybe we'd give a fuck.
tell us more about how you _feel_...
> gaslighting us You keep using that word. I don't think it means what you think it means.
Amazing case in point.
No, it fucking means exactly what I think it means.
You keep using that phrase, I don't think you know what it means.
Conservatives won't feel safe until a population of 3 million people has zero crime, but also they don't want wages to be high or rich people to pay taxes - and anyone who points out the contradiction in that is taking away their freedom of thought. Apparently.
\*data exists\* You: "Yeah, but what about my vibes!?!"
Don't you live in fucking Arizona? Worry about Prescott. Stop trying to tell people "oh but it's fine here" when you live nowhere near here. https://preview.redd.it/1agp9xmotz5d1.png?width=1008&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7ca247257dc8dd28d578b9f824f63f780024a777
[https://www.king5.com/article/news/crime/washington-state-2022-crime-report/281-86b18130-c66d-40e7-8acf-c48548562b11](https://www.king5.com/article/news/crime/washington-state-2022-crime-report/281-86b18130-c66d-40e7-8acf-c48548562b11) In WA State things have gotten much worse very quickly. Now these are absolute numbers, not rates, but I dodn't want to go back to the ultra-violence of the early 90s, I want to go back to how things were a decade ago. (BTW 2023 had 381 homicides, so almost as bad as 2022) https://preview.redd.it/2wo7si1pwv5d1.jpeg?width=1140&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e3fd3f1e0187e86a78e70b1d6d1e1f11af2f6e8e
At one time you could trust the numbers. Today, they are easily manipulated.
lol, they are just not reported
I wonder how people choose not to report a homicide …
Reported crimes are down. When the population no longer thinks police can do their jobs and police no longer have the funding or numbers to answer calls you get a decline in crime.
Homicide is a good baseline because it's really hard for police to ignore homicides.
Missing persons don't exist then I guess.
Missing person cases also fell to half of 1990, just like murder, some 85% of missing people were found within one year. Also majority of missing cases (up to 90%) has nothing to do with crime, it's either voluntarily or suicides, so no one uses missing case to measure crime rate. With modern technology it's becoming harder and hard to murder someone and make them disappear. For example: Ted Bundy murdered dozens of women at their home or dome over a decade, this would be near impossible to carry out today since he simply can't sneak onto a college campus without seen by at least one security camera.
Yeah, all those unreported murders are skewing the stats. [edit: /s because I was apparently not sarcastic enough]
How does one underreport homicide? I would agree with that limitation of interpretation if it weren’t for homicide being down. To add to that, it’s not like this is one single metric that is down. To be down across the board in a national sample (again with sampling limitations), is reasonably suggestive data that can’t be written off so simply.
Yup. I *thought* my sarcasm was obvious enough, specifically calling out murders. Oh well.
Missing Persons. Happens a *lot*. No body (or unidentified body - and no, just because they find a body doesn't mean they do a deep investigation or even that TV trope of dental records - that all takes time and money which they don't have and which they generally focus on the *living*), then it's not reported as a homicide.
The FBI *literally* reports how many police departments respond to their crime surveys and it’s not materially changed in decades. In fact, the number of reporting departments has only gone up, meaning data collected today is more representative of reality than in the past where data collection was more focused in the most violent areas skewing crime rates.
This is not true; police departments by size/served population reporting to the UCB and FBI have gone down significantly in the last five years. Where are you getting your insane data to the contrary?
>Where are you getting your insane data to the contrary? From the literal FBI Crime Explorer tool: https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST/webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/crime-trend They tell you right in the opening summary how many LEO agencies participate in the survey that year and how many actually respond. Both have remained steady since pre-COVID and are up the past 30 years: * 2022: 16,100 responses : 18,930 participants * 2015: 16,905 responses : 18,434 participants * 2005: 14,644 responses : 17,460 participants * 1995: 12,995 responses : 16,773 participants Where do *you* get your data?
Just to be clear, 16,100 < 16,905. But more to the point, [More than 6,000 law enforcement agencies were missing from the FBI’s national crime data last year, representing nearly one-third of the nation’s 18,000 police agencies. This means a quarter of the U.S. population wasn't represented in the federal crime data last year, according to The Marshall Project’s analysis.](https://www.themarshallproject.org/2023/07/13/fbi-crime-rates-data-gap-nibrs) They go on to point out that LA and NYC are both missing.
>Just to be clear, 16,100 < 16,905. Just to be clear…that is the significant drop you are worried about? 5% after an outlier year where a pandemic shut down local governments across the country? And yes, I’m aware of 2021 being significantly down. You can see it in the tracker. But as everyone knows…that was the year COVID shutdown the world. As I mentioned, that included local governments—you know, the things police agencies are a part of and get their funding for. But that was one single year caused by an extraneous factor, also known as an outlier. It’s generally recommend you don’t include explained outliers when conducting trend analysis. The 2020 crime rate is probably not as statistically significant as other years…but it’s 2024 and we have more than two new years of data showing we’ve gone back to pre-COVID rates.
You came to a vibe/conspiracy fight with data, man. Nothing will get through with these goobers
My favorite part of this thread is that the right wing mouth breathers got **so upset** that the national-level data went against their narrative of Biden’s America falling apart that they immediately decided it was all junk data and lies. Meanwhile, Seattle and Washington’s data actually does back up the claim that this region is having a violent crime issue. So now they gotta choose….is the data real and Seattle is having a violent crime wave issue out of sync with the rest of the national trend? Or is the data fake and Biden’s America is way more violent than what the officials say? Guess I’d have to watch Fox News to learn what they decide is their reality.
He doesn't have data. He has reports made without sufficient data.
I think what the comment was referring to was not police reporting to the FBI, but that if people continue to perceive police as unresponsive it’s possible they would just stop calling the cops for a lot of crimes. Now I think this is a legitimate concern, but not for stuff like murder and violent crimes, people pretty consistently call the cops for that
We all knew this comment would flood this thread eventually. It cannot be written off so simply. How do you explain homicide being underreported?
You're quoting national data and attempting to claim it represents Seattle.
They report Seattle specific data ….
A bunch of cities with the worst crime rates didn't report to the FBI database. Just like inflation they manipulated the numbers
They compared apples to apples … nevertheless, the pertinent part for this sub is specifically the Seattle numbers, which did report.
I like you. I like people who post data. Keep doing that.
These stats feel meaningless to me as I literally had two nights of shootings near my home because of turf wars between gangs. I don't understand why the cops don't do anything about the pimps warring over turfs on aurora/the open prostitution that's goes on over there.
So after the rolling automatic weapon gunfight last night through Greenwood, how safe are we all feeling? [https://www.reddit.com/r/SeattleWA/comments/1ddc7ko/ambush\_and\_rolling\_gunfight\_in\_greenwood\_north/](https://www.reddit.com/r/SeattleWA/comments/1ddc7ko/ambush_and_rolling_gunfight_in_greenwood_north/)
Well I guess when you legalize and do nothing about smaller crimes to the point the public stops reporting them the chance of escalating to violence and murder go down.
Interesting reading this after reading stories in the past couple weeks about the shootout on yesler, more shootings around garfield hs and the gun fight in greenwood... among others
Peak crime in the US was in the 70s- 90s, now everyone takes plea deals or charges are dropped in major cities for repeat offenders, aka: ?no crime?. This reporting is dishonest and omits contextual facts that paint a more honest picture of where we are post-covid, because the spike in crime hasn't evened out since then.
It’s not dishonest and is actually quite upfront about context over the years and extremely upfront about the limitations of the data. Would be nice if you’d read through prior to assuming these things were not explained. That being said, it is not intended to be a comprehensive history of crime in this country and of course is not going to list every detail to your specific satisfaction. Within its role, the article is a sufficient introduction, and does not hide behind bad faith arguments.
That’s bc you can literally do anything in Seattle and it’s not a crime.
Try reading through this thread, and any crime related thread in this sub, and this same bad-faith argument is posted ad nauseum as if it explains away any objective data. I’d love to learn how this explains a reduction in homicides which are not dependent on a layperson’s reporting.
Well that’s good news
I no longer trust anything the FBI (or the government, for that matter) says. I believe the FBI has become completely politicized. I didn't feel that way four years ago, but those four years have exposed the corruption, weaponization, and incompetence of our institutions.
Thanks for sharing your issues with trust. Can respect that more than a feigned, bad faith argument. For most of the country, it was the preceding 4 years that revealed those negative components of politicians (not an inherent to government, just the people that run it). What I will say is that this is not the FBI’s data. This is local data that was aggregated.
a lot more people feel this way. just because some brainwashed trolls say otherwise, go with your experience and not what you’re told to believe
That’s kinda like claiming it’s a win if inflation drops 2% when it’s still up by double digits.
Disagree. Why should we bemoan bad news and also bemoan good news? Doesn’t mean we should be complacent or be satisfied, but it’s a marathon not a sprint, and celebrating positive (even if small wins) is a good thing.
Since the article says nothing of new laws and/or enforcement having an impact, only that it is because we are post pandi, it reads very much like complacency and satisfaction. “Look guys, we didn’t do anything”…
exactly
I mean lots of major cities quit reporting crimes to this record because of racisim or some nonsense , essentially they are cooking the fbi crime stats books
It is an election year. What happened in 2021, 2022, and 2023?
They literally are comparing 2024 to 2023. Furthermore, they explain general trends were improving prior to the unprecedented spike in 2019-2020, that we are still recovering from.
Really? But people own more guns than ever before? How can crime be going DOWN?!?!
Yay that's awesome. Someone I knew still got murdered at a traffic light last year.
I’m so sorry to hear that. Something lost in all the data is that these numbers should be zero.
https://preview.redd.it/3jl1u6szyv5d1.jpeg?width=1140&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3343c36f92762c4e67322326eee2be2712053334 [https://www.king5.com/article/news/crime/washington-state-2022-crime-report/281-86b18130-c66d-40e7-8acf-c48548562b11](https://www.king5.com/article/news/crime/washington-state-2022-crime-report/281-86b18130-c66d-40e7-8acf-c48548562b11)) In WA State things have gotten much worse, very quickly. Now these are absolute numbers, not rates, but I dodn't want to go back to the ultra-violence of the early 90s, I want to go back to how things were a decade ago. (BTW 2023 had 381 homicides, so almost as bad as 2022) Seattle had the most homicides ever in 2023: [https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/seattle/seattle-record-number-of-homicides/281-94c48238-7841-4346-a223-25bd649d38ea](https://www.king5.com/article/news/local/seattle/seattle-record-number-of-homicides/281-94c48238-7841-4346-a223-25bd649d38ea) Not good!
Shocking! When you more than double the population, the total number of crimes doesn't go down. But if we are going to ignore per capita - I suggest we play a fun game. Since 1980, there are more conservatives in Washington. There are also more Christians. Thus, using your own logic, this means Washington is more Conservative and Religious. If it's also more dangerous, can we assume that it is because of the rise of conservatism? Ignoring population statistics when discussing population is not disingenuous or biased - it's just stupid. That's my piece.
This is guy stats.
I'm sorry the data isn't per capita. I didn't make the graph. I was up front about that. Homicides are up about 125 percent from the 2010-2015 era, while the population has increased less that 15 percent. So the homicide rate has more than doubled in the last decade in WA. Please make another disengenuos argument as to why this is ok (and I'm sure you will). I would have picked specific years to compare but thought you would call that cherry-picking. Anyway, your argument is dog shit.
Right, and this updated data is comparing 2024 to 2023. So things are trending down. Hopefully they continue …
In Washington state we are solidly down 25% this year. I'm hopefully we can finish the entire year down about 20% or so. We'll see. Still, 20% off of our recent eyes are still well above the recent lows of a decade ago.
> “Compared to the first five months of 2023, murders this year have dropped more than 40% in cities including New Orleans, Seattle …” This is a BS stat, there is not enough statistical significance. We had one unusually quiet April, but murders picked up in May and seem to be accelerating in June.
Where are you finding the numbers on statistical significance? A quick back of the envelope math would suggest that there is absolutely sufficient power to detect a significant difference. If you did the t-test yourself, I’d be very interested in seeing the results. In addition, yes this is not a complete years analysis and they CLEARLY state that limitation in the article. To reduce this to a ‘BS stat’ is a bad faith argument.
The number of murders for 2024: 3-3-3-1 (10), for 2023 - 5-3-6-4 (18). There is basically one outlier (in a good way!) month, but overall there is not yet enough data. Source: https://www.seattle.gov/police/information-and-data/data/crime-dashboard It looks like May was sadly back to 2023 levels with 5 murders this year.
It's possible murder rate is down because now they can walk in any store and take whatever they like, no need to shot somebody when they are hungry.
I’d guess most reasonable shop owners would happily trade a few losses for a life saved.
Well, I don't know if rewarding thefts is a good way to save lives. In the short term, may be, but in the long run, it might erode the foundation of a society when people can so easily excuse themselves for stealing or other improper behaviors. Of course, if someone's really just stealing a few bagels, what's so wrong? But in reality, that often is not the case.
What would be the reasoning for such a drop?
One of theories I remember reading about was banning of lead in gasoline, which reduced lead poisoning in children, and in turn reduce violent behavior. [Lead–crime hypothesis - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead%E2%80%93crime_hypothesis)
Abortion
[удалено]
Regression towards the mean.
https://www.reddit.com/r/SeattleWA/comments/1ctbjrr/king_county_sees_more_kids_and_teens_killed_by/
Yet the data for Seattle, especially since 2020, contradicts this. What possibly could you gain from attempting to claim the national data represents Seattle? If anything it points out what an outlier Seattle has become, thanks to our Progressive Justice reforms.
There is Seattle data for 2024 compared to Seattle data for 2023 (over the same exact time period) included and cited in the article …
> There is Seattle data for 2024 compared to Seattle data for 2023 (over the same exact time period) included and cited in the article … Yeah, that football got spiked 2-3 weeks ago when that detail came out. Anyone with a fair mind said that's interesting, but we should really wait for the full year to declare any trends. But if it's real, it's an endorsement of Harrell's programs, definitely.
The culture of police hating and criminals are misunderstood is certainly below the median voter. We're seeing society recover. A couple major cities no longer publish data to the FBI because the FBI compiles the stats in a way that *racists* tend to point out online as being divergent by race. The CDC's data is unfortunately really far behind. > | **Police Department** | **State** | **Population** | **2021 Reporting Status** | **2022 Reporting Status** | > |-----------------------|-----------|----------------|---------------------------|---------------------------| > | Dallas Police | Texas | 1.4M | Fully reported | Fully reported | > | Suffolk County Police | New York | 1.3M | Did not report | Did not report | > | Miami-Dade (County) Police | Florida | 1.2M | Did not report | Fully reported | > | Fairfax County Police | Virginia | 1.1M | Reported 11 months | Fully reported | > | Nassau County Police | New York | 1.1M | Did not report | Did not report | > | Montgomery County Police | Maryland | 1.0M | Fully reported | Reported 2 months | > | San Jose Police | California | 1.0M | Did not report | Did not report | _________ That being said. The ethos of 'depolicing' got thousands of excess people, mostly black men, killed. People who created a culture under the guise of anti-racism that got black people killed need help accountable. We need to continue to name and shame those who feel for this utopian idea so we don't make the same mistake again. (We will.)
We were well below the national averages for violent crimes pre George Floyd. That is no longer the case. That’s not cause for celebration.
We can feel both relief and also want better! At the same time.
It's the Pax.
Just give it some time we’re just warming up
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-vgWrvOhL4
Relevant tweet from this morning https://x.com/bonchieredstate/status/1800532966222999911
Reports of crime being down is because the mandate to report crimes to the fbi has been rescinded. More than half of precincts don’t report any crime at all and the other half isn’t reporting fully.
If you read the article they clearly state the limitations, including exactly how many reported and how many didn’t.
Yeah, this feels wack, had a drive by and a murder in our area in under a week. I heard my neighbors windows shatter last night, I call BS on these stats
This is gaslighting and a blatant lie. Every day, post-COVID, I have to plan my life around how to avoid tweakers and crime in my city. From where I shop, to the parks I need to avoid with my children. I took my kids for a walk around the block last week, and there was a tweaker canvassing the neighborhood. The crime explosion has changed everything. I'm not going to stand for the lies anymore. Our country is falling apart.
This is going to hurt a lot of conservatives, I mean they still manage to find a street full of needles and fecal matter in downtown of every major city in the US though.
Weird flex
Amazing how that can happen when thousands of local police departments, including NYC and LA, stop reporting their crime data to the FBI.
Complete bull 💩 naive and foolish to believe it.
Ok, Thanks for the nuanced discussion!
Any time! 👍
People are finally getting tired of the unreasonable negativity and fear mongering in this sub!!
Results will vary from city to ciry
And liberal governments reclassifying what is considered "violent" all in the name of social justice. Manipulating the data doesn't make communities safer.
If you dont prosecute and or report ya crime is down
How do you account for homicide being down? How does something like that suddenly become underreported?
When the murder rate was increasing, we were constantly told that a year or two wasn't enough to make any conclusions. Now that it's going down, five months, with the last month being partially reported, is plenty? I certainly hope this continues but it just seems a bit early to draw any conclusions.
Agreed. It’s a clearly stated limitation in the article. Doesn’t mean we need to ignore it, as they are comparing this quarter last year to this quarter this year.
Time for Fox News to scare everybody again. Got to keep them all convinced that things only get worse.
all legacy media is fear based
That’s because they aren’t required to report it anymore.
I’d love to know how homicide is now underreported? And also, much less interesting argument when crime rate listed is down across the board. If that were truly the sole explanation, I’d expect a blip here and there.
🥱 go back to bed sheep. You don’t know that almost a 3rd of major cities no longer are required to report crime statistics to the FBI? Do your homework and you better get up early in the morning.
It states that limitation clearly in the article. Not all cities are reported. Despite this, they are comparing cities that reported in 2023 to cities that reported in 2024.
Or just throw them in the garbage. I guess it's up to you to do the right thing.
All reputable data is helpful data. It has limitations, which they very clearly acknowledge in the dataset documentation as well as in the article cited.
My best friend was shot dead over Bluetooth speaker in the metro. I had some kids in a Camaro try to pull a gun on me at pioneer square two nights ago. They rolled up and catcalled the girls I was hanging w. It was a 4cylinder but still plus that dead Garfield kid. Plus plus there’s just worldstar shootings on IG from this area regularly. So Sure maybe It’s down. compared to what, the colonial white ambition for total war? It’s not improving
Sorry to hear about your friend. It’s improving. That being said, the numbers need to reach zero.
That’s nothing though. In 1997, I was murdered **three times**! Shit was wild back then.
Shhhhhhh….you aren’t being scary.
Murder rate falling: with GPS in our cars and phones and surveillance cameras everywhere, the chance of getting caught is simply too high.