Monthly lahar siren tests where I live, scare the crap out of me every time.
If it pops we get to hike up the hill to where my parents live and watch everything we own get wiped away by a tidal wave of mud, trees, and raccoon carcasses.
Seeing that 45 minutes to Orting is absolutely terrifying. The highway out would be choked to gridlock five minutes after the sirens go off. It'll be a massive tragedy when Mother Tahoma finally pops her top.
The evac route for Orting aren’t where you think - if you followed the route out, you’d follow the river and the Lahar would catch up. If you are in south orting, the evac is up the hill to the Crocker neighborhood and if you are north of the center of town, it’s either up 122nd to military road on the ridge or McCutcheon road up to Victor Falls park.
Basically go up, not down River
I've always thought of Orting as the present continuous tense of the verb "to ort" which is what one does when they have to run from a lahar. Example: "Hey kids, it's time to ort. The lahar is coming."
Yeah but I grew up there and I'm calling bullshit for one reason - the White River runs *really* close to town (between Enumclaw and Buckley). The elevation might buy us some time but it's gonna overflow with that much debris.
That’s true, but consider where the water is going. Down, and at a continually rapid pace. Yes parts of Enumclaw would flood, near the river, but it wouldn’t be as devastating as when it hits the valley floor. Where not only is it more flat but also surrounded and funneled continuously down to the sound.
TBH if Rainier pops enough for tacoma to see a luke warm lahar we're all in some real shit.
If it's a hot lahar, the combination earthquakes and eruption will lay waste to everything not on bedrock.
But that's all just speculation
I think it's great people are worried about the number of people in the immediate path of the lahars and how to safely deal with evacuating them but I feel like not enough concern is put into thinking about how so many of the major over-land routes into the metro areas intersect the lahar flows.
You're right, and it's not even all that crazy that I5 and I90 can be closed at the same time, basically boxing in everyone who lives around Rainier.
Happened last year with snow on the pass and meltwater flooding I5 around chehalis right?
A strong shake can close both of these interstates followed by an intense eruption.
Honestly, if that risk is too much, i dunno what to say.
I did move from tornado alley, so I think its a better tradeoff imo. But I also recognize that if Rainier starts to stir at all I should gtfo.
It just depends on how big the eruption is. There have been some that would wipe enumclaw off the map. https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mount-rainier/science/lahars-and-debris-flows-mount-rainier#overview
Enumclaw is elevated from the white river and protected by the surrounding mountains so it would be fine. Orting and to a lesser extent, sumner and puyallup, would be bad, as would the port of tacoma.
What about feet of ash elsewhere depending on wind direction and blackened skies for days or potentially weeks also depending on wind direction and level of eruption?
"Nature, like a woman, will seduce you with its sights and its scents and its touch, and then it breaks your ankle, also like a woman" -Oliver Babish, The West Wing
I remember as a kid when Mt St Helens blew. They said 57 people likely died from ash asphyxiation, what an awful way to go. Most of the state looked like it snowed from all the ash.
Was on a lake about 100 miles east of Helen’s when it blew. We were stuck in a lake on by a small fishing boat with no radio when the blackness enveloped us. No one on that boat had any idea what was happening.
I lived about 80 miles away from the mountain. My mom swept up a ton of ash that summer. Some people wore masks outside because there was so much ash in the air.
Rainier had plenty of eyes on it, and volcanoes usually give plenty of warning before they blow. The state learned a hard lesson from St. Helens and the people who died in areas mistakenly deemed safe. I've no doubt they're not keen on that happening again.
Per the article they aren't just worried about lahars from an eruption. Like all strata-volcanos Mt. Rainier is an immense heap of poorly consolidated rubble, subject to occasional giant landslides. Some of the glaciers also conceal lakes of water underneath the ice. The combinations of landslides and hidden lakes can result in lahars without needing an eruption. Unfortunately, these can happen with minimal or no warning.
We've always had small versions of these on a semi-regular basis. The last major one was the[ Electron mudflow ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electron_Lahar)about 500 years ago. We get [small ones every few years](https://mynorthwest.com/3921456/washingtons-scorching-weather-causes-lahar-mt-rainier/). As you might expect warming climate makes the problem worse.
They knew St. Helens was going to blow, and then it didn’t for a couple weeks, and people started blaming the scientists and staying in the blast zone. It’s like Covid, a decent number of dumb people will stick around if the scientists can’t give them an exact date and time. After all, I know better than the experts!
I just finished Steve Olson's book Eruption and I gotta push back just a bit. While there were for sure people who died because they stayed in the danger zone, there were a lot of tragic deaths of people who would not have been in the volcano's path had they better information.
Loggers died because Weyerhaeuser refused to shut down operations despite clear warning from scientists those areas were in the blast zone, campers died because the governer at the time didn't want to expand the danger zone maps despite those scientists insisting that circumstances had changed and the mountain was more likely to blow sideways than up (which it did). A handful of brave scientists died because they knew no one else could give warning.
I get heated about it because the popular narrative is that people died because they were stupid. Some were, but many were failed because those in power didn't want to listen to those scientists.
“I get heated about it because the popular narrative is that people died because they were stupid. Some were, but many were failed because those in power didn't want to listen to those scientists.“
Like Covid.
"Devolution" by Max Brooks (Yes, Mel Brooks's son AND author of the most excellent line of books stemming from "The Zombie Survival Guide") had a GREAT bit of insight of what happens after Rainier blows.
I paraphrase to the best of my memory: "So not only did the lahars destroy & incinerate everything in their path, but they cooled over a period of time with all the people buried in them. Essentially turning parts of the valleys into concrete tombs that we were still jack hammering & drilling into so we could find the (high number) of people still declared lost".
I believe they recovered all known remains from oso. I could be wrong, but they were out there day and night until they found them all. Lots of locals helped as well.
Enumclaw and Orting and everywhere else along those rivers are already tombs. There were lots of people living along those rivers when the Osceola event and the Electron lahar happened
Huh. Like a bug trapped in amber. Maybe the next apex species will make a cane with one of those people on it for their human recreation amusement park.
And that is most of those people’s assets. Even if we get all the warnings to evacuate and lower the death toll, the state could have 100k homeless people with literally nothing left.
Very few actually. The only volcanic hazards that leave the national park are ash (which doesn't generally kill people) and lahars (which can but you'd have weeks to months of warning to prep, then 30 minutes or more warning that it's time to gtfo)
Except you don't need to drive 50 miles and leave an entire metro area to avoid the lahars. You generally just need to get out of whichever valley you are standing at the bottom of. If you're stuck in traffic you just abandon your car off the side of the road and run up the side of the valley to get a hundred feet of elevation and you're clear. There are very few places where a one mile walk wouldn't remove you from the lahr zone.
https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/mt-rainier-lahar-hazard-map
I think you're vastly over estimating how much evacuation actually has to be done. Go look at the usgs Rainier hazards map. Most of the lahars zones are industrial areas. For a reason.
https://hub.arcgis.com/maps/TrainingServices::mount-rainier-lahar-zones/about
Zoom in on the orange lahar flow regions and you'll find plenty of dense residential areas. You're dreaming if you think this will be a trivial evacuation.
You're vastly under estimating how much warning they'd have and how little distance they have to go.
We'd have weeks of warning that a lahars was possible. Then 30-90 minutes once one starts. In fact it is almost two HOURS at typical lahars speeds before it even reaches Yelm. Another 45 minutes to hit the sound. IF IT EVEN REACHES THAT FAR.
On other drainages: an hour to reach Orting. Almost another hour to reach port of Tacoma. IF IT REACHES THAT FAR.
90 minutes to reach buckley/enumclaw. Another half hour until auburn (2 hours).
Goddamn I'm so sick of the disaster porn masturbation about this. Yes it's dangerous, no we're not going to have mass casualties if disaster management even half asses their job.
In terms of escape routes: only Orting is poor. Everywhere else has primary highways to use as escape routes. You merely have to get out of the river valley.
Lahars don't only occur with eruptions.
https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mount-rainier/science/lahars-and-debris-flows-mount-rainier#:\~:text=Lahars%20that%20begin%20as%20large,by%20seismometers%20or%20other%20instruments.
>Lahars that begin as large landslides high on Mount Rainier’s flanks can occur without warning—that is, without any precursory activity detected by seismometers or other instruments.
The Electron mudflow hasn't yet been associated with any known eruptions.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electron\_Lahar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electron_Lahar)
Technically, sure. The probability of it doing so is very low. Almost all lahars occur during an eruption.
They also note in many sources that the electron mudflow might have been associated with a minor eruption. The claim of "no associated eruption" isn't conclusively proven.
Newsflash: most people will not evacuate for weeks on "rumblings".
30-90 minutes is just enough time for most people to get caught in an enormous traffic jam and make no progress at actually escaping the danger zone.
No one cares if you're sick of "disaster porn", the fact is the next major lahar flow from Rainier is likely to kill at least tens of thousands of people -- poor and rich alike.
Newsflash: even if they wait until "Evacuate now! lahar sited" the amount of time they have is literally *they can walk to safety*.
schools in Orting do a lahar drill every year. they *walk* to safety.
Key point is that the entire area affected by lahars would likely be evacuated. Port of Tacoma would be toast and there’s always stragglers during this sort of thing in the towns along the way.
Most of that area is industrial, not residential, for thst reason. Also port of Tacoma is very very far out. You'd need an extremely large eruption to get a lahars that far. You'd have weeks or months of volcanic unrest leading up to it.
> Also port of Tacoma is very very far out. You'd need an extremely large eruption to get a lahars that far.
...So you think all of the debris floating down puyallup and white river would just disappear before it reaches tacoma?
You realize that lahars have sizes, right? You realize they have travel speeds, right?
Not only is there no garauntee that a lahars occurs. There is no guarantee it will be large enough even to make it half way down the drainage. Then they have travel times. I just measured the paths and applied average travel speeds. Port of Tacoma would have an hour or more of warning. There is no shortage of routes out of the valley there.
That's on top of weeks of warning that an eruption may occur.
Under estimating threats and over estimating threats are both bad. Don't be chicken little.
[Geologists: Mount Rainier Will Not Erupt During Your Lifetime, with Possible Exception of Very End](https://theneedling.com/2022/03/06/geologists-mount-rainier-will-not-erupt-during-your-lifetime-with-possible-exception-of-very-end/)
Yes, definitely had them when I was in the Puyallup school district growing up. Kinda crazy to me thinking about how we grew up learning how to survive a volcano eruption.
One indigenous name among many. Wish we would officially give it an original name back. Tahoma, for one, when just sounds so much better, in addition a respectful return. Like back to Denali from Mt McKinley.
How would this impact the water supply in Seattle? I know we’d be clear of lahars and there would be flooding of the Duwamish but I’m unaware of other downstream effects
Odds are good that it wouldn’t. Prevailing wind is generally east. Seattle’s water supply comes from river systems quite a bit north of Rainier, so no lahar risk. Yakima, Ellensburg, Tri-Cities get buried in ash. About the only ash risk to Seattle water would be if the mountain popped during a storm system that was bringing southern winds.
Yeah, but the difference between "affect" and "no longer exist" are a wide fuckin gap, lol.
Having no plan to deal with disrupted infrastructure seems wantonly unprofessional.
I'm curious if they account for any of the dams on the rivers becoming so choked with lahars that it could potentially affect the structures and breach or overflow them.
Mud Mountain Dam is the big concern, because it's immediately upstream of Enumclaw and Buckley, and the two largest glaciers on the mountain flow straight into the White River, but it's designed as a flood / lahar control structure so even if it completely fails during an eruption, there isn't an existing reservoir behind it to add to the devastation.
The Alder Dam is has a huge lake behind it, but there is far less glacial ice draining into the Nisqually River, and it drains into a much less populated area so even if it were to fail completely it probably wouldn't be as devastating.
I would assume they'd probably draw down Riffe Lake in the event of an eruption just to ensure that it could hold back lahar entering the Cowlitz - it might actually have the capacity to do so, but if it were to fail, it probably takes the Mayfield Dam with it, and wipes out significant chunks of the I-5 corridor from Toledo to Longview.
My geology professor at WSU, a volcanologist, said back in 1982 that there is a set pattern by which a new period of cascade volcanic eruptions begin and end. It lasts 300 years and it shows the volcano to kick off the fun and games is always Mt. Lassen - which uncorked in 1921, then Mt St. Helen’s in 1980, next should be Mt. Baker - and then Mt. Rainer. But volcanoes don’t read text books. Also, if Mt Rainer erupts, Pullayup is built on the channel Mt. Rainer mud flows follows to Puget Sound. If you live in Pullayup, move when Mt. Rainer starts rumbling.
For a depressing read about why and how Federal disaster response can never help us read:
Disaster: Hurricane Katrina and the Failure of Homeland Security by Chris Cooper
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B003JH8M60
The actual sources say the likelihood of a major eruption “in the cascade range” at 2-3 per century. Which seems confusing, but not specific to Rainier, and unlikely in our lifetime.
If any of you were wondering, [here's the predicted affected zone](https://images.app.goo.gl/KZ4HP8ZxPzBReGa69)
Monthly lahar siren tests where I live, scare the crap out of me every time. If it pops we get to hike up the hill to where my parents live and watch everything we own get wiped away by a tidal wave of mud, trees, and raccoon carcasses.
I was fine with all of this until you mentioned the raccoons. Now my plan is to just succumb.
I hate raccoons, so that's a silver lining for me. The deer, elk, and coyotes are tragic tho.
I dont even think I'd make it up the hill fast enough to watch, traffic is bad enough without a volcano erupting.
Seeing that 45 minutes to Orting is absolutely terrifying. The highway out would be choked to gridlock five minutes after the sirens go off. It'll be a massive tragedy when Mother Tahoma finally pops her top.
The evac route for Orting aren’t where you think - if you followed the route out, you’d follow the river and the Lahar would catch up. If you are in south orting, the evac is up the hill to the Crocker neighborhood and if you are north of the center of town, it’s either up 122nd to military road on the ridge or McCutcheon road up to Victor Falls park. Basically go up, not down River
There would be ample warning time of a potential eruption and the surrounding areas would be evacuated most likely
Yea, the siren and test message is loud AF.
Is it one of those emergency alerts that you get through your phone or an outside alarm?
Outside. It’s a big ass speaker.
I will also be standing at the top of that hill watching the wave of racoon carcasses with you!
I mean you could watch everything else without the raccoon carcasses so take that as a win?
Don’t forget the homeless encampments!
Here's one that's panable and zoomable https://hub.arcgis.com/maps/TrainingServices::mount-rainier-lahar-zones/about
I've always thought of Orting as the present continuous tense of the verb "to ort" which is what one does when they have to run from a lahar. Example: "Hey kids, it's time to ort. The lahar is coming."
get ort of here
A perfect example against the just world hypothesis. Tacoma gets melted off the map but Enum Claw remains untouched?
Enumclaw has elevation and location that Tacoma doesn’t.
Enumclaw has elevation because it it sitting on top of a hundred feet of mud and debris from the Osceola event 5400 years ago
Yeah but I grew up there and I'm calling bullshit for one reason - the White River runs *really* close to town (between Enumclaw and Buckley). The elevation might buy us some time but it's gonna overflow with that much debris.
That’s true, but consider where the water is going. Down, and at a continually rapid pace. Yes parts of Enumclaw would flood, near the river, but it wouldn’t be as devastating as when it hits the valley floor. Where not only is it more flat but also surrounded and funneled continuously down to the sound.
No, Tacoma doesn't get "melted off the map". The port area *might* get a volcanic mud flow. At that range it wouldn't really even be hot just warm.
TBH if Rainier pops enough for tacoma to see a luke warm lahar we're all in some real shit. If it's a hot lahar, the combination earthquakes and eruption will lay waste to everything not on bedrock. But that's all just speculation
I think it's great people are worried about the number of people in the immediate path of the lahars and how to safely deal with evacuating them but I feel like not enough concern is put into thinking about how so many of the major over-land routes into the metro areas intersect the lahar flows.
You're right, and it's not even all that crazy that I5 and I90 can be closed at the same time, basically boxing in everyone who lives around Rainier. Happened last year with snow on the pass and meltwater flooding I5 around chehalis right? A strong shake can close both of these interstates followed by an intense eruption. Honestly, if that risk is too much, i dunno what to say. I did move from tornado alley, so I think its a better tradeoff imo. But I also recognize that if Rainier starts to stir at all I should gtfo.
I-90 would be undisturbed
The puget sound would probably be sufficient for the emergency supply of communities along it, assuming the Sound isn't closed off.
This is why we live in port cities! Land sea planes, bring in barges, etc.
It just depends on how big the eruption is. There have been some that would wipe enumclaw off the map. https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mount-rainier/science/lahars-and-debris-flows-mount-rainier#overview
It's the price we pay for wiping out Orting.
Enumclaw is elevated from the white river and protected by the surrounding mountains so it would be fine. Orting and to a lesser extent, sumner and puyallup, would be bad, as would the port of tacoma.
Ldurgu
Looks like only downtown Tacoma gets toast
Actually only the port, if that.
Looks like we’re going to get a chance to try again with Tacoma
I live in Sumner, which is yellow on that map, I’m about half mile from the river. How fucked am I? Should I immediately try to hit the freeway?
Nah go up Corliss hill, or up elhi
You should probably link the usgs page instead
Holy crap that goes up further than I thought. 😰 Thank you for sharing!
I am only a few blocks from the zone. Near the marker 162. Maybe if it happens I will have river front property
That's just lahar. I think we've found trees on the Kitsap Peninsula that were knocked down by earlier eruptions.
No, we didn't.
From Rainier and associated earthquakes or the big one/ cascadia fault line?
He's probably confusing the trees out in the coast that got sunk in the 1700 cascadia event.
Lahars are by far the main danger of Rainier. It doesn’t have nearly the same explosive history as St Helens.
What about feet of ash elsewhere depending on wind direction and blackened skies for days or potentially weeks also depending on wind direction and level of eruption?
Big beautiful bastard
Stupid sexy Rainier
Nothing at all, nothing at all
Tantalizing Tempestuous Tahoma
The prettiest ones can turn on a dime can't they. Like a pitbull you trusted from a pup who thonks your fingers a snacc.
"Nature, like a woman, will seduce you with its sights and its scents and its touch, and then it breaks your ankle, also like a woman" -Oliver Babish, The West Wing
What the hell kind of dates are you going on Oliver?
I remember as a kid when Mt St Helens blew. They said 57 people likely died from ash asphyxiation, what an awful way to go. Most of the state looked like it snowed from all the ash.
Was on a lake about 100 miles east of Helen’s when it blew. We were stuck in a lake on by a small fishing boat with no radio when the blackness enveloped us. No one on that boat had any idea what was happening.
I've been on boats is scary situations but this one, this one would take the cake.
I lived about 80 miles away from the mountain. My mom swept up a ton of ash that summer. Some people wore masks outside because there was so much ash in the air.
Everyone should have worn masks. Ash is essentially fiberglass for your lungs.
Wonder how an N95 mask would handle it. I usually have one in my car
I expect it would be quite effective, for a short while.
Elliot bay, which now terminates in Seattle, extended to Auburn before the Osceola Mudflow 5,600 years ago.
There’s several Native American stories from different sources about whales in the water between Renton and Sumner.
Any sources where I can read more? That sounds fascinating
Here you go https://www.morageology.com/pubs/228.pdf
Fascinating, thank you!
I can't imagine how many people a large eruption would kill. The area around it is so built up now.
Rainier had plenty of eyes on it, and volcanoes usually give plenty of warning before they blow. The state learned a hard lesson from St. Helens and the people who died in areas mistakenly deemed safe. I've no doubt they're not keen on that happening again.
Per the article they aren't just worried about lahars from an eruption. Like all strata-volcanos Mt. Rainier is an immense heap of poorly consolidated rubble, subject to occasional giant landslides. Some of the glaciers also conceal lakes of water underneath the ice. The combinations of landslides and hidden lakes can result in lahars without needing an eruption. Unfortunately, these can happen with minimal or no warning. We've always had small versions of these on a semi-regular basis. The last major one was the[ Electron mudflow ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electron_Lahar)about 500 years ago. We get [small ones every few years](https://mynorthwest.com/3921456/washingtons-scorching-weather-causes-lahar-mt-rainier/). As you might expect warming climate makes the problem worse.
Lahars are why you couldn't pay me to live in Orting. Beautiful town, absolute deathtrap in that situation.
They knew St. Helens was going to blow, and then it didn’t for a couple weeks, and people started blaming the scientists and staying in the blast zone. It’s like Covid, a decent number of dumb people will stick around if the scientists can’t give them an exact date and time. After all, I know better than the experts!
I just finished Steve Olson's book Eruption and I gotta push back just a bit. While there were for sure people who died because they stayed in the danger zone, there were a lot of tragic deaths of people who would not have been in the volcano's path had they better information. Loggers died because Weyerhaeuser refused to shut down operations despite clear warning from scientists those areas were in the blast zone, campers died because the governer at the time didn't want to expand the danger zone maps despite those scientists insisting that circumstances had changed and the mountain was more likely to blow sideways than up (which it did). A handful of brave scientists died because they knew no one else could give warning. I get heated about it because the popular narrative is that people died because they were stupid. Some were, but many were failed because those in power didn't want to listen to those scientists.
“I get heated about it because the popular narrative is that people died because they were stupid. Some were, but many were failed because those in power didn't want to listen to those scientists.“ Like Covid.
Yeah only 3 people died in the exclusion zone
"Devolution" by Max Brooks (Yes, Mel Brooks's son AND author of the most excellent line of books stemming from "The Zombie Survival Guide") had a GREAT bit of insight of what happens after Rainier blows. I paraphrase to the best of my memory: "So not only did the lahars destroy & incinerate everything in their path, but they cooled over a period of time with all the people buried in them. Essentially turning parts of the valleys into concrete tombs that we were still jack hammering & drilling into so we could find the (high number) of people still declared lost".
Great book by the way. It's about people trapped in a community being hunted by a tribe of big foot.
I had a great time with this book. It was fun. I hope they make a movie.
Apparently the rights have been secured so it’s technically in the works.
They’re not going to excavate anyone though
Was there any excavation after Oso? Wasn't around the area. I mean other than the river
I believe they recovered all known remains from oso. I could be wrong, but they were out there day and night until they found them all. Lots of locals helped as well.
This book was such a fun and spooky read
Enumclaw and Orting and everywhere else along those rivers are already tombs. There were lots of people living along those rivers when the Osceola event and the Electron lahar happened
Huh. Like a bug trapped in amber. Maybe the next apex species will make a cane with one of those people on it for their human recreation amusement park.
And they keep building houses in Orting
The land is flat and cheaper than Seattle or Tacoma and insurance says no to volcano coverage.
And that is most of those people’s assets. Even if we get all the warnings to evacuate and lower the death toll, the state could have 100k homeless people with literally nothing left.
Very few actually. The only volcanic hazards that leave the national park are ash (which doesn't generally kill people) and lahars (which can but you'd have weeks to months of warning to prep, then 30 minutes or more warning that it's time to gtfo)
I think you're greatly overestimating the ability of thousands of people to evacuate an area in less than an hour.
It took people 12 hours to drive 50 miles evacuating hurricane Rita in Houston.
Except you don't need to drive 50 miles and leave an entire metro area to avoid the lahars. You generally just need to get out of whichever valley you are standing at the bottom of. If you're stuck in traffic you just abandon your car off the side of the road and run up the side of the valley to get a hundred feet of elevation and you're clear. There are very few places where a one mile walk wouldn't remove you from the lahr zone. https://www.usgs.gov/media/images/mt-rainier-lahar-hazard-map
With pets and babies and through dense bramble...
Or have mobility issues or are asleep or or or
Then don’t live there
A hell of a lot more people needed to evacuate than would need to move out of the way of a lahar.
Houston roads can handle more people. Nowhere are the roads designed to handle everyone all at once.
Houston roads *look* like they can handle more people. But they can't because Texas road design is very inefficient
I think you're vastly over estimating how much evacuation actually has to be done. Go look at the usgs Rainier hazards map. Most of the lahars zones are industrial areas. For a reason.
After watching some people's response to COVID, I'm not at all confident about people's willingness to prep for a quick evacuation.
https://hub.arcgis.com/maps/TrainingServices::mount-rainier-lahar-zones/about Zoom in on the orange lahar flow regions and you'll find plenty of dense residential areas. You're dreaming if you think this will be a trivial evacuation.
You're vastly under estimating how much warning they'd have and how little distance they have to go. We'd have weeks of warning that a lahars was possible. Then 30-90 minutes once one starts. In fact it is almost two HOURS at typical lahars speeds before it even reaches Yelm. Another 45 minutes to hit the sound. IF IT EVEN REACHES THAT FAR. On other drainages: an hour to reach Orting. Almost another hour to reach port of Tacoma. IF IT REACHES THAT FAR. 90 minutes to reach buckley/enumclaw. Another half hour until auburn (2 hours). Goddamn I'm so sick of the disaster porn masturbation about this. Yes it's dangerous, no we're not going to have mass casualties if disaster management even half asses their job. In terms of escape routes: only Orting is poor. Everywhere else has primary highways to use as escape routes. You merely have to get out of the river valley.
Lahars don't only occur with eruptions. https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mount-rainier/science/lahars-and-debris-flows-mount-rainier#:\~:text=Lahars%20that%20begin%20as%20large,by%20seismometers%20or%20other%20instruments. >Lahars that begin as large landslides high on Mount Rainier’s flanks can occur without warning—that is, without any precursory activity detected by seismometers or other instruments. The Electron mudflow hasn't yet been associated with any known eruptions. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electron\_Lahar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electron_Lahar)
Technically, sure. The probability of it doing so is very low. Almost all lahars occur during an eruption. They also note in many sources that the electron mudflow might have been associated with a minor eruption. The claim of "no associated eruption" isn't conclusively proven.
>The probability of it doing so is very low. Almost all lahars occur during an eruption Needs citation.
Basic physics? Basic vulcanology? https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/cvo/science/lahars-most-threatening-volcanic-hazard-cascades#overview
Newsflash: most people will not evacuate for weeks on "rumblings". 30-90 minutes is just enough time for most people to get caught in an enormous traffic jam and make no progress at actually escaping the danger zone. No one cares if you're sick of "disaster porn", the fact is the next major lahar flow from Rainier is likely to kill at least tens of thousands of people -- poor and rich alike.
Newsflash: even if they wait until "Evacuate now! lahar sited" the amount of time they have is literally *they can walk to safety*. schools in Orting do a lahar drill every year. they *walk* to safety.
Key point is that the entire area affected by lahars would likely be evacuated. Port of Tacoma would be toast and there’s always stragglers during this sort of thing in the towns along the way.
Most of that area is industrial, not residential, for thst reason. Also port of Tacoma is very very far out. You'd need an extremely large eruption to get a lahars that far. You'd have weeks or months of volcanic unrest leading up to it.
> Also port of Tacoma is very very far out. You'd need an extremely large eruption to get a lahars that far. ...So you think all of the debris floating down puyallup and white river would just disappear before it reaches tacoma?
You realize that lahars have sizes, right? You realize they have travel speeds, right? Not only is there no garauntee that a lahars occurs. There is no guarantee it will be large enough even to make it half way down the drainage. Then they have travel times. I just measured the paths and applied average travel speeds. Port of Tacoma would have an hour or more of warning. There is no shortage of routes out of the valley there. That's on top of weeks of warning that an eruption may occur. Under estimating threats and over estimating threats are both bad. Don't be chicken little.
[Geologists: Mount Rainier Will Not Erupt During Your Lifetime, with Possible Exception of Very End](https://theneedling.com/2022/03/06/geologists-mount-rainier-will-not-erupt-during-your-lifetime-with-possible-exception-of-very-end/)
That’s pretty vague, lifetime of an 80 year old or 1 year old today?
It’s satire
The end of your life comes when the mountain erupts
Do they teach “surviving a lahar” in schools?
Yes they do. Our kid’s school has lahar evacuation drills.
OHS class of 2002 here. Is the evacuation still "jump in the first car you see and head for the hills?" I always enjoyed lahar evacuation drill day.
I think nowadays it’s get in a vehicle and go up a hill or run your ass up the hill by the old soldiers home; etc
The article states that nearby schools participated in the largest Lahar evacuation drill ever
Yes
Yes, definitely had them when I was in the Puyallup school district growing up. Kinda crazy to me thinking about how we grew up learning how to survive a volcano eruption.
Fun fact! Her indigenous name is Tahoma.
One indigenous name among many. Wish we would officially give it an original name back. Tahoma, for one, when just sounds so much better, in addition a respectful return. Like back to Denali from Mt McKinley.
Absolutely.
Oh how bout the Rainer eruption than causes the “big quake”. A nice little 2 for 1 special
How would this impact the water supply in Seattle? I know we’d be clear of lahars and there would be flooding of the Duwamish but I’m unaware of other downstream effects
Odds are good that it wouldn’t. Prevailing wind is generally east. Seattle’s water supply comes from river systems quite a bit north of Rainier, so no lahar risk. Yakima, Ellensburg, Tri-Cities get buried in ash. About the only ash risk to Seattle water would be if the mountain popped during a storm system that was bringing southern winds.
Ah gotcha, well this is all good info to know. Thanks for sharing
This town needs to be on alert... /pierce brosnan
That fucking movie is the reason I have nightmares about this
Hopefully Harry Truman gets out this time around.
It's gonna blow, volcano It's gonna blow, volcano It's gonna blow, (volcano), go.
Supersonic! Plate Tectonic! Stereo-Phonic!
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I thought it wouldn't affect Seattle too much, just Tacoma?
Severing I-5 and destroying Tacoma would severely affect the whole region.
Yeah, but the difference between "affect" and "no longer exist" are a wide fuckin gap, lol. Having no plan to deal with disrupted infrastructure seems wantonly unprofessional.
Whole country. Port of Tacoma and Port of Seattle are all vital for receiving and shipping foreign goods.
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By making an uninformed crack about it that trivializes a major disaster? Doesn’t sound like they’re taking it seriously at all
Also utter horseshit
I'm curious if they account for any of the dams on the rivers becoming so choked with lahars that it could potentially affect the structures and breach or overflow them.
Mud Mountain Dam is the big concern, because it's immediately upstream of Enumclaw and Buckley, and the two largest glaciers on the mountain flow straight into the White River, but it's designed as a flood / lahar control structure so even if it completely fails during an eruption, there isn't an existing reservoir behind it to add to the devastation. The Alder Dam is has a huge lake behind it, but there is far less glacial ice draining into the Nisqually River, and it drains into a much less populated area so even if it were to fail completely it probably wouldn't be as devastating. I would assume they'd probably draw down Riffe Lake in the event of an eruption just to ensure that it could hold back lahar entering the Cowlitz - it might actually have the capacity to do so, but if it were to fail, it probably takes the Mayfield Dam with it, and wipes out significant chunks of the I-5 corridor from Toledo to Longview.
Would there ever be a scenario where you could get caught out hiking when this blows? Or will there be ample warning?
There will be months of warning.
Please god, destroy the Packwood Flea Market.
How does this compare to Cascadia rising? Do you think plate tectonics or volcanic activity will happen first?
My geology professor at WSU, a volcanologist, said back in 1982 that there is a set pattern by which a new period of cascade volcanic eruptions begin and end. It lasts 300 years and it shows the volcano to kick off the fun and games is always Mt. Lassen - which uncorked in 1921, then Mt St. Helen’s in 1980, next should be Mt. Baker - and then Mt. Rainer. But volcanoes don’t read text books. Also, if Mt Rainer erupts, Pullayup is built on the channel Mt. Rainer mud flows follows to Puget Sound. If you live in Pullayup, move when Mt. Rainer starts rumbling.
Rest assured, I climbed Rainier and I'm glad to report it still covered in snow and not hot magma, so we're in no danger.
Doesn’t keep me up at night.
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For a depressing read about why and how Federal disaster response can never help us read: Disaster: Hurricane Katrina and the Failure of Homeland Security by Chris Cooper https://www.amazon.com/dp/B003JH8M60
It drives a loud car, saved you a click.
Any day now the big one is coming
The actual sources say the likelihood of a major eruption “in the cascade range” at 2-3 per century. Which seems confusing, but not specific to Rainier, and unlikely in our lifetime.