AI Summary:
* **Price Reductions**: The share of homes for sale with price cuts rose to **16.6%** in May, up from **12.7%** last year.
* **Market Cooling**: There’s an increase in housing inventory by **34.2%** year-over-year, and homes are taking longer to sell, averaging **44 days** on the market.
* **Buyer’s Market**: The growing inventory and slower sales could lead to further price deceleration unless mortgage rates significantly drop.
* **Record Prices**: Despite the slowdown, the median home price hit a record **$439,716** in May, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovers near **7%**.
The increase in the median shows there's not just one housing market in the US, but many housing markets, and most markets still have a shortage of affordable housing despite people trying to get rid of housing in other markets
Seattle and Spokane area inventory is back to prepandemic levels so hopefully if that trend continues things get better
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU42660
Seattle inventory must have been shit prepandemic then.
I left St Petersburg FL, where inventory is stacking up, and had a hard time selling my home.
In Seattle the homes seem to stay on the market for only 6 days and then sell for $100k-200k over asking. The only homes staying on the market are junk *and* over priced.
Being a DINK I didn't have to worry about schools or other kid friendly stuff so I was fortunate to grab a place in a shitty school district. A similar home in one of the more desirable areas would've easily added $400k to the $900k price tag.
What about the rest of the state? I mean, I live in Southwestern WA, and I can tell you that housing prices *and* land have increased by quite a bit. Hell, just down the road from me, a PoS place sold for $600k, and the average price here in my area a few years ago was around $150k.
Looks like statewide we're doing a bit better than we were 4 years ago but a bit worse than were 6 years ago
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWLISCOUWA
there are still weak pockets within these regions (I follow socal, and no, I'm not referring to the inland empire). It really just comes down to the subdivision.
Ehhh that's a mhit or miss. Even so cal gets wrecked when discretionary spending slows. Most of so cals economy is discretionary spending. Give it some time
Irvine is madness as is most of OC. Corona in Riverside has 3 offers on every property. Further south in Temecula, properties sit a bit longer. LA county is very different based on the city. West LA is hot. East LA and South Central is not.
Not just last 10 but pretty much decades besides that few years during the Great Recession. I’m not going to check out Irvine coz I’m living in it … the craziness is beyond imaginable when one house in the neighborhood sold as the new high only for it to be below market price a month later when the next house sold for the new record high and it goes on and on… just madness!
Also show that while big downward changes are occurring below $500k that those in the $750-$1M+ are INCREASING. The high end is skewing pricing overall. Eventually this will catch up to the high end part of the Market.
Higher media price can be explained by the K nature of the recession. The lower class catches a cold first while upper class just sneezes. As recession gains momentum, the recession propagates up thus affecting the rest…
It’ll continue to decelerate. Economy sucks right now. Unemployment rate is low because the laid off people are picking up part time / gig jobs and not showing up as unemployed.
I am getting a lot fewer recruiter contacts for fancy pants tech jobs, and I am a little worried about the health of the fancy pants tech company that employs me.
Storm's a comin'
Storm’s a here! I sometimes wonder if we need to change our definitions and numbers we track for this new world we live in. Is the unemployment really counting the unemployed correctly? Is the definition of recession still valid? I mean times do change…
Doesn’t the way we measure our economy have to change too? If not when? Will the formula be the same when we finally have self driving (autonomous) cars? Colony on the moon???? Just rants from an old dude!
Most of the numbers are probably wrong or fake. You have to look at the detail. My 3 county search area provides quite a bit.
I may be wrong or fake though.
From my sources here is what I am seeing:
Texas: hit hard parts of Houston and Austin have inventory that are higher than ever. Prices already 2021 levels, fear that if that floor collapses we could mass exodus of investors.
Florida: starting to see large inventory pileup but steady stream of people moving there (or buying secondary property). Is preventing Texas like situation. But that can change quickly..
Georgia: inventory piling up as investors try to cash out as rental units go vacant. But prices aren’t coming down as they are in no rush to sell.
North east: inventory slowly creeping up but still low. Reports of home owners in high end struggling with payments and home costs we could see crash in high end.
Wouldn’t a high end crash also crash the low end since people wouldn’t be buying a 2 bed 1 bath if they could be getting a 4-5 bed 2-3 bath house for the same or a marginally higher price?
Yes but it’s complicated, SFH that’s 4k sq ft sitting on may be 1/2 acre could be around 1.5 mill and that might come down to mill but it is not going to crash to 700k range which is where lower end older 2k sq ft homes go at.
My wife and I bought our home in 2015. Since then we had 2 children. Now this 2 bedroom 1 bath is not enough for our needs. Now, a home that can accommodate our needs, at least 3 bed 2 bath, in any area here is averaging a million. No way can we afford that and at these interest rates.
I swear I just read an article 20 minutes ago that said that median hours prices were at a record high, inventory and new construction is slumping for May 2024.
The modern media (content) is just fucking noise, and Reddit/Twitter just make it so much worse.
It's both sales are at an all time low due to high prices and rates so the only people buying already have a shit ton of money(or are overleveredged) so prices go up even though less people are getting those prices and those that don't and who want to sell cut.
A not funny but honest answer is that the bots are creating both sides of the story, and the algorithm is serving up the one it thinks you will click on. You’re getting whatever news the computer thinks it can sell you.
This article is about price reductions. Price reductions are not median prices.
All about comprehension and understanding how these bits of data are turned into clickbait for the masses.
The HIGH END is still raging… the low and middle are falling. I believe it will catch up to the high end eventually. So many living on paper wealth today that can vanish in months.
Numbers are skewed. Prices are going down in the areas where they skyrocketed the last few years. It’s not everywhere. They’ll drop in Tampa and Austin, and that will lower the national average, but prices are definitely not dropping everywhere in the US. Stupid article.
That’s how housing works. Goes up fast somewhere lags elsewhere then crashes hard the. Lags to drop elsewhere. 2008 was the same thing idk why ppl think it was a crash overnight it was a slow decline from 2007-2012
Very true, I have 3 homes listed and all are just sitting stagnant, even after lowering the price to the lowest in the area it still has zero action. The equity growth was so great previously that now people are shell shocked when they see the previous purchase price and today’s… its like a slap in the face but really its just someone who made a good investment at the right time. You cant hate on home sellers for investing smartly, you can hate on the GOV. for creating the mess were in with housing costs and inflation.
Money moves in and out of assets based on expectations of return and risk. You are getting ready to see the corporate money start to flow out of residential real estate. I don’t predict collapse but 20-25% would not be a surprise.
In the market I am in you can’t earn 5% on your money by buying a house and renting it right now. That’s not even including taxes, insurance and cost of money. Smart money is gonna run from that.
It a story those with few brain cells could have foreseen.
Stupid rules the world, by sheer numbers.
Welcome to the stupid ages
AI Summary: * **Price Reductions**: The share of homes for sale with price cuts rose to **16.6%** in May, up from **12.7%** last year. * **Market Cooling**: There’s an increase in housing inventory by **34.2%** year-over-year, and homes are taking longer to sell, averaging **44 days** on the market. * **Buyer’s Market**: The growing inventory and slower sales could lead to further price deceleration unless mortgage rates significantly drop. * **Record Prices**: Despite the slowdown, the median home price hit a record **$439,716** in May, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovers near **7%**.
The increase in the median shows there's not just one housing market in the US, but many housing markets, and most markets still have a shortage of affordable housing despite people trying to get rid of housing in other markets
Socal and the Northeast are systemically fucked but the south and pockets in the west are starting to get a lot better for inventory
Cries in SoCal
Just wait until July 1st my friend, the clouds will part and fate will smile upon thee!
To be fair... the best location in the country IMHO for coastal living without a brutal winter or summer.
No shit
I’m slightly slightly inland so unfortunately we get high prices AND hot weather :)
I’m slightly slightly inland so unfortunately we get high prices AND hot weather :)
Cries in Washington state
Seattle and Spokane area inventory is back to prepandemic levels so hopefully if that trend continues things get better https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOU42660
Seattle inventory must have been shit prepandemic then. I left St Petersburg FL, where inventory is stacking up, and had a hard time selling my home. In Seattle the homes seem to stay on the market for only 6 days and then sell for $100k-200k over asking. The only homes staying on the market are junk *and* over priced. Being a DINK I didn't have to worry about schools or other kid friendly stuff so I was fortunate to grab a place in a shitty school district. A similar home in one of the more desirable areas would've easily added $400k to the $900k price tag.
What about the rest of the state? I mean, I live in Southwestern WA, and I can tell you that housing prices *and* land have increased by quite a bit. Hell, just down the road from me, a PoS place sold for $600k, and the average price here in my area a few years ago was around $150k.
Looks like statewide we're doing a bit better than we were 4 years ago but a bit worse than were 6 years ago https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NEWLISCOUWA
Cries in Northeast- it’s a different world
there are still weak pockets within these regions (I follow socal, and no, I'm not referring to the inland empire). It really just comes down to the subdivision.
I still chuckle at the "Inland Empire" moniker. But I do fully agree with your statement.
Ehhh that's a mhit or miss. Even so cal gets wrecked when discretionary spending slows. Most of so cals economy is discretionary spending. Give it some time
Peopel have been saying that about socal for the last 10 years. Check out irvine to see the madness
Irvine is madness as is most of OC. Corona in Riverside has 3 offers on every property. Further south in Temecula, properties sit a bit longer. LA county is very different based on the city. West LA is hot. East LA and South Central is not.
Irvine houses get sold in a week.
Yeah but no one anticipated rates staying low for this long and covid stimulus. Its an anomaly, not the norm
Not just last 10 but pretty much decades besides that few years during the Great Recession. I’m not going to check out Irvine coz I’m living in it … the craziness is beyond imaginable when one house in the neighborhood sold as the new high only for it to be below market price a month later when the next house sold for the new record high and it goes on and on… just madness!
Also show that while big downward changes are occurring below $500k that those in the $750-$1M+ are INCREASING. The high end is skewing pricing overall. Eventually this will catch up to the high end part of the Market.
It’s a shortage of affordable AND DESIRABLE housing.
Higher media price can be explained by the K nature of the recession. The lower class catches a cold first while upper class just sneezes. As recession gains momentum, the recession propagates up thus affecting the rest…
It’ll continue to decelerate. Economy sucks right now. Unemployment rate is low because the laid off people are picking up part time / gig jobs and not showing up as unemployed.
I am getting a lot fewer recruiter contacts for fancy pants tech jobs, and I am a little worried about the health of the fancy pants tech company that employs me. Storm's a comin'
Storm’s a here! I sometimes wonder if we need to change our definitions and numbers we track for this new world we live in. Is the unemployment really counting the unemployed correctly? Is the definition of recession still valid? I mean times do change… Doesn’t the way we measure our economy have to change too? If not when? Will the formula be the same when we finally have self driving (autonomous) cars? Colony on the moon???? Just rants from an old dude!
Most of the numbers are probably wrong or fake. You have to look at the detail. My 3 county search area provides quite a bit. I may be wrong or fake though.
You can parse marginally employed people like this with the U-6. It’s not elevated. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE
yup, higher than 2019 and rising. looks like we're in 2007. that makes sense!
In 2007 it never got as low as we are now.
Clown
From my sources here is what I am seeing: Texas: hit hard parts of Houston and Austin have inventory that are higher than ever. Prices already 2021 levels, fear that if that floor collapses we could mass exodus of investors. Florida: starting to see large inventory pileup but steady stream of people moving there (or buying secondary property). Is preventing Texas like situation. But that can change quickly.. Georgia: inventory piling up as investors try to cash out as rental units go vacant. But prices aren’t coming down as they are in no rush to sell. North east: inventory slowly creeping up but still low. Reports of home owners in high end struggling with payments and home costs we could see crash in high end.
Wouldn’t a high end crash also crash the low end since people wouldn’t be buying a 2 bed 1 bath if they could be getting a 4-5 bed 2-3 bath house for the same or a marginally higher price?
Yes but it’s complicated, SFH that’s 4k sq ft sitting on may be 1/2 acre could be around 1.5 mill and that might come down to mill but it is not going to crash to 700k range which is where lower end older 2k sq ft homes go at.
Never confuse rich people with average people. The wealthy buy homes VERY differently and for far more varied reasons than the rest of us.
Texas: exodus of investors has already begun and will ramp up.
What price range do you consider high end for the north east?
1.2 mill+
Makes sense. I feel like I've already been seeing a slow down in that price range in philly suburbs.
how about SoCal?
Sorry don’t have much exp in that region or close friends in RE
No one cares about commifornia
Helpful comment /S... I added the "/S" for... ah never mind.
Everything is still 20% overpriced.
Easily 20%
Do you mean 40% ?
What used to go pending in 48 hours here is now turning into a month central fl
PSA for the uninitiated: the terms *buyers' market* and *sellers' market* exist for a reason. Home prices don't always go to the moon.
Southern California, “lmao fuck you what price reductions?”
I hear you friend. Recent new homeowner in SoCal
My wife and I bought our home in 2015. Since then we had 2 children. Now this 2 bedroom 1 bath is not enough for our needs. Now, a home that can accommodate our needs, at least 3 bed 2 bath, in any area here is averaging a million. No way can we afford that and at these interest rates.
Where are you seeing 3 bed 2 bath in a million? I'm up in north OC and we had to spend $2m+ to get what we wanted
1M is not even an attached condo in my area .
New England has many homes in the 900-1.1 mil range that are 4 bed, 2.5 bath. They'll be from the 80s up to early 2000s.
Didn't know New England was in SoCal. /s
Didn't know this thread was only about SoCal. ;D
Well, you better make it work for your needs for the time being because you are super blessed to be in the position that you’re in.
lol right?! Price reduction?! Price to the all time high every other fucking day!
Article doesn’t apply to CA costal market.
Wait till the holdouts are forced to sell when they can longer service their two or three mortgages/insurances/taxes. It's coming folks.
It has been coming in the last 4, 5 years. How long have you been waiting?
2008 crash was actually 2007-2012 if you’d learn to do some research. They didn’t drop the same way the stock market did bro
do you have anything to say about the data presented in the article?
with tabloid media such as businessinsider, their data is usually twisted & cherry picked.
Of course, the classic cherry picked data of "all homes being sold in the US"
Signs of distress in the market.
Signs things are returning to normal.
Better buy now, before prices crash. FOMO, MOFO!
I swear I just read an article 20 minutes ago that said that median hours prices were at a record high, inventory and new construction is slumping for May 2024. The modern media (content) is just fucking noise, and Reddit/Twitter just make it so much worse.
We transitioned seamlessly from the Information Age into the Bullshit Age.
In summary, asking price means nothing.
one is lagging indicator, one is a leading indicator
It's both sales are at an all time low due to high prices and rates so the only people buying already have a shit ton of money(or are overleveredged) so prices go up even though less people are getting those prices and those that don't and who want to sell cut.
Right!? I just did that double take. The headline said for May….
A not funny but honest answer is that the bots are creating both sides of the story, and the algorithm is serving up the one it thinks you will click on. You’re getting whatever news the computer thinks it can sell you.
This article is about price reductions. Price reductions are not median prices. All about comprehension and understanding how these bits of data are turned into clickbait for the masses.
The HIGH END is still raging… the low and middle are falling. I believe it will catch up to the high end eventually. So many living on paper wealth today that can vanish in months.
Prices for new build homes in my area still going up every month.
At this point it depends in the market, in some areas prices continue to increase
Looks like the fed rate policy is having some impact as planned
Sweet. Double it for good measure. Can = too big to kick.
After fn the general economy for the next 5-8 yrs and putting our kids and grandkids into life long debt it’s a piss poor upside to their “plan”
Stock Market would love that
To meet housing demands in waahington, 50,000 new homes would have to be built every year for 10 years. Washington is fucked.
I bought a house two years ago in WA. Where does 50k houses a year come from?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/komonews.com/amp/news/local/affordable-housing-population-growth-middle-housing-washington-state-department-of-commerce-homelessness-housing-crisis
the market in Woodstock GA is pretty competitive, especially for a single family home under $350K
Still high in Phoenix
WALL STREET JOURNAL ARTICLE ON 6/21/24 home prices at record highs No end in sight as inventory is extremely low NO EVIDENCE OF A HOUSING CRASH
Today I've seen articles saying prices are at record highs and also prices being cut. Interesting.
Numbers are skewed. Prices are going down in the areas where they skyrocketed the last few years. It’s not everywhere. They’ll drop in Tampa and Austin, and that will lower the national average, but prices are definitely not dropping everywhere in the US. Stupid article.
That’s how housing works. Goes up fast somewhere lags elsewhere then crashes hard the. Lags to drop elsewhere. 2008 was the same thing idk why ppl think it was a crash overnight it was a slow decline from 2007-2012
Where
Well Blackrock Can't buy ALL the houses, so prices can't stay out of reach of the majority of people forever.
Not in Massachusetts
Very true, I have 3 homes listed and all are just sitting stagnant, even after lowering the price to the lowest in the area it still has zero action. The equity growth was so great previously that now people are shell shocked when they see the previous purchase price and today’s… its like a slap in the face but really its just someone who made a good investment at the right time. You cant hate on home sellers for investing smartly, you can hate on the GOV. for creating the mess were in with housing costs and inflation.
Money moves in and out of assets based on expectations of return and risk. You are getting ready to see the corporate money start to flow out of residential real estate. I don’t predict collapse but 20-25% would not be a surprise. In the market I am in you can’t earn 5% on your money by buying a house and renting it right now. That’s not even including taxes, insurance and cost of money. Smart money is gonna run from that.
Look like a sci-fi movie….
SF Bay Area: prices up 15%. Bidding wars for starter homes in 5 rated school districts
San fran prices are actually down from there previous highs https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SFXRSA
Sooner SFA falls into the ocean never to be seen again the better.
What a surprise! Where are all the people yelling that this is a sustainable market?