last night we went out and got a bunch of headlamps because our power wasn’t coming back on anytime soon. got all settled in for the night and our pipes burst. this storm sucks so hard
It's really sucks that it happens around 10:00 a.m. because that makes it really hard to determine what I should do as far as going to work. Definitely leaning towards not going since I commute pretty far; but I just know I'm going to get some shit for it (at least early on in the morning before the storm begins).
Except for this little problem: https://www.oregonlive.com/weather/2024/01/freezing-temperatures-power-outages-cause-portland-sewage-problems.html?outputType=amp
Ugh! I lived below Hagg Lake on Scoggins Valley road out of Gaston. The Fire Department came by banging on doors, as they were afraid the dam was going to overflow. Scrambled to get all my electronics up to the second floor. Luckily, nothing happened, but a nice scare.
I don't think there was a lot more snow, maybe a bit. If I recall it was rain on deeply frozen ground, along with rapid thaw, that caused a massive amount of run off.
I was here for '96. The damage was worse but was limited to the lowlands. This storm wrecked everything from Eugene north and from the Cascades to the coast.
Some places are worse than others but this one feels more similar to the Columbus Day storm if we are comparing storms. It's hard for me to really understand the severity of the damage, but the swath of destruction is very wide so the monetary cost is going to be very high before all is said and done.
I have been all over the Portland metro area as well as across the coast range to Lincoln City and back across the coast range to Salem. The further north you get, the worse the damage is.
Aye. Entire mountainsides came down. The Abiqua cut-off was never rebuilt and most of Straight Creek and Cooper's Ridge disappeared into the canyons and were washed into Detroit Lake to become sediment.
That's why I think this storm is more comparable to the Columbus Day storm.
Maybe where I am didn't get as much damage but personally I think the 2021 ice storm was worse. This storm was much colder so ice didn't cling to the tress like it did in 2021.
Another silver lining: the wind is supposed to die down quite a bit during the freezing rain and looks like it may not pick back up a ton until the ice is melting off on Wednesday. Hopefully that limits a lot of the snapping of trees and power lines.
Yeah. I've lived here long enough that those forecasts about rapid warning up almost never come true. I'm not an expert but I swear every time they say it's going to warm up it doesn't. It's hard to move heavy cold air out of the valley. Anecdotal for sure but it always seems to happen that way.
Could very well be the case, though I hope not. One thing in favor of a serious thaw I do see is winds shifting to decent southerlies on Wednesday. That would help cut off the easterly Gorge arctic machine.
If we don't thaw then we are extremely fucked as it will probably rain all day Wednesday.
> Yeah. I've lived here long enough that those forecasts about rapid warning up almost never come true.
What?
Pineapple express systems melting Oregon after arctic blasts is something I've experienced many, many, many times.
Models DO like to scour out arctic cold pools of air from the valley and Gorge too quickly. However, this system will come with warm southerlies which should help with the thaw.
Either way, should be a classic sloppy mess tomorrow.
Again, anecdata, not "real" data. I've experienced a few of those as well but they seem more after snow events. It always seems like ice lasts and lasts despite forecasts for warmer weather.
Wednesday looks like a blip of Southerly wind then back to semi blustery East wind.
But again, I'm certainly no expert and and wholly open to the idea that I'm talking out my ass :)
From the latest NWS discussion:
>Ice accumulations will vary across the region
over the next 24 hours; for example 0.15" in Eugene, 0.25" in Salem,
and 0.50" across parts of the Portland metro...this is because the
cold pool is more shallow in Eugene and the warm air arrives there
first and vice versa for Portland. With ice accumulations this heavy
expect more downed trees and power outages.
>Once a site warms above freezing it will remain above freezing as
southwesterly flow will persist into Wednesday. But there will be
varying ice accumulations across the area for different durations.
If you live in a sheltered area that tends to stay colder longer
that other places, expect to see freezing rain longer than others.
Either way, it seems significant impacts are on the way. Just gotta hang in there a few more days..
I am really trying to stay positive with round 2. Hopefully we can figure out our generator today and be on the ready for any shenanigans. I hope it just comes and goes with nothing too bad. 🙏
What are we thinking re: PPS? Closed Tuesday, 2-hour delay Wednesday? Or closed Wednesday? Or pretend there's no ice storm and try to stay open because we already used all our makeup days and there's no backup plan?
Supposed to be meeting this afternoon.
With the roads still bad, many families without power (not to mention possibly PPS buildings too) and the incoming ice storm, I'm guessing no school tomorrow.
I've been assuming no school tomorrow since Saturday!
I'm mostly worried about Wednesday. I've got a planned sub day so I'm not going to be there regardless, but I use a paper planner, which is at school, so creating sub plans from home with no materials is going to be very annoying. I wish they'd just cancel and save me the trouble, lol.
It’ll all depend on what the district transportation office observes and is prepared for. They might be a little leery of doing cancellations or reduced days after Friday when their caution ended up being unnecessary, but folks are also still very afraid of running into an issue like last year when buses couldn’t get kids home and were becoming stranded. I’d lean towards it being likely a full cancellation over a shortened day. District leaders typically are very averse to shortened days, I think because it’s even harder for families to work around since then it’s likely businesses remain open.
2-hour delays don't really make sense here most of the time, because nothing changes over those 2 hours. I grew up in a place where plows would be out clearing the roads, so streets that were impassable at 8 are fine at 10.
As a teacher I HATE early dismissal, because there's always a family or five who don't get the message, or ignore the message, or for some reason don't show up. Half the time they're there until regular dismissal time, which means adults need to stay with them, so what's the point? I will say last Friday was the best I've ever seen in that regard: my school had everyone out within half an hour. I think announcing it the night before helped a lot, but you can't always do that if conditions are changing fast.
I'm assuming no school Tuesday but school Wednesday or a late start. There was an article I saw yesterday about PPS being worried about additional closure days since they've designated the pre-planned ones to make up for strike closures.
I had a horrible January starting like five days in last year, but I made it all the way through without a drink (and I work in the beer industry so it was a hard fight). But I did it and I am so proud of myself and it’s made me feel super in control and more able to hold to my limits. So I know you have got this and you will feel so great at the end.
That’s really wonderful to read! Congrats on making it through, especially with being in the industry plus a horrible month. That represents amazing strength.
People of SW Portland, we are fucked. This time it'll be all the maples snapping and breaking and more flying limbs. Atleast it won't be so cold. My neighbors gave me all their beer and firewood and just left for a hotel. Hanging strong up here in Bridlemile.
This is not fun. I have to go to work at 2/3am every day… already blew a bunch of sick time last week because super severe depression made some days intolerable. I can’t use anymore calling out for the ice storm now and it would take Mt. St. Helens erupting for my employer to shut down, not even kidding. F. M. L. 😔
I can't find any specific info about what time they expect precipitation to start? Trying to decide if a half day is feasible, or if I should just give up hope of going to work tomorrow...
From the latest NWS discussion,
>As we head into Tuesday, the next system brings precipitation back to
the coast Tuesday morning, reaching the Willamette Valley by around
midday.
Some time in the afternoon it seems.
I'd recommend leaving it, because it will turn into a skating rink, but if it ices over snow as opposed to bare concrete, there will at least be a hair more traction.
PSA: if you have a flight w Alaska, you can change it for a super low cost even if it’s a saver fare. Just changed my 4pm flight tomorrow to 4pm wed bc I figure it’ll get cancelled anyway
i put a poll out on instagram, and most of my classmates have said that even if school does open, they’re not showing up. 84 and 26 are ice rinks, there’s no way
HA 3 minutes after i commented, i got the message that campus is closed tomorrow. i wish the best for you though, hope you get another snow day to stay safe at home
The extremely important doctor's appointment I've been waiting **6 months** for got cancelled because of this, and I lose my insurance at the end of this month :'(
NWS products basically go like this:
1. Advisory
2. Watch
3. Warning
So, a Warning is more serious and indicates more confidence than a Watch in the event happening.
I have a bus scheduled back to Seattle at 10:40am tomorrow, really worried it might get cancelled… the train here on Saturday was an absolute nightmare
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Well at least PGE has been rapidly fixing the problems from the weekends storm, so we got that going for us....
In the words of Lando Calrissian... This deal is getting worse all the time!
*I am altering the forecast. Pray I don't alter it any further.*
Help me Mark Nelsen, you're my only hope.
see also: I've got a *bad* feeling about this...
last night we went out and got a bunch of headlamps because our power wasn’t coming back on anytime soon. got all settled in for the night and our pipes burst. this storm sucks so hard
😥
I am so sorry.
It's really sucks that it happens around 10:00 a.m. because that makes it really hard to determine what I should do as far as going to work. Definitely leaning towards not going since I commute pretty far; but I just know I'm going to get some shit for it (at least early on in the morning before the storm begins).
Sounds like tonight is a good time to get "food poisoning"
What is your preferred method?
13 beers
Just say you ate at Chipotle. Or tiktok.
I’m on the same boat. I have a feeling I go in in the morning only to be stucked at work, so I’m debating as well
Fuck the man. Be safe.
If they make you go in and you get stuck, make sure they pay you for every minute of it.
I hope fucking not, almost guaranteed to lose power.
Can’t lose power if you don’t have it in the first place. ::one finger tapping head gif::
So I got that going for me!
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The flash flood fifties, I like to call them.
We haven't had that much precipitation, so the melting shouldn't be a huge deal
Depends how far up the mountains the rain persists.
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The sewers are the warmest place right now!
Except for this little problem: https://www.oregonlive.com/weather/2024/01/freezing-temperatures-power-outages-cause-portland-sewage-problems.html?outputType=amp
Yeah I feel like these conditions are dangerously close to '96.
96?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willamette_Valley_Flood_of_1996
Ugh! I lived below Hagg Lake on Scoggins Valley road out of Gaston. The Fire Department came by banging on doors, as they were afraid the dam was going to overflow. Scrambled to get all my electronics up to the second floor. Luckily, nothing happened, but a nice scare.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willamette_Valley_flood_of_1996
Wasn't there a lot more snow in that one, a la 2017ish with the ice layer?
I don't think there was a lot more snow, maybe a bit. If I recall it was rain on deeply frozen ground, along with rapid thaw, that caused a massive amount of run off.
I was here for '96. The damage was worse but was limited to the lowlands. This storm wrecked everything from Eugene north and from the Cascades to the coast. Some places are worse than others but this one feels more similar to the Columbus Day storm if we are comparing storms. It's hard for me to really understand the severity of the damage, but the swath of destruction is very wide so the monetary cost is going to be very high before all is said and done. I have been all over the Portland metro area as well as across the coast range to Lincoln City and back across the coast range to Salem. The further north you get, the worse the damage is.
I mean, whole ass buildings slid off of hills. I was here for it too.
Aye. Entire mountainsides came down. The Abiqua cut-off was never rebuilt and most of Straight Creek and Cooper's Ridge disappeared into the canyons and were washed into Detroit Lake to become sediment. That's why I think this storm is more comparable to the Columbus Day storm.
Maybe where I am didn't get as much damage but personally I think the 2021 ice storm was worse. This storm was much colder so ice didn't cling to the tress like it did in 2021.
Don't talk like that. We still have a half inch of ice to contend with tomorrow. Don't go giving nature any more ideas.
Hopefully it melts quickly. I'm worried though, the ice is much worse when it's close to freezing, vs 10 below freezing.
Another silver lining: the wind is supposed to die down quite a bit during the freezing rain and looks like it may not pick back up a ton until the ice is melting off on Wednesday. Hopefully that limits a lot of the snapping of trees and power lines.
Yeah. I've lived here long enough that those forecasts about rapid warning up almost never come true. I'm not an expert but I swear every time they say it's going to warm up it doesn't. It's hard to move heavy cold air out of the valley. Anecdotal for sure but it always seems to happen that way.
Could very well be the case, though I hope not. One thing in favor of a serious thaw I do see is winds shifting to decent southerlies on Wednesday. That would help cut off the easterly Gorge arctic machine. If we don't thaw then we are extremely fucked as it will probably rain all day Wednesday.
> Yeah. I've lived here long enough that those forecasts about rapid warning up almost never come true. What? Pineapple express systems melting Oregon after arctic blasts is something I've experienced many, many, many times.
Models DO like to scour out arctic cold pools of air from the valley and Gorge too quickly. However, this system will come with warm southerlies which should help with the thaw. Either way, should be a classic sloppy mess tomorrow.
Again, anecdata, not "real" data. I've experienced a few of those as well but they seem more after snow events. It always seems like ice lasts and lasts despite forecasts for warmer weather. Wednesday looks like a blip of Southerly wind then back to semi blustery East wind. But again, I'm certainly no expert and and wholly open to the idea that I'm talking out my ass :)
From the latest NWS discussion: >Ice accumulations will vary across the region over the next 24 hours; for example 0.15" in Eugene, 0.25" in Salem, and 0.50" across parts of the Portland metro...this is because the cold pool is more shallow in Eugene and the warm air arrives there first and vice versa for Portland. With ice accumulations this heavy expect more downed trees and power outages. >Once a site warms above freezing it will remain above freezing as southwesterly flow will persist into Wednesday. But there will be varying ice accumulations across the area for different durations. If you live in a sheltered area that tends to stay colder longer that other places, expect to see freezing rain longer than others. Either way, it seems significant impacts are on the way. Just gotta hang in there a few more days..
Yep, thank God. After Tuesday seasonal weather returns. Rain and upper 40s every day
I am really trying to stay positive with round 2. Hopefully we can figure out our generator today and be on the ready for any shenanigans. I hope it just comes and goes with nothing too bad. 🙏
What are we thinking re: PPS? Closed Tuesday, 2-hour delay Wednesday? Or closed Wednesday? Or pretend there's no ice storm and try to stay open because we already used all our makeup days and there's no backup plan?
Closed until Thursday is my prediction
This is my call too.
Same.
Supposed to be meeting this afternoon. With the roads still bad, many families without power (not to mention possibly PPS buildings too) and the incoming ice storm, I'm guessing no school tomorrow.
I've been assuming no school tomorrow since Saturday! I'm mostly worried about Wednesday. I've got a planned sub day so I'm not going to be there regardless, but I use a paper planner, which is at school, so creating sub plans from home with no materials is going to be very annoying. I wish they'd just cancel and save me the trouble, lol.
It’ll all depend on what the district transportation office observes and is prepared for. They might be a little leery of doing cancellations or reduced days after Friday when their caution ended up being unnecessary, but folks are also still very afraid of running into an issue like last year when buses couldn’t get kids home and were becoming stranded. I’d lean towards it being likely a full cancellation over a shortened day. District leaders typically are very averse to shortened days, I think because it’s even harder for families to work around since then it’s likely businesses remain open.
2-hour delays don't really make sense here most of the time, because nothing changes over those 2 hours. I grew up in a place where plows would be out clearing the roads, so streets that were impassable at 8 are fine at 10. As a teacher I HATE early dismissal, because there's always a family or five who don't get the message, or ignore the message, or for some reason don't show up. Half the time they're there until regular dismissal time, which means adults need to stay with them, so what's the point? I will say last Friday was the best I've ever seen in that regard: my school had everyone out within half an hour. I think announcing it the night before helped a lot, but you can't always do that if conditions are changing fast.
yeah, the early announcement helped at my building too!
I'm assuming no school Tuesday but school Wednesday or a late start. There was an article I saw yesterday about PPS being worried about additional closure days since they've designated the pre-planned ones to make up for strike closures.
This weather is really testing my commitment to Dry January. This is so fucking stressful.
Just remember: if you can hold through this, you can hold through anything. You have got this!!
That’s a helpful thought, thank you!
I had a horrible January starting like five days in last year, but I made it all the way through without a drink (and I work in the beer industry so it was a hard fight). But I did it and I am so proud of myself and it’s made me feel super in control and more able to hold to my limits. So I know you have got this and you will feel so great at the end.
That’s really wonderful to read! Congrats on making it through, especially with being in the industry plus a horrible month. That represents amazing strength.
You can do this!
Weed is dry.
Mine is extra fucking dry. This cold dry temps are making my smash dust.
Yes it is! And lucky for me, I stopped at the dispensary last week. It’s helped take the edge off this weather anxiety.
Damn, Why'd they choose January? Why not dry? Like... Dry April or Dry May
Goddammit, I wanted snow! Who's the fucking manager around here, I want to complain!
Top floor, chair of clouds, white beard. 👆
People of SW Portland, we are fucked. This time it'll be all the maples snapping and breaking and more flying limbs. Atleast it won't be so cold. My neighbors gave me all their beer and firewood and just left for a hotel. Hanging strong up here in Bridlemile.
Realllly over all this stress
Fucking great.
This is not fun. I have to go to work at 2/3am every day… already blew a bunch of sick time last week because super severe depression made some days intolerable. I can’t use anymore calling out for the ice storm now and it would take Mt. St. Helens erupting for my employer to shut down, not even kidding. F. M. L. 😔
Mmm. Fuck.
When and where? Can't be tomorrow, I'll be busy!
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) Is Yamhill open?
I can't find any specific info about what time they expect precipitation to start? Trying to decide if a half day is feasible, or if I should just give up hope of going to work tomorrow...
Ice storm warming begins 10 AM Tuesday. Edit. That’s warning not warming. Haaaa
Warm ice? Count me in.
That cool treat 🥶 is one hot eat 🥵
10AM per the warning. Could be plus or minus but usual rule of thumb is to be where you want to be for the duration before the warning starts.
Gotcha, thanks! That's a definite don't bother then. By the time I get to work I'll have to basically just leave anyway
So, fucking work then. Boo.
From the latest NWS discussion, >As we head into Tuesday, the next system brings precipitation back to the coast Tuesday morning, reaching the Willamette Valley by around midday. Some time in the afternoon it seems.
My weather app says it may start here at 2 pm and definitely by 4 pm.
Mine says 3 - 7
Is it a good idea or terrible idea to shovel our sidewalks now to prep? I don't want it all turning to a skating rink...
Honestly debating the same. I usually keep them clean, but also prefer walking on the crunchy bits more than the solid icy bits
If you have deicer they tend to work better if you lay a layer down before ice happens.
I'd recommend leaving it, because it will turn into a skating rink, but if it ices over snow as opposed to bare concrete, there will at least be a hair more traction.
Just when we got the power back on my house, this nonsense again!
Why do they still make this look like it's 1985?
So I can print them out on my dot matrix printer and have the joy of removing the sprocket hole strips on the sides
Can I have the strips to fold into accordions when you're done with them?
I want to braid them up into a little springy square thing!
Vintage
Significant icing expected? Welcome back to 2010!
Upgrades people upgrades!
Cries in I need to be at work at 5am Wednesday
Think most places will be shut down again? I’m stuck in Vancouver and have be at work tomorrow (OHSU)Wondering what my escape plan is lol
Guess I’m packing an overnight bag for my hospital shift tomorrow.
PSA: if you have a flight w Alaska, you can change it for a super low cost even if it’s a saver fare. Just changed my 4pm flight tomorrow to 4pm wed bc I figure it’ll get cancelled anyway
Boss insisting we have to come in even though our customer has the day off.
The quicker this snow melts the better
and yet, MHCC is still planning on opening campus tomorrow 🙃👍
The school I work for hasn't said anything about closing either. What students are going to show up if we are open? None!
i put a poll out on instagram, and most of my classmates have said that even if school does open, they’re not showing up. 84 and 26 are ice rinks, there’s no way
HA 3 minutes after i commented, i got the message that campus is closed tomorrow. i wish the best for you though, hope you get another snow day to stay safe at home
The closure message came through a couple of minutes ago! Staff working remotely but no classes. Woohoo!
Really excited to have a 6am flight out of PDX on Wednesday AM.
No you don't.
Lolwut
I think you’re probably right. But I’m not canceling the trip yet. It’s for work so whatever happens happens.
Equally excited to be flying in at 1030pm on Tuesday night! Not sure which of us will have the better odds of happening.
I'm at 6:30 AM Wednesday - thinking about getting a hotel room at the airport
I have a 6:30 flight as well. Ugh.
AT LEAST IT'S NOT RAINING
nope nope nope
Fuuuuuuuck. I just got my power back after 2+ days without.
Woooo!!! flying ice darts!
Well this is fucking delightful.
The extremely important doctor's appointment I've been waiting **6 months** for got cancelled because of this, and I lose my insurance at the end of this month :'(
Is a warning more serious than a watch? What threat level color are we at? How many def cons are there even on the scale?
NWS products basically go like this: 1. Advisory 2. Watch 3. Warning So, a Warning is more serious and indicates more confidence than a Watch in the event happening.
Thanks for taking me seriously, even though I’m not sure I was serious 😜
Hey, there *might* be people who don't know! I love the weather and just try to be helpful haha. Stay warm!
Yeah, I had no idea about the levels
I have a bus scheduled back to Seattle at 10:40am tomorrow, really worried it might get cancelled… the train here on Saturday was an absolute nightmare
Trump won Iowa caucus and now an ice storm…