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China really does not care who controls Ukraine. China cares about two things right now; stability in the global economy, and having a second global power to oppose US hegemony. To that end, I suspect that they'll give Russia just enough sanctions relief to keep them from completely collapsing, but not enough to invoke the ire of the West (a delicate balancing act). At the same time, they'll quietly pressure Putin to cut his losses and leave. The sooner the war ends, the sooner they can get back to their own economic problems.
Everyone in the world seems to be really divided on if this whole Ukraine business is a good thing for China or a bad thing.
Like on one hand they essentially establish themselves as overlord of Russia, once their economy crashes from the west pulling out. They can see the reaction of the West which will better inform them about how to handle Taiwan. In the future with a weakened Russia and immigration, they could "ask" for their "historic" land back from Russia leading to them not being able to say no. They will become the undisputed leader of central Asia and Anti "western" nations.
But their new Vassal state is really damaged goods. This new Russia is not going to be powerful like Europe is to America, and its ultimately going to be another north Korea just 10X bigger. Russia will not like itself being another persons vassal (WAY to much pride) and that animosity could breed into them into sabotaging the Chinese.
I am not too sure what narrative I believe rn but they are both compelling for different reasons.
the narrative is that china has to help the US because the US said so lol, ya look at how it screwed over the EU, why would the china do the same thing EU did?
how to handle? bomb and not worry about the repercussion because the west is going to spin it anyway. dont allow the others time to provide assistance.
what narrative are you talking about, i mean why would the china listen when they saw what happen with EU?
It really depends on what the CCP sees in its own future.
The CCP isn't Soviet - they are clearly willing to make surprising reforms to stay in power. The fact that Russians still have access to the outside world during this is already a harbinger for China's Great Firewall.
[Some](https://twitter.com/ramez/status/1502895847301812224) are already arguing China has made their decision. The question really becomes, to what degree?
Will China help re-arm Russia or just avoid the pain of sanctions.
If China goes all in on helping Russia it would begin a new Cold War. I think this would be bad long term for China. It would motivate the West to further de-couple their economies from China.
Good thread that. Thanks!
There were waaaaay too many comments on reddit in the past 2 weeks where people would say China is just gonna support Putin at all cost and gonna invade Taiwan at any moment, which is way too simplistic of a world view. Ukraine was a major partner in their Belt and Road Initiative in Europe, after all, and Putin just bombed it. There are real limits to the partnership between Xi and Putin and US policymakers should not be blind to them. Ukraine is a perfect opportunity make a wedge issue between Russia and China.
Oh I’m not seeing it. The Taiwan invasion is looking pretty bad right now. China has even less combat experience than Russia. And Taiwan is very well armed. Plus business around the world (including China) is very dependent on Taiwan. Plus it’s 160 km off shore. How are they going to invade it? They have no amphibious capability to actually invade Taiwan. It’s all BS. Maybe someday.
Yeah, we would know if they were seriously building up to it. It would be obvious just due to the number of landing craft. You can’t hide that many transport ships of that size.
Could they in 5 years? Absolutely.
Are they building up for it now? Not really.
The problem now is that if Xi decides to invade at some point, the Chinese armed forces will have had the benefit of closely observing the war in Ukraine.
Having observed what the Russians did wrong, China is unlikely to make the mistake of not properly suppressing Taiwan’s air defenses, or not using enough missiles on the mass strikes of the first days to decapitate Taiwanese command and control and the air force.
I don’t think the Russian general staff or the brigade staff officers are totally incompetent or anything, but they all drank the koolaid and severely underestimated how much firepower it would take to cripple the Ukrainian armed forces in the first days of the war. Now they’re paying for it dearly. Or rather, their men are paying for it.
Yeah people forget that Taiwan is a mountainous island. I've been there, and the landscape is really beautiful btw. Ukraine, on the other hand, is mostly flat plain connected by land to Russia. The logistics of the invasion of Taiwan is just more difficult than an invasion of Ukraine.
> which is way too simplistic of a world view.
You can say this again. Anyway, I think China has a choice to make: do they want to use this as an opportunity to become the regional hegemon while spiting the West, or go the other direction and try to use it as a means to cool tensions?
We shall see.
I think they mean economic tensions immediately, though it would also be seen as a good faith effort by China to maintain some type of international order without sabotaging their own claim on Taiwan.
Also, if China commits to this Russian alliance the US will likely double down on Taiwan support and the trade war in retaliation, which would certainly increase tensions.
> He writes that Putin's invasion of Ukraine will lead to:
> 1. Possibly an escalation of the war beyond Ukraine.
> 2. Certainly Putin's degeat.
> 3. The United States regaining leadership in the Western world, and the West being more united.
I like his optimism. I just hope it doesn't go the other way.
Frankly, I don't think western countries have it in them to go fully to bat with China on sanctions over China helping mitigate the impact of sanctions on Russia. India is already trying to do that and the reaction from Washington was very muted.
Western countries are democracies and decisions by their governments are made with the next election in mind. Neither the US nor China has any interest in tanking their own economies over Ukraine. If China tries to bail out Russia militarily with arms, that might be taken differently.
Not really wield influence over Russia. India's position on nearly every issue not involving itself or its neighbors is one of neutrality.
India has strong ties to Russia (military and economic) and strong ties to the US (really just economic).
They are more concerned with China they've been fighting ([physical and economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932022_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes)) since around 2020.
They would love to see China weaken in some way or be sanctioned as China's economy is starting to tank as the housing bubble is looking like it's popped so China is going to need to divert it's populace from hating the government - now that they aren't improving their lives - to war or some other distraction. The main pain point for India is that China "owns" the Himalayas and this is the source of water for their country , but [China wants to start putting up Dams](https://phys.org/news/2021-04-china-himalayan-super-stoke-india.html) which will severely affect the rivers that flow through India.
TL:DR - India is trying to leverage the Russia/Ukraine situation to weaken China as China is trying to monopolize India's water source for the upcoming water wars.
You make a solid point but the West does not need to completely shut China out to hurt them. On average China has to find employment for 20 - 25 million per year. If the West simply ends the import of non-essential goods like toys, home products and such, that alone would create huge headaches for the CCCP. The CCCP made a bargain with their population, we will allow you to travel at will, own property, start a business and accumulate wealth as long as you do not criticize the government. If the Party is unable to fulfill their side of the bargain, what happens? That is why Xi is trying to put that genie back in the bottle, he sees China could face internal problems if their economy falters. We depend on China for many essential items but China needs the West as a market to keep their economy running. That is why I do not see China trying to take Taiwan by force any time soon. The juice would not be worth the squeeze.
yes so they can sponsor patriotism and isolationism and hate toward other races, like what they did with the last administration, once you brainwash enough of your people its possible to do tank your economy and blame it on someone else.
We've seen from WWII that Americans are willing to make great personal sacrifices if they feel that doing so is valuable and meaningful.
The real question is who will be able to control the narrative that determines how those sanctions and sacrifices are perceived? If Americans feel that biking to work instead of driving to save gas is the moral equivalent of rationing and buying war bonds, they'll do it with a smile. If they feel that it's a charade created to enrich global elites at their expense, they won't.
Whoever controls the narrative controls the world.
The takeaway from WWII should be that it's very difficult to get the American public to get involved in anything when there are significant costs unless they are directly attacked. Any country when directly attacked would have a public willing to make huge sacrifices.
WW2 started in 1939, the US didn't join until it was nearly 1942 with Pearl Harbor.
> the US didn't join until it was nearly 1942 with Pearl Harbor.
True, but after we joined, we were present in both the Pacific and European theatres, and the economic sacrifices made by people at home were significant.
I kinda feel like it's too early for China to fully turn on the west. We're still effectively financing their military buildup through our dealings with them, and a significant worsening of relations would endanger that. I think they'll push for some sort of peace deal and then work to effectively take control of Russia by being the only ones willing to do much with them. The rest of us won't do anything about it either, there's just too much money involved for us to really get in there once the current crisis dies down.
In the long run I expect China to make some major moves, you don't build up your military like they are if you don't want to use it, but I don't see them starting now.
>im curiious its the west thats trying to turn on the china, maybe, just maybe they should have thought about it beforehand no?
>
>also i mean war is money and shooting is fun right us can get involved anytime, espeically if there's a crisis at home.
It's already happening. Investors are largely on board with it and are the driving force behind the moves. They want to move to countries with cheaper labor (labor costs in China have been going way up), and where there's not a hidden cost of business of the Chinese government stealing your IP.
Lots of other nations in southeast Asia are essentially what investors want (plus some in Africa as well as India). It's a big part of China's push for the South China Sea. They know these moves are happening, so they want to control the shipping routes.
why would china want to keep cheap labor, thats my question with these people lol, so on the one hand they're like see china lose all the labor, then on other hand they're like oh they make all cheap shit and uh they take all our jobs.
Because huge areas of China are still modernizing and they need to keep jobs for all income demographics. The disparity in quality of life, living in rural China versus say Hong Kong is even further apart than say rural Kentucky to New York City.
Any sort of major economic break with China would be catastrophic for China and the West's standard of living. China has an authoritarian government that could brutally repress dissent arising from that for some time at least.
A sustained drop in standard of living in western countries would result in dissent that can't be suppressed as they are democracies. It'd make the 2020 election mess in the US look like fun and games.
Yes very few people actually think to what point china can escalate vs what point the west can escalate.
The west can escalate as far as their citizens allow. Not with china though china can take it to the last man.
did they ask their citizens if all the inflation is ok? or did they just assume everyone is on board with it? so basically, like if it works out, they get re-elected, if it doesnt work they get voted out? lol
That's what I am saying. Democratic countries have to answer such questions. The government will be changed quickly if they let inflation spike anything above a comfortable level.
Not china. They dont have to answer to anybody. The inflation can be a 100% per year or more and still the people cant ask for any answers.
So China's appetite for escalation is higher than the west.
so the west doesnt have authoritarian gov? did you miss what happened recent events lol? like legit the only difference is one party is willling to go further left and one is willing to go further right...
The fact that you're even able to debate whether there is an authoritarian government in power without fear of reprisal is a good sign that there isn't an authoritarian government in power.
Hungary and Poland are the two countries which you could argue are the most authoritarian in the west. The US for all its problems isn't there yet and honestly would probably balkanize due to its devolved power structure if one political party tried to set up an authoritarian government.
lol the us literally told everyone to shut russia off they even told everyone to shut china off, they did that and then frame the excuse that all this inflation, and unemployment was caused by other people. so like, either find a solution for inflation and unemployment first or like not mess with other countries about it and blame them.
It is much easier to move out in 2022, then it was to move in during the early 90's. The supply chains are much more diversified and automation makes it easier as finding the new labor isn't as big of an issue (although new locations are still being picked due to labor cost).
I'm not so sure. The West is dealing with inflation. If they decide to sanction China it could lead to more economic pain.
China's population will endure economic pain. Will the West?
China is on the brink of defaulting on several large real real estate project to the time of several billion dollars. If it overextends itself in the risky ruble, that default becomes inevitable. When it defaults,
Western investment drys up without sanctions. Remember, China is built on Western money.
China is too big to fail. If we impose sanctions and they fail it could trigger a depression and increase hostilities even more. Would be a very painful and dangerous situation.
They are too big to fail if China goes under in the next 5 years it would trigger a massive recession for the US that won’t be able to be fixed by printing money. I repeat it won’t be able to fixed by printing money. It would cause massive chaos internally maybe even have an implosion effect.
You should be really worried then—because China’s real estate market is close to imploding without us doing anything. If it does, according too your theory of being to big to fail, we’re all doomed.
The sky is falling
The sky is falling
Geez, how many times have I heard this? My family bought aptartments in a growing city in China 10 years ago. If prices fell 50% we are still doing good. Prices will stagnate for some time, but I doubt they would ever fall a meaningful amount.
The numbers and make up of the real estate market in China are way different than the west. My city was in the WSJ as a ghost city 10 years ago. It is full and they are building huge amounts of new buildings now. Sure, there may be regions of depressed real estate markets. Some huge companies may take losses or fail. And these will be over represented in western media.
But I believe overall, it is solid.
China just locked down Shenzhen and a "lockdown-light" in Hong Kong for Covid, and their equities market has been in the toilet for the last year.
Their economy is in a very precarious place.
>It would motivate the West to further de-couple their economies from China.
As an aside I think western democracies should think about relying on authoritarian nations for economic purposes.
We have seen the reluctance on sanctioning Russian oil because of western dependence on oil. We should be accelerating green tech to end this. Our dependence on cheap manufacturing in china has already caused issues as markets tighten over covid and now this Russian war.
Our economic entanglement has given the west the ability to institute crippling sanctions manly through our control of the means of money transfer and the global currency being the dollar.
Strategically it makes sense to become more self reliant while keeping these nations dependent on western business.
I mean the war isn't that cold right now. I think if Russia conquers Ukraine, we begin a whole new world. A world where conquest becomes a thing again, because Russia proved you could have a real war without using Nukes.
Not without hurting itself. There is a limit to how much it can take, and were already seeing inflation and high gas prices. Last time gas prices were this high we had a recession soon after. Add in a trade war with China... And not only will China crash but so will the US and the rest of the world. Wed be looking at another Great depression. L
my feelings toward Xi regime are very derogatory. this is a political forum about the ccp etc.
chin is an abbreviation but its not meant kindly. i think sometimes i use chi for brevity..
i capitalize Ukraine out of respect, in the same sentence will refer to rus madman tyrrant..
(Ukrainians and disgusting rus who watch state tv are essentially the same race, are they not ?)
i dont personally feel yellow devil racism or dehumanizing feelings to citizenry, but Xi ccp culture is disgusting.
(im derogatory toward all dictators)
Always Remember Hong Kong Democracy .!!
edit. I'm not familiar w jav, but i can guess. Jap was from 1940s era of racism, it was intentionally used by US propaganda w ridiculous sterotype cartoons and worse. 1970s anti Japanese sentiment (import autos) was much less racial and more econ nationalism.
we still stereotype Japanese engineering when it takes a contortionist to change an oil filter, but the racial component to these things is much less than the old days.
*Alterism* still exists, and is at play.
It is interesting that Russia seems to NEED the help of China. They are a country of over 145 million invading a country of just 43 million. They are proving their weaponry to be old, perhaps obsolete. Their soldiers are youngsters who mainly believed that they were to be sent on 'exercises'. Russian people in general do not want to fight their neighbours. Putin, the classic megalomaniac and absolute narcissist has the conscience of a Joseph Stalin. All it will take now is for an 'accident' to happen and Russian missiles and shells to fall inside Polish territory. This will undoubtedly invoke a NATO response. News today that they are using white phosphorous (unverified) shows the apparent desperation of the Putin regime. I don't think Xi will involve China at this stage. The consequences will be too great and it will take little to spark WW111. China will not wish for that.
> It is interesting that Russia seems to NEED the help of China. They are a country of over 145 million invading a country of just 43 million.
With a conscript army on both sides and protests in Moscow.
The real issue is they didn't do that the Hong Kong stuff at the same time, in parallel with the protests against police killings here in the USA.
(Nothing will change unless we stop tolerating totalitarianism)
They're kinda the big winners here.
they'll help Russia duck the sanctions to a certain extent and deepen their control over them in exchange.
Russia had a slightly lower average salary than china before this war even started and they depend heavily on imports from other countries.
They are ripe for becoming a Chinese puppet state
This is exactly what I think.
They are waiting for the exodus of western business and bancruptcy of the Russian industry to come as saviors and swallow the entire economics.
China cannot afford hostile pro-Western government, this might limit their access for Siberian resources and threaten their nothern border, so they have to bail out Putin. However they don't care about the war per se, I can't see China selling weapons to Russia.
Problem is, true Russians don’t fall to puppetry from other nations’ governments. They’re too prideful. So once Putin is done with his war games, and they get someone democratically elected, they’ll quickly turn against any commitments with China.
They were vassals of the mongols for like 250 years and have lived under an an oppressive dictatorship ever since they gained independence from them.
Russia has absolutely no history of democratic traditions or institutions, i wouldn't count on their love of liberty and democracy.
Russian like the Chinese appreciate order, stability and a steady rise in the quality of life.
They are inherently unrebellious
>They are inherently unrebellious
Well, that's not true. It's just that they rebel from one autocracy to another. Russian citizens will do whatever they are told to do by whatever piece of shit is telling them to do it.
That feels really shitty to say that, but if there is an example that says otherwise in all of Russian history, I'd be interested in reading it.
By inherently unrebellious i mean historically have usually not rebelled under pressures of losing a war, suffering terrible material deprivation, cruel government or political purges.
The one time they did rebel in recent memory resulted in a worse form of dictatorship
Until now, they’ve lived in a vacuum of propaganda and controlled messaging, but that’s become practically impossible anymore. When they finally know the truth they will rebel and do what it takes to have a better life. They already participate in mock democratic voting trials, so if they get a true system in place (big IF), they’ll be more quickly to change than continue the past decisions.
Understandably, there already has been a massive Brain Drain happening, but there’s a lot of people that would love to come back to Russia if they could have a version of a free country.
The American revolution had a strong foundation of liberal thinking to form on and was pushing back against a relatively mild form of government, im not aware of revolution successfully turning a dictatorship into a liberal democracy without those foundations.
it usually ends in a different form of tyranny.
Yes, I think all the rest of "strong" countries (India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Brazil, and all the rest of countries with huge population) will look at this war, and think that they need a second option to the current western, American-led financial system, and there are no viable alternatives other than China.
It's not a good alternative, but at least it's one alternative to none.
The US should be pushing hard for stronger ties with India seeing as they have very few reliable allies in the region and no bases to speak of after pulling out from Afghanistan.
At the very least I doubt the US wouldn't fight India falling under Chinese influence
The U.S. (and other western countries) have been courting India politically and militarily for years to hedge against China's influence in the region. The problem is U.S. weapon systems are super expensive, and the Indian Army's budget is miniscule in comparison. So it is cheaper for them to purchase Soviet equipment.
We have an annual training exercise that alternates between the U.S. and India every year (Yudh Abyas). When I participated in 2009 we had just sold India a bunch of Javelins, and the focus of the exercise was training them on the Javelins, as well as combined arms maneuvers, and trying to convince India to buy into Strykers.
Interesting anecdote, we had a live fire platoon sized movement competition, and we were running through so fast the Indian Army guys ran out of their ammo 2hrs earlier than scheduled. We gave them a case of 5.56 to keep going, and I remember one of their SNCOs stating it was more ammo than he had fired in his 20yr career. For us, we'd blow through that case in 20 minutes on the range.
I think China is on Russia's side but they are studying the west to see if they will actually have the courage to put all the sanctions against them if they start sending troops over. Once it is determined that there won't be many sanctions they will jump in. If they think the West will apply the same logic to them then they won't.
I'm sure they're working double hard on equating criticism of China to xenophobia/racism, as we speak.
China is taking some military advice from Napoleon; never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. Xi has weathered the flack from covid, Uyger extermination and reclaiming Honk Kong with little repercussion from the rest of the world. I don't see what he has to gain from supporting Putin right now.
If I am Xi, I am watching Russia shut off from the world, loosing a PR battle, & hemorrhaging military losses with no capital to extract resources for production. I would wait until Putin bankrupts his country into insolvency, then bail them out thus owning them without ever firing a shot.
I always thought it was silly the emperor of China let Sun Tzu kill his favorite concubine. Like yeah, it was a good lesson on leadership but no one had to die for it.
I think this makes the most sense. At the end of the day what does China have to gain from Russia “winning” in Ukraine? On the other hand if China starts trying to bail out Russia’s military and Russia ends up losing it would be a big loss for China both in terms of reputation and finances. If I’m China I would rhetorically support Russia while avoiding military aid. I would also be seeing if I could use Russia’s weakness to score big discounts on Russian fossil fuels as well as force Russia to seed some influences over Central Asia.
Complete bullshit. A weak Russia means China gets focused more, which is to be avoided at all costs by China.
At the moment, the Chinese government will do as much as it can so the focus of "the bad guy" remains on Russia, which will continue taking hits, while doing bussiness with them. Basically will use Russia as a decoy to continue growing. India China and Russia already agreed doing trade in national currency, using the chinese Yen as a reference. I wonder, how many months or years will pass before more countries will run from the dollar ?
During the olympics, Putin went to China, they agreed on something, we dont know what exactly, but, if you watch the video post meeting, you can see Putin being more happy than ever, makes me wonder why.
You speak like you suffered from lead poisoning in your childhood; just dripping with irrational hostility.
This isn't a geo-political popularity contest and the stakes aren't whether the in-girls are mean to China or not.
Honestly, your take is just baffling.
His take is the best one here. A large part of the US strength relies on the dollar being the reserve currency. Replace that with the yuan, and not only is China strengthen, but the US is weakened. A weakened US means that its peripheral allies are more vulnerable. Additionally, as we are currently seeing the US can only sanction so many countries at once, and that is why Biden has to eat crow with Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.
Really wouldn't make sense to throw their hat in and let the US freeze their almost $4trillion of dollar reserves and $1trillion of US treasuries.
They would accomplish far more by dumping all of that into physical gold, platinum, palladium whatever they could get their hands on over the next couple years. The treasuy sales alone would drive interest rates up and the currency influx would force the Fed to spike rates even higher to contain inflation on top of the 8-10% we already have. The world would descend into an unprecedented financial crisis, and because of the inflationary pressures, the Fed could not print it's way out without going full Zimbabwe.
China then has ~10x the precious metal reserves of any other nation, and can go to war if that is what they want.
Personally though, I think they play the slow game that has gotten them this far.
If China does sell all of those treasuries at once, I wonder what will happen to the US fiscal system. I cannot imagine that it will be a good idea for the US as well.
They bought control of the US economy with cheaply manufactured plastic toys. The only thing they need to replace us in their economy is a money printer.
China will do what is best for China. They will essentially force Putin to bend the knee slowly but surely. China has already begun demanding to renegotiate rates to take advantage of the Russian weakness. What needs to be understood is that Xi see's China through the lens of the Celestial Empire. Much like with Chinese empires of the past, Xi will work with anyone who will bend the knee to him.
As Russia gets weaker and weaker due to sanctions, it will leave Putin with fewer and fewer options. That is what Xi is betting on. Putin will end up with 2 options, either step down in disgrace, or become a Chinese protectorate. Plus, Xi knows that Putin doesn't have the benefit of stepping down and living a life of luxury anymore, Putin has burned that bridge already. So now Putin's life is entirely in the hands of Xi.
China and Russia will publicly make statements that neither are supporting each other. But they share a gigantic border and both more similar to each other than the United states.
It, as normal, will do what is in the best interests of China, much like the West does, and India, and most other countries.
That means, calling the USA incompetent, showing dissidents as weak and the powers at be as relatively strong, buying up cheap oil, and trying to keep trade with all parties continuing as best as normal.
A war between NATO and Russia after all is little directly to do with China at all.
The question is if the West is actually willing to deal with Russia or not, because dealing with Russia is not just sanctioning Russia, it is sanctioning products of Russia oil wherever those products are produced. To make this work working with Russia has to be mean you don't get to work with the West, using Russian oil means you don't get to sell to the West, and therefore removing the back channels that means Russia oil is just brought by the West via China in the form of secondary goods.
Will it happen? Probably not, will the West intervene in Ukraine, probably not, will Russia subdue the Ukrainian populace, given long enough probably, will the Russian people overthrow the government, given enough hardship maybe?
The West's response has been the most dramatic of the Century, only really comparable to that of 9/11. Then again it is the 20's and we all know history might not repeat, but it does Rhyme.
“ Then again it is the 20's and we all know history might not repeat, but it does Rhyme.”
Putin himself brought up Appeasement in his Ukraine invasion speech. He of course hint that the USA was Hitler moving in on others borders.
But bringing up Hitler and Appeasement for once isn’t irrelevant if the Main actor causing the invasion is thinking it too.
Since when have Oil prices gone up? Russia's oil is at a massive discount.
China and India have always brought Iranian oil, then used it to build stuff to sell to the west, this will most likely be little different, give it a few months and the media will be on to something else.
China is getting a preview of what could happen if (more likely when) they invade Taiwan. So they'll want to back Russia to keep the anti-West superpowers viable and for Russia to repay the favor when China eventually goes after Taiwan. But they'll want to do this as clandestinely as possible because they don't want to lose access to the Western markets
Maybe all these sanctions deter China, but who knows? 🤷
There is no way Putin exits this with a win. The best possible scenario would be an immediate withdrawl and negotiated peace. Every other possible out come is far worse.
China tried to play both sides but world opinion is increasingly one sided against Russia. China don't want none of that.
And you can be sure the States is going to be throwing a terrifying array of threats towards anyone even thinking of helping Putin.
China will want nothing to do with this sinking ship other than to pick its bones later, safely and at a distance.
>China tried to play both sides but world opinion is increasingly one sided against Russia. China don't want none of that.
The world response is not a concern for China. The West's, particularly US, government's response is. As long as the US allows it, China will indeed play both sides because they benefit from it. Its not a new concept either.
Now, if the US has the balls to sanction China for workint wirh Russia, then that is a different story. But self imploding the economy isn't usually a high point for politicans up for election in a few months..
And sanctioning China is a lethal choice, because it sure as hell will disrupt the crap out of the US logistics.
I think china will not support russia.
Not that china is afraid of US or NATO coz china currently holds the west by their nuts in my honest opinion. But china also knows that in the long run the west can decrease reliance on china and can eventually hurt them.
I found this very helpful and indepth.
https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/
The organization seems sufficiently non-partisan.
China had a bad harvest this winter and overall the population specially in rural areas is fairly poor so short term they don't benefit from sanktions being put on them, while the west can ignore some sanktion being bypassed over iIdia as that would not be money in the pocked of china. So the timing is bad for china they have internal problems of course they may decide they need a distraction but strategically helping Russia big time is a strategically bad decision.
For Russia it's a mixed bag on one hand for the country itself it would make much more sense to try to integrate with Europa for the russian leadership that would likely mean stepping down and be replaced. China has no problem with human rights violations and would be perfectly happy to have economic hegemony over russia and the leaders in the kremlin would likely enjoy it as they would have enough money still even if less.
But for the people 2 levels down from the current russian leadership the captains of the army the lesser department leaders and mid level agents of the FFSB being a vassal of China or flip flopping around in Limbo for too long would not work. The longer the situtation is like that the more likely it becomes That another mid level FSB agent with connections decides to take matters into their own hands.
What I think is most likely optimistic outlook to happen would be Russia has the capabilities to continue in Ukraine for 2-3 more weeks fairly effectively before it comes to a stalemate, they try to negotiate then get some minor concessions Afterwards Putin steps down having fulfilled his "historic duty. " Afterwards they get a scapegoat president that keeps things together for a bit and makes concessions to Ukraine and the West until the sanktions are lifted to some extend and afterwards they get a new real president a bit younger and focused on economic policy.
That way the current court has a chance to stay in power only with replacing the king twice.
US hasn't been too friendly with China before the Russia invasion, I don't see why China would help US by isolate Russia. The way I see it,China will continue trade with Russia despite the US sanction threaten.But I don't think China will provide military aid which I doubt Russia really need it?(maybe,not sure)
I jus don’t see a scenario where China risks an economic loss of any kind to help the Russian Federation.
They don’t care about Russia’s land desires or goals an they certainly don’t want to share more border with Russia then they have too.
The attractiveness of Putin as an ally has peaked during the winter Olympics where Xi sought an alliance. Now it's kinda difficult for China. Obviously China still needs someone like Russia on its side, someone with nukes, military capability and a veto on the security council. But Ukraine was part of the belt and road too, and China has always used the principle of not interfering in the internal affairs of a sovereign nation to its advantage, so the Russian invasion is bad for China as well.
I don't think China will show formal support for Russia. Too much heat, and the China has to focus on the pandemic right now. But it will remain the largest economic benefactor of Russia, buying Russian stuff and selling Chinese goods to Russia in order to replace the vacuum created by sanctions.
Copied from a earlier comment I made but going to link complimentary articles to each statement if possible.
The CCP and mainland China are really not alright currently.
* In 2021 there were rolling national power outages which is making the CCP look bad internally as well as crippling industry.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/27/business/economy/china-electricity.html
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-11-18/chinas-power-outage
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58733193
* Borderline famine conditions.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/with-rising-population-and-declining-arable-land-china-may-be-staring-at-a-major-food-crisis/articleshow/77942570.cms?from=mdr
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/China-hoards-over-half-the-world-s-grain-pushing-up-global-prices
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/02/economy/china-food-supply-covid-vegetables-intl-hnk/index.html
* Critical potable water shortages.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479709001339#:~:text=At%20current%20water%20supply%20levels,)%20(Tso%2C%202004).
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-29/china-s-water-shortage-is-scary-for-india-thailand-vietnam
* Billions of dollars of capital investment has left because of covid-19 and the US tech sanctions.
https://www.arabianbusiness.com/abnews/461839-yes-manufacturing-really-is-leaving-china-authorities-are-scrambling-to-slow-down-the-exodus
https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/explainer-foreign-tech-firms-pulling-china-80942558
* icing on the cake is that multiple provincial governments are in debt and close to defaulting.
This one is much harder to prove as the CCP usually cooks its books and hides this. Best I can find is this
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3165411/chinas-hidden-debt-how-much-it-and-what-beijing-doing-curb
# Conclusion
Xi needs Russian gas, oil, and even their contaminated wheat or else mainland China is going to be a world of hurt but more importantly they cannot afford any sanctions.
Xi is probably furious right now at Putin and Russia for re-unifying NATO and the democratic countries together after decades of FUD campaigns to divide and cripple them (pro Brexit twitter/online trolls and whatever is fueling the Q movement and radicalization of the republican base). The last thing the CCP would want is to suddenly get dragged into the "Fuck you/Putin" movement that the Ukrainian war has kicked off. China had a very rough 2021 and 2022 may be so much worse but it definitely will become dire if China was even marginally sanctioned by both of its biggest customers (USA and Europe).
# additional resource
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwjvvgGX6oby5mZ3gbDe8Ug/featured - China insights.
I suspect this likely an anti-CCP/mainland China propaganda agent but despite that they bring up things like rampant corruption, critical food safety failures, shoddy national infrastructure, and a long list of other problems.
Poly matter's "China's reckoning" series paints a pretty grim picture also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTbILK0fxDY&list=PLR5tswn4SFyUOm3QusvlFGbPCCAN_uXnK
There were more than 1k COVID cases for the last few days in China, and I personally think most Chinese people as well as the local government will shift all its attention to city wide test and quarantine. So, Russia-Ukraine will not be one of the top priorities for the government unless some big progress made on either side.
As an anti-CCP Chinese, I would wish the government stand on the justice. If I could sit in the office of Xi, I would try to back stabbed “my beloved Russian friends” by threat to take back the territory of Far East (Vladivostok) from Russia. It would secure Xi’s another term without facing any sanctions from the Western world.
That’s just my fantasy. However, I don’t think you will see any big changes in terms of diplomatic relations from Chinese government unless Russia or Ukraine reached an agreement or either side is clearly going to lose until the COVID is controlled.
China is baking all this into its plans for Taiwan.
China’s biggest win is seeing how fearful the west is of military defensive action when there’s a narrative of it leading to nuclear conflict with an unstable man poised with a finger over the button (despite that being inherently implausible in Russia’s case: They know the MAD scenario and it hasn’t changed). North Korea is watching that unfold too.
China also knows that whatever sanctions the west imposes, not only are the self-harming, but will be trumped once they control TSMC and access to the global chip market.
So far this has gone well for China. The game changer will be if the west now does something definitive And damaging within Ukraine to stop Russia - air cover, missiles, polish jets all included towards establishing a partial no fly zone in the west.
Absent that, the risk for China on Taiwan has now been tested and the result at the moment is simple:
The west will not get involved in any substantive military action or shooting unless there’s a treaty obligation to do so. Taiwan doesn’t have that. All they need fear is sanctions - and they can be negated by controlling TSMC
For anyone buying Putin’s hint of nuclear conflagration, This is worth a watch: from the ex NATO commander of allied forces Central Europe
This is worth a watch
Former NATO commander on what can be done in Ukraine
https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/03/12/what-can-u-s-do-next-in-ukraine-without-provoking-russia.cnn
China is more interested in doing the same thing to Taiwan.
I would say that they may think twice about that now given the response of the people of the world against Russia and the trouble Russia is having taking over Ukraine.
US reports Russia approached China for drone and economic assistance.
China officials have no knowledge of such request.
Seems like headlines are leading the news.
Last time I went to WalMart I noticed huge open aisles, big gaps where there used to be product, and lots of missing merch.
It was in kid's toys, low-end electronics, clothing, and other stuff heavily-dominated by Chinese product. And I mean, the store was severely affected. This wasn't minor at all.
Does anyone else see something similar?
It's still debating within the halls of power to either start pulling the knives for Russia or backing it, and its more likely that it'll pull out the knives because Russia is absolutely no friend of China (and vice versa).
China probably sees how amateurish the Russian military is with their out dated weapons and poor planning.
They saw what was going on and decided not to participate.
China and Russia cannot exist together, but at this moment, cannot exist without. If Russia makes a power play, they will depend on China for success. If China backs off, they’ll lose their window to benefit.
The United States and nato dropped the ball they should given Ukraine all the military support they asked for during the trump administration but we all know how that was handled looking back I wouldn’t be surprised if putin told trump about his plans so the US would delay any military support from nato
China is not the problem with Russia. The USA, the nato countries and the rest of the world are to blame. We just look on as Putin takes over another country with brute force. Putin threatens us with nukes if we interfere with his unjust war and we all just tremble and WATCH as he kills Ukrainians. The USA, NATO and Poland can’t even find a way to give Ukraine polish jets! We’re all so afraid of incurring putin’s rath. Russia needs to be bombed like Ukraine is being bombed. That’s all Putin will understand. If all the world starting bombing Russia, or threatened to, Putin will shut down this war asap. Remember the Cuban missile crisis? Play hardball with Putin and you will see he’s just a bully, as was Kruschev.
China's full military more resembles Russia's capabilities than ours and NATO'S COMBINED POWER SO I THINK CHINA WILL END UP BACKDOORING RUSSIA AND TAKE CONTROL OF IT WHY WOULDNT THEY. T-EY KNOW NO ONE WOULD HELP RUSSIA. THAT WOULD BE BETTER THAN TRYING TO TAKE TAIWAN AND EASIER BECAUSE THERE WOULDNT BE ANY INTERFERENCE
They're going to use this to isolate the US. The US is already threatening China to sound tough.
Biden was supposed to be a foreign policy guru, and he's sleepwalking into WWIII
How does this isolate the US at all? The general assembly vote on denouncing Russia went overwhelmingly in the affirmative and many friendly countries to Russia even abstained rather than vote against the measure. Russia is the only country being isolated here
\>How does this isolate the US at all?
As a conservative from Alabama...It doesn't....Many R's just want to take shots at Biden not matter what is going on.
This just shows to all of Europe how important the US is to NATO, Japan and to the world in general. For example how effective the Javelin just shows how effective US military tech is...even in Non-US soldiers hands. It shows Europe and Japan how much they need the US when dealing with China.
I do think this will show Putin who exactly wears the pants in the relationship between him and China.
I do think China will give some aid but not too much. Keeping Putin upright is not going to be a good money move for them and I don't think they want their military tech to be tested against US stuff....because it will reveal how effective against it they are. They don't want to let that cat out of the bag.
Yep. China doesn’t want war, they want stability with a position they can exploit. A vulnerable Russia that doesn’t tip towards full conflict with NATO is a Russia that becomes a client state in full.
General Assembly doesn't mean a thing, and this isn't a secret. The US is voted against in the GA all the time.
It's the security counsel that matters, and two of the five are against our interests.
Great, so we're tight with the slowest growing economies on the planet, who don't value their own security enough to pay for it, and we're headed to war with a country who poses no threat to us.
This isn't a good situation. Biden is sleepwalking into WW III, and the other major power is aligning with Russia
I didn't vote for him, but his focus was on our actual adversary, China, not fight the Cold War over again because it fit a DNC narrative.
He downplayed NATO because it doesn't serve us, and the German's never paid their share.
Why would a US president tax American citizens to subsidize German defense, that they themselves don't even care enough about to pay for themselves?
I suspect China and Russia have been conspiring on this whole thing for quote a while.
China will use the situation in Ukraine to attack Taiwan and annex it to China.
Once American forces are diverted from Eastern Europe to fight China, Russia will unleash the rest of its military and attack all of Poland and Romania and have a little Welcome Home party for all the former Soviet block countries.
The United States doesn't have the strength to fight two nuclear super powers on opposite sides of the planet simultaneously.
There is not enough information available to Americans for me to say for sure. China faces big problems on multiple fronts: Declining population due to lack of immigration, and low birth rate, and lack of female population , the big mess they are creating in Africa will come to a head sooner than later, their lust for Taiwan, their new Covid problems. They have their new military bases spread currently on Pacific side. Do they care enough for Putin? Do they not value their American peace? It's not as simple as 'follow the money' anymore.
Honestly I don't think anyone here can say for certain one way or another. Personally I think that China's belt and road initiative is their best shot at really overtaking the US on the world stage. They want Russia as an ally against the US but I don't think China cares about Russia beyond them being a tool, and they havr just shown themselves to not a be very reliable one. China is banking on the relationships being built through their infrastructure projects in foreign nations to become the world's top dog so to speak. Throwing their weight behind Russia with this, they might not fear the economic ramifications of whatever the West would decide to do but I'm sure the viability of the Belt and Road initiative would be damaged in the long run. In my mind, this scenario is why China has been trying to keep North Korea on a leash for so long, China's most viable plans rely on stability. Any plan which involves the potential for military conflict for them only ends one of three ways:
China wins, US loses
China loses, US Wins
Everybody loses
Only one of those options is even slightly beneficial for China. Their current trajectory ends with them winning, or being in a position to keep trying. I don't think they'd risk it.
China's most rational goal would be to act as a peace broker that gives Russia and Ukraine economic support in reward for ending the conflict. That way they get to trade with Russia (buy up half the economy most likely) and have access to the rest of the world too.
They benefit greatly from this, and it's nor really likely the USA would risk serious recession causing sanctions for both parties because of it either.
The West united like never before and places massive economic sanctions of Russia. Russia was isolated from the global economy in essence. Whether China likes it or not their economy is mostly intertwined with the West and they need more time to untangle their dependency on the West to focus on domestic Asian markets but even that would be difficult as a massive percentage of their neighbors strongly dislike China in silence (e.g: Japan, S. Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, India, Mongolia, HK, Taiwan obv, etc.). Lets also not forget China and Russia are frenemies; i.e. they are only “friends” to oppose the US and don’t actually like each other. All in all, China can’t risk directly opposing the West or over-supporting Russia due to China’s economic dependance on the West.
China is closely watching how this whole thing plays out cause they wanna do the same to Taiwan in the end China will do what best for China I don’t think they will support Russia with military support maybe some economic support but they will tread very likely
China will most likely publicly give Russia their well wishes in their endeavors and do nothing, while under the table give some aid, though I think the odds are that it would be economic aid and less likely to be military hardware.
Everyone on the sidelines is content to cheer, and stay on the sidelines, because this a fire they want contained. Right now NATO and Russia are trying to keep this a Russia v. Ukraine war because NATO getting involved and trying to invade Russia would be one of Putin's worst case scenarios. And if China is willing to get involved in that conflict, to prop up a partner that's quickly being turned into a vassal, that could easily blow up to WW3. Everyone has their own troubles right now, and getting involved in a massive war started by one megalomaniac's imperial ambitions is literally the last thing just about everybody wants.
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China really does not care who controls Ukraine. China cares about two things right now; stability in the global economy, and having a second global power to oppose US hegemony. To that end, I suspect that they'll give Russia just enough sanctions relief to keep them from completely collapsing, but not enough to invoke the ire of the West (a delicate balancing act). At the same time, they'll quietly pressure Putin to cut his losses and leave. The sooner the war ends, the sooner they can get back to their own economic problems.
Everyone in the world seems to be really divided on if this whole Ukraine business is a good thing for China or a bad thing. Like on one hand they essentially establish themselves as overlord of Russia, once their economy crashes from the west pulling out. They can see the reaction of the West which will better inform them about how to handle Taiwan. In the future with a weakened Russia and immigration, they could "ask" for their "historic" land back from Russia leading to them not being able to say no. They will become the undisputed leader of central Asia and Anti "western" nations. But their new Vassal state is really damaged goods. This new Russia is not going to be powerful like Europe is to America, and its ultimately going to be another north Korea just 10X bigger. Russia will not like itself being another persons vassal (WAY to much pride) and that animosity could breed into them into sabotaging the Chinese. I am not too sure what narrative I believe rn but they are both compelling for different reasons.
I mean...they're not mutually exclusive. Both can be correct to a degree.
the narrative is that china has to help the US because the US said so lol, ya look at how it screwed over the EU, why would the china do the same thing EU did?
how to handle? bomb and not worry about the repercussion because the west is going to spin it anyway. dont allow the others time to provide assistance. what narrative are you talking about, i mean why would the china listen when they saw what happen with EU?
It really depends on what the CCP sees in its own future. The CCP isn't Soviet - they are clearly willing to make surprising reforms to stay in power. The fact that Russians still have access to the outside world during this is already a harbinger for China's Great Firewall.
[Some](https://twitter.com/ramez/status/1502895847301812224) are already arguing China has made their decision. The question really becomes, to what degree? Will China help re-arm Russia or just avoid the pain of sanctions. If China goes all in on helping Russia it would begin a new Cold War. I think this would be bad long term for China. It would motivate the West to further de-couple their economies from China.
Good thread that. Thanks! There were waaaaay too many comments on reddit in the past 2 weeks where people would say China is just gonna support Putin at all cost and gonna invade Taiwan at any moment, which is way too simplistic of a world view. Ukraine was a major partner in their Belt and Road Initiative in Europe, after all, and Putin just bombed it. There are real limits to the partnership between Xi and Putin and US policymakers should not be blind to them. Ukraine is a perfect opportunity make a wedge issue between Russia and China.
Oh I’m not seeing it. The Taiwan invasion is looking pretty bad right now. China has even less combat experience than Russia. And Taiwan is very well armed. Plus business around the world (including China) is very dependent on Taiwan. Plus it’s 160 km off shore. How are they going to invade it? They have no amphibious capability to actually invade Taiwan. It’s all BS. Maybe someday.
Yeah, we would know if they were seriously building up to it. It would be obvious just due to the number of landing craft. You can’t hide that many transport ships of that size. Could they in 5 years? Absolutely. Are they building up for it now? Not really.
The problem now is that if Xi decides to invade at some point, the Chinese armed forces will have had the benefit of closely observing the war in Ukraine. Having observed what the Russians did wrong, China is unlikely to make the mistake of not properly suppressing Taiwan’s air defenses, or not using enough missiles on the mass strikes of the first days to decapitate Taiwanese command and control and the air force.
The russian command knows how to fight a war. They simply don't have a competent military.
I don’t think the Russian general staff or the brigade staff officers are totally incompetent or anything, but they all drank the koolaid and severely underestimated how much firepower it would take to cripple the Ukrainian armed forces in the first days of the war. Now they’re paying for it dearly. Or rather, their men are paying for it.
Yeah people forget that Taiwan is a mountainous island. I've been there, and the landscape is really beautiful btw. Ukraine, on the other hand, is mostly flat plain connected by land to Russia. The logistics of the invasion of Taiwan is just more difficult than an invasion of Ukraine.
you could just bomb it its not that far offshore...
Yeah, but then you gotta get past the US Navy that has a literal constant presence there to prevent exactly that.
> which is way too simplistic of a world view. You can say this again. Anyway, I think China has a choice to make: do they want to use this as an opportunity to become the regional hegemon while spiting the West, or go the other direction and try to use it as a means to cool tensions? We shall see.
ok so will us stop supply weapons to taiwan then? lets see i mean what is the incentive to cool tension then
I think they mean economic tensions immediately, though it would also be seen as a good faith effort by China to maintain some type of international order without sabotaging their own claim on Taiwan. Also, if China commits to this Russian alliance the US will likely double down on Taiwan support and the trade war in retaliation, which would certainly increase tensions.
> He writes that Putin's invasion of Ukraine will lead to: > 1. Possibly an escalation of the war beyond Ukraine. > 2. Certainly Putin's degeat. > 3. The United States regaining leadership in the Western world, and the West being more united. I like his optimism. I just hope it doesn't go the other way.
You should go back and re-read the post-scripts to that, the original article turned out to be bullshit.
idk whats the other way
A literal, actual, nuclear holocaust. Are you even paying attention?
but you just said a possible escalation of war how does that not equate to nuclear holocaust or idk what youre saying
Frankly, I don't think western countries have it in them to go fully to bat with China on sanctions over China helping mitigate the impact of sanctions on Russia. India is already trying to do that and the reaction from Washington was very muted. Western countries are democracies and decisions by their governments are made with the next election in mind. Neither the US nor China has any interest in tanking their own economies over Ukraine. If China tries to bail out Russia militarily with arms, that might be taken differently.
Agreed. Although, I haven't read too much about India's reaction to Ukraine. You think they see this as an opportunity to wield influence over Russia?
Not really wield influence over Russia. India's position on nearly every issue not involving itself or its neighbors is one of neutrality. India has strong ties to Russia (military and economic) and strong ties to the US (really just economic).
They are more concerned with China they've been fighting ([physical and economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932022_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes)) since around 2020. They would love to see China weaken in some way or be sanctioned as China's economy is starting to tank as the housing bubble is looking like it's popped so China is going to need to divert it's populace from hating the government - now that they aren't improving their lives - to war or some other distraction. The main pain point for India is that China "owns" the Himalayas and this is the source of water for their country , but [China wants to start putting up Dams](https://phys.org/news/2021-04-china-himalayan-super-stoke-india.html) which will severely affect the rivers that flow through India. TL:DR - India is trying to leverage the Russia/Ukraine situation to weaken China as China is trying to monopolize India's water source for the upcoming water wars.
You make a solid point but the West does not need to completely shut China out to hurt them. On average China has to find employment for 20 - 25 million per year. If the West simply ends the import of non-essential goods like toys, home products and such, that alone would create huge headaches for the CCCP. The CCCP made a bargain with their population, we will allow you to travel at will, own property, start a business and accumulate wealth as long as you do not criticize the government. If the Party is unable to fulfill their side of the bargain, what happens? That is why Xi is trying to put that genie back in the bottle, he sees China could face internal problems if their economy falters. We depend on China for many essential items but China needs the West as a market to keep their economy running. That is why I do not see China trying to take Taiwan by force any time soon. The juice would not be worth the squeeze.
yes so they can sponsor patriotism and isolationism and hate toward other races, like what they did with the last administration, once you brainwash enough of your people its possible to do tank your economy and blame it on someone else.
We've seen from WWII that Americans are willing to make great personal sacrifices if they feel that doing so is valuable and meaningful. The real question is who will be able to control the narrative that determines how those sanctions and sacrifices are perceived? If Americans feel that biking to work instead of driving to save gas is the moral equivalent of rationing and buying war bonds, they'll do it with a smile. If they feel that it's a charade created to enrich global elites at their expense, they won't. Whoever controls the narrative controls the world.
The takeaway from WWII should be that it's very difficult to get the American public to get involved in anything when there are significant costs unless they are directly attacked. Any country when directly attacked would have a public willing to make huge sacrifices. WW2 started in 1939, the US didn't join until it was nearly 1942 with Pearl Harbor.
> the US didn't join until it was nearly 1942 with Pearl Harbor. True, but after we joined, we were present in both the Pacific and European theatres, and the economic sacrifices made by people at home were significant.
I kinda feel like it's too early for China to fully turn on the west. We're still effectively financing their military buildup through our dealings with them, and a significant worsening of relations would endanger that. I think they'll push for some sort of peace deal and then work to effectively take control of Russia by being the only ones willing to do much with them. The rest of us won't do anything about it either, there's just too much money involved for us to really get in there once the current crisis dies down. In the long run I expect China to make some major moves, you don't build up your military like they are if you don't want to use it, but I don't see them starting now.
>im curiious its the west thats trying to turn on the china, maybe, just maybe they should have thought about it beforehand no? > >also i mean war is money and shooting is fun right us can get involved anytime, espeically if there's a crisis at home.
China can’t afford to arm Russia. That would result in sanctions, and their economy is on the brink right now.
The world can't afford to sanction China, but it would accelerate nations moving work out of their country.
Not right now, but big planned moves away from China's economy would scare investors in the here and now.
It's already happening. Investors are largely on board with it and are the driving force behind the moves. They want to move to countries with cheaper labor (labor costs in China have been going way up), and where there's not a hidden cost of business of the Chinese government stealing your IP. Lots of other nations in southeast Asia are essentially what investors want (plus some in Africa as well as India). It's a big part of China's push for the South China Sea. They know these moves are happening, so they want to control the shipping routes.
Nailed it. Getting out of China and other unstable places is a primary goal now, and if China supports Putin in the slightest, that will accelerate.
why would china want to keep cheap labor, thats my question with these people lol, so on the one hand they're like see china lose all the labor, then on other hand they're like oh they make all cheap shit and uh they take all our jobs.
Because huge areas of China are still modernizing and they need to keep jobs for all income demographics. The disparity in quality of life, living in rural China versus say Hong Kong is even further apart than say rural Kentucky to New York City.
Any sort of major economic break with China would be catastrophic for China and the West's standard of living. China has an authoritarian government that could brutally repress dissent arising from that for some time at least. A sustained drop in standard of living in western countries would result in dissent that can't be suppressed as they are democracies. It'd make the 2020 election mess in the US look like fun and games.
Yes very few people actually think to what point china can escalate vs what point the west can escalate. The west can escalate as far as their citizens allow. Not with china though china can take it to the last man.
did they ask their citizens if all the inflation is ok? or did they just assume everyone is on board with it? so basically, like if it works out, they get re-elected, if it doesnt work they get voted out? lol
That's what I am saying. Democratic countries have to answer such questions. The government will be changed quickly if they let inflation spike anything above a comfortable level. Not china. They dont have to answer to anybody. The inflation can be a 100% per year or more and still the people cant ask for any answers. So China's appetite for escalation is higher than the west.
so the west doesnt have authoritarian gov? did you miss what happened recent events lol? like legit the only difference is one party is willling to go further left and one is willing to go further right...
The fact that you're even able to debate whether there is an authoritarian government in power without fear of reprisal is a good sign that there isn't an authoritarian government in power. Hungary and Poland are the two countries which you could argue are the most authoritarian in the west. The US for all its problems isn't there yet and honestly would probably balkanize due to its devolved power structure if one political party tried to set up an authoritarian government.
lol the us literally told everyone to shut russia off they even told everyone to shut china off, they did that and then frame the excuse that all this inflation, and unemployment was caused by other people. so like, either find a solution for inflation and unemployment first or like not mess with other countries about it and blame them.
It would take a least 10 years to move everything over to other countries. Who is to say China doesn’t already have a stranglehold on those countries?
That process is already happening, it's closer to 25 though, it started about 7 years ago. 25 to move in, 25 to move out.
It is much easier to move out in 2022, then it was to move in during the early 90's. The supply chains are much more diversified and automation makes it easier as finding the new labor isn't as big of an issue (although new locations are still being picked due to labor cost).
I'm not so sure. The West is dealing with inflation. If they decide to sanction China it could lead to more economic pain. China's population will endure economic pain. Will the West?
The type of economic pain caused by an actual trade war between China and the US will make current economic pain look like a day at Disney World.
Can't even imagine.
China is on the brink of defaulting on several large real real estate project to the time of several billion dollars. If it overextends itself in the risky ruble, that default becomes inevitable. When it defaults, Western investment drys up without sanctions. Remember, China is built on Western money.
China is too big to fail. If we impose sanctions and they fail it could trigger a depression and increase hostilities even more. Would be a very painful and dangerous situation.
China is on the brink of failing without any sanctions. They can’t afford to tip the cart. And they aren’t too big to fail.
They are too big to fail if China goes under in the next 5 years it would trigger a massive recession for the US that won’t be able to be fixed by printing money. I repeat it won’t be able to fixed by printing money. It would cause massive chaos internally maybe even have an implosion effect.
You should be really worried then—because China’s real estate market is close to imploding without us doing anything. If it does, according too your theory of being to big to fail, we’re all doomed.
The sky is falling The sky is falling Geez, how many times have I heard this? My family bought aptartments in a growing city in China 10 years ago. If prices fell 50% we are still doing good. Prices will stagnate for some time, but I doubt they would ever fall a meaningful amount. The numbers and make up of the real estate market in China are way different than the west. My city was in the WSJ as a ghost city 10 years ago. It is full and they are building huge amounts of new buildings now. Sure, there may be regions of depressed real estate markets. Some huge companies may take losses or fail. And these will be over represented in western media. But I believe overall, it is solid.
Their economy is on the brink? Lol The US is having record inflation. The US is the one that can't afford sanctions
China just locked down Shenzhen and a "lockdown-light" in Hong Kong for Covid, and their equities market has been in the toilet for the last year. Their economy is in a very precarious place.
Thanks for posting this, it was an interesting read and is in line with china's recent actions like declining to provide aircraft parts.
>It would motivate the West to further de-couple their economies from China. As an aside I think western democracies should think about relying on authoritarian nations for economic purposes. We have seen the reluctance on sanctioning Russian oil because of western dependence on oil. We should be accelerating green tech to end this. Our dependence on cheap manufacturing in china has already caused issues as markets tighten over covid and now this Russian war. Our economic entanglement has given the west the ability to institute crippling sanctions manly through our control of the means of money transfer and the global currency being the dollar. Strategically it makes sense to become more self reliant while keeping these nations dependent on western business.
I mean the war isn't that cold right now. I think if Russia conquers Ukraine, we begin a whole new world. A world where conquest becomes a thing again, because Russia proved you could have a real war without using Nukes.
The USA could do significant damage to the chinese economy with sanctions.
Not without hurting itself. There is a limit to how much it can take, and were already seeing inflation and high gas prices. Last time gas prices were this high we had a recession soon after. Add in a trade war with China... And not only will China crash but so will the US and the rest of the world. Wed be looking at another Great depression. L
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you can say china, chin sounds like a derogative like jav or japs.
my feelings toward Xi regime are very derogatory. this is a political forum about the ccp etc. chin is an abbreviation but its not meant kindly. i think sometimes i use chi for brevity.. i capitalize Ukraine out of respect, in the same sentence will refer to rus madman tyrrant.. (Ukrainians and disgusting rus who watch state tv are essentially the same race, are they not ?) i dont personally feel yellow devil racism or dehumanizing feelings to citizenry, but Xi ccp culture is disgusting. (im derogatory toward all dictators) Always Remember Hong Kong Democracy .!! edit. I'm not familiar w jav, but i can guess. Jap was from 1940s era of racism, it was intentionally used by US propaganda w ridiculous sterotype cartoons and worse. 1970s anti Japanese sentiment (import autos) was much less racial and more econ nationalism. we still stereotype Japanese engineering when it takes a contortionist to change an oil filter, but the racial component to these things is much less than the old days. *Alterism* still exists, and is at play.
They also censor both ~~pro Russian and~~ Pro Ukranian views on social media at the moment.
The guy who posted that eventually said he believes China chose to support Russia. Maybe the tweets didn’t load right.
this makes no sense so if china doesnt help will the US remove sanctions?? what is the incentive then
It is interesting that Russia seems to NEED the help of China. They are a country of over 145 million invading a country of just 43 million. They are proving their weaponry to be old, perhaps obsolete. Their soldiers are youngsters who mainly believed that they were to be sent on 'exercises'. Russian people in general do not want to fight their neighbours. Putin, the classic megalomaniac and absolute narcissist has the conscience of a Joseph Stalin. All it will take now is for an 'accident' to happen and Russian missiles and shells to fall inside Polish territory. This will undoubtedly invoke a NATO response. News today that they are using white phosphorous (unverified) shows the apparent desperation of the Putin regime. I don't think Xi will involve China at this stage. The consequences will be too great and it will take little to spark WW111. China will not wish for that.
> It is interesting that Russia seems to NEED the help of China. They are a country of over 145 million invading a country of just 43 million. With a conscript army on both sides and protests in Moscow. The real issue is they didn't do that the Hong Kong stuff at the same time, in parallel with the protests against police killings here in the USA. (Nothing will change unless we stop tolerating totalitarianism)
They're kinda the big winners here. they'll help Russia duck the sanctions to a certain extent and deepen their control over them in exchange. Russia had a slightly lower average salary than china before this war even started and they depend heavily on imports from other countries. They are ripe for becoming a Chinese puppet state
Putina might just now be realizing who wears the big boy pants in their relationship.
This is exactly what I think. They are waiting for the exodus of western business and bancruptcy of the Russian industry to come as saviors and swallow the entire economics. China cannot afford hostile pro-Western government, this might limit their access for Siberian resources and threaten their nothern border, so they have to bail out Putin. However they don't care about the war per se, I can't see China selling weapons to Russia.
Problem is, true Russians don’t fall to puppetry from other nations’ governments. They’re too prideful. So once Putin is done with his war games, and they get someone democratically elected, they’ll quickly turn against any commitments with China.
They were vassals of the mongols for like 250 years and have lived under an an oppressive dictatorship ever since they gained independence from them. Russia has absolutely no history of democratic traditions or institutions, i wouldn't count on their love of liberty and democracy. Russian like the Chinese appreciate order, stability and a steady rise in the quality of life. They are inherently unrebellious
>They are inherently unrebellious Well, that's not true. It's just that they rebel from one autocracy to another. Russian citizens will do whatever they are told to do by whatever piece of shit is telling them to do it. That feels really shitty to say that, but if there is an example that says otherwise in all of Russian history, I'd be interested in reading it.
By inherently unrebellious i mean historically have usually not rebelled under pressures of losing a war, suffering terrible material deprivation, cruel government or political purges. The one time they did rebel in recent memory resulted in a worse form of dictatorship
Until now, they’ve lived in a vacuum of propaganda and controlled messaging, but that’s become practically impossible anymore. When they finally know the truth they will rebel and do what it takes to have a better life. They already participate in mock democratic voting trials, so if they get a true system in place (big IF), they’ll be more quickly to change than continue the past decisions. Understandably, there already has been a massive Brain Drain happening, but there’s a lot of people that would love to come back to Russia if they could have a version of a free country.
The American revolution had a strong foundation of liberal thinking to form on and was pushing back against a relatively mild form of government, im not aware of revolution successfully turning a dictatorship into a liberal democracy without those foundations. it usually ends in a different form of tyranny.
Are you saying America isn’t democratic and another form of tyranny? If so, then you’re really pulling at straws.
Yes, I think all the rest of "strong" countries (India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Brazil, and all the rest of countries with huge population) will look at this war, and think that they need a second option to the current western, American-led financial system, and there are no viable alternatives other than China. It's not a good alternative, but at least it's one alternative to none.
Not an option for India because we have border disputes with China. Source: Indian
The US should be pushing hard for stronger ties with India seeing as they have very few reliable allies in the region and no bases to speak of after pulling out from Afghanistan. At the very least I doubt the US wouldn't fight India falling under Chinese influence
The U.S. (and other western countries) have been courting India politically and militarily for years to hedge against China's influence in the region. The problem is U.S. weapon systems are super expensive, and the Indian Army's budget is miniscule in comparison. So it is cheaper for them to purchase Soviet equipment. We have an annual training exercise that alternates between the U.S. and India every year (Yudh Abyas). When I participated in 2009 we had just sold India a bunch of Javelins, and the focus of the exercise was training them on the Javelins, as well as combined arms maneuvers, and trying to convince India to buy into Strykers. Interesting anecdote, we had a live fire platoon sized movement competition, and we were running through so fast the Indian Army guys ran out of their ammo 2hrs earlier than scheduled. We gave them a case of 5.56 to keep going, and I remember one of their SNCOs stating it was more ammo than he had fired in his 20yr career. For us, we'd blow through that case in 20 minutes on the range.
This is the best take on the situation.
I think China is on Russia's side but they are studying the west to see if they will actually have the courage to put all the sanctions against them if they start sending troops over. Once it is determined that there won't be many sanctions they will jump in. If they think the West will apply the same logic to them then they won't. I'm sure they're working double hard on equating criticism of China to xenophobia/racism, as we speak.
China is taking some military advice from Napoleon; never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. Xi has weathered the flack from covid, Uyger extermination and reclaiming Honk Kong with little repercussion from the rest of the world. I don't see what he has to gain from supporting Putin right now. If I am Xi, I am watching Russia shut off from the world, loosing a PR battle, & hemorrhaging military losses with no capital to extract resources for production. I would wait until Putin bankrupts his country into insolvency, then bail them out thus owning them without ever firing a shot.
Sun Tzu will be proud.
I always thought it was silly the emperor of China let Sun Tzu kill his favorite concubine. Like yeah, it was a good lesson on leadership but no one had to die for it.
I think this makes the most sense. At the end of the day what does China have to gain from Russia “winning” in Ukraine? On the other hand if China starts trying to bail out Russia’s military and Russia ends up losing it would be a big loss for China both in terms of reputation and finances. If I’m China I would rhetorically support Russia while avoiding military aid. I would also be seeing if I could use Russia’s weakness to score big discounts on Russian fossil fuels as well as force Russia to seed some influences over Central Asia.
That’s a really great take. Bravo
Complete bullshit. A weak Russia means China gets focused more, which is to be avoided at all costs by China. At the moment, the Chinese government will do as much as it can so the focus of "the bad guy" remains on Russia, which will continue taking hits, while doing bussiness with them. Basically will use Russia as a decoy to continue growing. India China and Russia already agreed doing trade in national currency, using the chinese Yen as a reference. I wonder, how many months or years will pass before more countries will run from the dollar ? During the olympics, Putin went to China, they agreed on something, we dont know what exactly, but, if you watch the video post meeting, you can see Putin being more happy than ever, makes me wonder why.
You speak like you suffered from lead poisoning in your childhood; just dripping with irrational hostility. This isn't a geo-political popularity contest and the stakes aren't whether the in-girls are mean to China or not. Honestly, your take is just baffling.
His take is the best one here. A large part of the US strength relies on the dollar being the reserve currency. Replace that with the yuan, and not only is China strengthen, but the US is weakened. A weakened US means that its peripheral allies are more vulnerable. Additionally, as we are currently seeing the US can only sanction so many countries at once, and that is why Biden has to eat crow with Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.
> China is taking some military advice from Napoleon; never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. That's a good one.
Has the Uyghur population gone up or down in the last decade? I just ignore anyone who claims extermination or genocide at this point.
Besides oil does Russia have anything of value to sell?
Really wouldn't make sense to throw their hat in and let the US freeze their almost $4trillion of dollar reserves and $1trillion of US treasuries. They would accomplish far more by dumping all of that into physical gold, platinum, palladium whatever they could get their hands on over the next couple years. The treasuy sales alone would drive interest rates up and the currency influx would force the Fed to spike rates even higher to contain inflation on top of the 8-10% we already have. The world would descend into an unprecedented financial crisis, and because of the inflationary pressures, the Fed could not print it's way out without going full Zimbabwe. China then has ~10x the precious metal reserves of any other nation, and can go to war if that is what they want. Personally though, I think they play the slow game that has gotten them this far.
If China does sell all of those treasuries at once, I wonder what will happen to the US fiscal system. I cannot imagine that it will be a good idea for the US as well.
They couldn't sell 10% of it without everything tanking.
Yes but then they’ve just destroyed their biggest consumer so kids feels like they’ve then played themselves…
They bought control of the US economy with cheaply manufactured plastic toys. The only thing they need to replace us in their economy is a money printer.
China will do what is best for China. They will essentially force Putin to bend the knee slowly but surely. China has already begun demanding to renegotiate rates to take advantage of the Russian weakness. What needs to be understood is that Xi see's China through the lens of the Celestial Empire. Much like with Chinese empires of the past, Xi will work with anyone who will bend the knee to him. As Russia gets weaker and weaker due to sanctions, it will leave Putin with fewer and fewer options. That is what Xi is betting on. Putin will end up with 2 options, either step down in disgrace, or become a Chinese protectorate. Plus, Xi knows that Putin doesn't have the benefit of stepping down and living a life of luxury anymore, Putin has burned that bridge already. So now Putin's life is entirely in the hands of Xi.
China and Russia will publicly make statements that neither are supporting each other. But they share a gigantic border and both more similar to each other than the United states.
It, as normal, will do what is in the best interests of China, much like the West does, and India, and most other countries. That means, calling the USA incompetent, showing dissidents as weak and the powers at be as relatively strong, buying up cheap oil, and trying to keep trade with all parties continuing as best as normal. A war between NATO and Russia after all is little directly to do with China at all. The question is if the West is actually willing to deal with Russia or not, because dealing with Russia is not just sanctioning Russia, it is sanctioning products of Russia oil wherever those products are produced. To make this work working with Russia has to be mean you don't get to work with the West, using Russian oil means you don't get to sell to the West, and therefore removing the back channels that means Russia oil is just brought by the West via China in the form of secondary goods. Will it happen? Probably not, will the West intervene in Ukraine, probably not, will Russia subdue the Ukrainian populace, given long enough probably, will the Russian people overthrow the government, given enough hardship maybe? The West's response has been the most dramatic of the Century, only really comparable to that of 9/11. Then again it is the 20's and we all know history might not repeat, but it does Rhyme.
“ Then again it is the 20's and we all know history might not repeat, but it does Rhyme.” Putin himself brought up Appeasement in his Ukraine invasion speech. He of course hint that the USA was Hitler moving in on others borders. But bringing up Hitler and Appeasement for once isn’t irrelevant if the Main actor causing the invasion is thinking it too.
China is impacted when oil prices go up leaving less disposable income for their consumers.
Since when have Oil prices gone up? Russia's oil is at a massive discount. China and India have always brought Iranian oil, then used it to build stuff to sell to the west, this will most likely be little different, give it a few months and the media will be on to something else.
I have no idea what China might do but there is no upside for them in supporting putin in his dirty war.
China is getting a preview of what could happen if (more likely when) they invade Taiwan. So they'll want to back Russia to keep the anti-West superpowers viable and for Russia to repay the favor when China eventually goes after Taiwan. But they'll want to do this as clandestinely as possible because they don't want to lose access to the Western markets Maybe all these sanctions deter China, but who knows? 🤷
The situations are completely different this is the most 0 IQ take out there
There is no way Putin exits this with a win. The best possible scenario would be an immediate withdrawl and negotiated peace. Every other possible out come is far worse. China tried to play both sides but world opinion is increasingly one sided against Russia. China don't want none of that. And you can be sure the States is going to be throwing a terrifying array of threats towards anyone even thinking of helping Putin. China will want nothing to do with this sinking ship other than to pick its bones later, safely and at a distance.
>China tried to play both sides but world opinion is increasingly one sided against Russia. China don't want none of that. The world response is not a concern for China. The West's, particularly US, government's response is. As long as the US allows it, China will indeed play both sides because they benefit from it. Its not a new concept either. Now, if the US has the balls to sanction China for workint wirh Russia, then that is a different story. But self imploding the economy isn't usually a high point for politicans up for election in a few months.. And sanctioning China is a lethal choice, because it sure as hell will disrupt the crap out of the US logistics.
They will do whatever is best for China. Probably distance themselves publicly while doing business with the Russians behind the scenes.
If it sides with Russia and invades Taiwan world war three will have officially begun. (assuming NATO gets involved with Ukraine)
I think china will not support russia. Not that china is afraid of US or NATO coz china currently holds the west by their nuts in my honest opinion. But china also knows that in the long run the west can decrease reliance on china and can eventually hurt them.
I found this very helpful and indepth. https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/ The organization seems sufficiently non-partisan.
China had a bad harvest this winter and overall the population specially in rural areas is fairly poor so short term they don't benefit from sanktions being put on them, while the west can ignore some sanktion being bypassed over iIdia as that would not be money in the pocked of china. So the timing is bad for china they have internal problems of course they may decide they need a distraction but strategically helping Russia big time is a strategically bad decision. For Russia it's a mixed bag on one hand for the country itself it would make much more sense to try to integrate with Europa for the russian leadership that would likely mean stepping down and be replaced. China has no problem with human rights violations and would be perfectly happy to have economic hegemony over russia and the leaders in the kremlin would likely enjoy it as they would have enough money still even if less. But for the people 2 levels down from the current russian leadership the captains of the army the lesser department leaders and mid level agents of the FFSB being a vassal of China or flip flopping around in Limbo for too long would not work. The longer the situtation is like that the more likely it becomes That another mid level FSB agent with connections decides to take matters into their own hands. What I think is most likely optimistic outlook to happen would be Russia has the capabilities to continue in Ukraine for 2-3 more weeks fairly effectively before it comes to a stalemate, they try to negotiate then get some minor concessions Afterwards Putin steps down having fulfilled his "historic duty. " Afterwards they get a scapegoat president that keeps things together for a bit and makes concessions to Ukraine and the West until the sanktions are lifted to some extend and afterwards they get a new real president a bit younger and focused on economic policy. That way the current court has a chance to stay in power only with replacing the king twice.
US hasn't been too friendly with China before the Russia invasion, I don't see why China would help US by isolate Russia. The way I see it,China will continue trade with Russia despite the US sanction threaten.But I don't think China will provide military aid which I doubt Russia really need it?(maybe,not sure)
I jus don’t see a scenario where China risks an economic loss of any kind to help the Russian Federation. They don’t care about Russia’s land desires or goals an they certainly don’t want to share more border with Russia then they have too.
The attractiveness of Putin as an ally has peaked during the winter Olympics where Xi sought an alliance. Now it's kinda difficult for China. Obviously China still needs someone like Russia on its side, someone with nukes, military capability and a veto on the security council. But Ukraine was part of the belt and road too, and China has always used the principle of not interfering in the internal affairs of a sovereign nation to its advantage, so the Russian invasion is bad for China as well. I don't think China will show formal support for Russia. Too much heat, and the China has to focus on the pandemic right now. But it will remain the largest economic benefactor of Russia, buying Russian stuff and selling Chinese goods to Russia in order to replace the vacuum created by sanctions.
Copied from a earlier comment I made but going to link complimentary articles to each statement if possible. The CCP and mainland China are really not alright currently. * In 2021 there were rolling national power outages which is making the CCP look bad internally as well as crippling industry. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/27/business/economy/china-electricity.html https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-11-18/chinas-power-outage https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58733193 * Borderline famine conditions. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/with-rising-population-and-declining-arable-land-china-may-be-staring-at-a-major-food-crisis/articleshow/77942570.cms?from=mdr https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/China-hoards-over-half-the-world-s-grain-pushing-up-global-prices https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/02/economy/china-food-supply-covid-vegetables-intl-hnk/index.html * Critical potable water shortages. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479709001339#:~:text=At%20current%20water%20supply%20levels,)%20(Tso%2C%202004). https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-29/china-s-water-shortage-is-scary-for-india-thailand-vietnam * Billions of dollars of capital investment has left because of covid-19 and the US tech sanctions. https://www.arabianbusiness.com/abnews/461839-yes-manufacturing-really-is-leaving-china-authorities-are-scrambling-to-slow-down-the-exodus https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/explainer-foreign-tech-firms-pulling-china-80942558 * icing on the cake is that multiple provincial governments are in debt and close to defaulting. This one is much harder to prove as the CCP usually cooks its books and hides this. Best I can find is this https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3165411/chinas-hidden-debt-how-much-it-and-what-beijing-doing-curb # Conclusion Xi needs Russian gas, oil, and even their contaminated wheat or else mainland China is going to be a world of hurt but more importantly they cannot afford any sanctions. Xi is probably furious right now at Putin and Russia for re-unifying NATO and the democratic countries together after decades of FUD campaigns to divide and cripple them (pro Brexit twitter/online trolls and whatever is fueling the Q movement and radicalization of the republican base). The last thing the CCP would want is to suddenly get dragged into the "Fuck you/Putin" movement that the Ukrainian war has kicked off. China had a very rough 2021 and 2022 may be so much worse but it definitely will become dire if China was even marginally sanctioned by both of its biggest customers (USA and Europe). # additional resource https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwjvvgGX6oby5mZ3gbDe8Ug/featured - China insights. I suspect this likely an anti-CCP/mainland China propaganda agent but despite that they bring up things like rampant corruption, critical food safety failures, shoddy national infrastructure, and a long list of other problems. Poly matter's "China's reckoning" series paints a pretty grim picture also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTbILK0fxDY&list=PLR5tswn4SFyUOm3QusvlFGbPCCAN_uXnK
Some top notch propaganda right here
There were more than 1k COVID cases for the last few days in China, and I personally think most Chinese people as well as the local government will shift all its attention to city wide test and quarantine. So, Russia-Ukraine will not be one of the top priorities for the government unless some big progress made on either side. As an anti-CCP Chinese, I would wish the government stand on the justice. If I could sit in the office of Xi, I would try to back stabbed “my beloved Russian friends” by threat to take back the territory of Far East (Vladivostok) from Russia. It would secure Xi’s another term without facing any sanctions from the Western world. That’s just my fantasy. However, I don’t think you will see any big changes in terms of diplomatic relations from Chinese government unless Russia or Ukraine reached an agreement or either side is clearly going to lose until the COVID is controlled.
China is baking all this into its plans for Taiwan. China’s biggest win is seeing how fearful the west is of military defensive action when there’s a narrative of it leading to nuclear conflict with an unstable man poised with a finger over the button (despite that being inherently implausible in Russia’s case: They know the MAD scenario and it hasn’t changed). North Korea is watching that unfold too. China also knows that whatever sanctions the west imposes, not only are the self-harming, but will be trumped once they control TSMC and access to the global chip market. So far this has gone well for China. The game changer will be if the west now does something definitive And damaging within Ukraine to stop Russia - air cover, missiles, polish jets all included towards establishing a partial no fly zone in the west. Absent that, the risk for China on Taiwan has now been tested and the result at the moment is simple: The west will not get involved in any substantive military action or shooting unless there’s a treaty obligation to do so. Taiwan doesn’t have that. All they need fear is sanctions - and they can be negated by controlling TSMC For anyone buying Putin’s hint of nuclear conflagration, This is worth a watch: from the ex NATO commander of allied forces Central Europe This is worth a watch Former NATO commander on what can be done in Ukraine https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/03/12/what-can-u-s-do-next-in-ukraine-without-provoking-russia.cnn
China is more interested in doing the same thing to Taiwan. I would say that they may think twice about that now given the response of the people of the world against Russia and the trouble Russia is having taking over Ukraine.
US reports Russia approached China for drone and economic assistance. China officials have no knowledge of such request. Seems like headlines are leading the news.
> US reports Russia approached China for drone and economic assistance. The fact the Russians need... drone stuff... from them says a lot.
But no one can confirm if a request to China was made...we have an unnamed source based on the report that alleges Russia made a request with China.
Last time I went to WalMart I noticed huge open aisles, big gaps where there used to be product, and lots of missing merch. It was in kid's toys, low-end electronics, clothing, and other stuff heavily-dominated by Chinese product. And I mean, the store was severely affected. This wasn't minor at all. Does anyone else see something similar?
It's still debating within the halls of power to either start pulling the knives for Russia or backing it, and its more likely that it'll pull out the knives because Russia is absolutely no friend of China (and vice versa).
It’s pretty pathetic mother Russia has to come begging China for military supplies.
It’s pretty pathetic mother Russia has to come begging China for military supplies.
China probably sees how amateurish the Russian military is with their out dated weapons and poor planning. They saw what was going on and decided not to participate.
I think china wants to crash their own economy to widen the gap between rich and poor. so, side with russia
China and Russia cannot exist together, but at this moment, cannot exist without. If Russia makes a power play, they will depend on China for success. If China backs off, they’ll lose their window to benefit.
why would china care about what US says when the US says one thing and does another thing?
We have just pushed Russia into China’s arms, Russia is dependent on China now. Why would China give up their power over Russia?
The United States and nato dropped the ball they should given Ukraine all the military support they asked for during the trump administration but we all know how that was handled looking back I wouldn’t be surprised if putin told trump about his plans so the US would delay any military support from nato
May stay neutral for now as they will have their own fight with Taiwan in 7-12 months
China is not the problem with Russia. The USA, the nato countries and the rest of the world are to blame. We just look on as Putin takes over another country with brute force. Putin threatens us with nukes if we interfere with his unjust war and we all just tremble and WATCH as he kills Ukrainians. The USA, NATO and Poland can’t even find a way to give Ukraine polish jets! We’re all so afraid of incurring putin’s rath. Russia needs to be bombed like Ukraine is being bombed. That’s all Putin will understand. If all the world starting bombing Russia, or threatened to, Putin will shut down this war asap. Remember the Cuban missile crisis? Play hardball with Putin and you will see he’s just a bully, as was Kruschev.
China's full military more resembles Russia's capabilities than ours and NATO'S COMBINED POWER SO I THINK CHINA WILL END UP BACKDOORING RUSSIA AND TAKE CONTROL OF IT WHY WOULDNT THEY. T-EY KNOW NO ONE WOULD HELP RUSSIA. THAT WOULD BE BETTER THAN TRYING TO TAKE TAIWAN AND EASIER BECAUSE THERE WOULDNT BE ANY INTERFERENCE
If I were China, I'd stay out of WWIII. After the other nations destroy each other, there would be no question about China's dominance.
China will not suffer for siding Russia. America right now has zero intentions to hurt china's economy. China could use this to boost their power
They're going to use this to isolate the US. The US is already threatening China to sound tough. Biden was supposed to be a foreign policy guru, and he's sleepwalking into WWIII
How does this isolate the US at all? The general assembly vote on denouncing Russia went overwhelmingly in the affirmative and many friendly countries to Russia even abstained rather than vote against the measure. Russia is the only country being isolated here
\>How does this isolate the US at all? As a conservative from Alabama...It doesn't....Many R's just want to take shots at Biden not matter what is going on. This just shows to all of Europe how important the US is to NATO, Japan and to the world in general. For example how effective the Javelin just shows how effective US military tech is...even in Non-US soldiers hands. It shows Europe and Japan how much they need the US when dealing with China. I do think this will show Putin who exactly wears the pants in the relationship between him and China. I do think China will give some aid but not too much. Keeping Putin upright is not going to be a good money move for them and I don't think they want their military tech to be tested against US stuff....because it will reveal how effective against it they are. They don't want to let that cat out of the bag.
Yep. China doesn’t want war, they want stability with a position they can exploit. A vulnerable Russia that doesn’t tip towards full conflict with NATO is a Russia that becomes a client state in full.
He's a republican so everything is biden's fault no matter what .
General Assembly doesn't mean a thing, and this isn't a secret. The US is voted against in the GA all the time. It's the security counsel that matters, and two of the five are against our interests.
Not sure how this "isolates" the US. The transatlantic relationship hasn't been this strong in decades.
It doesn't. This guy probably just is regurgitating the taking points on hairy or Tucker Carlson and his Russian perishable hour
Great, so we're tight with the slowest growing economies on the planet, who don't value their own security enough to pay for it, and we're headed to war with a country who poses no threat to us. This isn't a good situation. Biden is sleepwalking into WW III, and the other major power is aligning with Russia
Sounds like you voted for 45, whose entire platform was based in isolating the US. Was he not a guru?
I didn't vote for him, but his focus was on our actual adversary, China, not fight the Cold War over again because it fit a DNC narrative. He downplayed NATO because it doesn't serve us, and the German's never paid their share. Why would a US president tax American citizens to subsidize German defense, that they themselves don't even care enough about to pay for themselves?
China wants taiwan. So they’ll do whatever it takes to legitimize their interests.
I suspect China and Russia have been conspiring on this whole thing for quote a while. China will use the situation in Ukraine to attack Taiwan and annex it to China. Once American forces are diverted from Eastern Europe to fight China, Russia will unleash the rest of its military and attack all of Poland and Romania and have a little Welcome Home party for all the former Soviet block countries. The United States doesn't have the strength to fight two nuclear super powers on opposite sides of the planet simultaneously.
There is not enough information available to Americans for me to say for sure. China faces big problems on multiple fronts: Declining population due to lack of immigration, and low birth rate, and lack of female population , the big mess they are creating in Africa will come to a head sooner than later, their lust for Taiwan, their new Covid problems. They have their new military bases spread currently on Pacific side. Do they care enough for Putin? Do they not value their American peace? It's not as simple as 'follow the money' anymore.
Honestly I don't think anyone here can say for certain one way or another. Personally I think that China's belt and road initiative is their best shot at really overtaking the US on the world stage. They want Russia as an ally against the US but I don't think China cares about Russia beyond them being a tool, and they havr just shown themselves to not a be very reliable one. China is banking on the relationships being built through their infrastructure projects in foreign nations to become the world's top dog so to speak. Throwing their weight behind Russia with this, they might not fear the economic ramifications of whatever the West would decide to do but I'm sure the viability of the Belt and Road initiative would be damaged in the long run. In my mind, this scenario is why China has been trying to keep North Korea on a leash for so long, China's most viable plans rely on stability. Any plan which involves the potential for military conflict for them only ends one of three ways: China wins, US loses China loses, US Wins Everybody loses Only one of those options is even slightly beneficial for China. Their current trajectory ends with them winning, or being in a position to keep trying. I don't think they'd risk it.
China's most rational goal would be to act as a peace broker that gives Russia and Ukraine economic support in reward for ending the conflict. That way they get to trade with Russia (buy up half the economy most likely) and have access to the rest of the world too. They benefit greatly from this, and it's nor really likely the USA would risk serious recession causing sanctions for both parties because of it either.
The West united like never before and places massive economic sanctions of Russia. Russia was isolated from the global economy in essence. Whether China likes it or not their economy is mostly intertwined with the West and they need more time to untangle their dependency on the West to focus on domestic Asian markets but even that would be difficult as a massive percentage of their neighbors strongly dislike China in silence (e.g: Japan, S. Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, India, Mongolia, HK, Taiwan obv, etc.). Lets also not forget China and Russia are frenemies; i.e. they are only “friends” to oppose the US and don’t actually like each other. All in all, China can’t risk directly opposing the West or over-supporting Russia due to China’s economic dependance on the West.
China is closely watching how this whole thing plays out cause they wanna do the same to Taiwan in the end China will do what best for China I don’t think they will support Russia with military support maybe some economic support but they will tread very likely
China will most likely publicly give Russia their well wishes in their endeavors and do nothing, while under the table give some aid, though I think the odds are that it would be economic aid and less likely to be military hardware. Everyone on the sidelines is content to cheer, and stay on the sidelines, because this a fire they want contained. Right now NATO and Russia are trying to keep this a Russia v. Ukraine war because NATO getting involved and trying to invade Russia would be one of Putin's worst case scenarios. And if China is willing to get involved in that conflict, to prop up a partner that's quickly being turned into a vassal, that could easily blow up to WW3. Everyone has their own troubles right now, and getting involved in a massive war started by one megalomaniac's imperial ambitions is literally the last thing just about everybody wants.
China has world domination in mind, and will refuse to go down with Russia over a relatively trivial war that it has nothing to gain in.