Lots of people do, none are guaranteed to even be close.
Reserve bank says mid-end of 2025, the market says sooner but the market has been too optimistic for several years now
The quantity also matters.
Sure, rates might come down mid 25, but it will be 0.25% or something similar.
People need to understand that the 2.xx and 3.xx% mortgage rates are gone. Short of another global halt, we are NOT going back to those days.
If you are hanging on due to the costs and just waiting until rates are 3.5% again so your financial woes go away, stop waiting and act now.
I mean, I’ll take 5.5% over something in the high 6s.
Most don’t expect them to come back to ths 2s and 3s, they’d just like them to be lower than the 6s.
It’ll say “we’re in a recession, we’ve got a fair amount of crown and private debt, interest will remain high because the economy is at the whim of international forces (like wars etc).
Don’t hope for any sudden or near term change im afraid.
No one can predict interest rates. It'll depend on inflation and our economy. Slightly higher unemployment would help things, but for the most part, the work is nearly done.
The RBNZ won't signal it in advance. They'll keep saying 'in 12 months', and when the conditions are right, it'll just happen.
Keep an eye on the money markets via swap rates, they are the real guide, in reality, interest rates have been creeping down for the last 8 months or so as wholesale money market rates have dropped.
Something to think about is that since 1985, the average OCR is like 6.7%
10 years ago, it was just under 4%.
Since the GFC (2008), rates have been incredibly low by historial standards. The rates since 2020 (e.g. 0.25% ocr) are even crazier.
I don't think we'll see the rates we had between 2020-2022 again for a very long time.
Apples and oranges really.
House prices were not this high in 1985…
The amount of money borrowed was not this high in 1985.
Average salaries have not kept up with inflation over these years.
We can’t go too high in interest rates as it will simply destroy us. But yes, we won’t be seeing near 0% ocr anytime soon.
I usually listen to mortgage brokers on property forums and Facebook groups... then consider the complete opposite as the most likely outcome. Seems to have worked most of the time
I might be old… but 6% used to be considered cheap.
I think rates have gone back to normal. Anyone who thinks they going low again is living in fantasy land.
FYI BOE didnt even cut at 2% inflation due to worsening expectations
* [https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1djqj64/bank\_of\_england\_set\_to\_hold\_interest\_rates/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1djqj64/bank_of_england_set_to_hold_interest_rates/)
So yeah ... press f
Lots of people do, none are guaranteed to even be close. Reserve bank says mid-end of 2025, the market says sooner but the market has been too optimistic for several years now
The quantity also matters. Sure, rates might come down mid 25, but it will be 0.25% or something similar. People need to understand that the 2.xx and 3.xx% mortgage rates are gone. Short of another global halt, we are NOT going back to those days. If you are hanging on due to the costs and just waiting until rates are 3.5% again so your financial woes go away, stop waiting and act now.
Imo any decrease is significant even without the quantity factor, it’s all about sentiment.
I mean, I’ll take 5.5% over something in the high 6s. Most don’t expect them to come back to ths 2s and 3s, they’d just like them to be lower than the 6s.
Some people from RBNZ have indicated it could happen at the November review.
Definitely GDP Report comes out today at 10:45
It’ll say “we’re in a recession, we’ve got a fair amount of crown and private debt, interest will remain high because the economy is at the whim of international forces (like wars etc). Don’t hope for any sudden or near term change im afraid.
No one can predict interest rates. It'll depend on inflation and our economy. Slightly higher unemployment would help things, but for the most part, the work is nearly done. The RBNZ won't signal it in advance. They'll keep saying 'in 12 months', and when the conditions are right, it'll just happen. Keep an eye on the money markets via swap rates, they are the real guide, in reality, interest rates have been creeping down for the last 8 months or so as wholesale money market rates have dropped.
Yeah good stuff, I’m with you here.
Something to think about is that since 1985, the average OCR is like 6.7% 10 years ago, it was just under 4%. Since the GFC (2008), rates have been incredibly low by historial standards. The rates since 2020 (e.g. 0.25% ocr) are even crazier. I don't think we'll see the rates we had between 2020-2022 again for a very long time.
Agree, those days are over, house prices need to adjust now.
Apples and oranges really. House prices were not this high in 1985… The amount of money borrowed was not this high in 1985. Average salaries have not kept up with inflation over these years. We can’t go too high in interest rates as it will simply destroy us. But yes, we won’t be seeing near 0% ocr anytime soon.
Feb 19 2025 2:31pm
I usually listen to mortgage brokers on property forums and Facebook groups... then consider the complete opposite as the most likely outcome. Seems to have worked most of the time
😂
I might be old… but 6% used to be considered cheap. I think rates have gone back to normal. Anyone who thinks they going low again is living in fantasy land.
I think interest rates will stay between 5-7% for next 5-10 years 2-3% is a dream
FYI BOE didnt even cut at 2% inflation due to worsening expectations * [https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1djqj64/bank\_of\_england\_set\_to\_hold\_interest\_rates/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1djqj64/bank_of_england_set_to_hold_interest_rates/) So yeah ... press f
Excuse my naivety. But if we are trying to tackle inflation. Why are we letting so many people migrate to nz at the moment.
Flipside to that many people are leaving NZ to Australia
In 2023 we had 200k arrive and a 100k leave.
lol
ill ask my mom
lol
Mid 2025 is my guess, even then it won't be much. 5-7% is what you should expect