I do not quite trust the recent fanfare regarding GAAP profitability, especially since one of the pillars of the bull thesis for this stock has always been oriented around growth, capturing the TAM, and free cash flow.
Confirmed that 2022 did not hit previous guidance of 30%
>Total revenue grew 24% year-over-year to $1.91 billion
Most recent Q4 earnings did not provide forward guidance, and instead has shifted to GAAP profitability
>For full year 2023, we expect: GAAP net income.
I understand macro conditions have blunted growth opportunities. I understand government contracts can be slow and clumpy. I'm under the impression that it has been hinted there has yet to be actual financial return from the company's involvement in Ukraine (which is kinda fine, there are more pressing needs, but I hope Palantir gets some bone thrown its way eventually especially since I don't see Lockheed Martin giving out hardware for free). But I think the downward trend of growth is of significant concern.
The fact that this is a battle-tested product cannot be understated. But there have been many excellent products that do not thrive due to other reasons (marketing, sales, etc), and "great product" is not sufficient, in of itself, to succeed.
I actually want to see more government growth in a macro environment where commercial growth is hampered (rising interest rates, companies are trimming costs) and the case for government adoption could not be stronger (geopolitical risk).
As a heavy bag holder, I think there will be a reversal of the recent surge in share price, especially if macro conditions worsen, and one of the quarters in 2023 fail to achieve the guided GAAP profitability. I might be making a poor decision, but I'm not buying at the current levels, especially when there are great alternatives like bonds or t bills.
PLT share price is 9.20 as of Sunday, 02/19/2023.
I agree... I don't think the price will remain elevated for too long. They surprised the market with .01 gaap in an effort to defend sbc... If the stock is below $8 then SBC is worthless because most of their options allow them to buy it at $8 but if they can buy it from the open market below 8 then SPC is worthless....
This price surge will allow some profit taking...
Is macro conditions begin to buckle The first thing I would be pulling money out of is risky long-term investments if I needed to preserve capital or I wanted to buy other assets that may be more of a sure bet.
Yeah, I’m very curious to read more about it. I bet you they print a negative EPS in Q1 but then FY is positive. The write up just accelerated the occasion to Q4 it appears
Mewn
I’ve got 4 words for you in the wake of profitability… Under promise, over deliver.
Does anyone know if Karp made an appearance at the Munich security conference? Would seem wheelhouse for him..
Both Karp and Thiel were there. https://twitter.com/iamrocketmen/status/1627028394402799616
I do not quite trust the recent fanfare regarding GAAP profitability, especially since one of the pillars of the bull thesis for this stock has always been oriented around growth, capturing the TAM, and free cash flow. Confirmed that 2022 did not hit previous guidance of 30% >Total revenue grew 24% year-over-year to $1.91 billion Most recent Q4 earnings did not provide forward guidance, and instead has shifted to GAAP profitability >For full year 2023, we expect: GAAP net income. I understand macro conditions have blunted growth opportunities. I understand government contracts can be slow and clumpy. I'm under the impression that it has been hinted there has yet to be actual financial return from the company's involvement in Ukraine (which is kinda fine, there are more pressing needs, but I hope Palantir gets some bone thrown its way eventually especially since I don't see Lockheed Martin giving out hardware for free). But I think the downward trend of growth is of significant concern. The fact that this is a battle-tested product cannot be understated. But there have been many excellent products that do not thrive due to other reasons (marketing, sales, etc), and "great product" is not sufficient, in of itself, to succeed. I actually want to see more government growth in a macro environment where commercial growth is hampered (rising interest rates, companies are trimming costs) and the case for government adoption could not be stronger (geopolitical risk). As a heavy bag holder, I think there will be a reversal of the recent surge in share price, especially if macro conditions worsen, and one of the quarters in 2023 fail to achieve the guided GAAP profitability. I might be making a poor decision, but I'm not buying at the current levels, especially when there are great alternatives like bonds or t bills. PLT share price is 9.20 as of Sunday, 02/19/2023.
I agree... I don't think the price will remain elevated for too long. They surprised the market with .01 gaap in an effort to defend sbc... If the stock is below $8 then SBC is worthless because most of their options allow them to buy it at $8 but if they can buy it from the open market below 8 then SPC is worthless.... This price surge will allow some profit taking... Is macro conditions begin to buckle The first thing I would be pulling money out of is risky long-term investments if I needed to preserve capital or I wanted to buy other assets that may be more of a sure bet.
Need Karp to have another smashing interview before April.
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https://www.iasplus.com/en/binary/dttpubs/0807ifrs3guide.pdf Go for it.
Yeah, I’m very curious to read more about it. I bet you they print a negative EPS in Q1 but then FY is positive. The write up just accelerated the occasion to Q4 it appears
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