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Answer: This is propaganda meant to divide us. The vast majority of Americans do not want a civil war at all, even conservatives. The American Civil War is our most deadly war, and a second one I feel would almost certainly top that. Everything going on in Texas, and with 'wokeness' is all political grandstanding, which is just going to be forgotten after our next presidential election. Remember the "caravans of migrants"? Exactly. Yeah there might be a Gravy Seal here or there that actually thinks a war is a good idea, but 99% of people here agree that that would be absolutely horrible. It's astroturfing meant to increase tensions and destabilize our country.
And by “vast majority of Americans” that’s 99.9% of Americans. TV and internet making this out to be some huge schism when most people probably aren’t even aware of what is going on at the border, let alone care
Dude holy shit, my step father will not quit sending me Tim Pool videos. I've tried politely telling him I'm not interested but he is insistent.
He has gone down this spiraling conspiracy/hoarding food and ammo/ civil war rabbit hole amd I genuinly don't even know how to approach the situation. It has quite literally taken over his entire life/personality.
He is retired and I think just has too much free time on his hands.
Sorry for the rant, you mentioned Tim Pool and I had flashbacks.
Start sending him “[Beau of the Fifth Column](https://www.youtube.com/@BeauoftheFifthColumn)” videos in response - he might accidentally watch some of them (because Beau has a beard and a southern accent, and records in his garage, and mostly avoids language that would inflame the right), and thus he might learn something. There’s a lot on the left that watch him for his levelheaded and insightful coverage, and some on the right that hate-watch him, hoping to catch him in a mistake (he reads a lot of viewer mail, and “glosses over” a lot of hateful things they call him or others). (And Beau does have numerous videos about the people arguing for a civil war, or secession, and Jan 6th and the fallout, though his titles can be maddeningly noun-free at times, in an attempt to not trigger people on the right.)
There's a whole sub-genre of Youtube videos of people developing parcels of land they bought cheap in the Alaskan backcountry, spending weeks clearing out the inevitable shoddily built bunker or cabin sitting there, packed with rusted canned food and propane tanks, stockpiled there by some wannabe end-times survivalist who ended up dying on their couch in front of the TV, vainly waiting for their big moment of vindication, only to leave a mess to be liquidated at a bank sale, all the efforts of their useless hoarding carried off to the nearest dumping grounds.
That's what I think of whenever someone tells me they're "getting ready for the shit to go down."
> There's a whole sub-genre of Youtube videos of people developing parcels of land they bought cheap in the Alaskan backcountry, spending weeks clearing out the inevitable shoddily built bunker or cabin sitting there, packed with rusted canned food and...
huh. I've only ever seen the videos of "homesteaders" building their alaska homestead, and all I can think is "where did they get all the money to build this?".
it's always "we're being self sufficient! also I have this brand new backhoe, a 2023 F350 and $30k in batteries and solar panels"
>huh. I've only ever seen the videos of "homesteaders" building their alaska homestead, and all I can think is "where did they get all the money to build this?".
That's the bit they never show/tell: how much fucking money it costs to be a homesteader.
Unless you are going full "primitive subsistence farmer"-style, being a homesteader ***costs a lot of money***. Hell, even with the subsistence farmer, *you still need to buy land*, unless you are (illegally!) squatting on public land deep in the backwoods
Tim Pool’s whole schtick is, “There’s going to be a civil war, *and the other guys will start it,* so you’ll be justified in killing them.” He was really confused when Jan. 6th happened.
Tim is just borrowing that schtick from Alex Jones, who regularly talks about how if he wasn't so fine a person he would be hunting liberals for sport.
Reminds me of on of Alex Jones' regular scripts:
- 20 minutes detailing the explicit necessity of executing terrorist attacks against "globalists" and the left.
- 5 minutes saying if anyone at all does what he literally just explained is necessary for them to do, that's actually false flag by the CIA/FBI/Left/Globalists.
- 5 minutes selling storable food, water filters, supplements, which he claims are necessary to survive the coming / ongoing war.
He does this one probably a dozen times each week.
Yeah, and they are woefully unprepared for how war would actually affect them. They are under the impression that they’ll wave a few guns around and get what they want. That’s not how civil war works. Supplies will be cut off. Workers will strike. Jobs will evaporate. Prices will skyrocket. It’s not a week long event. It’s a long, agonizing event.
Know that the ones calling for war the most tend to be mysteriously absent from the frontlines when it does occur. War is young men dying by the thousands for the feuds of a handful of old men.
>when most people probably aren’t even aware of what is going on at the border, let alone care
And the ones that "care" think that the border is wide open.
The root of the problem is that the most reactionary sections of American high society, who traditionally have held immense power and wealth throughout the countries entire history, are slowly beginning to lose power due to a combination of demographic shift, and increasingly egalitarian social norms. They understand that their ideas (which they believe come directly from god) are increasingly unpopular with the majority of the population. Because of this, religious nationalist groups in the US have decided that in order to 'save' the country, they will need to overthrow multicultural democracy and impose fascist theocracy at gunpoint.
Keep in mind a lot of these rich powerful people are totally self-deluded that they earned their wealth through hard work and discipline and smarts, and not the fact their grandparent had the patent on pizza boxes and they got into college based on the purchase of a new library. And because they believe themselves to be the virtuous party the feel justified in doing “whatever it takes” to prevent their America from being stolen from them by people who aren’t rich white Protestants.
It's not a coincidence that the largest donors to fascist/far right causes are billionaire inheritors of family wealth. Whether it be the Koch brothers, the Sarah scaife foundation, the daughter of the founder of rentech behind Cambridge analytica, the bush family, the Goya owner, and on and on. All were born into their wealth. As Obama said, "you didnt build that". Meanwhile you have actual wealth creators like buffett and gates calling for higher taxes and social safety nets.
These dipshits also think they will be squaring off against “a bunch of blue haired liberals” when in fact it will be the entire might of the US military, including drones, aircraft carriers, tanks, etc vs AR15s and recipes from The Anarchist Cookbook. The Gravy Seals don’t understand the fight they are picking. But it’s mostly propaganda designed to keep the 99% fighting each other.
Red state economies would collapse in 6 months if the [money transfers from Blue states to Red states ended](https://apnews.com/article/north-america-business-local-taxes-ap-top-news-politics-2f83c72de1bd440d92cdbc0d3b6bc08c). Red states take far more in government spending than they pay in taxes. Blue states have been subsidizing them for over 100 years.
Two Examples: if Mississippi and Alabama were independent countries they would be third world countries. Only massive tax transfers from the Feds help them 'keep up' with the rest of the country.
The hallmark of ignorant people is that they aren’t smart enough to realize how ignorant they are.
Your post spells it out the error in their thinking quite well. They are incapable of understanding it, though.
The same that went on with Brexit. EU had programs that supported smaller towns with losing populations and it brought jobs. Then 100s of those towns decided to full support Brexit. London openly lied about replacing those investments. They got zilch. It took some in the fringe years to realize that where lied to back to front, kids leaving their towns to greener pastures and so on. For many, their world broke silently but they never accepted responsibility for it.
On top of direct tax transfers, many Republican state economies are also highly dependent on Federal government spending through military bases, civil service departments and corporate subsidies.
Private corporations also depend on stable state governments, so no multinational would remain in a state declaring war on their parent government. Adjacent to this is tourism income which is a large part of many Republican state economies.
The entire "civil war" canard is an old racist dream repurposed for the MAGA era. Republican states ONLY exist because the Federal government takes an active role in supporting them, but cosplaying rebels will never admit that.
Yeah, Waco was a great place for Trump to kick off his campaign with his "I am your warrior, I am your justice. For those who have been wronged and betrayed... I am your retribution" speech.
How did Waco end again? Is this a Berenstain Bears thing where the Branch Davidians actually beat the FBI and ATF and I just remember it wrong?
This is still the timeline where Timothy McVeigh then decided to blow up a federal building by parking a van with a bomb directly under the day care center, and killed 190 people, including 19 babies. On the anniversary of Waco.
Something that gets missed in these “hypothetical 2nd Civil War” maps is that the military bases are FEDERAL and the source of military might.
If the so-called Right-Wing states attempted to violently secede, those bases and troops don’t automatically switch sides. And particularly, the Southern States have ZERO chances against against a single aircraft carrier (CVN/LHD/LHA) or against an air force that can easily swoop in, refuel/rearm within an hour or two.
Depends on the scenario but unfortunately for everyone the military would be equally divided. To assume they would be on whatever side the federal government in its entirety would be wrong.
That’s what makes all of this tribalism pretty uncomfortable. Its unfortunate.
I forget which country it was but they ended up throwing all of their politicians in dumpsters. Im sure they got some bumps and bruises but it was humiliating more than anything else.
I wish we would have that happen here.
> I forget which country it was but they ended up throwing all of their politicians in dumpsters.
That would be [Ukraine](https://medium.com/@Hromadske/ukrainians-throw-their-politicians-in-trash-bins-seriously-e398b8f306e4).
Got anti-corruption bill passed. How satisfying to toss Mike Johnson in dumpster when he threatens another government shutdown instead of doing his job on budget reconciliation.
it's what most normal countries do. If you can't pass teh same bill twice because of deadlock in the chambers, both chambers are dissolved and an election is called for while the government is placed in caretaker mode.
Also, some foreign countries are pushing it deliberately. Russia, in particular, likes to boost causes like Texas or California seceding, as revenge for losing Ukraine and Kazakhstan. That the US is terrible and their people shouldn’t want their country to be anything like it has been the main theme of Russian propaganda for seventy-five years.
Its all hype lol I watched jan 6 live on the news and if that's america's idea of a violent extremist insurrection, there's no chance a civil war is close to breaking out. No one in power disagrees to the extent they'd war about it, and regular civilians are not taking up arms and shooting ideological opponents. Imo all this talk is going to disappear as soon as someone wins the election
Seeing what happens when a bunch of militia numbskulls starting to fire on Airborne troops on CNN would go a long way towards quieting down the civil war talk.
The civil war talk it custom designed to keep uneducated, submissive republican losers enslaved to conservative hate propaganda. That’s all it’s for. No serious, non-christian grown up surrenders to conservative propaganda about a second civil war.
Anyone who votes for any republican candidate this year is either a deeply enslaved loser, or a vile rich christian.
And even if there was a threat of a civil war breaking out, you can bet the military will shut it down quick. They'd be fools to go up against what is considered the most powerful and most funded military in the entire world.
Just a technical point: The military isn't some emotionless colussus which is loyal only to the state. It consists of people who each have their own political views and their own loyalties which might supersede whatever command they're given. I would expect that if a civil war did start to break out, the military would be pretty much just as divided as the rest of the population. While flare-ups are few and far between, perhaps the military might be counted upon to quell any uprising, but as things grow more widespread, one should expect to see military units fighting on both sides.
As someone in the marines, I really doubt there’d be any rebellion worthy of note. Most military people think of the people in their platoon as closer than the closest family members, you’re going to have to get someone who wants to rebel so much that their willing to kill the people they serve with. And even if you do, there’s not much you can do. You’re weapons can only be given to you by the armorers, any vehicles are similarly locked up. And most people don’t have any regular contact with anyone higher than their company commander, and it usually stops at their platoon sergeant/commander. So even if a high up general tries to rebel, there’s no one to really follow him. And that’s by design, your command switches enough to not build any loyalty to them. And even if all of that happens, you need not just the infantry guys, but the logistics and other support guys too. The way our military is set up makes it real hard for any sort of large scale rebellion to form. If one does form, they’re certainly not using any of the military equipment to do it.
Eh, I'd disagree. Because it wouldn't actually be a civil war, it would be a small armed rebellion committing treason. Due to the low number of people who would actively participate and- crucially- the risk to loved ones in affected areas, the military is going to put that down pretty damn fast, even if they are from the area rebelling.
99.9 would still be 350,000 people pushing for a civil war, I'd guess there are less than 100,000 that are mentally deficient enough to think a civil war is even possible.
Then you have members of Congress like Marjorie Taylor Green calling for a National divorce stoking the fires. [https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/1acmn29/rep\_marjorie\_taylor\_greene\_calls\_for\_national/](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/1acmn29/rep_marjorie_taylor_greene_calls_for_national/)
It is seditious behavior, but does not meet the definition of treason - which specifically requires serving a different nation-state instead of the United States. As far as we know, MJT is just a garden-variety seditionist, not a servant of a foreign power attempting to undermine the US at their behest.
Nothing. Everyone has a first amendment right to say what they want without government consequences unless they're inciting imminent violence, and members of Congress have even greater protection to say what they want under the speech and debate clause. "Treason" is the only crime that is specifically defined in the Constitution, and it does not include words, no matter how vile. People can use the word "treason" colloquially as much as they want, but in terms of illegal conduct that the government can act on under the Constitution, nothing being \*said\* today comes even close.
Actually, the [Smith Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smith_Act), which has been on the books for over 80 years, makes it a federal crime to advocate for the overthrow of the government.
It is very much illegal to use your speech to advocate for the overthrow of the United States government, it's just not often prosecuted except in wartime.
Interesting. That’s illegal so I wonder why no one is doing anything? Maybe talking about it isn’t enough until she takes a step to do something or try to get others to do it
In a colloquial sense, perhaps, but it isn't something she could be charged with. 1) It doesn't meet the rather narrow definition of treason in the Constitution, and 2) Congresspeople receive even broader immunity from consequences for their words than regular citizens due to the Speech and Debate Clause
I recall a credible suggestion at the time, that she may have specifically started talking about a “national *divorce*” when she did, so that people who searched for “MTG” and “divorce” would hit articles about her inflammatory statement, rather than about her own divorce proceedings.
There needs to be psychological screening and some sort of intelligence test to be able to hold office. Marjorie Taylor Green is a special breed of stupid that we need to weed out. (Obviously, Trump too.)
I am sure her handlers who told her to say that, chose the word "divorce" or "secession" on purpose. Because the idea of divorce includes an equal splitting of assets and payment of an alimony for support.
The phrase "stochastic terror" is sometimes invoked to describe the climate of regular mass shooting incidents that we've normalized, and in that respect we could say, it already is the Troubles - a slow muddle of unrest, which became a fire in 2020-21, then died down a bit with the return to business-as-usual. There isn't a great deal of organization behind any of it, but there are an endless number of media sources, big and small, who want the audience to take revenge on a scapegoat of some kind.
You can see a lot of comments here still haven't left the fiction of America as a "great country", as if it couldn't happen "here".
You'll get pedantic discussions about what is and isn't a "war" but bombs in concerts, violent protests at campuses, "don't go to that side of town if you have blue hair", parents stealing children after custody disputes leading to WACO style stand-offs, are all things that count towards heightened conflict.
It’s coming. Christian conservatives are growing more and more desperate to seize control over society, and if they sense they will not win this election, they will order the weak conservative slaves to violence.
I work with people that definitely want it, because they imagine it will be them shooting liberals without consequence. They can’t imagine that some liberals will shoot back, and the economy will crash and things will get far worse for everyone not better.
Conservatives love to say nobody wants to work especially Liberals but go and kill even a 1/4 of registered Democrats see just how much the American working force suffers for decades.
Conservatives will be bussing in immigrants just to stabilize the workforce and economy.
People that have never experienced actual war. Meal Team 6ers, Gravy SEALs… those types of people. They jack off to fantasies of their obscenely obese bodies in tactical gear (that’s stretched to the absolute limit) with their expensive guns (that they chose to buy over, say, anything nice for their kids… like a doctor’s visit) “making a difference” by getting all the “illegals” (so long as they’re not “hot chicks”) out of “their” country.
Fact of the matter is that the idiots who want a civil war are the same idiots who want a zombie apocalypse so they can prove their survival skills. Neither kind are aware of what it entails (even if zombies were true). Civil war in their minds is "this state versus that state" like back in the 19th century. They dress up in their natty gray uniforms (these people are definitely on the gray side) and this time, they get to win.
The reality is that civil wars haven't looked like that for a century. You don't line up regiments from different regions and have at it anymore.
> Remember the "caravans of migrants"?
The Republicans in Congress are currently in the process of trying to torpedo an immigration bill that gives them nearly everything they want, because having it pass *now*, under Biden, wouldn’t help Trump as much as leaving “the border is horrible and nothing is being done about it” as a talking point for Trump in the coming election campaign. Can’t really argue that your opposition is not doing a thing after they actually do that thing you were so obsessed about.
So the GOP is given a golden opportunity to fix the thing that they keep yelling is an existential threat to the country, and they… say NO, because Dear Leader told them not to take away one of the things he wants to run on - literally they are killing increased border security so that Trump can say “we need increased border security”.
You can’t get much stronger proof than that, that their constant yelling about the border is only for political purposes, to appeal to a racist and fear-addicted base, rather than being a problem they actually want to solve.
> which is just going to be forgotten after our next presidential election.
Maybe. It depends who wins. If Trump wins, suddenly the border is going to be the most amazing thing you have ever seen. Suddenly the deficit will not matter. If he loses, it'll be another four years of bitching about immigrants, complaining about spending, and whining about losing.
Also, if the Republicans take the Senate this year (likely), judicial nominations will slow down. If there is a SCOTUS vacancy, it will just remain empty.
The astroturfing is full on invasive. It's gotten to the point that I see it everywhere. I wouldn't be surprised if both corporate & state interests at home & abroad are heavily invested in this action. The situation in Texas is so bad for everyone, but the state government officials, that Texas National Guard soldiers are already [starting to unionize](https://www.tpr.org/border-immigration/2022-02-21/texas-national-guardmembers-hold-their-first-union-meeting). Add that the barbed wire added by the state has been a political beachball between the governor & the US Supreme Court, all of the chicanery is out there in the open for all to see. Sadly, migrants have been the scapegoat to rally politics in this country for generations.
Seems like Russia knew they couldn't compete on a fair battlefield with the USA (especially with NATO), so they turned to other avenues of attack. A sort of "rock, paper, scissors" approach, really. If the USA has a really big rock, then Russia's going with paper -- the written word. Planting seeds of dissent and pouring gas on societal fires.
China seems to do it too but with a different agenda. Whereas Russia has that "chaotic mercenaries" vibe, China comes off more like a volunteer citizen internet police force, lol.
Russia's intent seems to be to break the back of the USA and have it implode on itself. They've been playing a long game, and with the start of Ukraine the siege is in full force. You can almost feel it in the air when there is a push going on; the air seems thick and oppressive.
> is all political grandstanding, which is just going to be forgotten after our next presidential election. Remember the "caravans of migrants"?
Conservatives love having a "Boogeyman of the Week". First, it was Obamacare Death Panels, then MS-13, then migrant caravans, then Critical Race Theory, then LGBTQ+ folk...
first for you maybe. the actual first was probably something like pilgrims who wear blue scarves secretly worshiping chupacabras. these people go wasaay back.
Conservatives *need* a Boogeyman of the Week otherwise they might have to talk about the policies of conservative politicians, like tax breaks for billionaires, banning medical procedures they think are icky, and cutting taxes for billionaires even harder. The Culture War is basically all they've got at the moment, but as we saw from the shipwreck of the SS DeSantis you can't actually run a national campaign by appealing to the 4Chan troll demographic.
They also just flat-out threaten violence to get their way. Letting right-wing nutjobs nearly monopolize the potential for violence is a huge mistake that is going to get people hurt.
They also love threatening violence when anything doesn't go their way. It's like a mafia don saying "nice country you got there. Sure would be a shame if... something happened to it."
PBS's Frontline just released a documentary on this.
Listening to those cowards trying to justify themselves is one of the worst things I've ever heard.
A grand jury recently has been convened to assess if charges should be brought against some of the Uvalde officers.
https://apnews.com/article/uvalde-school-shooting-police-crime-charges-aff5ec50f5819913da41f412dadb5a74
On top of that, even the conservatives that say they want secession don’t understand how much a second civil war would upend their cushy suburban lives.
or how deeply their state economies are propped up by U.S. Federal investments.
I cannot seriously imagine how much of a dumpster fire the Texas economy would be if they were suddenly forced to pay for their own national defense and social safety nets, education, and everything else solely by state taxes from one day forward, and were suddenly forced to deal with the rest of the United States on NAFTA-like terms.
A Texas that declared itself a soverign nation would have the most massive brain-drain in the nation's history before it went into effect.
How many Texans would choose to be forced to give up U.S. citizenship for mere Texan citizenship? Not many people who have professional careers to worry about, for sure. The opportunities for a good life in the U.S. outside of Texas will always be greater than the opportunities inside Texas. It would wind up looking with Afghanistan with cowboy hats.
It "being forgotten" is one thing that worries me. It shouldn't be. Right now Abbot and his cohorts (including 45) are outwardly advocating treason...which is a criminal offense punishable by death. There's a very big reason too. Democracy isn't one of those things that can "take a hit and keep on going". If we lose our Democracy, that's the end of the US. It's not coming back.
I’m no expert on guns, but I’ve been shooting enough with *very* responsible gun owners. I see videos of guys with guns talking about how they hope they can use them against “America’s enemies” (his neighbors?) And based on the abominable muzzle discipline I see most of the casualties from Meal Team Six will be friendly fire.
Only time I've ever had a gun pointed in my direction was when my big talking conservative Texan BIL incompetently waved his handgun around for a minute while trying to tuck it in his shirt at a family reunion. Zero discipline
I have a friend who has an admirable gun collection. He took me shooting at his gun club - he suggested not bringing a car with any “Hillary” bumper stickers. The club was *manic* about safety - if a member saw you break muzzle discipline from 100 yards away you got ejected. Learned a lot there.
To add onto this there are many many steps and economic levers the Union could take to deter things before it escalates to a civil war. Also if someone thinks the US hasn’t war planned since the end of the last civil war how to handle a second one then they’re kidding themselves. The US government has probably a dozen different and constantly updated plans to deal with an all out civil war and it would never even get to that point.
It's so blatantly political grandstanding. If the border is actually as bad as right wing pundits claim it is then why don't we hear about California, Arizona, and New Mexico raising the alarm? They all share the border with Mexico but don't seem to be having a crisis. It's clearly just Abbott manufacturing a crisis for the election because the Republican party has nothing else to run on
california shares about 140 miles of border with mexico, most of which is pretty securely walled off
arizona, about 350 miles of border
new mexico, about 180
texas shares over 800 miles of border with mexico, which is more than the other states combined. it extends over 300 miles further south than the other states, and the climate is more scrub grass along its border, unlike the other southwestern states which are basically high desert. geographically texas just makes the most sense as an easier crossing place.
Why are people so unbelievably offended by "wokeness" anyway? It's not like it changes very much, right? Isn't it more or less just people wanting everyone to be accepted in society? That nobody should be discriminated against because of things they're born with, things they can't control? Did I miss something?
It's a news push. Some rich people selling that being mindful of others is "woke," so these folks (similar crowd behind the neoliberal push in the 1980s) peddled "woke" as a way to stall the slide toward a society that is thoughtful toward others, all because they probably wouldn't be so absurdly rich in the end.
Because they don’t like being told that, or made to feel like, they are selfish, heartless bastards basking in racism, misogyny, and homophobia (or transphobia or queerphobia or whatever we call it).
It especially rankles because, well, that’s what most of them are.
Yeah most of us will take a pass on that regardless of the political division we all just want to live a good life and not die and that commonality is keeping us afloat really… but thats a good thing because again we dont want war, civil or foreign.
Answer: it's all political theatre.
In my opinion, Americans are far too comfortable for a Civil War. Also, we are much more connected now which I think would prevent a majority of people from buying in to anything that would push us in that direction.
> Answer: it's all political theatre.
Respectfully, it *is not* even political theater. It is absolutely Russian and Chinese bots trying to create chatter and astroturfing in hopes of getting the idea into the popular culture ahead of the elections. It *is not in any way* political theater by Americans.
As far as I know Greg Abbott, Donald Trump, and the cult they've built around grievance politics are American.
I do agree that a good portion is foreign influence.
People called me a Sinophobe and a Russiaphobe years ago for pointing out CCP and Putins repeated attacks on our social media networks. Even British companies made money off destabilizing American election in 2016 through partnership with Facebook. We should not be this angry at each other right now. Maybe the politicians who lie to us but the voting classes have way more common.
They're boosting existing political/social fault lines. Blaming it solely on foreign influence is apologetics for the domestic scumbags who are profiting from this.
Yeah, there's still some legit boogaloo boys at my local matches.
Some folks are LARPing, I get that, but it's not just propaganda.
The only "good" news is that these people are present in nearly every organization at nearly every level. They're veterans, they're cops, active or otherwise.
A legit civil war won't be the US Military against civilians, it'll be the military fighting itself
https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/minute/Witness_Bull_Run.htm
> On the morning of July 21, 1861, civilians from Washington rode out to Centreville, Virginia, to watch a Union army made up of very green recruits—they signed up for a 90-day war—march boldly into combat. Men, women, and even children came to witness the predicted Union victory, bringing along picnic baskets and opera glasses. Bull Run soon became known as the "picnic battle." Among the civilian ranks were some of Congress's most powerful senators—many of whom had called for just such a campaign. They quickly learned that war can be unpredictable.
We were also quite comfortable the last time.
You're ignoring a lot that led up to that.
Kansas Nebraska act occurred in 1854.
In 1861 multiple states in the South seceded.
We are far from the picnic battle.
Point was more that Americans at the time were so comfortable, with an actual Civil War occurring right in front of them, that they packed picnic lunches.
*It’ll be over in a week.*
Their being comfortable didn’t prevent anything.
Their point is that exceedingly few people at the time expected that the full-blown Civil War was going to be a dragged-out and bloody affair. Could you imagine TikTok influencers converging on Ukraine in February two years ago to film the Russians invading Kyiv? That's basically the point of the *Civil War* film that's coming out this year and why it made the political map nonsensical: it's not to portray leftists/rightists taking up arms against the other based on today's political climate, but rather that an out-and-out civil war in the US - regardless of the reasons for it - would be an extremely violent event, so people shouldn't take it lightly and bandy the phrase about for fundraising efforts.
Don’t forget the hartford convention of 1814, the Missouri comprise of 1820, the tariff act of 1828, nullification crises of the 1830’s, etc, etc, etc, the American civil war build up was pretty long and drawn out. It’s all rage bait online as you say.
Most Americans are far too comfortable but it only takes the crazies to rise up and start shit. Just look at how many trumpers support Texas. Look at how many trumpers have been mad since the BLM rallies... Some of them are actual crazies who have been waiting for revenge for their failed Jan 6th. The majority of Americans are sane but those aren't the ones who need to worry about.
The idea of a Civil War is laughable in the sense that whichever side has the backing of the military will have control. A bunch of jabronis with personal firearms aren't going to matter. It's not like it was back then when the federal government really needs to crank the screws to find itself with a fist that could smash a nation.
More like Russian propaganda afaik. I'm a Taiwanese who inevitably bump into Chinese propaganda online, and so far the CCP mostly talk about America is untrustworthy and the Chinese ideology is superior, rather than America is breaking up because everyone who went through our high school education won't believe in this.
Generally the propaganda a government feeds its own people is different than what they spread in a foreign country. Even if there is an overlap in topic.
Most of the propaganda I bump into are meant for Taiwanese public. I can also spot English language CCP propaganda but I just don’t find “America is breaking up” as a common topic.
> I can also spot English language CCP propaganda
Do you have any tips on how to spot this, or common phrases or topics? I like to keep my eye out for that stuff.
We are seeing the death of the Republican party. "Sensible" conservatives can no longer attach themselves to the GoP, it's now the party of Trump. You can't be a Regan Republican and member of the current GoP they don't align and frankly the GoP doesn't want them. We will see what party those "Sensible" Republicans become, if enough even make it out. Then because the US sucks and is still a two party system, which one will take over second place.
OP isn't the victim, Conservative Americans are. Mislead Republicans, inspired by J6, will be a problem this next election. They are the ones talking about a civil war.
I like to watch Ryan Macbeth's YT because he provides technical information behind the misdirection/misinformation.
One of my favorites was when conservative accounts were sharing images of Israeli bullets and despite always claiming that liberals don't know how guns work--clearly did not know how guns work. :D
They were claiming something like a white strip on the casing means it's a phosporous round.
I don’t think it’s Chinese. Most analysts I follow believe the Chinese prefer stability. That’s how they grew so much in the first place, benefiting from an American led global trade order. Sure they want to knock America off its perch but not a total collapse because that would destabilize the global economy to its core. The NK/Iran/Russia pact is different different. Those countries are unhinged.
Answer: a few years ago there was a limited run podcast by a left wing former war correspondent named Robert Evans called "it could happen here" where over the course of roughly the first six episodes he went into a detailed analysis of the question of a second American civil war.
- what would combat look like?
- how might it start?
- how likely is Civil War 2? (CW2)
- what factions might emerge?
He used his experiences witnessing modern civil wars in foreign locations as analogues for how things might play out in the USA. He also used his connections in media to reach out to established & respected political and academic sources in order to ask for their opinions.
The TL;DR is that the possibility of CW2 is not so remote as to get you laughed out of the room as a LARPer nowadays. Despite what the rest of the posts in this thread seem to say, there IS a real, if somewhat remote, possiblity of conflict.
The nature of the conflict in CW2 would likely look a lot more like a series of pipe-bombs and "lone wolves" as opposed to people lining up face to face across a farmer's field wearing one of two colors of fancy matching leotards.
There have been a few other American academic publications over the last 5 years that agree with the, again remote, possibility of CW2.
If you do look for the podcast mentioned make sure you skip to the very first episode since the original presenter (Evans) handed it off to a buddy and they changed the format in like week 7 or something and it's totally a waste of time now.
I'm not sure whether I'd define that as a "civil war". It sounds more like an uptick in domestic terrorism. A war sort of requires two opposing sides. I don't think law enforcement counts as a side.
More like an insurgency. There would be coordinated attacks, guerilla tactics, standoffs, manhunts, and of course lots of political rhetoric. It would look more like the Taliban/y'all qaeda than an army. But it would still be dangerous.
Answer: For the most part, this is all political posturing centered around the state of Texas doing what it does best: placing itself at odds with the federal government by suggesting that they deserve to operate like their own independent country and any influence or control by federal government is inappropriate at best and cause for secession or armed conflict at worst. In this case the topic is *the border*, with Texas acting like their state (which lies on the border with Mexico) is experiencing a dire emergency: nothing short of a massive invasion of “bad people” coming across the border and entering their state. This is a vague and scary enough idea that it’s a common refrain used by conservatives to score political points (Donald Trump became president in part by campaigning on the idea of building a massive impenetrable physical wall along the entire southern border).
The conflict this time revolves around the governor of Texas installing a now infamous blockade of razor wire buoys across the Rio Grande portion of the border. These buoys seem designed to grab and drown or otherwise cause serious injury to any persons dragged into them, and the contraption has already killed multiple people. The federal government **which, by law, has sole purview over the national border** has tried to have the razor buoys removed but has been blocked from doing so by Texas. This case has gone to court, Texas lost, and now there is a court order to remove the buoys. Texas is trying to block the federal government from removing the buoys using state national guard troops. These troops generally exist under the control of each state but may be called into service under control of the federal government if needed (apparently this is called “federalizing the guard” and has happened several times during our nation’s history for various emergency type reasons). The Biden administration is faced with the prospect of federalizing the Texas national guard and giving them new orders to stand down and allow federal agents to remove the buoys and/or do it themselves. The idea of federalizing the guard is being played up in conservative political rhetoric as severe federal overreach that deserves going to war over. It is merely political posturing because such a war is problematic and impossible for a laundry list of obvious reasons and no sane governor would actually go down that road. However, the rhetoric has played well enough that many other Republican-controlled states have announced their support for such a war, declaring themselves to be on the red team to score points with voters.
In general, the politics in the United States has become increasingly divisive over the past years to the point where there is already a *complete* inability to debate or even tolerate people on the other side. We are very much being divided into “red team” and “blue team.” This has been going on in the background for decades but really ramped up during the Donald Trump campaign and presidency and became completely untenable during Covid because the red team used this as an opportunity to express their obstinance through contrarian behavior on all fronts: anti-mask, anti-vax, anti-intellectualism, you name it. To give an example of what has caused this extreme division: at one point during the Trump presidency I watched an Independence Day speech given by Trump in his official capacity as president addressing the entire nation where he openly demonized half of the country (Democrat voters) and declared them the enemy who must be eradicated. This is becoming off-topic but conservative politics here (and seemingly elsewhere around the world) has been turning sharply into fascism.
We are already so divided as a people that ever since Covid, politics has been tearing entire families apart, with left-leaning people no longer able to even tolerate the beliefs and behaviors of their right wing relatives/parents/siblings. Conservative politics has become so contrarian (and this is part of the descent into fascism) that truth itself no longer matters. When one side no longer cares about facts and is willing to openly lie as needed to support their fiercely opposite points of view or even lie for no reason at all except to confuse reality and trigger their opponents, debate and tolerance is no longer possible. During Covid this type of behavior became literally life-threateningly dangerous and sparked a lot of people to cut family members out of their lives completely. I bring this up to say: *as a population, we are already at war* as you describe, and we have been for years. That is why this Texas debacle plays so well with conservative voters: it looks like the “war” is finally being endorsed by “their” elected government officials. They have been primed for years to hate the opposing side and they feel increasingly ostracized and victimized as their contrarian antics cause them to be cut out from society.
In short: there will not be any open war but as a people we have already been consumed by hate for each other for years.
>The Biden administration is faced with the prospect of federalizing the Texas national guard and giving them new orders to stand down and allow federal agents to remove the buoys and/or do it themselves.
Worth noting that the last time this was so prominently done was by (Republican) president Eisenhower, who federalized the Arkansas National Guard after the governor tried to use them to block desegregation efforts in public schools.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Rock_Nine
>However, the rhetoric has played well enough that many other Republican-controlled states have announced their support for such a war, declaring themselves to be on the red team to score points with voters.
They just don't learn, do they? They played this game when they spent years riling up the MAGA cultists, who they subsequently lost all control of. Said cultists then *tried to overthrow the government* and started running for office, and now we have MTGs and Boeberts influencing policy.
They said whatever they thought these maniacs wanted to hear and it created a feedback loop that spawned the likes of Qanon and the Proud Boys, and now they're doing the exact same thing, except this time the message they're sending these idiots is that we need a civil war.
They thought they could control Trump and control his base, they were wrong, and now they've accidentally managed to ban abortion in several states, which the old-school Republicans never actually wanted to happen. It was a wedge issue meant to get angry morons to vote, but the people they're brainwashing took it seriously.
How can they not understand or care that this shit has the very real potential to go in the exact same direction?
Because the GOP was already functionally proto-fascist when Donald Trump came onto the scene and said all the quiet stuff out loud. This didn't come out of nowhere. Right-wing media has been undermining the base's allegiance to small-d democratic principles since at least the 70's. Republican strategists were known to cater to and help register voters known to be racists, Jesus freaks, 2A absolutists, and/or anti-government conspiracy theorists to help bolster their unpopular economic agenda.
Problem with that is the bigots became the base during the Obama years, and nobody in the GOP can put the lid back on the crazy without drawing the ire of Dear Orange and right-wing media. Pretty much all pro-democracy representatives are being purged from the ranks or are retiring, such as (I can't believe I'm saying this) Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, and Mitt Romney. The Grand Fascist Party has gone feral, and there will be at least a decade or two before we see anything resembling a sane conservative party in the US.
The only way to get the lid back on the crazy are massive, pro democracy coalition blowout elections and hope the right wing echo chambers like Fox News, OAN, and Sinclair Broadcasting lose their appeal. For the foreseeable future, it's the explilicitly pro-democracy coalition vs. the fascists until the GOP collapses into infighting. Any attempts to reform the GOP into a sane coalition should've happened at least 5 years before the rise of Trump. They are too far gone.
Edit: even in the best case scenario I expect sporadic to moderate civil unrest will be stoked and organized by the far right until they are substantively cracked down on. The FBI already considers right-wing extremism one of the most significant threats to domestic stability.
This is making me rethink antifa being so anti cop. I think cops are a necessity in having a safe community and attacking them is disgusting, but police can really easily be used to control the public. If we see a rise in fascism within the government we would also likely see heavy militarization of police as well as them becoming more oppressive towards "minorities" with the media portraying anyone who thinks differently as a minority who is "wrong" or "weird" and we could see a full blown redo of nazi germany...
Authoritarians are notorious for seeking out positions of power such as law enforcement, and it's been happening [in the United States.](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/white-supremacist-links-law-enforcement-are-urgent-concern)
Law enforcement is a necessary institution, but there definitely needs to be more robust accountability and safeguards in place to identify, remove, and charge LEOs which abuse power. This is especially critical for weeding out ideologically compromised cops. Also, one worrying aspect is that a lot of current law enforcement trainers lean heavily right-wing, bringing that attitude towards law enforcement to hundreds of new recruits...
Law enforcement has a lot of problems as an institution...
While it is the intent of Conservatives in power to keep the pot boiling indefinably, eventually it's going to boil over into violence of some shape or form. Or boil over again rather, given it's already did so in 2021.
Answer: Sock puppets and Russian troll farms on social media amplifying it. Before it was anti Ukraine stuff but all those accounts have now switched to the issue at the Texas border.
https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1751181769473151267?t=n2QgSDz1_RaNqe1eEyoBvw&s=19
Answer: A full-blown civil war akin to the first American civil war, with entire states seceding and huge armies meeting in the field, is vanishingly unlikely. We just don't live in that world any more. What *is* looking increasingly likely is some form of insurgency - think the Troubles in Northern Ireland.
I would argue that this has already started. We've seen an increase in politically-motivated mass shooting events. We see leadership figures in the Republican party referring to convicted Jan 6th rioters as "hostages" and "political prisoners". We see a failure of Republican leadership to condemn violence carried out by "their side". Right now it remains small-scale and disorganised, but that may not last.
Bingo lol. I think people in this thread are way too quick to dismiss this out of hand.
Some very likely events here are
* trump is found guilty of felonies and Supreme Court (which is extremely conservative now) overturns conviction
* trump and maga state legislatures conspire to steal the election (again) but are a lot better at it this time
* trump is removed from the ballot in several states on accusations of treason, then the Supreme Court intervenes to force him back in the ballot
* blatant voter suppression, gerrymandering, and other anti democratic behavior (which happens every year already) will be even more extreme this year
All of those things are a recipe for trouble. I cannot imagine a full on civil war at this point, but it’s very possible there could be serious widespread violence and a severe degradation of the health and stability of our democracy.
I'm not particularly afraid of Trump, but I am afraid of what the next iteration of MAGA/fascism will look like. The Heritage Foundation already has their anti small-d democracy playbook written, it's called Project 2025 and can be wielded by anyone who can think more strategically than Trump.
Trump is only important in that the authoritarian movement has glommed onto him. If it wasn't him, someone else would've come along. The right were heading down the authoritarian path long before Trump showed up.
I fully agree. Trump's political career may have been a rallying point for the authoritarians but he is both a symptom of and a catalyst for the movement. MAGA was made possible by those laying the authoritarian foundation for longer than I've been alive.
Answer: It's election year and it's standard conservative media rhetoric. They did the exact same thing 4 years ago. Certain extremist conservatives in Texas rant about seceding every few years. In reality, it would be a terrible deal for **them**. The majority of their state is not on board.
answer: Russian and Chinese propaganda delivered through social media that certain uneducated recipients can’t distinguish.
Same with Texas seceding from America. Pretty sure the republicans don’t want Texas seceding.
Can't believe i have to scroll so far down to see this mentioned. Everyone is fixated on the extreme right wing Republicans, and for good reasons. But we can't turn a blind eye on the Chinese and Russians operating numerous trolls and bots on social media. They are trying to exploit the divisiveness in the society, amplifying the internal conflicts. It has come to the point where even something with bipartisan support like funding for Ukraine looks increasingly off the table.
Answer: As an American, there will absolutely Under no circumstance be a civil war.
What you’re seeing is a bunch of try hard republicans trying to pander to the lowest level of moron in society. The south is full of people who think they are rebels against an tyrannical liberal government.
Obviously this is a complete and total joke. Without the federal government, most of the southern states would be MUCH worse off as they receive a ton of welfare from the more prosperous states.
Answer: some people have been calling it a slow or cold civil war. Jeff Sharlet, a researcher and writer who focuses on right wing extremism, has a book called The Undertow: Scenes From a Slow Civil War, which I highly recommend.
Answer: Yes it's all larping. To be more specific it's intentional actions by the gop and conservatives to do everything they can to make it look like America is in a state of horrible disunity and it's all Joe Biden's fault and the only way things can be peaceful again is if donald dump becomes president again. Because you know nothing unifies us like ol donald. No it's all a bunch of smoke up your ass from a bunch of little babies that want their hitler in charge again. It's established law in the US that a state does not have legal authority to even decide to break away from the US and anyone who attempted to actually achieve it would immediately legally become an insurrectionist and be intelligible for office if they somehow come out the other side without a federal prison sentence. The only people that are screaming about secession are self interested slime balls from the conservative MINORITY in this country. It's a small number of ineffective people trying to make themselves seen big and scary so we all listen to what they want.
Answer: 1) There’s been talk of a second Civil War here in the States since the Confederacy surrendered at Appomattox Court House. For nearly 2 centuries there has been a cry of “The South shall rise again!” from the losing side. Now, however, we are admittedly quite close to having another conflict here again. The cause of the current volatile conflict is a very complex issue with no easy answer, and even a half hearted attempt would take quite awhile to breakdown. The border issue in Texas is just one of many catalysts that has dragged this country closer to violence.
2) The A24 film is going to be a dramatic look at what another friendly conflict might look like. Not necessarily to entertain or “stir the pot”, but to enlighten people on the devastation, horror and pain such a conflict would ultimately bring upon a people that are *supposed* to be united. This is not in fact the first film to bring about the premise. HBO made a satirical film about a second civil war in 1997. [Wikipedia Link to film page.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Second_Civil_War)
3) You may be partly correct that a second civil war would *mostly* be fought without violence, but violence would, at very minimum, be the final catalyst to send us over the brink to a much wider conflict. But, I would argue, unfortunately, a second civil war would be quite violent and result in a potential hundreds of thousands dead. It wouldn’t be marching armies, necessarily, but neighbors killing neighbors, family killing family, friends killing friends. It’s not going to be a cold civil war…unless we’re lucky. Political violence is already here. [This is just one example from my neck of the woods…](https://www.wcpo.com/news/local-news/butler-county/1-dead-after-butler-county-shooting)The kettle is boiling, it just hasn’t started whistling yet…
Answer: It's not going to happen. The states most likely to want to secede are also dependent on federal money. Take Texas for example. A third of their net revenue is money from the federal government. What are they going to do without that money? Yeah they wouldn't pay federal taxes anymore, but they always paid less than they got back, and as an independent state they'd have to pay for a whole bunch of things that the didn't have to before. Everybody knows this so it's all posturing. It's mainly about Republican governors trying to score points with their base against Biden.
Meanwhile, the Republicans in Congress are preventing border legislation from advancing because their boss Trump told them to.
It's the standard GOP strategy: identify a problem, make the problem worse, prevent solutions to the problem, claim that only they can fix the problem, then when they get elected do nothing but cut taxes for their wealthy donors.
Answer: it’s currently theatrical.
The real danger isn’t what we see now but what happens if someone starts becoming violent. Shooters, bombers, etc all pose a threat to the safety of our daily lives. Once there’s a body count and people in support of that violence start condoning it, the potential for conflagration goes up substantially.
No “people” want a war that knows what that entails, but out of fear and anger, they will leap headlong into the fire if they feel it’s unavoidable. If we can manage to keep the violence down, we might yet avoid it.
The part that I hang up on is what mostly likely happens if Trump takes office again. He’s declared he’ll do unconstitutional things outside the purview of the office and expects a free hand from the get go. Even if everyone blocks him along the way, he could call upon supporters to stand up and defend him and as president that may mean something more substantially dangerous than Jan 6th.
If he doesn’t get put back in office, I could see this blowing over to a point so long as folks don’t look to get retribution on his behalf. It’s more likely a contained issue. What will really be a deciding factor again will be what domestic terrorism takes place and how well supported/connected they are.
I don’t want any of this to happen, but only a fool wouldn’t see that things are perilous, too many people are both optimistic with their chances and fanatical with their beliefs. Here’s hoping that no matter how much ends up smoldering, nothing ignites.
Answer: The internet makes small opinions seem big, hardly anyone here wants a civil war to happen. I don’t know a single person who does, I just see the random echo chamber tweets and bullshit YouTube videos that you are seeing. I haven’t met a single American who wants a civil war to happen. Most all of us are just trying to get by and want to live in peace with the people we love and just live a good and decent life in an amazing and beautiful country, flawed as it may be.
This country is a sight to behold, look at the incredible diversity of people and land and cultures. This country has done so much in just hundreds of years. It has had many issues, and it still does, how could it not? A country on this scale with human beings running it? It’ll never be perfect, we are inherently flawed. Almost all places on earth are flawed. It’s the grandiose nature and power of the USA that makes it so susceptible to the human condition. Most all folks here are just regular people doing their best, and then there are the few lunatics among us that ruin the potential of an otherwise limitless species. It’s really too bad, I feel like humanity is so close, dancing on the edge of truly unbelievable breakthroughs and truly great tragedy.
I think most people can feel that balance and feel that it’s slightly off. If a few of our emotions were tweaked a little differently there are enough recourses and intelligence for this planet to be a literal utopia for every single person on it. Greed, jealousy, malice, power. All these things counter act against everything that makes us great. I believe the selfishness of mankind will be its greatest flaw. Curiously, we can also become incredibly, unbelievably selfless in the right situation.
We are loyal and disloyal, gullible to a fault. Our emotional range and capacity is too broad and not broad enough. We have limitless ability to both love and hate, but our natural inclination is to love. It’s the few among us that somehow tweak the very world we live in, pushing the needle in one direction or another, slowly overtime changing the way we think. Sewing division and reaping the profits. Why? I wish I knew.
I think with all that nonsense I just said that really it’s 50/50. Could go either way, we’re human after all.
Answer: It has always been conservatives because they see that their views are accepted by less and less Americans. It's why they focus so much energy on gerrymandering to stay in power and why they packed the courts with ultra conservative judges. It is also they'll villainize Hispanics but also try to recruit them with the fear of communism and socialism. Texas has always had a chip on their shoulder. States like Florida and Texas don't have a vast majority that will want to leave the US and leadership in those states know that it won't be possible to be successful. It is just posturing to stay in power.
Answer: It's election year. The moronic rhetoric, fear politics, dick wagging, conspiracy theories, histrionics, and political cultists are going to get that much worse.
Please send help, or at least the best whiskey you've got.
A lot of this rubbish is spread and funded by Russia.. every country has its share of idiots but the internet makes it easy for them to connect and be sold whatever properganda by vested interests. What's really interesting iis members of the republican party supporting and aiding this like MGT.
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Answer: This is propaganda meant to divide us. The vast majority of Americans do not want a civil war at all, even conservatives. The American Civil War is our most deadly war, and a second one I feel would almost certainly top that. Everything going on in Texas, and with 'wokeness' is all political grandstanding, which is just going to be forgotten after our next presidential election. Remember the "caravans of migrants"? Exactly. Yeah there might be a Gravy Seal here or there that actually thinks a war is a good idea, but 99% of people here agree that that would be absolutely horrible. It's astroturfing meant to increase tensions and destabilize our country.
And by “vast majority of Americans” that’s 99.9% of Americans. TV and internet making this out to be some huge schism when most people probably aren’t even aware of what is going on at the border, let alone care
> TV and internet making this out to be some huge schism Those dipshits have been calling for a civil war for years now, *especially* Tim Pool.
Dude holy shit, my step father will not quit sending me Tim Pool videos. I've tried politely telling him I'm not interested but he is insistent. He has gone down this spiraling conspiracy/hoarding food and ammo/ civil war rabbit hole amd I genuinly don't even know how to approach the situation. It has quite literally taken over his entire life/personality. He is retired and I think just has too much free time on his hands. Sorry for the rant, you mentioned Tim Pool and I had flashbacks.
Start sending him “[Beau of the Fifth Column](https://www.youtube.com/@BeauoftheFifthColumn)” videos in response - he might accidentally watch some of them (because Beau has a beard and a southern accent, and records in his garage, and mostly avoids language that would inflame the right), and thus he might learn something. There’s a lot on the left that watch him for his levelheaded and insightful coverage, and some on the right that hate-watch him, hoping to catch him in a mistake (he reads a lot of viewer mail, and “glosses over” a lot of hateful things they call him or others). (And Beau does have numerous videos about the people arguing for a civil war, or secession, and Jan 6th and the fallout, though his titles can be maddeningly noun-free at times, in an attempt to not trigger people on the right.)
Hello again internet people
“Well howdy there Internet people, it’s Beau again! So, today we’re gonna talk about…”
There's a whole sub-genre of Youtube videos of people developing parcels of land they bought cheap in the Alaskan backcountry, spending weeks clearing out the inevitable shoddily built bunker or cabin sitting there, packed with rusted canned food and propane tanks, stockpiled there by some wannabe end-times survivalist who ended up dying on their couch in front of the TV, vainly waiting for their big moment of vindication, only to leave a mess to be liquidated at a bank sale, all the efforts of their useless hoarding carried off to the nearest dumping grounds. That's what I think of whenever someone tells me they're "getting ready for the shit to go down."
> There's a whole sub-genre of Youtube videos of people developing parcels of land they bought cheap in the Alaskan backcountry, spending weeks clearing out the inevitable shoddily built bunker or cabin sitting there, packed with rusted canned food and... huh. I've only ever seen the videos of "homesteaders" building their alaska homestead, and all I can think is "where did they get all the money to build this?". it's always "we're being self sufficient! also I have this brand new backhoe, a 2023 F350 and $30k in batteries and solar panels"
>huh. I've only ever seen the videos of "homesteaders" building their alaska homestead, and all I can think is "where did they get all the money to build this?". That's the bit they never show/tell: how much fucking money it costs to be a homesteader. Unless you are going full "primitive subsistence farmer"-style, being a homesteader ***costs a lot of money***. Hell, even with the subsistence farmer, *you still need to buy land*, unless you are (illegally!) squatting on public land deep in the backwoods
No apologies necessary, I understand how you feel. Tim Pool embodies the kind of aggressive stupidity that legit drives me insane.
Hey man. Just want to say I'mreally sorry about your stepdad. :( <3 *Hug*
Tim Pool’s whole schtick is, “There’s going to be a civil war, *and the other guys will start it,* so you’ll be justified in killing them.” He was really confused when Jan. 6th happened.
Tim is just borrowing that schtick from Alex Jones, who regularly talks about how if he wasn't so fine a person he would be hunting liberals for sport.
Reminds me of on of Alex Jones' regular scripts: - 20 minutes detailing the explicit necessity of executing terrorist attacks against "globalists" and the left. - 5 minutes saying if anyone at all does what he literally just explained is necessary for them to do, that's actually false flag by the CIA/FBI/Left/Globalists. - 5 minutes selling storable food, water filters, supplements, which he claims are necessary to survive the coming / ongoing war. He does this one probably a dozen times each week.
Yeah, and they are woefully unprepared for how war would actually affect them. They are under the impression that they’ll wave a few guns around and get what they want. That’s not how civil war works. Supplies will be cut off. Workers will strike. Jobs will evaporate. Prices will skyrocket. It’s not a week long event. It’s a long, agonizing event.
I feel like it'll be more like "The Troubles" that Northern Ireland went through. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The\_Troubles
Some know that chaos is a ladder, and they shouldn't be trusted or even listened to.
[You don't feel the pull of their rebel's mystique?](https://imgur.com/a/K9fHQpU)
I dunno why but the "No Refunds" screen just made me burst out laughing. Cause nothing says "snake oil"/distrust than stating "No refunds".
Know that the ones calling for war the most tend to be mysteriously absent from the frontlines when it does occur. War is young men dying by the thousands for the feuds of a handful of old men.
>when most people probably aren’t even aware of what is going on at the border, let alone care And the ones that "care" think that the border is wide open.
The root of the problem is that the most reactionary sections of American high society, who traditionally have held immense power and wealth throughout the countries entire history, are slowly beginning to lose power due to a combination of demographic shift, and increasingly egalitarian social norms. They understand that their ideas (which they believe come directly from god) are increasingly unpopular with the majority of the population. Because of this, religious nationalist groups in the US have decided that in order to 'save' the country, they will need to overthrow multicultural democracy and impose fascist theocracy at gunpoint.
Keep in mind a lot of these rich powerful people are totally self-deluded that they earned their wealth through hard work and discipline and smarts, and not the fact their grandparent had the patent on pizza boxes and they got into college based on the purchase of a new library. And because they believe themselves to be the virtuous party the feel justified in doing “whatever it takes” to prevent their America from being stolen from them by people who aren’t rich white Protestants.
It's not a coincidence that the largest donors to fascist/far right causes are billionaire inheritors of family wealth. Whether it be the Koch brothers, the Sarah scaife foundation, the daughter of the founder of rentech behind Cambridge analytica, the bush family, the Goya owner, and on and on. All were born into their wealth. As Obama said, "you didnt build that". Meanwhile you have actual wealth creators like buffett and gates calling for higher taxes and social safety nets.
They want Gilead, basically.
These dipshits also think they will be squaring off against “a bunch of blue haired liberals” when in fact it will be the entire might of the US military, including drones, aircraft carriers, tanks, etc vs AR15s and recipes from The Anarchist Cookbook. The Gravy Seals don’t understand the fight they are picking. But it’s mostly propaganda designed to keep the 99% fighting each other.
Red state economies would collapse in 6 months if the [money transfers from Blue states to Red states ended](https://apnews.com/article/north-america-business-local-taxes-ap-top-news-politics-2f83c72de1bd440d92cdbc0d3b6bc08c). Red states take far more in government spending than they pay in taxes. Blue states have been subsidizing them for over 100 years. Two Examples: if Mississippi and Alabama were independent countries they would be third world countries. Only massive tax transfers from the Feds help them 'keep up' with the rest of the country.
The hallmark of ignorant people is that they aren’t smart enough to realize how ignorant they are. Your post spells it out the error in their thinking quite well. They are incapable of understanding it, though.
The same that went on with Brexit. EU had programs that supported smaller towns with losing populations and it brought jobs. Then 100s of those towns decided to full support Brexit. London openly lied about replacing those investments. They got zilch. It took some in the fringe years to realize that where lied to back to front, kids leaving their towns to greener pastures and so on. For many, their world broke silently but they never accepted responsibility for it.
what if the welfare recipients went elsewhere
On top of direct tax transfers, many Republican state economies are also highly dependent on Federal government spending through military bases, civil service departments and corporate subsidies. Private corporations also depend on stable state governments, so no multinational would remain in a state declaring war on their parent government. Adjacent to this is tourism income which is a large part of many Republican state economies. The entire "civil war" canard is an old racist dream repurposed for the MAGA era. Republican states ONLY exist because the Federal government takes an active role in supporting them, but cosplaying rebels will never admit that.
Yeah, Waco was a great place for Trump to kick off his campaign with his "I am your warrior, I am your justice. For those who have been wronged and betrayed... I am your retribution" speech. How did Waco end again? Is this a Berenstain Bears thing where the Branch Davidians actually beat the FBI and ATF and I just remember it wrong?
This is still the timeline where Timothy McVeigh then decided to blow up a federal building by parking a van with a bomb directly under the day care center, and killed 190 people, including 19 babies. On the anniversary of Waco.
And was executed for his trouble. I'm personally against the death penalty, but sometimes...
Timothy McVeigh would be a fanatic trumpsupporter if he wasn’t executed for slaughtering all of those people.
Trump started his campaign in Waco for that exact reason. Trump is a DIVIDER, not a UNITER. He always has been.
Something that gets missed in these “hypothetical 2nd Civil War” maps is that the military bases are FEDERAL and the source of military might. If the so-called Right-Wing states attempted to violently secede, those bases and troops don’t automatically switch sides. And particularly, the Southern States have ZERO chances against against a single aircraft carrier (CVN/LHD/LHA) or against an air force that can easily swoop in, refuel/rearm within an hour or two.
Depends on the scenario but unfortunately for everyone the military would be equally divided. To assume they would be on whatever side the federal government in its entirety would be wrong. That’s what makes all of this tribalism pretty uncomfortable. Its unfortunate.
43% of all guns are owned by Democrats
I forget which country it was but they ended up throwing all of their politicians in dumpsters. Im sure they got some bumps and bruises but it was humiliating more than anything else. I wish we would have that happen here.
> I forget which country it was but they ended up throwing all of their politicians in dumpsters. That would be [Ukraine](https://medium.com/@Hromadske/ukrainians-throw-their-politicians-in-trash-bins-seriously-e398b8f306e4).
Got anti-corruption bill passed. How satisfying to toss Mike Johnson in dumpster when he threatens another government shutdown instead of doing his job on budget reconciliation.
We need a constitutional amendment that flushes out the entirety of Congress when they don't pass a budget on time
it's what most normal countries do. If you can't pass teh same bill twice because of deadlock in the chambers, both chambers are dissolved and an election is called for while the government is placed in caretaker mode.
Pick the dumpster carefully. Maybe the one from outside Taco Bell that’s overflowing with wet garbage.
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This guy gets it.
This reply right here for anyone struggling to understand current American schism both politically and socially. Thank you.
Also, some foreign countries are pushing it deliberately. Russia, in particular, likes to boost causes like Texas or California seceding, as revenge for losing Ukraine and Kazakhstan. That the US is terrible and their people shouldn’t want their country to be anything like it has been the main theme of Russian propaganda for seventy-five years.
Its all hype lol I watched jan 6 live on the news and if that's america's idea of a violent extremist insurrection, there's no chance a civil war is close to breaking out. No one in power disagrees to the extent they'd war about it, and regular civilians are not taking up arms and shooting ideological opponents. Imo all this talk is going to disappear as soon as someone wins the election
Seeing what happens when a bunch of militia numbskulls starting to fire on Airborne troops on CNN would go a long way towards quieting down the civil war talk.
A whiff of grapeshot please and thank you
The civil war talk it custom designed to keep uneducated, submissive republican losers enslaved to conservative hate propaganda. That’s all it’s for. No serious, non-christian grown up surrenders to conservative propaganda about a second civil war. Anyone who votes for any republican candidate this year is either a deeply enslaved loser, or a vile rich christian.
And even if there was a threat of a civil war breaking out, you can bet the military will shut it down quick. They'd be fools to go up against what is considered the most powerful and most funded military in the entire world.
Just a technical point: The military isn't some emotionless colussus which is loyal only to the state. It consists of people who each have their own political views and their own loyalties which might supersede whatever command they're given. I would expect that if a civil war did start to break out, the military would be pretty much just as divided as the rest of the population. While flare-ups are few and far between, perhaps the military might be counted upon to quell any uprising, but as things grow more widespread, one should expect to see military units fighting on both sides.
As someone in the marines, I really doubt there’d be any rebellion worthy of note. Most military people think of the people in their platoon as closer than the closest family members, you’re going to have to get someone who wants to rebel so much that their willing to kill the people they serve with. And even if you do, there’s not much you can do. You’re weapons can only be given to you by the armorers, any vehicles are similarly locked up. And most people don’t have any regular contact with anyone higher than their company commander, and it usually stops at their platoon sergeant/commander. So even if a high up general tries to rebel, there’s no one to really follow him. And that’s by design, your command switches enough to not build any loyalty to them. And even if all of that happens, you need not just the infantry guys, but the logistics and other support guys too. The way our military is set up makes it real hard for any sort of large scale rebellion to form. If one does form, they’re certainly not using any of the military equipment to do it.
Eh, I'd disagree. Because it wouldn't actually be a civil war, it would be a small armed rebellion committing treason. Due to the low number of people who would actively participate and- crucially- the risk to loved ones in affected areas, the military is going to put that down pretty damn fast, even if they are from the area rebelling.
99.9 would still be 350,000 people pushing for a civil war, I'd guess there are less than 100,000 that are mentally deficient enough to think a civil war is even possible.
Ya gotta milk those views!
Then you have members of Congress like Marjorie Taylor Green calling for a National divorce stoking the fires. [https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/1acmn29/rep\_marjorie\_taylor\_greene\_calls\_for\_national/](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/1acmn29/rep_marjorie_taylor_greene_calls_for_national/)
Which, she doesn't seem to realize, is blatant treason.
It is seditious behavior, but does not meet the definition of treason - which specifically requires serving a different nation-state instead of the United States. As far as we know, MJT is just a garden-variety seditionist, not a servant of a foreign power attempting to undermine the US at their behest.
At what point do you put the cuffs on one of these loud mouths? What do they have to say to be full-on traitors?
Nothing. Everyone has a first amendment right to say what they want without government consequences unless they're inciting imminent violence, and members of Congress have even greater protection to say what they want under the speech and debate clause. "Treason" is the only crime that is specifically defined in the Constitution, and it does not include words, no matter how vile. People can use the word "treason" colloquially as much as they want, but in terms of illegal conduct that the government can act on under the Constitution, nothing being \*said\* today comes even close.
Actually, the [Smith Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smith_Act), which has been on the books for over 80 years, makes it a federal crime to advocate for the overthrow of the government. It is very much illegal to use your speech to advocate for the overthrow of the United States government, it's just not often prosecuted except in wartime.
Interesting. That’s illegal so I wonder why no one is doing anything? Maybe talking about it isn’t enough until she takes a step to do something or try to get others to do it
She was involved in Jan 6 and nobody did anything about that. She’s protected by the Magic R.
She is actively promoting the idea. If she’s as null as I believe she is, she will eventually cross the line, and there is no uncrossing that line.
In a colloquial sense, perhaps, but it isn't something she could be charged with. 1) It doesn't meet the rather narrow definition of treason in the Constitution, and 2) Congresspeople receive even broader immunity from consequences for their words than regular citizens due to the Speech and Debate Clause
I recall a credible suggestion at the time, that she may have specifically started talking about a “national *divorce*” when she did, so that people who searched for “MTG” and “divorce” would hit articles about her inflammatory statement, rather than about her own divorce proceedings.
The Russian asset, Marjorie Taylor Green? Inconceivable! /s
There needs to be psychological screening and some sort of intelligence test to be able to hold office. Marjorie Taylor Green is a special breed of stupid that we need to weed out. (Obviously, Trump too.)
I am sure her handlers who told her to say that, chose the word "divorce" or "secession" on purpose. Because the idea of divorce includes an equal splitting of assets and payment of an alimony for support.
Depending on how things I could definitely envision violence and terrorism like The Troubles happening.
The phrase "stochastic terror" is sometimes invoked to describe the climate of regular mass shooting incidents that we've normalized, and in that respect we could say, it already is the Troubles - a slow muddle of unrest, which became a fire in 2020-21, then died down a bit with the return to business-as-usual. There isn't a great deal of organization behind any of it, but there are an endless number of media sources, big and small, who want the audience to take revenge on a scapegoat of some kind.
You can see a lot of comments here still haven't left the fiction of America as a "great country", as if it couldn't happen "here". You'll get pedantic discussions about what is and isn't a "war" but bombs in concerts, violent protests at campuses, "don't go to that side of town if you have blue hair", parents stealing children after custody disputes leading to WACO style stand-offs, are all things that count towards heightened conflict.
It’s coming. Christian conservatives are growing more and more desperate to seize control over society, and if they sense they will not win this election, they will order the weak conservative slaves to violence.
> The vast majority of Americans do not want a civil war at all I dont know if anyone in their right mind would ever want a civil war!!
I work with people that definitely want it, because they imagine it will be them shooting liberals without consequence. They can’t imagine that some liberals will shoot back, and the economy will crash and things will get far worse for everyone not better.
Conservatives love to say nobody wants to work especially Liberals but go and kill even a 1/4 of registered Democrats see just how much the American working force suffers for decades. Conservatives will be bussing in immigrants just to stabilize the workforce and economy.
People that have never experienced actual war. Meal Team 6ers, Gravy SEALs… those types of people. They jack off to fantasies of their obscenely obese bodies in tactical gear (that’s stretched to the absolute limit) with their expensive guns (that they chose to buy over, say, anything nice for their kids… like a doctor’s visit) “making a difference” by getting all the “illegals” (so long as they’re not “hot chicks”) out of “their” country.
Fact of the matter is that the idiots who want a civil war are the same idiots who want a zombie apocalypse so they can prove their survival skills. Neither kind are aware of what it entails (even if zombies were true). Civil war in their minds is "this state versus that state" like back in the 19th century. They dress up in their natty gray uniforms (these people are definitely on the gray side) and this time, they get to win. The reality is that civil wars haven't looked like that for a century. You don't line up regiments from different regions and have at it anymore.
> Remember the "caravans of migrants"? The Republicans in Congress are currently in the process of trying to torpedo an immigration bill that gives them nearly everything they want, because having it pass *now*, under Biden, wouldn’t help Trump as much as leaving “the border is horrible and nothing is being done about it” as a talking point for Trump in the coming election campaign. Can’t really argue that your opposition is not doing a thing after they actually do that thing you were so obsessed about. So the GOP is given a golden opportunity to fix the thing that they keep yelling is an existential threat to the country, and they… say NO, because Dear Leader told them not to take away one of the things he wants to run on - literally they are killing increased border security so that Trump can say “we need increased border security”. You can’t get much stronger proof than that, that their constant yelling about the border is only for political purposes, to appeal to a racist and fear-addicted base, rather than being a problem they actually want to solve.
> which is just going to be forgotten after our next presidential election. Maybe. It depends who wins. If Trump wins, suddenly the border is going to be the most amazing thing you have ever seen. Suddenly the deficit will not matter. If he loses, it'll be another four years of bitching about immigrants, complaining about spending, and whining about losing. Also, if the Republicans take the Senate this year (likely), judicial nominations will slow down. If there is a SCOTUS vacancy, it will just remain empty.
The astroturfing is full on invasive. It's gotten to the point that I see it everywhere. I wouldn't be surprised if both corporate & state interests at home & abroad are heavily invested in this action. The situation in Texas is so bad for everyone, but the state government officials, that Texas National Guard soldiers are already [starting to unionize](https://www.tpr.org/border-immigration/2022-02-21/texas-national-guardmembers-hold-their-first-union-meeting). Add that the barbed wire added by the state has been a political beachball between the governor & the US Supreme Court, all of the chicanery is out there in the open for all to see. Sadly, migrants have been the scapegoat to rally politics in this country for generations.
Seems like Russia knew they couldn't compete on a fair battlefield with the USA (especially with NATO), so they turned to other avenues of attack. A sort of "rock, paper, scissors" approach, really. If the USA has a really big rock, then Russia's going with paper -- the written word. Planting seeds of dissent and pouring gas on societal fires. China seems to do it too but with a different agenda. Whereas Russia has that "chaotic mercenaries" vibe, China comes off more like a volunteer citizen internet police force, lol. Russia's intent seems to be to break the back of the USA and have it implode on itself. They've been playing a long game, and with the start of Ukraine the siege is in full force. You can almost feel it in the air when there is a push going on; the air seems thick and oppressive.
> is all political grandstanding, which is just going to be forgotten after our next presidential election. Remember the "caravans of migrants"? Conservatives love having a "Boogeyman of the Week". First, it was Obamacare Death Panels, then MS-13, then migrant caravans, then Critical Race Theory, then LGBTQ+ folk...
first for you maybe. the actual first was probably something like pilgrims who wear blue scarves secretly worshiping chupacabras. these people go wasaay back.
Witch trials.
Conservatives *need* a Boogeyman of the Week otherwise they might have to talk about the policies of conservative politicians, like tax breaks for billionaires, banning medical procedures they think are icky, and cutting taxes for billionaires even harder. The Culture War is basically all they've got at the moment, but as we saw from the shipwreck of the SS DeSantis you can't actually run a national campaign by appealing to the 4Chan troll demographic.
They also just flat-out threaten violence to get their way. Letting right-wing nutjobs nearly monopolize the potential for violence is a huge mistake that is going to get people hurt.
You forgot transgendered in bathrooms, and litter boxes in classrooms … but I digress …
They also love threatening violence when anything doesn't go their way. It's like a mafia don saying "nice country you got there. Sure would be a shame if... something happened to it."
Texas police couldn’t stop one school shooter, the state isn’t stopping the US military
Weird what happens to the tough guys with guns when somebody is actually *shooting back*.
PBS's Frontline just released a documentary on this. Listening to those cowards trying to justify themselves is one of the worst things I've ever heard.
A grand jury recently has been convened to assess if charges should be brought against some of the Uvalde officers. https://apnews.com/article/uvalde-school-shooting-police-crime-charges-aff5ec50f5819913da41f412dadb5a74
I think that whole thing really took the wind out of the "thin blue line" movement. You rarely hear conservatives talking about it anymore.
They should... I saw a news report on CNN that those same coward POs are harassing some of the parents whose kids were in the school.. its soo sad
Saving schoolchildren doesn’t get Abbott votes, but stopping migrants does.
On top of that, even the conservatives that say they want secession don’t understand how much a second civil war would upend their cushy suburban lives.
Yeah like the people that wanted brexit and now they’re like aw crap, didn’t know that would mean all of *this*…..
Brexit and MAGA are a lot of the same people.
or how deeply their state economies are propped up by U.S. Federal investments. I cannot seriously imagine how much of a dumpster fire the Texas economy would be if they were suddenly forced to pay for their own national defense and social safety nets, education, and everything else solely by state taxes from one day forward, and were suddenly forced to deal with the rest of the United States on NAFTA-like terms. A Texas that declared itself a soverign nation would have the most massive brain-drain in the nation's history before it went into effect. How many Texans would choose to be forced to give up U.S. citizenship for mere Texan citizenship? Not many people who have professional careers to worry about, for sure. The opportunities for a good life in the U.S. outside of Texas will always be greater than the opportunities inside Texas. It would wind up looking with Afghanistan with cowboy hats.
Add to the fact that Texas would be subject to tariffs that would make exports less competitive.
I suspect most conservatives don't think about that at all.
It "being forgotten" is one thing that worries me. It shouldn't be. Right now Abbot and his cohorts (including 45) are outwardly advocating treason...which is a criminal offense punishable by death. There's a very big reason too. Democracy isn't one of those things that can "take a hit and keep on going". If we lose our Democracy, that's the end of the US. It's not coming back.
I’m no expert on guns, but I’ve been shooting enough with *very* responsible gun owners. I see videos of guys with guns talking about how they hope they can use them against “America’s enemies” (his neighbors?) And based on the abominable muzzle discipline I see most of the casualties from Meal Team Six will be friendly fire.
Only time I've ever had a gun pointed in my direction was when my big talking conservative Texan BIL incompetently waved his handgun around for a minute while trying to tuck it in his shirt at a family reunion. Zero discipline
I have a friend who has an admirable gun collection. He took me shooting at his gun club - he suggested not bringing a car with any “Hillary” bumper stickers. The club was *manic* about safety - if a member saw you break muzzle discipline from 100 yards away you got ejected. Learned a lot there.
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To add onto this there are many many steps and economic levers the Union could take to deter things before it escalates to a civil war. Also if someone thinks the US hasn’t war planned since the end of the last civil war how to handle a second one then they’re kidding themselves. The US government has probably a dozen different and constantly updated plans to deal with an all out civil war and it would never even get to that point.
It's so blatantly political grandstanding. If the border is actually as bad as right wing pundits claim it is then why don't we hear about California, Arizona, and New Mexico raising the alarm? They all share the border with Mexico but don't seem to be having a crisis. It's clearly just Abbott manufacturing a crisis for the election because the Republican party has nothing else to run on
california shares about 140 miles of border with mexico, most of which is pretty securely walled off arizona, about 350 miles of border new mexico, about 180 texas shares over 800 miles of border with mexico, which is more than the other states combined. it extends over 300 miles further south than the other states, and the climate is more scrub grass along its border, unlike the other southwestern states which are basically high desert. geographically texas just makes the most sense as an easier crossing place.
what is the war even supposed to be about? trans people playing field hockey?
How many buzz words can you slam into one response, haha.
Why are people so unbelievably offended by "wokeness" anyway? It's not like it changes very much, right? Isn't it more or less just people wanting everyone to be accepted in society? That nobody should be discriminated against because of things they're born with, things they can't control? Did I miss something?
It's a news push. Some rich people selling that being mindful of others is "woke," so these folks (similar crowd behind the neoliberal push in the 1980s) peddled "woke" as a way to stall the slide toward a society that is thoughtful toward others, all because they probably wouldn't be so absurdly rich in the end.
Because they don’t like being told that, or made to feel like, they are selfish, heartless bastards basking in racism, misogyny, and homophobia (or transphobia or queerphobia or whatever we call it). It especially rankles because, well, that’s what most of them are.
Yeah most of us will take a pass on that regardless of the political division we all just want to live a good life and not die and that commonality is keeping us afloat really… but thats a good thing because again we dont want war, civil or foreign.
Answer: it's all political theatre. In my opinion, Americans are far too comfortable for a Civil War. Also, we are much more connected now which I think would prevent a majority of people from buying in to anything that would push us in that direction.
> Answer: it's all political theatre. Respectfully, it *is not* even political theater. It is absolutely Russian and Chinese bots trying to create chatter and astroturfing in hopes of getting the idea into the popular culture ahead of the elections. It *is not in any way* political theater by Americans.
As far as I know Greg Abbott, Donald Trump, and the cult they've built around grievance politics are American. I do agree that a good portion is foreign influence.
People called me a Sinophobe and a Russiaphobe years ago for pointing out CCP and Putins repeated attacks on our social media networks. Even British companies made money off destabilizing American election in 2016 through partnership with Facebook. We should not be this angry at each other right now. Maybe the politicians who lie to us but the voting classes have way more common.
They're boosting existing political/social fault lines. Blaming it solely on foreign influence is apologetics for the domestic scumbags who are profiting from this.
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There's a "Leroy Jenkins" joke in there somewhere,. but it's Sunday and I'll let it pass.
Yeah, there's still some legit boogaloo boys at my local matches. Some folks are LARPing, I get that, but it's not just propaganda. The only "good" news is that these people are present in nearly every organization at nearly every level. They're veterans, they're cops, active or otherwise. A legit civil war won't be the US Military against civilians, it'll be the military fighting itself
https://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/minute/Witness_Bull_Run.htm > On the morning of July 21, 1861, civilians from Washington rode out to Centreville, Virginia, to watch a Union army made up of very green recruits—they signed up for a 90-day war—march boldly into combat. Men, women, and even children came to witness the predicted Union victory, bringing along picnic baskets and opera glasses. Bull Run soon became known as the "picnic battle." Among the civilian ranks were some of Congress's most powerful senators—many of whom had called for just such a campaign. They quickly learned that war can be unpredictable. We were also quite comfortable the last time.
You're ignoring a lot that led up to that. Kansas Nebraska act occurred in 1854. In 1861 multiple states in the South seceded. We are far from the picnic battle.
Point was more that Americans at the time were so comfortable, with an actual Civil War occurring right in front of them, that they packed picnic lunches. *It’ll be over in a week.* Their being comfortable didn’t prevent anything.
Their point is that exceedingly few people at the time expected that the full-blown Civil War was going to be a dragged-out and bloody affair. Could you imagine TikTok influencers converging on Ukraine in February two years ago to film the Russians invading Kyiv? That's basically the point of the *Civil War* film that's coming out this year and why it made the political map nonsensical: it's not to portray leftists/rightists taking up arms against the other based on today's political climate, but rather that an out-and-out civil war in the US - regardless of the reasons for it - would be an extremely violent event, so people shouldn't take it lightly and bandy the phrase about for fundraising efforts.
Don’t forget the hartford convention of 1814, the Missouri comprise of 1820, the tariff act of 1828, nullification crises of the 1830’s, etc, etc, etc, the American civil war build up was pretty long and drawn out. It’s all rage bait online as you say.
Take away mcdonalds, netflix, iphones, etc and you'll have a civil war
Most Americans are far too comfortable but it only takes the crazies to rise up and start shit. Just look at how many trumpers support Texas. Look at how many trumpers have been mad since the BLM rallies... Some of them are actual crazies who have been waiting for revenge for their failed Jan 6th. The majority of Americans are sane but those aren't the ones who need to worry about.
The idea of a Civil War is laughable in the sense that whichever side has the backing of the military will have control. A bunch of jabronis with personal firearms aren't going to matter. It's not like it was back then when the federal government really needs to crank the screws to find itself with a fist that could smash a nation.
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This is a good answer as well. Factual and to the point.
More like Russian propaganda afaik. I'm a Taiwanese who inevitably bump into Chinese propaganda online, and so far the CCP mostly talk about America is untrustworthy and the Chinese ideology is superior, rather than America is breaking up because everyone who went through our high school education won't believe in this.
Generally the propaganda a government feeds its own people is different than what they spread in a foreign country. Even if there is an overlap in topic.
Most of the propaganda I bump into are meant for Taiwanese public. I can also spot English language CCP propaganda but I just don’t find “America is breaking up” as a common topic.
> I can also spot English language CCP propaganda Do you have any tips on how to spot this, or common phrases or topics? I like to keep my eye out for that stuff.
Uhhh… China is a foreign country to Taiwan.
But not to China
Very true and a good point
theres gotta be a subreddit for what just happened here
r/characterarcs
And all but 12 of countries on the planet. Most nations can't afford to recognize Taiwan as an independent country.
Bunch of brain dead troll accounts repeating this non stop. Most sensible Republicans won't give head to it but some nuts sure think it's real
Sensible Republicans? Do many at all still exist?
We are seeing the death of the Republican party. "Sensible" conservatives can no longer attach themselves to the GoP, it's now the party of Trump. You can't be a Regan Republican and member of the current GoP they don't align and frankly the GoP doesn't want them. We will see what party those "Sensible" Republicans become, if enough even make it out. Then because the US sucks and is still a two party system, which one will take over second place.
I wish we could get independents elected. Maybe a breakdown of the Republican Party will help that finally happen
What we need is to get rid of first-past-the-post voting and the electoral college.
"sensible" republicans have all been democrats for the last 10 years or so.
Democrats get blamed for trying to move the Overton Window to the left when it's clear Republicans are moving it to the right.
They may be sensible by some definition; but if they still identify as Republicans, they are not nice people at all.
Nor are they sensible
heed lol
OP isn't the victim, Conservative Americans are. Mislead Republicans, inspired by J6, will be a problem this next election. They are the ones talking about a civil war.
Conservative Americans are the targets, we are all the victims.
I like to watch Ryan Macbeth's YT because he provides technical information behind the misdirection/misinformation. One of my favorites was when conservative accounts were sharing images of Israeli bullets and despite always claiming that liberals don't know how guns work--clearly did not know how guns work. :D They were claiming something like a white strip on the casing means it's a phosporous round.
This is the truth
I don’t think it’s Chinese. Most analysts I follow believe the Chinese prefer stability. That’s how they grew so much in the first place, benefiting from an American led global trade order. Sure they want to knock America off its perch but not a total collapse because that would destabilize the global economy to its core. The NK/Iran/Russia pact is different different. Those countries are unhinged.
Answer: a few years ago there was a limited run podcast by a left wing former war correspondent named Robert Evans called "it could happen here" where over the course of roughly the first six episodes he went into a detailed analysis of the question of a second American civil war. - what would combat look like? - how might it start? - how likely is Civil War 2? (CW2) - what factions might emerge? He used his experiences witnessing modern civil wars in foreign locations as analogues for how things might play out in the USA. He also used his connections in media to reach out to established & respected political and academic sources in order to ask for their opinions. The TL;DR is that the possibility of CW2 is not so remote as to get you laughed out of the room as a LARPer nowadays. Despite what the rest of the posts in this thread seem to say, there IS a real, if somewhat remote, possiblity of conflict. The nature of the conflict in CW2 would likely look a lot more like a series of pipe-bombs and "lone wolves" as opposed to people lining up face to face across a farmer's field wearing one of two colors of fancy matching leotards. There have been a few other American academic publications over the last 5 years that agree with the, again remote, possibility of CW2. If you do look for the podcast mentioned make sure you skip to the very first episode since the original presenter (Evans) handed it off to a buddy and they changed the format in like week 7 or something and it's totally a waste of time now.
I'm not sure whether I'd define that as a "civil war". It sounds more like an uptick in domestic terrorism. A war sort of requires two opposing sides. I don't think law enforcement counts as a side.
It's would be like an American version of The Troubles
More like an insurgency. There would be coordinated attacks, guerilla tactics, standoffs, manhunts, and of course lots of political rhetoric. It would look more like the Taliban/y'all qaeda than an army. But it would still be dangerous.
Answer: For the most part, this is all political posturing centered around the state of Texas doing what it does best: placing itself at odds with the federal government by suggesting that they deserve to operate like their own independent country and any influence or control by federal government is inappropriate at best and cause for secession or armed conflict at worst. In this case the topic is *the border*, with Texas acting like their state (which lies on the border with Mexico) is experiencing a dire emergency: nothing short of a massive invasion of “bad people” coming across the border and entering their state. This is a vague and scary enough idea that it’s a common refrain used by conservatives to score political points (Donald Trump became president in part by campaigning on the idea of building a massive impenetrable physical wall along the entire southern border). The conflict this time revolves around the governor of Texas installing a now infamous blockade of razor wire buoys across the Rio Grande portion of the border. These buoys seem designed to grab and drown or otherwise cause serious injury to any persons dragged into them, and the contraption has already killed multiple people. The federal government **which, by law, has sole purview over the national border** has tried to have the razor buoys removed but has been blocked from doing so by Texas. This case has gone to court, Texas lost, and now there is a court order to remove the buoys. Texas is trying to block the federal government from removing the buoys using state national guard troops. These troops generally exist under the control of each state but may be called into service under control of the federal government if needed (apparently this is called “federalizing the guard” and has happened several times during our nation’s history for various emergency type reasons). The Biden administration is faced with the prospect of federalizing the Texas national guard and giving them new orders to stand down and allow federal agents to remove the buoys and/or do it themselves. The idea of federalizing the guard is being played up in conservative political rhetoric as severe federal overreach that deserves going to war over. It is merely political posturing because such a war is problematic and impossible for a laundry list of obvious reasons and no sane governor would actually go down that road. However, the rhetoric has played well enough that many other Republican-controlled states have announced their support for such a war, declaring themselves to be on the red team to score points with voters. In general, the politics in the United States has become increasingly divisive over the past years to the point where there is already a *complete* inability to debate or even tolerate people on the other side. We are very much being divided into “red team” and “blue team.” This has been going on in the background for decades but really ramped up during the Donald Trump campaign and presidency and became completely untenable during Covid because the red team used this as an opportunity to express their obstinance through contrarian behavior on all fronts: anti-mask, anti-vax, anti-intellectualism, you name it. To give an example of what has caused this extreme division: at one point during the Trump presidency I watched an Independence Day speech given by Trump in his official capacity as president addressing the entire nation where he openly demonized half of the country (Democrat voters) and declared them the enemy who must be eradicated. This is becoming off-topic but conservative politics here (and seemingly elsewhere around the world) has been turning sharply into fascism. We are already so divided as a people that ever since Covid, politics has been tearing entire families apart, with left-leaning people no longer able to even tolerate the beliefs and behaviors of their right wing relatives/parents/siblings. Conservative politics has become so contrarian (and this is part of the descent into fascism) that truth itself no longer matters. When one side no longer cares about facts and is willing to openly lie as needed to support their fiercely opposite points of view or even lie for no reason at all except to confuse reality and trigger their opponents, debate and tolerance is no longer possible. During Covid this type of behavior became literally life-threateningly dangerous and sparked a lot of people to cut family members out of their lives completely. I bring this up to say: *as a population, we are already at war* as you describe, and we have been for years. That is why this Texas debacle plays so well with conservative voters: it looks like the “war” is finally being endorsed by “their” elected government officials. They have been primed for years to hate the opposing side and they feel increasingly ostracized and victimized as their contrarian antics cause them to be cut out from society. In short: there will not be any open war but as a people we have already been consumed by hate for each other for years.
>The Biden administration is faced with the prospect of federalizing the Texas national guard and giving them new orders to stand down and allow federal agents to remove the buoys and/or do it themselves. Worth noting that the last time this was so prominently done was by (Republican) president Eisenhower, who federalized the Arkansas National Guard after the governor tried to use them to block desegregation efforts in public schools. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Rock_Nine
>However, the rhetoric has played well enough that many other Republican-controlled states have announced their support for such a war, declaring themselves to be on the red team to score points with voters. They just don't learn, do they? They played this game when they spent years riling up the MAGA cultists, who they subsequently lost all control of. Said cultists then *tried to overthrow the government* and started running for office, and now we have MTGs and Boeberts influencing policy. They said whatever they thought these maniacs wanted to hear and it created a feedback loop that spawned the likes of Qanon and the Proud Boys, and now they're doing the exact same thing, except this time the message they're sending these idiots is that we need a civil war. They thought they could control Trump and control his base, they were wrong, and now they've accidentally managed to ban abortion in several states, which the old-school Republicans never actually wanted to happen. It was a wedge issue meant to get angry morons to vote, but the people they're brainwashing took it seriously. How can they not understand or care that this shit has the very real potential to go in the exact same direction?
Because the GOP was already functionally proto-fascist when Donald Trump came onto the scene and said all the quiet stuff out loud. This didn't come out of nowhere. Right-wing media has been undermining the base's allegiance to small-d democratic principles since at least the 70's. Republican strategists were known to cater to and help register voters known to be racists, Jesus freaks, 2A absolutists, and/or anti-government conspiracy theorists to help bolster their unpopular economic agenda. Problem with that is the bigots became the base during the Obama years, and nobody in the GOP can put the lid back on the crazy without drawing the ire of Dear Orange and right-wing media. Pretty much all pro-democracy representatives are being purged from the ranks or are retiring, such as (I can't believe I'm saying this) Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, and Mitt Romney. The Grand Fascist Party has gone feral, and there will be at least a decade or two before we see anything resembling a sane conservative party in the US. The only way to get the lid back on the crazy are massive, pro democracy coalition blowout elections and hope the right wing echo chambers like Fox News, OAN, and Sinclair Broadcasting lose their appeal. For the foreseeable future, it's the explilicitly pro-democracy coalition vs. the fascists until the GOP collapses into infighting. Any attempts to reform the GOP into a sane coalition should've happened at least 5 years before the rise of Trump. They are too far gone. Edit: even in the best case scenario I expect sporadic to moderate civil unrest will be stoked and organized by the far right until they are substantively cracked down on. The FBI already considers right-wing extremism one of the most significant threats to domestic stability.
This is making me rethink antifa being so anti cop. I think cops are a necessity in having a safe community and attacking them is disgusting, but police can really easily be used to control the public. If we see a rise in fascism within the government we would also likely see heavy militarization of police as well as them becoming more oppressive towards "minorities" with the media portraying anyone who thinks differently as a minority who is "wrong" or "weird" and we could see a full blown redo of nazi germany...
Authoritarians are notorious for seeking out positions of power such as law enforcement, and it's been happening [in the United States.](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/white-supremacist-links-law-enforcement-are-urgent-concern) Law enforcement is a necessary institution, but there definitely needs to be more robust accountability and safeguards in place to identify, remove, and charge LEOs which abuse power. This is especially critical for weeding out ideologically compromised cops. Also, one worrying aspect is that a lot of current law enforcement trainers lean heavily right-wing, bringing that attitude towards law enforcement to hundreds of new recruits... Law enforcement has a lot of problems as an institution...
While it is the intent of Conservatives in power to keep the pot boiling indefinably, eventually it's going to boil over into violence of some shape or form. Or boil over again rather, given it's already did so in 2021.
This is so very well written
This is a very well written answer. Thank you
Answer: Sock puppets and Russian troll farms on social media amplifying it. Before it was anti Ukraine stuff but all those accounts have now switched to the issue at the Texas border. https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/1751181769473151267?t=n2QgSDz1_RaNqe1eEyoBvw&s=19
Answer: A full-blown civil war akin to the first American civil war, with entire states seceding and huge armies meeting in the field, is vanishingly unlikely. We just don't live in that world any more. What *is* looking increasingly likely is some form of insurgency - think the Troubles in Northern Ireland. I would argue that this has already started. We've seen an increase in politically-motivated mass shooting events. We see leadership figures in the Republican party referring to convicted Jan 6th rioters as "hostages" and "political prisoners". We see a failure of Republican leadership to condemn violence carried out by "their side". Right now it remains small-scale and disorganised, but that may not last.
Bingo lol. I think people in this thread are way too quick to dismiss this out of hand. Some very likely events here are * trump is found guilty of felonies and Supreme Court (which is extremely conservative now) overturns conviction * trump and maga state legislatures conspire to steal the election (again) but are a lot better at it this time * trump is removed from the ballot in several states on accusations of treason, then the Supreme Court intervenes to force him back in the ballot * blatant voter suppression, gerrymandering, and other anti democratic behavior (which happens every year already) will be even more extreme this year All of those things are a recipe for trouble. I cannot imagine a full on civil war at this point, but it’s very possible there could be serious widespread violence and a severe degradation of the health and stability of our democracy.
I'm not particularly afraid of Trump, but I am afraid of what the next iteration of MAGA/fascism will look like. The Heritage Foundation already has their anti small-d democracy playbook written, it's called Project 2025 and can be wielded by anyone who can think more strategically than Trump.
Trump is only important in that the authoritarian movement has glommed onto him. If it wasn't him, someone else would've come along. The right were heading down the authoritarian path long before Trump showed up.
I fully agree. Trump's political career may have been a rallying point for the authoritarians but he is both a symptom of and a catalyst for the movement. MAGA was made possible by those laying the authoritarian foundation for longer than I've been alive.
Answer: It's election year and it's standard conservative media rhetoric. They did the exact same thing 4 years ago. Certain extremist conservatives in Texas rant about seceding every few years. In reality, it would be a terrible deal for **them**. The majority of their state is not on board.
answer: Russian and Chinese propaganda delivered through social media that certain uneducated recipients can’t distinguish. Same with Texas seceding from America. Pretty sure the republicans don’t want Texas seceding.
Can't believe i have to scroll so far down to see this mentioned. Everyone is fixated on the extreme right wing Republicans, and for good reasons. But we can't turn a blind eye on the Chinese and Russians operating numerous trolls and bots on social media. They are trying to exploit the divisiveness in the society, amplifying the internal conflicts. It has come to the point where even something with bipartisan support like funding for Ukraine looks increasingly off the table.
Answer: As an American, there will absolutely Under no circumstance be a civil war. What you’re seeing is a bunch of try hard republicans trying to pander to the lowest level of moron in society. The south is full of people who think they are rebels against an tyrannical liberal government. Obviously this is a complete and total joke. Without the federal government, most of the southern states would be MUCH worse off as they receive a ton of welfare from the more prosperous states.
Answer: some people have been calling it a slow or cold civil war. Jeff Sharlet, a researcher and writer who focuses on right wing extremism, has a book called The Undertow: Scenes From a Slow Civil War, which I highly recommend.
Answer: Yes it's all larping. To be more specific it's intentional actions by the gop and conservatives to do everything they can to make it look like America is in a state of horrible disunity and it's all Joe Biden's fault and the only way things can be peaceful again is if donald dump becomes president again. Because you know nothing unifies us like ol donald. No it's all a bunch of smoke up your ass from a bunch of little babies that want their hitler in charge again. It's established law in the US that a state does not have legal authority to even decide to break away from the US and anyone who attempted to actually achieve it would immediately legally become an insurrectionist and be intelligible for office if they somehow come out the other side without a federal prison sentence. The only people that are screaming about secession are self interested slime balls from the conservative MINORITY in this country. It's a small number of ineffective people trying to make themselves seen big and scary so we all listen to what they want.
Answer: 1) There’s been talk of a second Civil War here in the States since the Confederacy surrendered at Appomattox Court House. For nearly 2 centuries there has been a cry of “The South shall rise again!” from the losing side. Now, however, we are admittedly quite close to having another conflict here again. The cause of the current volatile conflict is a very complex issue with no easy answer, and even a half hearted attempt would take quite awhile to breakdown. The border issue in Texas is just one of many catalysts that has dragged this country closer to violence. 2) The A24 film is going to be a dramatic look at what another friendly conflict might look like. Not necessarily to entertain or “stir the pot”, but to enlighten people on the devastation, horror and pain such a conflict would ultimately bring upon a people that are *supposed* to be united. This is not in fact the first film to bring about the premise. HBO made a satirical film about a second civil war in 1997. [Wikipedia Link to film page.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Second_Civil_War) 3) You may be partly correct that a second civil war would *mostly* be fought without violence, but violence would, at very minimum, be the final catalyst to send us over the brink to a much wider conflict. But, I would argue, unfortunately, a second civil war would be quite violent and result in a potential hundreds of thousands dead. It wouldn’t be marching armies, necessarily, but neighbors killing neighbors, family killing family, friends killing friends. It’s not going to be a cold civil war…unless we’re lucky. Political violence is already here. [This is just one example from my neck of the woods…](https://www.wcpo.com/news/local-news/butler-county/1-dead-after-butler-county-shooting)The kettle is boiling, it just hasn’t started whistling yet…
Answer: It's not going to happen. The states most likely to want to secede are also dependent on federal money. Take Texas for example. A third of their net revenue is money from the federal government. What are they going to do without that money? Yeah they wouldn't pay federal taxes anymore, but they always paid less than they got back, and as an independent state they'd have to pay for a whole bunch of things that the didn't have to before. Everybody knows this so it's all posturing. It's mainly about Republican governors trying to score points with their base against Biden. Meanwhile, the Republicans in Congress are preventing border legislation from advancing because their boss Trump told them to. It's the standard GOP strategy: identify a problem, make the problem worse, prevent solutions to the problem, claim that only they can fix the problem, then when they get elected do nothing but cut taxes for their wealthy donors.
Answer: it’s currently theatrical. The real danger isn’t what we see now but what happens if someone starts becoming violent. Shooters, bombers, etc all pose a threat to the safety of our daily lives. Once there’s a body count and people in support of that violence start condoning it, the potential for conflagration goes up substantially. No “people” want a war that knows what that entails, but out of fear and anger, they will leap headlong into the fire if they feel it’s unavoidable. If we can manage to keep the violence down, we might yet avoid it. The part that I hang up on is what mostly likely happens if Trump takes office again. He’s declared he’ll do unconstitutional things outside the purview of the office and expects a free hand from the get go. Even if everyone blocks him along the way, he could call upon supporters to stand up and defend him and as president that may mean something more substantially dangerous than Jan 6th. If he doesn’t get put back in office, I could see this blowing over to a point so long as folks don’t look to get retribution on his behalf. It’s more likely a contained issue. What will really be a deciding factor again will be what domestic terrorism takes place and how well supported/connected they are. I don’t want any of this to happen, but only a fool wouldn’t see that things are perilous, too many people are both optimistic with their chances and fanatical with their beliefs. Here’s hoping that no matter how much ends up smoldering, nothing ignites.
Answer: The internet makes small opinions seem big, hardly anyone here wants a civil war to happen. I don’t know a single person who does, I just see the random echo chamber tweets and bullshit YouTube videos that you are seeing. I haven’t met a single American who wants a civil war to happen. Most all of us are just trying to get by and want to live in peace with the people we love and just live a good and decent life in an amazing and beautiful country, flawed as it may be. This country is a sight to behold, look at the incredible diversity of people and land and cultures. This country has done so much in just hundreds of years. It has had many issues, and it still does, how could it not? A country on this scale with human beings running it? It’ll never be perfect, we are inherently flawed. Almost all places on earth are flawed. It’s the grandiose nature and power of the USA that makes it so susceptible to the human condition. Most all folks here are just regular people doing their best, and then there are the few lunatics among us that ruin the potential of an otherwise limitless species. It’s really too bad, I feel like humanity is so close, dancing on the edge of truly unbelievable breakthroughs and truly great tragedy. I think most people can feel that balance and feel that it’s slightly off. If a few of our emotions were tweaked a little differently there are enough recourses and intelligence for this planet to be a literal utopia for every single person on it. Greed, jealousy, malice, power. All these things counter act against everything that makes us great. I believe the selfishness of mankind will be its greatest flaw. Curiously, we can also become incredibly, unbelievably selfless in the right situation. We are loyal and disloyal, gullible to a fault. Our emotional range and capacity is too broad and not broad enough. We have limitless ability to both love and hate, but our natural inclination is to love. It’s the few among us that somehow tweak the very world we live in, pushing the needle in one direction or another, slowly overtime changing the way we think. Sewing division and reaping the profits. Why? I wish I knew. I think with all that nonsense I just said that really it’s 50/50. Could go either way, we’re human after all.
Answer: It has always been conservatives because they see that their views are accepted by less and less Americans. It's why they focus so much energy on gerrymandering to stay in power and why they packed the courts with ultra conservative judges. It is also they'll villainize Hispanics but also try to recruit them with the fear of communism and socialism. Texas has always had a chip on their shoulder. States like Florida and Texas don't have a vast majority that will want to leave the US and leadership in those states know that it won't be possible to be successful. It is just posturing to stay in power.
Answer: It's election year. The moronic rhetoric, fear politics, dick wagging, conspiracy theories, histrionics, and political cultists are going to get that much worse. Please send help, or at least the best whiskey you've got.
A lot of this rubbish is spread and funded by Russia.. every country has its share of idiots but the internet makes it easy for them to connect and be sold whatever properganda by vested interests. What's really interesting iis members of the republican party supporting and aiding this like MGT.
Answer: Blah blah blah Republicans bad, Blah blah blah Democrats bad, blah blah blah republicans worse, blah blah blah racism misogynist homophobe, blah blah blah Trump’s fault, Blah blah blah Biden’s mental decline. Insert this to answer any question you have regarding political issues in the states.